# pos

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pos: NNP
token:
  https://www.wcvb.com/article/massachusetts-coronavirus-reporting-delay-due-to-quest-lab-itglitch/32288903

lemma:
  https://www.wcvb.com/article/massachusetts-coronavirus-reporting-delay-due-to-quest-lab-itglitch/32288903


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  Chapter 14 Time Series Understanding Changes Over Time Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root Study of ARIMA


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  Academic Emotions in Students Self Regulated Learning and Achievement A Program of Qualitative and Quantitative Research Emotions


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  Escherichia coli K 12 DNA Mismatch Repair and Mutation Avoidance Pathways Selection against Dam Methylation Sites


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  a Single Stranded DNA Virus Evolution and Resistance A Constant Rate of Spontaneous Mutation in DNA Based Microbes Suppression of Chemical Mutagenesis in Bacteriophage T4 by Genetically Modified DNA Polymerases Rates of Evolutionary Change


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  Intrinsic Fidelity of Retroviral Reverse Transcriptases Mismatch Repair in Replication Fidelity Genetic Recombination


id: cord-256201-vjzfzshh
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  Antimutators A New Strategy to Study the Nature and Origin of Spontaneous Mutations Spontaneous Mutant Frequency


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  Mutagenesis Evidence for Proofreading and Potential Therapeutics Evolution of High Mutation Rates in Experimental Populations of E coli


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  the Belgian COVID 19 Epidemic Mathematical Models of Contact Patterns Between Age Groups for Predicting the Spread of Infectious Diseases Monitoring Trends and Differences


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  German Hospitals an Observational Study Efficient Estimation of Age Specific Social Contact Rates Between Men and Women


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entity:
  The Injurious Effects of Elevated or Nonelevated Respiratory Rate during Mechanical Ventilation Mechanism


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entity:
  the U K to Action The New York Times Global Covid 19 Case Fatality Rates Internet Oxford Centre for Evidence Based Medicine CEBM


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entity:
  Korea Korean Society for Antimicrobial Therapy Korean Society for Healthcare associated Infection Control and Prevention


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  Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network Centers for Disease Control and Prevention CDC Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network FoodNet


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  the United States Department of Agriculture USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture NIFA Cooperative State Research Education and Extension Service


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  Ecuador 18 Peru 16 6 Chile 15 5 Mexico 8 8 Iran 7 9 Qatar 7 3 Spain 7 1 USA 5 3 UK 5 2 and Netherlands 4 8 See Figure 1 B


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type: DNA
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  coronavirus covid 19 3 https www cdc gov coronavirus 2019 ncov cases updates previous testing in us html 4 See e g https www wcvb com article massachusetts coronavirus reporting delay due to quest lab itglitch 32288903 CC BY ND 4 0 International license


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  RAW DataCmltInfection RAW DataCmltDeath RAW Units Person Day RAW DataFlowInfection RAW DataFlowDeath RAW DataTestRate RAW Units Person Day Cumulative Confirmed Cases New Testing Time Units Person Day DataLimitFromTime


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  Untested Symptomatic Multiplier Transmission Risk for Asymptomatic Net Baseline Transmission Multiplier


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entity:
  Hospital Rgn Tested Cumulative Deaths of Confirmed Untreated Cumulative Deaths of Confirmed Untreated Rgn INTEG Deaths


id: cord-284945-837qlk8y
type: ORG
entity:
  Symptomatic Untested Rgn sum Hospitalized Infectious Deaths Tested Untreated Resolution Rgn Fatality Rate Untreated Post Detection Phase Resolution Time Fatality Rate Untreated Delay Order 1


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entity:
  Recovered Unconfirmed Rgn Cumulative Recovered at Hospitals Rgn Notest Baseline Daily Fraction Susceptible


id: cord-284945-837qlk8y
type: ORG
entity:
  Detection Delay Post Detection Phase Resolution Time Incubation Period Units Day Total Simulated Tests Rgn Post Mortem Tests Total Rgn Testing on Living Total Test on Covid Patients Rgn Max 0 min Positive Candidates


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type: ORG
entity:
  Untested Symptomatic Relative Risk of Transmission by Presymptomatic 1 Total Asymptomatic Fraction Net Rgn Total Asymptomatic Fraction Net Rgn Baseline Risk of Transmission


id: cord-284945-837qlk8y
type: ORG
entity:
  Asymptomatic Rgn Relative Risk of Transmission by Presymptomatic Units dmnl Active Test Rate Rgn Units


id: cord-284945-837qlk8y
type: ORG
entity:
  Limited Activities Rgn exp Sensitivity of Contact Reduction to Utility Net Rgn Fractional Value of Limited Activities


id: cord-349548-loi1vs5y
type: GGP
entity:
  Secs V and VI we show how marginal stability can be achieved while simultaneously measuring the effects of a particular set of restrictions We claim that statistically randomized testing can be used in a smart way so as to keep the dynamics of the pandemics under control as per the feedback loop of Fig 1 We emphasize that this is possible without the current time delays of up to 14 days The latter arises since we only observe confirmed infections stemming from a highly biased test group that eventually shows symptoms long after the initial infection has occurred The idea of smart testing is the following One regularly tests randomized people 4 for infectiousness 5 We stress that randomized testing is essential to obtain information on the current number of infections and its evolution with time It serves an additional and entirely different purpose


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type: FAC
entity:
  angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitory peptides Association of angiotensin converting enzyme insertion


id: cord-015368-a0qz4tb9
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entity:
  VEGF bFGF IGF EGF Heparin Endothelial Cell Growth Supplement and 10 Fetal Calf Serum Expression of endothelial cell surface markers CD31 CD34 CD62e CD54


id: cord-015368-a0qz4tb9
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entity:
  NCB PH plate Zimmer Company Winterthur Switzerland In 16 cases 46 osteoporosis had been diagnosed preoperatively Radiological follow up in two planes and functional outcome is assessed clinically ROM


id: cord-015368-a0qz4tb9
type: GGP
entity:
  mellitus p ¼ 0 001 OR 1 884 peripheral artery disease p ¼ 0 003 OR 1 979 cardiogenic Shock p ¼ 0 043 OR 2 957 congestive heart failure p ¼ 0 013 OR 1 601 und emergent surgery p ¼ 0 001 OR 3 032 were predictive for development of ARF Preoperative serum creatinine


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entity:
  behandelbar ist sollte durch Klärung ihrer Ä tiologie eine Prävention dafür möglich werden da diese Kinder wegen ihrer kritischen Voraussetzung bereits


id: cord-015368-a0qz4tb9
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  Hirschsprung s disease G Schimpl Background Whereas in the past various operative techniques in patients with Hirschsprung s disease HD


id: cord-015368-a0qz4tb9
type: FAC
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  M Tomka A Baumann P Konstantiniuk T Ott T Cohnert Division of Vascular Surgery Department of Surgery Medical University of Graz Graz Austria Background Seventeen percent


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type: CHEMICAL
entity:
  werden Zur Behandlung stehen 2 grundsätzlich differente Vorgehensweisen zur Verfügung Im Vordergrund steht eine Resektion


id: cord-015368-a0qz4tb9
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entity:
  left thorax pneumothorax lesions of the diaphragm left third of the transversal colon and neck lesions


id: cord-022583-9lmudxrh
type: PROTEIN
entity:
  Kap 5 20 Hautschutzpräparate werden bereits vor dem Kontakt mit Wasser und Desinfektionsmitteln aufgetragen Hautpflegeprodukte


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entity:
  einem 3D Modell der Haut beim Vergleich äquimolarer Wirkstoffkonzentrationen CHX überlegen Für epidermal gebundenes CHX


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  dass OCT haltige alkoholische Formulierungen auch bei Anwendung auf der Haut die Wirksamkeit von CHX erreichen bzw übertreffen Hübner Siebert und Kramer 2010 Auch bezüglich der Biokompatibilität war OCT überlegen Müller und Kramer 2008 In zwei bisher durchgeführten klinischen Studien bei nicht getunnelten ZVK


id: cord-022583-9lmudxrh
type: PROTEIN
entity:
  Zubereitungen mit Gehalt von 0 1 Polihexanid oder 1 25 PVP Iod Allerdings liegen hierzu keine Studien vor Da


id: cord-022583-9lmudxrh
type: PROTEIN
entity:
  zusammen mit der potenziell infektiösen Wäsche gewaschen werden Infektiöse Wäsche stammt von Infektionsstationen


id: cord-022583-9lmudxrh
type: PROTEIN
entity:
  Endkonzentrationen von 0 05 0 5 zur Virus und Toxininaktivierung bei der Impfstoffherstellung eingesetzt Der MAK Wert wird derzeit bei 0 3 ml m 3 angesetzt


id: cord-022583-9lmudxrh
type: PROTEIN
entity:
  nicht mehr zu empfehlen Das gilt auch für den Rettungsdienst Glutaral Glutaraldehyd wirkt besser sporozid als Formaldehyd und wird deshalb


id: cord-022583-9lmudxrh
type: PROTEIN
entity:
  nach Verbrauch durch organische Substanz zurückbleibenden Konzentration des Restchlors verfügbares freies Chlors ausgegangen werden


id: cord-022583-9lmudxrh
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entity:
  Bereichen zu betrachten Metallsalze Silber und manche Zinnsalze wirken mikrobiozid Quecksilber und Kupfersalze vorwiegend mikrobiostatisch Silbersalze sind nur bei unsachgemäßer Anwendung Gefahr der Argyrose toxisch können aber


id: cord-022583-9lmudxrh
type: PROTEIN
entity:
  durch UVStrahlen Diese Methode ist nur unter streng definierten standardisierten Bedingungen zuverlässig und auf sehr umschriebene Anwendungen beschränkt z B Entkeimung von Werkbänken


id: cord-022583-9lmudxrh
type: PROTEIN
entity:
  Kriterien zur Beurteilung der Gefährlichkeit bestimmter Infektionsüberträger und Beispiele finden sich in Tab 2 15 Die Desinfektion von Händen Instrumenten


id: cord-022583-9lmudxrh
type: PROTEIN
entity:
  nicht aus dem Raum herausnehmbarer Geräte und des Inventars mit sterilen OP Tüchern die Raumluftqualität von Reinraumklasse C zu Reinraumklasse B


id: cord-022583-9lmudxrh
type: PROTEIN
entity:
  diesen Wert ist experimentell nicht zu erbringen er kann nur durch Extrapolation der Überlebenskurve ermittelt werden Die folgende


id: cord-022583-9lmudxrh
type: PROTEIN
entity:
  mehr Aufmerksamkeit zu schenken ist Strobel 2002 beschreibt postoperativ eine Reizung der Augenvorderkammer die durch Endotoxineinbringung ausgehend


id: cord-022583-9lmudxrh
type: PROTEIN
entity:
  nicht und vor allem nicht unmittelbar reversibel ist Trotzdem kann ein sorgsamer Umgang mit Antibiotika den Selektionsdruck reduzieren und die Resistenzsituation positiv beeinflussen Antibiotic Stewardship zielt auf eine verbesserte Qualität der Antibiotikatherapie Sie soll für den einzelnen Patienten bei minimaler Toxizität und Resistenzentwicklung das bestmögliche klinische Behandlungsergebnis erreichen Eine gute Antibiotikaverordnungspraxis umfasst z B


id: cord-022583-9lmudxrh
type: PROTEIN
entity:
  nicht mehr zur Therapie verwendet werden Die Autoren sind der Ansicht dass eine infektionspräventive Maßnahme nur dann sinnvoll ist


id: cord-022583-9lmudxrh
type: PROTEIN
entity:
  Ja Ja Gleichzeitige Wundinfektion Ja Männliches Geschlecht Ja Frühzeitige Reoperation Ja Bei neurochirurgischen Eingriffen wird


id: cord-022583-9lmudxrh
type: DNA
entity:
  den Folgen Leberzirrhose hepatozelluläres Karzinom Lam Gotsch und Langan 2010 Die HBs Antigen Mutterschaftsrichtlinien bzw Antikörperbestimmung und weitere Antigensuche im letzten


id: cord-022583-9lmudxrh
type: PROTEIN
entity:
  von Antibiotika zur Prophylaxe bakterieller Infektionen bei Patienten mit Chemotherapie bedingter Neutropenie


id: cord-022583-9lmudxrh
type: PROTEIN
entity:
  Jahre zurückliegenden Grundimmunisierung gegen Diphtherie und Tetanus eine Boosterimpfung aus Cave Pertussis nicht vergessen Mindestabstände zwischen den Impfungen sind jedoch entsprechend Fachinformation einzuhalten Die Impfung ist einschließlich Chargen Nummer


id: cord-022583-9lmudxrh
type: PROTEIN
entity:
  Zahnärztliche Betreuung von Patienten mit tumortherapeutischer Kopf Hals Bestrahlung Stellungnahme der DGZMK und DEGRO Strahlentherapie und


id: cord-022583-9lmudxrh
type: CELL_LINE
entity:
  multicenter Ostdeutsche Studiengruppe Hamato Onkologie OSHO 53 phase II study Biological toxicity of acid


id: cord-022583-9lmudxrh
type: GGP
entity:
  zunehmender Anteil von SSI z B durch Cefazolin resistente Staphylokokken verursacht wird muss der Auswahl des Antibiotikums für die PAP durch eine regelmäßige interdisziplinäre Überprüfung des hausinternen Standards Rechnung getragen werden Norton et


id: cord-022583-9lmudxrh
type: GGP
entity:
  Hinblick auf Gewebespiegel scheint Konsens zu bestehen dass zur Prophylaxe eine etwas höhere Dosierung z B 1 2 g Amoxicillin p o als Einmalgabe sinnvoll erscheint und zwar vor dem Eingriff Steinberg


id: cord-022583-9lmudxrh
type: GGP
entity:
  Kleiderlausbefall Sie ist mit 1 25 2 mm die kleinste Laus des Menschen und hat eine gedrungene Gestalt Filzläuse sind träger als Kopf


id: cord-022583-9lmudxrh
type: ORG
entity:
  Centers for Disease Control and Prevention CDC Checklist for Core Elements of Hospital Antibiotic Stewardship Programs


id: cord-022583-9lmudxrh
type: EVENT
entity:
  Determination of the Efficancy of Sterile Barrier Systems against Microbial Challanges During Transport and Storage


id: cord-022583-9lmudxrh
type: LAW
entity:
  Opinion of the Scientific Panel on Food Additives Flavourings Processing Aids and Materials in Contact with Food


id: cord-022583-9lmudxrh
type: ORG
entity:
  The Hospital Infection Control Practices Advisory Committee Center for Disease Control and Prevention Guidelines


id: cord-022583-9lmudxrh
type: ORG
entity:
  University of Minnesota Department of Food Science and Nutrition and School of Public Health Anaphylaxis


id: cord-022583-9lmudxrh
type: ORG
entity:
  the North American Prevention of Orthopaedic Implant Infection in Patients Undergoing Dental Procedures


id: cord-022583-9lmudxrh
type: CHEMICAL
entity:
  wurde nicht signifikant beeinflusst Damit waren keine eindeutigen epigenetischen Einflüsse nachweisbar Creppy


id: cord-022583-9lmudxrh
type: DISEASE
entity:
  aufstellen Die Reinigung eines Zimmers beginnt grundsätzlich mit der Müllentleerung dann erfolgt die


id: cord-022583-9lmudxrh
type: CHEMICAL
entity:
  Reinigung des Fußbodens Reini gungstuch immer 4 fach falten sobald eine Seite verschmutzt ist Reinigungstuch wenden und nächste saubere Seite verwenden Grundsätzlich sind Reinigungstätigkeiten


id: cord-022583-9lmudxrh
type: CHEMICAL
entity:
  sind sie häufig Ursache nosokomialer Virusinfektionen besitzen aber auch als Erreger von Reisediarrhöen und für alte Menschen hohe


id: cord-022583-9lmudxrh
type: CHEMICAL
entity:
  Familie zählen auch die humanen T Zell Leukämieviren Diese Viren werden sexuell und durch Blut Blut Kontakte übertragen und besitzen nur eine geringe Umweltresistenz Das darf aber nicht dazu


id: cord-022583-9lmudxrh
type: CHEMICAL
entity:
  sind gegen einige Erreger bei langsamem Wirkungseintritt wirksam gegen Mykobakterien sowie Bakteriensporen unwirksam Je größer das Molekül und


id: cord-022583-9lmudxrh
type: DISEASE
entity:
  deren Effektivität nur durch Anwendung validierter Verfahren und durch Überwachung von relevanten Prozessparametern die im Rahmen der Validierung definiert werden belegt werden kann Die Validierung soll dem MP


id: cord-022583-9lmudxrh
type: CHEMICAL
entity:
  werden Bei besonders schwerwiegenden Infektionskomplikationen z B nach intrakraniellem Eingriff wird


id: cord-022583-9lmudxrh
type: CHEMICAL
entity:
  Patienten mit Infektionsrisiken bei aseptischen Eingriffen von einer PAP profitieren Bei aseptischen Eingriffen mit


id: cord-022583-9lmudxrh
type: CHEMICAL
entity:
  Patienten berücksichtigt werden Einen Hinweis können Körpermasse Body Mass Index Einlagerungen Drainagen u a geben Eine Standarddosierung kann nur unter Idealbedingungen erfolgen Bei heute üblichen Substanzen sind häufig höhere


id: cord-022583-9lmudxrh
type: DISEASE
entity:
  postoperative Verlängerung der Prophylaxe ausbliebe Die Auswahl des Antibiotikums richtet sich nach dem erwarteten


id: cord-022583-9lmudxrh
type: CHEMICAL
entity:
  Patienten mit VP Shunt Infektion nach Explantation desselben eingesetzt wird haben ein substanzielles Risiko für


id: cord-022583-9lmudxrh
type: CHEMICAL
entity:
  Patienten mit Risikofaktoren Fluorchinolone nur noch einzusetzen wenn durch einen negativen Rektalabstrich eine fäkale Kolonisation mit


id: cord-022583-9lmudxrh
type: CHEMICAL
entity:
  Natrium 130 mEq l besteht die Empfehlung zur primären Antibiotikaprophylaxe Gerbes 2011 Runyon 2013 Tab 2 37 Patienten mit


id: cord-022583-9lmudxrh
type: DISEASE
entity:
  Darmflora die Kolonisation durch potenziell pathogene Mikroorganismen verhindern Demnach könnten durch


id: cord-022583-9lmudxrh
type: CHEMICAL
entity:
  Patienten mit Granulozytopenie Anwendung Entscheidende klinische Verbreitung erlangte das Verfahren seit Mitte


id: cord-022583-9lmudxrh
type: CHEMICAL
entity:
  bekannt sind je nach der Gefährlichkeit u U maximale Präventionsmaßnahmen ergriffen werden Ein Beispiel sind


id: cord-022583-9lmudxrh
type: CHEMICAL
entity:
  jedoch zu bedenken dass das Risiko für ein konnatales Varizellensyndrom bei einer seronegativen Schwangeren mit Kontakt zu


id: cord-022583-9lmudxrh
type: CHEMICAL
entity:
  des Impferfolgs erfolgen Allergien gegen Impfstoffbestandteile z B Neomycin Streptomycin Hühnerproteine sind


id: cord-022583-9lmudxrh
type: CHEMICAL
entity:
  nicht ohne gezielte Behandlung des Patienten beseitigt werden Hierzu werden primär Insektizide eingesetzt


id: cord-022583-9lmudxrh
type: DISEASE
entity:
  Effektivität der mechanischen Erregerverbreitung ist der Anpassungsgrad Synanthropiegrad eines Hygieneschädlings


id: cord-022633-fr55uod6
type: PROTEIN
entity:
  interleukin 6 IL 6 C reactive protein CRP tumor necrosis factor alpha TNF alpha vascular cell adhesion molecule VCAM E selectin lipoprotein


id: cord-022633-fr55uod6
type: GGP
entity:
  kappa 0 85 p 0 001 Conclusion Central and local adjudication resulted in significantly different rates of AMI and ACS


id: cord-022633-fr55uod6
type: GGP
entity:
  MAP p 0 01 but not in HR p 0 34 There was a significant difference p 0 023 in time to peak MAP in the ILE


id: cord-022633-fr55uod6
type: GGP
entity:
  Hospital 1 1 01 12 31 06 Brigham and Women s Hospital 1 1 01 12 31 06 Children s Hospital Boston 1 1 01 12 31 06 Hasbro Children s Hospital 1 1 04 12 31 09 We reviewed the medical records of all


id: cord-022633-fr55uod6
type: ORG
entity:
  the University of Pennsylvania Philadelphia PA 2 Cooper University Hospital Camden NJ Background Patients


id: cord-022633-fr55uod6
type: WORK_OF_ART
entity:
  A Randomized Controlled Feasibility Trial of Vacant Lot Greening to Reduce Crime and Increase Perceptions of Safety Eugenia C


id: cord-022633-fr55uod6
type: WORK_OF_ART
entity:
  Screening for Violence Identifies Young Adults at Risk for Return ED Visits for Injury Abigail Hankin Wei Brittany Meagley Debra Houry Emory University Atlanta GA Background Homicide


id: cord-022633-fr55uod6
type: ORG
entity:
  Impact of Emergency Physician Board Certification on Patient Perceptions of ED Care Quality Albert G Sledge


id: cord-022633-fr55uod6
type: WORK_OF_ART
entity:
  The Use of Ultrasound to Evaluate Traumatic Optic Neuropathy Benjamin Burt Lisa Montgomery Cynthia Garza Meissner Sanja


id: cord-022633-fr55uod6
type: WORK_OF_ART
entity:
  Adverse Effects Following Prehospital Use Of Ketamine By Paramedics Eric Ardeel Baylor College of Medicine


id: cord-022633-fr55uod6
type: DISEASE
entity:
  cardiopulmonary adverse event RR 1 08 95 CI 0 68 1 69 within 30 days The table tabulates interventions


id: cord-006854-o2e5na78
type: GGP
entity:
  n 13 11 9 p 0 05 and organ space infection n 0 0 0 vs n 2 1 8 p 0 05 respectively Conclusions A preoperative antimicrobial protocol using cefazolin metronidazole


id: cord-006854-o2e5na78
type: WORK_OF_ART
entity:
  Hrishikesh Salgaonkar Raquel Maia Lynette Loo Wee Boon Tan Sujith Wijerathne Davide Lomanto National University Hospital Singapore Laparoscopic repair of groin hernias


id: cord-006854-o2e5na78
type: ORG
entity:
  Minimally Invasive Management of Diaphragmatic Hernias After Esophagectomy A Case Report Introduction Esophagectomy


id: cord-006854-o2e5na78
type: ORG
entity:
  Masafumi Ohira Department of Gastroenterological Surgery Hokkaido University Graduate School of Medicine Background


id: cord-006854-o2e5na78
type: WORK_OF_ART
entity:
  S359 Augmenting Spatial Awareness in Laparoscopic Surgery by Immersive Holographic Mixed Reality Navigation


id: cord-006854-o2e5na78
type: WORK_OF_ART
entity:
  Ibrahim A Salama Professor Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery National Liver Institute Menoufia University Abstract Background Iatrogenic


id: cord-006854-o2e5na78
type: WORK_OF_ART
entity:
  S359 Taking the Training Wheels Off Transitioning from Robotic Assisted to Total Laparoscopic Whipple Introduction


id: cord-006854-o2e5na78
type: WORK_OF_ART
entity:
  The Effect of Peri operative Antibiotic Drug Class on the Resolution Rate of Hypertension After Roux


id: cord-006854-o2e5na78
type: ORG
entity:
  the American College of Surgeons the Academic Association of Surgery and the Society of American Gastrointestinal and Endoscopic Surgeons


id: cord-006854-o2e5na78
type: WORK_OF_ART
entity:
  Yoshiyuki Usui MD PhD Ichiro Akiyama MD PhD Hironori Kunisue MD PhD Hideaki Mori MD PhD Tetsuya Ota MD PhD Okayama Medical Center Background and Methods


id: cord-006854-o2e5na78
type: ORG
entity:
  Laparoscopic Antireflux Surgery for Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease Effectiveness and Economic Benefits Kyung Won Seo


id: cord-006854-o2e5na78
type: WORK_OF_ART
entity:
  The Essential Role of the Transcystic Duct Tube C Tube During Laparoscopic Common Bile Duct Exploration LCBDE Towakai Hospital Introduction Laparoscopic


id: cord-006854-o2e5na78
type: ORG
entity:
  Priscila R Armijo MD 1 Dmitry Oleynikov MD 1 Sages Robotic Task Force 2 1 University of Nebraska Medical Center 2


# url

id: cord-284945-837qlk8y
domain: www.wcvb.com
url:
  http://www.wcvb.com/article/massachusetts-coronavirus-reporting-delay-due-to-quest-lab-itglitch/32288903#


# bib

id: cord-000088-1xgjdhkx
title: Rooting human parechovirus evolution in time
author: Faria, Nuno R
date: 2009-07-15
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2723090/
doi: 10.1186/1471-2148-9-164
abstract:
  BACKGROUND: The Picornaviridae family contains a number of important pathogenic viruses, among which the recently reclassified human parechoviruses (HPeVs). These viruses are widespread and can be grouped in several types. Understanding the evolutionary history of HPeV could answer questions such as how long the circulating lineages last shared a common ancestor and how the evolution of this viral species is shaped by its population dynamics. Using both strict and relaxed clock Bayesian phylogenetics we investigated 1) the substitutions rates of the structural P1 and capsid VP1 regions and 2) evolutionary timescale of currently circulating HPeV lineages. RESULTS: Our estimates reveal that human parechoviruses exhibit high substitution rates for both structural P1 and capsid VP1 regions, respectively 2.21 × 10(-3 )(0.48 – 4.21 × 10(-3)) and 2.79 × 10(-3 )(2.05 – 3.66 × 10(-3)) substitutions per site per year. These are within the range estimated for other picornaviruses. By employing a constant population size coalescent prior, the date of the most recent common ancestor was estimated to be at around 1600 (1427–1733). In addition, by looking at the frequency of synonymous and non-synonymous substitutions within the VP1 gene we show that purifying selection constitutes the dominating evolutionary force leading to strong amino acid conservation. CONCLUSION: In conclusion, our estimates provide a timescale for the evolution of HPeVs and suggest that genetic diversity of current circulating HPeV types has arisen about 400 years ago.


id: cord-004157-osol7wdp
title: Estimating epidemic exponential growth rate and basic reproduction number
author: Ma, Junling
date: 2020-01-08
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6962332/
doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2019.12.009
abstract:
  The initial exponential growth rate of an epidemic is an important measure of the severeness of the epidemic, and is also closely related to the basic reproduction number. Estimating the growth rate from the epidemic curve can be a challenge, because of its decays with time. For fast epidemics, the estimation is subject to over-fitting due to the limited number of data points available, which also limits our choice of models for the epidemic curve. We discuss the estimation of the growth rate using maximum likelihood method and simple models.


id: cord-006854-o2e5na78
author: nan
date: 2018-04-20
txt: ./txt/cord-006854-o2e5na78.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-006854-o2e5na78.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7103183/
doi: 10.1007/s00464-018-6121-4
abstract: nan
summary:
  Totally Laparoscopic ALPPS Combined with the Microwave Ablation for a Patient with a Huge HCC Hua Zhang; Department of Hepatopancreatobiliary Surgery, West China Hospital, Sichuan University Introduction: Associating liver partition and portal vein ligation for staged hepatectomy (ALPPS) is a novel technique for resecting hepatic tumors that were previously considered unresectable due to the insufficient future liver remnant (FLR) which may result in postoperative liver failure (PLF). Not only does this case show that a large epiphrenic diverticulm can be successfully resected via the trans-abdominal laparoscopic approach, this case makes the argument that patients undergoing any minimally-invasive epiphrenic diverticulectomy and myotomy, with or without fundoplication, may be successfully managed with early post-operative contrast studies and dietary advancement, thus decreasing their length of hospitalization and overall cost of treatment. Introduction: There are reports of increased operative duration, blood loss and postoperative morbidity, caused by difficulties in obtaining good visualization and in controlling bleeding when laparoscopic resection is performed in obese patients with colon cancer.

title:
  Scientific Session of the 16th World Congress of Endoscopic Surgery, Jointly Hosted by Society of American Gastrointestinal and Endoscopic Surgeons (SAGES) & Canadian Association of General Surgeons (CAGS), Seattle, Washington, USA, 11–14 April 2018: Poster Abstracts


id: cord-007303-wuuhlowd
title: The Finnish Pension System and Its Future Challenges
author: Valkonen, Tarmo
date: 2020-04-01
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7110267/
doi: 10.1007/s10272-020-0877-1
abstract:
  A specific feature in the Finnish pension system is rule-based preparation for mortality change. The earned pension capital is adjusted to life expectancy and the lowest age limit of the flexible retirement age will be adapted so that the ratio of expected years in employment and retirement is fixed after year 2030.


id: cord-022583-9lmudxrh
title: Antimikrobielle und antiinfektiöse Maßnahmen
author: nan
date: 2016-07-29
txt: ./txt/cord-022583-9lmudxrh.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-022583-9lmudxrh.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7158349/
doi: 10.1016/b978-3-437-22312-9.00002-0
abstract: nan
summary:
  Wenn auch je nach eingesetzter Technologie und chemisch-physikalischen Möglichkeiten der beteiligten Komponenten (Material, Wirkstoff, Imprägnierungsverfahren) eine Wirksamkeit von Objekten durch Beschichtung oder Imprägnierung mit antimikrobiellen Stoffen gegen bestimmte Mikroorganismenspezies erzielt werden kann, ist die Bezeichnung "antimikrobiell" weder mit einer spezifischen Infektionsprävention verknüpft, noch liegen ihr einheitliche Kriterien zugrunde. Die immense sozioökonomische Bedeutung der sogenannten "Surgical Site Infections" (SSI) wird anhand bundesweit erhobener epidemiologischer Daten deutlich: In der nationalen Prävalenzstudie (2011) konnte zwar gezeigt werden, dass in Deutschland die Rate an nosokomialen Infektionen (NI) mit 3,4 % im europäischen Vergleich stabil niedrig ist (in Vergleichsstudien international zwischen 6,1 % und 9,3 %), letztlich aber doch bei 18 Mio. stationär behandelten Patienten im Jahr dementsprechend 400 000 NI auftreten. Die SSI-Rate wird für geschlossene Frakturen mit 1-5 % angegeben und erreicht bei offenen Frakturen abhängig vom Ausmaß der Gewebezerstörung eine Häufigkeit von bis zu 43 %.


id: cord-022633-fr55uod6
title: SAEM Abstracts, Plenary Session
author: nan
date: 2012-04-26
txt: ./txt/cord-022633-fr55uod6.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-022633-fr55uod6.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7159364/
doi: 10.1111/j.1553-2712.2012.01332.x
abstract: nan
summary:
  Staff satisfaction was evaluated through pre/ post-shift and study surveys; administrative data (physician initial assessment (PIA), length of stay (LOS), patients leaving without being seen (LWBS) and against medical advice [LAMA] ) were collected from an electronic, real-time ED information system. Communication Background: The link between extended shift lengths, sleepiness, and occupational injury or illness has been shown, in other health care populations, to be an important and preventable public health concern but heretofore has not been fully described in emergency medical services (EMS Objectives: To assess the effect of an ED-based computer screening and referral intervention for IPV victims and to determine what characteristics resulted in a positive change in their safety. Objectives: Using data from longitudinal surveys by the American Board of Emergency Medicine, the primary objective of this study was to evaluate if resident self-assessments of performance in required competencies improve over the course of graduate medical training and in the years following.


id: cord-024397-28qhdq16
author: SIRÉN, ANDERS
date: 2004-09-28
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7202275/
doi: 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2004.00024.x
title:
  Including Spatial Heterogeneity and Animal Dispersal When Evaluating Hunting: a Model Analysis and an Empirical Assessment in an Amazonian Community

abstract:
  Abstract: Hunting in tropical forests is typically most intense near human settlements, and this creates gradients of decreasing animal densities toward those settlements. Within the context of this spatial pattern, we evaluated the status of game in the hunting grounds of an indigenous community in eastern Ecuador. We constructed a spatially explicit model of hunter‐prey interactions that mimicked the hunting in the village and included realistic animal‐dispersal rules. We compared predictions from the model with distributions of animal harvest rates and catch per unit effort of 12 game species. Six species were overharvested in part or all of the area, and two other species were probably being overharvested, although high dispersal rates complicated the interpretation. We then compared our method with methods that have been used previously. We argue that because our method provides information about the spatial extent of overharvesting, it could be particularly useful in informing decision makers about where to establish no‐take areas and could therefore aid in improving the sustainability of hunting in tropical forests.


id: cord-031936-46mossbr
title: Italy: toward a growth-friendly fiscal reform
author: Andrle, Michal
date: 2020-09-16
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7492235/
doi: 10.1007/s40888-020-00198-1
abstract:
  Published in late 2017, the Italian medium-term fiscal plan aims to achieve structural balance by 2020, although concrete, high-quality measures to meet the target are yet to be specified. This paper seeks to contribute to the discussion by (1) assessing spending patterns to identify areas for savings; (2) evaluating the pension system; (3) analyzing the scope for revenue rebalancing; and (4) putting forward a package of spending cuts and tax rebalancing that is growth friendly and inclusive, could have limited near-term output costs, and would achieve a notable reduction in public debt over the medium term. Such a package could help the authorities balance the need to bring down public debt and, thus, reduce vulnerabilities while supporting the economic recovery.


id: cord-034436-yhb8m1si
title: Relation of Dietary Factors with Infection and Mortality Rates of COVID-19 across the World
author: Abdulah, Deldar Morad
date: 2020-07-04
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7597421/
doi: 10.1007/s12603-020-1512-3
abstract:
  OBJECTIVE: Poor dietary habits are considered to be the second-leading risk factors for mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in the world. Dietary patterns are different based on cultural, environmental, technological, and economic factors. Nutritional deficiencies of energy, protein, and specific micronutrients have been shown to contribute to depressed immune function and increased susceptibility to infections. We aimed to explore the relation of dietary factors with global infection and mortality rates of COVID-19 in this study. DESIGN: In the current ecological study, the countries that had national dietary data from the Global Dietary Databases of the United Nations and Coronavirus disease statistics from the World Health Organization (WHO) were included. The countries that had Coronavirus disease statistics from the WHO were consecutively checked for the recent data of the dietary factors. SETTING: World. PARTICIPANTS: 158 countries across the world. MEASUREMENTS: infection and mortality rates of COVID-19; dietary factors. RESULTS: The median crude infection and mortality rates by COVID-19 were 87.78 (IQR: 468.03) and 0.0015 (IQR: 0.0059), respectively. The two highest percentage of the crude infection rate were between 0 and 500 (75.9%) and 500–1000 (8.9%) per one million persons. The regression analysis showed that the crude infection rate has been increased by raising consuming fruits (Beta: 0.237; P=0.006) and calcium (Beta: 0.286; P=0.007) and was decreased with rising consuming beans and legumes (Beta: −0.145; P=0.038). The analysis showed that the crude mortality rate was increased by raising consuming sugar-sweetened beverages (Beta: 0.340; P<0.001). Whereas, the crude mortality rate by COVID-19 has been decreased by increasing fruits consuming (Beta: −0.226; P=0.047) and beans and legumes (Beta: −0.176; P=0.046). CONCLUSION: The present study showed the higher intake of fruits and sugar-sweetened beverages had a positive effect on infection and mortally rates by COVID-19, respectively. In contrast, the higher intake of beans and legumes had a negative effect on both increasing infection and mortality rates.


id: cord-048487-kamvao4b
title: Dating the time of viral subtype divergence
author: O'Brien, John D
date: 2008-06-09
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2443812/
doi: 10.1186/1471-2148-8-172
abstract:
  Precise dating of viral subtype divergence enables researchers to correlate divergence with geographic and demographic occurrences. When historical data are absent (that is, the overwhelming majority), viral sequence sampling on a time scale commensurate with the rate of substitution permits the inference of the times of subtype divergence. Currently, researchers use two strategies to approach this task, both requiring strong conditions on the molecular clock assumption of substitution rate. As the underlying structure of the substitution rate process at the time of subtype divergence is not understood and likely highly variable, we present a simple method that estimates rates of substitution, and from there, times of divergence, without use of an assumed molecular clock. We accomplish this by blending estimates of the substitution rate for triplets of dated sequences where each sequence draws from a distinct viral subtype, providing a zeroth-order approximation for the rate between subtypes. As an example, we calculate the time of divergence for three genes among influenza subtypes A-H3N2 and B using subtype C as an outgroup. We show a time of divergence approximately 100 years ago, substantially more recent than previous estimates which range from 250 to 3800 years ago.


id: cord-103576-g5de4fwj
title: Predicted Infection Risk via Aerosols
author: Kriegel, M.
date: 2020-10-12
txt: ./txt/cord-103576-g5de4fwj.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-103576-g5de4fwj.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: http://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.10.08.20209106v1?rss=1
doi: 10.1101/2020.10.08.20209106
summary:
  34 In order to perform an infection risk assessment for the airborne transmission in the far field 35 and to introduce appropriate preventive measures, it would be necessary to know the amount The so-called aerosols (liquid or solid particles in a dispersed phase with a fluid) as well as 50 droplets differ by size. In equation (3), the number of infectious persons (I), the quanta emission rate depending on 74 the activity (q), the pulmonary ventilation rate of exposed susceptible persons (Qb), the 75 duration of stay (t) and the volume flow of pathogen free air (Q) was used. To calculate the predicted 156 infection risk via aerosols (PIRA) in the far field of a room the concentration of quanta (c(t)) 157 and the respiratory rate (Qb) has to be known. To reduce the risk of infection via aerosols the necessary volume flow of virus-free air 327 depending on the exposure time can be seen in Figure 5 .

abstract:
  Currently, airborne transmission is seen as the most important transmission path for SARS-CoV-2. In this investigation, models of other researchers with the aim to predict an infection risk for exposed persons in a room through aerosols emitted by an infectious case-patient were extended. As a novelty parameters or boundary conditions, namely the non-stationarity of aerosol and the half life of aerosolized virus, were included and a new method for determining the quanta emission rate based on measurements of the particle emission rate and respiratory rate at different types of activities was implemented. As a second step, the model was applied to twelve outbreaks to compare the predicted infection risk with the observed attack rate. To estimate a 'credible interval' of the predicted infection risk the quanta emission rate, the respiratory rate as well as the air volume flow were varied. In nine out of twelve outbreaks, the calculated predicted infection risk via aerosols was found to be in the range the attack rate (with the variation of the boundary conditions) and reasons for the observed larger divergence were discussed. The validation was considered successful and therefore, the use of the model could be recommended to predict the risk of an infection via aerosols in given situations. Furthermore, appropriate preventive measures can be designed.


id: cord-125295-p7q9t1se
title: Unequal Impact and Spatial Aggregation Distort COVID-19 Growth Rates
author: Burghardt, Keith
date: 2020-04-27
txt: ./txt/cord-125295-p7q9t1se.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-125295-p7q9t1se.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12994v2.pdf
doi: nan
summary:
  Using confirmed infections and deaths data from a variety of sources around U.S. and the world, we show that the impact of COVID-19 is highly unequal, with hot spots emerging at multiple spatial scales (3): from individual facilities (4) and city neighborhoods (5) , to U.S. counties and states (6) , to nations (7) . To better understand aggregation bias, we create a simple stochastic model that is variant of a Reed-Hughes mechanism (8), with synthetic communities in which the disease arrives at different times and grows at different rates. The size of the outbreak is highly correlated with the growth rate in the subregion; therefore, when the synthetic data is aggregated to simulate state or national statistics, these hot spots systematically amplify the estimated growth rates, much like what is observed empirically. These hot spots bias aggregated growth rates COVID-19 statistics, making the disease appear to grow faster at a larger scale than it does within the constituent communities.

abstract:
  The COVID-19 pandemic has emerged as a global public health crisis. To make decisions about mitigation strategies and to understand the disease dynamics, policy makers and epidemiologists must know how the disease is spreading in their communities. We analyze confirmed infections and deaths over multiple geographic scales to show that COVID-19's impact is highly unequal: many subregions have nearly zero infections, and others are hot spots. We attribute the effect to a Reed-Hughes-like mechanism in which disease arrives at different times and grows exponentially. Hot spots, however, appear to grow faster than neighboring subregions and dominate spatially aggregated statistics, thereby amplifying growth rates. The staggered spread of COVID-19 can also make aggregated growth rates appear higher even when subregions grow at the same rate. Public policy, economic analysis and epidemic modeling need to account for potential distortions introduced by spatial aggregation.


id: cord-133468-fkwtgq69
title: When to Relax Social Distancing Measures? An ARIMA Based Forecasting Study
author: Hariharan, Ramya
date: 2020-10-15
url: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2010.10587v1.pdf
doi: nan
abstract:
  The spread of the novel coronavirus across various countries is wide and rapid. The number of confirmed cases and the reproduction number are some of the epidemiological parameters utilized in scientific studies for the analysis and prediction of the viral transmission. The positive rate, an indicator on the extent of testing the population, aids in understanding the severity of the infection in a given geographic location. The positive rate for selected countries has been considered in this study to construct ARIMA based statistical models. The goodness of fit of the models are verified by the investigation of residuals, Box-Luang test and the forecast error values. The positive rates forecasted by the ARIMA models are utilized to investigate the scope for implementation of relaxations in social distancing measures in some countries and the necessity to tighten the rules further in some other countries.


id: cord-147202-clje3b2r
title: SEIRD Model for Qatar Covid-19 Outbreak: A Case Study
author: Ghanam, Ryad
date: 2020-05-26
txt: ./txt/cord-147202-clje3b2r.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-147202-clje3b2r.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.12777v1.pdf
doi: nan
summary:
  This work provides a tutorial on building a compartmental model using Susceptibles, Exposed, Infected, Recovered and Deaths status through time. Figure shows the plots of the Active Infections, Recovered and Deaths data for Qatar for the days since February . In addition to changes in infection rates α, impulse functions can be used to model dramatic one time shifts in transitions between states. Recall that β A is associated with the Dirac delta function for impulse to model the jump in transition rate from Exposed to Infected at day . Figure shows the model ts for Active Infections, Recovered and Deaths with posterior predictive bands. This work has demonstrated how to build a SEIRD model for the Covid-outbreak in the State of Qatar, include interventions, estimate model parameters and generate posterior predictive intervals using a Bayesian framework.

abstract:
  The Covid-19 outbreak of 2020 has required many governments to develop mathematical-statistical models of the outbreak for policy and planning purposes. This work provides a tutorial on building a compartmental model using Susceptibles, Exposed, Infected, Recovered and Deaths status through time. A Bayesian Framework is utilized to perform both parameter estimation and predictions. This model uses interventions to quantify the impact of various government attempts to slow the spread of the virus. Predictions are also made to determine when the peak Active Infections will occur.


id: cord-151183-o06mwd4d
title: Projected Development of COVID-19 in Louisiana
author: Tam, Ka-Ming
date: 2020-04-06
url: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.02859v1.pdf
doi: nan
abstract:
  At the time of writing, Louisiana has the third highest COVID-19 infection per capita in the United States. The state government issued a stay-at-home order effective March 23rd. We analyze the projected spread of COVID-19 in Louisiana without including the effects of the stay-at-home order. We predict that a large fraction of the state population would be infected without the mitigation efforts, and would certainly overwhelm the capacity of Louisiana health care system. We further predict the outcomes with different degrees of reduction in the infection rate. More than 70% of reduction is required to cap the number of infected to under one million.


id: cord-156320-xwuz4ma2
title: Heart Rate Estimation from Face Videos for Student Assessment: Experiments on edBB
author: Hernandez-Ortega, Javier
date: 2020-06-01
url: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.00825v1.pdf
doi: nan
abstract:
  In this study we estimate the heart rate from face videos for student assessment. This information could be very valuable to track their status along time and also to estimate other data such as their attention level or the presence of stress that may be caused by cheating attempts. The recent edBBplat, a platform for student behavior modelling in remote education, is considered in this study1. This platform permits to capture several signals from a set of sensors that capture biometric and behavioral data: RGB and near infrared cameras, microphone, EEG band, mouse, smartwatch, and keyboard, among others. In the experimental framework of this study, we focus on the RGB and near-infrared video sequences for performing heart rate estimation applying remote photoplethysmography techniques. The experiments include behavioral and physiological data from 25 different students completing a collection of tasks related to e-learning. Our proposed face heart rate estimation approach is compared with the heart rate provided by the smartwatch, achieving very promising results for its future deployment in e-learning applications.


id: cord-167157-z0lvcb3z
title: Controlling the Hidden Growth of COVID-19
author: Wang, Xiubin Bruce
date: 2020-05-19
url: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.09769v1.pdf
doi: nan
abstract:
  The COVID-19 pandemic has plagued the world for months. The U.S. has taken measures to counter it. On a daily basis, newly confirmed cases have been reported. In the early days, these numbers showed an increasing trend. Recently, the numbers have been generally flattened out. This report tries to estimate the hidden number of currently alive infections in the population by using the confirmed cases. A major result indicates an existing infections estimate at about 10-50 times the daily confirmed new cases, with the stringent social distancing policy tipping to the upper end of this range. It clarifies the relationship between the infection rate and the test rate to put the epidemic under control, which says that the test rate shall keep up at the same pace as infection rate to prevent an outbreak. This relationship is meaningful in the wake of business re-opening in the U.S. and the world. The report also reveals the connections of all the measures taken to the epidemic spread. A stratified sampling method is proposed to add to the current tool kits of epidemic control. Again, this report is a summary of some straight observations and thoughts, not through a thorough study backed with field data. The results appear obvious and suitable for general education to interested policymakers and the public.


id: cord-190254-c3ne3n1l
title: Economic Principles of PoPCoin, a Democratic Time-based Cryptocurrency
author: Zhang, Haoqian
date: 2020-11-03
txt: ./txt/cord-190254-c3ne3n1l.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-190254-c3ne3n1l.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2011.01712v1.pdf
doi: nan
summary:
  We develop and analyze a monetary policy for PoPCoin that embodies these equitability goals in two basic rules that maybe summarized as supporting equal opportunity in"space"and"time": the first by regularly distributing new money equally to all participants much like a basic income, the second by holding the aggregate value of these distributions to a constant and non-diminishing portion of total money supply through demurrage. Through preliminary economic analysis, we find that these rules in combination yield a unique form of money with numerous intriguing and promising properties, such as a quantifiable and provable upper bound on monetary inequality, a natural"early adopter''s reward"that could incentivize rapid growth while tapering off as participation saturates, resistance to the risk of deflationary spirals, and migration incentives opposite those created by conventional basic incomes.

abstract:
  While democracy is founded on the principle of equal opportunity to manage our lives and pursue our fortunes, the forms of money we have inherited from millenia of evolution has brought us to an unsustainable dead-end of exploding inequality. PoPCoin proposes to leverage the unique historical opportunities that digital cryptocurrencies present for a"clean-slate"redesign of money, in particular around long-term equitability and sustainability, rather than solely stability, as our primary goals. We develop and analyze a monetary policy for PoPCoin that embodies these equitability goals in two basic rules that maybe summarized as supporting equal opportunity in"space"and"time": the first by regularly distributing new money equally to all participants much like a basic income, the second by holding the aggregate value of these distributions to a constant and non-diminishing portion of total money supply through demurrage. Through preliminary economic analysis, we find that these rules in combination yield a unique form of money with numerous intriguing and promising properties, such as a quantifiable and provable upper bound on monetary inequality, a natural"early adopter's reward"that could incentivize rapid growth while tapering off as participation saturates, resistance to the risk of deflationary spirals, and migration incentives opposite those created by conventional basic incomes.


id: cord-195263-i4wyhque
title: COVID-19 mitigation strategies and overview on results from relevant studies in Europe
author: Heider, Philipp
date: 2020-05-11
url: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.05249v1.pdf
doi: nan
abstract:
  In December 2019, the first patients in Wuhan, China were diagnosed with a primary atypical pneumonia, which showed to be unknown and contagious. Since then, known as COVID-19 disease, the responsible viral pathogen, SARS-CoV-2, has spread around the world in a pandemic. Decisions on how to deal with the crisis are often based on simulations of the pandemic spread of the virus. The results of some of these, as well as their methodology and possibilities for improvement, will be described in more detail in this paper in order to inform beyond the current public health dogma called"flatten-the-curve". There are several ways to model an epidemic in order to simulate the spread of diseases. Depending on the timeliness, scope and quality of the associated real data, these multivariable models differ in the value of used parameters, but also in the selection of considered influencing factors. It was exemplarily shown that epidemics in their course are simulated more realistically by models that assume subexponential growth. Furthermore, various simulations of the COVID-19 pandemic were presented in an European perspective, compared against each other and discussed in more detail. It is difficult to estimate how credible the simulations of the pandemic models currently are, so it remains to be seen whether the spread of the pandemic can be effectively reduced by the measures taken. Whether a model works well in reality is largely determined by the quality and scope of its underlying data. Past studies have shown that countermeasures are able to reduce reproduction numbers or transmission rates in epidemics. In addition to that, the presented modelling study provides a good framework for the creation of subexponential-growth-models for assessing the spread of COVID-19.


id: cord-254737-pv68fb7d
title: Analysing governmental response to the COVID-19 pandemic
author: Imtyaz, Ayman
date: 2020-08-14
url: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212426820301214?v=s5
doi: 10.1016/j.jobcr.2020.08.005
abstract:
  Abstract Background and aims COVID-19, which started as an epidemic from China in November 2019, was first reported to WHO in December 2019. It had spread to almost all countries globally by March 2020. The pandemic severely affected health and economy globally, prompting countries to take drastic measures to combat the virus. This study aims to analyze different governments' responses to the pandemic to gain insights on how best to fight the Coronavirus. Methodology Various data analysis operations like clustering and bivariate analysis were carried out using Python, Pandas, Scikit-Learn, and Matplotlib to clean up, consolidate, and visualize data. Insights were drawn from the analysis conducted. Results We identified that the mortality rate/case fatality rate is directly proportional to the percentage of elderly (people above 65 years of age) for the top thirty countries by cases. Countries in Western Europe showed the highest mortality rates, whereas countries in South Asia and the Middle East showed the lowest mortality rate (controlling for all other variables). Conclusion Lockdowns are effective in curbing the spread of the virus. A higher amount of testing resulted in a lesser spreading of the virus and better control. In most regions, countries that were conducting a large number of tests also seemed to have lower mortality rates.


id: cord-256201-vjzfzshh
title: Effect of mismatch repair on the mutation rate of bacteriophage ϕX174
author: Pereira-Gómez, Marianoel
date: 2015-09-10
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27774282/
doi: 10.1093/ve/vev010
abstract:
  Viral mutation rates vary widely in nature, yet the mechanistic and evolutionary determinants of this variability remain unclear. Small DNA viruses mutate orders of magnitude faster than their hosts despite using host-encoded polymerases for replication, which suggests these viruses may avoid post-replicative repair. Supporting this, the genome of bacteriophage ϕX174 is completely devoid of GATC sequence motifs, which are required for methyl-directed mismatch repair in Escherichia coli. Here, we show that restoration of the randomly expected number of GATC sites leads to an eightfold reduction in the rate of spontaneous mutation of the phage, without severely impairing its replicative capacity over the short term. However, the efficacy of mismatch repair in the presence of GATC sites is limited by inefficient methylation of the viral DNA. Therefore, both GATC avoidance and DNA under-methylation elevate the mutation rate of the phage relative to that of the host. We also found that the effects of GATC sites on the phage mutation rate vary extensively depending on their specific location within the phage genome. Finally, the mutation rate reduction afforded by GATC sites is fully reverted under stress conditions, which up-regulate repair pathways and expression of error-prone host polymerases such as heat and treatment with the base analog 5-fluorouracil, suggesting that access to repair renders the phage sensitive to stress-induced mutagenesis.


id: cord-260039-k9rs3dql
title: Age- and Sex-Specific Modelling of the COVID-19 Epidemic
author: Doerre, A.
date: 2020-10-08
url: http://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.10.06.20207951v1?rss=1
doi: 10.1101/2020.10.06.20207951
abstract:
  Background: Recent research points towards age- and sex-specific transmission of COVID-19 infections and their outcomes. The effect of sex, however, has been overlooked in past modelling approaches of COVID-19 infections. Aim: The aim of our study is to develop an age- and sex-specific model of COVID-19 transmission and to explore how contact changes effect COVID-19 infection and death rates. Method: We consider a compartment model to establish forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic, in which the compartments are subdivided into different age groups and genders. Estimated contact patterns, based on other studies, are incorporated to account for age- and sex-specific social behaviour. The model is fitted to real data and used for assessing hypothetical scenarios with regard to lockdown measures. Results: Under current mitigation measures as of mid-August, active COVID-19 cases will double by the end of October 2020. Infection rates will be highest among the young and working ages, but will also rise among the old. Sex ratios reveal higher infection risks among women than men at working ages; the opposite holds true at old age. Death rates in all age groups are twice as high among men as women. Small changes in contact rates at working and young ages may have a considerable effect on infections and mortality at old age, with elderly men being always at higher risk of infection and mortality. Discussion: Our results underline the high importance of the non-pharmaceutical mitigation measures in the current phase of the pandemic to prevent that an increase in contact rates leads to higher mortality among the elderly. Gender differences in contact rates, in addition to biological mechanisms related to the immune system, may contribute to sex-specific infection rates and their mortality outcome. To further explore possible pathways, more data on COVID-19 transmission is needed which includes socio-demographic information.


id: cord-260299-0blol7to
author: Karadag, Engin
date: 2020-06-02
txt: ./txt/cord-260299-0blol7to.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-260299-0blol7to.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1002/jmv.26035
doi: 10.1002/jmv.26035
summary:
  In this study, the case‐increase, case‐fatality, and case‐recovery rates of COVID‐19 in 36 European countries were analyzed with the meta‐analysis method using data released by the health organizations and WHO. Therefore, the epidemiological characteristics, case-increase, casefatality, and case-recovery rate of COVID-19 in Europe using the data of a 3-month period from 24 January until today were found using the method of meta-analysis. All search results were evaluated ( Figure 1) according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) and the final analysis was conducted on 1 744 704 COVID-19 diagnosed cases in 36 countries. The study examined the increase of COVID-19 cases in European countries using cross-temporal meta-analysis. Increase in COVID-19 cases and case-fatality and case-recovery rates in Europe: A cross-temporal meta-analysis

title:
  Increase in COVID‐19 cases and case‐fatality and case‐recovery rates in Europe: A cross‐temporal meta‐analysis

abstract:
  The new coronavirus (COVID‐19) infection reported in China in December 2019 has become a pandemic in a few weeks, affecting the entire world. In this respect, it is crucial to determine the case‐increase, case‐fatality, and case‐recovery rates to control COVID‐19. In this study, the case‐increase, case‐fatality, and case‐recovery rates of COVID‐19 in 36 European countries were analyzed with the meta‐analysis method using data released by the health organizations and WHO. The data were obtained from the website of health organizations of 36 European countries and the website of WHO until 11 May 2020. The analyses were carried out on 1 744 704 COVID‐19‐diagnosed cases in 36 European countries. The case‐increase, case‐fatality and case‐recovery rates of COVID‐19 were calculated using 95% confidence intervals (95% CI), single‐arm meta‐analysis, cross‐temporal meta‐analysis, and meta‐regression random‐effects model. The standardized case‐increase rate of COVID‐19 is 5% (95% CI [0.040, 0.063]) and the average case‐increase rate in European countries has started to decline by around 3% (95% CI [0.047, 0.083]) weekly. The countries with the highest rate of case increase are Belgium, Sweden, Russia, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. Although the case‐fatality rate of COVID‐19 patients was 4.5% as of May 11 (95% CI [0.037‐0.055]), this rate is 6.3% (95% CI [0.047, 0.083]) in standardized time (6th week). The case‐recovery rates of patients are 46% (95% CI [0.376‐0.547]). This study presents important results regarding the COVID‐19 pandemic in Europe. Although the rate of increase in new COVID‐19 cases has dropped, there is not much decline in the case‐fatality rates and no increase in case‐recovery rates. The case‐fatality rate of COVID‐19 in Europe was estimated to be in the range of 4% to 4.5% and a minimum of 4 weeks (as of 11 May) is expected to have the figure below 1% in a country with an average case‐increase rate. Monitoring case fatalities in Belgium, the Netherlands and Sweden, and treatment successes in Germany and Austria play a role of utmost importance.


id: cord-268118-lysrwv2f
title: Estimates of the Undetected Rate among the SARS-CoV-2 Infected using Testing Data from Iceland
author: Stock, James H
date: 2020-04-11
txt: ./txt/cord-268118-lysrwv2f.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-268118-lysrwv2f.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.06.20055582
doi: 10.1101/2020.04.06.20055582
summary:
  If the (a) fraction of the population that were NUHI-eligible on a given day were known and if (b) deCODE testing was a random sample of the NUHI-ineligible, then the first expression in (1) could be evaluated directly using data on the NUHI positive testing rate, Pr( = 1| = 1), and the rate of infection among the NUHI-ineligible, ( ) . The term f NE can estimated directly from NUHI testing data, and the term λ0 can be estimated by the proportion of Icelanders who see a doctor about flu-like symptoms, see Appendix Section B for more details. The primary estimate of the lower bound using the eligibility window method uses the infection rate among the asymptomatic from the deCODE tests and assumes that none of the NUHI-ineligible quarantined are infected; this yields an undetected rate of 88.7% (95% confidence interval 83.9% to 93.5%).

abstract:
  Testing for SARS-CoV-2 in the United States is currently targeted to individuals whose symptoms and/or jobs place them at a high presumed risk of infection. An open question is, what is the share of infections that are undetected under current testing guidelines? To answer this question, we turn to COVID-19 testing data from Iceland. The criteria for testing within the Icelandic medical system, processed by the National University Hospital of Iceland (NUHI), have also been targeted at high-risk individuals, but additionally most Icelanders qualify for voluntary testing through the biopharmaceutical company deCODE genetics. We use results from Iceland's two testing programs to estimate the share of infections that are undetected under standard (NUHI) testing guidelines. Because of complications in the deCODE testing regime, it is not possible to estimate a single value for this this undetected rate; however, a range can be estimated. Our primary estimates for the fraction of infections that are undetected range from 88.7% to 93.6%.


id: cord-270803-jtv5jmkn
author: Wang, Lin-Fa
date: 2011-11-09
url: https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/pii/S1879625711001325
doi: 10.1016/j.coviro.2011.10.013
title:
  Mass extinctions, biodiversity and mitochondrial function: are bats ‘special’ as reservoirs for emerging viruses?

abstract:
  For the past 10–15 years, bats have attracted growing attention as reservoirs of emerging zoonotic viruses. This has been due to a combination of factors including the emergence of highly virulent zoonotic pathogens, such as Hendra, Nipah, SARS and Ebola viruses, and the high rate of detection of a large number of previously unknown viral sequences in bat specimens. As bats have ancient evolutionary origins and are the only flying mammals, it has been hypothesized that some of their unique biological features may have made them especially suitable hosts for different viruses. So the question ‘Are bats different, special or exceptional?’ has become a focal point in the field of virology, bat biology and virus-host co-evolution. In this brief review, we examine the topic in a relatively unconventional way, that is, our discussion will be based on both scientific discoveries and theoretical predictions. This approach was chosen partially because the data in this field are so limited that it is impossible to conduct a useful review based on published results only and also because we believe it is important to provoke original, speculative or even controversial ideas or theories in this important field of research.


id: cord-274456-rzrfkkci
title: Monetary policy framework in India
author: Dua, Pami
date: 2020-06-23
txt: ./txt/cord-274456-rzrfkkci.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-274456-rzrfkkci.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1007/s41775-020-00085-3
doi: 10.1007/s41775-020-00085-3
summary:
  "to regulate the issue of Bank notes and keeping of reserves with a view to securing monetary stability in India and generally to operate the currency and credit system of the country to its advantage; to have a modern monetary policy framework to meet the challenge of an increasingly complex economy; to maintain price stability while keeping in mind the objective of growth." Based on RBI''s Report of the Expert Committee to Revise and Strengthen the Monetary Policy Framework (2014, Chairman: Dr Urjit R Patel), a formal transition was made in 2016 towards flexible inflation targeting and a six member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) was constituted for setting the policy repo rate. It may be noted that before the constitution of the MPC, a Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) on Monetary Policy was set up in 2005 which consisted of external experts from monetary economics, central banking, financial markets and public finance.

abstract:
  In 2016, the monetary policy framework moved towards flexible inflation targeting and a six member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) was constituted for setting the policy rate. With this step towards modernization of the monetary policy process, India joined the set of countries that have adopted inflation targeting as their monetary policy framework. The Consumer Price Index (CPI combined) inflation target was set by the Government of India at 4% with ± 2% tolerance band for the period from August 5, 2016 to March 31, 2021. In this backdrop, the paper reviews the evolution of monetary policy frameworks in India since the mid-1980s. It also describes the monetary policy transmission process and its limitations in terms of lags and rigidities. It highlights the importance of unconventional monetary policy measures in supplementing conventional tools especially during the easing cycle. Further, it examines the voting pattern of the MPC in India and compares this with that of various developed and emerging economies. The synchronization of cuts in the policy rate by MPCs of various countries during the global slowdown in 2019 and the COVID-19 pandemic in the early 2020s is also analysed.


id: cord-279728-kbnz1sy3
author: Zhao, X.
date: 2020-07-25
url: http://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.07.21.20158303v1?rss=1
doi: 10.1101/2020.07.21.20158303
title:
  Threshold analyses on rates of testing, transmission, and contact for COVID-19 control in a university setting

abstract:
  We simulated epidemic projections of a potential COVID-19 outbreak in a university population of 38,000 persons, under varying combinations of mass test rate (0% to 10%), contact trace and test rate (0% to 50%), transmission rate (probability of transmission per contact per day), and contact rate (number of contacts per person per day). We simulated four levels of transmission rate, 14% (average baseline), 8% (average for face mask use), 5.4% (average for 3ft distancing), and 2.5% (average for 6ft distancing and face mask use), interpolating results to the full range to understand the impact of uncertainty in effectiveness, feasibility, and adherence of face mask use and physical distancing. We evaluated contact rates between 1 and 25, to identify the threshold that, if exceeded, could lead to several deaths. When transmission rate was 8%, for trace and test at 50%, the contact rate threshold was 8. However, any time delays in trace, test, and isolation quickly raised the number of deaths. Keeping contact rate to 3 or below was more robust to testing delays, keeping deaths below 1 up to a delay of 5 days from the time of infection to diagnosis and isolation. For a contact rate of 3, the number of trace and tests peaked to about 70 per day and relaxed to 25 with the addition of 10% mass test. When transmission rate was 5.4%, for trace and test at 50%, the contact rate threshold was 10. However, keeping contact rate to 4 or below was more robust to delays in testing, keeping deaths below 1 up to a delay of 6 days from the time of infection to diagnosis and isolation. For contact rate of 4, the number of trace and tests peaked at 50 per day and relaxed to 10 per day with the addition of 10% mass test. Threshold estimates can help develop on-campus scheduling and indoor-spacing plans in conjunction with plans for asymptomatic testing for COVID-19. Combination thresholds should be selected specific to the setting based on an assessment of the feasibility and resource 48 availability for testing and quarantine.


id: cord-279892-37vyazby
author: Sun, Guanghao
date: 2017-01-16
url: https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/pii/S1201971217300103
doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2017.01.007
title:
  Remote sensing of multiple vital signs using a CMOS camera-equipped infrared thermography system and its clinical application in rapidly screening patients with suspected infectious diseases

abstract:
  BACKGROUND: Infrared thermography (IRT) is used to screen febrile passengers at international airports, but it suffers from low sensitivity. This study explored the application of a combined visible and thermal image processing approach that uses a CMOS camera equipped with IRT to remotely sense multiple vital signs and screen patients with suspected infectious diseases. METHODS: An IRT system that produced visible and thermal images was used for image acquisition. The subjects’ respiration rates were measured by monitoring temperature changes around the nasal areas on thermal images; facial skin temperatures were measured simultaneously. Facial blood circulation causes tiny color changes in visible facial images that enable the determination of the heart rate. A logistic regression discriminant function predicted the likelihood of infection within 10 s, based on the measured vital signs. Sixteen patients with an influenza-like illness and 22 control subjects participated in a clinical test at a clinic in Fukushima, Japan. RESULTS: The vital-sign-based IRT screening system had a sensitivity of 87.5% and a negative predictive value of 91.7%; these values are higher than those of conventional fever-based screening approaches. CONCLUSIONS: Multiple vital-sign-based screening efficiently detected patients with suspected infectious diseases. It offers a promising alternative to conventional fever-based screening.


id: cord-284945-837qlk8y
title: Estimating the global spread of COVID-19
author: Rahmandad, H.
date: 2020-06-26
txt: ./txt/cord-284945-837qlk8y.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-284945-837qlk8y.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.24.20139451
doi: 10.1101/2020.06.24.20139451
summary:
  Using data for all 84 countries with reliable testing data (spanning 4.75 billion people) we develop a dynamic epidemiological model integrating data on cases, deaths, excess mortality and other factors to estimate how asymptomatic transmission, disease acuity, hospitalization, and behavioral and policy responses to risk condition prevalence and IFR across nations and over time. Our model captures transmission dynamics for the disease, as well as how, at the country level, transmission rates vary in response to risk perception and weather, testing rates condition infection and death data, and fatality rates depend on demographics and hospitalization. Using testing rate time series and various country-level data points (e.g. population, hospital capacity, comorbidities, age distribution), the model endogenously simulates confirmed new daily cases and deaths over time and matches them against observed data by maximizing the likelihood of observing those data given the model parameters.

abstract:
  Limited and inconsistent testing and differences in age distribution, health care resources, social distancing, and policies have caused large variations in the extent and dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic across nations, complicating the estimation of prevalence, the infection fatality rate (IFR), and other factors important to care providers and policymakers. Using data for all 84 countries with reliable testing data (spanning 4.75 billion people) we develop a dynamic epidemiological model integrating data on cases, deaths, excess mortality and other factors to estimate how asymptomatic transmission, disease acuity, hospitalization, and behavioral and policy responses to risk condition prevalence and IFR across nations and over time. For these nations we estimate IFR averages 0.68% (0.64%-0.7%). Cases and deaths through June 18, 2020 are estimated to be 11.8 and 1.48 times official reports, respectively, at 88.5 (85-95.3) million and 600 (586-622) thousand. Prevalence and IFR vary substantially, e.g., Ecuador (18%; 0.61%), Chile (15.5%; 0.57%), Mexico (8.8%; 0.69%), Iran (7.9%; 0.44%), USA (5.3%; 0.99%), UK (5.2%; 1.59%), Iceland (1.65%, 0.56%), New Zealand (0.1%, 0.64%), but all nations remain well below the level needed for herd immunity. By alerting the public earlier and reducing contacts, extensive testing when the pandemic was declared could have averted 35.3 (32.7-42.7) million cases and 197 (171-232) thousand deaths. However, future outcomes are less dependent on testing and more contingent on the willingness of communities and governments to reduce transmission. Absent breakthroughs in treatment or vaccination and with mildly improved responses we project 249 (186-586) million cases and 1.75 (1.40-3.67) million deaths in the 84 countries by Spring 2021.


id: cord-285105-72v6qufw
title: The Easter and Passover Blip in New York City
author: Vierlboeck, Maximilian
date: 2020-04-17
url: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.14.20065300
doi: 10.1101/2020.04.14.20065300
abstract:
  Abstract and Executive Summary - When it comes to pandemics such as the currently present COVID-19 [1], various issues and problems arise for infrastructures and institutions. Due to possible extreme effects, such as hospitals potentially running out of beds or medical equipment, it is essential to lower the infection rate to create enough space to attend to the affected people and allow enough time for a vaccine to be developed. Unfortunately, this requires that measures put into place are upheld long enough to reduce the infection rate sufficiently. In this paper, we describe research simulating the influences of the contact rate on the spread of the pandemic using New York City as an example (Section IV) and especially already observed effects of contact rate increases during holidays [2-4] (Section V). In multiple simulations scenarios for Passover and Easter holidays, we evaluated 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100% temporary increases in contact rates using a scenario close to the currently reported numbers as reference and contact rates based on bioterrorism research as a 'normal' baseline for NYC. The first general finding from the simulations is that singular events of increased visits/contacts amplify each other disproportionately if they are happening in close proximity (time intervals) together. The second general observation was that contact rate spikes leave a permanently increased and devastating infection rate behind, even after the contact rate returns to the reduced one. In case of a temporary sustained increase of contact rate for just three days in a row, the aftermath results in an increase of infection rate up to 40%, which causes double the fatalities in the long run. In numbers, given that increases of 25% and 50% seem to be most likely given the data seen in Germany for the Easter weekend for example [2, 3], our simulations show the following increases (compared to the realistic reference run): for a temporary 25% surge in contact rate, the total cases grew by 215,880, the maximum of required hospitalizations over time increased to 63,063, and the total fatalities climbed by 8,844 accumulated over 90 days. As for the 50% surge, we saw the total number of cases rise by 461,090, the maximum number of required hospitalizations increase to 79,733, and the total number of fatalities climb by 19,125 over 90 days in NYC. All in all, we conclude that even very short, temporary increases in contact rates can have disproportionate effects and result in unrecoverable phenomena that can hardly be reversed or managed later. The numbers show possible phenomena before they might develop effects in reality. This is important because phenomena such as the described blip can impact the hospitals in reality. Therefore, we warn that a wave of infections due to increased contact rates during Passover/Easter might come as a result!


id: cord-288303-88c6qsek
title: On nonlinear incidence rate of Covid-19
author: Paul, S. K.
date: 2020-10-21
url: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.10.19.20215665
doi: 10.1101/2020.10.19.20215665
abstract:
  Classical Susceptible-Infected-Removed model with constant transmission rate and removal rate may not capture real world dynamics of epidemic due to complex influence of multiple external factors on the spread. On top of that transmission rate may vary widely in a large region due to non-stationarity of spatial features which poses difficulty in creating a global model. We modified discrete global Susceptible-Infected-Removed model by using time varying transmission rate, recovery rate and multiple spatially local models. No specific functional form of transmission rate has been assumed. We have derived the criteria for disease-free equilibrium within a specific time period. A single Convolutional LSTM model is created and trained to map multiple spatiotemporal features to transmission rate. The model achieved 8.39% mean absolute percent error in terms of cumulative infection cases in each locality in a 10-day prediction period. Local interpretations of the model using perturbation method reveals local influence of different features on transmission rate which in turn is used to generate a set of generalized global interpretations. A what-if scenario with modified recovery rate illustrates rapid dampening of the spread when forecasted with the trained model. A comparative study with current normal scenario reveals key necessary steps to reach baseline.


id: cord-289692-fraczoxu
author: He, Wenqing
date: 2020-06-09
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32470164/
doi: 10.1002/jmv.26041
title:
  Estimation of the basic reproduction number, average incubation time, asymptomatic infection rate, and case fatality rate for COVID‐19: Meta‐analysis and sensitivity analysis

abstract:
  The coronavirus disease‐2019 (COVID‐19) has been found to be caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2). However, comprehensive knowledge of COVID‐19 remains incomplete and many important features are still unknown. This manuscript conducts a meta‐analysis and a sensitivity study to answer the questions: What is the basic reproduction number? How long is the incubation time of the disease on average? What portion of infections are asymptomatic? And ultimately, what is the case fatality rate? Our studies estimate the basic reproduction number to be 3.15 with the 95% CI (2.41‐3.90), the average incubation time to be 5.08 days with the 95% CI (4.77‐5.39) (in day), the asymptomatic infection rate to be 46% with the 95% CI (18.48%‐73.60%), and the case fatality rate to be 2.72% with 95% CI (1.29%‐4.16%) where asymptomatic infections are accounted for.


id: cord-291501-9dhldjjp
title: Is virtual existence our new reality?
author: Sarraf, David
date: 2020-05-25
txt: ./txt/cord-291501-9dhldjjp.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-291501-9dhldjjp.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32448922/
doi: 10.1007/s00417-020-04750-4
abstract: nan
summary:
  A culture that more and more is moving in the direction of a virtual existence with a preference to limit human contact and only communicate through a digital interface that eliminates our deepest anxieties and fears. In an effort to urge greater resiliency of her constituency in the fight against the coronavirus which continues to infect thousands of people every day, just here in the state of California, she noted: "…this is not the end. Roosevelt: "We have nothing to fear but fear itself." The political policies to fight COVID-19 and "flatten the curve" of infection have been successful and have reduced conversion rates so that hospital ERs and ICUs are not overburdened, ensuring that patients with coronavirus throughout the world receive optimal care. It is clear that one of the reasons for the higher death rate in Italy may relate to severely ill COVID patients who did not receive necessary supportive care in time because hospitals were overwhelmed by deathly sick coronavirus patients.


id: cord-291837-qz4g4v1u
author: Livadiotis, George
date: 2020-04-24
txt: ./txt/cord-291837-qz4g4v1u.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-291837-qz4g4v1u.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: http://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.04.21.20072405v1?rss=1
doi: 10.1101/2020.04.21.20072405
summary:
  We perform a statistical analysis for understanding the effect of the environmental temperature on the exponential growth rate of the cases infected by COVID-19 for US and Italian regions. In particular, we analyze the datasets of regional infected cases, derive the growth rates for regions characterized by readable exponential growth phase in their evolution spread curve and plot them against the environmental temperatures averaged within the same regions, derive the relationship between temperature and growth rate, and evaluate its statistical confidence. The results clearly support the first reported statistically significant relationship of negative correlation between the average environmental temperature and exponential growth rates of the infected cases. First, we derive the exponential growth rates of the infected cases characterizing each examined region of Italy and US; then, we plot these values against the environmental temperatures of each region, and perform the corresponding statistical analysis.

title:
  Statistical analysis of the impact of environmental temperature on the exponential growth rate of cases infected by COVID-19

abstract:
  We perform a statistical analysis for understanding the effect of the environmental temperature on the exponential growth rate of the cases infected by COVID-19 for US and Italian regions. In particular, we analyze the datasets of regional infected cases, derive the growth rates for regions characterized by readable exponential growth phase in their evolution spread curve and plot them against the environmental temperatures averaged within the same regions, derive the relationship between temperature and growth rate, and evaluate its statistical confidence. The results clearly support the first reported statistically significant relationship of negative correlation between the average environmental temperature and exponential growth rates of the infected cases. The critical temperature, which eliminates the exponential growth, and thus the COVID-19 spread in US regions, is estimated to be Tc = 86.1 ± 4.3 F.


id: cord-293301-7bmj8qsv
author: Buonanno, Giorgio
date: 2020-04-17
url: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.12.20062828
doi: 10.1101/2020.04.12.20062828
title:
  Estimation of airborne viral emission: quanta emission rate of SARS-CoV-2 for infection risk assessment

abstract:
  Airborne transmission is a pathway of contagion that is still not sufficiently investigated despite the evidence in the scientific literature of the role it can play in the context of an epidemic. While the medical research area dedicates efforts to find cures and remedies to counteract the effects of a virus, the engineering area is involved in providing risk assessments in indoor environments by simulating the airborne transmission of the virus during an epidemic. To this end, virus air emission data are needed. Unfortunately, this information is usually available only after the outbreak, based on specific reverse engineering cases. In this work, a novel approach to estimate the viral load emitted by a contagious subject on the basis of the viral load in the mouth, the type of respiratory activity (e.g. breathing, speaking), respiratory physiological parameters (e.g. inhalation rate), and activity level (e.g. resting, standing, light exercise) is proposed. The estimates of the proposed approach are in good agreement with values of viral loads of well-known diseases from the literature. The quanta emission rates of an asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infected subject, with a viral load in the mouth of 108 copies mL-1, were 10.5 quanta h-1 and 320 quanta h-1 for breathing and speaking respiratory activities, respectively, at rest. In the case of light activity, the values would increase to 33.9 quanta h-1 and 1.03×103 quanta h-1, respectively. The findings in terms of quanta emission rates were then adopted in infection risk models to demonstrate its application by evaluating the number of people infected by an asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 subject in Italian indoor microenvironments before and after the introduction of virus containment measures. The results obtained from the simulations clearly highlight that a key role is played by proper ventilation in containment of the virus in indoor environments.


id: cord-298871-g7mqsbct
title: Unemployment in Switzerland in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic: an intertemporal perspective
author: Sheldon, George
date: 2020-08-18
txt: ./txt/cord-298871-g7mqsbct.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-298871-g7mqsbct.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1186/s41937-020-00058-6
doi: 10.1186/s41937-020-00058-6
summary:
  Accordingly, the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs currently expects the unemployment rate to average 4.1% in the coming year, eventually reaching 7% if the shutdown persists, and this despite the fact that over a quarter of the employed are presently working short time to avoid unemployment. In other words, they correspond to the unemployment rate and the share of long-term unemployed that the risk and duration of unemployment prevailing in a given calendar month imply stochastically in a steady state, i.e., in the longer term. The curves in Fig. 3 imply that, based on the risk and expected duration of unemployment prevailing in June 2020, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate of 3.7% at the end of June will exceed 6% in 5 months, a level that the indicator last reached in the early 1990s.

abstract:
  The following contribution compares the unemployment situation arising from the lockdown induced by the Covid-19 pandemic with previous employment crises in Switzerland. In addition, it forecasts the future trajectory of unemployment based on ongoing changes in hazard rates. From a historical perspective, current unemployment as well as that expected by the federal authorities in the medium term do not seem that dramatic. Current hazard rates present a different picture, however, predicting increases in both the unemployment rate and long-term unemployment to record levels.


id: cord-305431-re5jstvi
title: Can we expect an increased suicide rate due to Covid-19?
author: Devitt, Patrick
date: 2020-05-21
url: https://doi.org/10.1017/ipm.2020.46
doi: 10.1017/ipm.2020.46
abstract:
  Human disasters come in all shapes and sizes including wars, terrorist violence, natural events, economic recessions and depressions as well as infection. As a species more fragile than we often allow, humans would be expected to adversely react to these types of disasters in terms of mental ill health and possibly suicidal behaviour leading to increased demands on the Mental Health services. This narrative historical paper examines relevant studies into how previous disasters affected mental health and suicidal behaviour. The characteristics of what is known of the current Covid-19 disease are analysed and compared to other types of disasters with a view to gaining some insight into what we might expect. Of all the types of disasters, economic recession appears most toxic. Mitigating the worst effects of recession appears to be protective. Particularly vulnerable groups are identified in whom we might expect an increase in suicidal behaviour.


id: cord-314206-caxz025z
title: Reusable elastomeric air-purifying respirators: Physiologic impact on health care workers
author: Roberge, Raymond J.
date: 2010-03-01
txt: ./txt/cord-314206-caxz025z.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-314206-caxz025z.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20189685/
doi: 10.1016/j.ajic.2009.11.006
summary:
  Compared with controls, the EAPR resulted in significant decreases in breathing rate at both work rates and significantly increased tidal volume at the 1.7-mph work rate; otherwise, there were no statistically significant differences in measured physiological variables (Tables 1 and 2) There were no significant differences in mean mixed inhalation/exhalation respirator dead space carbon dioxide concentrations at 1.7 mph and 2.5 mph (P 5 .61) or respirator dead space oxygen concentrations at 1.7 mph or 2.5 mph (P 5 .80) ( Table 2 ). The study data indicate that the use of an EAPR by healthy HCWs, over 1 hour at work rates associated with the health care environment, was associated with statistically significant decreases in the breathing rate at 1.7 mph (P 5 .02) and 2.5 mph (P 5 .03) that was compensated by a significant increase in the tidal volume at 1.7 mph (P 5 .009) and nonsignificant increase at 2.5 mph (P 5 .14) compared with controls (Table 3) .

abstract:
  BACKGROUND: Elastomeric air-purifying respirators offer the benefit of reusability, but their physiological impact on health care workers is unknown. METHODS: Ten health care workers exercised at 2 health care-associated work rates wearing an elastomeric air-purifying respirator. Mixed inhalation/exhalation respirator dead space gases (oxygen, carbon dioxide) were sampled, and physiological parameters were monitored (heart rate, breathing rate, tidal volume, minute volume, oxygen saturation, transcutaneous carbon dioxide). Numerical rating scales were used to evaluate comfort and exertion. RESULTS: Compared with controls (no respirator), significant decreases in the breathing rate at both work rates (P < .05) and increases in tidal volume at the lower work rate (P < .01) were noted with respirator use. Approximately half the subjects had transcutaneous carbon dioxide levels above the upper limit of normal after 1 hour of use. Although well tolerated, comfort was negatively impacted by elastomeric air-purifying respirators wear. CONCLUSION: Reusable elastomeric air-purifying respirators impose little additional physiological burden over the course of 1 hour at usual health care work rates. However, the potential for carbon dioxide retention in a significant proportion of users exists and requires further investigation.


id: cord-314235-08z2jyzd
author: Matzinger, P.
date: 2020-09-28
url: http://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.09.26.20202457v1?rss=1
doi: 10.1101/2020.09.26.20202457
title:
  Strong impact of closing schools, closing bars and wearing masks during the Covid-19 pandemic: results from a simple and revealing analysis

abstract:
  Many complex mathematical and epidemiological methods have been used to model the Covid-19 pandemic. Among other results from these models has been the view that closing schools had little impact on infection rates in several countries1. We took a different approach. Making one assumption, we simply plotted cases, hospitalizations and deaths, on a log2 Y axis and a linear date-based X axis, and analyzed them using segmented regression, a powerful method that has largely been overlooked during this pandemic. Here we show that the data fit straight lines with correlation coefficients ranging from 92% - 99%, and that these lines broke at interesting intervals, revealing that school closings dropped infection rates in half, lockdowns dropped the rates 3 to 4 fold, and other actions (such as closing bars and mandating masks) brought the rates even further down. Hospitalizations and deaths paralleled cases, with lags of three to ten days. The graphs, which are easy to read, reveal changes in infection rates that are not obvious using other graphing methods, and have several implications for modeling and policy development during this and future pandemics. Overall, other than full lockdowns, three interventions had the most impact: closing schools, closing bars and wearing masks: a message easily understood by the public.


id: cord-316073-zm3ih55y
title: Potential Impact of Antiviral Drug Use during Influenza Pandemic
author: Gani, Raymond
date: 2005-09-17
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16229762/
doi: 10.3201/eid1109.041344
abstract:
  The recent spread of highly pathogenic strains of avian influenza has highlighted the threat posed by pandemic influenza. In the early phases of a pandemic, the only treatment available would be neuraminidase inhibitors, which many countries are considering stockpiling for pandemic use. We estimate the effect on hospitalization rates of using different antiviral stockpile sizes to treat infection. We estimate that stockpiles that cover 20%–25% of the population would be sufficient to treat most of the clinical cases and could lead to 50% to 77% reductions in hospitalizations. Substantial reductions in hospitalization could be achieved with smaller antiviral stockpiles if drugs are reserved for persons at high risk.


id: cord-321966-q0if8li9
title: An analecta of visualizations for foodborne illness trends and seasonality
author: Simpson, Ryan B.
date: 2020-10-13
txt: ./txt/cord-321966-q0if8li9.txt
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mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33051470/
doi: 10.1038/s41597-020-00677-x
summary:
  However, current surveillance systems, including foodborne disease surveillance in the United States, often compress time series records to simplistic annual trends [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] and describe seasonality by the month(s) with the highest cases per year or the first month of outbreak onset [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] . " These plots can effectively illustrate multiple dimensions of information including different time units (e.g. yearly, monthly), disease statistics (e.g. pathogens, rates, counts), seasonality characteristics (e.g. peak timing, amplitude), and locations (e.g. state-level, national). The top-left panel provides an overlay of all annual seasonal signatures, a set of curves depicting characteristic variations in disease incidence over the course of one year, where line hues become increasingly darker with more recent data and a red line indicates median monthly rates, as in Fig. 1 .

abstract:
  Disease surveillance systems worldwide face increasing pressure to maintain and distribute data in usable formats supplemented with effective visualizations to enable actionable policy and programming responses. Annual reports and interactive portals provide access to surveillance data and visualizations depicting temporal trends and seasonal patterns of diseases. Analyses and visuals are typically limited to reporting the annual time series and the month with the highest number of cases per year. Yet, detecting potential disease outbreaks and supporting public health interventions requires detailed spatiotemporal comparisons to characterize spatiotemporal patterns of illness across diseases and locations. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) FoodNet Fast provides population-based foodborne-disease surveillance records and visualizations for select counties across the US. We offer suggestions on how current FoodNet Fast data organization and visual analytics can be improved to facilitate data interpretation, decision-making, and communication of features related to trend and seasonality. The resulting compilation, or analecta, of 436 visualizations of records and codes are openly available online.


id: cord-323943-9916y6x0
title: Lies, Gosh Darn Lies, and Not Enough Good Statistics: Why Epidemic Model Parameter Estimation Fails
author: Platt, Daniel E
date: 2020-04-21
url: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.20.20071928
doi: 10.1101/2020.04.20.20071928
abstract:
  An opportunity exists in exploring epidemic modeling as a novel way to determine physiological and demic parameters for genetic association studies on a population/environmental (quasi) epidemiological study level. First, the spread of SARS-COV-2 has produced population specific lineages; second, epidemic spread model parameters are tied directly to these physiological and demic rates (e. g. incubation time, recovery time, transmission rate); and third, these parameters may serve as novel phenotypes to associate with region-specific genetic mutations as well as demic characteristics (e. g. age structure, cultural observance of personal space, crowdedness). Therefore, we sought to understand whether the parameters of epidemic models could be determined from the trajectory of infections, recovery, and hospitalizations prior to peak, and also to evaluate the quality and comparability of data between jurisdictions reporting their statistics necessary for the analysis of model parameters across populations. We found that, analytically, the pre-peak growth of an epidemic is limited by a subset of the model variates, and that the rate limiting variables are dominated by the expanding eigenmode of their equations. The variates quickly converge to the ratio of eigenvector components of the positive growth rate, which determines the doubling time. There are 9 parameters and 4 independent components in the eigenmode, leaving 5 undetermined parameters. Those parameters can be strikingly population dependent, and can have significant impact on estimates of hospital loads downstream. Without a sound framework, measurements of infection rates and other parameters are highly corrupted by uneven testing rates to uneven counting and reporting of relevant values. From the standpoint of phenotype parameters, this means that structured experiments must be performed to estimate these parameters in order to perform genetic association studies, or to construct viable models that accurately predict critical quantities such as hospitalization loads.


id: cord-324650-rsp72rx8
title: Policy determinants of COVID-19 pandemic-induced fatality rates across nations
author: Teixeira da Silva, Jaime A.
date: 2020-08-18
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32971478/
doi: 10.1016/j.puhe.2020.08.008
abstract:
  Abstract Objectives COVID-19 is the most devastating pandemic to affect humanity in a century. In this paper, we assessed tests as a policy instrument and policy enactment to contain COVID-19 and potentially reduce mortalities. Study design A model was devised to estimate the factors that influenced the death rate across 121 nations and by income group. Results Nations with a higher proportion of people age 65+ had a higher fatality rate (p = 0.00014). Delaying policy enactment led to a higher case fatality rate (p = 0.0013). A 10% delay time to act resulted in a 3.7% higher case fatality rate. This study found that delaying policies for international travel restrictions, public information campaigns, and testing policies increased the fatality rate. Tests also impacted the case fatality rate, and nations with 10% more cumulative tests per million people resulted in a 2.8% lower mortality rate. Citizens of nations who can access more destinations without the need to have a prior visa have a significant higher mortality rate than those that need a visa to travel abroad (p = 0.0040). Conclusion Tests, as a surrogate of policy action and earlier policy enactment, matter for saving lives from pandemics as such policies reduce the transmission rate of the pandemic.


id: cord-326296-a6ldr0mn
title: Method for Active Pandemic Curve Management (MAPCM)
author: Odendaal, Willem G
date: 2020-04-13
txt: ./txt/cord-326296-a6ldr0mn.txt
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url: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.06.20055699
doi: 10.1101/2020.04.06.20055699
summary:
  A new strategy, coined a "Method for Active Pandemic Curve Management", abbreviated MAPCM, presented herein can shape the outbreak curve in a controlled manner for optimal utilization of healthcare resources during the pandemic, while drastically shortening the outbreak duration compared to mitigation by itself without trading off lives. • programmable curve in amplitude and duration • customizable to meet available resources • eliminates the exponential peak • optimizes utilization of healthcare capacity • reduces fatality rate through better healthcare • shortens outbreak duration & disruption to normal life • minimizes the cost of containment • Does not keep economy at standstill • Gradually brings economy back online from day one • Not Magic! In fact, the curves for projected hospitalizations with full mitigation remain exponential with peak amplitudes that still exceed available healthcare capacities as shown in Figure 2 and again in Figure 3 , which depicts new cases being reported daily under a few different strategies.

abstract:
  The COVID-19 pandemic of 2020 prompted stringent mitigation measures to "flatten the curve" quickly leading to an asphyxiated US economy as a national side effect. There are severe drawbacks to this strategy. The resulting flattened curve remains exponential and always under utilizes available healthcare capacity with a chance of still overburdening it. Moreover, while a mitigation strategy involving isolation and containment can scale down infections, it not only prolongs the outbreak significantly, but also leaves a susceptible population in its wake that's ripe for a secondary outbreak. Since economic activity is inversely proportional to mitigation, curtailing the outbreak with sustained mitigation can stifle the economy severely with disastrous repercussions. Full mitigation for the duration of an outbreak is therefore unsustainable and, overall, a poor solution with potentially catastrophic consequences that could've been avoided. A new strategy, coined a "Method for Active Pandemic Curve Management", abbreviated MAPCM, presented herein can shape the outbreak curve in a controlled manner for optimal utilization of healthcare resources during the pandemic, while drastically shortening the outbreak duration compared to mitigation by itself without trading off lives. This method allows mitigation measures to be relaxed gradually from day one, which enables economic activity to resume gradually from the onset of a pandemic. Since outbreak curves (such as hospitalizations) can be programmed using this method, they can also be shaped to accommodate changing needs during the outbreak; and to build herd immunity without the damaging side effects. The method can also be used to ease out of containment. MAPCM is a method and not a model. It is compatible with any appropriate outbreak model; and herein it is illustrated in examples using a hybrid logistic model.


id: cord-326820-11sl17ap
title: Is diet partly responsible for differences in COVID-19 death rates between and within countries?
author: Bousquet, Jean
date: 2020-05-27
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32499909/
doi: 10.1186/s13601-020-00323-0
abstract:
  Reported COVID-19 deaths in Germany are relatively low as compared to many European countries. Among the several explanations proposed, an early and large testing of the population was put forward. Most current debates on COVID-19 focus on the differences among countries, but little attention has been given to regional differences and diet. The low-death rate European countries (e.g. Austria, Baltic States, Czech Republic, Finland, Norway, Poland, Slovakia) have used different quarantine and/or confinement times and methods and none have performed as many early tests as Germany. Among other factors that may be significant are the dietary habits. It seems that some foods largely used in these countries may reduce angiotensin-converting enzyme activity or are anti-oxidants. Among the many possible areas of research, it might be important to understand diet and angiotensin-converting enzyme-2 (ACE2) levels in populations with different COVID-19 death rates since dietary interventions may be of great benefit.


id: cord-328069-a9fi9ssg
author: Pathan, Refat Khan
date: 2020-06-13
url: https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/pii/S0960077920304161
doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110018
title:
  Time Series Prediction of COVID-19 by Mutation Rate Analysis using Recurrent Neural Network-based LSTM Model

abstract:
  SARS-CoV-2, a novel coronavirus mostly known as COVID-19 has created a global pandemic. The world is now immobilized by this infectious RNA virus. As of May 18, already more than 4.8 million people have been infected and 316k people died. This RNA virus has the ability to do the mutation in the human body. Accurate determination of mutation rates is essential to comprehend the evolution of this virus and to determine the risk of emergent infectious disease. This study explores the mutation rate of the whole genomic sequence gathered from the patient's dataset of different countries. The collected dataset is processed to determine the nucleotide mutation and codon mutation separately. Furthermore, based on the size of the dataset, the determined mutation rate is categorized for four different regions: China, Australia, The United States, and the rest of the World. It has been found that a huge amount of Thymine (T) and Adenine (A) are mutated to other nucleotides for all regions, but codons are not frequently mutating like nucleotides. A recurrent neural network-based Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) model has been applied to predict the future mutation rate of this virus. The LSTM model gives Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.06 in testing and 0.04 in training, which is an optimized value. Using this train and testing process, the nucleotide mutation rate of 400(th) patient in future time has been predicted. About 0.1% increment in mutation rate is found for mutating of nucleotides from T to C and G, C to G and G to T. While a decrement of 0.1% is seen for mutating of T to A, and A to C. It is found that this model can be used to predict day basis mutation rates if more patient data is available in updated time.


id: cord-328104-triub2h6
title: Automated Analysis of Fatality Rates for COVID 19 across Different Countries
author: Ibraheem Jabbar, Shaima
date: 2020-09-26
url: https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/pii/S111001682030483X
doi: 10.1016/j.aej.2020.09.027
abstract:
  One of the significant parameters that helps in the reporting the highest risk areas, which have COVID 19 pandemic is case fatality rate (CFR). In this work, automated analysis was carried out to evaluate fatality rate (CFR) across different countries. Furthermore, a state of art algorithm is proposed to estimate CFR and it is possible to make it applicable in the mobile phone. This application will enable us to monitor the status level of the patients (suspected, exposed and infected) to save time , efforts and get a high quailty of the recordings. All data were obtained from (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/) and pointed at the period between 27th March and 27th May, 2020. Results present Spain and Egypt have a highest score of the fatality rate (approximately 24%) compared with previous research, which Italy was the highest score of the case fatality rate (CFR). On the other hand, Australia has had the lowest of the (CFR) in the current and previous researches. Furthermore, Spain has the highest percentage score of the total active cases and death rate: 0.41% and 0.00073% respectively. Documentation and comparison fatality rate of COVID 19 pandemic across different countries could assist in illustrating the strength of this pandemic, speed spreading and risk area which infected of this disease.


id: cord-333181-maep6fie
title: Spillovers and connectedness in foreign exchange markets: The role of trade policy uncertainty
author: Huynh, Toan Luu Duc
date: 2020-10-09
url: https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/pii/S1062976920301113
doi: 10.1016/j.qref.2020.09.001
abstract:
  This paper analyses the directional spillover effects and connectedness for both return and volatility of nine US dollar exchange rates of globally most traded currencies under the influence of trade policy uncertainty. We find two interesting results over the study period ranging from December 1993 to July 2019. First, there exists asymmetric spillovers and connectedness among the considered exchange rates when trade policy uncertainty is present. Second, the volatility spillover is stronger than the return connectedness between exchange rate and trade policy uncertainty. These findings are robust to the presence of economic policy uncertainty effects. Concomitantly, the trade policy uncertainty patterns are also found to be useful for predicting currency market dynamics. Our findings contribute to the debate on the impact of trade policy uncertainty on the global economy and financial sector.


id: cord-336071-t7c0drft
author: Chiyomaru, Katsumi
date: 2020-04-14
url: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.10.20060459
doi: 10.1101/2020.04.10.20060459
title:
  Global COVID-19 transmission rate is influenced by precipitation seasonality and the speed of climate temperature warming

abstract:
  The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) became a rapidly spreading worldwide epidemic; thus, it is a global priority to reduce the speed of the epidemic spreading. Several studies predicted that high temperature and humidity could reduce COVID-19 transmission. However, exceptions exist to this observation, further thorough examinations are thus needed for their confirmation. In this study, therefore, we used a global dataset of COVID-19 cases and global climate databases and comprehensively investigated how climate parameters could contribute to the growth rate of COVID-19 cases while statistically controlling for potential confounding effects using spatial analysis. We also confirmed that the growth rate decreased with the temperature; however, the growth rate was affected by precipitation seasonality and warming velocity rather than temperature. In particular, a lower growth rate was observed for a higher precipitation seasonality and lower warming velocity. These effects were independent of population density, human life quality, and travel restrictions. The results indicate that the temperature effect is less important compared to these intrinsic climate characteristics, which might thus be useful for explaining the exceptions. However, the contributions of the climate parameters to the growth rate were moderate; rather, the contribution of travel restrictions in each country was more significant. Although our findings are preliminary owing to data-analysis limitations, they may be helpful when predicting COVID-19 transmission.


id: cord-336743-udokbcki
author: Lilitsis, Emmanouil
date: 2020-06-10
url: https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/pii/S1569904820301324
doi: 10.1016/j.resp.2020.103474
title:
  Inspiratory effort and breathing pattern change in response to varying the assist level: a physiological study

abstract:
  AIM: To describe the response of breathing pattern and inspiratory effort upon changes in assist level and to assesss if changes in respiratory rate may indicate changes in respiratory muscle effort. METHODS: Prospective study of 82 patients ventilated on proportional assist ventilation (PAV+). At three levels of assist (20%-50%-80%), patients’ inspiratory effort and breathing pattern were evaluated using a validated prototype monitor. RESULTS: Independent of the assist level, a wide range of respiratory rates (16-35br/min) was observed when patients’ effort was within the accepted range. Changing the assist level resulted in paired changes in inspiratory effort and rate of the same tendency (increase or decrease) in all but four patients. Increasing the level in assist resulted in a 31% (8-44%) decrease in inspiratory effort and a 10% (0-18%) decrease in respiratory rate. The change in respiratory rate upon the change in assist correlated modestly with the change in the effort (R = 0.5). CONCLUSION: Changing assist level results in changes in both respiratory rate and effort in the same direction, with change in effort being greater than that of respiratory rate. Yet, neither the magnitude of respiratory rate change nor the resulting absolute value may reliably predict the level of effort after a change in assist.


id: cord-342730-b7y8mybg
author: Dellagi, Koussay
date: 2011-09-29
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21980532/
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0025738
title:
  Pandemic Influenza Due to pH1N1/2009 Virus: Estimation of Infection Burden in Reunion Island through a Prospective Serosurvey, Austral Winter 2009

abstract:
  BACKGROUND: To date, there is little information that reflects the true extent of spread of the pH1N1/2009v influenza pandemic at the community level as infection often results in mild or no clinical symptoms. This study aimed at assessing through a prospective study, the attack rate of pH1N1/2009 virus in Reunion Island and risk factors of infection, during the 2009 season. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A serosurvey was conducted during the 2009 austral winter, in the frame of a prospective population study. Pairs of sera were collected from 1687 individuals belonging to 772 households, during and after passage of the pandemic wave. Antibodies to pH1N1/2009v were titered using the hemagglutination inhibition assay (HIA) with titers ≥1/40 being considered positive. Seroprevalence during the first two weeks of detection of pH1N1/2009v in Reunion Island was 29.8% in people under 20 years of age, 35.6% in adults (20–59 years) and 73.3% in the elderly (≥60 years) (P<0.0001). Baseline corrected cumulative incidence rates, were 42.9%, 13.9% and 0% in these age groups respectively (P<0.0001). A significant decline in antibody titers occurred soon after the passage of the epidemic wave. Seroconversion rates to pH1N1/2009 correlated negatively with age: 63.2%, 39.4% and 16.7%, in each age group respectively (P<0.0001). Seroconversion occurred in 65.2% of individuals who were seronegative at inclusion compared to 6.8% in those who were initially seropositive. CONCLUSIONS: Seroincidence of pH1N1/2009v infection was three times that estimated from clinical surveillance, indicating that almost two thirds of infections occurring at the community level have escaped medical detection. People under 20 years of age were the most affected group. Pre-epidemic titers ≥1/40 prevented seroconversion and are likely protective against infection. A concern was raised about the long term stability of the antibody responses.


id: cord-344008-h4kc04w0
title: Urban Air Pollution May Enhance COVID-19 Case-Fatality and Mortality Rates in the United States
author: Liang, Donghai
date: 2020-09-21
url: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.xinn.2020.100047
doi: 10.1016/j.xinn.2020.100047
abstract:
  Background The novel human coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has claimed more than 600,000 lives worldwide, causing tremendous public health, social, and economic damages. While the risk factors of COVID-19 are still under investigation, environmental factors, such as urban air pollution, may play an important role in increasing population susceptibility to COVID-19 pathogenesis. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional nationwide study using zero-inflated negative binomial models to estimate the association between long-term (2010-2016) county-level exposures to NO2, PM2.5 and O3 and county-level COVID-19 case-fatality and mortality rates in the US. We used both single and multipollutant models and controlled for spatial trends and a comprehensive set of potential confounders, including state-level test positive rate, county-level healthcare capacity, phase-of-epidemic, population mobility, population density, sociodemographics, socioeconomic status, race and ethnicity, behavioral risk factors, and meteorology. Results 3,659,828 COVID-19 cases and 138,552 deaths were reported in 3,076 US counties from January 22, 2020 to July 17, 2020, with an overall observed case-fatality rate of 3.8%. County-level average NO2 concentrations were positively associated with both COVID-19 case-fatality rate and mortality rate in single-, bi-, and tri-pollutant models. When adjusted for co-pollutants, per inter-quartile range (IQR) increase in NO2 (4.6 ppb), COVID-19 case-fatality rate and mortality rate were associated with an increase of 11.3% (95% CI 4.9% to 18.2%) and 16.2% (95% CI 8.7% to 24.0%), respectively. We did not observe significant associations between COVID-19 case-fatality rate and long-term exposure to PM2.5 or O3, although per IQR increase in PM2.5 (2.6 ug/m3) was marginally associated with 14.9% (95% CI: 0.0% to 31.9%) increase in COVID-19 mortality rate when adjusted for co-pollutants. Discussion Long-term exposure to NO2, which largely arises from urban combustion sources such as traffic, may enhance susceptibility to severe COVID-19 outcomes, independent of long-term PM2.5 and O3 exposure. The results support targeted public health actions to protect residents from COVID-19 in heavily polluted regions with historically high NO2 levels. Continuation of current efforts to lower traffic emissions and ambient air pollution may be an important component of reducing population-level risk of COVID-19 case-fatality and mortality.


id: cord-344969-q1wqfeh7
title: Estimating the Effectiveness of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on COVID-19 Control in Korea
author: Min, Kyung-Duk
date: 2020-09-01
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32893522/
doi: 10.3346/jkms.2020.35.e321
abstract:
  BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has posed significant global public health challenges and created a substantial economic burden. Korea has experienced an extensive outbreak, which was linked to a religion-related super-spreading event. However, the implementation of various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), including social distancing, spring semester postponing, and extensive testing and contact tracing controlled the epidemic. Herein, we estimated the effectiveness of each NPI using a simulation model. METHODS: A compartment model with a susceptible-exposed-infectious-quarantined-hospitalized structure was employed. Using the Monte-Carlo-Markov-Chain algorithm with Gibbs' sampling method, we estimated the time-varying effective contact rate to calibrate the model with the reported daily new confirmed cases from February 12th to March 31st (7 weeks). Moreover, we conducted scenario analyses by adjusting the parameters to estimate the effectiveness of NPI. RESULTS: Relaxed social distancing among adults would have increased the number of cases 27.4-fold until the end of March. Spring semester non-postponement would have increased the number of cases 1.7-fold among individuals aged 0–19, while lower quarantine and detection rates would have increased the number of cases 1.4-fold. CONCLUSION: Among the three NPI measures, social distancing in adults showed the highest effectiveness. The substantial effect of social distancing should be considered when preparing for the 2nd wave of COVID-19.


id: cord-349548-loi1vs5y
title: Using random testing in a feedback-control loop to manage a safe exit from the COVID-19 lockdown
author: Mueller, Markus
date: 2020-04-14
url: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.09.20059360
doi: 10.1101/2020.04.09.20059360
abstract:
  We argue that frequent sampling of the fraction of infected people (either by random testing or by analysis of sewage water), is central to managing the COVID-19 pandemic because it both measures in real time the key variable controlled by restrictive measures, and anticipates the load on the healthcare system due to progression of the disease. Knowledge of random testing outcomes will (i) significantly improve the predictability of the pandemic, (ii) allow informed and optimized decisions on how to modify restrictive measures, with much shorter delay times than the present ones, and (iii) enable the real-time assessment of the efficiency of new means to reduce transmission rates. Here we suggest, irrespective of the size of a suitably homogeneous population, a conservative estimate of 15000 for the number of randomly tested people per day which will suffice to obtain reliable data about the current fraction of infections and its evolution in time, thus enabling close to real-time assessment of the quantitative effect of restrictive measures. Still higher testing capacity permits detection of geographical differences in spreading rates. Furthermore and most importantly, with daily sampling in place, a reboot could be attempted while the fraction of infected people is still an order of magnitude higher than the level required for a relaxation of restrictions with testing focused on symptomatic individuals. This is demonstrated by considering a feedback and control model of mitigation where the feed-back is derived from noisy sampling data.


id: cord-354117-aunut5gj
title: Relationship of George Floyd protests to increases in COVID-19 cases using event study methodology
author: Valentine, Randall
date: 2020-08-05
url: https://doi.org/10.1093/pubmed/fdaa127
doi: 10.1093/pubmed/fdaa127
abstract:
  BACKGROUND: Protests ignited by the George Floyd incident were examined for any significant impact on COVID-19 infection rates in select US cities. METHODS: Eight US cities were studied in which protestors in the tens of thousands were reported. Only cities that reside in states whose stay-at-home orders had been rescinded or expired for a minimum of 30 days were included in the sample to account for impact of growth rates solely due to economies reopening. Event study methodology was used with a 30-day estimation period to examine whether growth in COVID-19 infection rates was significant. RESULTS: In the eight cities analyzed, all had positive abnormal growth in infection rate. In six of the eight cities, infection rate growth was positive and significant. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, it was apparent that violations of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)-recommended social distancing guidelines caused a significant increase in infection rates. The data suggest that to slow the spread of COVID-19, CDC guidelines must be followed in protest situations.


