id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-274688-cr1rvy8u	Jewell, Britta L	Potential effects of disruption to HIV programmes in sub-Saharan Africa caused by COVID-19: results from multiple mathematical models	2020-08-06		.txt	text/plain	1865	90	48	METHODS: In this modelling study, we used five well described models of HIV epidemics (Goals, Optima HIV, HIV Synthesis, an Imperial College London model, and Epidemiological MODeling software [EMOD]) to estimate the effect of various potential disruptions to HIV prevention, testing, and treatment services on HIV-related deaths and new infections in sub-Saharan Africa lasting 6 months over 1 year from April 1, 2020. FINDINGS: A 6-month interruption of supply of antiretroviral therapy (ART) drugs across 50% of the population of people living with HIV who are on treatment would be expected to lead to a 1·63 times (median across models; range 1·39–1·87) increase in HIV-related deaths over a 1-year period compared with no disruption. The HIV-related death rate for people living with HIV who were on ART, but who stopped treatment due to potential disruption on the antiretroviral (ARV) drug supply as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic was modeled to represent findings from the SMART Study (1).	./cache/cord-274688-cr1rvy8u.txt	./txt/cord-274688-cr1rvy8u.txt