# pos

id: cord-027753-cr73br4t
pos: NNPS
token:
  https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/policeman-s-hand-chopped-off-two-others-injured-in-attack-by-nihangis-inpun-1666075-2020-04-12

lemma:
  https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/policeman-s-hand-chopped-off-two-others-injured-in-attack-by-nihangis-inpun-1666075-2020-04-12


id: cord-027753-cr73br4t
pos: NNPS
token:
  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-13/doctors-come-under-attack-in-india-as-coronavirus-stigmagrows

lemma:
  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-13/doctors-come-under-attack-in-india-as-coronavirus-stigmagrows


id: cord-027753-cr73br4t
pos: NNP
token:
  https://www.deccanherald.com/national/north-and-central/tablighi-jamaat-attendees-quarantined-in-ghaziabad-hos

lemma:
  https://www.deccanherald.com/national/north-and-central/tablighi-jamaat-attendees-quarantined-in-ghaziabad-hos


id: cord-027753-cr73br4t
pos: NN
token:
  https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/other-states/aiims-doctors-beaten-up-by-policemen-in-bhopal/art

lemma:
  https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/other-states/aiims-doctors-beaten-up-by-policemen-in-bhopal/art


id: cord-027753-cr73br4t
pos: NNP
token:
  https://in.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-southasia/indian-police-fire-tear-gas-at-jobless-workers-defying-cor

lemma:
  https://in.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-southasia/indian-police-fire-tear-gas-at-jobless-workers-defying-cor


id: cord-027753-cr73br4t
pos: NNS
token:
  https://theprint.in/theprint-essential/modi-govt-is-using-two-laws-to-tackle-coronavirus-spread-but-one-of-themneeds-changes/386052/.

lemma:
  https://theprint.in/theprint-essential/modi-govt-is-using-two-laws-to-tackle-coronavirus-spread-but-one-of-themneeds-changes/386052/.


id: cord-027753-cr73br4t
pos: NNP
token:
  https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/nsa-to-be-slapped-against-persons-who-attack-police

lemma:
  https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/nsa-to-be-slapped-against-persons-who-attack-police


id: cord-027753-cr73br4t
pos: NNP
token:
  https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/lockdown-violation-568-arrested-rs-13-lakh-collectedas-fine-in-up/articleshow/75096088.cms

lemma:
  https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/lockdown-violation-568-arrested-rs-13-lakh-collectedas-fine-in-up/articleshow/75096088.cms


id: cord-027753-cr73br4t
pos: NN
token:
  https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/coronavirus-group-hosts-cow-urine-party-says-covid-19-due-to-meat-eaters/

lemma:
  https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/coronavirus-group-hosts-cow-urine-party-says-covid-19-due-to-meat-eaters/


id: cord-027753-cr73br4t
pos: NNP
token:
  https://scroll.in/article/957891/tablighi-jamaat-how-did-the-government-fail-to-detect-a-coronavirus-infection-hotspot

lemma:
  https://scroll.in/article/957891/tablighi-jamaat-how-did-the-government-fail-to-detect-a-coronavirus-infection-hotspot


id: cord-027753-cr73br4t
pos: '
token:
  https://www.outlookindia.com/website/story/opinion-in-the-time-of-corona-responsibilities-of-religious-leaders-go-be

lemma:
  https://www.outlookindia.com/website/story/opinion-in-the-time-of-corona-responsibilities-of-religious-leaders-go-be


id: cord-288703-wdh1jiry
pos: NNP
token:
  https://scroll.in/pulse/843567/india-is-expandingzika-surveillance-but-there-was-an-element-of-luckin-finding-the-tamil-nadu-case

lemma:
  https://scroll.in/pulse/843567/india-is-expandingzika-surveillance-but-there-was-an-element-of-luckin-finding-the-tamil-nadu-case


id: cord-317781-rfr60we7
pos: NNP
token:
  https://www.grainmart.in/news/a-new-wave-of-coronavirus-spread-seen-in-punjabthrough-nanded-hazur-sahib-pilgrims/

lemma:
  https://www.grainmart.in/news/a-new-wave-of-coronavirus-spread-seen-in-punjabthrough-nanded-hazur-sahib-pilgrims/


id: cord-351179-of5qgl90
pos: NNP
token:
  https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politicsand-nation/after-janata-curfew-india-gets-ready-for-long-haul/articleshow/74765039.cms

lemma:
  https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politicsand-nation/after-janata-curfew-india-gets-ready-for-long-haul/articleshow/74765039.cms


# ent

id: cord-031984-kcs6oukj
type: ORG
entity:
  the Centre for Advanced Modelling and Geospatial Information Systems CAMGIS Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology


id: cord-254955-q5gb4qkq
type: ORG
entity:
  Forecasting Novel Corona Positive Cases in Indiausing Truncated Information A Mathematical Approach date


id: cord-021937-p9vqpazu
type: EVENT
entity:
  the International Conference on Harmonization of Technical Requirements for Registration of Pharmaceuticals for Human Use


id: cord-021937-p9vqpazu
type: ORG
entity:
  World Health Organization Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division Vaccine Preventable Diseases Surveillance Program


id: cord-223332-51670qld
type: ORG
entity:
  the Council of European Union The Personal Data Protection Bill Social Security Number Protection Act


id: cord-223332-51670qld
type: WORK_OF_ART
entity:
  Large Sparse Datasets Security Without Identification Transaction Systems to Make Big Brother Obsolete Showing Credentials Without Identification


id: cord-223332-51670qld
type: WORK_OF_ART
entity:
  Credential Sharing A Pitfall of Anonymous Credentials Untraceable Electronic Mail Return Addresses and Digital Pseudonyms


id: cord-223332-51670qld
type: WORK_OF_ART
entity:
  Towards Defining Semantic Foundations for Purpose Based Privacy Policies Formalizing and Enforcing Purpose Restrictions in Privacy Policies


id: cord-223332-51670qld
type: ORG
entity:
  Order Execution Sanctum Minimal Hardware Extensions for Strong Software Isolation Practical Techniques for Searches on Encrypted Data Public Key Encryption


id: cord-223332-51670qld
type: ORG
entity:
  India Apps Gone Rogue Maintaining Personal Privacy in an Epidemic Anonymous Collocation Discovery Harnessing Privacy to Tame the Coronavirus Epione Lightweight Contact Tracing with Strong


id: cord-025668-ibrzx2c4
type: ORG
entity:
  the National Metrology Institute of the country National Accreditation Board for Testing and Calibration Laboratories


id: cord-025668-ibrzx2c4
type: ORG
entity:
  Directorate General for Foreign Trade Ministry of Drinking Water and Sanitation Ministry of Health Family Welfare Food Safety and Standards Authority of India


id: cord-261583-gahlq2uh
type: ORG
entity:
  International Monetary Fund United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research Examine


id: cord-255399-4jtfnuf2
type: ORG
entity:
  Department of Respiratory Therapy Manipal College of Health Professions Manipal Academy of Higher Education


id: cord-257004-zpyms1b7
type: DISEASE
entity:
  rotaviruses in faeces Quantitation of Group A Rotavirus by Real Time ReverseTranscription Polymerase chain reaction


id: cord-143246-f97v2cih
type: ORG
entity:
  MERS CoV Endemic Country Occurrence Prevention and Management of the Psychological Effects of Emerging Virus Outbreaks


id: cord-143246-f97v2cih
type: WORK_OF_ART
entity:
  The Effect of Travel Restrictions on the Spread of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus COVID 19 Outbreak The Moment to See the Poor


id: cord-016557-f2mzwhrt
type: CELL_LINE
entity:
  Chinese hamster ovary CHO hypoxanthine guanine phosphoribosyl transferase mammalian cell forward gene


id: cord-016557-f2mzwhrt
type: GGP
entity:
  miticides e g avermectins azobenzene benzoximate bromopropylate dofenapyn nikkomycins tetranactin ii Algicides


id: cord-016557-f2mzwhrt
type: CHEMICAL
entity:
  ulceration acid base disturbances renal failure hypotension cardiac arrest pulmonary dysfunction convulsions coma


id: cord-016557-f2mzwhrt
type: CHEMICAL
entity:
  3 ethoxypropyl mercury bromide ethylmercury acetate ethylmercury bromide ethylmercury chloride ethylmercury 2 3 dihydroxypropyl mercaptide ethylmercury phosphate N ethylmercury ptoluenesulphonanilide


id: cord-264296-0x90yubt
type: GGP
entity:
  bioRxiv DOI 10 1101 2020 06 03 131987 sha ed6efa757ae5582f4a6108e97d2f40c7cb320584 doc_id 264296 cord_uid 0x90yubt Covid 19 pandemic caused


id: cord-014462-11ggaqf1
type: PROTEIN
entity:
  amino acid residues 40 239 By Mass spectrometric analysis of the protein Threonine 84 and Serine 202


id: cord-014462-11ggaqf1
type: CL
entity:
  stromal and epithelial keratitis may not be possible but collecting tear fluid is a convenient procedure causing less discomfort to the patients Therefore the present study was intended to evaluate the suitability of tear specimens for detecting HSV by polymerase chain


id: cord-014462-11ggaqf1
type: GGP
entity:
  Cucumis sativus Cucurbita pepo Cucumis melo Langeneria vulgaris Momordica charantia and local assay host


id: cord-014462-11ggaqf1
type: CL
entity:
  stem and necrotic rings on leaves and fruits Early infection led to severe stunting and abnormal fruiting Biological and molecular


id: cord-014462-11ggaqf1
type: FAC
entity:
  Pratibha Singh H S Savithri Department of Biochemistry Indian Institute of Science Bangalore Tospoviruses


id: cord-025948-6dsx7pey
type: DNA
entity:
  miR 3162 3p 3 hsa miR 4699 3p 2 hsa miR 6826 3p 3 hsa miR 299 5p 3 hsa miR 5195 5p 3 hsa miR 12132 1 hsa miR 24 1 5p 2 hsa miR 3679 3p 3 hsa miR 642b 5p 3 hsa miR 24 2 5p 2 sites


id: cord-025948-6dsx7pey
type: DISEASE
entity:
  influenza A H3N2 virus in London Identification of immunodominant sites on the Spike protein of severe acute respiratory syndrome SARS coronavirus


id: cord-001617-ff3j7i7i
type: PROTEIN
entity:
  creatinine urea bilirubin aspartate aminotransferase alanine aminotransferase gamma glutamyltransferase albumin


id: cord-262480-e0dq1t1v
type: GGP
entity:
  Syndr DOI 10 1016 j dsx 2020 06 057 sha 54e9a6f5428ad76903479f71c6a9c56188a5a86d doc_id 262480 cord_uid e0dq1t1v nan


id: cord-255574-gqekw0si
type: TAXON
entity:
  teals Anas chlorotis swans Cygnus atratus shags Phalocrocorax carbo seagull Larus Novaehollandiae Scopulinus pheasant Phasianus colchicus turkeys Meleagris gallopavo


id: cord-255574-gqekw0si
type: ORG
entity:
  The Animals and Animal Products Examination for Residues and Maximum Residue Limits Regulations 1997


id: cord-255574-gqekw0si
type: WORK_OF_ART
entity:
  H5N1 Personal Consumption Exemptions and Small Lot Production Programs for Regulated Agricultural Products


id: cord-255574-gqekw0si
type: FAC
entity:
  a Holistic View on Disease Problems in Free Range Chickens FAO IAEA Programme Improvement of Management and Biosecurity Practices in Smallholder Producers Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations Soil


id: cord-030014-dx6itceo
type: WORK_OF_ART
entity:
  The Production of Hindu Muslim Violence in Contemporary India Votes and Violence Electoral Competition and Ethnic Riots in India


id: cord-278379-wr8j6j36
type: ORG
entity:
  India Committee for Agriculture Implementation of Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act Understanding


id: cord-277123-ekaqbruo
type: DISEASE
entity:
  diabetes hypertension obesity chronic heart disease respiratory illness kidney disease liver disease


id: cord-262460-d6t4m6xc
type: ORG
entity:
  People Chapter Women s Empowerment Multidimensional Evaluation of Agency Social Capital Relations WE MEASR A Tool to Measure Women s Empowerment in Sexual Reproductive and Maternal Health Programs Women Girls


id: cord-262460-d6t4m6xc
type: ORG
entity:
  SDG Knowledge Hub IISD International Institute for Sciences International Women s Health Coalition n d


id: cord-131975-9z3skg4n
type: DISEASE
entity:
  shortness of breath muscle ache confusion headache sore throat rhinorrhea chest pain haemoptysis diarrhoea dyspnoea


id: cord-002774-tpqsjjet
type: GGP
entity:
  Ii 0 11 p 0 01 and symptoms of pain Ii 0 14 p 0 01 fatigue ji 0 34 p 0 001 and cognitive difficulties p 0 30 P 0 001 For the three dimensions of the IIRS multiple regression results revealed 1


id: cord-002774-tpqsjjet
type: LAW
entity:
  The Collaborative Process to Achieve Access to Primary Health Care for Black Women and Women of Colour Project


id: cord-002774-tpqsjjet
type: EVENT
entity:
  Black Women and Women of Colour Women s Health in Women s Hands Community Health Centre Sistering Parkdale Community Health Centre Rexdale Community Health Centre


id: cord-002774-tpqsjjet
type: LAW
entity:
  P5 77 C Health and Livelihood Implications of Marginalization of Slum Dwellers in Provision of Water and Sanitation Services


id: cord-002774-tpqsjjet
type: DISEASE
entity:
  HIV Criminal justice system involvement was measured by arrest incarceration drug felony and loss denial of social services


id: cord-018706-gykw2nvt
type: WORK_OF_ART
entity:
  Emerging and Transboundary Animal Viral Diseases Perspectives and Preparedness date 2020 02 23 journal


id: cord-274849-awv8sp8m
type: GGP
entity:
  Syndr DOI 10 1016 j dsx 2020 09 003 sha 28a3a0b03e7270a5035c7d427b0f6da564140514 doc_id 274849 cord_uid awv8sp8m


id: cord-287362-dhl7ynrc
type: GGP
entity:
  Syndr DOI 10 1016 j dsx 2020 09 022 sha c5c67db837a062293dd1bde4433bac6b24f5135a doc_id 287362 cord_uid dhl7ynrc BACKGROUND AND AIMS The link between diabetes and increased risk of infectious disease


id: cord-288770-hquc2v2c
type: CELL_LINE
entity:
  COVID 19 India Covid 19 Tracker 2020 Centrality and network flow Visual analysis of network centralities India Coronavirus lockdown


id: cord-292045-pnid9dmq
type: ORG
entity:
  SARS CoV 2 Potential Emergence of Antiviral Resistant Pandemic Viruses via Environmental Drug Exposure of Animal Reservoirs Frontier


id: cord-295074-fsbp4fky
type: PROTEIN
entity:
  cord 295074 fsbp4fky authors Broor Shobha Dawood Fatimah S Pandey Bharti G Saha Siddhartha Gupta Vivek Krishnan Anand Rai Sanjay Singh Pratibha Erdman Dean Lal Renu B title


id: cord-295074-fsbp4fky
type: DISEASE
entity:
  influenza and parainfluenza viruses respiratory syncytial virus RSV human metapneumovirus coronaviruses and adenovirus Average annual hospitalization incidence was calculated using census data and adjusted for hospitalizations


id: cord-302677-6mfnxkaw
type: ORG
entity:
  World Health Organization WHO Revised National Tuberculosis Control Programme RNTCP National Strategic Plan


id: cord-302677-6mfnxkaw
type: WORK_OF_ART
entity:
  360 Report of a WHO Expert Committee National Sample Survey Office Ministry of Statistics and Programme 363 Implementation Government of India Distribution System and Other Sources of Household Consumption National Nutrition Monitoring Bureau India Rural Third Repeat Survey of Diet


id: cord-302677-6mfnxkaw
type: ORG
entity:
  Indians National Sample Survey Office Ministry of Statistics and Programme 426 Implementation Government of India Nutritional Intake


id: cord-296840-vo27imub
type: ORG
entity:
  WHO Guide for Effective Programmes World Health Organization Guide to Cancer Early Diagnosis World Health Organization


id: cord-296840-vo27imub
type: ORG
entity:
  Government of India National Programme for Prevention and Control of Cancer Diabetes Cardiovascular Diseases


id: cord-292485-vk5xy3zn
type: WORK_OF_ART
entity:
  Conserving Supply of Personal Protective Equipment A Call for Ideas Pandemic Policy in Developing Countries Recommendations for India


id: cord-295013-ew9n9i7z
type: ORG
entity:
  Geneva World Health Organization Primary Health Care on the Road to Universal Health Coverage Monitoring


id: cord-295013-ew9n9i7z
type: ORG
entity:
  India Ministry of Health and Family Welfare Ayushman Bharat National Health Protection Mission New Delhi


id: cord-308187-t68d7b20
type: CHEBI
entity:
  plant pathogen Xylella fastidiosa The Xylella fastidiosa Consortium of the Organization for Nucleotide


id: cord-308187-t68d7b20
type: ORG
entity:
  the Institute of Genomics and Integrative Biology IGIB the Centre for Cellular and Molecular Biology


id: cord-308187-t68d7b20
type: ORG
entity:
  The Xylella fastidiosa Consortium of the Organization for Nucleotide Sequencing and Analysis Brazilian


id: cord-300817-cxc00k0d
type: CELL_LINE
entity:
  India COVID 19 Statewise Status Government of India Domestic fuels indoor air pollution and children s health the case of rural India The SARS MERS


id: cord-323816-3m1iu9j2
type: WORK_OF_ART
entity:
  Association Between Universal Masking in a Health Care System and SARS CoV 2 Positivity Among Characteristics of Persons Who Died with COVID 19


id: cord-323816-3m1iu9j2
type: DISEASE
entity:
  hypertension diabetes obesity cardiovascular disease CVD cerebrovascular accident CVA chronic obstructive pulmonary disease COPD asthma chronic kidney disease CKD


id: cord-323816-3m1iu9j2
type: DISEASE
entity:
  obesity diabetes hypertension cardiovascular disease chronic kidney disease cancer chronic pulmonary disease


id: cord-305498-8tmtvw1r
type: ORG
entity:
  Discussion Forum American College of Surgeons COVID 19 Recommendations for Management of Elective Sources of Support


id: cord-320640-5m6sqwq8
type: ORG
entity:
  Global Warming Potential GWP Human Toxicity Potential HTP Eutrophication Potential EP Acidification Potential AP Freshwater Aquatic Ecotoxicity Potential FAETP and Photochemical Ozone Depletion Potential POCP


id: cord-320640-5m6sqwq8
type: ORG
entity:
  Global Warming Potential GWP Human Toxicity Potential HTP Acidification Potential AP Eutrophication Potential EP Freshwater Aquatic Ecotoxicity Potential FAETP and Photochemical Ozone Creation Potential POCP Rejane


id: cord-303523-m16vlv1q
type: ORG
entity:
  Interim Healthcare Infection Prevention and Control Recommendations for Patients Under Investigation


id: cord-304203-lhqvi3j0
type: GGP
entity:
  Syndr DOI 10 1016 j dsx 2020 07 004 sha 570ff2a2bc7f28aa786b6938a46c81ed37ceef08 doc_id 304203 cord_uid lhqvi3j0 BACKGROUND AND AIMS Covid 19


id: cord-330814-7incf20e
type: ORG
entity:
  the World Health Organization WHO UpToDate Indian Council of Medical Research ICMR Center for Disease Control


id: cord-330814-7incf20e
type: ORG
entity:
  The Economic Times Bhilwara s Tale of Negligence Infected Docs Latest COVID 19 Case Hint at Possible Community


id: cord-322233-1i6zj9b3
type: PROTEIN
entity:
  SCL3 1 2 4 2 6 7 8 8 8 8 SCL4 12 15 16 21 16 16 16 16 16 16 IP1 34 34 34 32 34 34 34 34 34 34 IP2 33 33 33 30 33 33 33 33 33 33 IP3 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 IP4 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 IP5 38 38 38 37 38 38 38 38 38 38 IP6 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 23 24 24 29 24 24 24 24 24 24 CM3 15 17 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 CM4 19 21 21 23 21 21 21 21 21 21 CM5 10 12 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 OC1 20 22 22 16 22 22 22 22 22 22 OC2 24 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 OC3 30 30 30 35 30 30 30 30 30 30


id: cord-322233-1i6zj9b3
type: GGP
entity:
  RG1 7 3 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 RG2 5 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 RG3 9 5 3 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 RG4 14 8 5 10 4 4 4 4 4 4 RG5 25 19 15 26 11 9 7 7 7 7 RG6 17 10 6 12 5 5 5 5 5 5


id: cord-322233-1i6zj9b3
type: GGP
entity:
  SCL3 1 2 4 2 6 7 8 8 8 8 SCL4 12 15 16 21 16 16 16 16 16 16 IP1 34 34 34 32 34 34 34 34 34 34 IP2 33 33 33 30 33 33 33 33 33 33 IP3 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 IP4 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 IP5 38 38 38 37 38 38 38 38 38 38 IP6 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 23 24 24 29 24 24 24 24 24 24 CM3 15 17 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 CM4 19 21 21 23 21 21 21 21 21 21 CM5 10 12 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 OC1 20 22 22 16 22 22 22 22 22 22 OC2 24 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 OC3 30 30 30 35 30 30 30 30 30 30 OC4 27 27 27 31 27 27 27 27 27 27 OC5 16 18 19 11 19 19 19 19 19 19 At 0 1


id: cord-317781-rfr60we7
type: ORG
entity:
  the Worldwide Corona Virus COVID 19 Pandemic Trend A Modelling Study to Predict Its Spread medRxiv Outbreak


id: cord-316450-iw35sorz
type: ORG
entity:
  Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Coronavirus COVID 19 Information for Healthcare Professionals Ministry of Health and Family Welfare Government


id: cord-311669-112kxj5s
type: ORG
entity:
  World Health Organization Health Canada World Meteorological Association United Nations Environment Programme Predication of Pandemic COVID 19


id: cord-323371-a27okymx
type: ORG
entity:
  Better Employers Crises Pandemics and Reorganization Resurgent Asia Diversity in Development Size Dependent Tax Incentive Threshold Effects


id: cord-338466-7uvta990
type: ORG
entity:
  the Logistic Model Mathematical Models in Population Biology and Epidemiology Modelling Transmission and Control of the Covid 19


id: cord-338466-7uvta990
type: ORG
entity:
  Joinpoint Regression Program National Institutes of Health United States Department of Health and Human Services


id: cord-320685-zriofqez
type: ORG
entity:
  National Institute of Child Health and Human Development National Cancer Institute National Institute of Mental Health National Institute on Drug


id: cord-331143-e9h7tq0x
type: DNA
entity:
  IMF Kristalina Georgieva said the World economy had entered a recession as bad or worse than the global financial crisis of 2008 2009 Elliott 2020 This global outbreak


id: cord-331143-e9h7tq0x
type: ORG
entity:
  Govt Business Standard News Government of India Ministry of Finance Department of Economic Affairs Economic Division North Block


id: cord-342498-f93jma3d
type: ORG
entity:
  Burden on Public Health Facilities A Situational Analysis Paper for Policy Makers International Institute for Population Sciences Guideline on Movement of Persons


id: cord-331092-eocse0xa
type: ORG
entity:
  the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering JHUCSSE 6 and Statistics and Research Coronavirus


id: cord-325726-65xxevp3
type: PROTEIN
entity:
  3D printing 25 26 27 28 a Traditional Supply chain b 3D Printing supply chain Fig 1 Traditional versus 3D printing supply chain 29 Makers


id: cord-325726-65xxevp3
type: FAC
entity:
  Research Square Technical Note Stopgap Face Mask SFM Instructions for Use Applications of 3D Printing Technology


id: cord-325726-65xxevp3
type: ORG
entity:
  Networked System and Methods for Combating Coronavirus Disease COVID 19 Pandemic Future Generation Computer Systems Application


id: cord-327745-nm8ladlm
type: ORG
entity:
  India Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs Goverment of


id: cord-327745-nm8ladlm
type: ORG
entity:
  India Ministry of Women and Child Development Revised Guidelines and Application Format on Support to Training and Employment Programmer for Women


id: cord-324335-eoabmyg7
type: CHEMICAL
entity:
  aldehydes citral citronellal ketones menthone pulegone carvone bicyclic monoterpene ketones thujone verbenone fenchone acids


id: cord-324335-eoabmyg7
type: DISEASE
entity:
  human disease genes that natural product targets which remain the most highly connected targets This sentence indicates a positive and useful consideration about the role and activity of natural products Natural products


id: cord-324335-eoabmyg7
type: CHEMICAL
entity:
  Azadirachta indica A Juss Quassinoids structural diversity biological activity and synthetic studies Public health impact of pesticides


id: cord-344948-cve3mqd8
type: ORG
entity:
  Food Security Policy Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development State of Food Security and Nutrition


id: cord-333132-m0tkgf7x
type: ORG
entity:
  Government of India Ministry of Health and Family Welfare Directorate General of Health Services EMR Division


id: cord-347504-pkkh9uy4
type: DNA
entity:
  Coronavirus and COVID 19 Pandemic A Review COVID 19 20 Countries Higher Education Intra Period Digital Pedagogy Responses Influence of COVID 19 confinement in students performance


id: cord-351323-cbejbm5v
type: DISEASE
entity:
  influenza C virus parainfluenza viruses 1 4 human rhinovirus metapneumovirus and respiratory syncytial virus by conventional RT


id: cord-351323-cbejbm5v
type: DISEASE
entity:
  influenza B viruses J Med Virol 85 1459 1465 2013 2013 Wiley Periodicals Inc Acute respiratory infections


id: cord-355650-1x66nxgx
type: PRODUCT
entity:
  the Emerging Pathogen Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Microbiol Temperature Relative Humidity


id: cord-350429-v36lrg3p
type: GGP
entity:
  Syndr DOI 10 1016 j dsx 2020 06 036 sha f8c8de4dbc735bae3997ea3e2b795067541749b1 doc_id 350429 cord_uid v36lrg3p


id: cord-352326-bj12pp9d
type: CHEMICAL
entity:
  N 1 t N 10 a 1 t b 1 t 2 c 1 t 3 N 2 t N 20 a 2 t b 2 t 2 c 2 t 3 N 3 t N 30 a 3 t where a i b i c i are the co efficient


# url

id: cord-027753-cr73br4t
domain: www.indiatoday.in
url:
  http://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/policeman-s-hand-chopped-off-two-others-injured-in-attack-by-nihangis-inpun-1666075-2020-04-12


id: cord-027753-cr73br4t
domain: www.bloomberg.com
url:
  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-13/doctors-come-under-attack-in-india-as-coronavirus-stigmagrows


id: cord-027753-cr73br4t
domain: www.deccanherald.com
url:
  http://www.deccanherald.com/national/north-and-central/tablighi-jamaat-attendees-quarantined-in-ghaziabad-hos


id: cord-027753-cr73br4t
domain: www.thehindu.com
url:
  http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/other-states/aiims-doctors-beaten-up-by-policemen-in-bhopal/art


id: cord-027753-cr73br4t
domain: in.reuters.com
url:
  http://in.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-southasia/indian-police-fire-tear-gas-at-jobless-workers-defying-cor


id: cord-027753-cr73br4t
domain: theprint.in
url:
  http://theprint.in/theprint-essential/modi-govt-is-using-two-laws-to-tackle-coronavirus-spread-but-one-of-themneeds-changes/386052/


id: cord-027753-cr73br4t
domain: economictimes.indiatimes.com
url:
  http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/nsa-to-be-slapped-against-persons-who-attack-police


id: cord-027753-cr73br4t
domain: economictimes.indiatimes.com
url:
  http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/lockdown-violation-568-arrested-rs-13-lakh-collectedas-fine-in-up/articleshow/75096088.cms


id: cord-027753-cr73br4t
domain: www.thehindu.com
url:
  http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/coronavirus-group-hosts-cow-urine-party-says-covid-19-due-to-meat-eaters/


id: cord-027753-cr73br4t
domain: scroll.in
url:
  http://scroll.in/article/957891/tablighi-jamaat-how-did-the-government-fail-to-detect-a-coronavirus-infection-hotspot


id: cord-027753-cr73br4t
domain: www.outlookindia.com
url:
  http://www.outlookindia.com/website/story/opinion-in-the-time-of-corona-responsibilities-of-religious-leaders-go-be


id: cord-317781-rfr60we7
domain: www.grainmart.in
url:
  http://www.grainmart.in/news/a-new-wave-of-coronavirus-spread-seen-in-punjabthrough-nanded-hazur-sahib-pilgrims/


id: cord-288703-wdh1jiry
domain: scroll.in
url:
  http://scroll.in/pulse/843567/india-is-expandingzika-surveillance-but-there-was-an-element-of-luckin-finding-the-tamil-nadu-case


id: cord-351179-of5qgl90
domain: economictimes.indiatimes.com
url:
  http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politicsand-nation/after-janata-curfew-india-gets-ready-for-long-haul/articleshow/74765039.cms


# bib

id: cord-001549-m5qabh1k
title: A Bayesian Inferential Approach to Quantify the Transmission Intensity of Disease Outbreak
author: Kadi, Adiveppa S.
date: 2015-02-15
txt: ./txt/cord-001549-m5qabh1k.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-001549-m5qabh1k.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4345055/
doi: 10.1155/2015/256319
summary:
  We have used Bayesian approach to quantify the disease outbreak through key epidemiological parameter basic reproduction number (R (0)), using effective contacts, defined as sum of the product of incidence cases and probability of generation time distribution. The importance of basic reproduction number 0 becomes more apparent when an emerging infectious disease strikes a population which is a key concept in the epidemic theory. Our analysis is based on the pandemic influenza A/H1N1 in India 2009 through the Bayesian estimates of basic reproduction number; we used the daily reported cases to calculate effective contacts. Our estimated value of the basic reproduction number indicates the milder intensity of disease transmission in India. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number of a vaccinated epidemic model of influenza

abstract:
  Background. Emergence of infectious diseases like influenza pandemic (H1N1) 2009 has become great concern, which posed new challenges to the health authorities worldwide. To control these diseases various studies have been developed in the field of mathematical modelling, which is useful tool for understanding the epidemiological dynamics and their dependence on social mixing patterns. Method. We have used Bayesian approach to quantify the disease outbreak through key epidemiological parameter basic reproduction number (R (0)), using effective contacts, defined as sum of the product of incidence cases and probability of generation time distribution. We have estimated R (0) from daily case incidence data for pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009 in India, for the initial phase. Result. The estimated R (0) with 95% credible interval is consistent with several other studies on the same strain. Through sensitivity analysis our study indicates that infectiousness affects the estimate of R (0). Conclusion. Basic reproduction number R (0) provides the useful information to the public health system to do some effort in controlling the disease by using mitigation strategies like vaccination, quarantine, and so forth.


id: cord-001617-ff3j7i7i
author: Siqueira, André M
date: 2015-03-20
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4404636/
doi: 10.1186/s12916-015-0302-y
title:
  Characterization of Plasmodium vivax-associated admissions to reference hospitals in Brazil and India

abstract:
  BACKGROUND: The benign character formerly attributed to Plasmodium vivax infection has been dismantled by the increasing number of reports of severe disease associated with infection with this parasite, prompting the need for more thorough and comprehensive characterization of the spectrum of resulting clinical complications. Endemic areas exhibit wide variations regarding severe disease frequency. This study, conducted simultaneously in Brazil and India, constitutes, to our knowledge, the first multisite study focused on clinical characterization of P. vivax severe disease. METHODS: Patients admitted with P. vivax mono-infection at reference centers in Manaus (Amazon - Brazil) and Bikaner (Rajasthan - India), where P. vivax predominates, were submitted to standard thorough clinical and laboratory evaluations in order to characterize clinical manifestations and identify concurrent co-morbidities. RESULTS: In total, 778 patients (88.0% above 12 years old) were hospitalized at clinical discretion with PCR-confirmed P. vivax mono-infection (316 in Manaus and 462 in Bikaner), of which 197 (25.3%) presented at least one severity criterion as defined by the World Health Organization (2010). Hyperlactatemia, respiratory distress, hypoglycemia, and disseminated intravascular coagulation were more frequent in Manaus. Noteworthy, pregnancy status was associated as a risk factor for severe disease (OR = 2.03; 95% CI = 1.2-3.4; P = 0.007). The overall case fatality rate was 0.3/1,000 cases in Manaus and 6.1/1,000 cases in Bikaner, with all deaths occurring among patients fulfilling at least one severity criterion. Within this subgroup, case fatality rates increased respectively to 7.5% in Manaus and 4.4% in Bikaner. CONCLUSION: P. vivax-associated severity is not negligible, and although lethality observed for complicated cases was similar, the overall fatality rate was about 20-fold higher in India compared to Brazil, highlighting the variability observed in different settings. Our observations highlight that pregnant women and patients with co-morbidities need special attention when infected by this parasite due to higher risk of complications. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12916-015-0302-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.


id: cord-002774-tpqsjjet
title: Section II: Poster Sessions
author: nan
date: 2017-12-01
txt: ./txt/cord-002774-tpqsjjet.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-002774-tpqsjjet.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5711696/
doi: 10.1093/jurban/jti137
abstract: nan
summary:
  Results: The CHIP Framework The CHIP framework aims to improve the health and wellness of the urban communities served by St. Josephs Health Centre through four intersecting pillars: • Raising Community Voices provides an infrastructure and process that supports community stakeholder input into health care service planning, decision-making, and delivery by the hospital and across the continuum of care; • Sharing Reciprocal Capacity promotes healthy communities through the sharing of our intellectual and physical capacity with our community partners; • Cultivating Integration Initiatives facilitates vertical, horizontal, and intersectoral integration initiatives in support of community-identified needs and gaps; and • Facilitating Healthy Exchange develops best practices in community integration through community-based research, and facilitates community voice in informing public policy.


id: cord-006253-9q7vm1ek
author: Parakh, Ankit
date: 2010-08-27
txt: ./txt/cord-006253-9q7vm1ek.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-006253-9q7vm1ek.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7100775/
doi: 10.1007/s12098-010-0168-0
summary:
  METHODS: The retrospective case study was conducted at the Pediatric ward and Pediatric Intensive Care Unit (PICU) dedicated to the children (aged 18 years or younger) with influenza-like illness (ILI) with positive laboratory test results for pandemic H1N1 by reverse-transcriptase polymerase-chain-reaction assay. This observational retrospective analysis describes our experience in children hospitalized with the pandemic Influenza A (H1N1) virus in a tertiary care hospital in North India. As per the directions of the Director General Health Services (DGHS), Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MOHFW), Government of India, a Screening Center, Pediatric ward and Pediatric Intensive Care Unit (PICU) dedicated to the children with influenza-like illness (ILI) aged 18 years or younger hospitalized was started at Kalawati Saran Children''s Hospital (KSCH), New Delhi, India (referral center for positive patients). Similar study from Argentina including a total of 251 hospitalized children with 2009 H1N1 influenza, 47 (19%) were admitted to a PICU, 42 (17%) required mechanical ventilation, and 13 (5%) died [6] .

title:
  Pediatric Hospitalizations Associated with 2009 Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1): An Experience from a Tertiary Care Center in North India

abstract:
  OBJECTIVES: To describe our experience in children hospitalized with the pandemic Influenza A (H1N1) from Northern India. METHODS: The retrospective case study was conducted at the Pediatric ward and Pediatric Intensive Care Unit (PICU) dedicated to the children (aged 18 years or younger) with influenza-like illness (ILI) with positive laboratory test results for pandemic H1N1 by reverse-transcriptase polymerase-chain-reaction assay. RESULTS: Between August 2009 and January 2010, a total of 100 children were hospitalized with suspected 2009 H1N1 influenza with Category “C” as described by the Government of India. Twenty five patients were positive for H1N1 and 9 for seasonal influenza A. The most common presentation (H1N1 positive) was with fever (100%), cough (100%), coryza (52%), respiratory distress (88%), vomiting (28%) and diarrhea (16%). One child presented with hypernatremic dehydration and seizures (Serum sodium 174 meq/l). Of the H1N1 positive hospitalized children, 7 (28%) had respiratory failure and required PICU admission, 4 (16%) required mechanical ventilation, and 3 (12%) died. The major radiological findings were bilateral pulmonary infiltrates and consolidation. All patients were treated with oral Oseltamivir suspension or capsule as per appropriate weigh band and supportive care as required. Two deaths were caused by refractory hypoxemia and one by refractory shock. CONCLUSIONS: The exact incidence of Pandemic 2009 H1N1 influenza on morbidity and mortality is difficult to calculate since only Category “C” patients were screened.


id: cord-006328-0tpj38vb
author: Dass Hazarika, Rashna
date: 2012-07-22
txt: ./txt/cord-006328-0tpj38vb.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-006328-0tpj38vb.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7101621/
doi: 10.1007/s12098-012-0855-0
summary:
  OBJECTIVES: To report an outbreak of invasive meningococcal disease from Meghalaya, in the north east India, from January 2008 through June 2009. Fever was the most common manifestation (100 %) followed by meningeal signs (78.2 %), headache (56.4 %), vomiting (53.6 %), shock (38.2 %), low Glasgow coma scale (GCS) (25.5 %), purpura and rashes (23.6 %), seizures (9.1 %), abdominal symptoms (4.5 %), irritability and excessive crying (4.5 %) and bulging anterior fontanalle (23 %) in those below 18 mo of age. from Delhi reported that 67 % children had meningococcal meningitis, 20 % had meningococcemia and 13 % had both with mortality of 4.5 %, 25 % and 69 %, respectively [12] . Although Pollard RB [21] has reported that deafness has not been a common complication of meningococcal meningitis in the antibiotic era, there was one case with bilateral sensorineural hearing defect in the present study.

title:
  Invasive Meningococcal Infection: Analysis of 110 cases from a Tertiary Care Centre in North East India

abstract:
  OBJECTIVES: To report an outbreak of invasive meningococcal disease from Meghalaya, in the north east India, from January 2008 through June 2009. METHODS: Retrospective review of case sheets was done. One hundred ten patients with invasive meningococcal disease were included for the study. RESULTS: Of the total patients, 61.8 % were boys and 38.2 % were girls (boy to girl ratio = 1.62:1). The average age of presentation was 8.48 ± 5.09 y. Meningococcal meningitis was seen in 61.8 % of cases, meningococcemia in 20 % and 18.2 % had both. Fever was the most common manifestation (100 %) followed by meningeal signs (78.2 %), headache (56.4 %), vomiting (53.6 %), shock (38.2 %), low Glasgow coma scale (GCS) (25.5 %), purpura and rashes (23.6 %), seizures (9.1 %), abdominal symptoms (4.5 %), irritability and excessive crying (4.5 %) and bulging anterior fontanalle (23 %) in those below 18 mo of age. Raised intracranial pressure (ICP) was the most common complication (28.2 %) followed by coagulopathy (16.4 %), hepatopathy (10 %), herpes labialis (9.1 %), syndrome of inappropriate ADH secretion (SIADH) (8 %), pneumonia (7 %), arthritis (6 %), purpura fulminans, respiratory failure, sixth nerve palsy and diabetes insipidus in 4.5 % each, subdural empyema, optic neuritis, ARDS and ARF in 1.8 % each, cerebral salt wasting syndrome, third nerve palsy, cerebritis and hearing impairment in 0.9 % each. Culture was positive in 35.5 %. Patients were treated initially with ceftriaxone and dexamethasone but later on with chloramphenicol due to clinical drug resistance. Mortality was 6.4 %. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first epidemic report of invasive meningococcal disease from the north east India. Chloramphenicol acts well in areas with penicillin or cephalosporin resistance. Mortality reduces significantly with early diagnosis and prompt intervention.


id: cord-009362-4ewemyny
title: Snippets
author: Chugh, Tulsi
date: 2016-02-06
txt: ./txt/cord-009362-4ewemyny.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-009362-4ewemyny.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7147206/
doi: 10.1016/j.cmrp.2016.01.006
abstract: nan
summary:
  Three different types of VDPVs are reported: (1) circulating VDPVs (cVDPVs) from outbreaks in low OPV coverage settings, All cVDPVs seen worldwide are identified and registered with WHO in Geneva. In addition, two VDPV isolates that escaped detection by screening assay by The Global Polio Laboratory Network have been reported from Mumbai, India. Malaria diagnosis in India is based primarily on microscopy of peripheral blood smears and rapid diagnostic tests, which cannot differentiate monoinfections from mixed infections. falciparum by microscopy were subjected to species-specific nested PCR (targeted 185 rRNA gene) and 265 (17.4%) of these were positive for mixed infections. Ciprofloxacin-resistant Shigella sonnei associated with travel to India Shigella spp. In India, severe outbreaks of dysentery with high mortality were caused by multidrug-resistant S. Later, it re-emerged with fluoroquinolone resistance and caused several dysentery outbreaks. sonnei have been reported in India. Ciprofloxacin-resistant Shigella sonnei associated with travel to India


id: cord-014462-11ggaqf1
author: nan
date: 2011-04-21
txt: ./txt/cord-014462-11ggaqf1.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-014462-11ggaqf1.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3639731/
doi: 10.1007/s13337-011-0027-2
abstract: nan
summary:
  Molecular diagnosis based on reverse transcription (RT)-PCR s.a. one step or nested PCR, nucleic acid sequence based amplification (NASBA), or real time RT-PCR, has gradually replaced the virus isolation method as the new standard for the detection of dengue virus in acute phase serum samples. Non-genetic methods of management of these diseases include quarantine measures, eradication of infected plants and weed hosts, crop rotation, use of certified virus-free seed or planting stock and use of pesticides to control insect vector populations implicated in transmission of viruses. The results of this study indicate that NS1 antigen based ELISA test can be an useful tool to detect the dengue virus infection in patients during the early acute phase of disease since appearance of IgM antibodies usually occur after fifth day of the infection. The studies showed high level of expression in case of constructed vector as compared to infected virus for the specific protein.

title:
  Abstracts of the Papers Presented in the XIX National Conference of Indian Virological Society, “Recent Trends in Viral Disease Problems and Management”, on 18–20 March, 2010, at S.V. University, Tirupati, Andhra Pradesh


id: cord-016557-f2mzwhrt
title: Agrochemical Poisoning
author: Aggrawal, Anil
date: 2006
txt: ./txt/cord-016557-f2mzwhrt.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-016557-f2mzwhrt.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7120889/
doi: 10.1007/978-1-59259-921-9_10
summary:
  Out of the 18 deaths caused by pesticides reported by the 2002 AAPCC annual report (15) , two were the result of paraquat poisoning. Teare (46) reported a case of paraquat poisoning (a 44-year-old man dying of suicidal ingestion of paraquat after 17 days of illness), with the left lung weighing 1980 g and the right lung weighing 1920 g. Metaldehyde is a popular molluscicide that can cause fatal poisoning; the 2002 AAPCC annual report (15) mentions as many as 199 cases of exposure to this agent. According to Harry (4) , accidental pesticide intoxications are mainly caused by ingestions of diluted fertilizers, low-concentration antivitamin K rodenticides, ant-killing products, or granules of molluscicides containing 5% metaldehyde, whereas voluntary intoxications are mostly by chloralose, strychnine, organophosphorus or organochlorine insecticides, concentrated antivitamin K products, and herbicides, such as paraquat, chlorophenoxy compounds, glyphosate, and chlorates.

abstract:
  A general increase in the use of chemicals in agriculture has brought about a concomitant increase in the incidence of agrochemical poisoning. Organophosphates are the most common agrochemical poisons followed closely by herbicides. Many agricultural poisons, such as parathion and paraquat are now mixed with a coloring agent such as indigocarmine to prevent their use criminally. In addition, paraquat is fortified with a “stenching” agent. Organo-chlorines have an entirely different mechanism of action. Whereas organophosphates have an anticholinesterase activity, organochlorines act on nerve cells interfering with the transmission of impulses through them. A kerosene-like smell also emanates from death due to organochlorines. The diagnosis lies in the chemical identification of organochlorines in the stomach contents or viscera. Organochlorines also resist putrefaction and can be detected long after death. Paraquat has been involved in suicidal, accidental, and homicidal poisonings. It is mildly corrosive and ulceration around lips and mouth is common in this poisoning. However, the hallmark of paraquat poisoning, especially when the victim has survived a few days, are the profound changes in lungs. Other agrochemicals such as algicides, aphicides, herbicide safeneres, fertilizers, and so on, are less commonly encountered. Governments in most countries have passed legislations to prevent accidental poisonings with these agents. The US government passed the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA) in 1962 and the Indian government passed The Insecticides Act in 1968. Among other things, these acts require manufacturers to use signal words on the labels of insecticides, so the public is warned of their toxicity and accompanying danger.


id: cord-018706-gykw2nvt
title: Emerging and Transboundary Animal Viral Diseases: Perspectives and Preparedness
author: Yadav, Mahendra Pal
date: 2020-02-23
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7123659/
doi: 10.1007/978-981-15-0402-0_1
abstract:
  The epidemics and pandemics of a few infectious diseases during the past couple of decades have accentuated the significance of emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) due to their influence on public health. Although Asia region has been identified as the epicentre of many EIDs and upcoming infections, several new pathogens have also emerged in the past in other parts of the world. Furthermore, the emergence of new viral diseases/infections, such as Rift Valley fever, West Nile fever, SARS coronavirus, Hendra virus, avian influenza A (H5N1), Nipah virus, Zika virus and swine influenza A (H1N1) virus, from time to time is a glaring example threatening adversely both animal and public health globally. Infectious diseases are dynamic and concerning due to their epidemiology and aetiological agents, which is manifested within a host, pathogen and environment continuum involving domestic animals, wildlife and human populations. The complex relationship among host populations and other environmental factors creates conditions for the emergence of diseases. The factors driving the emergence of different emerging infectious disease (EID) interfaces include global travel, urbanisation and biomedical manipulations for human EIDs; agricultural intensification for domestic animal EIDs; translocation for wildlife EIDs; human encroachment, ex situ contact and ecological manipulation for wildlife–human EIDs; encroachment, new introductions and ‘spill-over’ and ‘spill-back’; and technology and industry for domestic animal–human EIDs. The concepts of sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures and biosecurity have gained recognition globally in almost all the realms of human activities, including livestock health and production management. This chapter provides the experience gained in the control and management of a few important TADs and EIDs along with the successes, constraints, limitations and future research needs for developing better control approaches.


id: cord-021510-vobwdcpj
title: BUFFALO HUSBANDRY | Asia
author: Jainudeen, M.R.
date: 2004-11-28
txt: ./txt/cord-021510-vobwdcpj.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-021510-vobwdcpj.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7150070/
doi: 10.1016/b0-12-227235-8/00050-x
abstract: nan
summary:
  Domestic buffaloes in Asia are of two types: the swamp type for draught in the eastern half of Asia Contents Asia Mediterranean Region and the river type for milk in the western half of Asia (see Dairy Animals: Water Buffalo). Once a sadly neglected farm species, the river type buffalo currently produces about 55 million tonnes of milk annually from some of the world''s best buffalo breeds in India and Pakistan. In most smallholder farms, animals are hand-milked with the calf to stimulate milk letdown, whereas in big herds in India and Pakistan they are machinemilked as for cattle. Thermal stress may lead to higher calf mortality, lower milk yields and slow growth, and can depress signs of oestrus (see Stress, Heat, in Dairy Cattle: Effects on Mik Production and Composition; Effects on Reproduction). High milk-producing river buffaloes are as susceptible to metabolic disorders as dairy cows.


id: cord-021937-p9vqpazu
title: Immunization in the Asia-Pacific Region
author: Tsai, Theodore F.
date: 2017-07-17
txt: ./txt/cord-021937-p9vqpazu.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-021937-p9vqpazu.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7152242/
doi: 10.1016/b978-0-323-35761-6.00075-4
abstract: nan
summary:
  However, an increasing global integration is taking place, as multinational companies acquire Asian manufacturers (e.g., Sanofi-Aventis, France, acquired Shantha Biotechnics, India); Asian companies acquire or obtain technologies and distribution rights from European countries (e.g., inactivated polio vaccine by Serum Institute of India Ltd. acquiring Bilthoven Biologicals, Netherlands; Astellas, Japan, acquiring recombinant influenza hemagglutinin from Protein Sciences, U.S.; Thai Government Pharmaceutical Organization acquiring chimeric JE vaccine from Sanofi-Pasteur, France; and Biological Evans, India, acquiring JE vaccine from Intercell AG, Austria); and vaccine codevelopment is agreed between entities in developed and Asian countries (e.g., genetically modified, inactivated HIV vaccine codeveloped by Sumagen, Korea, and the University of Western Ontario, Canada; mycobacterial proteinAg85A candidate tuberculosis vaccine codeveloped by Tianjin CanSino Biotechnology, China, and McMaster University, Canada; universal influenza vaccine codeveloped by Xiamen Wantai and Sanofi-Pasteur, France; and novel pneumococcal conjugate vaccine codeveloped by SK Chemicals, Korea and Sanofi-Pasteur, France). The widely used first-generation inactivated suckling mouse brain (SMB)-derived vaccine is being replaced rapidly in economically disadvantaged countries by the Chinese developed and manufactured live attenuated or inactivated vaccine (SA14-14-2 strain) grown in primary baby hamster kidney (PHK) cells and in higher-income countries with Vero cell-derived inactivated vaccines (licensed in the United States, Australia, Canada, and Europe, as well as several Asian countries) or a replicating chimeric yellow fever-JE virus recombinant vaccine (manufactured in Thailand).


id: cord-025668-ibrzx2c4
title: Quality Infrastructure of India and Its Importance for Inclusive National Growth
author: Aswal, D. K.
date: 2020-05-30
txt: ./txt/cord-025668-ibrzx2c4.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-025668-ibrzx2c4.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7261038/
doi: 10.1007/s12647-020-00376-3
summary:
  QI in nutshell is a complete package for all-round growth of a nation as it: (1) contributes to the formulation of government policies and regulations for S&T, industrial development and competitive international trade; (2) supports enterprises for production of international competitive products and apprises them new trade standards; (3) assists S&T institutions for scientific discoveries and innovation through accurate and precise measurements; and (4) addresses the needs of the consumers in terms of quality products and services at par with international standards, food and health safety, environment and climate change, and efficient use of natural and human resources. NABL accreditation has advantage in terms of enhance business as major government ministries and regulators (e.g. BIS, legal metrology, Directorate General for Foreign Trade, Ministry of Drinking Water and Sanitation, Ministry of Health & Family Welfare, Food Safety and Standards Authority of India, etc.) have mandated NABL accreditation for all laboratories performing conformity assessment for their schemes.

abstract:
  In this feature article, the quality infrastructure (QI) of India is discussed. A national QI is comprised of internationally recognized metrology, standards and accreditation. The QI built on a technical hierarchy to ensure the accuracy and precision of measurements traceable to SI units, is basic enabling system for providing the conformity assessment (calibration and testing, certification and inspection). The QI is an invisible force that binds the four helices, namely government, university, S&T institutions, civil society & media and enterprises, which are responsible for the growth of economy and quality of life. The existing apex capabilities of National Physical Laboratory, India—the National Metrology Institute of the country, National Accreditation Board for Testing and Calibration Laboratories and the Bureau of Indian Standards, are described. The mechanisms of enhancing the individual capabilities of these QI institutions and to boost synergy amongst them are presented. The need of a robust QI facility by various stakeholders in the areas of implementation of regulations, industrial growth, international trade, food safety, environmental monitoring, sustainable energy, affordable health, attraction of foreign investments, etc. is highlighted.


id: cord-025948-6dsx7pey
author: Maitra, Arindam
date: 2020-06-04
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7269891/
doi: 10.1007/s12038-020-00046-1
title:
  Mutations in SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA identified in Eastern India: Possible implications for the ongoing outbreak in India and impact on viral structure and host susceptibility

abstract:
  Direct massively parallel sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 genome was undertaken from nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swab samples of infected individuals in Eastern India. Seven of the isolates belonged to the A2a clade, while one belonged to the B4 clade. Specific mutations, characteristic of the A2a clade, were also detected, which included the P323L in RNA-dependent RNA polymerase and D614G in the Spike glycoprotein. Further, our data revealed emergence of novel subclones harbouring nonsynonymous mutations, viz. G1124V in Spike (S) protein, R203K, and G204R in the nucleocapsid (N) protein. The N protein mutations reside in the SR-rich region involved in viral capsid formation and the S protein mutation is in the S(2) domain, which is involved in triggering viral fusion with the host cell membrane. Interesting correlation was observed between these mutations and travel or contact history of COVID-19 positive cases. Consequent alterations of miRNA binding and structure were also predicted for these mutations. More importantly, the possible implications of mutation D614G (in S(D) domain) and G1124V (in S(2) subunit) on the structural stability of S protein have also been discussed. Results report for the first time a bird’s eye view on the accumulation of mutations in SARS-CoV-2 genome in Eastern India. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s12038-020-00046-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.


id: cord-026990-d3l1sbeb
title: Economic menace of diabetes in India: a systematic review
author: Oberoi, Sumit
date: 2020-06-17
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url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7299136/
doi: 10.1007/s13410-020-00838-z
summary:
  Thus, the present study aims at capturing the evidence from the literature on the cost of diabetes mellitus in India, reviewing the materials and methods used to estimate the costs and, lastly, exploring future research area. Majority of research publications were excluded on the grounds if they (a) did not provide the detailed analysis of how costs were estimated; (b) were conference articles or posters; (c) only presented the costs of diabetes prevention; and (d) were published in non-peer-reviewed journals. (cost for patients with foot complication was ₹19,020/-, also average cost for renal patients Under the north zone, 8 studies were included to calculate both direct and indirect costs of diabetes at the individual/household level (Fig. 1) . Therefore, the findings of the present study suggest that per annum median direct and indirect cost of diabetes at the individual/household level is very colossal in India.

abstract:
  AIM: Diabetes mellitus is recognised as a major chronic pandemic disease that does not consider any ethnic and monetary background. There is a dearth of literature on the cost of diabetes in the Indian context. Therefore, the present study aims to capture the evidence from the literature on the cost of diabetes mellitus in India. METHODS: An extensive literature was reviewed from ACADEMIA, NCBI, PubMed, ProQuest, EBSCO, Springer, JSTOR, Scopus and Google Scholar. The eligibility criterion is based on ‘PICOS’ procedure, and only those studies which are available in the English language, published between 1999 and February 2019, indexed in ABDC, EBSCO, ProQuest, Scopus and peer-reviewed journals are included. RESULTS: A total of thirty-two studies were included in the present study. The result indicates that the median direct cost of diabetes was estimated to be ₹18,890/- p.a. for the north zone, ₹10,585/- p.a. for the south zone, ₹45,792/- p.a. for the north-east zone and ₹8822/- p.a. for the west zone. Similarly, the median indirect cost of diabetes was ₹18,146/- p.a. for the north zone, ₹1198/- p.a. for the south zone, ₹18,707/- p.a. for the north-east and ₹3949/- p.a. for the west zone. CONCLUSION: The present study highlighted that diabetes poses a high economic burden on individuals/households. The study directed the need to arrange awareness campaign regarding diabetes and associated risk factors in order to minimise the burden of diabetes. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s13410-020-00838-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.


id: cord-027753-cr73br4t
title: Policing During the Time of Corona: The Indian Context
author: Biswas, Debajyoti
date: 2020-05-31
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url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7313775/
doi: 10.1093/police/paaa024
summary:
  According to Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker, India has the most stringent lockdown as compared to other nations and has scored 100% in the scale; nevertheless, there had been sporadic incidence of attacks on police personnel and medical workers in different parts of India. 1,2 Despite enforcing such stringent, lockdown from the midnight of 24 March to 14 April 2020 (a period of 21 days), there have been sporadic incidence of attacks on police personnel and medical workers in different parts of India. There are some states in India where the lockdown had been effective because of the proper coordination of the administration, the police, the community and religious leaders, social organizations, and the people. (accessed 12 April 2020) 35 https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/nsa-to-be-slapped-against-persons-who-attack-police men-enforcing-coronavirus-lockdown-in-up/articleshow/74962374.cms?from¼mdr. Apart from the role played by the religious leaders, the role of the police has also helped in trustbuilding measures among the people in India.

abstract:
  According to Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker, India has the most stringent lockdown as compared to other nations and has scored 100% in the scale; nevertheless, there had been sporadic incidence of attacks on police personnel and medical workers in different parts of India. This article argues that such resistance comes from two broad factors: (i) a collective scepticism that has built up among certain section of people and (ii) a tool of defiance against the government. In order to quell such resistance, community leaders and the police can play a very crucial role. In order to establish the above hypotheses, a quantitative approach of the events that have occurred in India during the lockdown period of 21 days shall be considered.


id: cord-027757-zb4wxt85
title: The Influenza Epidemic of 1918 and the Adivasis of Western India
author: Hardiman, David
date: 2012-03-09
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url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7313811/
doi: 10.1093/shm/hks015
summary:
  17 In her study of the epidemic in Bombay Presidency, Ramanna describes the way that the disease spread rapidly through western India in 1918, and the measures adopted by colonial medical officials to try to contain it-largely without success. Before examining the epidemic in this adivasi region, I shall say something about the nature of the epidemic, how it was understood and treated at the time, and look briefly at a well-documented case in which indigenous people were severely hit by the pandemic-that of the Inuit in Alaska-to help to draw out some lessons about the response to the crisis more widely. 37 The particularly high mortality rates from influenza suffered by indigenous and aboriginal peoples throughout the world in 1918 has been brought out in a number of studies. 59 Because their health was generally poor, the South Gujarat adivasis suffered particularly badly in epidemics.

abstract:
  The influenza epidemic of 1918 was the single worst outbreak of this disease known in history. This article examines an area of western India that was affected very badly—that of a tract inhabited by impoverished indigenous peoples, who are known in India as adivasis. The reasons for this are discussed. Some oral accounts help to bring out the enduring memory of that terrible time. The general health of the adivasis and the existing medical facilities in this area are examined. Attempts to check and treat the disease by the colonial government and its doctors, as well as missionary doctors and other non-governmental agencies, are considered to see why they had so little overall impact. Some comparisons are made with the fate of indigenous people in other parts of the world during the epidemic, in particular with the Inuits of Alaska.


id: cord-029527-6vhhi54g
title: COVID-19 Pandemic and City-Level Nitrogen Dioxide (NO(2)) Reduction for Urban Centres of India
author: Siddiqui, Asfa
date: 2020-07-22
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url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7374949/
doi: 10.1007/s12524-020-01130-7
summary:
  The present research focuses on analysing the gaseous pollution scenarios, before and during lockdown through satellite (Sentinel-5P data sets) and ground-based measurements (Central Pollution Control Board''s Air Quality Index, AQI) for 8 five-million plus cities in India (Delhi, Ahmedabad, Kolkata, Mumbai, Hyderabad, Chennai, Bengaluru and Pune). The respiratory illness symptoms and mortality due to prolonged exposure to gaseous pollutants like nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), sulphur dioxide (SO 2 ), particulate matter (PM), carbon monoxide (CO), etc., have been reported earlier in India and around the world in several studies (Abbey et al. The objective of this research was to analyse the effect of lockdown on improving the levels of air pollution in various cities across India using satellite-derived spatiotemporal data sets and ground-based measurements. Additionally, to understand the effect of long term exposure of NO 2 on human health, COVID-19 positive cases and number of deaths was obtained for all districts around the country of India as on 18 May 2020.

abstract:
  Air pollution poses a grave health risk and is a matter of concern for researchers around the globe. Toxic pollutants like nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)) is a result of industrial and transport sector emissions and need to be analysed at the current scenario. After the world realised the effect of COVID-19 pandemic, countries around the globe proposed complete lockdown to contain the spread. The present research focuses on analysing the gaseous pollution scenarios, before and during lockdown through satellite (Sentinel-5P data sets) and ground-based measurements (Central Pollution Control Board’s Air Quality Index, AQI) for 8 five-million plus cities in India (Delhi, Ahmedabad, Kolkata, Mumbai, Hyderabad, Chennai, Bengaluru and Pune). The long-term exposure to NO(2) was also linked to pandemic-related mortality cases across the country. An average of 46% reduction in average NO(2) values and 27% improvement in AQI was observed in the eight cities during the first lockdown phase with respect to pre-lockdown phase. Also, 53% of Corona positive cases and 61% of fatality cases were observed in the eight major cities of the country alone, coinciding with locations having high long-term NO(2) exposure.


id: cord-029853-jv0mscom
title: Malaria Elimination in India: Bridging the Gap Between Control and Elimination
author: Nema, Shrikant
date: 2020-07-29
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url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7387259/
doi: 10.1007/s13312-020-1888-5
summary:
  India observed a significant reduction in malaria cases in the previous year, reaffirming our trust and efficiency of the existing tools to achieve malaria elimination. World health organization (WHO) has developed the Global technical strategy for malaria under the National framework for malaria elimination in India 2016-2030 to eliminate malaria (zero indigenous cases) throughout the entire country by 2030, and maintain malaria-free status and prevent its re-introduction. National Malaria Program has distributed about 50 million Long Lasting Insecticidal nets (LLINs) to communities during 2016-2018 in India [4] as an intervention tool for malaria control and prevention to cover the 126 million populations that were under risk [3] . Plasmodium falciparum glutamate dehydrogenase is genetically conserved across eight malaria endemic states of India: Exploring new avenues of malaria elimination Protective efficacy of interventions for preventing malaria mortality in children in Plasmodium falciparum endemic areas

abstract:
  India observed a significant reduction in malaria cases in the previous year, reaffirming our trust and efficiency of the existing tools to achieve malaria elimination. On 25 April, 2019, countries around the world marked World Malaria Day under the theme “Zero malaria starts with me”. This provides an opportunity to rejoice the success and re-evaluate ongoing challenges in the fight against this preventable and treatable parasitic disease. We highlight the potential gaps in the malaria elimination program, and underscore potential solutions and strategies to implement, improve and intensify the success of the national goal of malaria elimination by 2030.


id: cord-030228-mx9ycsvo
title: Return from COVID-19: Thinking Differently About Export Competitiveness and Sustainability
author: Momaya, Kirankumar S.
date: 2020-08-09
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url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7415196/
doi: 10.1007/s42943-020-00012-6
summary:
  The classical method of situation-actor-process—learning-action-performance (SAP-LAP) is adapted for the context of an experimental bottom-up micro-pilot to ''Return from COVID-19''. Paradigms such as industrial organization (IO) and the Porter Diamond (Porter 1990) will remain popular, but may be of limited use to address the survival crisis of competitiveness being faced by a large number of start-ups, micro-, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs), ventures and even focal firms (Momaya 2016) . The sustainability dimension of competitiveness is also important, but may need to wait a bit, as return from COVID-19 has become the first priority for most governments, industry associations, firms and even institutes. SAP-LAP is a very useful holistic framework that has been evolving through applications in diverse contexts, including one related to technology management and competitiveness (e.g. Sahoo et al. This section gives a glimpse of extending a popular approach, situation-actors-processes-learning-action-performance (SAP-LAP, Sushil 2001) by applying it to a challenging context of crisis.

abstract:
  Times are really tough for millions across the world, and more so for poor populations in emerging countries, due to the strategic discontinuity called COVID-19. This perspective editorial urges to think differently in addressing issues such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Starting from an analogy of ‘signals from nature’, it gives a brief background about the relationship between competitiveness and sustainability. The classical method of situation-actor-process—learning-action-performance (SAP-LAP) is adapted for the context of an experimental bottom-up micro-pilot to ‘Return from COVID-19’. Glimpses of emerging findings from the pilot project in the context of academic institutions are shared. Topics for urgent and mid-term studies in the given context are listed, focusing on implications for the rebound of export activity. We will discuss ways for leaders to enhance export competitiveness despite COVID-19. This article contributes to the literature by extending SAP-LAP in an alternative micro-situation for an optimistic scenario.


id: cord-030870-ao5p3ra3
author: Paul, Suman
date: 2020-08-25
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7445076/
doi: 10.1007/s41324-020-00354-6
title:
  Dynamics and risk assessment of SARS-CoV-2 in urban areas: a geographical assessment on Kolkata Municipal Corporation, India

abstract:
  SARS-CoV-2 has been transmitted and outbreak took place in India during the last week before nationwide 1st lockdown took place. Urban areas found more vulnerable and reported nearly 65% of cases during every phase of lockdown. Mumbai, among four metropolitan cities found huge number of containment zones with nearly 30% of SARS-CoV-2 cases indicating clustering of cases. Most of the containment zones of SARS-CoV-2 cases in Kolkata Municipal Corporation found a significant relation with slum areas. The study primarily tries considering the nature of SARS-CoV-2 cases in different urban centres with the help of cartographic techniques. AHP method has been used to determine the factors responsible for such concentration of SARS-CoV-2 cases with vulnerability assessment (exposure, sensitivity and resilience) and risks. Before nationwide lockdown starts, the share of urban centres found 25% which has been transformed into nearly 60% at the end of 3(rd) phase of lockdown. Growth rate of SARS-CoV-2 cases found very high for Chennai and Thane with less number of doubling time to nation. Slum concentration and containment density shows a higher degree of correlation in Kolkata Municipal Corporation. Risk map also shows the concentration of cases in central and north Kolkata with higher degree of diseases exposure and sensitivity. Control measures must be taken by the central and state Government to minimise the transmission rate of SARS-CoV-2 mainly urban areas. As urban area contributing a higher share of SARS-CoV-2 cases, a proper management plan must be enforce. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s41324-020-00354-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.


id: cord-031460-nrxtfl3i
title: Modeling and Forecasting of COVID-19 Growth Curve in India
author: Sharma, Vikas Kumar
date: 2020-09-05
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url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7474330/
doi: 10.1007/s41403-020-00165-z
summary:
  In this article, we analyze the growth pattern of COVID-19 pandemic in India from March 4 to July 11 using regression analysis (exponential and polynomial), auto-regressive integrated moving averages (ARIMA) model as well as exponential smoothing and Holt–Winters models. Further, we search the best-fitting ARIMA model for the data using the AIC (Akaike Information Criterion) and provide the forecast of COVID-19 cases for future days. Ceylan (2020) suggested the use of Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to develop and predict the epidemiological trend of COVID-19 for better allocation of resources and proper containment of the virus in Italy, Spain and France. In this article, we first study the growth curve using regression methods (exponential, linear and polynomial etc.) and propose an optimal model for fitting the cases till July 10. In order to find the optimal value of µ, i.e. the turning point between the exponential and polynomial growth, we will use the technique of minimizing the residual sum squares in "Analysis of COVID-19 Cases in India".

abstract:
  In this article, we analyze the growth pattern of COVID-19 pandemic in India from March 4 to July 11 using regression analysis (exponential and polynomial), auto-regressive integrated moving averages (ARIMA) model as well as exponential smoothing and Holt–Winters models. We found that the growth of COVID-19 cases follows a power regime of [Formula: see text] after the exponential growth. We found the optimal change points from where the COVID-19 cases shifted their course of growth from exponential to quadratic and then from quadratic to linear. After that, we saw a sudden spike in the course of the spread of COVID-19 and the growth moved from linear to quadratic and then to quartic, which is alarming. We have also found the best fitted regression models using the various criteria, such as significant p-values, coefficients of determination and ANOVA, etc. Further, we search the best-fitting ARIMA model for the data using the AIC (Akaike Information Criterion) and provide the forecast of COVID-19 cases for future days. We also use usual exponential smoothing and Holt–Winters models for forecasting purpose. We further found that the ARIMA (5, 2, 5) model is the best-fitting model for COVID-19 cases in India.


id: cord-031461-r9lv43us
title: Evolution of COVID-19 Pandemic in India
author: Asad, Ali
date: 2020-09-05
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url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7474332/
doi: 10.1007/s41403-020-00166-y
summary:
  Towards this objective, we study and analyze the temporal growth pattern of COVID-19 infection and death counts in various states of India. Our analysis up to August 4, 2020, shows that several states (namely Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal) have reached [Formula: see text] power-law growth, while Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh exhibit linear growth. In this paper, we analyze the COVID-19 infection and death counts in nineteen Indian states: Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Delhi, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, West Bengal, Karnataka, Bihar, and Kerela. The infection curves of Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, and West Bengal, as well as the combined NE-states, exhibit a t 3 regime followed by a t 2 phase. These states observed a gradual growth in daily cases as their I(t) curves pass through the power-law regime. In this paper, we analyzed the cumulative infection and death counts of the COVID-19 epidemic in the worstaffected states of India.

abstract:
  A mathematical analysis of patterns for the evolution of COVID-19 cases is key to the development of reliable and robust predictive models potentially leading to efficient and effective governance against COVID-19. Towards this objective, we study and analyze the temporal growth pattern of COVID-19 infection and death counts in various states of India. Our analysis up to August 4, 2020, shows that several states (namely Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal) have reached [Formula: see text] power-law growth, while Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh exhibit linear growth. Delhi has reached [Formula: see text] phase and may flatten in the coming days. However, some states have deviated from the universal pattern of the epidemic curve. Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan show a gradual rise in the power-law regime, which is not the usual trend. Also, Bihar, Karnataka, and Kerala are exhibiting a second wave. In addition, we report that initially, the death counts show similar behavior as the infection counts. Later, however, the death growth rate declines as compared to the infection growth due to better handling of critical cases and increased immunity of the population. These observations indicate that except Delhi, most of the Indian states are far from flattening their epidemic curves.


id: cord-031702-jik4116j
title: Sustainability of airlines in India with Covid-19: Challenges ahead and possible way-outs
author: Agrawal, Anshu
date: 2020-09-10
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url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7481765/
doi: 10.1057/s41272-020-00257-z
summary:
  Fragile to withstand the cyclic momentary shocks of oil price fluctuation, demand flux, declining currency, airlines in India warrants for robust structural changes in their operating strategies, business model, revenue and pricing strategies to survive the long-lasting consequences of Covid-19. According to ICAO united Aviation study, depending upon the duration and intensity of outbreak, control measures and economic and psychological impact, the global Pink cells portray risky zone and green cells represent safe zone as per Altman Z-score airlines industry may witness decline of 33 to 60% seats offered, reduced passenger traffic from 1878 to 3227 million and gross operating revenue loss of approximately USD 244 to 420 million for the year 2020. Table 5 exhibits the degree of operating leverage of four airlines in India and the consequences on the EBITDA of the airlines, with the different expectations of possible decline in sales amid covid impact.

abstract:
  Coronavirus outbreak has been highly disruptive for aviation sector, threatening the survival and sustainability of airlines. Apart from massive losses attributed to suspended operations, industry foresee a grim recession ahead. Restrictive movements, weak tourism, curtailed income, compressed commercial activities and fear psychosis are expected to compress the passenger demand from 30 to 60%, endangering the commercial viability of airlines operation. Fragile to withstand the cyclic momentary shocks of oil price fluctuation, demand flux, declining currency, airlines in India warrants for robust structural changes in their operating strategies, business model, revenue and pricing strategies to survive the long-lasting consequences of Covid-19. Paper attempts to analyze impact of lockdown and covid crisis on airlines in India and possible challenges ahead. Study also suggests the possible way-out for mitigating the expected losses.


id: cord-031984-kcs6oukj
title: Estimating the Impact of Daily Weather on the Temporal Pattern of COVID-19 Outbreak in India
author: Gupta, Amitesh
date: 2020-09-17
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url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7494434/
doi: 10.1007/s41748-020-00179-1
summary:
  Daily maximum (T(Max)), minimum (T(Min)), mean (T(Mean)) and dew point temperature (T(Dew)), wind speed (WS), relative humidity, and diurnal range in temperature and relative humidity during March 01 to June 04, 2020 over 9 major affected cities are analyzed to look into the impact of daily weather on COVID-19 infections on that day and 7, 10, 12, 14, 16 days before those cases were detected (i.e., on the likely transmission days). Since all the selected cities are located in different bio-climatic zones having different temperature characteristics (Gupta 2017) , the variations in meteorological observations will also help to identify how spatially varying weather conditions influence the pattern of COVID-19 transmission in India. Unlike most studies, the present study investigated the impact of various weather parameters which include maximum, minimum, mean, and dew point temperature, temperature range, average humidity, humidity range and wind speed on the same day, as well as with time-lags of 7, 10, 12, 14, and 16 days prior to detection of the confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the Indian context.

abstract:
  The COVID-19 pandemic has spread obstreperously in India. The increase in daily confirmed cases accelerated significantly from ~ 5 additional new cases (ANC)/day during early March up to ~ 249 ANC/day during early June. An abrupt change in this temporal pattern was noticed during mid-April, from which can be inferred a much reduced impact of the nationwide lockdown in India. Daily maximum (T(Max)), minimum (T(Min)), mean (T(Mean)) and dew point temperature (T(Dew)), wind speed (WS), relative humidity, and diurnal range in temperature and relative humidity during March 01 to June 04, 2020 over 9 major affected cities are analyzed to look into the impact of daily weather on COVID-19 infections on that day and 7, 10, 12, 14, 16 days before those cases were detected (i.e., on the likely transmission days). Spearman’s correlation exhibits significantly lower association with WS, T(Max), T(Min), T(Mean), T(Dew), but is comparatively better with a lag of 14 days. Support Vector regression successfully estimated the count of confirmed cases (R(2) > 0.8) at a lag of 12–16 days, thus reflecting a probable incubation period of 14 ± 02 days in India. Approximately 75% of total cases were registered when T(Max), T(Mean), T(Min), T(Dew), and WS at 12–16 days previously were varying within the range of 33.6–41.3 °C, 29.8–36.5 °C, 24.8–30.4 °C, 18.7–23.6 °C, and 4.2–5.75 m/s, respectively. Thus, we conclude that coronavirus transmission is not well correlated (linearly) with any individual weather parameter; rather, transmission is susceptible to a certain weather pattern. Hence multivariate non-linear approach must be employed instead.


id: cord-033817-hxxa299y
author: Nichols, Carly E.
date: 2020-07-17
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url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7562781/
doi: 10.1017/s1743923x20000483
summary:
  Drawing on qualitative inquiry in agrarian north India and Nepal, this research note analyzes how South Asian COVID-19 lockdowns have affected women''s labor responsibilities in sometimes surprising ways. We conclude that more research is needed to examine the nuanced aspects of COVID-19''s gendered labor impacts to create comprehensive policy responses to address the multiple and sometimes conflicting effects the lockdown has had on agrarian women''s informal labor and well-being. 2018) In this research note, we draw on qualitative data collected in Nepal and the Indian state of Himachal Pradesh (HP) to explore the complex impacts that COVID-19 and lockdown policies are having on women''s labor roles within the context of agrarian distress. Scholars have found that rural parents in India often sustain their own hope for THE GENDERED IMPACTS OF COVID-19 AMID AGRARIAN DISTRESS the future through investing in children''s education (Jakimow 2016) .

title:
  The Gendered Impacts of COVID-19 amid Agrarian Distress: Opportunities for Comprehensive Policy Response in Agrarian South Asia

abstract:
  COVID-19 and its associated disease control measures have greatly altered everyday life. The burden of these challenges has fallen disproportionately on women. Drawing on qualitative inquiry in agrarian north India and Nepal, this research note analyzes how South Asian COVID-19 lockdowns have affected women's labor responsibilities in sometimes surprising ways. We find increased responsibilities for caregiving within the household, substantial stress in responding to food insecurity, and growing expectations to fulfill public roles in disease response measures. However, we also find that the return of male migrants and youth has, in some cases, reduced women's farming responsibilities and created opportunities for household togetherness at a time of great uncertainty. We conclude that more research is needed to examine the nuanced aspects of COVID-19's gendered labor impacts to create comprehensive policy responses to address the multiple and sometimes conflicting effects the lockdown has had on agrarian women's informal labor and well-being.


id: cord-033959-wp0z5lok
author: Kannan, K. P.
date: 2020-10-19
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7571534/
doi: 10.1007/s41027-020-00280-z
title:
  Revisiting Kerala’s Gulf Connection: Half a Century of Emigration, Remittances and Their Macroeconomic Impact, 1972–2020

abstract:
  In the literature on development studies, the state of Kerala in India is known for its high human and social development despite its low-income status. However, there has been a turnaround in its growth performance and has now come to occupy a high rank in terms of per capita income among Indian States. This has been largely through a high growth performance facilitated by significant remittances from abroad. However, there have not been consistent time-series data on annual remittances. This paper is an attempt to fulfil this gap by estimating foreign remittances to Kerala for a period of 47 years that is close to half a century. Using these data, the paper has presented a Modified State Income for Kerala and calculated its impact on consumption and savings. The significance of the sizeable emigration to the labour market situation has also been highlighted. Given the fact that remittances come as household income confined to a small segment of the total households, the impact of annual remittances on income and consumption inequality has also been highlighted. The results show an increasing trend in inequality. Despite a high growth performance aided by remittances, Kerala has not been able to address its longstanding problem of educated unemployment, especially for its women. In this context, the state’s inability to take advantage of the enhanced per capita income to maintain its tax–income ratio, let alone enhance it, assumes great significance as an area of concern.


id: cord-034181-ji4empe6
title: Forecasting COVID-19 outbreak progression using hybrid polynomial-Bayesian ridge regression model
author: Saqib, Mohd
date: 2020-10-23
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7581693/
doi: 10.1007/s10489-020-01942-7
abstract:
  In 2020, Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the SARS-CoV-2 (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Corona Virus 2) Coronavirus, unforeseen pandemic put humanity at big risk and health professionals are facing several kinds of problem due to rapid growth of confirmed cases. That is why some prediction methods are required to estimate the magnitude of infected cases and masses of studies on distinct methods of forecasting are represented so far. In this study, we proposed a hybrid machine learning model that is not only predicted with good accuracy but also takes care of uncertainty of predictions. The model is formulated using Bayesian Ridge Regression hybridized with an n-degree Polynomial and uses probabilistic distribution to estimate the value of the dependent variable instead of using traditional methods. This is a completely mathematical model in which we have successfully incorporated with prior knowledge and posterior distribution enables us to incorporate more upcoming data without storing previous data. Also, L(2) (Ridge) Regularization is used to overcome the problem of overfitting. To justify our results, we have presented case studies of three countries, −the United States, Italy, and Spain. In each of the cases, we fitted the model and estimate the number of possible causes for the upcoming weeks. Our forecast in this study is based on the public datasets provided by John Hopkins University available until 11th May 2020. We are concluding with further evolution and scope of the proposed model.


id: cord-035113-bhnv2qbi
title: A novel framework for COVID-19 case prediction through piecewise regression in India
author: Senapati, Apurbalal
date: 2020-11-10
txt: ./txt/cord-035113-bhnv2qbi.txt
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extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7652706/
doi: 10.1007/s41870-020-00552-3
summary:
  The linear regression model has been fitted into the dataset to deal with the total number of positive cases, and the number of recoveries for different states in India such as Maharashtra, West Bengal, Kerala, Delhi and Assam. Different types of COVID-19 related issues has been addressed in this study, with the help of the piecewise regression Model, such as total number of positive cases, and the number of recoveries for different states in India such as Maharashtra, West Bengal, Kerala, Delhi and Assam. In this section, we have discussed in details of our proposed scheme based linear regression model for prediction of the number of total confirmed cases, active positive cases, and recoveries. In this study, we have proposed the piecewise linear regression based machine learning approach for the prediction of actual positive cases and recovery cases of five different states in India.

abstract:
  Outbreak of COVID-19, created a disastrous situation in more than 200 countries around the world. Thus the prediction of the future trend of the disease in different countries can be useful for managing the outbreak. Several data driven works have been done for the prediction of COVID-19 cases and these data uses features of past data for future prediction. In this study the machine learning (ML)-guided linear regression model has been used to address the different types of COVID-19 related issues. The linear regression model has been fitted into the dataset to deal with the total number of positive cases, and the number of recoveries for different states in India such as Maharashtra, West Bengal, Kerala, Delhi and Assam. From the current analysis of COVID-19 data it has been observed that trend of per day number of infection follows linearly and then increases exponentially. This property has been incorporated into our prediction and the piecewise linear regression is the best suited model to adopt this property. The experimental results shows the superiority of the proposed scheme and to the best of our knowledge this is a new approach towards the prediction of COVID-19.


id: cord-117778-8c4g4hqx
title: Prediction of COVID-19 Disease Progression in India : Under the Effect of National Lockdown
author: Das, Sourish
date: 2020-04-07
url: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.03147v1.pdf
doi: nan
abstract:
  In this policy paper, we implement the epidemiological SIR to estimate the basic reproduction number $mathcal{R}_0$ at national and state level. We also developed the statistical machine learning model to predict the cases ahead of time. Our analysis indicates that the situation of Punjab ($mathcal{R}_0approx 16$) is not good. It requires immediate aggressive attention. We see the $mathcal{R}_0$ for Madhya Pradesh (3.37) , Maharastra (3.25) and Tamil Nadu (3.09) are more than 3. The $mathcal{R}_0$ of Andhra Pradesh (2.96), Delhi (2.82) and West Bengal (2.77) is more than the India's $mathcal{R}_0=2.75$, as of 04 March, 2020. India's $mathcal{R}_0=2.75$ (as of 04 March, 2020) is very much comparable to Hubei/China at the early disease progression stage. Our analysis indicates that the early disease progression of India is that of similar to China. Therefore, with lockdown in place, India should expect as many as cases if not more like China. If lockdown works, we should expect less than 66,224 cases by May 01,2020. All data and texttt{R} code for this paper is available from url{https://github.com/sourish-cmi/Covid19}


id: cord-131975-9z3skg4n
title: Impact of intervention on the spread of COVID-19 in India: A model based study
author: Senapati, Abhishek
date: 2020-04-10
url: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.04950v1.pdf
doi: nan
abstract:
  The outbreak of corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the virus severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has already created emergency situations in almost every country of the world. The disease spreads all over the world within a very short period of time after its first identification in Wuhan, China in December, 2019. In India, the outbreaks starts on $2^{nd}$ March, 2020 and after that the cases are increasing exponentially. Very high population density, the unavailability of specific medicines or vaccines, insufficient evidences regarding the transmission mechanism of the disease also make it difficult to fight against the disease properly in India. Mathematical models have been used to predict the disease dynamics and also to assess the efficiency of the intervention strategies in reducing the disease burden. In this work, we propose a mathematical model to describe the disease transmission mechanism between the individuals. We consider the initial phase of the outbreak situation in India and our proposed model is fitted to the daily cumulative new reported cases during the period $2^{nd}$ March, 2020 to $24^{th}$ March, 2020. We estimate the basic reproduction number $(R_0)$, effective reproduction number (R(t)) and epidemic doubling time from the incidence data for the above-mentioned period. We further assess the effect of preventive measures such as spread of awareness, lock-down, proper hand sanitization, etc. in reducing the new cases. Two intervention scenarios are considered depending on the variability of the intervention strength over the period of implementation. Our study suggests that higher intervention effort is required to control the disease outbreak within a shorter period of time in India. Moreover, our analysis reveals that the strength of the intervention should be strengthened over the time to eradicate the disease effectively.


id: cord-138978-hfmgc5ve
author: Venigalla, Akhila Sri Manasa
date: 2020-05-06
txt: ./txt/cord-138978-hfmgc5ve.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-138978-hfmgc5ve.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.02955v1.pdf
doi: nan
summary:
  The tweets posted on twitter related to Covid-19 are analysed and classified into one of the seven categories that include six emotions -Anger, Sadness, Happiness, Surprise, Fear and Disgust [Ekman (1992) ], and Neutral category, which are visualized on India Map based on the location from which the tweets have been posted. When the portal is visited on any specific day, emotions of the country from 14 March,2020 to the present day are loaded by default based on twitter data during the range, as shown in Figure 2 Table 2 depicts the number of tweets classified into each of the seven categories, for every state and union territory of India, along with Covid-19 statistics in the corresponding regions during March 14, 2020 to May 6, 2020. Considering the importance of understanding public emotions and the affects on psychological state of people during a crisis, in this paper, we present a web portal to identify the mood of India during the current Covid-19 pandemic.

title:
  Mood of India During Covid-19 -- An Interactive Web Portal Based on Emotion Analysis of Twitter Data

abstract:
  The severe outbreak of Covid-19 pandemic has affected many countries across the world, and disrupted the day to day activities of many people. During such outbreaks, understanding the emotional state of citizens of a country could be of interest to various organizations to carry out tasks and to take necessary measures. Several studies have been performed on data available on various social media platforms and websites to understand the emotions of people against many events, inclusive of Covid-19, across the world. Twitter and other social media platforms have been bridging the gap between the citizens and government in various countries and are of more prominence in India. Sentiment Analysis of posts on twitter is observed to accurately reveal the sentiments. Analysing real time posts on twitter in India during Covid-19, could help in identifying the mood of the nation. However, most of the existing studies related to Covid-19, on twitter and other social media platforms are performed on data posted during a specific interval. We are not aware of any research that identifies emotional state of India on a daily basis. Hence, we present a web portal that aims to display mood of India during Covid-19, based on real time twitter data. This portal also enables users to select date range, specific date and state in India to display mood of people belonging to the specified region, on the specified date or during the specified date range. Also, the number of Covid-19 cases and mood of people at specific cities and states on specific dates is visualized on the country map. As of May 6 2020, the web portal has about 194370 tweets, and each of these tweets are classified into seven categories that include six basic emotions and a neutral category. A list of Trigger Events are also specified, to allow users to view the mood of India on specific events happening in the country during Covid-19.


id: cord-139097-deuvq0wf
title: Network structure of COVID-19 spread and the lacuna in India''s testing strategy
author: Sahasranaman, Anand
date: 2020-03-21
txt: ./txt/cord-139097-deuvq0wf.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-139097-deuvq0wf.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.09715v1.pdf
doi: nan
summary:
  We characterize the network of COVID-19 spread in India and find that the transmission rate is 0.43, with daily case growth driven by individuals who contracted the virus abroad. Given this bias in testing, it should be no surprise that among the observed cases of COVID-19 in the country, a majority are travellers from high-risk countries and their immediate contacts with local transmission (as reflected in the networks structure of infections, Fig. 2b ). Consolidated data from ICMR tells us that India has so far tested a total of 13,486 samples [35] , or 10 tests people per million population, which is very low compared to other countries that have been testing for community spread [36] , and creates the risk of missing such transmission in case it is already underway in the country. Coronavirus update: 3 more test positive for COVID-19 in Maharashtra, number rises to 5

abstract:
  We characterize the network of COVID-19 spread in India and find that the transmission rate is 0.43, with daily case growth driven by individuals who contracted the virus abroad. We explore the question of whether this represents exponentially decaying dynamics or is simply an artefact of India's testing strategy. Testing has largely been limited to individuals travelling from high-risk countries and their immediate contacts, meaning that the network reflects positive identifications from a biased testing sample. Given generally low levels of testing and an almost complete absence of testing for community spread, there is significant risk that we may be missing out on the actual nature of outbreak. India still has an apparently low current caseload, with possibly a small window of time to act, and should therefore aggressively and systematically expand random testing for community spread, including for asymptomatic cases. This will help understand true transmission characteristics and plan appropriately for the immediate future.


id: cord-143246-f97v2cih
title: Multifaceted COVID-19 Outbreak
author: Paul, Aneesh Mathews
date: 2020-08-26
txt: ./txt/cord-143246-f97v2cih.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-143246-f97v2cih.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2008.12127v1.pdf
doi: nan
summary:
  The time when everyone is struggling in the cruel hands of COVID19, we present the holistic view on the effects of this pandemic in certain aspects of life. Suicide rate has increased during the pandemic time [32] , [33] .The situation of COVID-19 has diverse effects in India [34] . Section II highlights the overall change in the education system during the COVID-19 season, and discusses the social and psychological impacts of the pandemic. Online learning is a new strategy embraced by the education system in this time of pandemic. We see a lot of unprecedented collaborative work globally among the educators [40] during this pandemic leading to a loss in the travel economy. The pandemic spread in various countries was sparked by religious gatherings as shown in Fig. 12 Religion and politics are a crucial part of life and COVID-19 has acquainted the human life without these jargon words. Online Learning during the COVID-19 Pandemic

abstract:
  The time when everyone is struggling in the cruel hands of COVID19, we present the holistic view on the effects of this pandemic in certain aspects of life. A lot of literature exists in COVID-19, but most of them talk about the social and psychological side of the COVID problems. COVID-19 has affected our day-to-day life and its effects are extensive. Most of the literature presents the adverse effect of the pandemic, but there are very few state-of-the-art approaches that discuss its beneficial effects. We see the multiple faces of the pandemic in this paper. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first review that presents the pros and cons of the pandemic. We present a survey that surrounds over effects on education, environment, and religion. The positive side of COVID-19 raises an alarm for us to wake up and work in that direction.


id: cord-164516-qp7k5fz9
author: Goswamy, Tushar
date: 2020-07-30
txt: ./txt/cord-164516-qp7k5fz9.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-164516-qp7k5fz9.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2007.15619v1.pdf
doi: nan
summary:
  This research paper proposes a COVID-19 monitoring and response system to identify the surge in the volume of patients at hospitals and shortage of critical equipment like ventilators in South-east Asian countries, to understand the burden on health facilities. The approach has yielded accurate results for states in India, and we are working on validating the model for the remaining countries so that it can serve as a reliable tool for authorities to monitor the burden on hospitals. The system pipeline includes scraping historical tweets at a granular level to obtain a corpus, processing the corpus using Natural Language Processing tools, calculating signals from the processed data, and finally evaluating the results by comparing ground reports and bulletins. To shortlist keywords which are most relevant to our analysis and can yield accurate signals for the trend, we first created a corpus of common words related to the study like ''hospital'', ''ICU'', etc.

title:
  AI-based Monitoring and Response System for Hospital Preparedness towards COVID-19 in Southeast Asia

abstract:
  This research paper proposes a COVID-19 monitoring and response system to identify the surge in the volume of patients at hospitals and shortage of critical equipment like ventilators in South-east Asian countries, to understand the burden on health facilities. This can help authorities in these regions with resource planning measures to redirect resources to the regions identified by the model. Due to the lack of publicly available data on the influx of patients in hospitals, or the shortage of equipment, ICU units or hospital beds that regions in these countries might be facing, we leverage Twitter data for gleaning this information. The approach has yielded accurate results for states in India, and we are working on validating the model for the remaining countries so that it can serve as a reliable tool for authorities to monitor the burden on hospitals.


id: cord-175286-j9mvulr0
author: Prasad, Rabinder Kumar
date: 2020-07-12
url: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2007.05954v1.pdf
doi: nan
title:
  Changing Clusters of Indian States with respect to number of Cases of COVID-19 using incrementalKMN Method

abstract:
  The novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) incidence in India is currently experiencing exponential rise but with apparent spatial variation in growth rate and doubling time rate. We classify the states into five clusters with low to the high-risk category and study how the different states moved from one cluster to the other since the onset of the first case on $30^{th}$ January 2020 till the end of unlock 1 that is $30^{th}$ June 2020. We have implemented a new clustering technique called the incrementalKMN (Prasad, R. K., Sarmah, R., Chakraborty, S.(2019))


id: cord-187857-emgxp5wg
title: Estimating the number of COVID-19 infections in Indian hot-spots using fatality data
author: Gupta, Sourendu
date: 2020-04-07
txt: ./txt/cord-187857-emgxp5wg.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-187857-emgxp5wg.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.04025v1.pdf
doi: nan
summary:
  title: Estimating the number of COVID-19 infections in Indian hot-spots using fatality data Using counts of fatalities, and previously estimated parameters for the progress of the disease, we give statistical estimates of the infected population. We suggest a method for estimating epidemiological parameters for COVID-19 in different locations within a few days, so adding to the information required for gauging the success of public health interventions In this note we use a method to estimate the actual number of infections from the documented number of fatalities. We use statistical models for the progression of the disease from asymptomatic to resolution into recovery or fatality which are parametrized to fit reports. Using these we make predictions for the infected population now and in future for various scenarios for the exponential growth rate. From the data on the geographical distribution of fatalities in India, we identified four possible hot-spots for COVID-19.

abstract:
  In India the COVID-19 infected population has not yet been accurately established. As always in the early stages of any epidemic, the need to test serious cases first has meant that the population with asymptomatic or mild sub-clinical symptoms has not yet been analyzed. Using counts of fatalities, and previously estimated parameters for the progress of the disease, we give statistical estimates of the infected population. The doubling time is a crucial unknown input parameter which affects these estimates, and may differ strongly from one geographical location to another. We suggest a method for estimating epidemiological parameters for COVID-19 in different locations within a few days, so adding to the information required for gauging the success of public health interventions


id: cord-200185-oz2x9a9s
author: Agrawal, Shubhada
date: 2020-08-11
url: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2008.04849v1.pdf
doi: nan
title:
  City-Scale Agent-Based Simulators for the Study of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions in the Context of the COVID-19 Epidemic

abstract:
  We highlight the usefulness of city-scale agent-based simulators in studying various non-pharmaceutical interventions to manage an evolving pandemic. We ground our studies in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic and demonstrate the power of the simulator via several exploratory case studies in two metropolises, Bengaluru and Mumbai. Such tools become common-place in any city administration's tool kit in our march towards digital health.


id: cord-201898-d1vbnjff
title: Forecasting the transmission of Covid-19 in India using a data driven SEIRD model
author: Jha, Vishwajeet
date: 2020-06-08
url: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.04464v1.pdf
doi: nan
abstract:
  The infections and fatalities due to SARS-CoV-2 virus for cases specific to India have been studied using a deterministic susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered-dead (SEIRD) compartmental model. One of the most significant epidemiological parameter, namely the effective reproduction number of the infection is extracted from the daily growth rate data of reported infections and it is included in the model with a time variation. We evaluate the effect of control interventions implemented till now and estimate the case numbers for infections and deaths averted by these restrictive measures. We further provide a forecast on the extent of the future Covid-19 transmission in India and predict the probable numbers of infections and fatalities under various potential scenarios.


id: cord-205189-4be24yda
author: Asawa, Parth
date: 2020-10-26
txt: ./txt/cord-205189-4be24yda.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-205189-4be24yda.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2010.14628v1.pdf
doi: nan
summary:
  We see that the new case predictions reflects twitter sentiment, meaningfully tied to a trigger sub-event that enables policy-related findings for Spain and India to be effectively compared. To this end, we juxtapose Spain and India''s epidemiological data to identify a date when the curves show the number of new cases diverging from each other, and India started showing worsening conditions.Although it could be argued that the differences we see in cases were due to travel from hotspots, it''s important to note that India closed its borders by suspending all international flights starting March 22nd, in addition to taking steps to suspend inter-state travel by suspending domestic flights and domestic trains throughout the time frame of our analysis 3 . On the data from these states/regions, we did visualizations of counts of new cases during April and May. This period was essential to assess the effectiveness of government policies in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic.

title:
  COVID-19 in Spain and India: Comparing Policy Implications by Analyzing Epidemiological and Social Media Data

abstract:
  The COVID-19 pandemic has forced public health experts to develop contingent policies to stem the spread of infection, including measures such as partial/complete lockdowns. The effectiveness of these policies has varied with geography, population distribution, and effectiveness in implementation. Consequently, some nations (e.g., Taiwan, Haiti) have been more successful than others (e.g., United States) in curbing the outbreak. A data-driven investigation into effective public health policies of a country would allow public health experts in other nations to decide future courses of action to control the outbreaks of disease and epidemics. We chose Spain and India to present our analysis on regions that were similar in terms of certain factors: (1) population density, (2) unemployment rate, (3) tourism, and (4) quality of living. We posit that citizen ideology obtainable from twitter conversations can provide insights into conformity to policy and suitably reflect on future case predictions. A milestone when the curves show the number of new cases diverging from each other is used to define a time period to extract policy-related tweets while the concepts from a causality network of policy-dependent sub-events are used to generate concept clouds. The number of new cases is predicted using sentiment scores in a regression model. We see that the new case predictions reflects twitter sentiment, meaningfully tied to a trigger sub-event that enables policy-related findings for Spain and India to be effectively compared.


id: cord-223332-51670qld
title: An operational architecture for privacy-by-design in public service applications
author: Agrawal, Prashant
date: 2020-06-08
url: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.04654v1.pdf
doi: nan
abstract:
  Governments around the world are trying to build large data registries for effective delivery of a variety of public services. However, these efforts are often undermined due to serious concerns over privacy risks associated with collection and processing of personally identifiable information. While a rich set of special-purpose privacy-preserving techniques exist in computer science, they are unable to provide end-to-end protection in alignment with legal principles in the absence of an overarching operational architecture to ensure purpose limitation and protection against insider attacks. This either leads to weak privacy protection in large designs, or adoption of overly defensive strategies to protect privacy by compromising on utility. In this paper, we present an operational architecture for privacy-by-design based on independent regulatory oversight stipulated by most data protection regimes, regulated access control, purpose limitation and data minimisation. We briefly discuss the feasibility of implementing our architecture based on existing techniques. We also present some sample case studies of privacy-preserving design sketches of challenging public service applications.


id: cord-224428-t8s52emf
title: Coronavirus (COVID-19): ARIMA based time-series analysis to forecast near future
author: Tandon, Hiteshi
date: 2020-04-16
txt: ./txt/cord-224428-t8s52emf.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-224428-t8s52emf.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.07859v1.pdf
doi: nan
summary:
  The numbers in India have reached up to 10,453 for confirmed COVID-19 infected cases with 358 deaths and 1181 recoveries as reported on 13 April 2020. The main objective of the study is to find the best predictive model and apply it to forecast future incidence of COVID-19 cases in India. We have applied an ARIMA model to the time series data of confirmed COVID-19 cases in India. 11 In the present study, time series analysis is used to recognize the trends in confirmed COVID-19 cases in India over the period of 22 A comparative study is also performed to examine the status of confirmed COVID-19 cases of India with respect to those of highly infected countries. Figure 2 For comparing the actual and forecasted confirmed COVID-19 cases, a time series graph is plotted starting from 30 January 2020 till 13 April 2020.

abstract:
  COVID-19, a novel coronavirus, is currently a major worldwide threat. It has infected more than a million people globally leading to hundred-thousands of deaths. In such grave circumstances, it is very important to predict the future infected cases to support prevention of the disease and aid in the healthcare service preparation. Following that notion, we have developed a model and then employed it for forecasting future COVID-19 cases in India. The study indicates an ascending trend for the cases in the coming days. A time series analysis also presents an exponential increase in the number of cases. It is supposed that the present prediction models will assist the government and medical personnel to be prepared for the upcoming conditions and have more readiness in healthcare systems.


id: cord-232657-deu921ma
title: Surveillance of COVID-19 Pandemic using Hidden Markov Model
author: Prabhu, Shreekanth M.
date: 2020-08-14
url: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2008.07609v1.pdf
doi: nan
abstract:
  COVID-19 pandemic has brought the whole world to a stand-still over the last few months. In particular the pace at which pandemic has spread has taken everybody off-guard. The Governments across the world have responded by imposing lock-downs, stopping/restricting travel and mandating social distancing. On the positive side there is wide availability of information on active cases, recoveries and deaths collected daily across regions. However, what has been particularly challenging is to track the spread of the disease by asymptomatic carriers termed as super-spreaders. In this paper we look at applying Hidden Markov Model to get a better assessment of extent of spread. The outcome of such analysis can be useful to Governments to design the required interventions/responses in a calibrated manner. The data we have chosen to analyze pertains to Indian scenario.


id: cord-246504-wjpi5uvz
title: The effect of extended closure of red-light areas on COVID-19 transmission in India
author: Pandey, Abhishek
date: 2020-06-12
txt: ./txt/cord-246504-wjpi5uvz.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-246504-wjpi5uvz.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.10488v1.pdf
doi: nan
summary:
  We developed a model of COVID-19 transmission in RLAs, evaluating the impact of extended RLA closure compared with RLA reopening on cases, hospitalizations, and mortality rates within the RLAs of five major Indian cities, within the cities, and across India. The combined features of a high volume of visitors, high contact rates, potential higher infectivity of sex workers, and long-distance travel of clients across India may make the reopening of RLAs a risk to increasing COVID-19 transmission, health care utilization, and death. To understand the potential impact of extended closure of RLAs on COVID-19 in India, we developed a model that quantifies the effects of re-opening RLAs after the end of the lockdown. We found that an extended closure of RLAs after the initial lockdown period would avert 32% to 60.2% of cumulative cases and 43% to 67.6% of cumulative deaths across India when compared at the date of the peak of epidemic under re-opening of RLAs ( Fig. 3 , Appendix Table 4 ).

abstract:
  The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has resulted in over 200,000 cases in India. Thus far, India has implemented lockdown measures to curb disease transmission. However, commercial sex work in red-light areas (RLAs) has potential to lead to COVID-19 resurgence after lockdown. We developed a model of COVID-19 transmission in RLAs, evaluating the impact of extended RLA closure compared with RLA reopening on cases, hospitalizations, and mortality rates within the RLAs of five major Indian cities, within the cities, and across India. Closure lowered transmission at all scales. More than 90% of cumulative cases and deaths among RLA residents of Kolkata, Pune, and Nagpur could be averted by the time the epidemic would peak under a re-opening scenario. Across India, extended closure of RLAs would benefit the population at large, delaying the peak of COVID-19 cases by 8 to 23 days, and avert 32% to 60.2% of cumulative cases and 43% to 67.6% of cumulative deaths at the peak of the epidemic. Extended closure of RLAs until better prevention and treatment strategies are developed would benefit public health in India.


id: cord-251939-dvbua4pf
title: AIDS denial in Asia: Dimensions and roots
author: Nepal, Binod
date: 2007-12-31
txt: ./txt/cord-251939-dvbua4pf.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-251939-dvbua4pf.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/pii/S0168851007001157
doi: 10.1016/j.healthpol.2007.04.011
summary:
  These are (1) historical impressions that STDs are Western diseases, (2) desire of some Asian leaders to forge Eastern points of view, and (3) long-held negative image towards the peoples or groups who happened to be at the front-line of the population groups exposed to the epidemic. observed that although information about devastating impacts of HIV/AIDS in Africa was widely circulated in the region, most countries in Asia took no initiative to adopt the measures proven to be effective in controlling the epidemic [9] . The negative public image of HIV/AIDS and people carrying the virus is not only associated with the nature of the disease but also with the socially constructed meaning or understanding about the risk factors. Generally, India and China kept questioning the validity of the HIV/AIDS estimates and relevance of the prevention programs prescribed by the international institutions and Western health experts.

abstract:
  Abstract AIDS denial has long been viewed as the obstacle to forging effective response in many Asian countries. This article examines the dimensions and roots of this phenomenon. It identifies seven types of views, attitudes, or tendencies that can be described as denial, dissent, disagreements, or doubts. Three major factors underlying the AIDS denial are discussed. These are (1) historical impressions that STDs are Western diseases, (2) desire of some Asian leaders to forge Eastern points of view, and (3) long-held negative image towards the peoples or groups who happened to be at the front-line of the population groups exposed to the epidemic. The third factor is the most important source of denial. AIDS denial is not a new and isolated phenomenon but the one shaped by the global and historical institutions. Asian AIDS denial reflects the authoritarian and moralist grievances arising from the perceived deterioration of traditional moral order.


id: cord-252763-gy8f1oyt
title: Viral Diarrhoea in a Rural Coastal Region of Karnataka India
author: Shetty, Mamatha
date: 1995-10-17
url: https://doi.org/10.1093/tropej/41.5.301
doi: 10.1093/tropej/41.5.301
abstract:
  Abstract. A total of 106 children below 5 years of age admitted to the Kasturba Medical College Hospital Manipal Karnataka (South India) were investigated over a period of 6 months to determine the aetiologkal role of viruses in acute diarrhoea. Viral aetiological agents isolated were Rotaviruses in 12 (11 per cent) cases, Adenoviruses in 3 (3 per cent) cases, corona virus and astroviruses in two (2 per cent) cases each. Non-viral isolates were Cryptosporidium and Salmonella typhimurium in two cases each, and Entamoeba histolyticaand and Shigella flexneri in one case each.


id: cord-253461-o63ru7nr
title: Temporal Analysis of COVID-19 Peak Outbreak
author: Tewari, A.
date: 2020-09-13
url: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.09.11.20192229
doi: 10.1101/2020.09.11.20192229
abstract:
  Intent of this research is to explore how a specific class of mathematical models namely Susceptible-Infected-Removed model can be utilized to forecast peak outbreak timelines of COVID-19 epidemic amongst a population of interest starting from the date of first reported case. Till the time of this research, there was no effective and universally accepted vaccine to control transmission and spread of this infection. COVID-19 primarily spreads in population through respiratory droplets from an infected person cough and sneeze which infects people who are in proximity. COVID-19 is spreading contagiously across the world. If health policy makers and medical experts could get early and timely insights into when peak infection rate would occur after first reported case, they could plan and optimize medical personnel, ventilators supply, and other medical resources without over-taxing the infrastructure. The predictions may also help policymakers devise strategies to control the epidemic, potentially saving many lives. Thus, it can aid in critical decision-making process by providing actionable insights into COVID-19 outbreak by leveraging available data.


id: cord-253948-yi57n8nc
title: Impact of weather indicators on the COVID-19 outbreak: A multi-state study in India
author: Singh, K.
date: 2020-06-16
url: http://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.06.14.20130666v1?rss=1
doi: 10.1101/2020.06.14.20130666
abstract:
  The present study examines the impact of weather indicators on the COVID-19 outbreak in the majorly affected states of India. In this study, we hypothesize that the weather indicators could significantly influence the impact of the corona virus. The Kendall and Spearman rank correlation tests were chosen to conduct the statistical analysis. In this regard, we compiled a daily dataset including confirmed case counts, Recovered case counts, Deceased cases, Average Temperature, Maximum Relative Humidity, Maximum Wind Speed for six most affected states of India during the period of March 25, 2020 to April 24, 2020. We investigated that the average Humidity and Average Temperature seven days ago play a significant role in the recovery of coronavirus cases. The rise in average temperature will improve the recovery rate in the days to come. The cities with very high humidity levels or dry weather conditions have high probabilities of recovery from COVID-19. The findings of this research will help the policymakers to identify risky geographic areas and enforce timely preventive measures.


id: cord-254449-ww7iq04j
title: COVID-19: Shades of Grey
author: Naithani, Nardeep
date: 2020-05-20
txt: ./txt/cord-254449-ww7iq04j.txt
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mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32457558/
doi: 10.1016/j.mjafi.2020.04.010
abstract: nan
summary:
  from National Centre for Disease Control, India, have very lucidly highlighted nine domains where healthcare workers need to find answers, in this issue of the Journal. We have endeavoured to play our role as a peer reviewed medical journal while welcoming submissions on the entire spectrum of possible research on COVID-19 from across the world. Nevertheless, to carry the exit poll analogy further, mathematical models are increasingly becoming a valuable tool to equip the public health response in COVID-19. As the understanding of the transmission of the disease changes, mathematical models need to be dynamic tools to help policy making bodies. 12 The recent ordinance to amend the Epidemic Diseases Act, 1897 by the Govt of India will hopefully help to reduce the public brunt and help healthcare workers focus on SARS-CoV-2. Healthcare impact of COVID-19 epidemic in India: a stochastic mathematical model Predictive mathematical models of the COVID-19 pandemic: Underlying principles and value of projections


id: cord-254955-q5gb4qkq
author: Singh, B. P.
date: 2020-05-05
txt: ./txt/cord-254955-q5gb4qkq.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-254955-q5gb4qkq.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.29.20085175
doi: 10.1101/2020.04.29.20085175
summary:
  Novel corona virus is declared as pandemic and India is struggling to control this from a massive attack of death and destruction, similar to the other countries like China, Europe, and the United States of America. The time of point of inflexion is found in the end of the April, 2020 means after that the increasing growth will start decline and there will be no new case in India by the end of July, 2020. For the spread of novel corona virus, when disease dynamics are still unclear, mathematical modeling helps us to estimate the cumulative number of positive cases in the present scenarios. We obtained the truncated information on cumulative number of corona positive confirmed cases in India from March 13 to April 2, 2020 from covid19india.org. For example in the corona virus case, the maximum limit would be the total number of exposed people in India because when everybody is infected, the growth will be stopped.

title:
  Forecasting Novel Corona Positive Cases in Indiausing Truncated Information: A Mathematical Approach

abstract:
  Novel corona virus is declared as pandemic and India is struggling to control this from a massive attack of death and destruction, similar to the other countries like China, Europe, and the United States of America. India reported 2545 cases novel corona confirmed cases as of April 2, 2020 and out of which 191 cases were reported recovered and 72 deaths occurred. The first case of novel corona is reported in India on January 30, 2020. The growth in the initial phase is following exponential. In this study an attempt has been made to model the spread of novel corona infection. For this purpose logistic growth model with minor modification is used and the model is applied on truncated information on novel corona confirmed cases in India. The result is very exiting that till date predicted number of confirmed corona positive cases is very close to observed on. The time of point of inflexion is found in the end of the April, 2020 means after that the increasing growth will start decline and there will be no new case in India by the end of July, 2020.


id: cord-255399-4jtfnuf2
title: Respiratory therapists: the unnoticed warriors during COVID-19 pandemic in India
author: Sawadkar, Mrudula M.
date: 2020-10-30
txt: ./txt/cord-255399-4jtfnuf2.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-255399-4jtfnuf2.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33150198/
doi: 10.29390/cjrt-2020-044
abstract: nan
summary:
  title: Respiratory therapists: the unnoticed warriors during COVID-19 pandemic in India The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has emerged as the biggest health care crisis, affecting more than 200 countries worldwide. Along with the known health care communities like doctors and nurses, Respiratory Therapists (RTs) are working selflessly in tackling this situation. "Respiratory therapists sacrifice and dedicate themselves to helping their patients and their communities during this time of COVID-19," said Tom Kallstrom, AARC Executive Director [7] . He also added by saying, "Now, more than ever before, the role of the respiratory therapist is vital to the health of our nation." These encouraging words motivate RTs working to fight against COVID-19. The Indian Association of Respiratory Care (IARC) is striving hard to portray the hard work done by RTs throughout India and on international grounds. Burnout among healthcare workers during COVID-19 pandemic in India: Results of a questionnaire-based survey Department of Respiratory Therapy, Manipal College of Health Professions, Manipal Academy of Higher Education


id: cord-255405-o8ilxqo1
title: Modelling of Covid-19 cases in India using Regression and Time Series models
author: Sharma, V. K.
date: 2020-05-25
url: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.20.20107540
doi: 10.1101/2020.05.20.20107540
abstract:
  In this article, we analyze the growth pattern of Covid-19 pandemic in India from March 4th to May 15th using regression analysis (exponential and polynomial), auto-regressive integrated moving averages (ARIMA) model as well as Exponential Smoothing and Holt-Winters models. We found that the growth of Covid-19 cases follows a power regime of (t2,t..)after the exponential growth. We have found the optimal change points from where the covid-19 cases shifts their course of growth from exponential to quadratic and then quadratic to linear. We have also found the best fitted regression models using the various criteria like- significant p-values, coefficients of determination R2 values and ANOVA etc. Further, we have searched the best fitting ARIMA model for the data using the AIC (Akaike Information Criterion) and CAIC (Consistent Akaike Information Criterion) and forecasted the number of cases for future days. We have used the usual exponential smoothing and Holt-Winters models for the data. We further found that the ARIMA(2,2,0) model is the best-fitting model for Covid-19 cases in India.


id: cord-255574-gqekw0si
title: Chapter 14 Biosecurity Strategies for Backyard Poultry: A Controlled Way for Safe Food Production
author: Samanta, Indranil
date: 2018-12-31
url: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B9780128114452000143
doi: 10.1016/b978-0-12-811445-2.00014-3
abstract:
  Abstract The people of rural and periurban India depend on backyard farming system for poultry meat and eggs. It is used by weaker sections of society, such as marginal farmers as insurance against crop failure, for ready cash and to ensure basic economic returns and the empowerment of women and children. However, backyard farming does not appear to be a promising strategy to achieve the poverty reduction until the production level is increased. The major constraint in increasing the production in backyard birds is microbial infection due to lack of biosecurity knowledge among the farmers. The mitigation of the microbial infection depends on the detection of the infection route and its prevention. The source of microbial infection (Salmonella, Escherichia coli) and their dissemination through the eggs in backyard flocks kept in different agroclimatic zones of West Bengal, a major egg producing state in India, was identified. The pattern of virulence gene specially associated with urinary tract infection and antibiotic resistance genes, such as extended spectrum β lactamase (ESBL) genes of the isolates was studied. The chapter will elaborate the backyard farming including breeds reared, housing, feeding with special emphasis on suggested biosecurity strategies and consequence of the adapted strategy.


id: cord-256139-iqnvlnd1
title: Temporal evolution of COVID-19 in the states of India using SIQR Model
author: TIWARI, A.
date: 2020-06-09
txt: ./txt/cord-256139-iqnvlnd1.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-256139-iqnvlnd1.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: http://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.06.08.20125658v1?rss=1
doi: 10.1101/2020.06.08.20125658
summary:
  It has been determined that Uttar Pradesh is one of the best performers among five states with the doubling rate crossing 18 days as of 20th May. Tamil Nadu has witnessed the second wave of infections during the second week of May. Maharashtra is continuously improving at a steady rate with its doubling rate reaching to 12.67 days. In this paper, a time-dependent analysis of the five major contributing states of India (Maharashtra, UP, Gujrat, Tamil Nadu, and Delhi) is performed. Time-dependent reproduction number using SIQR method and the doubling rate of reported cases has been calculated and analysed. Time-dependent reproduction number and doubling rate discussed in above subsections 2.1 to 2.2 is determined for the major affected states of India using data from [6] . In terms of time-dependent reproduction number, this state has witnessed whooping Rt of 2.45 during the second week of May, followed by a drastic improvement, making it to reach 1.22 (Fig. 2 ).

abstract:
  COVID 19 entered during the last week of April 2020 in India has caused 3,546 deaths with 1,13,321 number of reported cases. Indian government has taken many proactive steps, including strict lockdown of the entire nation for more than 50 days, identification of hotspots, app-based tracking of citizens to track infected. This paper investigated the evolution of COVID 19 in five states of India (Maharashtra, UP, Gujrat, Tamil Nadu, and Delhi) from 1st April 2020 to 20th May 2020. Variation of doubling rate and reproduction number (from SIQR) with time is used to analyse the performance of the majorly affected Indian states. It has been determined that Uttar Pradesh is one of the best performers among five states with the doubling rate crossing 18 days as of 20th May. Tamil Nadu has witnessed the second wave of infections during the second week of May. Maharashtra is continuously improving at a steady rate with its doubling rate reaching to 12.67 days. Also these two states are performing below the national average in terms of infection doubling rate. Gujrat and Delhi have reported the doubling rate of 16.42 days and 15.49 days respectively. Comparison of these states has also been performed based on time-dependent reproduction number. Recovery rate of India has reached to 40 % as the day paper is written


id: cord-256719-njrjepor
title: COVID-19 care in India: the course to self-reliance
author: Balsari, Satchit
date: 2020-08-24
txt: ./txt/cord-256719-njrjepor.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-256719-njrjepor.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/pii/S2214109X20303843
doi: 10.1016/s2214-109x(20)30384-3
abstract: nan
summary:
  The public health response to COVID-19 in India has been highly centralised, resulting in a homogenous strategy applied across a sixth of the world''s population. Until April 27, 2020, national guidelines required that all symptomatic patients and families be transferred to health-care facilities and isolated away from their homes, and entire neighbourhoods be declared containment zones. 1 This strategy overwhelmed the health-care system in India''s most populous cities, including Mumbai and Delhi, and precluded access for non-COVID care. Most people with COVID-19 can be cared for at home, and there is no justification for institutionalising those with mild or no symptoms. 7 India''s general practitioners and community health workers, can effectively monitor a patient''s vital signs at home via in-person visits or telemedicine, distribute and encourage the use of masks and soap for handwashing, advise selfpronation, and, when possible, use adjuncts like pulse oximeters. New guidelines for home isolation of people with very mild symptoms of COVID-19.


id: cord-257004-zpyms1b7
author: Joshi, Madhuri S.
date: 2017-08-11
txt: ./txt/cord-257004-zpyms1b7.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-257004-zpyms1b7.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28710858/
doi: 10.1002/jmv.24901
summary:
  title: Identification of group B rotavirus as an etiological agent in the gastroenteritis outbreak in Maharashtra, India In India, circulation of GBR in sporadic cases of gastroenteritis was revealed from the retrospective analysis of stool samples collected in 1993. 21 RNA PAGE analysis has been reported to be 100 000 times less sensitive as compared to RT-PCR assay 22 The correlation between viral load and severity of the disease has been shown earlier among gastroenteritis patients infected with GAR using quantitative real time PCR assay. Occurrence of group B rotavirus infections in the outbreaks of acute gastroenteritis from western India Group C rotavirus infections in patients with acute gastroenteritis in outbreaks in western India between Group B rotavirus infection in patients with acute gastroenteritis from India Identification of group B rotavirus as an etiological agent in the gastroenteritis outbreak in Maharashtra, India

title:
  Identification of group B rotavirus as an etiological agent in the gastroenteritis outbreak in Maharashtra, India

abstract:
  Acute gastroenteritis outbreak occurred at Pargaon, Maharashtra, India in 1789 cases with an attack rate of 32.5% between November to December 2015. The stool specimens (n = 32) were investigated for different enteric viral agents using conventional methods. Transmission electron microscopy and RNA polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis respectively identified morphologically distinct rotavirus particles in 28% and RNA migration pattern of Group B Rotavirus (GBR) in 72% of the specimens. Reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction and nucleotide sequencing confirmed presence of GBR in 97% of the samples analyzed. The predominance of GBR infections and absence or insignificant presence of other agents confirmed GBR as an etiological agent of the gastroenteritis outbreak occurred in Maharashtra, India.


id: cord-258102-7q854ppl
title: LOCKDOWN AS A PANDEMIC MITIGATING POLICY INTERVENTION IN INDIA
author: Mandal, S.
date: 2020-06-20
url: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.19.20134437
doi: 10.1101/2020.06.19.20134437
abstract:
  Abstract. We use publicly available timeline data on the Covid-19 outbreak for nine indian states to calculate the important quantifier of the outbreak, the sought after Rt or the time varying reproduction number of the outbreak. This quantity can be measured in in several ways, e.g. by application of Stochastic compartmentalised SIR (DCM) model, Poissonian likelihood based (ML) model & the exponential growth rate (EGR) model. The third one is known as the effective reproduction number of an outbreak. Here we use, mostly, the second one. It is known as the instantaneous reproduction number for an outbreak. This number can faithfully tell us the success of lockdown measures inside indian states, as containment policy for the spread of Covid-19 viral disease. This can also, indirectly yield notional value of the generation time inteval in different states. In doing this work we employ, pan India serial interval of the outbreak estimated directly from data from January 30th to April 19th, 2020. Simultaneously, in conjunction with the serial interval data, our result is derived from incidences data between March 14th, 2020 to June 1st, 2020, for the said states. We find the lockdown had marked positive effect on the nature of time dependent reproduction number in most of the Indian states, barring a couple. The possible reason for such failures have been investigated.


id: cord-258137-np62exds
title: Indians vs.COVID-19: The scenario of mental health
author: Sharma, Surbhi
date: 2020-09-07
url: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666351120300383?v=s5
doi: 10.1016/j.sintl.2020.100038
abstract:
  The fight with COVID-19 pandemic seems nowhere near the end and is extremely daunting. An upsurge in cases of mental illness in India post the pandemic is a clear indicator of its scary impact. The situation of lockdown is causing the feeling of distress, agitation and helplessness among the people. Healthcare workers, poverty-stricken people, elderly, kids and persons with some pre-existing medical condition are more vulnerable to anxiety currently. Practicing a healthy lifestyle; yoga, meditation, avoiding reading too much about the pandemic and being with family are the ways to assuage stress.


id: cord-261583-gahlq2uh
title: Information Flow And COVID-19 Recovery
author: Chundakkadan, Radeef
date: 2020-07-27
txt: ./txt/cord-261583-gahlq2uh.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-261583-gahlq2uh.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32834390/
doi: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105112
summary:
  This study examines whether the flow of information pertaining to COVID-19 helps to contain the pandemic. We capture the information flow of the pandemic using the Google Search Volume Index for the keyword coronavirus+covid in 33 states and union territories in India. We capture the information flow of the pandemic using the Google Search Volume Index for the keyword coronavirus+covid in 33 states and union territories in India. Since the COVID-19 vaccine is not yet developed, the ideal strategy to contain the pandemic is through the proliferation of information pertaining to the coronavirus among the public and make them aware of the precautionary measures. To capture the information flow, we rely on the Google Search Volume Index (GSVI) for the keyword coronavirus+covid in each state of India. This finding suggests that the flow of COVID-19 related information through the internet might be an effective containment strategy against the pandemic. Examine whether the information flow through online platforms helps in containing COVID-19

abstract:
  This study examines whether the flow of information pertaining to COVID-19 helps to contain the pandemic. We capture the information flow of the pandemic using the Google Search Volume Index for the keyword coronavirus+covid in 33 states and union territories in India. We find that the information flow is inversely related to positive cases reported in these regions. This result suggests that internet inclusion is a relevant factor in the fight against the pandemic.


id: cord-261835-5p5bkcnt
title: Extended lockdown and India''s alcohol policy: a qualitative analysis of newspaper articles
author: Ghosh, Abhishek
date: 2020-09-15
txt: ./txt/cord-261835-5p5bkcnt.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-261835-5p5bkcnt.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32947138/
doi: 10.1016/j.drugpo.2020.102940
summary:
  We conducted a qualitative analysis of the media reports published within the first month of the nationwide lockdown with the objectives of (a) using the media reports as indications of possible public health impact and population response to a sudden alcohol prohibition in India, (b) suggesting areas for future research. We conducted a qualitative analysis of the media reports published within the first month of the nationwide lockdown with the objectives of (a) using the media reports as indications of possible public health impact and population response to a sudden alcohol prohibition in India, (b) suggesting areas for future research. Type of news-items was only in English, published between 26th March to 25th April with the search words: "Alcohol", "Alcohol policy", "state", "Alcohol treatment", "illicit liquor", "Alcohol ban", "Alcohol revenue", "Alcohol suicide", "Alcohol lobby", "Alcohol e-marketing", "Alcohol withdrawal", "Alcoholics", "Chief minister Alcohol", "Isopropyl alcohol", "Alcohol revenue" "Alcohol poisoning", "alcohol price" "Alcohol home-delivery".

abstract:
  OBJECTIVES: : Since 25th March 2020 India went into a complete and extended lockdown. Alcohol production, sales, and purchase were barred with this overnight prohibition order. We conducted a qualitative analysis of the media reports published within the first month of the nationwide lockdown with the objectives (a) using the media reports as indications of possible public health impact and population response of a sudden alcohol prohibition in India, (b) suggesting areas for future research. METHODS: : We performed thematic and content analysis of 350 articles published online in national newspapers between the 26th March, 2020 and 25th April, 2020. Initial inductive, followed by deductive coding was done in this exploratory thematic analysis. Results: The thematic analysis revealed four main themes: the beneficial aspects of the policy, the harmful aspects of the policy, non-compliance and attempts to change and / or subvert the policy, popularity and level of public buy-in of the policy. We generated relevant sub-themes under main themes. Two additional themes, not directly related to the sudden prohibition, were use of stigmatizing language and ethical concerns. The content analysis showed the frequency of the appearance of the main themes and proportions of sub-themes and codes under those main themes. CONCLUSION: : The harms, perceived from the media reports, should be balanced against the potential benefits. Absence of a national-level alcohol policy was made apparent by the reflexive, disconnected , and conflictual measures. Future research could systematically examine the potential ramifications of alcohol prohibition on public health, social, and economic aspects.


id: cord-262460-d6t4m6xc
author: Gressel, Christie M.
date: 2020-08-18
txt: ./txt/cord-262460-d6t4m6xc.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-262460-d6t4m6xc.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wdp.2020.100245
doi: 10.1016/j.wdp.2020.100245
summary:
  c. Furthermore, a time-based aspect is needed in terms of the initial evaluation, implementation, and measurement of empowerment interventions, so that empowerment can be addressed as a developmental process for women as well as their families and communities. The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction addresses all three of these components in their definition of vulnerability: "The conditions determined by physical, social, economic and environmental factors or processes, which increase the susceptibility of a community to the impact of hazards." (UNISDR, 2015) . These intricacies encompass the understanding that women must find and build the inner resources in order to engage with 1b) Development of a systematic and holistic approach that can account for the many contexts of society along with the various aspects or dimensions of empowerment that impact a woman.

title:
  Vulnerability mapping: A conceptual framework towards a context-based approach to women’s empowerment

abstract:
  • Women’s empowerment interventions are not as effective as hoped or intended. • Could be an issue with intervention design and implementation. • Research reveals that there are several limitations to existing women’s empowerment approaches. • These include disregard of context, a non-holistic approach, difficulty measuring variables, etc. • Vulnerability mapping may be able to address these limitations; we present an adapted framework.


id: cord-262480-e0dq1t1v
author: Chand, Raj
date: 2020-07-12
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32755826/
doi: 10.1016/j.dsx.2020.06.057
abstract: nan
title:
  Letter to the Editor in response to the article: “Increase in the risk of type 2 diabetes during lockdown for the COVID19 pandemic in India: A cohort analysis” (Ghoshal et al.)


id: cord-262550-oip5m9br
title: The Rise and Impact of COVID-19 in India
author: Kumar, S. Udhaya
date: 2020-05-22
txt: ./txt/cord-262550-oip5m9br.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-262550-oip5m9br.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32574338/
doi: 10.3389/fmed.2020.00250
summary:
  The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, which originated in the city of Wuhan, China, has quickly spread to various countries, with many cases having been reported worldwide. The Ministry of Health and Family Welfare of India has raised awareness about the recent outbreak and has taken necessary actions to control the spread of COVID-19. The recent outbreak of COVID-19 in several countries is similar to the previous outbreaks of SARS and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) that emerged in 2003 and 2012 in China and Saudi Arabia, respectively (8) (9) (10) . A recent study reported that affected family members had not visit the Wuhan market in China, suggesting that SARS-CoV-2 may spread without manifesting symptoms (21) . The Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MOHFW), India, has raised awareness about the recent outbreak and taken necessary action to control COVID-19. The impacts on health, society, and economy of SARS and H7N9 outbreaks in China: a case comparison study

abstract:
  The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, which originated in the city of Wuhan, China, has quickly spread to various countries, with many cases having been reported worldwide. As of May 8th, 2020, in India, 56,342 positive cases have been reported. India, with a population of more than 1.34 billion—the second largest population in the world—will have difficulty in controlling the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 among its population. Multiple strategies would be highly necessary to handle the current outbreak; these include computational modeling, statistical tools, and quantitative analyses to control the spread as well as the rapid development of a new treatment. The Ministry of Health and Family Welfare of India has raised awareness about the recent outbreak and has taken necessary actions to control the spread of COVID-19. The central and state governments are taking several measures and formulating several wartime protocols to achieve this goal. Moreover, the Indian government implemented a 55-days lockdown throughout the country that started on March 25th, 2020, to reduce the transmission of the virus. This outbreak is inextricably linked to the economy of the nation, as it has dramatically impeded industrial sectors because people worldwide are currently cautious about engaging in business in the affected regions.


id: cord-262787-3a3c8ee1
author: Ray, Debashree
date: 2020-04-18
url: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.15.20067256
doi: 10.1101/2020.04.15.20067256
title:
  Predictions, role of interventions and effects of a historic national lockdown in India's response to the COVID-19 pandemic: data science call to arms

abstract:
  Importance: India has taken strong and early public health measures for arresting the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic. With only 536 COVID-19 cases and 11 fatalities, India - a democracy of 1.34 billion people - took the historic decision of a 21-day national lockdown on March 25. The lockdown was further extended to May 3, soon after the analysis of this paper was completed. Objective: To study the short- and long-term impact of an initial 21-day lockdown on the total number of COVID-19 cases in India compared to other less severe non-pharmaceutical interventions using epidemiological forecasting models and Bayesian estimation algorithms; to compare effects of hypothetical durations of lockdown from an epidemiological perspective; to study alternative explanations for slower growth rate of the virus outbreak in India, including exploring the association of the number of cases and average monthly temperature; and finally, to outline the pivotal role of reliable and transparent data, reproducible data science methods, tools and products as we reopen the country and prepare for a post lock-down phase of the pandemic. Design, Setting, and Participants: We use the daily data on the number of COVID-19 cases, of recovered and of deaths from March 1 until April 7, 2020 from the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering (JHU CSSE). Additionally, we use COVID-19 incidence counts data from Kaggle and the monthly average temperature of major cities across the world from Wikipedia. Main Outcome and Measures: The current time-series data on daily proportions of cases and removed (recovered and death combined) from India are analyzed using an extended version of the standard SIR (susceptible, infected, and removed) model. The eSIR model incorporates time-varying transmission rates that help us predict the effect of lockdown compared to other hypothetical interventions on the number of cases at future time points. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo implementation of this model provided predicted proportions of the cases at future time points along with credible intervals (CI). Results: Our predicted cumulative number of COVID-19 cases in India on April 30 assuming a 1-week delay in people's adherence to a 21-day lockdown (March 25 - April 14) and a gradual, moderate resumption of daily activities after April 14 is 9,181 with upper 95% CI of 72,245. In comparison, the predicted cumulative number of cases under "no intervention" and "social distancing and travel bans without lockdown" are 358 thousand and 46 thousand (upper 95% CI of nearly 2.3 million and 0.3 million) respectively. An effective lockdown can prevent roughly 343 thousand (upper 95% CI 1.8 million) and 2.4 million (upper 95% CI 38.4 million) COVID-19 cases nationwide compared to social distancing alone by May 15 and June 15, respectively. When comparing a 21-day lockdown with a hypothetical lockdown of longer duration, we find that 28-, 42-, and 56-day lockdowns can approximately prevent 238 thousand (upper 95% CI 2.3 million), 622 thousand (upper 95% CI 4.3 million), 781 thousand (upper 95% CI 4.6 million) cases by June 15, respectively. We find some suggestive evidence that the COVID-19 incidence rates worldwide are negatively associated with temperature in a crude unadjusted analysis with Pearson correlation estimates [95% confidence interval] between average monthly temperature and total monthly incidence around the world being -0.185 [-0.548, 0.236] for January, -0.110 [-0.362, 0.157] for February, and -0.173 [-0.314, -0.026] for March. Conclusions and Relevance: The lockdown, if implemented correctly in the end, has a high chance of reducing the total number of COVID-19 cases in the short term, and buy India invaluable time to prepare its healthcare and disease monitoring system. Our analysis shows we need to have some measures of suppression in place after the lockdown for the best outcome. We cannot heavily rely on the hypothetical prevention governed by meteorological factors such as temperature based on current evidence. From an epidemiological perspective, a longer lockdown between 42-56 days is preferable. However, the lockdown comes at a tremendous price to social and economic health through a contagion process not dissimilar to that of the coronavirus itself. Data can play a defining role as we design post-lockdown testing, reopening and resource allocation strategies. Software: Our contribution to data science includes an interactive and dynamic app (covind19.org) with short- and long-term projections updated daily that can help inform policy and practice related to COVID-19 in India. Anyone can visualize the observed data for India and create predictions under hypothetical scenarios with quantification of uncertainties. We make our prediction codes freely available (https://github.com/umich-cphds/cov-ind-19) for reproducible science and for other COVID-19 affected countries to use them for their prediction and data visualization work.


id: cord-264266-6xvj9zey
author: Chakrabarti, Sankha Shubhra
date: 2020-05-09
txt: ./txt/cord-264266-6xvj9zey.txt
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url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32489695/
doi: 10.14336/ad.2020.0402
summary:
  Apart from SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV which caused severe respiratory diseases following outbreaks in 2003 and 2012, there are four endemic human corona viruses, HCoV-229E, HCoV NL-63, HCoV-OC4, HCoV-HKU1 in populations that are responsible for various types of respiratory illness which are generally self-limiting in young and immunecompetent persons [8] . It can be assumed that some degrees of sequence homology or conformational similarities among the structural proteins, especially the S protein, of SARS-CoV-2 and the endemic corona viruses (HCoV-229E, HCoV NL-63, HCoV-OC4, HCoV-HKU1) may result in cross-reactive immunity (circulating antibodies or primed T-cells) in persons with prior exposure to the latter viruses, and this may modulate the course and outcome of COVID-19. Thus, the possibility of a protective cross-immunity in the Indian population against COVID-19 cannot be ignored in explaining a rather mild effect of the current coronavirus pandemic in India in comparison to that in Europe and the USA. Therefore, cross-reactive antibodies generated as a result of infections from other human corona viruses may have a protective role in a population affected by COVID-19.

title:
  COVID-19 in India: Are Biological and Environmental Factors Helping to Stem the Incidence and Severity?

abstract:
  The ongoing Corona virus (COVID-19) pandemic has witnessed global political responses of unimaginable proportions. Many nations have implemented lockdowns that involve mandating citizens not to leave their residences for non-essential work. The Indian government has taken appropriate and commendable steps to curtail the community spread of COVID-19. While this may be extremely beneficial, this perspective discusses the other reasons why COVID-19 may have a lesser impact on India. We analyze the current pattern of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, testing, and mortality in India with an emphasis on the importance of mortality as a marker of the clinical relevance of COVID-19 disease. We also analyze the environmental and biological factors which may lessen the impact of COVID-19 in India. The importance of cross-immunity, innate immune responses, ACE polymorphism, and viral genetic mutations are discussed.


id: cord-264296-0x90yubt
title: Analyzing hCov genome sequences: Applying Machine Intelligence and beyond
author: Sawmya, Shashata
date: 2020-06-03
txt: ./txt/cord-264296-0x90yubt.txt
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url: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.03.131987
doi: 10.1101/2020.06.03.131987
summary:
  We present here an analysis pipeline comprising phylogenetic analysis on strains of this novel virus to track its evolutionary history among the countries uncovering several interesting relationships, followed by a classification exercise to identify the virulence of the strains and extraction of important features from its genetic material that are used subsequently to predict mutation at those interesting sites using deep learning techniques. C. Several CNN-RNN based models are used to predict mutations at specific Sites of Interest (SoIs) of the sars-cov-2 genome sequence followed by further analyses of the same on several South-Asian countries. D. Overall, we present an analysis pipeline that can be further utilized as well as extended and revised (a) to study where a newly discovered genome sequence lies in relation to its predecessors in different regions of the world; (b) to analyse its virulence with respect to the number of deaths its predecessors have caused in their respective countries and (c) to analyse the mutation at specific important sites of the viral genome.

abstract:
  Covid-19 pandemic, caused by the sars-cov-2 strain of coronavirus, has affected millions of people all over the world and taken thousands of lives. It is of utmost importance that the character of this deadly virus be studied and its nature be analysed. We present here an analysis pipeline comprising phylogenetic analysis on strains of this novel virus to track its evolutionary history among the countries uncovering several interesting relationships, followed by a classification exercise to identify the virulence of the strains and extraction of important features from its genetic material that are used subsequently to predict mutation at those interesting sites using deep learning techniques. In a nutshell, we have prepared an analysis pipeline for hCov genome sequences leveraging the power of machine intelligence and uncovered what remained apparently shrouded by raw data.


id: cord-264957-po7wys3s
title: Covid-19 Pandemic- Pits and falls of major states of India.
author: Singh, A.
date: 2020-06-20
txt: ./txt/cord-264957-po7wys3s.txt
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url: http://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.06.18.20134486v1?rss=1
doi: 10.1101/2020.06.18.20134486
summary:
  The study finds that although the absolute number of active cases may be rising, however it is showing a decreasing trend with an increase in recovery rates. World Health Organization on January 30 th 2020 declared Novel Coronavirus as Public Health Emergency of International concern and on March 11 th 2020 Covid-19 disease was stated as pandemic based on its spreads severity [3] . A study while analysing the burden of pandemic in India found that Maharashtra having highest number of Covid-19 positive cases is solely responsible for more than one third of cases as on May 17 th 2020 followed by Gujarat and Tamil Nadu. The Ministry of Health and Family Welfare stated on June 12 th that India''s doubling rate of Covid-19 cases has increased from 3.4 days when lockdown began (March 25 th ) to 17.4 days currently [15] .

abstract:
  Covid-19, just like SARS and MERS before it, is a disease caused by corona virus and can lead to severe respiratory diseases in humans. With the outbreak of novel corona virus, WHO on 30th January 2020 declared it a Public Health Emergency and further on 11th March 2020, Covid-19 disease was declared a pandemic. India in the initial stages of the pandemic dealt with it in a very effective manner. With timely implementation of lockdown, India was able to contain the spread of Covid-19 to some extent. However with the recently announced Unlock 1.0, the SARS CoV-2 is expected to spread. This study aims to track and analyze the Covid-19 situation in major states that constitute of 70 percent of the total cases. Thus the states selected for the study are: Maharashtra, Delhi, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan. These are the states which had more than ten thousand Covid-19 patients as/on June 10th 2020. The analysis period is from March 25th to June 10th and the data source is India Covid-19 tracker. To assess the previous and current Covid-19 situations in these states indicators such as Active rates, Recovery rate, Case fatality rate, Test positivity rate, tests per million, cases per million, test per confirmed case has been used. The study finds that although the absolute number of active cases may be rising, however it is showing a decreasing trend with an increase in recovery rates. With increasing number of Covid-19 cases, testing also has increased however not in the similar proportion and thus by developed nation standard we are lagging. With increasing TPR and cases per million, Delhi is well on its way to surpass even Mumbai which till now has proven to be worst hit in this pandemic. An interesting finding is that of test per confirmed case which shows that every 6th person in Maharashtra and every 8th in Delhi is showing positive result of Covid-19 test. Given such an increase and unlocked India, Delhi might soon enter into the third stage of community transmission where source of 50 percent or more cases would be unknown. There has been an increase in the Covid-19 related health infrastructure with the public-private partnership which involved both private hospitals and lab joining hands to battle Covid-19, however, affordability still remains an issue. If experts are to be believed, pandemic is not over because we have unlocked. The worst is yet to come as Covid-19 is predicted to peak in mid-July to August in India. Thus, it would be advisable to not venture out unnecessarily just because restrictions have been lifted. Also, following the guidelines- hand-washing, avoiding public gathering, social distancing and covering nose and mouth has now become imperative.


id: cord-265027-kvtqpgqq
title: Studying the progress of COVID-19 outbreak in India using SIRD model
author: Chatterjee, S.
date: 2020-05-13
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url: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.11.20098681
doi: 10.1101/2020.05.11.20098681
summary:
  The model further underlines that in the highly contagious zones (''red'' zones where COVID-19 positive cases continue to grow), if the present lockdown is extended and reinforced with stricter quarantine measures, the new infections will gradually plummet down flattening the COVID-19 curve at a much faster rate. In a nutshell, we start with the initial susceptible population (S 0 ) varying in the range ∼ 1-3 million S 0 , keeping the effective reproduction number R e fixed at ∼ 4.0, and show how the model prediction fits with the Indian data without a lockdown, the location of the infection peak and the relative deviation from the real data ( Fig. 2A) . 1. The effective containment during the present lockdown in India indicates that the infected population might reach its peak at the end of June (Fig. 2) whereas Ger-All rights reserved.

abstract:
  We explore a standard epidemiological model, known as the SIRD model, to study the COVID-19 infection in India, and a few other countries around the world. We use (a) the stable cumulative infection of various countries and (b) the number of infection versus the tests carried out to evaluate the model. The time-dependent infection rate is set in the model to obtain the best fit with the available data. The model is simulated aiming to project the probable features of the infection in India, various Indian states, and other countries. India imposed an early lockdown to contain the infection that can be treated by its healthcare system. We find that with the current infection rate and containment measures, the total active infection in India would be maximum at the end of June or beginning of July 2020. With proper containment measures in the infected zones and social distancing, the infection is expected to fall considerably from August. If the containment measures are relaxed before the arrival of the peak infection, more people from the susceptible population will fall sick as the infection is expected to see a three-fold rise at the peak. If the relaxation is given a month after the peak infection, a second peak with a moderate infection will follow. However, a gradual relaxation applied well ahead of peak infection, leads to a two-fold increase in the peak infection. The projection of the model is highly sensitive to the choice of the parameters and the available data. Our model provides a semi-quantitative overview of the progression of COVID-19 in India, with model projections reasonably replicating the current progress. However, since the pandemic is an ongoing dynamic phenomenon, the reported results are subjected to regular updates in consonance with the acquired real data.


id: cord-269114-mdsiv6tr
author: Pattabiraman, C.
date: 2020-07-11
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url: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.10.20150045
doi: 10.1101/2020.07.10.20150045
summary:
  A comprehensive study of circulating variants of the virus in Iceland, which included over 580 complete genomes in combination with epidemiological information (travel history and contact tracing) revealed that while the initial importation of the virus was from China and Southeast Asia subsequent importations were from different parts of Europe 8 . While these studies have added valuable information on circulating lineages of SARS-CoV-2 in India, they have not comprehensively linked genomic data with epidemiological information. Here we report 47 full-length SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences obtained from individuals who tested positive for the virus by RT-PCR and present an analysis of epidemiological information combined with genomic data to elucidate the introduction and spread of the virus in the state. The data from this study using a combination of genomic epidemiology and contact tracing provides evidence for multiple introductions of the virus into the state, with sustained local transmission.

title:
  Genomic epidemiology reveals multiple introductions and spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the Indian state of Karnataka

abstract:
  Karnataka, a state in south India, reported its first case of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) on March 8, 2020, more than a month after the first case was reported in India. We used a combination of contact tracing and genomic epidemiology to trace the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the state up until May 21, 2020 (1578 cases). We obtained 47 full genomes of SARS-CoV-2 which clustered into six lineages (Pangolin lineages-A, B, B.1, B.1.1, B.4, and B.6). The lineages in Karnataka were known to be circulating in China, Southeast Asia, Iran, Europe and other parts of India and are likely to have been imported into the state both by international and domestic travel. Our sequences grouped into 12 contact clusters and 11 cases with no known contacts. We found nine of the 12 contact clusters had a single lineage of the virus, consistent with multiple introductions and most (8/12) were contained within a single district, consistent with local spread. In most of the twelve clusters, the index case (9/12) and spreaders (8/12) were symptomatic. Of the 47 sequences, 31 belonged to the B/B.6 lineage, including seven of eleven cases with no known contact, this is consistent with the ongoing transmission of this lineage in the state. Genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in Karnataka is consistent with multiple introductions of the virus followed by local transmission in parallel with ongoing viral evolution. This is the first study from India combining genomic data with epidemiological information emphasizing the need for an integrated approach to outbreak response.


id: cord-270659-e1c6zubo
author: Pinder, Adrian C.
date: 2020-06-19
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32834706/
doi: 10.1002/aqc.3416
abstract: nan
title:
  COVID‐19 and biodiversity: The paradox of cleaner rivers and elevated extinction risk to iconic fish species


id: cord-271171-tohbzenc
title: Corona Epidemic in Indian context: Predictive Mathematical Modelling
author: Bhola, J.
date: 2020-04-07
url: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.03.20047175
doi: 10.1101/2020.04.03.20047175
abstract:
  The novel Coronavirus pathogen Covid-19 is a cause of concern across the world as the human-to-human infection caused by it is spreading at a fast pace. The virus that first manifested in Wuhan, China has travelled across continents. The increase in number of deaths in Italy, Iran, USA, and other countries has alarmed both the developed and developing countries. Scientists are working hard to develop a vaccine against the virus, but until now no breakthrough has been achieved. India, the second most populated country in the world, is working hard in all dimensions to stop the spread of community infection. Health care facilities are being updated; medical and paramedical staffs are getting trained, and many agencies are raising awareness on the issues related to this virus and its transmission. The administration is leaving no stone unturned to prepare the country to mitigate the adverse effects. However, as the number of infected patients, and those getting cured is changing differently in different states everyday it is difficult to predict the spread of the virus and its fate in Indian context. Different states have adopted measures to stop the community spread. Considering the vast size of the country, the population size and other socio-economic conditions of the states, a single uniform policy may not work to contain the disease. In this paper, we discuss a predictive mathematical model that can give us some idea of the fate of the virus, an indicative data and future projections to understand the further course this pandemic can take. The data can be used by the health care agencies, the Government Organizations and the Planning Commission to make suitable arrangements to fight the pandemic. Though the model is preliminary, it can be used at regional level to manage the health care system in the present scenario. The recommendations can be made, and advisories prepared based on the predictive results that can be implemented at regional levels.


id: cord-271962-7iee70jc
title: Spread of COVID-19 in India: A Simple Algebraic Study
author: Roy, S.
date: 2020-05-14
url: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.10.20097691
doi: 10.1101/2020.05.10.20097691
abstract:
  The number of patients, infected with COVID-19, began to increase very rapidly in India from March 2020. The country was put under lockdown from 25 March 2020. The present study is aimed at providing a simple algebraic analysis of the trend that is evident in the spread of the disease in this part of the world. The purpose of this algebraic approach is to simplify the calculation sufficiently by deviating from the standard techniques that are conventionally used to construct mathematical models of epidemics. The predictions, obtained from this algebraic study, are found to be in reasonable agreement with the recorded data. Using this mathematical formulation we have determined the time variation of the number of asymptomatic patients, who are believed to play a major role in spreading the disease. We have discussed the effect of lockdown in reducing the rate of transmission of the disease. On the basis of the proposed models, predictions have been made regarding the possible trend of the rise in the number of cases beyond the withdrawal of lockdown. All these things have been calculated by using very simple mathematical expressions which can be easily understood and used by those who have a rudimentary knowledge of algebra.


id: cord-274456-rzrfkkci
title: Monetary policy framework in India
author: Dua, Pami
date: 2020-06-23
url: https://doi.org/10.1007/s41775-020-00085-3
doi: 10.1007/s41775-020-00085-3
abstract:
  In 2016, the monetary policy framework moved towards flexible inflation targeting and a six member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) was constituted for setting the policy rate. With this step towards modernization of the monetary policy process, India joined the set of countries that have adopted inflation targeting as their monetary policy framework. The Consumer Price Index (CPI combined) inflation target was set by the Government of India at 4% with ± 2% tolerance band for the period from August 5, 2016 to March 31, 2021. In this backdrop, the paper reviews the evolution of monetary policy frameworks in India since the mid-1980s. It also describes the monetary policy transmission process and its limitations in terms of lags and rigidities. It highlights the importance of unconventional monetary policy measures in supplementing conventional tools especially during the easing cycle. Further, it examines the voting pattern of the MPC in India and compares this with that of various developed and emerging economies. The synchronization of cuts in the policy rate by MPCs of various countries during the global slowdown in 2019 and the COVID-19 pandemic in the early 2020s is also analysed.


id: cord-274503-9ccgcrvd
title: Impact of COVID-19 on General Surgical Practice in India
author: Nasta, Amrit Manik
date: 2020-06-26
url: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12262-020-02443-0
doi: 10.1007/s12262-020-02443-0
abstract:
  The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is a global health crisis, and surgeons are at increased occupational risk of contracting COVID-19. The impact of the disease on prevalent general surgical practice is uncertain and continues to evolve. The study aimed to study the impact of COVID-19 on general surgical practice in India and the future implications of the pandemic. A survey questionnaire was designed and electronically circulated 1 month after India entered a national lockdown during COVID-19 pandemic, amongst members of Indian Association of Gastro-intestinal Endo-surgeons (IAGES), a surgical association with nearly eight thousand members from across the country. Survey questions pertaining to pre-COVID era surgical practices, impact on current practice, and financial implications were asked. Responses were collected and statistically analyzed. One hundred fifty-three surgeons completed the survey, of which only 9.2% were women. Majority (41%) were into practice for more than 20 years; 36.6% were into private practice at multiple hospitals (free-lancers). Amongst the respondents, 41.8% had mainly laparoscopic practice with mean outpatient consultation of 26 patients/day and elective surgeries of 43 cases/month prior to lockdown. Post-lockdown, daily outpatient consults reduced to 4 patients per day, and 77% had not performed a single elective procedure. Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) chemoprophylaxis was reported by 52% surgeons. Personal protective equipment (PPE) was used by 52% for all cases, while 71.5% stated there are insufficient guidelines for future surgical practice in terms of safety. A drop of more than 75% of their monthly income was experienced by 52% surgeons, while 22% faced 50–75% reduction. One third (33%) of respondents own a hospital and are expecting a monthly financial liability of 2.25 million rupees (nearly 30,000 US dollars). COVID-19 has led to a drastic reduction in outpatient and elective surgical practices. There is a definite need for guidelines regarding safety for future surgical practices and solutions to overcome the financial liabilities in the near future.


id: cord-274694-kdsv7v8e
title: The Kerala Model in the time of COVID19: rethinking State, Society and Democracy
author: Chathukulam, Jos
date: 2020-09-23
url: https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/pii/S0305750X2030334X
doi: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105207
abstract:
  Kerala, a small state in South India, has been celebrated as a development model by scholars across the world for its exemplary achievements in human development and poverty reduction despite relatively low GDP growth. It was no surprise, then, that the Covid 19 pandemic that hit Kerala before any other part of India, became a test case for the Kerala model in dealing with such a crisis. Kerala was lauded across the world once again as a success story in containing this unprecedented pandemic, in treating those infected, and in making needed provisions for those adversely affected by the lockdown. But as it turned out, this celebration was premature as Kerala soon faced a third wave of Covid 19 infections. The objective of this paper is to examine Kerala’s trajectory in achieving the success and then confronting the unanticipated reversal. It will examine the legacy of the Kerala model such as robust and decentralized institutions and provisions for healthcare, welfare and safety nets, and especially the capacity of a democratic state working in synergy with civil society and enjoying a high degree of consensus and public trust. It will then examine the new surge of the virus and attempts to establish if this was due to any mistakes made by the state or some deficits in its model of “public action” that includes adversarial politics having a disruptive tenor about it. We will conclude by arguing that the Kerala model is still relevant, and that it is still a model in motion.


id: cord-274849-awv8sp8m
title: COVID-19 and mortality in doctors
author: Iyengar, Karthikeyan P.
date: 2020-09-03
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32920494/
doi: 10.1016/j.dsx.2020.09.003
abstract:
  BACKGROUND AND AIMS: COVID-19 disease appear to have been associated with significant mortality amongst doctors and health care workers globally. We explore the various risk factors associated with this occupational risk, especially focusing on India. This may elucidate lessons to protect these frontline workers during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: We carried out a comprehensive review of the literature using suitable keywords such as ‘COVID-19’, ‘pandemics’, ‘physicians’ ‘mortality’ and ‘health personnel’ on the search engines of PubMed, SCOPUS, Google Scholar and ResearchGate in the month of July 2020 during the current COVID-19 pandemic and assessed mortality data. RESULTS: Mortality in health care professionals has been on the rise. The countries which faced the pandemic in the early months of 2020 have had a huge surge in mortality amongst doctors due to COVID-19. India continues to show a rising trend in COVID-19 cases, however although compared to the western world India has seen a comparatively favourable statistic. Male gender, elderly doctors and those belonging to Black, Asian, and Minority Ethnic (BAME) community seem to be predisposing factors in the western world. CONCLUSION: COVID-19 has been associated with an increased mortality in doctors and health care workers. Until an effective cure/vaccine is developed, risk assessments at work, mitigating confounding factors, adequate supply of personal protective equipment (PPE) and enhanced protection against infection are necessary to protect health care professionals on the coronavirus frontline. Otherwise this occupational risk can lead to further untimely mortality and become another unintended consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic.


id: cord-276052-gk6n8slx
title: Isolation of Tioman virus from Pteropus giganteus bat in North-East region of India
author: Yadav, Pragya
date: 2016-09-09
txt: ./txt/cord-276052-gk6n8slx.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-276052-gk6n8slx.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/pii/S1567134816303926
doi: 10.1016/j.meegid.2016.09.010
summary:
  During the survey for Nipah virus among bats at North-East region of India; Tioman virus (TioV), a new member of the Paramyxoviridae family was isolated from tissues of Pteropus giganteus bats for the first time in India. While investigating NiV in urine samples of giant fruit bats of the Pteropus genus on Tioman Island, Malaysia, in 2001, researchers isolated a novel virus which was placed in the Rubulavirus genus of the Paramyxoviridae family. In order to study susceptibility of different vertebrate cells to TioV, the infectious virus titer was determined by estimating 50% tissue culture infective dose (TCID 50 ) using Reed and Muench method (Reed and Muench, 1938) . Negative contrast electron microscopy of the cell supernatant of Vero CCL-81 infected with virus isolate showed the presence of virus particles with the typical paramyxovirus morphology. TioV isolated from kidney tissue homogenate of bat showed a titer of 10 4.61 /100 μL by TCID 50 in Vero CCL-81 cell line.

abstract:
  Bat-borne viral diseases are a major public health concern among newly emerging infectious diseases which includes severe acute respiratory syndrome, Nipah, Marburg and Ebola virus disease. During the survey for Nipah virus among bats at North-East region of India; Tioman virus (TioV), a new member of the Paramyxoviridae family was isolated from tissues of Pteropus giganteus bats for the first time in India. This isolate was identified and confirmed by RT-PCR, sequence analysis and electron microscopy. A range of vertebrate cell lines were shown to be susceptible to Tioman virus. Negative electron microscopy study revealed the “herringbone” morphology of the nucleocapsid filaments and enveloped particles with distinct envelope projections a characteristic of the Paramyxoviridae family. Sequence analysis of Nucleocapsid gene of TioV demonstrated sequence identity of 99.87% and 99.99% nucleotide and amino acid respectively with of TioV strain isolated in Malaysia, 2001. This report demonstrates the first isolation of Tioman virus from a region where Nipah virus activity has been noticed in the past and recent years. Bat-borne viruses have become serious concern world-wide. A Survey of bats for novel viruses in this region would help in recognizing emerging viruses and combating diseases caused by them.


id: cord-276237-zqtjjyoq
title: COVID-19 and State Failure: A Double Whammy for Trade Unions and Labour Rights
author: Sundar, K. R. Shyam
date: 2020-09-14
txt: ./txt/cord-276237-zqtjjyoq.txt
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url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32952324/
doi: 10.1007/s41027-020-00263-0
abstract: nan
summary:
  The CTUs and their allies have among other things(a) demanded multiple welfare measures including direct benefit transfer to non-taxpaying workers, enhanced pension, payment of cash and other forms of assistance to workers from their welfare boards, wide-covering fiscal reliefs, food security (including universal PDS), and protective health gear to and safety for the frontline workers, (b) protested against the labour market incidents noted above and provided concrete instances to support their claims, (c) expressed concern at the high and rising unemployment, (d) supported the "industry" their demands for subsidies, and (e) asked for dialogue with them. Their major demands are: reliefs to surviving migrant workers and compensation to their families, free ration, Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT) of 7500, enhanced pension of 3000 to all non-income tax paying workers for six months, Aadhar-linked smart cards to all workers, withdraw the proposed privatisation measures and labour law changes, rise in MGNREGA wage to ₹500 per day, recovery of loans from wilful defaulters, increased budgetary allocation to the health, education, care and agriculture sectors, a fund for social security for unorganised workers, urban employment assurance scheme, protection for frontline workers, etc.


id: cord-276896-14zq3tln
author: Vaz, Manjulika
date: 2020-10-21
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33085005/
doi: 10.1007/s40592-020-00121-1
title:
  Public perceptions on Controlled Human Infection Model (CHIM) studies—a qualitative pilot study from South India

abstract:
  Research using Controlled Human Infection Models is yet to be attempted in India. This study was conducted to understand the perceptions of the lay public and key opinion makers prior to the possible introduction of such studies in the country. 110 respondents from urban and rural Bangalore district were interviewed using qualitative research methods of Focus Group Discussions and In-depth Interviews. The data was analyzed using grounded theory. Safety was a key concern of the lay public, expressed in terms of fear of death. The notion of infecting a healthy volunteer, the possibility of continued effects beyond the study duration and the likelihood of vulnerable populations volunteering solely for monetary benefit, were ethical concerns. Public good outcomes such as effective treatments, targeted vaccines and prevention of diseases was necessary justification for such studies. However, the comprehension of this benefit was not clear among non-medical, non-technical respondents and suggestions to seek alternatives to CHIMs repeatedly arose. There was a great deal of deflection—with each constituency feeling that people other than themselves may be ideally suited as participants. Risk takers, those without dependents, the more health and research literate, financially sound and those with an altruistic bent of mind emerged as possible CHIM volunteers. While widespread awareness and advocacy about CHIM is essential, listening to plural voices is the first step in public engagement in ethically contentious areas. Continued engagement and inclusive deliberative processes are required to redeem the mistrust of the public in research and rebuild faith in regulatory systems.


id: cord-277123-ekaqbruo
title: The COVID-19 mortality effects of underlying health conditions in India: a modelling study
author: Novosad, P.
date: 2020-07-08
url: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.05.20140343
doi: 10.1101/2020.07.05.20140343
abstract:
  Objective: To model how known COVID-19 comorbidities will affect mortality rates and the age distribution of mortality in a large lower middle income country (India), as compared with a high income country (England), and to identify which health conditions drive any differences. Design: Modelling study. Setting: England and India. Participants: 1,375,548 respondents aged 18 to 99 to the District Level Household Survey-4 and Annual Health Survey in India. Additional information on health condition prevalence on individuals aged 18 to 99 was obtained from the Health Survey for England and the Global Burden of Diseases, Risk Factors, and Injuries Studies (GBD). Main outcome measures: The primary outcome was the proportional increase in age-specific mortality in each country due to the prevalence of each COVID-19 mortality risk factor (diabetes, hypertension, obesity, chronic heart disease, respiratory illness, kidney disease, liver disease, and cancer, among others). The combined change in overall mortality and the share of deaths under 60 from the combination of risk factors was estimated in each country. Results: Relative to England, Indians have higher rates of diabetes (10.6% vs. 8.5%), chronic respiratory disease (4.8% vs. 2.5%), and kidney disease (9.7% vs. 5.6%), and lower rates of obesity (4.4% vs. 27.9%), chronic heart disease (4.4% vs. 5.9%), and cancer (0.3% vs. 2.8%). Population COVID-19 mortality in India relative to England is most increased by diabetes (+5.4%) and chronic respiratory disease (+2.3%), and most reduced by obesity (-9.7%), cancer (-3.2%), and chronic heart disease (-1.9%). Overall, comorbidities lower mortality in India relative to England by 9.7%. Accounting for demographics and population health explains a third of the difference in share of deaths under age 60 between the two countries. Conclusions: Known COVID-19 health risk factors are not expected to have a large effect on aggregate mortality or its age distribution in India relative to England. The high share of COVID-19 deaths from people under 60 in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) remains unexplained. Understanding mortality risk associated with health conditions prevalent in LMICs, such as malnutrition and HIV/AIDS, is essential for understanding differential mortality. Keywords: COVID-19, India, low- and middle-income countries, comorbidity


id: cord-278379-wr8j6j36
title: MGNREGA in the Times of COVID-19 and Beyond: Can India do More with Less?
author: Vasudevan, Gayathri
date: 2020-09-08
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32921943/
doi: 10.1007/s41027-020-00247-0
abstract:
  Covid-19 has ushered in a renewed focus on health, sanitisation and, in unexpected ways, on the need for productive employment opportunities in rural India. MGNREGA, the rural employment guarantee programme, has had a mixed track record in terms of providing adequate employment to those who need it the most, the quality of asset creation and adequacy of wages offered. This paper makes a case for reorienting a small portion of MGNREGA spending to create micro-entrepreneurs out of the ‘reverse migrating’ masons, electricians, plumbers and others in rural areas who can directly contribute to augmenting health and sanitization infrastructure in the likely new normal. This will provide relief to those whose livelihoods have been severely impacted and eventually lower dependence on public finances. We propose approval of a new work type for sanitization works without any hard asset creation under MGNREGA and roping in the private sector for its project management skills to quickly skill up the returning migrants as well as to match work with workers on an ongoing basis.


id: cord-279180-xad53zht
author: Kumaravel, Santhosh Kumar
date: 2020-08-17
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32821645/
doi: 10.1007/s13205-020-02382-3
title:
  Investigation on the impacts of COVID-19 quarantine on society and environment: Preventive measures and supportive technologies

abstract:
  The present outbreak of the novel coronavirus SARS‐CoV‐2, epicentered in China in December 2019, has spread to many other countries. The entire humanity has a vital responsibility to tackle this pandemic and the technologies are being helpful to them to a greater extent. The purpose of the work is to precisely bring scientific and general awareness to the people all around the world who are currently fighting the war against COVID-19. It's visible that the number of people infected is increasing day by day and the medical community is tirelessly working to maintain the situation under control. Other than the negative effects caused by COVID-19, it is also equally important for the public to understand some of the positive impacts it has directly or indirectly given to society. This work emphasizes the various impacts that are created on society as well as the environment. As a special additive, some important key areas are highlighted namely, how the modernized technologies are aiding the people during the period of social distancing. Some effective technological implications carried out by both information technology and educational institutions are highlighted. There are also several steps taken by the state government and central government in each country in adopting the complete lockdown rule. These steps are taken primarily to prevent the people from COVID-19 impact. Moreover, the teachings we need to learn from the quarantine situation created to prevent further spread of this global pandemic is discussed in brief and the importance of carrying them to the future. Finally, the paper also elucidates the general preventive measures that have to be taken to prevent this deadly coronavirus, and the role of technology in this pandemic situation has also been discussed. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s13205-020-02382-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.


id: cord-280975-9hgtvm6d
title: Modeling and forecasting the COVID-19 pandemic in India
author: Sarkar, Kankan
date: 2020-06-28
url: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.07071v1.pdf
doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110049
abstract:
  In India, 1,00,340 confirmed cases and 3,155 confirmed deaths due to COVID-19 were reported as of May 18, 2020. Due to absence of specific vaccine or therapy, non-pharmacological interventions including social distancing, contact tracing are essential to end the worldwide COVID-19. We propose a mathematical model that predicts the dynamics of COVID-19 in 17 provinces of India and the overall India. A complete scenario is given to demonstrate the estimated pandemic life cycle along with the real data or history to date, which in turn divulges the predicted inflection point and ending phase of SARS-CoV-2. The proposed model monitors the dynamics of six compartments, namely susceptible (S), asymptomatic (A), recovered (R), infected (I), isolated infected (I(q)) and quarantined susceptible (S(q)), collectively expressed SARII(q)S(q). A sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine the robustness of model predictions to parameter values and the sensitive parameters are estimated from the real data on the COVID-19 pandemic in India. Our results reveal that achieving a reduction in the contact rate between uninfected and infected individuals by quarantined the susceptible individuals, can effectively reduce the basic reproduction number. Our model simulations demonstrate that the elimination of ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is possible by combining the restrictive social distancing and contact tracing. Our predictions are based on real data with reasonable assumptions, whereas the accurate course of epidemic heavily depends on how and when quarantine, isolation and precautionary measures are enforced.


id: cord-282275-catapr59
title: The COVID-19 Spread Patterns in Italy and India: A Comparison of the Current Situations
author: Baruah, H. K.
date: 2020-06-23
txt: ./txt/cord-282275-catapr59.txt
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mime: text/plain
url: http://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.06.21.20136630v1?rss=1
doi: 10.1101/2020.06.21.20136630
summary:
  Time series models using the auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) method have also been used successfully by a few authors for forecasting the COVID-19 spread in India. We would show how the logarithmic function is being followed by the total number of cases in Italy, and how in India it is following a nearly exponential function, while the patterns are changing slowly and steadily. fits the data of spread in India [12] approximately.To estimate the value of the parameter b at some point of time we would need data about the total number of cases for a few days prior to that. This shows that a study regarding the total number of cases in the world as a whole cannot follow one single mathematical model, because whereas in India the spread pattern is continuing to be nearly exponential, in Italy it is the inverse function -the logarithmic functionbeing followed by the data.

abstract:
  Epidemiological mathematical models and time series models can be used to forecast about the spread of an infectious disease. In this article, without using such models, we are going to show how exactly the pattern evolves day by day once a pattern is seen to be approximately followed by the data. Although in Italy as well as in India the novel corona virus appeared on the same day, in Italy the spread is nearly logarithmic by now and in India it is nearly exponential even now.


id: cord-282592-3im1l78y
author: Ratta, Barkha
date: 2013-09-12
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24026447/
doi: 10.1007/s00284-013-0448-9
title:
  Microarray Chip Based Identification of a Mixed Infection of Bovine Herpesvirus 1 and Bovine Viral Diarrhea 2 From Indian Cattle

abstract:
  Bovine herpesvirus 1 (BHV1) and bovine viral diarrhea virus 2 (BVD2) are endemic in India although no mixed infection with these viruses has been reported from India. We report first mixed infection of these viruses in cattle during routine screening with a microarray chip. 62 of the 69 probes of BHV1 and 42 of the 57 BVD2 probes in the chip gave positive signals for the virus. The virus infections were subsequently confirmed by RT-PCR. We also discuss the implications of these findings.


id: cord-282633-q7egnpaq
title: COVID‐19: Assessment of knowledge and awareness in Indian society
author: Singh, Ashish Kumar
date: 2020-08-27
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32904779/
doi: 10.1002/pa.2354
abstract:
  COVID‐19, which was initiated regionally at Wuhan of China, has become a global pandemic by infecting people of almost all the world. Human civilizations are facing threat for their survival and livelihood. No country are getting any substantial relief and solution from this pandemic rather to convince their citizens to make aware and taking precaution by changing their living style. In view of this, this study attempted to assess the awareness, threat, symptoms and its prevention among people of India about the COVID‐19. A total of 522 responses from all over India were received. The respondents have adequate awareness for COVID‐19 outbreak and its preventive measures, out of total, 98% (513) answered that the virus spreads from one person to another, 95% (494) answered that the disease is caused by a virus. Peoples understand the importance of social distancing and other preventive measures prescribed by the government with good attitude for coronavirus. Peoples are following trusted sources for corona information, having confidence to defeat disease but showed their concern for corona threat, are aware about the virus, its common symptoms and prevention, govt. testing and medical facilities. Principal component analysis was used to identify the latent dimensions regarding people's preventive measures and was found that they are majorly adopting three methods, that is, lockdown, naturopathy and social distancing. This study will help government and peoples to understand and handle this coronavirus pandemic effectively and in prevention of COVID‐19, which is crucial for the awareness of society in coming time.


id: cord-282977-kmj8hj78
title: Battle with COVID-19 Under Partial to Zero Lockdowns in India
author: Babbar, S.
date: 2020-07-04
txt: ./txt/cord-282977-kmj8hj78.txt
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mime: text/plain
url: http://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.07.03.20145664v1?rss=1
doi: 10.1101/2020.07.03.20145664
summary:
  Instead of fixing parameters of the standard SEIR model before simulation, we propose to learn them from the real data set consisting of progression of Corona spread in India. The learning of model is carefully designed by understanding that available data set consist of records of cases under full, partial to zero lockdown phases in India. These two predictions presented in this work provide awareness among citizens of India on importance of control measures such as full, partial and zero lockdown and the spread of Corona disease infection rate. The key motivation to integrate two methods for the predictive task is to use benefits of SEIR model by making its key parameters learn using historical data of confirmed cases under full and partial to zero lockdowns in India. Figures 5 and 6 represents fitting of learned model over actual new cases of Coronavirus data set of India and Delhi respectively.

abstract:
  The cumulative records of COVID-19 are rapidly increasing day by day in India. The key question prevailing in minds of all is when will it get over? There have been several attempts in literature to address this question using time series, Machine learning, epidemiological and statistical models. However due to high level of uncertainty in the domain and lack of big historical data, the performance of these models suffer. In this work, we present an intuitive model that uses a combination of epidemiological model (SEIR) and mathematical curve fitting method to forecast spread of COVID-19 in India in future. By using the combination model, we get characteristics benefits of these models under limited knowledge and historical data about the novel Coronavirus. Instead of fixing parameters of the standard SEIR model before simulation, we propose to learn them from the real data set consisting of progression of Corona spread in India. The learning of model is carefully designed by understanding that available data set consist of records of cases under full, partial to zero lockdown phases in India. Hence, we make two separate predictions by our propose model. One under the situation of full lockdown in India and, other with partial to zero restrictions in India. With continued strict lockdown after May 03, 2020, our model predicted May 14, 2020 as the date of peak of Coronavirus in India. However, in current scenario of partial to zero lockdown phase in India, the peak of Coronavirus cases is predicted to be July 31, 2020. These two predictions presented in this work provide awareness among citizens of India on importance of control measures such as full, partial and zero lockdown and the spread of Corona disease infection rate. In addition to this, it is a beneficial study for the government of India to plan the things ahead.


id: cord-283708-k9hquon7
title: The potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis: a modelling analysis
author: Cilloni, L.
date: 2020-05-20
url: http://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.05.16.20104075v1?rss=1
doi: 10.1101/2020.05.16.20104075
abstract:
  Background Routine services for tuberculosis (TB) are being disrupted by stringent lockdowns against the novel SARS-CoV-2 virus. We sought to estimate the potential long-term epidemiological impact of such disruptions on TB burden in high-burden countries, and how this negative impact could be mitigated. Methods We adapted mathematical models of TB transmission in three high-burden countries (India, Kenya and Ukraine) to incorporate lockdown-associated disruptions in the TB care cascade. The anticipated level of disruption reflected consensus from a rapid expert consultation. We modelled the impact of these disruptions on TB incidence and mortality over the next five years, and also considered potential interventions to curtail this impact. Results Even temporary disruptions can cause long-term increases in TB incidence and mortality. We estimated that a 3-month lockdown, followed by 10 months to restore normal TB services, would cause, over the next 5 years, an additional 1.92 million TB cases (Crl 1.74 - 2.15) and 488,000 TB deaths (CrI 449 - 541 thousand) in India, 48,000 (33,400 - 72,320) TB cases and 16,800 deaths (11.9 - 21.9 thousand) in Kenya, and 9,100 (6,980 - 11,200) cases and 1,960 deaths (1,620 - 2,350) in Ukraine. However, any such negative impacts could be averted through supplementary 'catch-up' TB case detection and treatment, once restrictions are eased. Interpretation Lockdown-related disruptions can cause long-lasting increases in TB burden, but these negative effects can be mitigated with targeted interventions implemented rapidly once lockdowns are lifted.


id: cord-283953-vuvd6mvz
title: Trace, Quarantine, Test, Isolate and Treat: A Kerala Model of Covid-19 Response
author: KM, S.
date: 2020-06-19
txt: ./txt/cord-283953-vuvd6mvz.txt
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mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.15.20132308
doi: 10.1101/2020.06.15.20132308
summary:
  Importation and transmission-based approach for Testing Strategy On January 26th 2020, even before the first case of COVID-19 was reported in the state (9). The state moved fast because of that by mid-January it had already put in place a strategy to isolate people who showed symptoms in hospitals, to trace their contacts and put them in-home quarantine. At the beginning (first phase lockdown) one active case per 34 tests reported (Fig 5) due to the formidable step was taken by the government. High risk people who were in contact with the positive cases were tracked, and kept in quarantine helped in optimal utilization of the Covid-19 treatment kits. . Figure 6 shows the number of people isolated per one active COVID-19 case in a different phase of lockdown in Kerala. . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.15.20132308 doi: medRxiv preprint Figure 7 shows the percentage of people in home isolation in different phases of lockdown in Kerala.

abstract:
  Kerala reported the first three cases of coronavirus in India in late January. Kerala, one of Indias most densely populated states, which makes its success in fighting the Covid-19 all the more commendable. Moreover, an estimated 17% of its 35 million population employed or lives elsewhere, more than 1 million tourists visit each year, and hundreds of students study abroad, including in China. All of this mobility makes the state more vulnerable to contagious outbreaks. What is the strategy behind the success story? This paper compares the situation of COVID-19 pandemic in major states and Kerala by the different phase of lockdown, and also highlights Keralas fight against the pandemic. We used publicly available data from https://www.covid19india.org/ and Covid-19 Daily Bulletin (Jan 31-May 31), Directorate of Health Services, Kerala (https://dashboard.kerala.gov.in/). We calculate the phase-wise period prevalence rate (PPR) and the case fatality rate (CFR) of the last phase. Compared to other major states, Kerala showed better response in preventing pandemic. The equation for the Keralas success has been simple, prioritized testing, widespread contact tracing, and promoting social distance. They also imposed uncompromising controls, that were supported by an excellent healthcare system, government accountability, transparency, public trust, civil rights and importantly the decentralized governance and strong grass-root level institutions. The proactive measures taken by Kerala such as early detection of cases and extensive social support measures can be a model for India and the world. Keywords: Covid-19, Kerala, India, Testing, Tracing, Pandemic.


id: cord-284386-emh9feb3
title: Studying the progress of COVID-19 outbreak in India using SIRD model
author: Chatterjee, Saptarshi
date: 2020-06-23
url: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12648-020-01766-8
doi: 10.1007/s12648-020-01766-8
abstract:
  We explore a standard epidemiological model, known as the SIRD model, to study the COVID-19 infection in India, and a few other countries around the world. We use (a) the stable cumulative infection of various countries and (b) the number of infection versus the tests carried out to evaluate the model. The time-dependent infection rate is set in the model to obtain the best fit with the available data. The model is simulated aiming to project the probable features of the infection in India, various Indian states, and other countries. India imposed an early lockdown to contain the infection that can be treated by its healthcare system. We find that with the current infection rate and containment measures, the total active infection in India would be maximum at the end of June or beginning of July 2020. With proper containment measures in the infected zones and social distancing, the infection is expected to fall considerably from August. If the containment measures are relaxed before the arrival of the peak infection, more people from the susceptible population will fall sick as the infection is expected to see a threefold rise at the peak. If the relaxation is given a month after the peak infection, a second peak with a moderate infection will follow. However, a gradual relaxation of the lockdown started well ahead of the peak infection, leads to a nearly twofold increase of the peak infection with no second peak. The model is further extended to incorporate the infection arising from the population showing no symptoms. The preliminary finding suggests that random testing needs to be carried out within the asymptomatic population to contain the spread of the disease. Our model provides a semi-quantitative overview of the progression of COVID-19 in India, with model projections reasonably replicating the current progress. The projection of the model is highly sensitive to the choice of the parameters and the available data. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s12648-020-01766-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.


id: cord-284453-topozldw
title: Understanding Trend of the Covid-19 Fatalities in India
author: Dimri, V. P.
date: 2020-06-17
txt: ./txt/cord-284453-topozldw.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-284453-topozldw.txt
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mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12594-020-1492-2
doi: 10.1007/s12594-020-1492-2
abstract: nan
summary:
  In order to forecast the COVID-19 pandemic behavior in India, we first examined the total number of confirmed cases and the rate of daily increase in the number of cases reported in India ( Fig. 1a and b) . Note that the early segment of the curve is fitted with data, whereas the remaining segment is predicted based on the SIR model.This model assumes that it is a rational portrayal of the one-stage epidemic and represents the dynamic process of COVID-19 infections in a population over a specific time.Hence, the forecast is as good as data are. In this note, we have presented the analysis of short-term forecasting of COVID-19 infections in India based on SIR, quadratic and exponential approaches. Shows results from SIR model: (a) total number of predicted together with observed cases, and (b) number of COVID-19 cases per day in India.


id: cord-284583-urh0xk7r
title: Exceedances and trends of particulate matter (PM2.5) in five Indian megacities
author: Singh, Vikas
date: 2020-08-11
url: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969720349901?v=s5
doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141461
abstract:
  Abstract Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is the leading environmental risk factor that requires regular monitoring and analysis for effective air quality management. This work presents the variability, trend, and exceedance analysis of PM2.5 measured at US Embassy and Consulate in five Indian megacities (Chennai, Kolkata, Hyderabad, Mumbai, and New Delhi) for six years (2014–2019). Among all cities, Delhi is found to be the most polluted city followed by Kolkata, Mumbai, Hyderabad, and Chennai. The trend analysis for six years for five megacities suggests a statistically significant decreasing trend ranging from 1.5 to 4.19 μg/m3 (2%–8%) per year. Distinct diurnal, seasonal, and monthly variations are observed in the five cities due to the different site locations and local meteorology. All cities show the highest and lowest concentrations in the winter and monsoon months respectively except for Chennai which observed the lowest levels in April. All the cities consistently show morning peaks (~08: 00–10:00 h) and the lowest level in late afternoon hours (~15:00–16:00 h). We found that the PM2.5 levels in the cities exceed WHO standards and Indian NAAQS for 50% and 33% of days in a year except for Chennai. Delhi is found to have more than 200 days of exceedances in a year and experiences an average 15 number of episodes per year when the level exceeds the Indian NAAQS. The trends in the exceedance with a varying threshold (20–380 μg/m3) suggest that not only is the annual mean PM2.5 decreasing in Delhi but also the number of exceedances is decreasing. This decrease can be attributed to the recent policies and regulations implemented in Delhi and other cities for the abatement of air pollution. However, stricter compliance of the National Clean Air Program (NCAP) policies can further accelerate the reduction of the pollution levels.


id: cord-285205-k3vzcbca
author: Padhi, A.
date: 2020-06-08
url: http://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.06.06.20124024v1?rss=1
doi: 10.1101/2020.06.06.20124024
title:
  Studying the effect of lockdown using epidemiological modelling of COVID-19 and a quantum computational approach using the Ising spin interaction

abstract:
  COVID-19 is a respiratory tract infection that can range from being mild to fatal. In India, the countrywide lockdown has been imposed since 24th march, 2020, and has got multiple extensions with different guidelines for each phase. Among various models of epidemiology, we use the SIR(D) model to analyze the extent to which this multi-phased lockdown has been active in `flattening the curve' and lower the threat. Analyzing the effect of lockdown on the infection may give us a better insight into the evolution of epidemic while implementing the quarantine procedures as well as improving the healthcare facilities. For accurate modelling, incorporating various parameters along with sophisticated computational facilities, are required. Parallel to SIRD modelling, we tend to compare it with the Ising model and derive a quantum circuit that incorporates the rate of infection and rate of recovery, etc as its parameters. The probabilistic plots obtained from the circuit qualitatively resemble the shape of the curve for the spread of Coronavirus. We also demonstrate how the curve flattens when the lockdown is imposed. This kind of quantum computational approach can be useful in reducing space and time complexities of a huge amount of information related to the epidemic.


id: cord-285641-y5ianyqi
title: Nutritionally sensitive agriculture—an approach to reducing hidden hunger
author: Bamji, Mahtab S.
date: 2020-10-01
txt: ./txt/cord-285641-y5ianyqi.txt
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url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33004981/
doi: 10.1038/s41430-020-00760-x
summary:
  Studies done by the authors in the villages of Medak district, of the South Indian state of Telangana, show remarkable improvement in the knowledge of food, nutrition, hygiene and health of mothers with children under 3 years of age, with education–behavioural change communication. These findings are akin to those of the National Nutrition Monitoring Bureau surveys in India, which show that the cereal-based Indian diets are deficient in the consumption of micronutrient-rich foods like vegetables, fruits, legumes and animal products [3] . A recent study from the National Institute of Nutrition, Hyderabad, India, shows a high prevalence of vitamin deficiencies, particularly, vitamins A, B2, B6, B12, folic acid and vitamin D, assessed by subclinical status (blood values) and dietary intakes, in an apparently healthy urban adult population [4] . Hellen Keller International has supported an extensive programme of improved homestead gardens and backyard poultry in Bangladesh, Cambodia, Nepal and Philippines to increase the production and household availability of micronutrient-dense vegetables and fruits and eggs.

abstract:
  Cereal-based diets of the people in developing countries are qualitatively deficient in micronutrients—vitamins and minerals—due to low intake of vegetables, fruits, legumes and foods of animal origin. Consumption of nutritious millets has also come down in India. Calorie sufficiency may ensure protein sufficiency (though not protein quality), but it does not ensure adequacy of micronutrients. Studies in several countries in Asia, and India show that with education and advocacy even farmers with small and marginal land holdings can be persuaded to raise homestead vegetables and fruits gardens and increase household vegetables consumption. Backyard poultry also has good acceptance and impact on household egg consumption. For best results, the community, especially the mothers have to be educated about the importance of nutrition for health and wellbeing. Studies done by the authors in the villages of Medak district, of the South Indian state of Telangana, show remarkable improvement in the knowledge of food, nutrition, hygiene and health of mothers with children under 3 years of age, with education–behavioural change communication. Impact of nutrition gardens and backyard poultry with high egg-yielding breeds had positive impact on the household consumption of vegetables and eggs.


id: cord-286091-t41elb5w
author: Chanda, Arnab
date: 2020-10-23
txt: ./txt/cord-286091-t41elb5w.txt
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mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1017/s0950268820002411
doi: 10.1017/s0950268820002411
abstract: nan
summary:
  key: cord-286091-t41elb5w authors: Chanda, Arnab title: COVID-19 in India: transmission dynamics, epidemiological characteristics, testing, recovery and effect of weather – Corrigendum date: 2020-10-23 journal: Epidemiology and infection DOI: 10.1017/s0950268820002411 sha: doc_id: 286091 cord_uid: t41elb5w nan It has been brought to our attention that Figure 1B published in ''COVID-19 in India: transmission dynamics, epidemiological characteristics, testing, recovery and effect of weather'' showed an incorrect depiction of India''s international boundary. The figure has been corrected as follows: COVID-19 in India: transmission dynamics, epidemiological characteristics, testing, recovery and effect of weather

title:
  COVID-19 in India: transmission dynamics, epidemiological characteristics, testing, recovery and effect of weather – Corrigendum


id: cord-287362-dhl7ynrc
title: Infections and diabetes: Risks and mitigation with reference to India
author: Unnikrishnan, Ranjit
date: 2020-09-22
url: https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/pii/S187140212030374X
doi: 10.1016/j.dsx.2020.09.022
abstract:
  BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The link between diabetes and increased risk of infectious disease has long been recognized, but has re-entered sharp focus following the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: A literature search was conducted in PubMed for articles in English on diabetes and infection. RESULTS: Diabetes predisposes to infections through alterations in innate and acquired immune defenses. Outcomes of infection are worse in people with uncontrolled diabetes, and infection can worsen hyperglycemia in hitherto well controlled diabetes (bidirectional relationship). Diabetes does not increase the risk of infection with COVID-19 per se, but predisposes to severe disease and poor outcomes. COVID-19 has also been linked to deterioration of glycemic control as well as new-onset diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: Clinicians caring for people with diabetes should be aware of the increased risk of infections in this population, as well as the possibility of worsening hyperglycemia. A holistic approach with frequent monitoring of blood glucose levels and appropriate titration of medications, along with close attention to nutritional status, is essential to ensure the best possible outcomes.


id: cord-288703-wdh1jiry
title: A Call to Introduce Structured Zika Surveillance in India
author: Ishtiaq, Farah
date: 2017-11-15
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29153262/
doi: 10.1016/j.pt.2017.10.008
abstract:
  India has the climatic conditions conducive to year-round transmission of Zika virus, and a structured disease surveillance program should be implemented to prevent an outbreak. Such a program should (i) start screening before an outbreak arises; (ii) collect baseline data to assess future disease risk and monitor potential birth defects; and (iii) provide new insights into the ecology of the disease and inform public health policy following the one health concept.


id: cord-288770-hquc2v2c
title: A Comprehensive Analysis of COVID-19 Outbreak situation in India
author: Gupta, Rajan
date: 2020-04-11
url: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.08.20058347
doi: 10.1101/2020.04.08.20058347
abstract:
  The outbreak of COVID-19 in different parts of the world is a major concern for all the administrative units of respective countries. India is also facing this very tough task for controlling the virus outbreak and has managed its growth rate through some strict measures. This study presents the current situation of coronavirus spread in India along with the impact of various measures taken for it. With the help of data sources (till 7th-8th April 2020) from various state units of India and Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India, this study presents various trends and patterns. This study answers six different research ques-tions in a comprehensive manner. It has been reported that growth rate of infected cases has been controlled with the help of National Lockdown, however some uncontrolled mass level events had negatively impacted the infected cases. With the help of exponential and polyno-mial regression modelling, the predictions of up to 75000 cases have been done by the end of April 2020. It has also been seen that there are some prominent clusters and patient nodes in the network of patients which are the major influencers for COVID-19 spread. Also, death rate case predictions have been done through multi-class classification models with an accuracy of 75%. At the end, strategies for continuation for lockdown has been discussed and presented. It appears that only essential services should be open for the citizens of India and the national lockdown should be carried on for next 2-4 weeks. This study will be useful for the Government of India and various states of India, Administrative Units of India, Frontline health workforce of India, researchers and scientists. This study will also be favorable for the administrative units of other countries to consider various aspects related to the control of COVID-19 outspread in their respective regions.


id: cord-289917-2mxd7zxf
title: Modeling tempo of COVID‐19 pandemic in India and significance of lockdown
author: Singh, Brijesh P.
date: 2020-08-04
txt: ./txt/cord-289917-2mxd7zxf.txt
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url: https://doi.org/10.1002/pa.2257
doi: 10.1002/pa.2257
summary:
  A differential equation based simple model has been used to understand the pattern of COVID-19 in India and some states. Our findings suggest that the physical distancing and lockdown strategies implemented in India are successfully reducing the spread and that the tempo of pandemic growth has slowed in recent days. Our findings suggest that the physical distancing and lockdown strategies implemented in India are successfully reducing the spread and that the tempo of pandemic growth has slowed in recent days. Therefore, on March There are already various measures such as social distancing, lockdown masking and washing hand regularly has been implemented to prevent the spread of COVID-19, but in absence of particular medicine and vaccine it is very important to predict how the infection is likely to develop among the population that support prevention of the disease and aid in the preparation of healthcare service.

abstract:
  A very special type of pneumonic disease that generated the COVID‐19 pandemic was first identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019 and is spreading all over the world. The ongoing outbreak presents a challenge for data scientists to model COVID‐19, when the epidemiological characteristics of the COVID‐19 are yet to be fully explained. The uncertainty around the COVID‐19 with no vaccine and effective medicine available until today create additional pressure on the epidemiologists and policy makers. In such a crucial situation, it is very important to predict infected cases to support prevention of the disease and aid in the preparation of healthcare service. In this paper, we have tried to understand the spreading capability of COVID‐19 in India taking into account of the lockdown period. The numbers of confirmed cases are increased in India and states in the past few weeks. A differential equation based simple model has been used to understand the pattern of COVID‐19 in India and some states. Our findings suggest that the physical distancing and lockdown strategies implemented in India are successfully reducing the spread and that the tempo of pandemic growth has slowed in recent days.


id: cord-290687-kc7t1y5o
title: Susceptibility and Sustainability of India against CoVid19: a multivariate approach
author: Ray, Soumi
date: 2020-04-21
url: http://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.04.16.20066159v1?rss=1
doi: 10.1101/2020.04.16.20066159
abstract:
  Purpose: We are currently in the middle of a global crisis. Covid19 pandemic has suddenly threatened the existence of human life. Till date, as no medicine or vaccine is discovered, the best way to fight against this pandemic is prevention. The impact of different environmental, social, economic and health parameters is unknown and under research. It is important to identify the factors which can weaken the virus, and the nations which are more vulnerable to this virus. Materials and Methods: Data of weather, vaccination trends, life expectancy, lung disease, number of infected people in the pre-lockdown and post-lockdown period of highly infected nations are collected. These are extracted from authentic online resources and published reports. Analysis is done to find the possible impact of each parameter on CoVid19. Results: CoVid19 has no linear correlation with any of the selected parameters, though few parameters have depicted non-linear relationship in the graphs. Further investigations have shown better result for some parameters. A combination of the parameters results in a better correlation with infection rate. Conclusions: Though depending on the study outcome, the impact of CoVid19 in India can be predicted, the required lockdown period cannot be calculated due to data limitation.


id: cord-292045-pnid9dmq
author: Kumar, Manish
date: 2020-07-28
url: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141326
doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141326
title:
  First proof of the capability of wastewater surveillance for COVID-19 in India through detection of genetic material of SARS-CoV-2

abstract:
  Abstract We made the first ever successful effort in India to detect the genetic material of SARS-CoV-2 viruses to understand the capability and application of wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) surveillance in India. Sampling was carried out on 8 and 27 May 2020 at the Old Pirana Waste Water Treatment Plant (WWTP) at Ahmedabad, Gujarat that receives effluent from Civil Hospital treating COVID-19 patients. All three, i.e. ORF1ab, N and S genes of SARS-CoV-2, were found in the influent with no genes detected in effluent collected on 8 and 27 May 2020. Increase in SARS-CoV-2 genetic loading in the wastewater between 8 and 27 May 2020 samples concurred with corresponding increase in the number of active COVID-19 patients in the city. The number of gene copies was comparable to that reported in untreated wastewaters of Australia, China and Turkey and lower than that of the USA, France and Spain. However, temporal changes in SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations need to be substantiated further from the perspectives of daily and short-term changes of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater through long-term monitoring. The study results SARS-CoV-2 will assist concerned authorities and policymakers to formulate and/or upgrade COVID-19 surveillance to have a more explicit picture of the pandemic curve. While infectivity of SARS-CoV-2 through the excreted viral genetic material in the aquatic environment is still being debated, the presence and detection of genes in wastewater systems makes a strong case for the environmental surveillance of the COVID-19 pandemic.


id: cord-292485-vk5xy3zn
title: The adverse effect of COVID pandemic on the care of patients with kidney diseases in India
author: Prasad, Narayan
date: 2020-07-06
txt: ./txt/cord-292485-vk5xy3zn.txt
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url: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468024920313577?v=s5
doi: 10.1016/j.ekir.2020.06.034
summary:
  We aimed to analyze the effect of lockdown imposed due to COVID-19 pandemic on the care of patients with kidney diseases in India. METHODS: We surveyed 19 major hospitals (8 in public and 11 in private sector) to determine the effect of lockdown on the care of patients with kidney disease, including those on dialysis after the first 3 weeks of lockdown. CONCLUSION: Lack of preparedness before lockdown resulted in an interruption in health care services and posed an immediate adverse effect on the outcome of dialysis and kidney disease patients in India. This survey clearly demonstrates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown on the care of patients with kidney diseases in India, a low-middle income country. In many private hospitals, services were affected due to lockdown restrictions, lack of internal protocols to handle the pandemic, fear of infection to medical staff, and an unwillingness to risk the business from non-COVID patients (22).

abstract:
  INTRODUCTION: The Coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) pandemic has affected the care of patients with non-communicable diseases, including those suffering from kidney-related ailments. Many parts of the world, including India, adopted lockdown to curb community transmission of disease. The lockdown affected transportation, access to healthcare facilities, availability of medicines, and consumables as well as out and inpatient services. We aimed to analyze the effect of lockdown imposed due to COVID-19 pandemic on the care of patients with kidney diseases in India. METHODS: We surveyed 19 major hospitals (8 in public and 11 in private sector) to determine the effect of lockdown on the care of patients with kidney disease, including those on dialysis after the first 3 weeks of lockdown. RESULTS: The total number of dialysis patients in these centres came down from 2517 to 2404. About 710(28.2%) of patients missed one or more dialysis sessions, 69 (2.74%) required emergency dialysis sessions, 104 (4.13%) stopped reporting for dialysis, and 9 (0.36%) were confirmed to have died. Outpatient attendance in the surveyed hospital came down by 92.3%, and inpatient service reduced by 61%. Tele-consultation was started but accessed by only a small number of patients. CONCLUSION: Lack of preparedness before lockdown resulted in an interruption in health care services and posed an immediate adverse effect on the outcome of dialysis and kidney disease patients in India. The long-term impact on the health of patients with less severe forms of kidney disease remains unknown.


id: cord-292490-djp9onk5
author: Verma, V. R.
date: 2020-05-19
txt: ./txt/cord-292490-djp9onk5.txt
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mime: text/plain
url: http://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.05.14.20100537v1?rss=1
doi: 10.1101/2020.05.14.20100537
summary:
  Within a short span of time, a localized outbreak evolved into pandemic with three defining characteristics: a) Speed and Scale-the disease has spread quickly to all corners of the world, and its capacity for explosive spread has overwhelmed even the most resilient health systems b) Severity-Overall, 20% cases are severe or critical, with a crude clinical case fatality rate currently of over 3%, increasing in older age groups and in those with certain underlying conditions c) Societal and economic disruption-shocks to health and social care systems and measures taken to control transmission having deep socio-economic consequences (3) . Under case-3, where 10% of capacity in public facilities and 30% in private facilities is apportioned for COVID-19, and testing coverage is 200,000 per day with TTP of 5%, the estimated demand for severe and critical cases can only be met if supply of ICU beds and ventilators is increased by 8.4% and 2.6% before 27 th July 2020.

title:
  Projecting Demand-Supply Gap of Hospital Capacity in India in the face of COVID-19 pandemic using Age-Structured Deterministic SEIR model

abstract:
  BACKGROUND: Due to uncertainties encompassing the transmission dynamics of COVID-19, mathematical models informing the trajectory of disease are being proposed throughout the world. Current pandemic is also characterized by surge in hospitalizations which has overwhelmed even the most resilient health systems. Therefore, it is imperative to assess supply side preparedness in tandem with demand projections for comprehensive outlook. OBJECTIVE: Hence, we attempted this study to forecast the demand for hospital resources for one year period and correspondingly assessed capacity and tipping points of Indian health system to absorb surges in demand due to COVID-19. METHODS: We employed age- structured deterministic SEIR model and modified it to allow for testing and isolation capacity to forecast the demand under varying scenarios. Projections for documented cases were made for varying degree of mitigation strategies of a) No-lockdown b) Moderate-lockdown c) Full-lockdown. Correspondingly, data on a) General beds b) ICU beds and c) Ventilators was collated from various government records. Further, we computed the daily turnover of each of these resources which was then adjusted for proportion of cases requiring mild, severe and critical care to arrive at maximum number of COVID-19 cases manageable by health care system of India. FINDINGS: Our results revealed pervasive deficits in the capacity of public health system to absorb surge in demand during peak of epidemic. Also, continuing strict lockdown measures was found to be ineffective in suppressing total infections significantly, rather would only push the peak by a month. However, augmented testing of 500,000 tests per day during peak (mid-July) under moderate lockdown scenario would lead to more reported cases (5,500,000-6,000,000), leading to surge in demand for hospital resources. A minimum allocation of 10% public resources and 30% private resources would be required to commensurate with demand under that scenario. However, if the testing capacity is limited by 200,000 tests per day under same scenario, documented cases would plummet by half.


id: cord-294685-rhhx5gcg
title: Indian Publications on SARS-CoV-2: A Bibliometric Study of WHO COVID-19 Database
author: Vasantha Raju, N.
date: 2020-06-09
url: http://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.06.08.20125518v1?rss=1
doi: 10.1101/2020.06.08.20125518
abstract:
  Nowadays, the whole World is under threat of Coronavirus disease (COVID-19). The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in many fatalities and forced scientific communities to foster their Research and Development (R & D) activities. As a result, there is an enormous growth of scholarly literature on the subject. In order to combat this novel coronavirus, the open access to scientific literature is essential. On this line, many reputed academic institutions and publication firms have made their literature on COVID-19 accessible to all. By maintaining the database of updated information on global literature on Coronavirus disease, the World Health Organization (WHO) is playing a pivotal role. The present study analyzed 89 Indian publications on SARS-CoV-2 accessible through WHO COVID-19 database. The research data was restricted for the period of 2/3/2020 to 12/5/2020. The analysis was carried out in light of the objectives of the study. The study found the considerable and constant growth of Indian publications on COVID-19 from mid-April. It is interesting to note that the prolific authors belong to either AIIMS or ICMR institutes. Majority of the COVID-19 articles were found to be collaborative publications. The study noticed that no research publications on COVID-19 have appeared from North Eastern region. Regarding the research output on COVID-19, the performance of largest states like Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Bihar was found to be poor. Delhi state contributed highest publications on COVID-19. The All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS), New Delhi was the most productive institution in terms of publications. It is also important to note that the central government undertakings like AIIMS and ICMR, New Delhi and its affiliated institutions shared largest proportion of publications on COVID-19. The Indian Journal of Medical Research has emerged as the productive journal contributing highest number of the publications. The highest contribution in COVID-19 research takes the form of journal articles. In terms of research area, the majority of the publications were related to Epidemiology. The study reported covid, coronavirus, India, pandemic, sars etc. as the frequently occurred keywords in the COVID-19 publications. The highly cited publications were of evidenced based studies. It is observed that the studies pertaining to virology, diagnosis and treatment, clinical features etc. have received highest citations than general studies on epidemiology or pandemic


id: cord-295013-ew9n9i7z
title: Field-testing of primary health-care indicators, India
author: Nambiar, Devaki
date: 2020-11-01
txt: ./txt/cord-295013-ew9n9i7z.txt
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extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.2471/blt.19.249565
doi: 10.2471/blt.19.249565
summary:
  [34] [35] [36] Objective To develop a primary health-care monitoring framework and health outcome indicator list, and field-test and triangulate indicators designed to assess health reforms in Kerala, India, 2018-2019. [34] [35] [36] Objective To develop a primary health-care monitoring framework and health outcome indicator list, and field-test and triangulate indicators designed to assess health reforms in Kerala, India, 2018-2019. As already observed in India and other low-and middle-income countries, 29 our results indicate that any approach to improving or monitoring the quality of health-care must be adaptable to local methods of data production and reporting, while ensuring that emerging concerns of local staff are considered. The Every Newborn-BIRTH study was a triangulation of maternal and newborn healthcare data in low-and middle-income countries, 47 and some smaller-scale primary-care indicator triangulation exercises have been undertaken by India''s National Health Systems Resource Centre.

abstract:
  OBJECTIVE: To develop a primary health-care monitoring framework and health outcome indicator list, and field-test and triangulate indicators designed to assess health reforms in Kerala, India, 2018–2019. METHODS: We used a modified Delphi technique to develop a 23-item indicator list to monitor primary health care. We used a multistage cluster random sampling technique to select one district from each of four district clusters, and then select both a family and a primary health centre from each of the four districts. We field-tested and triangulated the indicators using facility data and a population-based household survey. FINDINGS: Our data revealed similarities between facility and survey data for some indicators (e.g. low birth weight and pre-check services), but differences for others (e.g. acute diarrhoeal diseases in children younger than 5 years and blood pressure screening). We made four critical observations: (i) data are available at the facility level but in varying formats; (ii) established global indicators may not always be useful in local monitoring; (iii) operational definitions must be refined; and (iv) triangulation and feedback from the field is vital. CONCLUSION: We observe that, while data can be used to develop indices of progress, interpretation of these indicators requires great care. In the attainment of universal health coverage, we consider that our observations of the utility of certain health indicators will provide valuable insights for practitioners and supervisors in the development of a primary health-care monitoring mechanism.


id: cord-295074-fsbp4fky
author: Broor, Shobha
date: 2013-11-21
txt: ./txt/cord-295074-fsbp4fky.txt
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mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinf.2013.11.005
doi: 10.1016/j.jinf.2013.11.005
summary:
  Rates of respiratory virus-associated hospitalization in children aged <5 years in rural northern India Introduction Acute respiratory infections are recognized as an important cause of mortality, hospitalization, and healthcare utilization in young children globally. 17e20 Using data from population-based surveillance of approximately 9500 children for hospitalizations for acute medical illness in rural northern India and concomitant testing for respiratory viruses by real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR), we estimate the incidence of respiratory virus-associated hospitalizations among children aged <5 years. Incidences were also calculated for children aged <6 months for RSV and influenza since maternal immunization with RSV and Among the 98 children with respiratory virus-associated illness, history of fever (82%) and cough (69%) were the most commonly reported symptoms. RSV and influenza viruses circulated with clearly defined but different seasonality and were infrequently detected among children without fever or respiratory symptoms or signs, similar to prior studies.

title:
  Rates of respiratory virus-associated hospitalization in children aged <5 years in rural northern India

abstract:
  OBJECTIVES: Though respiratory viruses are thought to cause substantial morbidity globally in children aged <5 years, the incidence of severe respiratory virus infections in children is unknown in India where 20% of the world's children live. METHODS: During August 2009–July 2011, prospective population-based surveillance was conducted for hospitalizations of children aged <5 years in a rural community in Haryana State. Clinical data and respiratory specimens were collected. Swabs were tested by RT-PCR for influenza and parainfluenza viruses, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), human metapneumovirus, coronaviruses, and adenovirus. Average annual hospitalization incidence was calculated using census data and adjusted for hospitalizations reported to occur at non-study hospitals according to a comunity healthcare utilization survey. RESULTS: Of 245 hospitalized children, respiratory viruses were detected among 98 (40%), of whom 92 (94%) had fever or respiratory symptoms. RSV accounted for the highest virus-associated hospitalization incidence (34.6/10,000, 95% CI 26.3–44.7) and 20% of hospitalizations. There were 11.8/10,000 (95% CI 7.9–18.4) influenza-associated hospitalizations (7% of hospitalizations). RSV and influenza virus detection peaked in winter (November–February) and rainy seasons (July), respectively. CONCLUSION: Respiratory viruses were associated with a substantial proportion of hospitalizations among young children in a rural Indian community. Public health research and prevention in India should consider targeting RSV and influenza in young children.


id: cord-296840-vo27imub
title: Implementation of Early Detection Services for Cancer in India During COVID-19 Pandemic
author: Khanna, Divya
date: 2020-09-16
txt: ./txt/cord-296840-vo27imub.txt
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mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32938229/
doi: 10.1177/1073274820960471
summary:
  The emergence of COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted several essential health services globally and early detection of cancer services is one of them. Strategies need to be adopted to continue early detection services and ensure safety of patients and health care workers from COVID-19 transmission. COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted several essential health services globally and early detection of cancer services is one of them. 10, 11 On 19th May 2020, due to the COVID-19 pandemic impact, the Government of India has currently suspended the door-todoor screening of people above 30 years of age as part of the national program based on the risk associated oral cavity examination. Tobacco Quitline services in India and other health portals and social platforms can be utilized for spreading the information which may enable the patient to visit hospitals timely when they detect any signs/symptoms through self-examination.

abstract:
  Early detection of cancer greatly increases the chances of better survival. The emergence of COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted several essential health services globally and early detection of cancer services is one of them. The routine cancer screenings have plummeted in many developed countries since the crisis. India has highest estimated lip and oral cavity cancer cases worldwide (119,992, 33.8%) and the secondhighest number of breast (162,468, 17.8%) and cervix uteri (96,922,30.7%) cancers in Asian sub-continent. Not only India has high burden of cancer, but the majority (75-80%) of patients have advanced disease at the time of diagnosis. Hence is it imperative that early detection services should be kept functional at out-patient settings so that at least the patients coming to hospitals with early signs and symptoms can be diagnosed as early as possible. Strategies need to be adopted to continue early detection services and ensure safety of patients and health care workers from COVID-19 transmission.


id: cord-297013-0ykz2raz
title: Alternative Approaches for Modelling COVID-19:High-Accuracy Low-Data Predictions
author: Agarwal, D. K.
date: 2020-07-25
txt: ./txt/cord-297013-0ykz2raz.txt
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mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.22.20159731
doi: 10.1101/2020.07.22.20159731
summary:
  Methods: Instead of relying on highly parameterized models, we design and train multiple neural networks with data on a national and state level, from 9 COVID-19 affected countries, including Indian and US states and territories. Further, we use an array of curve-fitting techniques on government-reported numbers of COVID-19 infections and deaths, separately projecting and collating curves from multiple regions across the globe, at multiple levels of granularity, combining heavily-localized extrapolations to create accurate national predictions. Further, we use an array of curve-fitting techniques on government-reported numbers of COVID-19 infections and deaths, separately projecting and collating curves from multiple regions across the globe, at multiple levels of granularity, combining heavily-localized extrapolations to create accurate national predictions. Therefore, we use curve-fitting and machine-learning models on national-and state-level data to predict government-reported numbers of total infections in multiple countries.

abstract:
  Background: Numerous models have tried to predict the spread of COVID-19. Many involve myriad assumptions and parameters which cannot be reliably calculated under current conditions. We describe machine-learning and curve-fitting based models using fewer assumptions and readily available data. Methods: Instead of relying on highly parameterized models, we design and train multiple neural networks with data on a national and state level, from 9 COVID-19 affected countries, including Indian and US states and territories. Further, we use an array of curve-fitting techniques on government-reported numbers of COVID-19 infections and deaths, separately projecting and collating curves from multiple regions across the globe, at multiple levels of granularity, combining heavily-localized extrapolations to create accurate national predictions. Findings: We achieve an R2 of 0.999 on average through the use of curve-fits and fine-tuned statistical learning methods on historical, global data. Using neural network implementations, we consistently predict the number of reported cases in 9 geographically- and demographically-varied countries and states with an accuracy of 99.53% for 14 days of forecast and 99.1% for 24 days of forecast. Interpretation: We have shown that curve-fitting and machine-learning methods applied on reported COVID-19 data almost perfectly reproduce the results of far more complex and data-intensive epidemiological models. Using our methods, several other parameters may be established, such as the average detection rate of COVID-19. As an example, we find that the detection rate of cases in India (even with our most lenient estimates) is 2.38% - almost a fourth of the world average of 9%.


id: cord-297343-e7slzb78
title: Fine-tuned Forecasting Techniques for COVID-19 Prediction in India
author: Gola, A.
date: 2020-08-13
url: http://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.08.10.20167247v1?rss=1
doi: 10.1101/2020.08.10.20167247
abstract:
  Estimation of statistical quantities plays a cardinal role in handling of convoluted situations such as COVID-19 pandemic and forecasting the number of affected people and fatalities is a major component for such estimations. Past researches have shown that simplistic numerical models fare much better than the complex stochastic and regression-based models when predicting for countries such as India, United States and Brazil where there is no indication of a peak anytime soon. In this research work, we present two models which give most accurate results when compared with other forecasting techniques. We performed both short-term and long-term forecasting based on these models and present the results for two discrete durations.


id: cord-297372-616042sz
author: Singh, Vikas
date: 2020-08-13
txt: ./txt/cord-297372-616042sz.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-297372-616042sz.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2020.115368
doi: 10.1016/j.envpol.2020.115368
summary:
  title: Diurnal and temporal changes in air pollution during COVID-19 strict lockdown over different regions of India We estimate the temporal and diurnal changes of the six criteria air pollutants, including particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10) and gaseous pollutants (NO2, O3, CO, and SO2) during lockdown (25th March – 3rd MHA, 2020) across regions of India using the observations from 134 real-time monitoring sites of Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB). Delhi''s air quality has improved with a significant reduction in primary pollutants, however, an increase in O3 was observed. The changes reported during the lockdown are combined effect of changes in the emissions, meteorology, and atmospheric chemistry that requires detailed investigations. Effect of lockdown amid COVID-19 pandemic on 905 air quality of the megacity Delhi, India. The impact of COVID-19 as a necessary 980 evil on air pollution in India during the lockdown

title:
  Diurnal and temporal changes in air pollution during COVID-19 strict lockdown over different regions of India

abstract:
  Abstract Lockdown measures to contain COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a considerable change in air pollution worldwide. We estimate the temporal and diurnal changes of the six criteria air pollutants, including particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10) and gaseous pollutants (NO2, O3, CO, and SO2) during lockdown (25th March – 3rd MHA, 2020) across regions of India using the observations from 134 real-time monitoring sites of Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB). Significant reduction in PM2.5, PM10, NO2, and CO has been found in all the regions during the lockdown. SO2 showed mixed behavior, with a slight increase at some sites but a comparatively significant decrease at other locations. O3 also showed a mixed variation with a mild increase in IGP and a decrease in the South. The absolute decrease in PM2.5, PM10, and NO2 was observed during peak morning traffic hours (08-10 Hrs) and late evening (20-24 Hrs), but the percentage reduction is almost constant throughout the day. A significant decrease in day-time O3 has been found over Indo Gangetic plain (IGP) and central India, whereas night-time O3 has increased over IGP due to less O3 loss. The most significant reduction (∼40-60%) was found in PM2.5 and PM10. The highest decrease in PM was found for the north-west and IGP followed by South and central regions. A considerable reduction (∼30-70%) in NO2 was found except for a few sites in the central region. A similar pattern was observed for CO having a ∼20-40% reduction. The reduction observed for PM2.5, PM10, NO2, and enhancement in O3 was proportional to the population density. Delhi’s air quality has improved with a significant reduction in primary pollutants, however, an increase in O3 was observed. The changes reported during the lockdown are combined effect of changes in the emissions, meteorology, and atmospheric chemistry that requires detailed investigations.


id: cord-298862-8bijio30
title: Buffalopox Virus: An Emerging Virus in Livestock and Humans
author: Eltom, Kamal H.
date: 2020-08-20
txt: ./txt/cord-298862-8bijio30.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-298862-8bijio30.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.3390/pathogens9090676
doi: 10.3390/pathogens9090676
summary:
  Buffalopox was first described in India, later in other countries, and has become an emerging contagious viral zoonotic disease infecting milkers with high morbidity among affected domestic buffalo and cattle. Over time, VACV evolved into BPXV by establishing itself in buffaloes to be increasingly pathogenic to this host and to make infections in cattle and humans. The full-length sequences of these four genes of BPXVs-obtained from outbreaks in buffaloes, cattle, and humans in India-were analyzed, to investigate their evolutionary relationship to other OPXVs circulating in the world vis-à The full-length sequences of these four genes of BPXVs-obtained from outbreaks in buffaloes, cattle, and humans in India-were analyzed, to investigate their evolutionary relationship to other OPXVs circulating in the world vis-à-vis the vaccine strains. Sequence and phylogenetic analysis of host-range (E3L, K3L, and C7L) and structural protein (B5R) genes of buffalopox virus isolates from buffalo, cattle, and human in India

abstract:
  Buffalopox virus (BPXV) is the cause of buffalopox, which was recognized by the FAO/WHO Joint Expert Committee on Zoonosis as an important zoonotic disease. Buffalopox was first described in India, later in other countries, and has become an emerging contagious viral zoonotic disease infecting milkers with high morbidity among affected domestic buffalo and cattle. BPXV is a member of the genus Orthopoxvirus and a close variant of the vaccinia virus (VACV). Recent genome data show that BPXV shares a most recent common ancestor of VACV Lister strain, which had been used for inoculating buffalo calves to produce a Smallpox vaccine. Over time, VACV evolved into BPXV by establishing itself in buffaloes to be increasingly pathogenic to this host and to make infections in cattle and humans. Together with the current pandemic of SARS-COV2/COVID 19, BPXV infections illustrate how vulnerable the human population is to the emergence and re-emergence of viral pathogens from unsuspected sources. In view that majority of the world population are not vaccinated against smallpox and are most vulnerable in the event of its re-emergence, reviewing and understanding the biology of vaccinia-like viruses are necessary for developing a new generation of safer smallpox vaccines in the smallpox-free world.


id: cord-299592-ymurfkbs
author: Bhattacharya, Sudip
date: 2020-04-15
txt: ./txt/cord-299592-ymurfkbs.txt
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mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.3934/publichealth.2020019
doi: 10.3934/publichealth.2020019
abstract: nan
summary:
  title: Addressing the shortage of personal protective equipment during the COVID-19 pandemic in India-A public health perspective Nonetheless, it is only possible to address COVID-19 if we can flatten the epidemic curve by classical intervention measures like lockdown and social distancing processes, which may give lead time to many health care systems to arrange further management of the outbreak. When health care systems become stressed and enter the contingency mode, CDC recommends conserving resources by selectively cancelling nonemergency procedures, cancelling outpatient encounters which might require face masks/PPEs. When face masks are unavailable, the CDC recommends use of face shields without masks, taking clinicians at high risk for COVID-19 complications out of clinical service, staffing services with convalescent HCWs presumably immune to SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2), and use of homemade/handmade masks, perhaps from bandanas or scarves if necessary [2] .

title:
  Addressing the shortage of personal protective equipment during the COVID-19 pandemic in India-A public health perspective


id: cord-299683-nv8kfp7z
title: Inter-state transmission potential and vulnerability of COVID-19 in India
author: Ghosh, Kapil
date: 2020-06-16
txt: ./txt/cord-299683-nv8kfp7z.txt
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mime: text/plain
url: https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/pii/S259006172030051X
doi: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2020.100114
summary:
  To assess the inter-state diversity in spreading potentiality of COVID-19, the exposure, readiness and resilience capability have been studied. In this context, the fact is noteworthy that every state of India is not equally well-equipped with adequate medical infrastructure to provide necessary health care facilities to the COVID-19 patients. This paper aims to highlight the interstate variations in transmission potential of COVID-19 and to assess the exposure, preparedness and resilience capacity in different states in India. State and district wise data regarding the confirmed case of COVID-19 and test records from 30 th January to 31 st May, 2020 have been collected from publicly available portal of covid19india.org. To identify states wise potential for hospital shortages, the COVID 19 confirmed cases and hospital bed ratio has also been calculated. In India, Recovery rate of COVID-19 patients is increasing and during first phase it was 13.16% and in last phase it reaches to about 50% with great inter-state variation.

abstract:
  Abstract Since the first case of COVID-19 traced in India on 30th January 2020, the total no. of confirmed cases is amplified. To assess the inter-state diversity in spreading potentiality of COVID-19, the exposure, readiness and resilience capability have been studied. On the basis of the extracted data, the outbreak scenario, growth rate, testing amenities have been analysed. The study reflects that there is an enormous disparity in growth rate and total COVID-19 cases. The major outbreak clusters associated with major cities of India. COVID-19 cases are very swiftly amplifying with exponential growth in every four to seven days in main affected states during first phase of lockdown. The result shows the vibrant disproportion in the aspect of, hospital bed ratio, coronavirus case-hospital bed ratio, provision of isolation and ventilators, test ratio, distribution of testing laboratories and accessibility of test centres all over India. The study indicates the sharp inequality in transmission potentiality and resilience capacity of different states. Every state and union territory are not well-prepared to contain the spreading of Covid-19. The strict protective measures and uniform resilience system must be implemented in every corner of India to battle against the menace of Covid-19.


id: cord-300163-06hbegx1
author: Harris, Jody
date: 2020-07-14
txt: ./txt/cord-300163-06hbegx1.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-300163-06hbegx1.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-020-01064-5
doi: 10.1007/s12571-020-01064-5
summary:
  We aimed to investigate effects of this multi-layered shock on production, sales, prices, incomes and diets for vegetable farmers in India as both producers and consumers of nutrient-dense foods. This paper uses novel empirical data to understand disruptions to production, livelihoods and diets in agricultural households in India, to draw lessons from COVID-19and particularly its effects on nutrient-dense perishable food items for making food systems more resilient. We use ordered logit regressions to analyse associations between the intensity of self-reported changes in vegetable livelihoods (quantity sold, prices, income) and diets (change in consumption per food group) due to COVID-19 and major household characteristics (farm size, gender of the farmer, and the number of produced vegetables). While we did not investigate the direct effects of sickness in farming households, the subsequent lockdown policy was perceived by farmers to have affected production (through lack of labour, storage and inputs); sales (through drops in demand and lack of transport); prices and income (with reductions due to lack of demand); and diets (in terms of ability to access the most nutrient-dense foods).

title:
  Food system disruption: initial livelihood and dietary effects of COVID-19 on vegetable producers in India

abstract:
  Disruption to food systems and impacts on livelihoods and diets have been brought into sharp focus by the COVID-19 pandemic. We aimed to investigate effects of this multi-layered shock on production, sales, prices, incomes and diets for vegetable farmers in India as both producers and consumers of nutrient-dense foods. We undertook a rapid telephone survey with 448 farmers in 4 states, in one of the first studies to document the early impacts of the pandemic and policy responses on farming households. We find that a majority of farmers report negative impacts on production, sales, prices and incomes. Over 80% of farms reported some decline in sales, and over 20% of farms reported devastating declines (sold almost nothing). Price reductions were reported by over 80% of farmers, and reductions by more than half for 50% of farmers. Similarly, farm income reportedly dropped for 90% of farms, and by more than half for 60%. Of surveyed households, 62% reported disruptions to their diets. A majority of farm households reported reduced ability to access the most nutrient-dense foods. Around 80% of households reported ability to protect their staple food consumption, and the largest falls in consumption were in fruit and animal source foods other than dairy, in around half of households. Reported vegetable consumption fell in almost 30% of households, but vegetables were also the only food group where consumption increased for some, in around 15% of households. Our data suggest higher vulnerability of female farmers in terms of both livelihoods and diet, and differential effects on smaller and larger farms, meaning different farms may require different types of support in order to continue to function. Farms reported diverse coping strategies to maintain sales, though often with negative implications for reported incomes. The ability to consume one’s own produce may be somewhat protective of diets when other routes to food access fail. The impacts of COVID-19 and subsequent policy responses on both livelihoods and diets in horticultural households risk rolling back the impressive economic and nutrition gains India has seen over the past decade. Food systems, and particularly those making available the most nutrient-dense foods, must be considered in ongoing and future government responses.


id: cord-300817-cxc00k0d
author: Saha, Jay
date: 2020-07-15
txt: ./txt/cord-300817-cxc00k0d.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-300817-cxc00k0d.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/pii/S026974912033966X
doi: 10.1016/j.envpol.2020.115250
summary:
  title: Indoor air pollution (IAP) and pre-existing morbidities among under-5 children in India: are risk factors of coronavirus disease (COVID-19)?() To find out the risk factor zones associated with Coronavirus disease among under-five children using pre-existing morbidity conditions and indoor air pollution (IAP) environmental factors and also with current fatality and recovery rate of COVID-19 disease in India. So, compared to the other previous studies in India, this type of study is yet not done, considering this huge research gap and novelty, this study also aims to find out the risk factors associated with the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) among under-five children using pre-existing morbidity conditions and indoor air pollution environmental factors which are solid biomass cooking fuel and indoor smoking cigarettes and also with current case fatality ratio (CFR) and recovery rate (RR) of the COVID-19 disease in the high focusing states and union territories of India which are in a risk zone.

title:
  Indoor air pollution (IAP) and pre-existing morbidities among under-5 children in India: are risk factors of coronavirus disease (COVID-19)?()

abstract:
  Globally, the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak is linked with air pollution of both indoor and outdoor environments and co-morbidities conditions of human beings. To find out the risk factor zones associated with Coronavirus disease among under-five children using pre-existing morbidity conditions and indoor air pollution (IAP) environmental factors and also with current fatality and recovery rate of COVID-19 disease in India. Data was utilized from the 4th round of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS), 2015–16, and from the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MoHFW) on 18th May 2020. Mean, standard deviation, and Z-score statistical methods have been employed to find out the risk factor zones i.e. to execute the objective. Findings of this study are, the states and UTs which have more likely to very higher to higher risk factors or zones of Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) are Mizoram (1.4), Meghalaya (1.27), Uttarakhand (0.92), West Bengal (0.73), Uttar Pradesh (0.66), Jammu and Kashmir (0.44), Odisha (0.33), Madhya Pradesh (0.21), Jharkhand (0.20), Bihar (0.19), Maharashtra (0.16 risk score), compared to UTs like Assam (-0.12), Rajasthan (-0.13), Goa (-0.14), Manipur (-0.17), Chandigarh (-0.19), Haryana (-0.22), Delhi (-0.27) have moderate risk factors of COVID-19, and the states and UTs like Daman and Diu (-1.18), Sikkim (-0.98), Andaman and Nicobar Islands (-0.84), Kerala (-0.69), Dadra and Nagar Haveli (-0.68), Arunachal Pradesh ( 0.-53), Karnataka (-0.42), and Nagaland (-0.36) have very low-risk zones of COVID-19 deaths. From a research viewpoint, there is a prerequisite need for epidemiological studies to investigate the connection between indoor air pollution and pre-existing morbidity which are associated with COVID-19. Well-built public health measures, including rapidly searching in high focus areas and testing of COVID-19, should be performed in vulnerable areas of COVID-19.


id: cord-301295-kthqb2fs
author: Rajkumar, R. P.
date: 2020-07-30
txt: ./txt/cord-301295-kthqb2fs.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-301295-kthqb2fs.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.27.20163287
doi: 10.1101/2020.07.27.20163287
summary:
  8 Preliminary research has found that demographic and socioeconomic factors can influence variability in the spread and impact of COVID-19 not only between countries, but within a given country; in an ecological analysis of data from the United States, poverty, number of elderly people and population density were positively correlated with COVID-19 incidence and mortality rates. The results of this preliminary analysis found that certain demographic, socioeconomic and health-related variables were significantly related to the variability in COVID-19 prevalence, mortality and case fatality rates across 24 different regions of India. . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.27.20163287 doi: medRxiv preprint by the percentage of DALYs associated with this disorder; COVID-19 mortality was associated with the burden of ischemic heart disease; and COVID-19 case fatality rate was associated with the total population of each region. . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.27.20163287 doi: medRxiv preprint Though this could not be confirmed by multivariate analysis, population was positively correlated with the case fatality rate across the different regions of India.

title:
  The relationship between demographic, psychosocial and health-related parameters and the impact of COVID-19: a study of twenty-four Indian regions

abstract:
  Objectives: The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has varied widely across nations and even in different regions of the same nation. Some of this variability may be due to the interplay of pre-existing demographic, psychological, social and health-related factors in a given population. Methods: Data on the COVID-19 prevalence, crude mortality and case fatality rates were obtained from official government statistics for 24 regions of India. The relationship between these parameters and demographic, social, psychological and health-related indices in these states was examined using both bivariate and multivariate analyses. Results: A variety of factors - state population, sex ratio, and burden of diarrhoeal disease and ischemic heart disease - were associated with measures of the impact of COVID-19 on bivariate analyses. On multivariate analyses, prevalence and crude mortality rate were both significantly and negatively associated with the sex ratio. Conclusions: These results suggest that the transmission and impact of COVID-19 in a given population may be influenced by a number of variables, with demographic factors showing the most consistent association.


id: cord-301800-ssdzd43t
title: Approval of Itolizumab for COVID-19: A Premature Decision or Need of The Hour?
author: Atal, Shubham
date: 2020-10-13
txt: ./txt/cord-301800-ssdzd43t.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-301800-ssdzd43t.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33048300/
doi: 10.1007/s40259-020-00448-5
summary:
  Based on the results, the Indian drug regulatory agency recently approved itolizumab in July 2020 for ''restricted emergency use'' for the treatment of CRS in moderate to severe acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) due to COVID-19. The Indian drug regulatory agency (Central Drug Standard Control Organisation, CDSCO) recently approved itolizumab for ''restricted emergency use'' for treatment of cytokine release syndrome (CRS) in moderate to severe acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) due to COVID-19, followed by a similar approval in Cuba [1, 2] . The drug was studied in an open-label, randomized, controlled, phase II trial at four hospitals in India to assess the safety and efficacy of itolizumab in preventing CRS in moderate to severe ARDS due to COVID-19 [7] . The approval of itolizumab for restricted emergency use to treat COVID-19 patients with the complication of moderate to severe ARDS comes at a time when cases and hospitalizations are increasing alarmingly; the mortality has exceeded 80 thousand in India [24] .

abstract:
  Itolizumab is a first-in-class anti-CD6 monoclonal antibody that was initially developed for various cancers and was later developed and approved in India for treatment of moderate to severe chronic plaque psoriasis in 2013. This drug is now being re-purposed for COVID-19. The potential utility of itolizumab in COVID-19, based on its unique mechanism of action in ameliorating cytokine release syndrome (CRS), was proposed first in Cuba with approval of a single-arm clinical trial and expanded access use. Subsequently, a phase II, open-label, randomized, placebo-controlled trial has been conducted in 30 COVID-19 patients in India after receiving regulatory permission. Based on the results, the Indian drug regulatory agency recently approved itolizumab in July 2020 for ‘restricted emergency use’ for the treatment of CRS in moderate to severe acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) due to COVID-19. This has drawn sharp criticism within the scientific community, with the approval being granted on the basis of a relatively small phase II trial, without conduct of a conventional phase III trial, and lacking availability of the claimed supportive real-world evidence in the public domain to date. In a global scenario where finding a successful treatment for COVID-19 is of utmost priority, a biologic agent has been re-purposed and approved with a successfully completed RCT, in a country where cases and mortality due to COVID-19 are growing exponentially. However, instead of welcoming the approval with open arms, many doubts are being raised. This is an issue that needs to be considered and dealt with sensitively, as well as scientifically.


id: cord-302677-6mfnxkaw
author: Bhargava, Anurag
date: 2020-07-10
txt: ./txt/cord-302677-6mfnxkaw.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-302677-6mfnxkaw.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0019570720300755?v=s5
doi: 10.1016/j.ijtb.2020.07.004
summary:
  title: The potential impact of the COVID-19 response related lockdown on TB incidence and mortality in India India has the highest burden of incident tuberculosis (TB) cases and deaths globally. India has the highest burden of incident tuberculosis (TB) cases and deaths globally. COVID-19 response related lockdown has resulted in an economic crisis which may 7 double levels of poverty, has exacerbated food insecurity, and disrupted TB services. COVID-19 response related lockdown has resulted in an economic crisis which may 7 double levels of poverty, has exacerbated food insecurity, and disrupted TB services. According to the results of the National Family Health Survey-4 (NFHS-4), 23% of adult 55 women and 19% of adult men have undernutrition defined as a body mass index (BMI) less 56 than 18.5 kg/m 2 . Undernutrition and the 393 incidence of tuberculosis in India: National and subnational estimates of the 394 population-attributable fraction related to undernutrition

title:
  The potential impact of the COVID-19 response related lockdown on TB incidence and mortality in India

abstract:
  India has the highest burden of incident tuberculosis (TB) cases and deaths globally. TB is strongly associated with poverty and this risk is largely mediated by undernutrition in India. COVID-19 response related lockdown has resulted in an economic crisis which may double levels of poverty, has exacerbated food insecurity, and disrupted TB services. These developments may have serious implications for TB progression and transmission in India. The nutritional status of a population is a strong determinant of the TB incidence, and undernutrition in adults alone accounts for 32-44% of TB incidence in India. A systematic review has shown that a 14% increase in TB incidence can occur per one unit decrease in body mass index (BMI), across the BMI range of 18.5-30 kg/m2. We believe that one unit decrease in BMI (corresponding to a 2-3 kg weight loss) may result in the poor in India as a result of the lockdown and its aftermath. This may result in an increase in estimated (uncertainty interval) incident TB by 185 610 (180 230, 190 990) cases. A 59% reduction in TB case detection between end March and May 2020, may result in an estimated (uncertainty interval) additional 87 711 (59 998, 120 630) TB deaths [19.5% increase (14.5, 24.7)] in 2020. Disadvantaged social groups, those living in states with higher levels of poverty, undernutrition, and migrant workers are at particular risk. We suggest enhanced rations including pulses through the public distribution system, direct cash transfers to the poor pending restoration of livelihoods. TB services should be resumed immediately with enhanced efforts at case detection including active case finding. To prevent deaths among TB detected within the national TB programme, systemic identification, referral and management of severe disease at notification should be considered.


id: cord-303523-m16vlv1q
title: MACHINE LEARNING PREDICTION FOR COVID 19 PANDEMIC IN INDIA
author: Ogundokun, R. O.
date: 2020-05-26
txt: ./txt/cord-303523-m16vlv1q.txt
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extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.20.20107847
doi: 10.1101/2020.05.20.20107847
summary:
  Objective: The objective of the paper is to formulate a simple average aggregated machine learning method to predict the number, size, and length of COVID-19 cases extent and wind-up period crosswise India. In this study, the authors formulated a simple mean aggregated method by combining 3 popular regression models and predicted the sum of COVID-19 in India. As a substitute for epidemiologic spread procedure, the study employed 3 aggregated methods SVR, NN, and LR to predict the instantaneous movement of the conveyance dynamics and generate the real-time predictions of COVID-19 disease transversely the metropolises of India. In this study, the formulation of aggregated methods illustrates a substantial enhancement in the prediction of the COVID-19 disease in India. The study delivered a substantial enhancement in prediction precisions for COVID-19 disease in India when the postulated aggregated system was employed. The study postulated a simple-mean aggregated method for the prediction of COVID-19 disease in India.

abstract:
  Background: Coronavirus was detected in December 2019 in a bulk seafood shop in Wuhan, China. The original incident of COVID-19 pandemic in India was conveyed on 30th January 2020 instigating from the nation called china. As of 25th April 2020, the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare has established a total of 24, 942 incidents, 5, 210 recuperation including 1 relocation, and 779 demises in the republic. Objective: The objective of the paper is to formulate a simple average aggregated machine learning method to predict the number, size, and length of COVID-19 cases extent and wind-up period crosswise India. Method: This study examined the datasets via the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model (ARIMA). The study also built a simple mean aggregated method established on the performance of 3 regression techniques such as Support Vector Regression (SVR, NN, and LR), Neural Network, and Linear Regression. Result: The results showed that COVID-19 disease can correctly be predicted. The result of the prediction shows that COVID-19 ailment could be conveyed through water and air ecological variables and so preventives measures such as social distancing, wearing of mask and hand gloves, staying at home can help to avert the circulation of the sickness thereby resulting in reduced active cases and even mortality. Conclusion: It was established that the projected method outperformed when likened to previously obtainable practical models on the bases of prediction precision. Hence, putting in place the preventive measures can effectively manage the spread of COVID-19, and also the death rate will be reduced and eventually be over in India and other nations.


id: cord-303791-yw80ndg6
title: Teledermatology in the Wake of COVID -19 Scenario: An Indian Perspective
author: Ashique, Karalikkattil T.
date: 2020-05-10
txt: ./txt/cord-303791-yw80ndg6.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-303791-yw80ndg6.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32695684/
doi: 10.4103/idoj.idoj_260_20
abstract: nan
summary:
  The COVID-19 pandemic and the resultant healthcare delivery issues could be a good time to plan and implement an effective and enduring teledermatology system for India. World Health Organisation (WHO) has clearly defined telemedicine, [5] whereas in India, we never had a standard guideline for teleconsultation till the Medical Council of India (MCI) brought the directive to provide healthcare using telemedicine during the COVID-19 pandemic period. With broadband services being available throughout the country, telemedicine can be easily practiced even using a patient-initiated model (through mobile applications like WhatsApp, Zoom , Google Duo. etc.) These media have the obvious advantage of the patient being familiar in using them. 1. Patient operated system connecting to the healthcare provider in real time using available modes of texting, imaging, audio, and video facility on smartphone, personal computer, and such devices [Figures 1a, b, 2a, b, 3a , b] 2.


id: cord-304203-lhqvi3j0
title: COVID-19 pandemic and its recovery time of patients in India: A pilot study
author: Barman, Manash Pratim
date: 2020-07-09
txt: ./txt/cord-304203-lhqvi3j0.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-304203-lhqvi3j0.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32673841/
doi: 10.1016/j.dsx.2020.07.004
summary:
  title: COVID-19 pandemic and its recovery time of patients in India: A pilot study Kaplan-Meier Product limit estimator, Kaplan-Meier survival curve and Log-rank test are used to analyze the recovery time of Covid-19 patients. RESULT: From the results of the study, it is found that the average recovery time of Covid-19 patients in India is 25 days (95% C.I. 16 days to 34 days). The average (median) recovery time of Covid-19 patients is estimated by using Kaplan-Meier survival curve. Average recovery time with respect to sex and age of Covid-19 patients are also estimated by using the same method. Log-rank [11] [12] test is used to compare the average recovery time of Covid-19 patients with respect to sex and age. Log-rank test is used to study the recovery time of Covid-19 patients with respect to sex and age and the results are presented in table 3.

abstract:
  BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Covid-19 virus started from Wuhan, China and has brought the world down to its knees. It has catapulted as a venomous global phenomenon. This study focuses on the Covid-19 situation in India and its recovery time. METHOD: The study period is from March 1, 2020 to April 25, 2020. A random sample of 221 individuals found positive with Covid-19 from March 1, 2020 to 31st March is included in the study which is followed up April 25, 2020. There is a male preponderance in the sample with 66% of the Covid-19 patients being male and about 34% being female. Kaplan-Meier Product limit estimator, Kaplan-Meier survival curve and Log-rank test are used to analyze the recovery time of Covid-19 patients. RESULT: From the results of the study, it is found that the average recovery time of Covid-19 patients in India is 25 days (95% C.I. 16 days to 34 days). Only 4% of the patients get cured after 10 days of treatment. The recovery time of male and female patients is not statistically different. Recovery time of patients belonging to different age groups is also not statistically significant. CONCLUSION: This information on recovery time of Covid-19 patients will help planners to chalk out effective strategies.


id: cord-304429-qmcrvufu
author: Deepmala,
date: 2020-08-31
txt: ./txt/cord-304429-qmcrvufu.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-304429-qmcrvufu.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: http://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.08.25.20180265v1?rss=1
doi: 10.1101/2020.08.25.20180265
summary:
  This study focuses on the analysis and the prediction of the epidemic situation of COVID-19 in the state of Uttar Pradesh, India, using logistic and Gompertz nonlinear regression model, which are accord with the statistical law of epidemiology. By using the results of the non-linear models fitted by least square estimation (LSE), we define the prior distribution of the parameters of the Bayesian non-linear models for estimating and predicting the cumulative and the daily confirmed, deceased, and recovered cases of Uttar Pradesh state. Figures 2, 3 and 4 show the cumulative and the daily number of confirmed cases, deceased cases, and recovered cases of COVID-19 in Uttar Pradesh respectively and the fitted curve by the Baysian non-linear regression model using the prior information. Also, Watanabe Akaike information criterion (WAIC) is computed from the fitting of Bayesian Gompertz and logistic models to the data of the cumulative confirmed cases, cumulative deceased cases, and cumulative recovered cases of COVID-19 in UP, India.

title:
  Analysis and prediction of Covid-19 spreading through Bayesian modelling with a case study of Uttar Pradesh, India

abstract:
  The pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) started in Wuhan, China, and spread worldwide. In India, COVID-19 cases increased rapidly throughout India. Various measures like awareness program, social distancing, and contact tracing have been implemented to control the COVID-19 outbreak. In the absence of any vaccine, the prediction of the confirmed, deceased, and recovered cases is required to enhance the health care system's capacity and control the transmission. In this study, the cumulative and the daily confirmed, deceased, and recovered cases in Uttar Pradesh, India, were analyzed. We used the Logistic and Gompertz non-linear regression model using a Bayesian paradigm. We build the prior distribution of the model using information obtained from some other states of India, which are already reached at the advanced stage of COVID-19. Results from the analysis indicated that the predicted maximum number of confirmed, deceased, and recovered cases will be around 1157335, 5843, and 1145829. The daily number of confirmed, deceased, and recovered cases will be maximum at 104th day, 73rd day, and 124th day from 16 June 2020. Moreover, the COVID-19 will be over probably by early-June, 2021. The analysis did not consider any changes in government control measures. We hope this study can provide some relevant information to the government and health officials.


id: cord-305409-7v4nau0p
author: Aravind, S.R.
date: 2020-08-10
txt: ./txt/cord-305409-7v4nau0p.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-305409-7v4nau0p.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1871402120303064?v=s5
doi: 10.1016/j.dsx.2020.08.003
abstract: nan
summary:
  With this background, in the following sections we discuss the role of patients'' glycemic status before they have COVID-19 infection, at the time of admission, and during the hospital stay, vis-à-vis morbidity and mortality, and briefly outline key management issues (Table 1) . Such patients with uncontrolled hyperglycemia will obviously have high blood glucose levels during admission and also during hospitalization when they contract COVID19.This is the first scenario which is quite well known. The second scenario is when a patient not known to have diabetes is develops COVID-19 infection and high blood glucose and even ketoacidosis is detected at admission to the hospital [11] . However there are a number of factors which pose challenges; triggers for hyperglycemia [surge of cytokines ("cytokine storm"), frequent use of corticosteroids, etc.], ketoacidosis and hyperosmolar states, inability to monitor blood glucose levels frequently because of reduced contact between healthcare worker and patients, and non-inclusion of diabetes expert in the critical care team in many hospitals.

title:
  Strict Glycemic Control is Needed in Times of COVID19 Epidemic in India: A Call for Action for all Physicians()()()()()


id: cord-305498-8tmtvw1r
author: Singh Saraj, K.
date: 2020-09-10
txt: ./txt/cord-305498-8tmtvw1r.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-305498-8tmtvw1r.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214751920304564?v=s5
doi: 10.1016/j.inat.2020.100895
summary:
  Neurosurgery department formulated their own strategy for successful and covid free management of neurosurgical patients along with zero transmission rate among doctors and staff. METHODS: All Neurosurgical patients who got attended, admitted and operated from 25(th) March to 30(th) June 2020 (Period of lockdown) were taken in this study. A proper training to all neurosurgical staff and residents were given for management of patients (admission to operation to discharge). CONCLUSION: Following a properly made standard operating procedure and strictly implementing it can avoid any type of misadventure in neurosurgery during corona pandemic. To avert crisis during such pandemic, hospital and department both need a strategy to meticulously manage their staff, emergency, operation theatre complex (OTC), Intensive care unit (ICU) and wards. One Resident was fixed for taking rounds of covid negative patients in the ward and ICU for 1 week. [9, 10, 12] At our center, all patients were shifted to Neurosurgical ICU in post-operative period.

title:
  Modification of Neurosurgical Practice during Corona Pandemic: Our Experience at AIIMS Patna And Long Term Guidelines

abstract:
  BACKGROUND: First case of covid-19 was confirmed on 30(th) January, 2020 in India. Our state, Bihar reported its first confirmed case of covid on 22(nd) march 2020 at AIIMS Patna. For safety, Electives surgeries and outpatient department was suspended temporary since 25(th) March. Standard operating procedure (SOP) was framed for covid suspected, covid positive and negative patients. Neurosurgery department formulated their own strategy for successful and covid free management of neurosurgical patients along with zero transmission rate among doctors and staff. METHODS: All Neurosurgical patients who got attended, admitted and operated from 25(th) March to 30(th) June 2020 (Period of lockdown) were taken in this study. Categorizations of the patients were done according to the urgency and elective nature of pathology after corona screening and RT-PCR testing of covid-19. A proper training to all neurosurgical staff and residents were given for management of patients (admission to operation to discharge). RESULTS: Total 133 patients were attended and 90 were admitted. We operated 76 cases (major -52, minor – 24) during the lockdown period. Out of this 2 were corona positive (both eventually succumbed) and rest 74 was corona negative. One patient who was operated with corona negative report became positive after 10 days of surgery inward. All the residents, faculty and nursing staff remain asymptomatic throughout the lockdown period with zero infection rate and zero transmission rate. CONCLUSION: Following a properly made standard operating procedure and strictly implementing it can avoid any type of misadventure in neurosurgery during corona pandemic. KEY MESSAGE: Adequate planning and sufficient training is necessary to avoid any untoward incident of infection. Proper utilization of limited human resources and infectious kit is needed at this time.


id: cord-307024-o17loo6d
title: Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever: Current Scenario in India
author: Yadav, Pragya D.
date: 2013-06-26
txt: ./txt/cord-307024-o17loo6d.txt
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extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40011-013-0197-3
doi: 10.1007/s40011-013-0197-3
summary:
  During December 2010, National Institute of Virology, Pune detected Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus specific IgG antibodies in livestock serum samples from Gujarat and Rajasthan states. The present scenario in India suggests the need to look seriously into various important aspects of this zoonotic disease, which includes diagnosis, intervention, patient management, control of laboratory acquired and nosocomial infection, tick control, livestock survey and this, should be done in priority before it further spreads to other states. In nature, humans get infected either through a tick bite or by contact with an acute phase CCHF patient or by contact with blood or tissues from viremic livestock [4] .This review elucidates the current scenario including presence of this virus in India, consequences on public health, issues with diagnostic system, surveillance program to monitor this disease, network of laboratories, and requirement of infrastructure to address CCHF outbreaks.

abstract:
  India is considered as a hot spot for emerging infectious diseases. In the recent past many infectious diseases of emerging and re-emerging nature have entered this subcontinent and affected a large number of populations. A few examples are Nipah, Avian influenza, Pandemic influenza, severe acute respiratory syndrome corona virus and Chikungunya virus. These diseases have not only affected human and animal health but also economy of the country on a very large scale. During December 2010, National Institute of Virology, Pune detected Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus specific IgG antibodies in livestock serum samples from Gujarat and Rajasthan states. Subsequently, during January 2011 Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus was confirmed in a nosocomial outbreak, in Ahmadabad, Gujarat, India. Retrospective investigation of suspected human samples confirmed that the virus was present in Gujarat state, earlier to this outbreak. This disease has a case fatality rate ranging from 5 to 80 %. Earlier presence of hemagglutination inhibition antibodies have been detected in animal sera from Jammu and Kashmir, the western border districts, southern regions and Maharashtra state of India. The evidences of virus activity and antibodies were observed during and after the outbreak in human beings, ticks and domestic animals (buffalo, cattle, goat and sheep) from Gujarat State of India. During the year 2012, this virus was again reported in human beings and animals. Phylogenetic analysis showed that all the four isolates of 2011, as well as the S segment from specimen of 2010 and 2012 were highly conserved and clustered together in the Asian/Middle East genotype IV. The S segment of South-Asia 2 type was closest to a Tajikistan strain TADJ/HU8966 of 1990. The present scenario in India suggests the need to look seriously into various important aspects of this zoonotic disease, which includes diagnosis, intervention, patient management, control of laboratory acquired and nosocomial infection, tick control, livestock survey and this, should be done in priority before it further spreads to other states. Being a high risk group pathogen, diagnosis is a major concern in India where only a few Biosafety level 3 laboratories exist and it needs to be addressed immediately before this disease becomes endemic in India.


id: cord-307868-bsmni8sh
title: Human dignity and cross-border migrants in the era of the COVID-19 pandemic
author: Dhungana, Nimesh
date: 2020-08-28
txt: ./txt/cord-307868-bsmni8sh.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-307868-bsmni8sh.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32895595/
doi: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105174
summary:
  The coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak, and the resultant lock-downs and cross-border travel restrictions have reinvigorated public debates about the vulnerability of the global migrants, together with the responsibility of the States to ensure a dignified treatment of migrants. Situating within the debates on capability-based development and human dignity and drawing on emerging evidence from Nepal, this opinion piece seeks to explore how returnee Nepali labour migrants from India are subject to dignity violation within the government''s response to the COVID-19. The paper tentatively concludes that the Nepali government''s decision to seal its open border with India, and its subsequent interventions to curtail the flow of outbreak have undermined the human dignity of Nepali migrants, defined as a combination of internal capability and external capability (Nussbaum, 2011) . Finally, the intersecting crisis of COVID-19 and cross-border migration in Nepal has renewed political discourse and demands surrounding the rights and dignity of poor migrants.

abstract:
  The coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak, and the resultant lock-downs and cross-border travel restrictions have reinvigorated public debates about the vulnerability of the global migrants, together with the responsibility of the States to ensure a dignified treatment of migrants. Situating within the debates on capability-based development and human dignity and drawing on emerging evidence from Nepal, this opinion piece seeks to explore how returnee Nepali labour migrants from India are subject to dignity violation within the government's response to the COVID-19. The paper tentatively concludes that the Nepali government's decision to seal its border with India, and its subsequent interventions to curtail the flow of outbreak, have undermined the human dignity of Nepali migrants. In so doing, the paper raises a normative question as to whether, to what extent and for how long, poor and marginalised populations such as labour migrants should be expected to endure suffering and dignity violation in the interests of protecting the health of the population at large. The role of contextual politics in shaping the response to the intersecting nature of cross-border and public health crisis is highlighted. Attention is also drawn to the potential of political response against dignity violation, in exposing the ineptitude of the State to safeguard the well-being of its returnee migrants.


id: cord-308187-t68d7b20
title: Genomic medicine and developing countries: creating a room of their own
author: Séguin, Béatrice
date: 2008
txt: ./txt/cord-308187-t68d7b20.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-308187-t68d7b20.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1038/nrg2379
doi: 10.1038/nrg2379
summary:
  Using previously described methods (BOX 1), we conducted 56 in-depth interviews to develop case studies of the Mexican National Genomic Medicine Institute (INMEGEN) (BOX 2) , the Indian Genome Variation database Consortium (IGVdb Consortium) (BOX 3) and two smaller initiatives in Thailand, the Thailand SNP Discovery Project, and the Pharmacogenomics Project at the Thailand Centre for Excellence in Life Sciences (TCELS) (BOX 4) . We performed 56 in-depth, face-toface (or by teleconference call), semi-structured interviews with key informants representing scientists and managers from the Mexican National Institute of Genomic Medicine (INMEGEN), the Indian Genome Variation Database (IGVdb) Consortium, the Thai SNP Initiative, the National Center for Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology in Thailand (BIOTEC), the Thai Centre of Excellence for Life Sciences (TCELS) as well as key informants from diverse backgrounds such as the media, non-governmental organizations, regulatory agencies, ministries of health, and experts in the area of genomics, pharmacogenetics and/or ethics from developed and developing countries.

abstract:
  The notion that developing countries must wait for the developed world to make advances in science and technology that they later import at great cost is being challenged. We have previously argued that developing countries can harness human genetic variation to benefit their populations and economies. Based on our empirical studies of large-scale population genotyping projects in Mexico, India and Thailand, we describe how these resources are being adopted to improve public health and create knowledge-based economies. A significant additional benefit is building the capacity for scientific research and internalizing advances in technology, whatever their source.


id: cord-308328-wfiqbu3m
title: Age-group-targeted testing for COVID-19 as a new prevention strategy
author: Upadhyay, Ranjit Kumar
date: 2020-09-01
txt: ./txt/cord-308328-wfiqbu3m.txt
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extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11071-020-05879-x
doi: 10.1007/s11071-020-05879-x
summary:
  We observe a marked flattening of the infection curve upon simulating increased testing in the 15–40 year age groups in India. Robust testing and tracing are key to containing the pandemic and effectively ''flattening'' the infection curve, both by distributing cases over a longer period of time and by reducing the total number of cases, and thus lowering the epidemic peak. Here, we leverage the emerging information from COVID-19 in different countries, mainly USA, Italy and India, to develop a COVID-19 specific model that can inform on effective interventions for coronavirus containment. Our model recommends that testing and tracing be ramped up in the 15-40-year age-group population in India in order to flatten the infection curve in shortest time possible in the current situation. Finally, we have proposed a novel method of age-group-targeted testing to tackle the situation and have also showed how it can help in flattening the curve effectively.

abstract:
  Robust testing and tracing are key to fighting the menace of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This outbreak has progressed with tremendous impact on human life, society and economy. In this paper, we propose an age-structured SIQR model to track the progression of the pandemic in India, Italy and USA, taking into account the different age structures of these countries. We have made predictions about the disease dynamics, identified the most infected age groups and analysed the effectiveness of social distancing measures taken in the early stages of infection. The basic reproductive ratio [Formula: see text] has been numerically calculated for each country. We propose a strategy of age-targeted testing, with increased testing in the most proportionally infected age groups. We observe a marked flattening of the infection curve upon simulating increased testing in the 15–40 year age groups in India. Thus, we conclude that social distancing and widespread testing are effective methods of control, with emphasis on testing and identifying the hot spots of highly infected populations. It has also been suggested that a complete lockdown, followed by lockdowns in selected regions, is more effective than the reverse.


id: cord-310332-y10rqdy7
title: Outbreak Trends of Coronavirus Disease–2019 in India: A Prediction
author: Tiwari, Sunita
date: 2020-04-22
txt: ./txt/cord-310332-y10rqdy7.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-310332-y10rqdy7.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32317044/
doi: 10.1017/dmp.2020.115
summary:
  The model is built to predict the number of confirmed cases, recovered cases, and death cases based on the data available between January 22, 2020, and April 3, 2020. It is urgent to study the COVID-19 cases of China to prepare a situation report of India for the coming days so that the government, authorities, and citizens can take or implement the control measures proactively. This dataset includes the daily numbers of cumulative confirmed cases, recovered cases, and death cases from January 22, 2020, to April 3, 2020. The predictive model is built for predicting the daily number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in India. The number of death cases from COVID-19 is predicted to increase around April 5, 2020. Along the same lines as above, the model is built for predicting the daily number of recovered cases of COVID-19 in India, as shown in Figure 4 .

abstract:
  OBJECTIVE: The objective of this paper is to prepare the government and citizens of India to take or implement the control measures proactively to reduce the impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). METHOD: In this work, the COVID-19 outbreak in India has been predicted based on the pattern of China using a machine learning approach. The model is built to predict the number of confirmed cases, recovered cases, and death cases based on the data available between January 22, 2020, and April 3, 2020. The time series forecasting method is used for prediction models. RESULTS: The COVID-19 effects are predicted to be at peak between the third and fourth weeks of April 2020 in India. This outbreak is predicted to be controlled around the end of May 2020. The total number of predicted confirmed cases of COVID-19 might reach around 68 978, and the number of deaths due to COVID-19 are predicted to be 1557 around April 25, 2020, in India. If this outbreak is not controlled by the end of May 2020, then India will face a severe shortage of hospitals, and it will make this outbreak even worse. CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 pandemic may be controlled if the Government of India takes proactive steps to aggressively implement a lockdown in the country and extend it further. This presented epidemiological model is an effort to predict the future forecast of COVID-19 spread, based on the present scenario, so that the government can frame policy decisions, and necessary actions can be initiated.


id: cord-310856-9dc9bqv8
author: Bardhan, Pranab
date: 2020-06-30
txt: ./txt/cord-310856-9dc9bqv8.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-310856-9dc9bqv8.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1043951X20300274
doi: 10.1016/j.chieco.2020.101430
summary:
  Compared to other developing countries like India, it has special positive features of career incentives promoting growth at the local level, the ability to take long-term decisions relatively quickly, and a unique blend of political centralization and decentralization of economic power and responsibility, that is conducive to central guidance and local business development. On the other hand, with a lack of sufficient downward (as opposed to upward) accountability and absence of institutionalized systems of scrutiny and challenge from below, mistakes or abuse of power are more difficult to check and correct quickly, political loyalty may often get a premium over performance at the upper levels, and there are insufficient checks on collusion between business and officials. In any case such a general system of promotion has at least one important implication compared to other countries: Since performance incentives operate at least at the lower levels, higher-level leaders, even when they are selected on the basis of their loyalty to the current leadership at the top, are likely to have some measure of field-tested competence and experience.

title:
  The Chinese governance system: Its strengths and weaknesses in a comparative development perspective

abstract:
  Abstract This is an overview paper focusing on the organizational aspects of the Chinese governance system and their relation to development. Compared to other developing countries like India, it has special positive features of career incentives promoting growth at the local level, the ability to take long-term decisions relatively quickly, and a unique blend of political centralization and decentralization of economic power and responsibility, that is conducive to central guidance and local business development. On the other hand, with a lack of sufficient downward (as opposed to upward) accountability and absence of institutionalized systems of scrutiny and challenge from below, mistakes or abuse of power are more difficult to check and correct quickly, political loyalty may often get a premium over performance at the upper levels, and there are insufficient checks on collusion between business and officials. The over-all organizational system is prone to over-reaction in times of crisis and thus only weakly resilient compared to systems where information flows from below are less controlled or choked.


id: cord-310986-20x21k63
title: The potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the tuberculosis epidemic a modelling analysis
author: Cilloni, Lucia
date: 2020-10-24
txt: ./txt/cord-310986-20x21k63.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-310986-20x21k63.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589537020303473
doi: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2020.100603
summary:
  METHODS: We adapted mathematical models of TB transmission in three high-burden countries (India, Kenya and Ukraine) to incorporate lockdown-associated disruptions in the TB care cascade. If lockdown-related disruptions cause a temporary 50% reduction in TB transmission, we estimated that a 3-month suspension of TB services, followed by 10 months to restore to normal, would cause, over the next 5 years, an additional 1⋅19 million TB cases (Crl 1⋅06–1⋅33) and 361,000 TB deaths (CrI 333–394 thousand) in India, 24,700 (16,100–44,700) TB cases and 12,500 deaths (8.8–17.8 thousand) in Kenya, and 4,350 (826–6,540) cases and 1,340 deaths (815–1,980) in Ukraine. Fig. 4 shows how the size of this pool grows over time; the right-hand panel illustrates the potential impact of a two-month campaign to reduce the prevalence of untreated TB in India through expanded case finding to reach an monthly notification target of 17 per 100,000 population per month, immediately upon easing of lockdown restrictions (i.e., implemented alongside the restoration of TB services).

abstract:
  BACKGROUND: Routine services for tuberculosis (TB) are being disrupted by stringent lockdowns against the novel SARS-CoV-2 virus. We sought to estimate the potential long-term epidemiological impact of such disruptions on TB burden in high-burden countries, and how this negative impact could be mitigated. METHODS: We adapted mathematical models of TB transmission in three high-burden countries (India, Kenya and Ukraine) to incorporate lockdown-associated disruptions in the TB care cascade. The anticipated level of disruption reflected consensus from a rapid expert consultation. We modelled the impact of these disruptions on TB incidence and mortality over the next five years, and also considered potential interventions to curtail this impact. FINDINGS: Even temporary disruptions can cause long-term increases in TB incidence and mortality. If lockdown-related disruptions cause a temporary 50% reduction in TB transmission, we estimated that a 3-month suspension of TB services, followed by 10 months to restore to normal, would cause, over the next 5 years, an additional 1⋅19 million TB cases (Crl 1⋅06–1⋅33) and 361,000 TB deaths (CrI 333–394 thousand) in India, 24,700 (16,100–44,700) TB cases and 12,500 deaths (8.8–17.8 thousand) in Kenya, and 4,350 (826–6,540) cases and 1,340 deaths (815–1,980) in Ukraine. The principal driver of these adverse impacts is the accumulation of undetected TB during a lockdown. We demonstrate how long term increases in TB burden could be averted in the short term through supplementary “catch-up” TB case detection and treatment, once restrictions are eased. INTERPRETATION: Lockdown-related disruptions can cause long-lasting increases in TB burden, but these negative effects can be mitigated with rapid restoration of TB services, and targeted interventions that are implemented as soon as restrictions are lifted. FUNDING: USAID and Stop TB Partnership


id: cord-311054-dwns5l64
title: Evaluation and prediction of COVID-19 in India: a case study of worst hit states
author: Rafiq, Danish
date: 2020-06-19
txt: ./txt/cord-311054-dwns5l64.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-311054-dwns5l64.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960077920304124?v=s5
doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110014
summary:
  For example, in [12] , a data-driven estimation method like long short-term memory (LSTM) is used for the prediction of total number of COVID-19 cases in India for a 30-days ahead prediction window. The model is then used for the prediction of the total number of cases and deaths in most affected states of India for the next 30 days. To estimate the spread of COVID-19 in India, we used a Predictive Error Minimization (PEM) based system identification technique to identify a discrete-time, single-input, single-output (SISO) model [19] [20] [21] . The models were then verified on the testing data and upon validation, the models were used to predict the total number of cases and deaths for the next 30-days in the 10 worst hit states in India. As per our prediction based on data up to 17 th May 2020, Delhi along with other states would continue to see marginal surge in the number of COVID-19 cases owing to the relaxations in lock-down measures.

abstract:
  In this manuscript, system modeling and identification techniques are applied in developing a prognostic yet deterministic model to forecast the spread of COVID-19 in India. The model is verified with the historical data and a forecast of 30-days ahead is presented for the 10 most affected states of India. The major results suggest that our model can very well capture the disease variations with high accuracy. Results also show a steep rise in the total cumulative cases and deaths in the coming weeks.


id: cord-311114-ggcpsjk8
author: Radhakrishnan, Chandni
date: 2020-09-09
txt: ./txt/cord-311114-ggcpsjk8.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-311114-ggcpsjk8.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.09.09.289892
doi: 10.1101/2020.09.09.289892
summary:
  The rapid increase in the COVID-19 cases in the state of Kerala has necessitated the understanding of the genetic epidemiology of circulating virus, evolution, and mutations in SARS-CoV-2. The analysis identified 166 unique high-quality variants encompassing 4 novel variants and 89 new variants identified for the first time in SARS-CoV-2 samples isolated from India. Phylogenetic and haplotype analysis revealed that the circulating population of the virus was dominated (94.6% of genomes) by three distinct introductions followed by local spread, apart from identifying polytomies suggesting recent outbreaks. Further analysis of the functional variants revealed two variants in the S gene of the virus reportedly associated with increased infectivity and 5 variants that mapped to five primer/probe binding sites that could potentially compromise the efficacy of RT-PCR detection. In our analysis, we mapped the SARS-CoV-2 genetic variants obtained from Kerala genomes to the 132 primer or probes sequence and calculated the melting temperature (Tm) of the mutant with the wild type sequence.

title:
  Initial insights into the genetic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 isolates from Kerala suggest local spread from limited introductions

abstract:
  Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) rapidly spread from a city in China to almost every country in the world, affecting millions of individuals. Genomic approaches have been extensively used to understand the evolution and epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 across the world. Kerala is a unique state in India well connected with the rest of the world through a large number of expatriates, trade, and tourism. The first case of COVID-19 in India was reported in Kerala in January 2020, during the initial days of the pandemic. The rapid increase in the COVID-19 cases in the state of Kerala has necessitated the understanding of the genetic epidemiology of circulating virus, evolution, and mutations in SARS-CoV-2. We sequenced a total of 200 samples from patients at a tertiary hospital in Kerala using COVIDSeq protocol at a mean coverage of 7,755X. The analysis identified 166 unique high-quality variants encompassing 4 novel variants and 89 new variants identified for the first time in SARS-CoV-2 samples isolated from India. Phylogenetic and haplotype analysis revealed that the circulating population of the virus was dominated (94.6% of genomes) by three distinct introductions followed by local spread, apart from identifying polytomies suggesting recent outbreaks. The genomes formed a monophyletic distribution exclusively mapping to the A2a clade. Further analysis of the functional variants revealed two variants in the S gene of the virus reportedly associated with increased infectivity and 5 variants that mapped to five primer/probe binding sites that could potentially compromise the efficacy of RT-PCR detection. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first and most comprehensive report of genetic epidemiology and evolution of SARS-CoV-2 isolates from Kerala.


id: cord-311183-5blzw9oy
author: Malavika, B.
date: 2020-06-27
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32838058/
doi: 10.1016/j.cegh.2020.06.006
title:
  Forecasting COVID-19 epidemic in India and high incidence states using SIR and logistic growth models

abstract:
  BACKGROUND: Ever since the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak emerged in China, there has been several attempts to predict the epidemic across the world with varying degrees of accuracy and reliability. This paper aims to carry out a short-term projection of new cases; forecast the maximum number of active cases for India and select high-incidence states; and evaluate the impact of three weeks lock down period using different models. METHODS: We used Logistic growth curve model for short term prediction; SIR models to forecast the cumulative, maximum number of active cases and peak time; and Time Interrupted Regression model to evaluate the impact of lockdown and other interventions. RESULTS: The predicted cumulative number of cases for India was 58,912 (95% CI: 57,960, 59,853) by May 08, 2020 and the observed number of cases was 59,695. The model predicts a cumulative number of 1,02,974 (95% CI: 1,01,987, 1,03,904) cases by May 22, 2020 As per SIR model, the maximum number of active cases is projected to be 57,449 on May 18, 2020. The time interrupted regression model indicates a decrease of 149 daily new cases after the lock down period which is statistically not significant. CONCLUSION: The Logistic growth curve model predicts accurately the short-term scenario for India and high incidence states. The prediction through SIR model may be used for planning and prepare the health systems. The study also suggests that there is no evidence to conclude that there is a positive impact of lockdown in terms of reduction in new cases.


id: cord-311669-112kxj5s
author: Imdad, Kashif
date: 2020-11-08
url: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S187758452030068X?v=s5
doi: 10.1016/j.sste.2020.100390
title:
  A district-level susceptibility and vulnerability assessment of the COVID-19 pandemic's footprint in India

abstract:
  In this study, we trace the COVID-19 pandemic's footprint across India's districts. We identify its primary epicentres and the outbreak's imprint in India's hinterlands in four separate time-steps, signifying the different lockdown stages. We also identify hotspots and predict areas where the pandemic may spread next. Significant clusters in the country's western and northern parts pose risk, along with the threat of rising numbers in the east. We also perform epidemiological and socioeconomic susceptibility and vulnerability analyses, identifying resident populations that may be physiologically weaker, leading to a high incidence of cases and pinpoint regions that may report high fatalities due to ambient poor demographic and health-related factors. Districts with a high share of urban population and high population density face elevated COVID-19 risks. Aspirational districts have a higher magnitude of transmission and fatality. Discerning such locations can allow targeted resource allocation to combat the pandemic's next phase in India.


id: cord-311678-ydkv723m
author: Patra, Apurba
date: 2020-09-26
txt: ./txt/cord-311678-ydkv723m.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-311678-ydkv723m.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12565-020-00576-6
doi: 10.1007/s12565-020-00576-6
abstract: nan
summary:
  In India, country-wide lockdown was imposed on 23rd March, and since then the majority of universities and medical colleges had suspended face to face teaching, forcing teachers and students to move to online distance learning for an indefinite period. However, the teaching-learning of anatomy with cadaveric dissection has become almost non-existent in most medical schools due to the lack of the number of corpses compared with the growing number of students. In India, the scenario is completely different from European countries; till date, most of the Indian medical schools use cadaveric dissections as the prime source of teaching anatomy. Initially, it was the department of anatomy that started such a method of teaching and luckily our students found it very innovative and useful. The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on current anatomy education and future careers: a student''s perspective

title:
  COVID 19 reflection/experience on teaching–learning and assessment: story of anatomy teachers in India


id: cord-311745-jrc7hy2b
author: Sardar, Shaheen
date: 2020-09-29
txt: ./txt/cord-311745-jrc7hy2b.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-311745-jrc7hy2b.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1743919120307196?v=s5
doi: 10.1016/j.ijsu.2020.09.044
abstract: nan
summary:
  Whilst early containment measures have shown to reduce the number of patients who contract the virus (2), it has also highlighted several hard truths surrounding socioeconomic and political inequalities on regional levels which have been exacerbated during the lockdown period. Lockdown measures had somewhat different levels of success in the United Kingdom (UK) and India, which differ in their national economic income, with the latter considered a low-income and middle-income country (LMIC) (4) which may have been an influencing factor. In the UK this has been demonstrated with a report showing that mothers were 1.5 times more likely than fathers to have lost or quit their jobs within the quarantine period (8), again demonstrating how lockdown measures can be considered somewhat unsuccessful due to its negative social implications and exacerbation of health inequalities. However, more emphasis was required on the social, political, and economic factors of the public, which exacerbated the health inequalities that existed in both India and the UK.

title:
  ‘COVID-19 Lockdown: A protective measure or exacerbator of health inequalities? A comparison between the United Kingdom and India.’ A commentary on “The socio-economic implications of the coronavirus and COVID-19 pandemic: A review”


id: cord-312626-7xx0noxq
title: COVID-19 TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS IN INDIA WITH EXTENDED SEIR MODEL
author: MALI REDDY, B. R.
date: 2020-08-17
txt: ./txt/cord-312626-7xx0noxq.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-312626-7xx0noxq.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.08.15.20175703
doi: 10.1101/2020.08.15.20175703
summary:
  India population is divided into different clusters on the basis of population density and population mobility, even varying resource availability and since the recent cases are coming from throughout the country, it allows us to model an overall average of the country. In this study, we try to prove the efficiency of using the SEIR epidemiological model for different rate study analysis for COVID epidemic in India. But in later months, India has recorded big numbers in COVID tally and because of higher population density, cities like Mumbai, Delhi, Chennai and Ahmedabad contributed most of the numbers in the country''s total [7, 8] . In the SEIR Model, the transition from one compartment to another depends on the rate, probability and population. A basic SEIR model resembling the scale of COVID-19 transmission dynamics is divided into 4 population compartments:

abstract:
  India is one of the most harshly affected countries due to COVID epidemic. Early implementation of lockdown protocols were useful to control certain parameters of transmission dynamics, but the numbers are consistently increasing in later months. India population is divided into different clusters on the basis of population density and population mobility, even varying resource availability and since the recent cases are coming from throughout the country, it allows us to model an overall average of the country. In this study, we try to prove the efficiency of using the SEIR epidemiological model for different rate study analysis for COVID epidemic in India. Along with it we derived newer components for better forecast of the pandemic in India. We found that there is a decrease in R0 value, but still the epidemic is not under control. The percentage of infected patients being admitted into ICU for critical care is around 9.986%, while the chances of recovery of critical patients being admitted to the ICU seem to be slim at 79.9% of the admitted being dead.


id: cord-315801-hurpcc4e
title: COVID-19: are there lessons?
author: Yadava, Om Prakash
date: 2020-07-31
txt: ./txt/cord-315801-hurpcc4e.txt
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extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12055-020-01024-w
doi: 10.1007/s12055-020-01024-w
abstract: nan
summary:
  In fact, the entire official response to the pandemic was governed by all and sundry including paediatricians, gastroenterologists, dental surgeons and the likes, rather than the public health experts, who were nowhere to be seen, even in the horizon. We are still lucky that even though the disease is ravaging in the urban areas, it has largely spared the rural hinterland, but I fear it may not be for long, and at which stage, the deficiencies of the primary healthcare infrastructure in terms of primary health centres, community health centres and district hospitals will be exposed further. Lesson: Government must increase its allocation to health sector to at least 5% of GDP and focus on strengthening the primary care. This attitude needs to be changed and profit, albeit reasonable, should be accepted as ethical, moral and in fact a necessity for a vibrant and effective private healthcare system, to meet the health needs of the society.


id: cord-316065-fn64o0id
author: Kotian, Rahul P
date: 2020-05-25
txt: ./txt/cord-316065-fn64o0id.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-316065-fn64o0id.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32837806/
doi: 10.1007/s12553-020-00437-2
summary:
  An online cross-sectional survey during the rapid rise period of the COVID-19 outbreak was used to assess the knowledge and understanding among MIPs on COVID-19 in India between March 31, 2020 to April 05, 2020, the second week after the national lockdown. The overall questionnaire had 15 questions (Table 1) : regarding clinical presentations, regarding transmission routes and regarding prevention and control during Medical Imaging procedures of COVID-19. The questions regarding practices followed by the imaging professionals on considering air-exchange rate in imaging rooms, after scanning a suspected COVID-19 patient was unclear with respondents having mixed responses (15.5%) 15 min, (28.4%) 30 min, 1 (28.5%) and 2 (27.6%) hour respectively. Despite these limitations, the present study provides vital information about the knowledge and understanding of medical imaging professionals during the rapid rise period of COVID-19.

title:
  Knowledge and understanding among medical imaging professionals in India during the rapid rise of the covid-19 pandemic

abstract:
  During the first week of March,2020 the surge of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases reached all over the globe with more than 100,000 cases. Healthcare national and international authorities have already initiated awareness and lockdown activities. A poor understanding of the disease among medical imaging professionals (MIPs) may result in rapid spread of infection. This study aimed to investigate the knowledge and understanding of MIPs about COVID-19. A cross-sectional, web-based study was conducted among MIPs about COVID- 19 during the fourth week of March 2020. An online sample of MIPs was successfully recruited via the authors’ networks in India using data collection tool – write google forms. A self-developed online KAP questionnaire was completed by the participants. The knowledge and understanding questionnaire consisted questions regarding the clinical characteristics and transmission routes of COVID-19. Assessment on practices towards COVID-19 included questions on techniques while imaging against COVID-19 suspected patients. Of 700 participants, a total of 550 MIPs completed the survey (response rate: 78.57%); 56.7% were males, 85.4.1% were aged 17–26 years, and most were undergraduates (77.6%) and postgraduates (17.1%). Regarding COVID-19, most of the participants answered correctly (95.5%) on symptoms, (84.4%) time interval for visible symptoms, (98.0%) transmission and (44%) airborne transmission respectively. A significant proportion of MIPs (36.4%) had poor knowledge about wearing multiple masks as an effective measure against coronavirus infection. Most of the respondents (48.5%) incorrectly considered X-ray as the reliable method of diagnosis for suspected COVID-19 patients. 44.6% of the respondents lacked knowledge about the steps involved in hand washing technique which is one of the most important safety practice methods in medical imaging to prevent spread of infection. Factors such as age and occupation were associated with inadequate knowledge and poor perception of COVID-19. As the current global threat of COVID-19 continues to emerge, it is crucial and critical to improve the knowledge and understanding of MIPs. Educational videos and live webinars are urgently needed to reach MIPs and further detailed studies are the need of the hour. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s12553-020-00437-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.


id: cord-316450-iw35sorz
author: Gunjawate, Dhanshree R.
date: 2020-08-08
txt: ./txt/cord-316450-iw35sorz.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-316450-iw35sorz.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32838065/
doi: 10.1016/j.cegh.2020.07.009
summary:
  title: Impact of coronavirus disease 2019 on professional practices of audiologists and speech-language pathologists in India: A knowledge, attitude and practices survey The present study aimed to explore the impact of COVID-19 on the professional practices of Audiologists and Speech-Language Pathologists in India using a cross-sectional knowledge, attitude and practices survey. As members of health care, these professionals are expected to extend their services to patients and caregivers/bystanders exhibiting symptoms of COVID-19. Thus, it becomes relevant to know the impact of this outbreak and its associated symptoms on patient care and service delivery among Audiologists and Speech Language Pathologists. The present study was conducted with an aim to study the impact of COVID-19 on the professional practices of Audiologists and Speech Language The questionnaire comprising of 23 items; demographic details, knowledge and attitudes towards COVID-19, and practices related to infection control.

title:
  Impact of coronavirus disease 2019 on professional practices of audiologists and speech-language pathologists in India: A knowledge, attitude and practices survey

abstract:
  BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread throughout the world and become a global pandemic. This has hampered and led to drastic changes in the functioning of healthcare services, forcing the professionals to adapt and work efficiently. The present study aimed to explore the impact of COVID-19 on the professional practices of Audiologists and Speech-Language Pathologists in India using a cross-sectional knowledge, attitude and practices survey. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The study was conducted in two phases; phase one involved development and validation of the questionnaire, while phase II involved data collection. A cross-sectional self-reported internet-based study using convenience sampling was carried out. RESULTS: Two hundred and eleven Audiologists and Speech-Language Pathologists responded to the survey. Overall, the professionals exhibited good knowledge levels regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. However, there were differences in their attitudes towards service delivery in the midst of the pandemic. Further, poor practices towards infection control measures especially in terms of hand washing was noted. CONCLUSION: The findings of the present study are useful in highlighting the need to create better awareness among these professionals about appropriate and standard infection control measures. There is a need to have in place standard operating protocols for hand wash and infection control as well as inclusion in curriculum.


id: cord-316712-1ngcwdln
title: India’s Battle against COVID-19: Progress and Challenges
author: Laxminarayan, Ramanan
date: 2020-08-24
txt: ./txt/cord-316712-1ngcwdln.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-316712-1ngcwdln.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.4269/ajtmh.20-0992
doi: 10.4269/ajtmh.20-0992
abstract: India's Battle against COVID-19: Progress and Challenges.
summary:
  The first reported case of infection with the SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, in India was reported on January 30, 2020 in an Indian student evacuated from Wuhan, and the first death was reported on March 12, 2020. Model-based estimates 8 produced in March 2020 had indicated that a national lockdown could reduce the number of infections at the peak of the pandemic-expected in early May-by 70-80%, depending on the degree of public compliance with physical distancing. Mortality rates (based on reported cases and deaths) appear to be low in India, as they are in most countries in the region, perhaps indicative of both limited testing and other unexplained factors. 12 At the current time, India has conducted approximately 18,000 tests per million population, a rate that is a third that of South Africa, about 60% that of Nepal, and among the lowest of any large country.


id: cord-317781-rfr60we7
title: Mathematical Model Based COVID-19 Prediction in India and its Different States
author: Singh, J.
date: 2020-05-18
txt: ./txt/cord-317781-rfr60we7.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-317781-rfr60we7.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: http://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.05.16.20104232v1?rss=1
doi: 10.1101/2020.05.16.20104232
summary:
  Our study provides an insight into the possible number of expected patients and deaths in near future that may be of importance for the respective governments to be ready with the appropriate preventive measures and logistics to put appropriate infrastructure and medical facilities in place to manage the spread of deadly virus and go down the flattening curve. We use these ratios to find the future number of patients as well as deaths till 10 th June 2020. This sudden rise in the number of positive cases was due large number of pilgrims (~3500) returning to Punjab from Nanded Hazur CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.16.20104232 doi: medRxiv preprint 8 spread of this pandemic.

abstract:
  By employing the successive approximation method to the real-time data of India and its different states, we have predicted the bounds of the spread of COVID-19 in India and its various states. The calculated lower and upper bound of patients (deaths) till 10th June 2020 comes out to be 79496 (3835) and 241759 (7045), respectively. States like Delhi, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Punjab, Rajasthan and Tamil Nadu are the spike states as suggested by the range of expected COVID-19 patients and deaths. Impact of return of stranded pilgrims from Nanded (Maharashtra) has also been looked into in the case of Punjab. It has been found that Punjab may see ~ 5 times increase in the lower bound of expected patients till 10th June 2020 due to the return of pilgrims from Maharashtra. Our study provides an insight into the possible number of expected patients and deaths in near future that may be of importance for the respective governments to be ready with the appropriate preventive measures and logistics to put appropriate infrastructure and medical facilities in place to manage the spread of deadly virus and go down the flattening curve.


id: cord-318734-n0fcf9y9
author: Tyagi, R.
date: 2020-05-22
txt: ./txt/cord-318734-n0fcf9y9.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-318734-n0fcf9y9.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.17.20104588
doi: 10.1101/2020.05.17.20104588
summary:
  title: COVID 19: Real-time Forecasts of Confirmed Cases, Active Cases, and Health Infrastructure Requirements for India and its Majorly Affected States using the ARIMA model. In further analysis, based on predicted active cases, we estimated the requirement of isolation beds, ICU beds and ventilators for COVID-19 patients until June. Methods: We used ARIMA model, and Auto ARIMA model for forecasting confirmed and active cases till the end of June month using time series data of COVID-19 cases in India from March 14, 2020, to May 3 2020. In further analysis, based on predicted active cases, we estimated the requirement of isolation beds, ICU and ventilators for COVID-19 patients in the coming days. We used ARIMA model and Auto ARIMA model on the time series data of COVID-19 cases in India for forecasting the total confirmed and active cases till June end.

title:
  COVID 19: Real-time Forecasts of Confirmed Cases, Active Cases, and Health Infrastructure Requirements for India and its Majorly Affected States using the ARIMA model.

abstract:
  Background: COVID-19 is an emerging infectious disease which has been declared a Pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO) on March 11 2020. This pandemic has spread over the world in more than 200 countries. India is also adversely affected by this pandemic, and there are no signs of slowing down of the virus in coming time. The absence of a vaccine for COVID-19 is making the situation worse for the already overstretched Indian public health care system. Objective: This study is forecasting the confirmed and active cases for COVID-19 until June, using time series ARIMA model. In further analysis, based on predicted active cases, we estimated the requirement of isolation beds, ICU beds and ventilators for COVID-19 patients until June. Methods: We used ARIMA model, and Auto ARIMA model for forecasting confirmed and active cases till the end of June month using time series data of COVID-19 cases in India from March 14, 2020, to May 3 2020. We estimated requirement of ICU beds as 10%, Ventilators as 5% and isolation beds as 85% of the active cases predicted from our calculations. Results: We expect that India will be having 441896 confirmed cases (95% CI: 210240, 673552), 124712 active cases (95% CI: 68481, 180944) at the end of June based on our forecasts. Maharashtra, Punjab, Gujarat and Delhi (UT) will be the most affected states, having the highest number of active and confirmed cases at the end of June while Kerala is expected to have less than 1000 confirmed cases and no active cases at the end of June. We expect that India has to prepare 106006 isolation beds (95% CI: 58209, 153802), 12471 ICU beds (95% CI: 6848,18094) and 6236 ventilators (95% CI: 3424,9047) to accommodate the patients at the end of June. Discussion and Conclusion: Our forecasts show a very alarming situation for India in coming days and, the actual numbers can go higher than our estimates of confirmed cases as India is observing partial lockdown currently. In future, lockdown might be lifted, and in that case, there will be a surge in the number of daily confirmed and active cases. The requirement of isolation beds, ICUs and ventilators will also be increased in that scenario. Migrants returning to their homes due to loss of livelihood and income in the lockdown period may lead to a rise in the number of cases, which could not be accounted for in our projections. We suggest a Public-Private Partnership (PPP) model in the health sector to accommodate COVID-19 patients adequately and reduce the burden of the already overstretched Indian public health care system.


id: cord-318757-po0zpvw5
author: Beig, Gufran
date: 2020-08-22
url: https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/pii/S0013935120310185
doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2020.110121
title:
  COVID-19 and Environmental -Weather Markers: Unfolding Baseline Levels and Veracity of Linkages in Tropical India

abstract:
  The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), is rapidly spreading across the globe due to its contagion nature. We hereby report the baseline permanent levels of two most toxic air pollutants in top ranked mega cities of India. This could be made possible for the first time due to the unprecedented COVID-19 lockdown emission scenario. The study also unfolds the association of COVID-19 with different environmental and weather markers. Although there are numerous confounding factors for the pandemic, we find a strong association of COVID-19 mortality with baseline PM(2.5) levels (80% correlation) to which the population is chronically exposed and may be considered as one of the critical factors. The COVID-19 morbidity is found to be moderately anti-correlated with maximum temperature during the pandemic period (-56%). Findings although preliminary but provide a first line of information for epidemiologists and may be useful for the development of effective health risk management policies.


id: cord-319015-4s9776ap
title: COVID testing before every endoscopy: Is India ready for primetime?
author: Sundaram, Sridhar
date: 2020-05-19
txt: ./txt/cord-319015-4s9776ap.txt
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extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gie.2020.05.012
doi: 10.1016/j.gie.2020.05.012
abstract: nan
summary:
  title: COVID testing before every endoscopy: Is India ready for primetime? COVID has had its economic impact with hospitals cutting down on elective procedures, impacting patient care and also the revenue generated. One question that has remained largely unanswered in all guidelines is whether we should routinely test for COVID before elective and semiurgent endoscopies. 3 Average upper GI endoscopy costs in India is between Rs. 2000 to Rs. 4000 (~30 to 60 U.S. dollars). Meanwhile, average testing cost for Novel coronavirus PCR is Rs. 4500 (~60-65 U.S. dollars) in private laboratories. 4 The caveat is also that patients may not get detected in the early stages of the disease, leading to increased infections in the hospital. To conclude, we may still not be ready for primetime with PCR testing for all patients, largely because we may not need it in the first place at the moment.


id: cord-319804-i5oprni9
author: Mahajan, Ashutosh
date: 2020-07-28
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32834644/
doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110156
title:
  An Epidemic Model SIPHERD and its application for prediction of the spread of COVID-19 infection in India

abstract:
  Originating from Wuhan, China, in late 2019, and with a gradual spread in the last few months, COVID-19 has become a pandemic crossing 9 million confirmed positive cases and 450 thousand deaths. India is not only an overpopulated country but has a high population density as well, and at present, a high-risk nation where COVID-19 infection can go out of control. In this paper, we employ a compartmental epidemic model SIPHERD for COVID-19 and predict the total number of confirmed, active and death cases, and daily new cases. We analyze the impact of lockdown and the number of tests conducted per day on the prediction and bring out the scenarios in which the infection can be controlled faster. Our findings indicate that increasing the tests per day at a rapid pace (10k per day increase), stringent measures on social-distancing for the coming months and strict lockdown in the month of July all have a significant impact on the disease spread.


id: cord-320640-5m6sqwq8
title: COVID-19 Creating another problem? Sustainable solution for PPE disposal through LCA approach
author: Kumar, Harender
date: 2020-10-09
txt: ./txt/cord-320640-5m6sqwq8.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-320640-5m6sqwq8.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33071605/
doi: 10.1007/s10668-020-01033-0
summary:
  In the present work, Life Cycle Assessment of PPE kits has been performed using GaBi version 8.7 under two disposal scenarios, namely landfill and incineration (both centralized and decentralized) for six environmental impact categories covering overall impacts on both terrestrial and marine ecosystems, which includes Global Warming Potential (GWP), Human Toxicity Potential (HTP), Eutrophication Potential (EP), Acidification Potential (AP), Freshwater Aquatic Ecotoxicity Potential (FAETP) and Photochemical Ozone Depletion Potential (POCP). With reported cases of COVID-19 infected health and sanitation workers (Satheesh 2020 ; Hindustan times 2020; New India Express 2020), waste management of used infectious safety gears has become a critical component to restrict the spread of novel coronavirus (Bherwani et al. The effective management of coronavirus infectious waste, including PPEs, has been identified by as a key area of concern by regulatory agencies in India, with the release of waste handling-treatment-disposal guidelines generated during treatment-diagnosis-quarantine of COVID-19 patients (CPCB Revision 2020; Aggarwal 2020).

abstract:
  Amid COVID-19, there have been rampant increase in the use of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) kits by frontline health and sanitation communities, to reduce the likelihoods of infections. The used PPE kits, potentially being infectious, pose a threat to human health, terrestrial, and marine ecosystems, if not scientifically handled and disposed. However, with stressed resources on treatment facilities and lack of training to the health and sanitation workers, it becomes vital to vet different options for PPE kits disposal, to promote environmentally sound management of waste. Given the various technology options available for treatment and disposal of COVID-19 patients waste, Life Cycle Assessment, i.e., cradle to grave analysis of PPE provides essential guidance in identifying the environmentally sound alternatives. In the present work, Life Cycle Assessment of PPE kits has been performed using GaBi version 8.7 under two disposal scenarios, namely landfill and incineration (both centralized and decentralized) for six environmental impact categories covering overall impacts on both terrestrial and marine ecosystems, which includes Global Warming Potential (GWP), Human Toxicity Potential (HTP), Eutrophication Potential (EP), Acidification Potential (AP), Freshwater Aquatic Ecotoxicity Potential (FAETP) and Photochemical Ozone Depletion Potential (POCP). Considering the inventories of PPE kits, disposal of PPE bodysuit has the maximum impact, followed by gloves and goggles, in terms of GWP. The use of metal strips in face-mask has shown the most significant HTP impact. The incineration process (centralized−3816 kg CO2 eq. and decentralized−3813 kg CO2 eq.) showed high GWP but significantly reduced impact w.r.t. AP, EP, FAETP, POCP and HTP, when compared to disposal in a landfill, resulting in the high overall impact of landfill disposal compared to incineration. The decentralized incineration has emerged as environmentally sound management option compared to centralized incinerator among all the impact categories, also the environmental impact by transportation is significant (2.76 kg CO2 eq.) and cannot be neglected for long-distance transportation. Present findings can help the regulatory authority to delineate action steps for safe disposal of PPE kits.


id: cord-320685-zriofqez
author: Marbaniang, Ivan
date: 2020-08-13
txt: ./txt/cord-320685-zriofqez.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-320685-zriofqez.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-45412/v1
doi: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-45412/v1
summary:
  Taking into consideration the ndings of the two aforementioned recent meta-analyses; assuming that in a crisis like the COVID-19 pandemic, anxiety precedes depression; and recognizing that the two conditions co-occur frequently [19] , we sought to assess the burden of anxiety symptoms and their sources among PLHIV in Pune, India. The children used to earn by washing cars." (age range:50-60 years, cisgender woman, GAD-7 score: 10) b) Concerns associated with the imminent future Health-related: These were articulated as apprehensions about COVID-19 persistence continuing to endanger personal health, following reopening. Lastly, although we did not observe differences in GAD-7 scores by comorbidity or prior tuberculosis status, we are unable to comment on how mental health in such individuals will change over time given their higher risk for COVID-19 infection [44, 45] and what that will mean in terms of disengagement from care or HIV treatment outcomes for them.

title:
  The Burden of Anxiety During the COVID-19 Pandemic Among People Living with HIV (PLHIV) in Pune, India

abstract:
  Introduction : There is a dearth of data on anxiety related to the COVID-19 pandemic from people living with HIV (PLHIV). This is a cause of concern as anxiety is associated with antiretroviral therapy (ART) nonadherence. Globally, India has the third largest population of PLHIV and third highest number of COVID-19 cases which are rapidly increasing. Therefore, it is crucial to understand the burden of anxiety and its sources among Asian Indian PLHIV during this pandemic. Methods: We used data from a telephonically delivered assessment among PLHIV engaged in care at a tertiary healthcare associated antiretroviral therapy (ART) center in Pune, India. Assessments were conducted between April 21 and May 28, 2020, one month into the government mandated lockdown. GAD-7 was used to assess for anxiety over two-preceding weeks. Significant sociodemographic and clinical differences between groups (GAD-7<10 and GAD-7≥10) were assessed using Fisher’s exact and Wilcoxson rank sum tests, for categorical and continuous variables, respectively. Thematic analysis was employed to analyze an open-ended question that asked about the most pressing cause(s) of concern. Results : Of 167 PLHIV contacted, median age was 44 years (IQR:40 – 50), 60% (n=100) were cisgender women and 81% (n=135) had a monthly family income<200 USD. Thirty-eight percent (n=64) had prior history of tuberculosis and 27% (n=45) were living with another comorbidity. A fourth (25%, n=41) had GAD-7 scores indicative of generalized anxiety. PLHIV who had fewer remaining doses of ART had significantly higher GAD-7 scores compared to those that had more doses (p=0.05). Thematic analysis indicated that concerns were both health related and unrelated, and stated temporally. Present concerns were often also projected as future concerns. Conclusions : In a group of socioeconomically disadvantaged PLHIV, a fourth were found to have anxiety, that appeared to be influenced by concerns about ART availability. Furthermore, the persistence of sources of anxiety and therefore an increase in anxiety for these PLHIV is anticipated as the pandemic worsens in India. We recommend the regular utilization of short screening tools for anxiety to monitor and triage PLHIV as an extension of current HIV-services.


id: cord-320988-yjxbm4tn
title: Slum Livestock Agriculture
author: Correa, M.T.
date: 2014-08-21
txt: ./txt/cord-320988-yjxbm4tn.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-320988-yjxbm4tn.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/pii/B9780444525123001613
doi: 10.1016/b978-0-444-52512-3.00161-3
summary:
  Notwithstanding the risk of disease transmission, slum livestock agriculture plays an essential role in the livelihoods of people and deserves consideration in urban planning and policy making. Notwithstanding the sociocultural differences, slums have some common characteristics: poor housing, often illegitimately built on private or public land with poor drainage and unfit for agriculture; overcrowded conditions; limited access to potable water; poor sanitation and lack of sewage or waste removal; high numbers of domestic pets; and clandestine keeping of livestock. Food animals in slums are a public health concern due to their potential for transmitting zoonotic diseases, unsafe food products, the risk of physical injuries and traffic accidents, and environmental contamination. In more densely populated slums, fewer animals are kept and enterprises are likely to be small scale; where more land is available, livestock keeping is more common and on a larger scale (Box 1).

abstract:
  Slums are unplanned squatter human settlements in peri-urban and urban areas where more than 800 million people live. These densely populated areas lack basic public services. Livestock raised in these conditions compete with humans for space and water, and pose a risk to human and animal health. Notwithstanding the risk of disease transmission, slum livestock agriculture plays an essential role in the livelihoods of people and deserves consideration in urban planning and policy making.


id: cord-321447-b58mzk8p
title: Artificial Intelligence and One Health: Knowledge Bases for Causal Modeling
author: Pandit, Nitin
date: 2020-10-08
txt: ./txt/cord-321447-b58mzk8p.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-321447-b58mzk8p.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33046950/
doi: 10.1007/s41745-020-00192-3
summary:
  An appreciation of the process of discovery with incomplete information and a recognition of the role of observations gathered painstakingly by scientists in the field shows that simple databases will not be sufficient to build causal models of the complex relationships between human health and ecosystems. An appreciation of the process of discovery with incomplete information and a recognition of the role of observations gathered painstakingly by scientists in the field shows that simple databases will not be sufficient to build causal models of the complex relationships between human health and ecosystems. The research question is whether knowledge from disparate sources can be captured and utilized to create causal models which, in turn, are capable of generating hypotheses for a proactive response to ERIDs. Recent developments in ML and NN have proliferated in the data analytics community to solve many complex problems.

abstract:
  Scientists all over the world are moving toward building database systems based on the One Health concept to prevent and manage outbreaks of zoonotic diseases. An appreciation of the process of discovery with incomplete information and a recognition of the role of observations gathered painstakingly by scientists in the field shows that simple databases will not be sufficient to build causal models of the complex relationships between human health and ecosystems. Rather, it is important also to build knowledge bases which complement databases using non-monotonic logic based artificial intelligence techniques, so that causal models can be improved as new, and sometimes contradictory, information is found from field studies.


id: cord-322233-1i6zj9b3
author: Khurana, Sonal
date: 2020-10-01
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33024355/
doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.124466
title:
  Now is the time to press the reset button: Helping India’s companies to become more resilient and effective in overcoming the impacts of COVID-19, climate changes and other crises

abstract:
  COVID-19 is the pandemic caused by one of the coronaviruses. This virus was not known before the outbreak in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. By January of 2020 it was declared to be a global human health crisis. The deaths and illnesses caused by the virus caused extensive fear and anxiety among people in all societies. The pandemic slowed economic activities nearly to a halt. The challenges of how companies should respond to the disruptions in their supply chains and how they can build more resilient systems, must be systematically addressed. The authors of this paper highlighted essential factors which can help companies to overcome this crisis and other types of crises, by learning from the approaches taken in India, which has a unique and diverse economic system. The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) technique was used to identify the essential factors which can help companies to improve their resilience so they can recover during and after the COVID-19 pandemic era and potentially in other similar complex crises. The results of the AHP evaluation were prioritized by performing a sensitivity analysis to prioritize the essential factors. The “Role of governance” was found to be the most important factor that can be used to help in rebuilding industries and societies and in helping them to become more resilient to future severe shocks. The results of this research were used to develop recommendations for company managers, practitioners and policy-makers. The authors hope that this advice will help India to become a stronger nation with more resilient companies, which are better prepared to anticipate and to respond to future crises. We hope people in other nations will also benefit from the finding presented in this paper.


id: cord-322645-ipzntrm2
title: The local governance of COVID-19: Disease prevention and social security in rural India
author: Dutta, Anwesha
date: 2020-10-17
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url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33106724/
doi: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105234
summary:
  Importantly, instructions issued by the DM in order to implement policies related to disease control and social protection are ultimately The following sections further explore how local institutions have been operationalized to fulfill these activities as well as their implications -both for the structure and functions of panchayats in India as well as for the COVID-19 response and recovery. Through a combination of interviews with mid and low-level bureaucrats and a review of policy documents, we show how the urgency of COVID-19 response has galvanized new kinds of cross-sectoral and multi-scalar interaction between administrative units involved in coordinating responses, as local governments have assumed central responsibility in the implementation of disease control and social security mechanisms. Through a combination of interviews with mid and low-level bureaucrats and a review of policy documents, we show how the urgency of COVID-19 response has galvanized new kinds of cross-sectoral and multi-scalar interaction between administrative units involved in coordinating responses, as local governments have assumed central responsibility in the implementation of disease control and social security mechanisms.

abstract:
  Countries around the world have undertaken a wide range of strategies to halt the spread of COVID-19 and control the economic fallout left in its wake. Rural areas of developing countries pose particular difficulties for developing and implementing effective responses owing to underdeveloped health infrastructure, uneven state capacity for infection control, and endemic poverty. This paper makes the case for the critical role of local governance in coordinating pandemic response by examining how state authorities are attempting to bridge the gap between the need for rapid, vigorous response to the pandemic and local realities in three Indian states -- Rajasthan, Odisha, and Kerala. Through a combination of interviews with mid and low-level bureaucrats and a review of policy documents, we show how the urgency of COVID-19 response has galvanized new kinds of cross-sectoral and multi-scalar interaction between administrative units involved in coordinating responses, as local governments have assumed central responsibility in the implementation of disease control and social security mechanisms. Evidence from Kerala in particular suggests that the state’s long term investment in democratic local government and arrangements for incorporating women within grassroots state functions (through its Kudumbashree program) has built a high degree of public trust and cooperation with state actors, while local authorities embrace an ethic of care in the implementation of state responses. These observations, from the early months of the pandemic in South Asia, can serve as a foundation for future studies of how existing institutional arrangements and their histories pattern the long-term success of disease control and livelihood support as the pandemic proceeds. Governance, we argue, will be as important to understanding the trajectory of COVID-19 impacts and recovery as biology, demography, and economy.


id: cord-323371-a27okymx
title: Think “Big”: Strategizing Post-coronial Revival in India
author: Gupta, Dipankar
date: 2020-09-04
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url: https://doi.org/10.1007/s41027-020-00270-1
doi: 10.1007/s41027-020-00270-1
summary:
  The need, therefore, is to move away from small-scale industrial production to high-technology units which demand sophisticated enterprise, skills and knowledge. It says, unambiguously, and with refreshing candour, that the MSME sector lags behind because it lacks capital, skill, and the ability required for "compliance with international standards" (Ministry of Heavy Industries and Public Enterprises 2016: 2). The truth is that for industrial productivity to rise, innovations are essential, and to put them to work, an enterprise must have in-house skilled labour. While productivity is low in smaller units (Ramaswamy 2016) , when it comes to large enterprises, productivity per worker in India compares well with other countries (ibid: 8-9). India can insist that large Indian companies also audit their supply chain along with audit norms that are better suited to our conditions at home.

abstract:
  The pandemic has severely disrupted the economy, but this is also an opportunity to change direction. The distress one saw on the streets of workers leaving cities for their rural homes obviously signals the preponderance of informal labour, low-skilled jobs and lack of economic security. The need, therefore, is to move away from small-scale industrial production to high-technology units which demand sophisticated enterprise, skills and knowledge. This would mean the abandoning of threshold limitations in the labour laws as well as urging MSMEs to grow in size and become competitive enterprises.


id: cord-323816-3m1iu9j2
author: Singh, Awadhesh Kumar
date: 2020-08-27
txt: ./txt/cord-323816-3m1iu9j2.txt
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url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32891011/
doi: 10.1016/j.dsx.2020.08.032
summary:
  Emerging data clearly suggests, that associated comorbidities such as hypertension, diabetes, obesity, cardiovascular disease (CVD), cerebrovascular accident (CVA), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), asthma, chronic kidney disease (CKD) and malignancy are often associated with increase in severity and or mortality in patients with COVID-19. A Boolean search was carried out to find the prevalence of comorbidities and its outcome in patients with COVID-19 in PubMed, MedRxiv and Google Scholar J o u r n a l P r e -p r o o f databases up till August 23, 2020 using the specific keywords that include "SARS-CoV2" OR "COVID-19", AND "risk", "severity", "mortality", "obesity", "diabetes", "hypertension", "cardiovascular disease", "chronic kidney disease", "cancer", "chronic pulmonary disease", "developing countries". In this regard, our recent meta-analysis Table 1 summarizes the prevalence of comorbidities in patients with COVID-19 from the largest reported data from China, USA, UK, Italy, Mexico, Spain, Kuwait and India [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] .

title:
  Impact of COVID-19 and comorbidities on health and economics: Focus on developing countries and India

abstract:
  BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Presence of comorbidities in patients with Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have often been associated with increased in-hospital complications and mortality. Intriguingly, several developed countries with a higher quality of life have relatively higher mortality with COVID-19, compared to the middle- or low-income countries. Moreover, certain ethnic groups have shown a higher predilection to contract COVID-19, with heightened mortality. We sought to review the available literature with regards to impact of COVID-19 and comorbidities on the health and economics, especially in context to the developing countries including India. METHODS: A Boolean search was carried out in PubMed, MedRxiv and Google Scholar databases up till August 23, 2020 using the specific keywords to find the prevalence of comorbidities and its outcome in patients with COVID-19. RESULTS: All available evidence consistently suggests that presence of comorbidities is associated with a poor outcome in patients with COVID-19. Diabetes prevalence is highest in Indian COVID-19 patients compared to other countries. Majority of the patients with COVID-19 are asymptomatic ranging from 26 to 76%. CONCLUSIONS: Universal masking is the need of hour during unlock period. Low-income countries such as India, Brazil and Africa with less resources and an average socio-economic background, must adopt a strict policy for an affordable testing programs to trace, test, identify and home quarantine of asymptomatic cases. Despite the huge number of COVID-19 patients, India still has low volume research at the moment.


id: cord-324335-eoabmyg7
title: New solutions using natural products
author: Nicoletti, Marcello
date: 2020-08-21
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url: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B9780128187067000073
doi: 10.1016/b978-0-12-818706-7.00007-3
summary:
  Considering the enormous quantity of results and scientific data concerning the validation of medicinal and biological properties, the international scientific community included neem on the list of the top 10 plants to investigate and use for the sustainable development of the planet and the health of mankind (Tewari, 1992; Foster and Moser, 2000) . The plant drug is usually utilized exsiccated, or as a derived product, like an extract, resin or oil, which can be obtained as such, or be enriched in one or more constituents, which are considered responsible for the activity. In particular, considering insect-borne diseases, in vivo activity of neem seed oil (NSO) against malaria Plasmodium has also been reported (Dahiya et al., 2016; Trapanelli et al., 2016) .

abstract:
  Most antibiotics are derived from natural products, like penicillin, as well as recent insecticides, like pyrethroids. Secondary metabolites are produced by plants as ecological chemical mediators, and can therefore possess intrinsic physiological properties against other organisms. These benefits are far from being fully explored. In particular, attention is here focused on the multipurpose neem tree (Azadirachta indica), reporting several experiments of applications in the field of seed oil and neem cake. The latter product seems to be promising because of the low cost, the possible production on a large scale, and the selection of effects in favor of beneficial organisms. Neem cake is able to act on different sites, as required by integrated pest management. Several utilizations of neem products are reported and their potentiality evidenced. Some considerations in this chapter may appear distant from the title of the book, but only by applying the general natural rules can the reason of the single phenomenon be understood. Other studies on resistance mechanisms of Plasmodium are enabling new possible methods of control always based on natural products activity.


id: cord-325726-65xxevp3
title: Role of Additive Manufacturing in Medical Application COVID-19 Scenario: INDIA Case study
author: Patel, Piyush
date: 2020-11-12
txt: ./txt/cord-325726-65xxevp3.txt
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url: https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/pii/S027861252030193X
doi: 10.1016/j.jmsy.2020.11.006
summary:
  PPE refers to protective clothing, helmets, gloves, face shields, goggles, surgical masks, respirators, and other equipment designed to prevent wearer exposure to infection or illness in this COVID-19 pandemic. Indian Institute of Technology Madras-bolstered new businesses has created PPE, such as face shields (Fig. 5 )from 3D Printers just as generally accessible materials besides to protect healthcare professionals fighting COVID-19 [83, 84] . 3D printing shortens lead times during product development, brings down creation expenses, and engages designers and manufacturers to face more challenges with new 3D printed drone structures that give new expected applications to the innovation [150] . With restrictions on up close and personal clinical meetings in the COVID-19 pandemic and the difficulties looked by medical care frameworks in conveying patient care, innovations like telemedicine and smartphone are playing a key role [156] [157] [158] . How 3D Printing Can Prevent Spread of COVID-19 Among Healthcare Professionals During Times of Critical Shortage of Protective Personal Equipment

abstract:
  This paper reviews how the Additive Manufacturing (AM) industry played a key role in stopping the spread of the Coronavirus by providing customized parts on-demand quickly and locally, reducing waste and eliminating the need for an extensive manufacturer. The AM technology uses digital files for the production of crucial medical parts, which has been proven essential during the COVID-19 crisis. Going ahead, the 3D printable clinical model resources described here will probably be extended in various centralized model storehouses with new inventive open-source models. Government agencies, individuals, corporations and universities are working together to quickly development of various 3D-printed products especially when established supply chains are under distress, and supply cannot keep up with demand.


id: cord-326253-dddf5u75
title: Where Does Indian Medical Education Stand Amidst a Pandemic?
author: Patil, Poorvaprabha
date: 2020-08-26
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32923671/
doi: 10.1177/2382120520951606
abstract:
  The recent outbreak of COVID-19, declared a pandemic, has affected medical education globally. The scenario is no different for medical students in India as they find themselves at a crossroads in their careers, with clinical and elective postings called off. Missing out on the opportunity to learn from “first-hand” clinical observation stands to threaten the quality of medical education and learning procured by Indian medical students which is extremely essential to deal with the vast patient load that awaits them in their impending future as healthcare professionals. Is the Indian medical education system being able to cope with the challenges imposed by the increasing burden of COVID-19? The authors propose few administrative and on-ground interventions that must seek to work collectively with all government and private medical institutions in order to help students/interns and residents in coping with stress, anxiety or academic losses incurred due to the pandemic.


id: cord-327363-z30zoogs
author: Neve, D.
date: 2020-10-16
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url: http://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.10.14.20212563v1?rss=1
doi: 10.1101/2020.10.14.20212563
summary:
  In the current analysis, COVID-19 modeling is done for the Indian subcontinent based on the data collected for the total cases confirmed, daily recovered, daily deaths, total recovered and total deaths. Then different regression models like Polynomial Regression, Forest Regression, Support Vector Regression, Naive Bayes, were used to predict the situation till September 7, 2020 and an optimal model was proposed. Regression models are statistical sets of processes which are used to estimate or predict the target or dependent variable based on dependent variables. In Figure 10 , we have applied Random Forest Regression between total confirmed cases and number of days. We apply machine learning models to data set for predicting future values. Naive Bayes regression failed due to less accuracy and Random Forest ended up overfitting the data set. Prediction of new active cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic using multiple linear regression model Regression Model based COVID-19 outbreak predictions in India

title:
  On Modeling of COVID-19 for the Indian Subcontinent using Polynomial and Supervised Learning Regression

abstract:
  COVID-19, a recently declared pandemic by WHO has taken the world by storm causing catastrophic damage to human life. The novel cornonavirus disease was first incepted in the Wuhan city of China on 31st December 2019. The symptoms include fever, cough, fatigue, shortness of breath or breathing difficulties, and loss of smell and taste. Since the devastating phenomenon is essentially a time-series representation, accurate modeling may benefit in identifying the root cause and accelerate the diagnosis. In the current analysis, COVID-19 modeling is done for the Indian subcontinent based on the data collected for the total cases confirmed, daily recovered, daily deaths, total recovered and total deaths. The data is treated with total confirmed cases as the target variable and rest as feature variables. It is observed that Support vector regressions yields accurate results followed by Polynomial regression. Random forest regression results in overfitting followed by poor Bayesian regression due to highly correlated feature variables. Further, in order to examine the effect of neighbouring countries, Pearson correlation matrix is computed to identify geographic cause and effect.


id: cord-327745-nm8ladlm
author: Satyanarayana, Srinath
date: 2020-06-18
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url: https://doi.org/10.3390/tropicalmed5020101
doi: 10.3390/tropicalmed5020101
summary:
  title: An Opportunity to END TB: Using the Sustainable Development Goals for Action on Socio-Economic Determinants of TB in High Burden Countries in WHO South-East Asia and the Western Pacific Regions Along with enhancing measures aimed at achieving universal access to quality-assured diagnosis, treatment and prevention services, massive efforts are needed to mitigate the prevalence of health-related risk factors, preferably through broader actions on the determinants of the "exposure-infection-disease-adverse outcome" spectrum. Massive efforts are needed to mitigate the prevalence of health-related risk factors, preferably through broader actions on the determinants of the "exposure-infection-disease-adverse outcome" spectrum, such as health system strengthening, poverty alleviation, addressing socio-economic and gender inequality, limiting job loss and food insecurity, improving housing quality and reducing overcrowding.

title:
  An Opportunity to END TB: Using the Sustainable Development Goals for Action on Socio-Economic Determinants of TB in High Burden Countries in WHO South-East Asia and the Western Pacific Regions

abstract:
  The progress towards ending tuberculosis (TB) by 2035 is less than expected in 11 high TB burden countries in the World Health Organization South-East Asia and Western Pacific regions. Along with enhancing measures aimed at achieving universal access to quality-assured diagnosis, treatment and prevention services, massive efforts are needed to mitigate the prevalence of health-related risk factors, preferably through broader actions on the determinants of the “exposure-infection-disease-adverse outcome” spectrum. The aim of this manuscript is to describe the major socio-economic determinants of TB and to discuss how there are opportunities to address these determinants in an englobing manner under the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) framework. The national TB programs must identify stakeholders working on the other SDGs, develop mechanisms to collaborate with them and facilitate action on social-economic determinants in high TB burden geographical areas. Research (to determine the optimal mechanisms and impact of such collaborations) must be an integral part of this effort. We call upon stakeholders involved in achieving the SDGs and End TB targets to recognize that all goals are highly interlinked, and they need to combine and complement each other’s efforts to end TB and the determinants behind this disease.


id: cord-328172-wxsbbl7r
author: Bindra, Vimee
date: 2020-07-16
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url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32760174/
doi: 10.1007/s13224-020-01346-0
summary:
  title: Telemedicine for Women''s Health During COVID-19 Pandemic in India: A Short Commentary and Important Practice Points for Obstetricians and Gynaecologists CONCLUSION: Telemedicine has provided us the opportunity to manage women health problems and pregnancy concerns during this pandemic of COVID-19, except a few instances where face-to-face consultation or hospital visit is must. Known consequences of delayed access to healthcare due to lockdown and pandemic situation on pregnant women could be delay in identifying the warning signs, more maternal and neonatal deaths, less access to abortion facilities as patients are also scared to visit hospitals because of fear of contracting the infection. Telemedicine has provided us the opportunity to manage women health problems and pregnancy concerns during this pandemic of COVID-19, except a few instances where face to face consultation or hospital visit is must.

title:
  Telemedicine for Women’s Health During COVID-19 Pandemic in India: A Short Commentary and Important Practice Points for Obstetricians and Gynaecologists

abstract:
  BACKGROUND/PURPOSE OF STUDY: In view of restrictions on patients because of COVID-19 pandemic, face-to-face consultations are difficult. This short commentary tells us about the feasibility of telemedicine in this scenario in obstetrics and gynaecology. METHODS: The database from our teleconsultation application (Apollo 247 and Askapollo) was analysed to assess feasibility of telemedicine and to design a triage pathway to reduce hospital visits for non-emergency situations and also to identify emergency cases without delay during this lockdown phase. Existing guidelines by Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MOHFW), Government of India, were accessed. RESULTS: This was a single-doctor experience of 375 consultations done over 65 days. We also designed a triage pathway for obstetrics and gynaecology cases, and we discussed general practice for obstetricians and gynaecologists with its utility and limitations. CONCLUSION: Telemedicine has provided us the opportunity to manage women health problems and pregnancy concerns during this pandemic of COVID-19, except a few instances where face-to-face consultation or hospital visit is must. If we implement the triage pathway, we can minimize the risk of exposure for both patients and healthcare teams during COVID-19 pandemic.


id: cord-328509-l4yz1ude
title: Effect of restricted emissions during COVID-19 on air quality in India
author: Sharma, Shubham
date: 2020-08-01
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url: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138878
doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138878
summary:
  This paper also explores the possible scenario which could result in national capital region if similar control on anthropogenic emissions occurs in worst meteorology conditions using Weather Research Forecasting (WRF)-Air Quality Dispersion Modelling System (AERMOD). To study the changes in air quality during the lockdown period, the data from 22 cities covering different regions of India were analysed, i.e. Bhopal and Dewas in centre, Jorapokhar, Patna, Gaya, Brajrajnagar and Kolkata in the east, Faridabad, Amritsar, Jodhpur, Delhi, Agra, Kanpur and Varanasi in the north, Amravati, Bengaluru, Thiruvananthapuram and Chennai in the south, as well as Ahmedabad, Mumbai, Nagpur and Pune in the west. The potential health benefits in different cities due to change in concentrations were estimated using the excess risks associated with the pollutant loads during similar periods with and without lockdown. The effect on meteorology on the PM 2.5 concentrations in National Capital Region (NCR) of Delhi was studied using the Air Quality Dispersion Modelling System (AERMOD).

abstract:
  The effectiveness and cost are always top factors for policy-makers to decide control measures and most measures had no pre-test before implementation. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, human activities are largely restricted in many regions in India since mid-March of 2020, and it is a progressing experiment to testify effectiveness of restricted emissions. In this study, concentrations of six criteria pollutants, PM(10), PM(2.5), CO, NO(2), ozone and SO(2) during March 16th to April 14th from 2017 to 2020 in 22 cities covering different regions of India were analysed. Overall, around 43, 31, 10, and 18% decreases in PM(2.5), PM(10), CO, and NO(2) in India were observed during lockdown period compared to previous years. While, there were 17% increase in O(3) and negligible changes in SO(2). The air quality index (AQI) reduced by 44, 33, 29, 15 and 32% in north, south, east, central and western India, respectively. Correlation between cities especially in northern and eastern regions improved in 2020 compared to previous years, indicating more significant regional transport than previous years. The mean excessive risks of PM reduced by ~52% nationwide due to restricted activities in lockdown period. To eliminate the effects of possible favourable meteorology, the WRF-AERMOD model system was also applied in Delhi-NCR with actual meteorology during the lockdown period and an un-favourable event in early November of 2019 and results show that predicted PM(2.5) could increase by only 33% in unfavourable meteorology. This study gives confidence to the regulatory bodies that even during unfavourable meteorology, a significant improvement in air quality could be expected if strict execution of air quality control plans is implemented.


id: cord-328992-gkzfqmfv
title: We Are All Victims: Questionable Content and Collective Victimisation in the Digital Age
author: Chang, Lennon Y. C.
date: 2020-10-06
txt: ./txt/cord-328992-gkzfqmfv.txt
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url: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11417-020-09331-2
doi: 10.1007/s11417-020-09331-2
summary:
  The abuse of technology to create and disseminate questionable information is producing a new form of "collective violence" and "collective victimisation." The World Health Organisation has defined collective violence as "the instrumental use of violence by people who identify themselves as members of a group-whether this group is transitory or has a more permanent identity-against another group or set of individuals, in order to achieve political, economic or social objectives" (Zwi et al. In the space of a few months in early 2020 in India, there were a number of cases of questionable content regarding COVID-19, targeting different political parties and religions and which had an impact over the collective even though they were accessed individually 1 : It is evident that questionable content over social media in the form of fake news, misinformation, disinformation, propaganda and misconstrued satire have become a menace to reckon with.

abstract:
  Traditionally, the idea of being a victim is associated with a crime, accident, trickery or being duped. With the advent of globalisation and rapid growth in the information technology sector, the world has opened itself to numerous vulnerabilities. These vulnerabilities range from individual-centric privacy issues to collective interests in the form of a nation’s political and economic interests. While we have victims who can identify themselves as victims, there are also victims who can barely identify themselves as victims, and there are those who do not realise that they have become victims. Misinformation, disinformation, fake news and other methods of spreading questionable content can be regarded as a new and increasingly widespread type of collective victimisation. This paper, drawing on recent examples from India, examines and analyses the rationale and modus operandi—both methods and types—that lead us to regard questionable content as a new form of collective victimisation.


id: cord-330814-7incf20e
title: COVID-19 Pandemic: Knowledge and Perceptions of the Public and Healthcare Professionals
author: Parikh, Priyanka A
date: 2020-05-15
txt: ./txt/cord-330814-7incf20e.txt
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url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32550063/
doi: 10.7759/cureus.8144
summary:
  Background and objective The recent pandemic due to the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has become a major concern for the people and governments across the world due to its impact on individuals as well as on public health. Conclusion Most healthcare professionals and the general public that we surveyed were well informed about SARS-CoV-2 and have been taking adequate measures in preventing the spread of the same. Social media platforms arguably support the conditions necessary for attitude change by exposing individuals to correct, accurate, health-promoting messages from healthcare professionals In order to investigate community responses to SARS-CoV-2, we conducted this online survey among the general public and healthcare professionals to identify awareness of SARS-CoV-2 (perceived burden and risk), trusted sources of information, awareness of preventative measures and support for governmental policies and trust in authority to handle SARS-CoV-2 outbreak and put forward policy recommendations in case of similar future conditions.

abstract:
  Background and objective The recent pandemic due to the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has become a major concern for the people and governments across the world due to its impact on individuals as well as on public health. The infectiousness and the quick spread across the world make it an important event in everyone’s life, often evoking fear. Our study aims at assessing the overall knowledge and perceptions, and identifying the trusted sources of information for both the general public and healthcare personnel. Materials and methods This is a questionnaire-based survey taken by a total of 1,246 respondents, out of which 744 belonged to the healthcare personnel and 502 were laypersons/general public. There were two different questionnaires for both groups. The questions were framed using information from the World Health Organization (WHO), UpToDate, Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), Center for Disease Control (CDC), National Institute of Health (NIH), and New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) website resources. The questions assessed awareness, attitude, and possible practices towards ensuring safety for themselves as well as breaking the chain of transmission. A convenient sampling method was used for data collection. Descriptive statistics [mean(SD), frequency(%)] were used to portray the characteristics of the participants as well as their awareness, sources of information, attitudes, and practices related to SARS-CoV-2. Results The majority (94.3%) of the respondents were Indians. About 80% of the healthcare professionals and 82% of the general public were worried about being infected. Various websites such as ICMR, WHO, CDC, etc., were a major source of information for the healthcare professional while the general public relied on television. Almost 98% of healthcare professionals and 97% of the general public, respectively, identified ‘Difficulty in breathing” as the main symptom. More than 90% of the respondents in both groups knew and practiced different precautionary measures. A minority of the respondents (28.9% of healthcare professionals and 26.5% of the general public) knew that there was no known cure yet. Almost all respondents from both the groups agreed on seeking medical help if breathing difficulty is involved and self-quarantine if required. Conclusion Most healthcare professionals and the general public that we surveyed were well informed about SARS-CoV-2 and have been taking adequate measures in preventing the spread of the same. There is a high trust of the public in the government. There are common trusted sources of information and these need to be optimally utilized to spread accurate information.


id: cord-331092-eocse0xa
title: Can India develop herd immunity against COVID-19?
author: Gowrisankar, A.
date: 2020-06-26
txt: ./txt/cord-331092-eocse0xa.txt
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mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32834913/
doi: 10.1140/epjp/s13360-020-00531-4
summary:
  Hence, this paper applies multifractal formalism on COVID-19 data with the notion that country-specific infection rates follow a power law growth behaviour. According to the estimated generalized fractal dimension curves, the effects of drastic containment measures on the pandemic in India indicate that a significant reduction of the infection rate as its population is concern. The analysis made by using practical data shows that the power law kinetics with fractal exponent provides a better fit to the current data for the number of deaths and spared rate compared than the classical epidemiological approach that assumes an exponential growth of the disease [9] [10] [11] [12] . Hence, this paper applies the multifractal formalism on COVID-19 data with the notion that country-specific transmission rates follow a power law growth nature. Short-term predictions of country-specific Covid-19 infection rates based on power law scaling exponents

abstract:
  World Health Organization declared the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak to be a public health crisis of international concern. Further, it provided advice to the global community that countries should place strong measures to detect disease early, isolate and treat cases, trace contacts and promote “social distancing” measures commensurate with the risk. This study analyses the COVID-19 infection data from the top 15 affected countries in which we observed heterogeneous growth patterns of the virus. Hence, this paper applies multifractal formalism on COVID-19 data with the notion that country-specific infection rates follow a power law growth behaviour. According to the estimated generalized fractal dimension curves, the effects of drastic containment measures on the pandemic in India indicate that a significant reduction of the infection rate as its population is concern. Also, comparison results with other countries demonstrate that India has less death rate or more immunity against COVID-19.


id: cord-331143-e9h7tq0x
title: Contagion effect of COVID‐19 outbreak: Another recipe for disaster on Indian economy
author: Singh, Manish Kumar
date: 2020-05-27
txt: ./txt/cord-331143-e9h7tq0x.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-331143-e9h7tq0x.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32837319/
doi: 10.1002/pa.2171
summary:
  It is having a growing impact on the global economy and unfortunately, the global health crisis becomes a global economic crisis due to the cancel of flights, restriction on labour mobility and volatility in stock markets, fall in oil prices, and so on. The United States, China, Japan, Germany, Britain, France and Italy have contributed 60% of world supply and demand [gross domestic product (GDP)], 65% of world manufacturing, and 41% of world manufacturing exports (Baldwin & di Mauro, 2020) but unfortunately, these are in the top-10 most affected countries by COVID-19 except Japan (WTO, 28 March 2020). Based on the above discussion, we develop two main objectives in this study, firstly, we accommodate the theoretical linkages to evaluate potential broad channels through which COVID-19 could impact an emerging economy like India.

abstract:
  The global outbreak of COVID‐19 and subsequent lockdowns raises serious economic concern and havoc worldwide. This article tries to provide an economic perspective of COVID‐19 in India using some statistical figure of economic indicators. Analysis is based on the data collected for macro‐economy, travel & tourism, transportation, stock market, human capital and trade. Finding revel that India could experience a health debacle at present and excruciating economic contraction in the near future if the government is unable to execute a proper policy framework. Based on the discussion, a few policy suggestions have been presented to counter both health and economic crisis.


id: cord-332088-5c77h0of
title: Emerging horizon for bat borne viral zoonoses
author: Beena, V.
date: 2019-10-26
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url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31803797/
doi: 10.1007/s13337-019-00548-z
summary:
  In Asia and Pacific regions, bats were demonstrated as natural reservoirs for a large number of this types of emerging as well as re-emerging pathogens such as SARS, Ebola, Marburg, Nipha, Hendra, Tioman, Menangle, Australian bat lyssa virus, Rabies and many encephalitis causing viruses in humans and animals [2] . From bats the pathogen get transmitted to humans via intermediate hosts like horses(hendra) and pigs(nipah) and different species of animals get infected by consumption of partially eaten fruits of bats and the chewed out materials of bats after extracting the juice. The first report of a transmission of a viral disease from bats to humans was a rabies virus (RABV) belonging to the Lyssa virus genus [5] . Identification and complete genome analysis of three novel paramyxoviruses, Tuhoko virus 1, 2 and 3, in fruit bats from China

abstract:
  Bats are the only flying placental mammals that constitute the second largest order of mammals and present all around the world except in Arctic, Antarctica and a few oceanic islands. Sixty percent of emerging infectious diseases originating from animals are zoonotic and more than two-thirds of them originate in wildlife. Bats were evolved as a super-mammal for harboring many of the newly identified deadly diseases without any signs and lesions. Their unique ability to fly, particular diet, roosting behavior, long life span, ability to echolocate and critical susceptibility to pathogens make them suitable host to harbor numerous zoonotic pathogens like virus, bacteria and parasite. Many factors are responsible for the emergence of bat borne zoonoses but the most precipitating factor is human intrusions. Deforestation declined the natural habitat and forced the bats and other wild life to move out of their niche. These stressed bats, having lost foraging and behavioral pattern invade in proximity of human habitation. Either directly or indirectly they transmit the viruses to humans and animals. Development of fast detection modern techniques for viruses from the diseased and environmental samples and the lessons learned in the past helped in preventing the severity during the latest outbreaks.


