id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-103342-stqj3ue5	Prakash, Meher K	A minimal and adaptive prediction strategy for critical resource planning in a pandemic	2020-04-10		.txt	text/plain	3242	168	57	We propose a strategy for estimating the number of infections and the number of deaths, that does away with time-series modeling, and instead makes use of a 'phase portrait approach'. Using our model, we predict the number of infections and deaths in Italy and New York State, based on an adaptive algorithm which uses early available data, and show that our predictions closely match the actual outcomes. Our approach can be summarized as follows: The COVID-19 data from most countries suggests that, especially in the growing phase of the pandemic, the number of active cases and the number of hospitalizations are both proportional to the total number of infections: approximately around 70-90 % and 20-30%, respectively. Thus, using the data from South Korea as a reference standard, the deaths versus infections curve has been readjusted as seen in Figure:3A CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.	./cache/cord-103342-stqj3ue5.txt	./txt/cord-103342-stqj3ue5.txt