id sid tid token lemma pos cord-001549-m5qabh1k 1 1 key key JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 1 2 : : : cord-001549-m5qabh1k 1 3 cord-001549-m5qabh1k cord-001549-m5qabh1k NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 1 4 authors author NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 1 5 : : : cord-001549-m5qabh1k 1 6 Kadi Kadi NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 1 7 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 1 8 Adiveppa Adiveppa NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 1 9 S. S. NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 1 10 ; ; : cord-001549-m5qabh1k 1 11 Avaradi Avaradi NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 1 12 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 1 13 Shivakumari Shivakumari NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 1 14 R. R. NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 1 15 title title NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 1 16 : : : cord-001549-m5qabh1k 1 17 A a DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 1 18 Bayesian Bayesian NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 1 19 Inferential Inferential NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 1 20 Approach Approach NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 1 21 to to TO cord-001549-m5qabh1k 1 22 Quantify quantify VB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 1 23 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 1 24 Transmission transmission NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 1 25 Intensity intensity NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 1 26 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 1 27 Disease Disease NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 1 28 Outbreak Outbreak NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 1 29 date date NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 1 30 : : : cord-001549-m5qabh1k 1 31 2015 2015 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 1 32 - - HYPH cord-001549-m5qabh1k 1 33 02 02 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 1 34 - - SYM cord-001549-m5qabh1k 1 35 15 15 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 1 36 journal journal NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 1 37 : : : cord-001549-m5qabh1k 2 1 Comput Comput NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 2 2 Math Math NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 2 3 Methods method NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 3 1 Med Med NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 3 2 DOI DOI NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 3 3 : : : cord-001549-m5qabh1k 4 1 10.1155/2015/256319 10.1155/2015/256319 NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 4 2 sha sha NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 4 3 : : : cord-001549-m5qabh1k 4 4 b50ee1febe5e4b252cbc70678de7272524377ca1 b50ee1febe5e4b252cbc70678de7272524377ca1 NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 4 5 doc_id doc_id NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 4 6 : : : cord-001549-m5qabh1k 4 7 1549 1549 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 4 8 cord_uid cord_uid NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 4 9 : : : cord-001549-m5qabh1k 5 1 m5qabh1k m5qabh1k NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 5 2 Background Background NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 5 3 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 6 1 Emergence emergence NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 6 2 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 6 3 infectious infectious JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 6 4 diseases disease NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 6 5 like like IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 6 6 influenza influenza NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 6 7 pandemic pandemic NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 6 8 ( ( -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 6 9 H1N1 H1N1 NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 6 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 6 11 2009 2009 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 6 12 has have VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 6 13 become become VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 6 14 great great JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 6 15 concern concern NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 6 16 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 6 17 which which WDT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 6 18 posed pose VBD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 6 19 new new JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 6 20 challenges challenge NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 6 21 to to IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 6 22 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 6 23 health health NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 6 24 authorities authority NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 6 25 worldwide worldwide RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 6 26 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 7 1 To to TO cord-001549-m5qabh1k 7 2 control control VB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 7 3 these these DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 7 4 diseases disease NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 7 5 various various JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 7 6 studies study NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 7 7 have have VBP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 7 8 been be VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 7 9 developed develop VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 7 10 in in IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 7 11 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 7 12 field field NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 7 13 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 7 14 mathematical mathematical JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 7 15 modelling modelling NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 7 16 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 7 17 which which WDT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 7 18 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 7 19 useful useful JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 7 20 tool tool NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 7 21 for for IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 7 22 understanding understand VBG cord-001549-m5qabh1k 7 23 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 7 24 epidemiological epidemiological JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 7 25 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 7 26 and and CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 7 27 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 7 28 dependence dependence NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 7 29 on on IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 7 30 social social JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 7 31 mixing mix VBG cord-001549-m5qabh1k 7 32 patterns pattern NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 7 33 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 8 1 Method method NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 8 2 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 9 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 9 2 have have VBP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 9 3 used use VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 9 4 Bayesian bayesian JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 9 5 approach approach NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 9 6 to to TO cord-001549-m5qabh1k 9 7 quantify quantify VB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 9 8 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 9 9 disease disease NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 9 10 outbreak outbreak NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 9 11 through through IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 9 12 key key JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 9 13 epidemiological epidemiological JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 9 14 parameter parameter NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 9 15 basic basic JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 9 16 reproduction reproduction NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 9 17 number number NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 9 18 ( ( -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 9 19 R r NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 9 20 ( ( -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 9 21 0 0 NFP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 9 22 ) ) -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 9 23 ) ) -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 9 24 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 9 25 using use VBG cord-001549-m5qabh1k 9 26 effective effective JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 9 27 contacts contact NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 9 28 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 9 29 defined define VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 9 30 as as IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 9 31 sum sum NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 9 32 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 9 33 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 9 34 product product NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 9 35 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 9 36 incidence incidence NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 9 37 cases case NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 9 38 and and CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 9 39 probability probability NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 9 40 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 9 41 generation generation NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 9 42 time time NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 9 43 distribution distribution NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 9 44 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 10 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 10 2 have have VBP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 10 3 estimated estimate VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 10 4 R r NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 10 5 ( ( -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 10 6 0 0 NFP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 10 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 10 8 from from IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 10 9 daily daily JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 10 10 case case NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 10 11 incidence incidence NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 10 12 data datum NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 10 13 for for IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 10 14 pandemic pandemic NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 10 15 influenza influenza NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 10 16 A A NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 10 17 / / SYM cord-001549-m5qabh1k 10 18 H1N1 H1N1 NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 10 19 2009 2009 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 10 20 in in IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 10 21 India India NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 10 22 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 10 23 for for IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 10 24 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 10 25 initial initial JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 10 26 phase phase NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 10 27 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 11 1 Result result NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 11 2 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 12 1 The the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 12 2 estimated estimate VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 12 3 R r NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 12 4 ( ( -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 12 5 0 0 NFP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 12 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 12 7 with with IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 12 8 95 95 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 12 9 % % NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 12 10 credible credible JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 12 11 interval interval NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 12 12 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 12 13 consistent consistent JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 12 14 with with IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 12 15 several several JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 12 16 other other JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 12 17 studies study NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 12 18 on on IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 12 19 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 12 20 same same JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 12 21 strain strain NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 12 22 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 13 1 Through through IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 13 2 sensitivity sensitivity NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 13 3 analysis analysis NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 13 4 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 13 5 study study NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 13 6 indicates indicate VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 13 7 that that IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 13 8 infectiousness infectiousness NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 13 9 affects affect VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 13 10 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 13 11 estimate estimate NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 13 12 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 13 13 R r NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 13 14 ( ( -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 13 15 0 0 NFP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 13 16 ) ) -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 13 17 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 14 1 Conclusion conclusion NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 14 2 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 15 1 Basic basic JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 15 2 reproduction reproduction NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 15 3 number number NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 15 4 R r NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 15 5 ( ( -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 15 6 0 0 NFP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 15 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 15 8 provides provide VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 15 9 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 15 10 useful useful JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 15 11 information information NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 15 12 to to IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 15 13 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 15 14 public public JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 15 15 health health NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 15 16 system system NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 15 17 to to TO cord-001549-m5qabh1k 15 18 do do VB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 15 19 some some DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 15 20 effort effort NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 15 21 in in IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 15 22 controlling control VBG cord-001549-m5qabh1k 15 23 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 15 24 disease disease NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 15 25 by by IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 15 26 using use VBG cord-001549-m5qabh1k 15 27 mitigation mitigation NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 15 28 strategies strategy NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 15 29 like like IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 15 30 vaccination vaccination NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 15 31 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 15 32 quarantine quarantine NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 15 33 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 15 34 and and CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 15 35 so so RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 15 36 forth forth RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 15 37 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 16 1 Influenza influenza NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 16 2 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 16 3 an an DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 16 4 emerging emerge VBG cord-001549-m5qabh1k 16 5 infectious infectious JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 16 6 disease disease NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 16 7 and and CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 16 8 influenza influenza NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 16 9 - - HYPH cord-001549-m5qabh1k 16 10 like like JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 16 11 illness illness NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 16 12 ( ( -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 16 13 ILI ILI NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 16 14 ) ) -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 16 15 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 16 16 a a DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 16 17 clinical clinical JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 16 18 illness illness NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 16 19 caused cause VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 16 20 by by IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 16 21 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 16 22 influenza influenza NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 16 23 virus virus NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 16 24 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 16 25 which which WDT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 16 26 gave give VBD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 16 27 rise rise NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 16 28 to to IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 16 29 human human JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 16 30 pandemics pandemic NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 16 31 such such JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 16 32 as as IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 16 33 1918 1918 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 16 34 Spanish spanish JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 16 35 flu flu NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 16 36 ( ( -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 16 37 H1N1 H1N1 NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 16 38 ) ) -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 16 39 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 16 40 1957 1957 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 16 41 Asian asian JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 16 42 flu flu NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 16 43 ( ( -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 16 44 H3N2 H3N2 NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 16 45 ) ) -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 16 46 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 16 47 1968 1968 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 16 48 Hong Hong NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 16 49 Kong Kong NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 16 50 flu flu NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 16 51 ( ( -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 16 52 H2N2 H2N2 NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 16 53 ) ) -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 16 54 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 16 55 and and CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 16 56 most most RBS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 16 57 recently recently RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 16 58 H1N1 H1N1 NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 16 59 pandemic pandemic NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 16 60 2009 2009 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 16 61 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 17 1 Influenza Influenza NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 17 2 A A NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 17 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 17 4 H1N1 H1N1 NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 17 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 17 6 was be VBD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 17 7 originally originally RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 17 8 referred refer VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 17 9 to to IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 17 10 as as IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 17 11 " " `` cord-001549-m5qabh1k 17 12 swine swine NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 17 13 flu flu NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 17 14 " " '' cord-001549-m5qabh1k 17 15 because because IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 17 16 laboratory laboratory NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 17 17 testing testing NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 17 18 showed show VBD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 17 19 that that IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 17 20 many many JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 17 21 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 17 22 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 17 23 genes gene NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 17 24 in in IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 17 25 this this DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 17 26 new new JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 17 27 virus virus NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 17 28 were be VBD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 17 29 very very RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 17 30 similar similar JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 17 31 to to IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 17 32 those those DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 17 33 found find VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 17 34 in in IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 17 35 pigs pig NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 17 36 in in IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 17 37 North North NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 17 38 America America NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 17 39 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 18 1 Further further RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 18 2 on on RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 18 3 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 18 4 it -PRON- PRP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 18 5 has have VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 18 6 been be VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 18 7 found find VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 18 8 that that IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 18 9 this this DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 18 10 new new JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 18 11 virus virus NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 18 12 has have VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 18 13 gene gene NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 18 14 segments segment NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 18 15 from from IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 18 16 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 18 17 swine swine NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 18 18 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 18 19 avian avian JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 18 20 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 18 21 and and CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 18 22 human human JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 18 23 flu flu NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 18 24 virus virus NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 18 25 genes gene NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 18 26 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 19 1 The the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 19 2 scientists scientist NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 19 3 call call VBP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 19 4 this this DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 19 5 a a DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 19 6 " " `` cord-001549-m5qabh1k 19 7 quadruple quadruple JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 19 8 reassortant reassortant JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 19 9 " " '' cord-001549-m5qabh1k 19 10 virus virus NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 19 11 and and CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 20 1 hence hence RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 20 2 this this DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 20 3 new new JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 20 4 ( ( -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 20 5 novel novel NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 20 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 20 7 virus virus NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 20 8 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 20 9 christened christen VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 20 10 " " `` cord-001549-m5qabh1k 20 11 influenza influenza NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 20 12 - - : cord-001549-m5qabh1k 20 13 A a NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 20 14 ( ( -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 20 15 H1N1 H1N1 NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 20 16 ) ) -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 20 17 virus virus NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 20 18 " " '' cord-001549-m5qabh1k 20 19 [ [ -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 20 20 1 1 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 20 21 ] ] -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 20 22 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 21 1 A a DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 21 2 reassorted reassorted JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 21 3 influenza influenza NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 21 4 was be VBD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 21 5 first first RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 21 6 detected detect VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 21 7 in in IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 21 8 Mexico Mexico NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 21 9 on on IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 21 10 March March NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 21 11 18 18 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 21 12 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 21 13 2009 2009 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 21 14 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 21 15 and and CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 21 16 rapidly rapidly RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 21 17 spread spread VBD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 21 18 to to IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 21 19 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 21 20 United United NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 21 21 States States NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 21 22 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 21 23 Canada Canada NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 21 24 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 21 25 and and CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 21 26 subsequently subsequently RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 21 27 all all DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 21 28 regions region NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 21 29 worldwide worldwide RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 21 30 including include VBG cord-001549-m5qabh1k 21 31 India India NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 21 32 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 22 1 The the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 22 2 first first JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 22 3 case case NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 22 4 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 22 5 H1N1 H1N1 NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 22 6 was be VBD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 22 7 reported report VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 22 8 in in IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 22 9 India India NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 22 10 on on IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 22 11 May May NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 22 12 17 17 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 22 13 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 22 14 2009 2009 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 22 15 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 22 16 at at IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 22 17 Hyderabad Hyderabad NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 22 18 Airport Airport NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 22 19 in in IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 22 20 a a DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 22 21 young young JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 22 22 boy boy NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 22 23 who who WP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 22 24 travelled travel VBD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 22 25 from from IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 22 26 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 22 27 USA USA NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 22 28 and and CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 22 29 later later RBR cord-001549-m5qabh1k 22 30 it -PRON- PRP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 22 31 spread spread VBD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 22 32 throughout throughout IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 22 33 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 22 34 country country NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 22 35 [ [ -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 22 36 2 2 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 22 37 ] ] -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 22 38 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 23 1 According accord VBG cord-001549-m5qabh1k 23 2 to to IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 23 3 World World NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 23 4 Health Health NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 23 5 Organization Organization NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 23 6 ( ( -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 23 7 WHO who WP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 23 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 23 9 update update NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 23 10 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 23 11 November November NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 23 12 20 20 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 23 13 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 23 14 2009 2009 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 23 15 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 23 16 virus virus NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 23 17 spread spread VBD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 23 18 across across IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 23 19 more more JJR cord-001549-m5qabh1k 23 20 than than IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 23 21 206 206 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 23 22 countries country NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 23 23 resulting result VBG cord-001549-m5qabh1k 23 24 in in IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 23 25 6770 6770 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 23 26 deaths death NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 23 27 [ [ -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 23 28 3 3 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 23 29 ] ] -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 23 30 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 24 1 In in IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 24 2 June June NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 24 3 2009 2009 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 24 4 World World NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 24 5 Health Health NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 24 6 Organization Organization NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 24 7 ( ( -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 24 8 WHO who WP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 24 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 24 10 raised raise VBD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 24 11 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 24 12 level level NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 24 13 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 24 14 pandemic pandemic NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 24 15 alert alert NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 24 16 phase phase NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 24 17 5 5 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 24 18 to to TO cord-001549-m5qabh1k 24 19 phase phase VB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 24 20 6 6 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 24 21 [ [ -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 24 22 4 4 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 24 23 ] ] -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 24 24 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 25 1 According accord VBG cord-001549-m5qabh1k 25 2 to to IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 25 3 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 25 4 Directorate Directorate NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 25 5 General General NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 25 6 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 25 7 Health Health NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 25 8 Services Services NNPS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 25 9 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 25 10 Government Government NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 25 11 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 25 12 India India NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 25 13 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 25 14 New New NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 25 15 Delhi Delhi NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 25 16 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 25 17 update update NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 25 18 on on IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 25 19 November November NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 25 20 19 19 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 25 21 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 25 22 2009 2009 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 25 23 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 25 24 there there EX cord-001549-m5qabh1k 25 25 have have VBP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 25 26 been be VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 25 27 16044 16044 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 25 28 laboratories laboratory NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 25 29 confirming confirm VBG cord-001549-m5qabh1k 25 30 cases case NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 25 31 recorded record VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 25 32 in in IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 25 33 India India NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 25 34 resulting result VBG cord-001549-m5qabh1k 25 35 in in IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 25 36 537 537 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 25 37 deaths death NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 25 38 [ [ -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 25 39 5 5 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 25 40 ] ] -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 25 41 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 26 1 To to TO cord-001549-m5qabh1k 26 2 formulate formulate VB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 26 3 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 26 4 valid valid JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 26 5 and and CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 26 6 reliable reliable JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 26 7 estimate estimate NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 26 8 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 26 9 transmissibility transmissibility NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 26 10 and and CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 26 11 spread spread NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 26 12 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 26 13 an an DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 26 14 outbreak outbreak NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 26 15 we -PRON- PRP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 26 16 have have VBP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 26 17 utilised utilise VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 26 18 statistical statistical JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 26 19 modelling modelling NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 26 20 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 26 21 which which WDT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 26 22 facilitates facilitate VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 26 23 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 26 24 understanding understanding NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 26 25 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 26 26 mechanism mechanism NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 26 27 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 26 28 disease disease NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 26 29 spread spread NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 26 30 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 27 1 To to TO cord-001549-m5qabh1k 27 2 access access VB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 27 3 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 27 4 intensity intensity NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 27 5 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 27 6 an an DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 27 7 outbreak outbreak NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 27 8 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 27 9 transmission transmission NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 27 10 potential potential NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 27 11 can can MD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 27 12 be be VB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 27 13 quantified quantify VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 27 14 by by IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 27 15 reproduction reproduction NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 27 16 number number NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 27 17 0 0 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 27 18 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 27 19 that that RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 27 20 is is RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 27 21 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 27 22 average average JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 27 23 number number NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 27 24 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 27 25 secondary secondary JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 27 26 cases case NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 27 27 generated generate VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 27 28 by by IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 27 29 a a DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 27 30 single single JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 27 31 primary primary JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 27 32 case case NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 27 33 in in IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 27 34 a a DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 27 35 completely completely RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 27 36 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 27 37 population population NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 27 38 [ [ -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 27 39 6 6 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 27 40 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 27 41 7 7 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 27 42 ] ] -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 27 43 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 28 1 The the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 28 2 importance importance NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 28 3 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 28 4 basic basic JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 28 5 reproduction reproduction NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 28 6 number number NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 28 7 0 0 NFP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 28 8 becomes become VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 28 9 more more RBR cord-001549-m5qabh1k 28 10 apparent apparent JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 28 11 when when WRB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 28 12 an an DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 28 13 emerging emerge VBG cord-001549-m5qabh1k 28 14 infectious infectious JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 28 15 disease disease NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 28 16 strikes strike VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 28 17 a a DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 28 18 population population NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 28 19 which which WDT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 28 20 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 28 21 a a DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 28 22 key key JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 28 23 concept concept NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 28 24 in in IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 28 25 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 28 26 epidemic epidemic NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 28 27 theory theory NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 28 28 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 29 1 If if IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 29 2 0 0 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 29 3 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 29 4 less less JJR cord-001549-m5qabh1k 29 5 than than IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 29 6 or or CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 29 7 equal equal JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 29 8 to to IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 29 9 one one CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 29 10 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 29 11 then then RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 29 12 transmission transmission NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 29 13 in in IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 29 14 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 29 15 population population NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 29 16 goes go VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 29 17 stochastically stochastically RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 29 18 extinct extinct JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 29 19 with with IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 29 20 probability probability NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 29 21 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 29 22 one one CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 29 23 after after IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 29 24 a a DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 29 25 small small JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 29 26 number number NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 29 27 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 29 28 infections infection NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 29 29 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 30 1 If if IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 30 2 0 0 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 30 3 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 30 4 greater great JJR cord-001549-m5qabh1k 30 5 than than IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 30 6 1 1 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 30 7 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 30 8 then then RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 30 9 there there EX cord-001549-m5qabh1k 30 10 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 30 11 a a DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 30 12 positive positive JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 30 13 probability probability NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 30 14 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 30 15 a a DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 30 16 large large JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 30 17 epidemic epidemic NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 30 18 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 31 1 Statistical statistical JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 31 2 estimation estimation NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 31 3 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 31 4 0 0 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 31 5 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 31 6 used use VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 31 7 to to TO cord-001549-m5qabh1k 31 8 understand understand VB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 31 9 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 31 10 transmission transmission NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 31 11 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 31 12 and and CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 31 13 evolution evolution NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 31 14 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 31 15 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 31 16 infectious infectious JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 31 17 disease disease NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 31 18 which which WDT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 31 19 facilitate facilitate VBP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 31 20 designing design VBG cord-001549-m5qabh1k 31 21 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 31 22 effective effective JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 31 23 public public JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 31 24 health health NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 31 25 intervention intervention NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 31 26 strategies strategy NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 31 27 and and CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 31 28 mitigation mitigation NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 31 29 policies policy NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 31 30 [ [ -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 31 31 8 8 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 31 32 ] ] -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 31 33 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 32 1 The the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 32 2 aim aim NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 32 3 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 32 4 present present JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 32 5 study study NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 32 6 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 32 7 to to TO cord-001549-m5qabh1k 32 8 quantify quantify VB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 32 9 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 32 10 intensity intensity NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 32 11 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 32 12 pandemic pandemic NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 32 13 influenza influenza NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 32 14 A A NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 32 15 / / SYM cord-001549-m5qabh1k 32 16 H1N1 H1N1 NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 32 17 2009 2009 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 32 18 in in IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 32 19 India India NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 32 20 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 33 1 To to TO cord-001549-m5qabh1k 33 2 achieve achieve VB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 33 3 this this DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 33 4 goal goal NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 33 5 we -PRON- PRP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 33 6 have have VBP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 33 7 calculated calculate VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 33 8 basic basic JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 33 9 reproduction reproduction NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 33 10 number number NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 33 11 from from IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 33 12 time time NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 33 13 series series NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 33 14 data datum NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 33 15 set set VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 33 16 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 33 17 H1N1 H1N1 NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 33 18 through through IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 33 19 Bayesian Bayesian NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 33 20 approach approach NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 33 21 to to TO cord-001549-m5qabh1k 33 22 contact contact NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 33 23 patterns pattern NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 33 24 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 34 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 34 2 have have VBP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 34 3 estimated estimate VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 34 4 basic basic JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 34 5 reproduction reproduction NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 34 6 number number NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 34 7 0 0 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 34 8 with with IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 34 9 95 95 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 34 10 % % NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 34 11 credible credible JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 34 12 interval interval NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 34 13 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 35 1 Time Time NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 35 2 series series NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 35 3 data datum NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 35 4 for for IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 35 5 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 35 6 2009 2009 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 35 7 influenza influenza NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 35 8 A A NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 35 9 / / SYM cord-001549-m5qabh1k 35 10 H1N1 H1N1 NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 35 11 pandemic pandemic NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 35 12 in in IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 35 13 India India NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 35 14 was be VBD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 35 15 obtained obtain VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 35 16 from from IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 35 17 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 35 18 Ministry Ministry NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 35 19 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 35 20 Health Health NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 35 21 and and CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 35 22 Family Family NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 35 23 Welfare Welfare NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 35 24 ( ( -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 35 25 MoHFW MoHFW NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 35 26 ) ) -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 35 27 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 35 28 Government Government NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 35 29 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 35 30 India India NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 35 31 [ [ -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 35 32 9 9 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 35 33 ] ] -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 35 34 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 36 1 31,924 31,924 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 36 2 infected infect VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 36 3 cases case NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 36 4 with with IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 36 5 1525 1525 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 36 6 deaths death NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 36 7 were be VBD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 36 8 reported report VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 36 9 during during IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 36 10 May May NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 36 11 17 17 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 36 12 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 36 13 2009 2009 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 36 14 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 36 15 to to IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 36 16 May May NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 36 17 17 17 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 36 18 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 36 19 2010 2010 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 36 20 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 36 21 with with IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 36 22 two two CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 36 23 complete complete JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 36 24 waves wave NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 36 25 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 36 26 epidemic epidemic NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 36 27 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 37 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 37 2 have have VBP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 37 3 represented represent VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 37 4 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 37 5 data datum NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 37 6 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 37 7 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 37 8 first first JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 37 9 wave wave NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 37 10 from from IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 37 11 May May NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 37 12 to to IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 37 13 October October NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 37 14 2009 2009 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 37 15 ( ( -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 37 16 see see VB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 37 17 Figure figure NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 37 18 1 1 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 37 19 ) ) -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 37 20 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 38 1 For for IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 38 2 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 38 3 analysis analysis NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 38 4 we -PRON- PRP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 38 5 have have VBP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 38 6 used use VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 38 7 daily daily RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 38 8 reported report VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 38 9 cases case NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 38 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 38 11 incidence incidence NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 38 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 38 13 for for IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 38 14 initial initial JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 38 15 phase phase NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 38 16 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 38 17 an an DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 38 18 epidemic epidemic NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 38 19 from from IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 38 20 June June NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 38 21 11 11 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 38 22 to to IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 38 23 August August NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 38 24 13 13 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 38 25 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 38 26 2009 2009 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 38 27 [ [ -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 38 28 10 10 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 38 29 ] ] -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 38 30 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 39 1 Statistical statistical JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 39 2 inference inference NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 39 3 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 39 4 0 0 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 39 5 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 39 6 still still RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 39 7 in in IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 39 8 progress progress NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 39 9 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 39 10 and and CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 39 11 it -PRON- PRP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 39 12 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 39 13 recognized recognize VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 39 14 that that IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 39 15 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 39 16 estimate estimate NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 39 17 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 39 18 very very RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 39 19 sensitive sensitive JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 39 20 to to IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 39 21 dispersal dispersal NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 39 22 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 39 23 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 39 24 disease disease NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 39 25 progression progression NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 39 26 [ [ -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 39 27 11 11 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 39 28 ] ] -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 39 29 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 40 1 Estimation estimation NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 40 2 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 40 3 0 0 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 40 4 can can MD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 40 5 be be VB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 40 6 illustrated illustrate VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 40 7 by by IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 40 8 employing employ VBG cord-001549-m5qabh1k 40 9 time time NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 40 10 - - HYPH cord-001549-m5qabh1k 40 11 since since IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 40 12 - - HYPH cord-001549-m5qabh1k 40 13 infection infection NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 40 14 model model NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 40 15 and and CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 40 16 suggests suggest VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 40 17 origin origin NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 40 18 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 40 19 transmission transmission NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 40 20 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 40 21 infectious infectious JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 40 22 diseases disease NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 40 23 which which WDT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 40 24 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 40 25 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 40 26 counterpart counterpart NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 40 27 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 40 28 compartmental compartmental JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 40 29 models model NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 40 30 like like IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 40 31 SI SI NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 40 32 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 40 33 SIS SIS NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 40 34 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 40 35 and and CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 40 36 so so RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 40 37 forth forth RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 40 38 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 41 1 Both both DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 41 2 models model NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 41 3 are be VBP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 41 4 originated originate VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 41 5 in in IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 41 6 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 41 7 basic basic JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 41 8 paper paper NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 41 9 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 41 10 Kermack Kermack NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 41 11 and and CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 41 12 McKendrick McKendrick NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 41 13 [ [ -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 41 14 12 12 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 41 15 ] ] -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 41 16 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 41 17 and and CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 41 18 both both CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 41 19 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 41 20 SIR SIR NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 41 21 model model NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 41 22 and and CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 41 23 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 41 24 simplest simple JJS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 41 25 time time NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 41 26 - - HYPH cord-001549-m5qabh1k 41 27 since since IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 41 28 - - HYPH cord-001549-m5qabh1k 41 29 infection infection NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 41 30 model model NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 41 31 are be VBP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 41 32 known know VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 41 33 as as IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 41 34 " " `` cord-001549-m5qabh1k 41 35 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 41 36 Kermack Kermack NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 41 37 - - HYPH cord-001549-m5qabh1k 41 38 McKendrick McKendrick NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 41 39 age age NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 41 40 structure structure NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 41 41 model model NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 41 42 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 42 1 " " `` cord-001549-m5qabh1k 42 2 It -PRON- PRP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 42 3 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 42 4 used use VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 42 5 to to TO cord-001549-m5qabh1k 42 6 identify identify VB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 42 7 key key JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 42 8 epidemiological epidemiological JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 42 9 parameter parameter NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 42 10 by by IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 42 11 using use VBG cord-001549-m5qabh1k 42 12 a a DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 42 13 simple simple JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 42 14 renewal renewal NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 42 15 process process NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 42 16 which which WDT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 42 17 adheres adhere VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 42 18 to to IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 42 19 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 42 20 basic basic JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 42 21 reproduction reproduction NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 42 22 number number NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 42 23 0 0 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 42 24 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 43 1 Let let VB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 43 2 ( ( -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 43 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 43 4 represent represent VB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 43 5 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 43 6 number number NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 43 7 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 43 8 new new JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 43 9 infections infection NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 43 10 or or CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 43 11 incidence incidence NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 43 12 at at IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 43 13 calendar calendar NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 43 14 time time NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 43 15 ; ; : cord-001549-m5qabh1k 43 16 that that RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 43 17 is is RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 43 18 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 43 19 each each DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 43 20 infected infect VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 43 21 individual individual NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 43 22 on on IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 43 23 an an DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 43 24 average average NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 43 25 generates generate VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 43 26 secondary secondary JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 43 27 cases case NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 43 28 at at IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 43 29 a a DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 43 30 rate rate NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 43 31 ( ( -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 43 32 ) ) -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 43 33 at at IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 43 34 timesince timesince NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 43 35 - - HYPH cord-001549-m5qabh1k 43 36 infection infection NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 43 37 which which WDT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 43 38 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 43 39 a a DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 43 40 specific specific JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 43 41 case case NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 43 42 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 43 43 renewal renewal NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 43 44 equation equation NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 43 45 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 43 46 birth birth NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 43 47 process process NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 43 48 [ [ -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 43 49 13 13 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 43 50 ] ] -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 44 1 [ [ -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 44 2 14 14 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 44 3 ] ] -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 44 4 [ [ -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 44 5 15 15 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 44 6 ] ] -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 44 7 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 45 1 Consider consider VB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 45 2 ( ( -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 45 3 1 1 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 45 4 ) ) -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 46 1 Since since IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 46 2 0 0 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 46 3 represents represent VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 46 4 average average JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 46 5 number number NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 46 6 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 46 7 secondary secondary JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 46 8 cases case NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 46 9 that that WDT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 46 10 a a DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 46 11 primary primary JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 46 12 case case NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 46 13 generates generate VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 46 14 during during IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 46 15 entire entire JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 46 16 his -PRON- PRP$ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 46 17 / / SYM cord-001549-m5qabh1k 46 18 her -PRON- PRP$ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 46 19 infectious infectious JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 46 20 period period NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 46 21 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 46 22 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 46 23 estimate estimate NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 46 24 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 46 25 given give VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 46 26 by by IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 46 27 [ [ -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 46 28 16 16 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 46 29 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 46 30 17 17 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 46 31 ] ] -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 46 32 _SP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 47 1 Under under IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 47 2 Kermack Kermack NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 47 3 and and CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 47 4 McKendrick McKendrick NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 47 5 assumption assumption NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 47 6 " " `` cord-001549-m5qabh1k 47 7 single single JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 47 8 infection infection NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 47 9 causes cause VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 47 10 an an DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 47 11 independent independent JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 47 12 process process NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 47 13 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 47 14 infection infection NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 47 15 with with IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 47 16 host host NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 47 17 " " '' cord-001549-m5qabh1k 47 18 which which WDT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 47 19 allows allow VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 47 20 an an DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 47 21 age age NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 47 22 representation representation NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 47 23 for for IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 47 24 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 47 25 state state NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 47 26 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 47 27 infection infection NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 47 28 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 47 29 that that RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 47 30 is is RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 47 31 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 47 32 infectivity infectivity NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 47 33 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 47 34 an an DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 47 35 individual individual NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 47 36 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 1 The the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 2 time time NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 3 elapsed elapse VBD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 4 since since IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 5 infection infection NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 6 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 7 called call VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 8 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 9 infection infection NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 10 age age NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 11 or or CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 12 time time NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 13 since since IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 14 infection infection NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 15 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 16 whereas whereas IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 17 ( ( -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 19 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 20 expected expect VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 21 infectivity infectivity NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 22 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 23 an an DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 24 individual individual NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 25 with with IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 26 time time NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 27 - - HYPH cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 28 since since IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 29 - - HYPH cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 30 infection infection NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 31 whereas whereas IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 32 ( ( -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 33 ) ) -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 34 becomes become VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 35 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 36 rate rate NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 37 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 38 secondary secondary JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 39 transmission transmission NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 40 per per IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 41 single single JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 42 primary primary JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 43 case case NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 44 at at IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 45 time time NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 46 - - HYPH cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 47 sinceinfection sinceinfection NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 48 [ [ -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 49 18 18 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 50 ] ] -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 51 : : : cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 52 where where WRB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 53 ( ( -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 54 ) ) -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 55 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 56 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 57 transmission transmission NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 58 rate rate NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 59 which which WDT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 60 depends depend VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 61 on on IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 62 frequency frequency NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 63 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 64 contact contact NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 65 and and CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 66 infectiousness infectiousness NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 67 at at IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 68 infection infection NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 69 age age NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 70 and and CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 71 Γ Γ NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 72 ( ( -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 73 ) ) -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 74 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 75 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 76 probability probability NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 77 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 78 being be VBG cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 79 infectious infectious JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 80 at at IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 81 infection infection NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 82 age age NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 48 83 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 49 1 Further further RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 49 2 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 49 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 49 4 consider consider VBP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 49 5 a a DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 49 6 probability probability NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 49 7 density density NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 49 8 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 49 9 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 49 10 generation generation NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 49 11 time time NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 49 12 where where WRB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 49 13 generation generation NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 49 14 time time NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 49 15 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 49 16 defined define VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 49 17 as as IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 49 18 time time NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 49 19 from from IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 49 20 infection infection NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 49 21 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 49 22 an an DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 49 23 individual individual NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 49 24 to to IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 49 25 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 49 26 infection infection NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 49 27 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 49 28 a a DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 49 29 secondary secondary JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 49 30 case case NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 49 31 by by IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 49 32 that that DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 49 33 individual individual NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 49 34 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 49 35 denoted denote VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 49 36 by by IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 49 37 ( ( -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 49 38 ) ) -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 49 39 through through IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 49 40 normalized normalize VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 49 41 density density NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 49 42 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 49 43 secondary secondary JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 49 44 transmission transmission NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 49 45 [ [ -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 49 46 16 16 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 49 47 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 49 48 17 17 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 49 49 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 49 50 19 19 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 49 51 ] ] -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 49 52 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 50 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 50 2 have have VBP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 50 3 Using use VBG cord-001549-m5qabh1k 50 4 ( ( -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 50 5 5 5 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 50 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 50 7 in in IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 50 8 ( ( -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 50 9 4 4 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 50 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 51 1 we -PRON- PRP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 51 2 get get VBP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 51 3 Then then RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 51 4 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 51 5 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 51 6 basic basic JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 51 7 reproduction reproduction NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 51 8 number number NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 51 9 0 0 NFP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 51 10 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 51 11 as as IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 51 12 in in IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 52 1 In in IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 52 2 reality reality NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 52 3 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 52 4 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 52 5 case case NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 52 6 incidences incidence NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 52 7 are be VBP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 52 8 rather rather RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 52 9 in in IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 52 10 discrete discrete JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 52 11 form form NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 52 12 as as IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 52 13 daily daily JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 52 14 / / SYM cord-001549-m5qabh1k 52 15 weekly weekly JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 52 16 reports report NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 52 17 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 1 The the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 2 discretized discretized JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 3 analogy analogy NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 4 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 5 ( ( -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 6 7 7 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 8 can can MD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 9 be be VB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 10 derived derive VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 11 as as IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 12 Computational Computational NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 13 By by IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 14 taking take VBG cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 15 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 16 inverse inverse NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 17 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 18 both both DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 19 sides side NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 20 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 21 ( ( -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 22 8) 8) LS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 23 we -PRON- PRP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 24 get get VBP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 25 where where WRB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 26 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 27 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 28 discretized discretize VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 29 form form NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 30 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 31 time time NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 32 since since IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 33 infection infection NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 34 ( ( -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 35 usually usually RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 36 in in IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 37 days day NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 38 ) ) -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 39 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 40 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 41 discretized discretize VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 42 calendar calendar NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 43 time time NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 44 ( ( -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 45 usually usually RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 46 in in IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 47 days day NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 48 / / SYM cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 49 weeks week NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 50 ) ) -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 51 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 52 and and CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 53 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 54 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 55 generation generation NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 56 time time NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 57 distribution distribution NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 58 for for IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 59 an an DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 60 infectious infectious JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 61 disease disease NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 62 which which WDT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 63 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 64 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 65 probability probability NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 66 distribution distribution NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 67 function function NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 68 for for IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 69 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 70 time time NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 71 from from IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 72 infection infection NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 73 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 74 an an DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 75 individual individual NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 76 to to IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 77 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 78 infection infection NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 79 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 80 a a DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 81 secondary secondary JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 82 case case NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 83 by by IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 84 that that DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 85 individual individual JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 86 [ [ -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 87 19 19 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 88 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 89 20 20 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 90 ] ] -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 53 91 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 54 1 From from IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 54 2 Figure figure NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 54 3 2 2 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 54 4 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 54 5 concept concept NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 54 6 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 54 7 0 0 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 54 8 through through IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 54 9 contact contact NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 54 10 patterns pattern NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 54 11 has have VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 54 12 been be VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 54 13 illustrated illustrate VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 54 14 here here RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 54 15 before before IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 54 16 taking take VBG cord-001549-m5qabh1k 54 17 up up RP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 54 18 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 54 19 Bayesian bayesian JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 54 20 method method NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 54 21 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 54 22 estimation estimation NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 54 23 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 55 1 From from IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 55 2 Figure figure NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 55 3 2 2 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 55 4 ( ( -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 55 5 a a NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 55 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 55 7 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 55 8 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 55 9 transmission transmission NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 55 10 tree tree NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 55 11 with with IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 55 12 0 0 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 55 13 = = SYM cord-001549-m5qabh1k 55 14 2 2 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 55 15 represents represent VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 55 16 who who WP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 55 17 infected infect VBD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 55 18 whom whom WP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 55 19 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 55 20 where where WRB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 55 21 each each DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 55 22 primary primary JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 55 23 case case NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 55 24 on on IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 55 25 an an DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 55 26 average average NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 55 27 generates generate VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 55 28 " " `` cord-001549-m5qabh1k 55 29 2 2 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 55 30 " " '' cord-001549-m5qabh1k 55 31 secondary secondary JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 55 32 cases case NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 55 33 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 56 1 Secondary secondary JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 56 2 transmissions transmission NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 56 3 from from IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 56 4 primary primary JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 56 5 to to IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 56 6 secondary secondary JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 56 7 cases case NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 56 8 are be VBP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 56 9 given give VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 56 10 by by IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 56 11 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 56 12 basic basic JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 56 13 reproduction reproduction NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 56 14 number number NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 56 15 0 0 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 56 16 = = SYM cord-001549-m5qabh1k 56 17 2 2 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 56 18 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 57 1 From from IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 57 2 Figure figure NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 57 3 2 2 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 57 4 ( ( -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 57 5 b b NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 57 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 57 7 restructuring restructure VBG cord-001549-m5qabh1k 57 8 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 57 9 transmission transmission NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 57 10 tree tree NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 57 11 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 57 12 given give VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 57 13 that that IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 57 14 all all PDT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 57 15 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 57 16 potential potential JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 57 17 contacts contact NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 57 18 made make VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 57 19 by by IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 57 20 primary primary JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 57 21 cases case NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 57 22 with with IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 57 23 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 57 24 probability probability NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 57 25 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 57 26 each each DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 57 27 possible possible JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 57 28 contact contact NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 57 29 resulted result VBD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 57 30 in in IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 57 31 a a DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 57 32 secondary secondary JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 57 33 transmission transmission NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 57 34 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 57 35 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 57 36 1/ 1/ CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 57 37 0 0 NFP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 57 38 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 58 1 This this DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 58 2 type type NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 58 3 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 58 4 transmission transmission NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 58 5 tree tree NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 58 6 represents represent VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 58 7 who who WP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 58 8 infected infect VBD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 58 9 whom whom WP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 58 10 which which WDT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 58 11 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 58 12 unobservable unobservable JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 58 13 in in IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 58 14 nature nature NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 58 15 unless unless IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 58 16 rigorous rigorous JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 58 17 contact contact NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 58 18 tracing tracing NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 58 19 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 58 20 implemented implement VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 58 21 [ [ -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 58 22 21 21 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 58 23 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 58 24 22 22 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 58 25 ] ] -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 58 26 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 59 1 The the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 59 2 numerator numerator NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 59 3 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 59 4 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 59 5 right right JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 59 6 hand hand NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 59 7 side side NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 59 8 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 59 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 59 10 9 9 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 59 11 ) ) -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 59 12 represents represent VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 59 13 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 59 14 total total JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 59 15 number number NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 59 16 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 59 17 effective effective JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 59 18 contacts contact NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 59 19 made make VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 59 20 by by IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 59 21 a a DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 59 22 possible possible JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 59 23 primary primary JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 59 24 case case NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 59 25 in in IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 59 26 day day NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 59 27 / / SYM cord-001549-m5qabh1k 59 28 weeks week NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 59 29 which which WDT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 59 30 have have VBP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 59 31 an an DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 59 32 equal equal JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 59 33 probability probability NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 59 34 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 59 35 resulting result VBG cord-001549-m5qabh1k 59 36 in in IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 59 37 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 59 38 secondary secondary JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 59 39 transmission transmission NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 60 1 ; ; : cord-001549-m5qabh1k 60 2 that that RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 60 3 is is RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 60 4 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 60 5 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 60 6 probability probability NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 60 7 that that IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 60 8 a a DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 60 9 secondary secondary JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 60 10 case case NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 60 11 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 60 12 linked link VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 60 13 to to IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 60 14 an an DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 60 15 effective effective JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 60 16 contact contact NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 60 17 made make VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 60 18 by by IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 60 19 a a DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 60 20 single single JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 60 21 primary primary JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 60 22 case case NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 60 23 at at IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 60 24 time time NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 60 25 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 60 26 given give VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 60 27 by by IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 60 28 1/ 1/ CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 60 29 0 0 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 60 30 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 61 1 Effective effective JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 61 2 contacts contact NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 61 3 lead lead VBP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 61 4 to to IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 61 5 potential potential JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 61 6 secondary secondary JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 61 7 cases case NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 61 8 with with IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 61 9 equal equal JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 61 10 chance chance NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 61 11 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 61 12 getting get VBG cord-001549-m5qabh1k 61 13 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 61 14 infection infection NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 61 15 from from IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 61 16 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 61 17 primary primary JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 61 18 cases case NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 61 19 at at IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 61 20 time time NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 61 21 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 62 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 62 2 has have VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 62 3 been be VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 62 4 seen see VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 62 5 that that IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 62 6 every every DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 62 7 contact contact NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 62 8 does do VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 62 9 not not RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 62 10 lead lead VB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 62 11 to to IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 62 12 successful successful JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 62 13 transmission transmission NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 62 14 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 62 15 infection infection NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 62 16 ; ; : cord-001549-m5qabh1k 62 17 that that RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 62 18 is is RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 62 19 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 62 20 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 62 21 effective effective JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 62 22 contacts contact NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 62 23 are be VBP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 62 24 uncertain uncertain JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 62 25 which which WDT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 62 26 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 62 27 defined define VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 62 28 as as IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 62 29 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 62 30 contact contact NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 62 31 that that WDT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 62 32 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 62 33 sufficient sufficient JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 62 34 to to TO cord-001549-m5qabh1k 62 35 lead lead VB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 62 36 to to IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 62 37 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 62 38 transmission transmission NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 62 39 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 62 40 infection infection NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 62 41 between between IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 62 42 infectious infectious JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 62 43 and and CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 62 44 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 62 45 population population NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 62 46 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 63 1 The the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 63 2 total total JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 63 3 number number NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 63 4 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 63 5 effective effective JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 63 6 contacts contact NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 63 7 made make VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 63 8 by by IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 63 9 a a DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 63 10 potential potential JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 63 11 primary primary JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 63 12 case case NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 63 13 at at IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 63 14 time time NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 63 15 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 63 16 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 63 17 sum sum NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 63 18 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 63 19 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 63 20 product product NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 63 21 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 63 22 incidence incidence NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 63 23 cases case NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 63 24 and and CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 63 25 generation generation NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 63 26 time time NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 63 27 distribution distribution NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 63 28 during during IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 63 29 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 63 30 generation generation NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 63 31 interval interval NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 63 32 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 63 33 length length NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 63 34 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 64 1 This this DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 64 2 indicates indicate VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 64 3 a a DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 64 4 simple simple JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 64 5 binomial binomial JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 64 6 law law NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 64 7 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 64 8 uncertainty uncertainty NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 64 9 in in IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 64 10 effective effective JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 64 11 contacts contact NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 64 12 [ [ -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 64 13 22 22 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 64 14 ] ] -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 64 15 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 65 1 Total total JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 65 2 number number NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 65 3 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 65 4 effective effective JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 65 5 contacts contact NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 65 6 become become VBP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 65 7 = = NFP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 66 1 ∑ ∑ NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 66 2 = = SYM cord-001549-m5qabh1k 66 3 0 0 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 66 4 − − NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 66 5 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 66 6 during during IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 66 7 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 66 8 th th NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 66 9 day day NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 66 10 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 66 11 that that RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 66 12 is is RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 66 13 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 66 14 ∼ ∼ NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 66 15 Bin Bin NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 66 16 ( ( -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 66 17 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 66 18 1/ 1/ CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 66 19 0 0 NFP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 66 20 ) ) -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 66 21 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 66 22 ∀ ∀ NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 66 23 = = SYM cord-001549-m5qabh1k 66 24 1 1 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 66 25 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 66 26 2 2 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 66 27 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 66 28 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 66 29 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 66 30 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 67 1 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 67 2 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 67 3 where where WRB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 67 4 1/ 1/ CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 67 5 0 0 NFP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 67 6 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 67 7 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 67 8 probability probability NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 67 9 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 67 10 effective effective JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 67 11 contacts contact NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 67 12 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 68 1 Let let VB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 68 2 denote denote VB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 68 3 incidence incidence NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 68 4 or or CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 68 5 new new JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 68 6 cases case NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 68 7 at at IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 68 8 calendar calendar NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 68 9 time time NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 68 10 and and CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 68 11 denotes denote VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 68 12 generation generation NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 68 13 time time NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 68 14 distribution distribution NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 68 15 at at IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 68 16 time time NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 68 17 - - HYPH cord-001549-m5qabh1k 68 18 sinceinfection sinceinfection NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 68 19 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 69 1 Then then RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 69 2 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 69 3 probability probability NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 69 4 mass mass NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 69 5 function function NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 69 6 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 69 7 effective effective JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 69 8 contacts contact NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 69 9 becomes become VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 69 10 _SP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 69 11 The the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 69 12 likelihood likelihood NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 69 13 function function NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 69 14 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 69 15 1/ 1/ CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 69 16 0 0 NFP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 69 17 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 69 18 as as IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 69 19 follows follow VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 69 20 : : : cord-001549-m5qabh1k 70 1 Here here RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 70 2 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 70 3 Bayesian bayesian JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 70 4 inferential inferential JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 70 5 approach approach NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 70 6 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 70 7 used use VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 70 8 to to TO cord-001549-m5qabh1k 70 9 estimate estimate VB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 70 10 parameter parameter NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 70 11 0 0 NFP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 70 12 which which WDT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 70 13 provides provide VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 70 14 us -PRON- PRP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 70 15 with with IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 70 16 different different JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 70 17 but but CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 70 18 related related JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 70 19 estimate estimate NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 70 20 by by IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 70 21 combining combine VBG cord-001549-m5qabh1k 70 22 prior prior JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 70 23 belief belief NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 70 24 and and CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 70 25 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 70 26 evidence evidence NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 70 27 observed observe VBD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 70 28 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 71 1 As as IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 71 2 more more JJR cord-001549-m5qabh1k 71 3 evidence evidence NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 71 4 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 71 5 gathered gather VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 71 6 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 71 7 prior prior JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 71 8 distribution distribution NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 71 9 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 71 10 modified modify VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 71 11 into into IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 71 12 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 71 13 posterior posterior JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 71 14 distribution distribution NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 71 15 that that WDT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 71 16 represents represent VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 71 17 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 71 18 uncertainty uncertainty NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 71 19 over over IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 71 20 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 71 21 parameter parameter NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 71 22 values value NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 71 23 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 72 1 Posterior posterior JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 72 2 distribution distribution NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 72 3 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 72 4 derived derive VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 72 5 from from IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 72 6 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 72 7 Bayes Bayes NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 72 8 formula formula NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 72 9 [ [ -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 72 10 23 23 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 72 11 ] ] -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 72 12 where where WRB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 72 13 ∫ ∫ NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 72 14 ⋅ ⋅ NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 72 15 Θ Θ NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 72 16 ( ( -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 72 17 / / NFP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 72 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 72 19 ( ( -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 72 20 ) ) -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 72 21 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 72 22 a a DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 72 23 normalization normalization NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 72 24 constant constant JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 72 25 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 72 26 indicated indicate VBD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 72 27 data datum NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 72 28 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 72 29 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 72 30 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 72 31 unknown unknown JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 72 32 quantity quantity NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 72 33 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 72 34 ( ( -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 72 35 ) ) -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 72 36 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 72 37 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 72 38 prior prior JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 72 39 distribution distribution NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 72 40 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 72 41 ( ( -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 72 42 / / NFP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 72 43 ) ) -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 73 1 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 73 2 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 73 3 likelihood likelihood NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 73 4 function function NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 73 5 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 73 6 and and CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 73 7 posterior posterior JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 73 8 distribution distribution NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 73 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 73 10 / / NFP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 73 11 ) ) -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 73 12 completely completely RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 73 13 describes describe VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 73 14 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 73 15 uncertainty uncertainty NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 73 16 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 74 1 There there EX cord-001549-m5qabh1k 74 2 are be VBP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 74 3 two two CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 74 4 key key JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 74 5 advantages advantage NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 74 6 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 74 7 Bayesian bayesian JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 74 8 theory theory NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 74 9 : : : cord-001549-m5qabh1k 74 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 74 11 i i NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 74 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 74 13 once once IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 74 14 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 74 15 uncertainty uncertainty NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 74 16 in in IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 74 17 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 74 18 posterior posterior JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 74 19 distribution distribution NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 74 20 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 74 21 expressed express VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 74 22 via via IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 74 23 probability probability NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 74 24 distribution distribution NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 74 25 then then RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 74 26 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 74 27 statistical statistical JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 74 28 inference inference NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 74 29 can can MD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 74 30 be be VB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 74 31 automated automate VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 74 32 and and CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 74 33 ( ( -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 74 34 ii ii NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 74 35 ) ) -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 74 36 available available JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 74 37 prior prior JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 74 38 information information NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 74 39 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 74 40 reasonably reasonably RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 74 41 incorporated incorporated JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 74 42 into into IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 74 43 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 74 44 statistical statistical JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 74 45 model model NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 74 46 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 75 1 Now now RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 75 2 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 75 3 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 75 4 posterior posterior JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 75 5 estimate estimate NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 75 6 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 75 7 parameter parameter NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 75 8 0 0 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 75 9 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 75 10 derived derive VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 75 11 using use VBG cord-001549-m5qabh1k 75 12 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 75 13 prior prior JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 75 14 information information NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 75 15 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 75 16 where where WRB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 75 17 likelihood likelihood NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 75 18 function function NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 75 19 follows follow VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 75 20 binomial binomial JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 75 21 distribution distribution NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 75 22 with with IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 75 23 conjugate conjugate NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 75 24 prior prior RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 75 25 as as IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 75 26 beta beta NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 75 27 distribution distribution NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 75 28 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 75 29 first first JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 75 30 kind kind NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 75 31 [ [ -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 75 32 24 24 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 75 33 ] ] -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 75 34 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 76 1 That that RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 76 2 is is RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 76 3 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 76 4 1/ 1/ CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 76 5 0 0 NFP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 77 1 ∼ ∼ NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 77 2 Beta Beta NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 77 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 77 4 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 77 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 77 6 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 77 7 with with IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 77 8 realistic realistic JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 77 9 choice choice NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 77 10 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 77 11 parameters parameter NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 77 12 ( ( -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 77 13 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 77 14 ): ): XX cord-001549-m5qabh1k 78 1 Now now RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 78 2 posterior posterior JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 78 3 distribution distribution NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 78 4 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 78 5 1/ 1/ CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 78 6 0 0 NFP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 78 7 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 78 8 proportional proportional JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 78 9 to to IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 78 10 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 78 11 likelihood likelihood NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 78 12 times time NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 78 13 prior prior RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 78 14 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 79 1 Therefore therefore RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 79 2 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 79 3 We -PRON- PRP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 79 4 are be VBP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 79 5 interested interested JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 79 6 in in IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 79 7 estimating estimate VBG cord-001549-m5qabh1k 79 8 0 0 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 79 9 with with IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 79 10 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 79 11 95 95 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 79 12 % % NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 79 13 credible credible JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 79 14 interval interval NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 79 15 ( ( -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 79 16 CrI CrI NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 79 17 ) ) -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 79 18 which which WDT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 79 19 has have VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 79 20 been be VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 79 21 derived derive VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 79 22 by by IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 79 23 considering consider VBG cord-001549-m5qabh1k 79 24 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 79 25 sampling sampling NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 79 26 transformation transformation NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 79 27 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 79 28 1/ 1/ CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 79 29 0 0 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 79 30 through through IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 79 31 simulation simulation NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 79 32 from from IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 79 33 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 79 34 above above JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 79 35 posterior posterior JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 79 36 distribution distribution NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 79 37 with with IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 79 38 different different JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 79 39 choices choice NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 79 40 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 79 41 priors prior NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 79 42 for for IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 79 43 beta beta NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 79 44 distribution distribution NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 79 45 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 80 1 Theoretically theoretically RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 80 2 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 80 3 it -PRON- PRP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 80 4 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 80 5 hard hard JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 80 6 to to TO cord-001549-m5qabh1k 80 7 find find VB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 80 8 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 80 9 posterior posterior JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 80 10 distribution distribution NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 80 11 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 80 12 0 0 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 80 13 where where WRB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 80 14 1/ 1/ CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 80 15 0 0 NFP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 80 16 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 80 17 a a DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 80 18 beta beta NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 80 19 variable variable NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 80 20 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 81 1 Through through IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 81 2 simulation simulation NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 81 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 81 4 have have VBP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 81 5 generated generate VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 81 6 10000 10000 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 81 7 samples sample NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 81 8 from from IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 81 9 beta beta JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 81 10 posterior posterior JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 81 11 distribution distribution NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 81 12 and and CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 81 13 also also RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 81 14 estimated estimate VBD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 81 15 95 95 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 81 16 % % NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 81 17 CrI. CrI. NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 82 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 82 2 have have VBP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 82 3 considered consider VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 82 4 beta beta NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 82 5 distribution distribution NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 82 6 with with IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 82 7 several several JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 82 8 combinations combination NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 82 9 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 82 10 mean mean JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 82 11 ( ( -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 82 12 ranges range VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 82 13 from from IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 82 14 0.4 0.4 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 82 15 to to IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 82 16 0.8 0.8 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 82 17 ) ) -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 82 18 and and CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 82 19 accordingly accordingly RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 82 20 we -PRON- PRP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 82 21 chose choose VBD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 82 22 different different JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 82 23 values value NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 82 24 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 82 25 ( ( -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 82 26 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 82 27 ) ) -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 82 28 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 83 1 The the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 83 2 second second JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 83 3 and and CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 83 4 fourth fourth JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 83 5 column column NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 83 6 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 83 7 Table table NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 83 8 1 1 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 83 9 represent represent VBP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 83 10 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 83 11 estimates estimate NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 83 12 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 83 13 0 0 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 83 14 which which WDT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 83 15 are be VBP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 83 16 posterior posterior JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 83 17 means mean NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 83 18 along along IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 83 19 with with IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 83 20 95 95 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 83 21 % % NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 84 1 CrI. CrI. NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 84 2 Figure Figure NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 84 3 3 3 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 84 4 displays display VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 84 5 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 84 6 posterior posterior JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 84 7 distribution distribution NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 84 8 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 84 9 0 0 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 84 10 with with IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 84 11 different different JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 84 12 prior prior JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 84 13 choices choice NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 84 14 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 85 1 Generation generation NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 85 2 time time NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 85 3 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 85 4 another another DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 85 5 most most RBS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 85 6 important important JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 85 7 characteristic characteristic NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 85 8 in in IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 85 9 infectious infectious JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 85 10 disease disease NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 85 11 epidemiology epidemiology NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 85 12 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 85 13 since since IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 85 14 0 0 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 85 15 indicates indicate VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 85 16 only only RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 85 17 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 85 18 average average JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 85 19 number number NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 85 20 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 85 21 secondary secondary JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 85 22 infections infection NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 85 23 one one CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 85 24 primary primary JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 85 25 infection infection NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 85 26 produces produce VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 85 27 in in IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 85 28 one one CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 85 29 disease disease NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 85 30 generation generation NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 85 31 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 86 1 When when WRB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 86 2 we -PRON- PRP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 86 3 consider consider VBP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 86 4 disease disease NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 86 5 transmission transmission NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 86 6 in in IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 86 7 real real JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 86 8 time time NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 86 9 scale scale NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 86 10 such such JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 86 11 as as IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 86 12 days day NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 86 13 or or CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 86 14 weeks week NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 86 15 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 86 16 it -PRON- PRP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 86 17 matters matter VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 86 18 a a DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 86 19 lot lot NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 86 20 how how WRB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 86 21 long long JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 86 22 one one CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 86 23 disease disease NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 86 24 generation generation NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 86 25 lasts last VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 86 26 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 87 1 Generation generation NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 87 2 time time NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 87 3 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 87 4 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 87 5 average average JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 87 6 time time NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 87 7 taken take VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 87 8 for for IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 87 9 secondary secondary JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 87 10 infections infection NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 87 11 produced produce VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 87 12 by by IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 87 13 a a DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 87 14 primary primary JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 87 15 infection infection NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 87 16 [ [ -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 87 17 25 25 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 87 18 ] ] -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 87 19 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 88 1 Generation generation NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 88 2 interval interval NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 88 3 or or CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 88 4 generation generation NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 88 5 time time NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 88 6 distribution distribution NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 88 7 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 88 8 assumed assume VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 88 9 to to TO cord-001549-m5qabh1k 88 10 be be VB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 88 11 known know VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 88 12 as as IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 88 13 Weibull Weibull NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 88 14 distribution distribution NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 88 15 which which WDT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 88 16 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 88 17 a a DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 88 18 biologically biologically RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 88 19 plausible plausible JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 88 20 choice choice NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 88 21 [ [ -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 88 22 20 20 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 88 23 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 88 24 [ [ -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 88 25 26 26 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 88 26 ] ] -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 89 1 [ [ -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 89 2 27 27 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 89 3 ] ] -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 89 4 [ [ -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 89 5 28 28 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 89 6 ] ] -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 89 7 with with IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 89 8 a a DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 89 9 mean mean NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 89 10 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 89 11 1.78 1.78 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 89 12 and and CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 89 13 2.48 2.48 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 89 14 days day NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 89 15 and and CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 89 16 a a DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 89 17 standard standard JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 89 18 deviation deviation NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 89 19 ( ( -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 89 20 SD sd NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 89 21 ) ) -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 89 22 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 89 23 0.66 0.66 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 89 24 and and CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 89 25 1.06 1.06 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 89 26 days day NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 89 27 for for IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 89 28 = = SYM cord-001549-m5qabh1k 89 29 7 7 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 89 30 and and CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 89 31 10 10 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 89 32 days day NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 89 33 [ [ -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 89 34 29 29 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 89 35 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 89 36 30 30 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 89 37 ] ] -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 90 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 90 2 Tables Tables NNPS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 90 3 S1 S1 NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 90 4 and and CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 90 5 S2 S2 NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 90 6 Computational Computational NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 90 7 and and CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 90 8 Mathematical Mathematical NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 90 9 Methods Methods NNPS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 90 10 in in IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 90 11 Medicine Medicine NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 91 1 All all PDT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 91 2 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 91 3 sensitivity sensitivity NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 91 4 analysis analysis NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 91 5 was be VBD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 91 6 done do VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 91 7 by by IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 91 8 using use VBG cord-001549-m5qabh1k 91 9 MATLAB MATLAB NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 91 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 91 11 Supplementary Supplementary NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 91 12 Material Material NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 91 13 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 91 14 Algorithm Algorithm NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 91 15 ) ) -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 91 16 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 92 1 Sensitivity sensitivity NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 92 2 analysis analysis NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 92 3 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 92 4 a a DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 92 5 statistical statistical JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 92 6 technique technique NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 92 7 which which WDT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 92 8 provides provide VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 92 9 insight insight NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 92 10 into into IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 92 11 how how WRB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 92 12 uncertainty uncertainty NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 92 13 in in IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 92 14 input input NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 92 15 variables variable NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 92 16 affects affect VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 92 17 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 92 18 model model NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 92 19 outputs output NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 92 20 and and CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 92 21 which which WDT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 92 22 input input NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 92 23 variable variable NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 92 24 tends tend VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 92 25 to to TO cord-001549-m5qabh1k 92 26 derive derive VB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 92 27 variation variation NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 92 28 in in IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 92 29 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 92 30 outputs output NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 92 31 [ [ -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 92 32 31 31 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 92 33 ] ] -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 92 34 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 93 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 93 2 performed perform VBD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 93 3 sensitivity sensitivity NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 93 4 analysis analysis NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 93 5 to to TO cord-001549-m5qabh1k 93 6 quantify quantify VB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 93 7 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 93 8 effect effect NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 93 9 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 93 10 changes change NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 93 11 on on IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 93 12 0 0 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 93 13 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 94 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 94 2 has have VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 94 3 been be VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 94 4 used use VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 94 5 to to TO cord-001549-m5qabh1k 94 6 determine determine VB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 94 7 how how WRB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 94 8 sensitive sensitive JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 94 9 an an DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 94 10 estimate estimate NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 94 11 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 94 12 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 94 13 parameter parameter NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 94 14 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 94 15 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 95 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 95 2 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 95 3 usually usually RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 95 4 performed perform VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 95 5 as as IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 95 6 series series NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 95 7 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 95 8 tests test NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 95 9 in in IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 95 10 which which WDT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 95 11 one one PRP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 95 12 can can MD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 95 13 use use VB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 95 14 different different JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 95 15 set set NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 95 16 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 95 17 hyperparameter hyperparameter NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 95 18 values value NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 95 19 to to TO cord-001549-m5qabh1k 95 20 see see VB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 95 21 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 95 22 change change NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 95 23 in in IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 95 24 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 95 25 estimate estimate NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 95 26 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 96 1 Our -PRON- PRP$ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 96 2 analysis analysis NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 96 3 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 96 4 based base VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 96 5 on on IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 96 6 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 96 7 pandemic pandemic NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 96 8 influenza influenza NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 96 9 A A NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 96 10 / / SYM cord-001549-m5qabh1k 96 11 H1N1 H1N1 NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 96 12 in in IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 96 13 India India NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 96 14 2009 2009 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 96 15 through through IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 96 16 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 96 17 Bayesian bayesian JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 96 18 estimates estimate NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 96 19 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 96 20 basic basic JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 96 21 reproduction reproduction NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 96 22 number number NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 96 23 ; ; : cord-001549-m5qabh1k 96 24 we -PRON- PRP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 96 25 used use VBD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 96 26 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 96 27 daily daily JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 96 28 reported report VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 96 29 cases case NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 96 30 to to TO cord-001549-m5qabh1k 96 31 calculate calculate VB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 96 32 effective effective JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 96 33 contacts contact NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 96 34 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 97 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 97 2 have have VBP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 97 3 calculated calculate VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 97 4 posterior posterior JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 97 5 distribution distribution NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 97 6 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 97 7 0 0 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 97 8 using use VBG cord-001549-m5qabh1k 97 9 prior prior RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 97 10 as as IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 97 11 beta beta NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 97 12 distribution distribution NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 97 13 with with IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 97 14 different different JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 97 15 values value NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 97 16 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 97 17 parameter parameter NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 97 18 choices choice NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 97 19 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 98 1 From from IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 98 2 Figure figure NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 98 3 1 1 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 98 4 we -PRON- PRP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 98 5 have have VBP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 98 6 seen see VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 98 7 that that IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 98 8 as as IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 98 9 prior prior JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 98 10 choice choice NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 98 11 changes change VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 98 12 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 98 13 shape shape NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 98 14 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 98 15 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 98 16 posterior posterior JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 98 17 distribution distribution NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 98 18 also also RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 98 19 changes change VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 98 20 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 99 1 The the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 99 2 estimates estimate NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 99 3 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 99 4 0 0 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 99 5 for for IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 99 6 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 99 7 2009 2009 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 99 8 H1N1 H1N1 NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 99 9 influenza influenza NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 99 10 pandemic pandemic NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 99 11 were be VBD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 99 12 mainly mainly RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 99 13 reported report VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 99 14 based base VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 99 15 on on IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 99 16 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 99 17 data datum NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 99 18 obtained obtain VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 99 19 in in IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 99 20 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 99 21 first first JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 99 22 few few JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 99 23 months month NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 99 24 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 99 25 pandemic pandemic NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 99 26 or or CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 99 27 based base VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 99 28 on on IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 99 29 whole whole JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 99 30 first first JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 99 31 wave wave NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 99 32 data datum NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 99 33 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 100 1 Most Most JJS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 100 2 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 100 3 these these DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 100 4 0 0 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 100 5 estimates estimate NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 100 6 ranges range VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 100 7 from from IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 100 8 1.1 1.1 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 100 9 to to TO cord-001549-m5qabh1k 100 10 2 2 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 100 11 [ [ -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 100 12 32 32 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 100 13 ] ] -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 101 1 [ [ -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 101 2 33 33 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 101 3 ] ] -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 102 1 [ [ -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 102 2 34 34 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 102 3 ] ] -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 102 4 [ [ -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 102 5 35 35 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 102 6 ] ] -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 102 7 [ [ -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 102 8 36 36 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 102 9 ] ] -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 102 10 [ [ -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 102 11 37 37 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 102 12 ] ] -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 102 13 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 103 1 Our -PRON- PRP$ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 103 2 estimated estimate VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 103 3 value value NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 103 4 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 103 5 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 103 6 basic basic JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 103 7 reproduction reproduction NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 103 8 number number NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 103 9 indicates indicate VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 103 10 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 103 11 milder mild JJR cord-001549-m5qabh1k 103 12 intensity intensity NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 103 13 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 103 14 disease disease NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 103 15 transmission transmission NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 103 16 in in IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 103 17 India India NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 103 18 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 104 1 Interestingly interestingly RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 104 2 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 104 3 this this DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 104 4 estimated estimate VBD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 104 5 0 0 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 104 6 with with IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 104 7 95 95 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 104 8 % % NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 104 9 credible credible JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 104 10 interval interval NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 104 11 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 104 12 consistent consistent JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 104 13 with with IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 104 14 several several JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 104 15 other other JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 104 16 studies study NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 104 17 on on IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 104 18 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 104 19 same same JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 104 20 strain strain NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 104 21 [ [ -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 104 22 35 35 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 104 23 ] ] -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 104 24 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 104 25 along along IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 104 26 with with IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 104 27 many many JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 104 28 European european JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 104 29 countries country NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 104 30 [ [ -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 104 31 28 28 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 104 32 ] ] -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 104 33 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 105 1 Notably notably RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 105 2 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 105 3 it -PRON- PRP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 105 4 has have VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 105 5 a a DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 105 6 smaller small JJR cord-001549-m5qabh1k 105 7 credible credible JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 105 8 length length NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 105 9 which which WDT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 105 10 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 105 11 more more RBR cord-001549-m5qabh1k 105 12 reliable reliable JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 105 13 estimate estimate NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 105 14 ; ; : cord-001549-m5qabh1k 105 15 see see VB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 105 16 Table table NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 105 17 1 1 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 105 18 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 106 1 Statistical statistical JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 106 2 inference inference NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 106 3 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 106 4 0 0 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 106 5 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 106 6 based base VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 106 7 on on IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 106 8 incidence incidence NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 106 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 106 10 reported report VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 106 11 cases case NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 106 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 106 13 and and CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 106 14 known know VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 106 15 generation generation NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 106 16 time time NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 106 17 distribution distribution NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 106 18 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 107 1 Some some DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 107 2 differences difference NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 107 3 among among IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 107 4 these these DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 107 5 estimates estimate NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 107 6 are be VBP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 107 7 due due JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 107 8 to to IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 107 9 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 107 10 choice choice NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 107 11 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 107 12 generation generation NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 107 13 time time NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 107 14 distribution distribution NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 107 15 because because IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 107 16 0 0 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 107 17 estimation estimation NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 107 18 relies rely VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 107 19 much much JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 107 20 on on IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 107 21 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 107 22 assumptions assumption NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 107 23 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 107 24 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 107 25 generation generation NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 107 26 time time NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 107 27 distribution distribution NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 107 28 [ [ -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 107 29 38 38 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 107 30 ] ] -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 107 31 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 108 1 In in IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 108 2 general general JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 108 3 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 108 4 shorter short JJR cord-001549-m5qabh1k 108 5 mean mean VB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 108 6 generation generation NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 108 7 time time NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 108 8 may may MD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 108 9 lead lead VB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 108 10 to to IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 108 11 smaller small JJR cord-001549-m5qabh1k 108 12 0 0 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 108 13 estimates estimate NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 108 14 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 109 1 Since since IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 109 2 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 109 3 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 109 4 estimate estimate NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 109 5 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 109 6 0 0 NFP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 109 7 crucially crucially RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 109 8 depends depend VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 109 9 on on IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 109 10 generation generation NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 109 11 time time NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 109 12 distribution distribution NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 109 13 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 110 1 From from IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 110 2 Table table NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 110 3 1 1 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 110 4 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 110 5 we -PRON- PRP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 110 6 conclude conclude VBP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 110 7 that that IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 110 8 generation generation NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 110 9 time time NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 110 10 or or CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 110 11 infectiousness infectiousness NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 110 12 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 110 13 an an DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 110 14 individual individual NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 110 15 affects affect VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 110 16 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 110 17 basic basic JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 110 18 reproduction reproduction NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 110 19 number number NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 110 20 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 111 1 This this DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 111 2 method method NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 111 3 does do VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 111 4 not not RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 111 5 require require VB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 111 6 exponential exponential JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 111 7 growth growth NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 111 8 assumption assumption NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 111 9 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 112 1 Still still RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 112 2 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 112 3 estimate estimate NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 112 4 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 112 5 greater great JJR cord-001549-m5qabh1k 112 6 than than IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 112 7 one one CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 112 8 so so RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 112 9 one one PRP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 112 10 has have VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 112 11 to to TO cord-001549-m5qabh1k 112 12 make make VB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 112 13 effort effort NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 112 14 in in IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 112 15 controlling control VBG cord-001549-m5qabh1k 112 16 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 112 17 disease disease NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 112 18 through through IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 112 19 control control NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 112 20 strategies strategy NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 112 21 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 112 22 which which WDT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 112 23 are be VBP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 112 24 typically typically RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 112 25 targeted target VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 112 26 to to TO cord-001549-m5qabh1k 112 27 bring bring VB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 112 28 this this DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 112 29 number number NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 112 30 below below IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 112 31 one one CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 112 32 and and CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 112 33 maintain maintain VB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 112 34 it -PRON- PRP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 112 35 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 112 36 as as IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 112 37 this this DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 112 38 will will MD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 112 39 lead lead VB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 112 40 to to IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 112 41 eventual eventual JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 112 42 extinction extinction NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 112 43 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 112 44 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 112 45 epidemic epidemic NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 112 46 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 113 1 Limitations limitation NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 113 2 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 114 1 This this DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 114 2 method method NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 114 3 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 114 4 applied apply VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 114 5 only only RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 114 6 for for IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 114 7 initial initial JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 114 8 stage stage NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 114 9 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 114 10 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 114 11 epidemic epidemic NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 114 12 ( ( -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 114 13 exponential exponential JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 114 14 phase phase NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 114 15 ) ) -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 114 16 when when WRB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 114 17 there there EX cord-001549-m5qabh1k 114 18 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 114 19 no no DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 114 20 intervention intervention NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 114 21 like like IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 114 22 quarantine quarantine NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 114 23 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 114 24 isolation isolation NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 114 25 vaccination vaccination NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 114 26 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 114 27 and and CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 114 28 so so RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 114 29 forth forth RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 114 30 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 115 1 If if IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 115 2 basic basic JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 115 3 reproduction reproduction NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 115 4 number number NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 115 5 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 115 6 0 0 NFP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 115 7 < < XX cord-001549-m5qabh1k 115 8 1 1 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 115 9 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 115 10 then then RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 115 11 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 115 12 probability probability NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 115 13 1/ 1/ CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 115 14 0 0 NFP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 115 15 terminates terminate VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 115 16 because because IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 115 17 it -PRON- PRP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 115 18 exceeds exceed VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 115 19 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 115 20 law law NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 115 21 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 115 22 probability probability NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 115 23 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 116 1 Pandemic Pandemic NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 116 2 Influenza Influenza NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 116 3 : : : cord-001549-m5qabh1k 117 1 A a DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 117 2 H1N1 H1N1 NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 117 3 Clinical Clinical NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 117 4 Management Management NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 117 5 Protocol Protocol NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 117 6 and and CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 117 7 Infection Infection NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 117 8 Control Control NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 117 9 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 117 10 Guidelines Guidelines NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 117 11 pandemic pandemic NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 117 12 H1N1 H1N1 NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 117 13 2009-update 2009-update CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 117 14 World World NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 117 15 Health Health NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 117 16 Organization Organization NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 117 17 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 117 18 Pandemic Pandemic NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 117 19 ( ( -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 117 20 H1N1 H1N1 NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 117 21 ) ) -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 117 22 2009-Update 2009-update CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 117 23 99 99 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 117 24 Ministry Ministry NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 117 25 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 117 26 Health Health NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 117 27 and and CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 117 28 Family Family NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 117 29 Welfare Welfare NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 117 30 and and CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 117 31 Government Government NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 117 32 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 117 33 India India NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 117 34 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 117 35 Pandemic Pandemic NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 117 36 Influenza Influenza NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 117 37 A A NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 117 38 / / SYM cord-001549-m5qabh1k 117 39 H1N1 H1N1 NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 118 1 On on IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 118 2 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 118 3 definition definition NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 118 4 and and CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 118 5 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 118 6 computation computation NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 118 7 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 118 8 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 118 9 basic basic JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 118 10 reproduction reproduction NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 118 11 ratio ratio NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 118 12 R r NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 118 13 0 0 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 118 14 in in IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 118 15 models model NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 118 16 for for IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 118 17 infectious infectious JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 118 18 diseases disease NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 118 19 in in IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 118 20 heterogeneous heterogeneous JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 118 21 populations population NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 118 22 Infectious infectious JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 118 23 Diseases disease NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 118 24 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 118 25 Humans Humans NNPS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 118 26 : : : cord-001549-m5qabh1k 118 27 Dynamics dynamic NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 118 28 and and CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 118 29 Control Control NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 119 1 The the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 119 2 estimation estimation NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 119 3 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 119 4 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 119 5 basic basic JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 119 6 reproduction reproduction NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 119 7 number number NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 119 8 for for IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 119 9 infectious infectious JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 119 10 diseases disease NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 119 11 Ministry Ministry NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 119 12 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 119 13 Health Health NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 119 14 and and CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 119 15 Family Family NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 119 16 Welfare Welfare NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 119 17 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 119 18 Government Government NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 119 19 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 119 20 India India NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 120 1 The the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 120 2 transmission transmission NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 120 3 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 120 4 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 120 5 pandemic pandemic NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 120 6 influenza influenza NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 120 7 A A NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 120 8 / / SYM cord-001549-m5qabh1k 120 9 H1N1 H1N1 NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 120 10 2009 2009 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 120 11 - - SYM cord-001549-m5qabh1k 120 12 2010 2010 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 120 13 in in IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 120 14 India India NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 120 15 Improving improve VBG cord-001549-m5qabh1k 120 16 estimates estimate NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 120 17 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 120 18 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 120 19 basic basic JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 120 20 reproductive reproductive JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 120 21 ratio ratio NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 120 22 : : : cord-001549-m5qabh1k 120 23 using use VBG cord-001549-m5qabh1k 120 24 both both CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 120 25 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 120 26 mean mean NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 120 27 and and CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 120 28 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 120 29 dispersal dispersal NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 120 30 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 120 31 transition transition NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 120 32 times time VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 120 33 A a DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 120 34 contribution contribution NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 120 35 to to IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 120 36 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 120 37 mathematical mathematical JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 120 38 theory theory NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 120 39 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 120 40 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 120 41 On on IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 120 42 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 120 43 integral integral JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 120 44 equation equation NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 120 45 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 120 46 renewal renewal NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 120 47 theory theory NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 121 1 The the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 121 2 intrinsic intrinsic JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 121 3 rate rate NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 121 4 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 121 5 increase increase NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 121 6 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 121 7 HIV HIV NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 121 8 / / SYM cord-001549-m5qabh1k 121 9 AIDS AIDS NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 121 10 : : : cord-001549-m5qabh1k 121 11 epidemiological epidemiological JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 121 12 and and CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 121 13 evolutionary evolutionary JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 121 14 implications implication NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 122 1 The the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 122 2 concept concept NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 122 3 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 122 4 R R NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 122 5 0 0 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 122 6 in in IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 122 7 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 122 8 epidemic epidemic NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 122 9 theory theory NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 123 1 The the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 123 2 Dynamics dynamic NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 123 3 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 123 4 Physiologically physiologically RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 123 5 Structured structured JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 123 6 Populations Populations NNPS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 124 1 How how WRB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 124 2 generation generation NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 124 3 intervals interval NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 124 4 shape shape VBP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 124 5 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 124 6 relationship relationship NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 124 7 between between IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 124 8 growth growth NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 124 9 rates rate NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 124 10 and and CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 124 11 reproductive reproductive JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 124 12 numbers number NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 124 13 Quantifying quantify VBG cord-001549-m5qabh1k 124 14 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 124 15 transmission transmission NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 124 16 potential potential NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 124 17 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 124 18 pandemic pandemic NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 124 19 influenza influenza NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 124 20 A a DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 124 21 note note NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 124 22 on on IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 124 23 generation generation NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 124 24 times time NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 124 25 in in IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 124 26 epidemic epidemic NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 124 27 models model NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 125 1 Different different JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 125 2 epidemic epidemic NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 125 3 curves curve NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 125 4 for for IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 125 5 severe severe JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 125 6 acute acute JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 125 7 respiratory respiratory JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 125 8 syndrome syndrome NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 125 9 reveal reveal VBP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 125 10 similar similar JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 125 11 impacts impact NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 125 12 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 125 13 control control NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 125 14 measures measure NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 126 1 The the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 126 2 construction construction NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 126 3 and and CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 126 4 analysis analysis NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 126 5 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 126 6 epidemic epidemic NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 126 7 trees tree NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 126 8 with with IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 126 9 reference reference NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 126 10 to to IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 126 11 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 126 12 2001 2001 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 126 13 UK UK NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 126 14 foot foot NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 126 15 - - HYPH cord-001549-m5qabh1k 126 16 and and CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 126 17 - - HYPH cord-001549-m5qabh1k 126 18 mouth mouth NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 126 19 outbreak outbreak NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 126 20 Correcting correct VBG cord-001549-m5qabh1k 126 21 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 126 22 actual actual JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 126 23 reproduction reproduction NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 126 24 number number NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 126 25 : : : cord-001549-m5qabh1k 126 26 a a DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 126 27 simple simple JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 126 28 method method NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 126 29 to to TO cord-001549-m5qabh1k 126 30 estimate estimate VB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 126 31 R0 R0 NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 126 32 from from IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 126 33 early early JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 126 34 epidemic epidemic NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 126 35 growth growth NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 126 36 data datum NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 126 37 Monte Monte NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 126 38 Carlo Carlo NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 126 39 Statistical Statistical NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 126 40 Methods Methods NNPS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 126 41 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 126 42 Springer Springer NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 126 43 Texts Texts NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 126 44 in in IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 126 45 Statistics Statistics NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 126 46 Bayesian Bayesian NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 126 47 Statistics Statistics NNPS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 126 48 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 126 49 Academic Academic NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 126 50 Class Class NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 126 51 Notes Notes NNPS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 126 52 Epidemiology Epidemiology NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 126 53 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 126 54 transmission transmission NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 126 55 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 126 56 and and CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 126 57 control control NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 126 58 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 126 59 SARS SARS NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 126 60 : : : cord-001549-m5qabh1k 126 61 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 126 62 2002 2002 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 126 63 - - SYM cord-001549-m5qabh1k 126 64 2003 2003 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 126 65 epidemic epidemic NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 127 1 A a DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 127 2 likelihood likelihood NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 127 3 based base VBN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 127 4 method method NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 127 5 for for IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 127 6 real real JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 127 7 time time NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 127 8 estimation estimation NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 127 9 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 127 10 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 127 11 serial serial JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 127 12 interval interval NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 127 13 and and CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 127 14 reproductive reproductive JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 127 15 number number NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 127 16 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 127 17 an an DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 127 18 epidemic epidemic NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 128 1 The the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 128 2 transmissibility transmissibility NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 128 3 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 128 4 highly highly RB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 128 5 pathogenic pathogenic JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 128 6 avian avian JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 128 7 influenza influenza NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 128 8 in in IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 128 9 commercial commercial JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 128 10 poultry poultry NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 128 11 in in IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 128 12 industrialised industrialised JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 128 13 countries country NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 128 14 Estimation Estimation NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 128 15 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 128 16 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 128 17 serial serial JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 128 18 interval interval NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 128 19 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 128 20 influenza influenza NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 128 21 Household household NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 128 22 transmission transmission NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 128 23 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 128 24 2009 2009 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 128 25 pandemic pandemic NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 128 26 influenza influenza NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 128 27 A A NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 128 28 ( ( -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 128 29 H1N1 H1N1 NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 128 30 ) ) -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 128 31 virus virus NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 128 32 in in IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 128 33 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 128 34 United United NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 128 35 States States NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 129 1 St St NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 129 2 rategies rategie NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 129 3 for for IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 129 4 containing contain VBG cord-001549-m5qabh1k 129 5 an an DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 129 6 emerging emerge VBG cord-001549-m5qabh1k 129 7 influenza influenza NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 129 8 pandemic pandemic NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 129 9 in in IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 129 10 Southeast Southeast NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 129 11 Asia Asia NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 129 12 Uncertainty Uncertainty NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 129 13 and and CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 129 14 sensitivity sensitivity NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 129 15 analysis analysis NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 129 16 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 129 17 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 129 18 basic basic JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 129 19 reproduction reproduction NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 129 20 number number NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 129 21 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 129 22 a a DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 129 23 vaccinated vaccinated JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 129 24 epidemic epidemic NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 129 25 model model NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 129 26 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 129 27 influenza influenza NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 130 1 The the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 130 2 transmissibility transmissibility NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 130 3 and and CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 130 4 control control NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 130 5 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 130 6 pandemic pandemic NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 130 7 influenza influenza NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 130 8 a a DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 130 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 130 10 H1N1 H1N1 NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 130 11 ) ) -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 130 12 virus virus NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 131 1 The the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 131 2 early early JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 131 3 transmission transmission NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 131 4 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 131 5 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 131 6 H1N1pdm H1N1pdm NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 131 7 influenza influenza NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 131 8 in in IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 131 9 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 131 10 United United NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 131 11 Kingdom Kingdom NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 131 12 Initial Initial NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 131 13 human human JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 131 14 transmission transmission NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 131 15 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 131 16 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 131 17 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 131 18 pandemic pandemic NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 131 19 ( ( -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 132 1 H1N1 H1N1 NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 132 2 ) ) -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 132 3 2009 2009 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 132 4 virus virus NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 132 5 in in IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 132 6 North North NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 132 7 America America NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 132 8 Vaccination Vaccination NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 132 9 against against IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 132 10 pandemic pandemic NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 132 11 influenza influenza NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 132 12 A A NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 132 13 / / SYM cord-001549-m5qabh1k 132 14 H1N1v H1N1v NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 132 15 in in IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 132 16 England England NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 132 17 : : : cord-001549-m5qabh1k 132 18 a a DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 132 19 real real JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 132 20 - - HYPH cord-001549-m5qabh1k 132 21 time time NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 132 22 economic economic JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 132 23 evaluation evaluation NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 132 24 The the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 132 25 infection infection NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 132 26 attack attack NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 132 27 rate rate NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 132 28 and and CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 132 29 severity severity NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 132 30 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 132 31 2009 2009 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 132 32 pandemic pandemic NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 132 33 H1N1 H1N1 NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 132 34 influenza influenza NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 132 35 in in IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 132 36 Hong Hong NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 132 37 Kong Kong NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 132 38 Bayesian Bayesian NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 132 39 modeling model VBG cord-001549-m5qabh1k 132 40 to to TO cord-001549-m5qabh1k 132 41 unmask unmask VB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 132 42 and and CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 132 43 predict predict VB cord-001549-m5qabh1k 132 44 influenza influenza NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 132 45 A a NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 132 46 / / SYM cord-001549-m5qabh1k 132 47 H1N1pdm H1N1pdm NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 132 48 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 132 49 in in IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 132 50 London London NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 132 51 Time Time NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 132 52 variations variation NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 132 53 in in IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 132 54 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 132 55 transmissibility transmissibility NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 132 56 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 132 57 pandemic pandemic NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 132 58 influenza influenza NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 132 59 in in IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 132 60 Prussia Prussia NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 133 1 The the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 133 2 authors author NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 133 3 thank thank VBP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 133 4 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 133 5 University University NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 133 6 Grants Grants NNPS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 133 7 Commission Commission NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 133 8 ( ( -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 133 9 UGC UGC NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 133 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 133 11 through through IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 133 12 Research Research NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 133 13 Fellowship Fellowship NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 133 14 in in IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 133 15 Science Science NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 133 16 for for IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 133 17 Meritorious meritorious JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 133 18 Students student NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 133 19 ( ( -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 133 20 RFSMS RFSMS NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 133 21 ) ) -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 133 22 and and CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 134 1 DST DST NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 134 2 ( ( -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 134 3 Science Science NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 134 4 & & CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 134 5 Engineering Engineering NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 134 6 Research Research NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 134 7 Board Board NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 134 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 134 9 Project Project NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 134 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 134 11 no no UH cord-001549-m5qabh1k 134 12 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 135 1 SR SR NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 135 2 / / SYM cord-001549-m5qabh1k 135 3 S4 S4 NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 135 4 / / SYM cord-001549-m5qabh1k 135 5 MS MS NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 135 6 : : : cord-001549-m5qabh1k 135 7 396/10 396/10 CD cord-001549-m5qabh1k 135 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-001549-m5qabh1k 136 1 New New NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 136 2 Delhi Delhi NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 136 3 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 136 4 India India NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 136 5 , , , cord-001549-m5qabh1k 136 6 for for IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 136 7 research research NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 136 8 funding funding NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 136 9 support support NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 136 10 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 137 1 They -PRON- PRP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 137 2 are be VBP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 137 3 thankful thankful JJ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 137 4 to to IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 137 5 Sheikh Sheikh NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 137 6 Taslim Taslim NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 137 7 Ali Ali NNP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 137 8 for for IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 137 9 his -PRON- PRP$ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 137 10 motivation motivation NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 137 11 and and CC cord-001549-m5qabh1k 137 12 suggestions suggestion NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 137 13 . . . cord-001549-m5qabh1k 138 1 The the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 138 2 authors author NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 138 3 declare declare VBP cord-001549-m5qabh1k 138 4 that that IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 138 5 there there EX cord-001549-m5qabh1k 138 6 is be VBZ cord-001549-m5qabh1k 138 7 no no DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 138 8 conflict conflict NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 138 9 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 138 10 interests interest NNS cord-001549-m5qabh1k 138 11 regarding regard VBG cord-001549-m5qabh1k 138 12 the the DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 138 13 publication publication NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 138 14 of of IN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 138 15 this this DT cord-001549-m5qabh1k 138 16 paper paper NN cord-001549-m5qabh1k 138 17 . . .