id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-174036-b3frnfr7	Thomas, Loring J.	Spatial Heterogeneity Can Lead to Substantial Local Variations in COVID-19 Timing and Severity	2020-05-20		.txt	text/plain	6666	268	44	Based on simulations of unrestricted COVID-19 diffusion in 19 U.S cities, we conclude that heterogeneity in population distribution can have large impacts on local pandemic timing and severity, even when aggregate behavior at larger scales mirrors a classic SIR-like pattern. These results demonstrate the potential for spatial network structure to generate highly non-uniform diffusion behavior even at the scale of cities, and suggest the importance of incorporating such structure when designing models to inform healthcare planning, predict community outcomes, or identify potential disparities. In this paper, we examine the potential impact of local spatial heterogeneity on COVID-19, modeling the diffusion of SARS-CoV-2 in populations whose contacts are based on spatially plausible network structures. The disease diffuses through the contact network, with currently infectious individuals infecting susceptible neighbors as a continous time Poisson process with a rate estimated from mortality data (see supplement); recovered or deceased individuals are not considered infectious for modeling purposes.	./cache/cord-174036-b3frnfr7.txt	./txt/cord-174036-b3frnfr7.txt