# bib

id: cord-333132-m0tkgf7x
author: Ravi, Kumar Satish
date: 2020-04-28
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url: https://doi.org/10.1002/ase.1962
doi: 10.1002/ase.1962
summary:
  title: Dead Body Management in Times of Covid‐19 and its Potential Impact on the Availability of Cadavers for Medical Education in India Understanding the significance of dead body, Government of India, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Directorate General of Health Services (EMR Division) have issued guidelines of dead body management in view of Covid-19 pandemic. Considering the fact that novel Coronavirus is a new disease and there is a knowledge gap on best practices such as how to dispose the dead body of a suspect or confirmed case of Covid-19, the necessary guidelines were issued. Hence, the augmented risk of Covid-19 contamination from a dead body to healthcare professionals or relatives who follow standard precautions while handling the body is quite unlikely (Government of India, 2020) .

title:
  Dead Body Management in Times of Covid‐19 and its Potential Impact on the Availability of Cadavers for Medical Education in India

abstract:
  Technology integration in teaching is an evolving concept in modern medical education like other study disciplines in India. The domain of medical science education is presently deficient of deploying technology-based practices. Currently, majority of medical schools and colleges continue to choose traditional wet laboratory dissections over new virtual dissections which are being followed in institutions such as All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS) and handful of other governmental as well as private medical schools of India like AIIMS Rishikesh, AIIMS Jodhpur, Government Medical College Vimsar, Burla, Odisha, GSL Medical College Rajahmundry, Andhra Pradesh, Yennapoya University Mangalore, Dutta Megha Medical College, GMC Chindwara Madhya Pradesh, Symbiosis Institute Pune and Apollo Medical College Chitoor. Not to mention, as the current push for technology integration increases, it is likely that a large number of Indian academic scholars will begin seeing virtual dissections as beneficial to their classroom.


id: cord-333142-ek7hct52
author: Patel, Shivani A.
date: 2020-11-09
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url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33168004/
doi: 10.1186/s12913-020-05851-w
summary:
  title: The Integrated Tracking, Referral, and Electronic Decision Support, and Care Coordination (I-TREC) program: scalable strategies for the management of hypertension and diabetes within the government healthcare system of India The I-TREC program combines multiple evidence-based interventions: an electronic case record form (eCRF) to consolidate and track patient information and referrals across the publicly-funded healthcare system; an electronic clinical decision support system (CDSS) to assist clinicians to provide tailored guideline-based care to patients; a revised workflow to ensure coordinated care within and across facilities; and enhanced training for physicians and nurses regarding non-communicable disease (NCD) medical content and lifestyle management. Using patient health data from the eCRF, we will assess processes of care and changes in blood pressure and blood glucose outcomes over time among patients with hypertension or diabetes who seek care at I-TREC program facilities in a facility-based evaluation component.

title:
  The Integrated Tracking, Referral, and Electronic Decision Support, and Care Coordination (I-TREC) program: scalable strategies for the management of hypertension and diabetes within the government healthcare system of India

abstract:
  BACKGROUND: Hypertension and diabetes are among the most common and deadly chronic conditions globally. In India, most adults with these conditions remain undiagnosed, untreated, or poorly treated and uncontrolled. Innovative and scalable approaches to deliver proven-effective strategies for medical and lifestyle management of these conditions are needed. METHODS: The overall goal of this implementation science study is to evaluate the Integrated Tracking, Referral, Electronic decision support, and Care coordination (I-TREC) program. I-TREC leverages information technology (IT) to manage hypertension and diabetes in adults aged ≥30 years across the hierarchy of Indian public healthcare facilities. The I-TREC program combines multiple evidence-based interventions: an electronic case record form (eCRF) to consolidate and track patient information and referrals across the publicly-funded healthcare system; an electronic clinical decision support system (CDSS) to assist clinicians to provide tailored guideline-based care to patients; a revised workflow to ensure coordinated care within and across facilities; and enhanced training for physicians and nurses regarding non-communicable disease (NCD) medical content and lifestyle management. The program will be implemented and evaluated in a predominantly rural district of Punjab, India. The evaluation will employ a quasi-experimental design with mixed methods data collection. Evaluation indicators assess changes in the continuum of care for hypertension and diabetes and are grounded in the Reach, Effectiveness, Adoption Implementation, and Maintenance (RE-AIM) framework. Data will be triangulated from multiple sources, including community surveys, health facility assessments, stakeholder interviews, and patient-level data from the I-TREC program’s electronic database. DISCUSSION: I-TREC consolidates previously proven strategies for improved management of hypertension and diabetes at single-levels of the healthcare system into a scalable model for coordinated care delivery across all levels of the healthcare system hierarchy. Findings have the potential to inform best practices to ultimately deliver quality public-sector hypertension and diabetes care across India. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The study is registered with Clinical Trials Registry of India (registration number CTRI/2020/01/022723). The study was registered prior to the launch of the intervention on 13 January 2020. The current version of protocol is version 2 dated 6 June 2018.


id: cord-334538-g88ke56h
title: COVID Curve Guides India’s Health Infrastructure Growth Needs
author: Singh, Vaibhav Pratap
date: 2020-06-19
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url: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jen.2020.06.007
doi: 10.1016/j.jen.2020.06.007
summary:
  With lockdowns and severe 3 restrictions on movement and activities, countries have managed to slow down the COVID curve but 4 developing countries like India are likely to face a humongous task of containing the virus spread in 5 coming months. With lockdowns and severe 3 restrictions on movement and activities, countries have managed to slow down the COVID curve but 4 developing countries like India are likely to face a humongous task of containing the virus spread in 5 coming months. and have given the much needed time to the central and state governments to scale up the health 30 infrastructure as well as to sensitize the population on various preventive measures which will go a long 31 way in keeping the curve within control in the coming months.

abstract:
  COVID-19 has led to many unprecedented situations across the world. With lockdowns and severe restrictions on movement and activities, countries have managed to slow down the COVID curve but developing countries like India are likely to face a humongous task of containing the virus spread in coming months. High population density, continuing economic activities, movement of people etc. will keep causing newer hotspots across India. We look at the compounded daily growth rates (CDGR) of USA, Spain, India and Brazil over the duration of the virus spread since January, 2020. We also analyze the correlation between the total cases and active cases across India. We estimate the projected number of beds, ICU beds, oxygen support and ventilators for different CDGRs in the coming months and also define a metric target to control the virus spread through various preventive measures.


id: cord-334771-uy3s6443
author: Rao, BL
date: 2004-09-09
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url: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140673604169821
doi: 10.1016/s0140-6736(04)16982-1
summary:
  Samples obtained were: 54 blood samples, 22 throat swabs, ten CSF samples, and one brain aspirate from 55 patients with encephalitis; five blood samples and nine throat swabs from 13 fever cases; and ten blood samples and one throat swab from ten family contacts (including specimens from the brother and mother of a patient who Methods Cell lines and peripheral blood lymphocyte co-cultures were used to isolate the causative agent from clinical samples. The confirmed Chandipura virus encephalitis group consisted of individuals from whose samples we isolated the virus, viral RNA, or reactive IgM antibodies. The viruses isolated in different cell lines from clinical samples from patients with encephalitis were confirmed as Chandipura virus with various techniques including complement fixation, neutralisation test, and immunofluorescence assay. Moreover, the presence of Chandipura virus RNA in nine patients with encephalitis, all from samples obtained before day 4 after onset of illness, suggests an early viraemic phase of the infection process.

title:
  A large outbreak of acute encephalitis with high fatality rate in children in Andhra Pradesh, India, in 2003, associated with Chandipura virus

abstract:
  BACKGROUND: An outbreak of acute encephalitis of unknown origin with high case fatality (183 of 329 cases) was reported in children from Andhra Pradesh state in southern India during 2003. We investigated the causative agent. METHODS: Cell lines and peripheral blood lymphocyte co-cultures were used to isolate the causative agent from clinical samples. Identity of the agent was established by electron microscopy and serological and molecular assays. FINDINGS: Clinical samples tested negative for IgM antibodies to Japanese encephalitis, West Nile, dengue, and measles viruses, and for RNA of coronavirus, paramyxovirus, enterovirus, and influenza viruses. Virus was isolated from six patients with encephalitis and was identified as Chandipura virus by electron microscopy, complement fixation, and neutralisation tests. Chandipura virus RNA was detected in clinical samples from nine patients. Sequencing of five of these RNA samples showed 96·7–97·5% identity with the reference strain of 1965. Chandipura viral antigen and RNA were detected in brain tissue of a deceased child by immunofluorescent antibody test and PCR. Neutralising, IgG, and IgM antibodies to Chandipura virus were present in some patients' serum samples. Serum samples obtained after 4 days of illness were more frequently positive for IgM to Chandipura virus than were those obtained earlier (p<0·001). A similar trend was noted for neutralising antibodies. INTERPRETATION: Our findings suggest that this outbreak of acute encephalitis in Andhra Pradesh was associated with Chandipura virus, adding to the evidence suggesting that this virus should be considered as an important emerging pathogen.


id: cord-335115-g9h8y2on
title: Incubation Period and Reproduction Number for novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections in India
author: Patrikar, S.
date: 2020-06-29
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url: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.27.20141424
doi: 10.1101/2020.06.27.20141424
summary:
  We estimated incubation period and reproduction number of COVID 19 for India utilizing data reported by Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MoHFW), Government of India (GOI) and data in public domain. Weibull distribution, the best fit for the reproduction number estimated pre lockdown reproduction number as 2.6 (95% CI=2.34, 2.86) and post lockdown reduced to 1.57 (95% CI=1.3 , 1.84) implying effectiveness of the epidemic response strategies. Hence this study was undertaken to address above issue and estimate incubation period and reproduction number of COVID-19 for India utilizing data reported by Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MoHFW), Government of India (GOI) and the data available in public domain. This data driven paper to the best of our knowledge presents the estimates of incubation period and reproduction number of COVID-19 in India for the first time. . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.27.20141424 doi: medRxiv preprint Figure 1 : Cumulative distribution function for best fit Normal distribution for Incubation period for India All rights reserved.

abstract:
  Novel coronavirus (COVID 19) rapidly spread from China to other parts of the world. Knowledge of incubation period and reproduction number is important in controlling any epidemic. The distribution of these parameters helps estimate the epidemic size and transmission potential of the disease. We estimated incubation period and reproduction number of COVID 19 for India utilizing data reported by Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MoHFW), Government of India (GOI) and data in public domain. The mean incubation period seems to be larger at 6.93 (SD=5.87, 95% CI: 6.11, 7.75). and 95th percentile estimate for best fit normal distribution is 17.8 days. Weibull distribution, the best fit for the reproduction number estimated pre lockdown reproduction number as 2.6 (95% CI=2.34, 2.86) and post lockdown reduced to 1.57 (95% CI=1.3 , 1.84) implying effectiveness of the epidemic response strategies. The herd immunity is estimated between 36 to 61% for R0 of 1.57 and 2.6 respectively.


id: cord-335168-3ofarutr
title: Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Dermatologists and Dermatology Practice
author: Bhat, Yasmeen Jabeen
date: 2020-05-10
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url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32695687/
doi: 10.4103/idoj.idoj_180_20
summary:
  [11] The International Psoriasis Council recommends dermatologists to discontinue or postpone immunosuppressant medications for psoriasis patients diagnosed with COVID-19 infection, however apremilast can be continued unless severe symptoms are present. Indian association of dermatologists, venereologists and leprologists (IADVL), one of the largest dermatology association in the world, was also prompt to issue position statement for its members with the objectives of providing strategies to combat COVID-19 in dermatology practice in the form of education about the prevention of transmission; avoiding all non-essential outpatient consultations and elective procedures; stressing upon the dermatolgists to be updated with ever changing scenarios and guidelines, canceling travels and gatherings including CMEs, meetings, and conferences and recommendations about the use of immunosuppressives and biologics in patients.

abstract:
  The COVID-19 pandemic has directly or indirectly affected every human being on this planet. It's impact on the healthcare system has been devastating. The medical fraternity across the world, including India, is facing unprecedented challenges in striving to cope up with this catastrophic outbreak. Like all other specialties, dermatology practice has been profoundly affected by this pandemic. Measures have been taken by dermatologists to control the transmission of the virus, whereas providing health care to patients in the constrained environment. Preventive measures such as social distancing and hand hygienic practices along with patient education is being prioritized. Dermatological conferences and events scheduled across the globe in the first half of year 2020 have been either cancelled or postponed to discourage gatherings. Rationalization of resources and practice of teledermatology are being encouraged in current scenario. Non-urgent visits of the patients are being discouraged and elective dermatology procedures are being postponed. Many national and international dermatology societies have recently proposed recommendations and advisories on usage of biologicals and immunomodulators in present context of COVID-19 pandemic. Urticarial, erythematous, varicelliform, purpuric and livedoid rash as well as aggravation of preexisting dermatological diseases like rosacea, eczema, atopic dermatitis, and neurodermatitis rash have been reported in Covid-19 patients. Self medications and poor compliance of dermatology patients in addition to lack of proper treatment protocols and monitoring are a serious concern in the present scenario. Strategies for future course of action, including the dermatology specific guidelines need to be framed. This issue includes a special symposium on dermatology and COVID-19 having recommendations from special interest groups (SIGs) of Indian Association of Dermatologists, Venereologists and Leprologists (IADVL) Academy on leprosy, dermatosurgery, lasers and dermoscopy.


id: cord-335233-m9vc994p
author: Kaushik, Ashlesha
date: 2020-06-10
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url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32641878/
doi: 10.1007/s12291-020-00899-1
abstract: nan
summary:
  Older adults are most severely affected as noted by the authors; however, novel pediatric manifestations resembling Kawasaki disease have been recently recognized, marked by elevated biochemical markers of inflammation including ferritin and D-dimers [4] , labeled recently as Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome by the World Health Organization. Therapy with convalescent plasma has shown promise and a Phase II, Open Label, Randomized Controlled Trial to Assess the Safety and Efficacy of Convalescent Plasma to Limit COVID-19 associated Complications in Moderate Disease (PLACID Trial) has been initiated by Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) in 46 hospitals within India [7] . Thus far, a total of 36, 11,599 patient-samples have been tested for COVID-19 in India [3] . Till now, COVID-19 in India has been addressed predominantly by containment measures (quarantine, isolation of infected individuals, contact-tracing and reducing movement of people in areas with high case-loads). COVID-19 Pandemic in India: What lies ahead

title:
  COVID-19 Pandemic in India: What Lies Ahead-Letter to the Editor: Mitra P, Misra S, Sharma P. COVID-19 Pandemic in India: What Lies Ahead [published online ahead of print, 2020 Apr 20]. Indian J Clin Biochem. 2020;1–3. doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12291-020-00886-6


id: cord-336604-2auhkxce
title: Integrated genomic view of SARS-CoV-2 in India
author: Kumar, Pramod
date: 2020-08-03
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url: https://doi.org/10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16119.1
doi: 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16119.1
summary:
  Methods: We used ARTIC protocol-based tiling amplicon sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 (n=104) from different states of India using a combination of MinION and MinIT sequencing from Oxford Nanopore Technology to understand how introduction and local transmission occurred. Results: The analyses revealed multiple introductions of SARS-CoV-2 genomes, including the A2a cluster from Europe and the USA, A3 cluster from Middle East and A4 cluster (haplotype redefined) from Southeast Asia (Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia) and Central Asia (Kyrgyzstan). A total of 127 laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 from targeted testing and available samples at NCDC which represent different geographic locations or states and travel history from different countries during the early phase of the outbreak (Table 1 and Extended data, Supplementary figure S1 [Kumar et al., 2020b] ). We also compared SARS-CoV-2 mutation sites with other six coronavirus sequences (Extended data, Supplementary figure S5b [Kumar et al., 2020b] ).

abstract:
  Background: India first detected SARS-CoV-2, causal agent of COVID-19 in late January 2020, imported from Wuhan, China. From March 2020 onwards, the importation of cases from countries in the rest of the world followed by seeding of local transmission triggered further outbreaks in India. Methods: We used ARTIC protocol-based tiling amplicon sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 (n=104) from different states of India using a combination of MinION and MinIT sequencing from Oxford Nanopore Technology to understand how introduction and local transmission occurred. Results: The analyses revealed multiple introductions of SARS-CoV-2 genomes, including the A2a cluster from Europe and the USA, A3 cluster from Middle East and A4 cluster (haplotype redefined) from Southeast Asia (Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia) and Central Asia (Kyrgyzstan). The local transmission and persistence of genomes A4, A2a and A3 was also observed in the studied locations. The most prevalent genomes with patterns of variance (confined in a cluster) remain unclassified, and are here proposed as A4-clade based on its divergence within the A cluster. Conclusions: The viral haplotypes may link their persistence to geo-climatic conditions and host response. Multipronged strategies including molecular surveillance based on real-time viral genomic data is of paramount importance for a timely management of the pandemic.


id: cord-338466-7uvta990
author: Singh, Brijesh P.
date: 2020-10-31
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url: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169716120300493
doi: 10.1016/bs.host.2020.10.005
summary:
  For the spread of COVID-19, when disease dynamics are still unclear, mathematical modeling helps us to estimate the cumulative number of positive cases in the present scenarios. There are already various measures such as social distancing, lockdown masking and washing hand regularly has been implemented to prevent the spread of COVID-19, but in absence of particular medicine and vaccine it is very important to predict how the infection is likely to develop among the population that support prevention of the disease and aid in the preparation of healthcare service. The logistic growth regression model is used for the estimation of the final size and its peak time of the COVID-19 pandemic in many countries of the World and found similar result obtained by SIR model (Batista, 2020) .

title:
  Modeling and forecasting the spread of COVID-19 pandemic in India and significance of lockdown: A mathematical outlook

abstract:
  A very special type of pneumonic disease that generated the COVID-19 was first identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019 and is spreading all over the world. The ongoing outbreak presents a challenge for data scientists to model COVID-19, when the epidemiological characteristics of the COVID-19 are yet to be fully explained. The uncertainty around the COVID-19 with no vaccine and effective medicine available till today create additional pressure on the epidemiologists and policy makers. In such a crucial situation, it is very important to predict infected cases to support prevention of the disease and aid in the preparation of healthcare service. India is fighting efficiently against COVID-19 and facing greater challenges because of its large population and high population density. Though the government of India is taking all needful steps to prevent its spread but it is not enough to control and stop spread of the disease so far, perhaps due to defiant nature of people living in India. Effective measure to control this disease, medical professionals needs to know the estimated size of this pandemic and pace. In this study, an attempt has been made to understand the spreading capability of COVID-19 in India through some simple models. Findings suggest that the lockdown strategies implemented in India are not successfully reducing the pace of the pandemic significantly after first lockdown.


id: cord-338664-wvsc94qv
title: Private Health Sector in India: Ready and willing, yet underutilized in the Covid-19 pandemic.
author: Davalbhakta, S.
date: 2020-06-12
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url: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.09.20126086
doi: 10.1101/2020.06.09.20126086
summary:
  Not surprisingly, countries ahead of us on the pandemic curve have recognized the need to utilize all available healthcare resources, forging partnerships between public and private healthcare sectors. 15, 16 The present survey was conducted to explore the opinions and preparedness of healthcare workers (HCWs) in the private sector, on public-private partnerships (PPP) to provide a sustained, uninterrupted healthcare response in the face of the current pandemic. An online survey was conducted in April 2020, and a pre-tested, content validated questionnaire was circulated over WhatsApp® groups of healthcare professionals (doctors, nurses, technicians, students and administrators amounting to nearly 2000 individuals) in the private hospitals across India. In our e-survey assessing the opinions and readiness of HCWs in the private healthcare sector, we found that participants felt that they had not contributed enough and were positively inclined to participate in the pandemic response.

abstract:
  Background: The private medical sector is a resource that must be estimated for efficient inclusion into public healthcare during pandemics. Methods: A survey was conducted among private healthcare workers to ascertain their views on the potential resources that can be accessed from the private sector and methods to do the same. Results: There were 213 respondents, 80% of them being doctors. Nearly half (47.4%) felt that the contribution from the private medical sector has been suboptimal. Areas suggested for improved contributions by the private sector related to patient care (71.8%) and provision of equipment (62.4%), with fewer expectations (39.9%) on the research front. Another area of deemed support was maintaining continuity of care for non-COVID patients using virtual consultation services (77.4%), tele-consultation being the preferred option (60%). 58.2% felt that the Government had not involved the private sector adequately; and 45.1% felt they should be part of policy-making. Conclusion: A streamlined pathway to facilitate the private sector to join hands with the public sector for a national cause is the need of the hour. Through our study, we have identified gaps in the current contribution by the private sector and identified areas in which they could contribute, by their own admission.


id: cord-339637-hb6bsb6q
author: Khader, Mohammed Abdul
date: 2020-08-18
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url: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1871402120303143?v=s5
doi: 10.1016/j.dsx.2020.08.011
summary:
  A highly significant correlation (r = 0.89, p = 0.0145) was found between increasing age and reporting of higher BGLs. Conclusion: This study provides a firsthand evidence of major disruption in diabetes care activities during and after the lockdown phase in India and increased risk of poorer clinical outcomes, if infected by SARS-CoV-2. Inclusion criteria -People who are diagnosed with diabetes -Any gender -Age more than 18 years Exclusion criteria -Not able to provide informed consent for the study The questionnaire consisted of mainly 3 domains: A) socio-demographic details, e.g., subject''s age, gender, state, city, town, educational qualification, financial income; B) medical and social history, e.g., type of diabetes, comorbidities, smoking, and drinking habits; C) impact of COVID-19 outbreak on their medical and social life, e.g., frequency of clinic visits, changes in glycemic levels, digital glucometer at home, access to health care services, changes in the eating habits and physical activity, changes in drinking and smoking habits, online consultations, the reason for cancellation or postponement.

title:
  A cross sectional study reveals severe disruption in glycemic control in people with diabetes during and after lockdown in India

abstract:
  Background and aims: Uncontrolled diabetes has been associated with poorer clinical outcomes in COVID-19. We aimed to evaluate and assess the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on management of diabetes and challenges faced by people with diabetes in India during and after the lockdown phase. Methods: A cross-sectional study based on an online questionnaire survey was designed. The questions collected socio-demographic details, medical and social history, and impact of the pandemic on medical and social life from 1582 participants. Linear regression was employed to evaluate association of different parameters with the change in glycemic levels. Results: The frequency of clinical visits during the COVID-19 pandemic were reduced in 87.28% of participants. 92.45% of participants were able to monitor their blood glucose levels (BGLs) in which 78.42% (49.35%, 20.91%, and 8.16%) participants experienced an increase in BGL (mild, moderate, and severe respectively). Only 47.41% of participants possessed the digital glucometer at home. 69.07% of participants reported a decrease in physical activity while 46.88% reported an increase in food intake. 80.06% of participants were able to buy all medicines and 29.80% were gone for virtual consultations while 87.81% reported that they didn't have access to healthcare services. Overall, 89.47% participants experienced disruption in therapy. A highly significant correlation (r = 0.89, p = 0.0145) was found between increasing age and reporting of higher BGLs. Conclusion: This study provides a firsthand evidence of major disruption in diabetes care activities during and after the lockdown phase in India and increased risk of poorer clinical outcomes, if infected by SARS-CoV-2.


id: cord-339874-not2z6q6
title: Modeling geographical spread of COVID-19 in India using network-based approach
author: Kumar, Ankush
date: 2020-04-27
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url: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.23.20076489
doi: 10.1101/2020.04.23.20076489
summary:
  India is a large country, with a highly variable inter-state mobility, and dynamically varying infection cases in different locations; thus, the existing models, based solely on the aspects of growth rates, or generalized network concepts, may not provide desired predictions. In India, the mobility towards professional sites can surge incoming cases at Maharastra and Karnataka, while migration towards the native places can risk Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. To model COVID-19 spread in India, here we use the states and union territories as components and their reported positive cases as the number of people infected. The passenger''s air-transport analysis and regular transport based on migration map (case(c)), both predict that Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Karnataka could receive a significantly higher number of cases. The present work proposes a network-based model for predicting the spread of COVID-19, incorporating human mobility through knowledge on migration and air-transport.

abstract:
  COVID-19 pandemic is a global concern, due to its high spreading and alarming fatality rate. Mathematical models can play a decisive role in mitigating the spread and predicting the growth of the epidemic. India is a large country, with a highly variable inter-state mobility, and dynamically varying infection cases in different locations; thus, the existing models, based solely on the aspects of growth rates, or generalized network concepts, may not provide desired predictions. The internal mobility of a country must be considered, for accurate prediction. Herein, we propose a framework for predicting the geographical spread of COVID-19, using reported COVID-19 cases, census migration data, and monthly airline data of passengers. We discover that spreading depends on the spatial distribution of existing cases, human mobility patterns, and administrative decisions. In India, the mobility towards professional sites can surge incoming cases at Maharastra and Karnataka, while migration towards the native places can risk Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. We anticipate that the state Kerala, with one of the highest cases of COVID-19, may not receive significant incoming cases, while Karnataka and Haryana may receive the challenge of high incoming cases, with medium cases so far. Using airline passenger's data, we also estimate the number of potential incoming cases at various airports. The study predicts that the airports located in the region of north India are vulnerable, whereas in northeast India and in some south India are relatively safe. The detailed analysis in this direction will guide policymakers for prior planning of transport, and minimize the spread of COVID-19.


id: cord-340937-6mpob1nx
author: Varshney, Mohit
date: 2020-05-29
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url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32470088/
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0233874
summary:
  The survey collected data on socio-demographic and clinical variables related to COVID-19 (based on the current knowledge); along with measuring psychological impact with the help of Impact of Event–revised (IES-R) scale. The survey collected data on socio-demographic and clinical variables related to COVID-19 (based on the current knowledge); along with measuring psychological impact with the help of Impact of Eventrevised (IES-R) scale. The current study investigated the initial psychological impact of COVID-19 outbreak in Indian population. Despite the limitations, this study provides the first cross-sectional data on actual level of psychological impact among Indian community; and how mental health of people is affected during a pandemic of this nature. Our survey is one of the first mental health related data from India, during the initial phase of COVID-19 pandemic and indicated that a significant proportion of them have had a psychological impact during the crisis.

title:
  Initial psychological impact of COVID-19 and its correlates in Indian Community: An online (FEEL-COVID) survey

abstract:
  BACKGROUND: The pandemic of Corona Virus (COVID-19) hit India recently; and the associated uncertainty is increasingly testing psychological resilience of the masses. When the global focus has mostly been on testing, finding a cure and preventing transmission; people are going through a myriad of psychological problems in adjusting to the current lifestyles and fear of the disease. Since there is a severe dearth of researches on this issue, we decided to conduct an online survey to evaluate its psychological impact. METHODS: From 26(th) to 29(th) March an online survey (FEEL-COVID) was conducted using principles of snowballing, and by invitation through text messages to participate. The survey collected data on socio-demographic and clinical variables related to COVID-19 (based on the current knowledge); along with measuring psychological impact with the help of Impact of Event–revised (IES-R) scale. RESULTS: There were a total of 1106 responses from around 64 cities in the country. Out of these 453 responses had at least one item missing; and were excluded from the analysis. The mean age of the respondents was around 41 years with a male female ratio of 3:1 and around 22% respondents were health care professionals. Overall approximately one third of respondents had significant psychological impact (IES-R score > 24). Higher psychological impact was predicted with younger age, female gender and comorbid physical illness. Presence of physical symptoms and contact history predicted higher psychological impact, but did not reach statistical significance. CONCLUSION: During the initial stages of COVID-19 in India, almost one-third respondents had a significant psychological impact. This indicates a need for more systematic and longitudinal assessment of psychological needs of the population, which can help the government in formulating holistic interventions for affected individuals.


id: cord-342405-nsj9dh48
title: India’s cost-effective COVID-19 vaccine development initiatives
author: Chakraborty, Chiranjib
date: 2020-10-20
txt: ./txt/cord-342405-nsj9dh48.txt
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url: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2020.10.056
doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2020.10.056
abstract: nan
summary:
  title: India''s cost-effective COVID-19 vaccine development initiatives In addition, millions of people who live across over 30 world''s poorest countries will also expect the affordable low-cost vaccine. It''s currently collaborating with Codagenix to develop a vaccine, including live-attenuated vaccine against COVID-19. 6 Besides, it has a partnership with Codagenix, a New York based firm specialized on vaccines and the Oxford University to produce the COVID-19 vaccine. 10 What''s unique about India is that it has the expertise for low-cost per-unit vaccine production of vaccines. Due to the low cost vaccine making history, new products against COVID-19 will be of great use in over 30 low-income countries worldwide benefiting millions of people who cannot afford expensive vaccines. Few months ago, the WHO has praised India''s vaccine production capacity in a meeting of COVID-19. It''s time for the developing world to collaborate with India to produce and distribute the cost-effective COVID-19 vaccine as soon as possible.


id: cord-342498-f93jma3d
author: Srivastava, A.
date: 2020-06-05
txt: ./txt/cord-342498-f93jma3d.txt
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extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.04.20122028
doi: 10.1101/2020.06.04.20122028
summary:
  Method: Using publicly available compiled data on COVID-19, we estimated the trends in new cases, period-prevalence rate (PPR), case recovery rate (CRR), and case fatality ratio (CFR) at national, state and district level. Maharashtra (11 to 4,445 persons per day; total infected persons 107 to 53,343); Tamil Nadu (2 to 1,332 persons per day; total infected persons 18 to 15,995); Delhi (3 to 1086 persons per day; total infected persons 30 to 13,036); Gujarat (3 to 899 persons per day; total infected persons 34 to 10,786); Rajasthan (3 to 431 per day; total infected persons 32 to 5,179) and Madhya Pradesh (1 to 416 per day; total infected persons 7 to 4,993), though Kerala experienced the least increment in average prevalence of COVID-19 (11 to 54 per day; 109 to 650 total persons) at the end of the fourth lockdown(see Fig 4) .

title:
  Geographical Variation in COVID-19 Cases, Prevalence, Recovery and Fatality Rate by Phase of National Lockdown in India, March 14-May 29, 2020

abstract:
  Background: Since the COVID-19 pandemic hit Indian states at varying speed, it is crucial to investigate the geographical pattern in COVID-19. We analyzed the geographical pattern of COVID-19 prevalence and mortality by the phase of national lockdown in India. Method: Using publicly available compiled data on COVID-19, we estimated the trends in new cases, period-prevalence rate (PPR), case recovery rate (CRR), and case fatality ratio (CFR) at national, state and district level. Findings: The age and sex are missing for more than 60 percent of the COVID-19 patients. There is an exponential increase in COVID-19 cases both at national and sub-national levels. The COVID-19 infected has jumped about 235 times ( from 567 cases in the pre-lockdown period to 1,33,669 in the fourth lockdown); the average daily new cases have increased from 57 in the first lockdown to 6,482 in the fourth lockdown; the average daily recovered persons from 4 to 3,819; the average daily death from 1 to 163. From first to the third lockdown, PPR (0.04 to 5.94), CRR (7.05 to 30.35) and CFR (1.76 to 1.89) have consistently escalated. At state-level, the maximum number of COVID-19 cases is found in the states of Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Delhi, and Gujarat contributing 66.75 percent of total cases. Whereas no cases found in some states, Kerela is the only state flattening the COVID-19 curve. The PPR is found to be highest in Delhi, followed by Maharastra. The highest recovery rate is observed in Kerala, till second lockdown; and in Andhra Pradesh in third lockdown. The highest case fatality ratio in the fourth lockdown is observed in Gujarat and Telangana. A few districts viz. like Mumbai (96.7); Chennai (63.66) and Ahmedabad (62.04) have the highest infection rate per 100 thousand population. Spatial analysis shows that clusters in Konkan coast especially in Maharashtra (Palghar, Mumbai, Thane and Pune); southern part from Tamil Nadu (Chennai, Chengalpattu and Thiruvallur), and the northern part of Jammu & Kashmir (Anantnag, Kulgam) are hot-spots for COVID-19 infection while central, northern and north-eastern regions of India are the cold-spots. Conclusion: India has been experiencing a rapid increase of COVID-19 cases since the second lockdown phase. There is huge geographical variation in COVID-19 pandemic with a concentration in some major cities and states while disaggregated data at local levels allows understanding the geographical disparity of the pandemic, the lack of age-sex information of the COVID-19 patients forbids to investigate the individual pattern of COVID-19 burden. Keyword: COVID-19; India; Case Fatality Rate; Case Recovery Rate; Period Prevalence Rate; Geographical variation


id: cord-343100-cljfh8es
author: Chakraborty, Parthasarathi
date: 2020-07-15
txt: ./txt/cord-343100-cljfh8es.txt
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url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32671411/
doi: 10.1007/s00128-020-02937-3
summary:
  This study has shown strong positive correlation between the concentration of atmospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)) and both the absolute number of COVID-19 deaths (r = 0.79, p < 0.05) and case fatality rate (r = 0.74, p < 0.05) in India. The data (used in this study) related to atmospheric pollutants and the COVID-19 pandemic were obtained from online resources (Central control room for air quality management-all India and https ://www.covid 19ind ia.org/ respectively). The concentration of surface atmospheric pollutants from 207 stations of 128 cities distributed all over India (as shown in Fig. 1) were obtained from the website of Central Control Room for Air Quality Management (https ://app.cpcbc cr.com/ccr). However, increasing concentration of atmospheric NO 2 , showed a strong positive correlation with the number of COVID-19 deaths and the COVID-19 CFR in different states of India ( Fig. 2a and b) .

title:
  Exposure to Nitrogen Dioxide (NO(2)) from Vehicular Emission Could Increase the COVID-19 Pandemic Fatality in India: A Perspective

abstract:
  The corona virus-2019 (COVID-19) is ravaging the whole world. Scientists have been trying to acquire more knowledge on different aspects of COVID-19. This study attempts to determine the effects of COVID-19, on a large population, which has already been persistently exposed to various atmospheric pollutants in different parts of India. Atmospheric pollutants and COVID-19 data, obtained from online resources, were used in this study. This study has shown strong positive correlation between the concentration of atmospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)) and both the absolute number of COVID-19 deaths (r = 0.79, p < 0.05) and case fatality rate (r = 0.74, p < 0.05) in India. Statistical analysis of the amount of annual fossil fuels consumption in transportation, and the annual average concentration of the atmospheric PM(2.5), PM(10), NO(2), in the different states of India, suggest that one of the main sources of atmospheric NO(2) is from fossil fuels combustion in transportation. It is suggested that homeless, poverty-stricken Indians, hawkers, roadside vendors, and many others who are regularly exposed to vehicular exhaust, may be at a higher risk in the COVID-19 pandemic. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s00128-020-02937-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.


id: cord-343857-qyxko730
title: Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 among workers returning to Bihar gives snapshot of COVID across India
author: Malani, A.
date: 2020-06-28
txt: ./txt/cord-343857-qyxko730.txt
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mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.26.20138545
doi: 10.1101/2020.06.26.20138545
summary:
  RNA testing on a near-random sample of laborers returning to the state of Bihar is used to estimate positive testing rate for COVID across India for a 6-week period immediately following the initial lifting of India''s lockdown. Here, we rely on a unique dataset of RNA tests conducted on 43,356 workers from around the country who returned to their home state of Bihar between May 4 -June 10, 2020, to provide a snapshot of COVID burden across India. We study the rate at which workers returning to Bihar tested positive for COVID during a 38 day period from May 4-June 10, 2020. However, the positive rate among workers returning to Bihar was on average 1 percentage point (pp) (21%) higher than the prevalence reported by the origin state''s testing data across the 3 periods. While prevalence among workers returning to Bihar was moderately correlated with the positive test rate reported by origin states, there are important differences.

abstract:
  India has reported the fourth highest number of confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases worldwide. Because there is little community testing for COVID, this case count is likely an underestimate. When India partially exited from lockdown on May 4, 2020, millions of daily laborers left cities for their rural family homes. RNA testing on a near-random sample of laborers returning to the state of Bihar is used to estimate positive testing rate for COVID across India for a 6-week period immediately following the initial lifting of India's lockdown. Positive testing rates among returning laborers are only moderately correlated with, and 21% higher than, Indian states' official reports, which are not based on random sampling. Higher prevalence among returning laborers may also reflect greater COVID spread in crowded poor communities such as slums.


id: cord-343882-5v1tpi9n
author: Gupta, M.
date: 2020-05-18
txt: ./txt/cord-343882-5v1tpi9n.txt
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mime: text/plain
url: http://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.05.13.20096826v1?rss=1
doi: 10.1101/2020.05.13.20096826
summary:
  title: Transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in India, and evaluating the impact of asymptomatic carriers and role of expanded testing in the lockdown exit strategy: a modelling approach Methods: We estimated the basic reproduction number and effective reproduction number at a national and state level in India after adjusting for imported cases and reporting lag using established statistical methods, using time-series data from 4 March to 25 April 2020. Through a modelling approach which accounts for asymptomatic transmission, we evaluated various lockdown exit strategies, including the effect of onset and duration of lockdown relaxation on the second wave, and the impact of increased testing on epidemic size and resumption of socioeconomic activities. Sensitivity of effect of testing rate and social distancing policies on total symptomatic cases to probability of asymptomaticity at 45 days after lockdown relaxation. Sensitivity of effect of testing rate and social distancing policies on total symptomatic cases to probability of asymptomaticity at 45 days after lockdown relaxation.

title:
  Transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in India, and evaluating the impact of asymptomatic carriers and role of expanded testing in the lockdown exit strategy: a modelling approach

abstract:
  Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused over 3 200 000 cases and 230 000 deaths as on 2 May 2020, and has quickly become an unprecedented global health threat. India, with its unique challenges in fighting this pandemic, imposed one of the worlds strictest and largest population-wide lockdown on 25 March 2020. Here, we estimated key epidemiological parameters and evaluated the effect of control measures on the COVID-19 epidemic in India and its states. Through a modeling approach that accounted for asymptomatics, we assessed the impact of lockdown relaxation and increased testing. Methods: We estimated the basic reproduction number and effective reproduction number at a national and state level in India after adjusting for imported cases and reporting lag using established statistical methods, using time-series data from 4 March to 25 April 2020. Using a dynamic SEIR-QDPA model fitted to data from India, we forecasted the size and temporality of the ongoing first wave while accounting for the interventions in place. We used the model to simulate lockdown relaxation under various scenarios to evaluate its effect on the size and temporality of the second wave. We also evaluated the feasibility of increased testing as a containment strategy after restrictions are relaxed and its impact on the epidemic size and resumption of socio-economic activities, while taking into account the changes in transmission dynamics brought about by asymptomatic carriers. Findings: The median delay from symptom onset to detection (reporting lag) was estimated to be 2{middle dot}68 days (95% CI 2{middle dot}00-3{middle dot}00) with an IQR of 2{middle dot}03 days (95% CI 1{middle dot}00-3{middle dot}00). The R0 for India was estimated to be 2{middle dot}083 (95% CI 2{middle dot}044-2{middle dot}122 ; R2 = 0{middle dot}972), while the Rt gradually down trended from 1{middle dot}665 (95%CI 1{middle dot}539-1{middle dot}789) on 30 March to 1{middle dot}159 (95% CI 1{middle dot}128-1{middle dot}189) on 21 April. 60{middle dot}7% of confirmed COVID-19 cases in our sample were found to be asymptomatic. We observed that delaying the lockdown relaxation increases the time to new rise in active cases after the relaxation in a linear fashion. If lockdown was reintroduced after a fixed relaxation period, the magnitude of the second peak could be reduced by delaying the relaxation and decreasing the duration of relaxation. These benefits were greater in case of a gradual relaxation as compared to a sudden lifting of lockdown. We found that detecting a higher proportion of cases through testing significantly decreases the total infections. This positive impact of testing progressively increased at higher transmission rates when restrictions were relaxed. We found that similar containment targets could be achieved by both, a combination of high testing and less social restrictions, and a combination of lower testing with intensive social distancing. Interpretation: The nationwide social distancing interventions in India since 25 March have reduced the effective transmission levels, though sub-threshold Rt remains to be achieved. If lockdown is to be extended, additional benefits for mitigating the second wave can be achieved if it is extended farther after the peak of active cases has passed. Intensive social distancing is inherently enough to contain the epidemic, however, testing will play a pivotal role in the lockdown exit strategy by impeding the epidemic growth enough to allow for a greater resumption of socio-economic activities, thus minimizing the social and economic fallout resulting from severe restrictions. Considering that asymptomatics play an undeniable role in the transmission of COVID-19, dependence on presence of symptoms for control strategies, behavioural changes and testing should be reduced.


id: cord-343929-9ebw3x8r
author: Gupta, Ritesh
date: 2020-09-08
txt: ./txt/cord-343929-9ebw3x8r.txt
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mime: text/plain
url: https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/pii/S1871402120303556
doi: 10.1016/j.dsx.2020.09.009
summary:
  title: Clinical considerations in patients with diabetes during times of COVID19: An update on lifestyle factors and antihyperglycemic drugs with focus on India RESULTS: Diabetes and poor glycemic control are associated with increased severity and mortality in patients with COVID-19. Diabetes and poor glycemic control are associated with increased severity and mortality in patients with COVID19 . A recent article by a consortium of diabetes experts in J o u r n a l P r e -p r o o f India has identified five categories of patients with hyperglycemia who need consideration in today''s times of COVID-19 pandemic 34 . Observational study on Effect of Lock Down due to COVID 19 on glycemic control in patients with Diabetes: Experience from Central India Impact of lockdown in COVID 19 on glycemic control in patients with type 1 Diabetes Mellitus Impact of COVID-19 lockdown on glycemic control in patients with type 1 diabetes

title:
  Clinical considerations in patients with diabetes during times of COVID19: An update on lifestyle factors and antihyperglycemic drugs with focus on India

abstract:
  BACKGROUND: Diabetes is recognized as an important comorbidity in patients with COVID-19 and a large amount of literature has become available regarding this. The aim of this article is to review the literature regarding various aspects of association between diabetes and COVID-19 and to highlight clinically relevant points with focus on India. METHODS: We searched Pubmed and Google Scholar databases for articles regarding diabetes and COVID-19 published between March 19, 2020 and August 30, 2020. RESULTS: Diabetes and poor glycemic control are associated with increased severity and mortality in patients with COVID-19. Several clinical scenarios about hyperglycemia and COVID-19 are identified and each of these needs specific management strategies. CONCLUSION: It is prudent to maintain good glycemic control in patients with diabetes in order to minimize the complications of COVID-19. There is a need for well conducted studies to asses the role of individual antihyperglycemic therapies in COVID-19 and also the behavior of new onset diabetes diagnosed either after COVID-19 infection or during this time.


id: cord-344948-cve3mqd8
title: COVID-19 impacts on agriculture and food systems in Nepal: Implications for SDGs
author: Adhikari, Jagannath
date: 2020-11-07
txt: ./txt/cord-344948-cve3mqd8.txt
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url: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308521X20308519?v=s5
doi: 10.1016/j.agsy.2020.102990
summary:
  Key Informants -Government policy makers (2) 1) Mid-April 2020 (10) 2) Mid-Oct 2020 (10) Government policies to deal with such crisis; what supports are provided, how and to whom; policy gaps in agricultural sector in general and food security in particular as exposed by the crisis; experience/idea with regard to resiliency of prevailing farming systems to cope with such crisis; role of indigenous food systems in such crisis; what new initiatives taken at different government levels to deal with the crisis and continue with food production, marketing, distribution through trade/transportation, supply of inputs, new incentive structures; effectiveness of these new initiatives and which seem to work effectively; what could be the policies options for the future to deal with the crisis.

abstract:
  The objective of this study was to understand the impacts of COVID-19 crisis in agriculture and food systems in Nepal and assess the effectiveness of measures to deal with this crisis. The study draws policy implications, especially for farming systems resilience and the achievement of SDGs 1 and 2. The findings are based on (i) three panel discussions over six months with policy makers and experts working at grassroots to understand and manage the crisis, (ii) key informants' interviews, and (iii) an extensive literature review. Results revealed that the lockdown and transport restrictions have had severe consequences, raising questions on the achievement of SDGs 1 and 2, especially in the already vulnerable regions dependent on food-aid. This crisis has also exposed the strengths and limitations of both subsistence and commercial farming systems in terms of resiliency, offering important lessons for policy makers. Traditional subsistence farming appears to be somewhat resilient, with a potential to contribute to key pillars of food security, especially access and stability, though with limited contributions to food availability because of low productivity. On the other hand, commercial farming - limited to the periphery of market centres, cities, and emerging towns and in the accessible areas - was more impacted due to the lack of resilient supply networks to reach even the local market. Lower resiliency of commercial farming was also evident because of its growing dependence on inputs (mainly seeds and fertilizer) on distant markets located in foreign countries. The observation of crisis over eight months unleashed by the pandemic clearly revealed that wage labourers, indigenous people, and women from marginalized groups and regions already vulnerable in food security and malnutrition suffered more due to COVID-19 as they lost both external support and the coping mechanisms. The findings have implications for policies to improve both subsistence and commercial farming systems – in particular the former by improving the productivity through quality inputs and by diversifying, promoting and protecting the indigenous food system, while the latter through sustainable intensification by building reliant supply network linking farming with markets and guarantying the supply of inputs.


id: cord-346026-l9cyzocv
title: An assessment of socioeconomic impact of COVID‐19 pandemic in India
author: Aneja, Ranjan
date: 2020-10-15
txt: ./txt/cord-346026-l9cyzocv.txt
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mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33173441/
doi: 10.1002/pa.2266
summary:
  In Pre-COVID era India was encountering with major macroeconomic issues such as nearly recession with the sluggish GDP growth rate of 4.7% in 2019 which is lowest since 2013 (as indicated by the official statistics), high unemployment rate, decline in industrial output of core sectors-the worst in 14 years, stagnancy in private sector investment, decline in consumption expenditure for the first time in several decades (Dev & Sengupta, 2020) . Considering the disproportionate burden of the crisis on low skilled workers, poors, other vulnerable sections, many economists think that COVID-19 is most likely expected to raise inequality within and among countries (Initiative on Global Markets, 2020) and the results of study conducted by (Furceri, Loungani, Ostry, & Pizzuto, 2020) confirms that those having basic education (low skilled) are affected more than those with higher and advanced degrees, in terms of loss of income hence confirming increase in income inequality after during and after pandemics. 19 4 | CONCLUSION COVID-19 pandemic has incurred unprecedented loss globally but India being an emerging economy is likely to get more affected in every sector and that too disproportionately.

abstract:
  Coronavirus (COVID‐19) pandemic has created an unprecedented loss and disruptions over all across the world. From developed to developing, no country has been spared from its brunt. In this paper, we have analyzed the implications of COVID‐19 on the economy and society of India so far. An impact assessment on the basis of available lietrature is made on all the three sectors—primary, secondary and service sector along with the impact on migrants, health, poverty, job losses, informal sector, environment, and so forth. The all sectors of the economy has been disproportionately affected and even within a sector, there is a disproportionate loss. The societal impacts are dire too with job losses, mental illness, increased domestic violence, and so forth. Some positive effects can be seen in terms of improved air quality, water quality, wildlife but the sustainability of such impact is conditional upon post‐COVID and people's habits and future policies related to the environment.


id: cord-346113-4obj0rs3
title: Growing Precarity, Circular Migration, and the Lockdown in India
author: Srivastava, Ravi
date: 2020-09-10
txt: ./txt/cord-346113-4obj0rs3.txt
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mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32929315/
doi: 10.1007/s41027-020-00260-3
summary:
  The Government of India announced a package of measures to support poor households and workers on March 25, immediately after the imposition of the lockdown. But after the announcement of the second lockdown on April 15, the exodus turned into a tide, with workers and their family members attempting to walk back across thousands of kilometres, even in the face of harassment and worse by government forces. Initially, the central government announced (on April 19) permission to deploy migrant workers within destination states where they were stranded. Since May 2020, the Government of India has announced some follow-up measures to support the affected poor and the migrant workers. We must note that Kerala emerged as an outlier among states by announcing a comprehensive package of Rs. 20,000 crore for protection of livelihoods of workers, including migrant workers, even before the lockdown. As the migrant crisis escalated, sending states announced measures to support stranded migrant workers.

abstract:
  The paper examines the nature of the migrant crisis in India after the country-wide lockdown in March 2020 and brings out the types of labour migrants who were severely adversely affected by the lockdown, leading to their exodus towards their native villages. It further assesses the government’s response and proposes some key policy imperatives.


id: cord-346187-pd65r6cp
author: Singh, Omvir
date: 2020-10-07
txt: ./txt/cord-346187-pd65r6cp.txt
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extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-020-01003-6
doi: 10.1007/s10668-020-01003-6
summary:
  Eight climatic variables such as maximum, minimum and mean temperature (°C), relative humidity (%), bright sunshine hours, wind speed (km/h), evaporation (mm), and rainfall (mm) have been analyzed in relation to COVID-19. The results of this study suggest that climatic conditions in NCT of Delhi are favorable for COVID-19 and the disease may spread further with the increasing temperature, relative humidity, evaporation and wind speed. Therefore, to fill this research gap, this study has been attempted to provide scientific evidences regarding the spread of COVID-19-infected cases in relation to various climatic variables over NCT of Delhi, a megacity in India. Recently, correlation analysis has been extensively used to associate COVID-19 pandemic confirmed cases with climatic variables (Bashir et al. The daily data of COVID-19 and eight climatic variables such as maximum, minimum and mean temperature, relative humidity, bright sunshine hours, wind speed, evaporation, and rainfall have been analyzed for the period March 14 to June 11, 2020 (90 days).

title:
  Association between climatic variables and COVID-19 pandemic in National Capital Territory of Delhi, India

abstract:
  Globally, since the end of December 2019, coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has been recognized as a severe infectious disease. Therefore, this study has been attempted to examine the linkage between climatic variables and COVID-19 particularly in National Capital Territory of Delhi (NCT of Delhi), India. For this, daily data of COVID-19 has been used for the period March 14 to June 11, 2020, (90 days). Eight climatic variables such as maximum, minimum and mean temperature (°C), relative humidity (%), bright sunshine hours, wind speed (km/h), evaporation (mm), and rainfall (mm) have been analyzed in relation to COVID-19. To study the relationship among different climatic variables and COVID-19 spread, Karl Pearson’s correlation analysis has been performed. The Mann–Kendall method and Sen’s slope estimator have been used to detect the direction and magnitude of COVID-19 trends, respectively. The results have shown that out of eight selected climatic variables, six variables, viz. maximum temperature, minimum temperature, mean temperature, relative humidity, evaporation, and wind speed are positively associated with coronavirus disease cases (statistically significant at 95 and 99% confidence levels). No association of coronavirus disease has been found with bright sunshine hours and rainfall. Besides, COVID-19 cases and deaths have shown increasing trends, significant at 99% confidence level. The results of this study suggest that climatic conditions in NCT of Delhi are favorable for COVID-19 and the disease may spread further with the increasing temperature, relative humidity, evaporation and wind speed. This is the only study which has presented the analysis of COVID-19 spread in relation to several climatic variables for the most densely populated and rapidly growing city of India. Thus, considering the results obtained, effective policies and actions are necessary especially by identifying the areas where the spread rate is increasing rapidly in this megacity. The prevention and protection measures should be adopted aiming at to reduce the further transmission of disease in the city.


id: cord-347504-pkkh9uy4
title: Impact of COVID-19 on academic activities and way forward in Indian Optometry
author: Rajhans, Vidyut
date: 2020-06-13
txt: ./txt/cord-347504-pkkh9uy4.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-347504-pkkh9uy4.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32703749/
doi: 10.1016/j.optom.2020.06.002
summary:
  In the last week of April 2020, on the observation that the majority of optometry institutions have switched their teaching-learning activities on e-learning mode, an online survey was conducted using a validated questionnaire containing a mix of open and close-ended questions. The quick transitions to online mode assisted in keeping continuity of optometry education programs, effectively fitting in the purpose of completion of the current academic year. Social distancing and telemedicine are set to be ''a new normal'' hereafter, imposing a persistent challenge for global optometry educators, to teach various clinical skills to the students 14 . This paper reports the findings of the observational study describing the rapid transition of optometry education in India amid COVID 19 disruptions. Study design: A cross-sectional survey was designed to find changes in optometry training and adaptations of Indian optometry educators amid COVID 19 lockdown.

abstract:
  Abstract Purpose Academia is experiencing massive reforms globally amid lockdown in COVID-19 outbreak. This study is aimed to apprehend the enabling and impeding factors of these reforms, with a focus on optometry education. It brings together how the Indian optometry educational system has responded to COVID-19 disruptions with findings of the 2020 survey, in light of similar survey done in 2018. Methodology A cross-sectional survey was designed to find changes in optometry training and adaptations of Indian optometry educators amid COVID 19 lockdown. In the last week of April 2020, on the observation that the majority of optometry institutions have switched their teaching-learning activities on e-learning mode, an online survey was conducted using a validated questionnaire containing a mix of open and close-ended questions. Results Seventy-three out of 78 optometry educators (93.58%) have switched to e-learning mode in a very short time span with good confidence. Most teaching-learning and assessment activities are carried out using multi-device supporting video conferencing tools, dedicated educational portals and social media apps. Conclusion The COVID-19 pandemic is proving to be constructive disruptor, giving an opportunity for restructuring the present conventional, classroom based educational system. The quick transitions to online mode assisted in keeping continuity of optometry education programs, effectively fitting in the purpose of completion of the current academic year. The rapid transition to online education has not only benefited optometry students but also has created a momentum of continued education for practicing optometrist in the country.


id: cord-347746-epmcognh
title: Correlation between weather and COVID‐19 pandemic in India: An empirical investigation
author: Sharma, Prayas
date: 2020-07-21
txt: ./txt/cord-347746-epmcognh.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-347746-epmcognh.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1002/pa.2222
doi: 10.1002/pa.2222
summary:
  The minimum, maximum temperature (°C) at 2 m, temperatures (°C) at 2 m and humidity at 2 m are significantly correlated with COVID‐19 pandemic cases (r = 0.93, 0.94, 0.83, and 0.30) at 99% two‐tailed significance level. The computerized datasets of daily confirmed cases, recovered cases, and death of COVID-19 pandemic in India were obtained from WHO through Wikipedia and statista.com for the period of January 29, 2020 to April 30, 2020. The Spearman''s rank correlation coefficient calculated between confirmed case of COVID-19 and components of weather and summarized in Table 2 . This result is in line with the earlier research done in the case of SARS (Tan et al., 2005) , syncytial virus respiration (RSV) (Vandini et al., 2013) , and (Shi et al., 2020; who said, temperature is also the environment driver of COVID-19 outbreak in China). Correlation between weather and COVID-19 pandemic in India: An empirical investigation

abstract:
  This study is an attempt to find and analyze the correlation between Covid‐19 pandemic and weather conditions in Indian context. Secondary data analysis of surveillance data of COVID‐19 is taken from Wikipedia (updating information from World Health Organization) & statista.com and weather data through Power Data Access Viewer (DAV) (power.Iarc.nasa.gov) from NASA after mentioning latitude and longitude of India. The minimum temperature (°C) at 2 metre, maximum temperature (°C) at 2 metre, temperature (°C) at 2 metre and relative humidity (%) are taken as component of weather. To find the association, Spearman's rank correlation test was applied. The minimum, maximum temperature (°C) at 2 m, temperatures (°C) at 2 m and humidity at 2 m are significantly correlated with COVID‐19 pandemic cases (r = 0.93, 0.94, 0.83, and 0.30) at 99% two‐tailed significance level. The findings serve as an initial evidence to reduce the incidence rate of COVID‐19 in India and useful in policy making.


id: cord-350429-v36lrg3p
title: Learning opportunities from COVID-19 and future effects on health care system
author: Iyengar, Karthikeyan
date: 2020-06-20
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url: https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/pii/S1871402120302058
doi: 10.1016/j.dsx.2020.06.036
summary:
  BACKGROUND AND AIMS: COVID-19 has had a crippling effect on the health care systems around the world with cancellation of elective medical services and disruption of daily life. RESULTS: There has been a shared drive worldwide to devise strategies to protect people against viral transmission with reinforcement of hand hygiene and infection control principles but also to provide continuity of health care. COVID-19 has had a crippling effect on the health care systems around the world with cancellation of elective medical services and disruption of daily life. There has been a shared drive worldwide to devise strategies to protect people against viral transmission with reinforcement of hand hygiene and infection control principles but also to provide continuity of health care. Government initiatives -COVID 19 has exposed health care system of many countries including India. Telemedicine for Diabetes Care in India during COVID19 Pandemic and National Lockdown Period: Guidelines for Physicians

abstract:
  BACKGROUND AND AIMS: COVID-19 has had a crippling effect on the health care systems around the world with cancellation of elective medical services and disruption of daily life. We would like to highlight the learning opportunities offered by the current pandemic and their implication for a better future health care system. METHODS: We have undertaken a comprehensive review of the current literature to analyse the consequences of COVID-19 on health care system. Using suitable keywords like ‘COVID-19’, ‘telemedicine’, ‘health care’ and ‘remote consultations’ on the search engines of PubMed, SCOPUS, Google Scholar and Research Gate in the first week of May we gathered information on various aspects of effect of COVID-19. RESULTS: There has been a shared drive worldwide to devise strategies to protect people against viral transmission with reinforcement of hand hygiene and infection control principles but also to provide continuity of health care. Virtual and remote technologies have been increasingly used in health care management. CONCLUSION: COVID-19 has offered unique learning opportunities for the health care sector. Rationalizing and optimizing available resources with resilience shown on the coronavirus frontline during the crisis are some of most important lessons learnt during the crisis. Importance of personal hygiene and re-enforcement of infection control measures have been acknowledged. Telemedicine revolution will be a vital factor in delivering health care in the future.


id: cord-351179-of5qgl90
title: Impact of lockdown on air quality in India during COVID-19 pandemic
author: Singh, Ramesh P.
date: 2020-07-07
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url: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11869-020-00863-1
doi: 10.1007/s11869-020-00863-1
summary:
  A pronounced decline in PM(2.5) and AQI (Air Quality Index) is observed over Delhi, Mumbai, Hyderabad, Kolkata, and Chennai and also a declining trend was observed in tropospheric NO(2) concentration during the lockdown period in 2020 compared with the same period in the year 2019. In general, the Northern parts of India are subjected to poor air quality and atmospheric pollution, mainly due to emissions from vehicles, industry, brick kilns, coal-based power plants, and crop residue burning (Singh et al. Also, farmers at many places have started burning crop residue, and long-term transport of dusts during the pre-monsoon season are also being observed, which affects the air quality of Delhi and major cities located in the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP). We have carried out the trajectory analysis over Delhi, Mumbai, Hyderabad, Chennai, and Kolkata using the NOAA HYSPLIT model (https://ready.arl.noaa.gov/ HYSPLIT.php) to study the sources of air mass reaching at five locations.

abstract:
  First time in India, total lockdown was announced on 22 March 2020 to stop the spread of COVID-19 and the lockdown was extended for 21 days on 24 March 2020 in the first phase. During the total lockdown, most of the sources for poor air quality were stopped in India. In this paper, we present an analysis of air quality (particulate matter-PM(2.5), Air Quality Index, and tropospheric NO(2)) over India using ground and satellite observations. A pronounced decline in PM(2.5) and AQI (Air Quality Index) is observed over Delhi, Mumbai, Hyderabad, Kolkata, and Chennai and also a declining trend was observed in tropospheric NO(2) concentration during the lockdown period in 2020 compared with the same period in the year 2019. During the total lockdown period, the air quality has improved significantly which provides an important information to the cities’ administration to develop rules and regulations on how they can improve air quality.


id: cord-351323-cbejbm5v
author: Roy Mukherjee, Tapasi
date: 2013-06-13
txt: ./txt/cord-351323-cbejbm5v.txt
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url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23765782/
doi: 10.1002/jmv.23607
summary:
  The samples were tested further for influenza C virus, parainfluenza viruses 1–4, human rhinovirus, metapneumovirus and respiratory syncytial virus by conventional RT‐ PCR. Hence the information on epidemiology and clinical features of respiratory virus infection in India is based entirely on research studies and the disease burden or seasonal prevalence of respiratory viruses remains largely undefined. This study initiated to complete the information on circulating respiratory viruses among patients attending the outpatients departments of different hospitals with acute respiratory infections in the eastern region of India during 2010 through 2011. Comparative evaluation of real-time PCR and conventional RT-PCR during 2 year surveillance for influenza and respiratory syncytial virus among children with acute respiratory infections in Kolkata, India, reveals a distinct seasonality of infection Prevalence of respiratory syncytial virus group B genotype BA-IV strains among children with acute respiratory tract infection in Kolkata, Eastern India

title:
  Spectrum of respiratory viruses circulating in eastern India: Prospective surveillance among patients with influenza‐like illness during 2010–2011

abstract:
  In developing countries, viruses causing respiratory disease are a major concern of public health. During January 2010–December 2011, 2,737 patients with acute respiratory infection from the outpatient departments as well as patients admitted to hospitals were screened for different respiratory viruses. Nasal and or throat swabs were collected and transported to the laboratory where initial screening of influenza A and influenza B viruses was performed. The samples were tested further for influenza C virus, parainfluenza viruses 1–4, human rhinovirus, metapneumovirus and respiratory syncytial virus by conventional RT‐ PCR. The study revealed that the majority of the patients were under 5 years of age; both due to their higher susceptibility to respiratory infections and presentation to hospitals. Out of 2,737 patients enrolled in this study, 59% were found positive for one or more respiratory viruses. Influenza B infection was detected in 12% of patients followed by influenza A (11.7%), respiratory syncytial virus (7.1%), parainfluenza virus‐2 (6%), metapneumovirus (3%), parainfluenza virus‐3 (1%), parainfluenza virus‐4 (0.6%), parainfluenza virus‐1 (0.3%), influenza C (0.2%) and human rhinovirus (0.2%). Distinct seasonal infection was observed only for influenza A and influenza B viruses. J. Med. Virol. 85:1459–1465, 2013. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.


id: cord-351448-jowb5kfc
author: Ganesh, Ragul
date: 2020-08-29
txt: ./txt/cord-351448-jowb5kfc.txt
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url: https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/pii/S1876201820304937
doi: 10.1016/j.ajp.2020.102380
summary:
  title: The quality of online media reporting of celebrity suicide in India and its association with subsequent online suicide-related search behaviour among general population: An infodemiology study The present study aimed to assess the quality of online media reporting of a recent celebrity suicide in India and its impact on the online suicide related search behaviour of the population. Thus, in the present study we monitored the changes in internet search volumes for keywords representing suicide-seeking and help-seeking behaviours using the Google Trends platform as a proxy marker to assess the impact of recent celebrity suicide in India. Thus, the present study aimed to assess the quality of online media reporting of a celebrity suicide in India, and evaluate its adherence with the WHO guidelines for responsible media reporting of suicide. Further, the use of a novel Google Trends analysis to show an increased online search interest for suicide-seeking keywords immediately after the reference celebrity suicide provided support for the existence of Werther effect in the Indian context.

title:
  The quality of online media reporting of celebrity suicide in India and its association with subsequent online suicide-related search behaviour among general population: An infodemiology study

abstract:
  The literature reports increased suicide rates among general population in the weeks following the celebrity suicide, known as the Werther effect. The World Health Organization (WHO) has developed guidelines for responsible media reporting of suicide. The present study aimed to assess the quality of online media reporting of a recent celebrity suicide in India and its impact on the online suicide related search behaviour of the population. A total of 200 online media reports about Sushant Singh Rajput’s suicide published between 14(th) to 20(th) June, 2020 were assessed for quality of reporting following the checklist prepared using the WHO guidelines. Further, we examined the change in online suicide-seeking and help-seeking search behaviour of the population following celebrity suicide for the month of June using selected keywords. In terms of potentially harmful media reportage, 85.5% of online reports violated at least one WHO media reporting guideline. In terms of potentially helpful media reportage, only 13% articles provided information about where to seek help for suicidal thoughts or ideation. There was a significant increase in online suicide-seeking (U = 0.5, p < 0.05) and help-seeking (U = 6.5, p < 0.05) behaviour after the reference event, when compared to baseline. However, the online peak search interest for suicide-seeking was greater than help-seeking. This provides support for a strong Werther effect, possibly associated with poor quality of media reporting of celebrity suicide. There is an urgent need for taking steps to improve the quality of media reporting of suicide in India.


id: cord-351665-6gwb900b
title: Coupled human-environment system amid COVID-19 crisis: A conceptual model to understand the nexus
author: Sarkar, Priyanka
date: 2020-08-18
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url: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969720352864?v=s5
doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141757
summary:
  The specific objectives of the study were to (i) perform a meta-analysis of existing literature reporting various impacts of COVID-19 on human society and the natural environment, and (ii) develop a conceptual model to illustrate and understand the complex nexus of CHES amid the pandemic. In addition to the impact of COVID-19 in terms of infection and death as discussed in section 4.1, extended lockdown and stay-at-home regulations against the pandemic has associated human health risks such as weight gains due to sedentary lifestyle, psychological/behavioral changes, etc. The main purpose of the study was to propose a conceptual model to portray and address how the interaction of the existing elements of both sub-components of CHES -human society and natural environment -are impacted by the various governmental interventions i.e., lockdown, social distancing, quarantine, etc.

abstract:
  Abstract The world today is dealing with a havoc crisis due to the pervasive outbreak of COVID-19. As a preventive measure against the pandemic, government authorities worldwide have implemented and adopted strict policy interventions such as lockdown, social distancing, and quarantine, to curtail the disease transmission. Consequently, humans have been experiencing several ill impacts, while the natural environment has been reaping the benefits of the interventions. Therefore, it is imperative to understand the interlinked relationship between human society and the natural environment amid the current crisis. Herein, we performed a meta-analysis of existing literature reporting the various impacts of COVID-19 on human society and the natural environment. A conceptual model was developed to portray and address how the interaction of the existing elements of both sub-components of the coupled human-environment system (CHES) – human society and natural environment – are impacted by the government interventions. Results revealed a suite of positive and negative impacts of COVID-19 on both the sub-components. Our model provides an explicit impression of the complex nexus of CHES amid the current crisis. The proposed conceptual model could help in understanding the complex nexus by identifying the route of short-term impacts of COVID-19 measures and thus may aid in identifying priority areas for discussion and planning in similar other crises as well.


id: cord-352326-bj12pp9d
author: Bhattacharyya, A.
date: 2020-05-23
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url: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.21.20107946
doi: 10.1101/2020.05.21.20107946
summary:
  title: The connection of growth and medication of COVID-19 affected people after 30 days of lock down in India Hence, it is necessary to understand what the nature of growth is of spreading of this corona virus with time after almost one month (30 days) of lockdown. For controlling the spread of the COVID-19, minimization of the growth with minimum number of days of lockdown is necessary. We have presented the data of new cases, recovery and deaths per day to visualize the different coefficient for India and establish our theory. Recently a few mathematical models have come across to describe this spread of corona virus to estimate the minimum number of lockdown days to reach base line of the contamination [6] [7] [8] [9] . The scope of further improvement of recovery rate in India is also suggested in terms of application of medicine to COVID 19 affected people.

title:
  The connection of growth and medication of COVID-19 affected people after 30 days of lock down in India

abstract:
  The COVID-19 pandemic has already consumed few months of indolence all over the world. Almost every part of the world from which the victim of COVID 19 are, have not yet been able to find out a strong way to combat corona virus. Therefore, the main aim is to minimize the spreading of the COVID-19 by detecting most of the affected people during lockdown. Hence, it is necessary to understand what the nature of growth is of spreading of this corona virus with time after almost one month (30 days) of lockdown. In this paper we have developed a very simple mathematical model to describe the growth of spreading of corona virus in human being. This model is based on realistic fact and the statistics we have so far. For controlling the spread of the COVID-19, minimization of the growth with minimum number of days of lockdown is necessary. We have established a relation between the long-term recovery coefficient and the long-term infected coefficient. The growth can be minimized if such condition satisfies. We have also discussed how the different age of the people can be cured by applying different types of medicine. We have presented the data of new cases, recovery and deaths per day to visualize the different coefficient for India and establish our theory. We have also explained how the medicine could be effective to sustain and improve such condition for country having large population like India.


id: cord-353087-nxjfbo0h
author: Kumar, Amit
date: 2020-09-16
txt: ./txt/cord-353087-nxjfbo0h.txt
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mime: text/plain
url: https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/pii/S2352186420314644
doi: 10.1016/j.eti.2020.101164
summary:
  The present evaluation attempts to assess the long-term (1989–2016) physiochemical characteristics of WQ of river Ganga at five upstream locations (Uttarkashi, Tehri, Rudraprayag, Devprayag, and Rishikesh) of Uttarakhand, India using comprehensive pollution index (CPI) and environmetrics (PCA and CA). The rapid growth of human population, urbanization, and industrialization have stimulated the over-extraction of water from the freshwater sources (e.g., river, lakes) for various purposes of the daily demands of a comprehensive study of WQ assessment using long term data of physiochemical and biological parameters has not been reported in the upstream of the river Ganga. The long-term study estimates the WQ of river Ganga based on the physiochemical parameters at the five upstream locations of Uttarakhand, India using CPI, PCA, and HCA to categorize the WQ into different classes for understanding the hydrochemistry and cluster of similar water quality status.

title:
  Nature rejuvenation: Long-term (1989–2016) vs short-term memory approach based appraisal of water quality of the upper part of Ganga River, India

abstract:
  The deteriorating water quality (WQ) of the sacred north-flowing perennial Indian River, Ganga was a serious concern in recent decades for population adjoining to the river and policy planners. The present evaluation attempts to assess the long-term (1989–2016) physiochemical characteristics of WQ of river Ganga at five upstream locations (Uttarkashi, Tehri, Rudraprayag, Devprayag, and Rishikesh) of Uttarakhand, India using comprehensive pollution index (CPI) and environmetrics (PCA and CA). These methods were used to categorize, summarize expensive datasets, and grouping the similar polluted areas along the river stretches. The WQ of river at all the locations were within the good category and most of the physiochemical parameters were well within their acceptable limit for drinking WQ. Considerably, CPI demonstrated the river WQ was in slight pollution range (CPI: 0.40–1.00) in the year 2007 and 2015 at all the five locations. The positive correlation coefficient (R(2) > 0.50) among NO(2) [Formula: see text] NO(3), Ca, Na, B, and K indicates the significant contribution of organic and inorganic salts through runoffs from catchments due to weathering of rocks. PCA confirmed the input source of nutrients in the river from both natural and anthropogenic sources. Moreover, the upstream WQ assessed was found to be good as compared to the severely polluted downstream region. Due to COVID-19 and shutdown in the country, reduction of pollution load in the river was observed due to the rejuvenation capability of river Ganga. This information can assist the environmentalist, policymaker, and water resources planners & managers to prepare strategic planning in advance to maintain the aesthetic and cultural value of Ganga river in future.


id: cord-355023-68lp7i5v
title: Diet, Gut Microbiota and COVID-19
author: Rishi, Praveen
date: 2020-09-28
txt: ./txt/cord-355023-68lp7i5v.txt
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url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33012868/
doi: 10.1007/s12088-020-00908-0
summary:
  In this context, a plant based rich fiber diet, which happens to be consumed by a majority of the Indian population, appears to be advantageous, as it replenishes the host gut microbiota with beneficial microbes thereby leading to a symbiotic association conferring various health benefits to the host including enhanced immunity. Further, implementation of the lockdown which has proven to be a good non-pharmacological measure, seems to have resulted in consumption of home cooked healthy diet, thereby enriching the beneficial microflora in the gut, which might have resulted in better prognosis of COVID-19 patients in India in comparison to that observed in the western countries. Here, it may be inferred that plant based, home cooked, rich fiber diet consumed by the Indian population during lockdown, might have resulted in generation of symbiotic microflora, thereby eliciting anti-inflammatory responses.

abstract:
  Worldwide, millions of individuals have been affected by the prevailing SARS-CoV-2. Therefore, a robust immune system remains indispensable, as an immunocompromised host status has proven to be fatal. In the absence of any specific antiviral drug/vaccine, COVID-19 related drug repurposing along with various other non-pharmacological measures coupled with lockdown have been employed to combat this infection. In this context, a plant based rich fiber diet, which happens to be consumed by a majority of the Indian population, appears to be advantageous, as it replenishes the host gut microbiota with beneficial microbes thereby leading to a symbiotic association conferring various health benefits to the host including enhanced immunity. Further, implementation of the lockdown which has proven to be a good non-pharmacological measure, seems to have resulted in consumption of home cooked healthy diet, thereby enriching the beneficial microflora in the gut, which might have resulted in better prognosis of COVID-19 patients in India in comparison to that observed in the western countries.


id: cord-355650-1x66nxgx
title: Will COVID-19 pandemic diminish by summer-monsoon in India? Lesson from the first lockdown
author: Kumar, S.
date: 2020-04-25
txt: ./txt/cord-355650-1x66nxgx.txt
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extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.22.20075499
doi: 10.1101/2020.04.22.20075499
summary:
  We have investigated the effect of meteorological parameters like Temperature, relative humidity, and absolute humidity on the rate of spread of COVID-19 using daily confirm cases in India. For this, we have investigated the association of aerosols (AOD) and other pollutions (NO 2 ) with COVID-19 cases during the study period and also during the first lockdown period (25 March-15 April) in India. For this, we have investigated the association of aerosols (AOD) and other pollutions (NO 2 ) with COVID-19 cases during the study period and also during the first lockdown period (25 March-15 April) in India. We have studies the total number of daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 and its association with the temperature, relative humidity, and absolute humidity over India for March and April 2020.

abstract:
  The novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was identified in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, in December 2019 and has created a medical emergency worldwide. It has spread rapidly to multiple countries and has been declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization. In India, it is already reported more than 18 thousand cases and more than 600 deaths due to Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) till April 20, 2020. Previous studies on various viral infections like influenza have supported an epidemiological hypothesis that the cold and dry (low absolute humidity) environments favor the survival and spread of droplet-mediated viral diseases. These viral transmissions found attenuated in warm and humid (high absolute humidity) environments. However, the role of temperature, humidity, and absolute humidity in the transmission of COVID-19 has not yet been well established. Therefore the study to investigate the meteorological condition for incidence and spread of COVID-19 infection, to predict the epidemiology of the infectious disease, and to provide a scientific basis for prevention and control measures against the new disease is required for India. In this work, we analyze the local weather patterns of the Indian region affected by the COVID-19 virus for March and April months, 2020. We have investigated the effect of meteorological parameters like Temperature, relative humidity, and absolute humidity on the rate of spread of COVID-19 using daily confirm cases in India. We have used daily averaged meteorological data for the last three years (2017-2019) for March and April month and the same for the year 2020 for March 1 to April 15. We found a positive association (Pearsons r=0.56) between temperature and daily COVID-19 cases over India. We found a negative association of humidity (RH and AH) with daily COVID-19 Cases (Persons r=-0.62, -0.37). We have also investigated the role of aerosol in spreading the pandemic across India because its possible airborne nature. For this, we have investigated the association of aerosols (AOD) and other pollutions (NO2) with COVID-19 cases during the study period and also during the first lockdown period (25 March-15 April) in India. We found a negative association in March when there were few cases, but in April, it shows positive association when the number of cases is more (for AOD it was r=-0.41 and r=0.28 respectively). During the lockdown period, aerosols (AOD) and other pollutants (NO2; an indicator of PM2.5) reduced sharply with a percentage drop of about 36 and 37, respectively. This reduction may have reduced the risk for COVID-19 through air transmission due to the unavailability of aerosol particles as a base. HYSPLIT forward trajectory model also shows that surface aerosols may travel up to 4 km according to wind and direction within three h of its generation. If coronavirus becomes airborne as suggested by many studies, then it may have a higher risk of transmission by aerosols particles. So relaxing in the lockdown and environmental rules in terms of pollutant emissions from power plants, factories, and other facilities would be a wrong choice and could result in more COVID-19 incidences and deaths in India. Therefore the current study, although limited, suggests that it is doubtful that the spread of COVID-19 would slow down in India due to meteorological factors, like high temperature and high humidity. Because a large number of cases have already been reported in the range of high Tem, high Relative, and high absolute humidity regions of India. Thus our results in no way suggest that COVID-19 would not spread in warm, humid regions or during summer/monsoon. So effective public health interventions should be implemented across India to slow down the transmission of COVID-19. If COVID-19 is indeed sensitive to environmental factors, it could be tested in the coming summer-monsoon for India. So the only summer is not going to help India until monsoon is coming. Only government mitigations strategies would be helpful, whether its lockdown, aggressive and strategic testing, medical facilities, imposing social distancing, encouraging to use face mask or monitoring by a mobile application (Aarogya Setu).


