id sid tid token lemma pos cord-266898-f00628z4 1 1 key key JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 2 1 : : : cord-266898-f00628z4 2 2 cord-266898-f00628z4 cord-266898-f00628z4 NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 2 3 authors author NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 2 4 : : : cord-266898-f00628z4 2 5 Nikitenkova Nikitenkova NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 2 6 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 2 7 S. S. NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 2 8 ; ; : cord-266898-f00628z4 2 9 Kovriguine Kovriguine NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 2 10 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 2 11 D. D. NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 2 12 A. a. NN cord-266898-f00628z4 3 1 title title NN cord-266898-f00628z4 3 2 : : : cord-266898-f00628z4 4 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-266898-f00628z4 4 2 's be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 4 3 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 4 4 very very JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 4 5 time time NN cord-266898-f00628z4 4 6 to to TO cord-266898-f00628z4 4 7 learn learn VB cord-266898-f00628z4 4 8 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 4 9 pandemic pandemic JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 4 10 lesson lesson NN cord-266898-f00628z4 4 11 : : : cord-266898-f00628z4 4 12 why why WRB cord-266898-f00628z4 4 13 have have VBP cord-266898-f00628z4 4 14 predictive predictive JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 4 15 techniques technique NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 4 16 been be VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 4 17 ineffective ineffective JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 4 18 when when WRB cord-266898-f00628z4 4 19 describing describe VBG cord-266898-f00628z4 4 20 long long JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 4 21 - - HYPH cord-266898-f00628z4 4 22 term term NN cord-266898-f00628z4 4 23 events event NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 4 24 ? ? . cord-266898-f00628z4 5 1 date date NN cord-266898-f00628z4 5 2 : : : cord-266898-f00628z4 5 3 2020 2020 CD cord-266898-f00628z4 5 4 - - HYPH cord-266898-f00628z4 5 5 06 06 CD cord-266898-f00628z4 5 6 - - HYPH cord-266898-f00628z4 5 7 03 03 CD cord-266898-f00628z4 5 8 journal journal NN cord-266898-f00628z4 5 9 : : : cord-266898-f00628z4 6 1 nan nan NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 6 2 DOI DOI NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 6 3 : : : cord-266898-f00628z4 6 4 10.1101/2020.06.01.20118869 10.1101/2020.06.01.20118869 CD cord-266898-f00628z4 7 1 sha sha NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 7 2 : : : cord-266898-f00628z4 8 1 6462c33fa7008ededf8b240fd2246c3ace57dd46 6462c33fa7008ededf8b240fd2246c3ace57dd46 CD cord-266898-f00628z4 8 2 doc_id doc_id CD cord-266898-f00628z4 9 1 : : : cord-266898-f00628z4 9 2 266898 266898 CD cord-266898-f00628z4 9 3 cord_uid cord_uid NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 9 4 : : : cord-266898-f00628z4 10 1 f00628z4 f00628z4 LS cord-266898-f00628z4 10 2 We -PRON- PRP cord-266898-f00628z4 10 3 have have VBP cord-266898-f00628z4 10 4 detected detect VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 10 5 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 10 6 regular regular JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 10 7 component component NN cord-266898-f00628z4 10 8 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 10 9 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 10 10 monitoring monitoring NN cord-266898-f00628z4 10 11 error error NN cord-266898-f00628z4 10 12 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 10 13 officially officially RB cord-266898-f00628z4 10 14 registered register VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 10 15 total total JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 10 16 cases case NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 10 17 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 10 18 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 10 19 spread spread NN cord-266898-f00628z4 10 20 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 10 21 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 10 22 current current JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 10 23 pandemic pandemic NN cord-266898-f00628z4 10 24 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 11 1 This this DT cord-266898-f00628z4 11 2 regular regular JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 11 3 error error NN cord-266898-f00628z4 11 4 component component NN cord-266898-f00628z4 11 5 explains explain VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 11 6 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 11 7 reason reason NN cord-266898-f00628z4 11 8 for for IN cord-266898-f00628z4 11 9 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 11 10 failure failure NN cord-266898-f00628z4 11 11 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 11 12 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 11 13 priori priori FW cord-266898-f00628z4 11 14 mathematical mathematical JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 11 15 modelling modelling NN cord-266898-f00628z4 11 16 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 11 17 probable probable JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 11 18 epidemic epidemic NN cord-266898-f00628z4 11 19 events event NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 11 20 in in IN cord-266898-f00628z4 11 21 different different JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 11 22 countries country NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 11 23 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 11 24 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 11 25 world world NN cord-266898-f00628z4 11 26 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 12 1 Processing process VBG cord-266898-f00628z4 12 2 statistical statistical JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 12 3 data datum NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 12 4 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 12 5 countries country NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 12 6 that that WDT cord-266898-f00628z4 12 7 have have VBP cord-266898-f00628z4 12 8 reached reach VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 12 9 an an DT cord-266898-f00628z4 12 10 epidemic epidemic NN cord-266898-f00628z4 12 11 peak peak NN cord-266898-f00628z4 12 12 has have VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 12 13 shown show VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 12 14 that that IN cord-266898-f00628z4 12 15 this this DT cord-266898-f00628z4 12 16 regular regular JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 12 17 monitoring monitoring NN cord-266898-f00628z4 12 18 obeys obey VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 12 19 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 12 20 simple simple JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 12 21 analytical analytical JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 12 22 regularity regularity NN cord-266898-f00628z4 12 23 which which WDT cord-266898-f00628z4 12 24 allows allow VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 12 25 us -PRON- PRP cord-266898-f00628z4 12 26 to to TO cord-266898-f00628z4 12 27 answer answer VB cord-266898-f00628z4 12 28 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 12 29 question question NN cord-266898-f00628z4 12 30 : : : cord-266898-f00628z4 12 31 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 12 32 this this DT cord-266898-f00628z4 12 33 or or CC cord-266898-f00628z4 12 34 that that DT cord-266898-f00628z4 12 35 country country NN cord-266898-f00628z4 12 36 that that WDT cord-266898-f00628z4 12 37 has have VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 12 38 already already RB cord-266898-f00628z4 12 39 passed pass VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 12 40 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 12 41 threshold threshold NN cord-266898-f00628z4 12 42 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 12 43 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 12 44 epidemic epidemic NN cord-266898-f00628z4 12 45 close close JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 12 46 to to IN cord-266898-f00628z4 12 47 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-266898-f00628z4 12 48 peak peak NN cord-266898-f00628z4 12 49 or or CC cord-266898-f00628z4 12 50 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 12 51 still still RB cord-266898-f00628z4 12 52 far far RB cord-266898-f00628z4 12 53 from from IN cord-266898-f00628z4 12 54 it -PRON- PRP cord-266898-f00628z4 12 55 ? ? . cord-266898-f00628z4 13 1 people people NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 13 2 desire desire VBP cord-266898-f00628z4 13 3 to to TO cord-266898-f00628z4 13 4 know know VB cord-266898-f00628z4 13 5 about about IN cord-266898-f00628z4 13 6 future future JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 13 7 epidemic epidemic NN cord-266898-f00628z4 13 8 events event NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 13 9 in in IN cord-266898-f00628z4 13 10 terms term NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 13 11 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 13 12 where where WRB cord-266898-f00628z4 13 13 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 13 14 how how WRB cord-266898-f00628z4 13 15 much much JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 13 16 and and CC cord-266898-f00628z4 13 17 when when WRB cord-266898-f00628z4 13 18 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 14 1 This this DT cord-266898-f00628z4 14 2 information information NN cord-266898-f00628z4 14 3 creates create VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 14 4 assurance assurance NN cord-266898-f00628z4 14 5 in in IN cord-266898-f00628z4 14 6 society society NN cord-266898-f00628z4 14 7 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 14 8 some some DT cord-266898-f00628z4 14 9 adequate adequate JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 14 10 understanding understanding NN cord-266898-f00628z4 14 11 and and CC cord-266898-f00628z4 14 12 effective effective JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 14 13 reaction reaction NN cord-266898-f00628z4 14 14 on on IN cord-266898-f00628z4 14 15 current current JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 14 16 events event NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 14 17 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 15 1 Studying study VBG cord-266898-f00628z4 15 2 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 15 3 history history NN cord-266898-f00628z4 15 4 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 15 5 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 15 6 pandemic pandemic NN cord-266898-f00628z4 15 7 in in IN cord-266898-f00628z4 15 8 detail detail NN cord-266898-f00628z4 15 9 will will MD cord-266898-f00628z4 15 10 undoubtedly undoubtedly RB cord-266898-f00628z4 15 11 contribute contribute VB cord-266898-f00628z4 15 12 to to IN cord-266898-f00628z4 15 13 fruitful fruitful JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 15 14 strategic strategic JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 15 15 thinking thinking NN cord-266898-f00628z4 15 16 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 16 1 The the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 16 2 practice practice NN cord-266898-f00628z4 16 3 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 16 4 recent recent JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 16 5 months month NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 16 6 has have VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 16 7 shown show VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 16 8 that that IN cord-266898-f00628z4 16 9 well well RB cord-266898-f00628z4 16 10 - - HYPH cord-266898-f00628z4 16 11 tested test VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 16 12 and and CC cord-266898-f00628z4 16 13 well well RB cord-266898-f00628z4 16 14 - - HYPH cord-266898-f00628z4 16 15 known know VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 16 16 mathematical mathematical JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 16 17 methods method NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 16 18 for for IN cord-266898-f00628z4 16 19 processing process VBG cord-266898-f00628z4 16 20 statistical statistical JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 16 21 data datum NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 16 22 directly directly RB cord-266898-f00628z4 16 23 used use VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 16 24 to to TO cord-266898-f00628z4 16 25 describe describe VB cord-266898-f00628z4 16 26 future future JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 16 27 events event NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 16 28 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 16 29 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 16 30 spread spread NN cord-266898-f00628z4 16 31 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 16 32 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 16 33 pandemic pandemic NN cord-266898-f00628z4 16 34 have have VBP cord-266898-f00628z4 16 35 been be VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 16 36 ineffective ineffective JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 16 37 in in IN cord-266898-f00628z4 16 38 solving solve VBG cord-266898-f00628z4 16 39 such such PDT cord-266898-f00628z4 16 40 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 16 41 flagrantly flagrantly RB cord-266898-f00628z4 16 42 important important JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 16 43 and and CC cord-266898-f00628z4 16 44 urgent urgent JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 16 45 problem problem NN cord-266898-f00628z4 16 46 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 17 1 Meanwhile meanwhile RB cord-266898-f00628z4 17 2 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 17 3 it -PRON- PRP cord-266898-f00628z4 17 4 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 17 5 no no DT cord-266898-f00628z4 17 6 secret secret NN cord-266898-f00628z4 17 7 that that IN cord-266898-f00628z4 17 8 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 17 9 aggregated aggregate VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 17 10 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 17 11 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 17 12 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 17 13 pandemic pandemic NN cord-266898-f00628z4 17 14 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 17 15 very very RB cord-266898-f00628z4 17 16 simple simple JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 17 17 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 17 18 it -PRON- PRP cord-266898-f00628z4 17 19 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 17 20 described describe VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 17 21 quite quite RB cord-266898-f00628z4 17 22 fully fully RB cord-266898-f00628z4 17 23 by by IN cord-266898-f00628z4 17 24 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 17 25 solution solution NN cord-266898-f00628z4 17 26 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 17 27 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 17 28 well well RB cord-266898-f00628z4 17 29 - - HYPH cord-266898-f00628z4 17 30 known know VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 17 31 logistic logistic JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 17 32 equation equation NN cord-266898-f00628z4 17 33 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 17 34 not not RB cord-266898-f00628z4 17 35 so so RB cord-266898-f00628z4 17 36 important important JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 17 37 whether whether IN cord-266898-f00628z4 17 38 it -PRON- PRP cord-266898-f00628z4 17 39 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 17 40 discrete discrete JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 17 41 or or CC cord-266898-f00628z4 17 42 differential differential JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 17 43 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 18 1 Neither neither CC cord-266898-f00628z4 18 2 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 18 3 more more RBR cord-266898-f00628z4 18 4 developed developed JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 18 5 versions version NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 18 6 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 18 7 this this DT cord-266898-f00628z4 18 8 mathemati- mathemati- NN cord-266898-f00628z4 19 1 Other other JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 19 2 promising promising JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 19 3 predictive predictive JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 19 4 technologies technology NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 19 5 based base VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 19 6 on on IN cord-266898-f00628z4 19 7 graph graph NN cord-266898-f00628z4 19 8 theory theory NN cord-266898-f00628z4 19 9 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 19 10 percolation percolation NN cord-266898-f00628z4 19 11 theory theory NN cord-266898-f00628z4 19 12 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 19 13 and and CC cord-266898-f00628z4 19 14 stochastic stochastic JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 19 15 processes process NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 19 16 turned turn VBD cord-266898-f00628z4 19 17 out out RP cord-266898-f00628z4 19 18 to to TO cord-266898-f00628z4 19 19 be be VB cord-266898-f00628z4 19 20 too too RB cord-266898-f00628z4 19 21 clumsy clumsy JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 19 22 or or CC cord-266898-f00628z4 19 23 incapable incapable JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 19 24 to to TO cord-266898-f00628z4 19 25 produce produce VB cord-266898-f00628z4 19 26 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 19 27 clear clear JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 19 28 and and CC cord-266898-f00628z4 19 29 concrete concrete JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 19 30 result result NN cord-266898-f00628z4 19 31 on on IN cord-266898-f00628z4 19 32 an an DT cord-266898-f00628z4 19 33 urgent urgent JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 19 34 issue issue NN cord-266898-f00628z4 19 35 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 20 1 In in IN cord-266898-f00628z4 20 2 other other JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 20 3 words word NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 20 4 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 20 5 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 20 6 available available JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 20 7 methods method NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 20 8 for for IN cord-266898-f00628z4 20 9 processing process VBG cord-266898-f00628z4 20 10 statistical statistical JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 20 11 data datum NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 20 12 were be VBD cord-266898-f00628z4 20 13 found find VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 20 14 to to TO cord-266898-f00628z4 20 15 be be VB cord-266898-f00628z4 20 16 helpless helpless JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 20 17 in in IN cord-266898-f00628z4 20 18 solving solve VBG cord-266898-f00628z4 20 19 an an DT cord-266898-f00628z4 20 20 important important JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 20 21 specific specific JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 20 22 problem problem NN cord-266898-f00628z4 20 23 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 21 1 The the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 21 2 paradox paradox NN cord-266898-f00628z4 21 3 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 21 4 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 21 5 apparent apparent JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 21 6 inefficiency inefficiency NN cord-266898-f00628z4 21 7 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 21 8 using use VBG cord-266898-f00628z4 21 9 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 21 10 known know VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 21 11 methods method NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 21 12 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 21 13 processing process VBG cord-266898-f00628z4 21 14 statistical statistical JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 21 15 data datum NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 21 16 to to TO cord-266898-f00628z4 21 17 obtain obtain VB cord-266898-f00628z4 21 18 an an DT cord-266898-f00628z4 21 19 adequate adequate JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 21 20 quantitative quantitative JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 21 21 result result NN cord-266898-f00628z4 21 22 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 21 23 even even RB cord-266898-f00628z4 21 24 though though RB cord-266898-f00628z4 21 25 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 21 26 it -PRON- PRP cord-266898-f00628z4 21 27 would would MD cord-266898-f00628z4 21 28 seem seem VB cord-266898-f00628z4 21 29 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 21 30 everything everything NN cord-266898-f00628z4 21 31 about about IN cord-266898-f00628z4 21 32 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 21 33 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 21 34 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 21 35 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 21 36 pandemic pandemic NN cord-266898-f00628z4 21 37 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 21 38 known know VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 21 39 qualitatively qualitatively RB cord-266898-f00628z4 21 40 in in IN cord-266898-f00628z4 21 41 advance advance NN cord-266898-f00628z4 21 42 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 22 1 Let let VB cord-266898-f00628z4 22 2 's -PRON- PRP cord-266898-f00628z4 22 3 try try VB cord-266898-f00628z4 22 4 to to TO cord-266898-f00628z4 22 5 understand understand VB cord-266898-f00628z4 22 6 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 22 7 main main JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 22 8 reasons reason NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 22 9 for for IN cord-266898-f00628z4 22 10 such such PDT cord-266898-f00628z4 22 11 an an DT cord-266898-f00628z4 22 12 unfortunate unfortunate JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 22 13 failure failure NN cord-266898-f00628z4 22 14 and and CC cord-266898-f00628z4 22 15 try try VB cord-266898-f00628z4 22 16 to to TO cord-266898-f00628z4 22 17 formulate formulate VB cord-266898-f00628z4 22 18 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 22 19 principles principle NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 22 20 for for IN cord-266898-f00628z4 22 21 overcoming overcome VBG cord-266898-f00628z4 22 22 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 22 23 current current JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 22 24 difficult difficult JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 22 25 situation situation NN cord-266898-f00628z4 22 26 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 23 1 First first RB cord-266898-f00628z4 23 2 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 23 3 all all DT cord-266898-f00628z4 23 4 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 23 5 what what WP cord-266898-f00628z4 23 6 does do VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 23 7 an an DT cord-266898-f00628z4 23 8 epidemic epidemic NN cord-266898-f00628z4 23 9 look look NN cord-266898-f00628z4 23 10 like like IN cord-266898-f00628z4 23 11 ? ? . cord-266898-f00628z4 24 1 In in IN cord-266898-f00628z4 24 2 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 24 3 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 24 4 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 24 5 development development NN cord-266898-f00628z4 24 6 and and CC cord-266898-f00628z4 24 7 spread spread NN cord-266898-f00628z4 24 8 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 24 9 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 24 10 epidemic epidemic NN cord-266898-f00628z4 24 11 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 24 12 similar similar JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 24 13 to to IN cord-266898-f00628z4 24 14 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 24 15 forest forest NN cord-266898-f00628z4 24 16 fire fire NN cord-266898-f00628z4 24 17 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 25 1 With with IN cord-266898-f00628z4 25 2 fire fire NN cord-266898-f00628z4 25 3 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 25 4 everything everything NN cord-266898-f00628z4 25 5 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 25 6 understood understand VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 25 7 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 25 8 little little JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 25 9 easier easy JJR cord-266898-f00628z4 25 10 due due IN cord-266898-f00628z4 25 11 to to IN cord-266898-f00628z4 25 12 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 25 13 obviousness obviousness NN cord-266898-f00628z4 25 14 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 25 15 this this DT cord-266898-f00628z4 25 16 phenomenon phenomenon NN cord-266898-f00628z4 25 17 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 26 1 No no DT cord-266898-f00628z4 26 2 one one NN cord-266898-f00628z4 26 3 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 26 4 trying try VBG cord-266898-f00628z4 26 5 to to TO cord-266898-f00628z4 26 6 delve delve VB cord-266898-f00628z4 26 7 into into IN cord-266898-f00628z4 26 8 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 26 9 physics physics NN cord-266898-f00628z4 26 10 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 26 11 combustion combustion NN cord-266898-f00628z4 26 12 and and CC cord-266898-f00628z4 26 13 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 26 14 nature nature NN cord-266898-f00628z4 26 15 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 26 16 fire fire NN cord-266898-f00628z4 26 17 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 26 18 for for IN cord-266898-f00628z4 26 19 people people NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 26 20 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 26 21 expectations expectation NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 26 22 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 26 23 ignition ignition NN cord-266898-f00628z4 26 24 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 26 25 adjacent adjacent JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 26 26 sections section NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 26 27 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 26 28 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 26 29 forest forest NN cord-266898-f00628z4 26 30 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 26 31 threats threat NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 26 32 to to IN cord-266898-f00628z4 26 33 human human JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 26 34 settlements settlement NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 26 35 are be VBP cord-266898-f00628z4 26 36 obvious obvious JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 26 37 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 26 38 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 26 39 assessment assessment NN cord-266898-f00628z4 26 40 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 26 41 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 26 42 forces force NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 26 43 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 27 1 CC CC NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 27 2 - - HYPH cord-266898-f00628z4 27 3 BY BY NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 27 4 - - HYPH cord-266898-f00628z4 27 5 NC NC NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 27 6 - - HYPH cord-266898-f00628z4 27 7 ND ND NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 27 8 4.0 4.0 CD cord-266898-f00628z4 27 9 International international JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 27 10 license license NN cord-266898-f00628z4 28 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-266898-f00628z4 28 2 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 28 3 made make VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 28 4 available available JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 28 5 under under IN cord-266898-f00628z4 28 6 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 29 1 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 29 2 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 29 3 author author NN cord-266898-f00628z4 29 4 / / SYM cord-266898-f00628z4 29 5 funder funder NN cord-266898-f00628z4 29 6 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 29 7 who who WP cord-266898-f00628z4 29 8 has have VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 29 9 granted grant VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 29 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 29 11 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 29 12 license license NN cord-266898-f00628z4 29 13 to to TO cord-266898-f00628z4 29 14 display display VB cord-266898-f00628z4 29 15 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 29 16 preprint preprint NN cord-266898-f00628z4 29 17 in in IN cord-266898-f00628z4 29 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-266898-f00628z4 29 19 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 30 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-266898-f00628z4 30 2 which which WDT cord-266898-f00628z4 30 3 was be VBD cord-266898-f00628z4 30 4 not not RB cord-266898-f00628z4 30 5 certified certify VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 30 6 by by IN cord-266898-f00628z4 30 7 peer peer NN cord-266898-f00628z4 30 8 review review NN cord-266898-f00628z4 30 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-266898-f00628z4 31 1 The the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 31 2 copyright copyright NN cord-266898-f00628z4 31 3 holder holder NN cord-266898-f00628z4 31 4 for for IN cord-266898-f00628z4 31 5 this this DT cord-266898-f00628z4 31 6 preprint preprint NN cord-266898-f00628z4 31 7 this this DT cord-266898-f00628z4 31 8 version version NN cord-266898-f00628z4 31 9 posted post VBD cord-266898-f00628z4 31 10 June June NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 31 11 3 3 CD cord-266898-f00628z4 31 12 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 31 13 2020 2020 CD cord-266898-f00628z4 31 14 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 31 15 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 32 1 and and CC cord-266898-f00628z4 32 2 means mean VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 32 3 necessary necessary JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 32 4 to to TO cord-266898-f00628z4 32 5 extinguish extinguish VB cord-266898-f00628z4 32 6 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 32 7 fire fire NN cord-266898-f00628z4 32 8 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 32 9 almost almost RB cord-266898-f00628z4 32 10 foreseeable foreseeable JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 32 11 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 33 1 The the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 33 2 epidemic epidemic NN cord-266898-f00628z4 33 3 does do VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 33 4 not not RB cord-266898-f00628z4 33 5 have have VB cord-266898-f00628z4 33 6 such such JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 33 7 striking strike VBG cord-266898-f00628z4 33 8 external external JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 33 9 manifestations manifestation NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 33 10 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 33 11 so so CC cord-266898-f00628z4 33 12 it -PRON- PRP cord-266898-f00628z4 33 13 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 33 14 insidious insidious JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 33 15 and and CC cord-266898-f00628z4 33 16 dangerous dangerous JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 33 17 especially especially RB cord-266898-f00628z4 33 18 for for IN cord-266898-f00628z4 33 19 ignorant ignorant JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 33 20 people people NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 33 21 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 33 22 in in IN cord-266898-f00628z4 33 23 which which WDT cord-266898-f00628z4 33 24 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 33 25 as as IN cord-266898-f00628z4 33 26 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 33 27 rule rule NN cord-266898-f00628z4 33 28 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 33 29 there there EX cord-266898-f00628z4 33 30 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 33 31 no no DT cord-266898-f00628z4 33 32 shortage shortage NN cord-266898-f00628z4 33 33 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 34 1 Besides besides RB cord-266898-f00628z4 34 2 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 34 3 decisive decisive JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 34 4 actions action NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 34 5 taken take VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 34 6 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 34 7 say say VB cord-266898-f00628z4 34 8 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 34 9 to to TO cord-266898-f00628z4 34 10 extinguish extinguish VB cord-266898-f00628z4 34 11 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 34 12 fire fire NN cord-266898-f00628z4 34 13 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 34 14 are be VBP cord-266898-f00628z4 34 15 completely completely RB cord-266898-f00628z4 34 16 inapplicable inapplicable JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 34 17 if if IN cord-266898-f00628z4 34 18 you -PRON- PRP cord-266898-f00628z4 34 19 try try VBP cord-266898-f00628z4 34 20 to to TO cord-266898-f00628z4 34 21 try try VB cord-266898-f00628z4 34 22 them -PRON- PRP cord-266898-f00628z4 34 23 on on RP cord-266898-f00628z4 34 24 to to TO cord-266898-f00628z4 34 25 combat combat VB cord-266898-f00628z4 34 26 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 34 27 epidemic epidemic NN cord-266898-f00628z4 34 28 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 35 1 In in IN cord-266898-f00628z4 35 2 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 35 3 absence absence NN cord-266898-f00628z4 35 4 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 35 5 vaccination vaccination NN cord-266898-f00628z4 35 6 and and CC cord-266898-f00628z4 35 7 other other JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 35 8 effective effective JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 35 9 medical medical JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 35 10 countermeasures countermeasure NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 35 11 to to IN cord-266898-f00628z4 35 12 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 35 13 spread spread NN cord-266898-f00628z4 35 14 and and CC cord-266898-f00628z4 35 15 development development NN cord-266898-f00628z4 35 16 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 35 17 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 35 18 epidemic epidemic NN cord-266898-f00628z4 35 19 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 35 20 quarantine quarantine NN cord-266898-f00628z4 35 21 seems seem VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 35 22 to to TO cord-266898-f00628z4 35 23 be be VB cord-266898-f00628z4 35 24 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 35 25 most most RBS cord-266898-f00628z4 35 26 effective effective JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 35 27 means mean NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 35 28 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 35 29 like like IN cord-266898-f00628z4 35 30 fifty fifty CD cord-266898-f00628z4 35 31 years year NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 35 32 ago ago RB cord-266898-f00628z4 35 33 and and CC cord-266898-f00628z4 35 34 earlier early RBR cord-266898-f00628z4 35 35 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 36 1 Self self NN cord-266898-f00628z4 36 2 - - HYPH cord-266898-f00628z4 36 3 isolation isolation NN cord-266898-f00628z4 36 4 and and CC cord-266898-f00628z4 36 5 social social JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 36 6 distancing distancing NN cord-266898-f00628z4 36 7 are be VBP cord-266898-f00628z4 36 8 effective effective JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 36 9 only only RB cord-266898-f00628z4 36 10 when when WRB cord-266898-f00628z4 36 11 each each DT cord-266898-f00628z4 36 12 member member NN cord-266898-f00628z4 36 13 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 36 14 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 36 15 society society NN cord-266898-f00628z4 36 16 realizes realize VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 36 17 that that IN cord-266898-f00628z4 36 18 any any DT cord-266898-f00628z4 36 19 action action NN cord-266898-f00628z4 36 20 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 36 21 even even RB cord-266898-f00628z4 36 22 if if IN cord-266898-f00628z4 36 23 it -PRON- PRP cord-266898-f00628z4 36 24 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 36 25 legitimate legitimate JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 36 26 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 36 27 borders border NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 36 28 on on IN cord-266898-f00628z4 36 29 risk risk NN cord-266898-f00628z4 36 30 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 37 1 To to TO cord-266898-f00628z4 37 2 understand understand VB cord-266898-f00628z4 37 3 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 37 4 reason reason NN cord-266898-f00628z4 37 5 for for IN cord-266898-f00628z4 37 6 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 37 7 failures failure NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 37 8 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 37 9 mathematical mathematical JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 37 10 modelling modelling NN cord-266898-f00628z4 37 11 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 37 12 we -PRON- PRP cord-266898-f00628z4 37 13 first first RB cord-266898-f00628z4 37 14 turn turn VBP cord-266898-f00628z4 37 15 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-266898-f00628z4 37 16 attention attention NN cord-266898-f00628z4 37 17 to to IN cord-266898-f00628z4 37 18 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 37 19 statistical statistical JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 37 20 data datum NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 37 21 used use VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 37 22 to to TO cord-266898-f00628z4 37 23 make make VB cord-266898-f00628z4 37 24 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 37 25 forecast forecast NN cord-266898-f00628z4 37 26 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 37 27 since since IN cord-266898-f00628z4 37 28 this this DT cord-266898-f00628z4 37 29 forecast forecast NN cord-266898-f00628z4 37 30 directly directly RB cord-266898-f00628z4 37 31 depends depend VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 37 32 on on IN cord-266898-f00628z4 37 33 them -PRON- PRP cord-266898-f00628z4 37 34 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 38 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-266898-f00628z4 38 2 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 38 3 not not RB cord-266898-f00628z4 38 4 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 38 5 revelation revelation NN cord-266898-f00628z4 38 6 that that IN cord-266898-f00628z4 38 7 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 38 8 for for IN cord-266898-f00628z4 38 9 completely completely RB cord-266898-f00628z4 38 10 natural natural JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 38 11 reasons reason NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 38 12 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 38 13 statistics statistic NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 38 14 are be VBP cord-266898-f00628z4 38 15 not not RB cord-266898-f00628z4 38 16 necessarily necessarily RB cord-266898-f00628z4 38 17 flawless flawless JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 38 18 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 39 1 Note note VB cord-266898-f00628z4 39 2 that that IN cord-266898-f00628z4 39 3 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 39 4 in in IN cord-266898-f00628z4 39 5 contrast contrast NN cord-266898-f00628z4 39 6 to to IN cord-266898-f00628z4 39 7 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 39 8 experimental experimental JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 39 9 data datum NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 39 10 that that WDT cord-266898-f00628z4 39 11 are be VBP cord-266898-f00628z4 39 12 dealt deal VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 39 13 with with IN cord-266898-f00628z4 39 14 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 39 15 say say UH cord-266898-f00628z4 39 16 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 39 17 in in IN cord-266898-f00628z4 39 18 physical physical JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 39 19 experiments experiment NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 39 20 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 39 21 data datum NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 39 22 on on IN cord-266898-f00628z4 39 23 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 39 24 epidemic epidemic NN cord-266898-f00628z4 39 25 situation situation NN cord-266898-f00628z4 39 26 can can MD cord-266898-f00628z4 39 27 not not RB cord-266898-f00628z4 39 28 be be VB cord-266898-f00628z4 39 29 redundant redundant JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 39 30 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 39 31 but but CC cord-266898-f00628z4 39 32 only only RB cord-266898-f00628z4 39 33 insufficient insufficient JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 39 34 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 40 1 Indeed indeed RB cord-266898-f00628z4 40 2 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 40 3 it -PRON- PRP cord-266898-f00628z4 40 4 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 40 5 difficult difficult JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 40 6 to to TO cord-266898-f00628z4 40 7 imagine imagine VB cord-266898-f00628z4 40 8 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 40 9 situation situation NN cord-266898-f00628z4 40 10 where where WRB cord-266898-f00628z4 40 11 redundant redundant JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 40 12 data datum NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 40 13 regularly regularly RB cord-266898-f00628z4 40 14 appears appear VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 40 15 in in IN cord-266898-f00628z4 40 16 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 40 17 monitoring monitoring NN cord-266898-f00628z4 40 18 summary summary NN cord-266898-f00628z4 40 19 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 40 20 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 40 21 number number NN cord-266898-f00628z4 40 22 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 40 23 newly newly RB cord-266898-f00628z4 40 24 detected detect VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 40 25 cases case NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 40 26 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 40 27 since since IN cord-266898-f00628z4 40 28 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 40 29 case case NN cord-266898-f00628z4 40 30 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 40 31 too too RB cord-266898-f00628z4 40 32 delicate delicate JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 40 33 to to TO cord-266898-f00628z4 40 34 allow allow VB cord-266898-f00628z4 40 35 such such JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 40 36 sloppiness sloppiness NN cord-266898-f00628z4 40 37 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 41 1 Most most RBS cord-266898-f00628z4 41 2 likely likely RB cord-266898-f00628z4 41 3 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 41 4 we -PRON- PRP cord-266898-f00628z4 41 5 should should MD cord-266898-f00628z4 41 6 expect expect VB cord-266898-f00628z4 41 7 that that IN cord-266898-f00628z4 41 8 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 41 9 data datum NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 41 10 will will MD cord-266898-f00628z4 41 11 be be VB cord-266898-f00628z4 41 12 underestimated underestimate VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 41 13 due due IN cord-266898-f00628z4 41 14 to to IN cord-266898-f00628z4 41 15 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 41 16 lack lack NN cord-266898-f00628z4 41 17 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 41 18 information information NN cord-266898-f00628z4 41 19 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 42 1 Therefore therefore RB cord-266898-f00628z4 42 2 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 42 3 it -PRON- PRP cord-266898-f00628z4 42 4 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 42 5 natural natural JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 42 6 to to TO cord-266898-f00628z4 42 7 assume assume VB cord-266898-f00628z4 42 8 that that IN cord-266898-f00628z4 42 9 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 42 10 data data NN cord-266898-f00628z4 42 11 contains contain VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 42 12 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 42 13 regular regular JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 42 14 error error NN cord-266898-f00628z4 42 15 component component NN cord-266898-f00628z4 42 16 with with IN cord-266898-f00628z4 42 17 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 42 18 deficiency deficiency NN cord-266898-f00628z4 42 19 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 43 1 Indeed indeed RB cord-266898-f00628z4 43 2 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 43 3 comprehensive comprehensive JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 43 4 pandemic pandemic NN cord-266898-f00628z4 43 5 data datum NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 43 6 can can MD cord-266898-f00628z4 43 7 only only RB cord-266898-f00628z4 43 8 be be VB cord-266898-f00628z4 43 9 obtained obtain VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 43 10 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 43 11 posteriori posteriori NN cord-266898-f00628z4 43 12 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 43 13 but but CC cord-266898-f00628z4 43 14 life life NN cord-266898-f00628z4 43 15 requires require VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 43 16 reliable reliable JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 43 17 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 43 18 priori priori FW cord-266898-f00628z4 43 19 information information NN cord-266898-f00628z4 43 20 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 44 1 To to TO cord-266898-f00628z4 44 2 achieve achieve VB cord-266898-f00628z4 44 3 this this DT cord-266898-f00628z4 44 4 goal goal NN cord-266898-f00628z4 44 5 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 44 6 it -PRON- PRP cord-266898-f00628z4 44 7 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 44 8 necessary necessary JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 44 9 to to TO cord-266898-f00628z4 44 10 identify identify VB cord-266898-f00628z4 44 11 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 44 12 evaluate evaluate VB cord-266898-f00628z4 44 13 and and CC cord-266898-f00628z4 44 14 study study VB cord-266898-f00628z4 44 15 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 44 16 mentioned mention VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 44 17 regular regular JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 44 18 component component NN cord-266898-f00628z4 44 19 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 44 20 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 44 21 error error NN cord-266898-f00628z4 44 22 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 44 23 using use VBG cord-266898-f00628z4 44 24 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 44 25 statistics statistic NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 44 26 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 44 27 those those DT cord-266898-f00628z4 44 28 countries country NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 44 29 that that WDT cord-266898-f00628z4 44 30 have have VBP cord-266898-f00628z4 44 31 already already RB cord-266898-f00628z4 44 32 reached reach VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 44 33 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 44 34 peak peak NN cord-266898-f00628z4 44 35 -the -the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 44 36 stationary stationary JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 44 37 level level NN cord-266898-f00628z4 44 38 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 44 39 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 44 40 epidemic epidemic NN cord-266898-f00628z4 44 41 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 44 42 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 45 1 Let let VB cord-266898-f00628z4 45 2 us -PRON- PRP cord-266898-f00628z4 45 3 take take VB cord-266898-f00628z4 45 4 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 45 5 logistic logistic JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 45 6 pattern pattern NN cord-266898-f00628z4 45 7 for for IN cord-266898-f00628z4 45 8 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 45 9 predicted predict VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 45 10 result result NN cord-266898-f00628z4 45 11 since since IN cord-266898-f00628z4 45 12 it -PRON- PRP cord-266898-f00628z4 45 13 requires require VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 45 14 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 45 15 minimum minimum NN cord-266898-f00628z4 45 16 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 45 17 information information NN cord-266898-f00628z4 45 18 for for IN cord-266898-f00628z4 45 19 modelling modelling NN cord-266898-f00628z4 45 20 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 45 21 i.e. i.e. FW cord-266898-f00628z4 45 22 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 45 23 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 45 24 initial initial JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 45 25 number number NN cord-266898-f00628z4 45 26 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 45 27 cases case NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 45 28 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 45 29 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 45 30 final final JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 45 31 peak peak NN cord-266898-f00628z4 45 32 number number NN cord-266898-f00628z4 45 33 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 45 34 and and CC cord-266898-f00628z4 45 35 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 45 36 number number NN cord-266898-f00628z4 45 37 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 45 38 days day NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 45 39 from from IN cord-266898-f00628z4 45 40 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 45 41 outbreak outbreak NN cord-266898-f00628z4 45 42 to to IN cord-266898-f00628z4 45 43 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-266898-f00628z4 45 44 peak peak NN cord-266898-f00628z4 45 45 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 46 1 One one PRP cord-266898-f00628z4 46 2 can can MD cord-266898-f00628z4 46 3 use use VB cord-266898-f00628z4 46 4 appropriate appropriate JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 46 5 data datum NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 46 6 to to TO cord-266898-f00628z4 46 7 build build VB cord-266898-f00628z4 46 8 these these DT cord-266898-f00628z4 46 9 logistic logistic JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 46 10 curves curve NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 46 11 , , . cord-266898-f00628z4 47 1 for for IN cord-266898-f00628z4 47 2 example example NN cord-266898-f00628z4 47 3 from from IN cord-266898-f00628z4 47 4 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 47 5 site site NN cord-266898-f00628z4 47 6 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 47 7 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 47 8 author author NN cord-266898-f00628z4 47 9 / / SYM cord-266898-f00628z4 47 10 funder funder NN cord-266898-f00628z4 47 11 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 47 12 who who WP cord-266898-f00628z4 47 13 has have VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 47 14 granted grant VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 47 15 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 47 16 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 47 17 license license NN cord-266898-f00628z4 47 18 to to TO cord-266898-f00628z4 47 19 display display VB cord-266898-f00628z4 47 20 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 47 21 preprint preprint NN cord-266898-f00628z4 47 22 in in IN cord-266898-f00628z4 47 23 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-266898-f00628z4 47 24 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 48 1 The the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 48 2 copyright copyright NN cord-266898-f00628z4 48 3 holder holder NN cord-266898-f00628z4 48 4 for for IN cord-266898-f00628z4 48 5 this this DT cord-266898-f00628z4 48 6 preprint preprint NN cord-266898-f00628z4 48 7 this this DT cord-266898-f00628z4 48 8 version version NN cord-266898-f00628z4 48 9 posted post VBD cord-266898-f00628z4 48 10 June June NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 48 11 3 3 CD cord-266898-f00628z4 48 12 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 48 13 2020 2020 CD cord-266898-f00628z4 48 14 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 48 15 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 49 1 parameters parameter NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 49 2 determined determine VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 49 3 from from IN cord-266898-f00628z4 49 4 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 49 5 tables table NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 49 6 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 50 1 The the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 50 2 transition transition NN cord-266898-f00628z4 50 3 time time NN cord-266898-f00628z4 50 4 from from IN cord-266898-f00628z4 50 5 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 50 6 state state NN cord-266898-f00628z4 50 7 i i PRP cord-266898-f00628z4 50 8 N N NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 50 9 to to IN cord-266898-f00628z4 50 10 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 50 11 state state NN cord-266898-f00628z4 51 1 1 1 LS cord-266898-f00628z4 52 1 i i PRP cord-266898-f00628z4 53 1 N N NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 53 2 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 53 3 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 53 4 day day NN cord-266898-f00628z4 53 5 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 53 6 but but CC cord-266898-f00628z4 53 7 it -PRON- PRP cord-266898-f00628z4 53 8 does do VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 53 9 not not RB cord-266898-f00628z4 53 10 play play VB cord-266898-f00628z4 53 11 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 53 12 significant significant JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 53 13 role role NN cord-266898-f00628z4 53 14 at at IN cord-266898-f00628z4 53 15 large large JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 53 16 numbers number NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 53 17 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 54 1 After after IN cord-266898-f00628z4 54 2 using use VBG cord-266898-f00628z4 54 3 simple simple JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 54 4 selection selection NN cord-266898-f00628z4 54 5 criteria criterion NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 54 6 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 54 7 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 54 8 obtained obtain VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 54 9 data data NN cord-266898-f00628z4 54 10 appears appear VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 54 11 as as IN cord-266898-f00628z4 54 12 tables table NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 54 13 and and CC cord-266898-f00628z4 54 14 graphs graph NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 54 15 [ [ -LRB- cord-266898-f00628z4 54 16 6 6 CD cord-266898-f00628z4 54 17 ] ] -RRB- cord-266898-f00628z4 54 18 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 55 1 Suppose suppose VB cord-266898-f00628z4 55 2 that that IN cord-266898-f00628z4 55 3 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 55 4 temporary temporary JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 55 5 evolution evolution NN cord-266898-f00628z4 55 6 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 55 7 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 55 8 epidemic epidemic NN cord-266898-f00628z4 55 9 in in IN cord-266898-f00628z4 55 10 countries country NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 55 11 possessing possess VBG cord-266898-f00628z4 55 12 highquality highquality JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 55 13 statistics statistic NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 55 14 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 55 15 adequately adequately RB cord-266898-f00628z4 55 16 described describe VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 55 17 by by IN cord-266898-f00628z4 55 18 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 55 19 solutions solution NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 55 20 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 55 21 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 55 22 logistic logistic JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 55 23 equation equation NN cord-266898-f00628z4 55 24 Let let VB cord-266898-f00628z4 55 25 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 55 26 infection infection NN cord-266898-f00628z4 55 27 rate rate NN cord-266898-f00628z4 55 28 be be VB cord-266898-f00628z4 55 29 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 55 30 specific specific JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 55 31 value value NN cord-266898-f00628z4 55 32 for for IN cord-266898-f00628z4 55 33 each each DT cord-266898-f00628z4 55 34 territory territory NN cord-266898-f00628z4 55 35 or or CC cord-266898-f00628z4 55 36 country country NN cord-266898-f00628z4 55 37 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 56 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-266898-f00628z4 56 2 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 56 3 easy easy JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 56 4 to to TO cord-266898-f00628z4 56 5 guess guess VB cord-266898-f00628z4 56 6 that that IN cord-266898-f00628z4 56 7 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 56 8 parameter parameter NN cord-266898-f00628z4 56 9 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 56 10 0 0 CD cord-266898-f00628z4 56 11 should should MD cord-266898-f00628z4 56 12 tend tend VB cord-266898-f00628z4 56 13 to to TO cord-266898-f00628z4 56 14 zero zero CD cord-266898-f00628z4 56 15 due due IN cord-266898-f00628z4 56 16 to to IN cord-266898-f00628z4 56 17 elementary elementary JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 56 18 statistical statistical JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 56 19 properties property NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 56 20 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 57 1 Thus thus RB cord-266898-f00628z4 57 2 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 57 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-266898-f00628z4 57 4 can can MD cord-266898-f00628z4 57 5 interpret interpret VB cord-266898-f00628z4 57 6 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 57 7 relative relative JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 57 8 indicator indicator NN cord-266898-f00628z4 57 9 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 57 10 0 0 CD cord-266898-f00628z4 57 11 /N /n SYM cord-266898-f00628z4 57 12 * * NFP cord-266898-f00628z4 57 13 as as IN cord-266898-f00628z4 57 14 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 57 15 quality quality NN cord-266898-f00628z4 57 16 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 57 17 statistical statistical JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 57 18 data datum NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 57 19 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 58 1 Always always RB cord-266898-f00628z4 58 2 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 58 3 positive positive JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 58 4 parameter parameter NN cord-266898-f00628z4 58 5 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 58 6 1 1 CD cord-266898-f00628z4 58 7 determines determine VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 58 8 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 58 9 maximum maximum JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 58 10 spread spread NN cord-266898-f00628z4 58 11 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 58 12 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 58 13 epidemic epidemic NN cord-266898-f00628z4 58 14 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 59 1 Let let VB cord-266898-f00628z4 59 2 it -PRON- PRP cord-266898-f00628z4 59 3 characterize characterize VB cord-266898-f00628z4 59 4 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 59 5 measure measure NN cord-266898-f00628z4 59 6 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 59 7 social social JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 59 8 hygiene hygiene NN cord-266898-f00628z4 59 9 inherent inherent JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 59 10 in in IN cord-266898-f00628z4 59 11 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 59 12 particular particular JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 59 13 country country NN cord-266898-f00628z4 59 14 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 60 1 The the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 60 2 critical critical JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 60 3 parameter parameter NN cord-266898-f00628z4 60 4 determining determine VBG cord-266898-f00628z4 60 5 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 60 6 stable stable JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 60 7 steady steady JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 60 8 - - HYPH cord-266898-f00628z4 60 9 state state NN cord-266898-f00628z4 60 10 N n CD cord-266898-f00628z4 60 11 * * NFP cord-266898-f00628z4 60 12 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 60 13 this this DT cord-266898-f00628z4 60 14 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 60 15 2 2 CD cord-266898-f00628z4 60 16 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 61 1 Note note VB cord-266898-f00628z4 61 2 that that IN cord-266898-f00628z4 61 3 abstract abstract JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 61 4 theories theory NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 61 5 connect connect VBP cord-266898-f00628z4 61 6 this this DT cord-266898-f00628z4 61 7 parameter parameter NN cord-266898-f00628z4 61 8 with with IN cord-266898-f00628z4 61 9 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 61 10 concept concept NN cord-266898-f00628z4 61 11 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 61 12 intraspecific intraspecific JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 61 13 competition competition NN cord-266898-f00628z4 61 14 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 61 15 but but CC cord-266898-f00628z4 61 16 in in IN cord-266898-f00628z4 61 17 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-266898-f00628z4 61 18 case case NN cord-266898-f00628z4 61 19 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 61 20 an an DT cord-266898-f00628z4 61 21 attempt attempt NN cord-266898-f00628z4 61 22 to to TO cord-266898-f00628z4 61 23 interpret interpret VB cord-266898-f00628z4 61 24 this this DT cord-266898-f00628z4 61 25 indicator indicator NN cord-266898-f00628z4 61 26 will will MD cord-266898-f00628z4 61 27 lead lead VB cord-266898-f00628z4 61 28 to to IN cord-266898-f00628z4 61 29 nothing nothing NN cord-266898-f00628z4 61 30 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 62 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-266898-f00628z4 62 2 remains remain VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 62 3 to to TO cord-266898-f00628z4 62 4 be be VB cord-266898-f00628z4 62 5 assumed assume VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 62 6 that that IN cord-266898-f00628z4 62 7 this this DT cord-266898-f00628z4 62 8 negative negative JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 62 9 parameter parameter NN cord-266898-f00628z4 62 10 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 62 11 an an DT cord-266898-f00628z4 62 12 indicator indicator NN cord-266898-f00628z4 62 13 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 62 14 medical medical JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 62 15 and and CC cord-266898-f00628z4 62 16 other other JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 62 17 useful useful JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 62 18 actions action NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 62 19 to to TO cord-266898-f00628z4 62 20 counteract counteract VB cord-266898-f00628z4 62 21 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 62 22 spread spread VB cord-266898-f00628z4 62 23 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 62 24 and and CC cord-266898-f00628z4 62 25 develop develop VB cord-266898-f00628z4 62 26 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 62 27 epidemic epidemic NN cord-266898-f00628z4 62 28 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 63 1 Now now RB cord-266898-f00628z4 63 2 let let VB cord-266898-f00628z4 63 3 's -PRON- PRP cord-266898-f00628z4 63 4 look look VB cord-266898-f00628z4 63 5 at at IN cord-266898-f00628z4 63 6 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 63 7 specific specific JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 63 8 example example NN cord-266898-f00628z4 63 9 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 63 10 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 63 11 epidemic epidemic NN cord-266898-f00628z4 63 12 history history NN cord-266898-f00628z4 63 13 in in IN cord-266898-f00628z4 63 14 one one CD cord-266898-f00628z4 63 15 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 63 16 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 63 17 countries country NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 63 18 that that WDT cord-266898-f00628z4 63 19 have have VBP cord-266898-f00628z4 63 20 reached reach VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 63 21 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 63 22 peak peak NN cord-266898-f00628z4 63 23 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 63 24 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 63 25 epidemic epidemic NN cord-266898-f00628z4 63 26 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 64 1 Let let VB cord-266898-f00628z4 64 2 it -PRON- PRP cord-266898-f00628z4 64 3 be be VB cord-266898-f00628z4 64 4 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 64 5 most most RBS cord-266898-f00628z4 64 6 affected affected JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 64 7 European european JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 64 8 country country NN cord-266898-f00628z4 64 9 today today NN cord-266898-f00628z4 64 10 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 64 11 Spain Spain NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 64 12 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 64 13 shown show VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 64 14 in in IN cord-266898-f00628z4 64 15 Fig Fig NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 64 16 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 65 1 1 1 LS cord-266898-f00628z4 65 2 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 65 3 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 66 1 CC CC NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 66 2 - - HYPH cord-266898-f00628z4 66 3 BY BY NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 66 4 - - HYPH cord-266898-f00628z4 66 5 NC NC NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 66 6 - - HYPH cord-266898-f00628z4 66 7 ND ND NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 66 8 4.0 4.0 CD cord-266898-f00628z4 66 9 International international JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 66 10 license license NN cord-266898-f00628z4 67 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-266898-f00628z4 67 2 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 67 3 made make VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 67 4 available available JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 67 5 under under IN cord-266898-f00628z4 67 6 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 68 1 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 68 2 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 68 3 author author NN cord-266898-f00628z4 68 4 / / SYM cord-266898-f00628z4 68 5 funder funder NN cord-266898-f00628z4 68 6 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 68 7 who who WP cord-266898-f00628z4 68 8 has have VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 68 9 granted grant VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 68 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 68 11 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 68 12 license license NN cord-266898-f00628z4 68 13 to to TO cord-266898-f00628z4 68 14 display display VB cord-266898-f00628z4 68 15 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 68 16 preprint preprint NN cord-266898-f00628z4 68 17 in in IN cord-266898-f00628z4 68 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-266898-f00628z4 68 19 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 69 1 The the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 69 2 copyright copyright NN cord-266898-f00628z4 69 3 holder holder NN cord-266898-f00628z4 69 4 for for IN cord-266898-f00628z4 69 5 this this DT cord-266898-f00628z4 69 6 preprint preprint NN cord-266898-f00628z4 69 7 this this DT cord-266898-f00628z4 69 8 version version NN cord-266898-f00628z4 69 9 posted post VBD cord-266898-f00628z4 69 10 June June NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 69 11 3 3 CD cord-266898-f00628z4 69 12 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 69 13 2020 2020 CD cord-266898-f00628z4 69 14 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 70 1 The the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 70 2 above above JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 70 3 graphs graph NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 70 4 show show VBP cord-266898-f00628z4 70 5 that that IN cord-266898-f00628z4 70 6 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 70 7 discrepancy discrepancy NN cord-266898-f00628z4 70 8 between between IN cord-266898-f00628z4 70 9 real real JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 70 10 data datum NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 70 11 and and CC cord-266898-f00628z4 70 12 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 70 13 forecast forecast NN cord-266898-f00628z4 70 14 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 70 15 most most RBS cord-266898-f00628z4 70 16 significant significant JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 70 17 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 70 18 starting start VBG cord-266898-f00628z4 70 19 from from IN cord-266898-f00628z4 70 20 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 70 21 early early JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 70 22 stages stage NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 70 23 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 70 24 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 70 25 epidemic epidemic NN cord-266898-f00628z4 70 26 until until IN cord-266898-f00628z4 70 27 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 70 28 inflexion inflexion NN cord-266898-f00628z4 70 29 point point NN cord-266898-f00628z4 70 30 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 70 31 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 70 32 logistic logistic JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 70 33 curve curve NN cord-266898-f00628z4 70 34 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 70 35 which which WDT cord-266898-f00628z4 70 36 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 70 37 appropriate appropriate JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 70 38 to to TO cord-266898-f00628z4 70 39 call call VB cord-266898-f00628z4 70 40 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 70 41 threshold threshold NN cord-266898-f00628z4 70 42 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 71 1 In in IN cord-266898-f00628z4 71 2 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 71 3 figures figure NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 71 4 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 71 5 this this DT cord-266898-f00628z4 71 6 threshold threshold NN cord-266898-f00628z4 71 7 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 71 8 indicated indicate VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 71 9 by by IN cord-266898-f00628z4 71 10 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 71 11 dotted dotted JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 71 12 line line NN cord-266898-f00628z4 71 13 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 72 1 Now now RB cord-266898-f00628z4 72 2 let let VB cord-266898-f00628z4 72 3 's -PRON- PRP cord-266898-f00628z4 72 4 try try VB cord-266898-f00628z4 72 5 to to TO cord-266898-f00628z4 72 6 evaluate evaluate VB cord-266898-f00628z4 72 7 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 72 8 absolute absolute JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 72 9 and and CC cord-266898-f00628z4 72 10 relative relative JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 72 11 forecasting forecasting NN cord-266898-f00628z4 72 12 error error NN cord-266898-f00628z4 72 13 graphically graphically RB cord-266898-f00628z4 72 14 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 72 15 as as IN cord-266898-f00628z4 72 16 shown show VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 72 17 in in IN cord-266898-f00628z4 72 18 Fig Fig NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 72 19 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 73 1 2 2 LS cord-266898-f00628z4 73 2 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 73 3 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 74 1 CC CC NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 74 2 - - HYPH cord-266898-f00628z4 74 3 BY BY NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 74 4 - - HYPH cord-266898-f00628z4 74 5 NC NC NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 74 6 - - HYPH cord-266898-f00628z4 74 7 ND ND NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 74 8 4.0 4.0 CD cord-266898-f00628z4 74 9 International international JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 74 10 license license NN cord-266898-f00628z4 75 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-266898-f00628z4 75 2 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 75 3 made make VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 75 4 available available JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 75 5 under under IN cord-266898-f00628z4 75 6 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 76 1 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 76 2 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 76 3 author author NN cord-266898-f00628z4 76 4 / / SYM cord-266898-f00628z4 76 5 funder funder NN cord-266898-f00628z4 76 6 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 76 7 who who WP cord-266898-f00628z4 76 8 has have VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 76 9 granted grant VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 76 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 76 11 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 76 12 license license NN cord-266898-f00628z4 76 13 to to TO cord-266898-f00628z4 76 14 display display VB cord-266898-f00628z4 76 15 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 76 16 preprint preprint NN cord-266898-f00628z4 76 17 in in IN cord-266898-f00628z4 76 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-266898-f00628z4 76 19 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 77 1 The the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 77 2 copyright copyright NN cord-266898-f00628z4 77 3 holder holder NN cord-266898-f00628z4 77 4 for for IN cord-266898-f00628z4 77 5 this this DT cord-266898-f00628z4 77 6 preprint preprint NN cord-266898-f00628z4 77 7 this this DT cord-266898-f00628z4 77 8 version version NN cord-266898-f00628z4 77 9 posted post VBD cord-266898-f00628z4 77 10 June June NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 77 11 3 3 CD cord-266898-f00628z4 77 12 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 77 13 2020 2020 CD cord-266898-f00628z4 77 14 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 78 1 This this DT cord-266898-f00628z4 78 2 illustration illustration NN cord-266898-f00628z4 78 3 shows show VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 78 4 that that DT cord-266898-f00628z4 78 5 absolute absolute JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 78 6 error error NN cord-266898-f00628z4 78 7 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 78 8 colossal colossal JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 78 9 throughout throughout IN cord-266898-f00628z4 78 10 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 78 11 history history NN cord-266898-f00628z4 78 12 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 78 13 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 78 14 epidemic epidemic NN cord-266898-f00628z4 78 15 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 79 1 The the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 79 2 relative relative JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 79 3 error error NN cord-266898-f00628z4 79 4 becomes become VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 79 5 acceptable acceptable JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 79 6 when when WRB cord-266898-f00628z4 79 7 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 79 8 absolute absolute JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 79 9 error error NN cord-266898-f00628z4 79 10 has have VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 79 11 passed pass VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 79 12 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-266898-f00628z4 79 13 maximum maximum JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 79 14 value value NN cord-266898-f00628z4 79 15 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 80 1 Fortunately fortunately RB cord-266898-f00628z4 80 2 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 80 3 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 80 4 actual actual JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 80 5 data data NN cord-266898-f00628z4 80 6 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 80 7 starting start VBG cord-266898-f00628z4 80 8 from from IN cord-266898-f00628z4 80 9 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 80 10 beginning beginning NN cord-266898-f00628z4 80 11 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 80 12 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 80 13 epidemic epidemic NN cord-266898-f00628z4 80 14 and and CC cord-266898-f00628z4 80 15 almost almost RB cord-266898-f00628z4 80 16 to to IN cord-266898-f00628z4 80 17 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 80 18 point point NN cord-266898-f00628z4 80 19 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 80 20 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 80 21 specified specify VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 80 22 maximum maximum NN cord-266898-f00628z4 80 23 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 80 24 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 80 25 well well RB cord-266898-f00628z4 80 26 described describe VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 80 27 by by IN cord-266898-f00628z4 80 28 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 80 29 exponential exponential JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 80 30 dependence dependence NN cord-266898-f00628z4 80 31 shown show VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 80 32 in in IN cord-266898-f00628z4 80 33 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 80 34 left left JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 80 35 part part NN cord-266898-f00628z4 80 36 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 80 37 Fig Fig NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 80 38 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 81 1 2 2 LS cord-266898-f00628z4 81 2 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 82 1 This this DT cord-266898-f00628z4 82 2 fact fact NN cord-266898-f00628z4 82 3 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 82 4 not not RB cord-266898-f00628z4 82 5 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 82 6 revelation revelation NN cord-266898-f00628z4 82 7 : : : cord-266898-f00628z4 82 8 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 82 9 behaviour behaviour NN cord-266898-f00628z4 82 10 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 82 11 real real JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 82 12 data datum NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 82 13 over over IN cord-266898-f00628z4 82 14 time time NN cord-266898-f00628z4 82 15 shown show VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 82 16 in in IN cord-266898-f00628z4 82 17 graphs graph NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 82 18 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 82 19 not not RB cord-266898-f00628z4 82 20 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 82 21 specific specific JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 82 22 feature feature NN cord-266898-f00628z4 82 23 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 82 24 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 82 25 history history NN cord-266898-f00628z4 82 26 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 82 27 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 82 28 epidemic epidemic NN cord-266898-f00628z4 82 29 in in IN cord-266898-f00628z4 82 30 Spain Spain NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 82 31 alone alone JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 82 32 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 83 1 The the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 83 2 authors author NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 83 3 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 83 4 some some DT cord-266898-f00628z4 83 5 works work NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 83 6 on on IN cord-266898-f00628z4 83 7 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 83 8 problem problem NN cord-266898-f00628z4 83 9 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 83 10 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 83 11 pandemic pandemic NN cord-266898-f00628z4 83 12 have have VBP cord-266898-f00628z4 83 13 noticed notice VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 83 14 this this DT cord-266898-f00628z4 83 15 pattern pattern NN cord-266898-f00628z4 83 16 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 83 17 but but CC cord-266898-f00628z4 83 18 link link VBP cord-266898-f00628z4 83 19 this this DT cord-266898-f00628z4 83 20 regular regular JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 83 21 exponential exponential JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 83 22 component component NN cord-266898-f00628z4 83 23 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 83 24 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 83 25 error error NN cord-266898-f00628z4 83 26 with with IN cord-266898-f00628z4 83 27 useful useful JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 83 28 medical medical JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 83 29 intervention intervention NN cord-266898-f00628z4 83 30 in in IN cord-266898-f00628z4 83 31 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 83 32 course course NN cord-266898-f00628z4 83 33 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 83 34 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 83 35 early early JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 83 36 stages stage NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 83 37 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 83 38 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 83 39 epidemic epidemic NN cord-266898-f00628z4 83 40 [ [ -LRB- cord-266898-f00628z4 83 41 7 7 CD cord-266898-f00628z4 83 42 ] ] -RRB- cord-266898-f00628z4 83 43 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 84 1 However however RB cord-266898-f00628z4 84 2 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 84 3 it -PRON- PRP cord-266898-f00628z4 84 4 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 84 5 easier easy JJR cord-266898-f00628z4 84 6 to to TO cord-266898-f00628z4 84 7 assume assume VB cord-266898-f00628z4 84 8 that that IN cord-266898-f00628z4 84 9 this this DT cord-266898-f00628z4 84 10 unavoidable unavoidable JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 84 11 regular regular JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 84 12 error error NN cord-266898-f00628z4 84 13 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 84 14 due due JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 84 15 only only RB cord-266898-f00628z4 84 16 to to IN cord-266898-f00628z4 84 17 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 84 18 specifics specific NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 84 19 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 84 20 data datum NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 84 21 monitoring monitoring NN cord-266898-f00628z4 84 22 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 85 1 Moreover moreover RB cord-266898-f00628z4 85 2 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 85 3 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 85 4 analytical analytical JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 85 5 approximation approximation NN cord-266898-f00628z4 85 6 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 85 7 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 85 8 input input NN cord-266898-f00628z4 85 9 data datum NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 85 10 set set NN cord-266898-f00628z4 85 11 continues continue VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 85 12 further further RB cord-266898-f00628z4 85 13 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 85 14 starting start VBG cord-266898-f00628z4 85 15 from from IN cord-266898-f00628z4 85 16 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 85 17 point point NN cord-266898-f00628z4 85 18 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 85 19 maximum maximum JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 85 20 absolute absolute JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 85 21 error error NN cord-266898-f00628z4 85 22 up up IN cord-266898-f00628z4 85 23 to to IN cord-266898-f00628z4 85 24 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 85 25 inflexion inflexion NN cord-266898-f00628z4 85 26 point point NN cord-266898-f00628z4 85 27 [ [ -LRB- cord-266898-f00628z4 85 28 8 8 CD cord-266898-f00628z4 85 29 ] ] -RRB- cord-266898-f00628z4 85 30 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 85 31 [ [ -LRB- cord-266898-f00628z4 85 32 9 9 CD cord-266898-f00628z4 85 33 ] ] -RRB- cord-266898-f00628z4 85 34 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 85 35 [ [ -LRB- cord-266898-f00628z4 85 36 10 10 CD cord-266898-f00628z4 85 37 ] ] -RRB- cord-266898-f00628z4 85 38 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 86 1 Figure figure NN cord-266898-f00628z4 86 2 3 3 CD cord-266898-f00628z4 86 3 shows show VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 86 4 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 86 5 power power NN cord-266898-f00628z4 86 6 fit fit JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 86 7 on on IN cord-266898-f00628z4 86 8 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 86 9 indicated indicate VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 86 10 time time NN cord-266898-f00628z4 86 11 interval interval NN cord-266898-f00628z4 86 12 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 86 13 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 87 1 CC CC NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 87 2 - - HYPH cord-266898-f00628z4 87 3 BY BY NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 87 4 - - HYPH cord-266898-f00628z4 87 5 NC NC NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 87 6 - - HYPH cord-266898-f00628z4 87 7 ND ND NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 87 8 4.0 4.0 CD cord-266898-f00628z4 87 9 International international JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 87 10 license license NN cord-266898-f00628z4 88 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-266898-f00628z4 88 2 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 88 3 made make VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 88 4 available available JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 88 5 under under IN cord-266898-f00628z4 88 6 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 89 1 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 89 2 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 89 3 author author NN cord-266898-f00628z4 89 4 / / SYM cord-266898-f00628z4 89 5 funder funder NN cord-266898-f00628z4 89 6 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 89 7 who who WP cord-266898-f00628z4 89 8 has have VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 89 9 granted grant VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 89 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 89 11 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 89 12 license license NN cord-266898-f00628z4 89 13 to to TO cord-266898-f00628z4 89 14 display display VB cord-266898-f00628z4 89 15 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 89 16 preprint preprint NN cord-266898-f00628z4 89 17 in in IN cord-266898-f00628z4 89 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-266898-f00628z4 89 19 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 90 1 The the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 90 2 copyright copyright NN cord-266898-f00628z4 90 3 holder holder NN cord-266898-f00628z4 90 4 for for IN cord-266898-f00628z4 90 5 this this DT cord-266898-f00628z4 90 6 preprint preprint NN cord-266898-f00628z4 90 7 this this DT cord-266898-f00628z4 90 8 version version NN cord-266898-f00628z4 90 9 posted post VBD cord-266898-f00628z4 90 10 June June NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 90 11 3 3 CD cord-266898-f00628z4 90 12 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 90 13 2020 2020 CD cord-266898-f00628z4 90 14 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 90 15 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 91 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.01.20118869 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.01.20118869 NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 91 2 doi doi NN cord-266898-f00628z4 91 3 : : : cord-266898-f00628z4 92 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 92 2 preprint preprint NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 93 1 These these DT cord-266898-f00628z4 93 2 graphs graph NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 93 3 show show VBP cord-266898-f00628z4 93 4 that that IN cord-266898-f00628z4 93 5 real real JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 93 6 input input NN cord-266898-f00628z4 93 7 data datum NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 93 8 can can MD cord-266898-f00628z4 93 9 be be VB cord-266898-f00628z4 93 10 replaced replace VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 93 11 by by IN cord-266898-f00628z4 93 12 approximating approximate VBG cord-266898-f00628z4 93 13 functions function NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 93 14 without without IN cord-266898-f00628z4 93 15 any any DT cord-266898-f00628z4 93 16 particular particular JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 93 17 error error NN cord-266898-f00628z4 93 18 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 94 1 Note note VB cord-266898-f00628z4 94 2 that that IN cord-266898-f00628z4 94 3 beyond beyond IN cord-266898-f00628z4 94 4 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 94 5 inflexion inflexion NN cord-266898-f00628z4 94 6 point point NN cord-266898-f00628z4 94 7 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 94 8 and and CC cord-266898-f00628z4 94 9 up up IN cord-266898-f00628z4 94 10 to to IN cord-266898-f00628z4 94 11 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 94 12 peak peak NN cord-266898-f00628z4 94 13 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 94 14 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 94 15 epidemic epidemic NN cord-266898-f00628z4 94 16 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 94 17 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 94 18 predicted predict VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 94 19 and and CC cord-266898-f00628z4 94 20 real real JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 94 21 data datum NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 94 22 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 94 23 as as IN cord-266898-f00628z4 94 24 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 94 25 rule rule NN cord-266898-f00628z4 94 26 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 94 27 practically practically RB cord-266898-f00628z4 94 28 coincide coincide VBP cord-266898-f00628z4 94 29 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 95 1 The the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 95 2 explanation explanation NN cord-266898-f00628z4 95 3 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 95 4 simple simple JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 95 5 : : : cord-266898-f00628z4 95 6 when when WRB cord-266898-f00628z4 95 7 crossing cross VBG cord-266898-f00628z4 95 8 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 95 9 inflexion inflexion NN cord-266898-f00628z4 95 10 point point NN cord-266898-f00628z4 95 11 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 95 12 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 95 13 growth growth NN cord-266898-f00628z4 95 14 rate rate NN cord-266898-f00628z4 95 15 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 95 16 registered register VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 95 17 infections infection NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 95 18 decreases decrease NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 95 19 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 95 20 while while IN cord-266898-f00628z4 95 21 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 95 22 maximum maximum JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 95 23 effort effort NN cord-266898-f00628z4 95 24 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 95 25 involved involve VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 95 26 in in IN cord-266898-f00628z4 95 27 solving solve VBG cord-266898-f00628z4 95 28 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 95 29 monitoring monitoring NN cord-266898-f00628z4 95 30 problem problem NN cord-266898-f00628z4 95 31 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 96 1 If if IN cord-266898-f00628z4 96 2 we -PRON- PRP cord-266898-f00628z4 96 3 repeat repeat VBP cord-266898-f00628z4 96 4 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 96 5 calculation calculation NN cord-266898-f00628z4 96 6 procedure procedure NN cord-266898-f00628z4 96 7 using use VBG cord-266898-f00628z4 96 8 any any DT cord-266898-f00628z4 96 9 suitable suitable JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 96 10 technique technique NN cord-266898-f00628z4 96 11 for for IN cord-266898-f00628z4 96 12 processing process VBG cord-266898-f00628z4 96 13 statistical statistical JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 96 14 data datum NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 96 15 using use VBG cord-266898-f00628z4 96 16 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 96 17 indicated indicate VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 96 18 exponential exponential JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 96 19 and and CC cord-266898-f00628z4 96 20 power power NN cord-266898-f00628z4 96 21 - - HYPH cord-266898-f00628z4 96 22 fit fit JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 96 23 approximating approximating NN cord-266898-f00628z4 96 24 functions function NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 96 25 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 96 26 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 96 27 result result NN cord-266898-f00628z4 96 28 will will MD cord-266898-f00628z4 96 29 be be VB cord-266898-f00628z4 96 30 close close JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 96 31 to to IN cord-266898-f00628z4 96 32 what what WP cord-266898-f00628z4 96 33 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 96 34 achieved achieve VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 96 35 using use VBG cord-266898-f00628z4 96 36 real real JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 96 37 input input NN cord-266898-f00628z4 96 38 data datum NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 96 39 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 97 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-266898-f00628z4 97 2 can can MD cord-266898-f00628z4 97 3 repeat repeat VB cord-266898-f00628z4 97 4 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 97 5 above above JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 97 6 arguments argument NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 97 7 and and CC cord-266898-f00628z4 97 8 calculations calculation NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 97 9 using use VBG cord-266898-f00628z4 97 10 other other JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 97 11 data datum NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 97 12 on on IN cord-266898-f00628z4 97 13 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 97 14 history history NN cord-266898-f00628z4 97 15 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 97 16 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 97 17 epidemic epidemic NN cord-266898-f00628z4 97 18 in in IN cord-266898-f00628z4 97 19 other other JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 97 20 countries country NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 97 21 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 97 22 for for IN cord-266898-f00628z4 97 23 example example NN cord-266898-f00628z4 97 24 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 97 25 Germany Germany NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 97 26 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 97 27 Italy Italy NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 97 28 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 97 29 Turkey Turkey NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 97 30 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 97 31 France France NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 97 32 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 97 33 and and CC cord-266898-f00628z4 97 34 many many JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 97 35 others other NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 97 36 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 98 1 The the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 98 2 pattern pattern NN cord-266898-f00628z4 98 3 in in IN cord-266898-f00628z4 98 4 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 98 5 input input NN cord-266898-f00628z4 98 6 data datum NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 98 7 in in IN cord-266898-f00628z4 98 8 question question NN cord-266898-f00628z4 98 9 will will MD cord-266898-f00628z4 98 10 be be VB cord-266898-f00628z4 98 11 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 98 12 same same JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 98 13 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 99 1 This this DT cord-266898-f00628z4 99 2 means mean VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 99 3 that that IN cord-266898-f00628z4 99 4 epidemic epidemic NN cord-266898-f00628z4 99 5 event event NN cord-266898-f00628z4 99 6 monitoring monitor VBG cord-266898-f00628z4 99 7 services service NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 99 8 in in IN cord-266898-f00628z4 99 9 many many JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 99 10 countries country NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 99 11 operate operate VBP cord-266898-f00628z4 99 12 similarly similarly RB cord-266898-f00628z4 99 13 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 99 14 which which WDT cord-266898-f00628z4 99 15 causes cause VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 99 16 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 99 17 inevitable inevitable JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 99 18 regular regular JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 99 19 error error NN cord-266898-f00628z4 99 20 component component NN cord-266898-f00628z4 99 21 to to TO cord-266898-f00628z4 99 22 occur occur VB cord-266898-f00628z4 99 23 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 100 1 Of of RB cord-266898-f00628z4 100 2 course course RB cord-266898-f00628z4 100 3 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 100 4 there there EX cord-266898-f00628z4 100 5 are be VBP cord-266898-f00628z4 100 6 exceptions exception NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 100 7 : : : cord-266898-f00628z4 100 8 there there EX cord-266898-f00628z4 100 9 are be VBP cord-266898-f00628z4 100 10 data datum NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 100 11 for for IN cord-266898-f00628z4 100 12 some some DT cord-266898-f00628z4 100 13 countries country NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 100 14 for for IN cord-266898-f00628z4 100 15 which which WDT cord-266898-f00628z4 100 16 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 100 17 analytical analytical JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 100 18 analysis analysis NN cord-266898-f00628z4 100 19 described describe VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 100 20 in in IN cord-266898-f00628z4 100 21 this this DT cord-266898-f00628z4 100 22 paper paper NN cord-266898-f00628z4 100 23 can can MD cord-266898-f00628z4 100 24 not not RB cord-266898-f00628z4 100 25 be be VB cord-266898-f00628z4 100 26 used use VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 100 27 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 101 1 Such such JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 101 2 countries country NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 101 3 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 101 4 among among IN cord-266898-f00628z4 101 5 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 101 6 most most RBS cord-266898-f00628z4 101 7 affected affect VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 101 8 by by IN cord-266898-f00628z4 101 9 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 101 10 pandemic pandemic NN cord-266898-f00628z4 101 11 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 101 12 primarily primarily RB cord-266898-f00628z4 101 13 include include VBP cord-266898-f00628z4 101 14 China China NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 101 15 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 101 16 whose whose WP$ cord-266898-f00628z4 101 17 monitoring monitoring NN cord-266898-f00628z4 101 18 services service NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 101 19 provided provide VBD cord-266898-f00628z4 101 20 data datum NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 101 21 that that WDT cord-266898-f00628z4 101 22 could could MD cord-266898-f00628z4 101 23 not not RB cord-266898-f00628z4 101 24 be be VB cord-266898-f00628z4 101 25 processed process VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 101 26 in in IN cord-266898-f00628z4 101 27 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 101 28 above above JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 101 29 aspect aspect NN cord-266898-f00628z4 101 30 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 102 1 Also also RB cord-266898-f00628z4 102 2 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 102 3 in in IN cord-266898-f00628z4 102 4 this this DT cord-266898-f00628z4 102 5 aspect aspect NN cord-266898-f00628z4 102 6 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 102 7 countries country NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 102 8 such such JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 102 9 as as IN cord-266898-f00628z4 102 10 Ecuador Ecuador NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 102 11 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 102 12 Japan Japan NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 102 13 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 102 14 Slovakia Slovakia NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 102 15 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 102 16 Guinea Guinea NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 102 17 - - HYPH cord-266898-f00628z4 102 18 Bissau Bissau NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 102 19 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 102 20 Kosovo Kosovo NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 102 21 are be VBP cord-266898-f00628z4 102 22 not not RB cord-266898-f00628z4 102 23 amenable amenable JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 102 24 to to IN cord-266898-f00628z4 102 25 statistical statistical JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 102 26 processing processing NN cord-266898-f00628z4 102 27 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 103 1 In in IN cord-266898-f00628z4 103 2 some some DT cord-266898-f00628z4 103 3 other other JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 103 4 countries country NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 103 5 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 103 6 as as IN cord-266898-f00628z4 103 7 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 103 8 rule rule NN cord-266898-f00628z4 103 9 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 103 10 with with IN cord-266898-f00628z4 103 11 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 103 12 few few JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 103 13 registered register VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 103 14 cases case NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 103 15 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 103 16 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 103 17 causal causal JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 103 18 principle principle NN cord-266898-f00628z4 103 19 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 103 20 formally formally RB cord-266898-f00628z4 103 21 violated violate VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 103 22 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 104 1 This this DT cord-266898-f00628z4 104 2 means mean VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 104 3 that that IN cord-266898-f00628z4 104 4 monitoring monitor VBG cord-266898-f00628z4 104 5 data datum NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 104 6 overtakes overtake VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 104 7 in in IN cord-266898-f00628z4 104 8 time time NN cord-266898-f00628z4 104 9 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 104 10 data datum NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 104 11 calculated calculate VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 104 12 by by IN cord-266898-f00628z4 104 13 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 104 14 logistic logistic JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 104 15 forecast forecast NN cord-266898-f00628z4 104 16 curve curve NN cord-266898-f00628z4 104 17 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 105 1 Since since IN cord-266898-f00628z4 105 2 in in IN cord-266898-f00628z4 105 3 reality reality NN cord-266898-f00628z4 105 4 this this DT cord-266898-f00628z4 105 5 principle principle NN cord-266898-f00628z4 105 6 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 105 7 never never RB cord-266898-f00628z4 105 8 violated violate VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 105 9 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 105 10 it -PRON- PRP cord-266898-f00628z4 105 11 remains remain VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 105 12 to to TO cord-266898-f00628z4 105 13 be be VB cord-266898-f00628z4 105 14 assumed assume VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 105 15 that that IN cord-266898-f00628z4 105 16 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 105 17 monitoring monitoring NN cord-266898-f00628z4 105 18 data datum NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 105 19 provided provide VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 105 20 by by IN cord-266898-f00628z4 105 21 such such JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 105 22 countries country NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 105 23 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 105 24 incomplete incomplete JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 105 25 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 106 1 If if IN cord-266898-f00628z4 106 2 desired desire VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 106 3 and and CC cord-266898-f00628z4 106 4 zealous zealous JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 106 5 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 106 6 this this DT cord-266898-f00628z4 106 7 error error NN cord-266898-f00628z4 106 8 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 106 9 not not RB cord-266898-f00628z4 106 10 difficult difficult JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 106 11 to to TO cord-266898-f00628z4 106 12 correct correct VB cord-266898-f00628z4 106 13 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 106 14 assuming assume VBG cord-266898-f00628z4 106 15 that that IN cord-266898-f00628z4 106 16 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 106 17 epidemic epidemic NN cord-266898-f00628z4 106 18 could could MD cord-266898-f00628z4 106 19 have have VB cord-266898-f00628z4 106 20 begun begin VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 106 21 somewhat somewhat RB cord-266898-f00628z4 106 22 earlier early RBR cord-266898-f00628z4 106 23 than than IN cord-266898-f00628z4 106 24 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 106 25 officially officially RB cord-266898-f00628z4 106 26 declared declare VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 106 27 date date NN cord-266898-f00628z4 106 28 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 107 1 There there EX cord-266898-f00628z4 107 2 are be VBP cord-266898-f00628z4 107 3 some some DT cord-266898-f00628z4 107 4 countries country NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 107 5 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 107 6 also also RB cord-266898-f00628z4 107 7 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 107 8 as as IN cord-266898-f00628z4 107 9 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 107 10 rule rule NN cord-266898-f00628z4 107 11 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 107 12 with with IN cord-266898-f00628z4 107 13 some some DT cord-266898-f00628z4 107 14 recorded record VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 107 15 cases case NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 107 16 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 107 17 where where WRB cord-266898-f00628z4 107 18 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 107 19 forecast forecast NN cord-266898-f00628z4 107 20 data datum NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 107 21 surprisingly surprisingly RB cord-266898-f00628z4 107 22 practically practically RB cord-266898-f00628z4 107 23 coincide coincide VBP cord-266898-f00628z4 107 24 with with IN cord-266898-f00628z4 107 25 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 107 26 monitoring monitoring NN cord-266898-f00628z4 107 27 data datum NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 107 28 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 108 1 These these DT cord-266898-f00628z4 108 2 countries country NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 108 3 include include VBP cord-266898-f00628z4 108 4 Ireland Ireland NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 108 5 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 108 6 Iceland Iceland NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 108 7 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 108 8 New New NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 108 9 Zealand Zealand NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 108 10 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 109 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-266898-f00628z4 109 2 assume assume VBP cord-266898-f00628z4 109 3 that that IN cord-266898-f00628z4 109 4 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 109 5 regular regular JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 109 6 component component NN cord-266898-f00628z4 109 7 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 109 8 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 109 9 monitoring monitoring NN cord-266898-f00628z4 109 10 error error NN cord-266898-f00628z4 109 11 has have VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 109 12 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 109 13 place place NN cord-266898-f00628z4 109 14 to to TO cord-266898-f00628z4 109 15 be be VB cord-266898-f00628z4 109 16 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 110 1 Could Could MD cord-266898-f00628z4 110 2 this this DT cord-266898-f00628z4 110 3 information information NN cord-266898-f00628z4 110 4 have have VB cord-266898-f00628z4 110 5 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 110 6 positive positive JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 110 7 effect effect NN cord-266898-f00628z4 110 8 on on IN cord-266898-f00628z4 110 9 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 110 10 reliability reliability NN cord-266898-f00628z4 110 11 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 110 12 predicting predict VBG cord-266898-f00628z4 110 13 future future JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 110 14 epidemic epidemic NN cord-266898-f00628z4 110 15 events event NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 110 16 in in IN cord-266898-f00628z4 110 17 other other JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 110 18 countries country NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 110 19 that that WDT cord-266898-f00628z4 110 20 have have VBP cord-266898-f00628z4 110 21 not not RB cord-266898-f00628z4 110 22 yet yet RB cord-266898-f00628z4 110 23 reached reach VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 110 24 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 110 25 peak peak NN cord-266898-f00628z4 110 26 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 110 27 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 110 28 epidemic epidemic NN cord-266898-f00628z4 110 29 ? ? . cord-266898-f00628z4 111 1 If if IN cord-266898-f00628z4 111 2 we -PRON- PRP cord-266898-f00628z4 111 3 take take VBP cord-266898-f00628z4 111 4 into into IN cord-266898-f00628z4 111 5 account account NN cord-266898-f00628z4 111 6 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 111 7 evolution evolution NN cord-266898-f00628z4 111 8 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 111 9 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 111 10 indicated indicate VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 111 11 regular regular JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 111 12 error error NN cord-266898-f00628z4 111 13 component component NN cord-266898-f00628z4 111 14 in in IN cord-266898-f00628z4 111 15 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 111 16 dynamic dynamic JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 111 17 way way NN cord-266898-f00628z4 111 18 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 111 19 that that RB cord-266898-f00628z4 111 20 is is RB cord-266898-f00628z4 111 21 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 111 22 ad- ad- XX cord-266898-f00628z4 111 23 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 112 1 CC CC NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 112 2 - - HYPH cord-266898-f00628z4 112 3 BY BY NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 112 4 - - HYPH cord-266898-f00628z4 112 5 NC NC NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 112 6 - - HYPH cord-266898-f00628z4 112 7 ND ND NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 112 8 4.0 4.0 CD cord-266898-f00628z4 112 9 International international JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 112 10 license license NN cord-266898-f00628z4 113 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-266898-f00628z4 113 2 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 113 3 made make VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 113 4 available available JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 113 5 under under IN cord-266898-f00628z4 113 6 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 114 1 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 114 2 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 114 3 author author NN cord-266898-f00628z4 114 4 / / SYM cord-266898-f00628z4 114 5 funder funder NN cord-266898-f00628z4 114 6 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 114 7 who who WP cord-266898-f00628z4 114 8 has have VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 114 9 granted grant VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 114 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 114 11 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 114 12 license license NN cord-266898-f00628z4 114 13 to to TO cord-266898-f00628z4 114 14 display display VB cord-266898-f00628z4 114 15 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 114 16 preprint preprint NN cord-266898-f00628z4 114 17 in in IN cord-266898-f00628z4 114 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-266898-f00628z4 114 19 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 115 1 The the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 115 2 copyright copyright NN cord-266898-f00628z4 115 3 holder holder NN cord-266898-f00628z4 115 4 for for IN cord-266898-f00628z4 115 5 this this DT cord-266898-f00628z4 115 6 preprint preprint NN cord-266898-f00628z4 115 7 this this DT cord-266898-f00628z4 115 8 version version NN cord-266898-f00628z4 115 9 posted post VBD cord-266898-f00628z4 115 10 June June NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 115 11 3 3 CD cord-266898-f00628z4 115 12 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 115 13 2020 2020 CD cord-266898-f00628z4 115 14 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 115 15 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 116 1 just just RB cord-266898-f00628z4 116 2 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 116 3 input input NN cord-266898-f00628z4 116 4 data datum NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 116 5 appropriately appropriately RB cord-266898-f00628z4 116 6 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 116 7 this this DT cord-266898-f00628z4 116 8 problem problem NN cord-266898-f00628z4 116 9 will will MD cord-266898-f00628z4 116 10 not not RB cord-266898-f00628z4 116 11 completely completely RB cord-266898-f00628z4 116 12 disappear disappear VB cord-266898-f00628z4 116 13 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 117 1 The the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 117 2 parameters parameter NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 117 3 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 117 4 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 117 5 exponential exponential JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 117 6 and and CC cord-266898-f00628z4 117 7 power power NN cord-266898-f00628z4 117 8 functions function NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 117 9 that that WDT cord-266898-f00628z4 117 10 approximate approximate VBP cord-266898-f00628z4 117 11 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 117 12 input input NN cord-266898-f00628z4 117 13 data datum NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 117 14 are be VBP cord-266898-f00628z4 117 15 unknown unknown JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 117 16 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 117 17 priori priori FW cord-266898-f00628z4 117 18 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 118 1 The the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 118 2 history history NN cord-266898-f00628z4 118 3 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 118 4 countries country NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 118 5 that that WDT cord-266898-f00628z4 118 6 have have VBP cord-266898-f00628z4 118 7 reached reach VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 118 8 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 118 9 peak peak NN cord-266898-f00628z4 118 10 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 118 11 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 118 12 epidemic epidemic NN cord-266898-f00628z4 118 13 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 118 14 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 118 15 fundamental fundamental JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 118 16 value value NN cord-266898-f00628z4 118 17 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 119 1 This this DT cord-266898-f00628z4 119 2 value value NN cord-266898-f00628z4 119 3 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 119 4 manifested manifest VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 119 5 in in IN cord-266898-f00628z4 119 6 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 119 7 appearance appearance NN cord-266898-f00628z4 119 8 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 119 9 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 119 10 pattern pattern NN cord-266898-f00628z4 119 11 in in IN cord-266898-f00628z4 119 12 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 119 13 so so RB cord-266898-f00628z4 119 14 - - HYPH cord-266898-f00628z4 119 15 called call VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 119 16 virtual virtual JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 119 17 time time NN cord-266898-f00628z4 119 18 delay delay NN cord-266898-f00628z4 119 19 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 119 20 monitoring monitor VBG cord-266898-f00628z4 119 21 data datum NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 119 22 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 120 1 The the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 120 2 indicated indicate VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 120 3 delay delay NN cord-266898-f00628z4 120 4 time time NN cord-266898-f00628z4 120 5 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 120 6 determined determine VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 120 7 as as IN cord-266898-f00628z4 120 8 follows follow VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 120 9 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 121 1 Mentally mentally RB cord-266898-f00628z4 121 2 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 121 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-266898-f00628z4 121 4 draw draw VBP cord-266898-f00628z4 121 5 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 121 6 horizontal horizontal JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 121 7 line line NN cord-266898-f00628z4 121 8 on on IN cord-266898-f00628z4 121 9 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 121 10 graph graph NN cord-266898-f00628z4 121 11 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 121 12 which which WDT cord-266898-f00628z4 121 13 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 121 14 shown show VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 121 15 on on IN cord-266898-f00628z4 121 16 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 121 17 left left NN cord-266898-f00628z4 121 18 in in IN cord-266898-f00628z4 121 19 Fig Fig NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 121 20 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 122 1 3 3 LS cord-266898-f00628z4 122 2 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 123 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-266898-f00628z4 123 2 determine determine VBP cord-266898-f00628z4 123 3 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 123 4 intersection intersection NN cord-266898-f00628z4 123 5 points point NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 123 6 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 123 7 this this DT cord-266898-f00628z4 123 8 line line NN cord-266898-f00628z4 123 9 with with IN cord-266898-f00628z4 123 10 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 123 11 forecast forecast NN cord-266898-f00628z4 123 12 logistics logistics NN cord-266898-f00628z4 123 13 curve curve NN cord-266898-f00628z4 123 14 and and CC cord-266898-f00628z4 123 15 graphs graph NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 123 16 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 123 17 functions function NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 123 18 that that WDT cord-266898-f00628z4 123 19 approximate approximate VBP cord-266898-f00628z4 123 20 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 123 21 input input NN cord-266898-f00628z4 123 22 data datum NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 123 23 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 124 1 The the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 124 2 time time NN cord-266898-f00628z4 124 3 difference difference NN cord-266898-f00628z4 124 4 at at IN cord-266898-f00628z4 124 5 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 124 6 indicated indicate VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 124 7 intersection intersection NN cord-266898-f00628z4 124 8 points point NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 124 9 determines determine VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 124 10 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 124 11 virtual virtual JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 124 12 delay delay NN cord-266898-f00628z4 124 13 time time NN cord-266898-f00628z4 124 14 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 124 15 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 124 16 monitoring monitoring NN cord-266898-f00628z4 124 17 data datum NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 124 18 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 125 1 In in IN cord-266898-f00628z4 125 2 other other JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 125 3 words word NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 125 4 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 125 5 if if IN cord-266898-f00628z4 125 6 you -PRON- PRP cord-266898-f00628z4 125 7 move move VBP cord-266898-f00628z4 125 8 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 125 9 monitoring monitoring NN cord-266898-f00628z4 125 10 points point NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 125 11 from from IN cord-266898-f00628z4 125 12 right right NN cord-266898-f00628z4 125 13 to to IN cord-266898-f00628z4 125 14 left leave VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 125 15 by by IN cord-266898-f00628z4 125 16 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 125 17 desired desire VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 125 18 time time NN cord-266898-f00628z4 125 19 interval interval NN cord-266898-f00628z4 125 20 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 125 21 then then RB cord-266898-f00628z4 125 22 all all PDT cord-266898-f00628z4 125 23 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 125 24 points point NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 125 25 will will MD cord-266898-f00628z4 125 26 be be VB cord-266898-f00628z4 125 27 on on IN cord-266898-f00628z4 125 28 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 125 29 logistic logistic JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 125 30 curve curve NN cord-266898-f00628z4 125 31 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 125 32 which which WDT cord-266898-f00628z4 125 33 will will MD cord-266898-f00628z4 125 34 lead lead VB cord-266898-f00628z4 125 35 to to IN cord-266898-f00628z4 125 36 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 125 37 correct correct JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 125 38 prediction prediction NN cord-266898-f00628z4 125 39 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 125 40 even even RB cord-266898-f00628z4 125 41 if if IN cord-266898-f00628z4 125 42 you -PRON- PRP cord-266898-f00628z4 125 43 do do VBP cord-266898-f00628z4 125 44 not not RB cord-266898-f00628z4 125 45 use use VB cord-266898-f00628z4 125 46 all all PDT cord-266898-f00628z4 125 47 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 125 48 new new JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 125 49 data datum NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 125 50 obtained obtain VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 125 51 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 125 52 but but CC cord-266898-f00628z4 125 53 only only RB cord-266898-f00628z4 125 54 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 125 55 small small JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 125 56 part part NN cord-266898-f00628z4 125 57 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 125 58 them -PRON- PRP cord-266898-f00628z4 125 59 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 126 1 In in IN cord-266898-f00628z4 126 2 Fig.4 Fig.4 NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 126 3 3 3 CD cord-266898-f00628z4 126 4 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 126 5 replacing replace VBG cord-266898-f00628z4 126 6 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 126 7 real real JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 126 8 input input NN cord-266898-f00628z4 126 9 data datum NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 126 10 with with IN cord-266898-f00628z4 126 11 approximating approximate VBG cord-266898-f00628z4 126 12 functions function NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 126 13 creates create VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 126 14 an an DT cord-266898-f00628z4 126 15 error error NN cord-266898-f00628z4 126 16 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 126 17 not not RB cord-266898-f00628z4 126 18 more more JJR cord-266898-f00628z4 126 19 than than IN cord-266898-f00628z4 126 20 33 33 CD cord-266898-f00628z4 126 21 per per IN cord-266898-f00628z4 126 22 cent cent NN cord-266898-f00628z4 126 23 ; ; : cord-266898-f00628z4 126 24 4 4 CD cord-266898-f00628z4 126 25 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 127 1 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 127 2 country country NN cord-266898-f00628z4 127 3 has have VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 127 4 fetched fetch VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 127 5 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-266898-f00628z4 127 6 epidemic epidemic NN cord-266898-f00628z4 127 7 peak peak NN cord-266898-f00628z4 127 8 to to IN cord-266898-f00628z4 127 9 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 127 10 current current JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 127 11 date date NN cord-266898-f00628z4 127 12 for for IN cord-266898-f00628z4 127 13 at at RB cord-266898-f00628z4 127 14 least least RBS cord-266898-f00628z4 127 15 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 127 16 week week NN cord-266898-f00628z4 127 17 ago ago RB cord-266898-f00628z4 127 18 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 127 19 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 128 1 CC CC NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 128 2 - - HYPH cord-266898-f00628z4 128 3 BY BY NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 128 4 - - HYPH cord-266898-f00628z4 128 5 NC NC NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 128 6 - - HYPH cord-266898-f00628z4 128 7 ND ND NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 128 8 4.0 4.0 CD cord-266898-f00628z4 128 9 International international JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 128 10 license license NN cord-266898-f00628z4 129 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-266898-f00628z4 129 2 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 129 3 made make VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 129 4 available available JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 129 5 under under IN cord-266898-f00628z4 129 6 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 130 1 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 130 2 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 130 3 author author NN cord-266898-f00628z4 130 4 / / SYM cord-266898-f00628z4 130 5 funder funder NN cord-266898-f00628z4 130 6 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 130 7 who who WP cord-266898-f00628z4 130 8 has have VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 130 9 granted grant VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 130 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 130 11 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 130 12 license license NN cord-266898-f00628z4 130 13 to to TO cord-266898-f00628z4 130 14 display display VB cord-266898-f00628z4 130 15 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 130 16 preprint preprint NN cord-266898-f00628z4 130 17 in in IN cord-266898-f00628z4 130 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-266898-f00628z4 130 19 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 131 1 The the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 131 2 copyright copyright NN cord-266898-f00628z4 131 3 holder holder NN cord-266898-f00628z4 131 4 for for IN cord-266898-f00628z4 131 5 this this DT cord-266898-f00628z4 131 6 preprint preprint NN cord-266898-f00628z4 131 7 this this DT cord-266898-f00628z4 131 8 version version NN cord-266898-f00628z4 131 9 posted post VBD cord-266898-f00628z4 131 10 June June NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 131 11 3 3 CD cord-266898-f00628z4 131 12 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 131 13 2020 2020 CD cord-266898-f00628z4 131 14 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 131 15 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 132 1 Unfortunately unfortunately RB cord-266898-f00628z4 132 2 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 132 3 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 132 4 above above JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 132 5 analysis analysis NN cord-266898-f00628z4 132 6 can can MD cord-266898-f00628z4 132 7 not not RB cord-266898-f00628z4 132 8 be be VB cord-266898-f00628z4 132 9 applied apply VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 132 10 to to IN cord-266898-f00628z4 132 11 US US NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 132 12 monitoring monitor VBG cord-266898-f00628z4 132 13 data datum NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 132 14 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 132 15 although although IN cord-266898-f00628z4 132 16 this this DT cord-266898-f00628z4 132 17 country country NN cord-266898-f00628z4 132 18 has have VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 132 19 confidently confidently RB cord-266898-f00628z4 132 20 crossed cross VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 132 21 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 132 22 epidemic epidemic NN cord-266898-f00628z4 132 23 threshold threshold NN cord-266898-f00628z4 132 24 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 133 1 Also also RB cord-266898-f00628z4 133 2 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 133 3 it -PRON- PRP cord-266898-f00628z4 133 4 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 133 5 not not RB cord-266898-f00628z4 133 6 yet yet RB cord-266898-f00628z4 133 7 possible possible JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 133 8 to to TO cord-266898-f00628z4 133 9 analyse analyse VB cord-266898-f00628z4 133 10 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 133 11 situation situation NN cord-266898-f00628z4 133 12 in in IN cord-266898-f00628z4 133 13 Brazil Brazil NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 133 14 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 133 15 since since IN cord-266898-f00628z4 133 16 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 133 17 epidemic epidemic NN cord-266898-f00628z4 133 18 in in IN cord-266898-f00628z4 133 19 this this DT cord-266898-f00628z4 133 20 country country NN cord-266898-f00628z4 133 21 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 133 22 at at IN cord-266898-f00628z4 133 23 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 133 24 initial initial JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 133 25 stage stage NN cord-266898-f00628z4 133 26 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 133 27 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 133 28 exponential exponential JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 133 29 growth growth NN cord-266898-f00628z4 133 30 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 133 31 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 133 32 epidemic epidemic NN cord-266898-f00628z4 133 33 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 133 34 despite despite IN cord-266898-f00628z4 133 35 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 133 36 unprecedentedly unprecedentedly RB cord-266898-f00628z4 133 37 large large JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 133 38 number number NN cord-266898-f00628z4 133 39 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 133 40 officially officially RB cord-266898-f00628z4 133 41 recorded record VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 133 42 cases case NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 133 43 in in IN cord-266898-f00628z4 133 44 this this DT cord-266898-f00628z4 133 45 country country NN cord-266898-f00628z4 133 46 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 133 47 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 134 1 CC CC NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 134 2 - - HYPH cord-266898-f00628z4 134 3 BY BY NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 134 4 - - HYPH cord-266898-f00628z4 134 5 NC NC NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 134 6 - - HYPH cord-266898-f00628z4 134 7 ND ND NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 134 8 4.0 4.0 CD cord-266898-f00628z4 134 9 International international JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 134 10 license license NN cord-266898-f00628z4 135 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-266898-f00628z4 135 2 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 135 3 made make VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 135 4 available available JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 135 5 under under IN cord-266898-f00628z4 135 6 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 136 1 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 136 2 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 136 3 author author NN cord-266898-f00628z4 136 4 / / SYM cord-266898-f00628z4 136 5 funder funder NN cord-266898-f00628z4 136 6 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 136 7 who who WP cord-266898-f00628z4 136 8 has have VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 136 9 granted grant VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 136 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 136 11 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 136 12 license license NN cord-266898-f00628z4 136 13 to to TO cord-266898-f00628z4 136 14 display display VB cord-266898-f00628z4 136 15 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 136 16 preprint preprint NN cord-266898-f00628z4 136 17 in in IN cord-266898-f00628z4 136 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-266898-f00628z4 136 19 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 137 1 The the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 137 2 copyright copyright NN cord-266898-f00628z4 137 3 holder holder NN cord-266898-f00628z4 137 4 for for IN cord-266898-f00628z4 137 5 this this DT cord-266898-f00628z4 137 6 preprint preprint NN cord-266898-f00628z4 137 7 this this DT cord-266898-f00628z4 137 8 version version NN cord-266898-f00628z4 137 9 posted post VBD cord-266898-f00628z4 137 10 June June NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 137 11 3 3 CD cord-266898-f00628z4 137 12 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 137 13 2020 2020 CD cord-266898-f00628z4 137 14 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 138 1 Saudi Saudi NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 138 2 Arabia Arabia NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 138 3 and and CC cord-266898-f00628z4 138 4 Russia Russia NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 138 5 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 138 6 which which WDT cord-266898-f00628z4 138 7 have have VBP cord-266898-f00628z4 138 8 crossed cross VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 138 9 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 138 10 epidemic epidemic NN cord-266898-f00628z4 138 11 threshold threshold NN cord-266898-f00628z4 138 12 but but CC cord-266898-f00628z4 138 13 have have VBP cord-266898-f00628z4 138 14 not not RB cord-266898-f00628z4 138 15 yet yet RB cord-266898-f00628z4 138 16 reached reach VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 138 17 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-266898-f00628z4 138 18 peak peak NN cord-266898-f00628z4 138 19 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 139 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-266898-f00628z4 139 2 have have VBP cord-266898-f00628z4 139 3 used use VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 139 4 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 139 5 same same JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 139 6 illustration illustration NN cord-266898-f00628z4 139 7 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 139 8 as as IN cord-266898-f00628z4 139 9 in in IN cord-266898-f00628z4 139 10 Fig Fig NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 139 11 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 140 1 4 4 CD cord-266898-f00628z4 140 2 on on IN cord-266898-f00628z4 140 3 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 140 4 left left NN cord-266898-f00628z4 140 5 as as IN cord-266898-f00628z4 140 6 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 140 7 background background NN cord-266898-f00628z4 140 8 for for IN cord-266898-f00628z4 140 9 visual visual JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 140 10 comparison comparison NN cord-266898-f00628z4 140 11 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 141 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-266898-f00628z4 141 2 have have VBP cord-266898-f00628z4 141 3 found find VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 141 4 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 141 5 regular regular JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 141 6 component component NN cord-266898-f00628z4 141 7 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 141 8 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 141 9 monitoring monitoring NN cord-266898-f00628z4 141 10 error error NN cord-266898-f00628z4 141 11 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 141 12 officially officially RB cord-266898-f00628z4 141 13 registered register VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 141 14 total total JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 141 15 cases case NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 141 16 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 141 17 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 141 18 spread spread NN cord-266898-f00628z4 141 19 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 141 20 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 141 21 current current JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 141 22 pandemic pandemic NN cord-266898-f00628z4 141 23 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 142 1 This this DT cord-266898-f00628z4 142 2 regular regular JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 142 3 error error NN cord-266898-f00628z4 142 4 component component NN cord-266898-f00628z4 142 5 explains explain VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 142 6 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 142 7 reason reason NN cord-266898-f00628z4 142 8 for for IN cord-266898-f00628z4 142 9 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 142 10 failure failure NN cord-266898-f00628z4 142 11 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 142 12 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 142 13 priori priori FW cord-266898-f00628z4 142 14 mathematical mathematical JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 142 15 modelling modelling NN cord-266898-f00628z4 142 16 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 142 17 probable probable JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 142 18 epidemic epidemic NN cord-266898-f00628z4 142 19 events event NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 142 20 in in IN cord-266898-f00628z4 142 21 different different JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 142 22 countries country NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 142 23 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 142 24 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 142 25 world world NN cord-266898-f00628z4 142 26 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 143 1 Processing process VBG cord-266898-f00628z4 143 2 statistical statistical JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 143 3 data datum NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 143 4 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 143 5 countries country NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 143 6 that that WDT cord-266898-f00628z4 143 7 have have VBP cord-266898-f00628z4 143 8 reached reach VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 143 9 an an DT cord-266898-f00628z4 143 10 epidemic epidemic NN cord-266898-f00628z4 143 11 peak peak NN cord-266898-f00628z4 143 12 has have VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 143 13 shown show VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 143 14 that that IN cord-266898-f00628z4 143 15 this this DT cord-266898-f00628z4 143 16 regular regular JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 143 17 monitoring monitoring NN cord-266898-f00628z4 143 18 obeys obey VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 143 19 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 143 20 simple simple JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 143 21 analytical analytical JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 143 22 regularity regularity NN cord-266898-f00628z4 143 23 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 144 1 This this DT cord-266898-f00628z4 144 2 pattern pattern NN cord-266898-f00628z4 144 3 allows allow VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 144 4 us -PRON- PRP cord-266898-f00628z4 144 5 to to TO cord-266898-f00628z4 144 6 answer answer VB cord-266898-f00628z4 144 7 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 144 8 question question NN cord-266898-f00628z4 144 9 : : : cord-266898-f00628z4 144 10 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 144 11 this this DT cord-266898-f00628z4 144 12 or or CC cord-266898-f00628z4 144 13 that that DT cord-266898-f00628z4 144 14 country country NN cord-266898-f00628z4 144 15 that that WDT cord-266898-f00628z4 144 16 has have VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 144 17 already already RB cord-266898-f00628z4 144 18 crossed cross VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 144 19 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 144 20 threshold threshold NN cord-266898-f00628z4 144 21 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 144 22 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 144 23 epidemic epidemic NN cord-266898-f00628z4 144 24 close close JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 144 25 to to IN cord-266898-f00628z4 144 26 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 144 27 peak peak NN cord-266898-f00628z4 144 28 or or CC cord-266898-f00628z4 144 29 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 144 30 still still RB cord-266898-f00628z4 144 31 far far RB cord-266898-f00628z4 144 32 from from IN cord-266898-f00628z4 144 33 it -PRON- PRP cord-266898-f00628z4 144 34 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 145 1 Not not RB cord-266898-f00628z4 145 2 far far RB cord-266898-f00628z4 145 3 off off RB cord-266898-f00628z4 145 4 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 145 5 that that DT cord-266898-f00628z4 145 6 happy happy JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 145 7 day day NN cord-266898-f00628z4 145 8 when when WRB cord-266898-f00628z4 145 9 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 145 10 world world NN cord-266898-f00628z4 145 11 will will MD cord-266898-f00628z4 145 12 cope cope VB cord-266898-f00628z4 145 13 with with IN cord-266898-f00628z4 145 14 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 145 15 pandemic pandemic NN cord-266898-f00628z4 145 16 as as IN cord-266898-f00628z4 145 17 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 145 18 whole whole NN cord-266898-f00628z4 145 19 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 146 1 Monitoring monitor VBG cord-266898-f00628z4 146 2 data datum NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 146 3 on on IN cord-266898-f00628z4 146 4 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 146 5 current current JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 146 6 pandemic pandemic NN cord-266898-f00628z4 146 7 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 146 8 collected collect VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 146 9 in in IN cord-266898-f00628z4 146 10 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-266898-f00628z4 146 11 entirety entirety NN cord-266898-f00628z4 146 12 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 146 13 will will MD cord-266898-f00628z4 146 14 allow allow VB cord-266898-f00628z4 146 15 us -PRON- PRP cord-266898-f00628z4 146 16 to to TO cord-266898-f00628z4 146 17 establish establish VB cord-266898-f00628z4 146 18 valuable valuable JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 146 19 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 146 20 posteriori posteriori FW cord-266898-f00628z4 146 21 patterns pattern NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 146 22 to to TO cord-266898-f00628z4 146 23 significantly significantly RB cord-266898-f00628z4 146 24 improve improve VB cord-266898-f00628z4 146 25 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 146 26 quality quality NN cord-266898-f00628z4 146 27 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 146 28 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 146 29 priori priori FW cord-266898-f00628z4 146 30 dynamic dynamic JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 146 31 modelling modelling NN cord-266898-f00628z4 146 32 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 146 33 epidemic epidemic NN cord-266898-f00628z4 146 34 events event NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 146 35 when when WRB cord-266898-f00628z4 146 36 they -PRON- PRP cord-266898-f00628z4 146 37 appear appear VBP cord-266898-f00628z4 146 38 in in IN cord-266898-f00628z4 146 39 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 146 40 future future NN cord-266898-f00628z4 146 41 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 147 1 † † UH cord-266898-f00628z4 148 1 The the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 148 2 United United NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 148 3 Kingdom Kingdom NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 148 4 has have VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 148 5 reached reach VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 148 6 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 148 7 epidemic epidemic NN cord-266898-f00628z4 148 8 peak peak NN cord-266898-f00628z4 148 9 while while IN cord-266898-f00628z4 148 10 writing write VBG cord-266898-f00628z4 148 11 this this DT cord-266898-f00628z4 148 12 text text NN cord-266898-f00628z4 148 13 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 148 14 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 149 1 CC CC NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 149 2 - - HYPH cord-266898-f00628z4 149 3 BY BY NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 149 4 - - HYPH cord-266898-f00628z4 149 5 NC NC NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 149 6 - - HYPH cord-266898-f00628z4 149 7 ND ND NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 149 8 4.0 4.0 CD cord-266898-f00628z4 149 9 International international JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 149 10 license license NN cord-266898-f00628z4 150 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-266898-f00628z4 150 2 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 150 3 made make VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 150 4 available available JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 150 5 under under IN cord-266898-f00628z4 150 6 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 151 1 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 151 2 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 151 3 author author NN cord-266898-f00628z4 151 4 / / SYM cord-266898-f00628z4 151 5 funder funder NN cord-266898-f00628z4 151 6 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 151 7 who who WP cord-266898-f00628z4 151 8 has have VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 151 9 granted grant VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 151 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 151 11 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 151 12 license license NN cord-266898-f00628z4 151 13 to to TO cord-266898-f00628z4 151 14 display display VB cord-266898-f00628z4 151 15 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 151 16 preprint preprint NN cord-266898-f00628z4 151 17 in in IN cord-266898-f00628z4 151 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-266898-f00628z4 151 19 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 152 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-266898-f00628z4 152 2 which which WDT cord-266898-f00628z4 152 3 was be VBD cord-266898-f00628z4 152 4 not not RB cord-266898-f00628z4 152 5 certified certify VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 152 6 by by IN cord-266898-f00628z4 152 7 peer peer NN cord-266898-f00628z4 152 8 review review NN cord-266898-f00628z4 152 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-266898-f00628z4 153 1 The the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 153 2 copyright copyright NN cord-266898-f00628z4 153 3 holder holder NN cord-266898-f00628z4 153 4 for for IN cord-266898-f00628z4 153 5 this this DT cord-266898-f00628z4 153 6 preprint preprint NN cord-266898-f00628z4 153 7 this this DT cord-266898-f00628z4 153 8 version version NN cord-266898-f00628z4 153 9 posted post VBD cord-266898-f00628z4 153 10 June June NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 153 11 3 3 CD cord-266898-f00628z4 153 12 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 153 13 2020 2020 CD cord-266898-f00628z4 153 14 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 153 15 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 154 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.01.20118869 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.01.20118869 NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 154 2 doi doi NN cord-266898-f00628z4 154 3 : : : cord-266898-f00628z4 155 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 155 2 preprint preprint NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 156 1 The the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 156 2 countries country NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 156 3 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 156 4 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 156 5 " " `` cord-266898-f00628z4 156 6 golden golden JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 156 7 billion billion CD cord-266898-f00628z4 156 8 " " '' cord-266898-f00628z4 156 9 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 156 10 despite despite IN cord-266898-f00628z4 156 11 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 156 12 sometimes sometimes RB cord-266898-f00628z4 156 13 catastrophic catastrophic JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 156 14 situation situation NN cord-266898-f00628z4 156 15 allowed allow VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 156 16 in in IN cord-266898-f00628z4 156 17 this this DT cord-266898-f00628z4 156 18 part part NN cord-266898-f00628z4 156 19 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 156 20 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 156 21 world world NN cord-266898-f00628z4 156 22 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 156 23 judging judge VBG cord-266898-f00628z4 156 24 by by IN cord-266898-f00628z4 156 25 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 156 26 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 156 27 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 156 28 current current JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 156 29 events event NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 156 30 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 156 31 are be VBP cord-266898-f00628z4 156 32 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 156 33 first first JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 156 34 to to TO cord-266898-f00628z4 156 35 pass pass VB cord-266898-f00628z4 156 36 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 156 37 peak peak NN cord-266898-f00628z4 156 38 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 156 39 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 156 40 epidemic epidemic NN cord-266898-f00628z4 156 41 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 157 1 The the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 157 2 fate fate NN cord-266898-f00628z4 157 3 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 157 4 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 157 5 rest rest NN cord-266898-f00628z4 157 6 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 157 7 most most JJS cord-266898-f00628z4 157 8 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 157 9 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 157 10 world world NN cord-266898-f00628z4 157 11 remains remain VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 157 12 uncertain uncertain JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 157 13 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 158 1 Special special JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 158 2 attention attention NN cord-266898-f00628z4 158 3 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 158 4 an an DT cord-266898-f00628z4 158 5 enlightened enlightened JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 158 6 society society NN cord-266898-f00628z4 158 7 should should MD cord-266898-f00628z4 158 8 be be VB cord-266898-f00628z4 158 9 focused focus VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 158 10 today today NN cord-266898-f00628z4 158 11 on on IN cord-266898-f00628z4 158 12 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 158 13 most most RBS cord-266898-f00628z4 158 14 painful painful JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 158 15 epidemic epidemic NN cord-266898-f00628z4 158 16 situation situation NN cord-266898-f00628z4 158 17 in in IN cord-266898-f00628z4 158 18 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 158 19 USA USA NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 158 20 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 158 21 Brazil Brazil NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 158 22 and and CC cord-266898-f00628z4 158 23 Russia Russia NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 158 24 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 159 1 The the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 159 2 statistics statistic NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 159 3 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 159 4 these these DT cord-266898-f00628z4 159 5 countries country NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 159 6 indicate indicate VBP cord-266898-f00628z4 159 7 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 159 8 absence absence NN cord-266898-f00628z4 159 9 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 159 10 a a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 159 11 precedent precedent NN cord-266898-f00628z4 159 12 in in IN cord-266898-f00628z4 159 13 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 159 14 history history NN cord-266898-f00628z4 159 15 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 159 16 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 159 17 epidemic epidemic NN cord-266898-f00628z4 159 18 compared compare VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 159 19 to to IN cord-266898-f00628z4 159 20 other other JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 159 21 countries country NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 159 22 that that WDT cord-266898-f00628z4 159 23 are be VBP cord-266898-f00628z4 159 24 already already RB cord-266898-f00628z4 159 25 close close JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 159 26 to to IN cord-266898-f00628z4 159 27 recovery recovery NN cord-266898-f00628z4 159 28 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 160 1 A a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 160 2 country country NN cord-266898-f00628z4 160 3 called call VBD cord-266898-f00628z4 160 4 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 160 5 World World NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 160 6 is be VBZ cord-266898-f00628z4 160 7 at at IN cord-266898-f00628z4 160 8 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 160 9 beginning beginning NN cord-266898-f00628z4 160 10 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 160 11 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 160 12 pandemic pandemic NN cord-266898-f00628z4 160 13 despite despite IN cord-266898-f00628z4 160 14 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 160 15 truly truly RB cord-266898-f00628z4 160 16 gigantic gigantic JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 160 17 scale scale NN cord-266898-f00628z4 160 18 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 160 19 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 160 20 disaster disaster NN cord-266898-f00628z4 160 21 already already RB cord-266898-f00628z4 160 22 achieved achieve VBN cord-266898-f00628z4 160 23 . . . cord-266898-f00628z4 161 1 A a DT cord-266898-f00628z4 161 2 novel novel JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 161 3 coronavirus coronavirus NN cord-266898-f00628z4 161 4 from from IN cord-266898-f00628z4 161 5 patients patient NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 161 6 with with IN cord-266898-f00628z4 161 7 pneumonia pneumonia NN cord-266898-f00628z4 161 8 in in IN cord-266898-f00628z4 161 9 China China NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 161 10 Novel Novel NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 161 11 Coronavirus Coronavirus NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 161 12 and and CC cord-266898-f00628z4 161 13 Old Old NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 161 14 Lessons lesson NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 162 1 -Preparing -prepare VBG cord-266898-f00628z4 163 1 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 163 2 Health Health NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 163 3 System System NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 163 4 for for IN cord-266898-f00628z4 163 5 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 163 6 Pandemic Pandemic NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 163 7 Dynamics Dynamics NNPS cord-266898-f00628z4 163 8 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 163 9 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 163 10 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 163 11 - - HYPH cord-266898-f00628z4 163 12 -Comparison -Comparison NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 163 13 between between IN cord-266898-f00628z4 163 14 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 163 15 Theoretical Theoretical NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 163 16 Predictions Predictions NNPS cord-266898-f00628z4 163 17 and and CC cord-266898-f00628z4 163 18 Real Real NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 163 19 Data datum NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 164 1 The the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 164 2 COVID-19 covid-19 CD cord-266898-f00628z4 164 3 pandemic pandemic NN cord-266898-f00628z4 164 4 : : : cord-266898-f00628z4 164 5 growth growth NN cord-266898-f00628z4 164 6 patterns pattern NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 164 7 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 164 8 power power NN cord-266898-f00628z4 164 9 - - HYPH cord-266898-f00628z4 164 10 law law NN cord-266898-f00628z4 164 11 scaling scaling NN cord-266898-f00628z4 164 12 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 164 13 and and CC cord-266898-f00628z4 164 14 saturation saturation NN cord-266898-f00628z4 164 15 Search search NN cord-266898-f00628z4 164 16 for for IN cord-266898-f00628z4 164 17 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 164 18 trend trend NN cord-266898-f00628z4 164 19 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 164 20 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 164 21 infection infection NN cord-266898-f00628z4 164 22 following follow VBG cord-266898-f00628z4 164 23 Farr Farr NNP cord-266898-f00628z4 164 24 's 's POS cord-266898-f00628z4 164 25 law law NN cord-266898-f00628z4 164 26 , , , cord-266898-f00628z4 164 27 IDEA idea NN cord-266898-f00628z4 164 28 model model NN cord-266898-f00628z4 164 29 and and CC cord-266898-f00628z4 164 30 power power NN cord-266898-f00628z4 164 31 law law NN cord-266898-f00628z4 165 1 Strong strong JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 165 2 correlations correlation NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 165 3 between between IN cord-266898-f00628z4 165 4 power power NN cord-266898-f00628z4 165 5 - - HYPH cord-266898-f00628z4 165 6 law law NN cord-266898-f00628z4 165 7 growth growth NN cord-266898-f00628z4 165 8 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 165 9 COVID-19 covid-19 CD cord-266898-f00628z4 165 10 in in IN cord-266898-f00628z4 165 11 four four CD cord-266898-f00628z4 165 12 continents continent NNS cord-266898-f00628z4 165 13 and and CC cord-266898-f00628z4 165 14 the the DT cord-266898-f00628z4 165 15 inefficiency inefficiency NN cord-266898-f00628z4 165 16 of of IN cord-266898-f00628z4 165 17 soft soft JJ cord-266898-f00628z4 165 18 quarantine quarantine NN cord-266898-f00628z4 165 19 strategies strategy NNS