id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-308658-38f8ftmh	Aleta, Alberto	Evaluation of the potential incidence of COVID-19 and effectiveness of contention measures in Spain: a data-driven approach	2020-03-06		.txt	text/plain	4779	210	52	Our results are in line with the most recent recommendations from the World Health Organization, namely, that the best strategy is the early detection and isolation of individuals with symptoms, followed by interventions and public recommendations aimed at reducing the transmissibility of the disease, which although not efficacious for disease eradication, would produce as a second-order effect a delay of several days in the raise of the number of infected cases Here, we follow the modeling path and analyze, through a data-driven stochastic SEIR-metapopulation model, the temporal and spatial transmission of the COVID-19 disease in Spain as well as the expected impact of possible and customary contention measures. Figure 4 shows the expected hitting time for each province when the disease starts from 5 different locations, as well as one case with seeds in multiple places, as obtained from the SEIR metapopulation model.	./cache/cord-308658-38f8ftmh.txt	./txt/cord-308658-38f8ftmh.txt