id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-217139-d9q7zkog	Kumar, Sumit	Future of COVID-19 in Italy: A mathematical perspective	2020-04-18		.txt	text/plain	3477	207	62	Moreover, to make our predictions more realistic, we have trained and validated our model with COVID-19 data of some the highly affected regions of Italy. Our proposed model aims to predict the future scenario of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy by analyzing its present state in the country. Figure 5 shows various scenarios of the epidemic in Italy in case disease transmission rate would have been timely controlled. From figure 5 , we see that as disease transmission rate, β is reduced from 0.7 to 0.4, it not only decrease the active number of infections from 45000 to 9000, but also the overall lifespan of pandemic reduced from July 31 to April 20, 2020. All the remaining parameter values are considered to be same as given in Table 1 In figure 6 , we study the case of Lambardia region of Italy. Sub-figures (9a) and (10a) exhibit the authenticity of our proposed model with the officially reported COVID-19 cases in these regions.	./cache/cord-217139-d9q7zkog.txt	./txt/cord-217139-d9q7zkog.txt