id author title date pages extension mime words sentences flesch summary cache txt cord-320912-jfeu4tho Fukui, M. Power Laws in Superspreading Events: Evidence from Coronavirus Outbreaks and Implications for SIR Models 2020-06-12 .txt text/plain 11777 786 59 This paper documents evidence from recent coronavirus outbreaks, including SARS, MERS, and COVID-19, that SSEs follow a power law distribution with fat tails, or infinite variance. We then extend an otherwise standard SIR model with estimated power law distributions, and show that idiosyncratic uncertainties in SSEs will lead to large aggregate uncertainties in infection dynamics, even with large populations. . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.11.20128058 doi: medRxiv preprint Figure 3 plots the predicted ranking of infection cases given the estimated negative binomial (NB) distribution, in addition to the log-log plots and estimated power law (PL) distributions. The mean is set to the same value as power law case, R 0 = 2.5, Figure 4a shows 10 sample paths of infected population generated through the simulation of the model with α = 1.1. ./cache/cord-320912-jfeu4tho.txt ./txt/cord-320912-jfeu4tho.txt