id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-230345-bu6vi7xz	Bayes, Cristian	Modelling death rates due to COVID-19: A Bayesian approach	2020-04-06		.txt	text/plain	1624	98	62	Design: With a priori information obtained from the daily number of deaths due to CODIV-19 in China and data from the Peruvian authorities, we constructed a predictive Bayesian non-linear model for the number of deaths in Peru. To this end, we propose to model the daily number of deaths using a Poisson distribution with a rate parameter that is proportional to a Skew Normal density. Using a Bayesian approach and a prior epidemic China COVID-19 history, we forecast the total number of deaths in Peru for the next seventy days. Since China was the first country to have experienced a drastic drop in infections and deaths, we are proposing to incorporate this data, into our Peruvian death rate predictions, through a prior distribution. The predicted rates and their associated 95% prediction credible intervals were obtained, under a Bayesian approach, by considering a non-informative prior and the Chinese official death reports.	./cache/cord-230345-bu6vi7xz.txt	./txt/cord-230345-bu6vi7xz.txt