id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-013275-n7sf5ude	Drake, Tom	Buy now, saved later? The critical impact of time-to-pandemic uncertainty on pandemic cost-effectiveness analyses	2013-12-24		.txt	text/plain	5238	277	45	We therefore use multivariate Monte Carlo simulation to sample parameter values from uniform distributions of six model parameters (time-to-pandemic, case fatality proportion, hospitalization proportion, discount rate, intervention cost and intervention effectiveness), repeating 20 000 times to produce results from a wide range of parameter combinations. The purpose of this study is to determine whether uncertainty in the number of years before a pandemic occurs (time-topandemic) is important in cost-effectiveness analysis. Using elasticity to measure parameter importance is a logical step from routine sensitivity analysis of economic evaluation, which commonly presents a change in ICER given fixed univariate changes in an input parameter. simulations cost effective at a willingness-to-pay of US$900 per DALY averted does not differ substantially with different timeto-pandemic sampling distributions and the contribution of time-to-pandemic to uncertainty in the ICER remains high compared with other model parameters as measured by the MI. Mathematical models to assess the cost effectiveness of pandemic preparedness options should include probabilistic sensitivity or uncertainty analysis of time-to-pandemic.	./cache/cord-013275-n7sf5ude.txt	./txt/cord-013275-n7sf5ude.txt