id sid tid token lemma pos cord-256676-b7p92sb1 1 1 key key JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 1 2 : : : cord-256676-b7p92sb1 1 3 cord-256676-b7p92sb1 cord-256676-b7p92sb1 NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 1 4 authors author NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 1 5 : : : cord-256676-b7p92sb1 1 6 Syed Syed NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 1 7 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 1 8 Faiza Faiza NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 1 9 ; ; : cord-256676-b7p92sb1 1 10 Sibgatullah Sibgatullah NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 1 11 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 2 1 Syed Syed NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 2 2 title title NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 2 3 : : : cord-256676-b7p92sb1 2 4 Estimation estimation NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 2 5 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 2 6 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 2 7 Final Final NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 2 8 Size Size NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 2 9 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 2 10 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 2 11 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 2 12 Epidemic Epidemic NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 2 13 in in IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 2 14 Pakistan Pakistan NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 2 15 date date NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 2 16 : : : cord-256676-b7p92sb1 2 17 2020 2020 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 2 18 - - HYPH cord-256676-b7p92sb1 2 19 04 04 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 2 20 - - HYPH cord-256676-b7p92sb1 2 21 06 06 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 2 22 journal journal NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 2 23 : : : cord-256676-b7p92sb1 3 1 nan nan NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 3 2 DOI DOI NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 3 3 : : : cord-256676-b7p92sb1 4 1 10.1101/2020.04.01.20050369 10.1101/2020.04.01.20050369 NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 4 2 sha sha NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 4 3 : : : cord-256676-b7p92sb1 4 4 300183d862ef809c734535bb79928efa4cdcd208 300183d862ef809c734535bb79928efa4cdcd208 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 4 5 doc_id doc_id CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 4 6 : : : cord-256676-b7p92sb1 4 7 256676 256676 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 4 8 cord_uid cord_uid NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 4 9 : : : cord-256676-b7p92sb1 4 10 b7p92sb1 b7p92sb1 . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 5 1 The the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 5 2 COVID-19 covid-19 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 5 3 infections infection NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 5 4 in in IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 5 5 Pakistan Pakistan NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 5 6 are be VBP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 5 7 spreading spread VBG cord-256676-b7p92sb1 5 8 at at IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 5 9 an an DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 5 10 exponential exponential JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 5 11 rate rate NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 5 12 and and CC cord-256676-b7p92sb1 5 13 a a DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 5 14 point point NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 5 15 may may MD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 5 16 soon soon RB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 5 17 be be VB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 5 18 reached reach VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 5 19 where where WRB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 5 20 rigorous rigorous JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 5 21 prevention prevention NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 5 22 measures measure NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 5 23 would would MD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 5 24 need need VB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 5 25 to to TO cord-256676-b7p92sb1 5 26 be be VB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 5 27 adopted adopt VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 5 28 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 6 1 Mathematical mathematical JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 6 2 models model NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 6 3 can can MD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 6 4 help help VB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 6 5 define define VB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 6 6 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 6 7 scale scale NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 6 8 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 6 9 an an DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 6 10 epidemic epidemic NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 6 11 and and CC cord-256676-b7p92sb1 6 12 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 6 13 rate rate NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 6 14 at at IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 6 15 which which WDT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 6 16 an an DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 6 17 infection infection NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 6 18 can can MD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 6 19 spread spread VB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 6 20 in in IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 6 21 a a DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 6 22 community community NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 6 23 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 7 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 7 2 used use VBD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 7 3 an an DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 7 4 SIR SIR NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 7 5 model model NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 7 6 to to TO cord-256676-b7p92sb1 7 7 predict predict VB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 7 8 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 7 9 magnitude magnitude NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 7 10 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 7 11 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 7 12 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 7 13 epidemic epidemic NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 7 14 in in IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 7 15 Pakistan Pakistan NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 7 16 and and CC cord-256676-b7p92sb1 7 17 compared compare VBD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 7 18 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 7 19 numbers number NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 7 20 with with IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 7 21 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 7 22 reported report VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 7 23 cases case NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 7 24 on on IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 7 25 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 7 26 national national JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 7 27 database database NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 7 28 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 8 1 Our -PRON- PRP$ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 8 2 results result NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 8 3 indicate indicate VBP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 8 4 that that IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 8 5 Pakistan Pakistan NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 8 6 could could MD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 8 7 hit hit VB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 8 8 peak peak JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 8 9 number number NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 8 10 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 8 11 infectious infectious JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 8 12 cases case NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 8 13 on on IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 8 14 May May NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 8 15 26th 26th NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 8 16 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 8 17 2020 2020 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 8 18 and and CC cord-256676-b7p92sb1 8 19 by by IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 8 20 June June NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 8 21 24th 24th NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 8 22 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 8 23 2020 2020 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 8 24 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 8 25 90 90 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 8 26 % % NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 8 27 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 8 28 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 8 29 population population NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 8 30 will will MD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 8 31 have have VB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 8 32 become become VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 8 33 infected infect VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 8 34 with with IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 8 35 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 8 36 virus virus NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 8 37 if if IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 8 38 policy policy NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 8 39 interventions intervention NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 8 40 seeking seek VBG cord-256676-b7p92sb1 8 41 to to TO cord-256676-b7p92sb1 8 42 curb curb VB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 8 43 this this DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 8 44 infection infection NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 8 45 are be VBP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 8 46 not not RB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 8 47 adopted adopt VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 8 48 aggressively aggressively RB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 8 49 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 9 1 The the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 9 2 first first JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 9 3 case case NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 9 4 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 9 5 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 9 6 emerged emerge VBD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 9 7 in in IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 9 8 Pakistan Pakistan NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 9 9 on on IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 9 10 26 26 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 9 11 th th DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 9 12 February February NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 9 13 2020 2020 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 9 14 in in IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 9 15 Karachi Karachi NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 9 16 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 9 17 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 9 18 most most RBS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 9 19 populous populous JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 9 20 city city NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 9 21 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 9 22 Pakistan Pakistan NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 9 23 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 10 1 The the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 10 2 patient patient NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 10 3 zero zero CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 10 4 had have VBD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 10 5 a a DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 10 6 travel travel NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 10 7 history history NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 10 8 to to IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 10 9 Iran Iran NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 10 10 and and CC cord-256676-b7p92sb1 10 11 immediately immediately RB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 10 12 quarantined quarantine VBD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 10 13 upon upon IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 10 14 testing test VBG cord-256676-b7p92sb1 10 15 positive positive JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 10 16 for for IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 10 17 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 10 18 virus virus NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 10 19 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 11 1 However however RB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 11 2 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 11 3 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 11 4 patient patient NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 11 5 was be VBD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 11 6 followed follow VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 11 7 by by IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 11 8 hundreds hundred NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 11 9 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 11 10 pilgrims pilgrim NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 11 11 returning return VBG cord-256676-b7p92sb1 11 12 from from IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 11 13 Iran Iran NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 11 14 which which WDT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 11 15 were be VBD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 11 16 likely likely RB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 11 17 carrying carry VBG cord-256676-b7p92sb1 11 18 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 11 19 virus virus NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 11 20 that that WDT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 11 21 ultimately ultimately RB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 11 22 led lead VBD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 11 23 to to IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 11 24 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 11 25 spread spread NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 11 26 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 11 27 COVID-19 covid-19 NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 11 28 into into IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 11 29 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 11 30 community community NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 11 31 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 12 1 Since since IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 12 2 then then RB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 12 3 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 12 4 infections infection NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 12 5 have have VBP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 12 6 been be VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 12 7 increasing increase VBG cord-256676-b7p92sb1 12 8 exponentially exponentially RB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 12 9 and and CC cord-256676-b7p92sb1 12 10 without without IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 12 11 proper proper JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 12 12 intervention intervention NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 12 13 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 12 14 situation situation NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 12 15 may may MD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 12 16 escalate escalate VB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 12 17 enough enough JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 12 18 to to TO cord-256676-b7p92sb1 12 19 overwhelm overwhelm VB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 12 20 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 12 21 already already RB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 12 22 struggling struggle VBG cord-256676-b7p92sb1 12 23 healthcare healthcare NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 12 24 system system NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 12 25 in in IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 12 26 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 12 27 country country NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 12 28 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 13 1 recovered recover VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 13 2 cases case NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 14 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-256676-b7p92sb1 14 2 R r NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 14 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-256676-b7p92sb1 14 4 are be VBP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 14 5 compartments compartment NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 14 6 and and CC cord-256676-b7p92sb1 14 7 each each DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 14 8 individual individual NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 14 9 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 14 10 a a DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 14 11 given give VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 14 12 population population NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 14 13 will will MD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 14 14 pass pass VB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 14 15 through through IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 14 16 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 14 17 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 14 18 phase phase NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 14 19 then then RB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 14 20 to to IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 14 21 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 14 22 infected infected JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 14 23 phase phase NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 14 24 and and CC cord-256676-b7p92sb1 14 25 finally finally RB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 14 26 to to IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 14 27 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 14 28 recovered recovered JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 14 29 phase phase NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 14 30 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 15 1 The the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 15 2 SIR SIR NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 15 3 model model NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 15 4 is be VBZ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 15 5 a a DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 15 6 steady steady JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 15 7 state state NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 15 8 model model NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 15 9 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 15 10 therefore therefore RB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 15 11 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 15 12 population population NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 15 13 that that WDT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 15 14 is be VBZ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 15 15 analysed analyse VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 15 16 is be VBZ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 15 17 static static JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 15 18 i.e. i.e. FW cord-256676-b7p92sb1 15 19 no no DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 15 20 one one NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 15 21 is be VBZ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 15 22 being be VBG cord-256676-b7p92sb1 15 23 born bear VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 15 24 or or CC cord-256676-b7p92sb1 15 25 is be VBZ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 15 26 dying die VBG cord-256676-b7p92sb1 15 27 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 16 1 Additionally additionally RB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 16 2 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 16 3 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 16 4 model model NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 16 5 assumes assume VBZ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 16 6 that that IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 16 7 once once RB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 16 8 a a DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 16 9 person person NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 16 10 is be VBZ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 16 11 infected infect VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 16 12 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 16 13 they -PRON- PRP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 16 14 are be VBP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 16 15 immune immune JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 16 16 to to IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 16 17 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 16 18 disease disease NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 16 19 and and CC cord-256676-b7p92sb1 16 20 therefore therefore RB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 16 21 can can MD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 16 22 not not RB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 16 23 contract contract VB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 16 24 it -PRON- PRP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 16 25 again again RB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 16 26 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 17 1 The the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 17 2 SIR SIR NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 17 3 model model NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 17 4 is be VBZ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 17 5 ideal ideal JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 17 6 for for IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 17 7 modelling model VBG cord-256676-b7p92sb1 17 8 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 17 9 spread spread NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 17 10 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 17 11 diseases disease NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 17 12 spread spread VBP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 17 13 through through IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 17 14 person person NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 17 15 to to IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 17 16 person person NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 17 17 contact contact NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 17 18 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 18 1 In in IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 18 2 this this DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 18 3 study study NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 18 4 we -PRON- PRP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 18 5 aim aim VBP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 18 6 to to TO cord-256676-b7p92sb1 18 7 model model VB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 18 8 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 18 9 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 18 10 epidemic epidemic NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 18 11 in in IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 18 12 Pakistan Pakistan NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 18 13 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 18 14 which which WDT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 18 15 will will MD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 18 16 indicate indicate VB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 18 17 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 18 18 peak peak NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 18 19 infection infection NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 18 20 day day NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 18 21 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 18 22 rate rate NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 18 23 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 18 24 increase increase NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 18 25 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 18 26 infections infection NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 18 27 per per IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 18 28 day day NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 18 29 and and CC cord-256676-b7p92sb1 18 30 a a DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 18 31 90-day 90-day CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 18 32 forecast forecast NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 18 33 to to TO cord-256676-b7p92sb1 18 34 assess assess VB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 18 35 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 18 36 final final JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 18 37 size size NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 18 38 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 18 39 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 18 40 epidemic epidemic NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 18 41 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 1 The the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 2 model model NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 3 is be VBZ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 4 built build VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 5 on on IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 6 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 7 following following JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 8 set set NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 9 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 10 assumptions assumption NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 11 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 12 based base VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 13 on on IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 14 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 15 methodology methodology NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 16 described describe VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 17 by by IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 18 Ronald Ronald NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 19 Ross Ross NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 20 and and CC cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 21 William William NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 22 Hammer Hammer NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 23 1 1 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 24 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 25 is be VBZ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 26 expressed express VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 27 as as IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 28 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 29 following follow VBG cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 30 differential differential JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 31 equations equation NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 32 : : : cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 33 The the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 34 basic basic JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 35 assumption assumption NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 36 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 37 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 38 SIR SIR NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 39 model model NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 40 is be VBZ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 41 that that IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 42 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 43 total total JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 44 number number NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 45 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 46 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 47 infected infect VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 48 and and CC cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 49 recovered recover VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 50 cases case NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 51 at at IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 52 any any DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 53 given give VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 54 time time NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 55 is be VBZ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 56 equivalent equivalent JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 57 to to IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 58 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 59 test test NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 60 population population NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 61 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 62 so so CC cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 63 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 64 equations equation NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 65 can can MD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 66 be be VB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 67 represented represent VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 68 as as IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 69 : : : cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 70 The the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 71 basic basic JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 72 reproduction reproduction NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 73 number number NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 74 ( ( -LRB- cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 75 R˳ R˳ NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 76 ) ) -RRB- cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 77 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 78 is be VBZ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 79 a a DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 80 ratio ratio NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 81 between between IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 82 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 83 fraction fraction NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 84 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 85 individuals individual NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 86 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 87 per per IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 88 day day NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 89 ( ( -LRB- cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 90 β β NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 91 ) ) -RRB- cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 92 and and CC cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 93 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 94 fraction fraction NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 95 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 96 recoveries recovery NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 97 ( ( -LRB- cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 98 γ γ NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 99 ) ) -RRB- cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 100 ; ; : cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 101 represented represent VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 102 as as IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 103 : : : cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 104 The the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 105 value value NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 106 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 107 R˳ R˳ NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 108 plays play VBZ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 109 a a DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 110 significant significant JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 111 role role NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 112 in in IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 113 determining determine VBG cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 114 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 115 infectiousness infectiousness NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 116 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 117 a a DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 118 certain certain JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 119 diseasecausing diseasecause VBG cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 120 organism organism NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 19 121 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 20 1 Therefore therefore RB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 20 2 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 20 3 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 20 4 rate rate NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 20 5 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 20 6 change change NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 20 7 in in IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 20 8 infected infected JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 20 9 individuals individual NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 20 10 is be VBZ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 20 11 directly directly RB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 20 12 dependent dependent JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 20 13 on on IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 20 14 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 20 15 R˳ R˳ NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 20 16 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 20 17 given give VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 20 18 by by IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 20 19 : : : cord-256676-b7p92sb1 20 20 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 21 1 CC CC NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 21 2 - - HYPH cord-256676-b7p92sb1 21 3 BY BY NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 21 4 - - HYPH cord-256676-b7p92sb1 21 5 ND ND NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 21 6 4.0 4.0 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 21 7 International international JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 21 8 license license NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 22 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 22 2 is be VBZ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 22 3 made make VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 22 4 available available JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 22 5 under under IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 22 6 a a DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 23 1 is be VBZ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 23 2 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 23 3 author author NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 23 4 / / SYM cord-256676-b7p92sb1 23 5 funder funder NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 23 6 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 23 7 who who WP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 23 8 has have VBZ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 23 9 granted grant VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 23 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 23 11 a a DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 23 12 license license NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 23 13 to to TO cord-256676-b7p92sb1 23 14 display display VB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 23 15 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 23 16 preprint preprint NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 23 17 in in IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 23 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 23 19 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 24 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-256676-b7p92sb1 24 2 which which WDT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 24 3 was be VBD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 24 4 not not RB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 24 5 peer peer NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 24 6 - - HYPH cord-256676-b7p92sb1 24 7 reviewed review VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 24 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-256676-b7p92sb1 25 1 The the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 25 2 copyright copyright NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 25 3 holder holder NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 25 4 for for IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 25 5 this this DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 25 6 preprint preprint NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 25 7 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 26 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.01.20050369 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.01.20050369 NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 26 2 doi doi NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 26 3 : : : cord-256676-b7p92sb1 27 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 27 2 preprint preprint NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 27 3 Further further JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 27 4 assumptions assumption NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 27 5 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 27 6 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 27 7 SIR SIR NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 27 8 model model NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 27 9 assume assume VB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 27 10 that that IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 27 11 if if IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 27 12 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 27 13 R˳ R˳ NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 27 14 is be VBZ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 27 15 greater great JJR cord-256676-b7p92sb1 27 16 than than IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 27 17 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 27 18 ratio ratio NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 27 19 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 27 20 total total JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 27 21 population population NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 27 22 and and CC cord-256676-b7p92sb1 27 23 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 27 24 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 27 25 cases case NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 27 26 at at IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 27 27 time time NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 27 28 zero zero CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 27 29 then then RB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 27 30 it -PRON- PRP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 27 31 would would MD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 27 32 imply imply VB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 27 33 that that IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 27 34 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 27 35 outbreak outbreak NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 27 36 will will MD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 27 37 turn turn VB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 27 38 into into IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 27 39 a a DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 27 40 full full RB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 27 41 - - HYPH cord-256676-b7p92sb1 27 42 fledged fledged JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 27 43 epidemic epidemic NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 27 44 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 28 1 Similarly similarly RB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 28 2 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 28 3 if if IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 28 4 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 28 5 R˳ R˳ NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 28 6 is be VBZ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 28 7 less less JJR cord-256676-b7p92sb1 28 8 than than IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 28 9 N N NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 28 10 / / SYM cord-256676-b7p92sb1 28 11 S S NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 28 12 ( ( -LRB- cord-256676-b7p92sb1 28 13 0 0 NFP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 28 14 ) ) -RRB- cord-256676-b7p92sb1 28 15 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 28 16 then then RB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 28 17 it -PRON- PRP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 28 18 would would MD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 28 19 imply imply VB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 28 20 that that IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 28 21 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 28 22 outbreak outbreak NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 28 23 will will MD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 28 24 not not RB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 28 25 cause cause VB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 28 26 an an DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 28 27 epidemic epidemic NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 28 28 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 29 1 Therefore therefore RB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 29 2 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 29 3 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 29 4 R˳ R˳ NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 29 5 plays play VBZ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 29 6 a a DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 29 7 crucial crucial JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 29 8 role role NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 29 9 in in IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 29 10 determining determine VBG cord-256676-b7p92sb1 29 11 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 29 12 fate fate NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 29 13 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 29 14 an an DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 29 15 epidemic epidemic NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 29 16 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 30 1 The the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 30 2 data datum NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 30 3 was be VBD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 30 4 extracted extract VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 30 5 from from IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 30 6 daily daily JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 30 7 situation situation NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 30 8 reports report NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 30 9 published publish VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 30 10 on on IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 30 11 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 30 12 National National NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 30 13 Institute Institute NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 30 14 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 30 15 Health Health NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 30 16 ( ( -LRB- cord-256676-b7p92sb1 30 17 NIH NIH NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 30 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-256676-b7p92sb1 30 19 Pakistan Pakistan NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 30 20 for for IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 30 21 a a DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 30 22 period period NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 30 23 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 30 24 33 33 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 30 25 days day NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 30 26 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 30 27 ( ( -LRB- cord-256676-b7p92sb1 30 28 from from IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 30 29 26 26 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 30 30 February February NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 30 31 2020 2020 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 30 32 to to IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 30 33 28 28 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 30 34 th th DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 30 35 March March NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 30 36 2020 2020 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 30 37 ) ) -RRB- cord-256676-b7p92sb1 30 38 and and CC cord-256676-b7p92sb1 30 39 was be VBD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 30 40 corroborated corroborate VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 30 41 with with IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 30 42 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 30 43 simulation simulation NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 30 44 results result NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 30 45 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 31 1 In in IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 31 2 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 31 3 case case NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 31 4 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 31 5 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 31 6 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 31 7 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 31 8 value value NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 31 9 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 31 10 R˳ R˳ NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 31 11 is be VBZ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 31 12 highly highly RB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 31 13 variable variable JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 31 14 and and CC cord-256676-b7p92sb1 31 15 varies vary VBZ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 31 16 from from IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 31 17 country country NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 31 18 to to IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 31 19 country country NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 31 20 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 32 1 Several several JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 32 2 sources source NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 32 3 2 2 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 32 4 - - SYM cord-256676-b7p92sb1 32 5 7 7 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 32 6 report report NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 32 7 a a DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 32 8 range range NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 32 9 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 32 10 R˳ R˳ NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 32 11 values value NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 32 12 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 32 13 between between IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 32 14 1.4 1.4 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 32 15 -3.9 -3.9 CC cord-256676-b7p92sb1 32 16 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 32 17 therefore therefore RB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 32 18 we -PRON- PRP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 32 19 took take VBD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 32 20 an an DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 32 21 average average JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 32 22 value value NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 32 23 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 32 24 2.65 2.65 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 32 25 for for IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 32 26 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 32 27 current current JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 32 28 analysis analysis NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 32 29 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 33 1 The the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 33 2 value value NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 33 3 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 33 4 R˳ R˳ NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 33 5 will will MD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 33 6 continue continue VB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 33 7 to to TO cord-256676-b7p92sb1 33 8 evolve evolve VB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 33 9 as as IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 33 10 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 33 11 epidemic epidemic NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 33 12 progresses progress VBZ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 33 13 throughout throughout IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 33 14 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 33 15 globe globe NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 33 16 ; ; : cord-256676-b7p92sb1 33 17 till till IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 33 18 then then RB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 33 19 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 33 20 we -PRON- PRP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 33 21 do do VBP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 33 22 not not RB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 33 23 have have VB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 33 24 an an DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 33 25 exact exact JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 33 26 figure figure NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 33 27 2 2 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 33 28 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 34 1 The the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 34 2 value value NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 34 3 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 34 4 γ γ NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 34 5 was be VBD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 34 6 considered consider VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 34 7 based base VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 34 8 on on IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 34 9 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 34 10 average average JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 34 11 infectious infectious JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 34 12 period period NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 34 13 for for IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 34 14 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 34 15 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 34 16 so so RB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 34 17 γ=0.14 γ=0.14 NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 34 18 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 35 1 The the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 35 2 value value NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 35 3 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 35 4 β β NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 35 5 was be VBD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 35 6 calculated calculate VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 35 7 to to TO cord-256676-b7p92sb1 35 8 be be VB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 35 9 0.378 0.378 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 35 10 from from IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 35 11 equation equation NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 35 12 2.2 2.2 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 35 13 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 36 1 The the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 36 2 S0 S0 NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 36 3 was be VBD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 36 4 assumed assume VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 36 5 to to TO cord-256676-b7p92sb1 36 6 be be VB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 36 7 220,000,000 220,000,000 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 36 8 since since IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 36 9 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 36 10 entire entire JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 36 11 population population NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 36 12 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 36 13 Pakistan Pakistan NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 36 14 is be VBZ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 36 15 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 36 16 to to IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 36 17 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 36 18 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 36 19 as as IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 36 20 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 36 21 disease disease NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 36 22 is be VBZ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 36 23 new new JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 36 24 and and CC cord-256676-b7p92sb1 36 25 is be VBZ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 36 26 spreading spread VBG cord-256676-b7p92sb1 36 27 across across IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 36 28 all all DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 36 29 regions region NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 36 30 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 36 31 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 36 32 country country NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 36 33 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 37 1 The the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 37 2 initial initial JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 37 3 time time NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 37 4 T T NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 37 5 was be VBD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 37 6 set set VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 37 7 to to TO cord-256676-b7p92sb1 37 8 be be VB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 37 9 day day NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 37 10 1 1 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 37 11 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 37 12 when when WRB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 37 13 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 37 14 first first JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 37 15 2 2 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 37 16 cases case NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 37 17 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 37 18 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 37 19 arrived arrive VBD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 37 20 in in IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 37 21 Karachi Karachi NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 37 22 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 38 1 The the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 38 2 simulation simulation NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 38 3 was be VBD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 38 4 used use VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 38 5 to to TO cord-256676-b7p92sb1 38 6 predict predict VB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 38 7 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 38 8 number number NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 38 9 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 38 10 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 38 11 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 38 12 infected infected JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 38 13 and and CC cord-256676-b7p92sb1 38 14 recovered recover VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 38 15 cases case NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 38 16 for for IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 38 17 a a DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 38 18 period period NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 38 19 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 38 20 120 120 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 38 21 days day NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 38 22 starting start VBG cord-256676-b7p92sb1 38 23 from from IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 38 24 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 38 25 day day NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 38 26 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 38 27 first first JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 38 28 cases case NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 38 29 arrived arrive VBD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 38 30 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 38 31 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 39 1 CC CC NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 39 2 - - HYPH cord-256676-b7p92sb1 39 3 BY BY NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 39 4 - - HYPH cord-256676-b7p92sb1 39 5 ND ND NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 39 6 4.0 4.0 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 39 7 International international JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 39 8 license license NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 40 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 40 2 is be VBZ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 40 3 made make VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 40 4 available available JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 40 5 under under IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 40 6 a a DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 41 1 is be VBZ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 41 2 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 41 3 author author NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 41 4 / / SYM cord-256676-b7p92sb1 41 5 funder funder NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 41 6 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 41 7 who who WP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 41 8 has have VBZ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 41 9 granted grant VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 41 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 41 11 a a DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 41 12 license license NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 41 13 to to TO cord-256676-b7p92sb1 41 14 display display VB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 41 15 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 41 16 preprint preprint NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 41 17 in in IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 41 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 41 19 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 42 1 The the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 42 2 copyright copyright NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 42 3 holder holder NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 42 4 for for IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 42 5 this this DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 42 6 preprint preprint NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 42 7 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 43 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.01.20050369 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.01.20050369 NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 43 2 doi doi NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 43 3 : : : cord-256676-b7p92sb1 44 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 44 2 preprint preprint NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 45 1 The the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 45 2 NIH NIH NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 45 3 Pakistan Pakistan NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 45 4 data datum NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 45 5 for for IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 45 6 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 45 7 cumulative cumulative JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 45 8 cases case NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 45 9 and and CC cord-256676-b7p92sb1 45 10 daily daily RB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 45 11 reported report VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 45 12 cases case NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 45 13 was be VBD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 45 14 plotted plot VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 45 15 to to TO cord-256676-b7p92sb1 45 16 observe observe VB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 45 17 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 45 18 increase increase NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 45 19 in in IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 45 20 number number NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 45 21 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 45 22 cases case NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 45 23 for for IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 45 24 a a DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 45 25 period period NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 45 26 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 45 27 33 33 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 45 28 days day NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 45 29 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 46 1 The the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 46 2 current current JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 46 3 trajectory trajectory NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 46 4 suggests suggest VBZ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 46 5 an an DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 46 6 exponential exponential JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 46 7 increase increase NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 46 8 in in IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 46 9 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 46 10 number number NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 46 11 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 46 12 cases case NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 46 13 since since IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 46 14 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 46 15 epidemic epidemic NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 46 16 started start VBD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 46 17 in in IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 46 18 Pakistan Pakistan NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 46 19 on on IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 46 20 26 26 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 46 21 th th DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 46 22 February February NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 46 23 2020 2020 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 46 24 ( ( -LRB- cord-256676-b7p92sb1 46 25 figure figure NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 46 26 5.1 5.1 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 46 27 ) ) -RRB- cord-256676-b7p92sb1 46 28 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 47 1 The the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 47 2 data datum NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 47 3 on on IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 47 4 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 47 5 number number NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 47 6 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 47 7 daily daily JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 47 8 reported report VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 47 9 cases case NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 47 10 also also RB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 47 11 reflects reflect VBZ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 47 12 a a DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 47 13 general general JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 47 14 increasing increase VBG cord-256676-b7p92sb1 47 15 trend trend NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 47 16 as as IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 47 17 testing testing NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 47 18 for for IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 47 19 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 47 20 gathers gather VBZ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 47 21 pace pace NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 47 22 ( ( -LRB- cord-256676-b7p92sb1 47 23 figure figure NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 47 24 5.2 5.2 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 47 25 ) ) -RRB- cord-256676-b7p92sb1 47 26 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 48 1 is be VBZ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 48 2 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 48 3 author author NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 48 4 / / SYM cord-256676-b7p92sb1 48 5 funder funder NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 48 6 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 48 7 who who WP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 48 8 has have VBZ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 48 9 granted grant VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 48 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 48 11 a a DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 48 12 license license NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 48 13 to to TO cord-256676-b7p92sb1 48 14 display display VB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 48 15 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 48 16 preprint preprint NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 48 17 in in IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 48 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 48 19 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 49 1 The the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 49 2 copyright copyright NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 49 3 holder holder NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 49 4 for for IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 49 5 this this DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 49 6 preprint preprint NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 49 7 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 50 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.01.20050369 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.01.20050369 NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 50 2 doi doi NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 50 3 : : : cord-256676-b7p92sb1 51 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 51 2 preprint preprint NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 51 3 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 52 1 CC CC NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 52 2 - - HYPH cord-256676-b7p92sb1 52 3 BY BY NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 52 4 - - HYPH cord-256676-b7p92sb1 52 5 ND ND NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 52 6 4.0 4.0 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 52 7 International international JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 52 8 license license NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 53 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 53 2 is be VBZ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 53 3 made make VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 53 4 available available JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 53 5 under under IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 53 6 a a DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 54 1 is be VBZ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 54 2 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 54 3 author author NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 54 4 / / SYM cord-256676-b7p92sb1 54 5 funder funder NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 54 6 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 54 7 who who WP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 54 8 has have VBZ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 54 9 granted grant VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 54 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 54 11 a a DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 54 12 license license NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 54 13 to to TO cord-256676-b7p92sb1 54 14 display display VB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 54 15 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 54 16 preprint preprint NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 54 17 in in IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 54 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 54 19 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 55 1 The the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 55 2 copyright copyright NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 55 3 holder holder NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 55 4 for for IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 55 5 this this DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 55 6 preprint preprint NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 55 7 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 56 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.01.20050369 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.01.20050369 NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 56 2 doi doi NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 56 3 : : : cord-256676-b7p92sb1 57 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 57 2 preprint preprint NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 57 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-256676-b7p92sb1 57 4 r=0.97 r=0.97 NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 57 5 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 57 6 p<0.001 p<0.001 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 57 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-256676-b7p92sb1 57 8 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 58 1 The the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 58 2 modelled model VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 58 3 data datum NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 58 4 is be VBZ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 58 5 represented represent VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 58 6 as as IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 58 7 a a DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 58 8 Blue blue JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 58 9 line line NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 58 10 and and CC cord-256676-b7p92sb1 58 11 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 58 12 reported report VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 58 13 data datum NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 58 14 is be VBZ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 58 15 represented represent VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 58 16 as as IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 58 17 an an DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 58 18 Orange Orange NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 58 19 line line NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 58 20 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 59 1 The the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 59 2 x x NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 59 3 - - HYPH cord-256676-b7p92sb1 59 4 axis axis NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 59 5 represents represent VBZ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 59 6 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 59 7 number number NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 59 8 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 59 9 days day NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 59 10 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 59 11 whereas whereas IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 59 12 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 59 13 y y NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 59 14 - - HYPH cord-256676-b7p92sb1 59 15 axis axis NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 59 16 represents represent VBZ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 59 17 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 59 18 number number NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 59 19 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 59 20 cases case NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 59 21 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 59 22 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 60 1 CC CC NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 60 2 - - HYPH cord-256676-b7p92sb1 60 3 BY BY NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 60 4 - - HYPH cord-256676-b7p92sb1 60 5 ND ND NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 60 6 4.0 4.0 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 60 7 International international JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 60 8 license license NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 61 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 61 2 is be VBZ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 61 3 made make VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 61 4 available available JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 61 5 under under IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 61 6 a a DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 62 1 is be VBZ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 62 2 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 62 3 author author NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 62 4 / / SYM cord-256676-b7p92sb1 62 5 funder funder NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 62 6 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 62 7 who who WP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 62 8 has have VBZ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 62 9 granted grant VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 62 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 62 11 a a DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 62 12 license license NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 62 13 to to TO cord-256676-b7p92sb1 62 14 display display VB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 62 15 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 62 16 preprint preprint NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 62 17 in in IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 62 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 62 19 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 63 1 The the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 63 2 copyright copyright NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 63 3 holder holder NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 63 4 for for IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 63 5 this this DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 63 6 preprint preprint NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 63 7 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 64 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.01.20050369 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.01.20050369 NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 64 2 doi doi NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 64 3 : : : cord-256676-b7p92sb1 65 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 65 2 preprint preprint NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 66 1 Our -PRON- PRP$ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 66 2 study study NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 66 3 was be VBD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 66 4 focused focus VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 66 5 on on IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 66 6 modelling model VBG cord-256676-b7p92sb1 66 7 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 66 8 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 66 9 epidemic epidemic NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 66 10 in in IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 66 11 Pakistan Pakistan NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 66 12 in in IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 66 13 order order NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 66 14 to to TO cord-256676-b7p92sb1 66 15 estimate estimate VB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 66 16 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 66 17 number number NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 66 18 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 66 19 infections infection NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 66 20 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 66 21 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 66 22 peak peak NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 66 23 infection infection NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 66 24 day day NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 66 25 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 66 26 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 66 27 rate rate NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 66 28 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 66 29 increase increase NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 66 30 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 66 31 infections infection NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 66 32 per per IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 66 33 day day NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 66 34 and and CC cord-256676-b7p92sb1 66 35 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 66 36 resolution resolution NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 66 37 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 66 38 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 66 39 end end NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 66 40 - - HYPH cord-256676-b7p92sb1 66 41 point point NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 66 42 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 66 43 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 66 44 epidemic epidemic NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 66 45 1 1 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 66 46 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 67 1 The the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 67 2 simulation simulation NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 67 3 parameters parameter NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 67 4 were be VBD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 67 5 adjusted adjust VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 67 6 according accord VBG cord-256676-b7p92sb1 67 7 to to IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 67 8 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 67 9 population population NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 67 10 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 67 11 Pakistan Pakistan NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 67 12 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 68 1 Our -PRON- PRP$ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 68 2 model model NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 68 3 simulated simulate VBD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 68 4 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 68 5 conditions condition NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 68 6 where where WRB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 68 7 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 68 8 is be VBZ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 68 9 spreading spread VBG cord-256676-b7p92sb1 68 10 in in IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 68 11 a a DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 68 12 closed closed JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 68 13 population population NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 68 14 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 68 15 220,000,000 220,000,000 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 68 16 people people NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 68 17 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 68 18 without without IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 68 19 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 68 20 effect effect NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 68 21 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 68 22 any any DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 68 23 extraneous extraneous JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 68 24 variables variable NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 68 25 such such JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 68 26 as as IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 68 27 social social JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 68 28 distancing distancing NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 68 29 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 68 30 hand hand NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 68 31 washing washing NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 68 32 or or CC cord-256676-b7p92sb1 68 33 travel travel NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 68 34 restrictions restriction NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 68 35 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 69 1 The the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 69 2 values value NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 69 3 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 69 4 R˳=2.65 r˳=2.65 NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 69 5 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 69 6 β=0.378 β=0.378 NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 69 7 and and CC cord-256676-b7p92sb1 69 8 γ=0.14 γ=0.14 NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 69 9 generated generate VBD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 69 10 data datum NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 69 11 which which WDT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 69 12 was be VBD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 69 13 quite quite RB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 69 14 close close JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 69 15 to to IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 69 16 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 69 17 actual actual JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 69 18 reported report VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 69 19 cases case NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 69 20 in in IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 69 21 Pakistan Pakistan NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 69 22 ( ( -LRB- cord-256676-b7p92sb1 69 23 figure figure NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 69 24 5.4 5.4 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 69 25 ) ) -RRB- cord-256676-b7p92sb1 69 26 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 70 1 Furthermore furthermore RB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 70 2 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 70 3 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 70 4 trends trend NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 70 5 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 70 6 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 70 7 modelled model VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 70 8 I I NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 70 9 and and CC cord-256676-b7p92sb1 70 10 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 70 11 reported reported JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 70 12 number number NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 70 13 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 70 14 infections infection NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 70 15 coincide coincide VBP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 70 16 significantly significantly RB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 70 17 ( ( -LRB- cord-256676-b7p92sb1 70 18 r=0.97 r=0.97 NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 70 19 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 70 20 p<0.001 p<0.001 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 70 21 ) ) -RRB- cord-256676-b7p92sb1 70 22 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 71 1 Thus thus RB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 71 2 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 71 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 71 4 can can MD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 71 5 safely safely RB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 71 6 assume assume VB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 71 7 that that IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 71 8 these these DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 71 9 results result NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 71 10 can can MD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 71 11 be be VB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 71 12 used use VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 71 13 as as IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 71 14 a a DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 71 15 predictor predictor NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 71 16 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 71 17 a a DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 71 18 likely likely JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 71 19 scenario scenario NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 71 20 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 71 21 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 71 22 for for IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 71 23 Pakistan Pakistan NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 71 24 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 72 1 According accord VBG cord-256676-b7p92sb1 72 2 to to IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 72 3 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 72 4 simulations simulation NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 72 5 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 72 6 peak peak NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 72 7 infection infection NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 72 8 day day NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 72 9 will will MD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 72 10 occur occur VB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 72 11 on on IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 72 12 26 26 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 72 13 th th XX cord-256676-b7p92sb1 72 14 May May NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 72 15 2020 2020 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 72 16 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 72 17 where where WRB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 72 18 5,921,1209 5,921,1209 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 72 19 persons person NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 72 20 could could MD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 72 21 get get VB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 72 22 infected infect VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 72 23 with with IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 72 24 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 72 25 virus virus NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 72 26 in in IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 72 27 a a DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 72 28 single single JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 72 29 day day NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 72 30 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 73 1 Previous previous JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 73 2 reports report NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 73 3 from from IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 73 4 China China NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 73 5 8 8 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 73 6 have have VBP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 73 7 indicated indicate VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 73 8 that that IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 73 9 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 73 10 initially initially RB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 73 11 follows follow VBZ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 73 12 an an DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 73 13 exponential exponential JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 73 14 growth growth NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 73 15 pattern pattern NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 73 16 9 9 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 73 17 coupled couple VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 73 18 with with IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 73 19 asymptomatic asymptomatic JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 73 20 carriers carrier NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 73 21 10 10 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 73 22 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 73 23 leads lead VBZ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 73 24 to to IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 73 25 a a DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 73 26 rapid rapid JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 73 27 increase increase NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 73 28 in in IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 73 29 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 73 30 number number NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 73 31 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 73 32 infections infection NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 73 33 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 74 1 Correlating correlate VBG cord-256676-b7p92sb1 74 2 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 74 3 reported report VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 74 4 data datum NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 74 5 with with IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 74 6 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 74 7 simulations simulation NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 74 8 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 74 9 we -PRON- PRP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 74 10 can can MD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 74 11 assume assume VB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 74 12 that that IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 74 13 if if IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 74 14 left leave VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 74 15 unchecked unchecked JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 74 16 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 74 17 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 74 18 disease disease NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 74 19 can can MD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 74 20 spread spread VB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 74 21 at at IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 74 22 an an DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 74 23 unprecedented unprecedented JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 74 24 rate rate NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 74 25 in in IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 74 26 Pakistan Pakistan NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 74 27 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 74 28 especially especially RB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 74 29 in in IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 74 30 closely closely RB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 74 31 knit knit VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 74 32 communities community NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 74 33 and and CC cord-256676-b7p92sb1 74 34 densely densely RB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 74 35 populated populated JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 74 36 areas area NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 74 37 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 75 1 The the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 75 2 results result NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 75 3 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 75 4 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 75 5 study study NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 75 6 also also RB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 75 7 predict predict VBP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 75 8 that that IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 75 9 within within IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 75 10 a a DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 75 11 time time NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 75 12 span span NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 75 13 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 75 14 120 120 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 75 15 days day NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 75 16 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 75 17 90 90 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 75 18 % % NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 75 19 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 75 20 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 75 21 population population NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 75 22 will will MD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 75 23 have have VB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 75 24 been be VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 75 25 infected infect VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 75 26 with with IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 75 27 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 75 28 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 76 1 These these DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 76 2 include include VBP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 76 3 asymptomatic asymptomatic JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 76 4 carriers carrier NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 76 5 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 76 6 which which WDT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 76 7 could could MD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 76 8 account account VB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 76 9 for for IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 76 10 approximately approximately RB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 76 11 20 20 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 76 12 % % NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 76 13 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 76 14 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 76 15 population population NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 76 16 11 11 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 76 17 and and CC cord-256676-b7p92sb1 76 18 will will MD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 76 19 have have VB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 76 20 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 76 21 tendency tendency NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 76 22 to to TO cord-256676-b7p92sb1 76 23 unknowingly unknowingly RB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 76 24 infect infect VB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 76 25 others other NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 76 26 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 77 1 However however RB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 77 2 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 77 3 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 77 4 major major JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 77 5 concern concern NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 77 6 for for IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 77 7 Pakistan Pakistan NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 77 8 would would MD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 77 9 be be VB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 77 10 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 77 11 healthcare healthcare NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 77 12 system system NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 77 13 which which WDT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 77 14 would would MD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 77 15 not not RB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 77 16 be be VB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 77 17 able able JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 77 18 to to TO cord-256676-b7p92sb1 77 19 cope cope VB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 77 20 with with IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 77 21 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 77 22 overwhelming overwhelming JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 77 23 number number NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 77 24 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 77 25 patients patient NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 77 26 if if IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 77 27 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 77 28 trajectory trajectory NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 77 29 remains remain VBZ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 77 30 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 77 31 same same JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 77 32 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 78 1 Studies study NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 78 2 place place VBP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 78 3 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 78 4 mortality mortality NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 78 5 rate rate NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 78 6 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 78 7 COVID-19 covid-19 NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 78 8 at at IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 78 9 2.3 2.3 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 78 10 % % NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 78 11 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 78 12 severe severe JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 78 13 cases case NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 78 14 at at IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 78 15 14 14 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 78 16 % % NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 78 17 and and CC cord-256676-b7p92sb1 78 18 critical critical JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 78 19 cases case NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 78 20 at at IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 78 21 5 5 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 78 22 % % NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 78 23 12 12 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 78 24 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 78 25 13 13 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 78 26 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 78 27 which which WDT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 78 28 would would MD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 78 29 imply imply VB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 78 30 that that IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 78 31 potentially potentially RB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 78 32 50,000 50,000 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 78 33 could could MD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 78 34 die die VB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 78 35 ; ; : cord-256676-b7p92sb1 78 36 30,800,000 30,800,000 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 78 37 cases case NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 78 38 could could MD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 78 39 become become VB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 78 40 severe severe JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 78 41 and and CC cord-256676-b7p92sb1 78 42 11,000,000 11,000,000 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 78 43 could could MD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 78 44 become become VB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 78 45 critical critical JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 78 46 during during IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 78 47 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 78 48 aftermath aftermath NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 78 49 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 78 50 epidemic epidemic NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 78 51 in in IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 78 52 Pakistan Pakistan NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 78 53 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 79 1 Therefore therefore RB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 79 2 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 79 3 there there EX cord-256676-b7p92sb1 79 4 is be VBZ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 79 5 an an DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 79 6 urgent urgent JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 79 7 need need NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 79 8 to to TO cord-256676-b7p92sb1 79 9 implement implement VB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 79 10 effective effective JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 79 11 measures measure NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 79 12 to to TO cord-256676-b7p92sb1 79 13 curb curb VB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 79 14 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 79 15 rise rise NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 79 16 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 80 1 CC CC NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 80 2 - - HYPH cord-256676-b7p92sb1 80 3 BY BY NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 80 4 - - HYPH cord-256676-b7p92sb1 80 5 ND ND NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 80 6 4.0 4.0 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 80 7 International international JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 80 8 license license NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 81 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 81 2 is be VBZ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 81 3 made make VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 81 4 available available JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 81 5 under under IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 81 6 a a DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 82 1 is be VBZ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 82 2 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 82 3 author author NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 82 4 / / SYM cord-256676-b7p92sb1 82 5 funder funder NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 82 6 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 82 7 who who WP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 82 8 has have VBZ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 82 9 granted grant VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 82 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 82 11 a a DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 82 12 license license NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 82 13 to to TO cord-256676-b7p92sb1 82 14 display display VB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 82 15 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 82 16 preprint preprint NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 82 17 in in IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 82 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 82 19 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 83 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-256676-b7p92sb1 83 2 which which WDT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 83 3 was be VBD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 83 4 not not RB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 83 5 peer peer NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 83 6 - - HYPH cord-256676-b7p92sb1 83 7 reviewed review VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 83 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-256676-b7p92sb1 84 1 The the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 84 2 copyright copyright NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 84 3 holder holder NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 84 4 for for IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 84 5 this this DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 84 6 preprint preprint NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 84 7 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 85 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.01.20050369 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.01.20050369 NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 85 2 doi doi NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 85 3 : : : cord-256676-b7p92sb1 86 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 86 2 preprint preprint NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 87 1 Our -PRON- PRP$ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 87 2 study study NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 87 3 gives give VBZ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 87 4 a a DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 87 5 well well RB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 87 6 - - HYPH cord-256676-b7p92sb1 87 7 balanced balanced JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 87 8 estimate estimate NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 87 9 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 87 10 how how WRB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 87 11 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 87 12 COVD-19 COVD-19 NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 87 13 could could MD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 87 14 spread spread VB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 87 15 in in IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 87 16 Pakistan Pakistan NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 87 17 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 88 1 However however RB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 88 2 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 88 3 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 88 4 study study NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 88 5 has have VBZ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 88 6 a a DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 88 7 few few JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 88 8 limitations limitation NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 88 9 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 88 10 such such JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 88 11 as as IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 88 12 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 88 13 effect effect NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 88 14 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 88 15 extraneous extraneous JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 88 16 variables variable NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 88 17 has have VBZ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 88 18 not not RB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 88 19 been be VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 88 20 considered consider VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 88 21 in in IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 88 22 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 88 23 modelling modelling NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 88 24 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 89 1 This this DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 89 2 could could MD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 89 3 also also RB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 89 4 serve serve VB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 89 5 as as IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 89 6 a a DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 89 7 future future JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 89 8 direction direction NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 89 9 for for IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 89 10 us -PRON- PRP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 89 11 to to TO cord-256676-b7p92sb1 89 12 model model VB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 89 13 an an DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 89 14 epidemic epidemic NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 89 15 where where WRB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 89 16 these these DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 89 17 factors factor NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 89 18 come come VBP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 89 19 into into IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 89 20 play play NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 89 21 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 90 1 In in IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 90 2 conclusion conclusion NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 90 3 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 90 4 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 90 5 SIR SIR NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 90 6 modelling modelling NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 90 7 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 90 8 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 90 9 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 90 10 in in IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 90 11 Pakistan Pakistan NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 90 12 revealed reveal VBD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 90 13 that that IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 90 14 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 90 15 infection infection NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 90 16 could could MD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 90 17 spread spread VB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 90 18 at at IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 90 19 an an DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 90 20 exponential exponential JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 90 21 rate rate NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 90 22 if if IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 90 23 proper proper JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 90 24 measures measure NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 90 25 are be VBP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 90 26 not not RB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 90 27 taken take VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 90 28 to to TO cord-256676-b7p92sb1 90 29 reduce reduce VB cord-256676-b7p92sb1 90 30 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 90 31 transmission transmission NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 90 32 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 90 33 through through IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 90 34 safe safe JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 90 35 practices practice NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 90 36 such such JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 90 37 social social JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 90 38 distancing distancing NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 90 39 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 90 40 hand hand NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 90 41 - - HYPH cord-256676-b7p92sb1 90 42 washing washing NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 90 43 and and CC cord-256676-b7p92sb1 90 44 large large JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 90 45 scale scale NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 90 46 testing testing NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 90 47 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 90 48 suspected suspect VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 90 49 cases case NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 90 50 in in IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 90 51 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 90 52 region region NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 90 53 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 91 1 Mathematics mathematic NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 91 2 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 91 3 infectious infectious JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 91 4 diseases disease NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 91 5 Estimating estimate VBG cord-256676-b7p92sb1 91 6 clinical clinical JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 91 7 severity severity NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 91 8 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 91 9 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 91 10 from from IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 91 11 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 91 12 transmission transmission NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 91 13 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 91 14 in in IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 91 15 Wuhan Wuhan NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 91 16 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 91 17 China China NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 91 18 Early Early NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 91 19 Transmission Transmission NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 91 20 Dynamics Dynamics NNPS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 91 21 in in IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 91 22 Wuhan Wuhan NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 91 23 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 91 24 China China NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 91 25 , , , cord-256676-b7p92sb1 91 26 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 91 27 Novel Novel NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 91 28 Coronavirus Coronavirus NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 91 29 - - HYPH cord-256676-b7p92sb1 91 30 Infected Infected NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 91 31 Pneumonia Pneumonia NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 91 32 Euro Euro NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 91 33 surveillance surveillance NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 91 34 : : : cord-256676-b7p92sb1 92 1 bulletin bulletin NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 92 2 Europeen Europeen NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 92 3 sur sur FW cord-256676-b7p92sb1 92 4 les les FW cord-256676-b7p92sb1 92 5 maladies malady NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 92 6 transmissibles transmissible NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 92 7 = = SYM cord-256676-b7p92sb1 92 8 European european JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 92 9 communicable communicable JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 92 10 disease disease NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 92 11 bulletin bulletin NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 92 12 Time time NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 92 13 - - HYPH cord-256676-b7p92sb1 92 14 varying vary VBG cord-256676-b7p92sb1 92 15 transmission transmission NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 92 16 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 92 17 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 92 18 Novel Novel NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 92 19 Coronavirus Coronavirus NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 92 20 Pneumonia Pneumonia NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 92 21 in in IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 92 22 China China NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 92 23 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 93 1 bioRxiv biorxiv DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 93 2 Phase phase NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 93 3 - - HYPH cord-256676-b7p92sb1 93 4 adjusted adjust VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 93 5 estimation estimation NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 93 6 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 93 7 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 93 8 number number NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 93 9 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 93 10 Coronavirus Coronavirus NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 93 11 Disease Disease NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 93 12 2019 2019 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 93 13 cases case NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 93 14 in in IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 93 15 Wuhan Wuhan NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 93 16 Properties Properties NNPS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 93 17 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 93 18 AdeABC adeabc NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 93 19 and and CC cord-256676-b7p92sb1 93 20 AdeIJK adeijk NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 93 21 efflux efflux NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 93 22 systems system NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 93 23 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 93 24 Acinetobacter Acinetobacter NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 93 25 baumannii baumannii NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 93 26 compared compare VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 93 27 with with IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 93 28 those those DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 93 29 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 93 30 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 93 31 AcrAB AcrAB NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 93 32 - - HYPH cord-256676-b7p92sb1 93 33 TolC TolC NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 93 34 system system NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 93 35 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 93 36 Escherichia Escherichia NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 93 37 coli coli NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 93 38 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 94 1 Intergovernmental Intergovernmental NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 94 2 Panel Panel NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 94 3 on on IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 94 4 Climate Climate NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 94 5 Change Change NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 94 6 Characteristics characteristic NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 94 7 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 94 8 and and CC cord-256676-b7p92sb1 94 9 important important JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 94 10 lessons lesson NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 94 11 from from IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 94 12 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 94 13 coronavirus coronavirus NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 94 14 disease disease NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 94 15 2019 2019 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 94 16 ( ( -LRB- cord-256676-b7p92sb1 94 17 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 94 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-256676-b7p92sb1 94 19 outbreak outbreak NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 94 20 in in IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 94 21 China China NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 94 22 : : : cord-256676-b7p92sb1 94 23 summary summary NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 94 24 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 94 25 a a DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 94 26 report report NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 94 27 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 94 28 72 72 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 94 29 314 314 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 94 30 cases case NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 94 31 from from IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 94 32 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 94 33 Chinese Chinese NNPS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 94 34 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 95 1 jamanetwork jamanetwork NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 96 1 The the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 96 2 reproductive reproductive JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 96 3 number number NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 96 4 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 96 5 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 96 6 is be VBZ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 96 7 higher high JJR cord-256676-b7p92sb1 96 8 compared compare VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 96 9 to to IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 96 10 SARS SARS NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 96 11 coronavirus coronavirus NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 97 1 Presumed presume VBN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 97 2 asymptomatic asymptomatic JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 97 3 carrier carrier NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 97 4 transmission transmission NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 97 5 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 97 6 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 97 7 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 98 1 jamanetwork jamanetwork NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 98 2 Estimating estimate VBG cord-256676-b7p92sb1 98 3 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 98 4 asymptomatic asymptomatic JJ cord-256676-b7p92sb1 98 5 proportion proportion NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 98 6 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 98 7 coronavirus coronavirus NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 98 8 disease disease NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 98 9 2019 2019 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 98 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-256676-b7p92sb1 99 1 COVID-19 covid-19 LS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 99 2 ) ) -RRB- cord-256676-b7p92sb1 99 3 cases case NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 99 4 on on IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 99 5 board board NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 99 6 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 99 7 Diamond Diamond NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 99 8 Princess Princess NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 99 9 cruise cruise NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 99 10 ship ship NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 99 11 Potential Potential NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 99 12 association association NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 99 13 between between IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 99 14 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 99 15 mortality mortality NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 99 16 and and CC cord-256676-b7p92sb1 99 17 health health NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 99 18 - - HYPH cord-256676-b7p92sb1 99 19 care care NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 99 20 resource resource NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 99 21 availability availability NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 99 22 . . . cord-256676-b7p92sb1 100 1 The the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 100 2 Lancet Lancet NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 100 3 Global Global NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 100 4 Health Health NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 100 5 Characteristics Characteristics NNPS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 100 6 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 100 7 and and CC cord-256676-b7p92sb1 100 8 Important Important NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 100 9 Lessons lesson NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 100 10 from from IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 100 11 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 100 12 Coronavirus Coronavirus NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 100 13 Disease Disease NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 100 14 2019 2019 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 100 15 ( ( -LRB- cord-256676-b7p92sb1 100 16 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 100 17 ) ) -RRB- cord-256676-b7p92sb1 100 18 Outbreak outbreak NN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 100 19 in in IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 100 20 China China NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 100 21 : : : cord-256676-b7p92sb1 100 22 Summary Summary NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 100 23 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 100 24 a a DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 100 25 Report Report NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 100 26 of of IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 100 27 72314 72314 CD cord-256676-b7p92sb1 100 28 Cases case NNS cord-256676-b7p92sb1 100 29 from from IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 100 30 the the DT cord-256676-b7p92sb1 100 31 Chinese Chinese NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 100 32 Center Center NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 100 33 for for IN cord-256676-b7p92sb1 100 34 Disease Disease NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 100 35 Control Control NNP cord-256676-b7p92sb1 100 36 and and CC cord-256676-b7p92sb1 100 37 Prevention Prevention NNP