id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-325045-ak7rouhb	Sotgiu, Giovanni	Advanced forecasting of SARS‐CoV‐2‐related deaths in Italy, Germany, Spain, and New York State	2020-05-11		.txt	text/plain	718	37	52	Based on this model, we aimed at predicting SARS-Cov-2-related mortality in Italy, 7 Germany, 8 Spain, 9 and New York State. 10 To validate the model, we calculated R 2 correlations for Italy (0.995), Germany (0.996), Spain (0.988), and New York State (0.998) after 30, 18, 11, and 10 days of prediction, respectively, thus confirming the reliability of our modeling approach during the first month of this outbreak in each of these countries ( Figure 1A) . Instead, the expected SARS-Cov-2related mortality is more closely related to early events within the first days of the outbreak and to timing to regional/national interventions (eg, social distancing, confinement), which suggests that superspreading events (eg Lombardia region, Italy) deeply impact on the magnitude of the curve and, in turn, on the number of deaths. Figure 1B illustrates the curves of the expected deaths based on daily peak after 28 and 21 days in Italy, Germany, Spain, and New York State.	./cache/cord-325045-ak7rouhb.txt	./txt/cord-325045-ak7rouhb.txt