# ent

id: cord-003932-25dcnext
type: ORG
entity:
  Ontario Agency for Health Protection and Promotion Provincial Infectious Diseases Advisory Committee


id: cord-016404-gyilma0h
type: ORG
entity:
  Health Emergence Detection and Response A New Method for Investigating Nontraditional Biosurveillance Data Studying Behaviors


id: cord-016404-gyilma0h
type: WORK_OF_ART
entity:
  The Newsbulletin Counted Data CUSUM s Integrated Human Animal Disease Surveillance Biological Terrorism in the United States Threat Preparedness and Response Animal Health at the Crossroads Preventing Detecting and Diagnosing Animal Diseases Passive Animal Disease Surveillance


id: cord-022002-6edzmj7n
type: ORG
entity:
  Virginia Cruise Lines International Association National Center for Environmental Health Vessel Sanitation Program Atlanta Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Department of Health and Human Services


id: cord-003507-22ylifqo
type: GGP
entity:
  Wannier S Rae Hoff Nicole A Mukadi Patrick Sinai Cyrus Ackley Sarah Chen Xianyun Gao Daozhou Selo Bernice Mossoko Mathais Okitolonda Wemakoy Emile Richardson Eugene T Rutherford George W Lietman Thomas M Muyembe Tamfum Jean Jacques Rimoin Anne W Porco Travis C title Projections of Ebola


id: cord-017634-zhmnfd1w
type: TAXON
entity:
  Bartonella henselae Borrelia burgdorferi Campylobacter Cryptosporidium Cyclospora Ebola virus Escherichia coli 0157 H7 Ehrlichia Hantaan virus


id: cord-029880-mhmvc0kq
type: DISEASE
entity:
  infected social distancing travel bans and personal isolation and protection strategies Conversely the magnitude of the problem


id: cord-014505-8nc8uep2
type: ORG
entity:
  the Epidemiology of MERS CoV Infection and Guidance for the Public Clinicians and Public Health Authorities


id: cord-004586-i8tacj63
type: PROTEIN
entity:
  nicht mutagenes Haut und Schleimhautantiseptikum mit breiterem Wirkungsspektrum als Chlorhexidin und guter lokaler Verträglichkeit 217 Es


id: cord-004586-i8tacj63
type: DNA
entity:
  beiden Gruppen geschlossene Absaugung vs offene konventionelle Absaugung je 5 VAP Episoden auf Unabhängig von der Methode des Absaugens offen oder geschlossen muss die Spülflüssigkeit steril sein F Wenn durch entsprechende Maßnahmen Flüssigkeits und Sekretrückstände im geschlossenen Absaugsystem vermieden werden ist das System als Bestandteil des Beatmungssystems zu betrachten und kann 7 Tage am Patienten verbleiben 251 252 Studien zu dieser Frage bei Frühgeborenen


id: cord-004586-i8tacj63
type: PROTEIN
entity:
  nicht mit einer erhöhten Infektionsrate assoziiert 344 345 346 Die Position hohe vs tiefe Position des Nabelarterienkatheters wurde hinsichtlich Katheter assoziierter Infektionen nicht


id: cord-004586-i8tacj63
type: PROTEIN
entity:
  nicht F Eine Aussage zur Notwendigkeit eines Pflasterverbandes bei liegendem Nabelkatheter ist nicht


id: cord-004586-i8tacj63
type: PROTEIN
entity:
  Einfluss eines routinemäßigen Wechsels bzw eine Entfernung von Nabelkathetern nach einer definierten Liegedauer untersucht haben Der Systemwechsel erfolgt analog zu dem bei PICCs siehe dort F Ein routinemäßiger Wechsel bzw eine routinemäßige Entfernung von Nabelkathetern


id: cord-004586-i8tacj63
type: PROTEIN
entity:
  ist nicht untersucht F Intermittierende Spülungen können falls notwendig mit steriler 0 9 NaCl Lösung erfolgen Kategorie IB F Eine Empfehlung zum


id: cord-004586-i8tacj63
type: PROTEIN
entity:
  Kind könnte ohne ein Glycopeptid durch eine unwirksame Therapie gefährdet werden Eine signifikant höhere Letalität bei


id: cord-004586-i8tacj63
type: PROTEIN
entity:
  einer Abteilung nicht ein relevanter Anteil der S aureus Methicillin resistent ist 391 Der Selektionsdruck der Glycopeptide könnte durch


id: cord-004586-i8tacj63
type: DNA
entity:
  neonatal intensive care unit Enterobacter cloacae and Pseudomonas aeruginosa polymicrobial bloodstream infections


id: cord-004586-i8tacj63
type: ORG
entity:
  FDA Public Health Notice Potential Hypersensitivity Reactions To Chlorhexidine Impregnated Medical Devices Effect


id: cord-004586-i8tacj63
type: CHEMICAL
entity:
  vollendete Wochen 259 Tage 1 Je nach Geburtsgewicht GG werden des Weiteren unterschieden 1 2500g untergewichtige Neugeborene


id: cord-004586-i8tacj63
type: CHEMICAL
entity:
  wurden sind Einwegartikel wie heute auch allgemein üblich den Mehrwegsystemen vorzuziehen 316 317 318 319


id: cord-004586-i8tacj63
type: CHEMICAL
entity:
  eine Durchstichmembran mit einer geeigneten sterilen Nadel Spritze nach vorheriger alkoholischer Wischdesinfektion der


id: cord-004586-i8tacj63
type: CHEMICAL
entity:
  werden kann 312 328 Wegen der Begünstigung einer bakteriellen oder mykotischen Besiedlung des Systems sollten keine glukosehaltigen


id: cord-004586-i8tacj63
type: CHEMICAL
entity:
  Nabelstumpfdesinfektion mit Octenidin 0 1 unter Beachtung der Einwirkzeit von mind 1 min Kategorie IB F Anlage


id: cord-019057-3j2fl358
type: PROTEIN
entity:
  H1n1 Influenza Pandemic P 196 148 Stephen Holland Public Health Ethics Polity Press 2007 Pp 51 55 149 pursuance


id: cord-019057-3j2fl358
type: LAW
entity:
  Universal Declaration of Human Rights and the 1966 International Covenant on Economic Social and Cultural Rights


id: cord-019057-3j2fl358
type: ORG
entity:
  Individual Participant Data Influenza Virus Resistance to Neuraminidase Inhibitors Containing Pandemic Influenza


id: cord-019057-3j2fl358
type: GPE
entity:
  the United States Priorities for Intervention The Signature Features of Influenza Pandemics Implications for Policy


id: cord-019057-3j2fl358
type: FAC
entity:
  Africa Developing a Global Human Rights Framework for Tuberculosis Control and Prevention Africa A Practical Guide for Global Health Workers Public Ethics of Care a General Public Ethics


id: cord-017731-xzfo5jjq
type: GGP
entity:
  Clostridium botulinum mainly type E Tavakoli and Imani Fooladi 2011 The processing is insufficient to kill the


id: cord-285760-y37ji92k
type: PROTEIN
entity:
  nucleocapsid protein NP V protein V phosphoprotein P matrix M protein fusion F protein small hydrophobic SH protein hemagglutininneuraminidase HN protein


id: cord-285760-y37ji92k
type: GPE
entity:
  the Russian Federation Routine Immunization Regional and Country Profiles Russian Federation Summary of Routine Immunization and Vaccine Preventable Diseases Surveillance Data


id: cord-285760-y37ji92k
type: ORG
entity:
  Routine Immunization Regional and Country Profiles Turkey Summary of Routine Immunization and Vaccine Preventable Diseases Surveillance Data


id: cord-279681-ezu1j0tc
type: ORG
entity:
  China Programme in Emerging Infections Diseases Duke NUS Medical School SingHealth Duke NUS Global Health Institute


id: cord-023767-rcv4pl0d
type: PROTEIN
entity:
  chemokines e g interleukm IL 8 monocyte chemotactic protein type 1 MCP 1 1 granulocyte macrophage cell stimulating factor GM CSF


id: cord-023767-rcv4pl0d
type: GGP
entity:
  adenosine diphosphate ribosylation of a guanosine triphosphate binding regulatory subunit of adenylate cy


id: cord-021571-7kbq0v9w
type: DNA
entity:
  HICPACISHENAPICIIDSA Hand Hygiene Task Force Society for Health Care Epidemiology of Association for Professionals in Infection Control Infectious Diseases Society of America Pertussis adults


id: cord-021571-7kbq0v9w
type: ORG
entity:
  the HICPACISHENAPICIIDSA Hand Hygiene Task Force Society for Health Care Epidemiology of Association for Professionals in Infection Control Infectious Diseases Society of America Pertussis


id: cord-021571-7kbq0v9w
type: ORG
entity:
  Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Division of Health Care Quality Promotion National Nosocomial Infections Surveillance


id: cord-021571-7kbq0v9w
type: WORK_OF_ART
entity:
  Human milk Report of the Committee on Infectious Diseases American Academy of Pediatrics and American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists Care


id: cord-266480-u8o4eitu
type: PERSON
entity:
  Declaration of Interests Declaration of Interests Declaration of Interests Declaration of Interests P C S


id: cord-266480-u8o4eitu
type: ORG
entity:
  the Society for Public Health Education Statistical Inference for Partially Observed Markov Processes


id: cord-026416-h0w5jsyd
type: ORG
entity:
  The Routledge Handbook of Urban Resilience Routledge International Handbooks Centre of Disease Control and Prevention CDC webpage Division of Scientific Education and Professional Development DSEPD City


id: cord-026416-h0w5jsyd
type: ORG
entity:
  Front Planning for Community Resilience A Handbook for Reducing Vulnerability to Disasters Hyogo Framework for Action and Urban Disaster Resilience Community Environment


id: cord-022147-istz1iql
type: CHEMICAL
entity:
  bromophenol blue 3 0 4 6 bromocresol green 4 0 5 6 methyl red 4 4 6 0 bromocresol purple 5 0 6 6 bromothymol blue 6 0 7 6 phenol


id: cord-104128-0gyk9cwx
type: ORG
entity:
  United Nations Conference on Trade and Development Global Environmental Outlook GEO 6 United Nations Environment Programme Radical


id: cord-266526-8csl9md0
type: DNA
entity:
  viral pathogens 11 Medical and Health Sciences 1117 728 Public Health and Health Services Building Information Modeling


id: cord-286565-bmcsyfz9
type: WORK_OF_ART
entity:
  A Survey of Attitudes Anxiety Status and Protective Behaviors of the University Students During the COVID 19 Outbreak


id: cord-286565-bmcsyfz9
type: ORG
entity:
  Mental Health Taking Care of Ourselves During Infectious Disease Outbreaks American Psychiatry Association Immediate Psychological Responses


id: cord-286565-bmcsyfz9
type: LAW
entity:
  the COVID 19 Pandemic Stressful A Study on Immediate Mental Health Status and Psychoneuroimmunity Prevention Measures


id: cord-322541-yzum868k
type: ORG
entity:
  the International Health Regulations Pandemic Infl uenza Preparedness Framework Convention on Biological Diversity


id: cord-279255-v861kk0i
type: DISEASE
entity:
  gastrointestinal tract abdominal cavity peritonitis respiratory tract and central nervous system 128 Canines


id: cord-312319-daiikgth
type: ORG
entity:
  the Netherlands Food and Consumer Product Safety Authority RIVM National Institute for Public Health


id: cord-321098-j3glby40
type: GGP
entity:
  EEI6 p 0 05 shows that due to this shut down poor people will be severely affected the price of the basic products


id: cord-321098-j3glby40
type: GGP
entity:
  SEI2 4 0 336 0 493 and SEI10 0 418 The PC3 Third showed 7 196 of the variance and was moderate positively loaded for immediate emerging issues IEI1 5 0 546 0 665 The PC4 Four indicated 6 792 of the variance and was loaded with a significant level of strong positive loadings for immediate


id: cord-321098-j3glby40
type: ORG
entity:
  Mental Health Status Healthcare System Governance and Political Perspective Socio Economic Aspects and Emerging Issues


id: cord-291382-vo9bemg1
type: LAW
entity:
  the Sverdlovsk Anthrax Outbreak of 1979 Federation of American Scientists Public Interest Public Health and Urban Development


id: cord-320454-dhfl92et
type: ORG
entity:
  the National Nosocomial Infections Surveillance System NNIS of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention CDC USA


id: cord-324230-nu0pn2q8
type: WORK_OF_ART
entity:
  Hybrid Model of Artificial Neural Networks Particle Swarm Optimization Comparative Analysis of Single


id: cord-276758-k2imddzr
type: DNA
entity:
  ucNavMenu_TSMenuTargetType54 ucNavMenu_TSMenuID56 id51613 Streptococcus salivarius meningitis following myelography Streptococcal meningitis complicating diagnostic myelography three cases and review Streptococcal meningitis after myelography Iatrogenic meningitis an increasing role for resistant viridans streptococci Case


id: cord-276758-k2imddzr
type: GGP
entity:
  I B 3 c Airborne Transmission Airborne transmission occurs by dissemination of either airborne droplet


id: cord-276758-k2imddzr
type: ORG
entity:
  the Guidelines for Prevention of Transmission of Tuberculosis in Hospitals and Other Health Care Settings


id: cord-276758-k2imddzr
type: ORG
entity:
  The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention s National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health


id: cord-276758-k2imddzr
type: ORG
entity:
  Hygiene Task Force Society for Healthcare Epidemiology of America Association for Professionals in Infection Control Infectious Diseases Society of America Guideline


id: cord-276758-k2imddzr
type: ORG
entity:
  Society for Healthcare Epidemiology of America and Infectious Diseases Society of America Joint Committee on the Prevention of Antimicrobial Resistance


id: cord-276758-k2imddzr
type: DISEASE
entity:
  myocardial infarction congestive heart failure overdose stroke gastrointestinal bleeding renal failure hepatic failure multiorgan system failure


id: cord-345727-bcxkycjh
type: DISEASE
entity:
  human adenovirus coronavirus parainfluenza virus 1 2 3 rhinovirus A B C respiratory syncytial virus A B bocavirus 1 2 3 4


id: cord-334108-4ey725dv
type: DISEASE
entity:
  herpes simplex virus type 1 suspended in saliva on the skin of tomatoes and the upper surface of lettuce Although storage times of only 1 h


id: cord-298372-4pw1y404
type: ORG
entity:
  ScienceDirect PhD Institut de Recherche Biomedicale des Armees Departement de Microbiologie et Maladies Infectieuses Unite de Bacteriologie 91220


id: cord-354763-odzrco6q
type: GGP
entity:
  T c b 0 2b a 0 Still more models could be considered However we report below that the final epidemic size


id: cord-348840-s8wjg4ar
type: ORG
entity:
  Healthcare Infection Control Practices Advisory Committee s Guidelines for Environmental Infection Control


# bib

id: cord-001219-517gka4h
author: Timpka, Toomas
date: 2014-03-07
txt: ./txt/cord-001219-517gka4h.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-001219-517gka4h.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3946657/
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0091060
summary:
  We administered a cross-sectional telephone survey to a representative sample (n = 443) of the Swedish adult population to examine whether self-reported intentions to improve personal hygiene and increase social distancing during influenza outbreaks could be explained by trust in official information, self-reported health (SF-8), sociodemographic factors, and determinants postulated in protection motivation theory, namely threat appraisal and coping appraisal. A hypothetical explanatory model was constructed to inform the analysis of the main research question; i.e. to what extent selfreported intentions to perform protective behaviors during influenza outbreaks can be explained by perceptions of threat and the ability to cope as outlined in the PMT, self-assessments of health status, trust in official information, and sociodemiographic factors.

title:
  Intentions to Perform Non-Pharmaceutical Protective Behaviors during Influenza Outbreaks in Sweden: A Cross-Sectional Study following a Mass Vaccination Campaign

abstract:
  Failure to incorporate the beliefs and attitudes of the public into theoretical models of preparedness has been identified as a weakness in strategies to mitigate infectious disease outbreaks. We administered a cross-sectional telephone survey to a representative sample (n = 443) of the Swedish adult population to examine whether self-reported intentions to improve personal hygiene and increase social distancing during influenza outbreaks could be explained by trust in official information, self-reported health (SF-8), sociodemographic factors, and determinants postulated in protection motivation theory, namely threat appraisal and coping appraisal. The interviewees were asked to make their appraisals for two scenarios: a) an influenza with low case fatality and mild lifestyle impact; b) severe influenza with high case fatality and serious disturbances of societal functions. Every second respondent (50.0%) reported high trust in official information about influenza. The proportion that reported intentions to take deliberate actions to improve personal hygiene during outbreaks ranged between 45–85%, while less than 25% said that they intended to increase social distancing. Multiple logistic regression models with coping appraisal as the explanatory factor most frequently contributing to the explanation of the variance in intentions showed strong discriminatory performance for staying home while not ill (mild outbreaks: Area under the curve [AUC] 0.85 (95% confidence interval 0.82;0.89), severe outbreaks AUC 0.82 (95% CI 0.77;0.85)) and acceptable performance with regard to avoiding public transportation (AUC 0.78 (0.74;0.82), AUC 0.77 (0.72;0.82)), using handwash products (AUC 0.70 (0.65;0.75), AUC 0.76 (0.71;0.80)), and frequently washing hands (AUC 0.71 (0.66;0.76), AUC 0.75 (0.71;0.80)). We conclude that coping appraisal was the explanatory factor most frequently included in statistical models explaining self-reported intentions to carry out non-pharmaceutical health actions in the Swedish outlined context, and that variations in threat appraisal played a smaller role in these models despite scientific uncertainties surrounding a recent mass vaccination campaign.


id: cord-003507-22ylifqo
author: Kelly, J. Daniel
date: 2019-03-07
txt: ./txt/cord-003507-22ylifqo.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-003507-22ylifqo.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6405095/
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0213190
summary:
  As of May 27, 2018, 6 suspected, 13 probable and 35 confirmed cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) had been reported in Équateur Province, Democratic Republic of Congo. We modeled Ebola virus transmission using a stochastic branching process model that included reproduction numbers from past Ebola outbreaks and a particle filtering method to generate a probabilistic projection of the outbreak size and duration conditioned on its reported trajectory to date; modeled using high (62%), low (44%), and zero (0%) estimates of vaccination coverage (after deployment). With the stochastic model, using high, low, and zero estimates of vaccination coverage, the median outbreak sizes for probable and confirmed cases were 82 cases (95% prediction interval [PI]: 55, 156), 104 cases (95% PI: 58, 271), and 213 cases (95% PI: 64, 1450), respectively. We modeled Ebola virus transmission using a stochastic branching process model, parameterized by transmission rates estimated from the dynamics of prior EVD outbreaks, and conditioned on agreement with reported case counts from the 2018 EVD outbreak to date.

title:
  Projections of Ebola outbreak size and duration with and without vaccine use in Équateur, Democratic Republic of Congo, as of May 27, 2018

abstract:
  As of May 27, 2018, 6 suspected, 13 probable and 35 confirmed cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) had been reported in Équateur Province, Democratic Republic of Congo. We used reported case counts and time series from prior outbreaks to estimate the total outbreak size and duration with and without vaccine use. We modeled Ebola virus transmission using a stochastic branching process model that included reproduction numbers from past Ebola outbreaks and a particle filtering method to generate a probabilistic projection of the outbreak size and duration conditioned on its reported trajectory to date; modeled using high (62%), low (44%), and zero (0%) estimates of vaccination coverage (after deployment). Additionally, we used the time series for 18 prior Ebola outbreaks from 1976 to 2016 to parameterize the Thiel-Sen regression model predicting the outbreak size from the number of observed cases from April 4 to May 27. We used these techniques on probable and confirmed case counts with and without inclusion of suspected cases. Probabilistic projections were scored against the actual outbreak size of 54 EVD cases, using a log-likelihood score. With the stochastic model, using high, low, and zero estimates of vaccination coverage, the median outbreak sizes for probable and confirmed cases were 82 cases (95% prediction interval [PI]: 55, 156), 104 cases (95% PI: 58, 271), and 213 cases (95% PI: 64, 1450), respectively. With the Thiel-Sen regression model, the median outbreak size was estimated to be 65.0 probable and confirmed cases (95% PI: 48.8, 119.7). Among our three mathematical models, the stochastic model with suspected cases and high vaccine coverage predicted total outbreak sizes closest to the true outcome. Relatively simple mathematical models updated in real time may inform outbreak response teams with projections of total outbreak size and duration.


id: cord-003932-25dcnext
title: Prevention of respiratory outbreaks in the rehabilitation setting
author: Corpus, Carla
date: 2019-10-09
txt: ./txt/cord-003932-25dcnext.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-003932-25dcnext.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6797241/
doi: 10.1136/bmjoq-2019-000663
summary:
  IPAC strategies in place prior to the QI study included: mandatory core competency training for all clinical staff on hire and renewal every 2 years; a healthy workplace policy that required healthcare workers to Open access stay home if they were ill; droplet and contact precautions for patients with respiratory symptoms including patient placement (single room and cohorting); routine daily and terminal environmental cleaning of horizontal and high touch surfaces; monthly hand hygiene directly observed audits (compliance rate ~88%-92%); multiplex RV testing via polymerase chain reaction (turnaround time ~24 hours); antiviral treatment and prophylaxis for confirmed cases of influenza and exposed roommates and annual influenza vaccination campaign with uptake of 76% for staff and ~65% for patients.

abstract:
  BACKGROUND: Respiratory viral (RV) outbreaks in rehabilitation facilities can jeopardise patient safety, interfere with patient rehabilitation goals and cause unit closures that impede patient flow in referring facilities. PROBLEM: Despite education about infection prevention practices, frequent RV outbreaks were declared each year at our rehabilitation facility. METHODS: Before and after study design. The primary outcome was the number of bed closure days due to outbreak per overall bed days. Process measures included delays in initiation of transmission-based precautions, RV testing and reporting of staff to occupational health and safety (OHS). Balancing measures included the number of isolation days and staff missed work hours. INTERVENTIONS: Based on comprehensive analysis of prior outbreaks, the following changes were implemented: (1) clear criteria for initiation of transmission-based precautions, (2) communication to visitors to avoid visitation if infectious symptoms were present, (3) exemption of staff absences if documented due to infectious illness, (4) development of an electronic programme providing guidance to staff about whether they should be excluded from work due to infectious illness. RESULTS: The number of bed closure days due to outbreak per overall bed days dropped from 2.8% to 0.5% during the intervention season and sustained at 0.6% during the postintervention season (p<0.001). There were fewer delays in initiation of droplet and contact precautions (28.8% to 15.5%, p=0.005) and collection of RV testing (42.9% to 20.3%, p<0.001), better reporting to OHS (9 vs 28.8 reports per 100 employees; p<0.001) and fewer isolation days (7.8% vs 7.3%; p=0.02) without a significant increase in missed work hours per 100 hours worked (4.0 vs 3.9; p=0.12). CONCLUSION: This Quality Improvement study highlights the process changes that can prevent respiratory outbreaks in the rehabilitation setting.


id: cord-004006-tfp2idq2
author: Hale, Alison C.
date: 2019-11-28
txt: ./txt/cord-004006-tfp2idq2.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-004006-tfp2idq2.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6882870/
doi: 10.1038/s41598-019-53352-6
summary:
  In this paper we describe the first real-time syndromic surveillance system that conducts integrated spatio-temporal analysis of data from a national network of veterinary premises for the early detection of disease outbreaks in small animals. Here we propose a real-time syndromic surveillance system that uses a spatio-temporal model in conjunction with Bayesian inference for the early detection of health-event outbreaks. This is, to our knowledge, the first surveillance system that conducts integrated spatio-temporal analysis of data from a national network of veterinary practices so as to enable real-time detection of spatially and temporally localised changes in reporting patterns across the network. We use the actual SAVSNET total consultations for dogs during February 2016, together with their associated explanatory variables, to simulate a step increase in the proportion of GI disease cases affecting one or more premises from a given day t , 0 corresponding to 15 February 2016, by augmenting Eq.

title:
  A real-time spatio-temporal syndromic surveillance system with application to small companion animals

abstract:
  Lack of disease surveillance in small companion animals worldwide has contributed to a deficit in our ability to detect and respond to outbreaks. In this paper we describe the first real-time syndromic surveillance system that conducts integrated spatio-temporal analysis of data from a national network of veterinary premises for the early detection of disease outbreaks in small animals. We illustrate the system’s performance using data relating to gastrointestinal disease in dogs and cats. The data consist of approximately one million electronic health records for dogs and cats, collected from 458 UK veterinary premises between March 2014 and 2016. For this illustration, the system predicts the relative reporting rate of gastrointestinal disease amongst all presentations, and updates its predictions as new data accrue. The system was able to detect simulated outbreaks of varying spatial geometry, extent and severity. The system is flexible: it generates outcomes that are easily interpretable; the user can set their own outbreak detection thresholds. The system provides the foundation for prompt detection and control of health threats in companion animals.


id: cord-004586-i8tacj63
author: nan
date: 2007-10-05
txt: ./txt/cord-004586-i8tacj63.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-004586-i8tacj63.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7080031/
doi: 10.1007/s00103-007-0337-0
abstract: nan
summary:
  F Die Reinigung der Innenseite des belegten Inkubators kann mit Wasser von Trinkwasserqualität erfolgen (siehe oben), wobei für jeden Inkubator (patientenbezogen) ein frisches, keimarmes Tuch verwendet werden muss (Kategorie IB). Transmission of community-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus from breast milk in the neonatal intensive care unit Outbreak of nosocomial sepsis and pneumonia in a newborn intensive care unit by multiresistant extended-spectrum beta-lactamase-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae: high impact on mortality Nosocomial Klebsiella pneumoniae infection: clinical and hygienic measures in a neonatal intensive care unit Nosocomial outbreak of gentamicin-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae in a neonatal intensive care unit controlled by a change in antibiotic policy Coronavirus-related nosocomial viral respiratory infections in a neonatal and paediatric intensive care unit: a prospective study Eradication of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus from a neonatal intensive care unit by active surveillance and aggressive infection control measures Clinical and molecular biological analysis of a nosocomial outbreak of vancomycin-resistant enterococci in a neonatal intensive care unit

title:
  Empfehlung zur Prävention nosokomialer Infektionen bei neonatologischen Intensivpflegepatienten mit einem Geburtsgewicht unter 1500 g: Mitteilung der Kommission für Krankenhaushygiene und Infektionsprävention beim Robert Koch-Institut


id: cord-006035-9y504uyf
title: Correspondence
author: Vashishtha, Vipin M.
date: 2015-01-20
txt: ./txt/cord-006035-9y504uyf.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-006035-9y504uyf.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7097179/
doi: 10.1007/s13312-014-0534-5
abstract: nan
summary:
  In fact, the Government of India is short of technical advice on many issues pertaining to outbreak investigations and usually depends on multiple agencies -some of their own and some from outsides -for solving the mystery and instituting preventive measures, which ultimately do not go beyond recommending mass vaccination against Japanese encephalitis in affected areas [2] . For example, in an outbreak of AES amongst children in Andhra Pradesh, India in 2003, the virology group concluded it to be an outbreak of acute encephalitis caused by Chandipura virus [4] and the neurology team claimed the outbreak was caused by a neurovascular stroke called as "epidemic brain attack", not by any encephalitis [5] . Since the case fatality rate in children with severe dengue infection is high, pediatricians have a very important role to play to reduce the disease burden, and the minimum we can do is to update the health care personnel and community at various forums, about the various atypical manifestations of dengue for prompt recognition and management.


id: cord-011129-btaxvmsr
title: Viral genomics in Ebola virus research
author: Di Paola, Nicholas
date: 2020-05-04
txt: ./txt/cord-011129-btaxvmsr.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-011129-btaxvmsr.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7223634/
doi: 10.1038/s41579-020-0354-7
summary:
  Here, we review how recent advances in genomic technologies have shaped past and current responses to outbreaks of Ebola virus disease (EVD), including insights into filovirus diversity and evolution. After this identification, considerations other than sequencing speed (for example, sequencing accuracy and processivity) become paramount in determining virus transmission networks and in detecting changes in the viral genome (between cases in the current outbreak and between the current and previous outbreaks) that could subvert MCMs. However, whereas unbiased sequencing approaches using high fidelity platforms can lead to the discovery of co-infections and reveal important clinical considerations during the treatment of patients near the point of need, targeted methods of pathogen characterization using the portable sequencing platforms iSeq 100 and MiSeq (which use bait-enrichment techniques) and MinION (which uses amplicon sequencing) can still provide useful genomic data albeit with a lower sequencing output (that is, a lower number of reads) than unbiased sequencing.

abstract:
  Filoviruses such as Ebola virus continue to pose a substantial health risk to humans. Advances in the sequencing and functional characterization of both pathogen and host genomes have provided a wealth of knowledge to clinicians, epidemiologists and public health responders during outbreaks of high-consequence viral disease. Here, we describe how genomics has been historically used to investigate Ebola virus disease outbreaks and how new technologies allow for rapid, large-scale data generation at the point of care. We highlight how genomics extends beyond consensus-level sequencing of the virus to include intra-host viral transcriptomics and the characterization of host responses in acute and persistently infected patients. Similar genomics techniques can also be applied to the characterization of non-human primate animal models and to known natural reservoirs of filoviruses, and metagenomic sequencing can be the key to the discovery of novel filoviruses. Finally, we outline the importance of reverse genetics systems that can swiftly characterize filoviruses as soon as their genome sequences are available.


id: cord-014505-8nc8uep2
title: Evaluation of REDCap as a Tool for Outbreak Data Management, Illinois, 2013-2014
author: Vahora, Jennifer
date: 2015-02-26
txt: ./txt/cord-014505-8nc8uep2.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-014505-8nc8uep2.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4512356/
doi: 10.5210/ojphi.v7i1.5836
abstract: nan
summary:
  Public health agencies have begun to use REDCap to manage disease outbreak data. We conducted a retrospective review of four different types of outbreaks that recently occurred in Illinois: a restaurant-associated foodborne illness outbreak; the introduction of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS CoV) to the United States; a large rash outbreak; and a healthcare-associated cluster of New Delhi metallobeta-lactamase (NDM). For all four types of outbreaks, REDCap would have facilitated self-reporting of symptoms and exposures through the design and administration of online surveys to cases and contacts. REDCap''s document upload functionality would have facilitated storage and access of lab reports for foodborne illness, MERS CoV, and NDM outbreaks. REDCap also would allow public health responders to perform long-term monitoring of symptoms and disease incidence in NDM outbreaks. In Illinois, public health agencies currently lack a secure, HIPAA-compliant outbreak management system that facilitates survey development, online data entry, data management tools such as automated exports, contact tracing, and coordination across jurisdictions.


id: cord-016109-vbzy11hc
title: Outbreaks of Infection in the ICU: What’s up at the Beginning of the Twenty-First Century?
author: Damjanovic, V.
date: 2011-08-10
txt: ./txt/cord-016109-vbzy11hc.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-016109-vbzy11hc.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7120292/
doi: 10.1007/978-88-470-1601-9_12
summary:
  We used the same framework as in the second edition of this book; however, outbreaks were not presented separately per ICU type but according to causative organisms, in the following order: methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), vancomycin-resistant enterococci (VRE), aerobic Gramnegative bacilli (AGNB), Pseudomonas spp., Acinetobacter spp. A paper from Italy published in 2002 reported a unique experience of controlling a MRSA outbreak of 8 months'' duration in a medical/surgical AICU in 1998 using enterally administered vancomycin in mechanically ventilated patients [5] . In 2005, a report from Italy described an outbreak of VRE colonisation and infection in an ICU that lasted 16 months (2001-2002) [12] . A report from The Netherlands published in 2001 described an outbreak of infections with a multi-drug-resistant Klebsiella strain [19] associated with contaminated roll boards in operating rooms.

abstract:
  Surveillance cultures are the only cultures that allow the distinction between secondary endogenous and exogenous infections. These types of infection are the two known to cause outbreaks. Secondary endogenous infections can be controlled by enterally administered antimicrobials and should be integrated into the routine infection control measures. Exogenous infections can be controlled by topically applied antimicrobials and hygiene.


id: cord-016404-gyilma0h
author: Shaffer, Loren
date: 2007
txt: ./txt/cord-016404-gyilma0h.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-016404-gyilma0h.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7120669/
doi: 10.1007/978-3-540-72608-1_1
summary:
  Most of the current disease surveillance systems used for animal populations are considered inadequate for detecting outbreaks of emerging disease, potential acts of bioterrorism, or outbreaks resulting from pathogens for which the system was not specifically designed for in a timely manner [16] , [20] , [21] , [24] . Although laboratory analyses are not as frequently a part of the veterinary care of pet animals compared to the medical care of humans [31] , we hypothesize that the consistency of test orders over time is such that increases in cases of disease will result in detectable increases in the number of test orders submitted by veterinarians that can be identified using prospective analysis. IDEXX transferred once daily to a server located at the Real-time Outbreak and Disease Surveillance (RODS) Laboratory (University of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania), via secure file transfer protocol, an automatically generated text file containing records of laboratory orders for specimens received within the previous 24-hour period.

title:
  Early Outbreak Detection Using an Automated Data Feed of Test Orders from a Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory

abstract:
  Disease surveillance in animals remains inadequate to detect outbreaks resulting from novel pathogens and potential bioweapons. Mostly relying on confirmed diagnoses, another shortcoming of these systems is their ability to detect outbreaks in a timely manner. We investigated the feasibility of using veterinary laboratory test orders in a prospective system to detect outbreaks of disease earlier compared to traditional reporting methods. IDEXX Laboratories, Inc. automatically transferred daily records of laboratory test orders submitted from veterinary providers in Ohio via a secure file transfer protocol. Test products were classified to appropriate syndromic category using their unique identifying number. Counts of each category by county were analyzed to identify unexpected increases using a cumulative sums method. The results indicated that disease events can be detected through the prospective analysis of laboratory test orders and may provide indications of similar disease events in humans before traditional disease reporting.


id: cord-016819-6r4qf63o
title: A New Method of Differentiation Between a Biological Attack and Other Epidemics
author: Radosavljevic, Vladan
date: 2012-08-31
txt: ./txt/cord-016819-6r4qf63o.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-016819-6r4qf63o.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7121225/
doi: 10.1007/978-94-007-5273-3_3
summary:
  The system was applied to four UEEs: (1) an intentional attack by a deliberate use of a biological agent (Amerithrax), (2) a spontaneous outbreak of a new or re-emerging disease ("swine flu"), (3) a spontaneous outbreak by an accidental release of a pathogen (Sverdlovsk anthrax), and (4) a spontaneous natural outbreak of a known endemic disease that may mimic bioterrorism or biowarfare (Kosovo tularemia). This UEE analysis is a subtle and detailed differentiation through assessment of BA feasibility in comparison with other outbreak scenarios, in particular: (1) a spontaneous outbreak of a new or re-emerging disease (NR) (such as "swine fl u"), (2) a spontaneous outbreak by an accidental release of a pathogen (AR) (such as the Sverdlovsk anthrax outbreak), and (3) a spontaneous natural outbreak of a known endemic disease that may mimic bioterrorism or biowarfare (NE) (such as the Kosovo tularemia outbreak).

abstract:
  The main obstacle in identifying a biological attack (BA), while preventing false alarms, epidemics of panic and unnecessary expenditures is the insufficient data on which to rely. Тhis new method of outbreak analysis is based on our original model of bioterrorism risk assessment. The intention was to develop a model of quick and accurate evaluation of an unusual epidemiologic event (UEE) that would save time, money, human and material resources and reduce confusion and panic. This UEE analysis is a subtle and detailed differentiation through assessment of BA feasibility in comparison with three other types of outbreak scenarios. There are two types of differences between these four scenarios: qualitative and quantitative. Qualitative and quantitative differences are defined with 23 and 10 indicators, respectively. Both types of indicators can have three different values: N/A, 0 or 1. We have carried out a feasibility analysis for subtle and detailed differentiation among four outbreak scenarios. As a tool for feasibility analysis we have introduced a “system of elimination”. System elimination is applied if one component contains all indicators scored with 0 or as N/A – the related scenario is then eliminated from further consideration. The system was applied to four UEEs: (1) an intentional attack by a deliberate use of a biological agent (Amerithrax), (2) a spontaneous outbreak of a new or re-emerging disease (“swine flu”), (3) a spontaneous outbreak by an accidental release of a pathogen (Sverdlovsk anthrax), and (4) a spontaneous natural outbreak of a known endemic disease that may mimic bioterrorism or biowarfare (Kosovo tularemia). It was found that “agent” was the most important and the most informative UEE component of the new scoring system. This system might be helpful in the analysis of unusual epidemic events and a quick differentiation between biological attacks and other epidemics.


id: cord-017634-zhmnfd1w
title: Infectious Disease Epidemiology
author: Straif-Bourgeois, Susanne
date: 2005
txt: ./txt/cord-017634-zhmnfd1w.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-017634-zhmnfd1w.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7122244/
doi: 10.1007/978-3-540-26577-1_34
summary:
  Use of additional clinical, epidemiological and laboratory data may enable a physician to diagnose a disease even though the formal surveillance case definition may not be met. Another way to detect an increase of cases is if the surveillance system of reportable infectious diseases reveals an unusually high number of people with the same diagnosis over a certain time period at different health care facilities. On the other hand, however, there should be no time delay in starting an investigation if there is an opportunity to prevent more cases or the potential to identify a system failure which can be caused, for example, by poor food preparation in a restaurant or poor infection control practices in a hospital or to prevent future outbreaks by acquiring more knowledge of the epidemiology of the agent involved. In developing countries, surveys are often necessary to evaluate health problems since data collected routinely (disease surveillance, hospital records, case registers) are often incomplete and of poor quality.

abstract:
  The following chapter intends to give the reader an overview of the current field of applied infectious disease epidemiology. Prevention of disease by breaking the chain of transmission has traditionally been the main purpose of infectious disease epidemiology. While this goal remains the same, the picture of infectious diseases is changing. New pathogens are identified and already known disease agents are changing their behavior. The world population is aging; more people develop underlying disease conditions and are therefore more susceptible to certain infectious diseases or have long term sequelae after being infected.


id: cord-017731-xzfo5jjq
title: Foodborne Disease in the Middle East
author: Todd, Ewen C. D.
date: 2016-11-25
txt: ./txt/cord-017731-xzfo5jjq.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-017731-xzfo5jjq.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7122377/
doi: 10.1007/978-3-319-48920-9_17
summary:
  Food safety is a concern worldwide and according to the World Health Organization, developing countries are probably more at risk of foodborne illness because many of these, including those in the Middle East, have limited disease surveillance and prevention and control strategies. Like many other parts of the developing world, foodborne disease surveillance is limited and outbreaks are most often reported through the Press but with insufficient detail to determine the etiological agents and the factors contributing to the outbreaks, leading to speculation to the cause by those interested or responsible for food prevention and control. Thus, the main foodborne disease issues are with homemade, restaurant and street food, where isolated claims of illness are followed up by inspections and possible punitive action by public health agencies responsible for food safety.

abstract:
  Food safety is a concern worldwide and according to the World Health Organization, developing countries are probably more at risk of foodborne illness because many of these, including those in the Middle East, have limited disease surveillance and prevention and control strategies. Specifically, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has the third highest estimated burden of foodborne diseases per population, after the African and South-East Asia regions. However, it is difficult to determine what the burden is since little is published in peer-reviewed journals or government reports for public access. This chapter reviews 16 autonomous nations, namely, Afghanistan, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Palestine, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia (KSA), Syrian Arab Republic (Syria), United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Yemen. Countries range in size from Bahrain with 1.8 million inhabitants to Pakistan with a population of 184 million. Agriculture and local food production is much influenced by water availability for irrigation. Water shortages are most severe in the Gulf countries which rely on aquifers, desalination, and recycled waste water for most of their water supplies. This means that most food is imported which is expensive if not subsidized through petrodollars. This impacts food security which is a particular concern in countries under conflict, particularly, Syria, Yemen and Iraq. Gastrointestinal infections are frequent in this region from Salmonella Typhi and other Salmonella spp., Shigella spp., Campylobacter jejuni and C. coli, rotavirus, hepatitis A virus, parasites, and more rarely from Aeromonas, Yersinia enterocolitica, Brucella spp., and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV). Reports indicate that children are the most susceptible and that many isolates are multidrug resistant. Chemical contamination of water supplies and crops are probably more of a concern than published reports indicate, because of widespread indiscriminate use of fertilizers, antibiotics, and pesticides, coupled with increased industrial pollution affecting the water supplies. Like many other parts of the developing world, foodborne disease surveillance is limited and outbreaks are most often reported through the Press but with insufficient detail to determine the etiological agents and the factors contributing to the outbreaks, leading to speculation to the cause by those interested or responsible for food prevention and control. However, there are some well investigated outbreaks in the region that have those details, and reveal where the shortcomings of both the establishments and the inspection systems have been. Where the causative agents are known, the kinds of pathogens are generally similar to those found in the West, e.g., Salmonella, but many outbreaks seem to have short incubation periods that point to a toxin of some kind of chemical or biological origin, but these are almost never identified. Because of sectarian warfare, residents and refugees have been given food that has made them sick and solders? have been deliberately poisoned. Research has been focused on microbial contamination of locally-sold foodstuffs and manager and employee knowledge of food safety and hygienic conditions in food preparation establishments. An innovative pilot project in Qatar is to use seawater and sunlight for raising crops through the Sahara Forest Project. All countries have some kind of food establishment inspection system, but they tend to be punitive if faults are found in management or employees on the premises rather than being used for their education for improving food safety. Restaurants may be closed down and owners and employees fined for often unspecified infringements. However, some food control agents are moving towards employee training through seminars and courses before problems occur, which is a good disease prevention strategy. Unfortunately, many of the food handlers are from Asian countries with languages other than Arabic and English, which makes effective food safety communication and training difficult. Tourists visiting popular resorts in Turkey and Egypt have suffered from foodborne illnesses, usually of unknown origin but poor hygienic conditions are blamed with law suits following, and the adverse publicity affects the long-term viability of some of these resorts. Food exports, important for local economies, have occasionally been contaminated resulting in recalls and sometimes illnesses and deaths, notably fenugreek seeds from Egypt (E. coli O104:H4), pomegranate arils from Turkey (hepatitis A virus), and tahini from Lebanon (Salmonella). Overall, in recent decades, the Middle East has made strides towards improving food safety for both residents and foreign visitors or ex-pat workers. However, within the countries there are large discrepancies in the extent of effective public health oversight including food safety and food security. Currently, almost all of the countries are involved to a greater or lesser extent in the civil wars in Syria and Yemen, or are affected through political tensions and strife in Egypt, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Palestine, Lebanon and Turkey. In addition, the current overproduction of oil on a world-wide scale has led to a rapid decrease in revenues to most Gulf states. All this points to a severe setback, and an uncertain foreseeable future for improvements in obtaining both sufficient and safe food for residents in this region.


id: cord-018364-b06084r1
title: The Emerging Threat of Ebola
author: LaBrunda, Michelle
date: 2019-06-07
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7123219/
doi: 10.1007/978-3-030-23491-1_6
abstract:
  Ebola is one of the deadliest infectious disease of the modern era. Over 50% of those infected die. Prior to 1976, the disease was unknown. No one knows exactly where it came from, but it is postulated that a mutation in an animal virus allowed it to jump species and infect humans. In 1976 simultaneous outbreaks of Ebola occurred in what is now South Sudan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). For 20 years, only sporadic cases were seen, but in 1995 a new outbreak occurred killing hundreds in the DRC. Since that time the frequency of these outbreaks has been increasing. It is uncertain why this is occurring, but many associate it with increasing human encroachment into forested areas bringing people and animals into more intimate contact and increased mobility of previously remote population. This chapter will navigate Ebola in the context of global health and security. There are multiple objectives of this chapter. First is to provide a basic understanding of Ebola disease processes and outbreak patterns. Second, is to explore the interplay between social determinants of health and Ebola. The role of technology in spreading Ebola outbreaks will be explained as will Ebola’s potential as a bioweapon. Readers will gain understanding of the link between environmental degradation and Ebola outbreaks. This chapter will be divided into five main sections. These are (1) a case study; (2) Ebola Disease process; (3) Social determinants of health and Ebola; (4) Ebola in the modern era, and (5) the link between Ebola and environmental degradation.


id: cord-018646-fqy82sm6
title: Brief History of Pandemics (Pandemics Throughout History)
author: Huremović, Damir
date: 2019-05-16
txt: ./txt/cord-018646-fqy82sm6.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-018646-fqy82sm6.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7123574/
doi: 10.1007/978-3-030-15346-5_2
summary:
  Starting with religious texts, which heavily reference plagues, this chapter establishes the fundamentals for our understanding of the scope, social, medical, and psychological impact that some pandemics effected on civilization, including the Black Death (a plague outbreak from the fourteenth century), the Spanish Flu of 1918, and the more recent outbreaks in the twenty-first century, including SARS, Ebola, and Zika. This includes the unexamined ways pandemic outbreaks might have shaped the specialty of psychiatry; psychoanalysis was gaining recognition as an established treatment within medical community at the time the last great pandemic was making global rounds a century ago. Stemming from Doric Greek word plaga (strike, blow), the word plague is a polyseme, used interchangeably to describe a particular, virulent contagious febrile disease caused by Yersinia pestis, as a general term for any epidemic disease causing a high rate of mortality, or more widely, as a metaphor for any sudden outbreak of a disastrous evil or affliction [4] .

abstract:
  Intermittent outbreaks of infectious diseases have had profound and lasting effects on societies throughout history. Those events have powerfully shaped the economic, political, and social aspects of human civilization, with their effects often lasting for centuries. Epidemic outbreaks have defined some of the basic tenets of modern medicine, pushing the scientific community to develop principles of epidemiology, prevention, immunization, and antimicrobial treatments. This chapter outlines some of the most notable outbreaks that took place in human history and are relevant for a better understanding of the rest of the material. Starting with religious texts, which heavily reference plagues, this chapter establishes the fundamentals for our understanding of the scope, social, medical, and psychological impact that some pandemics effected on civilization, including the Black Death (a plague outbreak from the fourteenth century), the Spanish Flu of 1918, and the more recent outbreaks in the twenty-first century, including SARS, Ebola, and Zika.


id: cord-019057-3j2fl358
title: Pandemic Influenza: A Comparative Ethical Approach
author: Afolabi, Michael Olusegun
date: 2018-08-28
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7124108/
doi: 10.1007/978-3-319-92765-7_3
abstract:
  Community-networks such as families and schools may foster and propagate some types of public health disasters. For such disasters, a communitarian-oriented ethical lens offers useful perspectives into the underlying relational nexus that favors the spread of infection. This chapter compares two traditional bioethical lenses—the communitarian and care ethics framework—vis-à-vis their capacities to engage the moral quandaries elicited by pandemic influenza. It argues that these quandaries preclude the analytical lens of ethical prisms that are individual-oriented but warrant a people-oriented approach. Adopting this dual approach offers both a contrastive and a complementary way of rethinking the underlying socioethical tensions elicited by pandemic influenza in particular and other public health disasters generally.


id: cord-021230-x6re8787
title: Emerging coordination and knowledge transfer process during disease outbreak
author: Bdeir, Fadl
date: 2012-05-07
txt: ./txt/cord-021230-x6re8787.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-021230-x6re8787.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7149177/
doi: 10.1057/kmrp.2012.1
summary:
  Using social networks and its analytic framework, we explore questions such as: How does the multi-agency coordination emerge for supporting the complex knowledge transfer process during different phases of disease outbreak? In this paper, we use measures from social network theory to better understand the dynamics of inter-organisational coordination during disease outbreaks and how this leads to collective decentralised knowledge sharing. We collect disease outbreak coordination data from Hunter New England Area Health Services (HNEAHS) in NSW, Australia for demonstrating the effectiveness of these network-based measures to accomplish an effective coordination and communication plan that will contribute to the reduction of infected cases and transmission rates. Since there are not many studies that deal with organisational dynamics at play in the disease outbreak context, we use an investigative approach with a qualitative case study to capture rich information from senior health disaster management practitioners in the field.

abstract:
  When multiple agencies respond to a disease outbreak (i.e., H1N1 and SARS), the coordination of actions is complex and evolves over time. There has not been any systematic empirical study of the dynamics of emerging coordination behaviour and knowledge transfer process during a disease outbreak. In this paper, we first introduce our approach for the analysis of multi-agency intervention during a disease outbreak using the study of social networks. Using social networks and its analytic framework, we explore questions such as: How does the multi-agency coordination emerge for supporting the complex knowledge transfer process during different phases of disease outbreak? How effective are these formal and informal coordination mechanisms in achieving a robust outcome in response coordination through effective knowledge transfer process during the outbreak? What are the key lessons learned by studying the emerging coordination and knowledge transfer process during past disease outbreak in improving the multi-agency preparedness for dealing with future outbreaks? The discussion is supported by a qualitative study of the implementation of the results of the analysis. We reveal that profound understanding of social network behaviour and emerging coordination concepts are pivotal to the optimisation of knowledge transfer process which is a prerequisite for successful outbreak intervention. We look qualitatively at how Hunter New England Area Health Services applied these concepts to lead a successful coordination plan during an H1N109 endemic.


id: cord-021571-7kbq0v9w
title: Infections Acquired in the Nursery: Epidemiology and Control
author: Heath, Joan A.
date: 2009-05-19
txt: ./txt/cord-021571-7kbq0v9w.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-021571-7kbq0v9w.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7150280/
doi: 10.1016/b0-72-160537-0/50037-2
abstract: nan
summary:
  The fact that a hand hygiene campaign was associated with increased hand hygiene compliance and a lower rate of CONS-positive cultures supports this ~ontention.''~ Enterococcus has been shown to account for 10% of total nosocomial infections in neonates, 6% to 15% of bloodstream infections, 0% to 5% of cases of pneumonia, 17% of urinary tract infections, and 9% of surgical site Sepsis and meningitis are common manifestations of enterococcal infection during NICU outbreak^''^,^^; however, polymicrobial bacteremia and NEC frequently accompany enterococcal sepsis.77 Identified risk factors for enterococcal sepsis, after adjustment for birth weight, include use of a nonumbilical CVC, prolonged presence of a CVC, and bowel resection?'' Because Enterococcus colonizes the gastrointestinal tract and can survive for long periods of time on inanimate surfaces, the patient''s environment may become contaminated and, along with the infant, serve as a reservoir for ongoing spread of the organism.


id: cord-022002-6edzmj7n
title: Cruise Ship Travel
author: Mitruka, Kiren
date: 2009-05-15
txt: ./txt/cord-022002-6edzmj7n.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-022002-6edzmj7n.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7152329/
doi: 10.1016/b978-0-323-03453-1.10034-3
abstract: nan
summary:
  Those include the names of the associated cruise lines and cruise ships, sailing dates, illness symptoms, the percentage of passenger and crew affected, control measures, and causative agent, if known. 24 Medical care aboard cruise ship is designed to provide cruise line passengers and crew members with timely access to comprehensive services for minor to severe illness and injury. 34 Clinicians can also play an important role in preventing influenza and other respiratory disease outbreaks aboard ships by â�ª asking travelers to refrain from traveling while ill and if illness develops during the trip, to practice respiratory hygiene and minimize contact with other people, including the cruise staff; and â�ª providing vaccination (or rarely, antiviral medications) as prevention, especially to high-risk populations as well as their close contacts, and those traveling in large tour groups, even if travel occurs during summer.


id: cord-022147-istz1iql
title: Procedures to Investigate Waterborne Illness
author: nan
date: 2016-07-13
txt: ./txt/cord-022147-istz1iql.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-022147-istz1iql.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7153435/
doi: 10.1007/978-3-319-26027-3_1
summary:
  • Identifying illness associated with an exposure and verifying that the causative agent is waterborne • Detecting all cases, the causative agent, and the place of exposure • Determining the water source, mode of contamination, processes, or practices by which proliferation and/or survival of the etiological agent occurred • Implementing emergency measures to control the spread of the outbreak • Gathering information on the epidemiology of waterborne diseases and the etiology of the causative agents that can be used for education, training, and program planning, thereby impacting on the prevention of waterborne illness • Determining if the outbreak under investigation is part of a larger outbreak by immediately reporting to state/provincial/national epidemiologists In the instance of a bottled water outbreak, halting of distribution and sale of product and recall of product, some of which may already be in consumers'' homes, are necessary to prevent further illness.

abstract:
  Humanity could not survive without a reliably clean, safe, and steady flow of drinking water. Since the early 1900s when typhoid fever and cholera were frequently causes of waterborne illness in developed countries, drinking water supplies have been protected and treated to ensure water safety, quality, and quantity. Having access to safe drinking water has always been one of the cornerstones of good public health. Not only safe water is limited to drinking water, but recreational water can also be a source for waterborne illness—both from treated waters such as in swimming pools, whirlpools, or splash pads and from non-treated surface waters such as lakes, rivers, streams and ponds. Recreational waters may cause illness not only from ingestion of pathogens, but also when in contact with eyes, ears, or skin. Some pathogens in water can be acquired by inhalation of aerosols from water that is agitated or sprayed such as in humidifiers, fountains, or misting of produce. This poses a potential risk to those exposed, particularly if they are immunocompromised.


id: cord-023510-gd4phncm
title: Theme Park Visitors’ Responses to the SARS Outbreak in Taiwan
author: Chuo, Hsin-You
date: 2007-05-02
txt: ./txt/cord-023510-gd4phncm.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-023510-gd4phncm.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7170396/
doi: 10.1016/s1745-3542(06)03006-2
summary:
  1. Can a significant discriminant function be developed to interpret the differences between respondents who did and did not visit theme parks during the SARS outbreak period in Taiwan on the basis of their personal characteristics? In addition to the information of respondents'' general demographics, their patronage frequency in the last year and whether they visited theme parks in the period of the SARS outbreak, the question content also consisted of scale items to measure ''''benefit sought,'''' ''''product involvement,'''' and ''''risk perception.'''' Ten individual benefit scale items were derived from Pearce''s (1993) Leisure Ladder Model for theme park visitors. Thus, on the one hand, whether or not the respondents visited theme parks during the SARS outbreak was adopted to be the dependant (criterion) variable; on the other, respondents'' age, their patronage frequency in the last year, and the factors condensed from scale items of respondents'' risk perception, benefit sought, and product involvement were adopted to be the independent variables (predictors) in the developing discriminant function.

abstract:
  The purpose of this study is to examine empirically different characteristics between theme park visitors who did and did not visit theme parks during the SARS outbreak period in Taiwan. The data consisting of 1,255 respondents were obtained from visitors to the five leading theme parks. Discriminant analysis was used to analyze respondents’ characteristics such as age, benefit sought, product involvement, and risk perception to examine significant differences between the two categories of respondents. Results of this study showed that younger or more frequent visitors more likely continued to visit theme parks during the SARS outbreak. Besides, visitors who continued to visit theme parks perceived greater infectious risk than those who did not visit theme parks during the SARS outbreak.


id: cord-023767-rcv4pl0d
title: Microorganisms Responsible for Neonatal Diarrhea
author: O’Ryan, Miguel L.
date: 2009-05-19
txt: ./txt/cord-023767-rcv4pl0d.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-023767-rcv4pl0d.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7173613/
doi: 10.1016/b0-72-160537-0/50022-0
abstract: nan
summary:
  coli may disappear completely from stools of breast-fed children during the ensuing weeks, this disappearance is believed to be related to factors present in the human milk rather than the gastric secretions.5~302~303 The use of breast-feeding or expressed human milk has even been effective in terminating nursery epidemics caused by EPEC 0 11 1:B4, probably by reducing the incidence of crossinfections among infants.3033304 Although dose-effect studies have not been performed among newborns, severe diarrhea has occurred after ingestion of 10'' EPEC organisms by very young The clinical syndrome is that of bloody, noninflammatory (sometimes voluminous) diarrhea that is distinct from febrile dysentery with fecal leukocytes seen in shigellosis or EIEC infection^.^^ Most cases of EHEC infections have been recognized in outbreaks of bloody diarrhea or HUS in daycare centers, schools, nursing homes, and c o m m~n i t i e s .~~~-~~~ Although EHEC infections often involve infants and young children, the frequency of this infection in neonates remains unclear; animal studies suggest that receptors for the Shiga toxin may be developmentally regulated and that susceptibility to disease may be age related.


id: cord-026416-h0w5jsyd
title: Introduction: The City During Outbreak Events
author: Cheshmehzangi, Ali
date: 2020-06-09
txt: ./txt/cord-026416-h0w5jsyd.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-026416-h0w5jsyd.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7278264/
doi: 10.1007/978-981-15-5487-2_1
summary:
  Throughout the whole process of an outbreak, we need to have careful measures for urban resilience; and these should be holistic and inclusive to better contain people, health, infrastructure, and management of the situation. This category is the focus of this book, through which we try to address resilience and management measures to overcome the urban challenges and diverse disruptions of disease outbreak events. In each event, the city resilience and management measures and methods are not the same, but they are generally similar in terms of how we should respond to the impacts and vulnerabilities caused by the situation. In this regard, an epidemic situation is defined as the further expansion of the outbreak event, normally including a larger number of cities and communities, beyond just a particular contained region. The next few chapters of the book focus purely on key factors of urban resilience and city management to address their practicalities in a probable case of an outbreak event.

abstract:
  As the largest quarantine in human history, the City of Wuhan, China, with more than 11 million people went under a complete lockdown situation on 23 Jan 2020. An unprecedented situation that lasted longer than ever imagined. This occurred solely due to the spread of the novel coronavirus disease (later renamed as “COVID-19”), just one day before the celebration of the Chinese New Year.


id: cord-029880-mhmvc0kq
title: Policy Development for Pandemic Response Using System Dynamics: a Case Study on COVID-19
author: Sy, Charlle
date: 2020-07-29
txt: ./txt/cord-029880-mhmvc0kq.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-029880-mhmvc0kq.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7388738/
doi: 10.1007/s41660-020-00130-x
summary:
  title: Policy Development for Pandemic Response Using System Dynamics: a Case Study on COVID-19 These models have been integral in providing insights necessary for developing risk management strategies that minimize the transmission of disease outbreaks and other negative impacts, such as shortages in essential resources and economic declines. Araz (2013) proposed an integrated framework joining system dynamics with analytic hierarchy process (AHP) a decision-making tool for the assessment of public health strategies in an influenza outbreak capturing multiple stakeholder preferences. To address this gap, this research is aimed to demonstrate the viability of system dynamics as a framework to understand and develop response strategies for disease pandemics such as COVID-19. The general objective of the study is to develop a system dynamics model of COVID-19 for different scenarios aiming to equip decision-makers with evidence-based judgment in the control of the outbreak. Integrating complex system dynamics of pandemic influenza with a multi-criteria decision making model for evaluating public health strategies

abstract:
  The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has burdened several countries. Its high transmissibility and mortality rate have caused devastating impacts on human lives. This has led countries to implement control strategies, such as social distancing, travel bans, and community lockdowns, with varying levels of success. However, a disease outbreak can cause significant economic disruption from business closures and risk avoidance behaviors. This paper raises policy recommendations through a system dynamics modeling approach. The developed model captures relationships, feedbacks, and delays present in a disease transmission system. The dynamics of several policies are analyzed and assessed based on effectiveness in mitigating infection and the resulting economic strain.


id: cord-103286-k1po7bzb
author: Jean, K.
date: 2020-07-11
txt: ./txt/cord-103286-k1po7bzb.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-103286-k1po7bzb.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: http://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.07.09.20147355v1?rss=1
doi: 10.1101/2020.07.09.20147355
summary:
  title: Assessing the impact of preventive mass vaccination campaigns on yellow fever outbreaks in Africa : a population-level self-controlled case-series study Methods: We used the self-controlled case series (SCCS) method to assess the association between the occurrence of yellow fever outbreaks and the implementation of PMVCs at the province level in the African endemic region. Here, we illustrate the use of the SCCS method at the population level by assessing the association between the implementation of PMVCs and the occurrence of yellow fever outbreaks at the province level in the African endemic region between 2005 and 2018. Relying on the Self-Controlled Case Series (SCCS) method, which allows to use each case as its own control and thus eliminates all time invariant confounding, we estimated that PMVC reduces the risk of yellow fever outbreak by 86% (66% to 94%) at the province level.

title:
  Assessing the impact of preventive mass vaccination campaigns on yellow fever outbreaks in Africa : a population-level self-controlled case-series study

abstract:
  Introduction: The Eliminate Yellow fever Epidemics (EYE) strategy was launched in 2017 in response to the resurgence of yellow fever in Africa and the Americas. The strategy relies on several vaccination activities, including preventive mass vaccination campaigns (PMVCs). However, by how much PMVCs decrease the risk of outbreak to occur has not yet been quantified. Methods: We used the self-controlled case series (SCCS) method to assess the association between the occurrence of yellow fever outbreaks and the implementation of PMVCs at the province level in the African endemic region. As all time-invariant confounders are implicitly controlled for, the SCCS method is an alternative to classical cohort or case-control study designs when the risk of residual confounding is high. The location and dates of outbreaks were identified from international epidemiological records, and information on PMVCs was provided by coordinators of vaccination activities and international funders. The study sample consisted of provinces that were both affected by an outbreak and targeted for a PMVC between 2005 and 2018. We compared the relative incidence of outbreaks before and after the implementation of a PMVC. The sensitivity of our estimates to a range of assumptions was explored, and the results of the SCCS method were compared to those obtained through a retrospective cohort study design. We further derived the number of yellow fever outbreaks that have been prevented by PMVCs. Results: The study sample consisted of 33 African provinces. Among these, outbreaks occurred during the pre-PMVC period in 26 (78.8%) provinces versus 7 (21.2%) occurring in the post-PMVC period. This corresponded to a significantly reduced incidence rate ratio of 0.14 (95% Confidence interval 0.06 to 0.34) for the post-PMVC versus pre-PMVC period. This estimate was robust across a range of sensitivity analyses, while the results of the cohort-style analyses were highly sensitive to the choice of covariates included in the model. Based on the SCCS results, we estimated that PMVCs have reduced the number of outbreaks by 34% (22% to 45%) in Africa over the study period. Conclusion: Our estimates provide new empirical evidence of the high preventive impact of PMVCs on yellow fever outbreaks. This study illustrates that the SCCS method can be advantageously applied at the population level in order to evaluate a public health intervention.


id: cord-104128-0gyk9cwx
title: The accelerated infectious disease risk in the Anthropocene: more outbreaks and wider global spread
author: Morand, Serge
date: 2020-04-20
txt: ./txt/cord-104128-0gyk9cwx.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-104128-0gyk9cwx.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.20.049866
doi: 10.1101/2020.04.20.049866
summary:
  Countries which are more centrally located within these disease networks tend to be also the more developed and emerging countries with significantly higher GDPs. Therefore, one cost of increased global mobility (which is currently tightly linked to economic growth and globalization, see Discussion below) is the increased risk of disease outbreaks and their faster and wider spread (although we note that the risk per capita may be decreasing, Smith et al., 2014) . Similarly, increasing levels of (1) isolation of infectious hosts, household quarantine and related behavioral changes which reduce transmission rates and (2) air traffic reduction increasingly slowed the global spread of influenza, although the latter control strategy required the almost complete halt of global air traffic (Cooper et al., 2006; Ferguson et al., 2006; Flahault et al., 2006; Hollingsworth et al., 2006; Epstein et al., 2007; Bajardi 11 et al., 2011) .

abstract:
  The greatly accelerated economic growth during the Anthropocene has resulted in astonishing improvements in many aspects of human well-being, but has also caused the acceleration of risks, such as the interlinked biodiversity and climate crisis. Here, we report on another risk: the accelerated infectious disease risk associated with the number and geographic spread of human infectious disease outbreaks. Using the most complete, reliable, and up-to-date database on human infectious disease outbreaks (GIDEON), we show that the number of disease outbreaks, the number of diseases involved in these outbreaks, and the number of countries affected have increased during the entire Anthropocene. Furthermore, the spatial distribution of these outbreaks is becoming more globalized in the sense that the overall modularity of the disease networks across the globe has decreased, meaning disease outbreaks have become increasingly pandemic in their nature. This decrease in modularity is correlated with the increase in air traffic. We finally show that those countries and regions which are most central within these disease networks tend to be countries with higher GDPs. Therefore, one cost of increased global mobility and greater economic growth is the increased risk of disease outbreaks and their faster and wider spread. We briefly discuss three different scenarios which decision-makers might follow in light of our results.


id: cord-135784-ad5avzd6
author: Gharavi, Erfaneh
date: 2020-05-01
txt: ./txt/cord-135784-ad5avzd6.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-135784-ad5avzd6.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.00475v1.pdf
doi: nan
summary:
  In the case of COVID-19 pandemic, delay in developing the test kits, the limited number of kits, complicated bureaucratic health care systems, and lack of transparency in data collection procedures are the major origins of postponement of effective preventive interventions and mitigatory (Washington post; Achrekar et al. To offer a framework for outbreak early detection, the result of analysis on Twitter data are compared to the formal dataset provided by John Hopkins University which is openly available to the public for educational and academic research purposes 3 . Looking into the temporal trends in the Twitter data in 50 states of the US, prior to the official detection of the epidemic outbreak in any of the given states, as expected, we observe linear growth in the number of tweets following the news media reporting on the outbreak in china and later in western Europe.

title:
  Early Outbreak Detection for Proactive Crisis Management Using Twitter Data: COVID-19 a Case Study in the US

abstract:
  During a disease outbreak, timely non-medical interventions are critical in preventing the disease from growing into an epidemic and ultimately a pandemic. However, taking quick measures requires the capability to detect the early warning signs of the outbreak. This work collects Twitter posts surrounding the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic expressing the most common symptoms of COVID-19 including cough and fever, geolocated to the United States. Through examining the variation in Twitter activities at the state level, we observed a temporal lag between the rises in the number of symptom reporting tweets and officially reported positive cases which varies between 5 to 19 days.


id: cord-255704-cg3j4jac
title: Hospital-acquired viral pathogens in the neonatal intensive care unit
author: Gelber, Shari E.
date: 2002-10-31
txt: ./txt/cord-255704-cg3j4jac.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-255704-cg3j4jac.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12452507/
doi: 10.1053/sper.2002.36268
summary:
  We review the common viral causes of hospital-acquired infections in neonates, including rotavirus, respiratory syncytial virus, and others, discuss epidemiology and clinical syndromes, and summarize recommendations for control in outbreak situations. Once HAV has been introduced, several aspects of the NICU setting appear to encourage spread of virus: 1) The likelihood that affected neonates may be asymptomatic; 2) Fecal-oral spread by personnel who care for multiple patients with tasks that may include the changing of diapers and the placement or manipulation of enteral feeding equipment; 3) Lack of adherence to hand washing and glove wearing; and 4) Increased duration of viral shedding among infants.

abstract:
  Hospital-acquired infections caused by viruses are a cause of considerable morbidity and occasional mortality in critically ill neonates. The intensive care environment allows for efficient spread of viral pathogens, and secondary cases among both patients and healthcare workers are frequently observed. We review the common viral causes of hospital-acquired infections in neonates, including rotavirus, respiratory syncytial virus, and others, discuss epidemiology and clinical syndromes, and summarize recommendations for control in outbreak situations. Chemoprophylaxis, isolation procedures, and care of affected staff are also addressed.


id: cord-262623-lmf2h6oc
author: Light, R. Bruce
date: 2009-01-31
txt: ./txt/cord-262623-lmf2h6oc.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-262623-lmf2h6oc.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19268795/
doi: 10.1016/j.ccc.2008.11.002
summary:
  In addition to the HIV pandemic, the smaller epidemic outbreaks of Legionnaire''s disease, hantavirus pulmonary syndrome, and severe acute respiratory syndrome, among many others, points out the potential risk associated with a lack of preplanning and preparedness. In the late 1970s, emergency rooms and ICUs throughout North America began to see an increasing number of young menstruating women presenting with a previously little-known syndrome characterized by sudden onset of a high fever, often associated with vomiting and diarrhea, quickly followed by severe hypotension. At the beginning of the epidemic, most patients presenting for care with HIV/AIDS and Pneumocystosis were severely ill with diffuse pneumonia and hypoxemic respiratory failure and many died, 80%-90% in most centers, prompting widespread debate about whether such patients should even be admitted to ICU for mechanical ventilatory support.

title:
  Plagues in the ICU: A Brief History of Community-Acquired Epidemic and Endemic Transmissible Infections Leading to Intensive Care Admission

abstract:
  The ability to diagnose and treat infectious diseases and handle infectious disease outbreaks continues to improve. For the most part, the major plagues of antiquity remain historical footnotes, yet, despite many advances, there is clear evidence that major pandemic illness is always just one outbreak away. In addition to the HIV pandemic, the smaller epidemic outbreaks of Legionnaire's disease, hantavirus pulmonary syndrome, and severe acute respiratory syndrome, among many others, points out the potential risk associated with a lack of preplanning and preparedness. Although pandemic influenza is at the top of the list when discussing possible future major infectious disease outbreaks, the truth is that the identity of the next major pandemic pathogen cannot be predicted with any accuracy. We can only hope that general preparedness and the lessons learned from previous outbreaks suffice.


id: cord-265025-xu8bc2eg
author: Yu, Pengbo
date: 2013-08-15
txt: ./txt/cord-265025-xu8bc2eg.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-265025-xu8bc2eg.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1111/1348-0421.12074
doi: 10.1111/1348-0421.12074
summary:
  title: Outbreak of acute respiratory disease caused by human adenovirus type 7 in a military training camp in Shaanxi, China Antibody against HAdV in serum tested using ELISA HAdV IgA was detected from 80 patient sera collected from the acute phase and 12 healthy control serum samples by using an ELISA Classic adenovirus IgA kit (Institute Virion/Serion GmbH, Würzburg, Germany). IgA antibody assay progress It is interesting that several types of HAdV are circulating in Shaanxi province which indicates the need for a surveillance network for adenovirus infections. To confirm HAdV infection, the 30 paired sera titers of neutralization antibody against the viral strain isolated in this outbreak were detected. Outbreak of acute respiratory disease in China caused by B2 species of adenovirus type 11 Reemergence of adenovirus type 4 acute respiratory disease in military trainees: report of an outbreak during a lapse in vaccination

title:
  Outbreak of acute respiratory disease caused by human adenovirus type 7 in a military training camp in Shaanxi, China

abstract:
  Outbreaks of ARD associated with HAdV have been reported in military populations in many countries. Here, we report an ARD outbreak caused by HAdV‐7 in a military training camp in Shaanxi Province, China, from February to March of 2012. Epidemic data and samples from the patients were collected, and viral nucleotides from samples and viral isolations were detected and sequenced. IgG and IgA antibodies against HAdV, and the neutralization antibodies against the viral strain isolated in this outbreak, were detected. Epidemiological study showed that all personnel affected were males with an average age of 19.1 years. Two peaks appeared on the epicurve and there was an 8‐day interval between peaks. Laboratory results of viral nucleotide detection carried out with clinical specimens were positive for HAdV (83.33%, 15/18). Further study through serum antibody assay, virus isolation and phylogenetic analysis showed that HAdV‐7 was the etiological agent responsible for the outbreak. IgA antibody began to appear on the 4th day after the onset and showed 100% positivity on the 8th day. The virus strain in the present outbreak was highly similar to the virus isolated in Hanzhong Shaanxi in 2009. We conclude that HAdV‐7 was the pathogen corresponding to the outbreak, and this is the first report of an ARD outbreak caused by HAdV‐7 in military persons in China. Vaccine development, as well as enhanced epidemiological and virological surveillance of HAdV infections in China should be emphasized.


id: cord-266480-u8o4eitu
title: Preventing outbreaks through interactive, experiential real-life simulations
author: Colubri, Andrés
date: 2020-09-02
txt: ./txt/cord-266480-u8o4eitu.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-266480-u8o4eitu.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32905783/
doi: 10.1016/j.cell.2020.08.042
summary:
  Operation Outbreak (OO) is an educational curriculum and simulation platform that uses Bluetooth to spread a virtual "pathogen" in real-time across smartphones in close proximity. The app-generated data from these simulations represented the "ground truth" of the mock outbreaks, captured several essential features of SARS-CoV-2, and allowed us to observe behavioral changes among participants--many of which are now being mirrored in real life. Our 2018 SMA Ebola simulation first showed how student social-distancing could affect an "outbreak''s" trajectory ( Figure 2A More detailed data from the 2019 simulation allowed us to reconstruct transmission chains over time and identify important features of the outbreak, such as the existence of two super-spreaders causing 4 and 5 secondary infections early in the game ( Figure 2C ). We envision OO as playing two key roles: (1) as a pedagogical platform for teaching fundamentals of pandemic response that are vital for the public to understand and (2) as a novel system for simulating outbreaks and evaluating real-world mitigation strategies, including those needed to restart in-person education.

abstract:
  Operation Outbreak (OO) is a simulation platform that teaches students how pathogens spread and the impact of interventions, thereby facilitating the safe re-opening of schools. In addition, OO generates data to inform epidemiological models and prevent future outbreaks. Before SARS-CoV-2 was reported we repeatedly simulated a virus with similar features, correctly predicting many human behaviors later observed during the pandemic.


id: cord-266526-8csl9md0
author: Li, Shuai
date: 2020-10-24
txt: ./txt/cord-266526-8csl9md0.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-266526-8csl9md0.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33132484/
doi: 10.1016/j.buildenv.2020.107394
summary:
  title: Integrated environment-occupant-pathogen information modeling to assess and communicate room-level outbreak risks of infectious diseases To inform occupants and guide facility managers to prevent and respond to infectious disease outbreaks, this study proposed a framework to assess room-level outbreak risks in buildings by modeling built environment characteristics, occupancy information, and pathogen transmission. The efficacy of the proposed method was demonstrated by a case study, in which building characteristics, occupancy schedules, pathogen parameters, as well as hygiene and cleaning practices are considered for outbreak risk assessment. This study contributes to the body of knowledge by computationally integrating building, occupant, and pathogen information modeling for infectious disease outbreak assessment, and communicating actionable information for built environment management. This study aims to develop a framework for room-level outbreak risk assessment based on 105 integrated building-occupancy-pathogen modeling to mitigate the spread of infectious disease in 106

title:
  Integrated environment-occupant-pathogen information modeling to assess and communicate room-level outbreak risks of infectious diseases

abstract:
  Microbial pathogen transmission within built environments is a main public health concern. The pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) adds to the urgency of developing effective means to reduce pathogen transmission in mass-gathering public buildings such as schools, hospitals, and airports. To inform occupants and guide facility managers to prevent and respond to infectious disease outbreaks, this study proposed a framework to assess room-level outbreak risks in buildings by modeling built environment characteristics, occupancy information, and pathogen transmission. Building information modeling (BIM) is exploited to automatically retrieve building parameters and possible occupant interactions that are relevant to pathogen transmission. The extracted information is fed into an environment pathogen transmission model to derive the basic reproduction numbers for different pathogens, which serve as proxies of outbreak potentials in rooms. A web-based system is developed to provide timely information regarding outbreak risks to occupants and facility managers. The efficacy of the proposed method was demonstrated by a case study, in which building characteristics, occupancy schedules, pathogen parameters, as well as hygiene and cleaning practices are considered for outbreak risk assessment. This study contributes to the body of knowledge by computationally integrating building, occupant, and pathogen information modeling for infectious disease outbreak assessment, and communicating actionable information for built environment management.


id: cord-271862-jk37ej4c
title: Indoor transmission of SARS-CoV-2
author: Qian, Hua
date: 2020-04-07
txt: ./txt/cord-271862-jk37ej4c.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-271862-jk37ej4c.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.04.20053058
doi: 10.1101/2020.04.04.20053058
summary:
  Methods: Case reports were extracted from the local Municipal Health Commissions of 320 prefectural cities (municipalities) in China, not including Hubei province, between 4 January and 11 February 2020. Conclusions: All identified outbreaks of three or more cases occurred in an indoor environment, which confirms that sharing indoor space is a major SARS-CoV-2 infection risk. 2 Since 20 January 2020, the local health authorities of cities outside Hubei have reported online the details of most identified cases of infections. In this study, we identified the outbreaks from these case reports from the local Municipal Health Commissions of 320 prefectural cities (municipalities) in China, not including Hubei province, between 4 January and 11 February 2020 and reviewed the major characteristics of the enclosed areas in which these outbreaks were determined to have occurred and associated indoor environment issues. We collected descriptions of each confirmed case from the local Municipal Health Commission website of 320 prefectural cities in mainland China, not including Hubei province.

abstract:
  Background: By early April 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic had infected nearly one million people and had spread to nearly all countries worldwide. It is essential to understand where and how SARS-CoV-2 is transmitted. Methods: Case reports were extracted from the local Municipal Health Commissions of 320 prefectural cities (municipalities) in China, not including Hubei province, between 4 January and 11 February 2020. We identified all outbreaks involving three or more cases and reviewed the major characteristics of the enclosed spaces in which the outbreaks were reported and associated indoor environmental issues. Results: Three hundred and eighteen outbreaks with three or more cases were identified, involving 1245 confirmed cases in 120 prefectural cities. We divided the venues in which the outbreaks occurred into six categories: homes, transport, food, entertainment, shopping, and miscellaneous. Among the identified outbreaks, 53.8% involved three cases, 26.4% involved four cases, and only 1.6% involved ten or more cases. Home outbreaks were the dominant category (254 of 318 outbreaks; 79.9%), followed by transport (108; 34.0%; note that many outbreaks involved more than one venue category). Most home outbreaks involved three to five cases. We identified only a single outbreak in an outdoor environment, which involved two cases. Conclusions: All identified outbreaks of three or more cases occurred in an indoor environment, which confirms that sharing indoor space is a major SARS-CoV-2 infection risk.


id: cord-274332-vuupgg7i
title: Genomics and outbreak investigation: from sequence to consequence
author: Robinson, Esther R
date: 2013-04-29
txt: ./txt/cord-274332-vuupgg7i.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-274332-vuupgg7i.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23673226/
doi: 10.1186/gm440
summary:
  We conclude that high-throughput sequencing approaches can make a significant contribution to the investigation of outbreaks of bacterial infection and that the integration of WGS with epidemiological investigation, diagnostic assays and antimicrobial susceptibility testing will precipitate radical changes in clinical microbiology and infectious disease epidemiology in the near future. Although we recognize that virologists pioneered the use of WGS for pathogen typing, targeting genomes small enough for WGS with traditional Sanger sequencing [21] , here we will concentrate on the application of WGS to outbreaks of bacterial infection, catalyzed by the recent arrival in the marketplace of a range of technologies that fall under the umbrella term ''high-throughput sequencing'' (sometimes called ''next-generation sequencing'') [22, 23] .

abstract:
  Outbreaks of infection can be devastating for individuals and societies. In this review, we examine the applications of new high-throughput sequencing approaches to the identification and characterization of outbreaks, focusing on the application of whole-genome sequencing (WGS) to outbreaks of bacterial infection. We describe traditional epidemiological analysis and show how WGS can be informative at multiple steps in outbreak investigation, as evidenced by many recent studies. We conclude that high-throughput sequencing approaches can make a significant contribution to the investigation of outbreaks of bacterial infection and that the integration of WGS with epidemiological investigation, diagnostic assays and antimicrobial susceptibility testing will precipitate radical changes in clinical microbiology and infectious disease epidemiology in the near future. However, several challenges remain before WGS can be routinely used in outbreak investigation and clinical practice.


id: cord-275646-4hpfw9jk
author: Chen, Simiao
date: 2020-09-20
txt: ./txt/cord-275646-4hpfw9jk.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-275646-4hpfw9jk.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/pii/S2095809920302514
doi: 10.1016/j.eng.2020.07.018
summary:
  The objective of our study was to explore the impact of the timing and duration of outbreak-control holidays on the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic spread during the early stage in China. While several studies have investigated the effectiveness of travel restrictions and social distancing measures in preventing the spread of COVID-19 in China, it is still generally unclear how the trend of an epidemic changes according to different characteristics of an outbreak-control holiday [22, 23] . The goal of our study was not to replicate the entire epidemic trajectory and the control efforts during the COVID-19 epidemic in China, but rather to explore the impact of an outbreak-control holiday that primarily focused on social distancing during the early period of the epidemic and to understand how its duration and starting time would affect the pace of disease transmission in general.

title:
  Buying time for an effective epidemic response: The impact of a public holiday for outbreak control on COVID-19 epidemic spread

abstract:
  Rapid responses in the early stage of a new epidemic are crucial in outbreak control. Public holidays for outbreak control could provide a critical time window for a rapid rollout of social distancing and other control measures at a large population scale. The objective of our study was to explore the impact of the timing and duration of outbreak-control holidays on the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic spread during the early stage in China. We developed a compartment model to simulate the dynamic transmission of COVID-19 in China starting from January 2020. We projected and compared epidemic trajectories with and without an outbreak-control holiday that started during the Chinese Lunar New Year. We considered multiple scenarios of the outbreak-control holiday with different durations and starting times, and under different assumptions about viral transmission rates. We estimated the delays in days to reach certain thresholds of infections under different scenarios. Our results show that the outbreak-control holiday in China likely stalled the spread of COVID-19 for several days. The base case outbreak-control holiday (21 d for Hubei province and 10 days for all other provinces) delayed the time to reach 100 000 confirmed infections by 7.54 d. A longer outbreak-control holiday would have had stronger effects. A nationwide outbreak-control holiday of 21 d would have delayed the time to 100 000 confirmed infections by nearly 10 d. Furthermore, we find that outbreak-control holidays that start earlier in the course of a new epidemic are more effective in stalling epidemic spread than later holidays and that additional control measures during the holidays can boost the holiday effect. In conclusion, an outbreak-control holiday can likely effectively delay the transmission of epidemics that spread through social contacts. The temporary delay in the epidemic trajectory buys time, which scientists can use to discover transmission routes and identify effective public health interventions and which governments can use to build physical infrastructure, organize medical supplies, and deploy human resources for long-term epidemic mitigation and control efforts.


id: cord-276254-q04hqra2
author: Paul, Kishor Kumar
date: 2020-06-02
txt: ./txt/cord-276254-q04hqra2.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-276254-q04hqra2.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.05.111
doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.05.111
summary:
  title: Comparing insights from clinic-based versus community-based outbreak investigations: a case study of chikungunya in Bangladesh In this context, community-based investigations may provide additional insight into key risk factors for infection, however, the benefits of these more laborious data collection strategies remains unclear. (Khatun et al., 2015 , Salje et al., 2016b Here we use the results from a detailed investigation of an outbreak of chikungunya virus in a village in Tangail, Bangladesh where the outbreak team visited every household in the community and interviewed all members in each household. This investigation suggests that chikungunya virus has become an emerging public health problem in Bangladesh, and outbreak investigations of emerging infections often have the objective of estimating attack rates of diseases and identifying the risk factors that lead to infection.

title:
  Comparing insights from clinic-based versus community-based outbreak investigations: a case study of chikungunya in Bangladesh

abstract:
  Abstract Background Outbreak investigations typically focus their efforts on identifying cases that present at healthcare facilities. However, these cases rarely represent all cases in the wider community. In this context, community-based investigations may provide additional insight into key risk factors for infection, however, the benefits of these more laborious data collection strategies remains unclear. Methods We used different subsets of the data from a comprehensive outbreak investigation to compare the inferences we make in alternative investigation strategies. Results The outbreak investigation team interviewed 1,933 individuals from 460 homes. 364 (18%) of individuals had symptoms consistent with chikungunya. A theoretical clinic-based study would have identified 26% of the cases. Adding in community-based cases provided an overall estimate of the attack rate in the community. Comparison with controls from the same household revealed that those with at least secondary education had a reduced risk. Finally, enrolling residents from households across the community allowed us to characterize spatial heterogeneity of risk and identify the type of clothing usually worn and travel history as risk factors. This also revealed that household-level use of mosquito control was not associated with infection. Conclusions These findings highlight that while clinic-based studies may be easier to conduct, they only provide limited insight into the burden and risk factors for disease. Enrolling people who escaped from infection, both in the household and in the community allows a step change in our understanding of the spread of a pathogen and maximizes opportunities for control.


id: cord-276758-k2imddzr
author: Siegel, Jane D.
date: 2007-12-07
txt: ./txt/cord-276758-k2imddzr.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-276758-k2imddzr.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18068815/
doi: 10.1016/j.ajic.2007.10.007
abstract: nan
summary:
  Activities currently assigned to ICPs in response to emerging challenges include (1) surveillance and infection prevention at facilities other than acute care hospitals (eg, ambulatory clinics, day surgery centers, LTCFs, rehabilitation centers, home care); (2) oversight of employee health services related to infection prevention (eg, assessment of risk and administration of recommended treatment after exposure to infectious agents, tuberculosis screening, influenza vaccination, respiratory protection fit testing, and administration of other vaccines as indicated, such as smallpox vaccine in 2003); (3) preparedness planning for annual influenza outbreaks, pandemic influenza, SARS, and bioweapons attacks; (4) adherence monitoring for selected infection control practices; (5) oversight of risk assessment and implementation of prevention measures associated with construction and renovation; (6) prevention of transmission of MDROs; (7) evaluation of new medical products that could be associated with increased infection risk (eg, intravenous infusion materials); (8) communication with the public, facility staff, and state and local health departments concerning infection control-related issues; and (9) participation in local and multicenter research projects.

title:
  2007 Guideline for Isolation Precautions: Preventing Transmission of Infectious Agents in Health Care Settings


id: cord-277765-koa8ao10
author: Stoddard, M.
date: 2020-11-07
txt: ./txt/cord-277765-koa8ao10.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-277765-koa8ao10.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: http://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.11.05.20226712v1?rss=1
doi: 10.1101/2020.11.05.20226712
summary:
  We assumed disease dynamics in this period reflect the underlying rate of disease spread before outbreak response measures such as increased testing-based isolation and mass evacuation began impacting the number of cases. The Navy employed two strategies to control the Roosevelt outbreak: removal of sailors at random by mass evacuation and targeted removal of sailors who tested positive by isolation (either onboard or onshore) (LaGrone, Jun 2020). In Figure 2 , we assess the impact of a mass evacuation-based outbreak mitigation strategy, in which testing is absent and sailor removals are exposure-agnostic. The selected strategy involves evacuation of 5% of crew members daily until 10% of the initial crew remains; testing at a rate of 10% of the total crew daily; and immediate implementation of both measures at the time of detection of the first case ( Figure 6 ).

title:
  COVID-19 isolation and containment strategies for ships: Lessons from the USS Theodore Roosevelt outbreak

abstract:
  The control of shipborne disease outbreaks represents a vexing but entirely predictable challenge at the start of any pandemic. Passenger ships, with large numbers of people confined in close quarters, can serve as incubators of disease, seeding the pandemic across the globe as infected passengers return home. Short-term steps taken by local authorities can exacerbate this problem, creating humanitarian crises and worsening the scale of the outbreak. In this work, we have undertaken a model-based examination of the USS Theodore Roosevelt outbreak to understand the dynamics of COVID-19 spread aboard the aircraft carrier. We have used a series of counterfactual "what-if" analyses to better understand the options available to public health authorities in such situations. The models suggest that rapid mass evacuation and widespread surveillance testing can be effective in these settings. Our results lead to a set of generalizable recommendations for disease control that are broadly applicable to the current COVID-19 crisis as well as to future pandemics.


id: cord-278913-u6vihq3u
title: The Rise of Machine Intelligence in the COVID-19 Pandemic and Its Impact on Health Policy
author: Allam, Zaheer
date: 2020-07-24
txt: ./txt/cord-278913-u6vihq3u.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-278913-u6vihq3u.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/pii/B9780128243138000061
doi: 10.1016/b978-0-12-824313-8.00006-1
summary:
  For instance, despite the challenges raised earlier, some startup companies were able to use the available data from social media, airline ticketing, and medical institutions to identify that the world is experiencing a new virus outbreak days before those in medical fraternity had made similar findings (Gaille, 2019) . According to Niiler (2020) , BlueDot, whose profile is shared in the following, was able to employ the services of AIdriven algorithms, to analyze data gathered from sources such as new reports, air ticketing, and animal disease outbreaks to predict that the world is facing a new type of virus outbreak. In the recent case of COVID-19, Metabiota was in the forefront to analyze the outbreak, and during the analysis of the data, some even sourced from social media, the company was able to predict which neighboring countries were at high risk of being the next target of the virus spread, more so because the panic in Wuhan had stated to trigger some fear, forcing people to flee.

abstract:
  The use of advanced technologies, especially predictive computing in the health sector, is on the rise in this era, and they have successfully transformed the sector with quality insights, better decision-making, and quality policies. Even though notable benefits have been achieved through the uptake of the technologies, adoption is still slow, as most of them are still new, hence facing some hurdles in their applications especially in national and international policy levels. But the recent case of COVID-19 outbreak has given an opportunity to showcase that these technologies, especially artificial intelligence (AI), have the capacity to produce accurate, real-time, and reliable predictions on issues as serious as pandemic outbreak. A case in point is how companies such as BlueDot and Metabiota managed to correctly predict the spread route of the virus days before such events happened and officially announced by the World Health Organization. In this chapter, an increase in the use of AI-based technologies to detect infectious diseases is underlined and how such uses have led to early detections of infectious diseases. Nevertheless, there is evidence that there is need to enhance data sharing activities, especially by rethinking how to improve the efficiency of data protocols. The chapter further proposes the need for enhanced use of technologies and data sharing to ensure that future outbreaks are detected even earlier, thus accelerating early preventive measures.


id: cord-279255-v861kk0i
title: Coronavirus Disease 2019–COVID-19
author: Dhama, Kuldeep
date: 2020-06-24
txt: ./txt/cord-279255-v861kk0i.txt
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extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32580969/
doi: 10.1128/cmr.00028-20
summary:
  Recently, a new type of viral infection emerged in Wuhan City, China, and initial genomic sequencing data of this virus do not match with previously sequenced CoVs, suggesting a novel CoV strain (2019-nCoV), which has now been termed severe acute respiratory syndrome CoV-2 (SARS-CoV-2). Compared to diseases caused by previously known human CoVs, COVID-19 shows less severe pathogenesis but higher transmission competence, as is evident from the continuously increasing number of confirmed cases globally. Recently, a novel coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), causing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID19) , emerged in late 2019, and it has posed a global health threat, causing an ongoing pandemic in many countries and territories (1) . Health workers worldwide are currently making efforts to control further disease outbreaks caused by the novel CoV (originally named 2019-nCoV), which was first identified in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China, on 12 December 2019.

abstract:
  In recent decades, several new diseases have emerged in different geographical areas, with pathogens including Ebola virus, Zika virus, Nipah virus, and coronaviruses (CoVs). Recently, a new type of viral infection emerged in Wuhan City, China, and initial genomic sequencing data of this virus do not match with previously sequenced CoVs, suggesting a novel CoV strain (2019-nCoV), which has now been termed severe acute respiratory syndrome CoV-2 (SARS-CoV-2). Although coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is suspected to originate from an animal host (zoonotic origin) followed by human-to-human transmission, the possibility of other routes should not be ruled out. Compared to diseases caused by previously known human CoVs, COVID-19 shows less severe pathogenesis but higher transmission competence, as is evident from the continuously increasing number of confirmed cases globally. Compared to other emerging viruses, such as Ebola virus, avian H7N9, SARS-CoV, and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV), SARS-CoV-2 has shown relatively low pathogenicity and moderate transmissibility. Codon usage studies suggest that this novel virus has been transferred from an animal source, such as bats. Early diagnosis by real-time PCR and next-generation sequencing has facilitated the identification of the pathogen at an early stage. Since no antiviral drug or vaccine exists to treat or prevent SARS-CoV-2, potential therapeutic strategies that are currently being evaluated predominantly stem from previous experience with treating SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV, and other emerging viral diseases. In this review, we address epidemiological, diagnostic, clinical, and therapeutic aspects, including perspectives of vaccines and preventive measures that have already been globally recommended to counter this pandemic virus.


id: cord-279681-ezu1j0tc
title: From Hendra to Wuhan: what has been learned in responding to emerging zoonotic viruses
author: Wang, Lin-Fa
date: 2020-02-11
txt: ./txt/cord-279681-ezu1j0tc.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-279681-ezu1j0tc.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(20)30350-0
doi: 10.1016/s0140-6736(20)30350-0
abstract: nan
summary:
  As the world watches the rapid spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak, it is important to reflect on the lessons that can be learned from this and previous emerging zoonotic viruses (EZV) in a comparative and analytic way. To our knowledge, all previous EZV outbreak investigations started with a live virus isolation, including the 2012 Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) discovery. While recognising the tremendous effort by the China CDC team in the early response to the 2019-nCoV outbreak, the small number of team members trained in animal health was probably one of the reasons for the delay in identifying an intermediate animal(s), which is likely to have caused the spread of the virus in a region of the market where wildlife animals were traded and subsequently found to be heavily contaminated.


id: cord-280285-mwuix1tv
author: Inkster, T.
date: 2017-05-06
txt: ./txt/cord-280285-mwuix1tv.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-280285-mwuix1tv.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhin.2017.05.002
doi: 10.1016/j.jhin.2017.05.002
summary:
  title: Consecutive yearly outbreaks of respiratory syncytial virus in a haemato-oncology ward and efficacy of infection control measures In December 2015 three patients on the haematology ward with respiratory symptoms tested positive for RSV in a 24 h period. On the day of ward closure a fourth patient with respiratory symptoms tested positive for RSV and was isolated with precautions in place. Confirmed case of RSV Any patient or staff member with respiratory symptoms and a positive respiratory sample for RSV Probable case of RSV Any patient or staff member with respiratory symptoms Asymptomatic carrier Any patient or staff member in whom RSV was detected on screening in the absence of respiratory symptoms or fever measuring both standard and transmission-based infection control precautions at the time of ward reopening, and a training package was put in place for ward staff.

title:
  Consecutive yearly outbreaks of respiratory syncytial virus in a haemato-oncology ward and efficacy of infection control measures

abstract:
  BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causes significant respiratory tract infection in immunosuppressed patients. AIM: To describe two consecutive yearly outbreaks of RSV in our haemato-oncology ward. METHODS: Haematology patients presenting with respiratory symptoms were screened by polymerase chain reaction for viral respiratory pathogens using a saline gargle. FINDINGS: None of our patients had undergone bone marrow transplant but all had underlying haematological malignancies. Eight patients were affected in the first outbreak (mortality rate: 37.5%) and 12 patients were affected in the second (mortality rate: 8.3%). Extensive infection control measures were implemented in both outbreaks and were successful in preventing further cross-transmission. CONCLUSION: There was significant learning from both outbreaks and actions implemented with the aim of reducing the likelihood and impact of future outbreaks.


id: cord-285760-y37ji92k
author: Connell, Anna R.
date: 2020-09-18
txt: ./txt/cord-285760-y37ji92k.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-285760-y37ji92k.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33072071/
doi: 10.3389/fimmu.2020.02089
summary:
  Although a rise in IgG titer may also not occur in vaccinated individuals (87, 137) , numerous studies have documented a rapid, variable increase in mumps-specific IgG levels, with neutralization antibody concentrations present up to 10 months post-infection (130, 138, 139) . Potential waning immunity has been documented in the current mumps outbreaks seen in Europe and the USA, mostly affecting young adults within highly vaccinated populations attending tertiary education who have received two doses of the MMR vaccine in early childhood (40, 110, 126, 144, 145, (175) (176) (177) (178) (179) (180) (181) . Although MuV can be clinically asymptomatic in about 15-30% of those who become infected, the vaccine against mumps confers protection in a dose response manner; unvaccinated individuals saw an attack rate of Based on the reduction seen upon the introduction of a mumps vaccine, it has been proposed that MMR vaccination also prevents the transmission of the virus.

title:
  Mumps Outbreaks in Vaccinated Populations—Is It Time to Re-assess the Clinical Efficacy of Vaccines?

abstract:
  History illustrates the remarkable public health impact of mass vaccination, by dramatically improving life expectancy and reducing the burden of infectious diseases and co-morbidities worldwide. It has been perceived that if an individual adhered to the MMR vaccine schedule that immunity to mumps virus (MuV) would be lifelong. Recent mumps outbreaks in individuals who had received two doses of the Measles Mumps Rubella (MMR) vaccine has challenged the efficacy of the MMR vaccine. However, clinical symptoms, complications, viral shedding and transmission associated with mumps infection has been shown to be reduced in vaccinated individuals, demonstrating a benefit of this vaccine. Therefore, the question of what constitutes a good mumps vaccine and how its impact is assessed in this modern era remains to be addressed. Epidemiology of the individuals most affected by the outbreaks (predominantly young adults) and variance in the circulating MuV genotype have been well-described alluding to a collection of influences such as vaccine hesitancy, heterogeneous vaccine uptake, primary, and/or secondary vaccine failures. This review aims to discuss in detail the interplay of factors thought to be contributing to the current mumps outbreaks seen in highly vaccinated populations. In addition, how mumps diagnoses has progressed and impacted the understanding of mumps infection since a mumps vaccine was first developed, the limitations of current laboratory tests in confirming protection in vaccinated individuals and how vaccine effectiveness is quantified are also considered. By highlighting knowledge gaps within this area, this state-of-the-art review proposes a change of perspective regarding the impact of a vaccine in a highly vaccinated population from a clinical, diagnostic and public perspective, highlighting a need for a paradigm shift on what is considered vaccine immunity.


id: cord-286029-rafcdzhm
title: The potential of targeted antibody prophylaxis in SARS outbreak control: A mathematic analysis()
author: Bogaards, Johannes Antonie
date: 2006-05-05
txt: ./txt/cord-286029-rafcdzhm.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-286029-rafcdzhm.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/pii/S1477893906000202
doi: 10.1016/j.tmaid.2006.01.007
summary:
  METHOD: We developed a mathematical model to investigate the effects of hospital admission and targeted antibody prophylaxis on the reproduction number R, defined as the number of secondary cases generated by an index case, during different SARS outbreak scenarios. RESULTS: Assuming a basic reproduction number R(0)=3, admission of patients to hospital within 4.3 days of symptom onset is necessary to achieve outbreak control without the need to further reduce community-based transmission. Based on our model, we derived an expression for the effective reproduction number of SARS to study conditions for containment and we explored how the size and duration of an outbreak depend on the efficacy of control. Given functions for the distribution of onset-to-admission time and transmission rate before the implementation of public health measures, we define the basic reproduction number R 0 as the average number of secondary cases before intervention is in place.

abstract:
  BACKGROUND: Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) coronavirus-like viruses continue to circulate in animal reservoirs. If new mutants of SARS coronavirus do initiate another epidemic, administration of prophylactic antibodies to risk groups may supplement the stringent isolation procedures that contained the first SARS outbreak. METHOD: We developed a mathematical model to investigate the effects of hospital admission and targeted antibody prophylaxis on the reproduction number R, defined as the number of secondary cases generated by an index case, during different SARS outbreak scenarios. RESULTS: Assuming a basic reproduction number R(0)=3, admission of patients to hospital within 4.3 days of symptom onset is necessary to achieve outbreak control without the need to further reduce community-based transmission. Control may be enhanced by providing pre-exposure prophylaxis to contacts of hospitalized patients, and through contact tracing and provision of post-exposure prophylaxis. Antibody prophylaxis may also be employed to reduce R below one and thereby restrict outbreak size and duration. CONCLUSIONS: Patient isolation alone can be sufficient to control SARS outbreaks provided that the time from onset to admission is short. Antibody prophylaxis as supplemental measure generally allows for containment of higher R(0) values and restricts both the size and duration of an outbreak.


id: cord-286565-bmcsyfz9
author: Akdeniz, Gulsum
date: 2020-07-15
txt: ./txt/cord-286565-bmcsyfz9.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-286565-bmcsyfz9.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32760303/
doi: 10.3389/fpsyt.2020.00695
summary:
  This study aims to assess the spread and frequency of protective behaviors, emotional and anxiety status among the Turkish population using a rapid survey during the COVID-19 outbreak. Respondents were asked about about (i) demographic and epidemiological information, (ii) protective behaviors to prevent catching the coronavirus, (iii) different emotions and thoughts caused by the COVID-19 outbreak, (iv) anxiety status during the COVID-19 outbreak, and (v) exposure to COVID-19 Outbreak on TV. So, the current study aimed to determine the prevalence and distribution of anxiety and emotional status and protective behaviors among the young Turkish population and examine their associations with media exposure using a rapid assessment during the COVID-19 outbreak. So, the current study aimed to determine the prevalence and distribution of anxiety and emotional status and protective behaviors among the young Turkish population and examine their associations with media exposure using a rapid assessment during the COVID-19 outbreak.

title:
  A Survey of Attitudes, Anxiety Status, and Protective Behaviors of the University Students During the COVID-19 Outbreak in Turkey

abstract:
  A new coronavirus disease began on 31 December 2019 in Wuhan/China and has caused a global outbreak in only a few months resulting in millions being infected. In conjunction with its’ physical side effects, this outbreak also has a tremendous impact on psychology health. This study aims to assess the spread and frequency of protective behaviors, emotional and anxiety status among the Turkish population using a rapid survey during the COVID-19 outbreak. An online questionnaire was administered to 3,040 respondents between the ages of 18–30. This cross-sectional study was conducted from Apr 2 to Apr 8, 2020. While questions related to the outbreak were created by members of our neuroscience department, the Turkish version of the Abbreviated Beck Anxiety Inventory was included in our survey to measure anxiety status. Pearson correlation coefficient was used for statistical analysis. We found that 90% of respondents report washing hands more frequently since the outbreak while %50 wear protective gloves. Respondents were more fearful of their relatives catching the coronavirus disease than they were of themselves catching it. In response to the question, “What are your emotions about the coronavirus?”, 38% responded with “worried”. There was a significant correlation between anxiety status and consumption information from the media about COVID-19. Individual early protection behaviors might slow transmission of the outbreak. Our results showed that the behavior of the participants has changed in predictable ways during the COVID-19 outbreak. Understanding how emotional responses such as fear and anxiety status vary and the specific factors that mediate it may help with the design of outbreak control strategies.


id: cord-286844-kxhp58my
author: Hansen, S.
date: 2007-04-30
txt: ./txt/cord-286844-kxhp58my.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-286844-kxhp58my.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0195670107000114
doi: 10.1016/j.jhin.2006.12.018
summary:
  Summary A total closure of an affected medical department is one of the most expensive infection control measures during investigation of a nosocomial outbreak. Summary A total closure of an affected medical department is one of the most expensive infection control measures during investigation of a nosocomial outbreak. Furthermore, almost every nosocomial outbreak will increase the costs for the affected medical department especially when a total closure of the unit is considered. For all outbreaks in which ''closure'' was applied, the following data were obtained: (a) the type of medical department; (b) the degree of closure, e.g. part of the unit, the entire unit, or multiple units; (c) the species of the nosocomial pathogen; (d) the most probable source of the outbreak; (e) the route of transmission; (f) the distribution of outbreak-associated nosocomial infections. Tables IIIeV summarize the data on the source of the outbreak, the mode of pathogen transmission, and the distribution of nosocomial infections that finally led to closure of the ward.

title:
  Closure of medical departments during nosocomial outbreaks: data from a systematic analysis of the literature

abstract:
  Summary A total closure of an affected medical department is one of the most expensive infection control measures during investigation of a nosocomial outbreak. However, until now there has been no systematic analysis of typical characteristics of outbreaks, for which closure was considered necessary. This article presents data on features of such nosocomial epidemics published during the past 40 years in the medical literature. A search of the Outbreak Database (1561 nosocomial outbreaks in file) revealed a total of 194 outbreaks that ended up with some kind of closure of the unit (median closure time: 14 days). Closure rates (CRs) were calculated and stratified for medical departments, for causative pathogens, for outbreak sources, and for the assumed mode of transmission. Data were then compared to the overall average CR of 12.4% in the entire database. Wards in geriatric patient care were closed significantly more frequently (CR: 30.3%; P <0.001) whereas paediatric wards showed a significantly lower CR (6.1%; P =0.03). Pathogen species with the highest CR were norovirus (44.1%; P <0.001) and influenza/parainfluenza virus (38.5%; P <0.001). If patients were the source of the outbreak, the CR was significantly increased (16.7%; P =0.03). Infections of the central nervous system were most often associated with closure of the ward (24.2%; P =001). A systematic evaluation of nosocomial outbreaks can be a valuable tool for education of staff in the absence of an outbreak, but may be even more helpful for potentially cost-intensive decisions in the acute outbreak setting on the ward.


id: cord-288187-84oj3xtp
title: Forensic public health: epidemiological and microbiological investigations for biosecurity
author: Khan, Ali S.
date: 2019-12-06
txt: ./txt/cord-288187-84oj3xtp.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-288187-84oj3xtp.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B9780128153796000088
doi: 10.1016/b978-0-12-815379-6.00008-8
summary:
  Microbial forensics combines epidemiology with genomic and microbiologic methods, to identify, characterize, and ascribe the cause of an incident resulting from the intentional or unintentional release of a harmful pathogen. The specific objectives of epidemiology (Gordis, 1996) are to (i) determine the extent of disease present in the community; (ii) identify the etiology or cause of a disease and the factors that increase a person''s risk for disease; (iii) study the natural history and prognosis of disease; (iv) evaluate new preventive and therapeutic measures and new modes of healthcare delivery; and (v) provide a foundation for developing public policy and regulations. Microbial forensics combines epidemiology with genomic and microbiologic methods, to identify, characterize, and ascribe the cause of an incident resulting from the intentional or unintentional release of a harmful pathogen (Rasko et al., 2011) . Forensic public health: epidemiological and microbiological investigations for biosecurity stated that genome editing research on pathogens with pandemic potential may pose a national security risk if not regulated.

abstract:
  Deliberate dissemination of a biological agent via several different routes presents the latest challenge to global public health security. Novel pathogens and transmission methods can easily be exploited to cause disease outbreaks. Advancements in molecular biology that make it possible to genetically modify, edit, or disrupt the genome of pathogens increase the disease risk of an accidental or intentional release of pathogens with pandemic potential. The occurrence of a disease at more than an endemic level may stimulate an investigation to determine the source of the disease, who has the disease, when it occurred, and how it spreads. When intentional release of pathogens is suspected, investigators have the additional task of attributing the outbreak not only to a pathogen but also to a human source. The deliberate nature of such dissemination may be obvious. However, some forms of bioterrorism may be more covert, requiring molecular methods to uncover. The field of microbial forensics emerged following the anthrax attack in the United States in 2001 to extend epidemiologic principles to aid in the investigation of bioterrorism incidents. Microbial forensics combines epidemiology with genomic and microbiologic methods, to identify, characterize, and ascribe the cause of an incident resulting from the intentional or unintentional release of a harmful pathogen. Unlike routine epidemiologic investigations, microbial forensic investigations are undertaken when there is a potential crime due to the release of a pathogen with disease-causing potential. The investigation is conducted to attribute cause to a source based on indisputable evidence and is used to support criminal charges against the perpetrator(s). However, because bioterrorism may be unannounced, the initial investigation will start the same as to any public health incident of concern. This chapter discusses how epidemiology integrated with laboratory science can be used to identify the source of diseases caused by microorganisms or toxins—especially for attribution purposes.


id: cord-289305-mfjyjjer
author: Lee, Min Hye
date: 2020-03-10
txt: ./txt/cord-289305-mfjyjjer.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-289305-mfjyjjer.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32155208/
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0229911
summary:
  title: A systematic review on the causes of the transmission and control measures of outbreaks in long-term care facilities: Back to basics of infection control Three studies on gastrointestinal infection, in which adherence to hand hygiene among HCWs was crucial to prevent its spread, reported control measures including stringent hand hygiene practice and reinforcement of standard precautions [23, 27, 31] . The study on the RSV and HMPV outbreak reported various measures including active surveillance, isolation, contact precaution, antiviral prophylaxis for residents and work restriction for ill staff to control respiratory pathogen transmission [50] . This update for understanding outbreaks in LTCFs by reviewing recent studies indicates that staff members and residents are still at risk for contagious disease outbreaks including influenza, gastroenteritis, and GAS infection. Influenza outbreak control practices and the effectiveness of interventions in long-term care facilities: a systematic review

title:
  A systematic review on the causes of the transmission and control measures of outbreaks in long-term care facilities: Back to basics of infection control

abstract:
  BACKGROUND: The unique characteristics of long-term care facilities (LTCFs) including host factors and living conditions contribute to the spread of contagious pathogens. Control measures are essential to interrupt the transmission and to manage outbreaks effectively. AIM: The aim of this systematic review was to verify the causes and problems contributing to transmission and to identify control measures during outbreaks in LTCFs. METHODS: Four electronic databases were searched for articles published from 2007 to 2018. Articles written in English reporting outbreaks in LTCFs were included. The quality of the studies was assessed using the risk-of-bias assessment tool for nonrandomized studies. FINDINGS: A total of 37 studies were included in the qualitative synthesis. The most commonly reported single pathogen was influenza virus, followed by group A streptococcus (GAS). Of the studies that identified the cause, about half of them noted outbreaks transmitted via person-to-person. Suboptimal infection control practice including inadequate decontamination and poor hand hygiene was the most frequently raised issue propagating transmission. Especially, lapses in specific care procedures were linked with outbreaks of GAS and hepatitis B and C viruses. About 60% of the included studies reported affected cases among staff, but only a few studies implemented work restriction during outbreaks. CONCLUSIONS: This review indicates that the violation of basic infection control practice could be a major role in introducing and facilitating the spread of contagious diseases in LTCFs. It shows the need to promote compliance with basic practices of infection control to prevent outbreaks in LTCFs.


id: cord-290264-pv7ijdnx
title: A Primer on Biodefense Data Science for Pandemic Preparedness
author: Perakslis, Eric
date: 2020-04-10
txt: ./txt/cord-290264-pv7ijdnx.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-290264-pv7ijdnx.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32572397/
doi: 10.1016/j.patter.2020.100018
summary:
  1 This piece will dig deeper into biodefense policy as well as suggest specific actions that the data science community can take to contribute to COVID-19 resilience, response, and recovery efforts. Starting at the top and looking more deeply into risk and resilience in the United States, much of the policy stems from the Homeland Security Presidential Directive 21, which outlines the policy and strategy for public health and medical preparedness. This outbreak is past the point of prevention, and the response must now focus on minimizing the effects as people get sick. A toolset that I have personally used over the years for rapid development and deployment is CommCare by Dimagi, and they have already built a toolkit and guide specifically for COVID-19 outbreak response. 8 My last trip during that outbreak focused upon rebuilding local infrastructure to enable the local health systems to get back to full operation, including the possibility of an Ebola-infected patient presenting and seeking care.

abstract:
  The coronavirus outbreak is sweeping the globe with outbreaks reported on every continent except Antarctica as of March 2020. Data scientists are uniquely and diversely skilled in ways that can be highly effective in minimizing, combatting, and recovering from the impacts of the COVID-19 outbreak. In this Opinion, the basics of biodefense as well as specific opportunities for the data science community to contribute are discussed.


id: cord-291238-myjyw8ei
title: Rhinovirus Outbreaks in Long-term Care Facilities, Ontario, Canada
author: Longtin, Jean
date: 2010-09-17
txt: ./txt/cord-291238-myjyw8ei.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-291238-myjyw8ei.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20735934/
doi: 10.3201/eid1609.100476
summary:
  Although the most commonly identifi ed viruses have been infl uenza virus and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) (1), human rhinovirus (HRV) is being increasingly associated with severe respiratory disease and outbreaks in these facilities (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) . As a result, the number of outbreaks caused by HRV in long-term care facilities, and the associated illness and death, may be substantially underestimated. During the surveillance period, 297 respiratory disease outbreaks in long-term care facilities were reported to the Ontario Public Health Laboratory; we received samples from 269 facilities (Table 1) . We cautiously assume that HRV was the causative organism for 174 (59%) of the 297 respiratory outbreaks in long-term care facilities in Ontario during the surveillance period. Neighbor-joining phylogenetic tree of human rhinoviruses (HRV) isolated from 4 respiratory disease outbreaks with associated deaths in long-term care facilities, Ontario, Canada.

abstract:
  Diagnostic difficulties may have led to underestimation of rhinovirus infections in long-term care facilities. Using surveillance data, we found that rhinovirus caused 59% (174/297) of respiratory outbreaks in these facilities during 6 months in 2009. Disease was sometimes severe. Molecular diagnostic testing can differentiate these outbreaks from other infections such as influenza.


id: cord-291382-vo9bemg1
title: Case Studies
author: Ryan, Jeffrey R.
date: 2016-03-25
txt: ./txt/cord-291382-vo9bemg1.txt
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mime: text/plain
url: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B9780128020296000074
doi: 10.1016/b978-0-12-802029-6.00007-4
summary:
  Specifically, the chapter provides details on the Sverdlovsk anthrax incident (1979); the Rajneeshee Salmonella incident (1984); the Surat, India pneumonic plague outbreak (1994); the Fallen Angel ricin incidents (2003–04); Amerithrax (2001); and the outbreak of Ebola virus in West Africa (2014–15). In addition, each case study presented herein shows how confounding these outbreaks can be to public health officials and how fear, panic, and social disruption may ensue. The reports of a possible anthrax outbreak in Sverdlovsk, linked to an incident at a suspected Soviet biological warfare facility, served to further deepen already worsening US-Soviet relations, which were heading back toward a new Cold War in the wake of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. By the time the first CDC officers began to arrive, the county health department had already confirmed 60 cases of Salmonella enterica serotype Typhimurium from the outbreak.

abstract:
  Chapter 7 presents six case studies that should provoke the reader to delve more into the particulars of each incident. Specifically, the chapter provides details on the Sverdlovsk anthrax incident (1979); the Rajneeshee Salmonella incident (1984); the Surat, India pneumonic plague outbreak (1994); the Fallen Angel ricin incidents (2003–04); Amerithrax (2001); and the outbreak of Ebola virus in West Africa (2014–15). Each of these incidents help illustrate the difference between an unusual natural outbreak and one due to an intentional act. In addition, each case study presented herein shows how confounding these outbreaks can be to public health officials and how fear, panic, and social disruption may ensue.


id: cord-293221-gf9wy4a9
author: Idowu, Abiodun Benjamin
date: 2020-08-31
txt: ./txt/cord-293221-gf9wy4a9.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-293221-gf9wy4a9.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32867755/
doi: 10.1186/s12889-020-09441-7
summary:
  It is on this basis that this study was conducted to (assess) the knowledge, perceptions, beliefs and preventive practices against EVD in a predominantly agrarian rural community in Southwest Nigeria. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional study conducted in Igbogila town, Yewa North Local Government Area of Ogun State, Southwest Nigeria in the latter part of 2014 during the EVD outbreak. However, a closer look at past EVD outbreaks revealed that they often originated from rural agrarian communities where there are many misconceptions about the disease, refusal of early isolation and quarantine, and unsafe burial rites practices which aggravate epidemics [8, 9] . No case of EVD was recorded in the study area during the outbreak, nevertheless the limited data provides relevant information useful to researchers and other public health stakeholders in infectious disease prevention and control. Study on public knowledge, attitudes and practices relating to Ebola virus disease prevention and medical care in Sierra Leone

title:
  Ebola virus disease in the eyes of a rural, agrarian community in Western Nigeria: a mixed method study

abstract:
  BACKGROUND: Ebola virus disease (EVD) is a severe hemorrhagic disease caused by Ebola virus. Several outbreaks have been reported in Africa and often originated from remote agrarian communities where there are enormous misconceptions of the disease, refusal of early isolation and quarantine, and unsafe burial rites practices which aggravates the epidemics. It is on this basis that this study was conducted to (assess) the knowledge, perceptions, beliefs and preventive practices against EVD in a predominantly agrarian rural community in Southwest Nigeria. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional study conducted in Igbogila town, Yewa North Local Government Area of Ogun State, Southwest Nigeria in the latter part of 2014 during the EVD outbreak. Mixed methods were used for data collection. Quantitative data collection was done using a pre-tested interviewer administered questionnaire. Four hundred and seven respondents selected by multi-stage sampling technique were interviewed. Descriptive and inferential statistics were done, and the level of significance was set at 0.05. Qualitative data collection involved four focus group discussions a year after the epidemic was declared over in the country. The discussions were recorded, transcribed and analyzed along major themes. RESULTS: All respondents were aware of EVD with radio and television being the major sources of information. Knowledge of the disease was however very poor with many misconceptions and it was significantly influenced by educational level of respondent. EVD survivors will be welcomed back into the community by few residents (36.8%) and a much fewer proportion (27.2%) will freely entertain a survivor in their house. Most would prefer local herbalists over orthodox medical practitioners to care for their loved one in case they contract EVD. Although respondents knew that burying a victim is dangerous, they opposed cremation. CONCLUSION: There was poor knowledge of EVD with a lot of misconceptions. Community members were not pro-active about prevention with dire consequences in the event of an outbreak. Continuous public education should be done via mass media, traditional institutions and other community-based channels as part of emergency preparedness.


id: cord-295761-ze2hnddp
title: COVID-19 outbreak in Greece has passed its rising inflection point and stepping into its peak
author: Georgiou, Harris V
date: 2020-04-20
txt: ./txt/cord-295761-ze2hnddp.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-295761-ze2hnddp.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.15.20066712
doi: 10.1101/2020.04.15.20066712
summary:
  A short review of the timeline and the pathology of the virus are presented briefly; next, data analytics on the outbreak on the national level are providing hints and baseline parameters of the epidemic in Greece; the SEIR-like approach is introduced as a standard tool for modelling and predicting the outlook and the general outline of the next-day mitigation strategies; finally, a general discussion is made on how the pandemic evolves and how to address the challenges that lie ahead. The data analytics, best-fit model parameters and projected outcomes for Greece, as presented in the previous sections, provide solid evidence that the COVID-19 outbreak at the national level can be tracked with adequate accuracy for the general assessment of the situation, including the transition through the phases of the epidemic.

abstract:
  Since the beginning of 2020, COVID-19 is the most urgent and challenging task for the international scientific community, in order to identify its behaviour, track its progress and plan effective mitigation policies. In this study, Greece is the main focus for assessing the national outbreak and estimating the general trends and outlook of it. Multiple data analytics procedures, spectral decomposition and curve-fitting formulations are developed based on the data available at hand. Standard SIEQRDP epidemic modelling is applied for Greece and for the general region around it, providing hints for the outbreak progression in the mid- and long-term, for various infections under-reporting rates. The overall short-term outlook for Greece seems to be towards positive, with a downward trend in infections rate daily increase (i.e., now beyond the exponential growth rate), a possible peak within a few days beyond April 14th, as well as the high availability level of ICU w.r.t. expected demand at peak. On the negative side, the fade-out period seems to be in the order of several months, with high probability of recurrent surges of the outbreak. The mitigation policies for the `next day' should be focused on close tracking of the epidemic via large-scale tests, strict border checking in international travelling and an adaptive plan for selective activation of mitigation measures when deemed necessary.


id: cord-298678-hjxph9jm
title: Viral Contamination of Food
author: Petrović, T.
date: 2016-02-05
url: https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/pii/B978012800723500005X
doi: 10.1016/b978-0-12-800723-5.00005-x
abstract:
  A review of the relevant foodborne viruses is presented. Published data from scientific journals as well as the data presented in official reports and published on the Internet were used for this review. In the review, information is given for the main foodborne viruses, implicated virus species, and food matrices involved, some history data are given, as well as modes of transmission, and sources of the virus presence in food. Results of surveys on the presence of viruses in different kind of foods commodities (fresh produces and shellfish) and in some cases connections to caused outbreaks are presented. Also, possible zoonotic infection and implicated viruses that could be transmitted through food are given. Human Norovirus followed by hepatitis A virus are the most common foodborne viruses, which are transmitted by food consumed raw, such as shellfish, fresh vegetables, and berry fruit. In developed countries, hepatitis E virus is increasingly being recognized as an emerging viral foodborne pathogen that includes zoonotic transmission via pork products. The existing knowledge gaps and the major future expectations in the detection and surveillance of foodborne viruses are mentioned.


id: cord-298870-22lf1cp5
title: Control Measures Used during Lymphogranuloma Venereum Outbreak, Europe
author: Timen, Aura
date: 2008-04-17
txt: ./txt/cord-298870-22lf1cp5.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-298870-22lf1cp5.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18394274/
doi: 10.3201/eid1404.061583
summary:
  The resurgence of LGV in Europe contained many features similar to an infectious disease emergency: it occurred unexpectedly; there was delay in the recognition of cases, which allowed the disease to spread within the risk group; and there was no preconceived outbreak control plan. The third section included 9 questions about the content of outbreak control measures (i.e., case identifi cation, case defi nitions, laboratory confi rmation, treatment, reporting, and interventions for health professionals and the groups at risk). Emerging Infectious Diseases • www.cdc.gov/eid • Vol. 14, No. 4, April 2008 However, in the management of LGV patients, differences were seen between countries with respect to case defi nitions, laboratory testing, and antimicrobial drug treatment. Because only 1 of these new European Union member countries completed the questionnaire, it was also impossible to assess how outbreak control measures were developed and implemented.

abstract:
  To assess the response to the reemergence of lymphogranuloma venereum, we conducted a cross-sectional survey by administering a structured questionnaire to representatives from 26 European countries. Responses were received from 18 countries. The ability to respond quickly and the measures used for outbreak detection and control varied. Evidence-based criteria were not consistently used to develop recommendations. We did not develop criteria to determine the effectiveness of the recommendations. The degree of preparedness for an unexpected outbreak, as well as the ability of countries to respond quickly to alerts, varied, which indicates weaknesses in the ability to control an outbreak. More guidance is needed to implement and evaluate control measures used during international outbreaks.


id: cord-298941-xf2ukinp
author: Al-Abdallat, Mohammad Mousa
date: 2014-05-14
txt: ./txt/cord-298941-xf2ukinp.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-298941-xf2ukinp.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24829216/
doi: 10.1093/cid/ciu359
summary:
  BACKGROUND: In April 2012, the Jordan Ministry of Health investigated an outbreak of lower respiratory illnesses at a hospital in Jordan; 2 fatal cases were retrospectively confirmed by real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) to be the first detected cases of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS-CoV). Following the discovery of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in September 2012 [2] , specimens from the 2 fatal cases in Jordan were retrospectively tested and both yielded positive results for MERS-CoV by real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR), and were reported to the World Health Organization (WHO). Using newly developed serologic assays to determine MERS-CoV antibody responses among case contacts in this outbreak, epidemiologists from the JMoH, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and regional partners conducted a retrospective seroepidemiologic investigation to (1) confirm whether surviving outbreak members had presence of antibodies to MERS-CoV, (2) ascertain whether viral transmission occurred among household contacts or to other healthcare personnel, and (3) describe the clinical features of all detected MERS-CoV infections in Jordan.

title:
  Hospital-Associated Outbreak of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus: A Serologic, Epidemiologic, and Clinical Description

abstract:
  BACKGROUND: In April 2012, the Jordan Ministry of Health investigated an outbreak of lower respiratory illnesses at a hospital in Jordan; 2 fatal cases were retrospectively confirmed by real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) to be the first detected cases of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS-CoV). METHODS: Epidemiologic and clinical characteristics of selected potential cases were assessed through serum blood specimens, medical record reviews, and interviews with surviving outbreak members, household contacts, and healthcare personnel. Cases of MERS-CoV infection were identified using 3 US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention serologic tests for detection of anti–MERS-CoV antibodies. RESULTS: Specimens and interviews were obtained from 124 subjects. Seven previously unconfirmed individuals tested positive for anti–MERS-CoV antibodies by at least 2 of 3 serologic tests, in addition to 2 fatal cases identified by rRT-PCR. The case-fatality rate among the 9 total cases was 22%. Six subjects were healthcare workers at the outbreak hospital, yielding an attack rate of 10% among potentially exposed outbreak hospital personnel. There was no evidence of MERS-CoV transmission at 2 transfer hospitals having acceptable infection control practices. CONCLUSIONS: Novel serologic tests allowed for the detection of otherwise unrecognized cases of MERS-CoV infection among contacts in a Jordanian hospital-associated respiratory illness outbreak in April 2012, resulting in a total of 9 test-positive cases. Serologic results suggest that further spread of this outbreak to transfer hospitals did not occur. Most subjects had no major, underlying medical conditions; none were on hemodialysis. Our observed case-fatality rate was lower than has been reported from outbreaks elsewhere.


id: cord-300301-7amiljnm
title: Emerging and Reemerging Infectious Disease Threats
author: Clements, Bruce W.
date: 2016-03-04
txt: ./txt/cord-300301-7amiljnm.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-300301-7amiljnm.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/pii/B9780128019801000106
doi: 10.1016/b978-0-12-801980-1.00010-6
summary:
  Factors contributing to the emergence of diseases include increasing international travel and commerce, changes in human demographics and behavior, advances in technology and industry, microbial adaptation and the breakdown of public health systems. These include: rapid epidemiologic surveillance and investigations to characterize the disease; transmission prevention through containment and control measures; development and deployment of medical countermeasures; and emergency public information and warning. By April 26, a public health emergency, the first in the history of the United States, was declared to allow for the rapid development of a vaccine, mobilization of antiviral medications through the federally resourced Strategic National Stockpile, and enhanced surveillance through reporting and testing. While it may not be possible to predict which pathogens may emerge or reemerge, it is possible to build infrastructure and take general steps to make populations and public health systems better prepared for the next novel infectious disease outbreak.

abstract:
  This chapter describes the potential public health impact of emerging and reemerging disease. Factors contributing to the emergence of diseases include increasing international travel and commerce, changes in human demographics and behavior, advances in technology and industry, microbial adaptation and the breakdown of public health systems. Of emerging diseases, 60% are zoonotic, making the human–animal biome interaction critical. Preparedness for an emerging disease relies on strong biosurveillance systems for early detection. Control measures to prevent transmission must be implemented early. These include: rapid epidemiologic surveillance and investigations to characterize the disease; transmission prevention through containment and control measures; development and deployment of medical countermeasures; and emergency public information and warning. Recovery after the outbreak of an emerging disease can result in a “new normal” with persistent endemic infection in the community.


id: cord-306332-ug6pare2
author: Chen, Ze-Liang
date: 2020-05-05
txt: ./txt/cord-306332-ug6pare2.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-306332-ug6pare2.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32118641/
doi: 10.1097/cm9.0000000000000776
abstract: nan
summary:
  title: From severe acute respiratory syndrome-associated coronavirus to 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak: similarities in the early epidemics and prediction of future trends [1, 2] The 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) caused a pneumonia outbreak, which is spreading around the country and has affected 32 provinces and regions of China as of January 27, 2020. [14, 15] Subsequent case investigations also showed that SARS-CoV had the capability to multiply and continuously undergo human-to-human transmission [Supplementary Figure 2C , http://links.lww.com/CM9/ A209]; at least four generations of cases were identified from one original patient. [18] On January 19, 2020, a cluster of cases, including 15 healthcare workers, were confirmed to have been infected via patients, confirming that 2019-nCoV also has humanto-human transmission capability. Transmission and epidemiological characteristics of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infected pneumonia (COVID-19): preliminary evidence obtained in comparison with 2003-SARS

title:
  From severe acute respiratory syndrome-associated coronavirus to 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak: similarities in the early epidemics and prediction of future trends


id: cord-307990-skrye40w
title: Fatal Respiratory Infections Associated with Rhinovirus Outbreak, Vietnam
author: Hai, Le Thanh
date: 2012-11-17
txt: ./txt/cord-307990-skrye40w.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-307990-skrye40w.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23092635/
doi: 10.3201/eid1811.120607
summary:
  During an outbreak of severe acute respiratory infections in 2 orphanages, Vietnam, 7/12 hospitalized children died. During an outbreak of severe acute respiratory infections in 2 orphanages, Vietnam, 7/12 hospitalized children died. Human rhinovirus (HRV), a common cause of mild upper respiratory tract infections, may also cause severe ARI in children. Of children whose specimens were tested by RT-PCR, 98% (42/43) of the infants from the outbreak orphanage had at least 1 symptom of respiratory tract infection compared with 14 (35%) of 40 infants at the control orphanage. Several children (not hospitalized) from the outbreak orphanage were also infected with HRVs from the C cluster. We found that HRV was the main pathogen detected in an outbreak of severe ARI in children living in an orphanage in Vietnam. Our fi ndings support recent studies showing that HRV may be associated with severe respiratory tract infection in infants and children (4) (5) (6) .

abstract:
  During an outbreak of severe acute respiratory infections in 2 orphanages, Vietnam, 7/12 hospitalized children died. All hospitalized children and 26/43 children from outbreak orphanages tested positive for rhinovirus versus 9/40 control children (p = 0.0005). Outbreak rhinoviruses formed a distinct genetic cluster. Human rhinovirus is an underappreciated cause of severe pneumonia in vulnerable groups.


id: cord-309497-3v0asfa7
author: Asner, Sandra
date: 2012-02-21
txt: ./txt/cord-309497-3v0asfa7.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-309497-3v0asfa7.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22353417/
doi: 10.1111/j.1750-2659.2012.00336.x
summary:
  ENT/HRV was frequently identified in LTCF outbreaks involving elderly residents, whereas in CSDs, A(H1N1)pdm09 was primarily detected. 1 Recent data reported by Public Health Ontario (PHO) indicated that pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 [A(H1N1)pdm09] was a rare cause of LTCF respiratory outbreaks during the first period of wave I (April 20-June 12, 2009) of the 2009 pandemic. 3 We used surveillance data from the late stage of the first wave and the duration of the second wave periods (June 11-November 30, 2009) to ascertain the impact of A(H1N1)pdm09 and other respiratory viruses on different outbreak settings such as LTCFs and schools. We investigated all respiratory outbreaks in LTCFs and camps, schools, day cares (CSDs) tested at PHO laboratories from June 11 through November 30, 2009, in Ontario, Canada. 10, 11 From June 11 to November 30, 2009, we found that ENT ⁄ HRV was frequently identified in LTCF outbreaks involving elderly residents, whereas in outbreak settings involving children and younger adults, A(H1N1)pdm09 was primarily detected.

title:
  Respiratory viral infections in institutions from late stage of the first and second waves of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009, Ontario, Canada

abstract:
  Please cite this paper as: Asner et al. (2012) Respiratory viral infections in institutions from late stage of the first and second waves of pandemic A (H1N1) 2009, Ontario, Canada. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 6(3), e11–e15. We report the impact of respiratory viruses on various outbreak settings by using surveillance data from the late first and second wave periods of the 2009 pandemic. A total of 278/345(78·5%) outbreaks tested positive for at least one respiratory virus by multiplex PCR. We detected A(H1N1)pdm09 in 20·6% of all reported outbreaks of which 54·9% were reported by camps, schools, and day cares (CSDs) and 29·6% by long‐term care facilities (LCFTs), whereas enterovirus/human rhinovirus (ENT/HRV) accounted for 62% outbreaks of which 83·7% were reported by long‐term care facilities (LCTFs). ENT/HRV was frequently identified in LTCF outbreaks involving elderly residents, whereas in CSDs, A(H1N1)pdm09 was primarily detected.


id: cord-312103-lakwurn0
title: Timeliness of Nongovernmental versus Governmental Global Outbreak Communications
author: Mondor, Luke
date: 2012-07-17
txt: ./txt/cord-312103-lakwurn0.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-312103-lakwurn0.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.3201/eid1807.120249
doi: 10.3201/eid1807.120249
summary:
  To compare the timeliness of nongovernmental and governmental communications of infectious disease outbreaks and evaluate trends for each over time, we investigated the time elapsed from the beginning of an outbreak to public reporting of the event. We found that governmental sources improved the timeliness of public reporting of infectious disease outbreaks during the study period. The median time from estimated outbreak start to initial public communication was 10 days shorter for nongovernmental sources (23 days, 95% CI 20-32) than for governmental sources (33 days, 95% CI 30-45), although this difference was not signifi cant according to the Wilcoxon rank-sum test (p = 0.200) ( Table 1) . Despite these limitations, our data highlight the value of nongovernmental sources as an integral resource for providing timely information about global infectious disease threats, and demonstrate the signifi cant improvements in the timeliness of outbreak reporting made by governmental sources.

abstract:
  To compare the timeliness of nongovernmental and governmental communications of infectious disease outbreaks and evaluate trends for each over time, we investigated the time elapsed from the beginning of an outbreak to public reporting of the event. We found that governmental sources improved the timeliness of public reporting of infectious disease outbreaks during the study period.


id: cord-312319-daiikgth
author: van Velsen, Lex
date: 2014-01-31
txt: ./txt/cord-312319-daiikgth.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-312319-daiikgth.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24479614/
doi: 10.1186/1471-2458-14-100
summary:
  title: Public knowledge and preventive behavior during a large-scale Salmonella outbreak: results from an online survey in the Netherlands During the outbreak, we conducted an online survey (n = 1,057) to assess the general public''s perceptions, knowledge, preventive behavior and sources of information. In this study, we uncovered the general public''s perceptions, knowledge, preventive behavior, and sources of information during a large, national Salmonella outbreak by a large-scale online survey. As a result, we were able to answer our main research question: Which information should health organizations convey during a largescale Salmonella outbreak, and by which channels, to maximize citizen compliance with preventive advice? We developed an online survey to assess the general public''s perceptions, knowledge, preventive behavior, and information use during the 2012 Salmonella Thompson outbreak. Public knowledge and preventive behavior during a large-scale Salmonella outbreak: results from an online survey in the Netherlands

title:
  Public knowledge and preventive behavior during a large-scale Salmonella outbreak: results from an online survey in the Netherlands

abstract:
  BACKGROUND: Food-borne Salmonella infections are a worldwide concern. During a large-scale outbreak, it is important that the public follows preventive advice. To increase compliance, insight in how the public gathers its knowledge and which factors determine whether or not an individual complies with preventive advice is crucial. METHODS: In 2012, contaminated salmon caused a large Salmonella Thompson outbreak in the Netherlands. During the outbreak, we conducted an online survey (n = 1,057) to assess the general public’s perceptions, knowledge, preventive behavior and sources of information. RESULTS: Respondents perceived Salmonella infections and the 2012 outbreak as severe (m = 4.21; five-point scale with 5 as severe). Their knowledge regarding common food sources, the incubation period and regular treatment of Salmonella (gastro-enteritis) was relatively low (e.g., only 28.7% knew that Salmonella is not normally treated with antibiotics). Preventive behavior differed widely, and the majority (64.7%) did not check for contaminated salmon at home. Most information about the outbreak was gathered through traditional media and news and newspaper websites. This was mostly determined by time spent on the medium. Social media played a marginal role. Wikipedia seemed a potentially important source of information. CONCLUSIONS: To persuade the public to take preventive actions, public health organizations should deliver their message primarily through mass media. Wikipedia seems a promising instrument for educating the public about food-borne Salmonella.


id: cord-313616-81u4nidw
author: Davis, G. S.
date: 2014-04-30
url: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhin.2014.01.010
doi: 10.1016/j.jhin.2014.01.010
title:
  Spatial and temporal analyses to investigate infectious disease transmission within healthcare settings

abstract:
  Summary Background Healthcare-associated infections (HCAIs) cause significant morbidity and mortality worldwide, and outbreaks are often only identified after they reach high levels. A wide range of data is collected within healthcare settings; however, the extent to which this information is used to understand HCAI dynamics has not been quantified. Aim To examine the use of spatiotemporal analyses to identify and prevent HCAI transmission in healthcare settings, and to provide recommendations for expanding the use of these techniques. Methods A systematic review of the literature was undertaken, focusing on spatiotemporal examination of infectious diseases in healthcare settings. Abstracts and full-text articles were reviewed independently by two authors to determine inclusion. Findings In total, 146 studies met the inclusion criteria. There was considerable variation in the use of data, with surprisingly few studies (N = 22) using spatiotemporal-specific analyses to extend knowledge of HCAI transmission dynamics. The remaining 124 studies were descriptive. A modest increase in the application of statistical analyses has occurred in recent years. Conclusion The incorporation of spatiotemporal analysis has been limited in healthcare settings, with only 15% of studies including any such analysis. Analytical studies provided greater data on transmission dynamics and effective control interventions than studies without spatiotemporal analyses. This indicates the need for greater integration of spatiotemporal techniques into HCAI investigations, as even simple analyses provide significant improvements in the understanding of prevention over simple descriptive summaries.


id: cord-313693-qmkrn7pr
title: Possible Role of Aerosol Transmission in a Hospital Outbreak of Influenza
author: Wong, Bonnie C. K.
date: 2010-11-15
txt: ./txt/cord-313693-qmkrn7pr.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-313693-qmkrn7pr.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1086/656743
doi: 10.1086/656743
summary:
  Airflow measurements were conducted, and concentrations of hypothetical virus-laden aerosols at different ward locations were estimated using computational fluid dynamics modeling. A major nosocomial outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) occurred at PWH in 2003 [15, 23] ; since then, all patients hospitalized with acute febrile respiratory illnesses are put on droplet precautions; if influenza is confirmed, the patients will be isolated or cohorted in designated wards [21, 22] . Dispersion of the hypothetical virus-laden aerosols, originated from the index patient''s bed through the entire ward, was analyzed by computational fluid dynamics (CFD) method. In clinical studies, virus-laden particles less than 5-6 mm (ie, within the respirable aerosol fraction) have been detected in exhaled breaths of patients with influenza and in the air sampled from an acute healthcare setting during seasonal peak [19, 35, 36] . In conclusion, our findings suggest a possible role of aerosol transmission of influenza in an acute ward setting.

abstract:
  Background. We examined the role of aerosol transmission of influenza in an acute ward setting. Methods. We investigated a seasonal influenza A outbreak that occurred in our general medical ward (with open bay ward layout) in 2008. Clinical and epidemiological information was collected in real time during the outbreak. Spatiotemporal analysis was performed to estimate the infection risk among patients. Airflow measurements were conducted, and concentrations of hypothetical virus-laden aerosols at different ward locations were estimated using computational fluid dynamics modeling. Results. Nine inpatients were infected with an identical strain of influenza A/H3N2 virus. With reference to the index patient's location, the attack rate was 20.0% and 22.2% in the “same” and “adjacent” bays, respectively, but 0% in the “distant” bay (P=.04). Temporally, the risk of being infected was highest on the day when noninvasive ventilation was used in the index patient; multivariate logistic regression revealed an odds ratio of 14.9 (95% confidence interval, 1.7–131.3; P=.015). A simultaneous, directional indoor airflow blown from the “same” bay toward the “adjacent” bay was found; it was inadvertently created by an unopposed air jet from a separate air purifier placed next to the index patient's bed. Computational fluid dynamics modeling revealed that the dispersal pattern of aerosols originated from the index patient coincided with the bed locations of affected patients. Conclusions. Our findings suggest a possible role of aerosol transmission of influenza in an acute ward setting. Source and engineering controls, such as avoiding aerosol generation and improving ventilation design, may warrant consideration to prevent nosocomial outbreaks.


id: cord-317450-tp2ckb6r
author: Robillard, R.
date: 2020-06-30
url: http://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.06.29.20142638v1?rss=1
doi: 10.1101/2020.06.29.20142638
title:
  Social, Financial and Psychological Stress during an Emerging Pandemic: Observations from a Population Web-Based Survey in the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic

abstract:
  Background Understanding the multifaceted impacts of the Coronavirus-19 (COVID-19) outbreak as it unfolds is crucial to identify the most critical needs and to inform targeted interventions. Methods This population survey study presents cohort characteristics and baseline observations linked to the acute-mid phase of the COVID-19 outbreak in terms of perceived threats and concerns, occupational and financial impacts, social impacts and stress as measured by the Cohen's Perceived Stress Scale (PSS) collected cross-sectionally between April 3 and May 15, 2020. A multivariate linear regression model was used to identify factors associated with stress changes relative to pre-outbreak estimates. Results 6,040/6,685 (90.4%) participants filled out at least 1/3 of the survey and were included in the analyses. On average, PSS scores increased from 12.9+6.8 before the outbreak to 14.9+8.3 during the outbreak (p<0.001). The independent factors associated with stress worsening were: having a mental disorder, female sex, having underage children, heavier alcohol consumption, working with the general public, shorter sleep duration, younger age, less time elapsed since the start of the outbreak, lower stress before the outbreak, worse symptoms that could be linked to COVID-19, lower coping skills, worse obsessive-compulsive symptoms related to germs and contamination, personalities loading on extraversion, conscientiousness and neuroticism, left-wing political views, worse family relationships, and spending less time exercising and doing artistic activities. Interpretation Cross-sectional analyses showed a significant increase from average low to moderate stress during the COVID-19 outbreak. Identified modifiable factors associated with an increase in stress may be informative for intervention development.


id: cord-319647-c4qnwfm9
title: Transmission of viruses through shellfish: when specific ligands come into play
author: Le Guyader, Françoise S
date: 2011-11-25
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22440973/
doi: 10.1016/j.coviro.2011.10.029
abstract:
  Shellfish are known as vectors for human pathogens and despite regulation based on enteric bacteria they are still implicated in viral outbreaks. Among shellfish, oysters are the most common vector of contamination, and the pathogens most frequently involved in these outbreaks are noroviruses, responsible for acute gastroenteritis in humans. Analysis of shellfish-related outbreak data worldwide show an unexpected high proportion of NoV GI strains. Recent studies performed in vitro, in vivo and in the environment indicate that oysters are not just passive filters, but can selectively accumulate norovirus strains based on viral carbohydrate ligands shared with humans. These observations contribute to explain the GI bias observed in shellfish-related outbreaks compared to other outbreaks.


id: cord-320454-dhfl92et
title: Healthcare-associated infections in neonatal units: lessons from contrasting worlds
author: Srivastava, S.
date: 2007-03-12
url: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0195670107000400
doi: 10.1016/j.jhin.2007.01.014
abstract:
  Neonatal intensive care units are vulnerable to outbreaks and sporadic incidents of healthcare-associated infections (HAIs). The incidence and outcome of these infections are determined by the degree of immaturity of the neonatal immune system, invasive procedures involved, the aetiological agent and its antimicrobial susceptibility pattern and, above all, infection control policies practised by the unit. It is important to raise awareness of infection control practices in resource-limited settings, since overdependence upon antimicrobial agents and co-existing lack of awareness of infection control is encouraging the emergence of multi-drug-resistant nosocomial pathogens. We reviewed 125 articles regarding HAIs from both advanced and resource-limited neonatal units in order to study risk factors, aetiological agents, antimicrobial susceptibility patterns and reported successes in infection control interventions. The articles include surveillance studies, outbreaks and sporadic incidents. Gram-positive cocci, viruses and fungi predominate in reports from the advanced units, while Gram-negative enteric rods, non-fermenters and fungi are commonly reported from resource-limited settings. Antimicrobial susceptibility patterns from surveillance studies determined the empirical therapy used in each neonatal unit. Most outbreaks, irrespective of the technical facilities available, were traced to specific lack of infection control practices. We discuss infection control interventions, with special emphasis on their applicability in resource-limited settings. Cost-effective measures for implementing these interventions, with particular reference to the recognition of the role of the microbiologist, the infection control team and antibiotic policies are presented.


id: cord-321098-j3glby40
author: Bodrud-Doza, Md.
date: 2020-06-26
txt: ./txt/cord-321098-j3glby40.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-321098-j3glby40.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32676492/
doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2020.00341
summary:
  Background: The spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, the partial lockdown, the disease intensity, weak governance in the healthcare system, insufficient medical facilities, unawareness, and the sharing of misinformation in the mass media has led to people experiencing fear and anxiety. To understand the possible psychosocial, socio-economic, and environmental impact of the COVID-19 outbreak in Bangladesh, we considered and identified several relevant and possible items based on the socio-economic situation, political analysis, the existing healthcare system, environmental analysis, possible emerging issues utilized from scenario developments, analysis of local and global reports of the COVID-19 pandemic from the print and electronic media, and a literature review. The socioeconomic issues (SEI 10) and immediate emerging issues (IEI2) have a statistically significant positive impact (p < 0.01), e.g., obstruction to the formal education system, and the potentiality of a huge number of people becoming infected may contribute to the fear development of the COVID-19 outbreak in this country.

title:
  Psychosocial and Socio-Economic Crisis in Bangladesh Due to COVID-19 Pandemic: A Perception-Based Assessment

abstract:
  Background: The spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, the partial lockdown, the disease intensity, weak governance in the healthcare system, insufficient medical facilities, unawareness, and the sharing of misinformation in the mass media has led to people experiencing fear and anxiety. The present study intended to conduct a perception-based analysis to get an idea of people's psychosocial and socio-economic crisis, and the possible environmental crisis, amidst the COVID-19 pandemic in Bangladesh. Methods: A perception-based questionnaire was put online for Bangladeshi citizens of 18 years and/or older. The sample size was 1,066 respondents. Datasets were analyzed through a set of statistical techniques including principal component and hierarchical cluster analysis. Results: There was a positive significant association between fear of the COVID-19 outbreak with the struggling healthcare system (p < 0.05) of the country. Also, there was a negative association between the fragile health system of Bangladesh and the government's ability to deal with the pandemic (p < 0.05), revealing the poor governance in the healthcare system. A positive association of shutdown and social distancing with the fear of losing one's own or a family members' life, influenced by a lack of healthcare treatment (p < 0.05), reveals that, due to the decision of shutting down normal activities, people may be experiencing mental and economic stress. However, a positive association of the socio-economic impact of the shutdown with poor people's suffering, the price hike of basic essentials, the hindering of formal education (p < 0.05), and the possibility of a severe socio-economic and health crisis will be aggravated. Moreover, there is a possibility of a climate change-induced disaster and infectious diseases like dengue during/after the COVID-19 situation, which will create severe food insecurity (p < 0.01) and a further healthcare crisis. Conclusions: The partial lockdown in Bangladesh due to the COVID-19 pandemic increased community transmission and worsened the healthcare crisis, economic burden, and loss of GDP despite the resuming of industrial operations. In society, it has created psychosocial and socio-economic insecurity among people due to the loss of lives and livelihoods. The government should take proper inclusive steps for risk assessment, communications, and financial stimulus toward the public to alleviate their fear and anxiety, and to take proper action to boost mental health and well-being.


id: cord-321537-ceehbhcb
title: Reacting to outbreaks at neighboring localities
author: Eksin, C.
date: 2020-04-29
url: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.24.20078808
doi: 10.1101/2020.04.24.20078808
abstract:
  We study the dynamics of epidemics in a networked metapopulation model. In each subpopulation, representing a locality, disease propagates according to a modified susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) dynamics. We assume that individuals reduce their number of contacts as a function of the weighted sum of cumulative number of cases within the locality and in neighboring localities. The susceptible and exposed (pre-symptomatic and infectious) individuals are allowed to travel between localities undetected. To investigate the combined effects of mobility and contact reduction on disease progression within interconnected localities, we consider a scenario with two localities where disease originates in one and is exported to the neighboring locality via travel of undetected pre-symptomatic individuals. We associate the behavior change at the disease-importing locality due to the outbreak size at the origin with the level of preparedness of the locality. Our results show that restricting mobility is valuable if the importing locality is increasing its level of preparedness with respect to the outbreak size at the origin. Moreover, increased levels of preparedness can yield lower total outbreak size by further reducing the outbreak size at the importing locality, even when the response at the origin is weak. Our results highlight that public health decisions on social distancing at localities with less severe outbreaks should strongly account for potential impact of neighbouring localities with a poor response to the outbreak rather than localities with successful responses.


id: cord-322541-yzum868k
author: Moon, Suerie
date: 2015-11-23
url: https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/pii/S0140673615009460
doi: 10.1016/s0140-6736(15)00946-0
abstract: nan
title:
  Will Ebola change the game? Ten essential reforms before the next pandemic. The report of the Harvard-LSHTM Independent Panel on the Global Response to Ebola


id: cord-324230-nu0pn2q8
title: COVID-19 Outbreak Prediction with Machine Learning
author: Ardabili, S. F.
date: 2020-04-22
url: http://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.04.17.20070094v1?rss=1
doi: 10.1101/2020.04.17.20070094
abstract:
  Several outbreak prediction models for COVID-19 are being used by officials around the world to make informed-decisions and enforce relevant control measures. Among the standard models for COVID-19 global pandemic prediction, simple epidemiological and statistical models have received more attention by authorities, and they are popular in the media. Due to a high level of uncertainty and lack of essential data, standard models have shown low accuracy for long-term prediction. Although the literature includes several attempts to address this issue, the essential generalization and robustness abilities of existing models needs to be improved. This paper presents a comparative analysis of machine learning and soft computing models to predict the COVID-19 outbreak. Among a wide range of machine learning models investigated, two models showed promising results (i.e., multi-layered perceptron, MLP, and adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system, ANFIS). Based on the results reported here, and due to the highly complex nature of the COVID-19 outbreak and variation in its behavior from nation-to-nation, this study suggests machine learning as an effective tool to model the outbreak.


id: cord-331060-b3z1zb4t
title: COVID‐19: Lessons to be learnt from a once‐in‐a‐century global pandemic
author: Cruickshank, Marilyn
date: 2020-06-04
url: https://doi.org/10.1111/jocn.15365
doi: 10.1111/jocn.15365
abstract:
  The year 2020 will mark a once‐in‐a‐century global event: the outbreak and pandemic of COVID‐19. On the 31 December 2019 the World Health Organization (WHO) reported a cluster of pneumonia‐like cases of a novel coronavirus zoonosis in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China. The outbreak was due to a new or novel coronavirus, which would later be called Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2).


id: cord-332658-548402bb
author: Brownstein, John S
date: 2008-07-08
txt: ./txt/cord-332658-548402bb.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-332658-548402bb.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.0050151
doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.0050151
summary:
  sources can play an important role in early event detection and support situational awareness by providing current, highly local information about outbreaks, even from areas relatively invisible to traditional global public health efforts. and other nontraditional sources of surveillance data can facilitate early outbreak detection, increase public awareness of disease outbreaks prior to their formal recognition, and provide an integrated and contextualized view of global health information. With the aim of creating an integrated global view of emerging infections based not only on traditional public health datasets but rather on all available information sources, we developed HealthMap, a freely accessible, automated electronic information system for organizing data on outbreaks according to geography, time, and infectious disease agent [16] ( Figure 1 ). Ultimately, the monitoring of diverse media-based sources will augment epidemic intelligence with information derived outside the traditional public health infrastructure, yielding a more comprehensive and timely global view of emerging infectious disease threats.

title:
  Surveillance Sans Frontières: Internet-Based Emerging Infectious Disease Intelligence and the HealthMap Project

abstract:
  John Brownstein and colleagues discuss HealthMap, an automated real-time system that monitors and disseminates online information about emerging infectious diseases.


id: cord-334108-4ey725dv
title: Foodborne viruses and fresh produce
author: Seymour, I.J.
date: 2008-07-07
txt: ./txt/cord-334108-4ey725dv.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-334108-4ey725dv.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11722652/
doi: 10.1046/j.1365-2672.2001.01427.x
abstract: nan
summary:
  The most frequently reported foodborne viral infections are viral gastroenteritis and hepatitis A: both have been associated with the consumption of fresh fruit or vegetables. There are many groups of viruses which could contaminate food items, but the major foodborne viral pathogens are those that infect via the gastrointestinal tract, such as the gastroenteritis viruses and hepatitis A virus. There is a need to develop more effective quantitative methods in order to assess the survival of viruses on fresh produce and to determine the decontamination ef®ciencies of current commercial washing systems for fruit and vegetables. Mounting evidence suggests that viruses can survive long enough and in high enough numbers to cause human diseases through direct contact with polluted water or contaminated foods (Nasser 1994; Bosch 1995) . When hepatitis A virus was detected in lettuce from Costa Rica, it was suggested that the possible source of contamination was the discharge of untreated sewage into river water used to irrigate crops, which is common practice in some less well-developed countries (Hernandez et al.


id: cord-336845-7ofgekoj
title: Effects of COVID-19 on Business and Research
author: Donthu, Naveen
date: 2020-06-09
url: https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/pii/S0148296320303830
doi: 10.1016/j.jbusres.2020.06.008
abstract:
  Abstract The COVID-19 outbreak is a sharp reminder that pandemics, like other rarely occurring catastrophes, have happened in the past and will continue to happen in the future. Even if we cannot prevent dangerous viruses from emerging, we should prepare to dampen their effects on society. The current outbreak has had severe economic consequences across the globe, and it does not look like any country will be unaffected. This not only has consequences for the economy; all of society is affected, which has led to dramatic changes in how businesses act and consumers behave. This special issue is a global effort to address some of the pandemic-related issues affecting society. In total, there are 12 papers that cover different industry sectors (e.g., tourism, retail, higher education), changes in consumer behavior and businesses, ethical issues, and aspects related to employees and leadership.


id: cord-340194-ibli36rq
title: Ebola virus disease: a highly fatal infectious disease reemerging in West Africa
author: To, Kelvin K.W.
date: 2014-11-29
txt: ./txt/cord-340194-ibli36rq.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-340194-ibli36rq.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25456100/
doi: 10.1016/j.micinf.2014.11.007
summary:
  Ebolavirus has been known to cause outbreaks of severe hemorrhagic fever with high fatality in Africa since 1976 [1] . Zaire and Sudan ebolavirus are responsible for most outbreaks, and these species are associated with highest case-fatality rates, ranging from 44e100% and 41e69%, respectively. In addition to clinically apparent EVD outbreaks, seroepidemiology studies showed that there is a high prevalence seropositive individuals, suggesting that asymptomatic or mild infection can occur [15] . The only human case of ebolavirus infection in West Africa before the 2014 outbreak occurred 20 years ago. During the 1976 EVD outbreak, the index case had transmitted the virus to healthcare workers and hospitalized patients with at least 15 generations of person-to-person transmission [29] . Human fatal zaire ebola virus infection is associated with an aberrant innate immunity and with massive lymphocyte apoptosis Analysis of human peripheral blood samples from fatal and nonfatal cases of Ebola (Sudan) hemorrhagic fever: cellular responses, virus load, and nitric oxide levels

abstract:
  Ebolavirus can cause a highly fatal and panic-generating human disease which may jump from bats to other mammals and human. High viral loads in body fluids allow efficient transmission by contact. Lack of effective antivirals, vaccines and public health infrastructures in parts of Africa make it difficult to health workers to contain the outbreak.


id: cord-345727-bcxkycjh
author: Karimata, Yosuke
date: 2018-09-15
txt: ./txt/cord-345727-bcxkycjh.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-345727-bcxkycjh.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29733351/
doi: 10.1093/infdis/jiy261
summary:
  title: Clinical Features of Human Metapneumovirus Pneumonia in Non-Immunocompromised Patients: An Investigation of Three Long-Term Care Facility Outbreaks BACKGROUND: Several studies have reported outbreaks due to human metapneumovirus (hMPV) in long-term care facilities (LTCF) for the elderly. Even though it is usually a mild and self-limiting disease, hMPV can potentially cause severe lower respiratory infections, especially in young children, the elderly, and immunocompromised patients [3] [4] [5] [12] [13] [14] . Several studies have reported outbreaks due to hMPV in long-term care facilities (LTCF) for the elderly and described the high incidence of pneumonia [3] [4] [5] [14] [15] [16] [17] . In conclusion, we report the clinical and radiological features of hMPV pneumonia in non-immunocompromised patients collected from 3 outbreaks in LTCF in Okinawa, Japan. An outbreak of severe respiratory tract infection due to human metapneumovirus in a long-term care facility for the elderly in Oregon

title:
  Clinical Features of Human Metapneumovirus Pneumonia in Non-Immunocompromised Patients: An Investigation of Three Long-Term Care Facility Outbreaks

abstract:
  BACKGROUND: Several studies have reported outbreaks due to human metapneumovirus (hMPV) in long-term care facilities (LTCF) for the elderly. However, most of these reports are epidemiological studies and do not investigate the clinical features of hMPV pneumonia. METHODS: Three independent outbreaks of hMPV occurred at separate LTCF for intellectually challenged and elderly residents. A retrospective evaluation of hMPV pneumonia and its clinical and radiological features was conducted using available medical records and data. RESULTS: In 105 hMPV infections, 49% of patients developed pneumonia. The median age of pneumonia cases was significantly higher than non-pneumonia cases (P < .001). Clinical manifestations of hMPV pneumonia included high fever, wheezing in 43%, and respiratory failure in 31% of patients. An elevated number of white blood cells as well as increased levels of C-reactive protein, creatine phosphokinase, and both aspartate and alanine transaminases was also observed among pneumonia cases. Evaluation of chest imaging revealed proximal bronchial wall thickenings radiating outward from the hilum in most patients. CONCLUSIONS: The aforementioned characteristics should be considered as representative of hMPV pneumonia. Patients presenting with these features should have laboratory testing performed for prompt diagnosis.


id: cord-348840-s8wjg4ar
title: High-touch surfaces: microbial neighbours at hand
author: Cobrado, L.
date: 2017-06-25
url: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10096-017-3042-4
doi: 10.1007/s10096-017-3042-4
abstract:
  Despite considerable efforts, healthcare-associated infections (HAIs) continue to be globally responsible for serious morbidity, increased costs and prolonged length of stay. Among potentially preventable sources of microbial pathogens causing HAIs, patient care items and environmental surfaces frequently touched play an important role in the chain of transmission. Microorganisms contaminating such high-touch surfaces include Gram-positive and Gram-negative bacteria, viruses, yeasts and parasites, with improved cleaning and disinfection effectively decreasing the rate of HAIs. Manual and automated surface cleaning strategies used in the control of infectious outbreaks are discussed and current trends concerning the prevention of contamination by the use of antimicrobial surfaces are taken into consideration in this manuscript.


id: cord-351017-yntcwq9t
title: COVID-19, insurer board utility, and capital regulation
author: Li, Xuelian
date: 2020-06-18
url: https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/pii/S1544612320305560
doi: 10.1016/j.frl.2020.101659
abstract:
  This paper develops a down-and-out call option model by introducing a structural break in volatility to capture the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak. The life insurer's equity and its board's utility are evaluated at the optimal guaranteed rate in the equity maximization. Results suggest that the seriousness degree of the COVID-19 outbreak and capital regulation enhance the optimal guaranteed rate and the board's utility. Increased the board's utility by increasing liabilities costs insurer profitability. Conflicts of incentives can arise during the COVID-19 outbreak.


id: cord-351834-9pclxek0
title: A descriptive study of acute outbreaks of respiratory disease in Norwegian fattening pig herds
author: Cohen, Liza Miriam
date: 2020-06-24
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32580726/
doi: 10.1186/s13028-020-00529-z
abstract:
  BACKGROUND: Respiratory diseases are major health concerns in the pig production sector worldwide, contributing adversely to morbidity and mortality. Over the past years there was a rise in reported incidents of respiratory disease in pigs in Norway, despite population wide freedom from Aujeszky´s disease, porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome, porcine respiratory corona virus and enzootic pneumonia. The main objective of this study was to investigate acute outbreaks of respiratory disease in conventional Norwegian fattening pig herds. The study included 14 herds. In seven herds with reported outbreaks of acute respiratory disease, data on clinical signs was recorded and samples for laboratory examination were collected. Diagnostic protocols were compared by parallel analysis of clinically healthy pigs from seven non-outbreak herds. RESULTS: The most commonly reported clinical signs were sudden deaths and dyspnea. An average compartment morbidity of 60%, mortality of 4% and case fatality of 9% was recorded in the outbreak herds. Post-mortem examinations revealed acute lesions resembling porcine pleuropneumonia in all 28 pigs investigated from the outbreak herds and in 2 of the 24 (8%) pigs from the non-outbreak herds. Chronic lesions were recorded in another 2 pigs (8%) from the non-outbreak herds. Actinobacillus pleuropneumoniae serovar 8 was isolated from lungs and/or pleura from all tested pigs (n = 28) in the outbreak herds, and from 2 out of 24 pigs (8%) in the non-outbreak herds, one pig with an acute and another pig with a chronic infection. No other significant bacterial findings were made. Seroconversion to A. pleuropneumoniae antibodies was detectable in all outbreak herds analyzed and in six out of seven non-outbreak herds, but the risk ratio for seroconversion of individual pigs was higher (risk ratio 2.3 [1.50- 3.43 95% CI; P < 0.001]) in the outbreak herds. All herds tested positive for porcine circovirus type 2 and negative for influenza A viruses on oral fluid RT-qPCR. CONCLUSION: The main etiological pathogen found during acute outbreaks of respiratory disease was A. pleuropneumoniae serovar 8. All pigs from outbreak herds had typical lesions of acute porcine pleuropneumonia, and only A. pleuropneumoniae serovar 8 was identified. Co-infections were not found to impact disease development.


id: cord-353596-8iqjugcx
author: Bédubourg, Gabriel
date: 2017-07-17
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28715489/
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0181227
title:
  Evaluation and comparison of statistical methods for early temporal detection of outbreaks: A simulation-based study

abstract:
  The objective of this paper is to evaluate a panel of statistical algorithms for temporal outbreak detection. Based on a large dataset of simulated weekly surveillance time series, we performed a systematic assessment of 21 statistical algorithms, 19 implemented in the R package surveillance and two other methods. We estimated false positive rate (FPR), probability of detection (POD), probability of detection during the first week, sensitivity, specificity, negative and positive predictive values and F(1)-measure for each detection method. Then, to identify the factors associated with these performance measures, we ran multivariate Poisson regression models adjusted for the characteristics of the simulated time series (trend, seasonality, dispersion, outbreak sizes, etc.). The FPR ranged from 0.7% to 59.9% and the POD from 43.3% to 88.7%. Some methods had a very high specificity, up to 99.4%, but a low sensitivity. Methods with a high sensitivity (up to 79.5%) had a low specificity. All methods had a high negative predictive value, over 94%, while positive predictive values ranged from 6.5% to 68.4%. Multivariate Poisson regression models showed that performance measures were strongly influenced by the characteristics of time series. Past or current outbreak size and duration strongly influenced detection performances.


id: cord-354345-p4ld0tun
title: A Review and Update on Waterborne Viral Diseases Associated with Swimming Pools
author: Bonadonna, Lucia
date: 2019-01-09
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30634384/
doi: 10.3390/ijerph16020166
abstract:
  Infectious agents, including bacteria, viruses, protozoa, and molds, may threaten the health of swimming pool bathers. Viruses are a major cause of recreationally-associated waterborne diseases linked to pools, lakes, ponds, thermal pools/spas, rivers, and hot springs. They can make their way into waters through the accidental release of fecal matter, body fluids (saliva, mucus), or skin flakes by symptomatic or asymptomatic carriers. We present an updated overview of epidemiological data on viral outbreaks, a project motivated, among other things, by the availability of improved viral detection methodologies. Special attention is paid to outbreak investigations (source of the outbreak, pathways of transmission, chlorination/disinfection). Epidemiological studies on incidents of viral contamination of swimming pools under non-epidemic conditions are also reviewed.


id: cord-354763-odzrco6q
author: Drake, John M.
date: 2006-12-20
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17183647/
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0000020
title:
  Societal Learning in Epidemics: Intervention Effectiveness during the 2003 SARS Outbreak in Singapore

abstract:
  BACKGROUND: Rapid response to outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases is impeded by uncertain diagnoses and delayed communication. Understanding the effect of inefficient response is a potentially important contribution of epidemic theory. To develop this understanding we studied societal learning during emerging outbreaks wherein patient removal accelerates as information is gathered and disseminated. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed an extension of a standard outbreak model, the simple stochastic epidemic, which accounts for societal learning. We obtained expressions for the expected outbreak size and the distribution of epidemic duration. We found that rapid learning noticeably affects the final outbreak size even when learning exhibits diminishing returns (relaxation). As an example, we estimated the learning rate for the 2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in Singapore. Evidence for relaxation during the first eight weeks of the outbreak was inconclusive. We estimated that if societal learning had occurred at half the actual rate, the expected final size of the outbreak would have reached nearly 800 cases, more than three times the observed number of infections. By contrast, the expected outbreak size for societal learning twice as effective was 116 cases. CONCLUSION: These results show that the rate of societal learning can greatly affect the final size of disease outbreaks, justifying investment in early warning systems and attentiveness to disease outbreak by both government authorities and the public. We submit that the burden of emerging infections, including the risk of a global pandemic, could be efficiently reduced by improving procedures for rapid detection of outbreaks, alerting public health officials, and aggressively educating the public at the start of an outbreak.


id: cord-355713-zupocnuf
title: Changing Grocery Shopping Behaviours Among Chinese Consumers At The Outset Of The COVID‐19 Outbreak
author: Li, Junxiong
date: 2020-06-12
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32836486/
doi: 10.1111/tesg.12420
abstract:
  This study focuses on the embryonic stages of the COVID‐19 pandemic in China, where most people affected opted to abide by the Chinese government’s national self‐quarantine campaign. This resulted in major disruptions to one of the most common market processes in retail: food retailing. The research adopts the theory of planned behaviour to provide early empirical insights into changes in consumer behaviour related to food purchases during the initial stages of the COVID‐19 outbreak in China. Data from the online survey carried out suggest that the outbreak triggered considerable levels of switching behaviours among customers, with farmers’ markets losing most of their customers, while local small independent retailers experienced the highest levels of resilience in terms of customer retention. This study suggests avenues for further scholarly research and policy making related to the impact this behaviour may be having around the world on society’s more vulnerable groups, particularly the elderly.


