id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-306720-86ovj7xg	Kurita, Junko	Forecast of the COVID-19 outbreak, collapse of medical facilities, and lockdown effects in Tokyo, Japan	2020-04-06		.txt	text/plain	3457	240	61	title: Forecast of the COVID-19 outbreak, collapse of medical facilities, and lockdown effects in Tokyo, Japan Method: Data of Tokyo patients with symptoms during January 14 − March 28, 2020 were used to formulate a susceptible−infected−recovered (SIR) model using three age classes and to estimate the basic reproduction number (R0). If a lockdown were enacted from April 6, and if more than 60% of trips outside the home were restricted voluntarily, then a collapse of medical facilities could be avoided. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.02.20051490 doi: medRxiv preprint Experiences of Japanese people living in Wuhan until the outbreak provide information related to mild cases because complete laboratory surveillance was conducted for them. We used data of the COVID-19 community outbreak of patients in Japan who showed any symptom during January 14 -March 28, 2020 in Tokyo. We estimated a collapse of medical facilities in late April and about 0.5 million cases with mortality in Tokyo if a lockdown were not applied.	./cache/cord-306720-86ovj7xg.txt	./txt/cord-306720-86ovj7xg.txt