key: cord-289335-9agazyre
authors: DeWit, Andrew; Shaw, Rajib; Djalante, Riyanti
title: An Integrated Approach to Sustainable Development, National Resilience, and COVID-19 Responses: The Case of Japan
date: 2020-08-13
journal: International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101808
sha: 
doc_id: 289335
cord_uid: 9agazyre

Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic has led to historic economic fallout. To protect public health and stabilize incomes, governments have implemented massive fiscal stimulus packages. These fiscal supports are crucial, though there is concern that sustainable and resilient development will be sacrificed in the rush to preserve incomes and industries. The aim of the paper is to review whether the Japanese governments’ responses in terms of financial stimulus considers longer term resilience and sustainability. This paper reviews pertinent academic literature and publicly available data from governments and organisations. The research is a rapid analysis of emerging information provided by the government of Japan and other international organisations. Using the case of Japan, this paper suggests that it is possible both to protect public health and essential services, while also promoting resilience and sustainability. Japan's integrated solutions show that pandemic response can include accelerated decarbonization and resilient, sustainable development. The paper also warns also that failure to act on long-term sustainability risks increased inequality, higher opportunity costs, cascading hazards, and further retreat from planetary thinking and globalism.

trillion (approximately USD 1 trillion), subsequently increased to JPY 117.1 trillion on April 20. On May 26, that amount was doubled, with the total reaching JPY 234.2.

Most observers expect several more stimulus packages in Japan and elsewhere as the public-health crisis worsens. Measures to recover from the present crisis are virtually certain to include long-term investments in health, energy, water, transport, and other critical infrastructure (Lu, 2020) . Climate-aware individuals and institutions recognize the present crisis as an opportunity -indeed an imperative -for resilient, decarbonizing and equitable structural change. Certainly COVID-19 has dramatically reshaped the policymaking debate by: 1) bolstering public authority over private agency, 2) elevating collaborative planning over reliance on price signals, 3) expanding the scope of all-J o u r n a l P r e -p r o o f hazard resilience to emphasize pandemic risks, and 4) vastly increasing public awareness of the need for holistic resilience. Thus, back on March 31, UN Secretary General Guterres was able to insist that " [t] he recovery from the COVID-19 crisis must lead to a different economy" without attracting a flurry of criticism ).

Yet many questions whether this ideational change will become institutionalized and lead to inclusive resilience. There is no guarantee that national-level countermeasures will come to embody the 2030 Agenda, let alone serve as a basis for productive global cooperation. There is also no consensus on precisely what constitutes best practice in decarbonizing and disaster-resilient infrastructure, and hence no simple guide for selecting and implementing such urban systems.

Many voices equate sustainability with green energy -notable solar and windwithin a context wherein "green recovery" has become the byword for transcending fossil fuels. But simply investing in more solar and wind does not seem sufficient.

Data on global renewable investment between 2010-19 show that China is the leader, followed by the US and Japan (UNEP/BNEF, 2019). But those prodigious investments alone did not reduce emissions, increase equity, and otherwise achieve the 2030 Agenda goals. Equally, if not more important, is the resource-efficiency of urban and semi-urban communities, the inclusivity of governance, and the myriad other factors that are key to the 2030 Agenda.

The scope of the challenge is underscored by International Energy Agency estimates that the COVID-19 shock -though unprecedented -will only lead to an 8% reduction in CO2 emissions in 2020, relative to 2019 (IEA, 2020). To be sure, that decline in emissions accords with the call for annual CO2 reductions of 7.6% to limit warming to 1.5 degrees (Evans, 2020 J o u r n a l P r e -p r o o f Table 2 shows that there were three key pillars in the December 2019 stimulus:

National Resilience Plans (NRP) and disaster reconstruction; economic risk countermeasures; and "Post 2020 Olympic Games" legacy investment in Society 5.0, SDGs-inclusive society. Of course, the 2020 Olympic Games are postponed to 2021, and in the end may not even be held. But that does not mean the investment in critical infrastructures is, ipso facto, wasteful.

The table also separates the JPY 13.2 trillion public spending from the JPY 26 trillion total of public and private spending. The latter figure is achieved via national government support for local government spending (through direct and indirect subsidies), low-interest loans to foster business investment, and similar mechanisms.

In terms of precise content among the three categories, the NRP share is JPY 2. 3 Japan's Integrated Paradigm: Society 5.0, SDGs and National Resilience

Far more important for our purposes here is that Japan's actions are evolving in a holistic paradigm. For one thing, they are part of an integrated, resilience-oriented "Society 5.0" industrial policy regime that predated COVID-19 (Mavrodieva and Shaw, 2020; CAO 2020) . We saw earlier that this policy regime was already heavily funded in Japan's pre-COVID, December 2019 stimulus. And that pre-COVID stimulus comprises a core element of the larger April 20 stimulus noted earlier.

Society 5.0's policy arms include such critical cyber-physical linkages as "post 5G"

next-generation communications, remote-sensing for disaster risk reduction, 

As is shown in 

A key test of any such ostensibly collaborative initiative is how well it diffuses and how purposefully engaged the actors are. By May 1 of 2020, all of Japan's 47 prefectures had adopted their own regional versions of the NRP. Moreover, as a 

Having analysed Japan's financial stimulus in responding to COVID-19 response from section 2 to 3, we turn to examine how integrated financial and economic stimulus can foster a rights-based, low carbon, resilient and sustainable recovery.

The year 2020 was slated to be the "super year" of global action toward sustainability.

The SDGs -also known as the Global Goals -were adopted by all United Nations Member States in 2015 as a universal call to action to end poverty, protect the planet, and ensure that all people enjoy peace and prosperity by 2030. The 17 SDGs are integrated-that is, they recognize that action in one area will affect outcomes in others, and that development must balance social, economic and environmental sustainability. Through the pledge to Leave No One Behind, countries have J o u r n a l P r e -p r o o f committed to fast-track and prioritize progress for the most disadvantaged. That is why the SDGs are designed to achieve several 'zeros', including zero poverty, hunger, AIDS, and discrimination against women and girls. Broad stakeholder participation is needed to reach these ambitious targets. The creativity, knowhow, technology and financial resources from all elements of society are necessary to achieve the SDGs in every context. Moreover, through Nationally Determined Contribution (NDCs), countries show how they plan to meet the Paris Agreement on Climate Change (UNFCCC, 2020). In addition, the Sendai Framework for DRR calls for a comprehensive, multi-hazard and coherent approach (SFDRR, 2015) .

Objectively speaking, integrating the 2030 Agenda is even more important in the midst of COVID-19. As IRENA (2020) puts it, "the goals set out in the United Nations 2030 Agenda and the Paris Agreement can serve as a compass to stay on course during this disorienting period. They can help to ensure that the short-term solutions adopted in the face of COVID-19 are in line with medium-and long-term development and climate objectives." The UN has also emphasized that the recovery from the COVID-19 crisis "must lead to a different economy" (UN, 2020). The

International Resource Panel (IRP) has also pointed out that resource-efficient green stimulus packages can lead to cost savings, new industries, and equitable economic growth (IRP, 2020).

Evn so, public policy is clearly distracted by political polarization, geopolitical tensions, and other factors. In this section, we outline key implications if the fiscal response does not conform with the 2030 Agenda, both at the national level in Japan, and also globally.

Emergency spending only to perpetuate the patently vulnerable status quo risks forfeiting opportunity to reduce a range of negative externalities that erode human health and welfare and have been implicated in the retreat of democracy (EIU, 2020).

Concerning the US, Philip Alston, the UN Special Rapporteur on extreme poverty and human rights, pointed out that "[l]ow-income and poor people face far higher risks from the COVID-19 due to chronic neglect and discrimination, and a muddled, corporate-driven, federal response [that] has failed them" (OHCHR, 2020). The UN J o u r n a l P r e -p r o o f has also warned that coronavirus-driven debt crises threaten poor countries already at risk. It recommends accelerating investment in resilient infrastructure, strengthening social protections, enhancing regulatory frameworks, and strengthening the international financial safety net and framework for debt sustainability. And it strongly advises that this action be coordinated lest the larger opportunity be lost in the gaps among governance and other silos (UNDP, 2020).

Opportunity costs are the pecuniary and other potential benefits forgone when one alternative is chosen over another. Specifically concerning fiscal countermeasures to COVID-19 and its economic fallout, failure to include climate action risks accelerated global warming. We have seen that the scale of COVID-19 counter-measures is already enormous, unprecedented in peacetime. Most countries lack the fiscal capacity and political will to continue such spending beyond one or two years, let alone for decades. Focused investment in public health systems -particularly in least developed countries -could reduce economic costs from future outbreaks as well as contribute to containing the present one (McKibbin and Fernando, 2020) . For example, analyses suggest that in the US alone social distancing measures lead to net benefits of $5.2 trillion (Thunstrom et al, 2020) . These kinds of benefits could be multiplied by making the health investments climate-smart as well.

Global connectedness has led to increased complexity. That complexity carries with it benefits for some but at the same time a hidden cost for all: fragility (Jensen, 9

April 2020). In finance, for example, interconnected institutions benefit from complex networks and reduced transaction costs, but have produced a fragile structure The ongoing fiscal stimulus packages have raised deep concerns among fiscal conservatives, market liberals and others concerning over-reach of tax/debt states.

The nearly inevitable increases in taxation and outrage over the contents of ongoing fiscal relief (eg, for airlines) could further weaken political coalitions supporting climate action and global engagement. In order to achieve a virtuous cycle of J o u r n a l P r e -p r o o f mitigation and adaptation, stakeholder inclusion and co-benefits must be maximized in least-cost solutions. Fiscal and other resources are not infinite, and 2030 Agenda solutions have to be robust against emergent political hazards.

In this regard, we have shown that Japan's National Resilience Program has built a strong foundation for equipping Japan to respond to large-scale crises from COVID-19. Its financial stimulus is characterized by long-term consideration for national and local resilience, along with a vision of Society 5.0. Japan has a powerful track record of managing large scale crises and complex recovery from natural and man-made disasters. It offers a pertinent example of how to do integrated planning, implementation, and revision through multi-stakeholder and increasingly all-hazard platforms. Japan integration of COVID-19 countermeasures and resilience merits closer study for lessons on least-cost and synergistic mitigation and adaptation. We would also urge that Japan use it stimulus packages even more productively, as a window of opportunity for implementing long-term sustainability and resilience.

In conclusion, it is a tall order to draft and implement a coherent strategy of COVID-19 countermeasures coupled with the 2030 Agenda. Global partnerships are critical to formulating and disseminating a global response. That is why goal 17 of the SDGs centres on strengthening global partnerships among national governments, the international community, civil society, the private sector and other stakeholders. The 2030 Agenda thus embodies the shared responsibility and global solidarity essential to making COVID-19 recovery a major step in the long journey back from planetary boundaries and towards sustainable and resilient communities.

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