id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-284945-837qlk8y	Rahmandad, H.	Estimating the global spread of COVID-19	2020-06-26		.txt	text/plain	16602	1376	54	Using data for all 84 countries with reliable testing data (spanning 4.75 billion people) we develop a dynamic epidemiological model integrating data on cases, deaths, excess mortality and other factors to estimate how asymptomatic transmission, disease acuity, hospitalization, and behavioral and policy responses to risk condition prevalence and IFR across nations and over time. Our model captures transmission dynamics for the disease, as well as how, at the country level, transmission rates vary in response to risk perception and weather, testing rates condition infection and death data, and fatality rates depend on demographics and hospitalization. Using testing rate time series and various country-level data points (e.g. population, hospital capacity, comorbidities, age distribution), the model endogenously simulates confirmed new daily cases and deaths over time and matches them against observed data by maximizing the likelihood of observing those data given the model parameters.	./cache/cord-284945-837qlk8y.txt	./txt/cord-284945-837qlk8y.txt