id	sid	tid	token	lemma	pos
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	1	1	key	key	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	1	2	:	:	:
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	2	1	cord-286305	cord-286305	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	2	2	-	-	HYPH
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	2	3	2bwlxlfo	2bwlxlfo	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	2	4	authors	author	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	2	5	:	:	:
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	2	6	Ciufolini	Ciufolini	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	2	7	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	2	8	Ignazio	Ignazio	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	2	9	;	;	:
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	2	10	Paolozzi	Paolozzi	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	2	11	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	2	12	Antonio	Antonio	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	2	13	title	title	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	2	14	:	:	:
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	2	15	Mathematical	mathematical	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	2	16	prediction	prediction	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	2	17	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	2	18	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	2	19	time	time	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	2	20	evolution	evolution	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	2	21	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	2	22	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	2	23	COVID-19	covid-19	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	2	24	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	2	25	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	2	26	Italy	Italy	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	2	27	by	by	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	2	28	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	2	29	Gauss	Gauss	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	2	30	error	error	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	2	31	function	function	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	2	32	and	and	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	2	33	Monte	Monte	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	2	34	Carlo	Carlo	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	2	35	simulations	simulation	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	2	36	date	date	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	2	37	:	:	:
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	2	38	2020	2020	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	2	39	-	-	HYPH
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	2	40	04	04	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	2	41	-	-	SYM
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	2	42	15	15	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	2	43	journal	journal	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	2	44	:	:	:
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	3	1	Eur	Eur	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	3	2	Phys	Phys	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	3	3	J	J	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	4	1	Plus	plus	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	4	2	DOI	doi	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	4	3	:	:	:
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	5	1	10.1140	10.1140	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	5	2	/	/	SYM
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	5	3	epjp	epjp	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	5	4	/	/	SYM
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	5	5	s13360	s13360	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	5	6	-	-	HYPH
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	5	7	020	020	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	5	8	-	-	HYPH
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	5	9	00383-y	00383-y	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	6	1	sha	sha	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	6	2	:	:	:
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	6	3	3db88b442b2c693d0783756c733c55bcec669df0	3db88b442b2c693d0783756c733c55bcec669df0	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	6	4	doc_id	doc_id	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	6	5	:	:	:
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	7	1	286305	286305	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	7	2	cord_uid	cord_uid	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	7	3	:	:	:
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	7	4	2bwlxlfo	2bwlxlfo	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	8	1	In	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	8	2	this	this	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	8	3	paper	paper	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	8	4	are	be	VBP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	8	5	presented	present	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	8	6	mathematical	mathematical	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	8	7	predictions	prediction	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	8	8	on	on	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	8	9	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	8	10	evolution	evolution	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	8	11	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	8	12	time	time	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	8	13	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	8	14	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	8	15	number	number	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	8	16	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	8	17	positive	positive	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	8	18	cases	case	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	8	19	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	8	20	Italy	Italy	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	8	21	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	8	22	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	8	23	COVID-19	COVID-19	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	8	24	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	8	25	based	base	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	8	26	on	on	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	8	27	official	official	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	8	28	data	datum	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	8	29	and	and	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	8	30	on	on	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	8	31	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	8	32	use	use	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	8	33	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	8	34	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	8	35	function	function	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	8	36	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	8	37	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	8	38	type	type	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	8	39	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	8	40	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	8	41	Gauss	Gauss	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	8	42	error	error	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	8	43	function	function	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	8	44	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	8	45	with	with	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	8	46	four	four	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	8	47	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	8	48	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	8	49	as	as	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	8	50	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	8	51	cumulative	cumulative	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	8	52	distribution	distribution	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	8	53	function	function	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	8	54	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	9	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	9	2	have	have	VBP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	9	3	analyzed	analyze	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	9	4	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	9	5	available	available	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	9	6	data	datum	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	9	7	for	for	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	9	8	China	China	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	9	9	and	and	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	9	10	Italy	Italy	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	9	11	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	10	1	The	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	10	2	evolution	evolution	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	10	3	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	10	4	time	time	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	10	5	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	10	6	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	10	7	number	number	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	10	8	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	10	9	cumulative	cumulative	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	10	10	diagnosed	diagnose	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	10	11	positive	positive	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	10	12	cases	case	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	10	13	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	10	14	COVID-19	covid-19	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	10	15	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	10	16	China	China	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	10	17	very	very	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	10	18	well	well	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	10	19	approximates	approximate	VBZ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	10	20	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	10	21	distribution	distribution	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	10	22	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	10	23	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	10	24	type	type	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	10	25	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	10	26	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	10	27	error	error	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	10	28	function	function	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	10	29	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	10	30	that	that	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	10	31	is	is	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	10	32	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	10	33	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	10	34	integral	integral	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	10	35	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	10	36	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	10	37	normal	normal	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	10	38	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	10	39	Gaussian	gaussian	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	10	40	distribution	distribution	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	10	41	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	11	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	11	2	have	have	VBP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	11	3	then	then	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	11	4	used	use	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	11	5	such	such	PDT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	11	6	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	11	7	function	function	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	11	8	to	to	TO
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	11	9	study	study	VB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	11	10	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	11	11	potential	potential	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	11	12	evolution	evolution	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	11	13	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	11	14	time	time	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	11	15	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	11	16	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	11	17	number	number	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	11	18	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	11	19	positive	positive	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	11	20	cases	case	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	11	21	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	11	22	Italy	Italy	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	11	23	by	by	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	11	24	performing	perform	VBG
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	11	25	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	11	26	number	number	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	11	27	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	11	28	fits	fit	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	11	29	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	11	30	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	11	31	official	official	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	11	32	data	datum	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	11	33	so	so	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	11	34	far	far	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	11	35	available	available	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	11	36	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	2	then	then	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	3	found	find	VBD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	4	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	5	statistical	statistical	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	6	prediction	prediction	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	7	for	for	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	8	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	9	day	day	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	10	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	11	which	which	WDT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	12	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	13	peak	peak	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	14	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	15	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	16	number	number	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	17	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	18	daily	daily	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	19	positive	positive	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	20	cases	case	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	21	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	22	Italy	Italy	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	23	occurs	occur	VBZ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	24	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	25	corresponding	correspond	VBG
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	26	to	to	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	27	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	28	flex	flex	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	29	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	30	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	31	fit	fit	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	32	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	33	that	that	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	34	is	is	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	35	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	36	to	to	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	37	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	38	change	change	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	39	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	40	sign	sign	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	41	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	42	its	-PRON-	PRP$
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	43	second	second	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	44	derivative	derivative	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	45	(	(	-LRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	46	i.e.	i.e.	FW
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	47	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	48	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	49	change	change	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	50	from	from	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	51	acceleration	acceleration	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	52	to	to	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	53	deceleration	deceleration	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	54	)	)	-RRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	55	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	56	as	as	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	57	well	well	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	58	as	as	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	59	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	60	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	61	day	day	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	62	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	63	which	which	WDT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	64	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	65	substantial	substantial	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	66	attenuation	attenuation	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	67	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	68	such	such	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	69	number	number	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	70	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	71	daily	daily	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	72	cases	case	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	73	is	be	VBZ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	74	reached	reach	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	12	75	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	13	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	13	2	have	have	VBP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	13	3	also	also	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	13	4	analyzed	analyze	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	13	5	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	13	6	predictions	prediction	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	13	7	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	13	8	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	13	9	cumulative	cumulative	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	13	10	number	number	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	13	11	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	13	12	fatalities	fatality	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	13	13	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	13	14	both	both	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	13	15	China	China	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	13	16	and	and	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	13	17	Italy	Italy	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	13	18	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	13	19	obtaining	obtain	VBG
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	13	20	consistent	consistent	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	13	21	results	result	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	13	22	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	14	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	14	2	have	have	VBP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	14	3	then	then	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	14	4	performed	perform	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	14	5	150	150	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	14	6	Monte	Monte	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	14	7	Carlo	Carlo	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	14	8	simulations	simulation	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	14	9	to	to	TO
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	14	10	have	have	VB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	14	11	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	14	12	more	more	RBR
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	14	13	robust	robust	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	14	14	prediction	prediction	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	14	15	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	14	16	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	14	17	day	day	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	14	18	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	14	19	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	14	20	above	above	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	14	21	-	-	HYPH
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	14	22	mentioned	mention	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	14	23	peak	peak	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	14	24	and	and	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	14	25	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	14	26	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	14	27	day	day	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	14	28	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	14	29	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	14	30	substantial	substantial	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	14	31	decrease	decrease	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	14	32	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	14	33	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	14	34	number	number	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	14	35	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	14	36	daily	daily	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	14	37	positive	positive	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	14	38	cases	case	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	14	39	and	and	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	14	40	fatalities	fatality	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	14	41	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	15	1	Although	although	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	15	2	official	official	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	15	3	data	datum	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	15	4	have	have	VBP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	15	5	been	be	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	15	6	used	use	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	15	7	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	15	8	those	those	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	15	9	predictions	prediction	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	15	10	are	be	VBP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	15	11	obtained	obtain	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	15	12	with	with	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	15	13	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	15	14	heuristic	heuristic	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	15	15	approach	approach	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	15	16	since	since	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	15	17	they	-PRON-	PRP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	15	18	are	be	VBP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	15	19	based	base	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	15	20	on	on	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	15	21	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	15	22	statistical	statistical	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	15	23	approach	approach	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	15	24	and	and	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	15	25	do	do	VBP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	15	26	not	not	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	15	27	take	take	VB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	15	28	into	into	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	15	29	account	account	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	15	30	either	either	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	15	31	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	15	32	number	number	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	15	33	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	15	34	relevant	relevant	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	15	35	issues	issue	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	15	36	(	(	-LRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	15	37	such	such	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	15	38	as	as	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	15	39	number	number	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	15	40	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	15	41	daily	daily	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	15	42	nasopharyngeal	nasopharyngeal	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	15	43	swabs	swab	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	15	44	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	15	45	medical	medical	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	15	46	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	15	47	social	social	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	15	48	distancing	distancing	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	15	49	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	15	50	virological	virological	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	15	51	and	and	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	15	52	epidemiological	epidemiological	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	15	53	)	)	-RRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	15	54	or	or	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	15	55	models	model	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	15	56	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	15	57	contamination	contamination	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	15	58	diffusion	diffusion	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	15	59	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	1	By	by	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	2	considering	consider	VBG
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	3	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	4	cumulative	cumulative	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	5	diagnosed	diagnose	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	6	positive	positive	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	7	cases	case	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	8	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	9	COVID-19	covid-19	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	10	infections	infection	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	11	and	and	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	12	fatalities	fatality	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	13	available	available	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	14	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	15	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	16	Web	web	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	17	site	site	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	18	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	19	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	20	Italian	italian	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	21	"	"	``
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	22	Ministero	Ministero	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	23	della	della	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	24	Salute	Salute	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	25	"	"	''
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	26	[	[	-LRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	27	1	1	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	28	]	]	-RRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	29	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	30	Worldometer	Worldometer	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	31	[	[	-LRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	32	2	2	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	33	]	]	-RRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	34	and	and	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	35	World	World	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	36	Health	Health	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	37	Organization	Organization	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	38	[	[	-LRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	39	3	3	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	40	]	]	-RRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	41	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	42	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	43	found	find	VBD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	44	that	that	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	45	they	-PRON-	PRP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	46	can	can	MD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	47	be	be	VB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	48	well	well	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	49	approximated	approximate	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	50	by	by	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	51	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	52	cumulative	cumulative	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	53	distribution	distribution	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	54	function	function	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	55	(	(	-LRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	56	CDF	CDF	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	57	)	)	-RRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	58	with	with	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	59	four	four	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	60	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	61	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	62	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	63	type	type	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	64	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	65	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	66	Gauss	Gauss	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	67	error	error	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	68	function	function	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	69	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	70	that	that	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	71	is	is	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	72	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	73	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	74	integral	integral	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	75	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	76	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	77	normal	normal	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	78	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	79	Gaussian	gaussian	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	80	distribution	distribution	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	81	(	(	-LRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	82	see	see	VB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	83	Sect	Sect	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	16	84	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	17	1	2	2	LS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	17	2	)	)	-RRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	17	3	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	18	1	By	by	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	18	2	positive	positive	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	18	3	cases	case	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	18	4	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	18	5	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	18	6	mean	mean	VBP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	18	7	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	18	8	positive	positive	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	18	9	cases	case	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	18	10	actually	actually	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	18	11	diagnosed	diagnose	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	18	12	plus	plus	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	18	13	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	18	14	for	for	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	18	15	future	future	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	18	16	days	day	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	18	17	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	18	18	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	18	19	positive	positive	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	18	20	cases	case	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	18	21	that	that	WDT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	18	22	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	18	23	expect	expect	VBP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	18	24	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	18	25	e	e	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	18	26	-	-	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	18	27	mail	mail	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	18	28	:	:	:
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	18	29	ignazio.ciufolini@gmail.com	ignazio.ciufolini@gmail.com	ADD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	18	30	(	(	-LRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	18	31	corresponding	correspond	VBG
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	18	32	author	author	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	18	33	)	)	-RRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	18	34	to	to	TO
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	18	35	be	be	VB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	18	36	diagnosed	diagnose	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	18	37	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	19	1	Indeed	indeed	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	19	2	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	19	3	it	-PRON-	PRP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	19	4	is	be	VBZ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	19	5	well	well	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	19	6	known	known	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	19	7	among	among	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	19	8	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	19	9	virologists	virologist	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	19	10	that	that	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	19	11	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	19	12	actual	actual	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	19	13	number	number	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	19	14	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	19	15	positive	positive	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	19	16	cases	case	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	19	17	is	be	VBZ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	19	18	much	much	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	19	19	higher	high	JJR
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	19	20	than	than	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	19	21	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	19	22	diagnosed	diagnosed	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	19	23	ones	one	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	19	24	[	[	-LRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	19	25	4	4	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	19	26	]	]	-RRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	19	27	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	20	1	However	however	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	20	2	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	20	3	it	-PRON-	PRP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	20	4	is	be	VBZ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	20	5	assumed	assume	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	20	6	that	that	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	20	7	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	20	8	diagnosed	diagnose	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	20	9	cases	case	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	20	10	are	be	VBP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	20	11	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	20	12	good	good	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	20	13	statistical	statistical	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	20	14	representation	representation	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	20	15	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	20	16	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	20	17	entire	entire	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	20	18	population	population	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	20	19	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	20	20	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	20	21	positive	positive	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	20	22	cases	case	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	20	23	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	21	1	In	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	21	2	Fig	Fig	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	21	3	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	22	1	1	1	LS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	22	2	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	22	3	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	22	4	report	report	VBP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	22	5	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	22	6	result	result	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	22	7	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	22	8	our	-PRON-	PRP$
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	22	9	fit	fit	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	22	10	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	22	11	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	22	12	cumulative	cumulative	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	22	13	diagnosed	diagnose	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	22	14	positive	positive	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	22	15	cases	case	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	22	16	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	22	17	China	China	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	22	18	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	23	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	23	2	have	have	VBP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	23	3	then	then	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	23	4	applied	apply	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	23	5	such	such	PDT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	23	6	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	23	7	CDF	cdf	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	23	8	to	to	TO
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	23	9	study	study	VB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	23	10	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	23	11	evolution	evolution	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	23	12	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	23	13	time	time	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	23	14	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	23	15	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	23	16	number	number	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	23	17	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	23	18	positive	positive	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	23	19	cases	case	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	23	20	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	23	21	Italy	Italy	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	23	22	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	23	23	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	23	24	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	23	25	attempt	attempt	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	23	26	to	to	TO
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	23	27	possibly	possibly	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	23	28	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	23	29	statistically	statistically	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	23	30	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	23	31	predict	predict	VB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	23	32	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	23	33	peak	peak	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	23	34	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	23	35	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	23	36	number	number	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	23	37	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	23	38	daily	daily	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	23	39	positive	positive	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	23	40	cases	case	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	23	41	and	and	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	23	42	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	23	43	possible	possible	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	23	44	date	date	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	23	45	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	23	46	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	23	47	substantial	substantial	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	23	48	decrease	decrease	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	23	49	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	23	50	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	23	51	number	number	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	23	52	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	23	53	daily	daily	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	23	54	positive	positive	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	23	55	cases	case	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	23	56	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	24	1	Furthermore	furthermore	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	24	2	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	24	3	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	24	4	have	have	VBP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	24	5	also	also	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	24	6	applied	apply	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	24	7	our	-PRON-	PRP$
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	24	8	method	method	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	24	9	to	to	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	24	10	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	24	11	CDF	cdf	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	24	12	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	24	13	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	24	14	number	number	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	24	15	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	24	16	fatalities	fatality	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	24	17	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	24	18	both	both	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	24	19	China	China	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	24	20	and	and	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	24	21	Italy	Italy	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	24	22	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	24	23	confirming	confirm	VBG
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	24	24	our	-PRON-	PRP$
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	24	25	predictions	prediction	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	24	26	obtained	obtain	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	24	27	with	with	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	24	28	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	24	29	cumulative	cumulative	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	24	30	positive	positive	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	24	31	cases	case	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	24	32	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	25	1	Finally	finally	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	25	2	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	25	3	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	25	4	Sect	Sect	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	25	5	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	26	1	4	4	LS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	26	2	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	26	3	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	26	4	have	have	VBP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	26	5	performed	perform	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	26	6	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	26	7	number	number	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	26	8	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	26	9	Monte	Monte	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	26	10	Carlo	Carlo	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	26	11	simulations	simulation	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	26	12	to	to	TO
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	26	13	get	get	VB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	26	14	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	26	15	more	more	RBR
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	26	16	robust	robust	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	26	17	prediction	prediction	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	26	18	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	26	19	both	both	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	26	20	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	26	21	date	date	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	26	22	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	26	23	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	26	24	peak	peak	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	26	25	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	26	26	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	26	27	number	number	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	26	28	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	26	29	positive	positive	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	26	30	cases	case	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	26	31	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	26	32	diagnosed	diagnose	VBD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	26	33	each	each	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	26	34	day	day	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	26	35	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	26	36	and	and	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	26	37	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	26	38	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	26	39	date	date	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	26	40	after	after	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	26	41	which	which	WDT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	26	42	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	26	43	number	number	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	26	44	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	26	45	new	new	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	26	46	positive	positive	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	26	47	cases	case	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	26	48	will	will	MD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	26	49	be	be	VB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	26	50	below	below	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	26	51	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	26	52	certain	certain	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	26	53	threshold	threshold	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	26	54	[	[	-LRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	26	55	5	5	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	26	56	]	]	-RRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	26	57	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	27	1	Based	base	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	27	2	on	on	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	27	3	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	27	4	number	number	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	27	5	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	27	6	diagnosed	diagnose	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	27	7	positive	positive	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	27	8	cases	case	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	27	9	and	and	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	27	10	fatalities	fatality	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	27	11	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	27	12	COVID-19	COVID-19	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	27	13	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	27	14	China	China	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	27	15	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	27	16	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	27	17	have	have	VBP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	27	18	fitted	fit	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	27	19	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	27	20	cumulative	cumulative	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	27	21	numbers	number	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	27	22	with	with	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	27	23	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	27	24	function	function	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	27	25	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	27	26	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	27	27	type	type	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	27	28	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	27	29	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	27	30	Gauss	Gauss	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	27	31	error	error	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	27	32	function	function	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	27	33	containing	contain	VBG
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	27	34	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	27	35	four	four	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	27	36	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	27	37	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	27	38	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	27	39	b	b	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	27	40	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	27	41	c	c	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	27	42	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	27	43	d	d	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	27	44	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	27	45	that	that	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	27	46	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	27	47	have	have	VBP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	27	48	fitted	fit	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	27	49	using	use	VBG
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	27	50	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	27	51	available	available	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	27	52	official	official	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	27	53	data	datum	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	27	54	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	28	1	A	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	28	2	similar	similar	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	28	3	distribution	distribution	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	28	4	is	be	VBZ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	28	5	also	also	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	28	6	observed	observe	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	28	7	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	28	8	other	other	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	28	9	studies	study	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	28	10	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	28	11	seasonal	seasonal	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	28	12	influenza	influenza	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	28	13	and	and	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	28	14	pandemic	pandemic	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	28	15	[	[	-LRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	28	16	6	6	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	28	17	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	28	18	7	7	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	28	19	]	]	-RRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	28	20	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	29	1	The	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	29	2	result	result	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	29	3	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	29	4	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	29	5	fit	fit	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	29	6	is	be	VBZ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	29	7	reported	report	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	29	8	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	29	9	Fig	Fig	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	29	10	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	30	1	1	1	LS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	30	2	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	30	3	which	which	WDT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	30	4	shows	show	VBZ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	30	5	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	30	6	good	good	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	30	7	level	level	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	30	8	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	30	9	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	30	10	fit	fit	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	30	11	using	use	VBG
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	30	12	function	function	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	30	13	(	(	-LRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	30	14	1	1	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	30	15	)	)	-RRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	30	16	with	with	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	30	17	those	those	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	30	18	four	four	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	30	19	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	30	20	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	31	1	In	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	31	2	Fig	Fig	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	31	3	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	32	1	2	2	LS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	32	2	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	32	3	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	32	4	report	report	VBP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	32	5	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	32	6	fit	fit	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	32	7	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	32	8	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	32	9	cumulative	cumulative	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	32	10	number	number	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	32	11	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	32	12	fatalities	fatality	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	32	13	due	due	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	32	14	to	to	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	32	15	COVID-19	covid-19	VB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	32	16	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	32	17	China	China	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	32	18	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	32	19	which	which	WDT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	32	20	also	also	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	32	21	shows	show	VBZ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	32	22	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	32	23	good	good	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	32	24	level	level	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	32	25	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	32	26	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	32	27	fit	fit	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	32	28	using	use	VBG
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	32	29	function	function	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	32	30	(	(	-LRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	32	31	1	1	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	32	32	)	)	-RRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	32	33	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	33	1	In	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	33	2	Sect	Sect	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	33	3	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	34	1	3	3	LS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	34	2	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	34	3	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	34	4	same	same	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	34	5	procedure	procedure	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	34	6	was	be	VBD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	34	7	applied	apply	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	34	8	to	to	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	34	9	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	34	10	Italian	italian	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	34	11	data	datum	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	34	12	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	35	1	In	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	35	2	this	this	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	35	3	section	section	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	35	4	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	35	5	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	35	6	report	report	VBP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	35	7	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	35	8	results	result	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	35	9	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	35	10	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	35	11	fit	fit	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	35	12	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	35	13	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	35	14	cumulative	cumulative	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	35	15	diagnosed	diagnose	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	35	16	positive	positive	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	35	17	cases	case	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	35	18	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	35	19	COVID-19	covid-19	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	35	20	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	35	21	Italy	Italy	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	35	22	using	use	VBG
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	35	23	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	35	24	function	function	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	35	25	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	35	26	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	35	27	type	type	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	35	28	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	35	29	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	35	30	Gauss	Gauss	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	35	31	error	error	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	35	32	function	function	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	35	33	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	35	34	given	give	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	35	35	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	35	36	Sect	Sect	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	35	37	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	36	1	2	2	LS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	36	2	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	37	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	37	2	obtained	obtain	VBD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	37	3	very	very	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	37	4	similar	similar	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	37	5	results	result	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	37	6	using	use	VBG
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	37	7	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	37	8	logistic	logistic	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	37	9	function	function	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	37	10	with	with	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	37	11	four	four	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	37	12	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	37	13	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	37	14	which	which	WDT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	37	15	are	be	VBP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	37	16	not	not	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	37	17	reported	report	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	37	18	here	here	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	37	19	for	for	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	37	20	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	37	21	sake	sake	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	37	22	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	37	23	brevity	brevity	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	37	24	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	38	1	Figure	figure	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	38	2	3	3	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	38	3	shows	show	VBZ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	38	4	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	38	5	fit	fit	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	38	6	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	38	7	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	38	8	data	datum	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	38	9	from	from	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	38	10	February	February	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	38	11	15	15	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	38	12	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	38	13	2020	2020	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	38	14	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	38	15	to	to	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	38	16	March	March	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	38	17	29	29	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	38	18	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	38	19	2020	2020	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	38	20	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	1	According	accord	VBG
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	2	to	to	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	3	this	this	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	4	fit	fit	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	5	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	6	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	7	flex	flex	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	8	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	9	i.e.	i.e.	FW
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	10	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	11	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	12	point	point	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	13	where	where	WRB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	14	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	15	second	second	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	16	derivative	derivative	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	17	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	18	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	19	fit	fit	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	20	is	be	VBZ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	21	becoming	become	VBG
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	22	negative	negative	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	23	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	24	that	that	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	25	is	is	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	26	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	27	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	28	difference	difference	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	29	between	between	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	30	two	two	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	31	successive	successive	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	32	daily	daily	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	33	cases	case	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	34	becomes	become	VBZ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	35	negative	negative	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	36	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	37	or	or	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	38	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	39	other	other	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	40	words	word	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	41	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	42	point	point	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	43	where	where	WRB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	44	there	there	EX
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	45	is	be	VBZ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	46	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	47	deceleration	deceleration	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	48	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	49	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	50	number	number	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	51	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	52	positive	positive	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	53	cases	case	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	54	is	be	VBZ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	55	reached	reach	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	56	at	at	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	57	March	March	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	58	25	25	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	59	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	60	2020	2020	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	61	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	62	plus	plus	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	63	or	or	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	64	minus	minus	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	65	2	2	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	66	days	day	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	67	(	(	-LRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	68	2-sigma	2-sigma	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	69	)	)	-RRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	70	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	71	this	this	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	72	uncertainty	uncertainty	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	73	is	be	VBZ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	74	derived	derive	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	75	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	76	Sect	Sect	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	39	77	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	40	1	4	4	LS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	40	2	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	41	1	According	accord	VBG
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	41	2	to	to	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	41	3	this	this	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	41	4	fit	fit	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	41	5	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	41	6	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	41	7	date	date	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	41	8	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	41	9	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	41	10	substantial	substantial	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	41	11	reduction	reduction	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	41	12	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	41	13	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	41	14	number	number	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	41	15	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	41	16	cumulative	cumulative	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	41	17	positive	positive	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	41	18	cases	case	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	41	19	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	41	20	Italy	Italy	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	41	21	(	(	-LRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	41	22	about	about	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	41	23	100	100	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	41	24	cases	case	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	41	25	)	)	-RRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	41	26	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	41	27	is	be	VBZ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	41	28	April	April	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	41	29	22	22	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	41	30	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	41	31	2020	2020	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	41	32	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	41	33	plus	plus	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	41	34	or	or	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	41	35	minus	minus	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	41	36	4.6	4.6	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	41	37	days	day	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	41	38	(	(	-LRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	41	39	2-sigma	2-sigma	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	41	40	)	)	-RRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	41	41	(	(	-LRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	41	42	see	see	VB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	41	43	Sect	Sect	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	41	44	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	41	45	4	4	LS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	41	46	)	)	-RRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	41	47	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	1	To	to	TO
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	2	check	check	VB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	3	whether	whether	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	4	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	5	obtain	obtain	VBP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	6	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	7	same	same	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	8	predictions	prediction	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	9	using	use	VBG
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	10	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	11	cumulative	cumulative	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	12	number	number	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	13	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	14	fatalities	fatality	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	15	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	16	COVID-19	covid-19	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	17	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	18	Italy	Italy	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	19	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	20	instead	instead	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	21	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	22	using	use	VBG
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	23	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	24	number	number	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	25	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	26	positive	positive	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	27	cases	case	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	28	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	29	COVID-19	covid-19	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	30	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	31	Italy	Italy	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	32	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	33	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	34	repeated	repeat	VBD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	35	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	36	previous	previous	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	37	analysis	analysis	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	38	using	use	VBG
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	39	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	40	cumulative	cumulative	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	41	fatalities	fatality	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	42	enumerated	enumerate	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	43	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	44	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	45	Web	web	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	46	sites	site	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	47	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	48	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	49	Italian	italian	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	50	"	"	``
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	51	Ministero	Ministero	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	52	della	della	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	53	Salute	salute	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	54	"	"	''
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	55	(	(	-LRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	56	Fig	fig	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	57	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	58	3	3	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	59	)	)	-RRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	60	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	61	thus	thus	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	62	confirming	confirm	VBG
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	63	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	64	consistency	consistency	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	65	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	66	our	-PRON-	PRP$
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	67	results	result	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	68	from	from	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	69	February	February	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	70	15	15	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	71	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	72	2020	2020	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	73	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	74	to	to	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	75	March	March	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	76	17	17	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	77	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	78	2020	2020	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	79	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	80	and	and	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	81	so	so	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	82	on	on	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	83	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	84	until	until	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	85	March	March	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	86	29	29	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	87	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	88	2020	2020	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	89	(	(	-LRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	90	included	include	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	91	)	)	-RRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	92	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	93	thus	thus	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	94	getting	get	VBG
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	95	14	14	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	96	evaluations	evaluation	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	97	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	98	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	99	date	date	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	100	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	101	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	102	flex	flex	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	42	103	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	43	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	43	2	then	then	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	43	3	evaluated	evaluate	VBD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	43	4	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	43	5	standard	standard	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	43	6	deviation	deviation	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	43	7	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	43	8	these	these	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	43	9	14	14	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	43	10	points	point	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	43	11	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	43	12	and	and	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	43	13	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	43	14	obtained	obtain	VBD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	43	15	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	43	16	1-sigma	1-sigma	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	43	17	standard	standard	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	43	18	deviation	deviation	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	43	19	for	for	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	43	20	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	43	21	flex	flex	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	43	22	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	43	23	3	3	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	43	24	days	day	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	43	25	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	44	1	The	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	44	2	2-sigma	2-sigma	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	44	3	(	(	-LRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	44	4	95.5	95.5	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	44	5	%	%	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	44	6	probability	probability	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	44	7	)	)	-RRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	44	8	and	and	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	45	1	3-sigma	3-sigma	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	45	2	(	(	-LRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	45	3	99.7	99.7	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	45	4	%	%	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	45	5	probability	probability	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	45	6	)	)	-RRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	45	7	uncertainties	uncertainty	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	45	8	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	45	9	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	45	10	day	day	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	45	11	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	45	12	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	45	13	flex	flex	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	45	14	are	be	VBP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	45	15	then	then	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	45	16	6	6	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	45	17	days	day	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	45	18	and	and	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	45	19	9	9	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	45	20	days	day	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	45	21	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	45	22	respectively	respectively	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	45	23	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	46	1	In	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	46	2	regard	regard	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	46	3	to	to	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	46	4	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	46	5	date	date	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	46	6	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	46	7	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	46	8	substantial	substantial	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	46	9	reduction	reduction	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	46	10	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	46	11	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	46	12	number	number	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	46	13	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	46	14	cumulative	cumulative	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	46	15	positive	positive	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	46	16	cases	case	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	46	17	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	46	18	Italy	Italy	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	46	19	(	(	-LRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	46	20	about	about	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	46	21	100	100	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	46	22	cases	case	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	46	23	)	)	-RRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	46	24	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	46	25	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	46	26	standard	standard	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	46	27	deviation	deviation	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	46	28	is	be	VBZ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	46	29	6	6	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	46	30	days	day	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	46	31	(	(	-LRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	46	32	68.2	68.2	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	46	33	%	%	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	46	34	probability	probability	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	46	35	)	)	-RRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	46	36	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	46	37	12	12	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	46	38	days	day	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	46	39	(	(	-LRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	46	40	95.5	95.5	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	46	41	%	%	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	46	42	probability	probability	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	46	43	)	)	-RRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	46	44	and	and	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	46	45	18	18	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	46	46	days	day	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	46	47	(	(	-LRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	46	48	99.7	99.7	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	46	49	%	%	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	46	50	probability	probability	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	46	51	)	)	-RRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	46	52	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	47	1	Both	both	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	47	2	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	47	3	date	date	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	47	4	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	47	5	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	47	6	flex	flex	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	47	7	and	and	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	47	8	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	47	9	date	date	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	47	10	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	47	11	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	47	12	substantial	substantial	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	47	13	reduction	reduction	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	47	14	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	47	15	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	47	16	number	number	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	47	17	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	47	18	cases	case	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	47	19	have	have	VBP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	47	20	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	47	21	quasi	quasi	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	47	22	oscillating	oscillating	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	47	23	behavior	behavior	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	47	24	whose	whose	WP$
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	47	25	amplitude	amplitude	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	47	26	is	be	VBZ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	47	27	decreasing	decrease	VBG
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	47	28	by	by	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	47	29	increasing	increase	VBG
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	47	30	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	47	31	final	final	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	47	32	date	date	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	47	33	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	47	34	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	47	35	analysis	analysis	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	47	36	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	47	37	i.e.	i.e.	FW
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	47	38	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	47	39	increasing	increase	VBG
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	47	40	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	47	41	number	number	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	47	42	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	47	43	points	point	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	47	44	used	use	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	47	45	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	47	46	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	47	47	fit	fit	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	47	48	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	48	1	Indeed	indeed	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	48	2	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	48	3	using	use	VBG
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	48	4	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	48	5	last	last	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	48	6	seven	seven	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	48	7	evaluations	evaluation	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	48	8	out	out	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	48	9	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	48	10	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	48	11	14	14	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	48	12	ones	one	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	48	13	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	48	14	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	48	15	previous	previous	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	48	16	standard	standard	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	48	17	deviations	deviation	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	48	18	reduce	reduce	VBP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	48	19	by	by	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	48	20	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	48	21	factor	factor	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	48	22	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	48	23	about	about	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	48	24	two	two	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	48	25	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	49	1	However	however	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	49	2	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	49	3	using	use	VBG
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	49	4	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	49	5	second	second	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	49	6	more	more	RBR
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	49	7	robust	robust	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	49	8	method	method	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	49	9	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	49	10	by	by	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	49	11	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	49	12	Monte	Monte	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	49	13	Carlo	Carlo	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	49	14	analysis	analysis	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	49	15	[	[	-LRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	49	16	8	8	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	49	17	]	]	-RRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	49	18	[	[	-LRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	49	19	9	9	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	49	20	]	]	-RRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	49	21	[	[	-LRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	49	22	10	10	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	49	23	]	]	-RRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	49	24	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	49	25	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	49	26	evaluated	evaluate	VBD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	49	27	narrower	narrow	JJR
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	49	28	uncertainties	uncertainty	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	49	29	for	for	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	49	30	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	49	31	day	day	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	49	32	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	49	33	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	49	34	flex	flex	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	49	35	and	and	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	49	36	for	for	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	49	37	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	49	38	day	day	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	49	39	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	49	40	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	49	41	substantial	substantial	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	49	42	reduction	reduction	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	49	43	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	49	44	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	49	45	number	number	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	49	46	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	49	47	diagnosed	diagnose	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	49	48	positive	positive	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	49	49	cases	case	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	49	50	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	49	51	as	as	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	49	52	described	describe	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	49	53	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	49	54	Sect	Sect	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	49	55	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	50	1	4	4	LS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	50	2	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	51	1	The	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	51	2	Monte	Monte	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	51	3	Carlo	Carlo	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	51	4	simulations	simulation	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	51	5	[	[	-LRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	51	6	8	8	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	51	7	]	]	-RRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	51	8	[	[	-LRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	51	9	9	9	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	51	10	]	]	-RRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	51	11	[	[	-LRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	51	12	10	10	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	51	13	]	]	-RRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	51	14	have	have	VBP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	51	15	been	be	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	51	16	designed	design	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	51	17	to	to	TO
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	51	18	possibly	possibly	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	51	19	take	take	VB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	51	20	into	into	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	51	21	account	account	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	51	22	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	51	23	measurement	measurement	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	51	24	error	error	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	51	25	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	51	26	each	each	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	51	27	daily	daily	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	51	28	number	number	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	51	29	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	51	30	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	51	31	cumulative	cumulative	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	51	32	positive	positive	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	51	33	cases	case	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	51	34	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	51	35	COVID-19	covid-19	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	51	36	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	51	37	Italy	Italy	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	51	38	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	1	This	this	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	2	error	error	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	3	should	should	MD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	4	describe	describe	VB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	5	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	6	uncertainty	uncertainty	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	7	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	8	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	9	process	process	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	10	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	11	measuring	measure	VBG
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	12	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	13	daily	daily	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	14	number	number	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	15	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	16	positive	positive	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	17	cases	case	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	18	due	due	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	19	to	to	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	20	fluctuations	fluctuation	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	21	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	22	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	23	measurement	measurement	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	24	procedures	procedure	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	25	(	(	-LRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	26	such	such	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	27	as	as	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	28	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	29	different	different	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	30	number	number	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	31	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	32	performed	perform	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	33	daily	daily	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	34	nasopharyngeal	nasopharyngeal	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	35	swabs	swab	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	36	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	37	one	one	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	38	day	day	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	39	with	with	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	40	respect	respect	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	41	to	to	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	42	another	another	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	43	day	day	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	44	)	)	-RRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	45	;	;	:
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	46	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	47	course	course	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	48	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	49	this	this	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	50	error	error	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	51	does	do	VBZ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	52	not	not	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	53	describe	describe	VB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	54	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	55	difference	difference	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	56	between	between	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	57	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	58	actual	actual	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	59	total	total	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	60	positive	positive	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	61	cases	case	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	62	and	and	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	63	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	64	diagnosed	diagnosed	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	65	ones	one	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	66	which	which	WDT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	67	can	can	MD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	68	be	be	VB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	69	very	very	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	70	large	large	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	71	[	[	-LRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	72	4	4	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	73	]	]	-RRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	52	74	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	53	1	However	however	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	53	2	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	53	3	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	53	4	diagnosed	diagnosed	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	53	5	cases	case	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	53	6	are	be	VBP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	53	7	hypothesized	hypothesize	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	53	8	to	to	TO
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	53	9	be	be	VB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	53	10	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	53	11	representative	representative	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	53	12	sample	sample	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	53	13	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	53	14	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	53	15	actual	actual	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	53	16	population	population	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	53	17	(	(	-LRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	53	18	i.e.	i.e.	FW
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	53	19	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	53	20	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	53	21	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	53	22	total	total	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	53	23	number	number	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	53	24	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	53	25	positive	positive	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	53	26	cases	case	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	53	27	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	53	28	which	which	WDT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	53	29	is	be	VBZ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	53	30	unknown	unknown	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	53	31	)	)	-RRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	53	32	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	54	1	To	to	TO
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	54	2	get	get	VB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	54	3	an	an	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	54	4	estimate	estimate	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	54	5	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	54	6	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	54	7	uncertainty	uncertainty	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	54	8	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	54	9	each	each	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	54	10	daily	daily	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	54	11	number	number	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	54	12	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	54	13	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	54	14	applied	apply	VBD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	54	15	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	54	16	following	follow	VBG
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	54	17	heuristic	heuristic	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	54	18	approach	approach	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	54	19	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	55	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	55	2	have	have	VBP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	55	3	assumed	assume	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	55	4	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	55	5	measurement	measurement	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	55	6	uncertainty	uncertainty	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	55	7	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	55	8	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	55	9	total	total	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	55	10	number	number	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	55	11	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	55	12	positive	positive	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	55	13	cases	case	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	55	14	equal	equal	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	55	15	to	to	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	55	16	10	10	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	55	17	%	%	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	55	18	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	55	19	each	each	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	55	20	daily	daily	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	55	21	number	number	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	55	22	(	(	-LRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	55	23	Gaussian	gaussian	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	55	24	distributed	distribute	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	55	25	)	)	-RRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	55	26	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	56	1	The	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	56	2	second	second	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	56	3	step	step	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	56	4	was	be	VBD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	56	5	to	to	TO
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	56	6	generate	generate	VB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	56	7	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	56	8	random	random	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	56	9	matrix	matrix	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	56	10	(	(	-LRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	56	11	m	m	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	56	12	×	×	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	56	13	n	n	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	56	14	)	)	-RRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	56	15	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	56	16	where	where	WRB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	56	17	n	n	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	56	18	(	(	-LRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	56	19	columns	column	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	56	20	)	)	-RRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	56	21	is	be	VBZ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	56	22	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	56	23	number	number	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	56	24	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	56	25	observed	observed	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	56	26	days	day	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	56	27	and	and	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	56	28	m	m	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	56	29	(	(	-LRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	56	30	rows	row	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	56	31	)	)	-RRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	56	32	is	be	VBZ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	56	33	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	56	34	number	number	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	56	35	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	56	36	random	random	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	56	37	outcomes	outcome	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	56	38	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	56	39	which	which	WDT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	56	40	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	56	41	have	have	VBP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	56	42	chosen	choose	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	56	43	to	to	TO
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	56	44	be	be	VB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	56	45	150	150	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	56	46	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	57	1	Each	each	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	57	2	number	number	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	57	3	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	57	4	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	57	5	matrix	matrix	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	57	6	is	be	VBZ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	57	7	part	part	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	57	8	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	57	9	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	57	10	Gaussian	gaussian	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	57	11	distribution	distribution	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	57	12	with	with	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	57	13	mean	mean	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	57	14	equal	equal	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	57	15	to	to	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	57	16	1	1	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	57	17	and	and	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	57	18	sigma	sigma	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	57	19	equal	equal	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	57	20	to	to	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	57	21	0.1	0.1	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	57	22	(	(	-LRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	57	23	i.e.	i.e.	FW
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	57	24	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	57	25	10	10	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	57	26	%	%	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	57	27	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	57	28	1	1	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	57	29	)	)	-RRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	57	30	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	57	31	both	both	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	57	32	row	row	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	57	33	-	-	HYPH
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	57	34	wise	wise	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	57	35	and	and	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	57	36	column	column	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	57	37	-	-	HYPH
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	57	38	wise	wise	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	57	39	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	58	1	In	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	58	2	such	such	PDT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	58	3	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	58	4	way	way	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	58	5	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	58	6	each	each	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	58	7	day	day	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	58	8	will	will	MD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	58	9	be	be	VB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	58	10	characterized	characterize	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	58	11	by	by	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	58	12	150	150	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	58	13	simulated	simulate	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	58	14	outcomes	outcome	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	58	15	that	that	WDT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	58	16	allow	allow	VBP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	58	17	to	to	TO
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	58	18	apply	apply	VB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	58	19	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	58	20	statistical	statistical	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	58	21	approach	approach	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	58	22	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	59	1	The	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	59	2	150	150	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	59	3	outcomes	outcome	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	59	4	represent	represent	VBP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	59	5	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	59	6	reasonably	reasonably	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	59	7	large	large	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	59	8	number	number	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	59	9	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	59	10	simulated	simulated	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	59	11	deviations	deviation	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	59	12	from	from	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	59	13	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	59	14	official	official	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	59	15	data	datum	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	59	16	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	60	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	60	2	then	then	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	60	3	multiplied	multiply	VBD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	60	4	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	60	5	nominal	nominal	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	60	6	value	value	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	60	7	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	60	8	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	60	9	diagnosed	diagnose	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	60	10	positive	positive	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	60	11	cases	case	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	60	12	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	60	13	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	60	14	jth	jth	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	60	15	day	day	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	60	16	for	for	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	60	17	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	60	18	150	150	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	60	19	numbers	number	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	60	20	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	60	21	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	60	22	jth	jth	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	60	23	column	column	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	60	24	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	60	25	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	60	26	random	random	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	60	27	matrix	matrix	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	60	28	mentioned	mention	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	60	29	above	above	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	60	30	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	61	1	In	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	61	2	such	such	PDT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	61	3	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	61	4	way	way	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	61	5	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	61	6	each	each	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	61	7	day	day	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	61	8	will	will	MD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	61	9	be	be	VB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	61	10	associated	associate	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	61	11	with	with	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	61	12	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	61	13	series	series	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	61	14	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	61	15	150	150	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	61	16	numbers	number	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	61	17	(	(	-LRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	61	18	Gaussian	gaussian	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	61	19	distributed	distribute	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	61	20	with	with	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	61	21	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	61	22	10	10	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	61	23	%	%	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	61	24	standard	standard	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	61	25	deviation	deviation	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	61	26	)	)	-RRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	61	27	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	61	28	which	which	WDT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	61	29	simulate	simulate	VBP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	61	30	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	61	31	statistical	statistical	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	61	32	nature	nature	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	61	33	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	61	34	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	61	35	single	single	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	61	36	datum	datum	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	61	37	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	62	1	The	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	62	2	index	index	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	62	3	j	j	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	62	4	will	will	MD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	62	5	run	run	VB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	62	6	from	from	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	62	7	February	February	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	62	8	15	15	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	62	9	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	62	10	2020	2020	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	62	11	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	62	12	to	to	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	62	13	March	March	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	62	14	26	26	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	62	15	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	62	16	2020	2020	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	62	17	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	63	1	Finally	finally	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	63	2	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	63	3	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	63	4	integrated	integrate	VBD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	63	5	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	63	6	daily	daily	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	63	7	data	datum	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	63	8	to	to	TO
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	63	9	obtain	obtain	VB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	63	10	150	150	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	63	11	series	series	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	63	12	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	63	13	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	63	14	cumulative	cumulative	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	63	15	diagnosed	diagnose	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	63	16	positive	positive	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	63	17	cases	case	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	63	18	that	that	WDT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	63	19	allowed	allow	VBD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	63	20	to	to	TO
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	63	21	perform	perform	VB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	63	22	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	63	23	statistical	statistical	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	63	24	analysis	analysis	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	63	25	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	64	1	In	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	64	2	summary	summary	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	64	3	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	64	4	starting	start	VBG
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	64	5	from	from	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	64	6	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	64	7	n	n	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	64	8	nominal	nominal	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	64	9	values	value	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	64	10	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	64	11	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	64	12	daily	daily	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	64	13	data	datum	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	64	14	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	64	15	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	64	16	generated	generate	VBD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	64	17	n	n	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	64	18	Gaussian	gaussian	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	64	19	distributions	distribution	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	64	20	with	with	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	64	21	150	150	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	64	22	outcomes	outcome	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	64	23	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	64	24	with	with	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	64	25	mean	mean	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	64	26	equal	equal	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	64	27	to	to	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	64	28	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	64	29	n	n	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	64	30	nominal	nominal	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	64	31	values	value	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	64	32	and	and	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	64	33	with	with	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	64	34	10	10	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	64	35	%	%	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	64	36	standard	standard	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	64	37	deviation	deviation	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	64	38	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	65	1	Then	then	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	65	2	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	65	3	for	for	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	65	4	each	each	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	65	5	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	65	6	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	65	7	150	150	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	65	8	simulations	simulation	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	65	9	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	65	10	these	these	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	65	11	n	n	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	65	12	values	value	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	65	13	(	(	-LRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	65	14	corresponding	correspond	VBG
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	65	15	to	to	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	65	16	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	65	17	cumulative	cumulative	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	65	18	positive	positive	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	65	19	cases	case	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	65	20	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	65	21	n	n	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	65	22	days	day	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	65	23	)	)	-RRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	65	24	were	be	VBD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	65	25	fitted	fit	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	65	26	with	with	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	65	27	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	65	28	four	four	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	65	29	-	-	HYPH
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	65	30	parameter	parameter	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	65	31	function	function	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	65	32	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	65	33	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	65	34	type	type	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	65	35	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	65	36	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	65	37	Gauss	Gauss	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	65	38	error	error	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	65	39	function	function	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	65	40	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	65	41	and	and	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	65	42	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	65	43	then	then	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	65	44	determined	determine	VBD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	65	45	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	65	46	date	date	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	65	47	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	65	48	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	65	49	flex	flex	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	65	50	with	with	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	65	51	such	such	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	65	52	fitted	fit	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	65	53	function	function	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	65	54	for	for	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	65	55	each	each	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	65	56	simulation	simulation	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	65	57	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	66	1	Using	use	VBG
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	66	2	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	66	3	fitted	fit	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	66	4	function	function	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	66	5	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	66	6	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	66	7	also	also	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	66	8	determined	determine	VBD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	66	9	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	66	10	date	date	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	66	11	at	at	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	66	12	which	which	WDT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	66	13	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	66	14	number	number	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	66	15	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	66	16	daily	daily	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	66	17	positive	positive	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	66	18	cases	case	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	66	19	will	will	MD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	66	20	be	be	VB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	66	21	at	at	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	66	22	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	66	23	certain	certain	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	66	24	threshold	threshold	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	66	25	that	that	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	66	26	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	66	27	for	for	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	66	28	example	example	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	66	29	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	66	30	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	66	31	have	have	VBP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	66	32	chosen	choose	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	66	33	to	to	TO
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	66	34	be	be	VB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	66	35	100	100	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	66	36	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	67	1	Finally	finally	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	67	2	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	67	3	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	67	4	calculated	calculate	VBD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	67	5	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	67	6	standard	standard	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	67	7	deviation	deviation	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	67	8	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	67	9	these	these	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	67	10	150	150	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	67	11	simulations	simulation	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	67	12	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	68	1	In	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	68	2	Fig	Fig	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	68	3	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	69	1	5	5	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	69	2	and	and	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	69	3	Fig	Fig	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	69	4	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	70	1	6	6	LS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	70	2	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	70	3	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	70	4	report	report	VBP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	70	5	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	70	6	values	value	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	70	7	(	(	-LRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	70	8	red	red	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	70	9	dots	dot	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	70	10	)	)	-RRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	70	11	and	and	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	70	12	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	70	13	mean	mean	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	70	14	(	(	-LRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	70	15	horizontal	horizontal	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	70	16	solid	solid	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	70	17	line	line	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	70	18	)	)	-RRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	70	19	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	70	20	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	70	21	Monte	Monte	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	70	22	Carlo	Carlo	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	70	23	simulations	simulation	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	70	24	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	70	25	respectively	respectively	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	70	26	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	70	27	for	for	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	70	28	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	70	29	date	date	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	70	30	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	70	31	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	70	32	flex	flex	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	70	33	and	and	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	70	34	for	for	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	70	35	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	70	36	date	date	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	70	37	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	70	38	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	70	39	substantial	substantial	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	70	40	reduction	reduction	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	70	41	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	70	42	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	70	43	number	number	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	70	44	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	70	45	daily	daily	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	70	46	positive	positive	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	70	47	cases	case	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	70	48	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	1	Using	use	VBG
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	2	n	n	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	3	=	=	SYM
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	4	41	41	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	5	days	day	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	6	(	(	-LRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	7	i.e.	i.e.	FW
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	8	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	9	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	10	number	number	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	11	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	12	daily	daily	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	13	diagnosed	diagnose	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	14	positive	positive	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	15	cases	case	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	16	up	up	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	17	to	to	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	18	March	March	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	19	26	26	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	20	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	21	2020	2020	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	22	)	)	-RRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	23	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	24	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	25	mean	mean	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	26	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	27	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	28	150	150	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	29	Monte	Monte	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	30	Carlo	Carlo	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	31	simulations	simulation	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	32	gives	give	VBZ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	33	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	34	expected	expect	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	35	dates	date	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	36	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	37	March	March	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	38	25	25	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	39	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	40	2020	2020	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	41	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	42	and	and	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	43	April	April	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	44	22	22	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	45	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	46	2020	2020	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	47	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	48	for	for	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	49	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	50	flex	flex	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	51	and	and	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	52	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	53	day	day	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	54	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	55	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	56	substantial	substantial	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	57	reduction	reduction	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	58	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	59	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	60	number	number	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	61	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	62	daily	daily	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	63	cases	case	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	64	(	(	-LRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	65	about	about	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	66	100	100	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	67	)	)	-RRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	68	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	69	respectively	respectively	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	71	70	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	72	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	72	2	then	then	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	72	3	obtained	obtain	VBD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	72	4	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	72	5	standard	standard	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	72	6	deviation	deviation	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	72	7	(	(	-LRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	72	8	1-sigma	1-sigma	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	72	9	)	)	-RRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	72	10	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	72	11	1	1	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	72	12	day	day	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	72	13	for	for	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	72	14	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	72	15	date	date	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	72	16	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	72	17	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	72	18	flex	flex	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	72	19	and	and	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	72	20	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	72	21	2.3	2.3	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	72	22	days	day	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	72	23	for	for	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	72	24	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	72	25	date	date	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	72	26	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	72	27	which	which	WDT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	72	28	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	72	29	substantial	substantial	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	72	30	reduction	reduction	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	72	31	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	72	32	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	72	33	number	number	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	72	34	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	72	35	daily	daily	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	72	36	cases	case	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	72	37	would	would	MD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	72	38	be	be	VB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	72	39	about	about	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	72	40	100	100	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	72	41	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	73	1	This	this	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	73	2	result	result	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	73	3	corresponds	correspond	VBZ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	73	4	to	to	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	73	5	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	73	6	probability	probability	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	73	7	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	73	8	68.2	68.2	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	73	9	%	%	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	73	10	that	that	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	73	11	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	73	12	date	date	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	73	13	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	73	14	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	73	15	flex	flex	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	73	16	will	will	MD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	73	17	be	be	VB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	73	18	at	at	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	73	19	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	73	20	certain	certain	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	73	21	date	date	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	73	22	plus	plus	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	73	23	or	or	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	73	24	minus	minus	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	73	25	1	1	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	73	26	day	day	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	73	27	and	and	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	73	28	that	that	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	73	29	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	73	30	date	date	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	73	31	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	73	32	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	73	33	substantial	substantial	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	73	34	reduction	reduction	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	73	35	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	73	36	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	73	37	number	number	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	73	38	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	73	39	cases	case	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	73	40	will	will	MD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	73	41	be	be	VB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	73	42	at	at	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	73	43	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	73	44	certain	certain	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	73	45	date	date	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	73	46	plus	plus	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	73	47	or	or	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	73	48	minus	minus	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	73	49	2.3	2.3	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	73	50	days	day	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	73	51	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	74	1	A	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	74	2	2-sigma	2-sigma	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	74	3	standard	standard	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	74	4	deviation	deviation	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	74	5	will	will	MD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	74	6	give	give	VB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	74	7	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	74	8	more	more	RBR
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	74	9	robust	robust	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	74	10	probability	probability	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	74	11	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	74	12	95.4	95.4	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	74	13	%	%	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	74	14	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	74	15	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	74	16	day	day	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	74	17	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	74	18	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	74	19	flex	flex	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	74	20	and	and	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	74	21	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	74	22	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	74	23	day	day	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	74	24	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	74	25	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	74	26	substantial	substantial	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	74	27	reduction	reduction	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	74	28	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	74	29	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	74	30	number	number	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	74	31	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	74	32	cases	case	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	74	33	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	75	1	The	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	75	2	2-sigma	2-sigma	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	75	3	values	value	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	75	4	correspond	correspond	VBP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	75	5	to	to	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	75	6	plus	plus	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	75	7	or	or	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	75	8	minus	minus	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	75	9	2	2	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	75	10	days	day	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	75	11	for	for	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	75	12	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	75	13	day	day	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	75	14	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	75	15	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	75	16	flex	flex	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	75	17	and	and	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	75	18	plus	plus	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	75	19	or	or	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	75	20	minus	minus	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	75	21	4.6	4.6	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	75	22	days	day	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	75	23	for	for	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	75	24	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	75	25	day	day	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	75	26	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	75	27	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	75	28	substantial	substantial	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	75	29	reduction	reduction	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	75	30	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	75	31	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	75	32	number	number	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	75	33	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	75	34	cases	case	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	75	35	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	76	1	A	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	76	2	similar	similar	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	76	3	uncertainty	uncertainty	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	76	4	was	be	VBD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	76	5	obtained	obtain	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	76	6	for	for	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	76	7	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	76	8	day	day	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	76	9	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	76	10	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	76	11	flex	flex	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	76	12	and	and	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	76	13	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	76	14	day	day	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	76	15	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	76	16	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	76	17	substantial	substantial	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	76	18	reduction	reduction	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	76	19	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	76	20	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	76	21	number	number	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	76	22	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	76	23	fatalities	fatality	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	76	24	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	77	1	In	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	77	2	this	this	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	77	3	paper	paper	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	77	4	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	77	5	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	77	6	considered	consider	VBD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	77	7	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	77	8	first	first	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	77	9	44	44	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	77	10	days	day	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	77	11	for	for	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	77	12	fitting	fit	VBG
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	77	13	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	77	14	cumulative	cumulative	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	77	15	diagnosed	diagnose	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	77	16	positive	positive	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	77	17	cases	case	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	77	18	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	77	19	COVID-19	covid-19	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	77	20	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	77	21	Italy	Italy	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	77	22	(	(	-LRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	77	23	i.e.	i.e.	FW
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	77	24	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	77	25	from	from	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	77	26	February	February	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	77	27	15	15	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	77	28	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	77	29	2020	2020	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	77	30	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	77	31	to	to	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	77	32	March	March	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	77	33	29	29	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	77	34	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	77	35	2020	2020	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	77	36	)	)	-RRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	77	37	and	and	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	77	38	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	77	39	first	first	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	77	40	41	41	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	77	41	days	day	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	77	42	for	for	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	77	43	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	77	44	Monte	Monte	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	77	45	Carlo	Carlo	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	77	46	simulations	simulation	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	77	47	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	78	1	The	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	78	2	function	function	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	78	3	used	use	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	78	4	for	for	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	78	5	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	78	6	fitting	fitting	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	78	7	is	be	VBZ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	78	8	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	78	9	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	78	10	type	type	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	78	11	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	78	12	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	78	13	Gauss	Gauss	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	78	14	error	error	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	78	15	function	function	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	78	16	with	with	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	78	17	four	four	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	78	18	parameters	parameter	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	78	19	(	(	-LRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	78	20	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	78	21	distribution	distribution	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	78	22	function	function	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	78	23	which	which	WDT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	78	24	well	well	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	78	25	fits	fit	VBZ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	78	26	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	78	27	corresponding	corresponding	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	78	28	cumulative	cumulative	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	78	29	diagnosed	diagnose	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	78	30	positive	positive	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	78	31	cases	case	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	78	32	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	78	33	China	China	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	78	34	)	)	-RRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	78	35	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	79	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	79	2	obtained	obtain	VBD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	79	3	that	that	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	79	4	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	79	5	day	day	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	79	6	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	79	7	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	79	8	flex	flex	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	79	9	(	(	-LRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	79	10	i.e.	i.e.	FW
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	79	11	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	79	12	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	79	13	day	day	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	79	14	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	79	15	deceleration	deceleration	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	79	16	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	79	17	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	79	18	number	number	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	79	19	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	79	20	daily	daily	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	79	21	positive	positive	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	79	22	cases	case	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	79	23	)	)	-RRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	79	24	is	be	VBZ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	79	25	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	79	26	Italy	Italy	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	79	27	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	79	28	with	with	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	79	29	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	79	30	95.4	95.4	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	79	31	%	%	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	79	32	probability	probability	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	79	33	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	79	34	between	between	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	79	35	March	March	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	79	36	23	23	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	79	37	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	79	38	2020	2020	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	79	39	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	79	40	and	and	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	79	41	March	March	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	79	42	27	27	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	79	43	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	79	44	2020	2020	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	79	45	;	;	:
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	79	46	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	79	47	2-sigma	2-sigma	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	79	48	uncertainty	uncertainty	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	79	49	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	79	50	+	+	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	79	51	/−	/−	SYM
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	79	52	2	2	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	79	53	days	day	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	79	54	was	be	VBD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	79	55	obtained	obtain	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	79	56	with	with	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	79	57	Monte	Monte	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	79	58	Carlo	Carlo	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	79	59	simulations	simulation	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	79	60	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	1	In	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	2	regard	regard	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	3	to	to	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	4	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	5	day	day	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	6	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	7	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	8	substantial	substantial	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	9	reduction	reduction	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	10	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	11	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	12	number	number	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	13	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	14	daily	daily	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	15	positive	positive	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	16	cases	case	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	17	(	(	-LRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	18	which	which	WDT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	19	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	20	for	for	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	21	example	example	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	22	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	23	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	24	took	take	VBD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	25	to	to	TO
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	26	be	be	VB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	27	100	100	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	28	)	)	-RRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	29	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	30	this	this	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	31	day	day	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	32	will	will	MD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	33	be	be	VB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	34	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	35	Italy	Italy	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	36	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	37	with	with	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	38	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	39	95.4	95.4	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	40	%	%	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	41	probability	probability	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	42	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	43	between	between	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	44	April	April	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	45	17	17	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	46	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	47	2020	2020	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	48	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	49	and	and	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	50	April	April	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	51	27	27	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	52	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	53	2020	2020	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	54	;	;	:
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	55	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	56	2-sigma	2-sigma	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	57	uncertainty	uncertainty	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	58	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	59	+	+	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	60	/−	/−	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	61	4.6	4.6	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	62	days	day	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	63	was	be	VBD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	64	also	also	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	65	obtained	obtain	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	66	with	with	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	67	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	68	Monte	Monte	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	69	Carlo	Carlo	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	70	simulations	simulation	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	80	71	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	81	1	In	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	81	2	regard	regard	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	81	3	to	to	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	81	4	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	81	5	day	day	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	81	6	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	81	7	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	81	8	flex	flex	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	81	9	and	and	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	81	10	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	81	11	day	day	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	81	12	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	81	13	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	81	14	substantial	substantial	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	81	15	reduction	reduction	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	81	16	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	81	17	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	81	18	number	number	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	81	19	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	81	20	fatalities	fatality	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	81	21	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	81	22	we	-PRON-	PRP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	81	23	obtained	obtain	VBD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	81	24	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	81	25	four	four	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	81	26	-	-	HYPH
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	81	27	day	day	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	81	28	forward	forward	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	81	29	shift	shift	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	81	30	with	with	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	81	31	respect	respect	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	81	32	to	to	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	81	33	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	81	34	corresponding	corresponding	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	81	35	dates	date	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	81	36	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	81	37	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	81	38	positive	positive	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	81	39	cases	case	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	81	40	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	82	1	The	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	82	2	predictions	prediction	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	82	3	discussed	discuss	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	82	4	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	82	5	this	this	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	82	6	paper	paper	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	82	7	are	be	VBP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	82	8	statistical	statistical	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	82	9	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	82	10	nature	nature	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	82	11	and	and	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	82	12	do	do	VBP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	82	13	not	not	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	82	14	explicitly	explicitly	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	82	15	take	take	VB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	82	16	into	into	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	82	17	account	account	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	82	18	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	82	19	relevant	relevant	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	82	20	factors	factor	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	82	21	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	82	22	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	82	23	daily	daily	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	82	24	number	number	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	82	25	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	82	26	nasopharyngeal	nasopharyngeal	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	82	27	swabs	swab	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	82	28	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	82	29	social	social	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	82	30	distancing	distancing	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	82	31	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	82	32	and	and	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	82	33	epidemiological	epidemiological	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	82	34	and	and	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	82	35	virology	virology	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	82	36	studies	study	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	82	37	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	82	38	which	which	WDT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	82	39	are	be	VBP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	82	40	outside	outside	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	82	41	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	82	42	analysis	analysis	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	82	43	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	82	44	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	82	45	present	present	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	82	46	paper	paper	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	82	47	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	83	1	It	-PRON-	PRP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	83	2	is	be	VBZ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	83	3	important	important	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	83	4	to	to	TO
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	83	5	stress	stress	VB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	83	6	that	that	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	83	7	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	83	8	mathematical	mathematical	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	83	9	predictions	prediction	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	83	10	reported	report	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	83	11	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	83	12	this	this	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	83	13	paper	paper	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	83	14	provide	provide	VBP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	83	15	an	an	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	83	16	indication	indication	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	83	17	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	83	18	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	83	19	approximate	approximate	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	83	20	period	period	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	83	21	when	when	WRB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	83	22	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	83	23	substantial	substantial	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	83	24	reduction	reduction	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	83	25	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	83	26	positive	positive	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	83	27	cases	case	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	83	28	and	and	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	83	29	fatalities	fatality	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	83	30	is	be	VBZ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	83	31	expected	expect	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	83	32	and	and	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	83	33	not	not	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	83	34	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	83	35	end	end	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	83	36	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	83	37	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	83	38	extremely	extremely	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	83	39	important	important	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	83	40	mitigation	mitigation	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	83	41	measures	measure	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	83	42	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	1	Substantial	substantial	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	2	undocumented	undocumented	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	3	infection	infection	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	4	facilitates	facilitate	VBZ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	5	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	6	rapid	rapid	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	7	dissemination	dissemination	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	8	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	9	novel	novel	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	10	coronavirus	coronavirus	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	11	(	(	-LRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	12	SARS	SARS	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	13	-	-	HYPH
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	14	CoV2	CoV2	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	15	)	)	-RRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	16	Prediction	prediction	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	17	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	18	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	19	time	time	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	20	evolution	evolution	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	21	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	22	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	23	Covid-19	Covid-19	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	24	Pandemic	Pandemic	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	25	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	26	Italy	Italy	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	27	by	by	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	28	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	29	Gauss	Gauss	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	30	Error	error	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	31	Function	Function	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	32	and	and	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	33	Monte	Monte	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	34	Carlo	Carlo	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	35	simulations	simulation	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	36	Incubation	Incubation	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	37	periods	period	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	38	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	39	acute	acute	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	40	respiratory	respiratory	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	41	viral	viral	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	42	infections	infection	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	43	:	:	:
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	44	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	45	systematic	systematic	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	46	review	review	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	47	Forecasting	Forecasting	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	48	COVID-19	covid-19	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	49	impact	impact	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	50	on	on	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	51	hospital	hospital	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	52	bed	bed	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	53	-	-	HYPH
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	54	days	day	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	55	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	56	ICU	ICU	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	57	-	-	HYPH
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	58	days	day	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	59	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	60	ventilator	ventilator	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	61	-	-	HYPH
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	62	days	day	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	63	and	and	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	64	deaths	death	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	65	by	by	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	66	US	US	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	67	state	state	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	68	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	69	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	70	next	next	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	71	4	4	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	72	months	month	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	73	Data	Data	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	74	Reduction	Reduction	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	75	and	and	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	76	Error	Error	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	77	Analysis	Analysis	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	78	for	for	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	79	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	80	Physical	Physical	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	81	Sciences	Sciences	NNPS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	82	Monte	Monte	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	83	Carlo	Carlo	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	84	simulations	simulation	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	85	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	86	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	87	LARES	LARES	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	88	space	space	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	89	experiment	experiment	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	90	to	to	TO
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	91	test	test	VB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	92	General	General	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	93	Relativity	Relativity	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	94	and	and	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	95	fundamental	fundamental	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	84	96	physics	physics	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	85	1	Acknowledgements	acknowledgement	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	86	1	We	-PRON-	PRP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	86	2	gratefully	gratefully	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	86	3	thank	thank	VBP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	86	4	Richard	Richard	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	86	5	Matzner	Matzner	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	86	6	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	86	7	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	86	8	University	University	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	86	9	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	86	10	Texas	Texas	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	86	11	at	at	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	86	12	Austin	Austin	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	86	13	for	for	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	86	14	helpful	helpful	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	86	15	suggestions	suggestion	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	86	16	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	86	17	Alessandro	Alessandro	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	86	18	Paolozzi	Paolozzi	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	86	19	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	86	20	and	and	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	86	21	Claudio	Claudio	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	86	22	Paris	Paris	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	86	23	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	86	24	Centro	Centro	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	86	25	Fermi	Fermi	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	86	26	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	87	1	Open	open	VB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	87	2	Access	Access	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	88	1	This	this	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	88	2	article	article	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	88	3	is	be	VBZ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	88	4	licensed	license	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	88	5	under	under	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	88	6	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	88	7	Creative	Creative	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	88	8	Commons	Commons	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	88	9	Attribution	Attribution	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	88	10	4.0	4.0	CD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	88	11	International	International	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	88	12	License	License	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	88	13	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	88	14	which	which	WDT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	88	15	permits	permit	VBZ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	88	16	use	use	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	88	17	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	88	18	sharing	sharing	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	88	19	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	88	20	adaptation	adaptation	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	88	21	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	88	22	distribution	distribution	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	88	23	and	and	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	88	24	reproduction	reproduction	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	88	25	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	88	26	any	any	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	88	27	medium	medium	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	88	28	or	or	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	88	29	format	format	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	88	30	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	88	31	as	as	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	88	32	long	long	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	88	33	as	as	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	88	34	you	-PRON-	PRP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	88	35	give	give	VBP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	88	36	appropriate	appropriate	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	88	37	credit	credit	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	88	38	to	to	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	88	39	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	88	40	original	original	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	88	41	author(s	author(s	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	88	42	)	)	-RRB-
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	88	43	and	and	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	88	44	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	88	45	source	source	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	88	46	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	88	47	provide	provide	VB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	88	48	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	88	49	link	link	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	88	50	to	to	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	88	51	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	88	52	Creative	Creative	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	88	53	Commons	Commons	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	88	54	licence	licence	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	88	55	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	88	56	and	and	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	88	57	indicate	indicate	VBP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	88	58	if	if	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	88	59	changes	change	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	88	60	were	be	VBD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	88	61	made	make	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	88	62	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	89	1	The	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	89	2	images	image	NNS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	89	3	or	or	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	89	4	other	other	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	89	5	third	third	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	89	6	party	party	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	89	7	material	material	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	89	8	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	89	9	this	this	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	89	10	article	article	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	89	11	are	be	VBP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	89	12	included	include	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	89	13	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	89	14	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	89	15	article	article	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	89	16	's	's	POS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	89	17	Creative	Creative	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	89	18	Commons	Commons	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	89	19	licence	licence	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	89	20	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	89	21	unless	unless	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	89	22	indicated	indicate	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	89	23	otherwise	otherwise	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	89	24	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	89	25	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	89	26	credit	credit	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	89	27	line	line	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	89	28	to	to	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	89	29	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	89	30	material	material	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	89	31	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	90	1	If	if	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	90	2	material	material	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	90	3	is	be	VBZ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	90	4	not	not	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	90	5	included	include	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	90	6	in	in	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	90	7	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	90	8	article	article	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	90	9	's	's	POS
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	90	10	Creative	Creative	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	90	11	Commons	Commons	NNP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	90	12	licence	licence	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	90	13	and	and	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	90	14	your	-PRON-	PRP$
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	90	15	intended	intend	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	90	16	use	use	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	90	17	is	be	VBZ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	90	18	not	not	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	90	19	permitted	permit	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	90	20	by	by	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	90	21	statutory	statutory	JJ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	90	22	regulation	regulation	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	90	23	or	or	CC
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	90	24	exceeds	exceed	VBZ
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	90	25	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	90	26	permitted	permit	VBN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	90	27	use	use	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	90	28	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	90	29	you	-PRON-	PRP
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	90	30	will	will	MD
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	90	31	need	need	VB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	90	32	to	to	TO
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	90	33	obtain	obtain	VB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	90	34	permission	permission	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	90	35	directly	directly	RB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	90	36	from	from	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	90	37	the	the	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	90	38	copyright	copyright	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	90	39	holder	holder	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	90	40	.	.	.
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	91	1	To	to	TO
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	91	2	view	view	VB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	91	3	a	a	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	91	4	copy	copy	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	91	5	of	of	IN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	91	6	this	this	DT
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	91	7	licence	licence	NN
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	91	8	,	,	,
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	91	9	visit	visit	VB
cord-286305-2bwlxlfo	91	10	http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.	http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.	NNP