id sid tid token lemma pos cord-102269-lfdvl78a 1 1 key key NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 1 2 : : : cord-102269-lfdvl78a 1 3 cord-102269-lfdvl78a cord-102269-lfdvl78a NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 1 4 authors author NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 1 5 : : : cord-102269-lfdvl78a 1 6 Singer singer NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 1 7 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 1 8 B. B. NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 1 9 J. J. NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 1 10 ; ; : cord-102269-lfdvl78a 1 11 Thompson Thompson NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 1 12 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 1 13 R. R. NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 1 14 N. N. NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 1 15 ; ; : cord-102269-lfdvl78a 1 16 Bonsall Bonsall NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 1 17 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 1 18 M. M. NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 1 19 B. B. NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 1 20 title title NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 1 21 : : : cord-102269-lfdvl78a 2 1 The the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 2 2 effect effect NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 2 3 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 2 4 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 2 5 definition definition NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 2 6 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 2 7 ' ' `` cord-102269-lfdvl78a 2 8 pandemic pandemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 2 9 ' ' '' cord-102269-lfdvl78a 2 10 on on IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 2 11 quantitative quantitative JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 2 12 assessments assessment NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 2 13 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 2 14 infectious infectious JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 2 15 disease disease NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 2 16 outbreak outbreak NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 2 17 risk risk NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 2 18 date date NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 2 19 : : : cord-102269-lfdvl78a 2 20 2020 2020 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 2 21 - - SYM cord-102269-lfdvl78a 2 22 10 10 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 2 23 - - HYPH cord-102269-lfdvl78a 2 24 05 05 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 2 25 journal journal NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 2 26 : : : cord-102269-lfdvl78a 2 27 nan nan NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 2 28 DOI DOI NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 2 29 : : : cord-102269-lfdvl78a 2 30 10.1101/2020.10.02.20205682 10.1101/2020.10.02.20205682 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 2 31 sha sha NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 2 32 : : : cord-102269-lfdvl78a 3 1 bd50aa14c03717ee77653d16adba52dc3af2ad64 bd50aa14c03717ee77653d16adba52dc3af2ad64 . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 4 1 doc_id doc_id CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 4 2 : : : cord-102269-lfdvl78a 4 3 102269 102269 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 4 4 cord_uid cord_uid NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 4 5 : : : cord-102269-lfdvl78a 5 1 lfdvl78a lfdvl78a JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 6 1 In in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 6 2 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 6 3 early early JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 6 4 stages stage NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 6 5 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 6 6 an an DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 6 7 outbreak outbreak NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 6 8 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 6 9 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 6 10 term term NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 6 11 ' ' `` cord-102269-lfdvl78a 6 12 pandemic pandemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 6 13 ' ' '' cord-102269-lfdvl78a 6 14 can can MD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 6 15 be be VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 6 16 used use VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 6 17 to to TO cord-102269-lfdvl78a 6 18 communicate communicate VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 6 19 about about IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 6 20 infectious infectious JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 6 21 disease disease NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 6 22 risk risk NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 6 23 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 6 24 particularly particularly RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 6 25 by by IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 6 26 those those DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 6 27 who who WP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 6 28 wish wish VBP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 6 29 to to TO cord-102269-lfdvl78a 6 30 encourage encourage VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 6 31 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 6 32 large large JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 6 33 - - HYPH cord-102269-lfdvl78a 6 34 scale scale NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 6 35 public public JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 6 36 health health NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 6 37 response response NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 6 38 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 7 1 However however RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 7 2 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 7 3 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 7 4 term term NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 7 5 lacks lack VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 7 6 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 7 7 widely widely RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 7 8 accepted accept VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 7 9 quantitative quantitative JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 7 10 definition definition NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 7 11 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 8 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 8 2 show show VBP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 8 3 that that IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 8 4 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 8 5 under under IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 8 6 alternative alternative JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 8 7 quantitative quantitative JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 8 8 definitions definition NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 8 9 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 8 10 ' ' `` cord-102269-lfdvl78a 8 11 pandemic pandemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 8 12 ' ' '' cord-102269-lfdvl78a 8 13 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 8 14 an an DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 8 15 epidemiological epidemiological JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 8 16 metapopulation metapopulation NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 8 17 model model NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 8 18 produces produce VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 8 19 different different JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 8 20 estimates estimate NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 8 21 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 8 22 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 8 23 probability probability NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 8 24 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 8 25 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 8 26 pandemic pandemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 8 27 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 9 1 Critically critically RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 9 2 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 9 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 9 4 show show VBP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 9 5 that that IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 9 6 using use VBG cord-102269-lfdvl78a 9 7 different different JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 9 8 definitions definition NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 9 9 alters alter VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 9 10 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 9 11 projected project VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 9 12 effects effect NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 9 13 on on IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 9 14 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 9 15 pandemic pandemic JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 9 16 risk risk NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 9 17 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 9 18 key key JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 9 19 parameters parameter NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 9 20 such such JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 9 21 as as IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 9 22 inter inter JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 9 23 - - JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 9 24 regional regional JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 9 25 travel travel NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 9 26 rates rate NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 9 27 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 9 28 degree degree NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 9 29 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 9 30 pre pre JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 9 31 - - JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 9 32 existing existing JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 9 33 immunity immunity NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 9 34 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 9 35 and and CC cord-102269-lfdvl78a 9 36 heterogeneity heterogeneity NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 9 37 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 9 38 transmission transmission NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 9 39 rates rate NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 9 40 between between IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 9 41 regions region NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 9 42 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 10 1 Our -PRON- PRP$ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 10 2 analysis analysis NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 10 3 provides provide VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 10 4 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 10 5 foundation foundation NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 10 6 for for IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 10 7 understanding understand VBG cord-102269-lfdvl78a 10 8 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 10 9 scientific scientific JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 10 10 importance importance NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 10 11 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 10 12 precise precise JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 10 13 language language NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 10 14 when when WRB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 10 15 discussing discuss VBG cord-102269-lfdvl78a 10 16 pandemic pandemic JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 10 17 risk risk NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 10 18 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 10 19 illustrating illustrate VBG cord-102269-lfdvl78a 10 20 how how WRB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 10 21 alternate alternate JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 10 22 definitions definition NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 10 23 affect affect VBP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 10 24 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 10 25 conclusions conclusion NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 10 26 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 10 27 modelling modelling NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 10 28 studies study NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 10 29 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 11 1 This this DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 11 2 serves serve VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 11 3 to to TO cord-102269-lfdvl78a 11 4 highlight highlight VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 11 5 that that IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 11 6 those those DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 11 7 working work VBG cord-102269-lfdvl78a 11 8 on on IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 11 9 pandemic pandemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 11 10 preparedness preparedness NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 11 11 must must MD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 11 12 remain remain VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 11 13 alert alert JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 11 14 to to IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 11 15 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 11 16 variability variability NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 11 17 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 11 18 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 11 19 use use NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 11 20 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 11 21 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 11 22 term term NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 11 23 ' ' `` cord-102269-lfdvl78a 11 24 pandemic pandemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 11 25 ' ' '' cord-102269-lfdvl78a 11 26 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 11 27 and and CC cord-102269-lfdvl78a 11 28 provide provide VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 11 29 specific specific JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 11 30 quantitative quantitative NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 11 31 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 11 32 analysis analysis NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 11 33 that that WDT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 11 34 we -PRON- PRP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 11 35 show show VBP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 11 36 to to TO cord-102269-lfdvl78a 11 37 be be VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 11 38 sensitive sensitive JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 11 39 to to IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 11 40 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 11 41 pandemic pandemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 11 42 definition definition NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 11 43 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 12 1 In in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 12 2 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 12 3 early early JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 12 4 stages stage NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 12 5 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 12 6 an an DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 12 7 infectious infectious JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 12 8 disease disease NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 12 9 outbreak outbreak NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 12 10 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 12 11 it -PRON- PRP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 12 12 is be VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 12 13 important important JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 12 14 to to TO cord-102269-lfdvl78a 12 15 determine determine VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 12 16 whether whether IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 12 17 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 12 18 pathogen pathogen NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 12 19 18 18 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 12 20 responsible responsible JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 12 21 may may MD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 12 22 go go VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 12 23 on on RP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 12 24 to to TO cord-102269-lfdvl78a 12 25 cause cause VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 12 26 an an DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 12 27 epidemic epidemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 12 28 or or CC cord-102269-lfdvl78a 12 29 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 12 30 pandemic pandemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 12 31 [ [ -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 12 32 1 1 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 12 33 ] ] -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 12 34 [ [ -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 12 35 2 2 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 12 36 ] ] -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 12 37 [ [ -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 12 38 3 3 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 12 39 ] ] -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 12 40 [ [ -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 12 41 4 4 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 12 42 ] ] -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 12 43 [ [ -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 12 44 5 5 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 12 45 ] ] -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 12 46 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 13 1 There there EX cord-102269-lfdvl78a 13 2 is be VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 13 3 extensive extensive JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 13 4 literature literature NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 13 5 on on IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 13 6 determining determine VBG cord-102269-lfdvl78a 13 7 19 19 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 13 8 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 13 9 probability probability NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 13 10 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 13 11 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 13 12 major major JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 13 13 epidemic epidemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 13 14 given give VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 13 15 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 13 16 small small JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 13 17 population population NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 13 18 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 13 19 initial initial JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 13 20 infected infected JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 13 21 hosts host NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 13 22 [ [ -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 13 23 6 6 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 13 24 ] ] -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 13 25 [ [ -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 13 26 7 7 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 13 27 ] ] -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 13 28 [ [ -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 13 29 8 8 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 13 30 ] ] -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 13 31 [ [ -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 13 32 9 9 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 13 33 ] ] -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 13 34 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 14 1 This this DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 14 2 research research NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 14 3 has have VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 14 4 20 20 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 14 5 produced produce VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 14 6 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 14 7 natural natural JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 14 8 mathematical mathematical JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 14 9 definition definition NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 14 10 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 14 11 an an DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 14 12 epidemic epidemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 14 13 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 14 14 based base VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 14 15 on on IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 14 16 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 14 17 bimodal bimodal JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 14 18 distribution distribution NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 14 19 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 14 20 outbreak outbreak NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 14 21 21 21 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 14 22 sizes size NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 14 23 given give VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 14 24 by by IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 14 25 simple simple JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 14 26 epidemiological epidemiological JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 14 27 models model NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 14 28 when when WRB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 14 29 R0 R0 NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 14 30 is be VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 14 31 larger large JJR cord-102269-lfdvl78a 14 32 but but CC cord-102269-lfdvl78a 14 33 not not RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 14 34 close close JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 14 35 to to IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 14 36 one one CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 14 37 [ [ -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 14 38 10 10 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 14 39 ] ] -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 14 40 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 15 1 The the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 15 2 term term NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 15 3 ' ' `` cord-102269-lfdvl78a 15 4 pandemic pandemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 15 5 ' ' '' cord-102269-lfdvl78a 15 6 22 22 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 15 7 has have VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 15 8 no no DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 15 9 corresponding correspond VBG cord-102269-lfdvl78a 15 10 theoretical theoretical JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 15 11 definition definition NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 15 12 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 15 13 and and CC cord-102269-lfdvl78a 15 14 there there EX cord-102269-lfdvl78a 15 15 is be VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 15 16 no no DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 15 17 consensus consensus NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 15 18 mathematical mathematical JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 15 19 approach approach NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 15 20 to to IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 15 21 determining determine VBG cord-102269-lfdvl78a 15 22 23 23 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 15 23 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 15 24 probability probability NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 15 25 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 15 26 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 15 27 pandemic pandemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 15 28 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 16 1 In in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 16 2 this this DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 16 3 study study NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 16 4 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 16 5 we -PRON- PRP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 16 6 examine examine VBP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 16 7 how how WRB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 16 8 alternative alternative JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 16 9 definitions definition NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 16 10 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 16 11 ' ' `` cord-102269-lfdvl78a 16 12 pandemic pandemic JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 16 13 ' ' '' cord-102269-lfdvl78a 16 14 affect affect VBP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 16 15 24 24 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 16 16 quantitative quantitative JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 16 17 estimates estimate NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 16 18 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 16 19 pandemic pandemic JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 16 20 risk risk NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 16 21 assessed assess VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 16 22 early early RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 16 23 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 16 24 an an DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 16 25 infectious infectious JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 16 26 disease disease NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 16 27 outbreak outbreak NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 16 28 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 17 1 25 25 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 18 1 The the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 18 2 term term NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 18 3 ' ' `` cord-102269-lfdvl78a 18 4 pandemic pandemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 18 5 ' ' '' cord-102269-lfdvl78a 18 6 is be VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 18 7 used use VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 18 8 extensively extensively RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 18 9 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 18 10 appearing appear VBG cord-102269-lfdvl78a 18 11 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 18 12 phrases phrase NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 18 13 such such JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 18 14 as as IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 18 15 ' ' `` cord-102269-lfdvl78a 18 16 pandemic pandemic NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 18 17 preparedness preparedness NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 18 18 ' ' '' cord-102269-lfdvl78a 18 19 [ [ -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 18 20 11 11 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 18 21 ] ] -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 18 22 [ [ -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 18 23 12 12 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 18 24 ] ] -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 18 25 [ [ -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 18 26 13 13 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 18 27 ] ] -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 18 28 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 18 29 26 26 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 18 30 ' ' POS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 18 31 pandemic pandemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 18 32 influenza influenza NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 18 33 ' ' '' cord-102269-lfdvl78a 18 34 [ [ -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 18 35 14 14 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 18 36 ] ] -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 18 37 [ [ -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 18 38 15 15 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 18 39 ] ] -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 18 40 [ [ -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 18 41 16 16 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 18 42 ] ] -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 18 43 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 18 44 and and CC cord-102269-lfdvl78a 18 45 ' ' `` cord-102269-lfdvl78a 18 46 pandemic pandemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 18 47 potential potential NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 18 48 ' ' '' cord-102269-lfdvl78a 18 49 [ [ -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 18 50 17 17 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 18 51 ] ] -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 18 52 [ [ -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 18 53 18 18 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 18 54 ] ] -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 18 55 [ [ -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 18 56 19 19 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 18 57 ] ] -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 18 58 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 19 1 A a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 19 2 Google Google NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 19 3 Scholar Scholar NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 19 4 search search NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 19 5 returns return VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 19 6 25,800 25,800 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 19 7 27 27 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 19 8 results result NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 19 9 using use VBG cord-102269-lfdvl78a 19 10 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 19 11 term term NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 19 12 ' ' `` cord-102269-lfdvl78a 19 13 pandemic pandemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 19 14 ' ' '' cord-102269-lfdvl78a 19 15 for for IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 19 16 2019 2019 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 19 17 alone alone RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 19 18 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 20 1 28 28 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 21 1 The the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 21 2 International International NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 21 3 Epidemiology Epidemiology NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 21 4 Association Association NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 21 5 's 's POS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 21 6 Dictionary Dictionary NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 21 7 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 21 8 Epidemiology Epidemiology NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 21 9 defines define VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 21 10 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 21 11 pandemic pandemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 21 12 as as IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 21 13 " " `` cord-102269-lfdvl78a 21 14 an an DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 21 15 29 29 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 21 16 epidemic epidemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 21 17 occurring occur VBG cord-102269-lfdvl78a 21 18 worldwide worldwide RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 21 19 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 21 20 or or CC cord-102269-lfdvl78a 21 21 over over IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 21 22 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 21 23 very very RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 21 24 wide wide JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 21 25 area area NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 21 26 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 21 27 crossing cross VBG cord-102269-lfdvl78a 21 28 international international JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 21 29 boundaries boundary NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 21 30 and and CC cord-102269-lfdvl78a 21 31 usually usually RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 21 32 30 30 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 21 33 affecting affect VBG cord-102269-lfdvl78a 21 34 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 21 35 large large JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 21 36 number number NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 21 37 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 21 38 people people NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 21 39 " " '' cord-102269-lfdvl78a 21 40 [ [ -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 21 41 20 20 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 21 42 ] ] -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 21 43 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 22 1 Notably notably RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 22 2 this this DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 22 3 definition definition NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 22 4 makes make VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 22 5 an an DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 22 6 explicit explicit JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 22 7 reference reference NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 22 8 to to IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 22 9 national national JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 22 10 there there EX cord-102269-lfdvl78a 22 11 is be VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 22 12 little little JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 22 13 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 22 14 common common JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 22 15 between between IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 22 16 all all DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 22 17 disease disease NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 22 18 outbreaks outbreak NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 22 19 that that WDT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 22 20 have have VBP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 22 21 been be VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 22 22 referred refer VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 22 23 to to IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 22 24 as as IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 22 25 pandemics pandemic NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 22 26 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 22 27 except except IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 22 28 that that IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 22 29 36 36 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 22 30 they -PRON- PRP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 22 31 have have VBP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 22 32 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 22 33 wide wide JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 22 34 geographical geographical JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 22 35 extension extension NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 22 36 [ [ -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 22 37 24 24 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 22 38 ] ] -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 22 39 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 23 1 37 37 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 23 2 These these DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 23 3 kinds kind NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 23 4 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 23 5 differences difference NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 23 6 between between IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 23 7 pandemic pandemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 23 8 definitions definition NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 23 9 can can MD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 23 10 often often RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 23 11 go go VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 23 12 unnoticed unnoticed JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 23 13 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 23 14 but but CC cord-102269-lfdvl78a 23 15 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 23 16 certain certain JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 23 17 circum-38 circum-38 NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 23 18 stances stance NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 23 19 they -PRON- PRP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 23 20 can can MD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 23 21 cause cause VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 23 22 confusion confusion NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 23 23 between between IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 23 24 different different JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 23 25 stakeholders stakeholder NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 23 26 ( ( -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 23 27 e.g. e.g. RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 23 28 between between IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 23 29 scientists scientist NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 23 30 and and CC cord-102269-lfdvl78a 23 31 governments government NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 23 32 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 23 33 or or CC cord-102269-lfdvl78a 23 34 39 39 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 23 35 governments government NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 23 36 and and CC cord-102269-lfdvl78a 23 37 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 23 38 public public NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 23 39 ) ) -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 23 40 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 23 41 who who WP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 23 42 may may MD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 23 43 not not RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 23 44 have have VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 23 45 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 23 46 shared share VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 23 47 background background NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 23 48 understanding understanding NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 23 49 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 23 50 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 23 51 term term NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 23 52 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 24 1 In in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 24 2 2009 2009 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 24 3 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 24 4 40 40 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 24 5 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 24 6 World World NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 24 7 Health Health NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 24 8 Organisation Organisation NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 24 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 24 10 WHO who WP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 24 11 ) ) -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 24 12 declared declare VBD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 24 13 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 24 14 pandemic pandemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 24 15 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 24 16 H1N1 H1N1 NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 24 17 influenza influenza NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 24 18 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 24 19 using use VBG cord-102269-lfdvl78a 24 20 criteria criterion NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 24 21 related relate VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 24 22 to to IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 24 23 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 24 24 41 41 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 24 25 incidence incidence NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 24 26 and and CC cord-102269-lfdvl78a 24 27 spread spread NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 24 28 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 24 29 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 24 30 virus virus NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 24 31 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 24 32 different different JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 24 33 WHO WHO NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 24 34 regions region NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 24 35 [ [ -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 24 36 25 25 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 24 37 ] ] -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 24 38 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 25 1 The the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 25 2 criteria criterion NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 25 3 did do VBD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 25 4 not not RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 25 5 include include VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 25 6 reference reference NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 25 7 to to IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 25 8 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 25 9 novel novel JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 25 10 viruses virus NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 25 11 [ [ -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 25 12 36 36 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 25 13 ] ] -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 25 14 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 26 1 Others other NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 26 2 treat treat VBP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 26 3 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 26 4 spread spread NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 26 5 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 26 6 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 26 7 pathogen pathogen NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 26 8 at at IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 26 9 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 26 10 pandemic pandemic JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 26 11 level level NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 26 12 as as IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 26 13 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 26 14 context context NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 26 15 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 26 16 which which WDT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 26 17 to to IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 26 18 59 59 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 26 19 study study NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 26 20 transmission transmission NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 26 21 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 26 22 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 26 23 without without IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 26 24 paying pay VBG cord-102269-lfdvl78a 26 25 special special JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 26 26 attention attention NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 26 27 to to IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 26 28 how how WRB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 26 29 those those DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 26 30 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 26 31 lead lead VBP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 26 32 to to IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 26 33 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 26 34 pandemic pandemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 26 35 60 60 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 26 36 as as RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 26 37 distinct distinct JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 26 38 from from IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 26 39 an an DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 26 40 epidemic epidemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 26 41 or or CC cord-102269-lfdvl78a 26 42 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 26 43 more more RBR cord-102269-lfdvl78a 26 44 limited limited JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 26 45 outbreak outbreak NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 26 46 [ [ -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 26 47 37 37 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 26 48 ] ] -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 26 49 [ [ -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 26 50 38 38 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 26 51 ] ] -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 26 52 [ [ -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 26 53 39 39 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 26 54 ] ] -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 26 55 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 27 1 In in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 27 2 this this DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 27 3 paper paper NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 27 4 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 27 5 we -PRON- PRP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 27 6 examine examine VBP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 27 7 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 27 8 effects effect NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 27 9 61 61 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 27 10 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 27 11 alternate alternate JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 27 12 pandemic pandemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 27 13 definitions definition NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 27 14 on on IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 27 15 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 27 16 analysis analysis NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 27 17 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 27 18 key key JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 27 19 epidemiological epidemiological JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 27 20 questions question NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 27 21 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 28 1 The the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 28 2 results result NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 28 3 provide provide VBP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 28 4 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 28 5 62 62 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 28 6 foundation foundation NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 28 7 for for IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 28 8 deciding decide VBG cord-102269-lfdvl78a 28 9 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 28 10 appropriate appropriate JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 28 11 quantitative quantitative JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 28 12 definition definition NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 28 13 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 28 14 ' ' `` cord-102269-lfdvl78a 28 15 pandemic pandemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 28 16 ' ' '' cord-102269-lfdvl78a 28 17 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 28 18 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 28 19 given give VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 28 20 context context NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 28 21 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 29 1 63 63 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 30 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 30 2 make make VBP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 30 3 use use NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 30 4 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 30 5 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 30 6 metapopulation metapopulation NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 30 7 model model NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 30 8 to to TO cord-102269-lfdvl78a 30 9 investigate investigate VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 30 10 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 30 11 effects effect NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 30 12 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 30 13 pandemic pandemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 30 14 definition definition NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 30 15 on on IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 30 16 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 30 17 results result NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 30 18 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 30 19 64 64 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 30 20 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 30 21 quantitative quantitative JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 30 22 assessment assessment NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 30 23 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 30 24 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 30 25 probability probability NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 30 26 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 30 27 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 30 28 pandemic pandemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 30 29 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 31 1 Metapopulation metapopulation NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 31 2 models model NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 31 3 are be VBP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 31 4 commonly commonly RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 31 5 applied apply VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 31 6 to to IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 31 7 65 65 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 31 8 pathogens pathogen NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 31 9 that that WDT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 31 10 spread spread VBD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 31 11 between between IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 31 12 regions region NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 31 13 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 31 14 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 31 15 world world NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 31 16 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 31 17 and and CC cord-102269-lfdvl78a 31 18 so so RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 31 19 are be VBP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 31 20 appropriate appropriate JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 31 21 for for IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 31 22 modelling model VBG cord-102269-lfdvl78a 31 23 pandemics pandemic NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 31 24 [ [ -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 31 25 40 40 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 31 26 ] ] -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 31 27 [ [ -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 31 28 41 41 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 31 29 ] ] -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 32 1 [ [ -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 32 2 42 42 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 32 3 ] ] -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 32 4 [ [ -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 32 5 43 43 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 32 6 ] ] -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 32 7 [ [ -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 32 8 44 44 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 32 9 ] ] -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 32 10 [ [ -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 32 11 45 45 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 32 12 ] ] -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 32 13 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 33 1 66 66 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 34 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 34 2 explore explore VBP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 34 3 two two CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 34 4 different different JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 34 5 kinds kind NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 34 6 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 34 7 pandemic pandemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 34 8 definition definition NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 34 9 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 34 10 following follow VBG cord-102269-lfdvl78a 34 11 Morens Morens NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 34 12 et et FW cord-102269-lfdvl78a 34 13 al al NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 34 14 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 35 1 2009 2009 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 35 2 [ [ -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 35 3 24 24 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 35 4 ] ] -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 35 5 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 35 6 specifically specifically RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 35 7 : : : cord-102269-lfdvl78a 36 1 • • NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 36 2 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 36 3 family family NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 36 4 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 36 5 transregional transregional NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 36 6 definitions definition NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 36 7 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 36 8 where where WRB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 36 9 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 36 10 pandemic pandemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 36 11 is be VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 36 12 defined define VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 36 13 as as IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 36 14 an an DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 36 15 outbreak outbreak NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 36 16 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 36 17 which which WDT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 36 18 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 36 19 68 68 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 36 20 number number NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 36 21 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 36 22 regions region NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 36 23 experiencing experience VBG cord-102269-lfdvl78a 36 24 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 36 25 meets meet VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 36 26 or or CC cord-102269-lfdvl78a 36 27 exceeds exceed VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 36 28 some some DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 36 29 threshold threshold NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 36 30 number number NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 37 1 n. n. NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 38 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 38 2 refer refer VBP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 38 3 to to IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 38 4 69 69 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 38 5 specific specific JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 38 6 transregional transregional JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 38 7 definitions definition NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 38 8 as as IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 38 9 n n NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 38 10 - - HYPH cord-102269-lfdvl78a 38 11 region region NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 38 12 transregional transregional NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 38 13 definitions definition NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 38 14 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 38 15 e.g. e.g. RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 38 16 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 38 17 3-region 3-region CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 38 18 transregional transregional NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 38 19 70 70 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 38 20 definition definition NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 38 21 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 39 1 • • NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 39 2 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 39 3 interregional interregional JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 39 4 definition definition NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 39 5 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 39 6 where where WRB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 39 7 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 39 8 pandemic pandemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 39 9 is be VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 39 10 defined define VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 39 11 as as IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 39 12 an an DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 39 13 outbreak outbreak NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 39 14 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 39 15 which which WDT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 39 16 two two CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 39 17 or or CC cord-102269-lfdvl78a 39 18 more more JJR cord-102269-lfdvl78a 39 19 non-72 non-72 JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 39 20 adjacent adjacent JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 39 21 regions region NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 39 22 experience experience VBP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 39 23 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 39 24 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 40 1 Note note VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 40 2 that that IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 40 3 these these DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 40 4 definitions definition NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 40 5 require require VBP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 40 6 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 40 7 specific specific JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 40 8 sense sense NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 40 9 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 40 10 ' ' `` cord-102269-lfdvl78a 40 11 region region NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 40 12 ' ' '' cord-102269-lfdvl78a 40 13 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 41 1 These these DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 41 2 regions region NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 41 3 could could MD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 41 4 be be VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 41 5 countries country NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 41 6 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 41 7 or or CC cord-102269-lfdvl78a 41 8 they -PRON- PRP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 41 9 74 74 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 41 10 could could MD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 41 11 be be VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 41 12 larger large JJR cord-102269-lfdvl78a 41 13 or or CC cord-102269-lfdvl78a 41 14 smaller small JJR cord-102269-lfdvl78a 41 15 than than IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 41 16 individual individual JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 41 17 countries country NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 41 18 - - : cord-102269-lfdvl78a 41 19 from from IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 41 20 counties county NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 41 21 to to IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 41 22 health health NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 41 23 zones zone NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 41 24 to to IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 41 25 WHO WHO NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 41 26 regions region NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 41 27 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 42 1 Our -PRON- PRP$ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 42 2 75 75 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 42 3 metapopulation metapopulation NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 42 4 model model NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 42 5 ( ( -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 42 6 detailed detail VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 42 7 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 42 8 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 42 9 Methods method NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 42 10 section section NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 42 11 below below IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 42 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 42 13 can can MD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 42 14 be be VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 42 15 used use VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 42 16 to to TO cord-102269-lfdvl78a 42 17 model model VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 42 18 regions region NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 42 19 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 42 20 any any DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 42 21 size size NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 42 22 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 43 1 76 76 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 44 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 44 2 have have VBP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 44 3 chosen choose VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 44 4 not not RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 44 5 to to TO cord-102269-lfdvl78a 44 6 include include VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 44 7 definitions definition NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 44 8 with with IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 44 9 criteria criterion NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 44 10 relating relate VBG cord-102269-lfdvl78a 44 11 to to IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 44 12 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 44 13 number number NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 44 14 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 44 15 people people NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 44 16 infected infect VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 44 17 or or CC cord-102269-lfdvl78a 44 18 killed kill VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 44 19 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 44 20 77 77 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 44 21 instead instead RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 44 22 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 44 23 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 44 24 or or CC cord-102269-lfdvl78a 44 25 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 44 26 addition addition NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 44 27 to to IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 44 28 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 44 29 geographical geographical JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 44 30 extension extension NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 44 31 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 45 1 Extension extension NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 45 2 is be VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 45 3 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 45 4 only only JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 45 5 universal universal JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 45 6 factor factor NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 45 7 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 45 8 pandemic pandemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 45 9 78 78 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 45 10 definitions definition NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 45 11 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 45 12 and and CC cord-102269-lfdvl78a 45 13 so so RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 45 14 is be VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 45 15 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 45 16 focus focus NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 45 17 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 45 18 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 45 19 current current JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 45 20 study study NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 45 21 [ [ -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 45 22 24 24 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 45 23 ] ] -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 45 24 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 46 1 Three three CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 46 2 questions question NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 46 3 that that WDT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 46 4 feed feed VBP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 46 5 into into IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 46 6 public public JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 46 7 health health NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 46 8 policy policy NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 46 9 at at IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 46 10 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 46 11 beginning beginning NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 46 12 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 46 13 an an DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 46 14 outbreak outbreak NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 46 15 are be VBP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 46 16 : : : cord-102269-lfdvl78a 46 17 • • NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 46 18 Would Would MD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 46 19 interventions intervention NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 46 20 restricting restrict VBG cord-102269-lfdvl78a 46 21 travel travel NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 46 22 reduce reduce VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 46 23 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 46 24 risk risk NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 46 25 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 46 26 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 46 27 pandemic pandemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 46 28 ? ? . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 47 1 • • NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 48 1 Does do VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 48 2 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 48 3 portion portion NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 48 4 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 48 5 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 48 6 population population NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 48 7 have have VBP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 48 8 pre pre VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 48 9 - - JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 48 10 existing existing JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 48 11 immunity immunity NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 48 12 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 48 13 and and CC cord-102269-lfdvl78a 48 14 does do VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 48 15 this this DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 48 16 affect affect VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 48 17 pandemic pandemic JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 48 18 risk risk NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 48 19 ? ? . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 49 1 whose whose WP$ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 49 2 connections connection NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 49 3 and and CC cord-102269-lfdvl78a 49 4 weighting weighting NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 49 5 can can MD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 49 6 be be VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 49 7 set set VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 49 8 at at IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 49 9 fixed fix VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 49 10 values value NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 49 11 representing represent VBG cord-102269-lfdvl78a 49 12 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 49 13 rates rate NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 49 14 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 49 15 travel travel NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 49 16 between between IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 49 17 regions region NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 49 18 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 50 1 95 95 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 2 choose choose VBP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 3 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 4 simplest simple JJS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 5 networks network NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 6 that that WDT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 7 can can MD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 8 illustrate illustrate VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 9 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 10 effects effect NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 11 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 12 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 13 different different JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 14 pandemic pandemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 15 definitions definition NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 16 - - : cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 17 namely namely RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 18 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 19 96 96 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 20 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 21 star star NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 22 network network NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 23 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 24 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 25 which which WDT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 26 one one CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 27 central central JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 28 region region NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 29 is be VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 30 connected connect VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 31 to to IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 32 all all DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 33 others other NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 34 with with IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 35 equal equal JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 36 weighting weighting NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 37 and and CC cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 38 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 39 non-97 non-97 JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 40 central central JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 41 regions region NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 42 lack lack VBP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 43 any any DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 44 other other JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 45 connections connection NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 46 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 47 and and CC cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 48 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 49 fully fully RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 50 connected connect VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 51 network network NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 52 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 53 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 54 which which WDT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 55 each each DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 56 region region NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 57 is be VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 58 connected connect VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 59 98 98 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 60 to to IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 61 every every DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 62 other other JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 63 with with IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 64 equal equal JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 65 weighting weighting NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 51 66 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 52 1 Figure figure NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 52 2 1 1 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 52 3 illustrates illustrate VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 52 4 that that IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 52 5 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 52 6 connectivity connectivity NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 52 7 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 52 8 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 52 9 full full JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 52 10 network network NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 52 11 is be VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 52 12 much much JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 52 13 99 99 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 52 14 higher high JJR cord-102269-lfdvl78a 52 15 than than IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 52 16 that that DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 52 17 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 52 18 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 52 19 star star NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 52 20 network network NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 52 21 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 53 1 Using use VBG cord-102269-lfdvl78a 53 2 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 53 3 star star NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 53 4 network network NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 53 5 allows allow VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 53 6 us -PRON- PRP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 53 7 to to TO cord-102269-lfdvl78a 53 8 make make VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 53 9 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 53 10 distinction distinction NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 53 11 between between IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 53 12 100 100 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 53 13 adjacent adjacent JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 53 14 and and CC cord-102269-lfdvl78a 53 15 non non JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 53 16 - - JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 53 17 adjacent adjacent JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 53 18 regions region NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 53 19 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 53 20 thus thus RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 53 21 allowing allow VBG cord-102269-lfdvl78a 53 22 us -PRON- PRP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 53 23 to to TO cord-102269-lfdvl78a 53 24 distinguish distinguish VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 53 25 between between IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 53 26 transregional transregional NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 53 27 and and CC cord-102269-lfdvl78a 53 28 interregional interregional JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 53 29 101 101 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 53 30 pandemic pandemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 53 31 definitions definition NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 53 32 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 54 1 Unless unless IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 54 2 otherwise otherwise RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 54 3 stated state VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 54 4 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 54 5 all all DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 54 6 figures figure NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 54 7 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 54 8 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 54 9 current current JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 54 10 study study NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 54 11 are be VBP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 54 12 generated generate VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 54 13 with with IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 54 14 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 54 15 transmission transmission NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 54 16 rate rate NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 54 17 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 54 18 β β NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 54 19 = = SYM cord-102269-lfdvl78a 54 20 0.28 0.28 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 54 21 103 103 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 54 22 per per IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 54 23 day day NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 54 24 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 54 25 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 54 26 recovery recovery NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 54 27 rate rate NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 54 28 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 54 29 µ µ NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 54 30 = = SYM cord-102269-lfdvl78a 54 31 0.14 0.14 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 54 32 per per IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 54 33 day day NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 54 34 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 54 35 and and CC cord-102269-lfdvl78a 54 36 an an DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 54 37 inter inter JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 54 38 - - JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 54 39 regional regional JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 54 40 travel travel NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 54 41 rate rate NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 54 42 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 54 43 2 2 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 54 44 × × CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 54 45 10 10 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 54 46 −4 −4 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 54 47 per per IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 54 48 day day NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 54 49 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 55 1 This this DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 55 2 : : : cord-102269-lfdvl78a 55 3 Pandemic pandemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 55 4 probability probability NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 55 5 for for IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 55 6 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 55 7 range range NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 55 8 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 55 9 between between IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 55 10 - - HYPH cord-102269-lfdvl78a 55 11 region region NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 55 12 transmission transmission NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 55 13 rates rate NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 55 14 and and CC cord-102269-lfdvl78a 55 15 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 55 16 range range NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 55 17 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 55 18 pandemic pandemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 55 19 definitions definition NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 55 20 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 55 21 terms term NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 55 22 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 55 23 number number NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 55 24 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 55 25 regions region NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 55 26 experiencing experience VBG cord-102269-lfdvl78a 55 27 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 55 28 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 56 1 The the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 56 2 " " `` cord-102269-lfdvl78a 56 3 pandemic pandemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 56 4 threshold threshold NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 56 5 number number NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 56 6 " " '' cord-102269-lfdvl78a 56 7 refers refer VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 56 8 to to IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 56 9 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 56 10 minimum minimum JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 56 11 number number NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 56 12 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 56 13 regions region NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 56 14 that that WDT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 56 15 must must MD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 56 16 experience experience VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 56 17 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 56 18 before before IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 56 19 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 56 20 pandemic pandemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 56 21 is be VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 56 22 declared declare VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 56 23 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 57 1 Pandemic pandemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 57 2 probability probability NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 57 3 is be VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 57 4 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 57 5 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 57 6 general general JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 57 7 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 57 8 sensitive sensitive JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 57 9 to to IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 57 10 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 57 11 pandemic pandemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 57 12 definition definition NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 57 13 used use VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 57 14 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 57 15 but but CC cord-102269-lfdvl78a 57 16 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 57 17 degree degree NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 57 18 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 57 19 sensitivity sensitivity NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 57 20 depends depend VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 57 21 on on IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 57 22 network network NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 57 23 structure structure NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 57 24 and and CC cord-102269-lfdvl78a 57 25 travel travel NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 57 26 rates rate NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 57 27 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 58 1 a a LS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 58 2 ) ) -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 58 3 Pandemic pandemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 58 4 probability probability NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 58 5 for for IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 58 6 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 58 7 star star NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 58 8 network network NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 58 9 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 59 1 Pandemic pandemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 59 2 probability probability NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 59 3 is be VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 59 4 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 59 5 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 59 6 general general JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 59 7 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 59 8 highly highly RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 59 9 sensitive sensitive JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 59 10 to to IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 59 11 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 59 12 pandemic pandemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 59 13 definition definition NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 59 14 used use VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 59 15 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 60 1 b b LS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 60 2 ) ) -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 60 3 Pandemic pandemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 60 4 probability probability NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 60 5 for for IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 60 6 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 60 7 fully fully RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 60 8 connected connect VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 60 9 network network NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 60 10 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 61 1 The the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 61 2 sensitivity sensitivity NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 61 3 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 61 4 pandemic pandemic JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 61 5 probability probability NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 61 6 to to IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 61 7 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 61 8 pandemic pandemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 61 9 definition definition NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 61 10 used use VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 61 11 is be VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 61 12 significantly significantly RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 61 13 reduced reduce VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 61 14 at at IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 61 15 high high JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 61 16 travel travel NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 61 17 rates rate NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 61 18 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 62 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 62 2 can can MD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 62 3 also also RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 62 4 look look VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 62 5 at at IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 62 6 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 62 7 difference difference NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 62 8 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 62 9 pandemic pandemic JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 62 10 probability probability NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 62 11 between between IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 62 12 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 62 13 transregional transregional NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 62 14 and and CC cord-102269-lfdvl78a 62 15 interregional interregional JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 62 16 is be VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 62 17 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 62 18 author author NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 62 19 / / SYM cord-102269-lfdvl78a 62 20 funder funder NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 62 21 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 62 22 who who WP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 62 23 has have VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 62 24 granted grant VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 62 25 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 62 26 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 62 27 license license NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 62 28 to to TO cord-102269-lfdvl78a 62 29 display display VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 62 30 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 62 31 preprint preprint NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 62 32 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 62 33 ( ( -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 62 34 which which WDT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 62 35 was be VBD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 62 36 not not RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 62 37 certified certify VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 62 38 by by IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 62 39 peer peer NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 62 40 review review NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 62 41 ) ) -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 62 42 preprint preprint NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 63 1 The the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 63 2 copyright copyright NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 63 3 holder holder NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 63 4 for for IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 63 5 this this DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 63 6 this this DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 63 7 version version NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 63 8 posted post VBD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 63 9 October October NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 63 10 5 5 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 63 11 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 63 12 2020 2020 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 63 13 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 63 14 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 64 1 per per IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 64 2 day day NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 64 3 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 65 1 In in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 65 2 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 65 3 full full JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 65 4 network network NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 65 5 there there EX cord-102269-lfdvl78a 65 6 is be VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 65 7 sudden sudden JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 65 8 transition transition NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 65 9 from from IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 65 10 higher high JJR cord-102269-lfdvl78a 65 11 risk risk NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 65 12 to to TO cord-102269-lfdvl78a 65 13 lower lower VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 65 14 risk risk NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 65 15 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 65 16 as as IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 65 17 cross cross NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 65 18 - - NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 65 19 immunity immunity NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 65 20 162 162 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 65 21 approaches approach VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 65 22 one one CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 65 23 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 66 1 However however RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 66 2 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 66 3 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 66 4 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 66 5 star star NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 66 6 network network NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 66 7 there there EX cord-102269-lfdvl78a 66 8 is be VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 66 9 less less JJR cord-102269-lfdvl78a 66 10 circulation circulation NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 66 11 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 66 12 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 66 13 initial initial JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 66 14 pathogen pathogen NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 66 15 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 66 16 so so RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 67 1 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 67 2 effect effect NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 67 3 163 163 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 67 4 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 67 5 cross cross JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 67 6 - - NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 67 7 immunity immunity NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 67 8 is be VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 67 9 less less RBR cord-102269-lfdvl78a 67 10 dramatic dramatic JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 67 11 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 68 1 Increased increase VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 68 2 cross cross NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 68 3 - - NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 68 4 immunity immunity NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 68 5 can can MD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 68 6 also also RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 68 7 increase increase VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 68 8 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 68 9 difference difference NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 68 10 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 68 11 risk risk NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 68 12 for for IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 68 13 164 164 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 68 14 different different JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 68 15 pandemic pandemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 68 16 definitions definition NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 68 17 - - , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 68 18 for for IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 68 19 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 68 20 fully fully RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 68 21 connected connect VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 68 22 network network NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 68 23 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 68 24 once once RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 68 25 cross cross NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 68 26 - - NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 68 27 immunity immunity NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 68 28 reaches reach VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 68 29 around around IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 68 30 α α NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 68 31 = = SYM cord-102269-lfdvl78a 68 32 0.6 0.6 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 68 33 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 68 34 165 165 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 68 35 differences difference NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 68 36 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 68 37 probability probability NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 68 38 between between IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 68 39 different different JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 68 40 thresholds threshold NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 68 41 become become VBP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 68 42 visible visible JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 68 43 that that WDT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 68 44 are be VBP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 68 45 much much RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 68 46 smaller small JJR cord-102269-lfdvl78a 68 47 at at IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 68 48 lower low JJR cord-102269-lfdvl78a 68 49 values value NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 68 50 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 69 1 This this DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 69 2 suggests suggest VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 69 3 that that IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 69 4 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 69 5 declaration declaration NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 69 6 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 69 7 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 69 8 pandemic pandemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 69 9 may may MD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 69 10 be be VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 69 11 more more RBR cord-102269-lfdvl78a 69 12 sensitive sensitive JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 69 13 to to IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 69 14 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 69 15 exact exact JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 69 16 pandemic pandemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 69 17 definition definition NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 69 18 for for IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 69 19 167 167 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 69 20 outbreaks outbreak NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 69 21 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 69 22 pathogens pathogen NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 69 23 that that WDT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 69 24 encounter encounter VBP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 69 25 pre pre JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 69 26 - - JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 69 27 existing existing JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 69 28 immunity immunity NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 69 29 than than IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 69 30 for for IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 69 31 pathogens pathogen NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 69 32 which which WDT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 69 33 encounter encounter VBP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 69 34 only only RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 69 35 fully fully RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 69 36 168 168 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 69 37 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 69 38 populations population NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 69 39 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 70 1 However however RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 70 2 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 70 3 this this DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 70 4 effect effect NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 70 5 is be VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 70 6 not not RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 70 7 seen see VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 70 8 for for IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 70 9 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 70 10 star star NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 70 11 network network NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 70 12 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 70 13 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 70 14 which which WDT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 70 15 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 70 16 low low JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 70 17 connectivity connectivity NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 70 18 169 169 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 70 19 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 70 20 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 70 21 network network NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 70 22 results result NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 70 23 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 70 24 larger large JJR cord-102269-lfdvl78a 70 25 differences difference NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 70 26 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 70 27 probability probability NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 70 28 between between IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 70 29 different different JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 70 30 thresholds threshold NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 70 31 even even RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 70 32 at at IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 70 33 low low JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 70 34 cross-170 cross-170 NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 70 35 immunity immunity NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 70 36 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 71 1 A a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 71 2 topic topic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 71 3 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 71 4 great great JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 71 5 concern concern NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 71 6 during during IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 71 7 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 71 8 pandemic pandemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 71 9 is be VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 71 10 heterogeneity heterogeneity NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 71 11 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 71 12 risk risk NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 71 13 between between IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 71 14 different different JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 71 15 countries country NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 71 16 or or CC cord-102269-lfdvl78a 71 17 regions region NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 71 18 173 173 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 71 19 [ [ -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 71 20 50 50 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 71 21 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 71 22 51 51 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 71 23 ] ] -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 71 24 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 72 1 Cross cross NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 72 2 - - NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 72 3 immunity immunity NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 72 4 can can MD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 72 5 create create VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 72 6 one one CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 72 7 kind kind NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 72 8 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 72 9 heterogeneity heterogeneity NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 72 10 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 72 11 since since IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 72 12 it -PRON- PRP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 72 13 is be VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 72 14 common common JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 72 15 for for IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 72 16 previous previous JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 72 17 exposure exposure NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 72 18 to to IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 72 19 174 174 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 72 20 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 72 21 pathogen pathogen NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 72 22 to to TO cord-102269-lfdvl78a 72 23 differ differ VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 72 24 between between IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 72 25 regions region NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 72 26 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 73 1 Another another DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 73 2 kind kind NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 73 3 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 73 4 heterogeneity heterogeneity NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 73 5 is be VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 73 6 that that DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 73 7 due due IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 73 8 to to IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 73 9 different different JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 73 10 public public JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 73 11 health health NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 73 12 is be VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 73 13 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 73 14 author author NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 73 15 / / SYM cord-102269-lfdvl78a 73 16 funder funder NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 73 17 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 73 18 who who WP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 73 19 has have VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 73 20 granted grant VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 73 21 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 73 22 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 73 23 license license NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 73 24 to to TO cord-102269-lfdvl78a 73 25 display display VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 73 26 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 73 27 preprint preprint NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 73 28 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 73 29 ( ( -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 73 30 which which WDT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 73 31 was be VBD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 73 32 not not RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 73 33 certified certify VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 73 34 by by IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 73 35 peer peer NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 73 36 review review NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 73 37 ) ) -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 73 38 preprint preprint NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 74 1 The the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 74 2 copyright copyright NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 74 3 holder holder NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 74 4 for for IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 74 5 this this DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 74 6 this this DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 74 7 version version NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 74 8 posted post VBD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 74 9 October October NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 74 10 5 5 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 74 11 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 74 12 2020 2020 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 74 13 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 74 14 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 75 1 The the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 75 2 second second JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 75 3 question question NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 75 4 was be VBD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 75 5 " " `` cord-102269-lfdvl78a 75 6 Does do VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 75 7 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 75 8 portion portion NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 75 9 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 75 10 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 75 11 population population NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 75 12 have have VBP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 75 13 pre pre VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 75 14 - - JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 75 15 existing existing JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 75 16 immunity immunity NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 75 17 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 75 18 and and CC cord-102269-lfdvl78a 75 19 does do VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 75 20 221 221 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 75 21 this this DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 75 22 affect affect NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 75 23 pandemic pandemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 75 24 risk risk NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 75 25 ? ? . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 75 26 " " '' cord-102269-lfdvl78a 76 1 The the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 76 2 presence presence NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 76 3 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 76 4 immunity immunity NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 76 5 can can MD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 76 6 significantly significantly RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 76 7 alter alter VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 76 8 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 76 9 results result NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 76 10 discussed discuss VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 76 11 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 76 12 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 76 13 222 222 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 76 14 paragraphs paragraph NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 76 15 above above RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 76 16 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 77 1 In in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 77 2 figure figure NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 77 3 5b 5b NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 77 4 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 77 5 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 77 6 leftmost leftmost JJS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 77 7 column column NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 77 8 is be VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 77 9 equivalent equivalent JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 77 10 to to IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 77 11 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 77 12 column column NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 77 13 from from IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 77 14 figure figure NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 77 15 2b 2b NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 77 16 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 77 17 which which WDT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 77 18 223 223 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 77 19 λ λ NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 77 20 = = SYM cord-102269-lfdvl78a 77 21 2.0 2.0 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 77 22 × × CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 77 23 10 10 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 77 24 −4 −4 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 77 25 per per IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 77 26 day day NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 77 27 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 78 1 However however RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 78 2 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 78 3 as as IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 78 4 cross cross NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 78 5 - - JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 78 6 immunity immunity JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 78 7 increases increase NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 78 8 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 78 9 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 78 10 marked marked JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 78 11 difference difference NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 78 12 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 78 13 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 78 14 pandemic pandemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 78 15 pro-224 pro-224 IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 78 16 bability bability NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 78 17 between between IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 78 18 different different JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 78 19 definitions definition NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 78 20 becomes become VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 78 21 visible visible JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 78 22 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 79 1 This this DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 79 2 shows show VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 79 3 that that IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 79 4 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 79 5 conclusion conclusion NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 79 6 that that IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 79 7 precise precise JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 79 8 pandem-225 pandem-225 JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 79 9 ic ic JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 79 10 definitions definition NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 79 11 are be VBP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 79 12 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 79 13 reduced reduce VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 79 14 importance importance NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 79 15 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 79 16 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 79 17 highly highly RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 79 18 connected connect VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 79 19 network network NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 79 20 with with IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 79 21 high high JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 79 22 travel travel NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 79 23 rates rate NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 79 24 is be VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 79 25 context context JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 79 26 226 226 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 79 27 sensitive sensitive JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 79 28 - - : cord-102269-lfdvl78a 79 29 if if IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 79 30 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 79 31 population population NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 79 32 has have VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 79 33 high high JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 79 34 immunity immunity NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 79 35 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 79 36 differences difference NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 79 37 between between IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 79 38 definitions definition NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 79 39 re re VBP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 79 40 - - NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 79 41 emerge emerge VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 79 42 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 80 1 The the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 80 2 third third JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 80 3 question question NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 80 4 was be VBD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 80 5 " " `` cord-102269-lfdvl78a 80 6 How how WRB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 80 7 is be VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 80 8 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 80 9 risk risk NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 80 10 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 80 11 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 80 12 pandemic pandemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 80 13 affected affect VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 80 14 by by IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 80 15 differences difference NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 80 16 between between IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 80 17 regions region NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 80 18 ? ? . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 80 19 " " '' cord-102269-lfdvl78a 81 1 In in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 81 2 figure figure NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 81 3 is be VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 81 4 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 81 5 author author NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 81 6 / / SYM cord-102269-lfdvl78a 81 7 funder funder NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 81 8 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 81 9 who who WP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 81 10 has have VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 81 11 granted grant VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 81 12 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 81 13 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 81 14 license license NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 81 15 to to TO cord-102269-lfdvl78a 81 16 display display VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 81 17 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 81 18 preprint preprint NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 81 19 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 81 20 ( ( -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 81 21 which which WDT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 81 22 was be VBD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 81 23 not not RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 81 24 certified certify VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 81 25 by by IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 81 26 peer peer NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 81 27 review review NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 81 28 ) ) -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 81 29 preprint preprint NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 82 1 The the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 82 2 copyright copyright NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 82 3 holder holder NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 82 4 for for IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 82 5 this this DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 82 6 this this DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 82 7 version version NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 82 8 posted post VBD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 82 9 October October NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 82 10 5 5 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 82 11 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 82 12 2020 2020 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 82 13 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 83 1 is be VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 83 2 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 83 3 author author NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 83 4 / / SYM cord-102269-lfdvl78a 83 5 funder funder NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 83 6 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 83 7 who who WP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 83 8 has have VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 83 9 granted grant VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 83 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 83 11 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 83 12 license license NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 83 13 to to TO cord-102269-lfdvl78a 83 14 display display VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 83 15 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 83 16 preprint preprint NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 83 17 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 83 18 ( ( -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 83 19 which which WDT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 83 20 was be VBD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 83 21 not not RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 83 22 certified certify VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 83 23 by by IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 83 24 peer peer NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 83 25 review review NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 83 26 ) ) -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 84 1 preprint preprint NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 85 1 The the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 85 2 copyright copyright NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 85 3 holder holder NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 85 4 for for IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 85 5 this this DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 85 6 this this DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 85 7 version version NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 85 8 posted post VBD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 85 9 October October NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 85 10 5 5 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 85 11 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 85 12 2020 2020 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 85 13 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 85 14 _SP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 86 1 To to TO cord-102269-lfdvl78a 86 2 determine determine VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 86 3 how how WRB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 86 4 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 86 5 final final JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 86 6 probabilities probability NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 86 7 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 86 8 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 86 9 depend depend VBP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 86 10 on on IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 86 11 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 86 12 pairwise pairwise JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 86 13 probabilities probability NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 86 14 qjm qjm NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 86 15 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 86 16 we -PRON- PRP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 86 17 use use VBP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 86 18 307 307 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 86 19 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 86 20 Markov Markov NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 86 21 chain chain NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 86 22 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 87 1 The the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 87 2 states state NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 87 3 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 87 4 this this DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 87 5 Markov Markov NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 87 6 chain chain NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 87 7 assign assign VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 87 8 one one CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 87 9 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 87 10 three three CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 87 11 states state NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 87 12 to to IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 87 13 each each DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 87 14 region region NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 87 15 - - HYPH cord-102269-lfdvl78a 87 16 N n NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 87 17 ( ( -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 87 18 for for IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 87 19 neutral neutral JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 87 20 ) ) -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 87 21 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 87 22 308 308 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 87 23 where where WRB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 87 24 it -PRON- PRP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 87 25 is be VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 87 26 not not RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 87 27 yet yet RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 87 28 determined determine VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 87 29 whether whether IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 87 30 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 87 31 region region NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 87 32 will will MD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 87 33 experience experience VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 87 34 an an DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 87 35 epidemic epidemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 87 36 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 87 37 E e NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 87 38 ( ( -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 87 39 for for IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 87 40 epidemic epidemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 87 41 ) ) -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 87 42 , , . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 88 1 where where WRB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 88 2 309 309 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 88 3 it -PRON- PRP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 88 4 is be VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 88 5 determined determine VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 88 6 that that IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 88 7 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 88 8 region region NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 88 9 will will MD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 88 10 experience experience VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 88 11 an an DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 88 12 epidemic epidemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 89 1 but but CC cord-102269-lfdvl78a 89 2 it -PRON- PRP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 89 3 is be VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 89 4 not not RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 89 5 yet yet RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 89 6 determined determine VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 89 7 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 89 8 which which WDT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 89 9 further further JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 89 10 310 310 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 89 11 regions region NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 89 12 it -PRON- PRP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 89 13 will will MD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 89 14 cause cause VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 89 15 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 89 16 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 89 17 and and CC cord-102269-lfdvl78a 89 18 T T NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 89 19 ( ( -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 89 20 for for IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 89 21 terminal terminal NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 89 22 ) ) -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 89 23 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 89 24 where where WRB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 89 25 it -PRON- PRP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 89 26 is be VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 89 27 determined determine VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 89 28 that that IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 89 29 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 89 30 region region NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 89 31 will will MD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 89 32 experience experience VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 89 33 311 311 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 89 34 an an DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 89 35 epidemic epidemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 89 36 and and CC cord-102269-lfdvl78a 89 37 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 89 38 which which WDT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 89 39 further further JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 89 40 regions region NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 89 41 it -PRON- PRP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 89 42 will will MD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 89 43 cause cause VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 89 44 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 89 45 due due JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 89 46 to to IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 89 47 onward onward JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 89 48 transmission transmission NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 89 49 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 90 1 As as IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 90 2 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 90 3 model model NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 90 4 The the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 90 5 initial initial JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 90 6 probability probability NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 90 7 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 90 8 each each DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 90 9 global global JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 90 10 state state NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 90 11 z1z2 z1z2 NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 90 12 ... ... : cord-102269-lfdvl78a 90 13 zn zn NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 90 14 ( ( -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 90 15 where where WRB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 90 16 zi zi NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 90 17 ∈ ∈ NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 90 18 { { -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 90 19 N N NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 90 20 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 90 21 E E NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 90 22 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 90 23 T T NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 90 24 } } -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 90 25 ) ) -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 90 26 is be VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 90 27 given give VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 90 28 by by IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 90 29 : : : cord-102269-lfdvl78a 90 30 where where WRB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 90 31 Qj Qj NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 90 32 = = SYM cord-102269-lfdvl78a 90 33 min((1 min((1 NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 90 34 / / SYM cord-102269-lfdvl78a 90 35 R0,j R0,j NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 90 36 ) ) -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 91 1 I -PRON- PRP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 91 2 j j NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 91 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 91 4 0 0 NFP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 91 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 91 6 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 91 7 1 1 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 91 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 91 9 is be VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 91 10 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 91 11 probability probability NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 91 12 that that IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 91 13 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 91 14 initial initial JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 91 15 population population NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 91 16 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 91 17 infective infective JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 91 18 individuals individual NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 91 19 does do VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 91 20 is be VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 91 21 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 91 22 author author NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 91 23 / / SYM cord-102269-lfdvl78a 91 24 funder funder NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 91 25 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 91 26 who who WP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 91 27 has have VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 91 28 granted grant VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 91 29 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 91 30 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 91 31 license license NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 91 32 to to TO cord-102269-lfdvl78a 91 33 display display VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 91 34 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 91 35 preprint preprint NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 91 36 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 91 37 ( ( -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 91 38 which which WDT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 91 39 was be VBD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 91 40 not not RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 91 41 certified certify VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 91 42 by by IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 91 43 peer peer NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 91 44 review review NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 91 45 ) ) -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 91 46 preprint preprint NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 92 1 The the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 92 2 copyright copyright NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 92 3 holder holder NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 92 4 for for IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 92 5 this this DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 92 6 this this DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 92 7 version version NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 92 8 posted post VBD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 92 9 October October NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 92 10 5 5 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 92 11 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 92 12 2020 2020 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 92 13 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 92 14 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 93 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.10.02.20205682 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.10.02.20205682 NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 93 2 doi doi NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 93 3 : : : cord-102269-lfdvl78a 94 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 94 2 preprint preprint NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 94 3 initial initial JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 94 4 global global JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 94 5 state state NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 94 6 is be VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 94 7 given give VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 94 8 by by IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 94 9 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 94 10 product product NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 94 11 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 94 12 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 94 13 probabilities probability NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 94 14 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 94 15 each each DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 94 16 region region NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 94 17 being be VBG cord-102269-lfdvl78a 94 18 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 94 19 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 94 20 corresponding corresponding JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 94 21 334 334 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 94 22 initial initial JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 94 23 regional regional JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 94 24 state state NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 94 25 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 95 1 In in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 95 2 this this DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 95 3 system system NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 95 4 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 95 5 all all DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 95 6 states state NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 95 7 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 95 8 which which WDT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 95 9 no no DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 95 10 region region NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 95 11 is be VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 95 12 epidemic epidemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 95 13 are be VBP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 95 14 absorbing absorb VBG cord-102269-lfdvl78a 95 15 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 95 16 and and CC cord-102269-lfdvl78a 95 17 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 95 18 each each DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 95 19 transition transition NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 95 20 at at IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 95 21 least least JJS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 95 22 336 336 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 95 23 one one CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 95 24 epidemic epidemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 95 25 state state NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 95 26 must must MD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 95 27 become become VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 95 28 terminal terminal JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 95 29 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 96 1 This this DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 96 2 means mean VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 96 3 that that IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 96 4 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 96 5 system system NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 96 6 must must MD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 96 7 reach reach VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 96 8 an an DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 96 9 absorbing absorb VBG cord-102269-lfdvl78a 96 10 state state NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 96 11 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 96 12 at at IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 96 13 337 337 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 96 14 most most JJS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 96 15 n n CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 96 16 transitions transition NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 96 17 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 96 18 since since IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 96 19 at at RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 96 20 least least RBS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 96 21 one one CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 96 22 region region NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 96 23 becomes become VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 96 24 terminal terminal NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 96 25 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 96 26 each each DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 96 27 transition transition NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 96 28 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 96 29 and and CC cord-102269-lfdvl78a 96 30 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 96 31 fully fully RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 96 32 terminal terminal JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 96 33 state state NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 96 34 338 338 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 96 35 is be VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 96 36 absorbing absorb VBG cord-102269-lfdvl78a 96 37 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 97 1 So so RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 97 2 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 97 3 final final JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 97 4 probability probability NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 97 5 vector vector NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 97 6 p p NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 97 7 final final NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 97 8 is be VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 97 9 given give VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 97 10 by by RP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 97 11 with with IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 97 12 T T NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 97 13 as as IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 97 14 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 97 15 transition transition NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 97 16 matrix matrix NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 97 17 and and CC cord-102269-lfdvl78a 97 18 p p NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 97 19 initial initial NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 97 20 as as IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 97 21 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 97 22 vector vector NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 97 23 whose whose WP$ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 97 24 elements element NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 97 25 defined define VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 97 26 by by IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 97 27 equation equation NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 97 28 ( ( -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 97 29 5 5 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 97 30 ) ) -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 98 1 The the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 98 2 model model NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 98 3 described describe VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 98 4 above above RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 98 5 can can MD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 98 6 incorporate incorporate VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 98 7 certain certain JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 98 8 epidemiological epidemiological JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 98 9 details detail NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 98 10 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 98 11 such such JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 98 12 as as IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 98 13 heterogeneity heterogeneity NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 98 14 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 98 15 popu-344 popu-344 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 98 16 lation lation NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 98 17 parameters parameter NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 98 18 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 98 19 but but CC cord-102269-lfdvl78a 98 20 is be VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 98 21 restricted restrict VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 98 22 to to IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 98 23 treating treat VBG cord-102269-lfdvl78a 98 24 quite quite RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 98 25 simple simple JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 98 26 disease disease NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 98 27 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 98 28 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 99 1 In in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 99 2 this this DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 99 3 section section NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 99 4 we -PRON- PRP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 99 5 expand expand VBP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 99 6 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 99 7 345 345 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 99 8 model model NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 99 9 to to TO cord-102269-lfdvl78a 99 10 treat treat VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 99 11 pathogens pathogen NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 99 12 that that WDT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 99 13 give give VBP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 99 14 those those DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 99 15 who who WP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 99 16 overcome overcome VBP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 99 17 infection infection NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 99 18 cross cross NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 99 19 - - NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 99 20 protection protection NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 99 21 against against IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 99 22 future future JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 99 23 strains strain NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 99 24 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 99 25 346 346 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 99 26 that that DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 99 27 pathogen pathogen NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 99 28 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 100 1 This this DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 100 2 is be VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 100 3 necessary necessary JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 100 4 to to TO cord-102269-lfdvl78a 100 5 be be VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 100 6 able able JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 100 7 to to TO cord-102269-lfdvl78a 100 8 investigate investigate VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 100 9 how how WRB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 100 10 pre pre JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 100 11 - - JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 100 12 existing existing JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 100 13 immunity immunity NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 100 14 changes change VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 100 15 how how WRB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 100 16 pandemic pandemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 100 17 347 347 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 100 18 definitions definition NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 100 19 affect affect VBP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 100 20 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 100 21 results result NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 100 22 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 100 23 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 100 24 model model NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 100 25 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 101 1 348 348 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 102 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 102 2 first first RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 102 3 describe describe VBP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 102 4 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 102 5 spread spread NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 102 6 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 102 7 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 102 8 pathogen pathogen NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 102 9 strain strain NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 102 10 X x NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 102 11 using use VBG cord-102269-lfdvl78a 102 12 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 102 13 methods method NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 102 14 above above RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 102 15 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 102 16 introducing introduce VBG cord-102269-lfdvl78a 102 17 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 102 18 superscript superscript NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 102 19 349 349 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 102 20 X x NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 102 21 to to IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 102 22 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 102 23 relevant relevant JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 102 24 parameters parameter NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 102 25 to to TO cord-102269-lfdvl78a 102 26 mark mark VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 102 27 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 102 28 strain strain NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 102 29 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 102 30 e.g. e.g. RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 102 31 R r NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 102 32 X x NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 102 33 0 0 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 102 34 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 102 35 R r NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 102 36 X x NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 102 37 ( ( -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 102 38 ∞ ∞ NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 102 39 ) ) -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 102 40 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 102 41 and and CC cord-102269-lfdvl78a 102 42 p p NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 102 43 X x NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 102 44 final final JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 102 45 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 103 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 103 2 assume assume VBP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 103 3 that that IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 103 4 infection infection NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 103 5 350 350 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 103 6 with with IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 103 7 pathogen pathogen NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 103 8 X x NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 103 9 confers confer VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 103 10 cross cross JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 103 11 - - JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 103 12 immunity immunity NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 103 13 α α NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 103 14 to to IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 103 15 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 103 16 second second JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 103 17 strain strain NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 103 18 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 103 19 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 103 20 pathogen pathogen NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 103 21 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 103 22 which which WDT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 103 23 we -PRON- PRP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 103 24 call call VBP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 103 25 Y Y NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 103 26 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 104 1 In in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 104 2 each each DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 104 3 351 351 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 104 4 population population NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 104 5 Pj Pj NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 104 6 we -PRON- PRP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 104 7 can can MD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 104 8 define define VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 104 9 an an DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 104 10 effective effective JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 104 11 basic basic JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 104 12 reproductive reproductive JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 104 13 number number NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 104 14 for for IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 104 15 Y Y NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 104 16 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 104 17 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 104 18 case case NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 104 19 that that WDT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 104 20 Pj Pj NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 104 21 has have VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 104 22 experienced experience VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 104 23 352 352 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 104 24 an an DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 104 25 epidemic epidemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 104 26 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 104 27 X x NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 104 28 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 104 29 which which WDT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 104 30 we -PRON- PRP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 104 31 call call VBP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 104 32 R R NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 104 33 Y Y NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 104 34 e e NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 104 35 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 104 36 j j NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 104 37 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 105 1 This this DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 105 2 expression expression NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 105 3 simply simply RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 105 4 multiplies multiply VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 105 5 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 105 6 basic basic JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 105 7 reproductive reproductive JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 105 8 number number NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 105 9 by by IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 105 10 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 105 11 effective effective JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 105 12 number number NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 105 13 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 105 14 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 105 15 354 354 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 105 16 individuals individual NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 105 17 given give VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 105 18 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 105 19 prevalence prevalence NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 105 20 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 105 21 cross cross NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 105 22 - - NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 105 23 immunity immunity NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 105 24 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 105 25 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 105 26 population population NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 105 27 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 106 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 106 2 is be VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 106 3 through through IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 106 4 this this DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 106 5 expression expression NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 106 6 that that IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 106 7 355 355 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 106 8 cross cross NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 106 9 - - NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 106 10 immunity immunity NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 106 11 enters enter VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 106 12 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 106 13 model model NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 106 14 - - : cord-102269-lfdvl78a 106 15 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 106 16 parameter parameter NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 106 17 α α NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 106 18 does do VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 106 19 not not RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 106 20 otherwise otherwise RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 106 21 appear appear VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 106 22 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 106 23 what what WP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 106 24 follows follow VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 106 25 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 107 1 356 356 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 108 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 108 2 can can MD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 108 3 write write VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 108 4 down down RP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 108 5 an an DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 108 6 equation equation NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 108 7 for for IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 108 8 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 108 9 expected expect VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 108 10 total total JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 108 11 number number NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 108 12 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 108 13 individuals individual NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 108 14 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 108 15 Pj Pj NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 108 16 infected infect VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 108 17 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 108 18 an an DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 108 19 epidemic epidemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 108 20 357 357 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 108 21 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 108 22 Y Y NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 108 23 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 108 24 analogy analogy NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 108 25 to to IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 108 26 equation equation NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 108 27 ( ( -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 108 28 1 1 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 108 29 ) ) -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 108 30 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 109 1 In in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 109 2 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 109 3 case case NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 109 4 where where WRB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 109 5 there there EX cord-102269-lfdvl78a 109 6 has have VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 109 7 been be VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 109 8 no no DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 109 9 previous previous JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 109 10 epidemic epidemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 109 11 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 109 12 X x NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 109 13 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 109 14 Pj Pj NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 109 15 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 109 16 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 109 17 358 358 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 109 18 expected expect VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 109 19 epidemic epidemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 109 20 size size NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 109 21 is be VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 109 22 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 109 23 solution solution NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 109 24 R R NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 109 25 Y Y NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 109 26 j j NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 109 27 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 109 28 noX noX NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 109 29 ( ( -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 109 30 ∞ ∞ NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 109 31 ) ) -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 109 32 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 110 1 In in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 110 2 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 110 3 case case NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 110 4 where where WRB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 110 5 there there EX cord-102269-lfdvl78a 110 6 has have VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 110 7 been be VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 110 8 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 110 9 previous previous JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 110 10 epidemic epidemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 110 11 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 110 12 X x NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 110 13 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 110 14 Pj Pj NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 110 15 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 110 16 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 110 17 expected expect VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 110 18 epidemic epidemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 110 19 size size NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 110 20 is be VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 110 21 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 110 22 solution solution NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 110 23 We -PRON- PRP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 110 24 assume assume VBP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 110 25 that that IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 110 26 individuals individual NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 110 27 infected infect VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 110 28 with with IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 110 29 Y Y NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 110 30 travel travel NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 110 31 at at IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 110 32 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 110 33 same same JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 110 34 rate rate NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 110 35 as as IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 110 36 individuals individual NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 110 37 infected infect VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 110 38 with with IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 110 39 X. X. NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 111 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 111 2 362 362 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 111 3 then then RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 111 4 define define VBP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 111 5 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 111 6 pairwise pairwise JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 111 7 probabilities probability NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 111 8 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 111 9 transmission transmission NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 111 10 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 111 11 Y y NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 111 12 between between IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 111 13 populations population NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 111 14 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 111 15 analogy analogy NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 111 16 to to IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 111 17 equation equation NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 111 18 ( ( -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 111 19 2 2 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 111 20 ) ) -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 111 21 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 112 1 That that DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 112 2 is is RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 112 3 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 112 4 is be VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 112 5 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 112 6 author author NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 112 7 / / SYM cord-102269-lfdvl78a 112 8 funder funder NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 112 9 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 112 10 who who WP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 112 11 has have VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 112 12 granted grant VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 112 13 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 112 14 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 112 15 license license NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 112 16 to to TO cord-102269-lfdvl78a 112 17 display display VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 112 18 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 112 19 preprint preprint NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 112 20 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 112 21 ( ( -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 112 22 which which WDT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 112 23 was be VBD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 112 24 not not RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 112 25 certified certify VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 112 26 by by IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 112 27 peer peer NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 112 28 review review NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 112 29 ) ) -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 113 1 preprint preprint NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 114 1 The the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 114 2 copyright copyright NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 114 3 holder holder NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 114 4 for for IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 114 5 this this DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 114 6 this this DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 114 7 version version NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 114 8 posted post VBD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 114 9 October October NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 114 10 5 5 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 114 11 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 114 12 2020 2020 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 114 13 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 114 14 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 115 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.10.02.20205682 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.10.02.20205682 NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 115 2 doi doi NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 115 3 : : : cord-102269-lfdvl78a 116 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 116 2 preprint preprint NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 116 3 where where WRB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 116 4 R R NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 116 5 Y Y NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 116 6 c c NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 116 7 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 116 8 m m NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 116 9 = = SYM cord-102269-lfdvl78a 116 10 R r NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 116 11 Y Y NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 116 12 0,m 0,m CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 117 1 when when WRB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 117 2 Pm Pm NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 117 3 has have VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 117 4 not not RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 117 5 experienced experience VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 117 6 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 117 7 previous previous JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 117 8 epidemic epidemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 117 9 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 117 10 X x NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 117 11 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 117 12 R R NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 117 13 Y Y NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 117 14 c c NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 117 15 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 117 16 m m NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 117 17 = = SYM cord-102269-lfdvl78a 117 18 R r NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 117 19 Y Y NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 117 20 e e NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 117 21 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 117 22 m m NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 117 23 when when WRB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 117 24 Pm Pm NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 117 25 has have VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 117 26 365 365 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 117 27 experienced experience VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 117 28 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 117 29 previous previous JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 117 30 epidemic epidemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 117 31 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 117 32 X x NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 117 33 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 117 34 R R NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 117 35 Y Y NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 117 36 b b NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 117 37 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 117 38 j j NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 117 39 ( ( -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 117 40 ∞ ∞ NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 117 41 ) ) -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 117 42 = = NFP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 118 1 R R NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 118 2 Y Y NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 118 3 noX noX NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 118 4 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 118 5 j j NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 118 6 ( ( -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 118 7 ∞ ∞ NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 118 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 119 1 when when WRB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 119 2 Pj Pj NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 119 3 has have VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 119 4 not not RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 119 5 experienced experience VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 119 6 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 119 7 previous previous JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 119 8 366 366 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 119 9 epidemic epidemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 119 10 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 119 11 X x NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 119 12 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 119 13 and and CC cord-102269-lfdvl78a 119 14 R R NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 119 15 Y Y NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 119 16 b b NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 119 17 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 119 18 j j NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 119 19 ( ( -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 119 20 ∞ ∞ NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 119 21 ) ) -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 120 1 = = NFP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 121 1 R R NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 121 2 Y Y NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 121 3 X X NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 121 4 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 121 5 j j NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 121 6 ( ( -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 121 7 ∞ ∞ NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 121 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 122 1 when when WRB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 122 2 Pj Pj NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 122 3 has have VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 122 4 experienced experience VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 122 5 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 122 6 previous previous JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 122 7 epidemic epidemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 122 8 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 122 9 X. x. NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 123 1 These these DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 123 2 expressions expression NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 123 3 for for IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 123 4 q q NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 123 5 Y Y NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 123 6 jm jm NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 123 7 can can MD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 123 8 be be VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 123 9 substituted substitute VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 123 10 for for IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 123 11 qjm qjm NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 123 12 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 123 13 equation equation NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 123 14 ( ( -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 123 15 3 3 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 123 16 ) ) -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 123 17 to to TO cord-102269-lfdvl78a 123 18 yield yield VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 123 19 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 123 20 transition transition NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 123 21 matrix matrix NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 123 22 for for IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 123 23 368 368 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 123 24 modelling model VBG cord-102269-lfdvl78a 123 25 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 123 26 spread spread NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 123 27 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 123 28 Y Y NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 123 29 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 123 30 which which WDT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 123 31 we -PRON- PRP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 123 32 will will MD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 123 33 call call VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 123 34 T T NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 123 35 Y Y NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 123 36 ( ( -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 123 37 s1s2 s1s2 JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 123 38 ... ... : cord-102269-lfdvl78a 123 39 sn sn NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 123 40 ) ) -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 123 41 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 123 42 where where WRB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 123 43 sj sj NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 123 44 is be VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 123 45 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 123 46 final final JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 123 47 state state NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 123 48 ( ( -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 123 49 either either CC cord-102269-lfdvl78a 123 50 N N NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 123 51 or or CC cord-102269-lfdvl78a 123 52 T T NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 123 53 ) ) -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 123 54 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 123 55 369 369 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 123 56 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 123 57 X x NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 123 58 outbreak outbreak NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 123 59 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 123 60 Pj Pj NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 123 61 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 124 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 124 2 find find VBP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 124 3 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 124 4 initial initial JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 124 5 probabilities probability NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 124 6 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 124 7 each each DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 124 8 state state NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 124 9 with with IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 124 10 regards regard NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 124 11 to to IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 124 12 Y Y NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 124 13 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 124 14 p p NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 124 15 Y Y NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 124 16 initial initial NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 124 17 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 124 18 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 124 19 analogy analogy NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 124 20 370 370 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 124 21 to to IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 124 22 equation equation NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 124 23 ( ( -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 124 24 5 5 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 124 25 ) ) -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 124 26 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 124 27 given give VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 124 28 an an DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 124 29 initial initial JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 124 30 number number NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 124 31 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 124 32 individuals individual NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 124 33 infected infect VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 124 34 with with IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 124 35 Y Y NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 124 36 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 124 37 each each DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 124 38 population population NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 125 1 I -PRON- PRP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 125 2 Y Y NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 125 3 j j NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 125 4 ( ( -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 125 5 ∞ ∞ NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 125 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 125 7 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 125 8 _SP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 1 To to TO cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 2 find find VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 3 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 4 overall overall JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 5 probability probability NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 6 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 7 each each DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 8 combination combination NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 9 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 10 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 11 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 12 Y Y NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 13 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 14 various various JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 15 populations population NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 16 given give VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 17 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 18 prior prior JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 19 376 376 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 20 probability probability NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 21 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 22 each each DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 23 combination combination NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 24 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 25 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 26 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 27 X x NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 28 ( ( -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 29 given give VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 30 by by IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 31 p p NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 32 X x NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 33 final final JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 34 ( ( -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 35 s1s2 s1s2 NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 36 ... ... : cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 37 sn sn NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 38 ) ) -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 39 defined define VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 40 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 41 equation equation NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 42 ( ( -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 43 6 6 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 44 ) ) -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 45 is be VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 46 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 47 author author NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 48 / / SYM cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 49 funder funder NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 50 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 51 who who WP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 52 has have VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 53 granted grant VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 54 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 55 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 56 license license NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 57 to to TO cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 58 display display VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 59 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 60 preprint preprint NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 61 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 62 ( ( -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 63 which which WDT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 64 was be VBD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 65 not not RB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 66 certified certify VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 67 by by IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 68 peer peer NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 69 review review NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 70 ) ) -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 126 71 preprint preprint NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 127 1 The the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 127 2 copyright copyright NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 127 3 holder holder NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 127 4 for for IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 127 5 this this DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 127 6 this this DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 127 7 version version NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 127 8 posted post VBD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 127 9 October October NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 127 10 5 5 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 127 11 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 127 12 2020 2020 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 127 13 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 127 14 . . . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 128 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.10.02.20205682 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.10.02.20205682 NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 128 2 doi doi NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 128 3 : : : cord-102269-lfdvl78a 129 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 129 2 preprint preprint NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 129 3 Characteristics characteristic NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 129 4 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 129 5 Microbes Microbes NNPS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 130 1 Most Most JJS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 130 2 391 391 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 130 3 Likely likely JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 130 4 to to TO cord-102269-lfdvl78a 130 5 Cause cause VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 130 6 Pandemics Pandemics NNPS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 130 7 and and CC cord-102269-lfdvl78a 130 8 Global Global NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 130 9 Catastrophes Catastrophes NNPS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 130 10 Novel Novel NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 130 11 Coronavirus Coronavirus NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 130 12 Outbreak outbreak NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 130 13 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 130 14 Wuhan Wuhan NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 130 15 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 130 16 China China NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 130 17 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 130 18 2020 2020 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 130 19 : : : cord-102269-lfdvl78a 131 1 Intense intense JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 131 2 Surveillance surveillance NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 131 3 Is be VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 131 4 Vital vital JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 131 5 394 394 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 131 6 for for IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 131 7 Preventing prevent VBG cord-102269-lfdvl78a 131 8 Sustained Sustained NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 131 9 Transmission Transmission NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 131 10 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 131 11 New New NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 131 12 Locations Locations NNPS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 131 13 Effects effect NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 131 14 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 131 15 population population NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 131 16 density density NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 131 17 on on IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 131 18 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 131 19 spread spread NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 131 20 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 131 21 disease disease NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 131 22 Spread Spread VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 131 23 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 131 24 infectious infectious JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 131 25 disease disease NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 131 26 through through IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 131 27 clustered cluster VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 131 28 populations population NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 132 1 How how WRB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 132 2 big big JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 132 3 is be VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 132 4 an an DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 132 5 outbreak outbreak NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 132 6 likely likely JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 132 7 to to TO cord-102269-lfdvl78a 132 8 be be VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 132 9 ? ? . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 133 1 Methods method NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 133 2 for for IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 133 3 epidemic epidemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 133 4 final-401 final-401 NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 133 5 size size NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 133 6 calculation calculation NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 133 7 Threshold Threshold NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 133 8 behaviour behaviour NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 133 9 and and CC cord-102269-lfdvl78a 133 10 final final JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 133 11 outcome outcome NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 133 12 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 133 13 an an DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 133 14 epidemic epidemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 133 15 on on IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 133 16 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 133 17 random random JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 133 18 405 405 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 133 19 network network NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 133 20 with with IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 133 21 household household NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 133 22 structure structure NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 134 1 Will Will MD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 134 2 an an DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 134 3 outbreak outbreak NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 134 4 exceed exceed VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 134 5 available available JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 134 6 resources resource NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 134 7 for for IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 134 8 408 408 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 134 9 control control NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 134 10 ? ? . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 1 Estimating estimate VBG cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 2 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 3 risk risk NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 4 from from IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 5 invading invade VBG cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 6 pathogens pathogen NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 7 using use VBG cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 8 practical practical JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 9 definitions definition NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 10 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 11 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 12 severe severe JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 13 epidemic epidemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 14 Community community NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 15 - - HYPH cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 16 based base VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 17 pandemic pandemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 18 preparedness preparedness NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 19 : : : cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 20 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 21 procedures procedure NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 22 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 23 411 411 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 24 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 25 Manitoba Manitoba NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 26 First First NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 27 Nation Nation NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 28 community community NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 29 Modeling model VBG cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 30 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 31 worldwide worldwide JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 32 426 426 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 33 spread spread NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 34 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 35 pandemic pandemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 36 influenza influenza NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 37 : : : cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 38 Baseline baseline JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 39 case case NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 40 and and CC cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 41 containment containment NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 42 interventions intervention NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 43 Increased increase VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 44 frequency frequency NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 45 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 46 travel travel NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 47 429 429 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 48 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 49 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 50 presence presence NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 51 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 52 cross cross NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 53 - - NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 54 immunity immunity NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 55 may may MD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 56 act act VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 57 to to TO cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 58 decrease decrease VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 59 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 60 chance chance NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 61 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 62 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 63 global global JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 64 pandemic pandemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 65 Pandemic Pandemic NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 66 potential potential NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 67 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 135 68 2019-nCoV. 2019-ncov. CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 136 1 The the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 136 2 Lancet Lancet NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 136 3 Infectious Infectious NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 136 4 Diseases disease NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 137 1 Interhuman interhuman JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 137 2 transmissibility transmissibility NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 137 3 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 137 4 Middle Middle NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 137 5 East East NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 137 6 respiratory respiratory JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 137 7 syndrome syndrome NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 137 8 435 435 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 137 9 coronavirus coronavirus NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 137 10 : : : cord-102269-lfdvl78a 137 11 Estimation estimation NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 137 12 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 137 13 pandemic pandemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 137 14 risk risk NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 137 15 World World NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 137 16 Health Health NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 137 17 Organization Organization NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 137 18 AIDS AIDS NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 137 19 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 137 20 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 137 21 last last JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 137 22 10 10 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 137 23 years year NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 137 24 The the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 137 25 spread spread NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 137 26 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 137 27 treatment treatment NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 137 28 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 137 29 and and CC cord-102269-lfdvl78a 137 30 prevention prevention NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 137 31 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 137 32 HIV-1 HIV-1 NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 137 33 : : : cord-102269-lfdvl78a 137 34 evolution evolution NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 137 35 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 137 36 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 137 37 global global JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 137 38 pandemic pandemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 137 39 What what WP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 137 40 Is be VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 137 41 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 137 42 Pandemic pandemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 137 43 ? ? . cord-102269-lfdvl78a 138 1 Coronavirus Coronavirus NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 138 2 Disease Disease NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 138 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 138 4 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 138 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 138 6 Press Press NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 138 7 Conference Conference NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 138 8 Forecast Forecast NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 138 9 and and CC cord-102269-lfdvl78a 138 10 control control NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 138 11 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 138 12 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 138 13 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 138 14 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 138 15 globalized globalized JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 138 16 world world NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 138 17 resurgent resurgent JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 138 18 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 138 19 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 138 20 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 138 21 497 497 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 138 22 hierarchical hierarchical JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 138 23 metapopulation metapopulation NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 138 24 model model NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 1 The the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 2 role role NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 3 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 4 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 5 airline airline NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 6 transportation transportation NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 7 network network NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 8 500 500 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 9 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 10 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 11 prediction prediction NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 12 and and CC cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 13 predictability predictability NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 14 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 15 global global JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 16 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 17 Seven seven CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 18 challenges challenge NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 19 for for IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 20 metapopulation metapopulation NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 21 models model NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 22 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 23 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 24 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 25 including include VBG cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 26 households household NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 27 503 503 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 28 models model NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 29 Forecasting forecast VBG cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 30 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 31 spatial spatial JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 32 transmission transmission NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 33 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 34 influenza influenza NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 35 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 36 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 37 506 506 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 38 United United NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 39 States States NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 40 Empirical empirical JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 41 evidence evidence NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 42 for for IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 43 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 44 effect effect NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 45 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 46 airline airline NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 47 travel travel NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 48 509 509 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 49 on on IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 50 inter inter JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 51 - - JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 52 regional regional JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 53 influenza influenza NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 54 spread spread VBD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 55 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 56 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 57 United United NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 58 States States NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 59 Effectiveness Effectiveness NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 60 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 61 travel travel NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 62 512 512 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 63 restrictions restriction NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 64 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 65 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 66 rapid rapid JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 67 containment containment NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 68 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 69 human human JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 70 influenza influenza NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 71 : : : cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 72 a a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 73 systematic systematic JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 74 review review NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 75 Health Health NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 76 Organization Organization NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 77 Dynamics Dynamics NNPS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 78 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 79 annual annual JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 80 influenza influenza NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 81 A a DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 82 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 83 with with IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 84 immuno immuno JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 85 - - JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 86 selection selection JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 87 Response response NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 88 to to IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 89 Ebola Ebola NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 90 in in IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 91 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 92 US US NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 93 : : : cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 94 Misinformation misinformation NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 95 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 96 fear fear NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 97 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 98 and and CC cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 99 new new JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 100 opportunities opportunity NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 101 Assessing assess VBG cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 102 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 103 International International NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 104 Spreading Spreading NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 105 Risk Risk NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 106 Associated Associated NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 107 with with IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 108 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 109 Asymptomatic asymptomatic JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 110 transmission transmission NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 111 , , , cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 112 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 113 achilles achilles NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 114 ' ' POS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 115 heel heel NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 116 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 117 current current JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 118 536 536 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 119 strategies strategy NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 120 to to TO cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 121 control control VB cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 122 Covid-19 Covid-19 NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 123 Severe severe JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 124 acute acute JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 125 respiratory respiratory JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 126 539 539 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 127 syndrome syndrome NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 128 coronavirus coronavirus NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 139 129 2 2 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 140 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 140 2 SARS SARS NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 140 3 - - HYPH cord-102269-lfdvl78a 140 4 CoV-2 CoV-2 NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 140 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 140 6 and and CC cord-102269-lfdvl78a 140 7 coronavirus coronavirus NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 140 8 disease-2019 disease-2019 NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 140 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 140 10 COVID-19 covid-19 NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 140 11 ) ) -RRB- cord-102269-lfdvl78a 140 12 : : : cord-102269-lfdvl78a 140 13 The the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 140 14 epidemic epidemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 140 15 540 540 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 140 16 and and CC cord-102269-lfdvl78a 140 17 the the DT cord-102269-lfdvl78a 140 18 challenges challenge NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 140 19 Infectious infectious JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 140 20 disease disease NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 140 21 surveillance surveillance NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 140 22 and and CC cord-102269-lfdvl78a 140 23 modelling modelling NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 140 24 across across IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 140 25 geographic geographic JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 140 26 frontiers frontier NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 140 27 and and CC cord-102269-lfdvl78a 140 28 scientific scientific JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 140 29 543 543 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 140 30 specialties specialty NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 140 31 Human human JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 140 32 mobility mobility NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 140 33 and and CC cord-102269-lfdvl78a 140 34 time time NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 140 35 spent spend VBN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 140 36 at at IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 140 37 destination destination NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 140 38 : : : cord-102269-lfdvl78a 140 39 Impact impact NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 140 40 on on IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 140 41 546 546 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 140 42 spatial spatial JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 140 43 epidemic epidemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 140 44 spreading spread VBG cord-102269-lfdvl78a 140 45 Transmission transmission NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 140 46 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-102269-lfdvl78a 140 47 and and CC cord-102269-lfdvl78a 140 48 final final JJ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 140 49 epidemic epidemic NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 140 50 size size NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 140 51 of of IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 140 52 ebola ebola NNP cord-102269-lfdvl78a 140 53 virus virus NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 140 54 disease disease NN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 140 55 outbreaks outbreak VBZ cord-102269-lfdvl78a 140 56 549 549 CD cord-102269-lfdvl78a 140 57 with with IN cord-102269-lfdvl78a 140 58 varying vary VBG cord-102269-lfdvl78a 140 59 interventions intervention NNS