id sid tid token lemma pos cord-256843-05m50voc 1 1 key key JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 1 2 : : : cord-256843-05m50voc 1 3 cord-256843 cord-256843 NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 1 4 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 1 5 05m50voc 05m50voc CD cord-256843-05m50voc 1 6 authors author NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 1 7 : : : cord-256843-05m50voc 1 8 Rovetta Rovetta NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 1 9 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 1 10 Alessandro Alessandro NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 1 11 ; ; : cord-256843-05m50voc 1 12 Bhagavathula Bhagavathula NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 1 13 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 1 14 Akshaya Akshaya NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 1 15 Srikanth Srikanth NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 2 1 title title NN cord-256843-05m50voc 2 2 : : : cord-256843-05m50voc 2 3 Modelling model VBG cord-256843-05m50voc 2 4 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 2 5 epidemiological epidemiological JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 2 6 trend trend NN cord-256843-05m50voc 2 7 and and CC cord-256843-05m50voc 2 8 behavior behavior NN cord-256843-05m50voc 2 9 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 2 10 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 2 11 in in IN cord-256843-05m50voc 2 12 Italy Italy NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 2 13 date date NN cord-256843-05m50voc 3 1 : : : cord-256843-05m50voc 3 2 2020 2020 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 3 3 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 3 4 03 03 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 3 5 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 3 6 23 23 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 3 7 journal journal NN cord-256843-05m50voc 3 8 : : : cord-256843-05m50voc 4 1 nan nan NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 4 2 DOI DOI NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 4 3 : : : cord-256843-05m50voc 5 1 10.1101/2020.03.19.20038968 10.1101/2020.03.19.20038968 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 6 1 sha sha NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 6 2 : : : cord-256843-05m50voc 7 1 379d7eb6a7394d8b20aacdafc2167fbe881b7c2a 379d7eb6a7394d8b20aacdafc2167fbe881b7c2a CD cord-256843-05m50voc 7 2 doc_id doc_id CD cord-256843-05m50voc 7 3 : : : cord-256843-05m50voc 8 1 256843 256843 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 8 2 cord_uid cord_uid NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 8 3 : : : cord-256843-05m50voc 8 4 05m50voc 05m50voc NFP cord-256843-05m50voc 9 1 As as IN cord-256843-05m50voc 9 2 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 9 3 March March NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 9 4 16 16 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 9 5 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 9 6 2020 2020 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 9 7 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 9 8 over over IN cord-256843-05m50voc 9 9 185,000 185,000 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 9 10 across across IN cord-256843-05m50voc 9 11 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 9 12 world world NN cord-256843-05m50voc 9 13 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 9 14 Italy Italy NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 9 15 became become VBD cord-256843-05m50voc 9 16 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 9 17 red red JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 9 18 hotspot hotspot NN cord-256843-05m50voc 9 19 for for IN cord-256843-05m50voc 9 20 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 9 21 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 9 22 pandemic pandemic NN cord-256843-05m50voc 9 23 after after IN cord-256843-05m50voc 9 24 China China NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 9 25 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 10 1 With with IN cord-256843-05m50voc 10 2 over over IN cord-256843-05m50voc 10 3 35,000 35,000 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 10 4 cases case NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 10 5 and and CC cord-256843-05m50voc 10 6 2900 2900 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 10 7 deaths death NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 10 8 reported report VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 10 9 in in IN cord-256843-05m50voc 10 10 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 10 11 month month NN cord-256843-05m50voc 10 12 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 10 13 March March NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 10 14 in in IN cord-256843-05m50voc 10 15 Italy Italy NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 10 16 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 10 17 it -PRON- PRP cord-256843-05m50voc 10 18 is be VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 10 19 necessary necessary JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 10 20 to to TO cord-256843-05m50voc 10 21 stimulate stimulate VB cord-256843-05m50voc 10 22 epidemic epidemic NN cord-256843-05m50voc 10 23 trend trend NN cord-256843-05m50voc 10 24 to to TO cord-256843-05m50voc 10 25 understand understand VB cord-256843-05m50voc 10 26 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 10 27 behavior behavior NN cord-256843-05m50voc 10 28 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 10 29 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 10 30 in in IN cord-256843-05m50voc 10 31 Italy Italy NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 10 32 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 11 1 By by IN cord-256843-05m50voc 11 2 S.E.I.R. S.E.I.R. NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 11 3 simulation simulation NN cord-256843-05m50voc 11 4 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 11 5 we -PRON- PRP cord-256843-05m50voc 11 6 estimated estimate VBD cord-256843-05m50voc 11 7 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 11 8 most most RBS cord-256843-05m50voc 11 9 representative representative JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 11 10 epidemic epidemic NN cord-256843-05m50voc 11 11 parameters parameter NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 11 12 occurred occur VBD cord-256843-05m50voc 11 13 from from IN cord-256843-05m50voc 11 14 March March NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 11 15 1 1 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 11 16 to to IN cord-256843-05m50voc 11 17 14 14 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 11 18 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 11 19 2020 2020 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 11 20 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 11 21 thus thus RB cord-256843-05m50voc 11 22 being be VBG cord-256843-05m50voc 11 23 able able JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 11 24 to to TO cord-256843-05m50voc 11 25 evaluate evaluate VB cord-256843-05m50voc 11 26 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 11 27 consistency consistency NN cord-256843-05m50voc 11 28 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 11 29 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 11 30 containment containment NN cord-256843-05m50voc 11 31 rules rule NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 11 32 and and CC cord-256843-05m50voc 11 33 identify identify VB cord-256843-05m50voc 11 34 possible possible JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 11 35 Sars Sars NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 11 36 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 11 37 Cov-2 Cov-2 NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 11 38 local local JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 11 39 mutations mutation NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 11 40 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 12 1 Our -PRON- PRP$ cord-256843-05m50voc 12 2 estimations estimation NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 12 3 are be VBP cord-256843-05m50voc 12 4 based base VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 12 5 on on IN cord-256843-05m50voc 12 6 some some DT cord-256843-05m50voc 12 7 assumptions assumption NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 12 8 and and CC cord-256843-05m50voc 12 9 limitations limitation NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 12 10 exited exit VBD cord-256843-05m50voc 12 11 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 13 1 The the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 13 2 current current JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 13 3 surge surge NN cord-256843-05m50voc 13 4 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 13 5 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 13 6 pandemic pandemic NN cord-256843-05m50voc 13 7 is be VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 13 8 devastating devastating JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 13 9 globally globally RB cord-256843-05m50voc 13 10 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 13 11 with with IN cord-256843-05m50voc 13 12 over over IN cord-256843-05m50voc 13 13 200,000 200,000 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 13 14 cases case NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 13 15 and and CC cord-256843-05m50voc 13 16 more more JJR cord-256843-05m50voc 13 17 than than IN cord-256843-05m50voc 13 18 8600 8600 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 13 19 deaths death NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 13 20 reported report VBD cord-256843-05m50voc 13 21 [ [ -LRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 13 22 1 1 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 13 23 ] ] -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 13 24 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 14 1 In in IN cord-256843-05m50voc 14 2 Europe Europe NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 14 3 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 14 4 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 14 5 cases case NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 14 6 are be VBP cord-256843-05m50voc 14 7 most most RBS cord-256843-05m50voc 14 8 dramatically dramatically RB cord-256843-05m50voc 14 9 started start VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 14 10 to to TO cord-256843-05m50voc 14 11 increase increase VB cord-256843-05m50voc 14 12 from from IN cord-256843-05m50voc 14 13 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 14 14 first first JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 14 15 week week NN cord-256843-05m50voc 14 16 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 14 17 March March NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 14 18 2020 2020 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 14 19 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 15 1 Of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 15 2 these these DT cord-256843-05m50voc 15 3 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 15 4 Italy Italy NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 15 5 is be VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 15 6 grappling grapple VBG cord-256843-05m50voc 15 7 with with IN cord-256843-05m50voc 15 8 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 15 9 worst bad JJS cord-256843-05m50voc 15 10 outbreak outbreak NN cord-256843-05m50voc 15 11 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 15 12 with with IN cord-256843-05m50voc 15 13 over over IN cord-256843-05m50voc 15 14 35,713 35,713 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 15 15 confirmed confirm VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 15 16 cases case NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 15 17 and and CC cord-256843-05m50voc 15 18 around around IN cord-256843-05m50voc 15 19 3000 3000 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 15 20 deaths death NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 15 21 by by IN cord-256843-05m50voc 15 22 March March NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 15 23 18 18 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 15 24 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 15 25 2020 2020 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 15 26 [ [ -LRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 15 27 1 1 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 15 28 ] ] -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 15 29 [ [ -LRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 15 30 2 2 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 15 31 ] ] -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 15 32 [ [ -LRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 15 33 3 3 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 15 34 ] ] -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 15 35 [ [ -LRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 15 36 4 4 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 15 37 ] ] -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 15 38 [ [ -LRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 15 39 5 5 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 15 40 ] ] -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 15 41 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 16 1 This this DT cord-256843-05m50voc 16 2 exponential exponential JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 16 3 increase increase NN cord-256843-05m50voc 16 4 in in IN cord-256843-05m50voc 16 5 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 16 6 positive positive JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 16 7 cases case NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 16 8 in in IN cord-256843-05m50voc 16 9 Italy Italy NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 16 10 raised raise VBD cord-256843-05m50voc 16 11 turmoil turmoil NN cord-256843-05m50voc 16 12 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 16 13 and and CC cord-256843-05m50voc 16 14 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 16 15 government government NN cord-256843-05m50voc 16 16 decree decree NN cord-256843-05m50voc 16 17 to to IN cord-256843-05m50voc 16 18 a a DT cord-256843-05m50voc 16 19 lockdown lockdown NN cord-256843-05m50voc 16 20 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 16 21 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 16 22 entire entire JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 16 23 country country NN cord-256843-05m50voc 16 24 [ [ -LRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 16 25 1 1 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 16 26 ] ] -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 16 27 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 17 1 Given give VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 17 2 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 17 3 seriousness seriousness NN cord-256843-05m50voc 17 4 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 17 5 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 17 6 situation situation NN cord-256843-05m50voc 17 7 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 17 8 it -PRON- PRP cord-256843-05m50voc 17 9 is be VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 17 10 absolutely absolutely RB cord-256843-05m50voc 17 11 necessary necessary JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 17 12 not not RB cord-256843-05m50voc 17 13 only only RB cord-256843-05m50voc 17 14 an an DT cord-256843-05m50voc 17 15 immediate immediate JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 17 16 intervention intervention NN cord-256843-05m50voc 17 17 but but CC cord-256843-05m50voc 17 18 also also RB cord-256843-05m50voc 17 19 a a DT cord-256843-05m50voc 17 20 criterion criterion NN cord-256843-05m50voc 17 21 for for IN cord-256843-05m50voc 17 22 assessing assess VBG cord-256843-05m50voc 17 23 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-256843-05m50voc 17 24 effectiveness effectiveness NN cord-256843-05m50voc 17 25 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 18 1 Article article NN cord-256843-05m50voc 18 2 on on IN cord-256843-05m50voc 18 3 modeling model VBG cord-256843-05m50voc 18 4 epidemic epidemic NN cord-256843-05m50voc 18 5 transition transition NN cord-256843-05m50voc 18 6 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 18 7 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 18 8 have have VBP cord-256843-05m50voc 18 9 been be VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 18 10 published publish VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 18 11 [ [ -LRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 18 12 1 1 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 18 13 ] ] -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 18 14 [ [ -LRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 18 15 2 2 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 18 16 ] ] -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 19 1 [ [ -LRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 19 2 3 3 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 19 3 ] ] -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 19 4 [ [ -LRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 19 5 4 4 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 19 6 ] ] -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 19 7 [ [ -LRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 19 8 5 5 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 19 9 ] ] -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 19 10 [ [ -LRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 19 11 6 6 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 19 12 ] ] -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 19 13 [ [ -LRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 19 14 7 7 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 19 15 ] ] -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 19 16 [ [ -LRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 19 17 8 8 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 19 18 ] ] -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 19 19 and and CC cord-256843-05m50voc 19 20 based base VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 19 21 on on IN cord-256843-05m50voc 19 22 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 19 23 previous previous JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 19 24 publication publication NN cord-256843-05m50voc 19 25 from from IN cord-256843-05m50voc 19 26 China China NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 19 27 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 19 28 South South NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 19 29 Korea Korea NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 19 30 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 19 31 Iran Iran NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 19 32 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 19 33 and and CC cord-256843-05m50voc 19 34 Japan Japan NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 19 35 presented present VBD cord-256843-05m50voc 19 36 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 19 37 estimation estimation NN cord-256843-05m50voc 19 38 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 19 39 epidemic epidemic NN cord-256843-05m50voc 19 40 trends trend NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 19 41 and and CC cord-256843-05m50voc 19 42 transmission transmission NN cord-256843-05m50voc 19 43 rates rate NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 19 44 [ [ -LRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 19 45 1 1 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 19 46 ] ] -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 19 47 [ [ -LRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 19 48 2 2 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 19 49 ] ] -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 19 50 [ [ -LRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 19 51 3 3 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 19 52 ] ] -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 19 53 [ [ -LRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 19 54 4 4 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 19 55 ] ] -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 19 56 [ [ -LRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 19 57 5 5 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 19 58 ] ] -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 19 59 [ [ -LRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 19 60 6 6 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 19 61 ] ] -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 19 62 [ [ -LRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 19 63 7 7 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 19 64 ] ] -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 19 65 [ [ -LRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 19 66 8 8 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 19 67 ] ] -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 19 68 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 20 1 Through through IN cord-256843-05m50voc 20 2 this this DT cord-256843-05m50voc 20 3 research research NN cord-256843-05m50voc 20 4 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 20 5 we -PRON- PRP cord-256843-05m50voc 20 6 evaluated evaluate VBD cord-256843-05m50voc 20 7 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 20 8 consistency consistency NN cord-256843-05m50voc 20 9 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 20 10 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 20 11 containment containment NN cord-256843-05m50voc 20 12 rules rule NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 20 13 and and CC cord-256843-05m50voc 20 14 identified identify VBD cord-256843-05m50voc 20 15 possible possible JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 20 16 SARS SARS NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 20 17 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 20 18 CoV-2 CoV-2 NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 20 19 local local JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 20 20 mutation mutation NN cord-256843-05m50voc 20 21 using use VBG cord-256843-05m50voc 20 22 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 20 23 S.E.I.R S.E.I.R NNPS cord-256843-05m50voc 20 24 mathematical mathematical JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 20 25 model model NN cord-256843-05m50voc 20 26 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 21 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-256843-05m50voc 21 2 used use VBD cord-256843-05m50voc 21 3 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 21 4 most most RBS cord-256843-05m50voc 21 5 representative representative JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 21 6 epidemic epidemic NN cord-256843-05m50voc 21 7 parameters parameter NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 21 8 that that WDT cord-256843-05m50voc 21 9 occurred occur VBD cord-256843-05m50voc 21 10 during during IN cord-256843-05m50voc 21 11 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 21 12 first first JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 21 13 half half NN cord-256843-05m50voc 21 14 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 21 15 March March NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 21 16 2020 2020 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 21 17 to to TO cord-256843-05m50voc 21 18 predict predict VB cord-256843-05m50voc 21 19 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 21 20 trend trend NN cord-256843-05m50voc 21 21 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 21 22 infections infection NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 21 23 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 22 1 Therefore therefore RB cord-256843-05m50voc 22 2 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 22 3 to to TO cord-256843-05m50voc 22 4 assess assess VB cord-256843-05m50voc 22 5 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 22 6 effectiveness effectiveness NN cord-256843-05m50voc 22 7 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 22 8 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 22 9 containment containment NN cord-256843-05m50voc 22 10 measures measure NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 22 11 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 22 12 it -PRON- PRP cord-256843-05m50voc 22 13 will will MD cord-256843-05m50voc 22 14 signal signal VB cord-256843-05m50voc 22 15 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 22 16 presence presence NN cord-256843-05m50voc 22 17 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 22 18 a a DT cord-256843-05m50voc 22 19 plausible plausible JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 22 20 evolutionary evolutionary JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 22 21 mutation mutation NN cord-256843-05m50voc 22 22 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 23 1 To to TO cord-256843-05m50voc 23 2 do do VB cord-256843-05m50voc 23 3 this this DT cord-256843-05m50voc 23 4 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 23 5 it -PRON- PRP cord-256843-05m50voc 23 6 will will MD cord-256843-05m50voc 23 7 be be VB cord-256843-05m50voc 23 8 sufficient sufficient JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 23 9 to to TO cord-256843-05m50voc 23 10 compare compare VB cord-256843-05m50voc 23 11 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 23 12 general general JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 23 13 trend trend NN cord-256843-05m50voc 23 14 foreseen foresee VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 23 15 by by IN cord-256843-05m50voc 23 16 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 23 17 S.E.I.R. S.E.I.R. NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 23 18 with with IN cord-256843-05m50voc 23 19 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 23 20 real real JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 23 21 Italian italian JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 23 22 population population NN cord-256843-05m50voc 23 23 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 24 1 To to TO cord-256843-05m50voc 24 2 carry carry VB cord-256843-05m50voc 24 3 out out RP cord-256843-05m50voc 24 4 this this DT cord-256843-05m50voc 24 5 study study NN cord-256843-05m50voc 24 6 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 24 7 we -PRON- PRP cord-256843-05m50voc 24 8 used use VBD cord-256843-05m50voc 24 9 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 24 10 most most RBS cord-256843-05m50voc 24 11 recent recent JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 24 12 data datum NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 24 13 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 24 14 found find VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 24 15 in in IN cord-256843-05m50voc 24 16 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 24 17 scientific scientific JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 24 18 literature literature NN cord-256843-05m50voc 24 19 relating relate VBG cord-256843-05m50voc 24 20 to to IN cord-256843-05m50voc 24 21 COVID-19 covid-19 VB cord-256843-05m50voc 24 22 total total JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 24 23 and and CC cord-256843-05m50voc 24 24 active active JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 24 25 cases case NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 24 26 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 24 27 deaths death NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 24 28 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 24 29 recoveries recovery NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 24 30 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 24 31 and and CC cord-256843-05m50voc 24 32 all all DT cord-256843-05m50voc 24 33 epidemic epidemic NN cord-256843-05m50voc 24 34 parameters parameter NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 24 35 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 24 36 have have VBP cord-256843-05m50voc 24 37 been be VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 24 38 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 25 1 CC CC NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 25 2 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 25 3 BY BY NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 25 4 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 25 5 NC NC NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 26 1 4.0 4.0 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 26 2 International international JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 26 3 license license NN cord-256843-05m50voc 27 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-256843-05m50voc 27 2 is be VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 27 3 made make VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 27 4 available available JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 27 5 under under IN cord-256843-05m50voc 27 6 a a DT cord-256843-05m50voc 27 7 author author NN cord-256843-05m50voc 27 8 / / SYM cord-256843-05m50voc 27 9 funder funder NN cord-256843-05m50voc 27 10 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 27 11 who who WP cord-256843-05m50voc 27 12 has have VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 27 13 granted grant VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 27 14 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 27 15 a a DT cord-256843-05m50voc 27 16 license license NN cord-256843-05m50voc 27 17 to to TO cord-256843-05m50voc 27 18 display display VB cord-256843-05m50voc 27 19 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 27 20 preprint preprint NN cord-256843-05m50voc 27 21 in in IN cord-256843-05m50voc 27 22 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-256843-05m50voc 27 23 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 28 1 is be VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 28 2 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 28 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 28 4 which which WDT cord-256843-05m50voc 28 5 was be VBD cord-256843-05m50voc 28 6 not not RB cord-256843-05m50voc 28 7 peer peer NN cord-256843-05m50voc 28 8 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 28 9 reviewed review VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 28 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 29 1 The the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 29 2 copyright copyright NN cord-256843-05m50voc 29 3 holder holder NN cord-256843-05m50voc 29 4 for for IN cord-256843-05m50voc 29 5 this this DT cord-256843-05m50voc 29 6 preprint preprint NN cord-256843-05m50voc 29 7 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 30 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.19.20038968 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.19.20038968 NN cord-256843-05m50voc 30 2 doi doi NN cord-256843-05m50voc 30 3 : : : cord-256843-05m50voc 31 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 31 2 preprint preprint NN cord-256843-05m50voc 31 3 used use VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 31 4 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 32 1 Since since IN cord-256843-05m50voc 32 2 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 32 3 Chinese chinese JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 32 4 situation situation NN cord-256843-05m50voc 32 5 has have VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 32 6 provided provide VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 32 7 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 32 8 most most JJS cord-256843-05m50voc 32 9 information information NN cord-256843-05m50voc 32 10 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 32 11 great great JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 32 12 statistical statistical JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 32 13 importance importance NN cord-256843-05m50voc 32 14 was be VBD cord-256843-05m50voc 32 15 given give VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 32 16 to to IN cord-256843-05m50voc 32 17 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 32 18 Sars Sars NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 32 19 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 32 20 Cov-2 Cov-2 NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 32 21 evolution evolution NN cord-256843-05m50voc 32 22 in in IN cord-256843-05m50voc 32 23 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 32 24 Hubei Hubei NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 32 25 region region NN cord-256843-05m50voc 32 26 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 32 27 with with IN cord-256843-05m50voc 32 28 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 32 29 implicit implicit JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 32 30 assumption assumption NN cord-256843-05m50voc 32 31 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 32 32 " " `` cord-256843-05m50voc 32 33 very very RB cord-256843-05m50voc 32 34 significant significant JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 32 35 local local JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 32 36 mutations mutation NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 32 37 " " '' cord-256843-05m50voc 32 38 absence absence NN cord-256843-05m50voc 32 39 necessary necessary JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 32 40 for for IN cord-256843-05m50voc 32 41 generalizing generalize VBG cord-256843-05m50voc 32 42 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 32 43 reports report NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 32 44 through through IN cord-256843-05m50voc 32 45 classical classical JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 32 46 inference inference NN cord-256843-05m50voc 32 47 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 33 1 The the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 33 2 statistics statistic NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 33 3 collected collect VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 33 4 on on IN cord-256843-05m50voc 33 5 virus virus NN cord-256843-05m50voc 33 6 mortality mortality NN cord-256843-05m50voc 33 7 were be VBD cord-256843-05m50voc 33 8 first first RB cord-256843-05m50voc 33 9 divided divide VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 33 10 by by IN cord-256843-05m50voc 33 11 age age NN cord-256843-05m50voc 33 12 group group NN cord-256843-05m50voc 33 13 and and CC cord-256843-05m50voc 33 14 then then RB cord-256843-05m50voc 33 15 recalibrated recalibrate VBD cord-256843-05m50voc 33 16 on on IN cord-256843-05m50voc 33 17 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 33 18 Italian italian JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 33 19 demography demography NN cord-256843-05m50voc 33 20 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 33 21 in in IN cord-256843-05m50voc 33 22 order order NN cord-256843-05m50voc 33 23 to to TO cord-256843-05m50voc 33 24 be be VB cord-256843-05m50voc 33 25 as as RB cord-256843-05m50voc 33 26 representative representative JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 33 27 as as IN cord-256843-05m50voc 33 28 possible possible JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 33 29 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 34 1 To to TO cord-256843-05m50voc 34 2 do do VB cord-256843-05m50voc 34 3 this this DT cord-256843-05m50voc 34 4 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 34 5 we -PRON- PRP cord-256843-05m50voc 34 6 considered consider VBD cord-256843-05m50voc 34 7 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 34 8 most most RBS cord-256843-05m50voc 34 9 representative representative JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 34 10 population population NN cord-256843-05m50voc 34 11 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 34 12 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 34 13 cases case NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 34 14 reported report VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 34 15 between between IN cord-256843-05m50voc 34 16 March March NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 34 17 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 34 18 1 1 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 34 19 - - SYM cord-256843-05m50voc 34 20 14 14 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 34 21 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 34 22 2020 2020 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 34 23 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 34 24 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 34 25 number number NN cord-256843-05m50voc 34 26 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 34 27 infected infected JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 34 28 persons person NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 34 29 necessary necessary JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 34 30 to to TO cord-256843-05m50voc 34 31 approach approach VB cord-256843-05m50voc 34 32 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 34 33 required required JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 34 34 mortality mortality NN cord-256843-05m50voc 34 35 rate rate NN cord-256843-05m50voc 34 36 was be VBD cord-256843-05m50voc 34 37 added add VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 34 38 to to IN cord-256843-05m50voc 34 39 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 34 40 correct correct JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 34 41 values value NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 34 42 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 35 1 To to TO cord-256843-05m50voc 35 2 obtain obtain VB cord-256843-05m50voc 35 3 a a DT cord-256843-05m50voc 35 4 more more RBR cord-256843-05m50voc 35 5 realistic realistic JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 35 6 trend trend NN cord-256843-05m50voc 35 7 and and CC cord-256843-05m50voc 35 8 assuming assume VBG cord-256843-05m50voc 35 9 true true JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 35 10 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 35 11 probable probable JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 35 12 " " `` cord-256843-05m50voc 35 13 non non JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 35 14 - - JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 35 15 relapse relapse JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 35 16 patients patient NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 35 17 " " '' cord-256843-05m50voc 35 18 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 35 19 and and CC cord-256843-05m50voc 35 20 we -PRON- PRP cord-256843-05m50voc 35 21 applied apply VBD cord-256843-05m50voc 35 22 S.E.I.R. S.E.I.R. NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 35 23 model model NN cord-256843-05m50voc 35 24 to to TO cord-256843-05m50voc 35 25 predict predict VB cord-256843-05m50voc 35 26 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 35 27 virus virus NN cord-256843-05m50voc 35 28 progress progress NN cord-256843-05m50voc 35 29 in in IN cord-256843-05m50voc 35 30 Italy Italy NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 35 31 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 36 1 As as IN cord-256843-05m50voc 36 2 a a DT cord-256843-05m50voc 36 3 note note NN cord-256843-05m50voc 36 4 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 36 5 it -PRON- PRP cord-256843-05m50voc 36 6 is be VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 36 7 not not RB cord-256843-05m50voc 36 8 possible possible JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 36 9 to to TO cord-256843-05m50voc 36 10 estimate estimate VB cord-256843-05m50voc 36 11 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 36 12 containment containment NN cord-256843-05m50voc 36 13 measures measure NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 36 14 taken take VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 36 15 by by IN cord-256843-05m50voc 36 16 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 36 17 government government NN cord-256843-05m50voc 36 18 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 37 1 However however RB cord-256843-05m50voc 37 2 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 37 3 at at IN cord-256843-05m50voc 37 4 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 37 5 same same JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 37 6 time time NN cord-256843-05m50voc 37 7 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 37 8 assuming assume VBG cord-256843-05m50voc 37 9 that that IN cord-256843-05m50voc 37 10 only only RB cord-256843-05m50voc 37 11 half half NN cord-256843-05m50voc 37 12 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 37 13 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 37 14 population population NN cord-256843-05m50voc 37 15 was be VBD cord-256843-05m50voc 37 16 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 37 17 to to IN cord-256843-05m50voc 37 18 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 37 19 virus virus NN cord-256843-05m50voc 37 20 precisely precisely RB cord-256843-05m50voc 37 21 due due JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 37 22 to to IN cord-256843-05m50voc 37 23 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 37 24 above above JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 37 25 containment containment NN cord-256843-05m50voc 37 26 measures measure NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 37 27 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 38 1 Thanks thank NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 38 2 to to IN cord-256843-05m50voc 38 3 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 38 4 comparison comparison NN cord-256843-05m50voc 38 5 between between IN cord-256843-05m50voc 38 6 real real JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 38 7 and and CC cord-256843-05m50voc 38 8 theoretical theoretical JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 38 9 evolution evolution NN cord-256843-05m50voc 38 10 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 38 11 it -PRON- PRP cord-256843-05m50voc 38 12 is be VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 38 13 likely likely JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 38 14 to to TO cord-256843-05m50voc 38 15 estimate estimate VB cord-256843-05m50voc 38 16 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 38 17 presence presence NN cord-256843-05m50voc 38 18 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 38 19 essential essential JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 38 20 mutations mutation NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 38 21 and/or and/or CC cord-256843-05m50voc 38 22 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 38 23 limitation limitation NN cord-256843-05m50voc 38 24 strategy strategy NN cord-256843-05m50voc 38 25 effectiveness effectiveness NN cord-256843-05m50voc 38 26 through through IN cord-256843-05m50voc 38 27 similarities similarity NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 38 28 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 38 29 anomalies anomaly NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 38 30 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 38 31 or or CC cord-256843-05m50voc 38 32 substantial substantial JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 38 33 deviations deviation NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 38 34 from from IN cord-256843-05m50voc 38 35 each each DT cord-256843-05m50voc 38 36 other other JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 38 37 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 39 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-256843-05m50voc 39 2 used use VBD cord-256843-05m50voc 39 3 S.E.I.R. s.e.i.r. NN cord-256843-05m50voc 39 4 differential differential JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 39 5 equations equation NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 39 6 and and CC cord-256843-05m50voc 39 7 non non JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 39 8 - - JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 39 9 linear linear JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 39 10 methods method NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 39 11 to to TO cord-256843-05m50voc 39 12 resolve resolve VB cord-256843-05m50voc 39 13 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 39 14 gaps gap NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 39 15 analytically analytically RB cord-256843-05m50voc 39 16 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 40 1 An an DT cord-256843-05m50voc 40 2 interactive interactive JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 40 3 algorithm algorithm NN cord-256843-05m50voc 40 4 was be VBD cord-256843-05m50voc 40 5 developed develop VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 40 6 using use VBG cord-256843-05m50voc 40 7 C++ C++ NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 40 8 software software NN cord-256843-05m50voc 40 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 40 10 version version NN cord-256843-05m50voc 40 11 ) ) -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 40 12 to to TO cord-256843-05m50voc 40 13 find find VB cord-256843-05m50voc 40 14 a a DT cord-256843-05m50voc 40 15 solution solution NN cord-256843-05m50voc 40 16 through through IN cord-256843-05m50voc 40 17 a a DT cord-256843-05m50voc 40 18 finite finite JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 40 19 discretization discretization NN cord-256843-05m50voc 40 20 method method NN cord-256843-05m50voc 40 21 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 41 1 The the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 41 2 total total JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 41 3 population population NN cord-256843-05m50voc 41 4 number number NN cord-256843-05m50voc 41 5 has have VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 41 6 been be VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 41 7 considered consider VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 41 8 constant constant JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 41 9 because because IN cord-256843-05m50voc 41 10 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 41 11 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 41 12 very very RB cord-256843-05m50voc 41 13 low low JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 41 14 deaths death NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 41 15 / / SYM cord-256843-05m50voc 41 16 population population NN cord-256843-05m50voc 41 17 ratio ratio NN cord-256843-05m50voc 41 18 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 41 19 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 42 1 CC CC NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 42 2 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 42 3 BY BY NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 42 4 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 42 5 NC NC NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 43 1 4.0 4.0 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 43 2 International international JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 43 3 license license NN cord-256843-05m50voc 44 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-256843-05m50voc 44 2 is be VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 44 3 made make VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 44 4 available available JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 44 5 under under IN cord-256843-05m50voc 44 6 a a DT cord-256843-05m50voc 44 7 author author NN cord-256843-05m50voc 44 8 / / SYM cord-256843-05m50voc 44 9 funder funder NN cord-256843-05m50voc 44 10 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 44 11 who who WP cord-256843-05m50voc 44 12 has have VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 44 13 granted grant VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 44 14 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 44 15 a a DT cord-256843-05m50voc 44 16 license license NN cord-256843-05m50voc 44 17 to to TO cord-256843-05m50voc 44 18 display display VB cord-256843-05m50voc 44 19 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 44 20 preprint preprint NN cord-256843-05m50voc 44 21 in in IN cord-256843-05m50voc 44 22 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-256843-05m50voc 44 23 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 45 1 is be VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 45 2 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 45 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 45 4 which which WDT cord-256843-05m50voc 45 5 was be VBD cord-256843-05m50voc 45 6 not not RB cord-256843-05m50voc 45 7 peer peer NN cord-256843-05m50voc 45 8 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 45 9 reviewed review VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 45 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 46 1 The the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 46 2 copyright copyright NN cord-256843-05m50voc 46 3 holder holder NN cord-256843-05m50voc 46 4 for for IN cord-256843-05m50voc 46 5 this this DT cord-256843-05m50voc 46 6 preprint preprint NN cord-256843-05m50voc 46 7 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 47 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.19.20038968 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.19.20038968 NN cord-256843-05m50voc 47 2 doi doi NN cord-256843-05m50voc 47 3 : : : cord-256843-05m50voc 48 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 48 2 preprint preprint NN cord-256843-05m50voc 48 3 By by IN cord-256843-05m50voc 48 4 entering enter VBG cord-256843-05m50voc 48 5 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 48 6 initial initial JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 48 7 values value NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 48 8 for for IN cord-256843-05m50voc 48 9 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 48 10 incubation incubation NN cord-256843-05m50voc 48 11 time time NN cord-256843-05m50voc 49 1 1 1 LS cord-256843-05m50voc 49 2 / / SYM cord-256843-05m50voc 49 3 σ σ NN cord-256843-05m50voc 49 4 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 49 5 recovery recovery NN cord-256843-05m50voc 49 6 time time NN cord-256843-05m50voc 49 7 1 1 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 49 8 / / SYM cord-256843-05m50voc 49 9 γ γ NN cord-256843-05m50voc 49 10 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 49 11 basic basic JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 49 12 reproduction reproduction NN cord-256843-05m50voc 49 13 number number NN cord-256843-05m50voc 49 14 R0 R0 NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 49 15 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 49 16 and and CC cord-256843-05m50voc 49 17 number number NN cord-256843-05m50voc 49 18 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 49 19 infected infect VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 49 20 I I NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 49 21 0 0 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 49 22 on on IN cord-256843-05m50voc 49 23 March March NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 49 24 1 1 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 49 25 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 49 26 2020 2020 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 50 1 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 50 2 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 50 3 software software NN cord-256843-05m50voc 50 4 prints print VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 50 5 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 50 6 S.E.I.R. S.E.I.R. NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 50 7 values value NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 50 8 day day NN cord-256843-05m50voc 50 9 by by IN cord-256843-05m50voc 50 10 day day NN cord-256843-05m50voc 50 11 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 51 1 The the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 51 2 best good JJS cord-256843-05m50voc 51 3 epidemic epidemic NN cord-256843-05m50voc 51 4 parameters parameter NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 51 5 were be VBD cord-256843-05m50voc 51 6 estimated estimate VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 51 7 through through IN cord-256843-05m50voc 51 8 continuous continuous JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 51 9 iteration iteration NN cord-256843-05m50voc 51 10 until until IN cord-256843-05m50voc 51 11 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 51 12 " " `` cord-256843-05m50voc 51 13 closest close JJS cord-256843-05m50voc 51 14 values value NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 51 15 to to IN cord-256843-05m50voc 51 16 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 51 17 real real JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 51 18 ones one NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 51 19 " " '' cord-256843-05m50voc 51 20 were be VBD cord-256843-05m50voc 51 21 reached reach VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 51 22 until until IN cord-256843-05m50voc 51 23 March March NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 51 24 14 14 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 51 25 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 51 26 2020 2020 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 51 27 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 52 1 The the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 52 2 number number NN cord-256843-05m50voc 52 3 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 52 4 initial initial JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 52 5 incubates incubate NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 52 6 was be VBD cord-256843-05m50voc 52 7 calculated calculate VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 52 8 with with IN cord-256843-05m50voc 52 9 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 52 10 formula formula NN cord-256843-05m50voc 52 11 E e NN cord-256843-05m50voc 52 12 0 0 NN cord-256843-05m50voc 52 13 = = NFP cord-256843-05m50voc 53 1 R0·I r0·i NN cord-256843-05m50voc 53 2 0 0 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 53 3 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 54 1 After after IN cord-256843-05m50voc 54 2 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 54 3 reconstruction reconstruction NN cord-256843-05m50voc 54 4 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 54 5 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 54 6 real real JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 54 7 data datum NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 54 8 on on IN cord-256843-05m50voc 54 9 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 54 10 in in IN cord-256843-05m50voc 54 11 Italy Italy NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 54 12 in in IN cord-256843-05m50voc 54 13 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 54 14 period period NN cord-256843-05m50voc 54 15 March March NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 54 16 2020 2020 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 54 17 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 54 18 1 1 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 54 19 - - SYM cord-256843-05m50voc 54 20 14 14 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 54 21 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 54 22 through through IN cord-256843-05m50voc 54 23 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 54 24 above above JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 54 25 methods method NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 54 26 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 54 27 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 54 28 best good JJS cord-256843-05m50voc 54 29 estimates estimate NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 54 30 obtained obtain VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 54 31 for for IN cord-256843-05m50voc 54 32 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 54 33 Italian italian JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 54 34 epidemic epidemic NN cord-256843-05m50voc 54 35 parameters parameter NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 54 36 are be VBP cord-256843-05m50voc 54 37 1 1 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 54 38 / / SYM cord-256843-05m50voc 54 39 σ σ NN cord-256843-05m50voc 54 40 = = NFP cord-256843-05m50voc 55 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 55 2 3±1 3±1 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 55 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 55 4 days day NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 55 5 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 55 6 1 1 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 55 7 / / SYM cord-256843-05m50voc 55 8 γ γ NN cord-256843-05m50voc 55 9 = = SYM cord-256843-05m50voc 55 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 55 11 15±3 15±3 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 55 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 55 13 days day NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 55 14 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 55 15 R0 R0 NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 55 16 = = SYM cord-256843-05m50voc 55 17 3.51 3.51 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 55 18 ± ± CD cord-256843-05m50voc 55 19 5 5 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 55 20 % % NN cord-256843-05m50voc 55 21 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 55 22 I i NN cord-256843-05m50voc 55 23 0 0 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 55 24 = = SYM cord-256843-05m50voc 55 25 3350 3350 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 55 26 ± ± CD cord-256843-05m50voc 55 27 20 20 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 55 28 % % NN cord-256843-05m50voc 55 29 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 56 1 The the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 56 2 model model NN cord-256843-05m50voc 56 3 predicts predict VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 56 4 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 56 5 following follow VBG cord-256843-05m50voc 56 6 values value NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 56 7 for for IN cord-256843-05m50voc 56 8 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 56 9 next next JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 56 10 7 7 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 56 11 days day NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 56 12 ( ( -LRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 56 13 March March NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 56 14 2020 2020 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 56 15 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 56 16 15 15 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 56 17 - - SYM cord-256843-05m50voc 56 18 22 22 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 56 19 ) ) -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 56 20 with with IN cord-256843-05m50voc 56 21 " " `` cord-256843-05m50voc 56 22 D D NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 56 23 " " '' cord-256843-05m50voc 56 24 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 57 1 CC CC NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 57 2 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 57 3 BY BY NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 57 4 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 57 5 NC NC NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 57 6 4.0 4.0 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 57 7 International international JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 57 8 license license NN cord-256843-05m50voc 57 9 It -PRON- PRP cord-256843-05m50voc 57 10 is be VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 57 11 made make VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 57 12 available available JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 57 13 under under IN cord-256843-05m50voc 57 14 a a DT cord-256843-05m50voc 57 15 author author NN cord-256843-05m50voc 57 16 / / SYM cord-256843-05m50voc 57 17 funder funder NN cord-256843-05m50voc 57 18 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 57 19 who who WP cord-256843-05m50voc 57 20 has have VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 57 21 granted grant VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 57 22 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 57 23 a a DT cord-256843-05m50voc 57 24 license license NN cord-256843-05m50voc 57 25 to to TO cord-256843-05m50voc 57 26 display display VB cord-256843-05m50voc 57 27 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 57 28 preprint preprint NN cord-256843-05m50voc 57 29 in in IN cord-256843-05m50voc 57 30 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-256843-05m50voc 57 31 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 58 1 is be VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 58 2 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 58 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 58 4 which which WDT cord-256843-05m50voc 58 5 was be VBD cord-256843-05m50voc 58 6 not not RB cord-256843-05m50voc 58 7 peer peer NN cord-256843-05m50voc 58 8 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 58 9 reviewed review VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 58 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 59 1 The the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 59 2 copyright copyright NN cord-256843-05m50voc 59 3 holder holder NN cord-256843-05m50voc 59 4 for for IN cord-256843-05m50voc 59 5 this this DT cord-256843-05m50voc 59 6 preprint preprint NN cord-256843-05m50voc 59 7 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 60 1 These these DT cord-256843-05m50voc 60 2 values value NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 60 3 obviously obviously RB cord-256843-05m50voc 60 4 refer refer VBP cord-256843-05m50voc 60 5 to to IN cord-256843-05m50voc 60 6 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 60 7 population population NN cord-256843-05m50voc 60 8 with with IN cord-256843-05m50voc 60 9 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 60 10 constant constant JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 60 11 mortality mortality NN cord-256843-05m50voc 60 12 rate rate NN cord-256843-05m50voc 60 13 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 60 14 3.2 3.2 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 60 15 % % NN cord-256843-05m50voc 60 16 ; ; , cord-256843-05m50voc 60 17 however however RB cord-256843-05m50voc 60 18 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 60 19 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 60 20 real real JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 60 21 number number NN cord-256843-05m50voc 60 22 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 60 23 deaths death NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 60 24 must must MD cord-256843-05m50voc 60 25 be be VB cord-256843-05m50voc 60 26 strictly strictly RB cord-256843-05m50voc 60 27 less less JJR cord-256843-05m50voc 60 28 than than IN cord-256843-05m50voc 60 29 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 60 30 theoretical theoretical JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 60 31 one one CD cord-256843-05m50voc 60 32 expected expect VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 61 1 or or CC cord-256843-05m50voc 61 2 we -PRON- PRP cord-256843-05m50voc 61 3 will will MD cord-256843-05m50voc 61 4 talk talk VB cord-256843-05m50voc 61 5 about about IN cord-256843-05m50voc 61 6 mutation mutation NN cord-256843-05m50voc 61 7 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 62 1 Thus thus RB cord-256843-05m50voc 62 2 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 62 3 thanks thank NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 62 4 to to IN cord-256843-05m50voc 62 5 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 62 6 results result NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 62 7 obtained obtain VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 62 8 from from IN cord-256843-05m50voc 62 9 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 62 10 application application NN cord-256843-05m50voc 62 11 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 62 12 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 62 13 S.E.I.R. S.E.I.R. NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 62 14 model model NN cord-256843-05m50voc 62 15 we -PRON- PRP cord-256843-05m50voc 62 16 can can MD cord-256843-05m50voc 62 17 foresee foresee VB cord-256843-05m50voc 62 18 three three CD cord-256843-05m50voc 62 19 possible possible JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 62 20 scenarios scenario NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 62 21 : : : cord-256843-05m50voc 62 22 If if IN cord-256843-05m50voc 62 23 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 62 24 in in IN cord-256843-05m50voc 62 25 Italy Italy NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 62 26 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 62 27 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 62 28 real real JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 62 29 next next JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 62 30 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 62 31 days day NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 62 32 trend trend NN cord-256843-05m50voc 62 33 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 62 34 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 62 35 total total JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 62 36 infected infected JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 62 37 number number NN cord-256843-05m50voc 62 38 will will MD cord-256843-05m50voc 62 39 be be VB cord-256843-05m50voc 62 40 lower low JJR cord-256843-05m50voc 62 41 than than IN cord-256843-05m50voc 62 42 that that DT cord-256843-05m50voc 62 43 shown show VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 62 44 in in IN cord-256843-05m50voc 62 45 figure figure NN cord-256843-05m50voc 62 46 1 1 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 62 47 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 62 48 we -PRON- PRP cord-256843-05m50voc 62 49 can can MD cord-256843-05m50voc 62 50 assume assume VB cord-256843-05m50voc 62 51 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 62 52 following follow VBG cord-256843-05m50voc 62 53 events event NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 62 54 set set VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 62 55 out out RP cord-256843-05m50voc 62 56 in in IN cord-256843-05m50voc 62 57 order order NN cord-256843-05m50voc 62 58 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 62 59 probability probability NN cord-256843-05m50voc 62 60 : : : cord-256843-05m50voc 62 61 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 62 62 containment containment NN cord-256843-05m50voc 62 63 measures measure NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 62 64 adopted adopt VBD cord-256843-05m50voc 62 65 10 10 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 62 66 days day NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 62 67 ago ago RB cord-256843-05m50voc 62 68 are be VBP cord-256843-05m50voc 62 69 taking take VBG cord-256843-05m50voc 62 70 effect effect NN cord-256843-05m50voc 62 71 ; ; : cord-256843-05m50voc 62 72 Sars Sars NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 62 73 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 62 74 Cov-2 Cov-2 NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 62 75 has have VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 62 76 undergone undergo VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 62 77 a a DT cord-256843-05m50voc 62 78 significant significant JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 62 79 anti anti JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 62 80 - - JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 62 81 evolutionary evolutionary JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 62 82 mutation mutation NN cord-256843-05m50voc 62 83 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 63 1 If if IN cord-256843-05m50voc 63 2 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 63 3 in in IN cord-256843-05m50voc 63 4 Italy Italy NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 63 5 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 63 6 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 63 7 real real JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 63 8 next next JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 63 9 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 63 10 days day NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 63 11 trend trend NN cord-256843-05m50voc 63 12 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 63 13 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 63 14 total total JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 63 15 infected infected JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 63 16 number number NN cord-256843-05m50voc 63 17 will will MD cord-256843-05m50voc 63 18 be be VB cord-256843-05m50voc 63 19 equal equal JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 63 20 than than IN cord-256843-05m50voc 63 21 that that DT cord-256843-05m50voc 63 22 shown show VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 63 23 in in IN cord-256843-05m50voc 63 24 figure figure NN cord-256843-05m50voc 63 25 1 1 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 63 26 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 64 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-256843-05m50voc 64 2 assume assume VBP cord-256843-05m50voc 64 3 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 64 4 following follow VBG cord-256843-05m50voc 64 5 events event NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 64 6 set set VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 64 7 out out RP cord-256843-05m50voc 64 8 in in IN cord-256843-05m50voc 64 9 order order NN cord-256843-05m50voc 64 10 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 64 11 probability probability NN cord-256843-05m50voc 64 12 : : : cord-256843-05m50voc 64 13 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 64 14 containment containment NN cord-256843-05m50voc 64 15 measures measure NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 64 16 adopted adopt VBD cord-256843-05m50voc 64 17 10 10 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 64 18 days day NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 64 19 ago ago RB cord-256843-05m50voc 64 20 are be VBP cord-256843-05m50voc 64 21 not not RB cord-256843-05m50voc 64 22 taking take VBG cord-256843-05m50voc 64 23 effect effect NN cord-256843-05m50voc 64 24 ; ; : cord-256843-05m50voc 64 25 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 64 26 containment containment NN cord-256843-05m50voc 64 27 measures measure NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 64 28 adopted adopt VBD cord-256843-05m50voc 64 29 10 10 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 64 30 days day NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 64 31 ago ago RB cord-256843-05m50voc 64 32 are be VBP cord-256843-05m50voc 64 33 taking take VBG cord-256843-05m50voc 64 34 effect effect NN cord-256843-05m50voc 64 35 and and CC cord-256843-05m50voc 64 36 Sars Sars NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 64 37 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 64 38 Cov-2 Cov-2 NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 64 39 has have VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 64 40 undergone undergo VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 64 41 a a DT cord-256843-05m50voc 64 42 significant significant JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 64 43 evolutionary evolutionary JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 64 44 mutation mutation NN cord-256843-05m50voc 64 45 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 65 1 If if IN cord-256843-05m50voc 65 2 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 65 3 in in IN cord-256843-05m50voc 65 4 Italy Italy NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 65 5 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 65 6 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 65 7 real real JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 65 8 next next JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 65 9 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 65 10 days day NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 65 11 trend trend NN cord-256843-05m50voc 65 12 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 65 13 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 65 14 total total JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 65 15 infected infected JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 65 16 number number NN cord-256843-05m50voc 65 17 will will MD cord-256843-05m50voc 65 18 be be VB cord-256843-05m50voc 65 19 higher high JJR cord-256843-05m50voc 65 20 than than IN cord-256843-05m50voc 65 21 that that DT cord-256843-05m50voc 65 22 shown show VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 65 23 in in IN cord-256843-05m50voc 65 24 figure figure NN cord-256843-05m50voc 65 25 1 1 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 65 26 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 66 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-256843-05m50voc 66 2 assume assume VBP cord-256843-05m50voc 66 3 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 66 4 following follow VBG cord-256843-05m50voc 66 5 events event NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 66 6 set set VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 66 7 out out RP cord-256843-05m50voc 66 8 in in IN cord-256843-05m50voc 66 9 order order NN cord-256843-05m50voc 66 10 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 66 11 probability probability NN cord-256843-05m50voc 66 12 : : : cord-256843-05m50voc 66 13 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 66 14 containment containment NN cord-256843-05m50voc 66 15 measures measure NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 66 16 adopted adopt VBD cord-256843-05m50voc 66 17 10 10 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 66 18 days day NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 66 19 ago ago RB cord-256843-05m50voc 66 20 are be VBP cord-256843-05m50voc 66 21 not not RB cord-256843-05m50voc 66 22 taking take VBG cord-256843-05m50voc 66 23 effect effect NN cord-256843-05m50voc 66 24 and and CC cord-256843-05m50voc 66 25 Sars Sars NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 66 26 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 66 27 Cov-2 Cov-2 NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 66 28 has have VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 66 29 undergone undergo VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 66 30 a a DT cord-256843-05m50voc 66 31 significant significant JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 66 32 evolutionary evolutionary JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 66 33 mutation mutation NN cord-256843-05m50voc 66 34 ; ; : cord-256843-05m50voc 66 35 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 66 36 S.E.I.R S.E.I.R NNPS cord-256843-05m50voc 66 37 model model NN cord-256843-05m50voc 66 38 is be VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 66 39 no no DT cord-256843-05m50voc 66 40 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 66 41 more more JJR cord-256843-05m50voc 66 42 representative representative NN cord-256843-05m50voc 66 43 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 66 44 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 66 45 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 66 46 Italian italian JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 66 47 case case NN cord-256843-05m50voc 66 48 and and CC cord-256843-05m50voc 66 49 we -PRON- PRP cord-256843-05m50voc 66 50 should should MD cord-256843-05m50voc 66 51 utilize utilize VB cord-256843-05m50voc 66 52 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 66 53 S.E.I.R.S. s.e.i.r.s. CD cord-256843-05m50voc 66 54 model model NN cord-256843-05m50voc 66 55 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 67 1 Even even RB cord-256843-05m50voc 67 2 considering consider VBG cord-256843-05m50voc 67 3 an an DT cord-256843-05m50voc 67 4 admissible admissible JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 67 5 " " `` cord-256843-05m50voc 67 6 theoretical theoretical JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 67 7 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 67 8 estimates estimate NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 67 9 statistical statistical JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 67 10 error error NN cord-256843-05m50voc 67 11 " " '' cord-256843-05m50voc 67 12 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 67 13 ± ± NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 67 14 5 5 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 67 15 % % NN cord-256843-05m50voc 67 16 these these DT cord-256843-05m50voc 67 17 values value NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 67 18 could could MD cord-256843-05m50voc 67 19 not not RB cord-256843-05m50voc 67 20 be be VB cord-256843-05m50voc 67 21 accepted accept VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 67 22 since since IN cord-256843-05m50voc 67 23 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 67 24 trend trend NN cord-256843-05m50voc 67 25 indicates indicate VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 67 26 a a DT cord-256843-05m50voc 67 27 faster fast JJR cord-256843-05m50voc 67 28 growth growth NN cord-256843-05m50voc 67 29 than than IN cord-256843-05m50voc 67 30 that that DT cord-256843-05m50voc 67 31 predicted predict VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 67 32 by by IN cord-256843-05m50voc 67 33 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 67 34 model model NN cord-256843-05m50voc 67 35 with with IN cord-256843-05m50voc 67 36 a a DT cord-256843-05m50voc 67 37 breakeven breakeven NN cord-256843-05m50voc 67 38 point point NN cord-256843-05m50voc 67 39 between between IN cord-256843-05m50voc 67 40 15 15 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 67 41 and and CC cord-256843-05m50voc 67 42 16 16 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 67 43 March March NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 67 44 and and CC cord-256843-05m50voc 67 45 a a DT cord-256843-05m50voc 67 46 percentage percentage NN cord-256843-05m50voc 67 47 difference difference NN cord-256843-05m50voc 67 48 in in IN cord-256843-05m50voc 67 49 net net JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 67 50 growth growth NN cord-256843-05m50voc 67 51 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 68 1 Deepening deepen VBG cord-256843-05m50voc 68 2 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 68 3 discussion discussion NN cord-256843-05m50voc 68 4 and and CC cord-256843-05m50voc 68 5 going go VBG cord-256843-05m50voc 68 6 to to TO cord-256843-05m50voc 68 7 analyze analyze VB cord-256843-05m50voc 68 8 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 68 9 cases case NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 68 10 region region NN cord-256843-05m50voc 68 11 by by IN cord-256843-05m50voc 68 12 region region NN cord-256843-05m50voc 68 13 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 68 14 a a DT cord-256843-05m50voc 68 15 very very RB cord-256843-05m50voc 68 16 significant significant JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 68 17 result result NN cord-256843-05m50voc 68 18 turns turn VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 68 19 out out RP cord-256843-05m50voc 68 20 : : : cord-256843-05m50voc 68 21 with with IN cord-256843-05m50voc 68 22 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 68 23 exception exception NN cord-256843-05m50voc 68 24 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 68 25 Lombardy Lombardy NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 68 26 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 68 27 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 68 28 trend trend NN cord-256843-05m50voc 68 29 in in IN cord-256843-05m50voc 68 30 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 68 31 number number NN cord-256843-05m50voc 68 32 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 68 33 infected infected JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 68 34 is be VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 68 35 very very RB cord-256843-05m50voc 68 36 good good JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 68 37 _SP cord-256843-05m50voc 68 38 Given give VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 68 39 that that DT cord-256843-05m50voc 68 40 · · NFP cord-256843-05m50voc 68 41 It -PRON- PRP cord-256843-05m50voc 68 42 seems seem VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 68 43 unlikely unlikely JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 68 44 that that IN cord-256843-05m50voc 68 45 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 68 46 virus virus NN cord-256843-05m50voc 68 47 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 68 48 without without IN cord-256843-05m50voc 68 49 significantly significantly RB cord-256843-05m50voc 68 50 changing change VBG cord-256843-05m50voc 68 51 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 68 52 could could MD cord-256843-05m50voc 68 53 infect infect VB cord-256843-05m50voc 68 54 a a DT cord-256843-05m50voc 68 55 patient patient NN cord-256843-05m50voc 68 56 again again RB cord-256843-05m50voc 68 57 [ [ -LRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 68 58 1 1 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 68 59 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 68 60 2 2 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 68 61 ] ] -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 68 62 [ [ -LRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 68 63 12 12 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 68 64 ] ] -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 68 65 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 68 66 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 69 1 CC CC NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 69 2 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 69 3 BY BY NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 69 4 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 69 5 NC NC NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 69 6 4.0 4.0 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 69 7 International international JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 69 8 license license NN cord-256843-05m50voc 70 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-256843-05m50voc 70 2 is be VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 70 3 made make VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 70 4 available available JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 70 5 under under IN cord-256843-05m50voc 70 6 a a DT cord-256843-05m50voc 70 7 author author NN cord-256843-05m50voc 70 8 / / SYM cord-256843-05m50voc 70 9 funder funder NN cord-256843-05m50voc 70 10 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 70 11 who who WP cord-256843-05m50voc 70 12 has have VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 70 13 granted grant VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 70 14 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 70 15 a a DT cord-256843-05m50voc 70 16 license license NN cord-256843-05m50voc 70 17 to to TO cord-256843-05m50voc 70 18 display display VB cord-256843-05m50voc 70 19 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 70 20 preprint preprint NN cord-256843-05m50voc 70 21 in in IN cord-256843-05m50voc 70 22 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-256843-05m50voc 70 23 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 71 1 is be VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 71 2 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 71 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 71 4 which which WDT cord-256843-05m50voc 71 5 was be VBD cord-256843-05m50voc 71 6 not not RB cord-256843-05m50voc 71 7 peer peer NN cord-256843-05m50voc 71 8 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 71 9 reviewed review VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 71 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 72 1 The the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 72 2 copyright copyright NN cord-256843-05m50voc 72 3 holder holder NN cord-256843-05m50voc 72 4 for for IN cord-256843-05m50voc 72 5 this this DT cord-256843-05m50voc 72 6 preprint preprint NN cord-256843-05m50voc 72 7 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 73 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.19.20038968 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.19.20038968 NN cord-256843-05m50voc 73 2 doi doi NN cord-256843-05m50voc 73 3 : : : cord-256843-05m50voc 74 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 74 2 preprint preprint NN cord-256843-05m50voc 74 3 · · NFP cord-256843-05m50voc 74 4 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 74 5 mortality mortality NN cord-256843-05m50voc 74 6 rate rate NN cord-256843-05m50voc 74 7 in in IN cord-256843-05m50voc 74 8 Italy Italy NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 74 9 is be VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 74 10 too too RB cord-256843-05m50voc 74 11 low low JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 74 12 to to TO cord-256843-05m50voc 74 13 be be VB cord-256843-05m50voc 74 14 significant significant JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 74 15 in in IN cord-256843-05m50voc 74 16 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 74 17 short short JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 74 18 term term NN cord-256843-05m50voc 74 19 [ [ -LRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 74 20 8 8 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 74 21 ] ] -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 74 22 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 74 23 · · NFP cord-256843-05m50voc 74 24 young young JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 74 25 children child NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 74 26 appear appear VBP cord-256843-05m50voc 74 27 to to TO cord-256843-05m50voc 74 28 have have VB cord-256843-05m50voc 74 29 a a DT cord-256843-05m50voc 74 30 secondary secondary JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 74 31 role role NN cord-256843-05m50voc 74 32 in in IN cord-256843-05m50voc 74 33 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 74 34 spread spread NN cord-256843-05m50voc 74 35 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 74 36 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 74 37 infection infection NN cord-256843-05m50voc 74 38 [ [ -LRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 74 39 8 8 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 74 40 ] ] -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 74 41 [ [ -LRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 74 42 17 17 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 74 43 ] ] -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 75 1 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 75 2 We -PRON- PRP cord-256843-05m50voc 75 3 will will MD cord-256843-05m50voc 75 4 investigate investigate VB cord-256843-05m50voc 75 5 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 75 6 possible possible JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 75 7 scenarios scenario NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 75 8 through through IN cord-256843-05m50voc 75 9 S.E.I.R. S.E.I.R. NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 75 10 model model NN cord-256843-05m50voc 75 11 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 76 1 Using use VBG cord-256843-05m50voc 76 2 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 76 3 discretization discretization NN cord-256843-05m50voc 76 4 carried carry VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 76 5 out out RP cord-256843-05m50voc 76 6 in in IN cord-256843-05m50voc 76 7 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 76 8 previous previous JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 76 9 study study NN cord-256843-05m50voc 76 10 " " `` cord-256843-05m50voc 76 11 Mathematical mathematical JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 76 12 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 76 13 statistical statistical JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 76 14 modeling modeling NN cord-256843-05m50voc 76 15 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 76 16 COVID-19 covid-19 NN cord-256843-05m50voc 76 17 on on IN cord-256843-05m50voc 76 18 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 76 19 restricted restricted JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 76 20 population population NN cord-256843-05m50voc 76 21 " " '' cord-256843-05m50voc 76 22 [ [ -LRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 76 23 8 8 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 76 24 ] ] -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 76 25 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 76 26 a a DT cord-256843-05m50voc 76 27 new new JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 76 28 C++ C++ NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 76 29 software software NN cord-256843-05m50voc 76 30 was be VBD cord-256843-05m50voc 76 31 created create VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 76 32 to to TO cord-256843-05m50voc 76 33 print print VB cord-256843-05m50voc 76 34 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 76 35 values value NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 76 36 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 76 37 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 76 38 S.E.I.R. S.E.I.R. NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 76 39 day day NN cord-256843-05m50voc 76 40 by by IN cord-256843-05m50voc 76 41 day day NN cord-256843-05m50voc 76 42 until until IN cord-256843-05m50voc 76 43 a a DT cord-256843-05m50voc 76 44 specific specific JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 76 45 date date NN cord-256843-05m50voc 76 46 and/or and/or CC cord-256843-05m50voc 76 47 situation situation NN cord-256843-05m50voc 76 48 ( ( -LRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 76 49 2 2 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 76 50 ) ) -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 76 51 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 77 1 However however RB cord-256843-05m50voc 77 2 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 77 3 unlike unlike IN cord-256843-05m50voc 77 4 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 77 5 aforementioned aforementioned JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 77 6 study study NN cord-256843-05m50voc 77 7 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 77 8 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 77 9 prediction prediction NN cord-256843-05m50voc 77 10 period period NN cord-256843-05m50voc 77 11 will will MD cord-256843-05m50voc 77 12 be be VB cord-256843-05m50voc 77 13 extended extend VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 77 14 to to IN cord-256843-05m50voc 77 15 a a DT cord-256843-05m50voc 77 16 certain certain JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 77 17 number number NN cord-256843-05m50voc 77 18 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 77 19 days day NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 77 20 in in IN cord-256843-05m50voc 77 21 order order NN cord-256843-05m50voc 77 22 to to TO cord-256843-05m50voc 77 23 verify verify VB cord-256843-05m50voc 77 24 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 77 25 effectiveness effectiveness NN cord-256843-05m50voc 77 26 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 77 27 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 77 28 containment containment NN cord-256843-05m50voc 77 29 measures measure NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 77 30 in in IN cord-256843-05m50voc 77 31 Italy Italy NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 77 32 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 78 1 Since since IN cord-256843-05m50voc 78 2 no no DT cord-256843-05m50voc 78 3 European european JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 78 4 or or CC cord-256843-05m50voc 78 5 international international JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 78 6 standard standard NN cord-256843-05m50voc 78 7 for for IN cord-256843-05m50voc 78 8 data datum NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 78 9 collection collection NN cord-256843-05m50voc 78 10 has have VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 78 11 been be VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 78 12 established establish VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 78 13 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 78 14 one one CD cord-256843-05m50voc 78 15 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 78 16 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 78 17 crucial crucial JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 78 18 points point NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 78 19 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 78 20 this this DT cord-256843-05m50voc 78 21 analysis analysis NN cord-256843-05m50voc 78 22 is be VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 78 23 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 78 24 interpretation interpretation NN cord-256843-05m50voc 78 25 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 78 26 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 78 27 information information NN cord-256843-05m50voc 78 28 available available JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 78 29 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 79 1 On on IN cord-256843-05m50voc 79 2 February February NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 79 3 27 27 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 79 4 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 79 5 in in IN cord-256843-05m50voc 79 6 Italy Italy NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 79 7 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 79 8 a a DT cord-256843-05m50voc 79 9 real real JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 79 10 " " `` cord-256843-05m50voc 79 11 communicative communicative JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 79 12 turnaround turnaround NN cord-256843-05m50voc 79 13 " " '' cord-256843-05m50voc 79 14 was be VBD cord-256843-05m50voc 79 15 announced announce VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 79 16 so so IN cord-256843-05m50voc 79 17 that that IN cord-256843-05m50voc 79 18 only only RB cord-256843-05m50voc 79 19 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 79 20 most most RBS cord-256843-05m50voc 79 21 important important JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 79 22 symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 79 23 cases case NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 79 24 would would MD cord-256843-05m50voc 79 25 be be VB cord-256843-05m50voc 79 26 publicly publicly RB cord-256843-05m50voc 79 27 counted count VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 79 28 from from IN cord-256843-05m50voc 79 29 then then RB cord-256843-05m50voc 79 30 on on IN cord-256843-05m50voc 79 31 [ [ -LRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 79 32 6 6 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 79 33 ] ] -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 79 34 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 80 1 Since since IN cord-256843-05m50voc 80 2 there there EX cord-256843-05m50voc 80 3 do do VBP cord-256843-05m50voc 80 4 not not RB cord-256843-05m50voc 80 5 appear appear VB cord-256843-05m50voc 80 6 to to TO cord-256843-05m50voc 80 7 have have VB cord-256843-05m50voc 80 8 been be VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 80 9 significant significant JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 80 10 large large JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 80 11 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 80 12 scale scale NN cord-256843-05m50voc 80 13 mutations mutation NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 80 14 and and CC cord-256843-05m50voc 80 15 that that IN cord-256843-05m50voc 80 16 a a DT cord-256843-05m50voc 80 17 good good JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 80 18 amount amount NN cord-256843-05m50voc 80 19 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 80 20 data data NN cord-256843-05m50voc 80 21 is be VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 80 22 now now RB cord-256843-05m50voc 80 23 available available JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 80 24 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 80 25 we -PRON- PRP cord-256843-05m50voc 80 26 expect expect VBP cord-256843-05m50voc 80 27 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 80 28 WHO WHO NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 80 29 mortality mortality NN cord-256843-05m50voc 80 30 data datum NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 80 31 to to TO cord-256843-05m50voc 80 32 be be VB cord-256843-05m50voc 80 33 valid valid JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 80 34 in in IN cord-256843-05m50voc 80 35 Italy Italy NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 80 36 as as RB cord-256843-05m50voc 80 37 well well RB cord-256843-05m50voc 80 38 [ [ -LRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 80 39 13 13 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 80 40 ] ] -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 81 1 [ [ -LRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 81 2 Table table NN cord-256843-05m50voc 81 3 1 1 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 81 4 ] ] -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 81 5 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 82 1 The the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 82 2 more more RBR cord-256843-05m50voc 82 3 recent recent JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 82 4 study study NN cord-256843-05m50voc 82 5 about about IN cord-256843-05m50voc 82 6 Sars Sars NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 82 7 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 82 8 Cov-2 Cov-2 NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 82 9 mortality mortality NN cord-256843-05m50voc 82 10 on on IN cord-256843-05m50voc 82 11 symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 82 12 and and CC cord-256843-05m50voc 82 13 asymptomatic asymptomatic JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 82 14 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 82 15 patients patient NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 82 16 in in IN cord-256843-05m50voc 82 17 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 82 18 Hubei Hubei NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 82 19 region region NN cord-256843-05m50voc 82 20 shows show VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 82 21 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 82 22 following follow VBG cord-256843-05m50voc 82 23 Sars Sars NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 82 24 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 82 25 Cov-2 Cov-2 NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 82 26 mortality mortality NN cord-256843-05m50voc 82 27 per per IN cord-256843-05m50voc 82 28 age age NN cord-256843-05m50voc 82 29 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 82 30 groups group NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 82 31 [ [ -LRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 82 32 3 3 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 82 33 ] ] -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 83 1 [ [ -LRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 83 2 Table table NN cord-256843-05m50voc 83 3 2 2 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 83 4 ] ] -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 83 5 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 83 6 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 84 1 CC CC NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 84 2 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 84 3 BY BY NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 84 4 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 84 5 NC NC NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 85 1 4.0 4.0 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 85 2 International international JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 85 3 license license NN cord-256843-05m50voc 86 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-256843-05m50voc 86 2 is be VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 86 3 made make VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 86 4 available available JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 86 5 under under IN cord-256843-05m50voc 86 6 a a DT cord-256843-05m50voc 86 7 author author NN cord-256843-05m50voc 86 8 / / SYM cord-256843-05m50voc 86 9 funder funder NN cord-256843-05m50voc 86 10 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 86 11 who who WP cord-256843-05m50voc 86 12 has have VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 86 13 granted grant VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 86 14 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 86 15 a a DT cord-256843-05m50voc 86 16 license license NN cord-256843-05m50voc 86 17 to to TO cord-256843-05m50voc 86 18 display display VB cord-256843-05m50voc 86 19 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 86 20 preprint preprint NN cord-256843-05m50voc 86 21 in in IN cord-256843-05m50voc 86 22 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-256843-05m50voc 86 23 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 87 1 is be VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 87 2 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 87 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 87 4 which which WDT cord-256843-05m50voc 87 5 was be VBD cord-256843-05m50voc 87 6 not not RB cord-256843-05m50voc 87 7 peer peer NN cord-256843-05m50voc 87 8 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 87 9 reviewed review VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 87 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 88 1 The the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 88 2 copyright copyright NN cord-256843-05m50voc 88 3 holder holder NN cord-256843-05m50voc 88 4 for for IN cord-256843-05m50voc 88 5 this this DT cord-256843-05m50voc 88 6 preprint preprint NN cord-256843-05m50voc 88 7 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 89 1 https://doi.org https://doi.org NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 89 2 /10.1101 /10.1101 NFP cord-256843-05m50voc 89 3 /10 /10 NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 89 4 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 90 1 /2020 /2020 . cord-256843-05m50voc 91 1 Since since IN cord-256843-05m50voc 91 2 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 91 3 Italian italian JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 91 4 population population NN cord-256843-05m50voc 91 5 is be VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 91 6 distributed distribute VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 91 7 according accord VBG cord-256843-05m50voc 91 8 to to IN cord-256843-05m50voc 91 9 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 91 10 following follow VBG cord-256843-05m50voc 91 11 age age NN cord-256843-05m50voc 91 12 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 91 13 percentages percentage NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 91 14 [ [ -LRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 91 15 15 15 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 91 16 ] ] -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 91 17 [ [ -LRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 91 18 3 3 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 91 19 ] ] -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 91 20 [ [ -LRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 91 21 Table table NN cord-256843-05m50voc 91 22 3 3 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 91 23 ] ] -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 92 1 Σ Σ NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 92 2 i i NN cord-256843-05m50voc 92 3 P p NN cord-256843-05m50voc 92 4 i i NN cord-256843-05m50voc 92 5 · · NFP cord-256843-05m50voc 92 6 DR DR NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 92 7 i i NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 92 8 / / SYM cord-256843-05m50voc 92 9 100 100 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 92 10 = = SYM cord-256843-05m50voc 92 11 3.2 3.2 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 92 12 % % NN cord-256843-05m50voc 93 1 For for IN cord-256843-05m50voc 93 2 this this DT cord-256843-05m50voc 93 3 reason reason NN cord-256843-05m50voc 93 4 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 93 5 it -PRON- PRP cord-256843-05m50voc 93 6 makes make VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 93 7 sense sense NN cord-256843-05m50voc 93 8 to to TO cord-256843-05m50voc 93 9 conclude conclude VB cord-256843-05m50voc 93 10 that that IN cord-256843-05m50voc 93 11 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 93 12 Italian italian JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 93 13 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 93 14 death death NN cord-256843-05m50voc 93 15 rate rate NN cord-256843-05m50voc 93 16 is be VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 93 17 exaggeratedly exaggeratedly RB cord-256843-05m50voc 93 18 overestimated overestimated JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 93 19 if if IN cord-256843-05m50voc 93 20 we -PRON- PRP cord-256843-05m50voc 93 21 rely rely VBP cord-256843-05m50voc 93 22 on on IN cord-256843-05m50voc 93 23 Ministry Ministry NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 93 24 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 93 25 Health Health NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 93 26 data datum NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 93 27 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 94 1 On on IN cord-256843-05m50voc 94 2 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 94 3 other other JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 94 4 side side NN cord-256843-05m50voc 94 5 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 94 6 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 94 7 true true JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 94 8 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 94 9 infect infect JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 94 10 number number NN cord-256843-05m50voc 94 11 ( ( -LRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 94 12 as as IN cord-256843-05m50voc 94 13 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 94 14 aforementioned aforementioned JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 94 15 " " `` cord-256843-05m50voc 94 16 communicative communicative JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 94 17 turn turn NN cord-256843-05m50voc 94 18 " " '' cord-256843-05m50voc 94 19 announced announce VBD cord-256843-05m50voc 94 20 ) ) -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 94 21 must must MD cord-256843-05m50voc 94 22 necessarily necessarily RB cord-256843-05m50voc 94 23 be be VB cord-256843-05m50voc 94 24 higher high JJR cord-256843-05m50voc 94 25 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 95 1 Trying try VBG cord-256843-05m50voc 95 2 to to TO cord-256843-05m50voc 95 3 respect respect VB cord-256843-05m50voc 95 4 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 95 5 percentage percentage NN cord-256843-05m50voc 95 6 just just RB cord-256843-05m50voc 95 7 calculated calculate VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 95 8 we -PRON- PRP cord-256843-05m50voc 95 9 obtain obtain VBP cord-256843-05m50voc 95 10 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 95 11 following follow VBG cord-256843-05m50voc 95 12 table table NN cord-256843-05m50voc 95 13 4 4 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 95 14 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 96 1 Citing cite VBG cord-256843-05m50voc 96 2 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 96 3 adapted adapt VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 96 4 system system NN cord-256843-05m50voc 96 5 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 96 6 non non JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 96 7 - - JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 96 8 linear linear JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 96 9 differential differential JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 96 10 equations equation NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 96 11 and and CC cord-256843-05m50voc 96 12 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-256843-05m50voc 96 13 discretization discretization NN cord-256843-05m50voc 96 14 [ [ -LRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 96 15 8 8 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 96 16 ] ] -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 96 17 _SP cord-256843-05m50voc 96 18 Legend Legend NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 96 19 : : : cord-256843-05m50voc 96 20 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 97 1 CC CC NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 97 2 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 97 3 BY BY NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 97 4 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 97 5 NC NC NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 97 6 4.0 4.0 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 97 7 International international JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 97 8 license license NN cord-256843-05m50voc 98 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-256843-05m50voc 98 2 is be VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 98 3 made make VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 98 4 available available JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 98 5 under under IN cord-256843-05m50voc 98 6 a a DT cord-256843-05m50voc 98 7 author author NN cord-256843-05m50voc 98 8 / / SYM cord-256843-05m50voc 98 9 funder funder NN cord-256843-05m50voc 98 10 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 98 11 who who WP cord-256843-05m50voc 98 12 has have VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 98 13 granted grant VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 98 14 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 98 15 a a DT cord-256843-05m50voc 98 16 license license NN cord-256843-05m50voc 98 17 to to TO cord-256843-05m50voc 98 18 display display VB cord-256843-05m50voc 98 19 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 98 20 preprint preprint NN cord-256843-05m50voc 98 21 in in IN cord-256843-05m50voc 98 22 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-256843-05m50voc 98 23 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 99 1 is be VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 99 2 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 99 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 99 4 which which WDT cord-256843-05m50voc 99 5 was be VBD cord-256843-05m50voc 99 6 not not RB cord-256843-05m50voc 99 7 peer peer NN cord-256843-05m50voc 99 8 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 99 9 reviewed review VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 99 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 100 1 The the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 100 2 copyright copyright NN cord-256843-05m50voc 100 3 holder holder NN cord-256843-05m50voc 100 4 for for IN cord-256843-05m50voc 100 5 this this DT cord-256843-05m50voc 100 6 preprint preprint NN cord-256843-05m50voc 100 7 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 101 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.19.20038968 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.19.20038968 NN cord-256843-05m50voc 101 2 doi doi NN cord-256843-05m50voc 101 3 : : : cord-256843-05m50voc 102 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 102 2 preprint preprint NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 102 3 · · NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 102 4 1 1 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 102 5 / / SYM cord-256843-05m50voc 102 6 γ γ NN cord-256843-05m50voc 102 7 is be VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 102 8 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 102 9 asymptomatic asymptomatic JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 102 10 incubation incubation NN cord-256843-05m50voc 102 11 time time NN cord-256843-05m50voc 103 1 ; ; : cord-256843-05m50voc 103 2 · · NFP cord-256843-05m50voc 103 3 1 1 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 103 4 / / SYM cord-256843-05m50voc 103 5 σ σ NN cord-256843-05m50voc 103 6 is be VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 103 7 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 103 8 recovery recovery NN cord-256843-05m50voc 103 9 time time NN cord-256843-05m50voc 103 10 ; ; : cord-256843-05m50voc 103 11 · · NFP cord-256843-05m50voc 103 12 R0 R0 NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 103 13 is be VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 103 14 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 103 15 basic basic JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 103 16 reproduction reproduction NN cord-256843-05m50voc 103 17 number number NN cord-256843-05m50voc 103 18 ; ; : cord-256843-05m50voc 103 19 · · NFP cord-256843-05m50voc 103 20 S S NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 103 21 is be VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 103 22 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 103 23 number number NN cord-256843-05m50voc 103 24 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 103 25 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 103 26 people people NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 103 27 ; ; : cord-256843-05m50voc 103 28 · · NFP cord-256843-05m50voc 103 29 E E NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 103 30 is be VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 103 31 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 103 32 number number NN cord-256843-05m50voc 103 33 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 103 34 active active JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 103 35 exposed expose VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 103 36 people people NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 103 37 ( ( -LRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 103 38 people people NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 103 39 in in IN cord-256843-05m50voc 103 40 incubation incubation NN cord-256843-05m50voc 103 41 ) ) -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 103 42 ; ; : cord-256843-05m50voc 103 43 · · NFP cord-256843-05m50voc 103 44 I -PRON- PRP cord-256843-05m50voc 103 45 is be VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 103 46 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 103 47 number number NN cord-256843-05m50voc 103 48 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 103 49 active active JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 103 50 infected infected JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 103 51 people people NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 103 52 ; ; : cord-256843-05m50voc 103 53 · · NFP cord-256843-05m50voc 103 54 R r NN cord-256843-05m50voc 103 55 is be VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 103 56 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 103 57 number number NN cord-256843-05m50voc 103 58 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 103 59 recovered recover VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 103 60 people people NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 103 61 ( ( -LRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 103 62 no no RB cord-256843-05m50voc 103 63 longer long RBR cord-256843-05m50voc 103 64 infectable infectable JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 103 65 ) ) -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 103 66 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 103 67 · · NFP cord-256843-05m50voc 104 1 X X NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 104 2 n n NN cord-256843-05m50voc 104 3 is be VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 104 4 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 104 5 number number NN cord-256843-05m50voc 104 6 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 104 7 day day NN cord-256843-05m50voc 104 8 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 104 9 n n NN cord-256843-05m50voc 104 10 " " `` cord-256843-05m50voc 104 11 X x NN cord-256843-05m50voc 104 12 - - NN cord-256843-05m50voc 104 13 category category NN cord-256843-05m50voc 104 14 " " '' cord-256843-05m50voc 104 15 people people NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 104 16 ; ; : cord-256843-05m50voc 104 17 · · NFP cord-256843-05m50voc 104 18 X x NN cord-256843-05m50voc 104 19 t t NN cord-256843-05m50voc 104 20 is be VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 104 21 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 104 22 number number NN cord-256843-05m50voc 104 23 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 104 24 table table NN cord-256843-05m50voc 104 25 4 4 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 104 26 " " `` cord-256843-05m50voc 104 27 X x NN cord-256843-05m50voc 104 28 - - NN cord-256843-05m50voc 104 29 category category NN cord-256843-05m50voc 104 30 " " '' cord-256843-05m50voc 104 31 people people NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 104 32 ; ; : cord-256843-05m50voc 104 33 Significant significant JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 104 34 Discussion discussion NN cord-256843-05m50voc 104 35 : : : cord-256843-05m50voc 104 36 in in IN cord-256843-05m50voc 104 37 order order NN cord-256843-05m50voc 104 38 for for IN cord-256843-05m50voc 104 39 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 104 40 supposed suppose VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 104 41 data datum NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 104 42 to to TO cord-256843-05m50voc 104 43 be be VB cord-256843-05m50voc 104 44 representative representative JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 104 45 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 104 46 reality reality NN cord-256843-05m50voc 104 47 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 104 48 we -PRON- PRP cord-256843-05m50voc 104 49 should should MD cord-256843-05m50voc 104 50 admit admit VB cord-256843-05m50voc 104 51 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 104 52 existence existence NN cord-256843-05m50voc 104 53 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 104 54 many many JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 104 55 more more JJR cord-256843-05m50voc 104 56 cases case NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 104 57 than than IN cord-256843-05m50voc 104 58 expected expect VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 104 59 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 105 1 All all PDT cord-256843-05m50voc 105 2 this this DT cord-256843-05m50voc 105 3 is be VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 105 4 consistent consistent JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 105 5 both both CC cord-256843-05m50voc 105 6 with with IN cord-256843-05m50voc 105 7 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 105 8 idea idea NN cord-256843-05m50voc 105 9 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 105 10 infection infection NN cord-256843-05m50voc 105 11 had have VBD cord-256843-05m50voc 105 12 been be VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 105 13 present present JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 105 14 on on IN cord-256843-05m50voc 105 15 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 105 16 territory territory NN cord-256843-05m50voc 105 17 for for IN cord-256843-05m50voc 105 18 some some DT cord-256843-05m50voc 105 19 time time NN cord-256843-05m50voc 105 20 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 105 21 in in IN cord-256843-05m50voc 105 22 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 105 23 form form NN cord-256843-05m50voc 105 24 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 105 25 a a DT cord-256843-05m50voc 105 26 less less RBR cord-256843-05m50voc 105 27 aggressive aggressive JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 105 28 strain strain NN cord-256843-05m50voc 105 29 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 105 30 than than IN cord-256843-05m50voc 105 31 with with IN cord-256843-05m50voc 105 32 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 105 33 time time NN cord-256843-05m50voc 105 34 course course NN cord-256843-05m50voc 105 35 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 105 36 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 105 37 disease disease NN cord-256843-05m50voc 105 38 [ [ -LRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 105 39 1 1 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 105 40 ] ] -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 105 41 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 106 1 The the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 106 2 number number NN cord-256843-05m50voc 106 3 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 106 4 people people NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 106 5 healed heal VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 106 6 is be VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 106 7 also also RB cord-256843-05m50voc 106 8 in in IN cord-256843-05m50voc 106 9 line line NN cord-256843-05m50voc 106 10 with with IN cord-256843-05m50voc 106 11 international international JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 106 12 percentages percentage NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 106 13 [ [ -LRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 106 14 16 16 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 106 15 ] ] -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 106 16 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 107 1 Validity validity NN cord-256843-05m50voc 107 2 grade grade NN cord-256843-05m50voc 107 3 : : : cord-256843-05m50voc 107 4 plausible plausible JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 107 5 and and CC cord-256843-05m50voc 107 6 supported support VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 107 7 by by IN cord-256843-05m50voc 107 8 empirical empirical JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 107 9 evidences evidence NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 107 10 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 108 1 Warning warning NN cord-256843-05m50voc 108 2 level level NN cord-256843-05m50voc 108 3 : : : cord-256843-05m50voc 108 4 high high JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 108 5 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 109 1 Assumptions assumption NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 109 2 : : : cord-256843-05m50voc 110 1 1 1 LS cord-256843-05m50voc 110 2 / / SYM cord-256843-05m50voc 110 3 σ σ NN cord-256843-05m50voc 110 4 = = SYM cord-256843-05m50voc 110 5 3 3 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 110 6 days day NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 110 7 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 110 8 1 1 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 110 9 / / SYM cord-256843-05m50voc 110 10 γ γ NN cord-256843-05m50voc 110 11 = = SYM cord-256843-05m50voc 110 12 35 35 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 110 13 days day NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 110 14 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 110 15 R0 R0 NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 110 16 = = SYM cord-256843-05m50voc 110 17 6.05 6.05 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 110 18 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 110 19 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 111 1 CC CC NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 111 2 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 111 3 BY BY NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 111 4 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 111 5 NC NC NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 112 1 4.0 4.0 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 112 2 International international JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 112 3 license license NN cord-256843-05m50voc 113 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-256843-05m50voc 113 2 is be VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 113 3 made make VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 113 4 available available JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 113 5 under under IN cord-256843-05m50voc 113 6 a a DT cord-256843-05m50voc 113 7 author author NN cord-256843-05m50voc 113 8 / / SYM cord-256843-05m50voc 113 9 funder funder NN cord-256843-05m50voc 113 10 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 113 11 who who WP cord-256843-05m50voc 113 12 has have VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 113 13 granted grant VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 113 14 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 113 15 a a DT cord-256843-05m50voc 113 16 license license NN cord-256843-05m50voc 113 17 to to TO cord-256843-05m50voc 113 18 display display VB cord-256843-05m50voc 113 19 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 113 20 preprint preprint NN cord-256843-05m50voc 113 21 in in IN cord-256843-05m50voc 113 22 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-256843-05m50voc 113 23 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 114 1 is be VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 114 2 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 114 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 114 4 which which WDT cord-256843-05m50voc 114 5 was be VBD cord-256843-05m50voc 114 6 not not RB cord-256843-05m50voc 114 7 peer peer NN cord-256843-05m50voc 114 8 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 114 9 reviewed review VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 114 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 115 1 The the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 115 2 copyright copyright NN cord-256843-05m50voc 115 3 holder holder NN cord-256843-05m50voc 115 4 for for IN cord-256843-05m50voc 115 5 this this DT cord-256843-05m50voc 115 6 preprint preprint NN cord-256843-05m50voc 115 7 Warning warn VBG cord-256843-05m50voc 115 8 level level NN cord-256843-05m50voc 115 9 : : : cord-256843-05m50voc 115 10 high high JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 115 11 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 116 1 Since since IN cord-256843-05m50voc 116 2 test test NN cord-256843-05m50voc 116 3 3 3 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 116 4 turned turn VBD cord-256843-05m50voc 116 5 out out RP cord-256843-05m50voc 116 6 to to TO cord-256843-05m50voc 116 7 be be VB cord-256843-05m50voc 116 8 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 116 9 most most RBS cord-256843-05m50voc 116 10 likely likely JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 116 11 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 116 12 we -PRON- PRP cord-256843-05m50voc 116 13 focus focus VBP cord-256843-05m50voc 116 14 on on IN cord-256843-05m50voc 116 15 it -PRON- PRP cord-256843-05m50voc 116 16 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 117 1 Peak Peak NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 117 2 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 117 3 day day NN cord-256843-05m50voc 117 4 : : : cord-256843-05m50voc 117 5 80 80 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 117 6 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 118 1 Peak peak JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 118 2 value value NN cord-256843-05m50voc 118 3 : : : cord-256843-05m50voc 118 4 Imax Imax NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 118 5 = = SYM cord-256843-05m50voc 118 6 8.86694·10 8.86694·10 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 118 7 5 5 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 118 8 people people NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 118 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 118 10 almost almost RB cord-256843-05m50voc 118 11 9 9 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 118 12 million million CD cord-256843-05m50voc 118 13 people people NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 118 14 ) ) -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 118 15 ; ; : cord-256843-05m50voc 118 16 I -PRON- PRP cord-256843-05m50voc 118 17 < < XX cord-256843-05m50voc 118 18 10 10 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 118 19 -day -day SYM cord-256843-05m50voc 118 20 : : : cord-256843-05m50voc 118 21 333 333 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 118 22 ( ( -LRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 118 23 almost almost RB cord-256843-05m50voc 118 24 one one CD cord-256843-05m50voc 118 25 year year NN cord-256843-05m50voc 118 26 ) ) -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 118 27 ; ; : cord-256843-05m50voc 118 28 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 119 1 CC CC NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 119 2 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 119 3 BY BY NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 119 4 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 119 5 NC NC NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 119 6 4.0 4.0 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 119 7 International international JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 119 8 license license NN cord-256843-05m50voc 120 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-256843-05m50voc 120 2 is be VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 120 3 made make VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 120 4 available available JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 120 5 under under IN cord-256843-05m50voc 120 6 a a DT cord-256843-05m50voc 120 7 author author NN cord-256843-05m50voc 120 8 / / SYM cord-256843-05m50voc 120 9 funder funder NN cord-256843-05m50voc 120 10 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 120 11 who who WP cord-256843-05m50voc 120 12 has have VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 120 13 granted grant VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 120 14 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 120 15 a a DT cord-256843-05m50voc 120 16 license license NN cord-256843-05m50voc 120 17 to to TO cord-256843-05m50voc 120 18 display display VB cord-256843-05m50voc 120 19 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 120 20 preprint preprint NN cord-256843-05m50voc 120 21 in in IN cord-256843-05m50voc 120 22 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-256843-05m50voc 120 23 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 121 1 is be VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 121 2 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 121 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 121 4 which which WDT cord-256843-05m50voc 121 5 was be VBD cord-256843-05m50voc 121 6 not not RB cord-256843-05m50voc 121 7 peer peer NN cord-256843-05m50voc 121 8 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 121 9 reviewed review VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 121 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 122 1 The the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 122 2 copyright copyright NN cord-256843-05m50voc 122 3 holder holder NN cord-256843-05m50voc 122 4 for for IN cord-256843-05m50voc 122 5 this this DT cord-256843-05m50voc 122 6 preprint preprint NN cord-256843-05m50voc 122 7 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 123 1 I -PRON- PRP cord-256843-05m50voc 123 2 = = SYM cord-256843-05m50voc 123 3 0 0 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 123 4 -day -day : cord-256843-05m50voc 123 5 : : : cord-256843-05m50voc 123 6 386 386 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 123 7 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 124 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-256843-05m50voc 124 2 can can MD cord-256843-05m50voc 124 3 also also RB cord-256843-05m50voc 124 4 fit fit VB cord-256843-05m50voc 124 5 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 124 6 curve curve NN cord-256843-05m50voc 124 7 through through IN cord-256843-05m50voc 124 8 a a DT cord-256843-05m50voc 124 9 convenient convenient JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 124 10 Gaussian Gaussian NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 124 11 f(x f(x NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 124 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 124 13 = = NFP cord-256843-05m50voc 125 1 y0 y0 NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 125 2 + + CC cord-256843-05m50voc 125 3 Gauss(A Gauss(A NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 125 4 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 125 5 x0,σ x0,σ NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 125 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 126 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 126 2 x x LS cord-256843-05m50voc 126 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 126 4 function function NN cord-256843-05m50voc 126 5 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 126 6 useful useful JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 126 7 for for IN cord-256843-05m50voc 126 8 modeling model VBG cord-256843-05m50voc 126 9 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 126 10 initial initial JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 126 11 trend trend NN cord-256843-05m50voc 126 12 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 126 13 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 126 14 virus virus NN cord-256843-05m50voc 126 15 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 126 16 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 127 1 CC CC NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 127 2 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 127 3 BY BY NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 127 4 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 127 5 NC NC NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 128 1 4.0 4.0 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 128 2 International international JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 128 3 license license NN cord-256843-05m50voc 129 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-256843-05m50voc 129 2 is be VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 129 3 made make VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 129 4 available available JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 129 5 under under IN cord-256843-05m50voc 129 6 a a DT cord-256843-05m50voc 129 7 author author NN cord-256843-05m50voc 129 8 / / SYM cord-256843-05m50voc 129 9 funder funder NN cord-256843-05m50voc 129 10 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 129 11 who who WP cord-256843-05m50voc 129 12 has have VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 129 13 granted grant VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 129 14 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 129 15 a a DT cord-256843-05m50voc 129 16 license license NN cord-256843-05m50voc 129 17 to to TO cord-256843-05m50voc 129 18 display display VB cord-256843-05m50voc 129 19 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 129 20 preprint preprint NN cord-256843-05m50voc 129 21 in in IN cord-256843-05m50voc 129 22 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-256843-05m50voc 129 23 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 130 1 is be VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 130 2 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 130 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 130 4 which which WDT cord-256843-05m50voc 130 5 was be VBD cord-256843-05m50voc 130 6 not not RB cord-256843-05m50voc 130 7 peer peer NN cord-256843-05m50voc 130 8 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 130 9 reviewed review VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 130 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 131 1 The the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 131 2 copyright copyright NN cord-256843-05m50voc 131 3 holder holder NN cord-256843-05m50voc 131 4 for for IN cord-256843-05m50voc 131 5 this this DT cord-256843-05m50voc 131 6 preprint preprint NN cord-256843-05m50voc 131 7 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 132 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.19.20038968 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.19.20038968 NN cord-256843-05m50voc 132 2 doi doi NN cord-256843-05m50voc 132 3 : : : cord-256843-05m50voc 133 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 133 2 preprint preprint NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 134 1 The the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 134 2 model model NN cord-256843-05m50voc 134 3 is be VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 134 4 approximate approximate JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 134 5 as as IN cord-256843-05m50voc 134 6 a a DT cord-256843-05m50voc 134 7 direct direct JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 134 8 consequence consequence NN cord-256843-05m50voc 134 9 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 134 10 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 134 11 uncertainty uncertainty NN cord-256843-05m50voc 134 12 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 134 13 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 134 14 data datum NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 134 15 it -PRON- PRP cord-256843-05m50voc 134 16 was be VBD cord-256843-05m50voc 134 17 supposed suppose VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 134 18 to to TO cord-256843-05m50voc 134 19 fit fit VB cord-256843-05m50voc 135 1 but but CC cord-256843-05m50voc 135 2 it -PRON- PRP cord-256843-05m50voc 135 3 can can MD cord-256843-05m50voc 135 4 act act VB cord-256843-05m50voc 135 5 as as IN cord-256843-05m50voc 135 6 a a DT cord-256843-05m50voc 135 7 valid valid JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 135 8 comparison comparison NN cord-256843-05m50voc 135 9 for for IN cord-256843-05m50voc 135 10 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 135 11 identification identification NN cord-256843-05m50voc 135 12 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 135 13 any any DT cord-256843-05m50voc 135 14 Sars Sars NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 135 15 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 135 16 Cov-2 Cov-2 NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 135 17 genetic genetic JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 135 18 mutations mutation NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 135 19 as as RB cord-256843-05m50voc 135 20 well well RB cord-256843-05m50voc 135 21 as as IN cord-256843-05m50voc 135 22 for for IN cord-256843-05m50voc 135 23 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 135 24 evaluation evaluation NN cord-256843-05m50voc 135 25 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 135 26 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 135 27 containment containment NN cord-256843-05m50voc 135 28 measures measure NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 135 29 effectiveness effectiveness NN cord-256843-05m50voc 135 30 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 136 1 Observed observe VBD cord-256843-05m50voc 136 2 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 136 3 comparison comparison NN cord-256843-05m50voc 136 4 between between IN cord-256843-05m50voc 136 5 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 136 6 predictions prediction NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 136 7 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 136 8 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 136 9 S.E.I.R. S.E.I.R. NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 136 10 and and CC cord-256843-05m50voc 136 11 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 136 12 actual actual JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 136 13 trends trend NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 136 14 highlighted highlight VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 136 15 above above RB cord-256843-05m50voc 136 16 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 136 17 as as RB cord-256843-05m50voc 136 18 well well RB cord-256843-05m50voc 136 19 as as IN cord-256843-05m50voc 136 20 between between IN cord-256843-05m50voc 136 21 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 136 22 trends trend NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 136 23 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 136 24 Lombardy Lombardy NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 136 25 and and CC cord-256843-05m50voc 136 26 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 136 27 other other JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 136 28 Italian italian JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 136 29 regions region NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 136 30 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 136 31 there there EX cord-256843-05m50voc 136 32 are be VBP cord-256843-05m50voc 136 33 valid valid JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 136 34 reasons reason NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 136 35 to to TO cord-256843-05m50voc 136 36 assert assert VB cord-256843-05m50voc 136 37 that that IN cord-256843-05m50voc 136 38 in in IN cord-256843-05m50voc 136 39 Lombardy Lombardy NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 136 40 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 136 41 in in IN cord-256843-05m50voc 136 42 particular particular JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 136 43 in in IN cord-256843-05m50voc 136 44 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 136 45 cities city NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 136 46 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 136 47 Brescia Brescia NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 136 48 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 136 49 Bergamo Bergamo NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 136 50 and and CC cord-256843-05m50voc 136 51 Milan Milan NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 136 52 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 136 53 a a DT cord-256843-05m50voc 136 54 very very RB cord-256843-05m50voc 136 55 significant significant JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 136 56 evolutionary evolutionary JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 136 57 mutation mutation NN cord-256843-05m50voc 136 58 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 136 59 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 136 60 virus virus NN cord-256843-05m50voc 136 61 may may MD cord-256843-05m50voc 136 62 be be VB cord-256843-05m50voc 136 63 underway underway JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 136 64 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 136 65 which which WDT cord-256843-05m50voc 136 66 would would MD cord-256843-05m50voc 136 67 require require VB cord-256843-05m50voc 136 68 immediate immediate JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 136 69 containment containment NN cord-256843-05m50voc 136 70 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 136 71 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 137 1 CC CC NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 137 2 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 137 3 BY BY NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 137 4 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 137 5 NC NC NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 138 1 4.0 4.0 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 138 2 International international JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 138 3 license license NN cord-256843-05m50voc 139 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-256843-05m50voc 139 2 is be VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 139 3 made make VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 139 4 available available JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 139 5 under under IN cord-256843-05m50voc 139 6 a a DT cord-256843-05m50voc 139 7 author author NN cord-256843-05m50voc 139 8 / / SYM cord-256843-05m50voc 139 9 funder funder NN cord-256843-05m50voc 139 10 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 139 11 who who WP cord-256843-05m50voc 139 12 has have VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 139 13 granted grant VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 139 14 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 139 15 a a DT cord-256843-05m50voc 139 16 license license NN cord-256843-05m50voc 139 17 to to TO cord-256843-05m50voc 139 18 display display VB cord-256843-05m50voc 139 19 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 139 20 preprint preprint NN cord-256843-05m50voc 139 21 in in IN cord-256843-05m50voc 139 22 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-256843-05m50voc 139 23 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 140 1 is be VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 140 2 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 140 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 140 4 which which WDT cord-256843-05m50voc 140 5 was be VBD cord-256843-05m50voc 140 6 not not RB cord-256843-05m50voc 140 7 peer peer NN cord-256843-05m50voc 140 8 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 140 9 reviewed review VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 140 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 141 1 The the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 141 2 copyright copyright NN cord-256843-05m50voc 141 3 holder holder NN cord-256843-05m50voc 141 4 for for IN cord-256843-05m50voc 141 5 this this DT cord-256843-05m50voc 141 6 preprint preprint NN cord-256843-05m50voc 141 7 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 142 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.19.20038968 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.19.20038968 NN cord-256843-05m50voc 142 2 doi doi NN cord-256843-05m50voc 142 3 : : : cord-256843-05m50voc 143 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 143 2 preprint preprint NN cord-256843-05m50voc 143 3 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 144 1 CC CC NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 144 2 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 144 3 BY BY NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 144 4 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 144 5 NC NC NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 145 1 4.0 4.0 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 145 2 International international JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 145 3 license license NN cord-256843-05m50voc 146 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-256843-05m50voc 146 2 is be VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 146 3 made make VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 146 4 available available JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 146 5 under under IN cord-256843-05m50voc 146 6 a a DT cord-256843-05m50voc 146 7 author author NN cord-256843-05m50voc 146 8 / / SYM cord-256843-05m50voc 146 9 funder funder NN cord-256843-05m50voc 146 10 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 146 11 who who WP cord-256843-05m50voc 146 12 has have VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 146 13 granted grant VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 146 14 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 146 15 a a DT cord-256843-05m50voc 146 16 license license NN cord-256843-05m50voc 146 17 to to TO cord-256843-05m50voc 146 18 display display VB cord-256843-05m50voc 146 19 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 146 20 preprint preprint NN cord-256843-05m50voc 146 21 in in IN cord-256843-05m50voc 146 22 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-256843-05m50voc 146 23 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 147 1 is be VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 147 2 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 147 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 147 4 which which WDT cord-256843-05m50voc 147 5 was be VBD cord-256843-05m50voc 147 6 not not RB cord-256843-05m50voc 147 7 peer peer NN cord-256843-05m50voc 147 8 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 147 9 reviewed review VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 147 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 148 1 The the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 148 2 copyright copyright NN cord-256843-05m50voc 148 3 holder holder NN cord-256843-05m50voc 148 4 for for IN cord-256843-05m50voc 148 5 this this DT cord-256843-05m50voc 148 6 preprint preprint NN cord-256843-05m50voc 148 7 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 149 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.19.20038968 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.19.20038968 NN cord-256843-05m50voc 149 2 doi doi NN cord-256843-05m50voc 149 3 : : : cord-256843-05m50voc 150 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 150 2 preprint preprint NN cord-256843-05m50voc 150 3 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 151 1 CC CC NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 151 2 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 151 3 BY BY NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 151 4 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 151 5 NC NC NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 152 1 4.0 4.0 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 152 2 International international JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 152 3 license license NN cord-256843-05m50voc 153 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-256843-05m50voc 153 2 is be VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 153 3 made make VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 153 4 available available JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 153 5 under under IN cord-256843-05m50voc 153 6 a a DT cord-256843-05m50voc 153 7 author author NN cord-256843-05m50voc 153 8 / / SYM cord-256843-05m50voc 153 9 funder funder NN cord-256843-05m50voc 153 10 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 153 11 who who WP cord-256843-05m50voc 153 12 has have VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 153 13 granted grant VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 153 14 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 153 15 a a DT cord-256843-05m50voc 153 16 license license NN cord-256843-05m50voc 153 17 to to TO cord-256843-05m50voc 153 18 display display VB cord-256843-05m50voc 153 19 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 153 20 preprint preprint NN cord-256843-05m50voc 153 21 in in IN cord-256843-05m50voc 153 22 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-256843-05m50voc 153 23 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 154 1 is be VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 154 2 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 154 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 154 4 which which WDT cord-256843-05m50voc 154 5 was be VBD cord-256843-05m50voc 154 6 not not RB cord-256843-05m50voc 154 7 peer peer NN cord-256843-05m50voc 154 8 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 154 9 reviewed review VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 154 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 155 1 The the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 155 2 copyright copyright NN cord-256843-05m50voc 155 3 holder holder NN cord-256843-05m50voc 155 4 for for IN cord-256843-05m50voc 155 5 this this DT cord-256843-05m50voc 155 6 preprint preprint NN cord-256843-05m50voc 155 7 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 156 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.19.20038968 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.19.20038968 NN cord-256843-05m50voc 156 2 doi doi NN cord-256843-05m50voc 156 3 : : : cord-256843-05m50voc 157 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 157 2 preprint preprint NN cord-256843-05m50voc 157 3 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 158 1 CC CC NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 158 2 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 158 3 BY BY NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 158 4 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 158 5 NC NC NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 159 1 4.0 4.0 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 159 2 International international JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 159 3 license license NN cord-256843-05m50voc 160 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-256843-05m50voc 160 2 is be VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 160 3 made make VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 160 4 available available JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 160 5 under under IN cord-256843-05m50voc 160 6 a a DT cord-256843-05m50voc 160 7 author author NN cord-256843-05m50voc 160 8 / / SYM cord-256843-05m50voc 160 9 funder funder NN cord-256843-05m50voc 160 10 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 160 11 who who WP cord-256843-05m50voc 160 12 has have VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 160 13 granted grant VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 160 14 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 160 15 a a DT cord-256843-05m50voc 160 16 license license NN cord-256843-05m50voc 160 17 to to TO cord-256843-05m50voc 160 18 display display VB cord-256843-05m50voc 160 19 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 160 20 preprint preprint NN cord-256843-05m50voc 160 21 in in IN cord-256843-05m50voc 160 22 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-256843-05m50voc 160 23 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 161 1 is be VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 161 2 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 161 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 161 4 which which WDT cord-256843-05m50voc 161 5 was be VBD cord-256843-05m50voc 161 6 not not RB cord-256843-05m50voc 161 7 peer peer NN cord-256843-05m50voc 161 8 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 161 9 reviewed review VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 161 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 162 1 The the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 162 2 copyright copyright NN cord-256843-05m50voc 162 3 holder holder NN cord-256843-05m50voc 162 4 for for IN cord-256843-05m50voc 162 5 this this DT cord-256843-05m50voc 162 6 preprint preprint NN cord-256843-05m50voc 162 7 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 163 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.19.20038968 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.19.20038968 NN cord-256843-05m50voc 163 2 doi doi NN cord-256843-05m50voc 163 3 : : : cord-256843-05m50voc 164 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 164 2 preprint preprint NN cord-256843-05m50voc 164 3 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 165 1 CC CC NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 165 2 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 165 3 BY BY NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 165 4 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 165 5 NC NC NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 166 1 4.0 4.0 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 166 2 International international JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 166 3 license license NN cord-256843-05m50voc 167 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-256843-05m50voc 167 2 is be VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 167 3 made make VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 167 4 available available JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 167 5 under under IN cord-256843-05m50voc 167 6 a a DT cord-256843-05m50voc 167 7 author author NN cord-256843-05m50voc 167 8 / / SYM cord-256843-05m50voc 167 9 funder funder NN cord-256843-05m50voc 167 10 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 167 11 who who WP cord-256843-05m50voc 167 12 has have VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 167 13 granted grant VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 167 14 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 167 15 a a DT cord-256843-05m50voc 167 16 license license NN cord-256843-05m50voc 167 17 to to TO cord-256843-05m50voc 167 18 display display VB cord-256843-05m50voc 167 19 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 167 20 preprint preprint NN cord-256843-05m50voc 167 21 in in IN cord-256843-05m50voc 167 22 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-256843-05m50voc 167 23 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 168 1 is be VBZ cord-256843-05m50voc 168 2 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 168 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 168 4 which which WDT cord-256843-05m50voc 168 5 was be VBD cord-256843-05m50voc 168 6 not not RB cord-256843-05m50voc 168 7 peer peer NN cord-256843-05m50voc 168 8 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 168 9 reviewed review VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 168 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-256843-05m50voc 169 1 The the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 169 2 copyright copyright NN cord-256843-05m50voc 169 3 holder holder NN cord-256843-05m50voc 169 4 for for IN cord-256843-05m50voc 169 5 this this DT cord-256843-05m50voc 169 6 preprint preprint NN cord-256843-05m50voc 169 7 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 170 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.19.20038968 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.19.20038968 NN cord-256843-05m50voc 170 2 doi doi NN cord-256843-05m50voc 170 3 : : : cord-256843-05m50voc 171 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 171 2 preprint preprint NN cord-256843-05m50voc 171 3 Early Early NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 171 4 Phylogenetic Phylogenetic NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 171 5 Estimate Estimate NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 171 6 Of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 171 7 The the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 171 8 Effective effective JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 171 9 Reproduction Reproduction NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 171 10 Number Number NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 171 11 Of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 171 12 2019-nCoV 2019-ncov CD cord-256843-05m50voc 171 13 Adjusted adjust VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 171 14 age age NN cord-256843-05m50voc 171 15 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 171 16 specific specific JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 171 17 casefatality casefatality NN cord-256843-05m50voc 171 18 ratio ratio NN cord-256843-05m50voc 171 19 during during IN cord-256843-05m50voc 171 20 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 171 21 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 171 22 epidemic epidemic NN cord-256843-05m50voc 171 23 in in IN cord-256843-05m50voc 171 24 Hubei Hubei NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 171 25 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 171 26 China China NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 171 27 Transmission Transmission NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 171 28 potential potential NN cord-256843-05m50voc 171 29 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 171 30 COVID-19 covid-19 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 171 31 in in IN cord-256843-05m50voc 171 32 Iran Iran NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 172 1 Positive positive JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 172 2 RT RT NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 172 3 - - HYPH cord-256843-05m50voc 172 4 PCR PCR NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 172 5 Test test NN cord-256843-05m50voc 172 6 Results result NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 172 7 in in IN cord-256843-05m50voc 172 8 Patients patient NNS cord-256843-05m50voc 172 9 Recovered recover VBN cord-256843-05m50voc 172 10 From from IN cord-256843-05m50voc 172 11 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 172 12 La La NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 172 13 giravolta giravolta NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 172 14 comunicativa comunicativa NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 172 15 sul sul NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 172 16 coronavirus coronavirus NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 172 17 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 172 18 menotamponi menotamponi NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 172 19 e e NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 172 20 contare contare NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 172 21 solo solo NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 173 1 i i NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 173 2 casi casi NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 173 3 gravi gravi NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 173 4 f. f. NN cord-256843-05m50voc 173 5 2.1.2 2.1.2 NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 173 6 . . . cord-256843-05m50voc 174 1 Mensana Mensana NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 174 2 srls srls NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 174 3 research research NN cord-256843-05m50voc 174 4 and and CC cord-256843-05m50voc 174 5 disclosure disclosure NN cord-256843-05m50voc 174 6 division division NN cord-256843-05m50voc 174 7 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 174 8 Via Via NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 174 9 Moro Moro NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 174 10 Aldo Aldo NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 174 11 5 5 CD cord-256843-05m50voc 174 12 -25124 -25124 . cord-256843-05m50voc 175 1 WHO who WP cord-256843-05m50voc 175 2 database database VBP cord-256843-05m50voc 175 3 Hongbing Hongbing NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 175 4 Song Song NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 175 5 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 175 6 Daniel Daniel NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 175 7 Dajun Dajun NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 175 8 Zeng Zeng NNP cord-256843-05m50voc 175 9 , , , cord-256843-05m50voc 175 10 Estimating estimate VBG cord-256843-05m50voc 175 11 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 175 12 effective effective JJ cord-256843-05m50voc 175 13 reproduction reproduction NN cord-256843-05m50voc 175 14 number number NN cord-256843-05m50voc 175 15 of of IN cord-256843-05m50voc 175 16 the the DT cord-256843-05m50voc 175 17 2019-nCoV 2019-ncov CD cord-256843-05m50voc 175 18 in in IN cord-256843-05m50voc 175 19 China China NNP