id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-280942-ej8fx52u	Daunizeau, J.	On the reliability of model-based predictions in the context of the current COVID epidemic event: impact of outbreak peak phase and data paucity	2020-04-29		.txt	text/plain	5643	294	50	title: On the reliability of model-based predictions in the context of the current COVID epidemic event: impact of outbreak peak phase and data paucity In particular, we evaluate the prediction accuracy of a recent SIR-type model that follows from augmenting the set of data to be explained (in particular, we focus on ICU occupancy and negative testing rates 3 , in addition to positive test results and death rates records), depending on whether the outbreak has already been observed or not. This effectively reduces the available data to the death and positive test counts, on which most model predictions rely, including outcomes of interest that are only indirectly informed by these data (e.g., acquired population immunity at the end of the current epidemic outbreak). In addition, we have shown that data paucity (in particular, ignoring ICU occupancy and negative test rates) can accentuate these prediction errors, even when the outbreak peak has already been observed.	./cache/cord-280942-ej8fx52u.txt	./txt/cord-280942-ej8fx52u.txt