id sid tid token lemma pos cord-048339-nzh87aux 1 1 key key NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 1 2 : : : cord-048339-nzh87aux 2 1 cord-048339-nzh87aux cord-048339-nzh87aux NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 2 2 authors author NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 2 3 : : : cord-048339-nzh87aux 2 4 Caley Caley NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 2 5 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 2 6 Peter Peter NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 2 7 ; ; : cord-048339-nzh87aux 2 8 Becker Becker NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 2 9 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 2 10 Niels Niels NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 2 11 G. G. NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 2 12 ; ; : cord-048339-nzh87aux 2 13 Philp Philp NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 2 14 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 2 15 David David NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 2 16 J. J. NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 2 17 title title NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 2 18 : : : cord-048339-nzh87aux 3 1 The the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 3 2 Waiting Waiting NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 3 3 Time time NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 3 4 for for IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 3 5 Inter Inter NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 3 6 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 3 7 Country Country NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 3 8 Spread Spread NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 3 9 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 3 10 Pandemic Pandemic NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 3 11 Influenza Influenza NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 3 12 date date NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 3 13 : : : cord-048339-nzh87aux 3 14 2007 2007 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 3 15 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 3 16 01 01 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 3 17 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 3 18 03 03 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 3 19 journal journal NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 3 20 : : : cord-048339-nzh87aux 4 1 PLoS PLoS NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 4 2 One one CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 4 3 DOI DOI NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 4 4 : : : cord-048339-nzh87aux 4 5 10.1371 10.1371 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 4 6 / / SYM cord-048339-nzh87aux 4 7 journal.pone.0000143 journal.pone.0000143 NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 4 8 sha sha NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 4 9 : : : cord-048339-nzh87aux 4 10 9b7a0ad7b6c7f59e7a6cf1dc9d07912a273d19b5 9b7a0ad7b6c7f59e7a6cf1dc9d07912a273d19b5 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 4 11 doc_id doc_id CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 4 12 : : : cord-048339-nzh87aux 4 13 48339 48339 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 4 14 cord_uid cord_uid NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 4 15 : : : cord-048339-nzh87aux 5 1 nzh87aux nzh87aux NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 5 2 BACKGROUND background NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 5 3 : : : cord-048339-nzh87aux 6 1 The the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 6 2 time time NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 6 3 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 6 4 between between IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 6 5 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 6 6 start start NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 6 7 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 6 8 an an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 6 9 influenza influenza NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 6 10 pandemic pandemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 6 11 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 6 12 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-048339-nzh87aux 6 13 subsequent subsequent JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 6 14 initiation initiation NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 6 15 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 6 16 other other JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 6 17 countries country NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 6 18 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 6 19 highly highly RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 6 20 relevant relevant JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 6 21 to to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 6 22 preparedness preparedness NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 6 23 planning planning NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 6 24 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 7 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-048339-nzh87aux 7 2 quantify quantify VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 7 3 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 7 4 distribution distribution NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 7 5 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 7 6 this this DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 7 7 random random JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 7 8 time time NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 7 9 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 7 10 terms term NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 7 11 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 7 12 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 7 13 separate separate JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 7 14 components component NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 7 15 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 7 16 this this DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 7 17 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 7 18 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 7 19 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 7 20 assess assess VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 7 21 how how WRB cord-048339-nzh87aux 7 22 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 7 23 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 7 24 may may MD cord-048339-nzh87aux 7 25 be be VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 7 26 extended extend VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 7 27 by by IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 7 28 non non JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 7 29 - - JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 7 30 pharmaceutical pharmaceutical JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 7 31 interventions intervention NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 7 32 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 8 1 METHODS methods NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 8 2 AND and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 8 3 FINDINGS finding NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 8 4 : : : cord-048339-nzh87aux 9 1 The the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 9 2 model model NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 9 3 constructed construct VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 9 4 for for IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 9 5 this this DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 9 6 time time NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 9 7 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 9 8 accounts account VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 9 9 for for IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 9 10 : : : cord-048339-nzh87aux 9 11 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 9 12 i i NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 9 13 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 9 14 epidemic epidemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 9 15 growth growth NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 9 16 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 9 17 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 9 18 source source NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 9 19 region region NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 9 20 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 9 21 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 9 22 ii ii NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 9 23 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 9 24 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 9 25 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 9 26 until until IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 9 27 an an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 9 28 infected infected JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 9 29 individual individual NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 9 30 from from IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 9 31 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 9 32 source source NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 9 33 region region NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 9 34 seeks seek VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 9 35 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 9 36 travel travel VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 9 37 to to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 9 38 an an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 9 39 at at IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 9 40 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 9 41 risk risk NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 9 42 country country NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 9 43 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 9 44 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 9 45 iii iii NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 9 46 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 10 1 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 10 2 chance chance NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 10 3 that that IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 10 4 infected infected JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 10 5 travelers traveler NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 10 6 are be VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 10 7 detected detect VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 10 8 by by IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 10 9 screening screen VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 10 10 at at IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 10 11 exit exit NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 10 12 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 10 13 entry entry NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 10 14 borders border NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 10 15 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 10 16 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 10 17 iv iv LS cord-048339-nzh87aux 10 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 11 1 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 11 2 possibility possibility NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 11 3 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 11 4 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 11 5 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 11 6 flight flight NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 11 7 transmission transmission NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 11 8 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 11 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 11 10 v v LS cord-048339-nzh87aux 11 11 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 11 12 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 11 13 chance chance NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 11 14 that that IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 11 15 an an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 11 16 infected infected JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 11 17 arrival arrival NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 11 18 might may MD cord-048339-nzh87aux 11 19 not not RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 11 20 initiate initiate VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 11 21 an an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 11 22 epidemic epidemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 11 23 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 11 24 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 11 25 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 11 26 vi vi NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 11 27 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 11 28 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 11 29 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 11 30 until until IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 11 31 infection infection NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 11 32 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 11 33 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 11 34 at at IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 11 35 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 11 36 risk risk NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 11 37 country country NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 11 38 gathers gather VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 11 39 momentum momentum NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 11 40 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 12 1 Efforts effort NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 12 2 that that WDT cord-048339-nzh87aux 12 3 reduce reduce VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 12 4 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 12 5 disease disease NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 12 6 reproduction reproduction NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 12 7 number number NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 12 8 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 12 9 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 12 10 source source NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 12 11 region region NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 12 12 below below IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 12 13 two two CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 12 14 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 12 15 severe severe JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 12 16 travel travel NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 12 17 restrictions restriction NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 12 18 are be VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 12 19 most most RBS cord-048339-nzh87aux 12 20 effective effective JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 12 21 for for IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 12 22 delaying delay VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 12 23 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 12 24 local local JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 12 25 epidemic epidemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 12 26 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 12 27 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 12 28 under under IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 12 29 favourable favourable JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 12 30 circumstances circumstance NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 12 31 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 12 32 could could MD cord-048339-nzh87aux 12 33 add add VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 12 34 several several JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 12 35 months month NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 12 36 to to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 12 37 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 12 38 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 12 39 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 13 1 On on IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 13 2 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 13 3 other other JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 13 4 hand hand NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 13 5 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 13 6 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 13 7 model model NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 13 8 predicts predict VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 13 9 that that IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 13 10 border border NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 13 11 screening screening NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 13 12 for for IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 13 13 symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 13 14 infection infection NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 13 15 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 13 16 wearing wear VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 13 17 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 13 18 protective protective JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 13 19 mask mask NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 13 20 during during IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 13 21 travel travel NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 13 22 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 13 23 promoting promote VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 13 24 early early JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 13 25 presentation presentation NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 13 26 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 13 27 cases case NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 13 28 arising arise VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 13 29 among among IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 13 30 arriving arrive VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 13 31 passengers passenger NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 13 32 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 13 33 moderate moderate JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 13 34 reduction reduction NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 13 35 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 13 36 travel travel NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 13 37 volumes volume NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 13 38 increase increase VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 13 39 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 13 40 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 13 41 only only RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 13 42 by by IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 13 43 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 13 44 matter matter NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 13 45 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 13 46 days day NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 13 47 or or CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 13 48 weeks week NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 13 49 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 14 1 Elevated elevate VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 14 2 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 14 3 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 14 4 flight flight NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 14 5 transmission transmission NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 14 6 reduces reduce VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 14 7 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 14 8 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 14 9 only only RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 14 10 minimally minimally RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 14 11 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 15 1 CONCLUSIONS conclusion NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 15 2 : : : cord-048339-nzh87aux 16 1 The the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 16 2 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 16 3 until until IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 16 4 an an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 16 5 epidemic epidemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 16 6 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 16 7 pandemic pandemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 16 8 strain strain NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 16 9 influenza influenza NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 16 10 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 16 11 imported import VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 16 12 into into IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 16 13 an an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 16 14 at at IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 16 15 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 16 16 risk risk NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 16 17 country country NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 16 18 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 16 19 largely largely RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 16 20 determined determine VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 16 21 by by IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 16 22 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 16 23 course course NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 16 24 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 16 25 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 16 26 epidemic epidemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 16 27 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 16 28 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 16 29 source source NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 16 30 region region NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 16 31 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 16 32 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 16 33 number number NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 16 34 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 16 35 travelers traveler NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 16 36 attempting attempt VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 16 37 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 16 38 enter enter VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 16 39 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 16 40 at at IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 16 41 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 16 42 risk risk NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 16 43 country country NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 16 44 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 16 45 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 16 46 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 16 47 little little RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 16 48 affected affect VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 16 49 by by IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 16 50 non non JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 16 51 - - JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 16 52 pharmaceutical pharmaceutical JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 16 53 interventions intervention NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 16 54 targeting target VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 16 55 these these DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 16 56 travelers traveler NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 16 57 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 17 1 Short short JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 17 2 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 17 3 preventing prevent VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 17 4 international international JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 17 5 travel travel NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 17 6 altogether altogether RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 17 7 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 17 8 eradicating eradicate VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 17 9 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 17 10 nascent nascent JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 17 11 pandemic pandemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 17 12 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 17 13 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 17 14 source source NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 17 15 region region NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 17 16 appears appear VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 17 17 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 17 18 be be VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 17 19 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 17 20 only only JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 17 21 reliable reliable JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 17 22 method method NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 17 23 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 17 24 preventing prevent VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 17 25 country country NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 17 26 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 17 27 to to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 17 28 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 17 29 country country NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 17 30 spread spread NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 17 31 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 17 32 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 17 33 pandemic pandemic JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 17 34 strain strain NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 17 35 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 17 36 influenza influenza NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 17 37 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 18 1 The the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 18 2 emergence emergence NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 18 3 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 18 4 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 18 5 pandemic pandemic JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 18 6 strain strain NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 18 7 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 18 8 influenza influenza NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 18 9 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 18 10 considered consider VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 18 11 inevitable inevitable JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 18 12 [ [ -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 18 13 1 1 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 18 14 ] ] -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 18 15 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 19 1 Provided provide VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 19 2 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 19 3 emerged emerge VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 19 4 strain strain NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 19 5 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 19 6 not not RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 19 7 too too RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 19 8 virulent virulent JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 19 9 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 19 10 it -PRON- PRP cord-048339-nzh87aux 19 11 may may MD cord-048339-nzh87aux 19 12 be be VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 19 13 possible possible JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 19 14 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 19 15 eliminate eliminate VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 19 16 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 19 17 nascent nascent JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 19 18 influenza influenza NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 19 19 pandemic pandemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 19 20 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 19 21 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 19 22 source source NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 19 23 region region NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 19 24 via via IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 19 25 various various JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 19 26 combinations combination NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 19 27 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 19 28 targeted target VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 19 29 antiviral antiviral JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 19 30 prophylaxis prophylaxis NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 19 31 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 19 32 pre pre JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 19 33 - - JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 19 34 vaccination vaccination JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 19 35 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 19 36 social social JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 19 37 distancing distancing NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 19 38 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 19 39 quarantine quarantine NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 19 40 [ [ -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 19 41 2 2 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 19 42 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 19 43 3 3 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 19 44 ] ] -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 19 45 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 20 1 If if IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 20 2 early early JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 20 3 elimination elimination NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 20 4 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 20 5 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 20 6 source source NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 20 7 region region NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 20 8 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 20 9 not not RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 20 10 achieved achieve VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 20 11 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 20 12 then then RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 20 13 any any DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 20 14 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 20 15 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 20 16 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 20 17 local local JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 20 18 epidemic epidemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 20 19 that that WDT cord-048339-nzh87aux 20 20 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 20 21 country country NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 20 22 can can MD cord-048339-nzh87aux 20 23 effect effect VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 20 24 will will MD cord-048339-nzh87aux 20 25 be be VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 20 26 highly highly RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 20 27 valued value VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 20 28 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 21 1 To to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 21 2 this this DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 21 3 end end NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 21 4 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 21 5 countries country NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 21 6 may may MD cord-048339-nzh87aux 21 7 consider consider VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 21 8 introducing introduce VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 21 9 non non JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 21 10 - - JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 21 11 pharmaceutical pharmaceutical JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 21 12 interventions intervention NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 21 13 such such JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 21 14 as as IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 21 15 border border NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 21 16 screening screening NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 21 17 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 21 18 promoting promote VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 21 19 early early JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 21 20 presentation presentation NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 21 21 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 21 22 cases case NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 21 23 among among IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 21 24 arriving arrive VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 21 25 passengers passenger NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 21 26 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 21 27 requiring require VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 21 28 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 21 29 use use NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 21 30 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 21 31 personal personal JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 21 32 protective protective JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 21 33 equipment equipment NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 21 34 during during IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 21 35 travels travel NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 21 36 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 21 37 e.g. e.g. IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 21 38 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 21 39 wearing wearing NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 21 40 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 21 41 masks mask NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 21 42 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 21 43 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 21 44 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 21 45 reducing reduce VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 21 46 traveler traveler NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 21 47 numbers number NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 21 48 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 22 1 While while IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 22 2 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 22 3 case case NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 22 4 for for IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 22 5 believing believe VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 22 6 that that IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 22 7 measures measure NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 22 8 such such JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 22 9 as as IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 22 10 these these DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 22 11 can can MD cord-048339-nzh87aux 22 12 not not RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 22 13 stop stop VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 22 14 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 22 15 importation importation NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 22 16 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 22 17 an an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 22 18 epidemic epidemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 22 19 from from IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 22 20 overseas overseas JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 22 21 has have VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 22 22 been be VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 22 23 argued argue VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 22 24 strongly strongly RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 22 25 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 22 26 whether whether IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 22 27 it -PRON- PRP cord-048339-nzh87aux 22 28 be be VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 22 29 SARS SARS NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 22 30 or or CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 22 31 influenza influenza NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 22 32 [ [ -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 22 33 4 4 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 22 34 ] ] -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 22 35 [ [ -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 22 36 5 5 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 22 37 ] ] -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 22 38 [ [ -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 22 39 6 6 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 22 40 ] ] -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 22 41 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 22 42 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 22 43 extent extent NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 22 44 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 22 45 which which WDT cord-048339-nzh87aux 22 46 such such JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 22 47 interventions intervention NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 22 48 delay delay VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 22 49 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 22 50 local local JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 22 51 epidemic epidemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 22 52 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 22 53 currently currently RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 22 54 not not RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 22 55 well well RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 22 56 quantified quantify VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 22 57 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 22 58 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 22 59 hence hence RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 22 60 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 22 61 considerable considerable JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 22 62 interest interest NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 22 63 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 23 1 In in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 23 2 this this DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 23 3 paper paper NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 23 4 we -PRON- PRP cord-048339-nzh87aux 23 5 demonstrate demonstrate VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 23 6 how how WRB cord-048339-nzh87aux 23 7 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 23 8 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 23 9 to to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 23 10 importation importation NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 23 11 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 23 12 an an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 23 13 epidemic epidemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 23 14 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 23 15 pandemic pandemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 23 16 strain strain NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 23 17 influenza influenza NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 23 18 may may MD cord-048339-nzh87aux 23 19 be be VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 23 20 quantified quantify VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 23 21 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 23 22 terms term NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 23 23 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 23 24 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 23 25 growing grow VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 23 26 infection infection NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 23 27 incidence incidence NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 23 28 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 23 29 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 23 30 source source NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 23 31 region region NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 23 32 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 23 33 traveler traveler NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 23 34 volumes volume NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 23 35 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 23 36 border border NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 23 37 screening screening NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 23 38 measures measure NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 23 39 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 23 40 travel travel NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 23 41 duration duration NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 23 42 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 23 43 inflight inflight NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 23 44 transmission transmission NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 23 45 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 23 46 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 23 47 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 23 48 until until IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 23 49 an an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 23 50 infected infect VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 23 51 arrival arrival NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 23 52 initiates initiate VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 23 53 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 23 54 chain chain NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 23 55 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 23 56 transmission transmission NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 23 57 that that WDT cord-048339-nzh87aux 23 58 gathers gather VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 23 59 momentum momentum NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 23 60 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 24 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-048339-nzh87aux 24 2 also also RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 24 3 investigate investigate VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 24 4 how how WRB cord-048339-nzh87aux 24 5 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 24 6 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 24 7 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 24 8 affected affect VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 24 9 by by IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 24 10 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 24 11 reproduction reproduction NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 24 12 number number NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 24 13 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 24 14 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 24 15 emerged emerge VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 24 16 strain strain NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 24 17 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 24 18 early early JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 24 19 presentation presentation NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 24 20 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 24 21 cases case NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 24 22 among among IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 24 23 arriving arrive VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 24 24 passengers passenger NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 24 25 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 24 26 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 24 27 reducing reduce VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 24 28 traveler traveler NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 24 29 numbers number NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 24 30 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 25 1 As as IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 25 2 noted note VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 25 3 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 25 4 previous previous JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 25 5 simulation simulation NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 25 6 modeling model VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 25 7 [ [ -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 25 8 7 7 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 25 9 ] ] -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 25 10 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 25 11 many many JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 25 12 aspects aspect NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 25 13 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 25 14 this this DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 25 15 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 25 16 have have VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 25 17 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 25 18 significant significant JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 25 19 chance chance NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 25 20 component component NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 25 21 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 25 22 making make VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 25 23 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 25 24 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 25 25 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 25 26 random random JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 25 27 variable variable NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 25 28 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 26 1 Therefore therefore RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 26 2 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 26 3 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 26 4 way way NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 26 5 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 26 6 quantify quantify VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 26 7 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 26 8 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 26 9 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 26 10 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 26 11 specify specify VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 26 12 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-048339-nzh87aux 26 13 probability probability NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 26 14 distribution distribution NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 26 15 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 26 16 which which WDT cord-048339-nzh87aux 26 17 we -PRON- PRP cord-048339-nzh87aux 26 18 call call VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 26 19 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 26 20 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 26 21 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 26 22 distribution distribution NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 26 23 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 27 1 Some some DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 27 2 issues issue NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 27 3 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 27 4 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 27 5 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 27 6 distribution distribution NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 27 7 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 27 8 such such JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 27 9 as as IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 27 10 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 27 11 natural natural JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 27 12 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 27 13 arising arise VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 27 14 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 27 15 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 27 16 absence absence NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 27 17 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 27 18 intervention intervention NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 27 19 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 27 20 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 27 21 effect effect NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 27 22 that that IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 27 23 reducing reduce VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 27 24 traveler traveler NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 27 25 numbers number NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 27 26 has have VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 27 27 on on IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 27 28 this this DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 27 29 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 27 30 has have VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 27 31 been be VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 27 32 studied study VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 27 33 previously previously RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 27 34 [ [ -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 27 35 6 6 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 27 36 ] ] -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 27 37 [ [ -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 27 38 7 7 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 27 39 ] ] -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 27 40 [ [ -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 27 41 8 8 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 27 42 ] ] -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 27 43 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 28 1 Specifically specifically RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 28 2 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 28 3 if if IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 28 4 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 28 5 originating originate VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 28 6 source source NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 28 7 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 28 8 not not RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 28 9 specified specify VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 28 10 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 28 11 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 28 12 homogeneous homogeneous JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 28 13 mixing mixing NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 28 14 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 28 15 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 28 16 worlds world NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 28 17 population population NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 28 18 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 28 19 assumed assume VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 28 20 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 28 21 then then RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 28 22 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 28 23 most most RBS cord-048339-nzh87aux 28 24 likely likely JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 28 25 time time NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 28 26 to to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 28 27 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 28 28 initial initial JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 28 29 cases case NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 28 30 arising arise VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 28 31 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 28 32 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 28 33 United United NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 28 34 States States NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 28 35 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 28 36 about about RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 28 37 50 50 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 28 38 days day NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 28 39 assuming assume VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 28 40 R r NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 28 41 0 0 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 28 42 = = NFP cord-048339-nzh87aux 29 1 2.0 2.0 LS cord-048339-nzh87aux 29 2 [ [ -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 29 3 7 7 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 29 4 ] ] -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 29 5 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 30 1 The the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 30 2 additional additional JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 30 3 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 30 4 arising arise VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 30 5 from from IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 30 6 travel travel NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 30 7 restrictions restriction NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 30 8 appears appear VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 30 9 minimal minimal JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 30 10 until until IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 30 11 a.99 a.99 NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 30 12 % % NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 30 13 reduction reduction NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 30 14 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 30 15 traveler traveler NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 30 16 numbers number NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 30 17 [ [ -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 30 18 6 6 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 30 19 ] ] -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 30 20 [ [ -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 30 21 7 7 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 30 22 ] ] -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 31 1 [ [ -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 31 2 8 8 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 31 3 ] ] -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 31 4 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 1 This this DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 2 paper paper NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 3 adds add VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 4 to to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 5 previous previous JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 6 work work NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 7 [ [ -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 8 5 5 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 9 ] ] -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 10 [ [ -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 11 6 6 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 12 ] ] -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 13 [ [ -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 14 7 7 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 15 ] ] -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 16 [ [ -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 17 8 8 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 18 ] ] -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 19 by by IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 20 simultaneously simultaneously RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 21 including include VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 22 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 23 wider wide JJR cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 24 range range NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 25 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 26 epidemiological epidemiological JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 27 factors factor NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 28 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 29 possible possible JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 30 interventions intervention NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 31 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 32 such such JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 33 as as IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 34 elevated elevated JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 35 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 36 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 37 flight flight NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 38 transmission transmission NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 39 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 40 flight flight NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 41 duration duration NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 42 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 43 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 44 effect effect NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 45 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 46 wearing wear VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 47 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 48 mask mask NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 49 during during IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 50 flight flight NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 51 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 52 early early JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 53 presentation presentation NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 54 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 55 cases case NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 56 among among IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 57 travelers traveler NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 58 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 59 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 60 quarantining quarantine VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 61 all all DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 62 passengers passenger NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 63 from from IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 64 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 65 flight flight NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 66 with with IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 67 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 68 detected detect VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 69 case case NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 70 at at IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 71 arrival arrival NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 32 72 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 33 1 Consider consider VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 33 2 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 33 3 region region NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 33 4 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 33 5 which which WDT cord-048339-nzh87aux 33 6 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 33 7 new new JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 33 8 pandemic pandemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 33 9 strain strain NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 33 10 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 33 11 influenza influenza NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 33 12 has have VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 33 13 emerged emerge VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 33 14 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 33 15 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 33 16 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 33 17 region region NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 33 18 currently currently RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 33 19 free free JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 33 20 from from IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 33 21 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 33 22 infection infection NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 33 23 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 34 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-048339-nzh87aux 34 2 refer refer VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 34 3 to to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 34 4 these these DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 34 5 as as IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 34 6 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 34 7 source source NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 34 8 region region NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 34 9 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 34 10 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 34 11 at at IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 34 12 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 34 13 risk risk NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 34 14 country country NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 34 15 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 34 16 respectively respectively RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 34 17 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 35 1 Travel travel VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 35 2 between between IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 35 3 these these DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 35 4 countries country NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 35 5 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 35 6 predominantly predominantly RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 35 7 via via IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 35 8 commercial commercial JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 35 9 air air NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 35 10 travel travel NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 35 11 and/or and/or CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 35 12 rapid rapid JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 35 13 transport transport NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 35 14 which which WDT cord-048339-nzh87aux 35 15 could could MD cord-048339-nzh87aux 35 16 potentially potentially RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 35 17 be be VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 35 18 subject subject JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 35 19 to to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 35 20 border border NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 35 21 screening screening NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 35 22 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 35 23 other other JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 35 24 interventions intervention NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 35 25 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 36 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-048339-nzh87aux 36 2 restrict restrict VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 36 3 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-048339-nzh87aux 36 4 discussion discussion NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 36 5 to to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 36 6 air air NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 36 7 travel travel NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 36 8 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 37 1 The the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 37 2 aim aim NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 37 3 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 37 4 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 37 5 assess assess VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 37 6 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 37 7 effects effect NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 37 8 that that WDT cord-048339-nzh87aux 37 9 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 37 10 variety variety NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 37 11 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 37 12 non non JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 37 13 - - JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 37 14 pharmaceutical pharmaceutical JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 37 15 border border NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 37 16 control control NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 37 17 measures measure NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 37 18 have have VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 37 19 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 37 20 individually individually RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 37 21 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 37 22 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 37 23 combination combination NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 37 24 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 37 25 on on IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 37 26 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 37 27 time time NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 37 28 it -PRON- PRP cord-048339-nzh87aux 37 29 takes take VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 37 30 before before RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 37 31 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 37 32 epidemic epidemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 37 33 takes take VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 37 34 off off RP cord-048339-nzh87aux 37 35 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 37 36 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 37 37 at at IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 37 38 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 37 39 risk risk NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 37 40 country country NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 37 41 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 38 1 An an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 38 2 epidemic epidemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 38 3 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 38 4 said say VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 38 5 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 38 6 have have VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 38 7 ' ' `` cord-048339-nzh87aux 38 8 ' ' '' cord-048339-nzh87aux 38 9 taken take VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 38 10 off off RP cord-048339-nzh87aux 38 11 ' ' '' cord-048339-nzh87aux 38 12 ' ' '' cord-048339-nzh87aux 38 13 when when WRB cord-048339-nzh87aux 38 14 it -PRON- PRP cord-048339-nzh87aux 38 15 reaches reach VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 38 16 20 20 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 38 17 current current JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 38 18 infectious infectious JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 38 19 cases case NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 38 20 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 38 21 after after IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 38 22 which which WDT cord-048339-nzh87aux 38 23 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-048339-nzh87aux 38 24 growth growth NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 38 25 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 38 26 highly highly RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 38 27 predictable predictable JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 38 28 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 38 29 i.e. i.e. FW cord-048339-nzh87aux 38 30 nearly nearly RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 38 31 deterministic deterministic JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 38 32 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 38 33 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 38 34 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 38 35 probability probability NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 38 36 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 38 37 fade fade NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 38 38 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 38 39 out out NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 38 40 by by IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 38 41 chance chance NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 38 42 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 38 43 very very RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 38 44 low low JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 38 45 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 38 46 if if IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 38 47 intervention intervention NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 38 48 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 38 49 not not RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 38 50 enhanced enhance VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 38 51 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 39 1 The the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 39 2 source source NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 39 3 country country NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 39 4 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 39 5 origin origin NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 39 6 will will MD cord-048339-nzh87aux 39 7 undoubtedly undoubtedly RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 39 8 have have VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 39 9 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 39 10 large large JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 39 11 impact impact NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 39 12 on on IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 39 13 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 39 14 natural natural JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 39 15 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 39 16 until until IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 39 17 importation importation NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 39 18 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 39 19 an an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 39 20 epidemic epidemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 39 21 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 39 22 although although IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 39 23 this this DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 39 24 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 39 25 difficult difficult JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 39 26 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 39 27 quantify quantify VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 39 28 [ [ -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 39 29 7 7 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 39 30 ] ] -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 39 31 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 40 1 An an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 40 2 alternative alternative NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 40 3 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 40 4 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 40 5 fix fix VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 40 6 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 40 7 originating originate VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 40 8 city city NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 40 9 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 40 10 for for IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 40 11 example example NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 40 12 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 40 13 highly highly RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 40 14 connected connect VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 40 15 city city NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 40 16 such such JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 40 17 as as IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 40 18 Hong Hong NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 40 19 Kong Kong NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 40 20 [ [ -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 40 21 6 6 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 40 22 ] ] -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 40 23 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 40 24 with with IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 40 25 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 40 26 obvious obvious JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 40 27 effect effect NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 40 28 that that WDT cord-048339-nzh87aux 40 29 results result NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 40 30 are be VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 40 31 highly highly RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 40 32 dependent dependent JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 40 33 on on IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 40 34 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 40 35 choice choice NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 40 36 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 41 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-048339-nzh87aux 41 2 adopt adopt VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 41 3 no no DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 41 4 specific specific JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 41 5 source source NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 41 6 region region NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 41 7 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 41 8 but but CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 41 9 assume assume VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 41 10 that that IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 41 11 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 41 12 number number NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 41 13 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 41 14 international international JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 41 15 travelers traveler NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 41 16 originating originate VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 41 17 from from IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 41 18 it -PRON- PRP cord-048339-nzh87aux 41 19 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 41 20 reasonably reasonably RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 41 21 small small JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 41 22 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 41 23 see see VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 41 24 Methods Methods NNPS cord-048339-nzh87aux 41 25 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 41 26 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 41 27 suggestive suggestive JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 41 28 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 41 29 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 41 30 rural rural JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 41 31 or or CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 41 32 semirural semirural JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 41 33 source source NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 41 34 region region NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 41 35 [ [ -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 41 36 2 2 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 41 37 ] ] -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 41 38 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 42 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-048339-nzh87aux 42 2 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 42 3 further further RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 42 4 assumed assume VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 42 5 that that IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 42 6 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 42 7 current current JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 42 8 heightened heighten VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 42 9 surveillance surveillance NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 42 10 for for IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 42 11 pandemic pandemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 42 12 influenza influenza NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 42 13 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 42 14 continued continue VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 42 15 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 42 16 that that IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 42 17 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 42 18 nascent nascent JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 42 19 pandemic pandemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 42 20 with with IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 42 21 human human NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 42 22 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 42 23 to to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 42 24 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 42 25 human human JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 42 26 transmission transmission NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 42 27 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 42 28 identified identify VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 42 29 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 42 30 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 42 31 pandemic pandemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 42 32 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 42 33 declared declare VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 42 34 when when WRB cord-048339-nzh87aux 42 35 there there EX cord-048339-nzh87aux 42 36 are be VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 42 37 10 10 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 42 38 concurrent concurrent JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 42 39 cases case NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 42 40 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 42 41 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 42 42 source source NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 42 43 region region NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 42 44 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 43 1 For for IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 43 2 an an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 43 3 epidemic epidemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 43 4 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 43 5 take take VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 43 6 off off RP cord-048339-nzh87aux 43 7 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 43 8 an an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 43 9 at at IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 43 10 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 43 11 risk risk NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 43 12 country country NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 43 13 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 43 14 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 43 15 series series NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 43 16 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 43 17 events event NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 43 18 need need VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 43 19 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 43 20 occur occur VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 43 21 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 44 1 First first RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 44 2 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 44 3 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 44 4 epidemic epidemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 44 5 needs need VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 44 6 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 44 7 get get VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 44 8 underway underway JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 44 9 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 44 10 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 44 11 source source NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 44 12 region region NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 44 13 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 45 1 Second second RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 45 2 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 45 3 an an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 45 4 intending intend VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 45 5 traveler traveler NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 45 6 needs need VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 45 7 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 45 8 be be VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 45 9 infected infect VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 45 10 shortly shortly RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 45 11 before before IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 45 12 departure departure NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 45 13 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 46 1 Third third RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 46 2 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 46 3 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 46 4 infected infected JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 46 5 traveler traveler NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 46 6 must must MD cord-048339-nzh87aux 46 7 actually actually RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 46 8 travel travel VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 46 9 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 46 10 successfully successfully RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 46 11 disembark disembark VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 46 12 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 46 13 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 46 14 at at IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 46 15 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 46 16 risk risk NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 46 17 country country NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 46 18 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 47 1 Fourth fourth RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 47 2 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 47 3 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 47 4 infected infected JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 47 5 traveler traveler NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 47 6 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 47 7 or or CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 47 8 fellow fellow JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 47 9 travelers traveler NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 47 10 infected infect VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 47 11 during during IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 47 12 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 47 13 flight flight NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 47 14 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 47 15 must must MD cord-048339-nzh87aux 47 16 initiate initiate VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 47 17 an an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 47 18 epidemic epidemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 47 19 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 47 20 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 47 21 at at IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 47 22 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 47 23 risk risk NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 47 24 country country NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 47 25 with with IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 47 26 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 47 27 infectiousness infectiousness NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 47 28 that that WDT cord-048339-nzh87aux 47 29 remains remain VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 47 30 upon upon IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 47 31 arrival arrival NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 47 32 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 48 1 Finally finally RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 48 2 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 48 3 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 48 4 epidemic epidemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 48 5 needs need VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 48 6 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 48 7 reach reach VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 48 8 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 48 9 sufficient sufficient JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 48 10 number number NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 48 11 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 48 12 cases case NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 48 13 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 48 14 begin begin VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 48 15 predictable predictable JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 48 16 exponential exponential JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 48 17 growth growth NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 48 18 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 49 1 International international JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 49 2 spread spread NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 49 3 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 49 4 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 49 5 emerged emerge VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 49 6 pandemic pandemic JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 49 7 strain strain NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 49 8 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 49 9 influenza influenza NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 49 10 may may MD cord-048339-nzh87aux 49 11 occur occur VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 49 12 when when WRB cord-048339-nzh87aux 49 13 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 49 14 recently recently RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 49 15 infected infect VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 49 16 person person NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 49 17 travels travel VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 49 18 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 50 1 By by IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 50 2 ' ' `` cord-048339-nzh87aux 50 3 recently recently RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 50 4 infected infect VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 50 5 ' ' '' cord-048339-nzh87aux 50 6 we -PRON- PRP cord-048339-nzh87aux 50 7 mean mean VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 50 8 that that IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 50 9 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-048339-nzh87aux 50 10 travel travel NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 50 11 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 50 12 scheduled schedule VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 50 13 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 50 14 occur occur VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 50 15 within within IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 50 16 ten ten CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 50 17 days day NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 50 18 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 50 19 being be VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 50 20 infected infect VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 50 21 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 51 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-048339-nzh87aux 51 2 assume assume VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 51 3 that that IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 51 4 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 51 5 number number NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 51 6 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 51 7 individuals individual NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 51 8 traveling travel VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 51 9 from from IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 51 10 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 51 11 source source NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 51 12 region region NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 51 13 to to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 51 14 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 51 15 at at IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 51 16 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 51 17 risk risk NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 51 18 country country NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 51 19 each each DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 51 20 day day NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 51 21 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 51 22 known know VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 51 23 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 52 1 The the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 52 2 probability probability NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 52 3 that that IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 52 4 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 52 5 randomly randomly RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 52 6 selected select VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 52 7 traveler traveler NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 52 8 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 52 9 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 52 10 recently recently RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 52 11 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 52 12 infected infect VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 52 13 person person NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 52 14 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 52 15 taken take VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 52 16 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 52 17 be be VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 52 18 equal equal JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 52 19 to to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 52 20 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 52 21 prevalence prevalence NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 52 22 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 52 23 recently recently RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 52 24 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 52 25 infected infect VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 52 26 people people NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 52 27 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 52 28 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 52 29 source source NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 52 30 region region NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 52 31 on on IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 52 32 that that DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 52 33 day day NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 52 34 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 1 The the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 2 incidence incidence NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 3 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 4 infection infection NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 5 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 6 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 7 source source NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 8 region region NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 9 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 10 assumed assume VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 11 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 12 grow grow VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 13 exponentially exponentially RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 14 initially initially RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 15 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 16 with with IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 17 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 18 rate rate NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 19 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 20 exponential exponential JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 21 growth growth NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 22 determined determine VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 23 by by IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 24 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 25 disease disease NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 26 reproduction reproduction NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 27 number number NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 28 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 29 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 30 mean mean JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 31 number number NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 32 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 33 cases case NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 34 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 35 single single JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 36 infective infective NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 37 generates generate NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 38 by by IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 39 direct direct JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 40 contact contact NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 41 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 42 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 43 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 44 serial serial JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 45 interval interval NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 46 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 47 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 48 average average JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 49 interval interval NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 50 from from IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 51 infection infection NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 52 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 53 one one CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 54 individual individual NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 55 to to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 56 when when WRB cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 57 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 58 contacts contact NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 59 are be VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 60 infected infect VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 61 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 62 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 63 Figure figure NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 64 1A 1a NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 65 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 53 66 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 54 1 The the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 54 2 time time NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 54 3 since since IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 54 4 infection infection NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 54 5 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 54 6 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 54 7 recently recently RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 54 8 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 54 9 infected infect VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 54 10 traveler traveler NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 54 11 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 54 12 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 54 13 key key JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 54 14 component component NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 54 15 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 54 16 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 54 17 calculations calculation NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 54 18 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 54 19 because because IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 54 20 it -PRON- PRP cord-048339-nzh87aux 54 21 affects affect VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 54 22 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 54 23 chance chance NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 54 24 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 54 25 positive positive JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 54 26 border border NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 54 27 screening screening NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 54 28 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 54 29 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 54 30 chance chance NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 54 31 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 54 32 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 54 33 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 54 34 flight flight NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 54 35 transmission transmission NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 54 36 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 54 37 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 54 38 infectivity infectivity NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 54 39 remaining remain VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 54 40 upon upon IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 54 41 arrival arrival NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 54 42 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 54 43 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 54 44 at at IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 54 45 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 54 46 risk risk NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 54 47 country country NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 54 48 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 55 1 The the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 55 2 time time NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 55 3 since since IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 55 4 infection infection NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 55 5 at at IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 55 6 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 55 7 time time NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 55 8 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 55 9 scheduled schedule VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 55 10 departure departure NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 55 11 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 55 12 random random JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 55 13 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 55 14 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 55 15 dependence dependence NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 55 16 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 55 17 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-048339-nzh87aux 55 18 probability probability NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 55 19 distribution distribution NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 55 20 on on IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 55 21 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 55 22 exponential exponential JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 55 23 growth growth NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 55 24 rate rate NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 55 25 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 55 26 infection infection NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 55 27 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 55 28 illustrated illustrate VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 55 29 by by IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 55 30 Figure figure NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 55 31 1B 1b NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 55 32 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 55 33 see see VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 55 34 also also RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 55 35 Supporting support VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 55 36 Information information NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 55 37 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 55 38 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 56 1 The the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 56 2 higher high JJR cord-048339-nzh87aux 56 3 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 56 4 epidemic epidemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 56 5 growth growth NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 56 6 rate rate NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 56 7 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 56 8 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 56 9 source source NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 56 10 region region NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 56 11 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 56 12 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 56 13 greater great JJR cord-048339-nzh87aux 56 14 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 56 15 probability probability NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 56 16 than than IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 56 17 an an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 56 18 infected infected JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 56 19 traveler traveler NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 56 20 will will MD cord-048339-nzh87aux 56 21 have have VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 56 22 been be VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 56 23 infected infect VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 56 24 more more RBR cord-048339-nzh87aux 56 25 recently recently RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 56 26 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 57 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-048339-nzh87aux 57 2 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 57 3 assumed assume VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 57 4 that that IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 57 5 individuals individual NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 57 6 detected detect VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 57 7 by by IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 57 8 departure departure NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 57 9 screening screening NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 57 10 are be VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 57 11 prevented prevent VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 57 12 from from IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 57 13 traveling travel VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 57 14 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 58 1 To to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 58 2 be be VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 58 3 detected detect VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 58 4 by by IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 58 5 screening screen VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 58 6 an an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 58 7 infected infected JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 58 8 traveler traveler NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 58 9 must must MD cord-048339-nzh87aux 58 10 be be VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 58 11 symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 58 12 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 58 13 positively positively RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 58 14 screened screen VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 58 15 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 59 1 An an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 59 2 individual individual NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 59 3 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 59 4 assumed assume VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 59 5 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 59 6 become become VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 59 7 symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 59 8 48 48 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 59 9 hours hour NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 59 10 after after IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 59 11 being be VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 59 12 infected infect VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 59 13 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 59 14 cf cf NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 59 15 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 60 1 [ [ -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 60 2 3 3 LS cord-048339-nzh87aux 60 3 ] ] -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 60 4 who who WP cord-048339-nzh87aux 60 5 use use VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 60 6 1.9 1.9 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 60 7 days day NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 60 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 60 9 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 61 1 The the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 61 2 probability probability NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 61 3 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 61 4 being be VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 61 5 symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 61 6 when when WRB cord-048339-nzh87aux 61 7 presenting present VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 61 8 for for IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 61 9 departure departure NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 61 10 screening screening NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 61 11 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 61 12 computed compute VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 61 13 from from IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 61 14 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 61 15 curve curve NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 61 16 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 61 17 Figure figure NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 61 18 1B 1b CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 61 19 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 62 1 The the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 62 2 distribution distribution NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 62 3 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 62 4 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 62 5 time time NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 62 6 since since IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 62 7 infection infection NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 62 8 immediately immediately RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 62 9 after after IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 62 10 departure departure NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 62 11 screening screening NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 62 12 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 62 13 given give VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 62 14 that that IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 62 15 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 62 16 infected infected JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 62 17 traveler traveler NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 62 18 was be VBD cord-048339-nzh87aux 62 19 not not RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 62 20 detected detect VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 62 21 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 62 22 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 62 23 given give VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 62 24 by by IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 62 25 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 62 26 curve curve NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 62 27 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 62 28 Figure Figure NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 62 29 1C 1c NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 62 30 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 63 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-048339-nzh87aux 63 2 contains contain VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 63 3 an an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 63 4 adjustment adjustment NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 63 5 for for IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 63 6 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 63 7 probability probability NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 63 8 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 63 9 being be VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 63 10 detected detect VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 63 11 at at IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 63 12 departure departure NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 63 13 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 64 1 The the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 64 2 instantaneous instantaneous JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 64 3 rate rate NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 64 4 at at IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 64 5 which which WDT cord-048339-nzh87aux 64 6 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 64 7 contacts contact NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 64 8 are be VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 64 9 infected infect VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 64 10 depends depend VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 64 11 on on IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 64 12 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 64 13 time time NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 64 14 since since IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 64 15 infection infection NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 64 16 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 64 17 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 64 18 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 64 19 described describe VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 64 20 by by IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 64 21 an an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 64 22 infectiousness infectiousness NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 64 23 function function NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 64 24 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 64 25 [ [ -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 64 26 9 9 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 64 27 ] ] -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 64 28 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 64 29 page page NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 64 30 45 45 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 64 31 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 64 32 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 65 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-048339-nzh87aux 65 2 use use VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 65 3 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 65 4 peaked peaked JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 65 5 infectiousness infectiousness NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 65 6 function function NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 65 7 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 65 8 motivated motivate VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 65 9 by by IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 65 10 viral viral JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 65 11 shedding shedding NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 65 12 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 65 13 household household NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 65 14 transmission transmission NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 65 15 data datum NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 65 16 [ [ -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 65 17 2 2 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 65 18 ] ] -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 65 19 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 65 20 which which WDT cord-048339-nzh87aux 65 21 has have VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 65 22 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 65 23 serial serial JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 65 24 interval interval NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 65 25 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 65 26 2.6 2.6 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 65 27 days day NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 65 28 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 66 1 The the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 66 2 basic basic JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 66 3 reproduction reproduction NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 66 4 number number NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 66 5 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 66 6 R r NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 66 7 0 0 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 66 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 66 9 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 66 10 namely namely RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 66 11 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 66 12 reproduction reproduction NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 66 13 number number NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 66 14 when when WRB cord-048339-nzh87aux 66 15 there there EX cord-048339-nzh87aux 66 16 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 66 17 no no DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 66 18 intervention intervention NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 66 19 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 66 20 place place NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 66 21 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 66 22 every every DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 66 23 contacted contact VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 66 24 individual individual NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 66 25 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 66 26 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 66 27 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 66 28 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 66 29 given give VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 66 30 by by IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 66 31 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 66 32 area area NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 66 33 under under IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 66 34 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 66 35 infectiousness infectiousness NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 66 36 function function NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 66 37 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 67 1 However however RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 67 2 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 67 3 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-048339-nzh87aux 67 4 concern concern NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 67 5 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 67 6 with with IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 67 7 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 67 8 effective effective JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 67 9 reproduction reproduction NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 67 10 number number NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 67 11 R r NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 67 12 that that WDT cord-048339-nzh87aux 67 13 holds hold VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 67 14 when when WRB cord-048339-nzh87aux 67 15 various various JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 67 16 interventions intervention NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 67 17 are be VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 67 18 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 67 19 place place NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 67 20 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 68 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-048339-nzh87aux 68 2 obtain obtain VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 68 3 any any DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 68 4 R r NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 68 5 by by IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 68 6 simply simply RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 68 7 multiplying multiply VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 68 8 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 68 9 infectiousness infectiousness NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 68 10 function function NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 68 11 by by IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 68 12 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 68 13 appropriate appropriate JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 68 14 constant constant NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 68 15 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 68 16 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 68 17 make make VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 68 18 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 68 19 area area NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 68 20 under under IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 68 21 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 68 22 curve curve NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 68 23 equal equal JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 68 24 to to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 68 25 R r NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 68 26 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 68 27 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 69 1 This this DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 69 2 keeps keep VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 69 3 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 69 4 serial serial JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 69 5 interval interval NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 69 6 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 69 7 same same JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 69 8 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 70 1 In in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 70 2 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 70 3 absence absence NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 70 4 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 70 5 suitable suitable JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 70 6 data datum NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 70 7 we -PRON- PRP cord-048339-nzh87aux 70 8 assume assume VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 70 9 for for IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 70 10 most most JJS cord-048339-nzh87aux 70 11 scenarios scenario NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 70 12 that that WDT cord-048339-nzh87aux 70 13 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 70 14 aircrafts aircraft NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 70 15 ventilation ventilation NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 70 16 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 70 17 filtration filtration NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 70 18 systems system NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 70 19 are be VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 70 20 functioning function VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 70 21 properly properly RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 70 22 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 70 23 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 70 24 that that IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 70 25 infected infected JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 70 26 travelers traveler NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 70 27 transmit transmit VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 70 28 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 70 29 infection infection NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 70 30 at at IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 70 31 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 70 32 same same JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 70 33 rate rate NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 70 34 during during IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 70 35 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 70 36 flight flight NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 70 37 as as IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 70 38 they -PRON- PRP cord-048339-nzh87aux 70 39 would would MD cord-048339-nzh87aux 70 40 while while IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 70 41 mixing mix VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 70 42 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 70 43 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 70 44 community community NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 70 45 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 71 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-048339-nzh87aux 71 2 examine examine VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 71 3 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 71 4 sensitivity sensitivity NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 71 5 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 71 6 this this DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 71 7 assumption assumption NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 71 8 by by IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 71 9 increasing increase VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 71 10 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 71 11 inflight inflight NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 71 12 transmission transmission NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 71 13 by by IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 71 14 as as RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 71 15 much much JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 71 16 as as IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 71 17 10-fold 10-fold JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 71 18 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 71 19 as as IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 71 20 could could MD cord-048339-nzh87aux 71 21 potentially potentially RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 71 22 happen happen VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 71 23 if if IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 71 24 air air NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 71 25 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 71 26 circulation circulation NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 71 27 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 71 28 filtration filtration NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 71 29 systems system NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 71 30 malfunction malfunction NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 71 31 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 71 32 e.g. e.g. RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 71 33 see see VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 71 34 [ [ -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 71 35 10 10 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 71 36 ] ] -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 71 37 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 71 38 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 72 1 The the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 72 2 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 72 3 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 72 4 flight flight NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 72 5 transmission transmission NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 72 6 rate rate NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 72 7 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 72 8 set set VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 72 9 to to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 72 10 zero zero CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 72 11 under under IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 72 12 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 72 13 optimistic optimistic JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 72 14 scenario scenario NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 72 15 that that IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 72 16 all all DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 72 17 travelers traveler NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 72 18 wear wear VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 72 19 100 100 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 72 20 % % NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 72 21 effective effective JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 72 22 masks mask NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 72 23 during during IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 72 24 transit transit NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 72 25 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 73 1 In in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 73 2 terms term NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 73 3 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 73 4 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 73 5 sensitivity sensitivity NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 73 6 analysis analysis NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 73 7 this this DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 73 8 illustrates illustrate VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 73 9 what what WP cord-048339-nzh87aux 73 10 would would MD cord-048339-nzh87aux 73 11 be be VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 73 12 achievable achievable JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 73 13 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 73 14 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 73 15 best good JJS cord-048339-nzh87aux 73 16 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 73 17 case case NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 73 18 scenario scenario NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 73 19 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 74 1 The the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 74 2 number number NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 74 3 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 74 4 offspring offspring NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 74 5 that that WDT cord-048339-nzh87aux 74 6 an an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 74 7 infected infected JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 74 8 traveler traveler NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 74 9 infects infect VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 74 10 during during IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 74 11 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 74 12 flight flight NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 74 13 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 74 14 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 74 15 random random JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 74 16 variable variable NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 74 17 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 74 18 taken take VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 74 19 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 74 20 have have VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 74 21 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 74 22 Poisson Poisson NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 74 23 distribution distribution NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 74 24 with with IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 74 25 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 74 26 mean mean NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 74 27 equal equal JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 74 28 to to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 74 29 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 74 30 area area NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 74 31 under under IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 74 32 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 74 33 infectiousness infectiousness NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 74 34 function function VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 74 35 over over IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 74 36 to to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 74 37 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 74 38 flight flight NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 74 39 duration duration NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 74 40 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 75 1 Travelers traveler NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 75 2 infected infect VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 75 3 during during IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 75 4 flights flight NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 75 5 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 75 6 less less JJR cord-048339-nzh87aux 75 7 than than IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 75 8 12 12 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 75 9 hours hour NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 75 10 duration duration NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 75 11 are be VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 75 12 asymptomatic asymptomatic JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 75 13 at at IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 75 14 arrival arrival NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 75 15 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 75 16 will will MD cord-048339-nzh87aux 75 17 not not RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 75 18 be be VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 75 19 detected detect VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 75 20 by by IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 75 21 screening screen VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 75 22 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 76 1 The the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 76 2 probability probability NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 76 3 that that IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 76 4 an an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 76 5 arriving arrive VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 76 6 traveler traveler NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 76 7 who who WP cord-048339-nzh87aux 76 8 was be VBD cord-048339-nzh87aux 76 9 infected infect VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 76 10 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 76 11 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 76 12 source source NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 76 13 region region NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 76 14 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 76 15 detected detect VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 76 16 on on IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 76 17 arrival arrival NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 76 18 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 76 19 computed compute VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 76 20 from from IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 76 21 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 76 22 distribution distribution NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 76 23 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 76 24 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 76 25 time time NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 76 26 since since IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 76 27 infection infection NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 76 28 on on IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 76 29 arrival arrival NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 76 30 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 77 1 This this DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 77 2 distribution distribution NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 77 3 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 77 4 obtained obtain VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 77 5 from from IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 77 6 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 77 7 curve curve NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 77 8 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 77 9 Figure figure NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 77 10 1C 1c NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 77 11 by by IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 77 12 shifting shift VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 77 13 it -PRON- PRP cord-048339-nzh87aux 77 14 to to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 77 15 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 77 16 right right NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 77 17 by by IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 77 18 an an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 77 19 amount amount NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 77 20 equal equal JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 77 21 to to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 77 22 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 77 23 duration duration NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 77 24 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 77 25 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 77 26 flight flight NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 77 27 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 78 1 The the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 78 2 distribution distribution NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 78 3 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 78 4 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 78 5 time time NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 78 6 since since IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 78 7 infection infection NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 78 8 for for IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 78 9 an an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 78 10 individual individual JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 78 11 infected infect VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 78 12 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 78 13 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 78 14 source source NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 78 15 region region NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 78 16 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 78 17 who who WP cord-048339-nzh87aux 78 18 passes pass VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 78 19 through through IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 78 20 arrival arrival NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 78 21 screening screening NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 78 22 undetected undetected JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 78 23 has have VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 78 24 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 78 25 further further JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 78 26 adjustment adjustment NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 78 27 for for IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 78 28 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 78 29 chance chance NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 78 30 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 78 31 being be VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 78 32 detected detect VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 78 33 at at IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 78 34 arrival arrival NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 78 35 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 78 36 Figure figure NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 78 37 1D 1d CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 78 38 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 78 39 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 79 1 This this DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 79 2 curve curve NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 79 3 shows show VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 79 4 that that IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 79 5 an an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 79 6 infected infected JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 79 7 traveler traveler NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 79 8 who who WP cord-048339-nzh87aux 79 9 escapes escape VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 79 10 detection detection NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 79 11 at at IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 79 12 departure departure NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 79 13 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 79 14 arrival arrival NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 79 15 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 79 16 highly highly RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 79 17 likely likely JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 79 18 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 79 19 enter enter VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 79 20 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 79 21 at at IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 79 22 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 79 23 risk risk NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 79 24 country country NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 79 25 with with IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 79 26 most most JJS cord-048339-nzh87aux 79 27 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 79 28 or or CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 79 29 all all DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 79 30 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 79 31 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 79 32 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-048339-nzh87aux 79 33 infectious infectious JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 79 34 period period NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 79 35 remaining remain VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 79 36 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 80 1 Authorities authority NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 80 2 are be VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 80 3 assumed assume VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 80 4 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 80 5 implement implement VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 80 6 one one CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 80 7 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 80 8 two two CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 80 9 control control NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 80 10 options option NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 80 11 when when WRB cord-048339-nzh87aux 80 12 detecting detect VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 80 13 an an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 80 14 infected infected JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 80 15 traveler traveler NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 80 16 by by IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 80 17 arrival arrival NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 80 18 screening screening NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 80 19 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 81 1 Under under IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 81 2 option option NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 81 3 one one CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 81 4 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 81 5 individual individual NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 81 6 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 81 7 based base VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 81 8 removal removal NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 81 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 81 10 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 81 11 all all DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 81 12 passengers passenger NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 81 13 who who WP cord-048339-nzh87aux 81 14 test test VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 81 15 negative negative JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 81 16 are be VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 81 17 released release VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 81 18 immediately immediately RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 81 19 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 81 20 only only JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 81 21 passengers passenger NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 81 22 who who WP cord-048339-nzh87aux 81 23 test test VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 81 24 positive positive JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 81 25 are be VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 81 26 isolated isolate VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 81 27 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 82 1 Under under IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 82 2 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 82 3 second second JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 82 4 option option NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 82 5 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 82 6 flight flight NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 82 7 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 82 8 based base VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 82 9 quarantining quarantining NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 82 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 82 11 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 82 12 authorities authority NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 82 13 prevent prevent VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 82 14 all all DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 82 15 passengers passenger NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 82 16 from from IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 82 17 dispersing disperse VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 82 18 into into IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 82 19 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 82 20 community community NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 82 21 until until IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 82 22 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 82 23 last last JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 82 24 person person NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 82 25 has have VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 82 26 been be VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 82 27 screened screen VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 82 28 from from IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 82 29 that that DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 82 30 flight flight NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 82 31 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 83 1 Should Should MD cord-048339-nzh87aux 83 2 any any DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 83 3 one one CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 83 4 passenger passenger NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 83 5 be be VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 83 6 detected detect VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 83 7 as as IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 83 8 infected infect VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 83 9 then then RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 83 10 all all DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 83 11 passengers passenger NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 83 12 will will MD cord-048339-nzh87aux 83 13 be be VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 83 14 quarantined quarantine VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 83 15 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 83 16 as as IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 83 17 previously previously RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 83 18 recommended recommend VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 83 19 [ [ -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 83 20 5 5 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 83 21 ] ] -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 83 22 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 84 1 Transmission transmission NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 84 2 chains chain NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 84 3 can can MD cord-048339-nzh87aux 84 4 be be VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 84 5 initiated initiate VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 84 6 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 84 7 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 84 8 at at IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 84 9 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 84 10 risk risk NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 84 11 country country NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 84 12 by by IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 84 13 infected infected JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 84 14 travelers traveler NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 84 15 who who WP cord-048339-nzh87aux 84 16 mix mix VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 84 17 within within IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 84 18 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 84 19 community community NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 84 20 upon upon IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 84 21 arrival arrival NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 84 22 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 85 1 Suppose suppose VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 85 2 now now RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 85 3 that that IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 85 4 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 85 5 flight flight NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 85 6 arrives arrive VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 85 7 with with IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 85 8 one one CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 85 9 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 85 10 or or CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 85 11 more more JJR cord-048339-nzh87aux 85 12 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 85 13 infected infected JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 85 14 passengers passenger NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 85 15 who who WP cord-048339-nzh87aux 85 16 mix mix VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 85 17 within within IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 85 18 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 85 19 community community NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 85 20 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 86 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-048339-nzh87aux 86 2 classify classify VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 86 3 these these DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 86 4 infected infect VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 86 5 arrivals arrival NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 86 6 into into IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 86 7 those those DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 86 8 who who WP cord-048339-nzh87aux 86 9 are be VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 86 10 ' ' `` cord-048339-nzh87aux 86 11 pre pre JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 86 12 - - JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 86 13 symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 86 14 ' ' '' cord-048339-nzh87aux 86 15 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 86 16 those those DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 86 17 who who WP cord-048339-nzh87aux 86 18 are be VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 86 19 ' ' `` cord-048339-nzh87aux 86 20 symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 86 21 ' ' '' cord-048339-nzh87aux 86 22 at at IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 86 23 entry entry NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 86 24 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 87 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-048339-nzh87aux 87 2 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 87 3 assumed assume VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 87 4 that that IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 87 5 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 87 6 ' ' `` cord-048339-nzh87aux 87 7 symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 87 8 ' ' '' cord-048339-nzh87aux 87 9 infected infected JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 87 10 arrivals arrival NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 87 11 do do VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 87 12 not not RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 87 13 recognize recognize VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 87 14 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-048339-nzh87aux 87 15 symptoms symptom NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 87 16 as as IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 87 17 pandemic pandemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 87 18 influenza influenza NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 87 19 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 87 20 will will MD cord-048339-nzh87aux 87 21 not not RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 87 22 present present VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 87 23 to to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 87 24 medical medical JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 87 25 authorities authority NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 87 26 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 88 1 In in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 88 2 other other JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 88 3 words word NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 88 4 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 88 5 they -PRON- PRP cord-048339-nzh87aux 88 6 spend spend VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 88 7 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 88 8 remainder remainder NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 88 9 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 88 10 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-048339-nzh87aux 88 11 infectious infectious JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 88 12 period period NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 88 13 mixing mix VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 88 14 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 88 15 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 88 16 community community NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 88 17 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 89 1 On on IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 89 2 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 89 3 other other JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 89 4 hand hand NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 89 5 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 89 6 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 89 7 ' ' `` cord-048339-nzh87aux 89 8 presymptomatic presymptomatic JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 89 9 ' ' '' cord-048339-nzh87aux 89 10 infected infected JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 89 11 arrivals arrival NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 89 12 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 89 13 including include VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 89 14 all all DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 89 15 individuals individual NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 89 16 infected infect VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 89 17 during during IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 89 18 flight flight NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 89 19 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 89 20 are be VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 89 21 assumed assume VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 89 22 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 89 23 mix mix VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 89 24 freely freely RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 89 25 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 89 26 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 89 27 community community NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 89 28 only only RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 89 29 from from IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 89 30 entry entry NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 89 31 until until IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 89 32 they -PRON- PRP cord-048339-nzh87aux 89 33 present present JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 89 34 to to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 89 35 medical medical JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 89 36 authorities authority NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 89 37 after after IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 89 38 some some DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 89 39 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 89 40 following follow VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 89 41 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 89 42 onset onset NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 89 43 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 89 44 symptoms symptom NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 89 45 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 90 1 Not not RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 90 2 all all DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 90 3 infected infected JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 90 4 travelers traveler NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 90 5 entering enter VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 90 6 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 90 7 community community NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 90 8 initiate initiate VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 90 9 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 90 10 ' ' `` cord-048339-nzh87aux 90 11 major major JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 90 12 ' ' '' cord-048339-nzh87aux 90 13 epidemic epidemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 90 14 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 90 15 even even RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 90 16 when when WRB cord-048339-nzh87aux 90 17 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 90 18 reproduction reproduction NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 90 19 number number NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 90 20 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 90 21 R r NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 90 22 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 90 23 exceeds exceed VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 90 24 one one CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 90 25 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 91 1 Quite quite RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 91 2 generally generally RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 91 3 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 91 4 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 91 5 distribution distribution NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 91 6 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 91 7 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 91 8 size size NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 91 9 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 91 10 an an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 91 11 epidemic epidemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 91 12 initiated initiate VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 91 13 by by IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 91 14 an an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 91 15 infected infected JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 91 16 arrival arrival NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 91 17 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 91 18 bimodal bimodal JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 91 19 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 91 20 with with IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 91 21 distinct distinct JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 91 22 peaks peak NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 91 23 corresponding correspond VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 91 24 to to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 91 25 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 91 26 major major JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 91 27 epidemic epidemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 91 28 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 91 29 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 91 30 minor minor JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 91 31 outbreak outbreak NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 91 32 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 91 33 Figure figure NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 91 34 1E 1e CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 91 35 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 91 36 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 92 1 In in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 92 2 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 92 3 latter latter JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 92 4 event event NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 92 5 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 92 6 outbreak outbreak NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 92 7 simply simply RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 92 8 fades fade VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 92 9 out out RP cord-048339-nzh87aux 92 10 by by IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 92 11 chance chance NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 92 12 despite despite IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 92 13 there there EX cord-048339-nzh87aux 92 14 being be VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 92 15 ample ample JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 92 16 susceptibles susceptible NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 92 17 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 92 18 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 92 19 population population NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 92 20 for for IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 92 21 ongoing ongoing JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 92 22 trans- trans- XX cord-048339-nzh87aux 93 1 In in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 93 2 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 93 3 B b NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 93 4 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 93 5 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 93 6 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 93 7 step step NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 93 8 illustrates illustrate VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 93 9 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 93 10 probabilistic probabilistic JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 93 11 removal removal NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 93 12 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 93 13 travelers traveler NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 93 14 who who WP cord-048339-nzh87aux 93 15 have have VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 93 16 completed complete VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 93 17 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-048339-nzh87aux 93 18 incubation incubation NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 93 19 period period NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 93 20 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 94 1 In in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 94 2 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 94 3 D D NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 94 4 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 94 5 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 94 6 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 94 7 distribution distribution NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 94 8 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 94 9 time time NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 94 10 since since IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 94 11 infection infection NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 94 12 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 94 13 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 94 14 C C NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 94 15 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 94 16 will will MD cord-048339-nzh87aux 94 17 have have VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 94 18 shifted shift VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 94 19 to to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 94 20 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 94 21 right right NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 94 22 by by IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 94 23 an an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 94 24 amount amount NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 94 25 equal equal JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 94 26 to to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 94 27 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 94 28 flight flight NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 94 29 duration duration NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 94 30 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 94 31 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 94 32 cases case NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 94 33 incubated incubate VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 94 34 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 94 35 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 94 36 flight flight NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 94 37 may may MD cord-048339-nzh87aux 94 38 be be VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 94 39 detected detect VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 94 40 by by IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 94 41 symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 94 42 screening screening NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 94 43 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 94 44 as as IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 94 45 will will MD cord-048339-nzh87aux 94 46 those those DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 94 47 symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 94 48 cases case NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 94 49 that that WDT cord-048339-nzh87aux 94 50 were be VBD cord-048339-nzh87aux 94 51 not not RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 94 52 detected detect VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 94 53 previously previously RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 94 54 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 95 1 Screening screen VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 95 2 sensitivity sensitivity NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 95 3 for for IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 95 4 this this DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 95 5 illustration illustration NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 95 6 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 95 7 60 60 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 95 8 % % NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 95 9 on on IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 95 10 both both DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 95 11 departure departure NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 95 12 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 95 13 arrival arrival NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 95 14 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 96 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 96 2 E e UH cord-048339-nzh87aux 96 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 96 4 Upon upon IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 96 5 entering enter VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 96 6 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 96 7 community community NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 96 8 undetected undetected JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 96 9 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 96 10 an an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 96 11 infected infected JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 96 12 traveler traveler NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 96 13 may may MD cord-048339-nzh87aux 96 14 initiate initiate VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 96 15 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 96 16 minor minor JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 96 17 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 96 18 inconsequential inconsequential JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 96 19 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 96 20 or or CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 96 21 major major JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 96 22 epidemic epidemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 96 23 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 96 24 depending depend VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 96 25 on on IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 96 26 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 96 27 characteristics characteristic NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 96 28 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 96 29 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 96 30 disease disease NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 96 31 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 96 32 public public JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 96 33 health health NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 96 34 policy policy NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 96 35 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 97 1 doi:10.1371 doi:10.1371 NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 98 1 /journal.pone.0000143.g001 /journal.pone.0000143.g001 NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 98 2 mission mission NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 98 3 [ [ -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 98 4 11 11 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 98 5 ] ] -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 98 6 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 99 1 The the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 99 2 number number NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 99 3 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 99 4 cases case NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 99 5 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 99 6 an an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 99 7 outbreak outbreak NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 99 8 that that WDT cord-048339-nzh87aux 99 9 fades fade VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 99 10 out out RP cord-048339-nzh87aux 99 11 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 99 12 typically typically RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 99 13 very very RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 99 14 small small JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 99 15 compared compare VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 99 16 to to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 99 17 an an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 99 18 epidemic epidemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 99 19 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 100 1 The the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 100 2 probability probability NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 100 3 that that IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 100 4 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 100 5 typical typical JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 100 6 infective infective NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 100 7 generates generate VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 100 8 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 100 9 local local JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 100 10 epidemic epidemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 100 11 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 100 12 computed compute VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 100 13 by by IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 100 14 using use VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 100 15 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 100 16 branching branch VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 100 17 process process NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 100 18 approximation approximation NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 100 19 [ [ -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 100 20 12 12 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 100 21 ] ] -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 100 22 for for IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 100 23 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 100 24 initial initial JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 100 25 stages stage NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 100 26 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 100 27 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 100 28 epidemic epidemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 100 29 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 100 30 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 100 31 equating equate VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 100 32 ' ' `` cord-048339-nzh87aux 100 33 epidemic epidemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 100 34 ' ' '' cord-048339-nzh87aux 100 35 with with IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 100 36 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 100 37 event event NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 100 38 that that IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 100 39 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 100 40 branching branching NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 100 41 process process NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 100 42 does do VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 100 43 not not RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 100 44 become become VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 100 45 extinct extinct JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 100 46 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 101 1 This this DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 101 2 calculation calculation NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 101 3 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 101 4 well well RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 101 5 known known JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 101 6 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 101 7 e.g. e.g. RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 101 8 [ [ -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 101 9 13 13 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 101 10 ] ] -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 101 11 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 101 12 page page NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 101 13 473 473 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 101 14 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 101 15 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 101 16 but but CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 101 17 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 101 18 modified modify VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 101 19 here here RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 101 20 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 101 21 allow allow VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 101 22 for for IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 101 23 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 101 24 fact fact NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 101 25 that that IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 101 26 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 101 27 process process NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 101 28 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 101 29 initiated initiate VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 101 30 by by IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 101 31 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 101 32 random random JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 101 33 number number NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 101 34 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 101 35 infected infected JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 101 36 arrivals arrival NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 101 37 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 101 38 some some DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 101 39 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 101 40 them -PRON- PRP cord-048339-nzh87aux 101 41 have have VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 101 42 spent spend VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 101 43 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 101 44 random random JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 101 45 part part NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 101 46 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 101 47 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-048339-nzh87aux 101 48 infectious infectious JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 101 49 period period NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 101 50 before before IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 101 51 arriving arrive VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 101 52 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 101 53 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 101 54 at at IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 101 55 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 101 56 risk risk NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 101 57 country country NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 101 58 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 102 1 The the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 102 2 distribution distribution NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 102 3 for for IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 102 4 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 102 5 random random JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 102 6 number number NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 102 7 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 102 8 individuals individual NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 102 9 infected infect VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 102 10 by by IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 102 11 an an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 102 12 infected infected JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 102 13 individual individual NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 102 14 when when WRB cord-048339-nzh87aux 102 15 all all DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 102 16 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-048339-nzh87aux 102 17 contacts contact NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 102 18 are be VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 102 19 with with IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 102 20 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 102 21 individuals individual NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 102 22 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 102 23 needed need VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 102 24 for for IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 102 25 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 102 26 calculation calculation NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 102 27 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 103 1 The the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 103 2 lack lack NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 103 3 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 103 4 data datum NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 103 5 prevents prevent VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 103 6 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 103 7 definitive definitive JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 103 8 conclusion conclusion NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 103 9 for for IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 103 10 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 103 11 most most RBS cord-048339-nzh87aux 103 12 appropriate appropriate JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 103 13 offspring offspring NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 103 14 distribution distribution NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 103 15 for for IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 103 16 influenza influenza NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 103 17 transmission transmission NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 103 18 [ [ -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 103 19 14 14 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 103 20 ] ] -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 103 21 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 103 22 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 103 23 we -PRON- PRP cord-048339-nzh87aux 103 24 use use VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 103 25 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 103 26 Poisson Poisson NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 103 27 distribution distribution NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 103 28 with with IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 103 29 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 103 30 mean mean NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 103 31 equal equal JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 103 32 to to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 103 33 R r NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 103 34 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 103 35 discounted discount VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 103 36 for for IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 103 37 individuals individual NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 103 38 who who WP cord-048339-nzh87aux 103 39 spent spend VBD cord-048339-nzh87aux 103 40 only only RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 103 41 some some DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 103 42 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 103 43 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-048339-nzh87aux 103 44 infectious infectious JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 103 45 period period NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 103 46 mixing mix VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 103 47 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 103 48 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 103 49 at at IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 103 50 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 103 51 risk risk NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 103 52 country country NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 103 53 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 104 1 A a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 104 2 Poisson Poisson NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 104 3 offspring offspring NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 104 4 distribution distribution NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 104 5 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 104 6 appropriate appropriate JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 104 7 when when WRB cord-048339-nzh87aux 104 8 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 104 9 area area NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 104 10 under under IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 104 11 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 104 12 infectiousness infectiousness NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 104 13 function function NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 104 14 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 104 15 non non JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 104 16 - - JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 104 17 random random JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 104 18 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 104 19 i.e. i.e. FW cord-048339-nzh87aux 104 20 all all DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 104 21 individuals individual NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 104 22 have have VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 104 23 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 104 24 same same JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 104 25 infection infection NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 104 26 ' ' '' cord-048339-nzh87aux 104 27 potential potential NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 104 28 ' ' '' cord-048339-nzh87aux 104 29 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 104 30 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 105 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-048339-nzh87aux 105 2 assume assume VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 105 3 that that IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 105 4 R r NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 105 5 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 105 6 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 105 7 same same JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 105 8 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 105 9 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 105 10 source source NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 105 11 region region NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 105 12 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 105 13 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 105 14 at at IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 105 15 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 105 16 risk risk NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 105 17 country country NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 105 18 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 106 1 For for IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 106 2 an an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 106 3 undetected undetected JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 106 4 infected infected JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 106 5 traveler traveler NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 106 6 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 106 7 all all PDT cord-048339-nzh87aux 106 8 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-048339-nzh87aux 106 9 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 106 10 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 106 11 flight flight NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 106 12 offspring offspring NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 106 13 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 106 14 fail fail VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 106 15 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 106 16 initiate initiate VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 106 17 an an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 106 18 epidemic epidemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 106 19 on on IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 106 20 arrival arrival NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 106 21 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 106 22 all all DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 106 23 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 106 24 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 106 25 chains chain NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 106 26 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 106 27 transmission transmission NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 106 28 they -PRON- PRP cord-048339-nzh87aux 106 29 initiate initiate VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 106 30 must must MD cord-048339-nzh87aux 106 31 fail fail VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 106 32 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 106 33 become become VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 106 34 large large JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 106 35 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 106 36 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 106 37 see see VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 106 38 Supporting Supporting NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 106 39 Information Information NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 106 40 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 106 41 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 107 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-048339-nzh87aux 107 2 calculate calculate VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 107 3 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 107 4 probability probability NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 107 5 distribution distribution NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 107 6 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 107 7 D D NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 107 8 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 107 9 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 107 10 total total JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 107 11 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 107 12 until until IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 107 13 an an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 107 14 epidemic epidemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 107 15 gathers gather VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 107 16 momentum momentum NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 107 17 by by IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 107 18 noting note VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 107 19 that that IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 107 20 it -PRON- PRP cord-048339-nzh87aux 107 21 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 107 22 given give VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 107 23 by by IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 107 24 D d NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 107 25 = = SYM cord-048339-nzh87aux 107 26 D d NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 107 27 1 1 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 107 28 + + CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 107 29 D d NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 107 30 2 2 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 107 31 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 107 32 where where WRB cord-048339-nzh87aux 107 33 D D NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 107 34 1 1 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 107 35 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 107 36 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 107 37 time time NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 107 38 until until IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 107 39 an an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 107 40 epidemic epidemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 107 41 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 107 42 first first RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 107 43 initiated initiate VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 107 44 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 107 45 D D NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 107 46 2 2 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 107 47 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 107 48 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 107 49 time time NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 107 50 from from IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 107 51 initiation initiation NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 107 52 until until IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 107 53 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 107 54 local local JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 107 55 epidemic epidemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 107 56 gathers gather VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 107 57 momentum momentum NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 107 58 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 108 1 For for IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 108 2 an an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 108 3 epidemic epidemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 108 4 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 108 5 be be VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 108 6 first first RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 108 7 initiated initiate VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 108 8 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 108 9 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 108 10 at at IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 108 11 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 108 12 risk risk NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 108 13 country country NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 108 14 on on IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 108 15 day day NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 108 16 d d NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 108 17 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 108 18 it -PRON- PRP cord-048339-nzh87aux 108 19 must must MD cord-048339-nzh87aux 108 20 have have VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 108 21 not not RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 108 22 been be VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 108 23 initiated initiate VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 108 24 on on IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 108 25 all all DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 108 26 previous previous JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 108 27 days day NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 108 28 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 109 1 Hence hence RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 109 2 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 109 3 probability probability NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 109 4 distribution distribution NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 109 5 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 109 6 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 109 7 time time NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 109 8 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 109 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 109 10 D D NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 109 11 1 1 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 109 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 109 13 until until IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 109 14 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 109 15 epidemic epidemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 109 16 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 109 17 first first RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 109 18 initiated initiate VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 109 19 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 109 20 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 109 21 at at IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 109 22 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 109 23 risk risk NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 109 24 country country NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 109 25 following follow VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 109 26 identification identification NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 109 27 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 109 28 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 109 29 source source NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 109 30 region region NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 109 31 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 109 32 described describe VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 109 33 by by IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 109 34 : : : cord-048339-nzh87aux 109 35 Pr Pr NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 109 36 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 109 37 D D NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 109 38 1~d 1~d CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 109 39 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 110 1 ~ ~ NFP cord-048339-nzh87aux 110 2 p p NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 110 3 p p NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 110 4 1 1 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 110 5 p p NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 110 6 p p NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 110 7 2 2 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 110 8 p p NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 110 9 p p NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 110 10 3 3 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 110 11 : : : cord-048339-nzh87aux 110 12 : : : cord-048339-nzh87aux 110 13 : : : cord-048339-nzh87aux 111 1 p p NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 111 2 p p NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 111 3 d{1 d{1 NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 111 4 p p NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 111 5 d d NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 111 6 where where WRB cord-048339-nzh87aux 111 7 p p NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 111 8 d d NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 111 9 denotes denote VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 111 10 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 111 11 probability probability NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 111 12 that that IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 111 13 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 111 14 epidemic epidemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 111 15 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 111 16 initiated initiate VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 111 17 on on IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 111 18 day day NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 111 19 d d NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 111 20 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 111 21 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 111 22 p p NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 111 23 p p NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 111 24 d~1 d~1 NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 112 1 { { -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 112 2 p p NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 112 3 d d NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 112 4 denotes denote VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 112 5 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 112 6 probability probability NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 112 7 that that IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 112 8 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 112 9 epidemic epidemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 112 10 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 112 11 not not RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 112 12 initiated initiate VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 112 13 on on IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 112 14 day day NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 112 15 d d NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 112 16 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 112 17 see see VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 112 18 Supporting support VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 112 19 Information information NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 112 20 for for IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 112 21 calculation calculation NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 112 22 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 112 23 p p NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 112 24 d d NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 112 25 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 112 26 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 113 1 Once once RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 113 2 successfully successfully RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 113 3 initiated initiate VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 113 4 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 113 5 an an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 113 6 epidemic epidemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 113 7 may may MD cord-048339-nzh87aux 113 8 initially initially RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 113 9 hover hover VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 113 10 around around IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 113 11 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 113 12 handful handful NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 113 13 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 113 14 cases case NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 113 15 before before IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 113 16 reaching reach VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 113 17 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 113 18 sufficient sufficient JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 113 19 number number NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 113 20 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 113 21 cases case NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 113 22 for for IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 113 23 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-048339-nzh87aux 113 24 growth growth NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 113 25 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 113 26 become become VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 113 27 essentially essentially RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 113 28 predictable predictable JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 113 29 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 114 1 As as IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 114 2 mentioned mention VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 114 3 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 114 4 20 20 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 114 5 concurrent concurrent JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 114 6 cases case NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 114 7 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 114 8 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-048339-nzh87aux 114 9 criterion criterion NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 114 10 for for IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 114 11 an an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 114 12 epidemic epidemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 114 13 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 114 14 have have VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 114 15 gathered gather VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 114 16 momentum momentum NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 114 17 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 115 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-048339-nzh87aux 115 2 determine determine VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 115 3 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 115 4 distribution distribution NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 115 5 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 115 6 D D NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 115 7 2 2 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 115 8 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 115 9 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 115 10 time time NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 115 11 to to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 115 12 this this DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 115 13 occurrence occurrence NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 115 14 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 115 15 from from IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 115 16 10,000 10,000 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 115 17 stochastic stochastic JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 115 18 simulations simulation NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 115 19 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 115 20 approximate approximate VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 115 21 this this DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 115 22 empirical empirical JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 115 23 distribution distribution NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 115 24 by by IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 115 25 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 115 26 shifted shift VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 115 27 gamma gamma NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 115 28 distribution distribution NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 115 29 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 1 Our -PRON- PRP$ cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 2 criterion criterion NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 3 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 4 20 20 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 5 concurrent concurrent JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 6 cases case NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 7 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 8 conservatively conservatively RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 9 high high JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 10 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 11 as as IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 12 results result NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 13 from from IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 14 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 15 theory theory NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 16 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 17 branching branch VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 18 processes process NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 19 shows show VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 20 that that IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 21 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 22 probability probability NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 23 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 24 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 25 minor minor JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 26 epidemic epidemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 27 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 28 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 29 hence hence RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 30 no no DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 31 take take VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 32 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 33 off off NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 34 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 35 starting start VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 36 from from IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 37 20 20 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 38 concurrent concurrent JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 39 cases case NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 40 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 41 about about RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 42 3610 3610 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 43 28 28 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 44 when when WRB cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 45 R r NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 46 = = SYM cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 47 1.5 1.5 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 48 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 49 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 50 even even RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 51 smaller small JJR cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 52 for for IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 53 higher high JJR cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 54 values value NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 55 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 56 R. R. NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 57 Finally finally RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 58 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 59 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 60 distribution distribution NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 61 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 62 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 63 total total JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 64 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 65 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 66 D d NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 67 = = SYM cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 68 D d NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 69 1 1 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 70 + + CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 71 D d NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 72 2 2 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 73 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 74 from from IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 75 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 76 pandemic pandemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 77 being be VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 78 identified identify VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 79 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 80 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 81 source source NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 82 region region NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 83 until until IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 84 20 20 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 85 cases case NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 86 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 87 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 88 at at IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 89 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 90 risk risk NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 91 country country NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 92 was be VBD cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 93 calculated calculate VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 94 by by IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 95 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 96 convolution convolution NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 97 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 98 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 99 distributions distribution NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 100 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 101 D D NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 102 1 1 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 103 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 104 D D NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 105 2 2 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 116 106 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 117 1 For for IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 117 2 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 117 3 illustrative illustrative JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 117 4 purposes purpose NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 117 5 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 117 6 we -PRON- PRP cord-048339-nzh87aux 117 7 chose choose VBD cord-048339-nzh87aux 117 8 values value NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 117 9 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 117 10 1.5 1.5 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 117 11 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 117 12 2.5 2.5 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 117 13 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 117 14 3.5 3.5 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 117 15 for for IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 117 16 R r NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 117 17 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 117 18 which which WDT cord-048339-nzh87aux 117 19 encompass encompass VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 117 20 estimates estimate NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 117 21 proposed propose VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 117 22 for for IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 117 23 previous previous JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 117 24 pandemics pandemic NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 117 25 [ [ -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 117 26 2 2 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 117 27 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 117 28 3 3 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 117 29 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 117 30 15 15 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 117 31 ] ] -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 117 32 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 118 1 The the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 118 2 number number NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 118 3 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 118 4 people people NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 118 5 within within IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 118 6 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 118 7 infected infected JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 118 8 source source NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 118 9 region region NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 118 10 was be VBD cord-048339-nzh87aux 118 11 assumed assume VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 118 12 reasonably reasonably RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 118 13 small small JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 118 14 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 118 15 5 5 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 118 16 million million CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 118 17 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 118 18 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 118 19 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 118 20 there there EX cord-048339-nzh87aux 118 21 was be VBD cord-048339-nzh87aux 118 22 one one CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 118 23 flight flight NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 118 24 per per IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 118 25 day day NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 118 26 traveling travel VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 118 27 from from IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 118 28 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 118 29 source source NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 118 30 region region NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 118 31 to to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 118 32 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 118 33 at at IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 118 34 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 118 35 risk risk NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 118 36 country country NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 118 37 carrying carry VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 118 38 400 400 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 118 39 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 118 40 100 100 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 118 41 or or CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 118 42 10 10 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 118 43 passengers passenger NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 118 44 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 119 1 A a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 119 2 higher high JJR cord-048339-nzh87aux 119 3 number number NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 119 4 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 119 5 travelers traveler NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 119 6 affects affect VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 119 7 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 119 8 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 119 9 only only RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 119 10 marginally marginally RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 119 11 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 119 12 assuming assume VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 119 13 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 119 14 epidemic epidemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 119 15 takes take VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 119 16 off off RP cord-048339-nzh87aux 119 17 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 119 18 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 119 19 source source NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 119 20 region region NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 119 21 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 119 22 see see VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 119 23 Results result NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 119 24 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 119 25 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 120 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-048339-nzh87aux 120 2 assume assume VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 120 3 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 120 4 typical typical JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 120 5 travel travel NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 120 6 duration duration NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 120 7 between between IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 120 8 attempted attempt VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 120 9 departure departure NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 120 10 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 120 11 possible possible JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 120 12 arrival arrival NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 120 13 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 120 14 12 12 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 120 15 hours hour NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 120 16 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 120 17 but but CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 120 18 also also RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 120 19 examine examine VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 120 20 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 120 21 effect effect NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 120 22 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 120 23 varying vary VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 120 24 this this DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 120 25 from from IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 120 26 0 0 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 120 27 - - SYM cord-048339-nzh87aux 120 28 48 48 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 120 29 hours hour NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 120 30 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 121 1 The the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 121 2 time time NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 121 3 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 121 4 presentation presentation NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 121 5 following follow VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 121 6 symptom symptom NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 121 7 onset onset NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 121 8 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 121 9 varied varied JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 121 10 from from IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 121 11 ' ' '' cord-048339-nzh87aux 121 12 immediately immediately RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 121 13 ' ' '' cord-048339-nzh87aux 121 14 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 121 15 ' ' '' cord-048339-nzh87aux 121 16 never never RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 121 17 presenting present VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 121 18 ' ' '' cord-048339-nzh87aux 121 19 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 121 20 with with IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 121 21 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 121 22 time time NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 121 23 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 121 24 6 6 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 121 25 hours hour NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 121 26 considered consider VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 121 27 likely likely JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 121 28 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 121 29 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 121 30 presence presence NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 121 31 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 121 32 an an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 121 33 education education NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 121 34 campaign campaign NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 121 35 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 122 1 The the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 122 2 sensitivity sensitivity NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 122 3 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 122 4 symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 122 5 screening screening NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 122 6 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 122 7 varied varied JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 122 8 from from IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 122 9 0 0 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 122 10 - - SYM cord-048339-nzh87aux 122 11 100 100 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 122 12 % % NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 122 13 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 122 14 with with IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 122 15 results result NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 122 16 presented present VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 122 17 for for IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 122 18 0 0 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 122 19 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 122 20 50 50 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 122 21 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 122 22 100 100 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 122 23 % % NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 122 24 sensitivity sensitivity NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 122 25 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 123 1 The the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 123 2 probability probability NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 123 3 that that IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 123 4 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 123 5 recently recently RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 123 6 infected infect VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 123 7 traveler traveler NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 123 8 evades evade VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 123 9 screening screening NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 123 10 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 123 11 substantial substantial JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 123 12 even even RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 123 13 if if IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 123 14 screening screening NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 123 15 reliably reliably RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 123 16 detects detect VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 123 17 symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 123 18 travelers traveler NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 123 19 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 123 20 Figure figure NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 123 21 2A 2a CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 123 22 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 123 23 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 123 24 because because IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 123 25 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 123 26 typical typical JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 123 27 travel travel NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 123 28 duration duration NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 123 29 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 123 30 shorter short JJR cord-048339-nzh87aux 123 31 than than IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 123 32 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 123 33 2-day 2-day JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 123 34 incubation incubation NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 123 35 period period NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 123 36 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 124 1 In in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 124 2 addition addition NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 124 3 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 124 4 during during IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 124 5 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 124 6 early early JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 124 7 stages stage NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 124 8 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 124 9 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 124 10 epidemic epidemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 124 11 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 124 12 high high JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 124 13 R r NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 124 14 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 124 15 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 124 16 source source NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 124 17 region region NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 124 18 acts act VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 124 19 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 124 20 increase increase VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 124 21 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 124 22 probability probability NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 124 23 that that IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 124 24 an an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 124 25 infected infected JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 124 26 traveler traveler NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 124 27 has have VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 124 28 been be VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 124 29 infected infect VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 124 30 quite quite RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 124 31 recently recently RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 124 32 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 124 33 hence hence RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 124 34 will will MD cord-048339-nzh87aux 124 35 escape escape VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 124 36 detection detection NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 124 37 due due IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 124 38 to to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 124 39 being be VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 124 40 asymptomatic asymptomatic JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 124 41 during during IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 124 42 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-048339-nzh87aux 124 43 travels travel NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 124 44 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 124 45 Figure figure NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 124 46 2A 2a CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 124 47 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 124 48 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 125 1 For for IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 125 2 example example NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 125 3 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 125 4 assuming assume VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 125 5 100 100 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 125 6 % % NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 125 7 sensitivity sensitivity NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 125 8 for for IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 125 9 detecting detect VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 125 10 symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 125 11 infection infection NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 125 12 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 125 13 we -PRON- PRP cord-048339-nzh87aux 125 14 calculate calculate VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 125 15 that that IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 125 16 during during IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 125 17 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 125 18 early early JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 125 19 stages stage NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 125 20 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 125 21 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 125 22 epidemic epidemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 125 23 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 125 24 proportion proportion NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 125 25 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 125 26 infected infected JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 125 27 travelers traveler NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 125 28 that that WDT cord-048339-nzh87aux 125 29 evade evade VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 125 30 both both DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 125 31 departure departure NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 125 32 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 125 33 arrival arrival NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 125 34 screening screening NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 125 35 after after IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 125 36 12 12 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 125 37 hours hour NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 125 38 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 125 39 travel travel NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 125 40 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 125 41 0.26 0.26 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 125 42 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 125 43 0.45 0.45 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 125 44 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 125 45 0.59 0.59 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 125 46 for for IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 125 47 disease disease NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 125 48 reproduction reproduction NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 125 49 numbers number NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 125 50 1.5 1.5 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 125 51 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 125 52 2.5 2.5 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 125 53 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 125 54 3.5 3.5 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 125 55 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 125 56 respectively respectively RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 125 57 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 126 1 As as IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 126 2 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 126 3 duration duration NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 126 4 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 126 5 travel travel NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 126 6 approaches approach VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 126 7 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 126 8 disease disease NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 126 9 incubation incubation NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 126 10 period period NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 126 11 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 126 12 effective effective JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 126 13 symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 126 14 screening screening NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 126 15 substantially substantially RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 126 16 reduces reduce VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 126 17 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 126 18 likelihood likelihood NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 126 19 that that IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 126 20 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 126 21 traveler traveler NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 126 22 evades evade VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 126 23 screening screening NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 126 24 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 126 25 initiates initiate VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 126 26 an an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 126 27 epidemic epidemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 126 28 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 126 29 Figure figure NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 126 30 2B 2b CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 126 31 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 126 32 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 1 Reducing reduce VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 2 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 3 time time NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 4 from from IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 5 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 6 onset onset NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 7 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 8 symptoms symptom NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 9 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 10 presentation presentation NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 11 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 12 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 13 subsequent subsequent JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 14 isolation isolation NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 15 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 16 for for IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 17 each each DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 18 infected infect VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 19 arrival arrival NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 20 also also RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 21 reduces reduce VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 22 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 23 probability probability NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 24 that that IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 25 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 26 major major JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 27 epidemic epidemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 28 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 29 initiated initiate VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 30 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 31 however however RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 32 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 33 best good JJS cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 34 case case NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 35 scenario scenario NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 36 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 37 infected infected JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 38 travelers traveler NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 39 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 40 all all PDT cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 41 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 42 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 43 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 44 flight flight NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 45 offspring offspring NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 46 presenting present VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 47 immediately immediately RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 48 following follow VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 49 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 50 onset onset NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 51 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 52 symptoms symptom NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 53 still still RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 54 poses pose VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 55 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 56 substantial substantial JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 57 risk risk NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 58 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 59 epidemic epidemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 60 initiation initiation NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 61 arising arise VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 62 from from IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 63 pre pre JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 64 - - JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 65 symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 66 transmission transmission NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 67 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 68 Figure figure NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 69 1C 1c NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 70 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 127 71 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 1 The the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 2 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 3 contains contain VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 4 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 5 fairly fairly RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 6 substantial substantial JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 7 natural natural JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 8 component component NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 9 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 10 primarily primarily RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 11 due due IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 12 to to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 13 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 14 time time NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 15 it -PRON- PRP cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 16 takes take VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 17 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 18 increase increase VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 19 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 20 number number NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 21 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 22 infectives infective NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 23 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 24 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 25 source source NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 26 region region NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 27 sufficiently sufficiently RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 28 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 29 make make VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 30 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 31 chance chance NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 32 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 33 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 34 recently recently RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 35 infected infect VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 36 traveler traveler NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 37 appreciable appreciable JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 38 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 39 Figure figure NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 40 3A 3a CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 41 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 42 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 43 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 44 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 45 time time NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 46 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 47 D D NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 48 2 2 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 49 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 50 it -PRON- PRP cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 51 takes take VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 52 for for IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 53 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 54 local local JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 55 epidemic epidemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 56 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 57 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 58 at at IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 59 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 60 risk risk NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 61 country country NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 62 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 63 gather gather VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 64 momentum momentum NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 65 following follow VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 66 successful successful JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 67 seeding seeding NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 68 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 69 Figure figure NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 70 4A 4a CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 71 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 128 72 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 129 1 In in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 129 2 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 129 3 absence absence NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 129 4 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 129 5 any any DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 129 6 interventions intervention NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 129 7 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 129 8 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 129 9 number number NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 129 10 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 129 11 infected infected JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 129 12 individuals individual NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 129 13 who who WP cord-048339-nzh87aux 129 14 successfully successfully RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 129 15 enter enter VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 129 16 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 129 17 community community NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 129 18 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 129 19 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 129 20 at at IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 129 21 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 129 22 risk risk NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 129 23 country country NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 129 24 initially initially RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 129 25 increases increase VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 129 26 exponentially exponentially RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 129 27 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 129 28 Figure figure NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 129 29 3A 3a CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 129 30 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 129 31 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 130 1 With with IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 130 2 individual individual NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 130 3 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 130 4 based base VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 130 5 removal removal NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 130 6 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 130 7 infected infected JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 130 8 travelers traveler NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 130 9 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 130 10 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 130 11 number number NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 130 12 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 130 13 individuals individual NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 130 14 entering enter VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 130 15 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 130 16 at at IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 130 17 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 130 18 risk risk NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 130 19 country country NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 130 20 undetected undetecte VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 130 21 by by IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 130 22 screening screening NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 130 23 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 130 24 proportionately proportionately RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 130 25 reduced reduce VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 130 26 over over IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 130 27 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 130 28 course course NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 130 29 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 130 30 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 130 31 epidemic epidemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 130 32 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 130 33 Figure figure NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 130 34 3A 3a CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 130 35 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 130 36 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 131 1 With with IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 131 2 flightbased flightbased JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 131 3 quarantining quarantining NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 131 4 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 131 5 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 131 6 number number NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 131 7 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 131 8 infected infected JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 131 9 individuals individual NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 131 10 entering enter VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 131 11 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 131 12 at at IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 131 13 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 131 14 risk risk NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 131 15 country country NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 131 16 undetected undetected JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 131 17 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 131 18 dramatically dramatically RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 131 19 reduced reduce VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 131 20 over over IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 131 21 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 131 22 course course NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 131 23 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 131 24 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 131 25 epidemic epidemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 131 26 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 131 27 even even RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 131 28 for for IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 131 29 relatively relatively RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 131 30 insensitive insensitive JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 131 31 screening screening NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 131 32 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 131 33 Figure figure NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 131 34 3A 3a CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 131 35 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 131 36 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 132 1 With with IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 132 2 flight flight NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 132 3 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 132 4 based base VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 132 5 quarantining quarantining NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 132 6 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 132 7 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 132 8 number number NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 132 9 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 132 10 infected infected JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 132 11 passengers passenger NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 132 12 slipping slip VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 132 13 through through IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 132 14 undetected undetected JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 132 15 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 132 16 bimodal bimodal JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 132 17 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 132 18 with with IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 132 19 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 132 20 first first JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 132 21 peak peak NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 132 22 occurring occur VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 132 23 when when WRB cord-048339-nzh87aux 132 24 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 132 25 number number NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 132 26 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 132 27 infected infected JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 132 28 travelers traveler NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 132 29 attempting attempt VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 132 30 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 132 31 travel travel VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 132 32 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 132 33 still still RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 132 34 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 132 35 single single JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 132 36 figures figure NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 132 37 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 133 1 Without without IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 133 2 screening screening NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 133 3 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 133 4 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 133 5 daily daily JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 133 6 probability probability NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 133 7 that that IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 133 8 an an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 133 9 epidemic epidemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 133 10 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 133 11 initiated initiate VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 133 12 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 133 13 p p NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 133 14 d d NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 133 15 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 133 16 increases increase NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 133 17 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 133 18 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 133 19 becomes become VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 134 1 near near IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 134 2 certain certain JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 134 3 once once IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 134 4 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 134 5 number number NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 134 6 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 134 7 infected infected JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 134 8 travelers traveler NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 134 9 arriving arrive VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 134 10 undetected undetected JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 134 11 exceeds exceed VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 134 12 about about RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 134 13 10 10 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 134 14 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 134 15 Figure figure NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 134 16 3B 3b NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 134 17 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 134 18 solid solid JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 134 19 line line NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 134 20 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 134 21 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 135 1 With with IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 135 2 screening screening NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 135 3 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 135 4 individual individual NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 135 5 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 135 6 based base VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 135 7 removal removal NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 135 8 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 135 9 infected infected JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 135 10 individuals individual NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 135 11 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 135 12 p p NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 135 13 d d NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 135 14 follows follow VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 135 15 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 135 16 similar similar JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 135 17 pattern pattern NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 135 18 only only RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 135 19 reduced reduce VBD cord-048339-nzh87aux 135 20 somewhat somewhat RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 135 21 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 136 1 With with IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 136 2 screening screening NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 136 3 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 136 4 combination combination NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 136 5 with with IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 136 6 flightbased flightbased JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 136 7 quarantining quarantining NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 136 8 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 136 9 this this DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 136 10 probability probability NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 136 11 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 136 12 changed change VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 136 13 dramatically dramatically RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 136 14 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 137 1 After after IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 137 2 an an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 137 3 initial initial JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 137 4 rise rise NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 137 5 it -PRON- PRP cord-048339-nzh87aux 137 6 dips dip VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 137 7 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 137 8 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 137 9 become become VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 137 10 essentially essentially RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 137 11 zero zero CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 137 12 during during IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 137 13 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 137 14 height height NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 137 15 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 137 16 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 137 17 epidemic epidemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 137 18 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 137 19 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 137 20 source source NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 137 21 region region NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 137 22 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 137 23 Figure figure NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 137 24 3B 3b NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 137 25 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 137 26 dotted dotted JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 137 27 line line NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 137 28 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 137 29 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 138 1 This this DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 138 2 arises arise VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 138 3 because because IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 138 4 once once IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 138 5 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 138 6 flight flight NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 138 7 has have VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 138 8 several several JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 138 9 infected infected JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 138 10 travelers traveler NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 138 11 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 138 12 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 138 13 probability probability NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 138 14 that that IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 138 15 at at RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 138 16 least least JJS cord-048339-nzh87aux 138 17 one one CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 138 18 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 138 19 detected detect VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 138 20 approaches approach NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 138 21 one one CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 138 22 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 138 23 even even RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 138 24 if if IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 138 25 screening screening NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 138 26 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 138 27 imperfect imperfect JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 138 28 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 138 29 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 138 30 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 138 31 all all DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 138 32 passengers passenger NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 138 33 on on IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 138 34 such such PDT cord-048339-nzh87aux 138 35 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 138 36 flight flight NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 138 37 are be VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 138 38 quarantined quarantine VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 138 39 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 139 1 Once once RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 139 2 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 139 3 epidemic epidemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 139 4 starts start VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 139 5 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 139 6 wane wane VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 139 7 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 139 8 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 139 9 source source NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 139 10 region region NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 139 11 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 139 12 assuming assume VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 139 13 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 139 14 unlikely unlikely JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 139 15 event event NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 139 16 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 139 17 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 139 18 pandemic pandemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 139 19 strain strain NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 139 20 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 139 21 restricted restrict VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 139 22 to to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 139 23 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 139 24 source source NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 139 25 region region NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 139 26 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 139 27 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 139 28 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 139 29 probability probability NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 139 30 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 139 31 initiation initiation NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 139 32 rises rise VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 139 33 once once RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 139 34 again again RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 139 35 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 140 1 The the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 140 2 corresponding corresponding JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 140 3 distribution distribution NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 140 4 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 140 5 D D NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 140 6 1 1 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 140 7 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 140 8 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 140 9 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 140 10 until until IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 140 11 The the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 140 12 effects effect NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 140 13 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 140 14 R r NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 140 15 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 140 16 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 140 17 time time NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 140 18 from from IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 140 19 symptom symptom NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 140 20 onset onset NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 140 21 to to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 140 22 presentation presentation NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 140 23 on on IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 140 24 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 140 25 probability probability NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 140 26 that that IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 140 27 an an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 140 28 infected infected JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 140 29 traveler traveler NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 140 30 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 140 31 having have VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 140 32 entered enter VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 140 33 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 140 34 wider wide JJR cord-048339-nzh87aux 140 35 community community NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 140 36 following follow VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 140 37 arrival arrival NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 140 38 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 140 39 will will MD cord-048339-nzh87aux 140 40 initiate initiate VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 140 41 an an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 140 42 epidemic epidemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 140 43 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 141 1 There there EX cord-048339-nzh87aux 141 2 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 141 3 no no DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 141 4 screening screening NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 141 5 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 142 1 doi:10.1371 doi:10.1371 NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 143 1 /journal.pone.0000143.g002 /journal.pone.0000143.g002 NFP cord-048339-nzh87aux 143 2 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 143 3 epidemic epidemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 143 4 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 143 5 first first RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 143 6 initiated initiate VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 143 7 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 143 8 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 143 9 at at IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 143 10 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 143 11 risk risk NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 143 12 country country NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 143 13 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 143 14 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 143 15 bi bi JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 143 16 - - JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 143 17 modal modal JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 143 18 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 143 19 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 143 20 presence presence NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 143 21 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 143 22 screening screen VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 143 23 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 143 24 Figure Figure NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 143 25 3C 3c NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 143 26 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 143 27 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 144 1 Although although IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 144 2 flight flight NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 144 3 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 144 4 based base VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 144 5 quarantining quarantining NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 144 6 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 144 7 effective effective JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 144 8 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 144 9 preventing prevent VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 144 10 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 144 11 entry entry NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 144 12 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 144 13 infected infected JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 144 14 travelers traveler NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 144 15 during during IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 144 16 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 144 17 height height NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 144 18 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 144 19 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 144 20 epidemic epidemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 144 21 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 144 22 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 144 23 substantial substantial JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 144 24 cumulative cumulative JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 144 25 risk risk NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 144 26 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 144 27 initiation initiation NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 144 28 has have VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 144 29 already already RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 144 30 occurred occur VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 144 31 before before IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 144 32 this this DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 144 33 from from IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 144 34 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 144 35 handful handful NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 144 36 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 144 37 infectives infective NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 144 38 that that WDT cord-048339-nzh87aux 144 39 have have VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 144 40 slipped slip VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 144 41 through through IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 144 42 undetected undetected JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 144 43 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 144 44 Figure figure NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 144 45 3B 3b CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 144 46 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 144 47 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 145 1 Hence hence RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 145 2 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 145 3 whilst whilst IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 145 4 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 145 5 effect effect NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 145 6 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 145 7 border border NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 145 8 screening screening NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 145 9 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 145 10 particularly particularly RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 145 11 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 145 12 conjunction conjunction NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 145 13 with with IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 145 14 flight flight NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 145 15 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 145 16 based base VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 145 17 quarantining quarantining NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 145 18 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 145 19 on on IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 145 20 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 145 21 daily daily JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 145 22 probability probability NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 145 23 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 145 24 initiation initiation NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 145 25 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 145 26 dramatic dramatic JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 145 27 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 145 28 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-048339-nzh87aux 145 29 effect effect NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 145 30 on on IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 145 31 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 145 32 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 145 33 to to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 145 34 initiation initiation NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 145 35 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 145 36 much much RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 145 37 less less RBR cord-048339-nzh87aux 145 38 pronounced pronounced JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 145 39 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 145 40 Figure Figure NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 145 41 3C 3c NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 145 42 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 145 43 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 146 1 Border border NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 146 2 screening screening NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 146 3 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 146 4 even even RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 146 5 with with IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 146 6 perfect perfect JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 146 7 sensitivity sensitivity NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 146 8 for for IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 146 9 detecting detect VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 146 10 symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 146 11 cases case NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 146 12 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 146 13 tends tend VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 146 14 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 146 15 increase increase VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 146 16 D D NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 146 17 1 1 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 146 18 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 146 19 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 146 20 time time NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 146 21 to to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 146 22 an an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 146 23 epidemic epidemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 146 24 being be VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 146 25 initiated initiate VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 146 26 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 146 27 by by IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 146 28 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 146 29 matter matter NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 146 30 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 146 31 days day NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 146 32 to to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 146 33 weeks week NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 146 34 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 147 1 The the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 147 2 time time NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 147 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 147 4 D D NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 147 5 2 2 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 147 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 147 7 from from IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 147 8 initiation initiation NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 147 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 147 10 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 147 11 arrival arrival NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 147 12 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 147 13 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 147 14 index index NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 147 15 case case NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 147 16 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 147 17 to to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 147 18 an an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 147 19 epidemic epidemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 147 20 reaching reach VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 147 21 20 20 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 147 22 concurrent concurrent JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 147 23 cases case NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 147 24 within within IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 147 25 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 147 26 at at IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 147 27 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 147 28 risk risk NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 147 29 country country NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 147 30 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 147 31 adequately adequately RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 147 32 modeled model VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 147 33 using use VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 147 34 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 147 35 shifted shift VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 147 36 Gamma Gamma NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 147 37 distribution distribution NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 147 38 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 147 39 Figure figure NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 147 40 4A 4a CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 147 41 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 147 42 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 148 1 The the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 148 2 convolution convolution NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 148 3 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 148 4 this this DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 148 5 right right RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 148 6 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 148 7 skewed skewed JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 148 8 Gamma gamma NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 148 9 distribution distribution NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 148 10 with with IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 148 11 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 148 12 left left RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 148 13 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 148 14 skewed skewed JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 148 15 delaydistribution delaydistribution NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 148 16 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 148 17 D D NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 148 18 1 1 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 148 19 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 148 20 Figure figure NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 148 21 3C 3c NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 148 22 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 148 23 yields yield VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 148 24 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 148 25 distribution distribution NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 148 26 for for IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 148 27 D D NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 148 28 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 148 29 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 148 30 total total JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 148 31 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 148 32 until until IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 148 33 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 148 34 epidemic epidemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 148 35 reaches reach VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 148 36 20 20 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 148 37 cases case NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 148 38 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 148 39 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 148 40 at at IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 148 41 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 148 42 risk risk NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 148 43 country country NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 148 44 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 148 45 Figure figure NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 148 46 4B 4b CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 148 47 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 148 48 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 149 1 The the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 149 2 distribution distribution NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 149 3 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 149 4 D D NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 149 5 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 149 6 approximately approximately RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 149 7 symmetrical symmetrical JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 149 8 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 150 1 The the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 150 2 effect effect NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 150 3 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 150 4 border border NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 150 5 screening screening NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 150 6 on on IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 150 7 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 150 8 total total JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 150 9 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 150 10 D d NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 150 11 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 150 12 quite quite RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 150 13 modest modest JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 150 14 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 150 15 though though IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 150 16 sensitive sensitive JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 150 17 to to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 150 18 how how WRB cord-048339-nzh87aux 150 19 screening screening NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 150 20 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 150 21 implemented implement VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 150 22 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 151 1 For for IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 151 2 example example NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 151 3 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 151 4 with with IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 151 5 R r NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 151 6 = = SYM cord-048339-nzh87aux 151 7 1.5 1.5 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 151 8 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 151 9 400 400 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 151 10 travelers traveler NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 151 11 per per IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 151 12 day day NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 151 13 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 151 14 100 100 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 151 15 % % NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 151 16 sensitive sensitive JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 151 17 screening screening NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 151 18 with with IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 151 19 individual individual NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 151 20 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 151 21 based base VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 151 22 removal removal NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 151 23 increases increase VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 151 24 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 151 25 median median JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 151 26 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 151 27 from from IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 151 28 57 57 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 151 29 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 151 30 60 60 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 151 31 days day NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 151 32 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 151 33 Figure figure NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 151 34 4B 4b NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 151 35 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 151 36 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 152 1 Flight flight NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 152 2 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 152 3 based base VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 152 4 quarantining quarantining NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 152 5 would would MD cord-048339-nzh87aux 152 6 extend extend VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 152 7 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 152 8 median median JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 152 9 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 152 10 to to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 152 11 70 70 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 152 12 days day NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 152 13 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 153 1 In in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 153 2 general general JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 153 3 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 153 4 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 153 5 added add VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 153 6 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 153 7 arising arise VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 153 8 from from IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 153 9 flight flight NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 153 10 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 153 11 based base VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 153 12 quarantining quarantining NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 153 13 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 153 14 about about RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 153 15 four four CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 153 16 - - RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 153 17 fold fold RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 153 18 that that IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 153 19 arising arise VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 153 20 from from IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 153 21 individual individual NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 153 22 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 153 23 based base VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 153 24 removal removal NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 153 25 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 154 1 The the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 154 2 natural natural JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 154 3 component component NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 154 4 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 154 5 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 154 6 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 154 7 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 154 8 highly highly RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 154 9 sensitive sensitive JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 154 10 to to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 154 11 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 154 12 disease disease NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 154 13 reproduction reproduction NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 154 14 number number NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 154 15 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 154 16 Figure figure NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 154 17 5A 5a NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 154 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 154 19 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 155 1 For for IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 155 2 example example NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 155 3 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 155 4 with with IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 155 5 400 400 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 155 6 passengers passenger NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 155 7 per per IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 155 8 day day NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 155 9 departing depart VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 155 10 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 155 11 source source NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 155 12 country country NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 155 13 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 155 14 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 155 15 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 155 16 absence absence NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 155 17 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 155 18 any any DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 155 19 interventions intervention NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 155 20 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 155 21 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 155 22 median median JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 155 23 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 155 24 ranges range VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 155 25 from from IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 155 26 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 155 27 low low NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 155 28 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 155 29 17 17 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 155 30 days day NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 155 31 for for IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 155 32 R r NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 155 33 = = SYM cord-048339-nzh87aux 155 34 3.5 3.5 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 155 35 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 155 36 57 57 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 155 37 days day NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 155 38 for for IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 155 39 R r NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 155 40 = = SYM cord-048339-nzh87aux 155 41 1.5 1.5 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 155 42 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 155 43 Table table NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 155 44 1 1 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 155 45 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 155 46 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 156 1 The the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 156 2 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 156 3 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 156 4 less less RBR cord-048339-nzh87aux 156 5 sensitive sensitive JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 156 6 to to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 156 7 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 156 8 number number NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 156 9 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 156 10 intending intend VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 156 11 travelers traveler NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 156 12 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 156 13 with with IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 156 14 little little JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 156 15 appreciable appreciable JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 156 16 increase increase NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 156 17 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 156 18 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 156 19 median median JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 156 20 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 156 21 occurring occur VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 156 22 until until IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 156 23 traveler traveler NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 156 24 numbers number NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 156 25 become become VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 156 26 very very RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 156 27 low low JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 156 28 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 156 29 Figure figure NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 156 30 5B 5b NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 156 31 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 156 32 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 157 1 For for IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 157 2 example example NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 157 3 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 157 4 if if IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 157 5 R r NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 157 6 = = SYM cord-048339-nzh87aux 157 7 1.5 1.5 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 157 8 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 157 9 with with IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 157 10 no no DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 157 11 other other JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 157 12 border border NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 157 13 control control NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 157 14 measures measure NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 157 15 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 157 16 decreasing decrease VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 157 17 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 157 18 number number NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 157 19 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 157 20 intending intend VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 157 21 travelers traveler NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 157 22 departing depart VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 157 23 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 157 24 source source NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 157 25 region region NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 157 26 from from IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 157 27 400 400 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 157 28 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 157 29 100 100 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 157 30 per per IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 157 31 day day NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 157 32 increases increase VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 157 33 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 157 34 median median JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 157 35 total total JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 157 36 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 157 37 D d NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 157 38 from from IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 157 39 57 57 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 157 40 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 157 41 66 66 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 157 42 days day NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 157 43 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 158 1 A a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 158 2 further further JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 158 3 decrease decrease NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 158 4 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 158 5 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 158 6 number number NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 158 7 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 158 8 intending intend VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 158 9 travelers traveler NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 158 10 to to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 158 11 10 10 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 158 12 per per IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 158 13 day day NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 158 14 increases increase VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 158 15 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 158 16 median median JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 158 17 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 158 18 to to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 158 19 83 83 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 158 20 days day NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 158 21 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 158 22 Table table NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 158 23 1 1 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 158 24 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 158 25 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 159 1 The the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 159 2 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 159 3 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 159 4 quite quite RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 159 5 insensitive insensitive JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 159 6 to to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 159 7 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 159 8 rate rate NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 159 9 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 159 10 transmission transmission NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 159 11 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 159 12 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 159 13 flight flight NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 159 14 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 160 1 For for IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 160 2 example example NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 160 3 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 160 4 with with IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 160 5 R r NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 160 6 = = SYM cord-048339-nzh87aux 160 7 1.5 1.5 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 160 8 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 160 9 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 160 10 12-hour 12-hour CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 160 11 flight flight NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 160 12 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 160 13 400 400 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 160 14 travelers traveler NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 160 15 per per IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 160 16 day day NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 160 17 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 160 18 no no DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 160 19 other other JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 160 20 interventions intervention NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 160 21 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 160 22 preventing prevent VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 160 23 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 160 24 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 160 25 flight flight NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 160 26 transmission transmission NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 160 27 altogether altogether RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 160 28 increases increase VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 160 29 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 160 30 median median JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 160 31 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 160 32 from from IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 160 33 57 57 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 160 34 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 160 35 58 58 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 160 36 days day NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 160 37 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 161 1 Conversely conversely RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 161 2 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 161 3 doubling double VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 161 4 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 161 5 rate rate NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 161 6 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 161 7 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 161 8 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 161 9 flight flight NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 161 10 transmission transmission NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 161 11 reduces reduce VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 161 12 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 161 13 median median JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 161 14 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 161 15 from from IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 161 16 57 57 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 161 17 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 161 18 56 56 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 161 19 days day NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 161 20 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 162 1 A a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 162 2 10-fold 10-fold JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 162 3 increase increase NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 162 4 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 162 5 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 162 6 rate rate NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 162 7 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 162 8 transmission transmission NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 162 9 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 162 10 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 162 11 flight flight NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 162 12 only only RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 162 13 decreases decrease VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 162 14 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 162 15 median median JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 162 16 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 162 17 from from IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 162 18 57 57 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 162 19 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 162 20 53 53 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 162 21 days day NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 162 22 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 163 1 Encouraging encourage VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 163 2 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 163 3 early early JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 163 4 presentation presentation NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 163 5 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 163 6 cases case NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 163 7 among among IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 163 8 travelers traveler NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 163 9 following follow VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 163 10 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 163 11 onset onset NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 163 12 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 163 13 symptoms symptom NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 163 14 has have VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 163 15 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 163 16 limited limited JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 163 17 effect effect NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 163 18 on on IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 163 19 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 163 20 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 163 21 distribution distribution NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 163 22 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 163 23 Figure figure NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 163 24 5C 5c CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 163 25 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 163 26 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 164 1 For for IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 164 2 example example NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 164 3 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 164 4 for for IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 164 5 R r NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 164 6 = = SYM cord-048339-nzh87aux 164 7 1.5 1.5 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 164 8 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 164 9 400 400 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 164 10 intending intend VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 164 11 travelers traveler NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 164 12 per per IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 164 13 day day NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 164 14 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 164 15 no no DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 164 16 other other JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 164 17 interventions intervention NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 164 18 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 164 19 reducing reduce VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 164 20 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 164 21 time time NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 164 22 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 164 23 presentation presentation NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 164 24 from from IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 164 25 ' ' '' cord-048339-nzh87aux 164 26 never never RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 164 27 presenting present VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 164 28 ' ' '' cord-048339-nzh87aux 164 29 to to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 164 30 6 6 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 164 31 hours hour NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 164 32 increases increase VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 164 33 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 164 34 median median JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 164 35 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 164 36 from from IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 164 37 57 57 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 164 38 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 164 39 61 61 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 164 40 days day NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 164 41 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 165 1 Immediate immediate JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 165 2 presentation presentation NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 165 3 at at IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 165 4 symptom symptom NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 165 5 onset onset NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 165 6 only only RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 165 7 increases increase VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 165 8 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 165 9 median median NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 165 10 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 165 11 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 165 12 further further JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 165 13 day day NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 165 14 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 165 15 this this DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 165 16 scenario scenario NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 165 17 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 166 1 In in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 166 2 general general JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 166 3 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 166 4 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 166 5 additional additional JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 166 6 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 166 7 achieved achieve VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 166 8 by by IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 166 9 introducing introduce VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 166 10 nonpharmaceutical nonpharmaceutical JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 166 11 border border NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 166 12 control control NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 166 13 measures measure NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 166 14 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 166 15 generally generally RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 166 16 small small JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 166 17 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 166 18 comparison comparison NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 166 19 with with IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 166 20 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 166 21 natural natural JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 166 22 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 166 23 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 166 24 Figure figure NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 166 25 5D 5d CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 166 26 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 166 27 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 167 1 For for IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 167 2 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 167 3 scenario scenario NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 167 4 with with IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 167 5 R r NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 167 6 = = SYM cord-048339-nzh87aux 167 7 1.5 1.5 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 167 8 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 167 9 400 400 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 167 10 intending intend VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 167 11 travelers traveler NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 167 12 per per IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 167 13 day day NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 167 14 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 167 15 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 167 16 combination combination NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 167 17 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 167 18 100 100 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 167 19 % % NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 167 20 flight flight NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 167 21 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 167 22 based base VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 167 23 quarantining quarantining NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 167 24 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 167 25 100 100 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 167 26 % % NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 167 27 compliance compliance NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 167 28 with with IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 167 29 mask mask NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 167 30 wearing wear VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 167 31 during during IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 167 32 travel travel NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 167 33 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 167 34 immediate immediate JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 167 35 presentation presentation NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 167 36 at at IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 167 37 symptom symptom NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 167 38 onset onset NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 167 39 extends extend VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 167 40 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 167 41 estimated estimate VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 167 42 median median JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 167 43 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 167 44 from from IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 167 45 57 57 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 167 46 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 167 47 79 79 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 167 48 days day NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 167 49 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 167 50 Figure figure NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 167 51 5D 5d CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 167 52 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 167 53 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 168 1 This this DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 168 2 added add VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 168 3 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 168 4 diminishes diminish VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 168 5 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 168 6 absolute absolute JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 168 7 terms term NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 168 8 as as IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 168 9 R r NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 168 10 increases increase NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 168 11 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 169 1 For for IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 169 2 example example NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 169 3 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 169 4 if if IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 169 5 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 169 6 same same JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 169 7 interventions intervention NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 169 8 are be VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 169 9 applied apply VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 169 10 with with IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 169 11 R r NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 169 12 = = SYM cord-048339-nzh87aux 169 13 3.5 3.5 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 169 14 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 169 15 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 169 16 median median JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 169 17 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 169 18 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 169 19 extended extend VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 169 20 from from IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 169 21 17 17 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 169 22 to to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 169 23 just just RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 169 24 20 20 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 169 25 days day NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 169 26 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 169 27 Figure figure NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 169 28 5D 5d CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 169 29 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 169 30 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 170 1 The the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 170 2 one one CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 170 3 exception exception NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 170 4 to to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 170 5 this this DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 170 6 generalisation generalisation NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 170 7 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 170 8 when when WRB cord-048339-nzh87aux 170 9 travel travel NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 170 10 numbers number NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 170 11 are be VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 170 12 reduced reduce VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 170 13 dramatically dramatically RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 170 14 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 171 1 The the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 171 2 added add VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 171 3 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 171 4 achieved achieve VBD cord-048339-nzh87aux 171 5 when when WRB cord-048339-nzh87aux 171 6 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 171 7 drastic drastic JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 171 8 reduction reduction NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 171 9 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 171 10 travel travel NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 171 11 numbers number NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 171 12 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 171 13 combined combine VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 171 14 with with IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 171 15 other other JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 171 16 border border NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 171 17 control control NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 171 18 measures measure NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 171 19 appears appear VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 171 20 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 171 21 be be VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 171 22 greater great JJR cord-048339-nzh87aux 171 23 than than IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 171 24 adding add VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 171 25 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 171 26 delays delay NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 171 27 each each DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 171 28 achieves achieve VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 171 29 on on IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 171 30 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-048339-nzh87aux 171 31 own own JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 171 32 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 172 1 For for IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 172 2 example example NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 172 3 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 172 4 if if IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 172 5 R r NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 172 6 = = SYM cord-048339-nzh87aux 172 7 1.5 1.5 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 172 8 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 172 9 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 172 10 we -PRON- PRP cord-048339-nzh87aux 172 11 reduce reduce VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 172 12 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 172 13 number number NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 172 14 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 172 15 intending intend VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 172 16 travelers traveler NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 172 17 from from IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 172 18 400 400 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 172 19 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 172 20 10 10 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 172 21 per per IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 172 22 day day NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 172 23 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 172 24 implement implement VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 172 25 100 100 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 172 26 % % NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 172 27 flight flight NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 172 28 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 172 29 based base VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 172 30 quarantining quarantining NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 172 31 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 172 32 implement implement VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 172 33 compulsory compulsory JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 172 34 mask mask NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 172 35 wearing wear VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 172 36 during during IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 172 37 travel travel NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 172 38 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 172 39 presentation presentation NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 172 40 at at IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 172 41 6 6 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 172 42 hours hour NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 172 43 following follow VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 172 44 symptom symptom NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 172 45 onset onset NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 173 1 then then RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 173 2 there there EX cord-048339-nzh87aux 173 3 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 173 4 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 173 5 substantial substantial JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 173 6 probability probability NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 173 7 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 173 8 0.74 0.74 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 173 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 173 10 that that IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 173 11 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 173 12 pandemic pandemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 173 13 strain strain NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 173 14 will will MD cord-048339-nzh87aux 173 15 never never RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 173 16 be be VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 173 17 imported import VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 173 18 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 173 19 assuming assume VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 173 20 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 173 21 epidemic epidemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 173 22 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 173 23 confined confine VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 173 24 to to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 173 25 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 173 26 source source NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 173 27 country country NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 173 28 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 173 29 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 174 1 The the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 174 2 estimated estimate VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 174 3 quartile quartile NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 174 4 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 174 5 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 174 6 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 174 7 median median NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 174 8 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 174 9 this this DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 174 10 case case NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 174 11 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 174 12 undefined undefined JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 174 13 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 174 14 to to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 174 15 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 174 16 start start NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 174 17 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 174 18 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 174 19 major major JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 174 20 epidemic epidemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 174 21 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 174 22 an an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 174 23 at at IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 174 24 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 174 25 risk risk NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 174 26 country country NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 174 27 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 174 28 extended extend VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 174 29 from from IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 174 30 50 50 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 174 31 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 174 32 125 125 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 174 33 days day NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 174 34 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 175 1 Again again RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 175 2 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 175 3 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 175 4 added add VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 175 5 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 175 6 decreases decrease VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 175 7 rapidly rapidly RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 175 8 as as IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 175 9 R r NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 175 10 increases increase VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 175 11 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 175 12 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 175 13 if if IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 175 14 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 175 15 above above JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 175 16 interventions intervention NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 175 17 were be VBD cord-048339-nzh87aux 175 18 applied apply VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 175 19 with with IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 175 20 R r NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 175 21 = = SYM cord-048339-nzh87aux 175 22 3.5 3.5 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 175 23 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 175 24 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 175 25 estimated estimate VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 175 26 median median JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 175 27 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 175 28 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 175 29 extended extend VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 175 30 from from IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 175 31 17 17 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 175 32 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 175 33 26 26 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 175 34 days day NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 175 35 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 175 36 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 175 37 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 175 38 importation importation NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 175 39 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 175 40 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 175 41 epidemic epidemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 175 42 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 175 43 certain certain JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 175 44 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 175 45 Figure figure NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 175 46 5D 5d CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 175 47 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 175 48 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 176 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-048339-nzh87aux 176 2 have have VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 176 3 formulated formulate VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 176 4 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 176 5 model model NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 176 6 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 176 7 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 176 8 importation importation NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 176 9 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 176 10 an an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 176 11 infectious infectious JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 176 12 disease disease NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 176 13 from from IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 176 14 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 176 15 source source NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 176 16 region region NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 176 17 to to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 176 18 an an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 176 19 at at IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 176 20 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 176 21 risk risk NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 176 22 country country NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 176 23 that that WDT cord-048339-nzh87aux 176 24 permits permit VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 176 25 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 176 26 comprehensive comprehensive JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 176 27 analysis analysis NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 176 28 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 176 29 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 176 30 effect effect NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 176 31 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 176 32 border border NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 176 33 control control NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 176 34 measures measure NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 176 35 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 177 1 Our -PRON- PRP$ cord-048339-nzh87aux 177 2 results result NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 177 3 are be VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 177 4 most most RBS cord-048339-nzh87aux 177 5 relevant relevant JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 177 6 to to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 177 7 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 177 8 early early JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 177 9 stage stage NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 177 10 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 177 11 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 177 12 pandemic pandemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 177 13 when when WRB cord-048339-nzh87aux 177 14 most most JJS cord-048339-nzh87aux 177 15 cases case NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 177 16 are be VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 177 17 contained contain VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 177 18 within within IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 177 19 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 177 20 single single JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 177 21 source source NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 177 22 region region NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 177 23 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 178 1 Once once IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 178 2 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 178 3 pandemic pandemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 178 4 has have VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 178 5 spread spread VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 178 6 to to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 178 7 several several JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 178 8 countries country NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 178 9 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 178 10 models model NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 178 11 with with IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 178 12 greater great JJR cord-048339-nzh87aux 178 13 complexity complexity NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 178 14 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 178 15 ability ability NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 178 16 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 178 17 more more RBR cord-048339-nzh87aux 178 18 realistically realistically RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 178 19 model model VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 178 20 global global JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 178 21 mixing mix VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 178 22 patterns pattern NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 178 23 [ [ -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 178 24 6 6 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 178 25 ] ] -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 178 26 [ [ -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 178 27 7 7 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 178 28 ] ] -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 178 29 [ [ -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 178 30 8 8 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 178 31 ] ] -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 178 32 are be VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 178 33 required require VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 178 34 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 179 1 Our -PRON- PRP$ cord-048339-nzh87aux 179 2 model model NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 179 3 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 179 4 developed develop VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 179 5 with with IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 179 6 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 179 7 pandemic pandemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 179 8 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 179 9 strain strain NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 179 10 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 179 11 influenza influenza NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 179 12 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 179 13 mind mind NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 179 14 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 179 15 but but CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 179 16 could could MD cord-048339-nzh87aux 179 17 apply apply VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 179 18 to to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 179 19 any any DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 179 20 emerging emerge VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 179 21 infectious infectious JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 179 22 disease disease NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 179 23 that that WDT cord-048339-nzh87aux 179 24 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 179 25 transmitted transmit VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 179 26 from from IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 179 27 person person NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 179 28 to to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 179 29 person person NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 179 30 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 180 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-048339-nzh87aux 180 2 have have VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 180 3 assumed assume VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 180 4 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 180 5 Poisson Poisson NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 180 6 distribution distribution NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 180 7 for for IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 180 8 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 180 9 number number NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 180 10 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 180 11 secondary secondary JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 180 12 infections infection NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 180 13 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 180 14 which which WDT cord-048339-nzh87aux 180 15 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 180 16 natural natural JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 180 17 choice choice NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 180 18 when when WRB cord-048339-nzh87aux 180 19 each each DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 180 20 infected infect VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 180 21 individual individual NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 180 22 has have VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 180 23 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 180 24 same same JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 180 25 infectivity infectivity NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 180 26 profile profile NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 180 27 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 181 1 A a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 181 2 distribution distribution NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 181 3 with with IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 181 4 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 181 5 larger large JJR cord-048339-nzh87aux 181 6 variance variance NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 181 7 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 181 8 appropriate appropriate JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 181 9 when when WRB cord-048339-nzh87aux 181 10 individuals individual NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 181 11 vary vary VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 181 12 substantially substantially RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 181 13 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 181 14 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-048339-nzh87aux 181 15 infectiousness infectiousness NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 181 16 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 182 1 Our -PRON- PRP$ cord-048339-nzh87aux 182 2 results result NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 182 3 are be VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 182 4 conservative conservative JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 182 5 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 182 6 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 182 7 sense sense NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 182 8 that that IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 182 9 they -PRON- PRP cord-048339-nzh87aux 182 10 give give VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 182 11 an an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 182 12 upper upper JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 182 13 bound bind VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 182 14 for for IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 182 15 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 182 16 probability probability NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 182 17 that that IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 182 18 an an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 182 19 infected infected JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 182 20 traveler traveler NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 182 21 manages manage VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 182 22 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 182 23 initiate initiate VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 182 24 an an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 182 25 epidemic epidemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 182 26 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 182 27 compared compare VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 182 28 to to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 182 29 an an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 182 30 offspring offspring NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 182 31 distribution distribution NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 182 32 with with IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 182 33 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 182 34 greater great JJR cord-048339-nzh87aux 182 35 variance variance NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 182 36 but but CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 182 37 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 182 38 same same JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 182 39 reproduction reproduction NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 182 40 number number NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 182 41 [ [ -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 182 42 14 14 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 182 43 ] ] -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 182 44 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 183 1 The the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 183 2 nature nature NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 183 3 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 183 4 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 183 5 next next JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 183 6 pandemic pandemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 183 7 influenza influenza NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 183 8 virus virus NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 183 9 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 183 10 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 183 11 particularly particularly RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 183 12 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-048339-nzh87aux 183 13 reproduction reproduction NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 183 14 number number NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 183 15 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 183 16 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 183 17 uncertain uncertain JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 183 18 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 184 1 If if IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 184 2 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-048339-nzh87aux 184 3 reproduction reproduction NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 184 4 number number NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 184 5 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 184 6 low low JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 184 7 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 184 8 R,2.0 R,2.0 NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 184 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 184 10 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 184 11 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-048339-nzh87aux 184 12 results result NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 184 13 indicate indicate VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 184 14 that that IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 184 15 at at IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 184 16 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 184 17 risk risk NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 184 18 countries country NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 184 19 receiving receive VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 184 20 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 184 21 reasonably reasonably RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 184 22 small small JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 184 23 number number NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 184 24 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 184 25 travelers traveler NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 184 26 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 184 27 say say VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 184 28 400 400 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 184 29 per per IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 184 30 day day NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 184 31 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 184 32 from from IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 184 33 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 184 34 infected infected JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 184 35 source source NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 184 36 region region NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 184 37 can can MD cord-048339-nzh87aux 184 38 expect expect VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 184 39 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 184 40 natural natural JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 184 41 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 184 42 until until IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 184 43 importing import VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 184 44 an an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 184 45 epidemic epidemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 184 46 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 184 47 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 184 48 order order NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 184 49 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 184 50 2 2 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 184 51 months month NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 184 52 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 185 1 This this DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 185 2 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 185 3 quite quite RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 185 4 variable variable JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 185 5 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 185 6 under under IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 185 7 favourable favourable JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 185 8 conditions condition NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 185 9 it -PRON- PRP cord-048339-nzh87aux 185 10 could could MD cord-048339-nzh87aux 185 11 be be VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 185 12 4 4 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 185 13 months month NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 185 14 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 186 1 However however RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 186 2 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 186 3 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 186 4 natural natural JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 186 5 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 186 6 decreases decrease VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 186 7 rapidly rapidly RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 186 8 as as IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 186 9 R r NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 186 10 increases increase VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 186 11 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 187 1 The the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 187 2 additional additional JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 187 3 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 187 4 from from IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 187 5 isolating isolate VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 187 6 individuals individual NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 187 7 detected detect VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 187 8 by by IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 187 9 border border NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 187 10 screening screening NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 187 11 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 187 12 merely merely RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 187 13 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 187 14 few few JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 187 15 days day NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 187 16 under under IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 187 17 most most JJS cord-048339-nzh87aux 187 18 plausible plausible JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 187 19 scenarios scenario NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 187 20 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 187 21 even even RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 187 22 if if IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 187 23 both both DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 187 24 departure departure NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 187 25 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 187 26 arrival arrival NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 187 27 screening screening NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 187 28 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 187 29 introduced introduce VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 187 30 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 187 31 screening screening NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 187 32 detects detect VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 187 33 every every DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 187 34 symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 187 35 traveler traveler NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 187 36 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 188 1 While while IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 188 2 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 188 3 extra extra JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 188 4 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 188 5 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 188 6 more more JJR cord-048339-nzh87aux 188 7 than than IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 188 8 quadrupled quadruple VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 188 9 if if IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 188 10 flights flight NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 188 11 with with IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 188 12 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 188 13 detected detect VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 188 14 case(s case(s NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 188 15 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 188 16 are be VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 188 17 quarantined quarantine VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 188 18 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 188 19 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 188 20 effect effect NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 188 21 remains remain VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 188 22 modest modest JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 188 23 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 188 24 weeks week NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 188 25 at at IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 188 26 most most JJS cord-048339-nzh87aux 188 27 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 188 28 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 188 29 it -PRON- PRP cord-048339-nzh87aux 188 30 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 188 31 questionable questionable JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 188 32 whether whether IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 188 33 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 188 34 extra extra JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 188 35 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 188 36 achieved achieve VBD cord-048339-nzh87aux 188 37 warrants warrant NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 188 38 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 188 39 disruption disruption NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 188 40 created create VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 188 41 by by IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 188 42 such such PDT cord-048339-nzh87aux 188 43 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 188 44 large large JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 188 45 number number NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 188 46 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 188 47 quarantined quarantine VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 188 48 passengers passenger NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 188 49 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 189 1 In in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 189 2 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 189 3 flight flight NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 189 4 transmission transmission NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 189 5 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 189 6 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 189 7 commonly commonly RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 189 8 raised raise VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 189 9 concern concern NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 189 10 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 189 11 discussions discussion NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 189 12 about about IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 189 13 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 189 14 importation importation NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 189 15 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 189 16 an an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 189 17 infection infection NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 189 18 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 189 19 so so IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 189 20 inclusion inclusion NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 189 21 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 189 22 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 189 23 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 189 24 flight flight NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 189 25 transmission transmission NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 189 26 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 189 27 an an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 189 28 attractive attractive JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 189 29 feature feature NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 189 30 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 189 31 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-048339-nzh87aux 189 32 model model NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 189 33 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 190 1 Events event NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 190 2 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 190 3 substantial substantial JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 190 4 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 190 5 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 190 6 flight flight NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 190 7 transmission transmission NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 190 8 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 190 9 influenza influenza NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 190 10 have have VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 190 11 been be VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 190 12 documented document VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 190 13 [ [ -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 190 14 10 10 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 190 15 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 190 16 16 16 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 190 17 ] ] -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 190 18 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 190 19 modeling modeling NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 190 20 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 190 21 indoor indoor JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 190 22 airborne airborne JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 190 23 infection infection NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 190 24 risks risk VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 190 25 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 190 26 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 190 27 absence absence NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 190 28 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 190 29 air air NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 190 30 filtration filtration NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 190 31 predicts predict VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 190 32 that that IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 190 33 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 190 34 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 190 35 flight flight NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 190 36 transmission transmission NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 190 37 risks risk NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 190 38 are be VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 190 39 elevated elevate VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 190 40 [ [ -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 190 41 17 17 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 190 42 ] ] -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 190 43 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 191 1 However however RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 191 2 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 191 3 it -PRON- PRP cord-048339-nzh87aux 191 4 difficult difficult JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 191 5 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 191 6 estimate estimate VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 191 7 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 191 8 infectiousness infectiousness NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 191 9 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 191 10 influenza influenza NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 191 11 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 191 12 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 191 13 confined confine VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 191 14 cabin cabin NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 191 15 space space NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 191 16 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 191 17 as as IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 191 18 there there EX cord-048339-nzh87aux 191 19 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 191 20 undoubtedly undoubtedly RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 191 21 substantial substantial JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 191 22 under under IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 191 23 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 191 24 reporting reporting NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 191 25 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 191 26 influenza influenza NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 191 27 cases case NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 191 28 who who WP cord-048339-nzh87aux 191 29 travel travel VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 191 30 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 191 31 fail fail VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 191 32 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 191 33 generate generate VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 191 34 any any DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 191 35 offspring offspring NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 191 36 during during IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 191 37 flight flight NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 191 38 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 192 1 Provided provide VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 192 2 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 192 3 aircraft aircraft NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 192 4 ventilation ventilation NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 192 5 system system NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 192 6 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 192 7 including include VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 192 8 filtration filtration NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 192 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 192 10 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 192 11 operational operational JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 192 12 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 192 13 it -PRON- PRP cord-048339-nzh87aux 192 14 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 192 15 considered consider VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 192 16 that that IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 192 17 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 192 18 actual actual JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 192 19 risk risk NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 192 20 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 192 21 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 192 22 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 192 23 flight flight NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 192 24 transmission transmission NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 192 25 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 192 26 much much RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 192 27 lower low JJR cord-048339-nzh87aux 192 28 than than IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 192 29 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 192 30 perceived perceive VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 192 31 risk risk NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 192 32 [ [ -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 192 33 18 18 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 192 34 ] ] -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 192 35 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 193 1 Our -PRON- PRP$ cord-048339-nzh87aux 193 2 results result NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 193 3 indicate indicate VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 193 4 that that IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 193 5 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 193 6 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 193 7 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 193 8 relatively relatively RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 193 9 insensitive insensitive JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 193 10 to to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 193 11 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 193 12 rate rate NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 193 13 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 193 14 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 193 15 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 193 16 flight flight NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 193 17 transmission transmission NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 193 18 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 193 19 making make VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 193 20 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 193 21 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 193 22 flight flight NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 193 23 transmission transmission NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 193 24 less less JJR cord-048339-nzh87aux 193 25 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 193 26 an an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 193 27 issue issue NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 193 28 than than IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 193 29 commonly commonly RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 193 30 believed believe VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 193 31 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 194 1 A a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 194 2 highly highly RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 194 3 elevated elevated JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 194 4 transmission transmission NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 194 5 rate rate NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 194 6 inflight inflight NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 194 7 will will MD cord-048339-nzh87aux 194 8 hasten hasten VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 194 9 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 194 10 importation importation NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 194 11 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 194 12 an an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 194 13 epidemic epidemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 194 14 only only RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 194 15 marginally marginally RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 194 16 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 195 1 Consistent consistent JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 195 2 with with IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 195 3 this this DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 195 4 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 195 5 eliminating eliminate VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 195 6 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 195 7 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 195 8 flight flight NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 195 9 transmission transmission NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 195 10 by by IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 195 11 wearing wear VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 195 12 protective protective JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 195 13 masks mask NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 195 14 increases increase VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 195 15 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 195 16 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 195 17 only only RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 195 18 marginally marginally RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 195 19 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 196 1 Early early JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 196 2 presentation presentation NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 196 3 by by IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 196 4 infected infected JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 196 5 arrivals arrival NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 196 6 not not RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 196 7 detected detect VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 196 8 at at IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 196 9 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 196 10 borders border NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 196 11 was be VBD cord-048339-nzh87aux 196 12 found find VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 196 13 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 196 14 add add VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 196 15 only only RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 196 16 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 196 17 few few JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 196 18 days day NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 196 19 to to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 196 20 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 196 21 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 196 22 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 197 1 To to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 197 2 some some DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 197 3 extent extent NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 197 4 this this DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 197 5 arises arise VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 197 6 due due IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 197 7 to to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 197 8 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-048339-nzh87aux 197 9 assumption assumption NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 197 10 that that IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 197 11 pre pre JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 197 12 - - JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 197 13 symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 197 14 transmission transmission NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 197 15 can can MD cord-048339-nzh87aux 197 16 occur occur VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 197 17 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 197 18 for for IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 197 19 which which WDT cord-048339-nzh87aux 197 20 there there EX cord-048339-nzh87aux 197 21 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 197 22 some some DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 197 23 evidence evidence NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 197 24 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 198 1 In in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 198 2 contrast contrast NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 198 3 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 198 4 Ferguson Ferguson NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 198 5 et et NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 198 6 al al NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 198 7 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 199 1 [ [ -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 199 2 2 2 LS cord-048339-nzh87aux 199 3 ] ] -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 199 4 assume assume VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 199 5 that that IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 199 6 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 199 7 incubation incubation NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 199 8 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 199 9 latent latent JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 199 10 periods period NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 199 11 are be VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 199 12 equal equal JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 199 13 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 199 14 with with IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 199 15 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 199 16 mean mean NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 199 17 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 199 18 1.5 1.5 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 199 19 days day NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 199 20 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 200 1 In in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 200 2 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-048339-nzh87aux 200 3 model model NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 200 4 presymptomatic presymptomatic JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 200 5 transmission transmission NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 200 6 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 200 7 excluded exclude VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 200 8 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 200 9 infectiousness infectiousness NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 200 10 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 200 11 estimated estimate VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 200 12 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 200 13 spike spike VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 200 14 dramatically dramatically RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 200 15 immediately immediately RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 200 16 following follow VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 200 17 symptom symptom NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 200 18 onset onset NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 200 19 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 200 20 declining decline VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 200 21 rapidly rapidly RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 200 22 soon soon RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 200 23 afterwards afterwards RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 200 24 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 201 1 Under under IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 201 2 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-048339-nzh87aux 201 3 model model NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 201 4 assumptions assumption NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 201 5 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 201 6 immediate immediate JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 201 7 presentation presentation NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 201 8 at at IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 201 9 onset onset NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 201 10 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 201 11 symptoms symptom NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 201 12 would would MD cord-048339-nzh87aux 201 13 reduce reduce VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 201 14 transmission transmission NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 201 15 effectively effectively RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 201 16 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 202 1 However however RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 202 2 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 202 3 as as IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 202 4 presentation presentation NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 202 5 occurs occur VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 202 6 some some DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 202 7 time time NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 202 8 after after IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 202 9 onset onset NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 202 10 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 202 11 symptoms symptom NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 202 12 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 202 13 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 202 14 bulk bulk NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 202 15 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 202 16 infectivity infectivity NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 202 17 occurs occur VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 202 18 immediately immediately RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 202 19 after after IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 202 20 onset onset NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 202 21 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 202 22 symptoms symptom NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 202 23 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 202 24 results result NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 202 25 on on IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 202 26 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 202 27 effect effect NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 202 28 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 202 29 early early JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 202 30 presentation presentation NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 202 31 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 202 32 cases case NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 202 33 are be VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 202 34 likely likely JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 202 35 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 202 36 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 202 37 practical practical JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 202 38 terms term NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 202 39 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 202 40 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 202 41 be be VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 202 42 similar similar JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 202 43 to to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 202 44 those those DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 202 45 found find VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 202 46 here here RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 202 47 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 203 1 Given give VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 203 2 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 203 3 variable variable JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 203 4 nature nature NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 203 5 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 203 6 influenza influenza NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 203 7 symptoms symptom NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 203 8 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 203 9 there there EX cord-048339-nzh87aux 203 10 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 203 11 likely likely JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 203 12 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 203 13 be be VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 203 14 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 203 15 difference difference NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 203 16 between between IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 203 17 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 203 18 onset onset NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 203 19 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 203 20 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 203 21 first first JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 203 22 symptoms symptom NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 203 23 as as IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 203 24 measured measure VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 203 25 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 203 26 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 203 27 clinical clinical JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 203 28 trial trial NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 203 29 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 203 30 e.g. e.g. RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 203 31 [ [ -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 203 32 19 19 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 203 33 ] ] -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 203 34 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 203 35 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 203 36 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 203 37 time time NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 203 38 that that WDT cord-048339-nzh87aux 203 39 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 203 40 person person NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 203 41 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 203 42 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 203 43 field field NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 203 44 first first RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 203 45 suspects suspect NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 203 46 that that IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 203 47 they -PRON- PRP cord-048339-nzh87aux 203 48 may may MD cord-048339-nzh87aux 203 49 be be VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 203 50 infected infect VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 203 51 with with IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 203 52 influenza influenza NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 203 53 virus virus NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 203 54 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 204 1 To to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 204 2 fully fully RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 204 3 resolve resolve VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 204 4 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 204 5 issue issue NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 204 6 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 204 7 how how WRB cord-048339-nzh87aux 204 8 effective effective JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 204 9 very very RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 204 10 early early JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 204 11 presentation presentation NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 204 12 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 204 13 infected infected JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 204 14 travelers traveler NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 204 15 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 204 16 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 204 17 delaying delay VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 204 18 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 204 19 local local JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 204 20 epidemic epidemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 204 21 we -PRON- PRP cord-048339-nzh87aux 204 22 need need VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 204 23 better well JJR cord-048339-nzh87aux 204 24 knowledge knowledge NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 204 25 about about IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 204 26 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 204 27 infectiousness infectiousness NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 204 28 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 204 29 individuals individual NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 204 30 before before IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 204 31 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 204 32 just just RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 204 33 after after IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 204 34 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 204 35 onset onset NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 204 36 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 204 37 symptoms symptom NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 204 38 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 205 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-048339-nzh87aux 205 2 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 205 3 assumed assume VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 205 4 that that IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 205 5 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 205 6 pandemic pandemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 205 7 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 205 8 identified identify VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 205 9 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 205 10 declared declare VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 205 11 when when WRB cord-048339-nzh87aux 205 12 there there EX cord-048339-nzh87aux 205 13 are be VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 205 14 10 10 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 205 15 concurrent concurrent JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 205 16 cases case NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 205 17 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 205 18 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 205 19 source source NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 205 20 region region NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 205 21 attributed attribute VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 205 22 to to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 205 23 human human NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 205 24 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 205 25 to to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 205 26 - - HYPH cord-048339-nzh87aux 205 27 human human JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 205 28 transmission transmission NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 205 29 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 205 30 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 205 31 that that IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 205 32 screening screening NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 205 33 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 205 34 applied apply VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 205 35 at at IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 205 36 both both DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 205 37 departure departure NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 205 38 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 205 39 arrival arrival NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 205 40 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 206 1 The the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 206 2 time time NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 206 3 between between IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 206 4 screening screening NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 206 5 events event NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 206 6 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 206 7 assumed assume VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 206 8 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 206 9 be be VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 206 10 12 12 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 206 11 hours hour NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 206 12 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 206 13 infected infected JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 206 14 travelers traveler NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 206 15 are be VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 206 16 not not RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 206 17 isolated isolate VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 206 18 following follow VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 206 19 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 206 20 onset onset NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 206 21 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 206 22 symptoms symptom NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 206 23 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 207 1 Of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 207 2 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 207 3 border border NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 207 4 control control NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 207 5 measures measure NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 207 6 available available JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 207 7 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 207 8 reducing reduce VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 207 9 traveler traveler NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 207 10 numbers number NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 207 11 has have VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 207 12 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 207 13 biggest big JJS cord-048339-nzh87aux 207 14 effect effect NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 207 15 on on IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 207 16 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 207 17 delay delay NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 207 18 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 207 19 even even RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 207 20 then then RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 207 21 it -PRON- PRP cord-048339-nzh87aux 207 22 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 207 23 necessary necessary JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 207 24 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 207 25 get get VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 207 26 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 207 27 number number NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 207 28 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 207 29 travelers traveler NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 207 30 down down RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 207 31 to to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 207 32 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 207 33 very very RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 207 34 low low JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 207 35 number number NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 207 36 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 208 1 An an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 208 2 equivalent equivalent JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 208 3 control control NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 208 4 measure measure NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 208 5 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 208 6 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 208 7 quarantine quarantine VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 208 8 all all DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 208 9 arriving arrive VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 208 10 passengers passenger NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 208 11 with with IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 208 12 near near JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 208 13 perfect perfect JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 208 14 compliance compliance NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 208 15 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 209 1 Our -PRON- PRP$ cord-048339-nzh87aux 209 2 results result NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 209 3 indicate indicate VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 209 4 that that IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 209 5 short short JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 209 6 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 209 7 virtually virtually RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 209 8 eliminating eliminate VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 209 9 international international JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 209 10 travel travel NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 209 11 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 209 12 border border NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 209 13 control control NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 209 14 measures measure NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 209 15 add add VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 209 16 little little JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 209 17 to to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 209 18 avoiding avoid VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 209 19 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 209 20 or or CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 209 21 delaying delay VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 209 22 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 209 23 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 209 24 local local JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 209 25 epidemic epidemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 209 26 if if IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 209 27 an an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 209 28 influenza influenza NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 209 29 pandemic pandemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 209 30 takes take VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 209 31 off off RP cord-048339-nzh87aux 209 32 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 209 33 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 209 34 source source NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 209 35 region region NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 209 36 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 210 1 All all DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 210 2 forms form NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 210 3 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 210 4 border border NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 210 5 control control NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 210 6 are be VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 210 7 eventually eventually RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 210 8 overwhelmed overwhelm VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 210 9 by by IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 210 10 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 210 11 cumulative cumulative JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 210 12 number number NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 210 13 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 210 14 infected infected JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 210 15 travelers traveler NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 210 16 that that WDT cord-048339-nzh87aux 210 17 attempt attempt VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 210 18 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 210 19 enter enter VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 210 20 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 210 21 country country NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 210 22 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 211 1 The the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 211 2 only only JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 211 3 way way NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 211 4 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 211 5 prevent prevent VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 211 6 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 211 7 local local JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 211 8 epidemic epidemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 211 9 is be VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 211 10 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 211 11 rapidly rapidly RB cord-048339-nzh87aux 211 12 implement implement VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 211 13 local local JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 211 14 control control NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 211 15 measures measure NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 211 16 that that WDT cord-048339-nzh87aux 211 17 bring bring VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 211 18 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 211 19 effective effective JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 211 20 reproduction reproduction NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 211 21 number number NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 211 22 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 211 23 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 211 24 local local JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 211 25 area area NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 211 26 down down IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 211 27 below below IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 211 28 1 1 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 211 29 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 211 30 or or CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 211 31 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 211 32 achieve achieve VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 211 33 rapid rapid JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 211 34 elimination elimination NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 211 35 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 211 36 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 211 37 source source NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 211 38 region region NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 211 39 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 211 40 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 211 41 agreement agreement NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 211 42 with with IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 211 43 other other JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 211 44 recent recent JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 211 45 studies study NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 211 46 [ [ -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 211 47 6 6 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 211 48 ] ] -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 211 49 [ [ -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 211 50 7 7 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 211 51 ] ] -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 211 52 [ [ -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 211 53 8 8 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 211 54 ] ] -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 211 55 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 212 1 Preventing prevent VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 212 2 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 212 3 exponential exponential JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 212 4 growth growth NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 212 5 phase phase NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 212 6 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 212 7 an an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 212 8 epidemic epidemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 212 9 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 212 10 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 212 11 source source NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 212 12 region region NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 212 13 appears appear VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 212 14 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 212 15 be be VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 212 16 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 212 17 only only JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 212 18 method method NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 212 19 able able JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 212 20 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 212 21 prevent prevent VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 212 22 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 212 23 nascent nascent JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 212 24 influenza influenza NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 212 25 pandemic pandemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 212 26 reaching reach VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 212 27 atrisk atrisk NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 212 28 countries country NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 212 29 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 1 Text Text NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 2 S1 s1 NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 3 Estimating Estimating NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 4 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 5 daily daily JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 6 probability probability NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 7 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 8 epidemic epidemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 9 initiation initiation NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 10 Found find VBD cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 11 at at IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 12 : : : cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 13 doi:10.1371 doi:10.1371 NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 14 / / SYM cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 15 journal.pone.0000143.s001 journal.pone.0000143.s001 NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 16 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 17 0.08 0.08 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 18 MB mb NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 19 PDF pdf NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 20 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 21 Mitigation mitigation NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 22 strategies strategy NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 23 for for IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 24 pandemic pandemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 25 influenza influenza NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 26 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 27 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 28 United United NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 29 States States NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 30 Strategies Strategies NNPS cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 31 for for IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 32 containing contain VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 33 an an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 34 emerging emerge VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 35 influenza influenza NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 36 pandemic pandemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 37 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 38 Southeast Southeast NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 39 Asia Asia NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 40 Containing contain VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 41 pandemic pandemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 42 influenza influenza NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 43 at at IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 44 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 45 source source NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 46 Border border NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 47 screening screening NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 48 for for IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 49 SARS SARS NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 50 Entry Entry NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 51 screening screening NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 52 for for IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 53 severe severe JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 54 acute acute JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 55 respiratory respiratory JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 56 syndrome syndrome NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 57 ( ( -LRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 58 SARS SARS NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 59 ) ) -RRB- cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 60 or or CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 61 influenza influenza NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 62 : : : cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 63 policy policy NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 64 evaluation evaluation NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 65 Delaying delay VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 66 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 67 international international JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 68 spread spread NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 69 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 70 pandemic pandemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 71 influenza influenza NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 72 Strategies strategy NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 73 for for IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 74 mitigating mitigate VBG cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 75 an an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 76 influenza influenza NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 213 77 pandemic pandemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 214 1 Will Will MD cord-048339-nzh87aux 214 2 travel travel VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 214 3 restrictions restriction NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 214 4 control control VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 214 5 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 214 6 international international JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 214 7 spread spread NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 214 8 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 214 9 pandemic pandemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 214 10 influenza influenza NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 214 11 Analysis Analysis NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 214 12 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 215 1 Infectious Infectious NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 215 2 Disease Disease NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 215 3 Data Data NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 215 4 An an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 215 5 outbreak outbreak NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 215 6 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 215 7 influenza influenza NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 215 8 aboard aboard IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 215 9 a a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 215 10 commercial commercial JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 215 11 airline airline NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 215 12 Should Should MD cord-048339-nzh87aux 215 13 be be VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 215 14 expect expect VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 215 15 population population NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 215 16 thresholds threshold NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 215 17 for for IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 215 18 wildlife wildlife NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 215 19 disease disease NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 215 20 ? ? . cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 1 The the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 2 Theory theory NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 3 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 4 Branching Branching NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 5 Processes Processes NNPS cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 6 Matrix Matrix NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 7 Population Population NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 8 Models Models NNPS cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 9 : : : cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 10 Construction Construction NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 11 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 12 Analysis Analysis NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 13 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 14 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 15 Interpretation Interpretation NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 16 Superspreading Superspreading NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 17 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 18 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 19 effect effect NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 20 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 21 individual individual JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 22 variation variation NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 23 on on IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 24 disease disease NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 25 emergence emergence NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 26 Transmissibility Transmissibility NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 27 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 28 1918 1918 CD cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 29 pandemic pandemic NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 30 influenza influenza NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 31 Influenza Influenza NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 32 outbreak outbreak NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 33 related relate VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 34 to to IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 35 air air NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 36 travel travel NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 37 A a DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 38 probabilistic probabilistic JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 39 transmission transmission NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 40 dynamic dynamic JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 41 model model NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 42 to to TO cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 43 assess assess VB cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 44 indoor indoor JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 45 airborne airborne JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 46 infection infection NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 47 risks risk VBZ cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 48 Transmission transmission NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 49 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 50 infectious infectious JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 51 diseases disease NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 52 during during IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 53 commercial commercial JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 54 air air NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 55 travel travel NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 56 Use Use NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 57 of of IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 58 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 59 oral oral JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 60 neuraminidase neuraminidase NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 61 inhibitor inhibitor NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 62 oseltamivir oseltamivir NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 63 in in IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 64 experimental experimental JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 65 human human JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 216 66 influenza influenza NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 217 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-048339-nzh87aux 217 2 thank thank VBP cord-048339-nzh87aux 217 3 James James NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 217 4 Wood Wood NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 217 5 , , , cord-048339-nzh87aux 217 6 Katie Katie NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 217 7 Glass Glass NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 217 8 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 217 9 Belinda Belinda NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 217 10 Barnes Barnes NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 217 11 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 217 12 an an DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 217 13 anonymous anonymous JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 217 14 reviewer reviewer NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 217 15 for for IN cord-048339-nzh87aux 217 16 helpful helpful JJ cord-048339-nzh87aux 217 17 comments comment NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 217 18 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 218 1 Conceived conceive VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 218 2 and and CC cord-048339-nzh87aux 218 3 designed design VBD cord-048339-nzh87aux 218 4 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 218 5 experiments experiment NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 218 6 : : : cord-048339-nzh87aux 218 7 NB NB NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 218 8 PC PC NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 218 9 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 219 1 Performed perform VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 219 2 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 219 3 experiments experiment NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 219 4 : : : cord-048339-nzh87aux 219 5 PC pc NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 219 6 DP dp NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 219 7 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 220 1 Analyzed analyze VBD cord-048339-nzh87aux 220 2 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 220 3 data datum NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 220 4 : : : cord-048339-nzh87aux 220 5 NB NB NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 220 6 PC pc NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 220 7 DP dp NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 220 8 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 221 1 Contributed contribute VBN cord-048339-nzh87aux 221 2 reagents reagent NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 221 3 / / SYM cord-048339-nzh87aux 221 4 materials material NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 221 5 / / SYM cord-048339-nzh87aux 221 6 analysis analysis NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 221 7 tools tool NNS cord-048339-nzh87aux 221 8 : : : cord-048339-nzh87aux 221 9 PC pc NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 221 10 DP dp NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 221 11 . . . cord-048339-nzh87aux 222 1 Wrote write VBD cord-048339-nzh87aux 222 2 the the DT cord-048339-nzh87aux 222 3 paper paper NN cord-048339-nzh87aux 222 4 : : : cord-048339-nzh87aux 222 5 NB NB NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 222 6 PC PC NNP cord-048339-nzh87aux 222 7 . . .