key: cord-317781-rfr60we7 authors: Singh, J.; Ahluwalia, P. K.; Kumar, A. title: Mathematical Model Based COVID-19 Prediction in India and its Different States date: 2020-05-18 journal: nan DOI: 10.1101/2020.05.16.20104232 sha: doc_id: 317781 cord_uid: rfr60we7 By employing the successive approximation method to the real-time data of India and its different states, we have predicted the bounds of the spread of COVID-19 in India and its various states. The calculated lower and upper bound of patients (deaths) till 10th June 2020 comes out to be 79496 (3835) and 241759 (7045), respectively. States like Delhi, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Punjab, Rajasthan and Tamil Nadu are the spike states as suggested by the range of expected COVID-19 patients and deaths. Impact of return of stranded pilgrims from Nanded (Maharashtra) has also been looked into in the case of Punjab. It has been found that Punjab may see ~ 5 times increase in the lower bound of expected patients till 10th June 2020 due to the return of pilgrims from Maharashtra. Our study provides an insight into the possible number of expected patients and deaths in near future that may be of importance for the respective governments to be ready with the appropriate preventive measures and logistics to put appropriate infrastructure and medical facilities in place to manage the spread of deadly virus and go down the flattening curve. The whole world is suffering from the COVID-19 pandemic which started from Wuhan, China [1] . So far due to this pandemic, the number of patients have risen to 4088848 and the death count risen to 283153 (mortality rate ~ 6.9%) [2] . The World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 a pandemic on 11 March 2020 by looking at its spread and threat to human life on the earth [3] . In India, the first case of COVID-19 was recorded on 30 January 2020 in Kerala, after that the number of cases rose to 69307 and death count rose to 2282 till 12 th May 2020. It has been confirmed that COVID-19 transmits from person to person through touching, coughing, sneezing [4] , therefore, social distancing, isolation, and self-quarantine of suspected and infected patients are a must to avoid its spread. To control its transmission, lockdowns and curfews are implemented in various countries. In India the lockdown was implemented by the Government of India in the early stages of this pandemic in a country that restricted its fast exponential growth as has happened in China, USA, Italy, Spain, etc. [5] [6] . However, the lockdowns and curfews are not the permanent solution of this pandemic and cannot be implemented for longer periods of time especially for a country like India, because of huge economic cost impacting vulnerable sections of the society, daily wage earners and large migrant labor. Beyond Lockdowns, every individual has to take his/her responsibility to maintain social distancing, use masks in public, avoid social gatherings, and avoid unnecessary movements to control its spread in the near future until its vaccine is discovered. The main symptoms of this pandemic are high fever, dry cough, and body pain. It has been found recently that some cases are asymptotic [7] i.e. they do not show any symptoms. Such cases are very silent spreaders of the pandemic. It has been found that the virus can survive up to 3 hours in aerosols, 4 hours on copper, 24 hours on cardboard, and 72 hours on plastic and . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review) The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted May 18, 2020. . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.16.20104232 doi: medRxiv preprint stainless steel [8] . This is the reason behind the exponential rise in cases of this pandemic worldwide despite the measures that have been taken to prevent its spread on war footing. The forecast of this pandemic based on the real-time data provides a way to help the governments and the concerned authorities to make the policies to minimize the infection of COVID-19 and halt it at the earliest with the participation of public at large. By anticipating the expected growth of patients, it is likely that governments provide required interventions such as COVID-19 health facilities, quarantine centers to screen suspected persons, dedicated COVID hospitals for infected cases and chalk out strategies to let the economic activities continue. Mathematical models and data analytics are important tools to analyze and forecast the outbreak of infectious disease [9] [10] [11] . In this paper, we have utilized the successive approximation method [9] for short term forecast of infected and deceased people up to 10 th June 2020. We have calculated the lower and upper bound of patients and deaths till 10 th June 2020 for India and its various states. Our predictions hopefully can be helpful in social, economic, and health implications of COVID-19 for India at this stage. As India has a highly dense population and combining it with its Global Health Security Index (GHS) number (57/195) [12], India may be at great risk of this infectious disease. Data were collected till 12 th May 2020 from the official website of COVID-19 (https://www.mygov.in/covid-19/) health advisory platform provided by the government of India. Data collected for the whole of India and its states, having patients count greater than 100 till 12 th May 2020 is analyzed with the help of a successive approximation method as employed in reference [9, 11] . We find the spread (death) ratio as the ratio of the number of cases (deaths) . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted May 18, 2020. . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.16.20104232 doi: medRxiv preprint on a particular day to the sum of the cases (deaths) on that day and the next day. We use these ratios to find the future number of patients as well as deaths till 10 th June 2020. ܽ are the number of cases at day ݅ than we define the ratio as: For the next day ݅ 1 , the ratio is given by: We use these ratios to find the future state of cases as: where ߟ is the mean ratio given by: By using this technique, we have forecast the spreading of COVID-19 in India and its different states. . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted May 18, 2020. . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.16.20104232 doi: medRxiv preprint We have plotted the spread and death ratios w. r. t number of days in Figure 1a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted May 18, 2020. . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.16.20104232 doi: medRxiv preprint It is pertinent to note that in Punjab, the number of cases up to 1 st May 2020 were 357 and within one week from this the cases rose to ~1700. This sudden rise in the number of positive cases was due large number of pilgrims (~3500) returning to Punjab from Nanded Hazur CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted May 18, 2020. . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.16.20104232 doi: medRxiv preprint 8 spread of this pandemic. The rapid and large-scale testing of suspected cases is a must to prevent its spread. Isolation of suspected cases, social distancing and quarantine should also be strictly followed in India to prevent the spread of this pandemic. Our results may provide insight into the course of spread of COVID-19 in India and its different states, and may be of importance to central government and governments in the states and to take appropriate preventive measures to stop the spread of the COVID-19 till the vaccine is discovered, a scenario which is unlikely to be in immediate future. In summary, India maybe at high risk due to its highly dense population and moderate health facilities (ranks 57/195 in Global Health Security Index). Though we have done well compared to many countries till date, but the future is full of uncertainties. We need to draw appropriate lessons from the predictive nature of studies as has been carried out in this paper with clear indications of the likely spread. Also, this study clearly indicates the likely hotspot states where immediate interventions will be needed to break the COVID-19 spread. Our results we hope will help the governments to plan their strategies against the spread of COVID-19. There is lot of implication of increase in testing facilities on the forecast made in this paper We declare no conflict of interest. Short-term forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic in Guangdong and Zhejiang International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review) The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation reports Day level forecasting for Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) spread: analysis, modeling and recommendations A familial cluster of pneumonia associated with the 2019 novel coronavirus indicating person-to-person transmission: a study of a family cluster. The Lancet Fast spread of COVID-19 in Europe and the US and its implications: even modest public health goals require comprehensive intervention Generalized logistic growth modeling of the COVID-19 outbreak in 29 provinces in China and in the rest of the world The clinical feature of silent infections of novel coronavirus infection (COVID 19) in Wenzhou Aerosol and surface stability of SARS-CoV-2 as compared with SARS-CoV-1 Analysis of the Worldwide Corona Virus (COVID-19) Pandemic Trend; A Modelling Study to Predict Its Spread. medRxiv Outbreak analytics: a developing data science for informing the response to emerging pathogens It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted May 18, 2020. 13. https://www.grainmart.in/news/a-new-wave-of-coronavirus-spread-seen-in-punjabthrough-nanded-hazur-sahib-pilgrims/ . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted May 18, 2020. . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.16.20104232 doi: medRxiv preprint 1 1 The plots of Spread ratio, death ratio, expected patients and deaths in different states of India.. CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted May 18, 2020. . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.16.20104232 doi: medRxiv preprint 1 2 . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted May 18, 2020. . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.16.20104232 doi: medRxiv preprint 1 3. CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted May 18, 2020. . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.16.20104232 doi: medRxiv preprint 1 4. CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted May 18, 2020. . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.16.20104232 doi: medRxiv preprint 1 5. CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (which was not certified by peer review)The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted May 18, 2020. . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.16.20104232 doi: medRxiv preprint