id sid tid token lemma pos cord-162105-u0w56xrp 1 1 key key JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 1 2 : : : cord-162105-u0w56xrp 1 3 cord-162105-u0w56xrp cord-162105-u0w56xrp JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 1 4 authors author NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 1 5 : : : cord-162105-u0w56xrp 1 6 Centeno Centeno NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 1 7 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 1 8 Raffy Raffy NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 1 9 S. S. NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 1 10 ; ; : cord-162105-u0w56xrp 1 11 Marquez Marquez NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 1 12 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 2 1 Judith Judith NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 2 2 P. P. NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 2 3 title title NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 2 4 : : : cord-162105-u0w56xrp 3 1 How how WRB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 3 2 much much JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 3 3 did do VBD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 3 4 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 3 5 Tourism Tourism NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 3 6 Industry Industry NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 3 7 Lost lose VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 3 8 ? ? . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 4 1 Estimating estimate VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 4 2 Earning Earning NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 4 3 Loss Loss NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 4 4 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 4 5 Tourism Tourism NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 4 6 in in IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 4 7 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 4 8 Philippines Philippines NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 4 9 date date NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 5 1 : : : cord-162105-u0w56xrp 5 2 2020 2020 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 5 3 - - HYPH cord-162105-u0w56xrp 5 4 04 04 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 5 5 - - SYM cord-162105-u0w56xrp 5 6 21 21 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 5 7 journal journal NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 5 8 : : : cord-162105-u0w56xrp 6 1 nan nan NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 6 2 DOI DOI NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 6 3 : : : cord-162105-u0w56xrp 6 4 nan nan NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 6 5 sha sha NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 6 6 : : : cord-162105-u0w56xrp 6 7 355689a179d9e692368157740a46599deacc7a6c 355689a179d9e692368157740a46599deacc7a6c NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 6 8 doc_id doc_id NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 6 9 : : : cord-162105-u0w56xrp 6 10 162105 162105 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 6 11 cord_uid cord_uid NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 6 12 : : : cord-162105-u0w56xrp 7 1 u0w56xrp u0w56xrp JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 8 1 The the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 8 2 study study NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 8 3 aimed aim VBD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 8 4 to to TO cord-162105-u0w56xrp 8 5 forecast forecast VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 8 6 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 8 7 total total JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 8 8 earnings earning NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 8 9 lost lose VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 8 10 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 8 11 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 8 12 tourism tourism NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 8 13 industry industry NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 8 14 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 8 15 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 8 16 Philippines Philippines NNPS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 8 17 during during IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 8 18 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 8 19 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 8 20 pandemic pandemic NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 8 21 using use VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 8 22 seasonal seasonal JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 8 23 autoregressive autoregressive JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 8 24 integrated integrate VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 8 25 moving move VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 8 26 average average NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 8 27 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 9 1 Several several JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 9 2 models model NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 9 3 were be VBD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 9 4 considered consider VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 9 5 based base VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 9 6 on on IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 9 7 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 9 8 autocorrelation autocorrelation NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 9 9 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 9 10 partial partial JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 9 11 autocorrelation autocorrelation NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 9 12 graphs graph NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 9 13 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 10 1 Based base VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 10 2 on on IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 10 3 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 10 4 Akaike Akaike NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 10 5 's 's POS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 10 6 Information Information NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 10 7 Criterion Criterion NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 10 8 ( ( -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 10 9 AIC AIC NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 10 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 10 11 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 10 12 Root Root NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 10 13 Mean Mean NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 10 14 Squared Squared NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 10 15 Error Error NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 10 16 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 10 17 ARIMA(1,1,1)$times$(1,0,1)$_{12}$ ARIMA(1,1,1)$times$(1,0,1)$_{12}$ NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 10 18 was be VBD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 10 19 identified identify VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 10 20 to to TO cord-162105-u0w56xrp 10 21 be be VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 10 22 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 10 23 better well JJR cord-162105-u0w56xrp 10 24 model model NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 10 25 among among IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 10 26 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 10 27 others other NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 10 28 with with IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 10 29 an an DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 10 30 AIC AIC NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 10 31 value value NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 10 32 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 10 33 $ $ $ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 10 34 -414.51 -414.51 SYM cord-162105-u0w56xrp 10 35 $ $ $ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 10 36 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 10 37 RMSE RMSE NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 10 38 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 10 39 $ $ $ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 10 40 47884.85$. 47884.85$. CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 11 1 Moreover moreover RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 11 2 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 11 3 it -PRON- PRP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 11 4 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 11 5 expected expect VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 11 6 that that IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 11 7 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 11 8 industry industry NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 11 9 will will MD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 11 10 have have VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 11 11 an an DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 11 12 estimated estimate VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 11 13 earning earning NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 11 14 loss loss NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 11 15 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 11 16 around around IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 11 17 170.5 170.5 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 11 18 billion billion CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 11 19 pesos peso NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 11 20 if if IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 11 21 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 11 22 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 11 23 crisis crisis NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 11 24 will will MD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 11 25 continue continue VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 11 26 up up RP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 11 27 to to IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 11 28 July July NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 11 29 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 12 1 Possible possible JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 12 2 recommendations recommendation NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 12 3 to to TO cord-162105-u0w56xrp 12 4 mitigate mitigate VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 12 5 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 12 6 problem problem NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 12 7 includes include VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 12 8 stopping stop VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 12 9 foreign foreign JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 12 10 tourism tourism NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 12 11 but but CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 12 12 allowing allow VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 12 13 regions region NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 12 14 for for IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 12 15 domestic domestic JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 12 16 travels travel NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 12 17 if if IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 12 18 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 12 19 regions region NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 12 20 are be VBP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 12 21 confirmed confirm VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 12 22 to to TO cord-162105-u0w56xrp 12 23 have have VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 12 24 no no DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 12 25 cases case NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 12 26 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 12 27 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 12 28 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 12 29 assuming assume VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 12 30 that that IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 12 31 every every DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 12 32 regions region NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 12 33 will will MD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 12 34 follow follow VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 12 35 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 12 36 stringent stringent JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 12 37 guidelines guideline NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 12 38 to to TO cord-162105-u0w56xrp 12 39 eliminate eliminate VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 12 40 or or CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 12 41 prevent prevent VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 12 42 transmissions transmission NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 12 43 ; ; : cord-162105-u0w56xrp 12 44 or or CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 12 45 extending extend VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 12 46 this this DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 12 47 to to IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 12 48 countries country NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 12 49 with with IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 12 50 no no DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 12 51 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 12 52 cases case NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 12 53 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 13 1 According accord VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 13 2 to to IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 13 3 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 13 4 Philippine Philippine NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 13 5 Statistics Statistics NNPS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 13 6 Authority Authority NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 13 7 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 13 8 tourism tourism NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 13 9 accounts account NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 13 10 to to IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 13 11 12.7 12.7 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 13 12 % % NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 13 13 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 13 14 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 13 15 countrys countrys NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 13 16 Gross Gross NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 13 17 Domestic Domestic NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 13 18 Product Product NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 13 19 in in IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 13 20 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 13 21 year year NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 13 22 2018 2018 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 13 23 [ [ -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 13 24 1 1 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 13 25 ] ] -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 13 26 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 14 1 Moreover moreover RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 14 2 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 14 3 National National NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 14 4 Economic Economic NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 14 5 Development Development NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 14 6 Authority Authority NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 14 7 reported report VBD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 14 8 that that IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 14 9 1.5 1.5 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 14 10 % % NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 14 11 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 14 12 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 14 13 countrys countrys JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 14 14 GDP GDP NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 14 15 on on IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 14 16 2018 2018 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 14 17 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 14 18 accounted account VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 14 19 to to IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 14 20 international international JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 14 21 tourism tourism NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 14 22 with with IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 14 23 Korea Korea NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 14 24 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 14 25 China China NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 14 26 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 14 27 USA USA NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 14 28 having have VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 14 29 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 14 30 largest large JJS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 14 31 numbers number NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 14 32 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 14 33 tourists tourist NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 14 34 coming come VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 14 35 in in IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 14 36 [ [ -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 14 37 ] ] -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 14 38 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 15 1 In in IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 15 2 addition addition NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 15 3 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 15 4 Department Department NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 15 5 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 15 6 Tourism Tourism NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 15 7 recorded record VBD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 15 8 that that IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 15 9 7.4 7.4 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 15 10 % % NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 15 11 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 15 12 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 15 13 total total JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 15 14 domestic domestic JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 15 15 tourists tourist NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 15 16 or or CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 15 17 an an DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 15 18 estimated estimate VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 15 19 figure figure NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 15 20 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 15 21 3.97 3.97 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 15 22 million million CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 15 23 tourists tourist NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 15 24 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 15 25 both both CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 15 26 foreign foreign JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 15 27 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 15 28 domestics domestic NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 15 29 were be VBD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 15 30 in in IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 15 31 Davao Davao NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 15 32 Region Region NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 15 33 on on IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 15 34 2018 2018 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 15 35 [ [ -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 15 36 2 2 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 15 37 ] ] -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 15 38 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 16 1 Also also RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 16 2 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 16 3 employment employment NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 16 4 in in IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 16 5 tourism tourism NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 16 6 in in IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 16 7 - - HYPH cord-162105-u0w56xrp 16 8 dustry dustry NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 16 9 was be VBD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 16 10 roughly roughly RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 16 11 estimated estimate VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 16 12 to to IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 16 13 5.4 5.4 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 16 14 million million CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 16 15 in in IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 16 16 2018 2018 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 16 17 which which WDT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 16 18 constitutes constitute VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 16 19 13 13 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 16 20 % % NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 16 21 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 16 22 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 16 23 employment employment NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 16 24 in in IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 16 25 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 16 26 country country NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 16 27 according accord VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 16 28 to to IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 16 29 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 16 30 Philippine Philippine NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 16 31 Statistics Statistics NNPS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 16 32 Authority Authority NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 16 33 [ [ -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 16 34 3 3 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 16 35 ] ] -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 16 36 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 17 1 Hence hence RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 17 2 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 17 3 estimating estimate VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 17 4 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 17 5 total total JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 17 6 earnings earning NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 17 7 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 17 8 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 17 9 tourism tourism NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 17 10 industry industry NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 17 11 in in IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 17 12 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 17 13 Philippines Philippines NNPS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 17 14 will will MD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 17 15 be be VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 17 16 very very RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 17 17 helpful helpful JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 17 18 in in IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 17 19 formulating formulate VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 17 20 necessary necessary JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 17 21 interventions intervention NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 17 22 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 17 23 strategies strategy NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 17 24 to to TO cord-162105-u0w56xrp 17 25 mitigate mitigate VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 17 26 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 17 27 effects effect NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 17 28 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 17 29 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 17 30 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 17 31 pandemic pandemic NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 17 32 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 18 1 This this DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 18 2 paper paper NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 18 3 will will MD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 18 4 serve serve VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 18 5 as as IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 18 6 a a DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 18 7 baseline baseline JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 18 8 research research NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 18 9 to to TO cord-162105-u0w56xrp 18 10 describe describe VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 18 11 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 18 12 estimate estimate VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 18 13 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 18 14 earnings earning NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 18 15 lost lose VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 18 16 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 18 17 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 18 18 said say VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 18 19 industry industry NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 18 20 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 19 1 The the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 19 2 objective objective NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 19 3 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 19 4 this this DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 19 5 research research NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 19 6 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 19 7 to to TO cord-162105-u0w56xrp 19 8 forecast forecast VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 19 9 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 19 10 monthly monthly JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 19 11 earnings earning NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 19 12 loss loss NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 19 13 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 19 14 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 19 15 tourism tourism NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 19 16 industry industry NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 19 17 during during IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 19 18 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 19 19 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 19 20 pandemic pandemic NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 19 21 by by IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 19 22 forecasting forecast VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 19 23 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 19 24 monthly monthly JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 19 25 foreign foreign JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 19 26 visitor visitor NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 19 27 arrivals arrival NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 19 28 using use VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 19 29 Seasonal Seasonal NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 19 30 Autoregressive Autoregressive NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 19 31 Integrated Integrated NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 19 32 Moving Moving NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 19 33 Average Average NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 19 34 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 20 1 Specifically specifically RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 20 2 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 20 3 it -PRON- PRP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 20 4 aims aim VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 20 5 to to TO cord-162105-u0w56xrp 20 6 answer answer VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 20 7 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 20 8 following follow VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 20 9 questions question NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 20 10 : : : cord-162105-u0w56xrp 20 11 1 1 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 20 12 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 21 1 What what WP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 21 2 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 21 3 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 21 4 order order NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 21 5 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 21 6 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 21 7 seasonal seasonal JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 21 8 autoregressive autoregressive NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 21 9 intergrated intergrate VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 21 10 moving move VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 21 11 average average NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 21 12 for for IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 21 13 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 21 14 monthly monthly JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 21 15 foreign foreign JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 21 16 visitor visitor NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 21 17 arrivals arrival NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 21 18 in in IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 21 19 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 21 20 Philippines Philippines NNPS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 21 21 ? ? . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 22 1 2 2 LS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 22 2 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 23 1 How how WRB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 23 2 much much JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 23 3 earnings earning NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 23 4 did do VBD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 23 5 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 23 6 tourism tourism NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 23 7 industry industry NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 23 8 lost lose VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 23 9 during during IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 23 10 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 23 11 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 23 12 pandemic pandemic NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 23 13 ? ? . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 24 1 The the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 24 2 study study NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 24 3 covers cover VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 24 4 a a DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 24 5 period period NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 24 6 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 24 7 approximately approximately RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 24 8 eight eight CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 24 9 years year NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 24 10 from from IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 24 11 January January NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 24 12 2012 2012 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 24 13 to to IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 24 14 December December NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 24 15 2019 2019 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 24 16 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 25 1 Also also RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 25 2 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 25 3 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 25 4 modeling modeling NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 25 5 technique technique NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 25 6 that that WDT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 25 7 was be VBD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 25 8 considered consider VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 25 9 in in IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 25 10 this this DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 25 11 research research NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 25 12 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 25 13 limited limit VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 25 14 only only RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 25 15 to to TO cord-162105-u0w56xrp 25 16 autoregressive autoregressive VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 25 17 integrated integrate VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 25 18 moving move VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 25 19 average average NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 25 20 ( ( -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 25 21 ARIMA ARIMA NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 25 22 ) ) -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 25 23 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 25 24 seasonal seasonal JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 25 25 autoregressive autoregressive JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 25 26 integrated integrate VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 25 27 moving move VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 25 28 average average JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 25 29 ( ( -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 25 30 SARIMA SARIMA NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 25 31 ) ) -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 25 32 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 26 1 Other other JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 26 2 modeling modeling NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 26 3 techniques technique NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 26 4 were be VBD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 26 5 not not RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 26 6 tested test VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 26 7 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 26 8 considered consider VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 26 9 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 27 1 The the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 27 2 research research NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 27 3 utilized utilize VBD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 27 4 longitudinal longitudinal JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 27 5 research research NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 27 6 design design NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 27 7 wherein wherein WRB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 27 8 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 27 9 monthly monthly JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 27 10 foreign foreign JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 27 11 visitor visitor NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 27 12 arrivals arrival NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 27 13 in in IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 27 14 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 27 15 Philippines Philippines NNPS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 27 16 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 27 17 recorded record VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 27 18 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 27 19 analyzed analyze VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 27 20 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 28 1 A a DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 28 2 longitudinal longitudinal JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 28 3 research research NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 28 4 design design NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 28 5 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 28 6 an an DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 28 7 observational observational JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 28 8 research research NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 28 9 method method NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 28 10 in in IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 28 11 which which WDT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 28 12 data data NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 28 13 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 28 14 gathered gather VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 28 15 for for IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 28 16 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 28 17 same same JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 28 18 subject subject NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 28 19 repeatedly repeatedly RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 28 20 over over IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 28 21 a a DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 28 22 period period NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 28 23 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 28 24 time time NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 28 25 [ [ -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 28 26 4 4 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 28 27 ] ] -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 28 28 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 29 1 Forecasting forecasting NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 29 2 method method NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 29 3 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 29 4 specifically specifically RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 29 5 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 29 6 Seasonal Seasonal NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 29 7 Autoregressive Autoregressive NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 29 8 Integrated Integrated NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 29 9 Moving Moving NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 29 10 Average Average NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 29 11 ( ( -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 29 12 SARIMA SARIMA NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 29 13 ) ) -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 29 14 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 29 15 was be VBD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 29 16 used use VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 29 17 to to TO cord-162105-u0w56xrp 29 18 forecast forecast VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 29 19 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 29 20 future future JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 29 21 monthly monthly JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 29 22 foreign foreign JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 29 23 visitor visitor NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 29 24 arrivals arrival NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 29 25 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 30 1 In in IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 30 2 selecting select VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 30 3 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 30 4 appropriate appropriate JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 30 5 model model NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 30 6 to to TO cord-162105-u0w56xrp 30 7 forecast forecast VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 30 8 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 30 9 monthly monthly JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 30 10 foreign foreign JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 30 11 visitor visitor NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 30 12 arrivals arrival NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 30 13 in in IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 30 14 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 30 15 Philippines Philippines NNPS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 30 16 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 30 17 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 30 18 Box Box NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 30 19 - - HYPH cord-162105-u0w56xrp 30 20 Jenkins Jenkins NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 30 21 methodology methodology NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 30 22 was be VBD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 30 23 used use VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 30 24 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 31 1 The the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 31 2 data datum NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 31 3 set set NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 31 4 was be VBD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 31 5 divided divide VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 31 6 into into IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 31 7 two two CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 31 8 sets set NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 31 9 : : : cord-162105-u0w56xrp 31 10 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 31 11 training training NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 31 12 set set NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 31 13 which which WDT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 31 14 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 31 15 composed compose VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 31 16 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 31 17 86 86 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 31 18 data data NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 31 19 points point NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 31 20 from from IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 31 21 January January NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 31 22 2012 2012 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 31 23 to to IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 31 24 December December NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 31 25 2018 2018 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 31 26 ; ; : cord-162105-u0w56xrp 31 27 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 31 28 testing testing NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 31 29 set set NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 31 30 which which WDT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 31 31 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 31 32 composed compose VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 31 33 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 31 34 12 12 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 31 35 data data NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 31 36 points point NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 31 37 from from IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 31 38 January January NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 31 39 2019 2019 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 31 40 to to IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 31 41 December December NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 31 42 2019 2019 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 31 43 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 32 1 The the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 32 2 training training NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 32 3 set set NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 32 4 was be VBD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 32 5 used use VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 32 6 to to TO cord-162105-u0w56xrp 32 7 identify identify VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 32 8 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 32 9 appropriate appropriate JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 32 10 SARIMA SARIMA NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 32 11 order order NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 32 12 whereas whereas IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 32 13 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 32 14 testing testing NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 32 15 set set NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 32 16 will will MD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 32 17 measure measure VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 32 18 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 32 19 accuracy accuracy NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 32 20 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 32 21 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 32 22 selected select VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 32 23 model model NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 32 24 using use VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 32 25 root root NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 32 26 mean mean NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 32 27 squared squared JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 32 28 error error NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 32 29 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 33 1 The the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 33 2 best good JJS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 33 3 model model NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 33 4 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 33 5 in in IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 33 6 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 33 7 context context NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 33 8 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 33 9 this this DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 33 10 paper paper NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 33 11 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 33 12 was be VBD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 33 13 characterized characterize VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 33 14 to to TO cord-162105-u0w56xrp 33 15 have have VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 33 16 a a DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 33 17 low low JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 33 18 Akaike Akaike NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 33 19 's 's POS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 33 20 Information Information NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 33 21 Criterion Criterion NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 33 22 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 33 23 low low JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 33 24 root root NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 34 1 mean mean VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 34 2 squared squared NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 34 3 error error NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 34 4 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 35 1 The the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 35 2 data datum NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 35 3 were be VBD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 35 4 extracted extract VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 35 5 from from IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 35 6 Department Department NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 35 7 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 35 8 Tourism Tourism NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 35 9 website website NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 35 10 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 36 1 The the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 36 2 data datum NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 36 3 were be VBD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 36 4 composed compose VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 36 5 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 36 6 monthly monthly JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 36 7 foreign foreign JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 36 8 visitor visitor NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 36 9 arrivals arrival NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 36 10 from from IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 36 11 January January NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 36 12 2012 2012 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 36 13 to to IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 36 14 December December NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 36 15 2019 2019 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 36 16 which which WDT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 36 17 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 36 18 composed compose VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 36 19 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 36 20 98 98 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 36 21 data data NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 36 22 points point NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 36 23 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 37 1 Box Box NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 37 2 - - HYPH cord-162105-u0w56xrp 37 3 Jenkins Jenkins NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 37 4 methodology methodology NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 37 5 refers refer VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 37 6 to to IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 37 7 a a DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 37 8 systematic systematic JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 37 9 method method NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 37 10 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 37 11 identifying identify VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 37 12 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 37 13 fitting fitting JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 37 14 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 37 15 checking check VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 37 16 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 37 17 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 37 18 using use VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 37 19 SARIMA SARIMA NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 37 20 time time NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 37 21 series series NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 37 22 models model NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 37 23 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 38 1 The the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 38 2 method method NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 38 3 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 38 4 appropriate appropriate JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 38 5 for for IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 38 6 time time NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 38 7 series series NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 38 8 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 38 9 medium medium NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 38 10 to to IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 38 11 long long JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 38 12 length length NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 38 13 which which WDT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 38 14 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 38 15 at at IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 38 16 least least RBS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 38 17 50 50 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 38 18 observations observation NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 38 19 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 39 1 The the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 39 2 Box Box NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 39 3 - - HYPH cord-162105-u0w56xrp 39 4 Jenkins Jenkins NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 39 5 approach approach NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 39 6 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 39 7 divided divide VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 39 8 into into IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 39 9 three three CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 39 10 stages stage NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 39 11 : : : cord-162105-u0w56xrp 39 12 Model Model NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 39 13 Identification Identification NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 39 14 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 39 15 Model Model NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 39 16 Estimation Estimation NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 39 17 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 39 18 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 39 19 Diagnostic Diagnostic NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 39 20 Checking checking NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 39 21 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 40 1 In in IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 40 2 this this DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 40 3 stage stage NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 40 4 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 40 5 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 40 6 first first JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 40 7 step step NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 40 8 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 40 9 to to TO cord-162105-u0w56xrp 40 10 check check VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 40 11 whether whether IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 40 12 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 40 13 data data NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 40 14 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 40 15 stationary stationary JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 40 16 or or CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 40 17 not not RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 40 18 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 41 1 If if IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 41 2 it -PRON- PRP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 41 3 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 41 4 not not RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 41 5 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 41 6 then then RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 41 7 differencing differencing NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 41 8 was be VBD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 41 9 applied apply VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 41 10 to to IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 41 11 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 41 12 data datum NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 41 13 until until IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 41 14 it -PRON- PRP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 41 15 becomes become VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 41 16 stationary stationary JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 41 17 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 42 1 Stationary stationary JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 42 2 series series NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 42 3 means mean VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 42 4 that that IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 42 5 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 42 6 value value NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 42 7 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 42 8 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 42 9 series series NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 42 10 fluctuates fluctuate VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 42 11 around around IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 42 12 a a DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 42 13 constant constant JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 42 14 mean mean NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 42 15 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 42 16 variance variance NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 42 17 with with IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 42 18 no no DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 42 19 seasonality seasonality NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 42 20 over over IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 42 21 time time NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 42 22 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 43 1 Plotting plot VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 43 2 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 43 3 sample sample NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 43 4 autocorrelation autocorrelation NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 43 5 function function NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 43 6 ( ( -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 43 7 ACF ACF NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 43 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 43 9 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 43 10 sample sample VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 43 11 partial partial JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 43 12 autocorrelation autocorrelation NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 43 13 function function NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 43 14 ( ( -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 43 15 PACF PACF NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 43 16 ) ) -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 43 17 can can MD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 43 18 be be VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 43 19 used use VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 43 20 to to TO cord-162105-u0w56xrp 43 21 assess assess VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 43 22 if if IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 43 23 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 43 24 series series NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 43 25 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 43 26 stationary stationary JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 43 27 or or CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 43 28 not not RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 43 29 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 44 1 Also also RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 44 2 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 44 3 Augmented Augmented NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 44 4 Dickey−Fuller Dickey−Fuller NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 44 5 ( ( -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 44 6 ADF ADF NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 44 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 44 8 test test NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 44 9 can can MD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 44 10 be be VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 44 11 applied apply VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 44 12 to to TO cord-162105-u0w56xrp 44 13 check check VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 44 14 if if IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 44 15 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 44 16 series series NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 44 17 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 44 18 stationary stationary JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 44 19 or or CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 44 20 not not RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 44 21 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 45 1 Next next JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 45 2 step step NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 45 3 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 45 4 to to TO cord-162105-u0w56xrp 45 5 check check VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 45 6 if if IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 45 7 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 45 8 variance variance NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 45 9 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 45 10 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 45 11 series series NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 45 12 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 45 13 constant constant JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 45 14 or or CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 45 15 not not RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 45 16 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 46 1 If if IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 46 2 it -PRON- PRP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 46 3 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 46 4 not not RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 46 5 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 46 6 data datum NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 46 7 transformation transformation NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 46 8 such such JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 46 9 as as IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 46 10 differencing differencing NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 46 11 and/or and/or CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 46 12 Box Box NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 46 13 - - HYPH cord-162105-u0w56xrp 46 14 Cox Cox NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 46 15 transformation transformation NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 46 16 ( ( -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 46 17 eg eg IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 46 18 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 46 19 logarithm logarithm NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 46 20 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 46 21 square square JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 46 22 root root NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 46 23 ) ) -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 46 24 may may MD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 46 25 be be VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 46 26 applied apply VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 46 27 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 47 1 Once once RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 47 2 done do VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 47 3 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 47 4 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 47 5 parameters parameter NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 47 6 p p NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 47 7 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 47 8 q q NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 47 9 are be VBP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 47 10 identified identify VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 47 11 using use VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 47 12 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 47 13 ACF ACF NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 47 14 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 47 15 PACF PACF NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 47 16 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 48 1 If if IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 48 2 there there EX cord-162105-u0w56xrp 48 3 are be VBP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 48 4 2 2 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 48 5 or or CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 48 6 more more JJR cord-162105-u0w56xrp 48 7 candidate candidate NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 48 8 models model NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 48 9 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 48 10 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 48 11 Akaike Akaike NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 48 12 's 's POS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 48 13 Information Information NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 48 14 Criterion Criterion NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 48 15 ( ( -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 48 16 AIC AIC NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 48 17 ) ) -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 48 18 can can MD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 48 19 be be VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 48 20 used use VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 48 21 to to TO cord-162105-u0w56xrp 48 22 select select VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 48 23 which which WDT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 48 24 among among IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 48 25 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 48 26 models model NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 48 27 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 48 28 better well JJR cord-162105-u0w56xrp 48 29 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 49 1 The the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 49 2 model model NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 49 3 with with IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 49 4 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 49 5 lowest low JJS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 49 6 AIC AIC NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 49 7 was be VBD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 49 8 selected select VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 49 9 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 50 1 In in IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 50 2 this this DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 50 3 stage stage NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 50 4 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 50 5 parameters parameter NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 50 6 are be VBP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 50 7 estimated estimate VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 50 8 by by IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 50 9 finding find VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 50 10 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 50 11 values value NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 50 12 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 50 13 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 50 14 model model NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 50 15 coefficients coefficient NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 50 16 which which WDT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 50 17 provide provide VBP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 50 18 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 50 19 best good JJS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 50 20 fit fit NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 50 21 to to IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 50 22 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 50 23 data datum NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 50 24 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 51 1 In in IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 51 2 this this DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 51 3 research research NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 51 4 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 51 5 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 51 6 combination combination NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 51 7 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 51 8 Conditional Conditional NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 51 9 Sum Sum NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 51 10 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 51 11 Squares Squares NNPS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 51 12 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 51 13 Maximum Maximum NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 51 14 Likelihood Likelihood NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 51 15 estimates estimate NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 51 16 was be VBD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 51 17 used use VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 51 18 by by IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 51 19 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 51 20 researcher researcher NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 51 21 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 52 1 Conditional conditional JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 52 2 sum sum NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 52 3 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 52 4 squares square NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 52 5 was be VBD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 52 6 utilized utilize VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 52 7 to to TO cord-162105-u0w56xrp 52 8 find find VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 52 9 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 52 10 starting start VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 52 11 values value NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 52 12 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 52 13 then then RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 52 14 maximum maximum JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 52 15 likelihood likelihood NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 52 16 was be VBD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 52 17 applied apply VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 52 18 after after RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 52 19 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 53 1 Diagnostic diagnostic JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 53 2 checking checking NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 53 3 performs perform VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 53 4 residual residual JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 53 5 analysis analysis NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 53 6 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 54 1 This this DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 54 2 stage stage NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 54 3 involves involve VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 54 4 testing test VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 54 5 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 54 6 assumptions assumption NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 54 7 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 54 8 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 54 9 model model NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 54 10 to to TO cord-162105-u0w56xrp 54 11 identify identify VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 54 12 any any DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 54 13 areas area NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 54 14 where where WRB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 54 15 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 54 16 model model NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 54 17 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 54 18 inadequate inadequate JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 54 19 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 54 20 if if IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 54 21 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 54 22 corresponding corresponding JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 54 23 residuals residual NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 54 24 are be VBP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 54 25 uncorrelated uncorrelated JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 54 26 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 55 1 Box Box NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 55 2 - - HYPH cord-162105-u0w56xrp 55 3 Pierce Pierce NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 55 4 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 55 5 Ljung Ljung NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 55 6 - - HYPH cord-162105-u0w56xrp 55 7 Box Box NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 55 8 tests test NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 55 9 may may MD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 55 10 be be VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 55 11 used use VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 55 12 to to TO cord-162105-u0w56xrp 55 13 test test VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 55 14 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 55 15 assumptions assumption NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 55 16 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 56 1 Once once IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 56 2 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 56 3 model model NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 56 4 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 56 5 a a DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 56 6 good good JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 56 7 fit fit NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 56 8 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 56 9 it -PRON- PRP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 56 10 can can MD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 56 11 be be VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 56 12 used use VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 56 13 for for IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 56 14 forecasting forecasting NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 56 15 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 57 1 Forecast forecast NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 57 2 evaluation evaluation NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 57 3 involves involve VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 57 4 generating generate VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 57 5 forecasted forecast VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 57 6 values value NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 57 7 equal equal JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 57 8 to to IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 57 9 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 57 10 time time NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 57 11 frame frame NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 57 12 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 57 13 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 57 14 model model NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 57 15 validation validation NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 57 16 set set VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 57 17 then then RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 57 18 comparing compare VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 57 19 these these DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 57 20 values value NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 57 21 to to IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 57 22 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 57 23 latter latter JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 57 24 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 58 1 The the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 58 2 root root NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 58 3 mean mean NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 58 4 squared squared JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 58 5 error error NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 58 6 was be VBD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 58 7 used use VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 58 8 to to TO cord-162105-u0w56xrp 58 9 check check VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 58 10 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 58 11 accuracy accuracy NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 58 12 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 58 13 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 58 14 model model NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 58 15 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 59 1 Moreover moreover RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 59 2 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 59 3 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 59 4 ACF ACF NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 59 5 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 59 6 PACF PACF NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 59 7 plots plot NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 59 8 were be VBD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 59 9 used use VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 59 10 to to TO cord-162105-u0w56xrp 59 11 check check VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 59 12 if if IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 59 13 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 59 14 residuals residual NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 59 15 behave behave VBP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 59 16 like like IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 59 17 white white JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 59 18 noise noise NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 59 19 while while IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 59 20 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 59 21 Shapiro Shapiro NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 59 22 - - HYPH cord-162105-u0w56xrp 59 23 Wilk Wilk NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 59 24 test test NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 59 25 was be VBD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 59 26 used use VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 59 27 to to TO cord-162105-u0w56xrp 59 28 perform perform VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 59 29 normality normality NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 59 30 test test NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 59 31 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 60 1 The the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 60 2 following follow VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 60 3 statistical statistical JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 60 4 tools tool NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 60 5 were be VBD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 60 6 used use VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 60 7 in in IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 60 8 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 60 9 data data NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 60 10 analysis analysis NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 60 11 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 60 12 this this DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 60 13 study study NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 60 14 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 61 1 Sample sample JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 61 2 autocorrelation autocorrelation NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 61 3 function function NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 61 4 measures measure NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 61 5 how how WRB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 61 6 correlated correlate VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 61 7 past past JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 61 8 data data NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 61 9 points point NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 61 10 are be VBP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 61 11 to to IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 61 12 future future JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 61 13 values value NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 61 14 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 61 15 based base VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 61 16 on on IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 61 17 how how WRB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 61 18 many many JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 61 19 time time NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 61 20 steps step VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 61 21 these these DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 61 22 points point NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 61 23 are be VBP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 61 24 separated separate VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 61 25 by by IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 61 26 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 62 1 Given give VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 62 2 a a DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 62 3 time time NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 62 4 series series NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 62 5 X X NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 62 6 t t NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 62 7 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 62 8 we -PRON- PRP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 62 9 define define VBP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 62 10 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 62 11 sample sample NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 62 12 autocorrelation autocorrelation NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 62 13 function function NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 62 14 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 62 15 r r NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 62 16 k k NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 62 17 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 62 18 at at IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 62 19 lag lag NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 62 20 k k NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 62 21 as as IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 62 22 [ [ -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 62 23 5 5 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 62 24 ] ] -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 62 25 _SP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 63 1 whereX whereX NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 63 2 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 63 3 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 63 4 average average NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 63 5 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 63 6 n n CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 63 7 observations observation NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 63 8 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 64 1 Sample sample JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 64 2 partial partial JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 64 3 autocorrelation autocorrelation NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 64 4 function function NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 64 5 measures measure VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 64 6 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 64 7 correlation correlation NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 64 8 between between IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 64 9 two two CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 64 10 points point NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 64 11 that that WDT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 64 12 are be VBP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 64 13 separated separate VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 64 14 by by IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 64 15 some some DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 64 16 number number NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 64 17 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 64 18 periods period NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 64 19 but but CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 64 20 with with IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 64 21 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 64 22 effect effect NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 64 23 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 64 24 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 64 25 intervening intervene VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 64 26 correlations correlation NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 64 27 removed remove VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 64 28 in in IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 64 29 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 64 30 series series NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 64 31 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 65 1 Given give VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 65 2 a a DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 65 3 time time NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 65 4 series series NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 65 5 X X NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 65 6 t t NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 65 7 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 65 8 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 65 9 partial partial JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 65 10 autocorrelation autocorrelation NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 65 11 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 65 12 lag lag NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 65 13 k k NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 65 14 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 65 15 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 65 16 autocorrelation autocorrelation NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 65 17 between between IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 65 18 X x NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 65 19 t t NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 65 20 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 65 21 X X NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 65 22 t+k t+k NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 65 23 with with IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 65 24 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 65 25 linear linear JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 65 26 dependence dependence NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 65 27 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 65 28 X x NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 65 29 t t NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 65 30 on on IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 65 31 X x NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 65 32 t+1 t+1 NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 65 33 through through IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 65 34 X x NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 65 35 t+k−1 t+k−1 NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 65 36 removed remove VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 65 37 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 66 1 The the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 66 2 sample sample NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 66 3 partial partial JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 66 4 autocorrelation autocorrelation NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 66 5 function function NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 66 6 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 66 7 defined define VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 66 8 as as IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 66 9 [ [ -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 66 10 5 5 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 66 11 ] ] -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 66 12 _SP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 67 1 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 67 2 r r NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 67 3 k k NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 67 4 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 67 5 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 67 6 sample sample NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 67 7 autocorrelation autocorrelation NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 67 8 at at IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 67 9 lag lag NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 68 1 k. k. NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 68 2 RMSE RMSE NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 68 3 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 68 4 a a DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 68 5 frequently frequently RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 68 6 used use VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 68 7 measure measure NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 68 8 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 68 9 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 68 10 difference difference NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 68 11 between between IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 68 12 values value NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 68 13 predicted predict VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 68 14 by by IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 68 15 a a DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 68 16 model model NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 68 17 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 68 18 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 68 19 values value NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 68 20 actually actually RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 68 21 observed observe VBD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 68 22 from from IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 68 23 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 68 24 environment environment NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 68 25 that that WDT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 68 26 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 68 27 being be VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 68 28 modelled model VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 68 29 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 69 1 These these DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 69 2 individual individual JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 69 3 differences difference NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 69 4 are be VBP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 69 5 also also RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 69 6 called call VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 69 7 residuals residual NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 69 8 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 69 9 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 69 10 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 69 11 RMSE RMSE NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 69 12 serves serve VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 69 13 to to TO cord-162105-u0w56xrp 69 14 aggregate aggregate VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 69 15 them -PRON- PRP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 69 16 into into IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 69 17 a a DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 69 18 single single JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 69 19 measure measure NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 69 20 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 69 21 predictive predictive JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 69 22 power power NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 69 23 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 70 1 The the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 70 2 RMSE rmse NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 70 3 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 70 4 a a DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 70 5 model model NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 70 6 prediction prediction NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 70 7 with with IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 70 8 respect respect NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 70 9 to to IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 70 10 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 70 11 estimated estimate VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 70 12 variable variable JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 70 13 X x NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 70 14 model model NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 70 15 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 70 16 defined define VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 70 17 as as IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 70 18 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 70 19 square square JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 70 20 root root NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 70 21 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 70 22 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 70 23 mean mean NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 70 24 squared squared NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 70 25 error error NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 70 26 [ [ -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 70 27 6 6 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 70 28 ] ] -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 70 29 _SP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 70 30 whereŷ whereŷ NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 71 1 i i PRP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 71 2 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 71 3 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 71 4 predicted predict VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 71 5 values value NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 71 6 , , . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 72 1 y y NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 72 2 i i PRP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 72 3 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 72 4 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 72 5 actual actual JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 72 6 value value NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 72 7 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 72 8 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 72 9 n n NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 72 10 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 72 11 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 72 12 number number NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 72 13 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 72 14 observations observation NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 72 15 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 73 1 The the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 73 2 AIC AIC NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 73 3 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 73 4 a a DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 73 5 measure measure NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 73 6 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 73 7 how how WRB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 73 8 well well RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 73 9 a a DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 73 10 model model NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 73 11 fits fit VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 73 12 a a DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 73 13 dataset dataset NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 73 14 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 73 15 penalizing penalize VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 73 16 models model NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 73 17 that that WDT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 73 18 are be VBP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 73 19 so so RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 73 20 flexible flexible JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 73 21 that that IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 73 22 they -PRON- PRP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 73 23 would would MD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 73 24 also also RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 73 25 fit fit VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 73 26 unrelated unrelated JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 73 27 datasets dataset NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 73 28 just just RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 73 29 as as RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 73 30 well well RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 73 31 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 74 1 The the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 74 2 general general JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 74 3 form form NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 74 4 for for IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 74 5 calculating calculate VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 74 6 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 74 7 AIC AIC NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 74 8 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 74 9 [ [ -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 74 10 5 5 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 74 11 ] ] -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 74 12 AIC AIC NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 74 13 p p NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 74 14 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 74 15 q q NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 74 16 = = NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 75 1 −2 −2 NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 75 2 ln(maximized ln(maximize VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 75 3 likelihood likelihood NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 75 4 ) ) -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 75 5 + + CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 76 1 2r 2r NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 76 2 n n CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 76 3 where where WRB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 76 4 n n NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 76 5 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 76 6 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 76 7 sample sample NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 76 8 size size NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 76 9 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 76 10 r r NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 76 11 = = NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 76 12 p p NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 77 1 + + CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 78 1 q q NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 78 2 + + CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 78 3 1 1 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 78 4 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 78 5 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 78 6 number number NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 78 7 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 78 8 estimated estimate VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 78 9 parameters parameter NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 78 10 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 78 11 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 78 12 including include VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 78 13 a a DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 78 14 constant constant JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 78 15 term term NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 78 16 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 79 1 The the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 79 2 Ljung−Box Ljung−Box NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 79 3 statistic statistic NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 79 4 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 79 5 also also RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 79 6 called call VBD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 79 7 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 79 8 modified modify VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 79 9 Box Box NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 79 10 - - HYPH cord-162105-u0w56xrp 79 11 Pierce Pierce NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 79 12 statistic statistic NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 79 13 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 79 14 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 79 15 a a DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 79 16 function function NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 79 17 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 79 18 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 79 19 accumulated accumulate VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 79 20 sample sample NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 79 21 autocorrelation autocorrelation NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 79 22 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 79 23 r r NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 79 24 j j NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 79 25 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 79 26 up up IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 79 27 to to IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 79 28 any any DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 79 29 specified specify VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 79 30 time time NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 79 31 lag lag NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 79 32 m. m. NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 80 1 This this DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 80 2 statistic statistic NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 80 3 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 80 4 used use VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 80 5 to to TO cord-162105-u0w56xrp 80 6 test test VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 80 7 whether whether IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 80 8 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 80 9 residuals residual NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 80 10 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 80 11 a a DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 80 12 series series NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 80 13 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 80 14 observations observation NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 80 15 over over IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 80 16 time time NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 80 17 are be VBP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 80 18 random random JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 80 19 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 80 20 independent independent JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 80 21 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 81 1 The the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 81 2 null null JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 81 3 hypothesis hypothesis NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 81 4 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 81 5 that that IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 81 6 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 81 7 model model NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 81 8 does do VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 81 9 not not RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 81 10 exhibit exhibit VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 81 11 lack lack NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 81 12 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 81 13 fit fit NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 81 14 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 81 15 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 81 16 alternative alternative JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 81 17 hypothesis hypothesis NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 81 18 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 81 19 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 81 20 model model NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 81 21 exhibits exhibit VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 81 22 lack lack NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 81 23 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 81 24 fit fit NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 81 25 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 82 1 The the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 82 2 test test NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 82 3 statistic statistic NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 82 4 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 82 5 defined define VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 82 6 as as IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 82 7 [ [ -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 82 8 5 5 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 82 9 ] ] -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 82 10 _SP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 82 11 wherer wherer NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 82 12 2 2 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 83 1 k k NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 83 2 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 83 3 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 83 4 estimated estimate VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 83 5 autocorrelation autocorrelation NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 83 6 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 83 7 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 83 8 series series NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 83 9 at at IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 83 10 lag lag NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 84 1 k k NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 84 2 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 84 3 m m NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 84 4 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 84 5 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 84 6 number number NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 84 7 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 84 8 lags lag NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 84 9 being be VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 84 10 tested test VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 84 11 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 84 12 n n NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 84 13 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 84 14 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 84 15 sample sample NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 84 16 size size NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 84 17 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 84 18 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 84 19 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 84 20 given give VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 84 21 statistic statistic NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 84 22 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 84 23 approximately approximately RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 84 24 Chi Chi NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 84 25 Square Square NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 84 26 distributed distribute VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 84 27 with with IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 84 28 h h NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 84 29 degrees degree NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 84 30 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 84 31 freedom freedom NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 84 32 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 84 33 where where WRB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 84 34 h h NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 84 35 = = SYM cord-162105-u0w56xrp 84 36 m m NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 84 37 − − NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 84 38 p p NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 84 39 − − NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 84 40 q. q. NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 84 41 Conditional conditional JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 84 42 sum sum NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 84 43 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 84 44 squares square NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 84 45 was be VBD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 84 46 utilized utilize VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 84 47 to to TO cord-162105-u0w56xrp 84 48 find find VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 84 49 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 84 50 starting start VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 84 51 values value NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 84 52 in in IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 84 53 estimating estimate VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 84 54 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 84 55 parameters parameter NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 84 56 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 84 57 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 84 58 SARIMA SARIMA NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 84 59 process process NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 84 60 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 85 1 The the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 85 2 formula formula NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 85 3 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 85 4 given give VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 85 5 by by IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 85 6 [ [ -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 85 7 7 7 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 85 8 ] ] -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 85 9 θ θ NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 85 10 n n NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 85 11 = = NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 85 12 arg arg NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 85 13 min min NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 86 1 θ∈ θ∈ NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 87 1 s s NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 87 2 n n NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 87 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 87 4 θ θ NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 87 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 87 6 ( ( -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 87 7 5 5 LS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 87 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 87 9 where where WRB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 87 10 According accord VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 87 11 to to IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 87 12 [ [ -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 87 13 7 7 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 87 14 ] ] -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 87 15 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 87 16 once once IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 87 17 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 87 18 model model NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 87 19 order order NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 87 20 has have VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 87 21 been be VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 87 22 identified identify VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 87 23 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 87 24 maximum maximum JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 87 25 likelihood likelihood NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 87 26 was be VBD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 87 27 used use VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 87 28 to to TO cord-162105-u0w56xrp 87 29 estimate estimate VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 87 30 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 87 31 parameters parameter NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 87 32 c c NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 87 33 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 87 34 φ φ NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 87 35 1 1 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 87 36 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 87 37 ... ... NFP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 87 38 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 87 39 φ φ NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 87 40 p p NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 87 41 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 87 42 θ θ NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 87 43 1 1 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 87 44 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 87 45 ... ... NFP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 87 46 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 88 1 θ θ NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 88 2 q q NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 88 3 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 89 1 This this DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 89 2 method method NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 89 3 finds find VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 89 4 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 89 5 values value NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 89 6 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 89 7 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 89 8 parameters parameter NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 89 9 which which WDT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 89 10 maximize maximize VBP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 89 11 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 89 12 probability probability NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 89 13 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 89 14 getting get VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 89 15 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 89 16 data datum NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 89 17 that that WDT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 89 18 has have VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 89 19 been be VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 89 20 observed observe VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 89 21 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 90 1 For for IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 90 2 SARIMA SARIMA NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 90 3 models model NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 90 4 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 90 5 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 90 6 process process NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 90 7 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 90 8 very very RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 90 9 similar similar JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 90 10 to to IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 90 11 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 90 12 least least JJS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 90 13 squares square NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 90 14 estimates estimate NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 90 15 that that WDT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 90 16 would would MD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 90 17 be be VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 90 18 obtained obtain VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 90 19 by by IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 90 20 minimizing minimize VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 90 21 where where WRB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 90 22 ε ε NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 90 23 t t NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 90 24 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 90 25 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 90 26 error error NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 90 27 term term NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 90 28 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 91 1 Box−Cox Box−Cox NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 92 1 Transformation transformation NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 92 2 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 92 3 applied apply VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 92 4 to to TO cord-162105-u0w56xrp 92 5 stabilize stabilize VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 92 6 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 92 7 variance variance NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 92 8 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 92 9 a a DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 92 10 time time NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 92 11 series series NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 92 12 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 93 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 93 2 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 93 3 a a DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 93 4 family family NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 93 5 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 93 6 transformations transformation NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 93 7 that that WDT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 93 8 includes include VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 93 9 logarithms logarithm NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 93 10 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 93 11 power power NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 93 12 transformation transformation NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 93 13 which which WDT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 93 14 depend depend VBP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 93 15 on on IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 93 16 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 93 17 parameter parameter NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 93 18 λ λ NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 93 19 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 93 20 are be VBP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 93 21 defined define VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 93 22 as as IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 93 23 follows follow VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 93 24 [ [ -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 93 25 8 8 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 93 26 ] ] -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 93 27 _SP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 93 28 where where WRB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 93 29 y y NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 93 30 i i PRP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 93 31 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 93 32 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 93 33 original original JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 93 34 time time NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 93 35 series series NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 93 36 values value NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 93 37 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 93 38 w w NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 93 39 i i PRP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 93 40 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 93 41 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 93 42 transformed transform VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 93 43 time time NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 93 44 series series NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 93 45 values value NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 93 46 using use VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 93 47 Box Box NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 93 48 - - HYPH cord-162105-u0w56xrp 93 49 Cox Cox NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 93 50 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 93 51 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 93 52 λ λ NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 93 53 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 93 54 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 93 55 parameter parameter NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 93 56 for for IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 93 57 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 93 58 transformation transformation NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 93 59 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 94 1 R r NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 94 2 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 94 3 a a DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 94 4 programming programming NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 94 5 language language NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 94 6 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 94 7 free free JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 94 8 software software NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 94 9 environment environment NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 94 10 for for IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 94 11 statistical statistical JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 94 12 computing computing NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 94 13 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 94 14 graphics graphic NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 94 15 that that WDT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 94 16 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 94 17 supported support VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 94 18 by by IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 94 19 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 94 20 R R NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 94 21 Foundation Foundation NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 94 22 for for IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 94 23 Statistical Statistical NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 94 24 Computing Computing NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 94 25 [ [ -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 94 26 9 9 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 94 27 ] ] -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 94 28 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 95 1 R r NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 95 2 includes include VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 95 3 linear linear JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 95 4 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 95 5 nonlinear nonlinear JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 95 6 modeling modeling NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 95 7 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 95 8 classical classical JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 95 9 statistical statistical JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 95 10 tests test NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 95 11 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 95 12 time time NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 95 13 - - HYPH cord-162105-u0w56xrp 95 14 series series NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 95 15 analysis analysis NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 95 16 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 95 17 classification classification NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 95 18 modeling modeling NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 95 19 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 95 20 clustering clustering NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 95 21 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 95 22 etc etc FW cord-162105-u0w56xrp 95 23 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 96 1 The the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 96 2 ' ' `` cord-162105-u0w56xrp 96 3 forecast forecast NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 96 4 ' ' '' cord-162105-u0w56xrp 96 5 package package NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 96 6 [ [ -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 96 7 7 7 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 96 8 ] ] -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 96 9 was be VBD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 96 10 utilized utilize VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 96 11 to to TO cord-162105-u0w56xrp 96 12 generate generate VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 96 13 time time NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 96 14 series series NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 96 15 plots plot NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 96 16 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 96 17 autocorrelation autocorrelation NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 96 18 function function NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 96 19 / / SYM cord-162105-u0w56xrp 96 20 partial partial JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 96 21 autocorrelation autocorrelation NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 96 22 function function NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 96 23 plots plot NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 96 24 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 96 25 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 96 26 forecasting forecasting NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 96 27 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 97 1 Also also RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 97 2 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 97 3 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 97 4 ' ' `` cord-162105-u0w56xrp 97 5 tseries tserie NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 97 6 ' ' POS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 97 7 package package NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 97 8 [ [ -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 97 9 10 10 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 97 10 ] ] -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 97 11 was be VBD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 97 12 used use VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 97 13 to to TO cord-162105-u0w56xrp 97 14 perform perform VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 97 15 Augmented augment VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 97 16 Dickey Dickey NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 97 17 - - HYPH cord-162105-u0w56xrp 97 18 Fuller Fuller NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 97 19 ( ( -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 97 20 ADF ADF NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 97 21 ) ) -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 97 22 to to TO cord-162105-u0w56xrp 97 23 test test VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 97 24 stationarity stationarity NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 97 25 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 98 1 Moreover moreover RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 98 2 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 98 3 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 98 4 ' ' `` cord-162105-u0w56xrp 98 5 lmtest lmt JJS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 98 6 ' ' '' cord-162105-u0w56xrp 98 7 package package NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 98 8 [ [ -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 98 9 11 11 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 98 10 ] ] -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 98 11 was be VBD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 98 12 used use VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 98 13 to to TO cord-162105-u0w56xrp 98 14 test test VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 98 15 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 98 16 parameters parameter NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 98 17 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 98 18 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 98 19 SARIMA SARIMA NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 98 20 model model NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 98 21 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 99 1 Finally finally RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 99 2 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 99 3 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 99 4 ' ' `` cord-162105-u0w56xrp 99 5 ggplot2 ggplot2 NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 99 6 ' ' '' cord-162105-u0w56xrp 99 7 [ [ -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 99 8 12 12 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 99 9 ] ] -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 99 10 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 99 11 ' ' `` cord-162105-u0w56xrp 99 12 tidyr tidyr NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 99 13 ' ' '' cord-162105-u0w56xrp 99 14 [ [ -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 99 15 13 13 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 99 16 ] ] -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 99 17 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 99 18 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 99 19 ' ' `` cord-162105-u0w56xrp 99 20 dplyr dplyr NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 99 21 ' ' '' cord-162105-u0w56xrp 99 22 [ [ -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 99 23 14 14 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 99 24 ] ] -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 99 25 were be VBD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 99 26 used use VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 99 27 to to TO cord-162105-u0w56xrp 99 28 plot plot VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 99 29 time time NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 99 30 series series NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 99 31 data datum NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 99 32 considered consider VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 99 33 during during IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 99 34 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 99 35 conduct conduct NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 99 36 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 99 37 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 99 38 research research NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 99 39 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 100 1 Line line NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 100 2 plot plot NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 100 3 was be VBD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 100 4 used use VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 100 5 to to TO cord-162105-u0w56xrp 100 6 describe describe VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 100 7 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 100 8 behavior behavior NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 100 9 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 100 10 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 100 11 monthly monthly JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 100 12 foreign foreign JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 100 13 visitor visitor NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 100 14 arrivals arrival NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 100 15 in in IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 100 16 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 100 17 Philippines Philippines NNPS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 100 18 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 101 1 Figure figure NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 101 2 1 1 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 101 3 shows show VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 101 4 that that IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 101 5 there there EX cord-162105-u0w56xrp 101 6 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 101 7 an an DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 101 8 increasing increase VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 101 9 trend trend NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 101 10 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 101 11 a a DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 101 12 seasonality seasonality NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 101 13 pattern pattern NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 101 14 in in IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 101 15 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 101 16 time time NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 101 17 series series NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 101 18 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 102 1 Specifically specifically RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 102 2 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 102 3 there there EX cord-162105-u0w56xrp 102 4 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 102 5 a a DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 102 6 seasonal seasonal JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 102 7 increase increase NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 102 8 in in IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 102 9 monthly monthly JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 102 10 foreign foreign JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 102 11 visitor visitor NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 102 12 arrivals arrival NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 102 13 every every DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 102 14 December December NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 102 15 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 102 16 a a DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 102 17 seasonal seasonal JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 102 18 decrease decrease NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 102 19 every every DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 102 20 September September NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 102 21 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 103 1 These these DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 103 2 patterns pattern NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 103 3 suggest suggest VBP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 103 4 a a DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 103 5 seasonal seasonal JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 103 6 autoregressive autoregressive NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 103 7 integrated integrate VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 103 8 moving move VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 103 9 average average JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 103 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 103 11 SARIMA SARIMA NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 103 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 103 13 approach approach NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 103 14 in in IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 103 15 modeling model VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 103 16 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 103 17 forecasting forecast VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 103 18 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 103 19 monthly monthly JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 103 20 foreign foreign JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 103 21 visitor visitor NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 103 22 arrivals arrival NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 103 23 in in IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 103 24 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 103 25 Philippines Philippines NNPS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 103 26 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 104 1 Akaike Akaike NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 104 2 Information Information NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 104 3 Criterion Criterion NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 104 4 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 104 5 Root Root NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 104 6 Mean Mean NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 104 7 Squared Squared NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 104 8 Error Error NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 104 9 were be VBD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 104 10 used use VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 104 11 to to TO cord-162105-u0w56xrp 104 12 identify identify VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 104 13 which which WDT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 104 14 model model NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 104 15 was be VBD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 104 16 used use VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 104 17 to to TO cord-162105-u0w56xrp 104 18 model model VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 104 19 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 104 20 forecast forecast VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 104 21 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 104 22 monthly monthly JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 104 23 foreign foreign JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 104 24 visitor visitor NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 104 25 arrivals arrival NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 104 26 in in IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 104 27 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 104 28 Philippines Philippines NNPS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 104 29 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 105 1 Table table NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 105 2 1 1 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 105 3 shows show VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 105 4 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 105 5 top top JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 105 6 two two CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 105 7 SARIMA SARIMA NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 105 8 models model NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 105 9 based base VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 105 10 on on IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 105 11 AIC AIC NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 105 12 generated generate VBD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 105 13 using use VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 105 14 R. R. NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 105 15 ARIMA ARIMA NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 105 16 ( ( -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 105 17 1,1,1)×(1,0,1 1,1,1)×(1,0,1 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 105 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 105 19 12 12 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 105 20 has have VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 105 21 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 105 22 lowest low JJS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 105 23 AIC AIC NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 105 24 with with IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 105 25 a a DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 105 26 value value NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 105 27 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 105 28 −414.56 −414.56 NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 105 29 which which WDT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 105 30 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 105 31 followed follow VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 105 32 by by IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 105 33 ARIMA ARIMA NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 105 34 ( ( -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 105 35 1,1,1)×(1,0,1 1,1,1)×(1,0,1 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 105 36 ) ) -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 105 37 12 12 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 105 38 with with IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 105 39 an an DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 105 40 AIC AIC NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 105 41 value value NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 105 42 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 105 43 −414.51 −414.51 NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 105 44 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 106 1 Model model NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 106 2 estimation estimation NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 106 3 was be VBD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 106 4 performed perform VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 106 5 on on IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 106 6 both both DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 106 7 models model NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 106 8 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 106 9 generated generate VBD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 106 10 significant significant JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 106 11 parameters parameter NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 106 12 for for IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 106 13 both both DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 106 14 models model NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 106 15 ( ( -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 106 16 refer refer VBP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 106 17 to to IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 106 18 Appendix Appendix NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 106 19 A.2 A.2 NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 106 20 ) ) -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 106 21 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 107 1 Moreover moreover RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 107 2 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 107 3 diagnostic diagnostic JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 107 4 checking checking NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 107 5 was be VBD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 107 6 performed perform VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 107 7 to to TO cord-162105-u0w56xrp 107 8 assess assess VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 107 9 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 107 10 model model NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 107 11 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 108 1 Both both DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 108 2 models model NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 108 3 passed pass VBD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 108 4 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 108 5 checks check NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 108 6 using use VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 108 7 residual residual JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 108 8 versus versus IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 108 9 time time NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 108 10 plot plot NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 108 11 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 108 12 residual residual JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 108 13 versus versus FW cord-162105-u0w56xrp 108 14 fitted fitted JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 108 15 plot plot NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 108 16 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 108 17 normal normal JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 108 18 Q q NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 108 19 - - HYPH cord-162105-u0w56xrp 108 20 Q Q NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 108 21 plot plot NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 108 22 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 108 23 ACF ACF NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 108 24 graph graph NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 108 25 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 108 26 PACF PACF NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 108 27 graphs graph NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 108 28 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 108 29 Ljung Ljung NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 108 30 - - HYPH cord-162105-u0w56xrp 108 31 Box Box NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 108 32 test test NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 108 33 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 108 34 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 108 35 Shapiro Shapiro NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 108 36 - - HYPH cord-162105-u0w56xrp 108 37 Wilk Wilk NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 108 38 test test NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 108 39 ( ( -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 108 40 refer refer VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 108 41 to to IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 108 42 Appendix Appendix NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 108 43 A.3 A.3 NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 108 44 ) ) -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 108 45 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 109 1 Finally finally RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 109 2 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 109 3 forecast forecast NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 109 4 evaluation evaluation NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 109 5 was be VBD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 109 6 performed perform VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 109 7 to to TO cord-162105-u0w56xrp 109 8 measure measure VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 109 9 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 109 10 accuracy accuracy NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 109 11 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 109 12 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 109 13 model model NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 109 14 using use VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 109 15 an an DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 109 16 out out IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 109 17 - - HYPH cord-162105-u0w56xrp 109 18 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 109 19 - - HYPH cord-162105-u0w56xrp 109 20 sample sample NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 109 21 data datum NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 109 22 set set NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 109 23 ( ( -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 109 24 refer refer VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 109 25 to to IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 109 26 Appendix Appendix NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 109 27 A.4 A.4 NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 109 28 ) ) -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 109 29 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 110 1 ARIMA ARIMA NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 110 2 ( ( -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 110 3 1,1,1)×(1,0,1 1,1,1)×(1,0,1 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 110 4 ) ) -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 111 1 12 12 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 111 2 produced produce VBD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 111 3 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 111 4 lowest low JJS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 111 5 RMSE rmse NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 111 6 relative relative NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 111 7 to to IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 111 8 ARIMA ARIMA NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 111 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 111 10 0,1,2)×(1,0,1 0,1,2)×(1,0,1 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 111 11 ) ) -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 112 1 12 12 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 112 2 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 113 1 Hence hence RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 113 2 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 113 3 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 113 4 former former JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 113 5 was be VBD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 113 6 used use VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 113 7 to to TO cord-162105-u0w56xrp 113 8 forecast forecast VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 113 9 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 113 10 monthly monthly JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 113 11 foreign foreign JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 113 12 visitor visitor NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 113 13 arrivals arrival NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 113 14 in in IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 113 15 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 113 16 Philippines Philippines NNPS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 113 17 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 114 1 ing e VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 114 2 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 114 3 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 114 4 Pandemic Pandemic NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 114 5 Crisis Crisis NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 114 6 Figure Figure NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 114 7 2 2 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 114 8 shows show VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 114 9 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 114 10 estimated estimate VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 114 11 earnings earning NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 114 12 loss loss NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 114 13 ( ( -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 114 14 in in IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 114 15 billion billion CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 114 16 pesos peso NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 114 17 ) ) -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 114 18 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 114 19 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 114 20 tourism tourism NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 114 21 industry industry NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 114 22 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 114 23 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 114 24 Philippines Philippines NNPS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 114 25 every every DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 114 26 month month NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 114 27 from from IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 114 28 April April NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 114 29 2020 2020 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 114 30 to to IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 114 31 December December NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 114 32 2020 2020 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 114 33 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 115 1 According accord VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 115 2 to to IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 115 3 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 115 4 Department Department NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 115 5 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 115 6 Tourism Tourism NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 115 7 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 115 8 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 115 9 Average Average NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 115 10 Daily Daily NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 115 11 Expenditure Expenditure NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 115 12 ( ( -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 115 13 ADE ADE NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 115 14 ) ) -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 115 15 for for IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 115 16 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 115 17 month month NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 115 18 in in IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 115 19 review review NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 115 20 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 115 21 P p NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 115 22 8,423.98 8,423.98 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 115 23 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 115 24 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 115 25 Average average JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 115 26 Length length NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 115 27 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 115 28 Stay stay VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 115 29 ( ( -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 115 30 ALoS ALoS NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 115 31 ) ) -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 115 32 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 115 33 tourists tourist NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 115 34 in in IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 115 35 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 115 36 country country NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 115 37 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 115 38 recorded record VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 115 39 at at IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 115 40 7.11 7.11 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 115 41 nights night NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 115 42 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 116 1 The the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 116 2 figures figure NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 116 3 were be VBD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 116 4 generated generate VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 116 5 by by IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 116 6 multiplying multiply VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 116 7 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 116 8 forecasted forecast VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 116 9 monthly monthly JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 116 10 foreign foreign JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 116 11 visitor visitor NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 116 12 arrivals arrival NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 116 13 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 116 14 ADE ADE NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 116 15 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 116 16 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 116 17 ALoS ALoS NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 116 18 ( ( -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 116 19 rounded round VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 116 20 to to IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 116 21 7 7 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 116 22 ) ) -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 116 23 [ [ -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 116 24 2 2 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 116 25 ] ] -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 116 26 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 117 1 Moreover moreover RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 117 2 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 117 3 it -PRON- PRP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 117 4 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 117 5 forecasted forecast VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 117 6 under under IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 117 7 community community NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 117 8 quarantine quarantine NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 117 9 that that WDT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 117 10 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 117 11 recovery recovery NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 117 12 time time NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 117 13 will will MD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 117 14 take take VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 117 15 around around RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 117 16 four four CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 117 17 to to TO cord-162105-u0w56xrp 117 18 five five CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 117 19 months month NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 117 20 ( ( -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 117 21 up up IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 117 22 to to IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 117 23 July July NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 117 24 ) ) -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 118 1 [ [ -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 118 2 15 15 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 118 3 ] ] -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 118 4 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 119 1 With with IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 119 2 this this DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 119 3 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 119 4 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 119 5 estimated estimate VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 119 6 earning earning NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 119 7 loss loss NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 119 8 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 119 9 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 119 10 country country NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 119 11 in in IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 119 12 terms term NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 119 13 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 119 14 tourism tourism NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 119 15 will will MD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 119 16 be be VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 119 17 around around RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 119 18 170.5 170.5 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 119 19 billion billion CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 119 20 pesos peso NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 119 21 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 120 1 Based base VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 120 2 on on IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 120 3 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 120 4 results result NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 120 5 presented present VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 120 6 on on IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 120 7 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 120 8 study study NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 120 9 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 120 10 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 120 11 following follow VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 120 12 findings finding NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 120 13 were be VBD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 120 14 drawn draw VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 120 15 : : : cord-162105-u0w56xrp 121 1 1 1 LS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 121 2 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 122 1 The the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 122 2 order order NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 122 3 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 122 4 SARIMA SARIMA NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 122 5 model model NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 122 6 used use VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 122 7 to to TO cord-162105-u0w56xrp 122 8 forecast forecast VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 122 9 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 122 10 monthly monthly JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 122 11 foreign foreign JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 122 12 visitor visitor NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 122 13 arrival arrival NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 122 14 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 122 15 ARIMA ARIMA NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 122 16 ( ( -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 122 17 1,1,1)×(1,0,1 1,1,1)×(1,0,1 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 122 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 122 19 12 12 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 122 20 since since IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 122 21 it -PRON- PRP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 122 22 produced produce VBD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 122 23 a a DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 122 24 relatively relatively RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 122 25 low low JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 122 26 AIC AIC NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 122 27 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 122 28 −414.51 −414.51 NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 122 29 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 122 30 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 122 31 lowest low JJS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 122 32 RMSE rmse NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 122 33 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 122 34 47884.85 47884.85 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 122 35 using use VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 122 36 an an DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 122 37 out out IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 122 38 - - HYPH cord-162105-u0w56xrp 122 39 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 122 40 - - HYPH cord-162105-u0w56xrp 122 41 sample sample NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 122 42 data datum NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 122 43 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 123 1 This this DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 123 2 means mean VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 123 3 that that IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 123 4 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 123 5 model model NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 123 6 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 123 7 relatively relatively RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 123 8 better well JJR cord-162105-u0w56xrp 123 9 among among IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 123 10 other other JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 123 11 SARIMA SARIMA NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 123 12 models model NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 123 13 considered consider VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 123 14 in in IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 123 15 forecasting forecast VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 123 16 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 123 17 monthly monthly JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 123 18 foreign foreign JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 123 19 visitor visitor NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 123 20 arrivals arrival NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 123 21 in in IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 123 22 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 123 23 Philippines Philippines NNPS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 123 24 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 124 1 2 2 LS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 124 2 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 125 1 If if IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 125 2 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 125 3 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 125 4 Pandemic Pandemic NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 125 5 lasts last VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 125 6 up up IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 125 7 to to TO cord-162105-u0w56xrp 125 8 five five CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 125 9 months month NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 125 10 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 125 11 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 125 12 tourism tourism NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 125 13 industry industry NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 125 14 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 125 15 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 125 16 Philippines Philippines NNPS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 125 17 will will MD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 125 18 have have VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 125 19 an an DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 125 20 estimated estimate VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 125 21 earnings earning NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 125 22 loss loss NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 125 23 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 125 24 about about IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 125 25 P p NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 125 26 170.5 170.5 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 125 27 billion billion CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 125 28 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 126 1 Assumptions assumption NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 126 2 about about IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 126 3 average average JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 126 4 daily daily JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 126 5 expenditure expenditure NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 126 6 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 126 7 average average JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 126 8 length length NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 126 9 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 126 10 stay stay NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 126 11 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 126 12 tourists tourist NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 126 13 were be VBD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 126 14 based base VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 126 15 on on IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 126 16 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 126 17 Department Department NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 126 18 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 126 19 Tourism Tourism NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 126 20 reports report VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 126 21 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 127 1 The the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 127 2 projected project VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 127 3 P p NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 127 4 170.5 170.5 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 127 5 billion billion CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 127 6 loss loss NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 127 7 on on IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 127 8 Philippines Philippines NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 127 9 foreign foreign JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 127 10 tourism tourism NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 127 11 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 127 12 really really RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 127 13 a a DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 127 14 huge huge JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 127 15 money money NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 127 16 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 128 1 Regaining regain VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 128 2 such such JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 128 3 loss loss NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 128 4 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 128 5 soonest soon JJS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 128 6 time time NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 128 7 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 128 8 however however RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 128 9 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 128 10 would would MD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 128 11 only only RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 128 12 jeopardize jeopardize VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 128 13 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 128 14 lives life NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 128 15 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 128 16 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 128 17 Filipino filipino JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 128 18 people people NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 128 19 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 129 1 On on IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 129 2 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 129 3 other other JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 129 4 hand hand NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 129 5 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 129 6 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 129 7 government government NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 129 8 can can MD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 129 9 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 129 10 perhaps perhaps RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 129 11 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 129 12 reopen reopen VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 129 13 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 129 14 Philippines Philippines NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 129 15 domestic domestic JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 129 16 tourism tourism NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 129 17 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 130 1 This this DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 130 2 would would MD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 130 3 somehow somehow RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 130 4 help help VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 130 5 regain regain VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 130 6 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 130 7 countrys countrys JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 130 8 loss loss NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 130 9 on on IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 130 10 revenue revenue NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 130 11 from from IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 130 12 tourism tourism NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 130 13 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 130 14 although although IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 130 15 not not RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 130 16 fully fully RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 130 17 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 131 1 However however RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 131 2 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 131 3 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 131 4 following follow VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 131 5 recommendations recommendation NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 131 6 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 131 7 shown show VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 131 8 in in IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 131 9 scenarios scenario NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 131 10 / / SYM cord-162105-u0w56xrp 131 11 options option NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 131 12 below below RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 131 13 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 131 14 may may MD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 131 15 be be VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 131 16 helpful helpful JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 131 17 in in IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 131 18 regaining regain VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 131 19 it -PRON- PRP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 131 20 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 131 21 both both CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 131 22 in in IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 131 23 foreign foreign JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 131 24 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 131 25 domestic domestic JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 131 26 tourism tourism NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 131 27 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 131 28 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 131 29 ensuring ensure VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 131 30 safety safety NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 131 31 among among IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 131 32 Filipinos Filipinos NNPS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 131 33 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 131 34 as as RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 131 35 well well RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 131 36 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 132 1 1 1 LS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 132 2 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 133 1 Option option NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 133 2 1 1 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 133 3 : : : cord-162105-u0w56xrp 133 4 Stop stop VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 133 5 foreign foreign JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 133 6 tourism tourism NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 133 7 until until IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 133 8 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 133 9 availability availability NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 133 10 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 133 11 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 133 12 vaccine vaccine NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 133 13 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 133 14 but but CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 133 15 gradually gradually RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 133 16 open open JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 133 17 domestic domestic JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 133 18 tourism tourism NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 133 19 starting start VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 133 20 July July NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 133 21 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 133 22 2020 2020 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 133 23 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 134 1 In in IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 134 2 this this DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 134 3 scenario scenario NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 134 4 / / SYM cord-162105-u0w56xrp 134 5 option option NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 134 6 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 134 7 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 134 8 following follow VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 134 9 considerations consideration NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 134 10 may may MD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 134 11 be be VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 134 12 adhered adhere VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 134 13 to to IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 134 14 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 134 15 viz viz NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 134 16 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 135 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 135 2 a a LS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 135 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 135 4 not not RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 135 5 all all DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 135 6 domestic domestic JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 135 7 tourism tourism NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 135 8 shall shall MD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 135 9 be be VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 135 10 reopened reopen VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 135 11 in in IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 135 12 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 135 13 entire entire JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 135 14 country country NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 1 ; ; : cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 2 only only RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 3 those those DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 4 areas area NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 5 with with IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 6 zero zero CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 7 covid-19 covid-19 NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 8 cases case NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 9 ; ; , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 11 b b NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 13 for for IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 14 areas area NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 15 where where WRB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 16 domestic domestic JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 17 tourism tourism NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 18 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 19 allowed allow VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 20 / / SYM cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 21 reopened reopen VBD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 22 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 23 appropriate appropriate JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 24 guidelines guideline NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 25 should should MD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 26 be be VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 27 strictly strictly RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 28 implemented implement VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 29 by by IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 30 concerned concerned JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 31 departments department NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 32 / / SYM cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 33 agencies agency NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 34 to to TO cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 35 eliminate eliminate VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 36 / / SYM cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 37 prevent prevent VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 38 covid-19 covid-19 NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 39 transmission transmission NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 40 ; ; : cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 41 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 42 ( ( -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 43 c c NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 44 ) ) -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 45 digital digital JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 46 code code NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 47 that that WDT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 48 would would MD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 49 help help VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 50 in in IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 51 tracing trace VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 52 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 53 contacts contact NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 54 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 55 whereabouts whereabout NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 56 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 57 domestic domestic JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 58 tourists tourist NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 59 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 60 as as IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 61 being be VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 62 used use VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 63 in in IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 64 China China NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 65 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 66 Singapore Singapore NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 67 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 68 should should MD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 69 be be VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 70 installed instal VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 71 before before IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 72 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 73 reopening reopening NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 74 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 75 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 76 domestic domestic JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 77 tourism tourism NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 136 78 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 137 1 2 2 LS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 137 2 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 138 1 Option option NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 138 2 2 2 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 138 3 : : : cord-162105-u0w56xrp 139 1 Gradual gradual JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 139 2 opening opening NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 139 3 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 139 4 foreign foreign JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 139 5 tourism tourism NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 139 6 starting start VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 139 7 July July NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 139 8 2020 2020 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 139 9 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 139 10 full full JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 139 11 reopening reopening NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 139 12 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 139 13 domestic domestic JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 139 14 tourism tourism NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 139 15 on on IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 139 16 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 139 17 first first JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 139 18 semester semester NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 139 19 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 139 20 2021 2021 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 139 21 or or CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 139 22 when when WRB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 139 23 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 139 24 covid-19 covid-19 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 139 25 cases case NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 139 26 in in IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 139 27 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 139 28 Philippines Philippines NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 139 29 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 139 30 already already RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 139 31 zero zero CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 139 32 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 140 1 However however RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 140 2 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 140 3 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 140 4 following follow VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 140 5 considerations consideration NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 140 6 should should MD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 140 7 be be VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 140 8 satisfied satisfied JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 140 9 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 140 10 viz viz NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 140 11 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 2 a a LS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 4 only only JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 5 countries country NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 6 with with IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 7 covid-19 covid-19 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 8 zero zero CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 9 cases case NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 10 are be VBP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 11 allowed allow VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 12 to to TO cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 13 enter enter VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 14 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 15 Philippines Philippines NNPS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 16 ; ; : cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 17 ( ( -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 18 b b LS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 19 ) ) -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 20 appropriate appropriate JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 21 guidelines guideline NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 22 should should MD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 23 be be VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 24 strictly strictly RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 25 implemented implement VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 26 by by IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 27 concerned concerned JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 28 departments/ departments/ , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 29 agencies agency NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 30 both both DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 31 for for IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 32 foreign foreign JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 33 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 34 domestic domestic JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 35 tourism tourism NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 36 to to IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 37 eliminate/ eliminate/ NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 38 prevent prevent VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 39 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 40 spread spread NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 41 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 42 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 43 said say VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 44 virus virus NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 45 ; ; , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 46 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 47 ( ( -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 48 c c NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 49 ) ) -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 50 digital digital JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 51 code code NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 52 that that WDT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 53 would would MD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 54 help help VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 55 in in IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 56 tracing trace VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 57 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 58 contacts contact NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 59 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 60 whereabouts whereabout NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 61 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 62 foreign foreign JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 63 tourists tourist NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 64 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 65 as as IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 66 being be VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 67 used use VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 68 in in IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 69 China China NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 70 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 71 Singapore Singapore NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 72 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 73 should should MD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 74 be be VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 75 installed instal VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 76 before before IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 77 reopening reopen VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 78 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 79 foreign foreign JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 80 tourism tourism NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 81 in in IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 82 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 83 Philippines Philippines NNPS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 141 84 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 142 1 A.1 A.1 NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 142 2 Model Model NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 142 3 Identification Identification NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 142 4 Fig Fig NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 142 5 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 143 1 3 3 LS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 143 2 : : : cord-162105-u0w56xrp 144 1 Line Line NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 144 2 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 144 3 ACF ACF NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 144 4 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 144 5 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 144 6 PACF PACF NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 144 7 Plot Plot NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 144 8 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 144 9 Monthly Monthly NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 144 10 Visitor Visitor NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 144 11 Arrivals Arrivals NNPS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 144 12 Line Line NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 144 13 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 144 14 ACF ACF NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 144 15 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 144 16 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 144 17 PACF PACF NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 144 18 graph graph NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 144 19 were be VBD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 144 20 used use VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 144 21 to to TO cord-162105-u0w56xrp 144 22 identify identify VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 144 23 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 144 24 model model NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 144 25 to to TO cord-162105-u0w56xrp 144 26 be be VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 144 27 used use VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 144 28 to to TO cord-162105-u0w56xrp 144 29 forecast forecast VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 144 30 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 144 31 monthly monthly JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 144 32 visitor visitor NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 144 33 arrivals arrival NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 144 34 in in IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 144 35 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 144 36 Philippines Philippines NNPS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 144 37 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 145 1 The the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 145 2 line line NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 145 3 graph graph NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 145 4 in in IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 145 5 Figure figure NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 145 6 3 3 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 145 7 shows show VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 145 8 an an DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 145 9 increasing increase VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 145 10 trend trend NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 145 11 which which WDT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 145 12 suggests suggest VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 145 13 a a DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 145 14 non non JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 145 15 - - JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 145 16 stationary stationary JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 145 17 behavior behavior NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 145 18 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 146 1 This this DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 146 2 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 146 3 supported support VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 146 4 by by IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 146 5 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 146 6 ACF ACF NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 146 7 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 146 8 PACF PACF NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 146 9 plots plot NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 146 10 which which WDT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 146 11 shows show VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 146 12 a a DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 146 13 slow slow JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 146 14 decay decay NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 146 15 in in IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 146 16 all all PDT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 146 17 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 146 18 lags lag NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 146 19 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 146 20 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 146 21 former former JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 146 22 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 146 23 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 146 24 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 146 25 first first JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 146 26 lag lag NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 146 27 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 146 28 significant significant JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 146 29 for for IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 146 30 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 146 31 latter latter JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 146 32 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 147 1 Moreover moreover RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 147 2 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 147 3 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 147 4 line line NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 147 5 plot plot NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 147 6 slightly slightly RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 147 7 display display VBP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 147 8 an an DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 147 9 increasing increase VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 147 10 variance variance NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 147 11 across across IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 147 12 time time NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 147 13 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 148 1 Therefore therefore RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 148 2 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 148 3 data datum NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 148 4 transformation transformation NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 148 5 such such JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 148 6 as as IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 148 7 differencing differencing NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 148 8 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 148 9 Box Box NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 148 10 - - HYPH cord-162105-u0w56xrp 148 11 Cox Cox NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 148 12 transform transform NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 148 13 were be VBD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 148 14 applied apply VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 148 15 to to IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 148 16 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 148 17 time time NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 148 18 series series NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 148 19 data datum NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 148 20 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 149 1 Figure figure NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 149 2 4 4 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 149 3 show show VBP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 149 4 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 149 5 line line NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 149 6 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 149 7 ACF ACF NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 149 8 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 149 9 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 149 10 PACF PACF NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 149 11 graph graph NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 149 12 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 149 13 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 149 14 transformed transform VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 149 15 data datum NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 149 16 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 150 1 The the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 150 2 line line NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 150 3 graph graph NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 150 4 shows show VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 150 5 that that IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 150 6 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 150 7 data data NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 150 8 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 150 9 stationary stationary JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 150 10 which which WDT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 150 11 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 150 12 supported support VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 150 13 by by IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 150 14 both both DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 150 15 ACF ACF NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 150 16 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 150 17 PACF PACF NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 150 18 graphs graph NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 150 19 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 151 1 Moreover moreover RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 151 2 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 151 3 ACF ACF NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 151 4 graph graph NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 151 5 suggests suggest VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 151 6 a a DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 151 7 seasonal seasonal JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 151 8 pattern pattern NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 151 9 in in IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 151 10 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 151 11 data datum NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 151 12 since since IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 151 13 12 12 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 151 14 th th XX cord-162105-u0w56xrp 151 15 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 151 16 24 24 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 151 17 th th XX cord-162105-u0w56xrp 151 18 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 151 19 36 36 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 151 20 th th XX cord-162105-u0w56xrp 151 21 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 151 22 48 48 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 151 23 th th XX cord-162105-u0w56xrp 151 24 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 151 25 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 151 26 60 60 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 151 27 th th XX cord-162105-u0w56xrp 151 28 lags lag NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 151 29 are be VBP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 151 30 significant significant JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 151 31 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 152 1 This this DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 152 2 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 152 3 also also RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 152 4 true true JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 152 5 in in IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 152 6 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 152 7 case case NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 152 8 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 152 9 PACF PACF NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 152 10 since since IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 152 11 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 152 12 12 12 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 152 13 th th XX cord-162105-u0w56xrp 152 14 lag lag NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 152 15 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 152 16 significant significant JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 152 17 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 153 1 Akaike Akaike NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 153 2 's 's POS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 153 3 Information Information NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 153 4 Criterion Criterion NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 153 5 ( ( -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 153 6 AIC AIC NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 153 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 153 8 was be VBD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 153 9 used use VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 153 10 to to TO cord-162105-u0w56xrp 153 11 identify identify VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 153 12 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 153 13 best good JJS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 153 14 SARIMA SARIMA NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 153 15 model model NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 153 16 from from IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 153 17 among among IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 153 18 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 153 19 models model NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 153 20 considered consider VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 153 21 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 154 1 Table table NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 154 2 2 2 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 154 3 shows show VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 154 4 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 154 5 top top JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 154 6 2 2 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 154 7 models model NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 154 8 with with IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 154 9 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 154 10 least least JJS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 154 11 AIC AIC NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 154 12 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 154 13 namely namely RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 154 14 : : : cord-162105-u0w56xrp 154 15 ARIMA ARIMA NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 154 16 ( ( -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 154 17 0,1,2)×(1,0,1 0,1,2)×(1,0,1 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 154 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 155 1 12 12 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 156 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 156 2 Model Model NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 156 3 1 1 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 156 4 ) ) -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 156 5 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 156 6 ARIMA ARIMA NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 156 7 ( ( -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 156 8 1,1,1)×(1,0,1 1,1,1)×(1,0,1 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 156 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 157 1 12 12 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 158 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 158 2 Model model NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 158 3 2)with 2)with CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 158 4 an an DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 158 5 AIC AIC NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 158 6 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 158 7 −414.56 −414.56 NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 158 8 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 158 9 −414.51 −414.51 NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 158 10 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 158 11 respectively respectively RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 158 12 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 159 1 The the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 159 2 combination combination NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 159 3 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 159 4 conditional conditional JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 159 5 sum sum NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 159 6 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 159 7 squares square NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 159 8 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 159 9 maximum maximum JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 159 10 likelihood likelihood NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 159 11 estimates estimate NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 159 12 were be VBD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 159 13 used use VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 159 14 to to TO cord-162105-u0w56xrp 159 15 estimate estimate VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 159 16 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 159 17 parameters parameter NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 159 18 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 159 19 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 159 20 three three CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 159 21 moving move VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 159 22 averages average NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 159 23 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 159 24 test test VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 159 25 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 159 26 significance significance NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 159 27 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 160 1 Table table NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 160 2 3 3 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 160 3 shows show VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 160 4 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 160 5 estimated estimate VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 160 6 coefficients coefficient NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 160 7 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 160 8 standard standard JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 160 9 errors error NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 160 10 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 160 11 z z NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 160 12 - - HYPH cord-162105-u0w56xrp 160 13 values value NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 160 14 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 160 15 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 160 16 p p NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 160 17 - - HYPH cord-162105-u0w56xrp 160 18 values value NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 160 19 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 160 20 each each DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 160 21 parameters parameter NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 160 22 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 160 23 ARIMA ARIMA NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 160 24 ( ( -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 160 25 0,1,2)×(1,0,1 0,1,2)×(1,0,1 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 160 26 ) ) -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 161 1 12 12 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 161 2 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 162 1 Since since IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 162 2 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 162 3 p p NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 162 4 - - HYPH cord-162105-u0w56xrp 162 5 value value NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 162 6 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 162 7 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 162 8 parameter parameter NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 162 9 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 162 10 less less JJR cord-162105-u0w56xrp 162 11 than than IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 162 12 0.05 0.05 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 162 13 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 162 14 there there EX cord-162105-u0w56xrp 162 15 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 162 16 sufficient sufficient JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 162 17 evidence evidence NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 162 18 to to TO cord-162105-u0w56xrp 162 19 say say VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 162 20 that that IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 162 21 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 162 22 estimate estimate NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 162 23 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 162 24 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 162 25 moving move VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 162 26 averages average NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 162 27 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 162 28 seasonal seasonal JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 162 29 autoregressive autoregressive NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 162 30 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 162 31 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 162 32 seasonal seasonal JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 162 33 moving move VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 162 34 average average NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 162 35 are be VBP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 162 36 significantly significantly RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 162 37 different different JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 162 38 from from IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 162 39 zero zero CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 162 40 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 163 1 The the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 163 2 combination combination NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 163 3 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 163 4 conditional conditional JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 163 5 sum sum NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 163 6 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 163 7 squares square NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 163 8 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 163 9 maximum maximum JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 163 10 likelihood likelihood NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 163 11 estimates estimate NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 163 12 were be VBD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 163 13 used use VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 163 14 to to TO cord-162105-u0w56xrp 163 15 estimate estimate VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 163 16 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 163 17 parameters parameter NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 163 18 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 163 19 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 163 20 three three CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 163 21 moving move VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 163 22 averages average NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 163 23 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 163 24 test test VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 163 25 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 163 26 significance significance NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 163 27 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 164 1 Table table NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 164 2 4 4 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 164 3 shows show VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 164 4 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 164 5 estimated estimate VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 164 6 coefficients coefficient NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 164 7 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 164 8 standard standard JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 164 9 12 12 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 164 10 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 165 1 Since since IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 165 2 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 165 3 p p NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 165 4 - - HYPH cord-162105-u0w56xrp 165 5 value value NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 165 6 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 165 7 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 165 8 parameter parameter NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 165 9 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 165 10 less less JJR cord-162105-u0w56xrp 165 11 than than IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 165 12 0.05 0.05 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 165 13 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 165 14 there there EX cord-162105-u0w56xrp 165 15 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 165 16 sufficient sufficient JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 165 17 evidence evidence NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 165 18 to to TO cord-162105-u0w56xrp 165 19 say say VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 165 20 that that IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 165 21 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 165 22 estimate estimate NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 165 23 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 165 24 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 165 25 moving move VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 165 26 averages average NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 165 27 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 165 28 seasonal seasonal JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 165 29 autoregressive autoregressive NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 165 30 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 165 31 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 165 32 seasonal seasonal JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 165 33 moving move VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 165 34 average average NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 165 35 are be VBP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 165 36 significantly significantly RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 165 37 different different JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 165 38 from from IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 165 39 zero zero CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 165 40 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 166 1 Residual residual JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 166 2 versus versus IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 166 3 Time Time NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 166 4 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 166 5 Residual Residual NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 166 6 versus versus IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 166 7 Fitted fit VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 166 8 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 166 9 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 166 10 Normal normal JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 166 11 Q Q NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 166 12 - - HYPH cord-162105-u0w56xrp 166 13 Q Q NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 166 14 Plot Plot NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 166 15 were be VBD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 166 16 used use VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 166 17 to to TO cord-162105-u0w56xrp 166 18 perform perform VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 166 19 diagnostic diagnostic JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 166 20 checking checking NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 166 21 for for IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 166 22 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 166 23 model model NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 166 24 whereas whereas IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 166 25 ACF ACF NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 166 26 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 166 27 PACF PACF NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 166 28 plots plot NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 166 29 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 166 30 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 166 31 residuals residual NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 166 32 were be VBD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 166 33 used use VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 166 34 to to TO cord-162105-u0w56xrp 166 35 check check VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 166 36 if if IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 166 37 there there EX cord-162105-u0w56xrp 166 38 are be VBP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 166 39 remaining remain VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 166 40 patterns pattern NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 166 41 that that WDT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 166 42 should should MD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 166 43 be be VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 166 44 accounted account VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 166 45 by by IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 166 46 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 166 47 model model NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 166 48 1 1 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 166 49 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 166 50 2 2 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 166 51 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 167 1 Graphs Graphs NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 167 2 for for IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 167 3 Model Model NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 167 4 1 1 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 167 5 are be VBP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 167 6 displayed display VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 167 7 in in IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 167 8 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 167 9 left left JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 167 10 whereas whereas IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 167 11 graphs graph NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 167 12 for for IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 167 13 Model Model NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 167 14 2 2 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 167 15 are be VBP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 167 16 displayed display VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 167 17 in in IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 167 18 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 167 19 right right NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 167 20 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 168 1 Figure figure NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 168 2 5 5 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 168 3 shows show VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 168 4 that that IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 168 5 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 168 6 residuals residual NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 168 7 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 168 8 time time NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 168 9 does do VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 168 10 not not RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 168 11 display display VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 168 12 correlation correlation NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 168 13 between between IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 168 14 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 168 15 two two CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 168 16 variables variable NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 168 17 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 169 1 Therefore therefore RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 169 2 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 169 3 this this DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 169 4 scatter scatter NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 169 5 plot plot NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 169 6 suggests suggest VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 169 7 that that IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 169 8 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 169 9 residuals residual NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 169 10 has have VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 169 11 no no DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 169 12 serial serial JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 169 13 correlation correlation NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 169 14 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 169 15 that that RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 169 16 is is RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 169 17 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 169 18 there there EX cord-162105-u0w56xrp 169 19 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 169 20 no no DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 169 21 interdependence interdependence NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 169 22 between between IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 169 23 time time NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 169 24 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 169 25 residuals residual NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 169 26 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 170 1 This this DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 170 2 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 170 3 supported support VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 170 4 by by IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 170 5 Ljung Ljung NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 170 6 - - HYPH cord-162105-u0w56xrp 170 7 Box Box NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 170 8 test test NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 170 9 which which WDT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 170 10 suggests suggest VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 170 11 that that IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 170 12 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 170 13 error error NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 170 14 terms term NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 170 15 behave behave VBP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 170 16 randomly randomly RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 170 17 for for IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 170 18 both both CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 170 19 Model Model NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 170 20 1 1 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 170 21 ( ( -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 170 22 Q(20 Q(20 NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 170 23 ) ) -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 170 24 = = NFP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 171 1 20.109 20.109 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 171 2 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 171 3 df=20 df=20 XX cord-162105-u0w56xrp 171 4 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 171 5 Model Model NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 171 6 df=4 df=4 NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 171 7 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 171 8 p= p= NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 171 9 0.4511 0.4511 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 171 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 171 11 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 171 12 Model Model NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 171 13 2 2 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 171 14 ( ( -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 171 15 Q(20 Q(20 NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 171 16 ) ) -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 171 17 = = SYM cord-162105-u0w56xrp 171 18 20.941 20.941 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 171 19 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 171 20 df=20 df=20 XX cord-162105-u0w56xrp 171 21 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 171 22 Model Model NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 171 23 df=4 df=4 NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 171 24 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 171 25 p= p= NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 171 26 0.4006 0.4006 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 171 27 ) ) -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 171 28 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 172 1 In in IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 172 2 addition addition NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 172 3 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 172 4 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 172 5 residuals residual NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 172 6 versus versus IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 172 7 fitted fit VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 172 8 values value NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 172 9 scatter scatter VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 172 10 plot plot NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 172 11 displays display NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 172 12 no no DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 172 13 visible visible JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 172 14 funneling funneling NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 172 15 pattern pattern NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 172 16 which which WDT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 172 17 indicates indicate VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 172 18 that that IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 172 19 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 172 20 variances variance NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 172 21 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 172 22 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 172 23 error error NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 172 24 term term NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 172 25 are be VBP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 172 26 relatively relatively RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 172 27 equal equal JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 172 28 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 173 1 Moreover moreover RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 173 2 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 173 3 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 173 4 normal normal JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 173 5 Q q NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 173 6 - - HYPH cord-162105-u0w56xrp 173 7 Q q NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 173 8 plot plot NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 173 9 suggests suggest VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 173 10 that that IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 173 11 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 173 12 residuals residual NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 173 13 are be VBP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 173 14 normally normally RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 173 15 distributed distribute VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 173 16 since since IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 173 17 most most JJS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 173 18 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 173 19 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 173 20 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 173 21 values value NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 173 22 lie lie VBP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 173 23 along along IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 173 24 a a DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 173 25 line line NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 173 26 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 174 1 This this DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 174 2 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 174 3 supported support VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 174 4 by by IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 174 5 Shapiro Shapiro NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 174 6 - - HYPH cord-162105-u0w56xrp 174 7 Wilk Wilk NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 174 8 test test NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 174 9 which which WDT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 174 10 suggest suggest VBP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 174 11 that that IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 174 12 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 174 13 error error NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 174 14 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 174 15 normally normally RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 174 16 distributed distribute VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 174 17 for for IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 174 18 both both DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 174 19 Model Model NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 174 20 1 1 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 174 21 ( ( -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 174 22 W= W= NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 174 23 0.98062 0.98062 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 174 24 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 174 25 p= p= NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 174 26 0.2372 0.2372 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 174 27 ) ) -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 174 28 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 174 29 Model Model NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 174 30 2 2 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 174 31 ( ( -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 174 32 W= W= NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 174 33 0.9852 0.9852 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 174 34 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 174 35 p= p= NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 174 36 0.4513 0.4513 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 174 37 ) ) -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 174 38 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 175 1 Finally finally RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 175 2 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 175 3 Fig Fig NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 175 4 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 176 1 5 5 LS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 176 2 : : : cord-162105-u0w56xrp 177 1 Line Line NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 177 2 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 177 3 ACF ACF NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 177 4 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 177 5 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 177 6 PACF PACF NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 177 7 Plot Plot NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 177 8 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 177 9 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 177 10 Two Two NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 177 11 Models Models NNPS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 177 12 ACF ACF NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 177 13 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 177 14 PACF PACF NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 177 15 graphs graph NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 177 16 displays display NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 177 17 that that IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 177 18 all all DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 177 19 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 177 20 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 177 21 lags lag NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 177 22 are be VBP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 177 23 within within IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 177 24 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 177 25 acceptable acceptable JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 177 26 limits limit NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 177 27 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 178 1 Therefore therefore RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 178 2 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 178 3 all all PDT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 178 4 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 178 5 lags lag NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 178 6 are be VBP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 178 7 not not RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 178 8 significant significant JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 178 9 which which WDT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 178 10 means mean VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 178 11 that that IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 178 12 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 178 13 residuals residual NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 178 14 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 178 15 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 178 16 model model NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 178 17 may may MD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 178 18 be be VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 178 19 considered consider VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 178 20 as as IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 178 21 white white JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 178 22 noise noise NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 178 23 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 179 1 Hence hence RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 179 2 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 179 3 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 179 4 residuals residual NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 179 5 are be VBP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 179 6 assumed assume VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 179 7 to to TO cord-162105-u0w56xrp 179 8 be be VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 179 9 Guassian guassian JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 179 10 white white JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 179 11 noise noise NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 179 12 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 180 1 Figure figure NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 180 2 6 6 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 180 3 shows show VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 180 4 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 180 5 ACF ACF NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 180 6 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 180 7 PACF PACF NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 180 8 graphs graph NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 180 9 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 180 10 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 180 11 forecast forecast NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 180 12 errors error NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 180 13 both both DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 180 14 models model NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 180 15 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 181 1 All all DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 181 2 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 181 3 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 181 4 autocorrelation autocorrelation NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 181 5 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 181 6 partial partial JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 181 7 autocorrelation autocorrelation NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 181 8 are be VBP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 181 9 within within IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 181 10 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 181 11 limits limit NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 181 12 which which WDT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 181 13 means mean VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 181 14 that that IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 181 15 these these DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 181 16 values value NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 181 17 are be VBP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 181 18 not not RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 181 19 significant significant JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 181 20 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 182 1 Therefore therefore RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 182 2 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 182 3 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 182 4 forecast forecast NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 182 5 errors error NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 182 6 are be VBP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 182 7 considered consider VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 182 8 white white JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 182 9 noise noise NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 182 10 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 183 1 Shapiro Shapiro NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 183 2 - - HYPH cord-162105-u0w56xrp 183 3 Wilk Wilk NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 183 4 test test NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 183 5 was be VBD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 183 6 used use VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 183 7 to to TO cord-162105-u0w56xrp 183 8 test test VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 183 9 if if IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 183 10 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 183 11 forecast forecast NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 183 12 errors error NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 183 13 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 183 14 both both DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 183 15 models model NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 183 16 were be VBD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 183 17 normally normally RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 183 18 distributed distribute VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 183 19 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 184 1 The the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 184 2 results result NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 184 3 show show VBP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 184 4 that that IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 184 5 there there EX cord-162105-u0w56xrp 184 6 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 184 7 no no DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 184 8 sufficient sufficient JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 184 9 evidence evidence NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 184 10 to to TO cord-162105-u0w56xrp 184 11 say say VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 184 12 that that IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 184 13 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 184 14 forecast forecast NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 184 15 error error NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 184 16 terms term NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 184 17 are be VBP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 184 18 not not RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 184 19 normally normally RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 184 20 distributed distribute VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 184 21 for for IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 184 22 both both DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 184 23 Model Model NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 184 24 1 1 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 184 25 ( ( -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 184 26 W= W= NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 184 27 0.0.878 0.0.878 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 184 28 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 184 29 p= p= NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 184 30 0.082 0.082 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 184 31 ) ) -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 184 32 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 184 33 Model Model NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 184 34 2 2 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 184 35 ( ( -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 184 36 W= W= NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 184 37 0.875 0.875 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 184 38 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 184 39 p= p= NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 184 40 0.075 0.075 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 184 41 ) ) -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 184 42 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 185 1 This this DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 185 2 means mean VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 185 3 that that IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 185 4 it -PRON- PRP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 185 5 can can MD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 185 6 be be VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 185 7 assumed assume VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 185 8 that that IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 185 9 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 185 10 fore- fore- . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 186 1 Based base VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 186 2 on on IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 186 3 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 186 4 diagnostic diagnostic JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 186 5 presented present VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 186 6 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 186 7 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 186 8 models model NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 186 9 satisfied satisfy VBD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 186 10 all all PDT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 186 11 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 186 12 assumptions assumption NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 186 13 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 186 14 a a DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 186 15 seasonal seasonal JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 186 16 autoregressive autoregressive NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 186 17 integrated integrate VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 186 18 moving move VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 186 19 average average JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 186 20 model model NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 186 21 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 187 1 Furthermore furthermore RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 187 2 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 187 3 Model Model NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 187 4 2 2 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 187 5 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 187 6 relatively relatively RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 187 7 accurate accurate JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 187 8 compared compare VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 187 9 to to IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 187 10 Model Model NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 187 11 1 1 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 187 12 based base VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 187 13 on on IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 187 14 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 187 15 RMSE rmse NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 187 16 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 187 17 each each DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 187 18 model model NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 187 19 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 188 1 Hence hence RB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 188 2 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 188 3 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 188 4 ARIMA ARIMA NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 188 5 ( ( -LRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 188 6 1,1,1)×(1,0,1 1,1,1)×(1,0,1 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 188 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-162105-u0w56xrp 188 8 12 12 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 188 9 was be VBD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 188 10 used use VBN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 188 11 to to TO cord-162105-u0w56xrp 188 12 forecast forecast VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 188 13 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 188 14 monthly monthly JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 188 15 visitor visitor NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 188 16 arrivals arrival NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 188 17 in in IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 188 18 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 188 19 Philippines Philippines NNPS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 188 20 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 189 1 Philippine philippine JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 189 2 statistic statistic NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 189 3 authority authority NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 189 4 : : : cord-162105-u0w56xrp 190 1 Contribution contribution NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 190 2 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 190 3 tourism tourism NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 190 4 to to IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 190 5 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 190 6 philippine philippine JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 190 7 economy economy NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 190 8 is be VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 190 9 12.7 12.7 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 190 10 percent percent NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 190 11 Department Department NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 190 12 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 190 13 tourism tourism NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 190 14 - - HYPH cord-162105-u0w56xrp 190 15 philippines philippines NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 190 16 : : : cord-162105-u0w56xrp 191 1 Tourism tourism NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 191 2 statistics statistic VBZ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 191 3 Philippine Philippine NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 191 4 statistic statistic NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 191 5 authority authority NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 191 6 Encyclopedia Encyclopedia NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 191 7 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 191 8 Research Research NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 191 9 Design Design NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 191 10 , , , cord-162105-u0w56xrp 191 11 1 1 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 191 12 ed ed NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 191 13 Time Time NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 191 14 Series Series NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 191 15 Analysis Analysis NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 191 16 : : : cord-162105-u0w56xrp 192 1 Forecasting Forecasting NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 192 2 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 192 3 Control Control NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 192 4 Long Long NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 192 5 Short Short NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 192 6 - - HYPH cord-162105-u0w56xrp 192 7 Term Term NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 192 8 Memory memory NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 192 9 Networks Networks NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 192 10 with with IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 192 11 Python Python NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 192 12 : : : cord-162105-u0w56xrp 193 1 Develop develop VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 193 2 Sequence sequence NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 193 3 Prediction prediction NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 193 4 Models model NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 193 5 with with IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 193 6 Deep deep JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 193 7 Learning Learning NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 194 1 Automatic automatic JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 194 2 time time NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 194 3 series series NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 194 4 forecasting forecasting NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 194 5 : : : cord-162105-u0w56xrp 194 6 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 194 7 forecast forecast NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 194 8 package package NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 194 9 for for IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 194 10 R R NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 194 11 Box Box NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 194 12 - - HYPH cord-162105-u0w56xrp 194 13 Cox Cox NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 194 14 Transformation transformation NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 194 15 R r NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 194 16 : : : cord-162105-u0w56xrp 194 17 A a DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 194 18 Language Language NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 194 19 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 194 20 Environment Environment NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 194 21 for for IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 194 22 Statistical Statistical NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 194 23 Computing Computing NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 194 24 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 195 1 R R NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 195 2 Foundation Foundation NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 195 3 for for IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 195 4 Statistical Statistical NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 195 5 Computing Computing NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 195 6 tseries tserie NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 195 7 : : : cord-162105-u0w56xrp 196 1 Time Time NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 196 2 Series Series NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 196 3 Analysis Analysis NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 196 4 and and CC cord-162105-u0w56xrp 196 5 Computational Computational NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 196 6 Finance Finance NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 196 7 . . . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 197 1 R r NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 197 2 package package NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 197 3 version version NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 197 4 0 0 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 197 5 Diagnostic diagnostic JJ cord-162105-u0w56xrp 197 6 checking checking NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 197 7 in in IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 197 8 regression regression NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 197 9 relationships relationship NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 197 10 ggplot2 ggplot2 NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 197 11 : : : cord-162105-u0w56xrp 198 1 Elegant Elegant NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 198 2 Graphics Graphics NNPS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 198 3 for for IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 198 4 Data Data NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 198 5 Analysis Analysis NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 198 6 Package Package NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 198 7 ' ' '' cord-162105-u0w56xrp 198 8 tidyr tidyr NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 199 1 A a DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 199 2 grammar grammar NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 199 3 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 199 4 data datum NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 199 5 manipulation manipulation NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 199 6 What what WDT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 199 7 quarantine quarantine NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 199 8 measures measure NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 199 9 can can MD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 199 10 do do VB cord-162105-u0w56xrp 199 11 ? ? . cord-162105-u0w56xrp 200 1 modelling model VBG cord-162105-u0w56xrp 200 2 the the DT cord-162105-u0w56xrp 200 3 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-162105-u0w56xrp 200 4 of of IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 200 5 covid-19 covid-19 CD cord-162105-u0w56xrp 200 6 transmission transmission NN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 200 7 in in IN cord-162105-u0w56xrp 200 8 davao davao NNP cord-162105-u0w56xrp 200 9 region region NN