cord-000757-bz66g9a0	2012	Therefore, the purpose of this study was to demonstrate the feasibility of using a pipeline, composed of a detection rule and a natural language processor, for the real time encoding of death certificates using the identification of pneumonia and influenza cases as an example and demonstrating that its accuracy is comparable to existing methods. Other research groups [18, 19] have demonstrated the feasibility of using mortality data for real time surveillance but all used "free text" search for the string "pneumonia", "flu" or "influenza." As noted earlier, although this method can provide the semi quantitative measurements for disease surveillance purposes, keyword searches can also result in an array of problems that result from complexities of human language such as causal relationships and synonyms [20] . Although, the focus of this study was to use NLP techniques to process death certificates, the description of this system reported in the literature did not show how well coded data from an NLP tool along with predefined rules can detect countable cases for a specific disease or condition.
cord-006664-ykfvbypo	2001	RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Apoptotic cell death is a key element in the pathogenesis and progression of ischaemia-reperfusion (IR) injury, cardiac failure, myocardial infarction, atherosclerosis, endothelial dysfunction and the clinical syndromes which these situations produce. Experimental and autopsy studies have confirmed that cardiomyocytes undergo cell death by apoptosis as a component of hypoxia,43 IR,14 heart failure 15, 16, 44, 117, 119 and myocardial infarction.l$ Following on from this work, the traditional viewpoint of heart failure as a purely haemodynamic continuum has been modified by an increasing awareness of the fact that the interaction of cytokines, neurohormones and apoptotic mediators play a significant role in the evolution and progression of this disease process."° As the myocardium has no regenerative capacity, prevention of apoptosis-induced cardiomyocyte loss has potentially significant clinical implications.
cord-015651-yhi83hgq	2014	One of main conclusions has been that they have not so far undergone the healthier life style changes that have occurred in Western Europe, and this has resulted in a "reversed epidemiological transition", in which an elevated burden of cardiovascular diseases dominates the pattern of mortality (Vallin and Meslé 2004) . In this paper I shall review recent developments in epidemiological transition theory, and test the applicability of some of these theories to the evolution of cause-and education-specific mortality inequalities in Hungary between 1971 and 2008. Omran, starting from his very first publication, continuously mentioned social disparities in mortality as well as the driving forces listed above but he did not provide a theoretical framework for the application of these in connection with particular mortality or disease patterns specific for single countries or population sub-groups.
cord-016536-8wfyaxcb	2012	The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimate that only about 10% of premature deaths in the United States can be attributed to inadequate access to medical care, while the remaining 90% can be accounted for by individual lifestyle and behaviors (50%), genetic profi les (20%), and social and environmental conditions (20%) (CDC 1979 ) . In summation, international trade and fi nance, infectious disease epidemics, global warming and climate change, population mobility, and natural disasters and terrorism signifi cantly affect the United States health care delivery and policymaking systems. Research demonstrates that most of the deaths in the country are attributable to a small number of largely controllable behaviors and exposures, or due to factors that fall under the preventive, social, economic, environmental, and lifestyle and behavioral determinants of health. But even though most of the deaths in the country are the result of social, cultural, economic, environmental, and global factors, medical care is also an important determinant of health that cannot be ignored.
cord-016557-f2mzwhrt	2006	Out of the 18 deaths caused by pesticides reported by the 2002 AAPCC annual report (15) , two were the result of paraquat poisoning. Teare (46) reported a case of paraquat poisoning (a 44-year-old man dying of suicidal ingestion of paraquat after 17 days of illness), with the left lung weighing 1980 g and the right lung weighing 1920 g. Metaldehyde is a popular molluscicide that can cause fatal poisoning; the 2002 AAPCC annual report (15) mentions as many as 199 cases of exposure to this agent. According to Harry (4) , accidental pesticide intoxications are mainly caused by ingestions of diluted fertilizers, low-concentration antivitamin K rodenticides, ant-killing products, or granules of molluscicides containing 5% metaldehyde, whereas voluntary intoxications are mostly by chloralose, strychnine, organophosphorus or organochlorine insecticides, concentrated antivitamin K products, and herbicides, such as paraquat, chlorophenoxy compounds, glyphosate, and chlorates.
cord-017248-a37t31u1	2010	Possible Associated Conditions: Disseminated intravascular coagulation;* eclampsia;* glucose-6-phosphatase deficiency (G6PD); hemolytic uremic syndrome;* malignant hypertension; lymphoma* and other malignancies; paroxysmal nocturnal hemo-globinuria; sickle cell disease;*thalassemia;* thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura.* (See also below under "NOTE.") NOTE: Hemolysis also may be caused by conditions such as poisoning with chemicals or drugs, heat injury, snake bite,* or infections or may develop as a transfusion reaction* or be secondary to adenocarcinoma, heart valve prostheses (see below), liver disease (see below), renal disease, or congenital erythropoietic porphyria. Unusual under-lying or associated conditions include chronic aortic stenosis or regurgitation; coronary artery anomalies; coronary artery dissection; coronary embolism; coronary ostial stenosis (due to calcification of aortic sinotubular junction or, rarely, to syphilitic aortitis); coronary vasculitis (for instance, in polyarteritis nodosa* or acute hypersensitivity arteritis); hyperthyroidism,* gastrointestinal hemorrhage; * hypothyroidism, * idiopathic arterial calcification of infancy; intramural coronary amyloidosis; pheochromocytoma, polycythemia vera; * pseudoxanthoma elasticum,* radiationinduced coronary stenosis; severe pulmonary hypertension (with right ventricular ischemia); sickle cell disease;* and others.
cord-018486-lamfknpt	2014	Much of this chapter will focus on natural disease processes and pathologic conditions that can present as sudden death while a child or adolescent is involved in physical activity. In many cases, sudden death may be the result of physical stress superimposed upon a natural disease process or pathologic condition, often involving the heart. Anabolic steroid use can result in peliosis of the liver, psychiatric instability, cardiomyopathy, and death Fig. 26 .1 Fat and bone marrow elements may embolize from fracture sites to the lungs. Cardiac disease is the leading cause of sudden death in athletes engaged in sports and strenuous activities. It may be focal, and multiple heart sections should be examined if there is no apparent cause of death in an athlete following autopsy (Hematoxylin and Eosin, H&E Â 100) be distinguished from hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, discussed above.
cord-018585-hrl5ywth	2014	Topics covered include deaths associated with motorized and nonmotorized vehicles including pedestrian, occupant, and operator fatalities; farming and ranching deaths; drowning, boating, and diving deaths; fires and burns, including electrical deaths; animal-related deaths; falls; and airway-associated deaths. Each year in the United States (USA), about 1,400 children under the age of 14 years are fatally injured while passengers in motor vehicles, and another 200,000 sustain injuries, many of which significantly impair the child''s quality of life (Department of Transportation (US), National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) 2009). Pedestrian accidental deaths are more common in males and in children from minority groups, particularly in lower socioeconomic areas (American Academy of Pediatrics Committee Injury, Violence, and Poison Prevention 2009). Infants'' and young children''s skin is more susceptible to thermal and scalding injury (Diller 2006) , and burns can occur within 3 seconds with water temperatures 140 F (60 C) or higher (Feldman et al.
cord-018752-7jmnwpq6	2016	Mass fatality management preparedness planning is paramount in any influenza pandemic preparedness plan if business continuity is to be expediently achieved, and survivor grief and psychological trauma can be mitigated through the honourable and respectful handling of the remains of the dead. This chapter aims to rectify the oversight in pandemic preparedness plans by presenting a compendium of guidelines and recommendations by international health organisations; pandemic fatality experts; and experienced mass death management professionals. This chapter aims to rectify the oversight in pandemic preparedness plans by presenting a compendium of guidelines and recommendations by international health organisations; pandemic fatality experts; and experienced mass death management professionals. Mass fatality is defined as an event where the number of the dead exceeds available local capacities for appropriate management of human remains (Morgan 2006; Ralph 2015) .
cord-020757-q4ivezyq	2010	The extrinsic pathway involves binding of death ligands such as tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), CD95 ligand (Fas ligand), and TNF-related apoptosis-inducing ligand (TRAIL) to their cognate cell surface receptors TNFR1, CD95/Fas, TRAIL-R1, TRAIL-R2, and the DR series of receptors, 29 resulting in the activation of initiator caspase-8 (also known as FADD-homologous ICE/CED-3-like protease or FLICE) and subsequent activation of effector caspase-3 ( Figure 4 .2). In cytotoxic T lymphocyte-induced death, granzyme B, which enters the cell through membrane channels formed by the protein perforin, activates caspases by cleaving them directly or indirectly. Intracellular Pathways: Lack of survival stimuli (withdrawal of growth factor, hypoxia, genotoxic substances, etc.) is thought to generate apoptotic signals through ill-defi ned mechanisms, which lead to translocation of proapoptotic proteins such as Bax to the outer mitochondrial membrane. For example, agents that damage DNA, such as ionizing radiation and certain xenobiotics, lead to activation of p53-mediated mechanisms that commit cells to apoptosis, at least in part through transcriptional upregulation of proapoptotic proteins.
cord-021399-gs3i7wbe	2005	Despite the advances in the diagnosis and treatment of infectious diseases, a substantial number of sudden and unexpected deaths are caused by infections. Forensic pathologists should be aware of the importance of infectious causes of sudden death in the present era of bioterrorism and emergent and reemergent diseases. Sudden death due to infectious disease may be classified by organ system involvement (e.g., cardiac -myocarditis; nervous system -meningitis and encephalitis) or according to the etiological agent (e.g., viral, chlamydial, bacterial, fungal, protozoal, or helminthic) . The common infectious causes of sudden death by organ system are listed in Table 1 . Viral infections causing sudden death usually involve the cardiac, respiratory, or the central nervous system. Bacterial infections of the respiratory system Sudden death from acute epiglottitis occurs from respiratory obstruction caused by swelling of the epiglottic folds, uvula, and vocal cords.
cord-023355-yi2bh0js	2008	30 Initiation of this pathway eventually results in the release of pro-apoptotic proteins from the mitochondria that will activate caspase enzymes and trigger apoptosis. [49] [50] [51] [52] The success of the pathway in inducing apoptosis depends on the balance of activity between pro-apoptotic and anti-apoptotic members of the B-cell lymphoma-2 (Bcl-2) superfamily of proteins (Table 1) . 25, 69 In addition, the mitochondrial pathway pro-apoptotic Bcl-2 family protein, Bak, has been implicated in causing ER depletion of calcium, which can induce caspase-12 activation 70 (Table 1) . Mitochondrial factors: Increased mitochondrial outer membrane permeability can result in the release of mitochondrial pro-death substances in addition to cytochrome c, such as apoptosis inducing factor, 67 Smac/ DIABLO 80-82 (Second Mitochondrial-derived Activator of Caspases/Direct Inhibitor of Apoptosis-Binding protein with LOw pI), endonuclease G, HtrA2/Omi, and several procaspases 83 (eg, procaspase-2, -3, and -9).
cord-027578-yapmcvps	2020	Fear of death has recently been shown to predict not only anxiety related to COVID-19, but also to play a causal role in various mental health conditions. The findings revealed a significant positive correlation between death anxiety and anxious beliefs and behaviours related to COVID-19 (e.g. estimated likelihood of contracting the virus, estimated likelihood of wearing a mask in public, etc.), in addition to self-reported health anxiety, and overall psychological distress. Results from numerous studies appear to suggest that fear of death is indeed a transdiagnostic construct driving a number of mental health conditions, although further research using treatment-seeking and clinical samples is clearly warranted. In addition to predicting anxiety related to COVID-19 (Newton-John et al., 2020) , fear of death has also been shown to play a causal role across a number of mental health conditions (Menzies and Dar-Nimrod, 2017; Strachan et al., 2007) .
cord-028337-md9om47x	2020	Patients with ARDS more often had pulmonary dysfunction as the primary cause of death (28% vs 19%; p = 0.04) and were also more likely to die while requiring significant respiratory support (82% vs 64%; p < 0.01). Specifically, two critical-care trained physicians reviewed each AHRF hospitalization to determine whether patients met Berlin Criteria [15, 16] for ARDS: (1) new or worsening respiratory symptoms began within 1 week of a known clinical insult, (2) PaO 2 /FIO 2 ≤ 300 while receiving a positive end-expiratory pressure ≥ 5 cm H 2 O, (3) bilateral opacities on chest x-ray, (4) unlikely to be cardiogenic pulmonary edema, and (5) no other explanation for these findings. In this contemporary cohort study of 385 patients who died after AHRF, the most common primary causes of death were sepsis and pulmonary dysfunction.
cord-031409-7cs1z6x6	2020	Drawing on earlier work, this paper develops the notion of a ''maternal death drive'' that supplements Freud''s death drive by accounting for repetition that retains a relation to the developmental time of ''life'' but remains ''otherwise'' to a life drive. The temporal form of this ''life in death'' is that of ''dynamic chronicity'', analogous to late modern narratives that describe the present as ''thin'' and the time of human futurity as running out. The maternal (death drive) alerts us to a new figure of a child whose task is to carry expectations and anxieties about the future and bind them into a reproductive present. In many ways, the death drive is a temporal concept, holding together the paradoxical time in which repetition contains within it a backwards pull towards the no-time of the living organism, even as the shape of this relation describes ''a life''.
cord-032227-xxa0hlpu	2020	Although there are many disturbing aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic, from the perspective of terror management theory (TMT; Greenberg et al., 1986; Solomon et al., 2015) , the enormous death toll and highly contagious nature of the virus play especially important roles in spawning the diverse forms of turmoil that have resulted from this crisis. TMT posits that people manage the potential for anxiety inherent in awareness of the inevitability of death by maintaining faith in their cultural worldviews, self-esteem, and close relationships; these anxiety-buffering systems mitigate existential terror by imparting a sense that one is a person of value living in a meaningful world (for a more thorough presentation of these ideas, see Solomon et al., 2015) .
cord-147282-6a1dfzs8	2020	title: Spatiotemporal dynamic of COVID-19 mortality in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil: shifting the high risk from the best to the worst socio-economic conditions Thus, this study aims to unveil the spatiotemporal dynamic of COVID-19 mortality at a fine granular level in the city of São Paulo considering the socio-economic context of the population. In the sequence, we obtained the mortality rates for confirmed, suspected, and total COVID-19 deaths by sex and age for the entire period from EW 11th to 24th using Tabnet and e-SIC databases. Table 1 shows the numbers and mortality rates of confirmed, suspected, and total COVID-19 deaths obtained from e-SIC and Tabnet databases from EW 11 th to 24 th by sex and age. The spatial distribution of suspected and confirmed deaths by COVID-19 in the city of Sao Paulo shows inequalities, with spatial dependence and positive correlation associated with socio-economic factors of the areas, remarkably similar to the results of Maciel et al.
cord-163587-zjnr7vwm	2020	In this paper we describe a statistical methodology for nowcasting the epidemic statistics, such as hospitalizations or deaths, and their degrees of uncertainty, based on the daily reported event frequency and the observed distribution pattern of reporting delays. We propose to use the removal method, developed in animal management (Pollock, 1991) , to present an estimate of the actual frequencies at a given day and their uncertainty. To account for this, we allow the estimated proportions of daily reported cases to follow a probability distribution taking into consideration what type of day it is. We propose a Bayesian version of the removal model that assumes an overdispersed binomial distribution for the daily observations of deaths in Sweden in COVID-19. Another limitation is that the model assumes that the number of new reported deaths for a given day cannot be negative, which is not actually true, due to miscount or misclassification of days.
cord-176131-0vrb3law	2020	We generate longer-time horizon predictions over various 1-month windows in the past, forecast how many medical resources such as ventilators and ICU beds will be needed in counties, and evaluate the efficacy of our model in other countries. To fit the deaths data to the system of differential equations in the PECAIQR model, we performed numerical integration using the scipy odeint package [7] , and traversed the parameter space to find a set of parameters that minimized the least squares error of each fit variable in relation to its observed variables. The methods described in the past two subsections are implemented as options that can be activated with hyper parameters, and collectively they provide several different ways to fit the PECAIQR model and generate the confidence intervals. In sub-figure d) we see that the peak daily deaths value predicted by the model is significantly less than the actual peak that is revealed with more data.
cord-180835-sgu7ayvw	2020	By inspecting the correlations between the NLSs and the epidemiological indicators, we find that as the pandemic intensifies -in the sense of an increasing number of cases and deaths reported daily -our emotional response diminishes, as expected from a psychophysical numbing phenomenon. Altogether, this analysis demonstrates that words indicating a subjective emotional/affective experience and words related to death are well-separated in this Twitter data, which is consistent with the notion of psychophysical numbing as an explanation for the trends and correlations observed in Figures 1 and 2 . We also showed that the psychophysical laws of Weber-Fechner and of power law perception in humans accurately model the relationship between the frequency of words related to death and the actual daily number of Covid-19 deaths in each country.
cord-223212-5j5r6dd5	2020	To capture heterogeneity in the population and the effect of interventions to reduce the rate of epidemic spread, the model uses a time-varying contact rate, whose logarithm has a Gaussian process prior. A Poisson point process is used to model the occurrence of deaths due to COVID-19 and the model is calibrated using data of daily death counts in combination with a snapshot of the the proportion of individuals with an active infection, performed in Stockholm in late March. In this paper an SEIR epidemic model with time-varying contact rate will be used to model the evolution of the number of susceptible (S), exposed (E), infected (I), and recovered (R) individuals. The main extensions include the introduction of the Poisson point process to model the occurrence of deaths, the addition of random sampling to test for infection, and an extension to multiple regions.
cord-226245-p0cyzjwf	2020	Given that death counts generally provide more reliable information on the spread of the disease compared to infection counts, which inevitably depend on testing strategy and capacity, the proposed model and the presented results allow to obtain reliable insight into the current state of the pandemic in Germany. The data are provided by the Robert-Koch-Institute (www.rki.de) and give the cumulative number of deaths in different gender and age groups for each of the 412 administrative districts in Germany together with the date of registration of the infection. In Figure 2 we combine these different components and map the fitted nowcasted death counts related to Covid-19 for the different districts of Germany, cumulating over the last seven days before the day of analysis (here May 14, 2020). Let Y t,r,g denote the number of daily deaths due to COVID-19 in district/region r and age and gender group g with time point (date of registration) t = 0, .
cord-230345-bu6vi7xz	2020	Design: With a priori information obtained from the daily number of deaths due to CODIV-19 in China and data from the Peruvian authorities, we constructed a predictive Bayesian non-linear model for the number of deaths in Peru. To this end, we propose to model the daily number of deaths using a Poisson distribution with a rate parameter that is proportional to a Skew Normal density. Using a Bayesian approach and a prior epidemic China COVID-19 history, we forecast the total number of deaths in Peru for the next seventy days. Since China was the first country to have experienced a drastic drop in infections and deaths, we are proposing to incorporate this data, into our Peruvian death rate predictions, through a prior distribution. The predicted rates and their associated 95% prediction credible intervals were obtained, under a Bayesian approach, by considering a non-informative prior and the Chinese official death reports.
cord-249569-78zstcag	2020	Motivated by the current Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) pandemic, which is due to the SARS-CoV-2 virus, and the important problem of forecasting daily deaths and cumulative deaths, this paper examines the construction of prediction regions or intervals under the Poisson regression model and for an over-dispersed Poisson regression model. The real-life and practical application for which our methods will be applied is the construction of prediction regions for the daily and cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for a future date given only the daily deaths data until a current date. Summing up our observations from these simulation studies for this no-covariate or intercept only Poisson model, in terms of adapting to the estimation of the unknown rate λ,Γ 1 andΓ 5 possess the best performance among these six prediction regions in terms of achieving the nominal level, but they also tend to be longer than the others.
cord-252664-h02qy4z0	2020	title: Ageand sex-specific total mortality impacts of the early weeks of the Covid-19 pandemic in England and Wales: Application of a Bayesian model ensemble to mortality statistics Methods: We developed an ensemble of 16 Bayesian models that probabilistically estimate the weekly number of deaths that would be expected had the Covid-19 pandemic not occurred. We developed and applied methodology to quantify the weekly mortality impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic and associated responses by age group and sex in England and Wales. We developed an ensemble of 16 short-term Bayesian mortality projection models that each make an estimate of weekly death rates that would be expected if the Covid-19 pandemic had not occurred. . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.20.20107680 doi: medRxiv preprint already a >92% probability that there were more deaths in both sexes and all age groups ≥45 years than would occur in the absence of the pandemic; the probability was 100% (i.e., every one of the 16,000 draws were positive) from the subsequent week (Figures 2 and 3) .
cord-259557-n46fbzae	2018	In the wake of the influenza pandemic of 1889–1890 Jacques Bertillon, a pioneer of medical statistics, noticed that after the massive death spike there was a dip in birth numbers around 9 months later which was significantly larger than that which could be explained by the population change as a result of excess deaths. In the last section it is shown how the present coupling leads to predictions; it can explain in a unified way effects which so far have been studied separately, as for instance the impact on birth rates of heat waves. In 1892 Jacques Bertillon, a pioneer of medical statistics and one of the designers of the ''''International Classification of Diseases'''', published an analysis of the influenza pandemic of November 1889-February 1990 in which he showed that approximately 9 months after the climax of the epidemic a temporary birth rate trough (of an amplitude of about 20%) was observed in all countries where the pandemic has had a substantial impact, particularly Austria, France, Germany or Italy.
cord-261437-x2k9apav	2020	Methods Using integrated data in each US state from the 2018 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), United States Census Bureau and the 1Point3Acres.com website, generalized estimating equation (GEE) models with negative binomial distribution assumption and log link functions were used to examine the association of weighted proportions of vapers with number of COVID-19 infections and deaths in the US. We will examine the association of vaping with COVID-19 infections and deaths, using the integrated state-level weighted proportions of current e-cigarette users (vapers) from the 2018 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) survey data, the population size and land area in 2018 in each state from United States Census Bureau, and the daily number of COVID-19 infected cases and deaths in each state from the 1Point3Acres.com website during the time period from January 21, 2020 to April 25, 2020 in the United States.
cord-262681-2voe4r7f	2020	The autopsy, one of the most important tools of forensic medicine, is also useful to infectious diseases because it identifies the causal relationship between death and infection, reveals medical and epidemiological knowledge, and provides objective evidence for legal disputes. Therefore, a guideline for the standard autopsy for infectious diseases is stated here, which aims to: 1) provide scientific grounds to establish appropriate plans for the prevention and treatment of infectious diseases, 2) contribute to improving national health by controlling the spread of pathogens within the community, and 3) protect human resources engaged in autopsy-related work from the risk of infection. In the case of personnel who participated in the autopsy of a body confirmed to be infected but the standard protocol was followed, there is no possibility of exposure, so only selfmonitoring of the symptoms and the minimizing of face-to-face contacts during the expected incubation period are required.
cord-262795-u56u9mjz	2019	title: Experimental Data-Mining Analyses Reveal New Roles of Low-Intensity Ultrasound in Differentiating Cell Death Regulatome in Cancer and Non-cancer Cells via Potential Modulation of Chromatin Long-Range Interactions Furthermore, our data implies that thermal effects and osmotic shear stress (OSS) associated with LIUS may potentially play a role in inducing the differential gene expression patterns of the cell death regulatome that we observed. Our report allows us to propose a new molecular working model for LIUS therapies for the treatment of cancers and inflammation: First, LIUS differentially upregulates cell death regulators in cancer cells, and downregulates inflammatory pathways in noncancer cells potentially via transcription factors TP53-, and SRF-, mediated pathways; Second, the therapeutic applications of LIUS may depend on the propagation of ultrasound waves through tissues to produce thermal and non-thermal mechanic effects; Third, LIUS may modulate chromatin long-range interactions to differentially regulate cell death gene expressions in cancer cells and non-cancer cells.
cord-267948-jveh2w09	2020	Measures of excess deaths have been used to estimate the impact of public health pandemics or disasters, particularly when there are questions about underascertainment of deaths directly attributable to a given event or cause (1-6).† Excess deaths are defined as the number of persons who have died from all causes, in excess of the expected number of deaths for a given place and time. Expected numbers of deaths were estimated using overdispersed Poisson regression models with spline terms to account for seasonal patterns, using provisional mortality data from CDC''s National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) (7). This report describes trends and demographic patterns in the number of excess deaths occurring in the United States from January 26, 2020, through October 3, 2020, and differences by age and race/ ethnicity using provisional mortality data from the NVSS. Although more excess deaths have occurred among older age groups, relative to past years, adults aged 25-44 years have experienced the largest average percentage increase in the number of deaths from all causes from late January through October 3, 2020.
cord-268816-nth3o6ot	2020	The features in the order shown under "Feature name" are: GDP, inter-state distance based on lat-long coordinates, gender, ethnicity, quality of health care facility, number of homeless people, total infected and death, population density, airport passenger traffic, age group, days for infection and death to peak, number of people tested for COVID-19, days elapsed between first reported infection and the imposition of lockdown measures at a given state. Unless otherwise stated, the feature set comprises GDP, gender, ethnicity, health care, homeless, lockdown type, population density, airport activity, and age groups, whereas the output labels consist of infected and death scores on a scale of 0-6. Although proposing a machine learning algorithm that works best on COVID-19 data is not the purpose of this study, it is worth reporting that decision tree classifier (DT) slightly outperforms the other algorithms for both cases of infected and death scores.
cord-270408-4qqyb8sd	2013	title: Causes of Mortality for Indonesian Hajj Pilgrims: Comparison between Routine Death Certificate and Verbal Autopsy Findings This study presents the patterns and causes of death for Indonesian pilgrims, and compares routine death certificates to verbal autopsy findings. In the last two decades, the mortality rate of Indonesian pilgrims, excluding years in which disasters such as stampedes occurred, fluctuated between 200-380 deaths per 100,000 persons during the ten-week Hajj period [5] . The cause of death based on this verbal autopsy method was then recorded in the database and compared to that reported by the hospital or flight doctor death certificate. A greater proportion of deaths were attributed to cardiovascular disease by the flight doctor or hospital death certificate (66%) compared to the cause of death ascertained using the verbal autopsy method (49%, p<0.001). Based on both the death certificates and verbal autopsy categories, cardiovascular disease was the leading cause of Indonesian pilgrim mortality in 2008.
cord-275071-2uiaruhg	2020	Linking decisions over the timing of lockdown and consequent deaths to economic data, we reveal the costs that national governments were implicitly prepared to pay to protect their citizens as reflected in the economic activity foregone to save lives. Accepting that they are a conservative estimate of the total impact of the pandemic, officially attributed Covid-19 deaths are used to investigate the price of life implied by lockdown policies. However, as far as we are aware, ours is the first study to use the SEIR modelling framework to examine the effects of lockdown timing across multiple countries in the same study, and the first to combine these results with financial forecasts to obtain cross-country implied price of life estimates. Table 5 shows that for those countries which under-report Covid-19 deaths, implied price of life is substantially reduced, highlighting once again that earlier lockdowns would have increased social welfare tremendously.
cord-281406-d7g0pbj4	2020	BACKGROUND: Since the emergence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Hubei province of China by the end of 2019, it has burned its way across the globe, resulting in a still fast-growing death toll that far exceeded those from severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in less than two months. The death cases were described from four aspects (gender and age characteristics, underlying diseases, the time course of death, symptoms at the incipience of illness and hospital admission). As there is a paucity of evidence on which population is more likely to progress into severe conditions among COVID-19 cases, here, we poured over the first batch of 38 death cases whose information were made public by Health Commission of Hubei province as of 24 January 2020, one day into city lockdown in Wuhan, with the purpose to add a new facet to current evidence.
cord-284786-pua14ogz	2020	In this paper, we empirically investigate the ecologic association between long-term concentrations of area-level fine particulate matter (PM(2.5)) and excess deaths in the first quarter of 2020 in municipalities of Northern Italy. We estimate a negative binomial model of excessive deaths on historical PM 2.5 concentrations and a series of control variables that may plausibly affect both PM 2.5 concentration and mortality, including population density; the spatial concentration of the industrial manufacturing sites; climatic conditions observed during the first quarter of 2020; and the demographic composition of the municipal population among others. Among the covariates, PM is the concentration of fine particulate matter in municipality i and is the associated parameter, which we expect positive and statistically different from zero; X is a vector of control variables that adjusts for the potential confounding effects and includes the (log of) total population as the offset while is a normally-distributed error term.
cord-284945-837qlk8y	2020	Using data for all 84 countries with reliable testing data (spanning 4.75 billion people) we develop a dynamic epidemiological model integrating data on cases, deaths, excess mortality and other factors to estimate how asymptomatic transmission, disease acuity, hospitalization, and behavioral and policy responses to risk condition prevalence and IFR across nations and over time. Our model captures transmission dynamics for the disease, as well as how, at the country level, transmission rates vary in response to risk perception and weather, testing rates condition infection and death data, and fatality rates depend on demographics and hospitalization. Using testing rate time series and various country-level data points (e.g. population, hospital capacity, comorbidities, age distribution), the model endogenously simulates confirmed new daily cases and deaths over time and matches them against observed data by maximizing the likelihood of observing those data given the model parameters.
cord-285262-690kpupt	2020	Apoptosis, necroptosis and pyroptosis represent three distinct types of regulated cell death forms, which play significant roles in response to viral and bacterial infections. Abstract Apoptosis, necroptosis and pyroptosis represent three distinct types of regulated cell death forms, which play significant roles in response to viral and bacterial infections. In this chapter, based on the current advances in the research, we give a detailed description about the key cell death modalities, including apoptosis, necroptosis and pyroptosis emerging in response to pathogenic insults, and we discuss how bacterial and viral infections can modulate these signaling pathways. The components of the bacterial T3SS trigger inflammasome formation and pyroptotic cell death in Shigella infected macrophages through the activation of the NLR family CARD domain containing protein 4 (NLRC4) (Fig. 3) . Macrophage activation redirects yersinia-infected host cell death from apoptosis to caspase-1-dependent pyroptosis
cord-287283-t1hnswsq	2017	Although Chinese officials announced in December 2014 that the country would completely cease using organs harvested from prisoners, no regulatory adjustments or changes in China''s organ donation laws followed. CONCLUSION: To end the unethical practice and the abuse associated with it, we suggest to inextricably bind the use of human organs procured in the Chinese transplant system to enacting Chinese legislation prohibiting the use of organs from executed prisoners and making explicit rules for law enforcement. Recently, it has been repeatedly admitted by Chinese transplant officials that organs from executed prisoners had been procured without consent [17] [18] [19] . The unethical practice of lethally procuring vital organs from the living must be prevented by a law prohibiting use of prisoner organs generally, supporting change in the practical legal, medical and popular culture surrounding transplantation in China.
cord-288678-ptvaopgj	2020	A new methodology, Patient Information Based Algorithm (PIBA) [1] , has been adapted to process the data and used to estimate the death rate of COVID-19 in real-time. A new methodology, Patient Information Based Algorithm (PIBA) [1] , has been adapted to process the data and used to estimate the death rate of COVID-19 in real-time. The disease information in table 2 has been collected from the public media before we resume data analysing with the same method of death rate estimation and prediction in South Korea as in China [1] . Each curve consisting of several death rate will have a trendline and thus a formula to describe this trend as well as the current ratio between accumulative death cases and confirmed cases on each day (Table 4 ). The data analysis was all following normal distribution, either in calculating the possibility of every selected score or in estimating the death rate.
cord-290687-kc7t1y5o	2020	Materials and Methods: Data of weather, vaccination trends, life expectancy, lung disease, number of infected people in the pre-lockdown and post-lockdown period of highly infected nations are collected. Conclusions: Though depending on the study outcome, the impact of CoVid19 in India can be predicted, the required lockdown period cannot be calculated due to data limitation. We have considered life expectancy also to inspect its impact on the number of infected cases and deaths. In This article, the data of Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination has been compared with present death rate of different countries. These diseases have shown an impact on death rate in many countries which are badly affected by coronavirus. Negative minimum temperature, a specific range of maximum temperature, lack of BCG vaccination and tendency of other lungs diseases have shown some positive impact in increasing the number of CoVid19 cases and death.
cord-292378-mz3cvc0p	2020	In England and Wales, official mortality data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reveal that during the first 10 weeks of the pandemic, (7 th March to 15th May), there were over 41,000 COVID-19 deaths, most occurring in hospital (65%), with 28% in care homes and few elsewhere (7%). The objectives are: 1) to explore trends in place of death; 2) to explore the age and gender distribution of baseline deaths, COVID-19 deaths and additional deaths; 3) to estimate the proportion of people who died from COVID-19 who would have been in their last year of life, and differences by age; 4) to use this information to discuss implications for palliative care provision, service planning, and research. Using routine data and modelling scenarios to understand mortality patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic, we highlight that care homes temporarily became the most common place to die in England and Wales, and that hospital and home deaths increased by over 50% while deaths in hospices fell by 20%.
cord-298036-2zurc60t	2020	Subsequently, granzyme-B induces mitochondrial apoptosis by performing cleavage of the BCL-2 homology domain-3 (BH3)-only protein, BH3 interacting domain death agonist (BID), which then leads to BAX/BAK-mediated MOMP and the initiation of the caspase-9-driven apoptotic pathway [16] . Still, the mechanism, by which IRF-3 triggers cell death signalling pathways is only partially understood and the studies indicate a strong cell type specificity in the apoptosis sensitivity in response to viral PAMPs Z-RNA and z-DNA fragments, which are distinct from the B-structure of eukaryotic RNA and DNA are recognized by z-DNA/RNA binding protein-1 (ZBP1; also: DAI). Necroptosis initiation takes place upon TNFR ligation, which, however, primarily leads to NFkB activation via the assembly of so called complex-I, including adaptor proteins TNFRSF1A associated via death domain (TRADD), TRAF2, cellular IAP (cIAP) and ubiquitinated receptor interacting serine/threonine kinase 1 (RIPK1) [10] .
cord-300651-4didq6dk	2020	METHODS: We conducted an Internet-based retrospective cohort study through retrieving the clinical information of 100 COVID-19 deaths from nonduplicating incidental reports in Chinese provincial and other governmental websites between January 23 and March 10, 2020. I n December 2019, several cases of pneumonia of unknown cause were reported in Wuhan, China that were later recognized as a novel coronavirus infection, named coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by the World Health Organization (WHO). The reported clinical characteristics included the patient''s age, sex, initial onset symptoms, pre-existing chronic diseases, direct cause of death, date of admission, date of diagnosis, and date of death. Among the 100 COVID-19 fatalities, 16 cases were missing data on direct cause of death. In this Internet-based data intelligence study, we observed that the majority of COVID-19 deaths were elderly (approximately 8 of 10) and males (6 of 10), and most fatalities (3 of 4) occurred in patients with chronic illnesses.
cord-301300-nfl9z8c7	2020	Three secondary outcome measures will support hypothesis testing for specific evidence-based practices known to decrease opioid overdose deaths: (1) number of naloxone units distributed in HCS communities; (2) number of unique HCS residents receiving Food and Drug Administration-approved buprenorphine products for treatment of opioid use disorder; and (3) number of HCS residents with new incidents of high-risk opioid prescribing. The Helping to End Addiction Long-term (HEALing) Communities Study (HCS) is a multisite, parallel-group, cluster randomized wait-list controlled trial evaluating the impact of the Communities That HEAL intervention to reduce opioid overdose deaths and other associated adverse outcomes (Walsh et al., in press) . The research site teams established multiple data use agreements with data owners to support the calculation for more than 80 study measures based on administrative data collections, such as death certificates, emergency medical services data, inpatient and emergency department discharge billing records, Medicaid claims, syndromic surveillance data, PDMP data, Drug Enforcement Administration data on drug take back collection sites and events, DATA 2000 waivered prescriber data, HIV registry, naloxone distribution and dispensed prescription data.
cord-301399-s2i6qfjn	2020	Therefore, we examined changes in the number of deaths and age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMR) attributed to the top 10 causes of death between 2011 and 2018, the last year we have data available from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. We chose 2011 as the start date because of earlier work showing a transition in 2011 in 2 of the top 10 causes of death (heart disease and stroke) from a long-term decline to increasing numbers of deaths since then. Important patterns of change in AAMR in the past decade have been previously noted, from stalling of the decline in mortality due to heart disease 1 to decrease in life expectancy attributed to drug overdoses and suicides among young and middle-aged adults. Further, the ≥ 65 years population is projected to increase by 39% from 52.4 million in 2018 to 73.1 million in 2030 3 so that the number of deaths from most of the 10 leading causes can be expected to increase unless more effective preventive and therapeutic interventions can be implemented.
cord-302336-zj3oixvk	2020	13 The use of primary care datasets with linkage to registries such as death records, hospital admissions data, and covid-19 testing results represents a novel approach to clinical risk prediction modelling for covid-19. Patients entered the cohort on 24 January 2020 (date of first confirmed case of covid-19 in the UK) and were followed up until they had the outcome of interest or the end of the first study period (30 April 2020), which was the date up to which linked data were available at the time of the derivation of the model, or the second time period (1 May 2020 until 30 June 2020) for the temporal cohort validation. 25 D statistics (a discrimination measure that quantifies the separation in survival between patients with different levels of predicted risks) and Harrell''s C statistics (a discrimination metric that quantifies the extent to which people with higher risk scores have earlier events) were evaluated at 97 days (the maximum followup period available at the time of the derivation of the model) and 60 days for the second temporal validation, with corresponding 95% confidence intervals.
cord-307753-p1htdvrp	2020	Past human societies as a whole have been extraordinarily resilient in the face of severe challenges, but the configuration of social and political structures was always impacted in a number of ways, with substantial implications for development pathways (e.g., the different medium-term outcomes of the Black Death in England and France) (Borsch 2005, pp. How societies in the past responded to stress depends on three key sets of conditions: their complexity (the degree of interdependency across social relationships and structures), their institutional and ideological flexibility, and their systemic redundancy, all of which together determine the resilience of the system. Yet if we examine particular outbreaks, even the destructive demographic narrative demonstrates the ability of the Eastern Roman state to react both immediately to the increased numbers of deaths, maintain vital administrative efforts, and continue its long-term political goals.
cord-319860-zouscolw	2020	The greatest proportional increase of excess COVID-19-related acute CV death was due to pulmonary embolism (251, a proportional increase of 11%) followed by stroke (562, a proportional increase of 6%), acute coronary syndrome (318, a proportional increase of 5%), cardiac arrest (93, a proportional increase of 6%) and heart failure (273, a proportional increase of 4%) (figure 2, table 2). The most frequent causes of excess acute CV death in care homes and hospices were stroke (715, a proportional increase of 39%) and heart failure (227, a proportional increase of 25%), which compared with acute coronary syndrome (768, a proportional increase of 41%) and heart failure (734, a proportional increase of 33%) at home, and pulmonary embolism (155, a proportional increase of 13%) and cardiogenic shock (55, a proportional increase of 15%) in hospital ( figure 3, table 3 ). ► Our study of all adult deaths in England and Wales between 1 January 2014 and 30 June 2020 has quantified the CV mortality impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, be this related to contagion and/or the public response.
cord-319912-fc9tmx96	2020	In the Veneto region, which embraced mass testing, contact tracing, and at-home care provision, COVID-19-induced mortality was, respectively, three and six times smaller than in neighboring Emilia-Romagna and Lombardy. This result helps to rationalize the serious undercounting of COVID-19 fatalities in official statistics, which do not include deaths in nursing homes. We zoom in on Lombardy, the worst affected region, to test whether COVID-19 had an additional effect on mortality in municipalities with a higher share of people living in nursing homes (see the Online Appendix for details on the estimation). A plausible estimate suggests that true deaths were about 60% higher than what was officially reported during the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy. We use highly granular daily death registry data for thousands of municipalities in Italy''s north to conduct a precise estimation of the true effect of COVID-19 on the mortality rate and compare the real death toll with what is reported in official statistics.
cord-334835-j6u8t8j2	2020	title: Characteristics and predictors of death among 4,035 consecutively hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in Spain OBJECTIVES: We aimed to analyse the characteristics and predictors of death in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in Spain. Seventeen factors were independently associated with an increased hazard of death, the strongest among them included advanced age, liver cirrhosis, low age-adjusted oxygen saturation, higher concentrations of C-reactive protein, and lower estimated glomerular filtration rate. In the 209 final adjusted analysis, we found 17 factors independently associated with an increased hazard of 210 death: male sex, older age, arterial hypertension, obesity, liver cirrhosis, chronic neurological 211 disorder, active cancer, dementia, dyspnoea, confusion, low age-adjusted SaO2 on room air, higher 212 white cell blood count (WBC), higher neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, lower platelet count, 213 prolonged INR, lower eGFR, and higher concentrations of CRP (Figure 2) .
cord-336577-uvnbgsds	2020	Notification of survivors -Determine the most appropriate patient contact and the team-member best suited to disclose -Use "SPIKES" 2 principles and the words "died" or "death" -Offer assistance in sharing the news with other friends or family -Consider saying a few closing words honoring the patient Care team should include primary physicians and nurses, relevant consultants (e.g., palliative care), spiritual personnel, and decedent affairs team members Death in the context of COVID-19: For specific guidance on the safe management of a dead body in the context of COVID-19 and how it may inform the above framework, please refer to the World Health Organization Interim Guidance 3 *State reporting guidelines can be found at: https://www.cdc.gov/phlp/publications/topic/coroner.html †Local Networks can be found at: https://www.organdonor.gov/awareness/organizations/local-opo.html is important that we work collectively to care for each other, support our survivors, and honor the sunsets of our patients.
cord-337763-kusqyumn	2020	The underreporting of COVID-19 deaths in the state of Minas Gerais (MG), where is concentrated the second largest population of the country, reveals government unpreparedness, as there is a low capacity of testing in the population, which prevents the real understanding of the general panorama of Sars-Cov-2 dissemination. The goals of this research are to analyze the causes of deaths in the different Brazilian government databases (ARPEN and SINAN) and to assess whether there are sub-records shown by the unexpected increase in the frequency of deaths from causes clinically similar to COVID-19. The present study aims to analyze the death causes in the notary records and in the Brazilian National disease notification system records, and thus evaluate the subregistries and the possible increase in the frequency of deaths with clinically compatible causes to COVID-19 in the Minas Gerais territory.
cord-340805-qbvgnr4r	2020	Poor data input, wrong modeling assumptions, high sensitivity of estimates, lack of incorporation of epidemiological features, poor past evidence on effects of available interventions, lack of transparency, errors, lack of determinacy, looking at only one or a few dimensions of the problem at hand, lack of expertise in crucial disciplines, groupthink and bandwagon effects and selective reporting are some of the causes of these failures. When major decisions (e.g. draconian lockdowns) are based on forecasts, the harms (in terms of health, economy, and society at large) and the asymmetry of risks need to be approached in a holistic fashion, considering the totality of the evidence.
cord-341806-7hatbzra	2020	In England and Wales, official mortality data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reveal that during the first 10 weeks of the pandemic (7 March to 15 May 2020), there were over 41,000 COVID-19 deaths, most occurring in hospitals (65%), with 28% in care homes and few elsewhere (7%). This study aims to explore patterns of mortality during the first 10 weeks of the COVID-19 pandemic in England and Wales (7 March to 15 May 2020) to understand implications for palliative care, service planning and research. The objectives are (1) to explore trends in place of death; (2) to explore the age and gender distribution of baseline deaths, COVID-19 deaths and additional deaths; (3) to estimate the proportion of people who died from COVID-19 who would have been in their last year of life, and differences by age; and (4) to use this information to discuss implications for palliative care provision, service planning and research.
cord-342211-y7zxipiz	2020	In this paper I examine the sensitivity of total UK Covid-19 deaths and the demand for intensive care and ward beds, to the timing and duration of suppression periods during a 500 day period. Using an expected latent period of 4.5 days and infectious period of 3.8 days, R_0 was first estimated as 3.18 using observed death rates under unmitigated spread and then under the effects of the total lock down (R_0=0.60) of 23 March. Starting with one exposed person at time zero and a suppression consistent with an R_0 of 0.60 on day 72, the model predicts around 39,000 deaths for a first wave, but this reduces to around 11,000 if the intervention takes place one week earlier. Figure 1 shows the death rate, required ward and intensive care beds, numbers of susceptible, exposed, and infectious, and cumulative deaths over time.
cord-343042-9mue4eiv	2020	Following these complaints, the autopsy was performed, and subsequent histological examinations revealed the presence of typical and pathognomonic histological findings of acute viral bronchiolitis, whose morphological appearance is poorly reported in the literature. For all these reasons, the autopsy, either clinical or medicolegal, is mandatory in cases of sudden unexpected infant death to manage claim requests because only the histological examinations performed on samples collected during the autopsy can reveal the real cause of death. In fact, in the reported case studies, histopathologic diagnostics identified pathognomonic signs of acute bronchiolitis characterized by edema, congestion, leukocytic infiltration in the bronchiolar wall, leukocytes in the peribronchial interstitial pulmonary space, allowing the identification of the exact cause of death. The analysis of the presented cases shows that the autopsy is mandatory in SUID occurrence, in which the absence of anamnestic data and/or acute clinical signs does not allow to identify the cause of death.
cord-343685-iq3njzoi	2020	Spanish and Dutch official records of mortality and population during the 21st century are analyzed to determine the age specific crude death rate in the 2020 spring COVID-19 outbreak. This manuscript takes official records of weekly crude deaths in Spain and Netherlands during the 21st century and population records to ascertain the impact of the COVID-19 in age specific death rates. Next group of columns displays the results in Figure 2 : first the predicted value or reference R for 2020 followed by the death rate excess E = O − R and three statistics related to it: the 95 % confidence interval, the P −score E/R and the z−score computed as the excess E divided by the standard deviation of the residuals. This result is not far from the characteristic time observed for age specific death rates in the past twenty years which are 6.8 a (Spain) and 6.0 a (Netherlands).
cord-344252-6g3zzj0o	2020	We employ deep learning to propose an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based and data stream guided real-time incremental learning algorithm for parameter estimation of a non-intrusive, intelligent, adaptive and online analytical model of Covid-19 disease. In this work, we employ deep learning to propose an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based real-time online incremental learning technique to estimate parameters of a data stream guided analytical model of Covid-19 to study the transmission dynamics and prevention mechanism for SARS-Cov-2 novel coronavirus in order to aid in optimal policy formulation, efficient decision making, forecasting and simulation. To the best of our knowledge, this paper develops for the first time a deep learning model of epidemic diseases with data science approach in which parameters are intelligently adapted to the new ground realities with fast evolving infection dynamics.
cord-344866-vhuw4gwn	2020	Explaining this, Smelser writes: ''with respect to the dimension of time alone, the traumatic process was truncated… The moment of the attacks to the recognition that they constituted a national trauma was a matter of short days, if not hours…The scope of the trauma and the identity of the victims were established immediately… there was an instant consensus that it was a trauma for everybody, for the nation… there was no significant divergence in the reactions of government and community leaders, the media, and the public in assigning meaning to the events as a national tragedy and outrage…there was little evidence of social division around the trauma'' (Smelser 2004, p. However, despite initial high levels of anxiety the pandemic did not evolve into cultural trauma in either, even with an exceptionally high death rate in Sweden and the great difference in trust in authority that distinguishes the two countries.
cord-344994-68j6ekiy	2020	In this paper, we propose an enhanced SEIRD (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Death) model with time varying case fatality and transmission rates for confirmed cases and deaths from COVID-19. From the projected fatality data, they 44 estimated hospital utilization with an individual-level microsimulation model based on Due to the limits of testing methods, the long incubation period, and cases with 50 mild or no symptoms and delayed reporting, there is potentially a huge (and unknown) 51 number of unreported cases, the extent to which could affect the future evolution of the 52 epidemic. [15] and [16] In our research we explore use of a concise formulation through which continuously 69 time varying transmission and case fatality rates are modeled with a small number of 70 parameters, which are fit to historical data. Effective reproduction number at any time t, which we define as Rep (t), is the average 234 number of people in a population who are infected per infectious case, where everyone is 235 susceptible to the disease.
cord-346583-2w39qsld	2020	Below the results of statistical studies on the relationship of total COVID-19 cases per 1 million population and deaths per 1 million populations at 28 May 2020 with 10 demographic, economic and social indicators (indices) are shown. The statistical relationships of total COVID-19 Cases and Deaths per million populations in these countries with 10 demographic, economic and social indicators (indices) were studied. The statistical relationships of total COVID-19 Cases and Deaths per million populations in these countries with 10 demographic, economic and social indicators (indices) were studied. These indicators are Life Expectancy, Median Age, Growth Rate, Population Density, GDP PPP per capita, Human Development Index (HDI), Gini index of income equality, Intelligence Quotient (IQ), Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) and Democracy Index. These indicators are Life Expectancy, Median Age, Growth Rate, Population Density, GDP PPP per capita, Human Development Index (HDI), Gini index of income equality, Intelligence Quotient (IQ), Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) and Democracy Index.
cord-346912-o09qmp7x	2020	We develop an SIR model of the COVID-19 pandemic which explicitly considers herd immunity, behavior-dependent transmission rates, remote workers, and indirect externalities of lockdown. Additionally, if we incorporate a behavior-dependent transmission rate which represents increased personal caution in response to increased infection levels, both output loss and total mortality are lowered. Overall, our model predicts that a lockdown which ends at the arrival of herd immunity, combined with individual actions to slow virus transmission, can reduce total mortality to one-third of the no-lockdown level, while allowing high-risk individuals to leave lockdown well before vaccine arrival. • Increasing the level of remote work reduces the impact of COVID-19 by decreasing both mortality and output loss, even though a longer lockdown is imposed. Recreation of [Ace+20] model (two groups and no herd immunity), parameters from Table 1 Output Loss: 8.9676%, Total Deaths: 1.3121% All rights reserved.
cord-350261-7lkcdisr	2020	Understanding the demographic and clinical characteristics of deceased COVID-19 patients; and estimation of time-interval between symptom onset, hospital admission and death could inform public health interventions focusing on preventing mortality due to COVID-19. This study aims to understand the demographic and clinical characteristics of deceased COVID-19 patients; and estimate the time-interval between symptom onset, hospital admission and death, which could inform public health interventions focusing on preventing mortality due to COVID-19. Our study analysed the individual death summaries, and described the demographic and clinical characteristics of deceased COVID-19 patients; and estimated the time intervals between symptoms onset to hospital admission and death, which are critical for developing context and geographicspecific public health interventions focusing on reducing the mortality.
cord-351941-fgtatt40	2020	Estimates using data up to March 20th, 2020, point to 916,000 (90% UI: 508 K, 1.5 M) cumulative cases and 15,485 (90% UI: 8.4 K, 25.8 K) total deaths, numbers an order of magnitude higher than official statistics. The current paper focuses on using a standard dynamic epidemiological model as a tool for incorporating various sources of data into a unified estimation of the actual trajectory of disease, applying the method to COVID-19 outbreak in Iran. We also use unofficial data points including four observations about the number of Iranian passengers diagnosed with COVID-19 upon arrival in international airports, and three estimates aggregated by healthcare providers in Iran and reported by BBC and Iran International news agencies about total cases of death from COVID-19. We define a likelihood function for change over time (net-inflow) of official reports on cumulative death, recovered and infection assuming they are count events drawn from model-predicted rates (Poisson distribution).
cord-354372-vfvnjmv1	2020	In the current pandemic scenario of SARS-CoV-2, the autopsy appears to be a crucial tool to clarify the virus target cells in human, the frameworks of organ damage and the biological mechanisms that lead to death or allow the patient to heal. To minimize the dispersion of blood and biological fluids, it is essential to always operate in the area of the autopsy table: the viscera removed from the body must be placed either on the iron section table, placed above the patient''s thighs, or in a large tray with high steel edges resting on the patient''s legs, during weighing, macroscopic examination and sampling of the viscera. Given the multiple clinical findings of neurological symptoms in patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 [22, 23] , it appears indispensable to perform the evisceration and examination of the brain and brainstem, for the completeness of the autopsy and for the very few morphological data available today on the central nervous system.