id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-292026-cj43pn0f	Moirano, Giovenale	Approaches to Daily Monitoring of the SARS-CoV-2 Outbreak in Northern Italy	2020-05-22		.txt	text/plain	2633	121	50	We (i) estimated the time-varying reproduction number (R(t)), the average number of secondary cases that each infected individual would infect at time t, to monitor the positive impact of restriction measures; (ii) applied the generalized logistic and the modified Richards models to describe the epidemic pattern and obtain short-term forecasts. Both models were fitted to data in order to characterize the pattern of the epidemic in its early phases, produce 5 days forecast of the number of new infections, and estimate the peak time and the final size of the epidemic curve. Estimated time trends and 5-day forecasts for daily COVID-19 deaths should theoretically follow, by ∼1-15 days, the trends of new cases, and are thus less informative for decision making, but are possibly less affected by testing and reporting variations (Figure 4 , results from the GLM model only).	./cache/cord-292026-cj43pn0f.txt	./txt/cord-292026-cj43pn0f.txt