id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-187857-emgxp5wg	Gupta, Sourendu	Estimating the number of COVID-19 infections in Indian hot-spots using fatality data	2020-04-07		.txt	text/plain	3043	193	65	title: Estimating the number of COVID-19 infections in Indian hot-spots using fatality data Using counts of fatalities, and previously estimated parameters for the progress of the disease, we give statistical estimates of the infected population. We suggest a method for estimating epidemiological parameters for COVID-19 in different locations within a few days, so adding to the information required for gauging the success of public health interventions In this note we use a method to estimate the actual number of infections from the documented number of fatalities. We use statistical models for the progression of the disease from asymptomatic to resolution into recovery or fatality which are parametrized to fit reports. Using these we make predictions for the infected population now and in future for various scenarios for the exponential growth rate. From the data on the geographical distribution of fatalities in India, we identified four possible hot-spots for COVID-19.	./cache/cord-187857-emgxp5wg.txt	./txt/cord-187857-emgxp5wg.txt