id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-344994-68j6ekiy	Lyu, M.	Dynamic Modeling of Reported Covid-19 Cases and Deaths with Continuously Varying Case Fatality and Transmission Rate Functions	2020-09-27		.txt	text/plain	2943	169	59	In this paper, we propose an enhanced SEIRD (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Death) model with time varying case fatality and transmission rates for confirmed cases and deaths from COVID-19. From the projected fatality data, they 44 estimated hospital utilization with an individual-level microsimulation model based on Due to the limits of testing methods, the long incubation period, and cases with 50 mild or no symptoms and delayed reporting, there is potentially a huge (and unknown) 51 number of unreported cases, the extent to which could affect the future evolution of the 52 epidemic. [15] and [16] In our research we explore use of a concise formulation through which continuously 69 time varying transmission and case fatality rates are modeled with a small number of 70 parameters, which are fit to historical data. Effective reproduction number at any time t, which we define as Rep (t), is the average 234 number of people in a population who are infected per infectious case, where everyone is 235 susceptible to the disease.	./cache/cord-344994-68j6ekiy.txt	./txt/cord-344994-68j6ekiy.txt