id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-301292-yaii6e16	Kuk, Anthony Y. C.	The estimation of SARS incubation distribution from serial interval data using a convolution likelihood	2005-07-12		.txt	text/plain	4354	252	60	By constructing a convolution likelihood based on the serial interval data, we are able to estimate the incubation distribution which is assumed to be Weibull, and justifications are given to support this choice over other distributions. The indirect estimate obtained using the method of convolution likelihood is validated by means of comparison with a direct estimate obtained directly from a subset of patients for whom the incubation time can be ascertained. Despite its name, the proposed indirect estimate is actually more precise than the direct estimate because serial interval data are recorded for almost all patients, whereas exact incubation times can be determined for only a small subset. By constructing a convolution likelihood based on the serial interval data in Singapore, we are able to estimate the incubation distribution parametrically. It is possible to obtain a combined estimate that makes use of the incubation times for the 50 patients in the ascertained subset and the serial intervals for the remaining 148 cases.	./cache/cord-301292-yaii6e16.txt	./txt/cord-301292-yaii6e16.txt