id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-314960-f4hj35dr	Kissler, Stephen M	Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the post-pandemic period	2020-03-06		.txt	text/plain	6253	375	52	To quantify the relative contribution of immunity versus seasonal forcing on the transmission dynamics of the betacoronaviruses, we adopted a regression model (22) that expressed the effective reproduction number for each strain (HKU1 and OC43) as the product of a baseline transmissibility constant (related to the basic reproduction number and the proportion of the population susceptible at the start of the season), the depletion of susceptibles due to infection with the same strain, the depletion of susceptibles due to infection with the other strain, and a spline to capture further unexplained seasonal variation in transmission strength (seasonal forcing). https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.04.20031112 doi: medRxiv preprint infection due to SARS-CoV-2, and autumn establishments and smaller seasonal fluctuations in transmissibility were associated with larger pandemic peak sizes. Peak simulated SARS-CoV-2 epidemic sizes, in units of percent influenza-like illness (ILI) x percent positive laboratory tests, by year for a representative set of cross immunities, immunity durations, and establishment times.	./cache/cord-314960-f4hj35dr.txt	./txt/cord-314960-f4hj35dr.txt