id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-295712-35i0mhz4	Fox, Gregory J	Modelling the impact of COVID‐19 on intensive care services in New South Wales	2020-05-08		.txt	text/plain	783	48	48	A modelling group at Imperial College London, a WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, has modelled the effect of different mitigation policies upon peak healthcare demand. We applied the outcomes of the Imperial College model to the population of NSW, accounting for local demographic distribution. The trajectory of the epidemic, and the magnitude of peak ICU demand will be highly dependent upon the effectiveness of mitigation strategies. Further modelling is needed to inform resource planning for the COVID-19 epidemic in Australia, including for critical care services. 8,9 Figure 1 Table 2 shows the estimated cumulative hospitalisations, ICU admissions and deaths in one Local Health District (Sydney LHD) under an optimal mitigation scenario comprising case isolation, household quarantine and social distancing of over 70 year-olds. The timing and magnitude of the peak demand will be strongly dependent upon the effectiveness of mitigation strategies.	./cache/cord-295712-35i0mhz4.txt	./txt/cord-295712-35i0mhz4.txt