key: cord-261377-m5djp8mh
authors: Grech, Victor
title: COVID-19 and potential global mortality - Revisited
date: 2020-04-30
journal: Early Hum Dev
DOI: 10.1016/j.earlhumdev.2020.105054
sha: 
doc_id: 261377
cord_uid: m5djp8mh

nan

On the 13 th April 2020, Adhanom Tedros, Director General of the World Health Organization (WHO) stated: This is a new virus, and the first pandemic caused by a coronavirus. We're all learning all the time and adjusting our strategy, based on the latest available evidence. We can only say what we know, and we can only act on what we know. (1) In a previous paper,(2) this author attempted to assess potential COVID-19 continent-based mortality based on initial WHO data from China which estimated that 14% of infected cases are severe and require hospitalisation, 5% of infected cases are very severe and require intensive care admission, mostly for ventilation, and 4% of infected die. (3) However, it is becoming increasingly clear that a significant proportion of circulating COVID positive patients are asymptomatic, with potential for transmission of disease.(4) This may be circa 80-90% of COVID in community.(4)

For this reason, the table in the initial paper showing continent and global estimates (2) has been recalculated with a correction factor, an estimated 10% symptomatic proportion of infected individuals.

Updated results are shown in table 1. Mortality figures globally be around the 50 million level.

Clearly, this pandemic has the potential to be as severe in terms of mortality as the influenza pandemic of 1918 which killed more than 50 million people and caused more than 500 million infections worldwide.(5) The conclusions of the previous paper stand. ( 2) Sudden surges of case risk healthcare being plunged into chaos and this may happen the public do not do their part.(6) Infection cannot occur in the absence of contact. The only way to mitigate these numbers is to apply social distancing and take the precautions outlined by public health such as hand washing with soap, masks and so on. It must be reiterated that these are best guesses and estimates that preclude the discovery of effective treatment and/or vaccination.

WHO Director-General's opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID-19 -13

Unknown unknowns -COVID-19 and potential global mortality

World Health Organisation

The Spanish Influenza Pandemic: a lesson from history 100 years after 1918

COVID-19 and Italy: what next?