id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-176131-0vrb3law	Bao, Richard	PECAIQR: A Model for Infectious Disease Applied to the Covid-19 Epidemic	2020-06-17		.txt	text/plain	6603	298	58	We generate longer-time horizon predictions over various 1-month windows in the past, forecast how many medical resources such as ventilators and ICU beds will be needed in counties, and evaluate the efficacy of our model in other countries. To fit the deaths data to the system of differential equations in the PECAIQR model, we performed numerical integration using the scipy odeint package [7] , and traversed the parameter space to find a set of parameters that minimized the least squares error of each fit variable in relation to its observed variables. The methods described in the past two subsections are implemented as options that can be activated with hyper parameters, and collectively they provide several different ways to fit the PECAIQR model and generate the confidence intervals. In sub-figure d) we see that the peak daily deaths value predicted by the model is significantly less than the actual peak that is revealed with more data.	./cache/cord-176131-0vrb3law.txt	./txt/cord-176131-0vrb3law.txt