id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-007437-mktbkn1u	Harris, Mallory J.	Early warning signals of malaria resurgence in Kericho, Kenya	2020-03-18		.txt	text/plain	3309	154	42	Nine of the statistics increased as predicted and variance, the first difference of variance, autocovariance, lag-1 autocorrelation and decay time returned early warning signals of critical slowing down based on permutation tests. Here, we show the evidence of critical slowing down in a time series of monthly Plasmodium falciparum malaria case incidence leading up to a resurgence in Kericho, Kenya. Our conclusion is that the statistical signatures of critical slowing down may be detected in ordinary surveillance data prior to disease resurgence and therefore should be incorporated into monitoring programmes and decision support for proactive response. A related problem is that the models of the disease system approaching a critical transition used to identify potential early warning signals consider the total number of infectious individuals, whereas reported data (such as studied here) reflect the number of cases reported in a sampling interval (here, monthly hospital reports) [16, 26] .	./cache/cord-007437-mktbkn1u.txt	./txt/cord-007437-mktbkn1u.txt