key: cord-018328-t3ydu75l
authors: Shi, Peijun
title: Hazards, Disasters, and Risks
date: 2019-06-05
journal: Disaster Risk Science
DOI: 10.1007/978-981-13-6689-5_1
sha: 
doc_id: 18328
cord_uid: t3ydu75l

In this chapter, we will elaborate on three basic terms in the field of disaster risk science: hazards, disasters, and risks. We will also discuss the classification, indexes, temporal and spatial patterns, and some other fundamental scientific problems that are related to these three terms.

Atmospheric hazard: tropical cyclone, tornado, hail, snow, lightning and thunderstorm, long-term climatic change, and short-term climatic change.

Biophysical hazard: wildfire. Space hazard: geomagnetic storm and extra impact events. The hazard groups proposed by Joel C. Gill et al. are almost equivalent to the hazard families of ICSU-IRDR classification except for two differences. One difference is that the meteorological and climatological families of ICSU-IRDR were combined into a single atmospheric group in Gill's classification. The other difference is that the hazard group of shallow earth processes was added in Gill's classification in order to emphasize the hazardous impacts of shallow earth changes (Table 1.1). Gill and Malamud (2014) Hazard group

Code Definition Component hazards (where applicable)

Geophysical Earthquake EQ The sudden release of stored elastic energy in the earth's lithosphere, caused by its abrupt movement or fracturing along zones of preexisting geological weakness and resulting in the generation of seismic waves Ground shaking, ground rupture, and liquefaction Tsunami TS The displacement of a significant volume of water, generating a series of waves with large wavelengths and low amplitudes. As the waves approach the shallow water, their amplitude increases through wave shoaling Volcanic eruption VO The subterranean movement of magma and its eruption and ejection from volcanic systems together with associated tephra, ashes, and gases, under the influence of the confining pressure and superheated steam and gases Gas and aerosol emission, ash and tephra ejection, pyroclastic and lava flows 

In the book Regions of Risk by Hewitt (1997) , hazards were divided into the following categories:

Natural hazards include four types (meteorological, hydrological, geological and geomorphological, biological and disease hazards)

Technological hazards include hazardous materials, destructive processes, and hazardous designs.

Social violence hazards include weapons, crime, and organized violence.

Compound hazards include fog, dam failure, and gas explosion. Complex disasters include famine, refugees, poisonous flood, nuclear wastes and explosion of nuclear power plants (Table 1 .2). Famine (drought + poor harvest + food hoarding + poverty) Refugee crisis (famine + war) Toxic floods (tailings dams + toxic waste + flood) Harmful nuclear tests and power plant explosions (nuclear explosion and pollution + atmospheric circulation + rain and atomic dust + migration)

Another way to categorize hazards is based on the environment where hazards occur (also called disaster-formative environment). The classification based on causes emphasizes the origin of hazards, that is, whether the hazards are caused by natural factors, human factors, or the interaction between natural and human factors. In contrast, the classification based on disaster-formative environment lays stress on the environmental basis of hazards, especially the distinctions among different spheres of the earth, and relatively ignores the causes. Actually, different kinds of hazards nowadays contain effects from both the natural and human factors to different degrees. And this is one of the important reasons why UN changed the goal of the global disaster reduction activities from natural disaster reduction to disaster risk reduction.

(1) Classification of hazards by Peijun Shi

In Shi's paper (1991) published on the Journal of Nanjing University (Natural Sciences, Special Issue on Natural Hazards), hazards were divided into four levels: systems, groups, types, and kinds. This classification highlights not only the occurrence environment but also the causes of hazards (Shi 1991) .

The first level of this classification is focused on the causes, the second level the environments, the third level the types, and the fourth level the detailed hazards.

The hazard system is composed of three systems: nature, human, and environment. The natural hazard system is then divided into four groups: atmosphere, lithosphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere. The hazards are mainly caused by natural environmental factors. The human hazard system includes three groups: technology, conflicts, and wars. The hazards are mainly caused by human environmental factors. The environmental hazard system is made up of five groups: global change, environmental pollution, desertification, vegetation degradation, and environmental diseases. The hazards are due to integrated natural and human factors.

(2) Classification of hazards in Zhang Lansheng and Liu Enzhen

The Atlas of Natural Hazards in China edited by Zhang and Liu, as a result of the cooperation between Beijing Normal University and the People's Insurance Company of China, was published by China Science Press (Beijing) in 1992. Based on the atlas, the paper A Research on Regional Distribution of Major Natural Hazards in China by Wang et al. (1994) was published, and the classification system of major natural hazards in China consisting of types and subtypes (Table 1. 3) was built. The major natural hazards in China can be divided into 5 environments, 31 types, and 108 subtypes based on the differences in disaster-formative environments. Atmosphere including nine natural hazards-drought, typhoon, rainstorm, hailstorm, extreme low temperatures, frost, ice and snow, sandstorm, and dry-hot wind.

Hydrosphere including five natural hazards-flood, waterlogging, storm surge, sea wave, and tsunami.

Lithosphere including five natural hazards-earthquake, landslide, debris flow, subsidence, and wind-drift sand.

Biosphere including six natural hazards-crop diseases, crop pests, forest diseases and pests, rodents, poisonous weeds, and red tide.

Geosphere including six natural hazards-soil erosion, desertification, soil salinization, frozen soil, endemic disease, and environmental pollution.

(1) Intensity classification of single hazard

The intensity classification of single hazard is based on the measurement specifications and standards of hazards. Hazards of different origins and in different environments are measured by different indicators. For example, earthquakes are measured in magnitude, rainstorms in rainfall intensity, typhoons in maximum sustained wind, and floods in flood stage. Those hazard measurement specifications and classification standards can be found on the Web sites of international or national departments of measurement standards.

Generally speaking, meteorological departments set up the measurement specifications and classification standards for atmospheric hazards; hydrological or water resources, and oceanic administrations for hydrosphere hazards; geological and A large number of observations show that there is a negative correlation between hazard intensity and frequency. In other words, the higher the intensity is, the lower the occurring frequency is and the longer the repeating period is. There is a power function relationship between the hazard intensity and the occurring frequency (Chen and Shi 2013) .

Refer to textbooks or monographs on geoscience, life science and resources and environmental science for the intensity classification of single hazard.

(2) Intensity classification of multi-hazards

The regional and integrated disaster risk research requires scientists to understand the diversity of hazards of different spatial and temporal scales and classify the intensities of multi-hazards. Because the measurement indicators vary among different hazards and there is no universal indicator, the intensity classification method for single hazard mentioned in the previous section will not be able to meet the needs of the regional and comprehensive studies of the diversity of hazards.

Based on current data, it is very difficult to synthesize various hazard intensities measured in different indicators. One way to get around this problem is to divide each kind of hazard intensity into relative levels and then calculate the average of levels weighted by the area that respective type of hazard covers during a certain period of time. This method can approximately reflect the regional overall hazard intensities in a certain space and a certain period of time. But there is one problem with this method; that is, different hazards with the same level of relative intensity might have different impacts on hazard-affected bodies. Therefore, in order to eliminate this effect, another term is added-the weighted average of the loss rate of each hazard in a certain space and time period.

Referring to the quadrat method in the vegetation investigation, we proposed to use multiple degree to describe the abundance of hazards in a region. Another way to do this is similar to the multiple cropping index calculation in land-use research. Based on Wang et al.'s paper (1994) , in this book, we propose to use multiple degree and covering index of hazards to express the clustering degree and influence of multiple hazards in a region.

Multiple degree (H D ): the clustering degree of hazards in a certain region. As a relative value changing with the compared region, it can be expressed as

where H D is the multiple degree of hazards in a region (%), n is the number of hazards in the region, and N is the number of hazards in a higher level of region (e.g., World, Asia, China). The value of N is set to be 108 (Table 1. 3) for the calculation of county-level multiple degree of natural hazards in China.

Relative intensity (H i ): the relative destructive or damaging ability of hazards. Relative intensity is a relative value and only a quantity of the hazard per se. It is not an obvious positive correlation with the disaster loss or damage but is the basic reason (condition) for the regional loss. It can be calculated as follows:

where H i is the relative intensity (level) of hazards in a region, P i is the relative intensity of hazard i, and S i is the area ratio of hazard i, ranging from 0.01 to 1.0, i.e., 1-100% and i is the number of hazard types.

Covering index of hazards (H c ): the percentage of covering area of hazards in a region. It can be expressed as

where S i is the percentage of covering area of a type of hazard in a region and i is the number of hazard types.

Composite index (H): the sum of the three indexes mentioned above divided by the respective maximum values. The formula is

where H D is the hazard multiple degree, H i is the relative intensity, H C is the covering index of a hazard in a region, and max () is the maximum value of the respective index.

We will use the calculated results in Wang et al.'s paper (1994) to demonstrate the practical application of the four indexes-multiple degree, relative intensity, covering index, and composite index of hazards. Multiple degree of natural hazards. In Fig. 1 .1, the maximum value of the natural hazard multiple degree is about eight times as large as the minimum value in China. The value ranges from below 0.04 to above 0.30. This large variation shows that there is an obvious spatial clustering feature of natural hazards in China. Generally speaking, the high values are centered in North China and decrease toward northeast, northwest, and southeast. Ninety percent of the districts and counties with H D value greater than 20% are located in the middle latitude belt (25°-45°N). In Southwest China where the H D values are relatively low, the H D value increases in some topography-transition areas. Thus, it can be seen that natural hazards relatively cluster in natural environment transition zones, such as the middle latitude belt, sea-land transition zones, topography-transition areas, and semiarid farming-pastoral ecotone. In the transition regions of several natural environments, there exist continuous areas with high H D values. North China is right in such location and thus becomes the most concentrated area of natural hazards in China, also an important part of the Pacific Rim and mid-latitude multiple hazard belt. Therefore, regional natural hazards' factors are of important value to the degree of regional natural environmental change.

Covering index of natural hazards. Figure 1 .2 shows that there is a large variation in covering index of natural hazards in China, ranging from less than 0.02 to more than 11.0 and indicating obvious regional differences. On the whole, the trapezoid region with Qiqihar, Harbin, Tianshui, and Hangzhou as four vertexes has the highest H C values (>8.0) in the country. In this high-value region, the Northeast China Plain and the North China Plain have values usually greater than 9.0. The regions with H C values greater than 10 display a Lambda-shaped layout; that is, one line is Qiqihar-Tongliao-Beijing-Taiyuan-Baoji-Tianshui, and the other line stretches from southern Hebei Province to Hangzhou along the Grand Canal. The low-value regions are centered in the Northern Tibetan Plateau, from which H C value increases outwards. In regions south of the Yangtze River, there are two high-value belts: southeast coastal belt and southwestern provinces including Yunnan, Guizhou, and Sichuan. There is a positive correlation between the H C value and the H D value. It can be seen from Figs. 1.1 and 1.2 that H C values and H D Relative intensity of natural hazards. Figure 1 .3 shows that H i values are within the range of 0.8-24.0. Regions with a H i value greater than 19.0 are sparsely distributed. One high-intensity area (H i > 16.0) stretches from the northeast to the southwest, and another one is in the southeastern side of the first one-Hunan and Jiangxi Provinces. The relative intensities in the vast north-central Tibetan Plateau and Northwest China are relatively low. The regional differentiation of relative intensity is tightly associated with the regional distribution of several major hazards. First of all, the seismically active belts of China, i.e., the Pacific Rim belt and Himalayan seismic belt, have the correspondingly high intensities. Seismic regions, once having an earthquake with a magnitude greater than 8, usually become small high-intensity centers, such as West China, Tangshan. Secondly, the high-intensity regions are overlapped with the regions concentrated with cloudbursts. For example, the coastal typhoon belt, the northern Hebei Mountains-Taihang Mountains-Dabie Mountains cloudburst belt, and the cloudburst belts in western Sichuan and (Shi 2011) western Hunan. Thirdly, the frequently flooded areas also correspond to high relative intensity areas. These areas include Liaohe Plain, North China Plain, Northern Jiangsu Plain, and Hubei and Hunan Plains. Finally, areas with frequent debris flows and landslides, mainly in the "Second

Step" east to Tibetan Plateau, have high values of relative intensity. Therefore, the overall relative intensity of natural hazards is controlled by several major natural hazards. However, these major natural hazards may also interact in the same region, which makes the regional differentiation of relative intensity of China's natural hazards more complicated and also expands the high-intensity regions. In every high relative intensity area, there is at least one dominant natural hazard.

Relationships among multiple degree, relative intensity, and covering index. The interaction of the three indexes varies among regions. Figure 1 .4 shows the regional distribution of the composite index of natural hazards in China. North China has the highest values of all three indexes and thus is affected by frequent and catastrophic hazards. Coastal areas have the second highest values of three indexes and are subject to frequent and severe hazards. The third highest value regions include the farming-pastoral ecotone in northern and western Sichuan, Yunnan, western Guizhou, and southeastern Tibetan Plateau in the southwest. Whereas, the northern Tibet is a low-value region. The above outlines the basic regional differentiation of natural hazards in mainland China. (Shi 2011) There are differences in natural hazards between eastern and western China and between southern and northern China. As for east-west differentiation, the values of multiple degree, relative intensity, and covering index are higher in the east and lower in the west. The high values in the east are centered in North China while the low values in the west are centered in northern Tibet. As for north-south differentiation, the vast area within 25°to 45°N in the east has values of all three indexes higher than areas to its south and north. Among this vast area, the highest values exist in range of 30°to 40°N. However, the north-south differentiation in the west is not obvious, since there are incomplete data records, especially in the border area among Tibet, Qinghai, and Xinjiang, or the Hoh Xil region. Due to inadequate data, this region has the lowest values of all three indexes nationwide.

The regional differentiation of natural hazards is closely associated with the environments where hazards develop. The environmental evolution-sensitive zones usually have high multiple degree, high relative intensity, and high covering index, suffering frequent or severe hazards. However, a small number of ecologically vulnerable areas have low values of multiple degree and intensity. One outstanding example is eastern Guizhou. In areas with harsh environment, such as the vast West China, the multiple degree and relative intensity are not necessarily high. Therefore, there is no direct relationship between environmental conditions and the impacts of natural hazards. 

Disasters are direct or indirect results of hazards. Disaster impacts include human losses, property losses, resources and environmental destruction, ecological damages, disruption of social order, and threats to the normal functioning of lifelines and production lines.

The classification of disasters is closely associated with hazards and disaster-affected bodies. In Chinese literatures, "Zaihai" is used to refer to both hazards and disasters. However, in Western literatures, hazard and disaster are two terms used separately. Most researches in the West are focused on the classification of hazards, rarely on the classification of disasters. Whereas, in Chinese literatures, the classification of disasters takes the place of the classifications of both hazards and disasters. This confusion of hazards with disasters, or the confusion of hazard science with disaster science (e.g., seismology substitutes for earthquake catastrophology, and rainstorm meteorology for rainstorm catastrophology), negatively affects the development of disaster risk science.

With the development of human society, the types of disaster-affected bodies (exposure) have increased and the distribution of disaster-affected bodies has expanded. At the same time, human's ability of disaster prevention has also been improved. Therefore, even the same hazard could induce varying degrees of disasters. When analyzing the disasters, people stress on the disaster-affected bodies; namely, focus on human's disaster prevention level, which is referred as the vulnerability, resilience, and adaptation of human beings to hazards in the Western literatures.

As mentioned above, in Western research there is more of an emphasis on the classification of hazards than that of disasters. In Chinese official documents or research literatures, the majority is the classification of disasters based on the causes and scales of disasters. The genetic classification of disasters according to the causes in Chinese literatures is basically the same as that of hazards in Western literatures.

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In the book Introduction to Catastrophology by Ma (1998) , according to the causes, disasters can be divided into natural disasters and man-made disasters. Natural disasters can be further categorized into natural disasters and man-made natural disasters, while man-made disasters are composed of man-made disasters and natural man-made disasters. When the management of disasters is taken into account at the same time, disasters can be divided into 5 classes and further 30 types. In the book, the author also clearly pointed out the administration departments in charge of each type of disaster (Table 1. 4) . This classification is different from others in the classification of the disaster-formative environments, with an inclusion of ocean sphere instead of hydrosphere. Another difference is that sources of flood and drought are attributed to the atmosphere in Ma's classification (Ma 1994) .

Besides, this classification is basically in accordance with the classifications in PRC Disaster Reduction Report (1993) and Major Natural Disasters and Disaster Reduction in China (1994) (Table 1.5). Similar to the classification of Introduction to Catastrophology, in the book Natural Disasters by Chen (2013) , based on the differences between the internal, external, and gravitational energy of the earth, natural disasters were divided into seven major categories: earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanos, meteorological disasters, floods, landslide and debris flow, and spatial disasters. This classification does not only reflect the holistic view of disasters but also emphasizes the timescales of disasters and environmental processes of the earth system.

(2) Classification of disasters in Chinese state standards

For the dual purposes of comprehensive prevention, reduction and relief of disasters and counting the losses and damages caused by natural disasters, experts organized by State Disaster Reduction Center of Ministry of Civil Affairs drew up the classification standards of natural disasters in China, in which the definition and code of each disaster are also given. In this classification, natural disasters in China are divided into 5 groups and 40 specific types, including 13 specific meteorological and hydrological disasters, 9 seismic and geological disasters, 6 ocean disasters, 7 biological disasters, and 5 eco-environmental disasters (Table 1.6). 

Natural disasters resulting from the abnormal or anomalous quantity, intensity, temporal and spatial distribution, and combination of meteorological and hydrological elements, causing adverse impacts on people's lives and properties, industrial and agricultural production, and ecological environment 010100

Drought A deficiency in precipitation and/or a shortage in river runoff or other kinds of water resources, causing adverse impacts on people's life, industrial and agricultural production, and ecological environment 010200

Flood An overflow of water from rivers or other water bodies onto land which is usually dry, caused by excessive rainfall, melting snow and ice, levee breach and storm surge, resulting in life losses, property losses, and disruption in social functioning 010300

Typhoon A tropical cyclone that develops in a wide area over tropical or subtropical oceans, accompanied with heavy winds, rainstorm, storm surge and huge waves, bringing out damages to human lives and properties 010400

Rainstorm Rainstorm happens when the precipitation rate is more than 16 mm per hour, or more than 30 mm for 12 h or 50 mm for 24 h, causing damages to human lives and properties (continued) Hail Hail is a type of solid precipitation formed in thunderstorm clouds and controlled by strong convective weather, causing damages to human lives and properties and to crops and animals 010700

Thunder disaster Thunder disaster is an electric discharge, directly or indirectly striking human and animals, resulting in damages to human lives and properties 010800

Low-temperature disaster

Intrusion of strong cold front or constant low temperatures, causing freezing injury and damages to crops, animals, human beings, and infrastructures, disrupting normal life and production 010900

Snow and ice disaster Due to snowfall, a wide area is covered with snow or affected by snowstorm, avalanche, frozen road, and other infrastructures. It severely disturbs the lives of human beings and animals and causes damages to traffic, power, and communication systems 011000

High-temperature disaster

High temperatures cause harms to the health of animals, plants and human beings and damages to production and environment 011100

Sandstorm A strong wind blows loose sand and dirt that later mix with air from a dry surface, causing damages to human lives and properties. Horizontal visibility is usually less than 1 km 011200 Fog A visible mass composed of cloud water droplets and ice crystals suspended in the air or near the earth's surface, causing damages to human lives and properties and especially harms to the traffic safety. Horizontal visibility is usually less than 1 km 019900

Other M&H disasters Meteorological and hydrological disasters that are not mentioned above 020000

Seismic and geological disasters Natural disasters resulting from the sudden energy release or violent mass transport in the lithosphere of the earth or long-term accumulative geological changes, causing damages to human lives and properties and ecological environment 020100

Earthquake

The strong shaking of the earth's surface and the accompanying ground rupture, resulting from the sudden release of energy in the earth's crust. It causes damages to human lives, buildings and infrastructures, social functioning, and eco-environment (continued) The sudden occurrence of a violent discharge of the interior materials of the earth, causing direct damages to human lives and properties. The erupted material is referred to as lava. Other impacts include pyroclastic flow, lava flow, volcanic gases and ashes, and eruption-induced debris flow, landslide, earthquake, and tsunami 020300

Collapse

The sudden fall of unstable materials occurring at the edge of a steep cliff, causing damages to human lives and properties 020400

Landslide A slide of a large mass of dirt and rock down a slope under the action of gravity, causing damages to human lives and properties 020500

Debris flow A special water flow, entraining objects such as fragmented rocks, muds, branches in the path, rapidly rushes down mountain valleys or slopes. It results from heavy rains, reservoir or pond breach, or a sudden melting of snow and ice, causing damages to human lives and properties 020600

Surface collapse A surface depression due to abandoned mines or karst processes, causing damages to human lives and properties 020700

Ground subsidence A large-area land subsidence due to excessive extraction of groundwater or gas and oil, causing damages to human lives and properties. It occurs in unconsolidated or semi-consolidated soil areas 020800

Ground fracture A linear fissure on the ground surface cracking through the rocks or soils, causing damages to human lives and properties 029900

Other geological disasters Geological disasters that are not mentioned above 030000

Ocean disasters Disasters resulting from the abnormal or drastic change of the ocean environment and occurring on the sea or coast 030100

Strom surge A coastal flood caused by non-periodic abnormal rising of water over part of the sea that results from tropical cyclone, extratropical cyclone or cold front, causing damages to human lives and properties along the coast 030200

Sea wave Sea waves with wave height of more than 4 meters, causing damages to ships, offshore oil drilling facilities, fishery, aquaculture, harbors and ports, seawalls, or other ocean and coastal engineering 030300

Sea ice It blocks channels and causes damages to ships, offshore facilities and coastal engineering (continued) Tsunami Sea waves with wavelength up to hundreds of kilometers, induced by seafloor earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, underwater landslide, and subsidence, producing a sudden upward displacement of seawater and forming a "water wall" on the coast, devouring farmlands and villages, causing damages to human lives and properties 030500

Red tide A sudden increase or high concentration of aquatic planktons and microorganisms changing the water body color to red or brown. It disrupts the normal aquatic ecology and causes damages to human lives and properties and eco-environment. See also the red tide disaster in the biological disasters 039900

Other ocean disasters Ocean disasters that are not mentioned above 040000

Biological disasters Natural disasters in the forest or grassland resulting from activities of living being, lightning, or spontaneous combustion, causing damages to crops, woods, cultivated animals and related facilities 040100

Plant diseases and pests An outbreak of pathogenic microorganisms and pests, harming the farming and forestry 040200

Pandemic disease An epidemic of infectious disease caused by microorganisms or parasites that rapidly spreads through human or animal populations, usually resulting in a high morbidity or mortality. It causes great damages to animal husbandry and harms to human health and life safety 040300

Rodents An outbreak of rodent-related disasters, causing damages to plantation, animal husbandry, forestry and properties 040400

Weeds Weeds cause severe damages to plantation, animal husbandry, forestry, and human health 040500

Red tide A sudden increase or high concentration of aquatic planktons and microorganisms changing the water body color to red or brown. It disrupts the normal aquatic ecology and causes damages to human lives and properties and eco-environment 040600

Forest/grassland fire A fire in a forest or grassland caused by lightning, spontaneous combustion or human beings under combustible conditions. It causes damages to human lives and properties and eco-environment 049900

Other biological disasters Biological disasters that are not mentioned above 050000

Natural disasters induced by the damage to ecosystem or ecological imbalance, bringing out negative impacts on the harmony between human beings and nature and on the living environment of human beings (continued)

From the comparison between the classification of the Twelfth Five-Year Special Plan and that of the State Standards, it can be seen that they share the same five big groups of natural disasters, but the latter one has 15 more specific types than the former one.

Besides, an emergency incident is defined as "a natural disaster, accidental disaster, public health incident or social safety incident, which takes place by accident, has caused or might cause serious social damage and needs the adoption of emergency response measures" in Emergency Response Law of the People's Republic of China (2007).

There is no universal standard for the classification of disaster scale. Although there are different standards in different fields, the major factor considered is the scale of the hazardous event-induced disasters. Generally, the classification indicators include the number of casualties, the amount of property loss, disaster-affected area, and hazard intensity.

(1) Indicator system of UNISDR In the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030, there are seven disaster reduction indicators, four of which are related to the measuring of disasters, namely disaster mortality, disaster-affected people, direct disaster Mortality. Number of people killed or missing from a hazardous event. The death toll refers to the number of death population during or after the event, while the missing toll only refers to the total number of missing people during the event.

Besides counting the total number of dead and missing people, it is also important to calculate the percentage of killed and missing people per 100,000 people. Thus, the effect of population base can be eliminated in temporal and spatial comparison of mortality.

Affected people. It refers to the total population that are affected directly or indirectly by disasters. Directly affected people are those whose health was affected, such as injured and sick people, and those evacuated, displaced or relocated, and those who suffered from the disaster-induced direct damages to livelihoods, infrastructure, social culture, environment, and properties. At the same time, disaster statistics also need to include people whose houses were destroyed or collapsed and people who receive food aid.

Indirectly affected population are those suffered from the additive effects of disasters, namely people affected by disaster-induced disruption or modification of economy, critical facilities, basic services, business, work, society, and health.

In practice, due to the difficulty in counting indirectly affected population, only directly affected population are included in the disaster statistics. Likewise, it is also worth calculating the percentage of affected people per 100,000 people.

In addition to counting the killed and missing people and affected people, it is also common to specify their ages, genders, residence addresses, and disabilities.

Direct economic loss. Direct economic loss refers to disaster-induced loss of materials or properties, such as houses, factories, and infrastructures. Usually after the occurrence of a disaster, it is advised to assess the property loss as soon as possible to facilitate the cost estimation for disaster recovery and insurance claims processing. It is also recommended to calculate the percentage of direct economic loss accounting for the global or national gross domestic product (GDP).

Direct economic loss can be further divided into agriculture loss, loss of industrial and commercial facilities, houses, critical infrastructure damaged or destroyed by disasters.

Direct agriculture loss: It refers to crop and livestock losses and also includes the losses of poultry, fishery, and forestry.

Industrial facilities damaged or destroyed: It refers to the loss of manufacturing and industrial facilities damaged or destroyed by hazardous events.

Commercial facilities damaged or destroyed: It refers to the loss of commercial facilities (including storage, warehouse, cargo terminal, etc.) that are damaged or destroyed by hazardous events.

Houses damaged: It refers to the loss of houses slightly affected by hazardous events and subject to no structural or architectural damages. After repair or cleanup, these damaged houses can still be habitable.

Houses destroyed: It refers to the loss of houses that collapsed or were burnt, washed away, and severely damaged and are no longer suitable for long-term habitation.

Critical infrastructure damaged or destroyed: It refers to the loss of educational and health facilities, and roads damaged or destroyed by hazardous events.

Educational facilities damaged or destroyed: It refers to the number of educational facilities damaged or destroyed by hazardous events. Educational facilities include children's playroom, kindergarten, elementary school, high school (junior and senior), vocational school, college, university, training center, adult education school, military school, and prison school.

Health facilities damaged or destroyed: It refers to the number of health facilities damaged or destroyed by hazardous events. Health facilities include health centers, clinics, local or regional hospitals, outpatient centers, and facilities that provide basic health services.

Roads damaged or destroyed: It refers to the length of road networks in kilometers that are damaged or destroyed by hazardous events.

Infrastructure damaged or destroyed: It refers to the loss of infrastructures other than the critical infrastructures, such as railways, ports, airports.

Railways damaged or destroyed: It refers to the length of railway networks in kilometers that are damaged or destroyed by hazardous events.

Ports damaged or destroyed: It refers to the number of ports that are damaged or destroyed by hazardous events.

Airports damaged or destroyed: It refers to the number of airports that are damaged or destroyed by hazardous events.

Basic services. Basic services refers to the disruption of public services or time loss due to low-quality services, which are caused by hazardous events. Basic services include health facilities, educational facilities, transportation system (including train and bus terminals), ICT system, water supply, solid waste management, power supply system, emergency responses, etc.

The health facilities, educational facilities, transportation system are mentioned above in the critical infrastructure loss and infrastructure loss sections.

ICT system refers to communications and the associated equipment network, including radio and TV stations, post offices, public information offices, Internet, landline and mobile telephones.

Water supply includes drinking water supply and sewerage systems. Drinking water supply system includes drainage system, water processing facilities, water transporting channels (channels and aqueducts) and canals, water tank, or tower.

Sewerage system includes public sanitary facilities, sewerage treatment system, collection and treatment of solid wastes from public sanitation.

Solid waste management refers to collection and treatment of solid wastes that are not from public sanitation. Power/energy system includes power facilities, electrical substations, power control centers, and other power services.

Emergency response includes disaster management offices, fire departments, police stations, military, and emergency control centers.

(2) Indicator system of statistical system of damages and losses of large-scale natural disasters in China

The Ministry of Civil Affairs and National Bureau of Statistics of China jointly introduced the regulation Statistical System of Damages and Losses of Large-scale Natural Disasters in 2013, which brought the comprehensive assessment of natural disaster loss into the regulation system (Shi and Yuan 2014) . This Statistical System explains the purpose and meaning of statistics of large-scale disasters and defines the statistical scope and major indicators. Other contents described in this regulation include the submission procedure, forms of organization and data collection, 26 loss statistical report forms (1 of which is the loss summary table), 1 basic report, and 738 indicators. Some examples of these indicators are affected people, houses damaged and destroyed, household property loss, agriculture loss, industry loss, service loss, infrastructure loss, loss of public service system, resources and environmental loss, and so on (Table 1.8) . Figure 1 .5 shows the changes in the percentage of direct economic loss accounting for GDP and human mortality caused by disasters in China (1990 China ( -2012 which Wenchuan earthquake data are not included). The overall decreasing trends of the two items demonstrate a good result of comprehensive disaster reduction.

Compared to the disaster indicators in Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 that incorporates both the human-made and natural disasters, the Statistical System can only be applied to natural disasters. In contrast to the emphasis of the latter one on the comprehensiveness, the former one only highlights the key points. Another difference between these two is that the latter one includes Report of rural residential houses damaged and destroyed B02

Report of urban residential houses damaged and destroyed B03

Report of non-residential houses damaged and destroyed C01

Report of household property loss D01

Report of agriculture loss E01

Report of industry loss F01

Report of service loss G01

Report of infrastructure (transportation) loss G02

Report of infrastructure (communications) loss G03

Report of infrastructure (energy) loss G04

Report of infrastructure (water conservancy) loss Amount of materials damaged and destroyed G05

Report of infrastructure (municipal service) loss

Economic loss G06 Report of infrastructure (living facilities in rural area) loss G07

Report of infrastructure (geological hazard prevention) loss H01

Report of public service (educational system) loss H02

Report of public service (technology system) loss H03

Report of public service (health system) loss H04

Report of public service (culture system) loss H05

Report of public service (media system) loss H06

Report of public service (sports system) loss H07

Report of public service (social security and service system) loss H08

Report of public service (social management system) loss H09

Report of public service (cultural heritage system) loss

Report of resources and environmental loss Amount of materials damaged and destroyed J01

Report of basic indicators the resources and environmental damages caused by natural disasters, while the former one stresses on the effectiveness and quality losses of infrastructure and services caused by disasters. Therefore, there are similarities in the disaster indicators of these two regulations, and there are also differences due to social and cultural differences. Even though some indicators share the same name in two systems, the actual meanings might be different. In practice, people need to be cautious in choosing the right indicator(s). At present, the classification of disaster grade mainly adopts the standardized division method of disaster risk factors of each disaster, while there is no standard division for multi-hazard classification. The qualitative approach is usually used to classify disaster intensity levels, that is, the use of continuous quantitative or semiquantitative indicators, such as Applied Multi-Risk Mapping of Natural Hazards for Impact Assessment (ARMONIA) that categorizes a disaster into high, medium, or low level according to its intensity. Another example is hazard score proposed by Odeh Engineers Inc. (2001) that takes into account the level, frequency, and percentage of the affected area in the total research area. A higher score means the hazard has a higher intensity. The world natural disaster hotspots identified by the World Bank are based on 2.5°Â 2.5°grid cells for risk assessment. In each grid cell, the hazard indexes of all types of hazards occurred are summed to give a score for the determination of hotspots. The hazard index of each type of hazard is established according to the corresponding data.

The term very large-scale disaster emerged in the beginning of the twenty-first century.

At the end of the twentieth century, a series of disasters happened worldwide and caused great impacts on the human society and economy. For example, Hurricane Andrew occurred in USA in 1992 claimed 65 lives and caused 26-billion-dollar Definition of Very Large-scale Disaster. The Chinese word "juzai" appeared in 1986 in China for the first time and was used to mistranslate the word "Catastrophic disaster" in the Western literatures. The appearance of "juzai" in Chinese media and academia is closely related to the founding and explanation of the catastrophic disaster insurance funds. According to the statistical data from cnki.com.cn, as of the end of December 2011, there were up to 1359 literatures that include "juzai" in the titles. And the number of papers increased annually with the peak of 504 publications in the year 2008. More than half of these 504 papers are related to the catastrophic disaster insurance. Due to the frequent occurrences of very large-scale disasters in recent years, the new words such as "juzai prevention," "juzai relief," and "juzai assessment" are becoming more and more widely used in scientific publications.

In the Chinese academic literatures, it is the author of this book that first introduced the word "dazai" for "large-scale disaster" and "juzai" for "very large-scale disaster" in the Western literatures after attending the High Level Advisory Board Seminar of Financial Management of Large-scale Catastrophes held by OECD in Paris in the July 2006 (Shi et al. 2006 (Shi et al. , 2007 .

Although a lot of work has been done in the definition and classification of very large-scale disasters, there are no well-recognized definition and classification standards of very large-scale disasters in the fields of academia or finance. Different scholars have their own angles.

In Western literatures, the following definitions have great influences. In the book Large-Scale Disasters-Lessons Learned published by OECD in 2004, the terms large-scale disasters (or Megadisasters) and very large-scale disasters were used, but the specific quantitative criterion was not provided. In OECD's opinion, very large-scale disasters can cause a great number of casualties, property losses, and widespread infrastructure damage. The impacts are so great that governments of the affected area and neighboring regions become unable to cope with; even public panic occurs. OECD also emphasizes the importance of cooperation and assistance among the member countries in response to the very large-scale disasters (OECD 2004) .

In the book Large-scale Disaster-Prediction, Control, Reduction by Mohamed Gad-el-Hak (2008), disasters are divided into large-scale and very large-scale disasters based upon the disaster scope and death toll ( Fig. 1.6) . A very large-scale disaster is defined as a disaster with the death toll more than 10,000 or the affected area over 1000 km 2 .

The definition of catastrophic disaster is usually based on the scale of the insured property losses by experts on insurance and financial management and development. The Insurance Services Office (ISO) of USA defines a catastrophic disaster as an event that causes insured property losses of 25 million dollars or more and affects a significant number of property/casualty policyholders and insurers. Swiss Re uses losses more than 38.7 million US dollars as a standard. From the amount of property losses, it can be seen that the scale of a catastrophic disaster cannot reach that of a large-scale disaster or megadisaster, let alone a very large-scale disaster. This also shows that the term "juzai" mentioned in the Chinese literatures in the late 1980s has a scale of the catastrophic disaster and was only paid attention to by experts on insurance and financial management and development. Therefore, before the use of large-scale disasters or megadisasters and very large-scale disasters in the Western literatures in the early twenty-first century, the term "juzai" in the Chinese literatures only refers to a catastrophic disaster.

From the angle of geoscientists, very large-scale disasters are usually defined according to the hazard intensity, casualties, property losses, and affected scope. A very large-scale disaster in Ma's opinion must reach two of the following criteria: over 10,000 deaths, direct economic losses of more than 10 billion Chinese yuan of 1990, economic losses of more than the average annual fiscal revenue of the previous three years of a Chinese province, drought disaster rate more than 70%, or flood disaster rate more than 70%, crop losses of more than 36% of the average annual crop production of the previous three years of a Chinese province, more than 300,000 houses collapsed, and livestock death toll of more than 1 million (Ma et al. 1994 ). Shi et al. defines a very large-scale disaster as a great disaster caused by a 100-year hazard (e.g., a 7.0-magnitude or stronger earthquake) and resulting in a great number of casualties and large and widespread property losses (Shi et al. 2010) . Also in Shi's definition, the impacts of a very large-scale disaster are so great that the affected area is unable to respond by itself and has to resort to outside help (Table 1 .9). According to the classification standard in Table 1 .9, the very large-scale disasters caused by natural hazards worldwide between 1990 and 2015 are listed in Table 1 .10.

From Table 1 .10, we can see that one of the characteristics of the very large-scale disasters is the big hazard intensity. A very large-scale disaster can be a disaster chain composed of a very large hazard and its induced secondary disasters. It can also be a superposition of multiple types of disasters that are triggered by multiple hazards in a specific region and during a specific period of time. Besides, very large-scale disasters usually cause a great number of deaths and injuries, a huge amount of property losses, severe impacts on economy, society and natural Large-scale 6.5-7.0 (earthquake) or 1/50a-1/100a 1000-9999

10.0-99.9 10,000-99,999 Medium-scale 6.0-6.5 (earthquake) or 1/10a-1/50a 100-999 1.0-9.9 1000-9999 Small-scale Below 6.0 (earthquake) or below 1/10a 99 1.0 1000

Note (1) For each disaster level, at least two of the four criteria must be met.

(2) Death toll includes both the people dead and people missing over 1 month. (3) Direct economic loss is the value of actual disaster-caused property loss of the year. (4) The affected area is the area where there are casualties, property losses, or damages to ecosystems Approx. 14 environment, and a large disaster area. The emergency aids and reconstruction when or after the occurrence of the very large-scale disasters usually need help from a larger region or the whole country. In some cases, even international aids are indispensable.

All the very large-scale disasters mentioned so far are caused by sudden hazards. The indicators and classification standards for disasters caused by the accumulation of gradual hazards should be different (Zhang et al. 2013) .

However, there are few discussions about the classification standards of gradually generated very large-scale disasters. Drought is one of the major natural disasters in both China and the world. Since 1949, a number of severe droughts causing great number of casualties and huge property losses have happened in China. For example, more than tens of thousands of people were killed due to the three-year great drought from 1959 to 1961. Based on the case of drought, we will discuss the classification standard of gradual very large-scale disasters below.

We cannot use hazard intensity to measure or to classify very large-scale droughts. This is because the forming process of a drought is very complicated. A drought hazard could be meteorological, or hydrological. It can also be soil drought or socioeconomic drought. The indicators and measurement criteria vary among different types of droughts. The data and studying methods are also different. What's more, there is no linear relationship between the drought intensity and drought losses. And there is no definite relationship between the drought hazards and the formation of drought disasters neither.

The impacts of a very large-scale drought disaster can be represented in crop losses and population in need of aids. Drought could result in a bad harvest or total crop failure and water shortage for both human beings and livestock. Industrial production, urban water supply, and ecological environment could also be affected to varying degrees if a drought lasts for a long time. In the Statistical System of Damages and Losses of Natural Disasters by PRC Ministry of Civil Affairs (2013), the following items are included in the statistics of droughts: affected population, population affected by water shortage, number of livestock affected by water shortage, affected crop area, crop disaster area, total crop failure area, affected grassland area, and population in need of food and water aids. The inclusion of population affected by water shortage and population in need of aids in this Statistical System demonstrates the "people-oriented" disaster relief philosophy. In the State-level Contingency Plan for Natural Disaster Relief by General Office of the State Council of PRC, it is mentioned that when the number of people in need of food and water aids from governments accounts for a certain percentage of the agricultural population or reaches a designated magnitude, the state will initiate emergency response of the corresponding level (Table 1 .11).

Based on the severe droughts in China in Table 1 .11, five criteria are used to define very large-scale drought disaster, crop disaster ratio, crop disaster area, disaster population, population in need of aids ratio, and direct economic loss (Table 1.12). (2) Indicator explanation. Affected crop area is the crop area that has a reduction of more than 10% of production.

Crop disaster area is the crop area that has a reduction of more than 30% of production. Crop disaster ratio is the ratio of crop disaster area over affected crop area. Population affected is the number of people who suffer from losses caused by natural disasters (including non-permanent residents). Disaster population is the population that are affected by the crop disaster. In this table, it is estimated from the crop disaster area and the cultivated area per capita in the disaster province. Population in need of aids is the number of people who are directly affected by natural disasters and are in need of food and water supply or medical treatment from the government (including non-permanent residents). Population in need of aids ratio is the ratio of population in need of aids to the population affected. Direct economic loss is the value of depreciated of the disaster-bearing bodies or the value of the disaster-bearing bodies forfeited. In this table, it is the value of actual property damages of the year when the disaster happened. (3) The disaster population in events 1-11 was estimated from the crop disaster area and the cultivated area per capita in the disaster province. Forum are fiscal crises in key economies, structurally high unemployment/ underemployment, water crises, severe income disparity, failure of climate change mitigation and adaptation, greater incidence of extreme weather events (e.g., floods, storms, fires), global governance failure, food crises, failure of a major financial mechanism/institution, and profound political and social instability. It can be seen from the above that, besides the continuing focus on the traditional risks, we need to accelerate the study of response to a series of non-traditional risks.

The five categories of risks were not changed in the Global Risk Report 2016, but the number of specific risks was decreased from 31 to 29 (Global Risk 2016). In this report, a global risk is an uncertain event or condition, if occurring, which can cause significant negative impact for several countries or industries within the next 10 years. A global trend is a long-term pattern that is currently taking place and that could contribute to amplifying global risks and/or altering the relationship between them (Table 1 .14).

The Global Risks Landscape 2016 was proposed in the Global Risk Report 2016. From the landscape, it can be seen that the risks with the highest impact and likelihood are failure of climate change mitigation and adaptation, water crises, large-scale involuntary migration, fiscal crises, interstate conflict, profound social instability, cyber attacks, and unemployment or underemployment (Global Risk 2016). In the Global Risks Interconnections Map 2016, the most strongly connected risks are failure of climate change mitigation and adaptation, profound social instability, large-scale involuntary migration, and unemployment or underemployment (Global Risk 2016). The Davos World Economic Forum Reports involve a wide range of global risks covering the fields of economy, politics, culture, society, and ecology and could be corresponding to the economic development, political development, cultural development, social development, and ecological development proposed by the Chinese government, respectively. Thus, it can be seen that the risk classification of the World Economic Forum emphasizes the combination with practice.

The risk taxonomy of IRGC is from the perspective of hazards, similar to the disaster classification in Sect. 1.2. This classification stresses on the causes of risks and thus lacks in combination with practice. However, it pays attention to emerging risks and slow-developing catastrophic risks, including the governance of very large-scale disaster risks. At the same time, it provides the framework for systematic risk assessment and governance.

In China, the classification of risks is tightly associated with the security and disaster classifications. For example, the overall national security concept proposed by the Chinese government is in a one-to-one correspondence with the global risks in the World Economic Forum Report. In detail, the political security, homeland security, and military security correspond to geopolitical risks; economic and resource security to economic risks; cultural and societal security to societal risks; technology, information, and nuclear security to technological risks; ecological security to environmental risks (Xi 2016) . Another example is the four public securities proposed by the Chinese government corresponding to five of the six risk categories of IRGC, that is, natural disaster of the former corresponds to the natural forces of the latter, accidental disasters to physical risks, public health accidents to chemical and biological risks, and social security incidents to social-communicative hazards. The complex hazards are usually related to the four public securities proposed by the Chinese government, and also to the integrated disasters.

The classification system of risks is built upon the hazard and disaster classifications in China. For example, if hazards are divided into natural, man-made, and environmental ones, risks can be classified into the corresponding three types. In the same way, risks can also be divided into four categories of natural, accidental, public health, and social security ones based on the four-type classification of hazards.

The natural disaster risk level is usually expressed in exceedance probability or return period, the same way as the intensity level of natural hazards. For example, the meteorological, hydrological, and ocean disaster risks can be divided into 10-year level (small-scale disaster), 20-year level (medium-scale disaster), 50-year level (large-scale disaster), and 100-year level (very large-scale disaster). The earthquake disaster risk level is usually expressed in earthquake magnitude. For example, a magnitude 7.0 or above earthquake poses a very large-scale disaster risk, 6.5-7.0 large-scale, 6.0-6.5 medium-scale, and 6.0 or below small-scale disaster risks. The natural disaster risk level does not only depend on the natural hazard intensity but also count on the vulnerability and exposure of the hazard-bearing bodies. In practice, the classification of natural disaster risk levels is even more complicated and thus usually resorts to the relative levels such as the first-level risk, the second-level risk, the third-level risk, the fourth-level risk, and the fifth-level risk. The larger the number is, the higher the risk level is. In the Atlas of Natural Disaster Risk of China by Peijun Shi (Chinese-English bilingual version, Shi 2011) and the World Atlas of Natural Disaster Risk by Peijun Shi and Roger Kasperson 1.3 Risks (Shi et al. 2015) , the temporal and spatial patterns of natural disaster risks of China and the world are displayed by using indicators including risks, risk grades, and risk levels (Qin et al. 2015; Shi 2011 Shi , 2015 .

It is more difficult to classify man-made and environmental risk levels by using quantitative criteria. A common way is to use relative level, or using the trends and changes of man-made and environmental risks to describe their levels. The Global Risk Trends 2015 in the Davos World Economic Forum Risk Report is an example of this kind of way of reflecting global risk levels. In detail, increasing global risk levels at 2015 are aging population, changing landscape of international governance, climate change, environmental degradation, growing middle class in emerging economies, increasing national sentiment, increasing polarization of societies, rise of chronic diseases, rise of cyber dependency, rising geographic mobility, rising incoming and wealth disparity, shifts in power, and urbanization (WEF 2015) .

The top three most likely global risks in 2016 in each region are reported in the Global Risk Report 2016 of WEF (WEF 2015) . In North America, the top three are cyber attacks, extreme weather events, and data fraud or theft. In Latin America and the Caribbean, the top three are failure of national governance, profound social instability, and unemployment/underemployment. In Europe, the three are large-scale involuntary migration, unemployment/underemployment, and fiscal crisis. In the Middle East and North Africa, they are water crises, unemployment/ underemployment, failure of national governance, and profound social instability. In sub-Saharan Africa, they are failure of national governance, unemployment/ underemployment, and failure of critical infrastructure. In Central Asia (including Russia), they are energy price shock, interstate conflict, and failure of national governance. In East Asia and the Pacific, they are natural catastrophes, extreme weather events, and failure of national governance. In South Asia, the top three are water crises, unemployment/underemployment, and extreme weather events.

The exceedance probability mentioned previously, a concept usually used in the study of natural disaster risks, refers to the likelihood of the intensity or motion parameters of an earthquake, or the flood level, or the maximum wind speed at the center of a typhoon exceeding a designated value or values in a specific location and during a certain period of time. In other words, it is the probability of the required value exceeding the given value and can be mathematically expressed as

where P exceed is the likelihood of the required value (u) of a data series exceeding the limit value (u limit ). For example, a set of data X (x 1 , x 2 ,…x n ) have n raw data points that are arranged from the lowest to the highest. The exceedance probability of data point x i is P ¼ n À i þ 1 n  100% ð1:6Þ

The following takes the earthquake as an example for the calculation of exceedance probability.

Within t years, the probability of earthquake occurrence for n times P(n) in a region is P n ð Þ ¼ F n ð Þ ð1:7Þ

In the same way, within t years, the likelihood of no earthquake happening in this region is

Then, the likelihood of at least one earthquake within t years, or the exceedance probability, is

The probability density is

Poisson distribution is widely used in earthquake studies. Within t years, the probability P(n) of n earthquakes occurring in a region can be expressed in the Poisson distribution form as below: P n ð Þ ¼ e Àu  vt n n! ð1:11Þ

Then, within t years, the likelihood of no earthquake happening in this region is P 0 ð Þ ¼ e Àvt  vt 0 0! ¼ e Àvt ð1:12Þ

So the likelihood of at least one earthquake happening or the exceedance probability within t years is F t ð Þ ¼ 1 À P 0 ð Þ ¼ 1 À e Àvt ð1:13Þ

The corresponding probability density is

:14Þ

The variable v mentioned above is the annually averaged occurrence probability of earthquake in a region, which has an inverse relationship with the return period T 0 :

From here, we can see that the relationship between the return period T 0 and the exceedance probability F(t) can be expressed as

Based on the equation above, we can calculate the return periods of different exceedance probabilities for a period of time.

For example, the exceedance probability of 63% for 50 years is equivalent to a 50-year disaster, 10% means a 474-year disaster, and 2-3% means a 1600-2500-year disaster.

In summary, hazards are negative factors to human beings, and the temporal and spatial patterns of hazards can be studied by comparing with historical observed data. Disasters are the impacts of hazards on human beings and can be measured in terms of losses and damages. Risks are future hazard-induced disasters in a specific location. In short, disaster risk science is a discipline studying the mechanics, processes, and dynamics of the interactions among hazards, disasters, and risks, as well as disaster risk prevention and reduction. The relationships among hazards, disasters, and risks are shown in Fig. 1.7 . 

Greater incidence of man-made environmental catastrophes (e.g., oil spills

Failure of climate change mitigation and adaptation Geopolitical 1. Global governance failure 2. Political collapse of a nation of geopolitical importance 3. Increasing corruption 4. Major escalation in organized crime and illicit trade 5. Large-scale terrorist attacks 6. Deployment of weapons of mass destruction 7. Violent interstate conflict with regional consequences 8. Escalation of economic and resource nationalization (continued) and sabotage • Human violence (criminal activities) • Humiliation, mobbing

Consumer products (chemical, physical, etc

• Technologies (physical, chemical

• Large constructions, like buildings, dams, highways, and bridges • Critical infrastructures, in terms of physical, economic, social-organizational and communicative

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Risk is the probability of disaster loss in a future period of time in a region, or the future disaster. Essentially, risk is the probability of occurrence of a future hazardous event and its impacts (loss and/or damage). UNISDR (2004) defines risk as the probability of harmful consequences resulting from interactions between natural or human-induced hazards and vulnerable conditions. Two aspects that need special attention are the influence of social factors on risk and the estimation of hazard intensity and distribution.Disaster risk usually refers to natural disaster or environmental risk that is associated with natural factors. The wide attention which disaster risk receives is related to the disaster (especially catastrophic disaster) insurance and the risk governance of emerging risks and very large-scale disasters.The International Risk Governance Council, founded in 2003 in Geneva, Switzerland, paid high attention to the governance of emerging risk and slow-developing catastrophic risks and also established the transition from risk management to risk governance.In 2006, Chinese National Committee for the International Human Dimensions Program on Global Environmental Change (CNC-IHDP) proposed to IHDP to undertake the Integrated Risk Governance (IRG) research under the background of global environmental change. This international scientific program proposal was approved by the scientific committee of IHDP and launched in 2010 (Shi et al.