id sid tid token lemma pos cord-201898-d1vbnjff 1 1 key key JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 1 2 : : : cord-201898-d1vbnjff 1 3 cord-201898-d1vbnjff cord-201898-d1vbnjff NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 1 4 authors author NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 1 5 : : : cord-201898-d1vbnjff 1 6 Jha Jha NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 1 7 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 1 8 Vishwajeet Vishwajeet NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 1 9 title title NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 1 10 : : : cord-201898-d1vbnjff 2 1 Forecasting forecast VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 2 2 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 2 3 transmission transmission NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 2 4 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 3 1 Covid-19 Covid-19 NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 3 2 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 3 3 India India NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 3 4 using use VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 3 5 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 3 6 data data NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 3 7 driven drive VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 3 8 SEIRD SEIRD NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 3 9 model model NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 3 10 date date NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 3 11 : : : cord-201898-d1vbnjff 3 12 2020 2020 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 3 13 - - HYPH cord-201898-d1vbnjff 3 14 06 06 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 3 15 - - HYPH cord-201898-d1vbnjff 3 16 08 08 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 3 17 journal journal NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 3 18 : : : cord-201898-d1vbnjff 3 19 nan nan NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 3 20 DOI DOI NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 3 21 : : : cord-201898-d1vbnjff 3 22 nan nan NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 3 23 sha sha NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 3 24 : : : cord-201898-d1vbnjff 3 25 9a2b0c7de6f029b2c7fdec04f158448a37f316c7 9a2b0c7de6f029b2c7fdec04f158448a37f316c7 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 3 26 doc_id doc_id CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 3 27 : : : cord-201898-d1vbnjff 3 28 201898 201898 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 3 29 cord_uid cord_uid NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 3 30 : : : cord-201898-d1vbnjff 4 1 d1vbnjff d1vbnjff NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 5 1 The the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 5 2 infections infection NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 5 3 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 5 4 fatalities fatality NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 5 5 due due JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 5 6 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 5 7 SARS SARS NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 5 8 - - HYPH cord-201898-d1vbnjff 5 9 CoV-2 CoV-2 NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 5 10 virus virus NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 5 11 for for IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 5 12 cases case NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 5 13 specific specific JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 5 14 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 5 15 India India NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 5 16 have have VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 5 17 been be VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 5 18 studied study VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 5 19 using use VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 5 20 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 5 21 deterministic deterministic JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 5 22 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 5 23 - - HYPH cord-201898-d1vbnjff 5 24 exposed expose VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 5 25 - - HYPH cord-201898-d1vbnjff 5 26 infected infect VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 5 27 - - HYPH cord-201898-d1vbnjff 5 28 recovered recover VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 5 29 - - HYPH cord-201898-d1vbnjff 5 30 dead dead JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 5 31 ( ( -LRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 5 32 SEIRD SEIRD NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 5 33 ) ) -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 5 34 compartmental compartmental JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 5 35 model model NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 5 36 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 6 1 One one CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 6 2 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 6 3 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 6 4 most most RBS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 6 5 significant significant JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 6 6 epidemiological epidemiological JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 6 7 parameter parameter NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 6 8 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 6 9 namely namely RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 6 10 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 6 11 effective effective JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 6 12 reproduction reproduction NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 6 13 number number NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 6 14 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 6 15 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 6 16 infection infection NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 6 17 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 6 18 extracted extract VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 6 19 from from IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 6 20 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 6 21 daily daily JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 6 22 growth growth NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 6 23 rate rate NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 6 24 data datum NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 6 25 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 6 26 reported report VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 6 27 infections infection NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 6 28 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 6 29 it -PRON- PRP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 6 30 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 6 31 included include VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 6 32 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 6 33 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 6 34 model model NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 6 35 with with IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 6 36 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 6 37 time time NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 6 38 variation variation NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 6 39 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 7 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 7 2 evaluate evaluate VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 7 3 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 7 4 effect effect NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 7 5 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 7 6 control control NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 7 7 interventions intervention NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 7 8 implemented implement VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 7 9 till till IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 7 10 now now RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 7 11 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 7 12 estimate estimate VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 7 13 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 7 14 case case NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 7 15 numbers number NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 7 16 for for IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 7 17 infections infection NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 7 18 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 7 19 deaths death NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 7 20 averted avert VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 7 21 by by IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 7 22 these these DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 7 23 restrictive restrictive JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 7 24 measures measure NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 7 25 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 8 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 8 2 further further RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 8 3 provide provide VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 8 4 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 8 5 forecast forecast NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 8 6 on on IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 8 7 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 8 8 extent extent NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 8 9 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 8 10 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 8 11 future future JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 8 12 Covid-19 covid-19 NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 8 13 transmission transmission NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 8 14 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 8 15 India India NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 8 16 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 8 17 predict predict VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 8 18 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 8 19 probable probable JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 8 20 numbers number NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 8 21 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 8 22 infections infection NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 8 23 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 8 24 fatalities fatality NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 8 25 under under IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 8 26 various various JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 8 27 potential potential JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 8 28 scenarios scenario NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 8 29 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 9 1 The the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 9 2 infections infection NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 9 3 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 9 4 fatalities fatality NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 9 5 due due JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 9 6 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 9 7 SARS SARS NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 9 8 - - HYPH cord-201898-d1vbnjff 9 9 CoV-2 CoV-2 NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 9 10 virus virus NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 9 11 for for IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 9 12 cases case NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 9 13 specific specific JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 9 14 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 9 15 India India NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 9 16 have have VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 9 17 been be VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 9 18 studied study VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 9 19 using use VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 9 20 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 9 21 deterministic deterministic JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 9 22 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 9 23 - - HYPH cord-201898-d1vbnjff 9 24 exposed expose VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 9 25 - - HYPH cord-201898-d1vbnjff 9 26 infected infect VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 9 27 - - HYPH cord-201898-d1vbnjff 9 28 recovered recover VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 9 29 - - HYPH cord-201898-d1vbnjff 9 30 dead dead JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 9 31 ( ( -LRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 9 32 SEIRD SEIRD NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 9 33 ) ) -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 9 34 compartmental compartmental JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 9 35 model model NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 9 36 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 10 1 One one CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 10 2 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 10 3 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 10 4 most most RBS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 10 5 significant significant JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 10 6 epidemiological epidemiological JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 10 7 parameter parameter NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 10 8 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 10 9 namely namely RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 10 10 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 10 11 effective effective JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 10 12 reproduction reproduction NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 10 13 number number NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 10 14 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 10 15 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 10 16 infection infection NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 10 17 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 10 18 extracted extract VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 10 19 from from IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 10 20 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 10 21 daily daily JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 10 22 growth growth NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 10 23 rate rate NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 10 24 data datum NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 10 25 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 10 26 reported report VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 10 27 infections infection NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 10 28 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 10 29 it -PRON- PRP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 10 30 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 10 31 included include VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 10 32 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 10 33 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 10 34 model model NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 10 35 with with IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 10 36 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 10 37 time time NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 10 38 variation variation NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 10 39 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 11 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 11 2 evaluate evaluate VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 11 3 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 11 4 effect effect NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 11 5 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 11 6 control control NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 11 7 interventions intervention NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 11 8 implemented implement VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 11 9 till till IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 11 10 now now RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 11 11 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 11 12 estimate estimate VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 11 13 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 11 14 case case NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 11 15 numbers number NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 11 16 for for IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 11 17 infections infection NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 11 18 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 11 19 deaths death NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 11 20 averted avert VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 11 21 by by IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 11 22 these these DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 11 23 restrictive restrictive JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 11 24 measures measure NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 11 25 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 12 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 12 2 further further RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 12 3 provide provide VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 12 4 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 12 5 forecast forecast NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 12 6 on on IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 12 7 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 12 8 extent extent NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 12 9 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 12 10 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 12 11 future future JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 12 12 Covid-19 covid-19 NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 12 13 transmission transmission NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 12 14 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 12 15 India India NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 12 16 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 12 17 predict predict VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 12 18 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 12 19 probable probable JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 12 20 numbers number NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 12 21 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 12 22 infections infection NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 12 23 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 12 24 fatalities fatality NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 12 25 under under IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 12 26 various various JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 12 27 potential potential JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 12 28 scenarios scenario NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 12 29 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 13 1 Almost almost RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 13 2 every every DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 13 3 continent continent NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 13 4 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 13 5 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 13 6 planet planet NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 13 7 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 13 8 grappling grapple VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 13 9 with with IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 13 10 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 13 11 large large JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 13 12 number number NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 13 13 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 13 14 infections infection NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 13 15 arising arise VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 13 16 due due IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 13 17 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 13 18 virus virus NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 13 19 called call VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 13 20 Coronavirus Coronavirus NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 13 21 2 2 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 13 22 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 13 23 SARS SARS NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 13 24 - - HYPH cord-201898-d1vbnjff 13 25 CoV-2 CoV-2 NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 13 26 [ [ -LRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 13 27 1 1 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 13 28 ] ] -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 13 29 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 14 1 These these DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 14 2 infections infection NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 14 3 that that WDT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 14 4 may may MD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 14 5 result result VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 14 6 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 14 7 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 14 8 mild mild JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 14 9 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 14 10 severe severe JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 14 11 symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 14 12 disease disease NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 14 13 called call VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 14 14 Coronavirus Coronavirus NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 14 15 disease disease NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 14 16 2019 2019 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 14 17 or or CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 14 18 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 14 19 were be VBD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 14 20 first first RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 14 21 detected detect VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 14 22 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 14 23 Wuhan Wuhan NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 14 24 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 14 25 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 14 26 city city NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 14 27 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 14 28 central central JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 14 29 China China NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 14 30 [ [ -LRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 14 31 2 2 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 14 32 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 14 33 3 3 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 14 34 ] ] -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 14 35 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 15 1 Later later RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 15 2 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 15 3 infections infection NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 15 4 spread spread VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 15 5 across across IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 15 6 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 15 7 globe globe NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 15 8 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 15 9 it -PRON- PRP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 15 10 has have VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 15 11 forced force VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 15 12 nations nation NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 15 13 to to TO cord-201898-d1vbnjff 15 14 undertake undertake VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 15 15 drastic drastic JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 15 16 measures measure NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 15 17 to to TO cord-201898-d1vbnjff 15 18 minimize minimize VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 15 19 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 15 20 loss loss NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 15 21 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 15 22 precious precious JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 15 23 human human JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 15 24 lives life NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 15 25 [ [ -LRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 15 26 4 4 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 15 27 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 15 28 5 5 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 15 29 ] ] -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 15 30 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 16 1 For for IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 16 2 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 16 3 populous populous JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 16 4 country country NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 16 5 like like IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 16 6 India India NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 16 7 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 16 8 which which WDT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 16 9 has have VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 16 10 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 16 11 dense dense JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 16 12 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 16 13 large large JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 16 14 population population NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 16 15 ( ( -LRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 16 16 ≈ ≈ NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 16 17 1.4 1.4 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 16 18 billion billion CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 16 19 ) ) -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 16 20 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 16 21 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 16 22 cause cause NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 16 23 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 16 24 concern concern NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 16 25 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 16 26 quite quite RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 16 27 high high JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 16 28 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 17 1 Therefore therefore RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 17 2 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 17 3 it -PRON- PRP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 17 4 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 17 5 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 17 6 special special JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 17 7 importance importance NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 17 8 to to TO cord-201898-d1vbnjff 17 9 study study VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 17 10 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 17 11 spread spread NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 17 12 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 17 13 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 17 14 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 17 15 India India NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 17 16 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 17 17 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 17 18 make make VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 17 19 reliable reliable JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 17 20 predictions prediction NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 17 21 which which WDT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 17 22 can can MD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 17 23 help help VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 17 24 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 17 25 mitigation mitigation NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 17 26 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 17 27 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 17 28 ensuing ensue VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 17 29 effects effect NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 17 30 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 18 1 These these DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 18 2 timely timely RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 18 3 critical critical JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 18 4 information information NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 18 5 may may MD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 18 6 be be VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 18 7 crucial crucial JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 18 8 for for IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 18 9 devising devise VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 18 10 strategies strategy NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 18 11 for for IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 18 12 containment containment NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 18 13 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 18 14 infections infection NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 18 15 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 18 16 estimating estimate VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 18 17 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 18 18 requirements requirement NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 18 19 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 18 20 medical medical JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 18 21 facilities facility NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 18 22 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 19 1 In in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 19 2 India India NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 19 3 an an DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 19 4 early early JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 19 5 complete complete JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 19 6 nation nation NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 19 7 - - HYPH cord-201898-d1vbnjff 19 8 wide wide JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 19 9 lock lock NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 19 10 - - HYPH cord-201898-d1vbnjff 19 11 down down NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 19 12 was be VBD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 19 13 imposed impose VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 19 14 from from IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 19 15 25 25 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 19 16 th th DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 19 17 March March NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 19 18 when when WRB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 19 19 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 19 20 number number NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 19 21 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 19 22 cumulative cumulative JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 19 23 SARS SARS NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 19 24 - - HYPH cord-201898-d1vbnjff 19 25 CoV-2 CoV-2 NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 19 26 infections infection NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 19 27 were be VBD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 19 28 around around RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 19 29 650 650 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 19 30 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 20 1 These these DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 20 2 strict strict JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 20 3 measures measure NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 20 4 prevented prevent VBD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 20 5 any any DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 20 6 large large JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 20 7 scale scale NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 20 8 disaster disaster NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 20 9 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 20 10 slowed slow VBD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 20 11 down down IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 20 12 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 20 13 rate rate NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 20 14 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 20 15 infections infection NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 20 16 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 20 17 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 20 18 initial initial JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 20 19 stages stage NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 20 20 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 20 21 helped help VBD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 20 22 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 20 23 geographical geographical JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 20 24 containment containment NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 20 25 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 20 26 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 20 27 epidemic epidemic NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 20 28 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 21 1 However however RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 21 2 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 21 3 recent recent JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 21 4 days day NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 21 5 have have VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 21 6 seen see VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 21 7 no no DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 21 8 real real JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 21 9 decrease decrease NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 21 10 perhaps perhaps RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 21 11 due due JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 21 12 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 21 13 gradual gradual JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 21 14 weakening weakening NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 21 15 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 21 16 restrictive restrictive JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 21 17 measures measure NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 21 18 owing owe VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 21 19 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 21 20 pragmatic pragmatic JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 21 21 social social JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 21 22 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 21 23 economic economic JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 21 24 reasons reason NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 21 25 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 22 1 From from IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 22 2 June June NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 22 3 1 1 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 22 4 st st NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 22 5 India India NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 22 6 continues continue VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 22 7 to to TO cord-201898-d1vbnjff 22 8 have have VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 22 9 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 22 10 complete complete JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 22 11 lock lock NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 22 12 - - HYPH cord-201898-d1vbnjff 22 13 down down RP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 22 14 only only RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 22 15 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 22 16 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 22 17 defined define VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 22 18 containment containment NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 22 19 zones zone NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 22 20 where where WRB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 22 21 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 22 22 infection infection NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 22 23 rates rate NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 22 24 are be VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 22 25 high high JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 22 26 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 23 1 These these DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 23 2 steps step NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 23 3 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 23 4 gradual gradual JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 23 5 easing easing NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 23 6 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 23 7 lock lock NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 23 8 - - HYPH cord-201898-d1vbnjff 23 9 down down NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 23 10 have have VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 23 11 been be VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 23 12 necessitated necessitate VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 23 13 as as IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 23 14 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 23 15 balance balance NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 23 16 between between IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 23 17 life life NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 23 18 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 23 19 livelihoods livelihood NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 23 20 are be VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 23 21 intertwined intertwine VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 23 22 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 23 23 which which WDT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 23 24 calls call VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 23 25 for for IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 23 26 invoking invoke VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 23 27 more more RBR cord-201898-d1vbnjff 23 28 intelligent intelligent JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 23 29 strategies strategy NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 23 30 because because IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 23 31 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 23 32 complete complete JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 23 33 extended extended JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 23 34 lockdown lockdown NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 23 35 can can MD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 23 36 not not RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 23 37 be be VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 23 38 sustained sustain VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 23 39 for for IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 23 40 very very RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 23 41 long long JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 23 42 time time NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 23 43 without without IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 23 44 other other JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 23 45 competing compete VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 23 46 collateral collateral JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 23 47 losses loss NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 23 48 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 23 49 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 23 50 most most RBS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 23 51 vulnerable vulnerable JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 23 52 sections section NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 23 53 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 23 54 society society NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 23 55 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 24 1 Alternative alternative JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 24 2 steps step NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 24 3 based base VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 24 4 on on IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 24 5 isolation isolation NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 24 6 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 24 7 infected infected JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 24 8 patients patient NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 24 9 through through IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 24 10 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 24 11 lock lock NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 24 12 - - HYPH cord-201898-d1vbnjff 24 13 down down NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 24 14 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 24 15 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 24 16 containment containment NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 24 17 zones zone NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 24 18 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 24 19 more more RBR cord-201898-d1vbnjff 24 20 widespread widespread JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 24 21 testing testing NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 24 22 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 24 23 contacttracing contacttracing NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 24 24 are be VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 24 25 being be VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 24 26 followed follow VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 24 27 for for IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 24 28 controlling control VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 24 29 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 24 30 rate rate NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 24 31 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 24 32 infection infection NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 24 33 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 25 1 This this DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 25 2 represents represent VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 25 3 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 25 4 transition transition NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 25 5 from from IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 25 6 suppression suppression NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 25 7 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 25 8 mitigation mitigation NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 25 9 strategy strategy NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 25 10 for for IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 25 11 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 25 12 resolution resolution NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 25 13 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 25 14 any any DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 25 15 potential potential JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 25 16 outbreak outbreak NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 25 17 but but CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 25 18 efficacy efficacy NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 25 19 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 25 20 these these DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 25 21 steps step NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 25 22 remains remain VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 25 23 to to TO cord-201898-d1vbnjff 25 24 be be VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 25 25 seen see VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 25 26 as as IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 25 27 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 25 28 execution execution NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 25 29 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 25 30 these these DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 25 31 policies policy NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 25 32 on on IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 25 33 ground ground NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 25 34 level level NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 25 35 are be VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 25 36 challenging challenging JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 25 37 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 26 1 The the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 26 2 transmission transmission NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 26 3 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 26 4 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 26 5 viral viral JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 26 6 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 26 7 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 26 8 any any DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 26 9 population population NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 26 10 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 26 11 an an DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 26 12 interplay interplay NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 26 13 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 26 14 various various JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 26 15 factors factor NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 26 16 related relate VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 26 17 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 26 18 viral viral JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 26 19 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 26 20 immunologic immunologic JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 26 21 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 26 22 environmental environmental JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 26 23 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 26 24 sociological sociological JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 26 25 conditions condition NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 26 26 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 27 1 A a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 27 2 number number NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 27 3 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 27 4 mathematical mathematical JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 27 5 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 27 6 physical physical JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 27 7 models model NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 27 8 have have VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 27 9 been be VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 27 10 proposed propose VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 27 11 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 27 12 general general JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 27 13 to to TO cord-201898-d1vbnjff 27 14 understand understand VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 27 15 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 27 16 evolution evolution NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 27 17 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 27 18 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 27 19 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 27 20 aiming aim VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 27 21 to to TO cord-201898-d1vbnjff 27 22 make make VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 27 23 reliable reliable JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 27 24 predictions prediction NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 27 25 so so IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 27 26 that that IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 27 27 to to TO cord-201898-d1vbnjff 27 28 help help VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 27 29 governments government NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 27 30 to to TO cord-201898-d1vbnjff 27 31 formulate formulate VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 27 32 proper proper JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 27 33 policies policy NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 27 34 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 27 35 response response NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 27 36 plans plan NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 27 37 for for IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 27 38 effective effective JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 27 39 control control NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 27 40 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 27 41 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 27 42 disease disease NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 27 43 [ [ -LRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 27 44 6 6 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 27 45 ] ] -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 27 46 [ [ -LRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 27 47 7 7 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 27 48 ] ] -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 27 49 [ [ -LRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 27 50 8 8 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 27 51 ] ] -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 27 52 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 28 1 Simple simple JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 28 2 deterministic deterministic JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 28 3 mathematical mathematical JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 28 4 models model NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 28 5 based base VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 28 6 on on IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 28 7 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 28 8 formulation formulation NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 28 9 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 28 10 differential differential JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 28 11 equations equation NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 28 12 have have VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 28 13 been be VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 28 14 extensively extensively RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 28 15 used use VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 28 16 to to TO cord-201898-d1vbnjff 28 17 provide provide VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 28 18 information information NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 28 19 on on IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 28 20 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 28 21 transmission transmission NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 28 22 mechanism mechanism NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 28 23 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 28 24 various various JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 28 25 viral viral JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 28 26 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 28 27 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 29 1 The the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 29 2 SIR SIR NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 29 3 model model NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 29 4 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 29 5 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 29 6 one one CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 29 7 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 29 8 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 29 9 simplest simple JJS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 29 10 epidemiological epidemiological JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 29 11 models model NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 29 12 that that WDT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 29 13 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 29 14 based base VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 29 15 on on IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 29 16 dividing divide VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 29 17 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 29 18 population population NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 29 19 among among IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 29 20 three three CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 29 21 compartments compartment NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 29 22 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 29 23 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 29 24 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 29 25 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 29 26 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 29 27 infected infected JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 29 28 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 29 29 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 29 30 recovered recovered JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 29 31 ( ( -LRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 29 32 or or CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 29 33 deceased deceased JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 29 34 ) ) -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 29 35 populations population NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 29 36 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 29 37 determining determine VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 29 38 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 29 39 time time NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 29 40 evolution evolution NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 29 41 [ [ -LRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 29 42 9 9 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 29 43 ] ] -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 29 44 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 30 1 The the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 30 2 SEIR SEIR NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 30 3 [ [ -LRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 30 4 10 10 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 30 5 ] ] -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 30 6 model model NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 30 7 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 30 8 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 30 9 simple simple JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 30 10 extension extension NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 30 11 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 30 12 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 30 13 SIR SIR NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 30 14 model model NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 30 15 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 30 16 where where WRB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 30 17 an an DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 30 18 additional additional JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 30 19 compartment compartment NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 30 20 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 30 21 exposed expose VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 30 22 population population NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 30 23 with with IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 30 24 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 30 25 latency latency NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 30 26 period period NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 30 27 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 30 28 introduced introduce VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 30 29 which which WDT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 30 30 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 30 31 more more RBR cord-201898-d1vbnjff 30 32 appropriate appropriate JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 30 33 for for IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 30 34 COVID-19 covid-19 NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 30 35 like like JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 30 36 epidemic epidemic NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 30 37 which which WDT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 30 38 has have VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 30 39 an an DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 30 40 inherent inherent JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 30 41 latency latency NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 30 42 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 30 43 asymptomatic asymptomatic JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 30 44 transmission transmission NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 30 45 [ [ -LRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 30 46 11 11 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 30 47 ] ] -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 30 48 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 31 1 Extended extended JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 31 2 models model NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 31 3 have have VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 31 4 been be VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 31 5 employed employ VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 31 6 that that WDT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 31 7 use use VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 31 8 several several JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 31 9 separate separate JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 31 10 compartments compartment NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 31 11 for for IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 31 12 various various JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 31 13 sub sub NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 31 14 - - NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 31 15 populations population NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 31 16 such such JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 31 17 as as IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 31 18 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 31 19 asymptomatic asymptomatic JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 31 20 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 31 21 quarantined quarantine VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 31 22 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 31 23 hospitalized hospitalize VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 31 24 or or CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 31 25 components component NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 31 26 based base VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 31 27 on on IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 31 28 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 31 29 variations variation NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 31 30 for for IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 31 31 example example NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 31 32 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 31 33 according accord VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 31 34 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 31 35 age age NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 31 36 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 31 37 gender gender NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 31 38 etc etc FW cord-201898-d1vbnjff 31 39 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 32 1 [ [ -LRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 32 2 12 12 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 32 3 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 32 4 13 13 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 32 5 ] ] -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 32 6 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 33 1 However however RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 33 2 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 33 3 this this DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 33 4 entails entail VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 33 5 incorporation incorporation NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 33 6 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 33 7 many many JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 33 8 unknown unknown JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 33 9 parameters parameter NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 33 10 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 33 11 uncertain uncertain JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 33 12 initial initial JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 33 13 conditions condition NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 33 14 about about IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 33 15 which which WDT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 33 16 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 33 17 information information NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 33 18 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 33 19 either either CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 33 20 not not RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 33 21 available available JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 33 22 or or CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 33 23 there there EX cord-201898-d1vbnjff 33 24 are be VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 33 25 large large JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 33 26 associated associate VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 33 27 uncertainties uncertainty NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 33 28 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 34 1 In in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 34 2 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 34 3 present present JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 34 4 article article NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 34 5 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 34 6 we -PRON- PRP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 34 7 employ employ VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 34 8 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 34 9 dynamic dynamic JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 34 10 SEIRD SEIRD NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 34 11 model model NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 34 12 with with IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 34 13 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 34 14 inclusion inclusion NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 34 15 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 34 16 population population NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 34 17 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 34 18 deaths death NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 34 19 as as IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 34 20 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 34 21 separate separate JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 34 22 compartment compartment NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 34 23 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 34 24 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 34 25 SEIR SEIR NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 34 26 model model NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 34 27 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 35 1 Several several JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 35 2 works work NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 35 3 have have VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 35 4 been be VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 35 5 already already RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 35 6 performed perform VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 35 7 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 35 8 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 35 9 Indian indian JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 35 10 context context NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 35 11 to to TO cord-201898-d1vbnjff 35 12 explain explain VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 35 13 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 35 14 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 35 15 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 35 16 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 35 17 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 35 18 initial initial JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 35 19 phase phase NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 35 20 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 35 21 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 35 22 transmission transmission NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 35 23 [ [ -LRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 35 24 14 14 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 35 25 ] ] -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 35 26 [ [ -LRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 35 27 15 15 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 35 28 ] ] -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 35 29 [ [ -LRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 35 30 16 16 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 35 31 ] ] -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 36 1 [ [ -LRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 36 2 17 17 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 36 3 ] ] -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 36 4 [ [ -LRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 36 5 18 18 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 36 6 ] ] -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 36 7 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 37 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 37 2 incorporate incorporate VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 37 3 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 37 4 crucial crucial JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 37 5 parameter parameter NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 37 6 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 37 7 contact contact NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 37 8 period period NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 37 9 with with IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 37 10 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 37 11 time time NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 37 12 variation variation NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 37 13 connecting connect VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 37 14 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 37 15 value value NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 37 16 at at IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 37 17 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 37 18 beginning beginning NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 37 19 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 37 20 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 37 21 epidemic epidemic NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 37 22 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 37 23 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 37 24 current current JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 37 25 reduced reduce VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 37 26 value value NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 37 27 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 38 1 The the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 38 2 reduction reduction NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 38 3 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 38 4 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 38 5 values value NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 38 6 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 38 7 contact contact NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 38 8 rate rate NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 38 9 has have VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 38 10 been be VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 38 11 achieved achieve VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 38 12 due due JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 38 13 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 38 14 many many JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 38 15 isolation isolation NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 38 16 measures measure NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 38 17 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 38 18 primarily primarily RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 38 19 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 38 20 imposed impose VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 38 21 nation nation NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 38 22 - - HYPH cord-201898-d1vbnjff 38 23 wide wide JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 38 24 lock lock NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 38 25 - - HYPH cord-201898-d1vbnjff 38 26 down down NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 38 27 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 39 1 The the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 39 2 time time NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 39 3 variation variation NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 39 4 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 39 5 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 39 6 contact contact NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 39 7 rate rate NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 39 8 β(t β(t NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 39 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 39 10 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 39 11 determined determine VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 39 12 through through IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 39 13 arXiv:2006.04464v1 arXiv:2006.04464v1 NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 39 14 [ [ -LRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 39 15 q q NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 39 16 - - HYPH cord-201898-d1vbnjff 39 17 bio bio NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 39 18 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 39 19 PE PE NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 39 20 ] ] -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 39 21 8 8 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 39 22 Jun Jun NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 39 23 2020 2020 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 40 1 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 40 2 effective effective JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 40 3 reproduction reproduction NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 40 4 number number NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 40 5 R(t R(t NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 40 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 41 1 that that DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 41 2 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 41 3 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 41 4 turn turn NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 41 5 related relate VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 41 6 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 41 7 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 41 8 doubling double VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 41 9 time time NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 41 10 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 41 11 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 41 12 rate rate NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 41 13 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 41 14 infection infection NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 41 15 growth growth NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 41 16 [ [ -LRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 41 17 19 19 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 41 18 ] ] -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 41 19 [ [ -LRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 41 20 20 20 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 41 21 ] ] -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 41 22 [ [ -LRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 41 23 21 21 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 41 24 ] ] -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 41 25 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 42 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 42 2 integrate integrate VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 42 3 this this DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 42 4 parameter parameter NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 42 5 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 42 6 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 42 7 SEIRD SEIRD NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 42 8 model model NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 42 9 calculations calculation NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 42 10 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 42 11 estimate estimate VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 42 12 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 42 13 role role NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 42 14 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 42 15 interventions intervention NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 42 16 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 42 17 preventing prevent VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 42 18 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 42 19 number number NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 42 20 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 42 21 probable probable JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 42 22 infections infection NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 42 23 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 42 24 death death NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 42 25 till till IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 42 26 now now RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 42 27 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 43 1 Further further RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 43 2 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 43 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 43 4 consider consider VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 43 5 different different JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 43 6 potential potential JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 43 7 scenarios scenario NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 43 8 for for IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 43 9 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 43 10 rate rate NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 43 11 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 43 12 growth growth NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 43 13 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 43 14 infections infection NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 43 15 for for IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 43 16 making make VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 43 17 projections projection NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 43 18 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 43 19 SARS SARS NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 43 20 - - HYPH cord-201898-d1vbnjff 43 21 CoV-2 CoV-2 NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 43 22 transmission transmission NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 43 23 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 44 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 44 2 make make VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 44 3 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 44 4 forecast forecast NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 44 5 for for IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 44 6 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 44 7 probable probable JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 44 8 numbers number NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 44 9 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 44 10 infections infection NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 44 11 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 44 12 fatalities fatality NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 44 13 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 44 14 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 44 15 coming come VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 44 16 times time NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 44 17 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 45 1 The the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 45 2 projections projection NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 45 3 provide provide VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 45 4 information information NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 45 5 for for IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 45 6 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 45 7 extent extent NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 45 8 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 45 9 suppression suppression NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 45 10 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 45 11 containment containment NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 45 12 strategies strategy NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 45 13 that that WDT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 45 14 need need VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 45 15 to to TO cord-201898-d1vbnjff 45 16 be be VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 45 17 employed employ VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 45 18 to to TO cord-201898-d1vbnjff 45 19 mitigate mitigate VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 45 20 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 45 21 impact impact NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 45 22 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 45 23 Covid-19 covid-19 NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 45 24 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 45 25 coming come VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 45 26 times time NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 45 27 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 46 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 46 2 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 46 3 to to TO cord-201898-d1vbnjff 46 4 be be VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 46 5 mentioned mention VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 46 6 that that IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 46 7 results result NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 46 8 obtained obtain VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 46 9 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 46 10 this this DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 46 11 work work NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 46 12 are be VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 46 13 to to TO cord-201898-d1vbnjff 46 14 be be VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 46 15 used use VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 46 16 for for IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 46 17 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 46 18 research research NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 46 19 purposes purpose NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 46 20 only only RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 46 21 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 47 1 The the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 47 2 data datum NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 47 3 for for IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 47 4 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 47 5 present present JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 47 6 studies study NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 47 7 are be VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 47 8 collected collect VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 47 9 from from IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 47 10 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 47 11 repository repository NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 47 12 hosted host VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 47 13 at at IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 47 14 website website NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 47 15 https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus ADD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 47 16 [ [ -LRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 47 17 22 22 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 47 18 ] ] -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 47 19 for for IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 47 20 cases case NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 47 21 specific specific JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 47 22 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 47 23 India India NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 47 24 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 48 1 The the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 48 2 epidemiology epidemiology NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 48 3 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 48 4 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 48 5 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 48 6 outbreak outbreak NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 48 7 using use VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 48 8 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 48 9 deterministic deterministic JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 48 10 SEIRD SEIRD NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 48 11 model model NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 48 12 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 48 13 studied study VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 48 14 with with IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 48 15 five five CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 48 16 compartments compartment NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 48 17 governed govern VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 48 18 by by IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 48 19 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 48 20 set set NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 48 21 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 48 22 ordinary ordinary JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 48 23 differential differential JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 48 24 equations equation NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 48 25 where where WRB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 48 26 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 48 27 S(t S(t NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 48 28 ) ) -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 48 29 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 48 30 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 48 31 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 48 32 population population NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 48 33 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 48 34 E(t E(t NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 48 35 ) ) -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 48 36 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 48 37 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 48 38 exposed expose VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 48 39 population population NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 48 40 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 48 41 I(t I(t NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 48 42 ) ) -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 48 43 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 48 44 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 48 45 infectious infectious JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 48 46 population population NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 48 47 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 49 1 R(t R(t NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 49 2 ) ) -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 49 3 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 49 4 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 49 5 recovered recovered JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 49 6 population population NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 49 7 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 49 8 D(t D(t NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 49 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 49 10 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 49 11 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 49 12 number number NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 49 13 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 49 14 deaths death NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 49 15 at at IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 49 16 any any DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 49 17 instant instant JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 49 18 t t NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 49 19 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 49 20 N n NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 49 21 = = SYM cord-201898-d1vbnjff 49 22 S s NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 50 1 + + CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 51 1 E E NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 52 1 + + CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 53 1 I -PRON- PRP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 53 2 + + CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 53 3 R r NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 53 4 + + CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 53 5 D d NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 53 6 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 53 7 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 53 8 total total JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 53 9 population population NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 53 10 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 54 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 54 2 have have VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 54 3 not not RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 54 4 included include VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 54 5 separate separate JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 54 6 compartments compartment NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 54 7 for for IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 54 8 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 54 9 number number NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 54 10 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 54 11 asymptomatic asymptomatic JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 54 12 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 54 13 quarantined quarantine VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 54 14 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 54 15 hospitalized hospitalize VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 54 16 populations population NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 54 17 or or CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 54 18 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 54 19 variations variation NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 54 20 according accord VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 54 21 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 54 22 age age NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 54 23 or or CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 54 24 gender gender NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 54 25 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 54 26 as as IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 54 27 these these DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 54 28 lead lead VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 54 29 to to TO cord-201898-d1vbnjff 54 30 increase increase VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 54 31 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 54 32 number number NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 54 33 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 54 34 unknown unknown JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 54 35 parameters parameter NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 54 36 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 54 37 therefore therefore RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 54 38 lead lead VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 54 39 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 54 40 large large JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 54 41 uncertainties uncertainty NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 54 42 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 54 43 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 54 44 predictions prediction NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 54 45 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 55 1 In in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 55 2 any any DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 55 3 case case NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 55 4 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 55 5 these these DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 55 6 numbers number NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 55 7 can can MD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 55 8 be be VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 55 9 estimated estimate VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 55 10 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 55 11 an an DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 55 12 average average JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 55 13 way way NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 55 14 with with IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 55 15 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 55 16 relations relation NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 55 17 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 55 18 populations population NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 55 19 that that WDT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 55 20 have have VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 55 21 been be VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 55 22 considered consider VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 55 23 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 56 1 In in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 56 2 addition addition NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 56 3 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 56 4 assumption assumption NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 56 5 about about IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 56 6 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 56 7 no no DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 56 8 re re NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 56 9 - - NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 56 10 infection infection NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 56 11 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 56 12 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 56 13 recovered recover VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 56 14 population population NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 56 15 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 56 16 made make VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 56 17 as as IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 56 18 there there EX cord-201898-d1vbnjff 56 19 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 56 20 no no DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 56 21 evidence evidence NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 56 22 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 56 23 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 56 24 contrary contrary NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 56 25 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 57 1 The the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 57 2 parameters parameter NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 57 3 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 57 4 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 57 5 above above JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 57 6 set set NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 57 7 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 57 8 equations equation NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 57 9 are be VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 57 10 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 57 11 latent latent JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 57 12 period period NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 57 13 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 57 14 being be VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 57 15 exposed expose VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 57 16 A a NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 57 17 = = SYM cord-201898-d1vbnjff 57 18 1 1 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 57 19 / / SYM cord-201898-d1vbnjff 57 20 φ φ NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 57 21 that that WDT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 57 22 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 57 23 related relate VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 57 24 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 57 25 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 57 26 incubation incubation NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 57 27 period period NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 57 28 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 57 29 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 57 30 virus virus NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 57 31 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 57 32 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 57 33 contact contact NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 57 34 period period NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 57 35 B b NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 57 36 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 57 37 infection infection NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 57 38 = = NFP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 58 1 1 1 LS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 58 2 / / SYM cord-201898-d1vbnjff 58 3 β β NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 58 4 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 58 5 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 58 6 period period NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 58 7 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 58 8 being be VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 58 9 free free JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 58 10 from from IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 58 11 being be VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 58 12 infected infect VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 58 13 G g NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 58 14 = = SYM cord-201898-d1vbnjff 58 15 1 1 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 58 16 / / SYM cord-201898-d1vbnjff 58 17 γ γ NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 58 18 commonly commonly RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 58 19 known know VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 58 20 as as IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 58 21 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 58 22 recovery recovery NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 58 23 time time NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 58 24 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 58 25 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 58 26 parameter parameter NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 58 27 corresponding correspond VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 58 28 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 58 29 death death NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 58 30 D d NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 58 31 = = NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 58 32 1 1 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 59 1 /δ /δ NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 59 2 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 59 3 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 59 4 infected infected JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 59 5 population population NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 59 6 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 60 1 These these DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 60 2 parameters parameter NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 60 3 determine determine VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 60 4 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 60 5 transitions transition NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 60 6 that that WDT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 60 7 occur occur VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 60 8 across across IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 60 9 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 60 10 compartments compartment NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 60 11 as as IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 60 12 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 60 13 time time NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 60 14 evolves evolve VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 60 15 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 61 1 Here here RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 61 2 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 61 3 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 61 4 parameters parameter NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 61 5 A A NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 61 6 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 61 7 G G NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 61 8 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 61 9 D d NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 61 10 are be VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 61 11 specific specific JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 61 12 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 61 13 characteristics characteristic NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 61 14 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 61 15 SARS SARS NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 61 16 - - HYPH cord-201898-d1vbnjff 61 17 CoV-2 CoV-2 NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 61 18 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 61 19 only only RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 61 20 weakly weakly RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 61 21 correlated correlate VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 61 22 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 61 23 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 61 24 health health NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 61 25 responses response NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 61 26 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 61 27 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 61 28 country country NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 61 29 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 61 30 therefore therefore RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 61 31 expected expect VBD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 61 32 to to TO cord-201898-d1vbnjff 61 33 have have VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 61 34 similar similar JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 61 35 values value NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 61 36 across across IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 61 37 countries country NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 61 38 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 62 1 The the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 62 2 parameter parameter NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 62 3 B b NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 62 4 represents represent VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 62 5 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 62 6 strength strength NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 62 7 ( ( -LRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 62 8 speed speed NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 62 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 62 10 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 62 11 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 62 12 virus virus NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 62 13 transmission transmission NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 62 14 which which WDT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 62 15 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 62 16 intimately intimately RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 62 17 related relate VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 62 18 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 62 19 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 62 20 prevailing prevail VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 62 21 conditions condition NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 62 22 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 62 23 containment containment NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 62 24 measures measure NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 62 25 undertaken undertake VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 62 26 by by IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 62 27 specific specific JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 62 28 countries country NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 62 29 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 63 1 Apart apart RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 63 2 from from IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 63 3 these these DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 63 4 parameters parameter NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 63 5 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 63 6 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 63 7 fraction fraction NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 63 8 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 63 9 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 63 10 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 63 11 population population NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 63 12 at at IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 63 13 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 63 14 beginning beginning NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 63 15 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 63 16 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 63 17 total total JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 63 18 population population NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 63 19 α α NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 63 20 = = : cord-201898-d1vbnjff 63 21 S(0)/N S(0)/N NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 63 22 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 63 23 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 63 24 very very RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 63 25 important important JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 63 26 parameter parameter NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 63 27 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 64 1 Taking take VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 64 2 total total JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 64 3 population population NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 64 4 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 64 5 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 64 6 region region NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 64 7 as as IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 64 8 S(0 S(0 NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 64 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 64 10 may may MD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 64 11 lead lead VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 64 12 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 64 13 gross gross JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 64 14 overestimation overestimation NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 64 15 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 64 16 case case NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 64 17 numbers number NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 64 18 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 64 19 because because IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 64 20 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 64 21 part part NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 64 22 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 64 23 population population NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 64 24 may may MD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 64 25 be be VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 64 26 inherently inherently RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 64 27 immune immune JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 64 28 or or CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 64 29 less less RBR cord-201898-d1vbnjff 64 30 affected affect VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 64 31 by by IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 64 32 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 64 33 virus virus NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 64 34 or or CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 64 35 live live VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 64 36 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 64 37 isolated isolated JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 64 38 conditions condition NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 64 39 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 65 1 Furthermore furthermore RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 65 2 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 65 3 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 65 4 extent extent NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 65 5 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 65 6 initial initial JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 65 7 exposed expose VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 65 8 latent latent JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 65 9 population population NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 65 10 defined define VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 65 11 by by IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 65 12 = = FW cord-201898-d1vbnjff 65 13 E(0)/I(0 E(0)/I(0 NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 65 14 ) ) -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 65 15 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 65 16 parameter parameter NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 65 17 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 65 18 may may MD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 65 19 also also RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 65 20 be be VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 65 21 an an DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 65 22 important important JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 65 23 parameter parameter NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 65 24 that that WDT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 65 25 indicates indicate VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 65 26 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 65 27 presence presence NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 65 28 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 65 29 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 65 30 number number NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 65 31 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 65 32 undetected undetected JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 65 33 or or CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 65 34 asymptomatic asymptomatic JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 65 35 exposed expose VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 65 36 individuals individual NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 65 37 at at IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 65 38 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 65 39 beginning beginning NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 65 40 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 66 1 One one CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 66 2 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 66 3 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 66 4 most most RBS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 66 5 significant significant JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 66 6 parameters parameter NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 66 7 that that WDT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 66 8 describes describe VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 66 9 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 66 10 pandemic pandemic NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 66 11 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 66 12 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 66 13 basic basic JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 66 14 reproduction reproduction NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 66 15 number number NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 66 16 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 66 17 infection infection NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 66 18 R r NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 66 19 0 0 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 66 20 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 66 21 which which WDT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 66 22 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 66 23 defined define VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 66 24 as as IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 66 25 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 66 26 number number NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 66 27 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 66 28 individuals individual NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 66 29 that that WDT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 66 30 are be VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 66 31 infected infect VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 66 32 from from IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 66 33 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 66 34 uninfected uninfected JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 66 35 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 66 36 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 66 37 population population NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 66 38 by by IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 66 39 one one CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 66 40 infected infect VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 66 41 individual individual NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 66 42 under under IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 66 43 normal normal JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 66 44 conditions condition NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 66 45 [ [ -LRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 66 46 6 6 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 66 47 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 66 48 19 19 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 66 49 ] ] -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 66 50 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 67 1 There there EX cord-201898-d1vbnjff 67 2 are be VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 67 3 challenges challenge NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 67 4 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 67 5 determining determine VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 67 6 R r NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 67 7 0 0 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 67 8 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 67 9 terms term NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 67 10 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 67 11 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 67 12 parameters parameter NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 67 13 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 67 14 deterministic deterministic JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 67 15 model model NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 67 16 as as IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 67 17 one one CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 67 18 requires require VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 67 19 estimates estimate NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 67 20 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 67 21 included include VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 67 22 parameters parameter NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 67 23 that that WDT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 67 24 are be VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 67 25 uncertain uncertain JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 67 26 [ [ -LRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 67 27 23 23 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 67 28 ] ] -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 67 29 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 68 1 During during IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 68 2 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 68 3 spread spread NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 68 4 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 68 5 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 68 6 epidemic epidemic NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 68 7 one one PRP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 68 8 can can MD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 68 9 define define VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 68 10 an an DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 68 11 effective effective JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 68 12 reproduction reproduction NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 68 13 number number NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 68 14 R r NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 68 15 i i NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 68 16 ( ( -LRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 68 17 t t NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 68 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 68 19 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 68 20 which which WDT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 68 21 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 68 22 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 68 23 time time NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 68 24 dependent dependent JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 68 25 quantity quantity NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 68 26 that that WDT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 68 27 changes change VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 68 28 because because IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 68 29 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 68 30 control control NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 68 31 measures measure NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 68 32 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 68 33 depletion depletion NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 68 34 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 68 35 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 68 36 population population NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 68 37 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 69 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 69 2 provides provide VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 69 3 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 69 4 dynamic dynamic JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 69 5 information information NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 69 6 on on IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 69 7 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 69 8 strength strength NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 69 9 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 69 10 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 69 11 epidemic epidemic NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 69 12 transmission transmission NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 69 13 as as IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 69 14 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 69 15 time time NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 69 16 evolves evolve VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 69 17 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 70 1 In in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 70 2 general general JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 70 3 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 70 4 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 70 5 infection infection NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 70 6 continues continue VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 70 7 to to TO cord-201898-d1vbnjff 70 8 expand expand VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 70 9 if if IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 70 10 R r NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 70 11 i i NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 70 12 ( ( -LRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 70 13 t t NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 70 14 ) ) -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 70 15 has have VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 70 16 values value NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 70 17 greater great JJR cord-201898-d1vbnjff 70 18 than than IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 70 19 1 1 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 70 20 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 70 21 while while IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 70 22 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 70 23 epidemic epidemic NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 70 24 stops stop VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 70 25 eventually eventually RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 70 26 if if IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 70 27 R r NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 70 28 i i PRP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 70 29 ( ( -LRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 70 30 t t NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 70 31 ) ) -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 70 32 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 70 33 persistently persistently RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 70 34 less less JJR cord-201898-d1vbnjff 70 35 than than IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 70 36 1 1 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 70 37 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 71 1 The the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 71 2 estimation estimation NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 71 3 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 71 4 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 71 5 effective effective JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 71 6 reproduction reproduction NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 71 7 number number NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 71 8 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 71 9 complicated complicated JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 71 10 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 71 11 many many JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 71 12 models model NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 71 13 have have VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 71 14 been be VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 71 15 proposed propose VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 71 16 for for IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 71 17 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 71 18 determination determination NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 71 19 [ [ -LRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 71 20 24 24 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 71 21 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 71 22 25 25 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 71 23 ] ] -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 71 24 from from IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 71 25 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 71 26 data datum NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 71 27 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 72 1 Here here RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 72 2 we -PRON- PRP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 72 3 use use VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 72 4 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 72 5 simple simple JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 72 6 method method NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 72 7 based base VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 72 8 on on IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 72 9 fitting fit VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 72 10 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 72 11 incidence incidence NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 72 12 data data NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 72 13 growth growth NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 72 14 rate rate NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 72 15 by by IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 72 16 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 72 17 distribution distribution NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 72 18 with with IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 72 19 gaussian gaussian JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 72 20 shape shape NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 72 21 to to TO cord-201898-d1vbnjff 72 22 determine determine VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 72 23 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 72 24 behaviour behaviour NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 72 25 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 72 26 R R NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 72 27 i i NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 72 28 ( ( -LRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 72 29 t t NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 72 30 ) ) -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 72 31 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 73 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 73 2 must must MD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 73 3 be be VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 73 4 mentioned mention VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 73 5 however however RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 73 6 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 73 7 that that WDT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 73 8 reported report VBD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 73 9 data datum NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 73 10 has have VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 73 11 an an DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 73 12 inherent inherent JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 73 13 delay delay NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 73 14 as as IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 73 15 compared compare VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 73 16 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 73 17 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 73 18 instantaneous instantaneous JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 73 19 population population NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 73 20 numbers number NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 73 21 that that WDT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 73 22 are be VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 73 23 required require VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 73 24 for for IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 73 25 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 73 26 estimation estimation NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 73 27 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 73 28 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 73 29 actual actual JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 73 30 value value NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 73 31 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 74 1 In in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 74 2 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 74 3 SIR SIR NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 74 4 -type -type : cord-201898-d1vbnjff 74 5 models model NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 74 6 or or CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 74 7 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 74 8 simple simple JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 74 9 extensions extension NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 74 10 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 74 11 such such JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 74 12 as as IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 74 13 one one CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 74 14 described describe VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 74 15 above above IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 74 16 R r NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 74 17 i i NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 74 18 ( ( -LRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 74 19 t t NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 74 20 ) ) -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 74 21 can can MD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 74 22 be be VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 74 23 expressed express VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 74 24 as as IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 74 25 In in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 74 26 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 74 27 initial initial JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 74 28 stages stage NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 74 29 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 74 30 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 74 31 infection infection NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 74 32 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 74 33 S(t S(t NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 74 34 ) ) -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 74 35 ∼ ∼ NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 74 36 N N NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 74 37 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 74 38 R r NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 74 39 i i NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 74 40 = = SYM cord-201898-d1vbnjff 74 41 β β NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 74 42 γ γ NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 74 43 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 74 44 since since IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 74 45 ( ( -LRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 74 46 γ γ NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 74 47 δ δ NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 74 48 ) ) -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 74 49 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 1 The the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 2 R r NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 3 i i NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 4 ( ( -LRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 5 t t NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 7 value value NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 8 can can MD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 9 be be VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 10 estimated estimate VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 11 using use VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 12 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 13 initial initial JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 14 doubling double VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 15 time time NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 16 T T NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 17 d d NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 18 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 19 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 20 number number NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 21 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 22 infections infection NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 23 [ [ -LRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 24 20 20 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 25 ] ] -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 26 _SP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 27 The the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 28 T t NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 29 d d NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 30 value value NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 31 can can MD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 32 be be VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 33 determined determine VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 34 by by IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 35 fitting fit VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 36 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 37 reported report VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 38 growth growth NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 39 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 40 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 41 cases case NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 42 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 43 infection infection NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 44 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 45 which which WDT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 46 shows show VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 47 an an DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 48 exponential exponential JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 49 growth growth NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 50 at at IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 51 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 52 beginning beginning NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 53 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 54 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 55 epidemic epidemic NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 56 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 57 where where WRB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 58 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 59 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 60 daily daily JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 61 growth growth NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 62 rate rate NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 63 r(t r(t NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 64 ) ) -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 65 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 66 determined determine VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 67 from from IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 68 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 69 data datum NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 70 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 71 reported report VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 72 cases case NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 73 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 74 infections infection NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 75 75 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 76 1 At at IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 76 2 smaller small JJR cord-201898-d1vbnjff 76 3 values value NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 76 4 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 76 5 The the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 76 6 values value NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 76 7 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 76 8 r(t r(t NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 76 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 76 10 are be VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 76 11 extracted extract VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 76 12 from from IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 76 13 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 76 14 reported report VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 76 15 data datum NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 76 16 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 76 17 daily daily JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 76 18 growth growth NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 76 19 rate rate NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 76 20 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 76 21 infections infection NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 76 22 starting start VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 76 23 from from IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 76 24 14 14 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 76 25 th th DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 76 26 March March NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 76 27 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 76 28 28 28 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 76 29 th th XX cord-201898-d1vbnjff 76 30 May May NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 76 31 ( ( -LRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 76 32 day day NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 76 33 76 76 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 76 34 ) ) -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 76 35 with with IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 76 36 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 76 37 9-day 9-day JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 76 38 moving move VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 76 39 average average NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 76 40 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 77 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 77 2 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 77 3 fitted fit VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 77 4 with with IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 77 5 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 77 6 function function NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 77 7 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 77 8 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 77 9 following follow VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 77 10 form form NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 77 11 where where WRB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 77 12 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 77 13 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 77 14 b b NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 77 15 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 77 16 σ σ NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 77 17 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 77 18 t t NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 77 19 0 0 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 77 20 are be VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 77 21 fit fit JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 77 22 parameters parameter NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 77 23 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 78 1 These these DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 78 2 parameters parameter NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 78 3 are be VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 78 4 determined determine VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 78 5 from from IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 78 6 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 78 7 best good JJS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 78 8 fit fit JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 78 9 approach approach NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 78 10 through through IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 78 11 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 78 12 local local JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 78 13 minimization minimization NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 78 14 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 78 15 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 78 16 sum sum NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 78 17 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 78 18 squares square NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 78 19 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 78 20 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 78 21 error error NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 78 22 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 79 1 The the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 79 2 resulting result VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 79 3 fit fit NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 79 4 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 79 5 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 79 6 daily daily JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 79 7 growth growth NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 79 8 rate rate NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 79 9 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 79 10 shown show VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 79 11 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 79 12 Fig Fig NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 79 13 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 79 14 _SP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 80 1 1a 1a LS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 80 2 along along IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 80 3 with with IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 80 4 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 80 5 band band NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 80 6 with with IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 80 7 standard standard JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 80 8 error error NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 80 9 on on IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 80 10 fit fit JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 80 11 parameters parameter NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 80 12 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 81 1 In in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 81 2 addition addition NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 81 3 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 81 4 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 81 5 projections projection NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 81 6 for for IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 81 7 next next JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 81 8 days day NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 81 9 after after IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 81 10 28 28 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 81 11 th th XX cord-201898-d1vbnjff 81 12 May May MD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 81 13 are be VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 81 14 also also RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 81 15 shown show VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 81 16 for for IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 81 17 various various JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 81 18 probable probable JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 81 19 scenarios scenario NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 81 20 by by IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 81 21 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 81 22 straight straight JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 81 23 lines line NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 81 24 that that WDT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 81 25 are be VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 81 26 used use VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 81 27 for for IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 81 28 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 81 29 extrapolations extrapolation NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 81 30 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 81 31 infection infection NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 81 32 growth growth NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 81 33 rate rate NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 81 34 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 82 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 82 2 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 82 3 seen see VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 82 4 from from IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 82 5 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 82 6 figure figure NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 82 7 that that IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 82 8 India India NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 82 9 had have VBD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 82 10 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 82 11 peak peak JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 82 12 daily daily JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 82 13 growth growth NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 82 14 rate rate NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 82 15 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 82 16 ∼ ∼ CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 82 17 20 20 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 82 18 % % NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 82 19 at at IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 82 20 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 82 21 beginning beginning NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 82 22 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 82 23 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 82 24 epidemic epidemic NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 82 25 which which WDT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 82 26 reduced reduce VBD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 82 27 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 82 28 ∼ ∼ NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 82 29 5 5 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 82 30 % % NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 82 31 after after IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 82 32 one one CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 82 33 month month NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 82 34 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 82 35 imposition imposition NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 82 36 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 82 37 lock lock NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 82 38 - - HYPH cord-201898-d1vbnjff 82 39 down down NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 82 40 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 83 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 83 2 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 83 3 to to TO cord-201898-d1vbnjff 83 4 be be VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 83 5 noted note VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 83 6 that that IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 83 7 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 83 8 nationwide nationwide JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 83 9 lock lock NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 83 10 - - HYPH cord-201898-d1vbnjff 83 11 down down NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 83 12 imposed impose VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 83 13 on on IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 83 14 25 25 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 83 15 th th XX cord-201898-d1vbnjff 83 16 March March NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 83 17 has have VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 83 18 been be VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 83 19 continually continually RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 83 20 relaxed relax VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 83 21 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 83 22 phased phase VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 83 23 manner manner NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 83 24 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 83 25 exists exist VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 83 26 now now RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 83 27 only only RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 83 28 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 83 29 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 83 30 containment containment NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 83 31 zones zone NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 83 32 from from IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 83 33 1 1 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 83 34 st st NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 83 35 June June NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 83 36 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 84 1 However however RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 84 2 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 84 3 after after IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 84 4 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 84 5 decrease decrease NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 84 6 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 84 7 growth growth NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 84 8 rate rate NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 84 9 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 84 10 infections infection NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 84 11 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 84 12 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 84 13 initial initial JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 84 14 phase phase NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 84 15 following follow VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 84 16 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 84 17 lock lock NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 84 18 - - HYPH cord-201898-d1vbnjff 84 19 down down NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 84 20 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 84 21 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 84 22 cases case NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 84 23 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 84 24 infection infection NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 84 25 have have VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 84 26 continued continue VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 84 27 to to TO cord-201898-d1vbnjff 84 28 grow grow VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 84 29 at at IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 84 30 somewhat somewhat RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 84 31 constant constant JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 84 32 rate rate NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 84 33 for for IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 84 34 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 84 35 while while NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 84 36 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 85 1 The the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 85 2 extrapolations extrapolation NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 85 3 for for IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 85 4 next next JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 85 5 30 30 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 85 6 days day NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 85 7 that that WDT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 85 8 define define VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 85 9 various various JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 85 10 probable probable JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 85 11 scenarios scenario NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 85 12 are be VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 85 13 approximated approximate VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 85 14 as as IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 85 15 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 85 16 linear linear JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 85 17 reduction reduction NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 85 18 or or CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 85 19 increase increase NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 85 20 from from IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 85 21 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 85 22 present present JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 85 23 value value NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 85 24 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 85 25 infection infection NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 85 26 growth growth NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 85 27 rate rate NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 85 28 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 86 1 The the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 86 2 quantity quantity NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 86 3 r(t r(t NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 86 4 ) ) -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 86 5 determined determine VBD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 86 6 from from IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 86 7 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 86 8 data data NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 86 9 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 86 10 also also RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 86 11 used use VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 86 12 to to TO cord-201898-d1vbnjff 86 13 study study VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 86 14 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 86 15 evolution evolution NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 86 16 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 86 17 R r NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 86 18 i i NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 86 19 ( ( -LRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 86 20 t t NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 86 21 ) ) -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 86 22 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 86 23 time time NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 86 24 as as IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 86 25 shown show VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 86 26 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 86 27 Fig Fig NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 86 28 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 87 1 1b 1b LS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 87 2 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 88 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 88 2 must must MD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 88 3 be be VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 88 4 noted note VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 88 5 that that IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 88 6 R r NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 88 7 i i PRP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 88 8 ( ( -LRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 88 9 t t NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 88 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 88 11 also also RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 88 12 depends depend VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 88 13 on on IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 88 14 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 88 15 period period NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 88 16 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 88 17 infection infection NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 88 18 for for IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 88 19 which which WDT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 88 20 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 88 21 we -PRON- PRP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 88 22 present present VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 88 23 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 88 24 result result NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 88 25 for for IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 88 26 values value NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 88 27 G g NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 88 28 = = SYM cord-201898-d1vbnjff 88 29 12.7 12.7 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 88 30 days day NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 88 31 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 88 32 G g NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 88 33 = = SYM cord-201898-d1vbnjff 88 34 20 20 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 88 35 days day NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 88 36 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 89 1 The the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 89 2 R r NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 89 3 i i NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 89 4 ( ( -LRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 89 5 t t NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 89 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 89 7 values value NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 89 8 have have VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 89 9 been be VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 89 10 extracted extract VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 89 11 from from IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 89 12 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 89 13 r(t r(t NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 89 14 ) ) -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 89 15 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 89 16 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 89 17 reported report VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 89 18 cases case NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 89 19 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 89 20 also also RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 89 21 obtained obtain VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 89 22 through through IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 89 23 fitted fit VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 89 24 value value NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 89 25 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 89 26 r(t r(t NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 89 27 ) ) -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 89 28 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 90 1 These these DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 90 2 values value NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 90 3 are be VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 90 4 seen see VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 90 5 to to TO cord-201898-d1vbnjff 90 6 decrease decrease VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 90 7 from from IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 90 8 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 90 9 peak peak NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 90 10 value value NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 90 11 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 90 12 ∼ ∼ NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 90 13 4 4 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 90 14 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 90 15 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 90 16 value value NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 90 17 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 90 18 ∼ ∼ NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 90 19 1.6 1.6 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 90 20 for for IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 90 21 G g NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 90 22 = = SYM cord-201898-d1vbnjff 90 23 12.7 12.7 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 90 24 days day NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 90 25 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 90 26 which which WDT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 90 27 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 90 28 still still RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 90 29 substantially substantially RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 90 30 higher high JJR cord-201898-d1vbnjff 90 31 than than IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 90 32 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 90 33 value value NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 90 34 1 1 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 90 35 that that WDT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 90 36 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 90 37 required require VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 90 38 for for IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 90 39 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 90 40 spontaneous spontaneous JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 90 41 disappearance disappearance NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 90 42 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 90 43 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 90 44 infection infection NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 90 45 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 91 1 The the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 91 2 T t NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 91 3 d d NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 91 4 ( ( -LRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 91 5 t t NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 91 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 91 7 value value NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 91 8 that that WDT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 91 9 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 91 10 directly directly RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 91 11 extracted extract VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 91 12 from from IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 91 13 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 91 14 data datum NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 91 15 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 91 16 also also RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 91 17 from from IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 91 18 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 91 19 fit fit NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 91 20 shows show VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 91 21 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 91 22 constant constant JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 91 23 value value NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 91 24 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 91 25 ∼ ∼ NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 91 26 16 16 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 91 27 days day NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 91 28 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 92 1 The the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 92 2 value value NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 92 3 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 92 4 R r NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 92 5 i i NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 92 6 ( ( -LRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 92 7 t t NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 92 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 92 9 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 92 10 T T NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 92 11 d d NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 92 12 values value NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 92 13 are be VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 92 14 also also RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 92 15 shown show VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 92 16 for for IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 92 17 one one CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 92 18 probable probable JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 92 19 scenario scenario NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 92 20 where where WRB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 92 21 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 92 22 rate rate NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 92 23 reduces reduce VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 92 24 by by IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 92 25 one one CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 92 26 - - HYPH cord-201898-d1vbnjff 92 27 half half NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 92 28 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 92 29 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 92 30 present present JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 92 31 value value NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 92 32 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 92 33 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 92 34 linear linear JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 92 35 manner manner NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 92 36 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 93 1 This this DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 93 2 shows show VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 93 3 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 93 4 moderate moderate JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 93 5 reduction reduction NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 93 6 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 93 7 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 93 8 value value NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 93 9 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 93 10 R r NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 93 11 i i NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 93 12 ( ( -LRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 93 13 t t NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 93 14 ) ) -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 93 15 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 94 1 In in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 94 2 addition addition NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 94 3 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 94 4 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 94 5 rate rate NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 94 6 decrease decrease NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 94 7 leads lead VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 94 8 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 94 9 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 94 10 significant significant JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 94 11 increase increase NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 94 12 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 94 13 T t NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 94 14 d d NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 94 15 values value NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 94 16 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 95 1 The the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 95 2 SEIRD SEIRD NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 95 3 model model NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 95 4 calculations calculation NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 95 5 using use VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 95 6 eqn eqn NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 95 7 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 95 8 1 1 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 95 9 have have VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 95 10 been be VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 95 11 performed perform VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 95 12 to to TO cord-201898-d1vbnjff 95 13 make make VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 95 14 comparisons comparison NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 95 15 with with IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 95 16 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 95 17 data datum NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 95 18 aggregated aggregate VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 95 19 for for IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 95 20 India India NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 95 21 using use VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 95 22 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 95 23 reported report VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 95 24 cases case NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 95 25 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 95 26 infected infect VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 95 27 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 95 28 recovered recover VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 95 29 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 95 30 dead dead JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 95 31 populations population NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 95 32 up up IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 95 33 to to TO cord-201898-d1vbnjff 95 34 28 28 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 95 35 th th XX cord-201898-d1vbnjff 95 36 May May NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 95 37 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 95 38 to to TO cord-201898-d1vbnjff 95 39 make make VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 95 40 forecasts forecast NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 95 41 about about IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 95 42 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 95 43 future future JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 95 44 scenarios scenario NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 95 45 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 96 1 The the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 96 2 contact contact NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 96 3 rate rate NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 96 4 parameter parameter NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 96 5 β(t β(t NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 96 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 96 7 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 96 8 taken take VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 96 9 to to TO cord-201898-d1vbnjff 96 10 be be VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 96 11 time time NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 96 12 dependent dependent JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 96 13 with with IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 96 14 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 96 15 parameters parameter NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 96 16 β β XX cord-201898-d1vbnjff 96 17 0 0 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 96 18 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 96 19 β β NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 96 20 0c 0c CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 96 21 fixed fix VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 96 22 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 96 23 accordance accordance NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 96 24 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 96 25 equation equation NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 96 26 6 6 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 96 27 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 97 1 The the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 97 2 parameter parameter NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 97 3 A a NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 97 4 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 97 5 taken take VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 97 6 as as IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 97 7 5.1 5.1 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 97 8 days day NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 97 9 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 97 10 which which WDT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 97 11 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 97 12 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 97 13 mean mean JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 97 14 incubation incubation NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 97 15 period period NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 97 16 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 97 17 bit bit NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 97 18 larger large JJR cord-201898-d1vbnjff 97 19 than than IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 97 20 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 97 21 latency latency NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 97 22 period period NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 97 23 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 98 1 The the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 98 2 value value NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 98 3 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 98 4 parameter parameter NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 98 5 δ δ NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 98 6 = = SYM cord-201898-d1vbnjff 98 7 0.025 0.025 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 98 8 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 98 9 taken take VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 98 10 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 98 11 which which WDT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 98 12 determines determine VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 98 13 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 98 14 death death NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 98 15 population population NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 98 16 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 98 17 very very RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 98 18 weakly weakly RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 98 19 affects affect VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 98 20 populations population NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 98 21 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 98 22 other other JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 98 23 compartments compartment NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 98 24 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 99 1 The the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 99 2 parameter parameter NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 99 3 γ(t γ(t NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 99 4 ) ) -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 99 5 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 99 6 taken take VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 99 7 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 99 8 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 99 9 following follow VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 99 10 form form NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 99 11 The the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 99 12 time time NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 99 13 variation variation NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 99 14 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 99 15 this this DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 99 16 parameter parameter NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 99 17 with with IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 99 18 γ γ NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 99 19 0 0 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 99 20 = = SYM cord-201898-d1vbnjff 99 21 0.079 0.079 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 99 22 corresponding correspond VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 99 23 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 99 24 period period NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 99 25 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 99 26 12.7 12.7 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 99 27 days day NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 99 28 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 99 29 κ=0.01 κ=0.01 NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 99 30 takes take VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 99 31 into into IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 99 32 account account NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 99 33 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 99 34 larger large JJR cord-201898-d1vbnjff 99 35 value value NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 99 36 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 99 37 G G NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 99 38 ≈ ≈ NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 99 39 26 26 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 99 40 days day NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 99 41 that that WDT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 99 42 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 99 43 needed need VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 99 44 to to TO cord-201898-d1vbnjff 99 45 explain explain VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 99 46 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 99 47 behaviour behaviour NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 99 48 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 99 49 data datum NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 99 50 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 99 51 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 99 52 initial initial JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 99 53 stages stage NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 99 54 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 100 1 As as IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 100 2 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 100 3 time time NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 100 4 elapses elapse VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 100 5 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 100 6 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 100 7 reduction reduction NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 100 8 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 100 9 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 100 10 recovery recovery NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 100 11 period period NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 100 12 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 100 13 seen see VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 100 14 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 100 15 γ γ NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 100 16 approaches approach VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 100 17 γ γ NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 100 18 0 0 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 100 19 value value NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 100 20 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 101 1 The the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 101 2 model model NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 101 3 was be VBD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 101 4 applied apply VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 101 5 from from IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 101 6 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 101 7 day day NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 101 8 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 101 9 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 101 10 epidemic epidemic NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 101 11 when when WRB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 101 12 cumulative cumulative JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 101 13 number number NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 101 14 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 101 15 infections infection NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 101 16 were be VBD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 101 17 ∼ ∼ NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 101 18 100 100 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 101 19 as as IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 101 20 on on IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 101 21 14 14 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 101 22 th th DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 101 23 March March NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 101 24 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 102 1 The the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 102 2 fraction fraction NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 102 3 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 102 4 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 102 5 population population NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 102 6 at at IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 102 7 day day NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 102 8 1 1 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 102 9 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 102 10 compartments compartment NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 102 11 are be VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 102 12 set set VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 102 13 as as IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 102 14 follows follow VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 102 15 : : : cord-201898-d1vbnjff 102 16 I i NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 102 17 = = SYM cord-201898-d1vbnjff 102 18 88/1.4e7 88/1.4e7 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 102 19 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 103 1 R r NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 104 1 = = SYM cord-201898-d1vbnjff 104 2 10/1.4e7 10/1.4e7 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 104 3 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 104 4 D d NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 105 1 = = SYM cord-201898-d1vbnjff 105 2 2/1.4e7 2/1.4e7 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 105 3 as as IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 105 4 provided provide VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 105 5 by by IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 105 6 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 105 7 reported report VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 105 8 data datum NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 105 9 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 106 1 Other other JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 106 2 initial initial JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 106 3 conditions condition NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 106 4 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 106 5 defined define VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 106 6 by by IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 106 7 α α NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 106 8 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 106 9 are be VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 106 10 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 106 11 unknowns unknown NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 106 12 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 106 13 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 106 14 model model NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 106 15 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 107 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 107 2 take take VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 107 3 α=0.1 α=0.1 NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 107 4 which which WDT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 107 5 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 107 6 similar similar JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 107 7 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 107 8 value value NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 107 9 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 107 10 α=0.08 α=0.08 PRP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 107 11 extracted extract VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 107 12 for for IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 107 13 European european JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 107 14 countries country NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 107 15 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 107 16 Ref Ref NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 107 17 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 108 1 [ [ -LRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 108 2 26 26 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 108 3 ] ] -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 108 4 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 109 1 The the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 109 2 parameter parameter NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 109 3 = = SYM cord-201898-d1vbnjff 109 4 3.2A 3.2a NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 109 5 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 109 6 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 109 7 important important JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 109 8 for for IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 109 9 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 109 10 initial initial JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 109 11 description description NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 109 12 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 109 13 data datum NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 109 14 but but CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 109 15 it -PRON- PRP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 109 16 does do VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 109 17 not not RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 109 18 affect affect VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 109 19 long long JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 109 20 time time NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 109 21 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 109 22 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 109 23 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 109 24 epidemic epidemic NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 109 25 as as IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 109 26 predicted predict VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 109 27 by by IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 109 28 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 109 29 model model NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 109 30 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 110 1 The the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 110 2 results result NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 110 3 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 110 4 calculations calculation NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 110 5 with with IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 110 6 these these DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 110 7 parameters parameter NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 110 8 that that WDT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 110 9 use use VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 110 10 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 110 11 time time NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 110 12 varying vary VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 110 13 β(t β(t NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 110 14 ) ) -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 110 15 parameter parameter NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 110 16 as as IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 110 17 determined determine VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 110 18 above above IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 110 19 provide provide VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 110 20 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 110 21 good good JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 110 22 description description NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 110 23 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 110 24 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 110 25 evolution evolution NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 110 26 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 110 27 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 110 28 case case NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 110 29 numbers number NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 110 30 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 110 31 reported report VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 110 32 infected infect VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 110 33 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 110 34 recovered recover VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 110 35 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 110 36 death death NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 110 37 population population NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 110 38 as as IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 110 39 shown show VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 110 40 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 110 41 Fig Fig NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 110 42 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 111 1 2a 2a LS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 111 2 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 112 1 In in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 112 2 addition addition NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 112 3 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 112 4 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 112 5 calculations calculation NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 112 6 have have VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 112 7 also also RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 112 8 been be VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 112 9 performed perform VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 112 10 for for IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 112 11 constant constant JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 112 12 β β NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 112 13 = = SYM cord-201898-d1vbnjff 112 14 0.167 0.167 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 112 15 value value NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 112 16 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 112 17 which which WDT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 112 18 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 112 19 obtained obtain VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 112 20 from from IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 112 21 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 112 22 best good JJS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 112 23 fit fit NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 112 24 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 112 25 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 112 26 exponential exponential JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 112 27 distribution distribution NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 112 28 according accord VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 112 29 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 112 30 Eqn Eqn NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 112 31 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 113 1 4 4 LS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 113 2 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 114 1 While while IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 114 2 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 114 3 model model NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 114 4 results result NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 114 5 as as IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 114 6 shown show VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 114 7 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 114 8 Fig Fig NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 114 9 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 115 1 2b 2b NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 115 2 provide provide VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 115 3 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 115 4 good good JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 115 5 description description NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 115 6 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 115 7 initial initial JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 115 8 days day NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 115 9 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 115 10 it -PRON- PRP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 115 11 grossly grossly RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 115 12 over over RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 115 13 - - HYPH cord-201898-d1vbnjff 115 14 predicts predict VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 115 15 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 115 16 case case NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 115 17 numbers number NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 115 18 as as IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 115 19 compared compare VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 115 20 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 115 21 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 115 22 reported report VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 115 23 cases case NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 115 24 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 116 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 116 2 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 116 3 quite quite RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 116 4 evident evident JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 116 5 from from IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 116 6 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 116 7 figure figure NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 116 8 that that WDT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 116 9 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 116 10 time time NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 116 11 dependence dependence NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 116 12 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 116 13 β(t β(t NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 116 14 ) ) -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 116 15 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 116 16 necessary necessary JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 116 17 to to TO cord-201898-d1vbnjff 116 18 understand understand VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 116 19 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 116 20 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 116 21 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 116 22 infection infection NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 116 23 spread spread VBD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 116 24 for for IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 116 25 cases case NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 116 26 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 116 27 India India NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 116 28 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 117 1 The the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 117 2 period period NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 117 3 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 117 4 infection infection NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 117 5 related relate VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 117 6 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 117 7 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 117 8 recovery recovery NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 117 9 time time NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 117 10 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 117 11 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 117 12 infected infect VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 117 13 individuals individual NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 117 14 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 117 15 also also RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 117 16 taken take VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 117 17 with with IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 117 18 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 117 19 time time NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 117 20 variation variation NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 117 21 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 118 1 This this DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 118 2 parameter parameter NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 118 3 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 118 4 primarily primarily RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 118 5 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 118 6 characteristic characteristic NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 118 7 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 118 8 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 118 9 epidemic epidemic NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 118 10 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 118 11 it -PRON- PRP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 118 12 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 118 13 only only RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 118 14 mildly mildly RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 118 15 dependent dependent JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 118 16 on on IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 118 17 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 118 18 responses response NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 118 19 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 118 20 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 118 21 health health NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 118 22 - - HYPH cord-201898-d1vbnjff 118 23 care care NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 118 24 systems system NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 118 25 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 119 1 In in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 119 2 absence absence NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 119 3 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 119 4 any any DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 119 5 effective effective JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 119 6 therapy therapy NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 119 7 or or CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 119 8 cure cure NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 119 9 that that WDT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 119 10 may may MD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 119 11 shorten shorten VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 119 12 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 119 13 length length NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 119 14 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 119 15 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 119 16 infection infection NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 119 17 it -PRON- PRP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 119 18 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 119 19 relatively relatively RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 119 20 well well RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 119 21 known known JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 119 22 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 119 23 it -PRON- PRP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 119 24 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 119 25 taken take VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 119 26 as as IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 119 27 ∼ ∼ NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 119 28 12.7 12.7 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 119 29 days day NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 119 30 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 120 1 However however RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 120 2 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 120 3 larger large JJR cord-201898-d1vbnjff 120 4 value value NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 120 5 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 120 6 required require VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 120 7 to to TO cord-201898-d1vbnjff 120 8 explain explain VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 120 9 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 120 10 reported report VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 120 11 data datum NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 120 12 both both CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 120 13 with with IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 120 14 constant constant JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 120 15 β β NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 120 16 - - HYPH cord-201898-d1vbnjff 120 17 value value NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 120 18 [ [ -LRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 120 19 17 17 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 120 20 ] ] -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 120 21 or or CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 120 22 even even RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 120 23 when when WRB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 120 24 time time NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 120 25 variation variation NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 120 26 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 120 27 β β NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 120 28 - - HYPH cord-201898-d1vbnjff 120 29 value value NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 120 30 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 120 31 taken take VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 120 32 into into IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 120 33 account account NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 120 34 as as IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 120 35 5 5 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 120 36 it -PRON- PRP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 120 37 has have VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 120 38 been be VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 120 39 found find VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 120 40 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 120 41 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 120 42 present present JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 120 43 study study NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 120 44 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 121 1 The the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 121 2 recovery recovery NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 121 3 rates rate NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 121 4 are be VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 121 5 continually continually RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 121 6 improving improve VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 121 7 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 121 8 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 121 9 feature feature NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 121 10 also also RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 121 11 reflected reflect VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 121 12 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 121 13 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 121 14 reported report VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 121 15 recovery recovery NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 121 16 data datum NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 121 17 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 122 1 Therefore therefore RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 122 2 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 122 3 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 122 4 time time NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 122 5 dependence dependence NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 122 6 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 122 7 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 122 8 parameter parameter NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 122 9 γ(t γ(t NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 122 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 122 11 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 122 12 introduced introduce VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 122 13 to to TO cord-201898-d1vbnjff 122 14 account account VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 122 15 for for IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 122 16 this this DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 122 17 observation observation NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 122 18 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 123 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 123 2 show show VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 123 3 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 123 4 calculations calculation NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 123 5 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 123 6 Fig Fig NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 123 7 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 123 8 3 3 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 124 1 To to TO cord-201898-d1vbnjff 124 2 study study VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 124 3 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 124 4 role role NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 124 5 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 124 6 interventions intervention NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 124 7 we -PRON- PRP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 124 8 perform perform VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 124 9 calculations calculation NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 124 10 with with IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 124 11 different different JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 124 12 values value NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 124 13 for for IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 124 14 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 124 15 contact contact NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 124 16 rate rate NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 124 17 β β NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 124 18 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 125 1 The the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 125 2 interventions intervention NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 125 3 have have VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 125 4 led lead VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 125 5 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 125 6 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 125 7 decrease decrease NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 125 8 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 125 9 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 125 10 daily daily JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 125 11 growth growth NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 125 12 rate rate NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 125 13 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 125 14 infections infection NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 125 15 which which WDT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 125 16 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 125 17 intimately intimately RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 125 18 related relate VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 125 19 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 125 20 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 125 21 β β XX cord-201898-d1vbnjff 125 22 value value NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 125 23 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 126 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 126 2 use use VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 126 3 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 126 4 constant constant JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 126 5 values value NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 126 6 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 126 7 β β NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 126 8 = = SYM cord-201898-d1vbnjff 126 9 0.252 0.252 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 126 10 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 126 11 0.125 0.125 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 126 12 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 126 13 which which WDT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 126 14 correspond correspond VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 126 15 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 126 16 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 126 17 peak peak NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 126 18 rate rate NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 126 19 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 126 20 growth growth NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 126 21 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 126 22 half half PDT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 126 23 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 126 24 value value NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 126 25 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 127 1 The the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 127 2 peak peak NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 127 3 β β NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 127 4 - - HYPH cord-201898-d1vbnjff 127 5 rate rate NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 127 6 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 127 7 expected expect VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 127 8 to to TO cord-201898-d1vbnjff 127 9 have have VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 127 10 prevailed prevail VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 127 11 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 127 12 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 127 13 early early JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 127 14 stages stage NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 127 15 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 127 16 infection infection NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 127 17 spread spread VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 127 18 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 127 19 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 127 20 absence absence NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 127 21 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 127 22 any any DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 127 23 interventions intervention NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 127 24 such such JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 127 25 as as IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 127 26 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 127 27 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 127 28 lock lock NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 127 29 - - HYPH cord-201898-d1vbnjff 127 30 down down NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 127 31 or or CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 127 32 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 127 33 conditions condition NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 127 34 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 127 35 no no DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 127 36 enhanced enhanced JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 127 37 public public JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 127 38 awareness awareness NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 127 39 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 128 1 In in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 128 2 addition addition NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 128 3 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 128 4 we -PRON- PRP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 128 5 also also RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 128 6 give give VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 128 7 results result NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 128 8 obtained obtain VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 128 9 from from IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 128 10 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 128 11 β β NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 128 12 = = SYM cord-201898-d1vbnjff 128 13 0.167 0.167 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 128 14 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 128 15 β β NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 128 16 = = SYM cord-201898-d1vbnjff 128 17 0.01 0.01 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 128 18 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 128 19 time time NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 128 20 varying vary VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 128 21 β β NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 128 22 - - HYPH cord-201898-d1vbnjff 128 23 value value NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 128 24 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 129 1 The the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 129 2 infected infected JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 129 3 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 129 4 recovered recover VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 129 5 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 129 6 death death NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 129 7 populations population NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 129 8 for for IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 129 9 these these DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 129 10 β β NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 129 11 - - HYPH cord-201898-d1vbnjff 129 12 values value NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 129 13 are be VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 129 14 shown show VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 129 15 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 129 16 Fig Fig NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 129 17 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 129 18 _SP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 130 1 4a 4a LS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 130 2 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 130 3 Fig Fig NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 130 4 . . NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 130 5 4b 4b CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 130 6 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 130 7 Fig Fig NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 130 8 . . NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 130 9 4c 4c CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 130 10 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 130 11 respectively respectively RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 130 12 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 131 1 From from IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 131 2 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 131 3 comparison comparison NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 131 4 it -PRON- PRP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 131 5 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 131 6 evident evident JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 131 7 that that IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 131 8 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 131 9 lock lock NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 131 10 - - HYPH cord-201898-d1vbnjff 131 11 down down NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 131 12 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 131 13 other other JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 131 14 interventions intervention NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 131 15 have have VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 131 16 prevented prevent VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 131 17 any any DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 131 18 large large JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 131 19 spread spread NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 131 20 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 131 21 infections infection NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 131 22 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 131 23 kept keep VBD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 131 24 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 131 25 death death NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 131 26 numbers number NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 131 27 particularly particularly RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 131 28 low low JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 131 29 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 132 1 These these DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 132 2 interventions intervention NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 132 3 could could MD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 132 4 have have VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 132 5 prevented prevent VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 132 6 around around IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 132 7 4 4 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 132 8 million million CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 132 9 peak peak NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 132 10 infections infection NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 132 11 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 132 12 200,000 200,000 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 132 13 deaths death NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 132 14 at at IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 132 15 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 132 16 100 100 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 132 17 day day NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 132 18 mark mark NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 132 19 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 133 1 The the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 133 2 lower low JJR cord-201898-d1vbnjff 133 3 growth growth NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 133 4 rate rate NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 133 5 also also RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 133 6 means mean VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 133 7 that that IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 133 8 number number NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 133 9 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 133 10 active active JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 133 11 infections infection NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 133 12 are be VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 133 13 low low JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 133 14 at at IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 133 15 any any DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 133 16 instant instant NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 133 17 which which WDT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 133 18 helps help VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 133 19 to to TO cord-201898-d1vbnjff 133 20 optimize optimize VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 133 21 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 133 22 response response NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 133 23 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 133 24 health health NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 133 25 care care NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 133 26 systems system NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 133 27 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 134 1 The the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 134 2 rate rate NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 134 3 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 134 4 infections infection NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 134 5 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 134 6 India India NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 134 7 have have VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 134 8 remained remain VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 134 9 approximately approximately RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 134 10 constant constant JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 134 11 after after IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 134 12 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 134 13 initial initial JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 134 14 reduction reduction NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 134 15 for for IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 134 16 last last JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 134 17 several several JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 134 18 days day NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 134 19 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 135 1 After after IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 135 2 an an DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 135 3 extended extended JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 135 4 lock lock NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 135 5 - - HYPH cord-201898-d1vbnjff 135 6 down down NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 135 7 slowly slowly RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 135 8 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 135 9 restrictions restriction NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 135 10 have have VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 135 11 been be VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 135 12 loosened loosen VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 135 13 up up RP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 135 14 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 136 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 136 2 extrapolate extrapolate VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 136 3 values value NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 136 4 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 136 5 β(t β(t NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 136 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 136 7 to to TO cord-201898-d1vbnjff 136 8 predict predict VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 136 9 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 136 10 outcomes outcome NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 136 11 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 136 12 various various JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 136 13 probable probable JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 136 14 scenarios scenario NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 136 15 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 137 1 The the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 137 2 β(t β(t NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 137 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 137 4 values value NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 137 5 corresponding correspond VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 137 6 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 137 7 growth growth NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 137 8 rate rate NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 137 9 value value NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 137 10 r r NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 137 11 pr pr NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 137 12 as as IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 137 13 on on IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 137 14 28 28 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 138 1 th th DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 138 2 May May NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 138 3 are be VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 138 4 varied varied JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 138 5 so so IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 138 6 as as IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 138 7 to to TO cord-201898-d1vbnjff 138 8 attain attain VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 138 9 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 138 10 given give VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 138 11 value value NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 138 12 at at IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 138 13 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 138 14 end end NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 138 15 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 138 16 next next JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 138 17 30 30 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 138 18 days day NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 138 19 assuming assume VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 138 20 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 138 21 time time NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 138 22 variation variation NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 138 23 with with IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 138 24 constant constant JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 138 25 slope slope NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 138 26 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 139 1 These these DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 139 2 scenarios scenario NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 139 3 are be VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 139 4 named name VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 139 5 as as IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 139 6 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 139 7 best good JJS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 139 8 case case NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 139 9 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 139 10 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 139 11 optimistic optimistic JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 139 12 case case NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 139 13 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 139 14 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 139 15 most most RBS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 139 16 likely likely JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 139 17 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 139 18 current current JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 139 19 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 139 20 problematic problematic JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 139 21 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 139 22 alarming alarming JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 139 23 scenarios scenario NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 139 24 respectively respectively RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 139 25 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 140 1 The the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 140 2 time time NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 140 3 evolution evolution NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 140 4 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 140 5 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 140 6 epidemic epidemic NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 140 7 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 140 8 studied study VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 140 9 with with IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 140 10 these these DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 140 11 time time NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 140 12 variations variation NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 140 13 for for IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 140 14 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 140 15 future future NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 140 16 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 141 1 The the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 141 2 resulting result VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 141 3 predictions prediction NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 141 4 for for IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 141 5 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 141 6 populations population NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 141 7 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 141 8 infected infect VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 141 9 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 141 10 recovered recover VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 141 11 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 141 12 dead dead JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 141 13 are be VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 141 14 shown show VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 141 15 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 141 16 Fig Fig NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 141 17 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 142 1 5a 5a LS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 142 2 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 142 3 Fig Fig NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 142 4 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 143 1 5b 5b NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 143 2 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 143 3 Fig Fig NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 143 4 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 143 5 _SP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 143 6 5c 5c NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 143 7 respectively respectively RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 143 8 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 144 1 The the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 144 2 growth growth NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 144 3 rate rate NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 144 4 same same JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 144 5 as as IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 144 6 r r NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 144 7 pr pr NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 144 8 may may MD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 144 9 lead lead VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 144 10 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 144 11 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 144 12 high high JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 144 13 number number NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 144 14 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 144 15 total total JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 144 16 infections infection NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 144 17 ( ( -LRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 144 18 ∼ ∼ NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 144 19 8 8 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 144 20 million million CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 144 21 ) ) -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 144 22 with with IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 144 23 fatalities fatality NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 144 24 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 144 25 excess excess NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 144 26 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 144 27 300,000 300,000 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 144 28 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 145 1 In in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 145 2 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 145 3 scenario scenario NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 145 4 that that WDT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 145 5 we -PRON- PRP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 145 6 term term VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 145 7 as as IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 145 8 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 145 9 most most RBS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 145 10 likely likely JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 145 11 scenario scenario NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 145 12 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 145 13 we -PRON- PRP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 145 14 can can MD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 145 15 have have VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 145 16 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 145 17 total total NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 145 18 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 145 19 3.5 3.5 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 145 20 million million CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 145 21 infected infected JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 145 22 cases case NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 145 23 with with IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 145 24 almost almost RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 145 25 140,000 140,000 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 145 26 fatalities fatality NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 145 27 over over IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 145 28 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 145 29 course course NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 145 30 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 145 31 pandemic pandemic NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 145 32 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 146 1 This this DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 146 2 will will MD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 146 3 correspond correspond VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 146 4 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 146 5 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 146 6 In in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 146 7 this this DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 146 8 case case NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 146 9 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 146 10 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 146 11 death death NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 146 12 figures figure NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 146 13 can can MD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 146 14 be be VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 146 15 kept keep VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 146 16 substantially substantially RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 146 17 low low JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 146 18 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 146 19 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 146 20 range range NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 146 21 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 146 22 25,000 25,000 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 146 23 - - SYM cord-201898-d1vbnjff 146 24 50,000 50,000 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 146 25 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 147 1 In in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 147 2 contrast contrast NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 147 3 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 147 4 if if IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 147 5 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 147 6 rate rate NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 147 7 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 147 8 growth growth NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 147 9 were be VBD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 147 10 to to TO cord-201898-d1vbnjff 147 11 increase increase VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 147 12 from from IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 147 13 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 147 14 present present JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 147 15 values value NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 147 16 due due JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 147 17 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 147 18 pre pre VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 147 19 - - JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 147 20 mature mature JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 147 21 lifting lifting NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 147 22 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 147 23 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 147 24 lock lock NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 147 25 - - HYPH cord-201898-d1vbnjff 147 26 down down NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 147 27 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 147 28 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 147 29 affected affect VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 147 30 zones zone NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 147 31 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 147 32 other other JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 147 33 lapses lapse NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 147 34 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 147 35 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 147 36 death death NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 147 37 numbers number NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 147 38 can can MD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 147 39 be be VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 147 40 500,000 500,000 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 147 41 with with IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 147 42 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 147 43 rather rather RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 147 44 alarming alarming JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 147 45 number number NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 147 46 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 147 47 infected infected JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 147 48 individuals individual NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 147 49 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 147 50 short short JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 147 51 time time NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 147 52 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 148 1 Higher high JJR cord-201898-d1vbnjff 148 2 rates rate NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 148 3 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 148 4 growth growth NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 148 5 also also RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 148 6 mean mean VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 148 7 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 148 8 large large JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 148 9 number number NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 148 10 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 148 11 active active JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 148 12 infected infected JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 148 13 cases case NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 148 14 appearing appear VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 148 15 early early RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 148 16 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 148 17 that that DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 148 18 may may MD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 148 19 stretch stretch VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 148 20 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 148 21 health health NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 148 22 care care NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 148 23 systems system NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 148 24 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 148 25 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 148 26 brink brink NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 148 27 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 149 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 149 2 have have VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 149 3 made make VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 149 4 detailed detailed JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 149 5 comparison comparison NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 149 6 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 149 7 model model NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 149 8 predictions prediction NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 149 9 with with IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 149 10 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 149 11 real real JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 149 12 data datum NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 149 13 using use VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 149 14 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 149 15 important important JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 149 16 parameter parameter NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 149 17 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 149 18 contact contact NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 149 19 rate rate NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 149 20 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 149 21 infection infection NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 149 22 rate rate NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 149 23 derived derive VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 149 24 from from IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 149 25 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 149 26 data datum NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 149 27 itself -PRON- PRP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 149 28 from from IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 149 29 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 149 30 first first JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 149 31 principles principle NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 149 32 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 150 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 150 2 must must MD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 150 3 be be VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 150 4 noted note VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 150 5 that that IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 150 6 there there EX cord-201898-d1vbnjff 150 7 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 150 8 an an DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 150 9 inherent inherent JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 150 10 delay delay NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 150 11 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 150 12 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 150 13 reported report VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 150 14 rate rate NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 150 15 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 150 16 instantaneous instantaneous JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 150 17 rate rate NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 150 18 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 150 19 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 150 20 infection infection NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 150 21 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 151 1 In in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 151 2 addition addition NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 151 3 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 151 4 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 151 5 effect effect NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 151 6 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 151 7 any any DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 151 8 restrictive restrictive JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 151 9 measures measure NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 151 10 undertaken undertake VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 151 11 appears appear VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 151 12 with with IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 151 13 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 151 14 delay delay NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 151 15 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 151 16 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 151 17 reported report VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 151 18 rate rate NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 151 19 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 151 20 which which WDT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 151 21 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 151 22 estimated estimate VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 151 23 by by IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 151 24 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 151 25 fit fit JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 151 26 parameter parameter NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 151 27 t t NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 151 28 0 0 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 151 29 ∼ ∼ NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 151 30 15 15 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 151 31 days day NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 151 32 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 151 33 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 151 34 present present JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 151 35 case case NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 151 36 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 152 1 The the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 152 2 model model NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 152 3 calculations calculation NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 152 4 are be VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 152 5 able able JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 152 6 to to TO cord-201898-d1vbnjff 152 7 describe describe VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 152 8 very very RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 152 9 well well RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 152 10 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 152 11 case case NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 152 12 number number NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 152 13 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 152 14 infected infected JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 152 15 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 152 16 recovered recover VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 152 17 populations population NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 152 18 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 152 19 reported report VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 152 20 data datum NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 152 21 till till IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 152 22 now now RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 152 23 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 153 1 The the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 153 2 imposed impose VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 153 3 restrictions restriction NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 153 4 have have VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 153 5 led lead VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 153 6 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 153 7 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 153 8 reduction reduction NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 153 9 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 153 10 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 153 11 R r NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 153 12 i i NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 153 13 ( ( -LRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 153 14 t t NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 153 15 ) ) -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 153 16 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 153 17 an an DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 153 18 increase increase NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 153 19 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 153 20 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 153 21 T t NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 153 22 d d NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 153 23 values value NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 153 24 as as IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 153 25 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 153 26 time time NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 153 27 elapses elapse VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 153 28 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 154 1 The the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 154 2 quantitative quantitative JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 154 3 measure measure NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 154 4 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 154 5 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 154 6 intensity intensity NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 154 7 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 154 8 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 154 9 imposed impose VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 154 10 lockdown lockdown NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 154 11 that that WDT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 154 12 reduced reduce VBD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 154 13 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 154 14 growth growth NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 154 15 rate rate NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 154 16 r(t r(t NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 154 17 ) ) -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 154 18 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 154 19 almost almost RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 154 20 half half PDT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 154 21 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 154 22 value value NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 154 23 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 154 24 given give VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 154 25 by by IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 154 26 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 154 27 fit fit JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 154 28 parameter parameter NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 154 29 σ σ NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 154 30 = = SYM cord-201898-d1vbnjff 154 31 14 14 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 154 32 days day NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 154 33 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 155 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 155 2 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 155 3 seen see VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 155 4 from from IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 155 5 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 155 6 calculations calculation NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 155 7 that that IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 155 8 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 155 9 large large JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 155 10 number number NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 155 11 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 155 12 infections infection NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 155 13 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 155 14 fatalities fatality NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 155 15 have have VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 155 16 been be VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 155 17 averted avert VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 155 18 due due IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 155 19 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 155 20 imposition imposition NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 155 21 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 155 22 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 155 23 lock lock NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 155 24 - - HYPH cord-201898-d1vbnjff 155 25 down down NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 155 26 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 156 1 Some some DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 156 2 part part NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 156 3 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 156 4 this this DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 156 5 reduction reduction NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 156 6 may may MD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 156 7 be be VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 156 8 ascribed ascribe VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 156 9 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 156 10 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 156 11 enhanced enhance VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 156 12 public public JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 156 13 awareness awareness NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 156 14 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 156 15 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 156 16 growing grow VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 156 17 disease disease NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 156 18 monitoring monitoring NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 156 19 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 156 20 testing testing NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 156 21 capabilities capability NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 156 22 with with IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 156 23 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 156 24 passage passage NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 156 25 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 156 26 time time NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 156 27 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 157 1 However however RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 157 2 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 157 3 effect effect NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 157 4 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 157 5 complete complete JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 157 6 lock lock NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 157 7 - - HYPH cord-201898-d1vbnjff 157 8 down down NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 157 9 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 157 10 reducing reduce VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 157 11 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 157 12 infection infection NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 157 13 rate rate NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 157 14 has have VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 157 15 been be VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 157 16 quite quite RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 157 17 significant significant JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 157 18 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 158 1 After after IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 158 2 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 158 3 initial initial JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 158 4 period period NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 158 5 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 158 6 40 40 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 158 7 days day NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 158 8 following follow VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 158 9 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 158 10 complete complete JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 158 11 lock lock NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 158 12 - - HYPH cord-201898-d1vbnjff 158 13 down down RP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 158 14 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 158 15 there there EX cord-201898-d1vbnjff 158 16 has have VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 158 17 not not RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 158 18 been be VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 158 19 much much JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 158 20 gain gain NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 158 21 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 158 22 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 158 23 reduction reduction NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 158 24 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 158 25 infection infection NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 158 26 spread spread VBD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 158 27 rate rate NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 158 28 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 158 29 last last JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 158 30 30 30 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 158 31 days day NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 158 32 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 159 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 159 2 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 159 3 probable probable JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 159 4 that that IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 159 5 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 159 6 gradual gradual JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 159 7 weakening weakening NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 159 8 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 159 9 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 159 10 lock lock NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 159 11 - - HYPH cord-201898-d1vbnjff 159 12 down down NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 159 13 due due IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 159 14 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 159 15 socio socio JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 159 16 - - JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 159 17 economic economic JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 159 18 reasons reason NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 159 19 might may MD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 159 20 have have VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 159 21 offset offset VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 159 22 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 159 23 gains gain NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 159 24 due due IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 159 25 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 159 26 restrictive restrictive JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 159 27 measures measure NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 159 28 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 160 1 Nevertheless nevertheless RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 160 2 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 160 3 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 160 4 continued continue VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 160 5 restrictions restriction NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 160 6 have have VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 160 7 prevented prevent VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 160 8 any any DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 160 9 rise rise NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 160 10 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 160 11 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 160 12 rate rate NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 160 13 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 160 14 growth growth NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 160 15 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 160 16 infections infection NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 160 17 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 160 18 which which WDT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 160 19 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 160 20 absence absence NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 160 21 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 160 22 any any DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 160 23 such such JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 160 24 measures measure NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 160 25 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 160 26 expected expect VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 160 27 to to TO cord-201898-d1vbnjff 160 28 rise rise VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 160 29 again again RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 160 30 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 161 1 Even even RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 161 2 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 161 3 growth growth NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 161 4 rate rate NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 161 5 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 161 6 ∼ ∼ NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 161 7 4 4 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 161 8 − − NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 161 9 5 5 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 161 10 % % NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 161 11 attained attain VBD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 161 12 so so RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 161 13 far far RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 161 14 implies imply VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 161 15 an an DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 161 16 exponential exponential JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 161 17 growth growth NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 161 18 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 161 19 it -PRON- PRP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 161 20 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 161 21 seen see VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 161 22 that that IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 161 23 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 161 24 epidemic epidemic NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 161 25 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 161 26 India India NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 161 27 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 161 28 still still RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 161 29 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 161 30 early early JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 161 31 stages stage NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 161 32 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 162 1 Current current JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 162 2 estimates estimate NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 162 3 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 162 4 future future JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 162 5 trends trend NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 162 6 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 162 7 new new JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 162 8 infections infection NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 162 9 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 162 10 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 162 11 weeks week NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 162 12 after after IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 162 13 28 28 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 162 14 th th XX cord-201898-d1vbnjff 162 15 May May MD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 162 16 suggest suggest VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 162 17 that that IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 162 18 more more RBR cord-201898-d1vbnjff 162 19 severe severe JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 162 20 outbreak outbreak NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 162 21 may may MD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 162 22 occur occur VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 162 23 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 162 24 coming come VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 162 25 times time NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 162 26 leading lead VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 162 27 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 162 28 high high JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 162 29 number number NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 162 30 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 162 31 infections infection NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 162 32 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 163 1 With with IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 163 2 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 163 3 estimates estimate NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 163 4 from from IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 163 5 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 163 6 most most RBS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 163 7 likely likely JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 163 8 scenario scenario NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 163 9 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 163 10 over over IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 163 11 450,000 450,000 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 163 12 would would MD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 163 13 be be VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 163 14 clinically clinically RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 163 15 diagnosed diagnose VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 163 16 at at IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 163 17 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 163 18 maximum maximum JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 163 19 resulting resulting NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 163 20 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 163 21 ∼ ∼ NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 163 22 140,000 140,000 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 163 23 total total JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 163 24 fatalities fatality NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 163 25 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 164 1 Impact impact NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 164 2 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 164 3 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 164 4 severity severity NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 164 5 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 164 6 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 164 7 disease disease NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 164 8 outbreak outbreak NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 164 9 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 164 10 quantified quantify VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 164 11 through through IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 164 12 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 164 13 case case NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 164 14 fatality fatality NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 164 15 ratio ratio NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 164 16 ( ( -LRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 164 17 CFR CFR NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 164 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 164 19 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 165 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 165 2 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 165 3 defined define VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 165 4 as as IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 165 5 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 165 6 ratio ratio NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 165 7 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 165 8 fatality fatality NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 165 9 rate rate NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 165 10 D(t D(t NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 165 11 ) ) -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 165 12 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 165 13 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 165 14 cumulative cumulative JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 165 15 number number NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 165 16 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 165 17 infections infection NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 165 18 C(t C(t VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 165 19 ) ) -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 165 20 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 166 1 The the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 166 2 CFR CFR NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 166 3 values value NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 166 4 have have VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 166 5 varied vary VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 166 6 from from IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 166 7 ∼ ∼ NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 166 8 3.3 3.3 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 166 9 -2.8 -2.8 NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 166 10 as as IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 166 11 on on IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 166 12 April April NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 166 13 15 15 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 166 14 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 166 15 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 166 16 present present JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 166 17 day day NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 166 18 which which WDT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 166 19 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 166 20 less less JJR cord-201898-d1vbnjff 166 21 than than IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 166 22 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 166 23 global global JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 166 24 average average NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 166 25 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 166 26 ∼ ∼ NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 166 27 6.2 6.2 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 166 28 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 167 1 However however RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 167 2 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 167 3 some some DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 167 4 doubts doubt NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 167 5 remain remain VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 167 6 about about IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 167 7 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 167 8 estimations estimation NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 167 9 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 167 10 CFR CFR NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 167 11 because because IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 167 12 it -PRON- PRP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 167 13 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 167 14 possi- possi- FW cord-201898-d1vbnjff 167 15 ble ble FW cord-201898-d1vbnjff 167 16 that that IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 167 17 both both CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 167 18 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 167 19 number number NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 167 20 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 167 21 fatalities fatality NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 167 22 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 167 23 infections infection NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 167 24 may may MD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 167 25 be be VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 167 26 underestimated underestimate VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 167 27 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 168 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 168 2 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 168 3 more more RBR cord-201898-d1vbnjff 168 4 likely likely JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 168 5 that that IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 168 6 C(t c(t NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 168 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 168 8 may may MD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 168 9 be be VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 168 10 underestimated underestimate VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 168 11 more more RBR cord-201898-d1vbnjff 168 12 due due IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 168 13 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 168 14 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 168 15 presence presence NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 168 16 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 168 17 large large JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 168 18 number number NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 168 19 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 168 20 asymptomatic asymptomatic JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 168 21 or or CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 168 22 non non JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 168 23 - - JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 168 24 critical critical JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 168 25 infected infected JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 168 26 cases case NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 168 27 which which WDT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 168 28 leads lead VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 168 29 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 168 30 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 168 31 overestimation overestimation NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 168 32 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 168 33 CFR CFR NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 168 34 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 168 35 assuming assume VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 168 36 reported report VBD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 168 37 D(t D(t NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 168 38 ) ) -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 168 39 cases case NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 168 40 to to TO cord-201898-d1vbnjff 168 41 be be VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 168 42 true true JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 168 43 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 169 1 CFR CFR NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 169 2 remains remain VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 169 3 low low JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 169 4 as as RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 169 5 long long RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 169 6 as as IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 169 7 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 169 8 health health NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 169 9 facilities facility NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 169 10 are be VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 169 11 able able JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 169 12 to to TO cord-201898-d1vbnjff 169 13 cope cope VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 169 14 with with IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 169 15 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 169 16 rate rate NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 169 17 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 169 18 patients patient NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 169 19 requiring require VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 169 20 critical critical JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 169 21 care care NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 169 22 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 170 1 In in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 170 2 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 170 3 scenarios scenario NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 170 4 if if IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 170 5 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 170 6 number number NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 170 7 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 170 8 active active JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 170 9 infected infected JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 170 10 cases case NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 170 11 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 170 12 large large JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 170 13 as as IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 170 14 predicted predict VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 170 15 by by IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 170 16 multiple multiple JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 170 17 scenarios scenario NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 170 18 described describe VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 170 19 above above RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 170 20 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 170 21 requirements requirement NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 170 22 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 170 23 hospitalizations hospitalization NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 170 24 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 170 25 critical critical JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 170 26 care care NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 170 27 resources resource NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 170 28 may may MD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 170 29 increase increase VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 170 30 sharply sharply RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 170 31 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 171 1 In in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 171 2 such such PDT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 171 3 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 171 4 situation situation NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 171 5 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 171 6 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 171 7 health health NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 171 8 care care NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 171 9 system system NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 171 10 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 171 11 going go VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 171 12 to to TO cord-201898-d1vbnjff 171 13 be be VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 171 14 severely severely RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 171 15 challenged challenge VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 171 16 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 171 17 providing provide VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 171 18 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 171 19 critical critical JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 171 20 care care NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 171 21 facilities facility NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 171 22 for for IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 171 23 prevention prevention NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 171 24 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 171 25 fatalities fatality NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 171 26 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 172 1 The the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 172 2 CFR CFR NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 172 3 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 172 4 these these DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 172 5 conditions condition NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 172 6 may may MD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 172 7 rise rise VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 172 8 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 172 9 higher high JJR cord-201898-d1vbnjff 172 10 values value NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 172 11 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 173 1 Therefore therefore RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 173 2 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 173 3 imposing impose VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 173 4 stricter strict JJR cord-201898-d1vbnjff 173 5 measures measure NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 173 6 inside inside IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 173 7 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 173 8 containment containment NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 173 9 zones zone NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 173 10 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 173 11 more more RBR cord-201898-d1vbnjff 173 12 extensive extensive JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 173 13 testing testing NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 173 14 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 173 15 contact contact NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 173 16 - - HYPH cord-201898-d1vbnjff 173 17 tracing tracing NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 173 18 seems seem VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 173 19 to to TO cord-201898-d1vbnjff 173 20 be be VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 173 21 only only RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 173 22 viable viable JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 173 23 logical logical JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 173 24 preventive preventive JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 173 25 option option NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 173 26 that that WDT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 173 27 can can MD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 173 28 lead lead VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 173 29 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 173 30 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 173 31 manageable manageable JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 173 32 reduction reduction NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 173 33 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 173 34 infected infected JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 173 35 cases case NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 173 36 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 173 37 casualties casualty NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 173 38 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 173 39 absence absence NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 173 40 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 173 41 any any DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 173 42 therapies therapy NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 173 43 or or CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 173 44 large large JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 173 45 - - HYPH cord-201898-d1vbnjff 173 46 scale scale NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 173 47 immunity immunity NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 173 48 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 174 1 There there EX cord-201898-d1vbnjff 174 2 are be VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 174 3 limitations limitation NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 174 4 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 174 5 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 174 6 simplistic simplistic JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 174 7 model model NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 174 8 employed employ VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 174 9 here here RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 174 10 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 174 11 therefore therefore RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 174 12 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 174 13 exact exact JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 174 14 quantitative quantitative JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 174 15 numbers number NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 174 16 presented present VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 174 17 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 174 18 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 174 19 work work NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 174 20 are be VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 174 21 only only RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 174 22 indicative indicative JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 174 23 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 175 1 In in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 175 2 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 175 3 present present JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 175 4 model model NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 175 5 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 175 6 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 175 7 asymptomatic asymptomatic JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 175 8 populations population NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 175 9 are be VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 175 10 taken take VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 175 11 only only RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 175 12 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 175 13 an an DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 175 14 indirect indirect JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 175 15 way way NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 175 16 at at IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 175 17 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 175 18 start start NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 175 19 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 175 20 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 175 21 epidemic epidemic NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 175 22 through through IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 175 23 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 175 24 introduction introduction NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 175 25 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 175 26 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 175 27 parameter parameter NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 175 28 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 176 1 Inclusion inclusion NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 176 2 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 176 3 this this DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 176 4 population population NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 176 5 as as IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 176 6 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 176 7 separate separate JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 176 8 compartment compartment NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 176 9 however however RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 176 10 would would MD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 176 11 lead lead VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 176 12 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 176 13 introduction introduction NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 176 14 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 176 15 extra extra JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 176 16 set set NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 176 17 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 176 18 unknown unknown JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 176 19 parameters parameter NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 176 20 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 177 1 Further further RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 177 2 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 177 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 177 4 have have VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 177 5 not not RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 177 6 considered consider VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 177 7 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 177 8 regional regional JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 177 9 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 177 10 age age NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 177 11 specific specific JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 177 12 heterogeneities heterogeneity NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 177 13 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 177 14 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 177 15 model model NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 177 16 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 178 1 While while IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 178 2 we -PRON- PRP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 178 3 have have VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 178 4 made make VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 178 5 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 178 6 reasonable reasonable JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 178 7 assumption assumption NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 178 8 for for IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 178 9 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 178 10 parameter parameter NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 178 11 α α NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 178 12 = = SYM cord-201898-d1vbnjff 178 13 0.1 0.1 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 178 14 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 178 15 implying imply VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 178 16 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 178 17 10 10 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 178 18 % % NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 178 19 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 178 20 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 178 21 total total JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 178 22 population population NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 178 23 as as IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 178 24 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 178 25 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 178 26 population population NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 178 27 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 178 28 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 178 29 overall overall JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 178 30 numbers number NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 178 31 presented present VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 178 32 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 178 33 this this DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 178 34 work work NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 178 35 may may MD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 178 36 differ differ VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 178 37 if if IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 178 38 it -PRON- PRP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 178 39 has have VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 178 40 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 178 41 significantly significantly RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 178 42 different different JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 178 43 value value NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 178 44 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 179 1 This this DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 179 2 number number NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 179 3 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 179 4 going go VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 179 5 to to TO cord-201898-d1vbnjff 179 6 be be VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 179 7 affected affect VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 179 8 as as IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 179 9 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 179 10 country country NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 179 11 has have VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 179 12 seen see VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 179 13 large large JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 179 14 scale scale NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 179 15 migration migration NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 179 16 from from IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 179 17 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 179 18 infected infected JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 179 19 areas area NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 179 20 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 179 21 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 179 22 other other JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 179 23 areas area NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 179 24 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 179 25 recent recent JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 179 26 times time NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 179 27 which which WDT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 179 28 may may MD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 179 29 increase increase VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 179 30 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 179 31 pool pool NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 179 32 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 179 33 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 179 34 population population NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 179 35 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 180 1 Further further RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 180 2 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 180 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 180 4 have have VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 180 5 made make VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 180 6 forecasts forecast NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 180 7 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 180 8 this this DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 180 9 work work NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 180 10 based base VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 180 11 on on IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 180 12 probable probable JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 180 13 daily daily JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 180 14 growth growth NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 180 15 rates rate NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 180 16 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 181 1 The the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 181 2 determination determination NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 181 3 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 181 4 contact contact NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 181 5 rate rate NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 181 6 parameter parameter NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 181 7 through through IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 181 8 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 181 9 measured measure VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 181 10 rate rate NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 181 11 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 181 12 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 181 13 simple simple JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 181 14 way way NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 181 15 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 181 16 uncertain uncertain JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 181 17 due due IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 181 18 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 181 19 stochastic stochastic JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 181 20 fluctuations fluctuation NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 181 21 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 181 22 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 181 23 early early JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 181 24 stages stage NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 181 25 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 181 26 inaccuracies inaccuracy NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 181 27 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 181 28 time time NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 181 29 delay delay NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 181 30 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 181 31 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 181 32 reported report VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 181 33 data datum NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 181 34 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 182 1 Further further RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 182 2 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 182 3 there there EX cord-201898-d1vbnjff 182 4 are be VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 182 5 challenges challenge NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 182 6 on on IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 182 7 designing design VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 182 8 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 182 9 control control NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 182 10 mechanisms mechanism NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 182 11 based base VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 182 12 on on IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 182 13 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 182 14 basis basis NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 182 15 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 182 16 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 182 17 numbers number NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 182 18 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 182 19 daily daily JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 182 20 growth growth NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 182 21 as as IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 182 22 discussed discuss VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 182 23 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 182 24 Ref Ref NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 182 25 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 183 1 [ [ -LRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 183 2 27 27 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 183 3 ] ] -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 183 4 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 184 1 However however RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 184 2 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 184 3 this this DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 184 4 work work NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 184 5 shows show VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 184 6 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 184 7 operational operational JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 184 8 use use NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 184 9 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 184 10 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 184 11 R r NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 184 12 i i NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 184 13 ( ( -LRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 184 14 t t NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 184 15 ) ) -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 184 16 calculated calculate VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 184 17 from from IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 184 18 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 184 19 instantaneous instantaneous JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 184 20 infection infection NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 184 21 rate rate NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 184 22 to to TO cord-201898-d1vbnjff 184 23 provide provide VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 184 24 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 184 25 reasonable reasonable JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 184 26 description description NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 184 27 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 184 28 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 184 29 transmission transmission NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 184 30 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 184 31 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 185 1 In in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 185 2 this this DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 185 3 article article NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 185 4 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 185 5 we -PRON- PRP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 185 6 have have VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 185 7 presented present VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 185 8 results result NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 185 9 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 185 10 SEIRD SEIRD NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 185 11 model model NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 185 12 calculations calculation NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 185 13 to to TO cord-201898-d1vbnjff 185 14 study study VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 185 15 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 185 16 role role NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 185 17 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 185 18 interventions intervention NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 185 19 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 185 20 make make VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 185 21 future future JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 185 22 projections projection NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 185 23 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 185 24 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 185 25 Covid-19 covid-19 NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 185 26 spread spread NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 185 27 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 185 28 India India NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 185 29 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 186 1 To to TO cord-201898-d1vbnjff 186 2 make make VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 186 3 reliable reliable JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 186 4 forecast forecast NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 186 5 we -PRON- PRP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 186 6 have have VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 186 7 determined determine VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 186 8 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 186 9 time time NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 186 10 dependent dependent JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 186 11 reproduction reproduction NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 186 12 number number NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 186 13 R r NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 186 14 i i NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 186 15 ( ( -LRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 186 16 t t NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 186 17 ) ) -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 186 18 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 186 19 contact contact NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 186 20 rate rate NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 186 21 parameter parameter NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 186 22 β(t β(t NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 186 23 ) ) -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 186 24 from from IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 186 25 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 186 26 data datum NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 186 27 for for IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 186 28 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 186 29 daily daily JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 186 30 rate rate NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 186 31 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 186 32 increase increase NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 186 33 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 186 34 infections infection NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 186 35 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 187 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 187 2 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 187 3 shown show VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 187 4 that that IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 187 5 timely timely JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 187 6 imposition imposition NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 187 7 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 187 8 lock lock NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 187 9 - - HYPH cord-201898-d1vbnjff 187 10 down down NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 187 11 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 187 12 other other JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 187 13 public public JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 187 14 health health NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 187 15 interventions intervention NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 187 16 have have VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 187 17 led lead VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 187 18 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 187 19 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 187 20 substantial substantial JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 187 21 reduction reduction NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 187 22 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 187 23 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 187 24 effective effective JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 187 25 reproduction reproduction NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 187 26 number number NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 187 27 which which WDT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 187 28 decreased decrease VBD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 187 29 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 187 30 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 187 31 present present JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 187 32 value value NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 187 33 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 187 34 ≈1.6 ≈1.6 NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 187 35 from from IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 187 36 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 187 37 peak peak NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 187 38 value value NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 187 39 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 187 40 ≈3.2 ≈3.2 NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 187 41 corresponding correspond VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 187 42 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 187 43 an an DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 187 44 increase increase NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 187 45 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 187 46 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 187 47 doubling double VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 187 48 time time NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 187 49 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 187 50 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 187 51 infections infection NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 187 52 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 188 1 Calculations calculation NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 188 2 performed perform VBD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 188 3 using use VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 188 4 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 188 5 time time NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 188 6 dependent dependent JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 188 7 contact contact NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 188 8 rate rate NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 188 9 parameter parameter NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 188 10 β(t β(t NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 188 11 ) ) -RRB- cord-201898-d1vbnjff 188 12 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 188 13 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 188 14 SEIRD SEIRD NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 188 15 model model NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 188 16 provide provide VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 188 17 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 188 18 good good JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 188 19 description description NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 188 20 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 188 21 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 188 22 case case NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 188 23 numbers number NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 188 24 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 188 25 infections infection NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 188 26 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 188 27 recovered recover VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 188 28 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 188 29 deaths death NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 188 30 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 189 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 189 2 further further RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 189 3 make make VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 189 4 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 189 5 projections projection NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 189 6 for for IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 189 7 different different JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 189 8 probable probable JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 189 9 scenarios scenario NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 189 10 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 190 1 In in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 190 2 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 190 3 most most RBS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 190 4 likely likely JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 190 5 scenario scenario VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 190 6 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 190 7 model model NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 190 8 predicts predict VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 190 9 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 190 10 peak peak NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 190 11 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 190 12 active active JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 190 13 infections infection NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 190 14 around around IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 190 15 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 190 16 month month NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 190 17 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 190 18 September September NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 190 19 with with IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 190 20 significant significant JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 190 21 number number NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 190 22 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 190 23 fatalities fatality NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 190 24 over over IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 190 25 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 190 26 course course NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 190 27 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 190 28 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 190 29 epidemic epidemic NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 190 30 around around IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 190 31 end end NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 190 32 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 190 33 November November NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 190 34 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 191 1 The the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 191 2 results result NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 191 3 show show VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 191 4 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 191 5 impending impending JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 191 6 critical critical JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 191 7 challenges challenge NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 191 8 for for IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 191 9 health health NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 191 10 care care NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 191 11 systems system NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 191 12 due due JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 191 13 to to IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 191 14 prospective prospective JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 191 15 high high JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 191 16 number number NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 191 17 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 191 18 people people NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 191 19 with with IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 191 20 infections infection NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 191 21 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 192 1 The the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 192 2 salient salient JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 192 3 feature feature NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 192 4 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 192 5 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 192 6 simple simple JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 192 7 model model NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 192 8 employed employ VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 192 9 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 192 10 this this DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 192 11 work work NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 192 12 is be VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 192 13 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 192 14 use use NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 192 15 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 192 16 minimal minimal JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 192 17 uncertain uncertain JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 192 18 parameters parameter NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 192 19 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 192 20 therefore therefore RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 192 21 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 192 22 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 192 23 opinion opinion NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 192 24 it -PRON- PRP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 192 25 makes make VBZ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 192 26 reliable reliable JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 192 27 predictions prediction NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 192 28 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 192 29 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 192 30 infections infection NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 192 31 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 192 32 fatalities fatality NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 192 33 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 193 1 The the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 193 2 projections projection NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 193 3 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 193 4 peak peak NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 193 5 infections infection NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 193 6 suggest suggest VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 193 7 big big JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 193 8 challenges challenge NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 193 9 for for IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 193 10 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 193 11 available available JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 193 12 critical critical JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 193 13 care care NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 193 14 health health NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 193 15 facilities facility NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 193 16 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 193 17 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 193 18 management management NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 193 19 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 193 20 pandemic pandemic NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 193 21 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 194 1 New new JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 194 2 innovative innovative JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 194 3 solutions solution NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 194 4 have have VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 194 5 to to TO cord-201898-d1vbnjff 194 6 be be VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 194 7 continuously continuously RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 194 8 found find VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 194 9 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 194 10 intelligent intelligent JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 194 11 measures measure NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 194 12 have have VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 194 13 to to TO cord-201898-d1vbnjff 194 14 be be VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 194 15 effectively effectively RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 194 16 implemented implement VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 194 17 if if IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 194 18 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 194 19 Covid-19 covid-19 JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 194 20 infections infection NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 194 21 have have VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 194 22 to to TO cord-201898-d1vbnjff 194 23 be be VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 194 24 contained contain VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 194 25 with with IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 194 26 a a DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 194 27 moderate moderate JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 194 28 number number NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 194 29 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 194 30 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 194 31 ensuing ensue VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 194 32 fatalities fatality NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 194 33 have have VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 194 34 to to TO cord-201898-d1vbnjff 194 35 be be VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 194 36 minimized minimize VBN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 194 37 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 195 1 The the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 195 2 most most RBS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 195 3 important important JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 195 4 extension extension NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 195 5 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 195 6 this this DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 195 7 study study NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 195 8 will will MD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 195 9 be be VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 195 10 to to TO cord-201898-d1vbnjff 195 11 incorporate incorporate VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 195 12 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 195 13 regional regional JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 195 14 variability variability NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 195 15 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 195 16 apply apply VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 195 17 this this DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 195 18 model model NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 195 19 by by IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 195 20 considering consider VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 195 21 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 195 22 state state NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 195 23 wise wise JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 195 24 infection infection NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 195 25 data datum NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 195 26 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 195 27 make make VB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 195 28 predictions prediction NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 195 29 accordingly accordingly RB cord-201898-d1vbnjff 195 30 . . . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 196 1 Situation situation NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 196 2 Report Report NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 196 3 133 133 CD cord-201898-d1vbnjff 196 4 Infectious infectious JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 196 5 Diseases Diseases NNPS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 196 6 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 196 7 Humans human NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 197 1 cal cal NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 197 2 Epidemiology Epidemiology NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 197 3 of of IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 197 4 Infectious Infectious NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 197 5 Diseases Diseases NNPS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 197 6 : : : cord-201898-d1vbnjff 197 7 Model Model NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 197 8 Building Building NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 197 9 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 197 10 Analysis Analysis NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 197 11 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 197 12 Interpretation Interpretation NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 197 13 Mathematical Mathematical NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 197 14 Models Models NNPS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 197 15 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 197 16 Population Population NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 197 17 Biology Biology NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 197 18 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 197 19 Epidemiology Epidemiology NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 197 20 2nd 2nd JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 197 21 edn edn NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 197 22 Seasonality Seasonality NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 197 23 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 197 24 perioddoubling perioddouble VBG cord-201898-d1vbnjff 197 25 bifurcation bifurcation NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 197 26 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 197 27 an an DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 197 28 epidemic epidemic NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 197 29 model model NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 197 30 Swarnajit Swarnajit NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 197 31 Chatterjee Chatterjee NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 197 32 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 197 33 Mintu Mintu NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 197 34 Karmakar Karmakar NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 197 35 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 197 36 Raja Raja NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 197 37 Paul Paul NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 197 38 medarXiv medarXiv . cord-201898-d1vbnjff 198 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 198 2 thank thank VBP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 198 3 V. V. NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 198 4 V. V. NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 198 5 Parkar Parkar NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 198 6 , , , cord-201898-d1vbnjff 198 7 D. D. NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 198 8 K. K. NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 198 9 Mishra Mishra NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 198 10 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 198 11 G. G. NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 198 12 Chaudhuri Chaudhuri NNP cord-201898-d1vbnjff 198 13 for for IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 198 14 useful useful JJ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 198 15 discussions discussion NNS cord-201898-d1vbnjff 198 16 and and CC cord-201898-d1vbnjff 198 17 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-201898-d1vbnjff 198 18 interest interest NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 198 19 in in IN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 198 20 the the DT cord-201898-d1vbnjff 198 21 work work NN cord-201898-d1vbnjff 198 22 . . .