id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-048339-nzh87aux	Caley, Peter	The Waiting Time for Inter-Country Spread of Pandemic Influenza	2007-01-03		.txt	text/plain	5739	253	45	On the other hand, the model predicts that border screening for symptomatic infection, wearing a protective mask during travel, promoting early presentation of cases arising among arriving passengers and moderate reduction in travel volumes increase the delay only by a matter of days or weeks. In this paper we demonstrate how the delay to importation of an epidemic of pandemic strain influenza may be quantified in terms of the growing infection incidence in the source region, traveler volumes, border screening measures, travel duration, inflight transmission and the delay until an infected arrival initiates a chain of transmission that gathers momentum. For example, if R = 1.5, and we reduce the number of intending travelers from 400 to 10 per day, implement 100% flight-based quarantining, implement compulsory mask wearing during travel and presentation at 6 hours following symptom onset then there is a substantial probability (0.74) that the pandemic strain will never be imported (assuming the epidemic is confined to the source country).	./cache/cord-048339-nzh87aux.txt	./txt/cord-048339-nzh87aux.txt