id sid tid token lemma pos cord-328957-mzi8504f 1 1 key key JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 1 2 : : : cord-328957-mzi8504f 1 3 cord-328957-mzi8504f cord-328957-mzi8504f NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 2 1 authors author NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 2 2 : : : cord-328957-mzi8504f 2 3 Lazebnik Lazebnik NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 2 4 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 2 5 T. T. NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 2 6 ; ; : cord-328957-mzi8504f 2 7 Bunimovich Bunimovich NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 2 8 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 2 9 Mendrazitsky Mendrazitsky NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 2 10 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 2 11 S. S. NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 2 12 title title NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 2 13 : : : cord-328957-mzi8504f 3 1 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 3 2 signature signature NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 3 3 features feature NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 3 4 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 3 5 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 3 6 pandemic pandemic NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 3 7 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 3 8 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 3 9 hybrid hybrid JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 3 10 mathematical mathematical JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 3 11 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 3 12 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 3 13 implications implication NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 3 14 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 3 15 optimal optimal JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 3 16 work work NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 3 17 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 3 18 school school NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 3 19 lockdown lockdown NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 3 20 policy policy NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 3 21 date date NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 3 22 : : : cord-328957-mzi8504f 3 23 2020 2020 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 3 24 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 3 25 11 11 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 3 26 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 3 27 04 04 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 3 28 journal journal NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 3 29 : : : cord-328957-mzi8504f 4 1 nan nan NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 4 2 DOI DOI NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 4 3 : : : cord-328957-mzi8504f 5 1 10.1101/2020.11.02.20224584 10.1101/2020.11.02.20224584 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 5 2 sha sha NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 5 3 : : : cord-328957-mzi8504f 5 4 be708619c5f6de75c0f6ade949462522ce904de3 be708619c5f6de75c0f6ade949462522ce904de3 NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 5 5 doc_id doc_id CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 5 6 : : : cord-328957-mzi8504f 5 7 328957 328957 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 5 8 cord_uid cord_uid NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 5 9 : : : cord-328957-mzi8504f 5 10 mzi8504f mzi8504f . cord-328957-mzi8504f 6 1 Background background NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 6 2 : : : cord-328957-mzi8504f 7 1 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 7 2 coronavirus coronavirus NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 7 3 disease disease NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 7 4 2019 2019 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 7 5 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 7 6 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 7 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 7 8 first first RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 7 9 identified identify VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 7 10 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 7 11 China China NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 7 12 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 7 13 spreads spread VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 7 14 rapidly rapidly RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 7 15 across across IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 7 16 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 7 17 globe globe NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 7 18 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 7 19 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 7 20 considered consider VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 7 21 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 7 22 fastest fast JJS cord-328957-mzi8504f 7 23 moving move VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 7 24 pandemic pandemic NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 7 25 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 7 26 history history NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 7 27 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 8 1 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 8 2 new new JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 8 3 disease disease NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 8 4 has have VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 8 5 challenged challenge VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 8 6 policymakers policymaker NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 8 7 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 8 8 scientists scientist NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 8 9 on on IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 8 10 key key JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 8 11 issues issue NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 8 12 such such JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 8 13 as as IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 8 14 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 8 15 magnitude magnitude NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 8 16 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 8 17 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 8 18 first first JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 8 19 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 8 20 time time NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 8 21 problem problem NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 8 22 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 8 23 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 8 24 susceptibility susceptibility NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 8 25 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 8 26 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 8 27 population population NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 8 28 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 8 29 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 8 30 severity severity NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 8 31 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 8 32 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 8 33 disease disease NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 8 34 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 8 35 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 8 36 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-328957-mzi8504f 8 37 symptoms symptom NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 8 38 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 9 1 Most Most JJS cord-328957-mzi8504f 9 2 countries country NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 9 3 have have VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 9 4 adopted adopt VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 9 5 lockdown lockdown NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 9 6 policies policy NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 9 7 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 9 8 reduce reduce VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 9 9 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 9 10 spatial spatial JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 9 11 spread spread NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 9 12 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 9 13 COVID-19 covid-19 NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 9 14 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 9 15 but but CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 9 16 they -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 9 17 have have VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 9 18 damaged damage VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 9 19 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 9 20 economic economic JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 9 21 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 9 22 moral moral JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 9 23 fabric fabric NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 9 24 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 9 25 society society NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 9 26 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 10 1 Timely timely JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 10 2 action action NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 10 3 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 10 4 prevent prevent VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 10 5 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 10 6 spread spread NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 10 7 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 10 8 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 10 9 virus virus NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 10 10 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 10 11 critical critical JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 10 12 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 10 13 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 10 14 mathematical mathematical JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 10 15 modeling modeling NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 10 16 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 10 17 non non JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 10 18 - - JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 10 19 pharmaceutical pharmaceutical JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 10 20 intervention intervention NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 10 21 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 10 22 NPI NPI NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 10 23 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 10 24 policy policy NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 10 25 management management NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 10 26 has have VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 10 27 proven prove VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 10 28 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 10 29 be be VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 10 30 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 10 31 major major JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 10 32 weapon weapon NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 10 33 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 10 34 this this DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 10 35 fight fight NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 10 36 due due IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 10 37 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 10 38 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 10 39 lack lack NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 10 40 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 10 41 an an DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 10 42 effective effective JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 10 43 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 10 44 vaccine vaccine NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 10 45 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 11 1 Methods method NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 11 2 : : : cord-328957-mzi8504f 11 3 We -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 11 4 present present VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 11 5 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 11 6 new new JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 11 7 hybrid hybrid JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 11 8 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 11 9 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 11 10 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 11 11 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 11 12 using use VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 11 13 both both CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 11 14 an an DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 11 15 age age NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 11 16 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 11 17 structured structure VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 11 18 mathematical mathematical JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 11 19 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 11 20 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 11 21 spatio spatio JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 11 22 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 11 23 temporal temporal JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 11 24 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 11 25 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 11 26 silico silico NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 11 27 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 11 28 analyzing analyze VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 11 29 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 11 30 data datum NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 11 31 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 11 32 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 11 33 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 11 34 Israel Israel NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 11 35 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 12 1 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 12 2 age age NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 12 3 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 12 4 structured structure VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 12 5 mathematical mathematical JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 12 6 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 12 7 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 12 8 based base VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 12 9 on on IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 12 10 SIRD SIRD NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 12 11 two two CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 12 12 age age NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 12 13 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 12 14 class class NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 12 15 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 12 16 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 13 1 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 13 2 spatial spatial JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 13 3 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 13 4 examines examine VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 13 5 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 13 6 circle circle NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 13 7 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 13 8 day day NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 13 9 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 13 10 night night NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 13 11 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 13 12 with with IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 13 13 one one CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 13 14 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 13 15 hour hour NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 13 16 resolution resolution NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 13 17 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 13 18 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 13 19 three three CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 13 20 main main JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 13 21 locations location NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 13 22 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 13 23 work work NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 13 24 / / SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 13 25 school school NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 13 26 or or CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 13 27 home home NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 13 28 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 13 29 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 13 30 every every DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 13 31 individual individual NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 13 32 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 14 1 Results result NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 14 2 : : : cord-328957-mzi8504f 15 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 15 2 determine determine VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 15 3 mathematically mathematically RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 15 4 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 15 5 basic basic JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 15 6 reproduction reproduction NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 15 7 number number NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 15 8 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 15 9 R_0 R_0 NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 15 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 15 11 via via IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 15 12 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 15 13 next next JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 15 14 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 15 15 generation generation NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 15 16 matrix matrix NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 15 17 based base VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 15 18 on on IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 15 19 Markov Markov NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 15 20 chain chain NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 15 21 theory theory NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 15 22 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 16 1 Then then RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 16 2 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 16 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 16 4 analyze analyze VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 16 5 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 16 6 stability stability NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 16 7 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 16 8 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 16 9 equilibria equilibrium NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 16 10 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 16 11 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 16 12 effects effect NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 16 13 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 16 14 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 16 15 significant significant JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 16 16 differences difference NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 16 17 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 16 18 infection infection NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 16 19 rates rate NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 16 20 between between IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 16 21 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 16 22 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 16 23 adults adult NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 16 24 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 17 1 Using use VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 17 2 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 17 3 hybrid hybrid JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 17 4 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 17 5 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 17 6 we -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 17 7 have have VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 17 8 introduced introduce VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 17 9 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 17 10 method method NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 17 11 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 17 12 estimating estimate VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 17 13 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 17 14 reproduction reproduction NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 17 15 number number NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 17 16 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 17 17 an an DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 17 18 epidemic epidemic NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 17 19 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 17 20 real real JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 17 21 time time NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 17 22 from from IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 17 23 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 17 24 data datum NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 17 25 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 17 26 daily daily JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 17 27 notification notification NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 17 28 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 17 29 cases case NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 17 30 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 18 1 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 18 2 results result NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 18 3 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 18 4 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 18 5 proposed propose VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 18 6 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 18 7 are be VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 18 8 confirmed confirm VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 18 9 by by IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 18 10 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 18 11 Israeli israeli JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 18 12 Lockdown Lockdown NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 18 13 experience experience NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 18 14 with with IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 18 15 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 18 16 mean mean JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 18 17 square square JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 18 18 error error NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 18 19 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 18 20 0.205 0.205 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 18 21 over over IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 18 22 two two CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 18 23 weeks week NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 18 24 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 19 1 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 19 2 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 19 3 was be VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 19 4 able able JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 19 5 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 19 6 predict predict VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 19 7 changes change NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 19 8 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 19 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 19 10 R_0 R_0 NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 19 11 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 19 12 by by IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 19 13 opening open VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 19 14 schools school NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 19 15 on on IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 19 16 September September NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 19 17 1 1 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 19 18 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 19 19 2020 2020 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 19 20 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 19 21 resulting result VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 19 22 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 19 23 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 19 24 R_0 R_0 NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 19 25 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 19 26 = = NFP cord-328957-mzi8504f 20 1 2.2 2.2 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 20 2 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 20 3 which which WDT cord-328957-mzi8504f 20 4 entailed entail VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 20 5 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 20 6 month month NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 20 7 quarantine quarantine NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 20 8 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 20 9 all all DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 20 10 areas area NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 20 11 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 20 12 life life NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 20 13 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 21 1 According accord VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 21 2 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 21 3 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 21 4 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 21 5 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 21 6 by by IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 21 7 extending extend VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 21 8 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 21 9 school school NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 21 10 day day NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 21 11 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 21 12 9 9 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 21 13 hours hour NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 21 14 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 21 15 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 21 16 assuming assume VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 21 17 that that IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 21 18 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 21 19 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 21 20 adults adult NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 21 21 go go VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 21 22 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 21 23 school school NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 21 24 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 21 25 work work VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 21 26 every every DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 21 27 day day NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 21 28 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 21 29 except except IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 21 30 weekends weekend NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 21 31 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 21 32 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 21 33 we -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 21 34 get get VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 21 35 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 21 36 significant significant JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 21 37 reduction reduction NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 21 38 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 21 39 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 21 40 R_0 R_0 NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 21 41 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 21 42 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 21 43 1.45 1.45 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 21 44 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 22 1 Finally finally RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 22 2 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 22 3 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 22 4 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 22 5 based base VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 22 6 analytical analytical JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 22 7 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 22 8 numerical numerical JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 22 9 results result NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 22 10 are be VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 22 11 obtained obtain VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 22 12 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 22 13 displayed display VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 22 14 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 22 15 graphical graphical JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 22 16 profiles profile NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 22 17 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 23 1 Conclusions conclusion NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 23 2 : : : cord-328957-mzi8504f 24 1 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 24 2 use use NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 24 3 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 24 4 mathematical mathematical JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 24 5 models model NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 24 6 promises promise VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 24 7 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 24 8 reduce reduce VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 24 9 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 24 10 uncertainty uncertainty NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 24 11 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 24 12 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 24 13 choice choice NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 24 14 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 24 15 Lockdown Lockdown NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 24 16 policies policy NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 24 17 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 25 1 Our -PRON- PRP$ cord-328957-mzi8504f 25 2 unique unique JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 25 3 use use NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 25 4 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 25 5 contact contact NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 25 6 details detail NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 25 7 from from IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 25 8 2 2 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 25 9 classes class NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 25 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 25 11 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 25 12 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 25 13 adults adult NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 25 14 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 25 15 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 25 16 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 25 17 interaction interaction NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 25 18 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 25 19 populations population NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 25 20 depending depend VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 25 21 on on IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 25 22 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 25 23 time time NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 25 24 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 25 25 day day NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 25 26 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 25 27 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 25 28 cycle cycle NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 25 29 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 25 30 day day NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 25 31 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 25 32 night night NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 25 33 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 25 34 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 25 35 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 25 36 several several JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 25 37 physical physical JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 25 38 locations location NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 25 39 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 25 40 allowed allow VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 25 41 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 25 42 new new JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 25 43 look look NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 25 44 at at IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 25 45 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 25 46 differential differential JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 25 47 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 25 48 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 25 49 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 25 50 spread spread NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 25 51 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 25 52 control control NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 25 53 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 25 54 infection infection NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 25 55 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 26 1 Using use VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 26 2 knowledge knowledge NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 26 3 about about IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 26 4 how how WRB cord-328957-mzi8504f 26 5 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 26 6 length length NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 26 7 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 26 8 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 26 9 work work NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 26 10 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 26 11 school school NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 26 12 day day NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 26 13 affects affect VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 26 14 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 26 15 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 26 16 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 26 17 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 26 18 spread spread NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 26 19 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 26 20 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 26 21 disease disease NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 26 22 can can MD cord-328957-mzi8504f 26 23 be be VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 26 24 useful useful JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 26 25 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 26 26 improving improve VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 26 27 control control NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 26 28 programs program NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 26 29 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 26 30 mitigation mitigation NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 26 31 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 26 32 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 26 33 policy policy NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 26 34 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 27 1 Introduction introduction NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 27 2 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 27 3 related related JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 27 4 work work NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 27 5 10 10 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 28 1 At at IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 28 2 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 28 3 beginning beginning NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 28 4 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 28 5 2020 2020 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 28 6 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 28 7 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 28 8 novel novel JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 28 9 severe severe JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 28 10 acute acute JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 28 11 respiratory respiratory JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 28 12 syndrome syndrome NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 28 13 coronavirus coronavirus NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 28 14 11 11 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 28 15 2 2 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 28 16 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 28 17 SARS SARS NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 28 18 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 28 19 CoV-2 CoV-2 NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 28 20 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 28 21 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 28 22 also also RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 28 23 known know VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 28 24 as as IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 28 25 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 28 26 reached reach VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 28 27 Europe Europe NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 28 28 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 28 29 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 28 30 western western JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 28 31 world world NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 28 32 12 12 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 28 33 from from IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 28 34 China China NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 28 35 [ [ -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 28 36 1 1 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 28 37 ] ] -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 28 38 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 29 1 Similar similar JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 29 2 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 29 3 other other JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 29 4 diseases disease NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 29 5 from from IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 29 6 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 29 7 coronavirus coronavirus NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 29 8 family family NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 29 9 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 29 10 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 29 11 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 29 12 13 13 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 29 13 transmitted transmit VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 29 14 human human NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 29 15 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 29 16 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 29 17 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 29 18 human human NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 29 19 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 29 20 but but CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 29 21 it -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 29 22 turned turn VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 29 23 out out RP cord-328957-mzi8504f 29 24 that that IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 29 25 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 29 26 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 29 27 more more RBR cord-328957-mzi8504f 29 28 infectious infectious JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 29 29 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 29 30 14 14 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 29 31 transmissible transmissible JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 29 32 than than IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 29 33 previous previous JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 29 34 coronavirus coronavirus NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 29 35 [ [ -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 29 36 2 2 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 29 37 ] ] -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 29 38 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 30 1 15 15 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 31 1 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 31 2 World World NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 31 3 Health Health NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 31 4 Organization Organization NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 31 5 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 31 6 WHO who WP cord-328957-mzi8504f 31 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 31 8 has have VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 31 9 declared declare VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 31 10 COVID-2019 COVID-2019 NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 31 11 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 31 12 public public JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 31 13 health health NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 31 14 16 16 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 31 15 emergency emergency NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 31 16 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 31 17 international international JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 31 18 concern concern NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 31 19 [ [ -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 31 20 3 3 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 31 21 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 31 22 4 4 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 31 23 ] ] -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 31 24 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 32 1 Currently currently RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 32 2 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 32 3 due due IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 32 4 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 32 5 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 32 6 lack lack NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 32 7 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 32 8 an an DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 32 9 efficient efficient JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 32 10 vaccine vaccine NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 32 11 or or CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 32 12 17 17 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 32 13 clinical clinical JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 32 14 treatment treatment NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 32 15 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 32 16 COVID-19 covid-19 VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 32 17 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 32 18 policy policy NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 32 19 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 32 20 makers maker NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 32 21 are be VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 32 22 forced force VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 32 23 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 32 24 rely rely VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 32 25 on on IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 32 26 non non JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 32 27 - - JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 32 28 pharmaceutical pharmaceutical JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 32 29 18 18 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 32 30 intervention intervention NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 32 31 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 32 32 NPI NPI NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 32 33 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 32 34 policies policy NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 32 35 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 32 36 reduce reduce VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 32 37 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 32 38 infection infection NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 32 39 rate rate NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 32 40 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 32 41 control control VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 32 42 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 32 43 epidemic epidemic NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 32 44 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 33 1 A a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 33 2 few few JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 33 3 19 19 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 33 4 examples example NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 33 5 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 33 6 NPI npi NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 33 7 policies policy NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 33 8 are be VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 33 9 masks mask NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 33 10 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 33 11 social social JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 33 12 distancing distancing NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 33 13 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 33 14 work work NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 33 15 capsules capsule NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 33 16 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 33 17 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 33 18 partial partial JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 33 19 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 33 20 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 33 21 full full JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 33 22 20 20 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 33 23 lockdown lockdown NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 33 24 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 33 25 central central JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 33 26 locations location NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 33 27 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 33 28 restaurants restaurant NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 33 29 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 33 30 malls mall NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 33 31 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 33 32 offices office NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 33 33 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 33 34 etc etc FW cord-328957-mzi8504f 33 35 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 33 36 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 33 37 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 34 1 These these DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 34 2 policies policy NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 34 3 reduce reduce VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 34 4 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 34 5 21 21 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 34 6 infection infection NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 34 7 rate rate NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 34 8 but but CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 34 9 have have VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 34 10 an an DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 34 11 influence influence NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 34 12 on on IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 34 13 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 34 14 economy economy NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 34 15 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 34 16 healthcare healthcare NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 34 17 system system NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 34 18 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 34 19 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 34 20 social social JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 34 21 life life NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 34 22 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 35 1 22 22 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 35 2 Multiple multiple JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 35 3 studies study NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 35 4 have have VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 35 5 been be VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 35 6 conducted conduct VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 35 7 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 35 8 study study VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 35 9 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 35 10 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 35 11 general general JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 35 12 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 35 13 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 35 14 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 35 15 23 23 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 35 16 epidemic epidemic NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 35 17 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 35 18 particular particular JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 35 19 from from IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 35 20 both both DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 35 21 biological biological JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 35 22 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 35 23 epidemiological epidemiological JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 35 24 perspective perspective NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 35 25 providing provide VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 35 26 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 35 27 24 24 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 35 28 information information NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 35 29 about about IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 35 30 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 35 31 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 35 32 behavior behavior NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 35 33 with with IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 35 34 relevant relevant JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 35 35 data datum NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 35 36 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 35 37 later later JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 35 38 modeling model VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 35 39 [ [ -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 35 40 1 1 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 35 41 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 35 42 [ [ -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 35 43 5 5 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 35 44 ] ] -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 35 45 [ [ -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 35 46 6 6 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 35 47 ] ] -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 35 48 [ [ -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 35 49 7 7 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 35 50 ] ] -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 36 1 [ [ -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 36 2 8 8 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 36 3 ] ] -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 36 4 [ [ -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 36 5 9 9 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 36 6 ] ] -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 36 7 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 37 1 25 25 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 38 1 In in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 38 2 addition addition NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 38 3 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 38 4 these these DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 38 5 studies study NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 38 6 examine examine VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 38 7 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 38 8 clinical clinical JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 38 9 characteristics characteristic NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 38 10 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 38 11 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 38 12 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 38 13 enabling enable VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 38 14 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 38 15 26 26 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 38 16 deeper deep JJR cord-328957-mzi8504f 38 17 understanding understanding NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 38 18 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 38 19 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 38 20 disease disease NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 38 21 spreads spread VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 38 22 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 38 23 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 38 24 population population NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 38 25 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 39 1 27 27 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 39 2 Mathematical mathematical JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 39 3 models model NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 39 4 are be VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 39 5 shown show VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 39 6 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 39 7 be be VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 39 8 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 39 9 useful useful JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 39 10 tool tool NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 39 11 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 39 12 policy policy NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 39 13 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 39 14 makers maker NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 39 15 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 39 16 make make VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 39 17 data-28 data-28 NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 39 18 driven drive VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 39 19 decisions decision NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 39 20 based base VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 39 21 on on IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 39 22 investigation investigation NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 39 23 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 39 24 different different JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 39 25 scenarios scenario NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 39 26 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 39 27 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-328957-mzi8504f 39 28 outcomes outcome NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 39 29 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 39 30 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 39 31 29 29 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 39 32 controlled control VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 39 33 manner manner NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 39 34 [ [ -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 39 35 5 5 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 39 36 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 39 37 10 10 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 39 38 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 39 39 11 11 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 39 40 ] ] -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 39 41 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 40 1 These these DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 40 2 mathematical mathematical JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 40 3 models model NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 40 4 can can MD cord-328957-mzi8504f 40 5 be be VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 40 6 divided divide VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 40 7 into into IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 40 8 two two CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 40 9 main main JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 40 10 30 30 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 40 11 groups group NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 40 12 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 41 1 31 31 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 42 1 First first RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 42 2 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 42 3 models model NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 42 4 aim aim VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 42 5 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 42 6 predict predict VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 42 7 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 42 8 different different JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 42 9 parameters parameter NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 42 10 such such JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 42 11 as as IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 42 12 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 42 13 total total JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 42 14 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 42 15 32 32 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 42 16 related related JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 42 17 death death NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 42 18 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 42 19 peak peak NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 42 20 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 42 21 hospitalized hospitalize VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 42 22 individuals individual NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 42 23 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 42 24 given give VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 42 25 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 42 26 historical historical JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 42 27 data datum NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 42 28 up up IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 42 29 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 42 30 some some DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 42 31 33 33 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 42 32 point point NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 42 33 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 43 1 For for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 43 2 example example NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 43 3 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 43 4 Nesteruk Nesteruk NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 43 5 [ [ -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 43 6 12 12 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 43 7 ] ] -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 43 8 used use VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 43 9 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 43 10 data datum NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 43 11 from from IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 43 12 January January NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 43 13 16 16 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 43 14 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 43 15 February February NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 43 16 9 9 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 43 17 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 43 18 2020 2020 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 43 19 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 43 20 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 43 21 34 34 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 43 22 from from IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 43 23 mainland mainland NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 43 24 China China NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 43 25 with with IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 43 26 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 43 27 continuous continuous JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 43 28 SIR SIR NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 43 29 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 43 30 S s NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 43 31 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 43 32 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 43 33 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 43 34 I -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 43 35 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 43 36 infected infect VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 43 37 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 43 38 R r NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 43 39 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 43 40 recovered recover VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 43 41 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 43 42 35 35 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 43 43 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 43 44 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 44 1 Nesteruk Nesteruk NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 44 2 [ [ -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 44 3 12 12 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 44 4 ] ] -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 44 5 fitted fit VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 44 6 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 44 7 SIR SIR NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 44 8 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 44 9 using use VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 44 10 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 44 11 least least JJS cord-328957-mzi8504f 44 12 mean mean JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 44 13 square square JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 44 14 method method NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 44 15 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 44 16 which which WDT cord-328957-mzi8504f 44 17 36 36 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 44 18 resulted result VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 44 19 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 44 20 poor poor JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 44 21 fitting fitting NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 44 22 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 44 23 later later RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 44 24 officially officially RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 44 25 confirmed confirm VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 44 26 infected infected JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 44 27 cases case NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 44 28 [ [ -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 44 29 4 4 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 44 30 ] ] -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 44 31 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 45 1 This this DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 45 2 can can MD cord-328957-mzi8504f 45 3 be be VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 45 4 37 37 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 45 5 explained explain VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 45 6 by by IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 45 7 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 45 8 fact fact NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 45 9 that that IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 45 10 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 45 11 SIR SIR NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 45 12 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 45 13 with with IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 45 14 no no DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 45 15 modification modification NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 45 16 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 45 17 too too RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 45 18 simplistic simplistic JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 45 19 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 45 20 38 38 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 45 21 correctly correctly RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 45 22 represent represent VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 45 23 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 45 24 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 45 25 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 45 26 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 45 27 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 45 28 epidemic epidemic NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 45 29 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 46 1 In in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 46 2 [ [ -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 46 3 12 12 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 46 4 ] ] -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 46 5 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 46 6 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 46 7 simple simple JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 46 8 calculation calculation NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 46 9 39 39 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 46 10 method method NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 46 11 was be VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 46 12 proposed propose VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 46 13 that that WDT cord-328957-mzi8504f 46 14 allows allow VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 46 15 quick quick JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 46 16 results result NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 46 17 which which WDT cord-328957-mzi8504f 46 18 can can MD cord-328957-mzi8504f 46 19 predict predict VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 46 20 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 46 21 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 46 22 spread spread VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 46 23 40 40 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 46 24 with with IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 46 25 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 46 26 fine fine JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 46 27 accuracy accuracy NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 46 28 if if IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 46 29 calculated calculate VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 46 30 using use VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 46 31 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 46 32 very very RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 46 33 accurate accurate JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 46 34 data datum NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 46 35 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 46 36 infections infection NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 46 37 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 46 38 recoveries recovery NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 46 39 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 47 1 41 41 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 47 2 Model Model NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 47 3 proposed propose VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 47 4 by by IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 47 5 Tuite Tuite NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 47 6 et et NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 47 7 al al NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 47 8 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 48 1 [ [ -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 48 2 11 11 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 48 3 ] ] -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 48 4 which which WDT cord-328957-mzi8504f 48 5 used use VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 48 6 data datum NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 48 7 from from IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 48 8 January January NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 48 9 25 25 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 48 10 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 48 11 March March NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 48 12 1 1 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 48 13 42 42 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 48 14 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 48 15 2020 2020 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 48 16 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 48 17 Ontario Ontario NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 48 18 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 48 19 Canada Canada NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 48 20 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 48 21 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 48 22 SEIR SEIR NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 49 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 49 2 E E NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 49 3 - - JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 49 4 exposed expose VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 49 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 49 6 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 49 7 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 49 8 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 49 9 extension extension NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 49 10 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 49 11 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 49 12 SIR SIR NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 49 13 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 49 14 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 50 1 43 43 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 50 2 Authors author NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 50 3 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 50 4 [ [ -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 50 5 11 11 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 50 6 ] ] -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 50 7 took take VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 50 8 into into IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 50 9 consideration consideration NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 50 10 four four CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 50 11 levels level NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 50 12 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 50 13 infection infection NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 50 14 severity severity NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 50 15 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 50 16 social social JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 50 17 isolation isolation NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 50 18 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 50 19 44 44 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 50 20 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 50 21 exposed expose VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 50 22 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 50 23 infected infected JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 50 24 states state NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 50 25 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 50 26 hospitalization hospitalization NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 50 27 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 50 28 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 50 29 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 50 30 death death NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 50 31 state state NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 50 32 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 51 1 [ [ -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 51 2 11 11 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 51 3 ] ] -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 51 4 estimated estimate VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 51 5 45 45 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 51 6 that that IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 51 7 56 56 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 51 8 % % NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 51 9 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 51 10 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 51 11 Ontario Ontario NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 51 12 population population NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 51 13 would would MD cord-328957-mzi8504f 51 14 be be VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 51 15 infected infect VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 51 16 over over IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 51 17 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 51 18 course course NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 51 19 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 51 20 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 51 21 epidemic epidemic NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 51 22 46 46 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 51 23 with with IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 51 24 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 51 25 peak peak NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 51 26 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 51 27 55500 55500 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 51 28 cases case NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 51 29 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 51 30 intensive intensive JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 51 31 care care NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 51 32 units unit NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 51 33 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 51 34 ICU ICU NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 51 35 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 51 36 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 51 37 107000 107000 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 51 38 total total JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 51 39 cases case NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 51 40 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 52 1 At at IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 52 2 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 52 3 47 47 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 52 4 same same JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 52 5 time time NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 52 6 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 52 7 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 52 8 all all DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 52 9 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 52 10 Canada Canada NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 52 11 there there EX cord-328957-mzi8504f 52 12 are be VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 52 13 only only RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 52 14 half half NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 52 15 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 52 16 this this DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 52 17 number number NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 52 18 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 52 19 infections infection NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 52 20 [ [ -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 52 21 4 4 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 52 22 ] ] -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 52 23 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 53 1 This this DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 53 2 48 48 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 53 3 error error NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 53 4 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 53 5 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-328957-mzi8504f 53 6 prediction prediction NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 53 7 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 53 8 associated associate VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 53 9 with with IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 53 10 incomplete incomplete JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 53 11 information information NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 53 12 due due IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 53 13 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 53 14 lower low JJR cord-328957-mzi8504f 53 15 frequency frequency NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 53 16 49 49 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 53 17 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 53 18 tests test NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 53 19 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 53 20 inaccurate inaccurate JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 53 21 ICU ICU NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 53 22 records record NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 53 23 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 54 1 Nevertheless nevertheless RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 54 2 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 54 3 Tuite Tuite NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 54 4 et et FW cord-328957-mzi8504f 54 5 al al NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 54 6 's 's POS cord-328957-mzi8504f 54 7 [ [ -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 54 8 11 11 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 54 9 ] ] -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 54 10 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 54 11 presents present VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 54 12 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 54 13 50 50 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 54 14 more more RBR cord-328957-mzi8504f 54 15 detailed detailed JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 54 16 dynamic dynamic NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 54 17 between between IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 54 18 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 54 19 infected infected JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 54 20 population population NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 54 21 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 54 22 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 54 23 healthcare healthcare NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 54 24 response response NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 54 25 51 51 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 54 26 which which WDT cord-328957-mzi8504f 54 27 policy policy NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 54 28 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 54 29 makers maker NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 54 30 can can MD cord-328957-mzi8504f 54 31 take take VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 54 32 into into IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 54 33 consideration consideration NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 54 34 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 55 1 52 52 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 55 2 Ivorra Ivorra NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 55 3 et et NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 55 4 al al NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 55 5 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 56 1 [ [ -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 56 2 13 13 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 56 3 ] ] -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 56 4 proposed propose VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 56 5 nine nine CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 56 6 states state NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 56 7 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 56 8 divides divide VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 56 9 individuals individual NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 56 10 into into IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 56 11 isolated isolate VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 56 12 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 56 13 hospi-53 hospi-53 NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 56 14 talized talize VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 56 15 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 56 16 or or CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 56 17 dead dead JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 56 18 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 57 1 In in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 57 2 addition addition NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 57 3 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 57 4 authors author NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 57 5 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 57 6 [ [ -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 57 7 13 13 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 57 8 ] ] -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 57 9 take take VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 57 10 into into IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 57 11 consideration consideration NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 57 12 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 57 13 fact fact NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 57 14 that that IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 57 15 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 57 16 54 54 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 57 17 recorded record VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 57 18 confirmed confirm VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 57 19 data data NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 57 20 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 57 21 under under RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 57 22 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 57 23 sampled sample VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 57 24 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 58 1 55 55 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 59 1 Furthermore furthermore RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 59 2 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 59 3 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 59 4 machine machine NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 59 5 learning learn VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 59 6 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 59 7 based base VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 59 8 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 59 9 was be VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 59 10 proposed propose VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 59 11 by by IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 59 12 Allam Allam NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 59 13 et et FW cord-328957-mzi8504f 59 14 al al NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 59 15 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 60 1 [ [ -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 60 2 14 14 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 60 3 ] ] -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 60 4 using use VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 60 5 56 56 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 60 6 several several JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 60 7 machine machine NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 60 8 learning learn VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 60 9 algorithms algorithm NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 60 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 60 11 Knn Knn NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 60 12 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 60 13 Random Random NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 60 14 Forest Forest NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 60 15 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 60 16 Support Support NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 60 17 Vector Vector NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 60 18 Machine Machine NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 60 19 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 60 20 on on IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 60 21 57 57 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 60 22 data datum NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 60 23 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 60 24 53 53 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 60 25 clinical clinical JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 60 26 cases case NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 60 27 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 61 1 This this DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 61 2 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 61 3 was be VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 61 4 used use VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 61 5 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 61 6 predict predict VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 61 7 infection infection NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 61 8 severity severity NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 61 9 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 61 10 spread spread NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 61 11 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 62 1 58 58 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 63 1 However however RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 63 2 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 63 3 this this DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 63 4 approach approach NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 63 5 suffers suffer VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 63 6 from from IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 63 7 an an DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 63 8 imbalanced imbalanced JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 63 9 sample sample NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 63 10 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 63 11 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 63 12 distribution distribution NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 63 13 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 63 14 severity severity NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 63 15 59 59 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 63 16 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 63 17 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 63 18 population population NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 63 19 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 63 20 as as IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 63 21 simple simple JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 63 22 or or CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 63 23 asymptomatic asymptomatic JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 63 24 cases case NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 63 25 are be VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 63 26 not not RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 63 27 reported report VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 63 28 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 63 29 leading lead VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 63 30 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 63 31 poor poor JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 63 32 60 60 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 63 33 representation representation NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 63 34 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 63 35 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 63 36 real real JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 63 37 dynamic dynamic NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 63 38 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 64 1 61 61 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 65 1 Second second RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 65 2 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 65 3 models model NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 65 4 aim aim VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 65 5 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 65 6 analyze analyze VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 65 7 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 65 8 optimize optimize VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 65 9 NPI NPI NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 65 10 policies policy NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 65 11 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 66 1 A a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 66 2 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 66 3 proposed propose VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 66 4 by by IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 66 5 62 62 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 66 6 Zhao Zhao NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 66 7 et et NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 66 8 al al NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 66 9 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 67 1 [ [ -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 67 2 15 15 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 67 3 ] ] -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 67 4 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 67 5 an an DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 67 6 extension extension NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 67 7 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 67 8 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 67 9 SEIR SEIR NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 67 10 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 67 11 where where WRB cord-328957-mzi8504f 67 12 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 67 13 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 67 14 population population NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 67 15 63 63 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 67 16 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 67 17 separated separate VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 67 18 into into IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 67 19 two two CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 67 20 groups group NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 67 21 : : : cord-328957-mzi8504f 67 22 individuals individual NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 67 23 not not RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 67 24 taking take VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 67 25 infection infection NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 67 26 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 67 27 prevention prevention NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 67 28 actions action NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 67 29 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 67 30 64 64 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 67 31 people people NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 67 32 taking take VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 67 33 infection infection NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 67 34 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 67 35 prevention prevention NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 67 36 actions action NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 67 37 as as IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 67 38 an an DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 67 39 NPI NPI NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 67 40 policy policy NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 67 41 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 68 1 In in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 68 2 addition addition NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 68 3 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 68 4 authors author NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 68 5 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 68 6 [ [ -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 68 7 15 15 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 68 8 ] ] -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 68 9 65 65 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 68 10 included include VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 68 11 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 68 12 probability probability NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 68 13 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 68 14 willingness willingness NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 68 15 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 68 16 take take VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 68 17 infection infection NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 68 18 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 68 19 prevention prevention NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 68 20 actions action NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 68 21 with with IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 68 22 changes change NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 68 23 66 66 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 68 24 over over IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 68 25 time time NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 68 26 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 69 1 They -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 69 2 predicted predict VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 69 3 148.5 148.5 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 69 4 thousand thousand CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 69 5 infections infection NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 69 6 by by IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 69 7 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 69 8 end end NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 69 9 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 69 10 May May NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 69 11 2020 2020 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 69 12 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 69 13 Wuhan Wuhan NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 69 14 67 67 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 69 15 alone alone RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 69 16 while while IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 69 17 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 69 18 all all DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 69 19 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 69 20 China China NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 69 21 there there EX cord-328957-mzi8504f 69 22 were be VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 69 23 84.5 84.5 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 69 24 thousand thousand CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 69 25 infections infection NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 69 26 at at IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 69 27 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 69 28 same same JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 69 29 time time NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 69 30 [ [ -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 69 31 4 4 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 69 32 ] ] -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 69 33 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 70 1 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 70 2 68 68 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 70 3 authors author NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 70 4 introduces introduce VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 70 5 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 70 6 stochastic stochastic JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 70 7 element element NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 70 8 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 70 9 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 70 10 SEIR SEIR NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 70 11 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 70 12 making make VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 70 13 it -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 70 14 more more RBR cord-328957-mzi8504f 70 15 robust robust JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 70 16 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 70 17 69 69 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 70 18 social social JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 70 19 changes change NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 70 20 happened happen VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 70 21 during during IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 70 22 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 70 23 epidemic epidemic NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 70 24 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 71 1 70 70 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 72 1 Di Di NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 72 2 Domenico Domenico NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 72 3 et et NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 72 4 al al NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 72 5 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 73 1 [ [ -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 73 2 16 16 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 73 3 ] ] -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 73 4 used use VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 73 5 data datum NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 73 6 from from IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 73 7 March March NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 73 8 17 17 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 73 9 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 73 10 May May NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 73 11 11 11 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 74 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 74 2 2020)Île 2020)île CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 74 3 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 74 4 de de NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 74 5 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 74 6 France France NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 74 7 with with IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 74 8 71 71 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 74 9 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 74 10 stochastic stochastic JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 74 11 age age NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 74 12 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 74 13 structured structure VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 74 14 transmission transmission NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 74 15 extension extension NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 74 16 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 74 17 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 74 18 SEIR SEIR NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 74 19 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 74 20 integrating integrate VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 74 21 data datum NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 74 22 72 72 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 74 23 on on IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 74 24 age age NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 74 25 profile profile NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 74 26 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 74 27 social social JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 74 28 contacts contact NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 74 29 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 74 30 four four CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 74 31 age age NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 74 32 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 74 33 based base VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 74 34 classes class NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 74 35 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 75 1 In in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 75 2 this this DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 75 3 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 75 4 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 75 5 hospitalization hospitalization NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 75 6 73 73 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 75 7 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 75 8 with with IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 75 9 ICU ICU NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 75 10 cases case NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 75 11 are be VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 75 12 taken take VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 75 13 into into IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 75 14 consideration consideration NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 75 15 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 75 16 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 75 17 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 75 18 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 76 1 Model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 76 2 shows show VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 76 3 that that IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 76 4 74 74 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 76 5 during during IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 76 6 full full JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 76 7 lockdown lockdown NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 76 8 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 76 9 reproductive reproductive JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 76 10 number number NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 76 11 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 76 12 estimated estimate VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 76 13 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 76 14 be be VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 76 15 0.68 0.68 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 76 16 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 76 17 due due IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 76 18 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 76 19 an an DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 76 20 81 81 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 76 21 % % NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 76 22 75 75 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 76 23 reduction reduction NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 76 24 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 76 25 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 76 26 average average JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 76 27 number number NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 76 28 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 76 29 contacts contact NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 76 30 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 77 1 These these DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 77 2 results result NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 77 3 show show VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 77 4 that that IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 77 5 dividing divide VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 77 6 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 77 7 76 76 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 77 8 population population NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 77 9 into into IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 77 10 several several JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 77 11 age age NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 77 12 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 77 13 based base VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 77 14 classes class NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 77 15 better well RBR cord-328957-mzi8504f 77 16 represent represent VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 77 17 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 77 18 spread spread NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 77 19 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 77 20 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 77 21 from from IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 77 22 77 77 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 77 23 an an DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 77 24 epidemiological epidemiological JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 77 25 perspective perspective NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 77 26 [ [ -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 77 27 17 17 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 77 28 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 77 29 18 18 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 77 30 ] ] -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 77 31 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 78 1 In in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 78 2 this this DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 78 3 paper paper NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 78 4 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 78 5 we -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 78 6 provide provide VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 78 7 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 78 8 study study VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 78 9 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 78 10 more more RBR cord-328957-mzi8504f 78 11 accurate accurate JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 78 12 spatio spatio JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 78 13 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 78 14 temporal temporal JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 78 15 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 78 16 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 78 17 79 79 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 78 18 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 78 19 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 78 20 transmission transmission NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 78 21 by by IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 78 22 using use VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 78 23 individual individual JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 78 24 two two CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 78 25 age age NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 78 26 classes class NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 79 1 SIRD SIRD NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 79 2 named name VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 79 3 hybrid hybrid NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 79 4 80 80 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 79 5 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 79 6 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 79 7 D d NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 79 8 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 79 9 death death NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 79 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 79 11 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 79 12 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 80 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 80 2 study study VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 80 3 two two CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 80 4 important important JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 80 5 factors factor NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 80 6 concerning concern VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 80 7 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 80 8 diffusion diffusion NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 80 9 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 80 10 81 81 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 80 11 COVID-19 covid-19 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 80 12 : : : cord-328957-mzi8504f 80 13 schooling schooling NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 80 14 / / SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 80 15 working work VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 80 16 hours hour NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 80 17 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 81 1 physical physical JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 81 2 location location NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 81 3 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 81 4 infected infected JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 81 5 population population NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 81 6 has have VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 81 7 82 82 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 81 8 provided provide VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 81 9 new new JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 81 10 insights insight NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 81 11 into into IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 81 12 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 81 13 epidemic epidemic NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 81 14 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 81 15 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 82 1 Based base VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 82 2 on on IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 82 3 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 82 4 different different JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 82 5 impact impact NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 82 6 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 82 7 83 83 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 82 8 COVID-19 covid-19 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 82 9 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 82 10 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 82 11 immune immune JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 82 12 response response NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 82 13 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 82 14 severity severity NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 82 15 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 82 16 infection infection NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 82 17 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 82 18 transmission transmission NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 82 19 disease disease NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 82 20 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 82 21 84 84 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 82 22 different different JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 82 23 age age NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 82 24 groups group NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 82 25 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 82 26 mainly mainly RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 82 27 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 82 28 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 82 29 adults adult NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 82 30 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 82 31 [ [ -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 82 32 17 17 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 82 33 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 82 34 19 19 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 82 35 ] ] -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 82 36 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 82 37 we -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 82 38 proposed propose VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 82 39 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 82 40 two two CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 82 41 classes class NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 82 42 85 85 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 82 43 age age NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 82 44 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 82 45 structured structure VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 82 46 SIRD SIRD NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 82 47 epidemic epidemic NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 82 48 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 82 49 dividing divide VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 82 50 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 82 51 population population NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 82 52 into into IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 82 53 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 82 54 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 82 55 adults adult NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 82 56 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 83 1 86 86 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 84 1 Moreover moreover RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 84 2 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 84 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 84 4 developed develop VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 84 5 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 84 6 numerical numerical JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 84 7 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 84 8 stochastic stochastic JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 84 9 simulator simulator NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 84 10 based base VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 84 11 on on IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 84 12 this this DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 84 13 hybrid hybrid JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 84 14 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 84 15 87 87 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 84 16 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 84 17 https://teddylazebnik.info/coronavirus-sir-simulation/index.html https://teddylazebnik.info/coronavirus-sir-simulation/index.html NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 84 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 84 19 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 84 20 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 84 21 popu-88 popu-88 NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 84 22 lation lation NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 84 23 spread spread VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 84 24 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 84 25 addition addition NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 84 26 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 84 27 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 84 28 analytical analytical JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 84 29 examination examination NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 84 30 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 84 31 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 84 32 epidemic epidemic NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 84 33 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 84 34 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 85 1 This this DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 85 2 paper paper NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 85 3 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 85 4 organized organize VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 85 5 as as IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 85 6 follows follow VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 85 7 : : : cord-328957-mzi8504f 86 1 First first RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 86 2 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 86 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 86 4 introduce introduce VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 86 5 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-328957-mzi8504f 86 6 mathematical mathematical JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 86 7 hybrid hybrid NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 86 8 90 90 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 86 9 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 86 10 based base VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 86 11 on on IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 86 12 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 86 13 SIRD SIRD NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 86 14 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 86 15 with with IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 86 16 dual dual JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 86 17 age age NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 86 18 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 86 19 structured structure VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 86 20 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 87 1 Second second RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 87 2 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 87 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 87 4 present present VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 87 5 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 87 6 91 91 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 87 7 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 87 8 's 's POS cord-328957-mzi8504f 87 9 equilibria equilibrium NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 87 10 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 87 11 stability stability NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 87 12 analysis analysis NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 87 13 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 87 14 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 87 15 asymptotic asymptotic JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 87 16 form form NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 87 17 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 88 1 Third third RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 88 2 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 88 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 88 4 present present VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 88 5 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 88 6 spatial spatial JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 88 7 92 92 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 88 8 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 88 9 extending extend VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 88 10 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 88 11 SIRD SIRD NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 88 12 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 88 13 by by IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 88 14 introducing introduce VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 88 15 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 88 16 day day NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 88 17 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 88 18 night night NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 88 19 circle circle NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 88 20 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 88 21 three three CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 88 22 locations location NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 88 23 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 88 24 93 93 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 88 25 disease disease NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 88 26 transmission transmission NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 88 27 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 88 28 home home NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 88 29 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 88 30 work work NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 88 31 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 88 32 school school NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 88 33 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 88 34 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 89 1 Fourth fourth RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 89 2 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 89 3 an an DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 89 4 analysis analysis NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 89 5 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 89 6 NPI npi NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 89 7 policies policy NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 89 8 including include VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 89 9 94 94 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 89 10 optimal optimal JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 89 11 lockdown lockdown NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 89 12 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 89 13 optimal optimal JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 89 14 work work NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 89 15 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 89 16 school school NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 89 17 duration duration NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 89 18 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 89 19 presented present VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 89 20 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 89 21 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 89 22 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 89 23 comparison comparison NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 89 24 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 89 25 95 95 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 89 26 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 89 27 Israeli israeli JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 89 28 historical historical JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 89 29 data datum NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 89 30 from from IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 89 31 August August NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 89 32 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 89 33 September September NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 89 34 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 90 1 Finally finally RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 90 2 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 90 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 90 4 discuss discuss VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 90 5 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 90 6 main main JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 90 7 96 96 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 90 8 epidemiological epidemiological JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 90 9 results result NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 90 10 arising arise VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 90 11 from from IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 90 12 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 90 13 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 90 14 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 91 1 Hybrid hybrid JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 91 2 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 91 3 98 98 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 92 1 As as IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 92 2 shown show VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 92 3 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 92 4 [ [ -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 92 5 20 20 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 92 6 ] ] -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 92 7 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 92 8 [ [ -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 92 9 21 21 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 92 10 ] ] -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 92 11 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 92 12 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 92 13 spatial spatial JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 92 14 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 92 15 plays play VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 92 16 an an DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 92 17 important important JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 92 18 role role NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 92 19 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 92 20 describing describe VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 92 21 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 92 22 99 99 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 92 23 spreading spreading NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 92 24 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 92 25 communicable communicable JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 92 26 diseases disease NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 92 27 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 92 28 because because IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 92 29 individuals individual NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 92 30 move move VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 92 31 around around RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 92 32 inside inside IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 92 33 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 92 34 zone zone NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 92 35 or or CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 92 36 100 100 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 92 37 habitat habitat NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 92 38 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 92 39 time time NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 92 40 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 93 1 In in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 93 2 this this DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 93 3 section section NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 93 4 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 93 5 we -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 93 6 present present VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 93 7 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 93 8 hybrid hybrid JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 93 9 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 93 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 93 11 Fig Fig NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 93 12 1 1 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 93 13 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 93 14 that that WDT cord-328957-mzi8504f 93 15 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 93 16 based base VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 93 17 on on IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 93 18 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 93 19 SIRD SIRD NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 93 20 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 93 21 102 102 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 93 22 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 93 23 two two CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 93 24 age age NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 93 25 classes class NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 93 26 using use VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 93 27 eight eight CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 93 28 populations population NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 93 29 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 93 30 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 93 31 are be VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 93 32 shown show VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 93 33 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 93 34 Fig Fig NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 93 35 2 2 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 93 36 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 93 37 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 93 38 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 93 39 spatial spatial JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 93 40 103 103 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 93 41 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 93 42 where where WRB cord-328957-mzi8504f 93 43 these these DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 93 44 populations population NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 93 45 are be VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 93 46 distributed distribute VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 93 47 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 93 48 space space NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 93 49 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 93 50 time time NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 93 51 between between IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 93 52 work work NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 93 53 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 93 54 school school NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 93 55 104 104 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 93 56 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 93 57 home home NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 93 58 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 93 59 Fig Fig NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 93 60 5 5 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 93 61 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 93 62 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 94 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 94 2 will will MD cord-328957-mzi8504f 94 3 define define VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 94 4 these these DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 94 5 sub sub NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 94 6 - - NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 94 7 models model NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 94 8 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 94 9 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 94 10 following follow VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 94 11 sections section NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 94 12 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 95 1 Two two CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 95 2 class class NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 95 3 age age NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 95 4 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 95 5 structured structure VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 95 6 epidemic epidemic NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 95 7 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 95 8 106 106 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 96 1 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 96 2 SIR SIR NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 96 3 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 96 4 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 96 5 proven prove VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 96 6 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 96 7 be be VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 96 8 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 96 9 meaningful meaningful JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 96 10 mathematical mathematical JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 96 11 tool tool NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 96 12 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 96 13 epidemic epidemic NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 96 14 analysis analysis NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 96 15 [ [ -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 96 16 22 22 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 96 17 ] ] -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 96 18 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 97 1 107 107 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 98 1 This this DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 98 2 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 98 3 with with IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 98 4 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 98 5 needed need VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 98 6 modifications modification NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 98 7 has have VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 98 8 already already RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 98 9 been be VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 98 10 shown show VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 98 11 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 98 12 predict predict VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 98 13 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 98 14 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 98 15 108 108 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 98 16 such such JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 98 17 as as IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 98 18 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 98 19 [ [ -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 98 20 23 23 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 98 21 ] ] -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 98 22 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 98 23 influenza influenza NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 98 24 [ [ -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 98 25 24 24 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 98 26 ] ] -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 98 27 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 98 28 Ebola Ebola NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 98 29 [ [ -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 98 30 10 10 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 98 31 ] ] -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 98 32 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 98 33 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 98 34 others other NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 98 35 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 99 1 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 99 2 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 100 1 An an DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 100 2 extension extension NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 100 3 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 100 4 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 100 5 SIR SIR NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 100 6 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 100 7 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 100 8 two two CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 100 9 age age NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 100 10 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 100 11 classes class NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 100 12 has have VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 100 13 been be VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 100 14 investigated investigate VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 100 15 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 100 16 114 114 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 100 17 explanation explanation NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 100 18 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 100 19 Polio Polio NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 100 20 outbreak outbreak NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 100 21 by by IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 100 22 Bunimovich Bunimovich NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 100 23 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 100 24 Mendrazitsky Mendrazitsky NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 100 25 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 100 26 Stone Stone NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 100 27 [ [ -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 100 28 25 25 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 100 29 ] ] -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 100 30 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 101 1 Model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 101 2 definition definition NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 101 3 116 116 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 102 1 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 102 2 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 102 3 considers consider VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 102 4 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 102 5 constant constant JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 102 6 population population NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 102 7 with with IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 102 8 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 102 9 fixed fix VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 102 10 number number NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 102 11 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 102 12 individuals individual NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 102 13 N n CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 102 14 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 103 1 Each each DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 103 2 117 117 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 103 3 individual individual NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 103 4 belongs belong VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 103 5 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 103 6 one one CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 103 7 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 103 8 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 103 9 three three CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 103 10 groups group NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 103 11 : : : cord-328957-mzi8504f 103 12 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 103 13 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 103 14 S S NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 103 15 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 103 16 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 103 17 infected infect VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 103 18 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 103 19 I i NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 103 20 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 103 21 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 103 22 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 103 23 recovered recover VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 103 24 118 118 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 103 25 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 103 26 R r NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 103 27 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 103 28 such such JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 103 29 that that DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 104 1 N n NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 104 2 = = SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 104 3 |S| |s| CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 104 4 + + CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 104 5 |I| |i| NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 104 6 + + CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 104 7 |R| |R| . cord-328957-mzi8504f 104 8 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 105 1 When when WRB cord-328957-mzi8504f 105 2 an an DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 105 3 individual individual NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 105 4 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 105 5 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 105 6 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 105 7 group group NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 105 8 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 105 9 S S NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 105 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 105 11 119 119 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 105 12 exposed expose VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 105 13 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 105 14 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 105 15 infection infection NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 105 16 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 105 17 it -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 105 18 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 105 19 transferred transfer VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 105 20 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 105 21 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 105 22 infected infected JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 105 23 group group NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 105 24 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 105 25 I i NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 105 26 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 105 27 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 106 1 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 106 2 individual individual NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 106 3 stays stay VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 106 4 120 120 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 106 5 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 106 6 this this DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 106 7 group group NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 106 8 on on IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 106 9 average average JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 106 10 d d NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 106 11 I→R I→R VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 106 12 days day NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 106 13 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 106 14 after after IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 106 15 which which WDT cord-328957-mzi8504f 106 16 it -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 106 17 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 106 18 transferred transfer VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 106 19 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 106 20 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 106 21 recovered recovered JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 106 22 group group NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 106 23 121 121 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 106 24 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 106 25 R r NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 106 26 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 106 27 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 107 1 In in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 107 2 addition addition NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 107 3 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 107 4 these these DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 107 5 groups group NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 107 6 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 107 7 we -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 107 8 define define VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 107 9 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 107 10 death death NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 107 11 group group NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 107 12 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 107 13 D D NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 107 14 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 107 15 which which WDT cord-328957-mzi8504f 107 16 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 107 17 associated associate VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 107 18 with with IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 107 19 123 123 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 107 20 individuals individual NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 107 21 that that WDT cord-328957-mzi8504f 107 22 are be VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 107 23 not not RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 107 24 able able JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 107 25 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 107 26 fully fully RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 107 27 recover recover VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 107 28 from from IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 107 29 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 107 30 disease disease NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 107 31 or or CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 107 32 succumb succumb VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 107 33 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 107 34 death death NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 107 35 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 108 1 124 124 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 108 2 Individuals individual NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 108 3 from from IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 108 4 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 108 5 infected infected JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 108 6 group group NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 108 7 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 108 8 I i NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 108 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 108 10 recover recover VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 108 11 from from IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 108 12 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 108 13 disease disease NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 108 14 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 108 15 some some DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 108 16 chance chance NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 108 17 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 108 18 125 125 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 108 19 move move NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 108 20 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 108 21 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 108 22 R r NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 108 23 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 108 24 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 108 25 while while IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 108 26 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 108 27 others other NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 108 28 do do VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 108 29 not not RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 108 30 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 108 31 move move VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 108 32 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 108 33 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 108 34 D D NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 108 35 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 108 36 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 109 1 Therefore therefore RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 109 2 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 109 3 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 109 4 each each DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 109 5 time time NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 109 6 unit unit NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 109 7 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 109 8 126 126 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 109 9 some some DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 109 10 rate rate NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 109 11 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 109 12 infected infected JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 109 13 individuals individual NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 109 14 recover recover VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 109 15 while while IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 109 16 others other NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 109 17 die die VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 109 18 or or CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 109 19 remain remain VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 109 20 seriously seriously RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 109 21 ill ill JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 109 22 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 110 1 127 127 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 111 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 111 2 divide divide VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 111 3 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 111 4 population population NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 111 5 into into IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 111 6 two two CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 111 7 classes class NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 111 8 based base VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 111 9 on on IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 111 10 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-328957-mzi8504f 111 11 age age NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 111 12 : : : cord-328957-mzi8504f 111 13 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 111 14 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 111 15 adults adult NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 111 16 128 128 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 111 17 because because IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 111 18 these these DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 111 19 groups group NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 111 20 experience experience VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 111 21 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 111 22 disease disease NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 111 23 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 111 24 varying vary VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 111 25 degrees degree NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 111 26 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 111 27 severity severity NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 111 28 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 111 29 have have VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 111 30 129 129 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 111 31 different different JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 111 32 infection infection NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 111 33 rates rate NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 111 34 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 112 1 In in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 112 2 addition addition NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 112 3 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 112 4 adults adult NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 112 5 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 112 6 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 112 7 are be VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 112 8 present present JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 112 9 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 112 10 various various JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 112 11 discrete discrete JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 112 12 130 130 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 112 13 locations location NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 112 14 throughout throughout IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 112 15 many many JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 112 16 hours hour NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 112 17 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 112 18 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 112 19 day day NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 112 20 which which WDT cord-328957-mzi8504f 112 21 affects affect VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 112 22 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 112 23 spread spread NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 112 24 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 112 25 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 113 1 Individ-131 individ-131 IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 113 2 uals ual NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 113 3 below below IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 113 4 age age NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 113 5 A a NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 113 6 are be VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 113 7 associated associate VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 113 8 with with IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 113 9 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 113 10 " " `` cord-328957-mzi8504f 113 11 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 113 12 " " '' cord-328957-mzi8504f 113 13 age age NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 113 14 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 113 15 class class NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 113 16 while while IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 113 17 individuals individual NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 113 18 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 113 19 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 113 20 132 132 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 113 21 complementary complementary JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 113 22 group group NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 113 23 are be VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 113 24 associated associate VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 113 25 with with IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 113 26 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 113 27 " " `` cord-328957-mzi8504f 113 28 adult adult NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 113 29 " " '' cord-328957-mzi8504f 113 30 age age NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 113 31 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 113 32 class class NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 113 33 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 114 1 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 114 2 specific specific JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 114 3 threshold threshold NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 114 4 133 133 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 114 5 age age NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 114 6 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 114 7 A a NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 114 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 114 9 may may MD cord-328957-mzi8504f 114 10 differ differ VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 114 11 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 114 12 different different JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 114 13 locations location NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 114 14 but but CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 114 15 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 114 16 main main JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 114 17 goal goal NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 114 18 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 114 19 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 114 20 divide divide VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 114 21 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 114 22 population population NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 114 23 134 134 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 114 24 into into IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 114 25 two two CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 114 26 representative representative JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 114 27 age age NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 114 28 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 114 29 classes class NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 114 30 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 115 1 Since since IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 115 2 it -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 115 3 takes take VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 115 4 A a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 115 5 years year NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 115 6 from from IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 115 7 birth birth NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 115 8 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 115 9 move move VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 115 10 from from IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 115 11 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 115 12 135 135 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 115 13 child child NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 115 14 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 115 15 an an DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 115 16 adult adult NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 115 17 age age NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 115 18 group group NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 115 19 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 115 20 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 115 21 conversion conversion NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 115 22 rate rate NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 115 23 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 115 24 set set VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 115 25 as as IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 115 26 α α NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 115 27 : : : cord-328957-mzi8504f 115 28 = = SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 115 29 1 1 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 115 30 A a NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 115 31 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 116 1 By by IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 116 2 expanding expand VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 116 3 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 116 4 designation designation NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 116 5 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 116 6 two two CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 116 7 age age NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 116 8 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 116 9 classes class NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 116 10 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 116 11 we -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 116 12 let let VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 116 13 S s NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 116 14 c c NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 116 15 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 116 16 I I NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 116 17 c c NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 116 18 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 116 19 R R NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 116 20 c c NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 116 21 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 116 22 D D NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 116 23 c c NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 116 24 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 116 25 S S NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 116 26 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 117 1 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 117 2 I -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 117 3 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 117 4 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 117 5 R R NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 117 6 a a NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 117 7 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 118 1 D D NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 118 2 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 118 3 137 137 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 118 4 represent represent VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 118 5 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 118 6 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 118 7 infected infected JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 118 8 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 118 9 recovered recover VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 118 10 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 118 11 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 118 12 death death NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 118 13 groups group NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 118 14 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 118 15 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 118 16 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 118 17 adults adult NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 118 18 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 118 19 138 138 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 1 respectively respectively RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 2 such such JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 3 that that IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 4 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 5 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 6 does do VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 7 not not RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 8 take take VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 9 into into IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 10 consideration consideration NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 11 death death NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 12 during during IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 13 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 14 epidemic epidemic NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 15 unrelated unrelated JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 16 140 140 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 17 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 18 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 19 disease disease NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 20 itself -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 21 because because IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 22 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 23 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 24 United United NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 25 States States NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 26 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 27 2018 2018 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 28 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 29 birth birth NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 30 rate rate NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 31 was be VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 32 11.6 11.6 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 33 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 34 141 141 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 35 every every DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 36 1000 1000 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 37 individuals individual NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 38 [ [ -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 39 26 26 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 40 ] ] -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 41 while while IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 42 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 43 mortality mortality NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 44 rate rate NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 45 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 46 2017 2017 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 47 was be VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 48 8.6 8.6 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 49 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 50 every every DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 51 1000 1000 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 52 142 142 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 53 individuals individual NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 54 [ [ -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 55 27 27 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 56 ] ] -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 57 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 58 resulting result VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 59 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 60 around around IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 61 0.3 0.3 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 62 % % NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 63 increment increment NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 64 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 65 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 66 population population NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 67 size size NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 68 which which WDT cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 69 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 70 143 143 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 71 assumed assume VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 72 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 73 be be VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 74 small small JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 75 enough enough RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 76 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 77 be be VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 78 neglected neglect VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 119 79 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 120 1 In in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 120 2 addition addition NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 120 3 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 120 4 we -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 120 5 introduce introduce VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 120 6 two two CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 120 7 death death NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 120 8 states state NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 120 9 144 144 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 120 10 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 120 11 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 120 12 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 120 13 adults adult NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 120 14 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 120 15 respectively respectively RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 120 16 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 120 17 that that WDT cord-328957-mzi8504f 120 18 died die VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 120 19 from from IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 120 20 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 120 21 epidemic epidemic NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 120 22 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 121 1 Eq Eq NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 122 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 122 2 1 1 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 122 3 - - SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 122 4 10 10 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 122 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 122 6 describes describe VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 122 7 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 122 8 epidemic epidemic NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 122 9 's 's POS cord-328957-mzi8504f 122 10 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 122 11 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 123 1 In in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 123 2 Eq Eq NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 123 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 123 4 1 1 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 123 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 123 6 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 123 7 dSc(t dSc(t NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 123 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 123 9 dt dt NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 123 10 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 123 11 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 123 12 dynamical dynamical JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 123 13 amount amount NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 123 14 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 123 15 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 123 16 individual individual JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 123 17 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 123 18 over over IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 123 19 time time NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 123 20 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 124 1 147 147 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 125 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 125 2 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 125 3 affected affect VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 125 4 by by IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 125 5 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 125 6 following follow VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 125 7 three three CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 125 8 terms term NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 125 9 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 126 1 First first RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 126 2 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 126 3 with with IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 126 4 rate rate NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 126 5 β β NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 126 6 cc cc XX cord-328957-mzi8504f 126 7 each each DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 126 8 infected infect VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 126 9 child child NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 126 10 infects infect VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 126 11 148 148 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 126 12 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 126 13 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 126 14 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 127 1 Second second RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 127 2 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 127 3 with with IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 127 4 rate rate NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 127 5 β β NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 127 6 ca ca MD cord-328957-mzi8504f 127 7 each each DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 127 8 infected infect VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 127 9 adult adult NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 127 10 infects infect VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 127 11 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 127 12 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 127 13 149 149 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 127 14 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 127 15 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 128 1 Finally finally RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 128 2 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 128 3 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 128 4 grow grow VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 128 5 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 128 6 pass pass VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 128 7 from from IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 128 8 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 128 9 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 128 10 's 's POS cord-328957-mzi8504f 128 11 age age NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 128 12 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 128 13 class class NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 128 14 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 128 15 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 128 16 adult adult NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 128 17 's 's POS cord-328957-mzi8504f 128 18 150 150 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 128 19 age age NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 128 20 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 128 21 class class NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 128 22 with with IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 128 23 transition transition NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 128 24 rate rate NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 128 25 α α NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 128 26 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 128 27 reduced reduce VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 128 28 from from IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 128 29 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 128 30 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 128 31 's 's POS cord-328957-mzi8504f 128 32 age age NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 128 33 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 128 34 class class NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 128 35 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 129 1 N N NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 129 2 c c NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 129 3 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 129 4 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 129 5 size size NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 129 6 151 151 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 129 7 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 129 8 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 129 9 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 129 10 population population NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 129 11 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 129 12 used use VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 129 13 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 129 14 take take VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 129 15 all all DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 129 16 variables variable NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 129 17 as as IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 129 18 fixed fix VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 129 19 proportions proportion NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 129 20 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 129 21 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 129 22 152 152 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 129 23 population population NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 129 24 N n CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 129 25 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 130 1 In in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 130 2 Eq Eq NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 130 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 130 4 2 2 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 130 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 130 6 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 130 7 dSa(t dSa(t NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 130 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 130 9 dt dt NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 130 10 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 130 11 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 130 12 dynamical dynamical JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 130 13 amount amount NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 130 14 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 130 15 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 130 16 adult adult NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 130 17 individuals individual NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 130 18 over over IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 130 19 time time NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 130 20 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 131 1 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 131 2 's 's POS cord-328957-mzi8504f 131 3 age age NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 131 4 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 131 5 class class NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 131 6 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 131 7 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 131 8 adult adult NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 131 9 's 's POS cord-328957-mzi8504f 131 10 age age NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 131 11 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 131 12 class class NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 131 13 with with IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 131 14 transition transition NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 131 15 rate rate NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 131 16 α α NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 131 17 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 131 18 added add VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 131 19 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 131 20 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 131 21 adult adult NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 131 22 156 156 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 131 23 age age NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 131 24 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 131 25 class class NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 131 26 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 132 1 Second second RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 132 2 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 132 3 with with IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 132 4 rate rate NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 132 5 β β NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 132 6 ac ac IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 132 7 each each DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 132 8 infected infect VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 132 9 child child NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 132 10 infects infect VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 132 11 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 132 12 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 132 13 adult adult NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 132 14 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 133 1 Finally finally RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 133 2 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 133 3 157 157 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 133 4 with with IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 133 5 rate rate NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 133 6 β β NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 133 7 aa aa NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 133 8 each each DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 133 9 infected infect VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 133 10 adult adult NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 133 11 infects infect VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 133 12 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 133 13 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 133 14 adult adult NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 133 15 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 134 1 N n LS cord-328957-mzi8504f 134 2 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 134 3 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 134 4 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 134 5 size size NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 134 6 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 134 7 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 134 8 adult adult NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 134 9 158 158 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 134 10 population population NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 134 11 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 134 12 used use VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 134 13 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 134 14 take take VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 134 15 all all DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 134 16 variables variable NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 134 17 as as IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 134 18 fixed fix VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 134 19 proportions proportion NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 134 20 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 134 21 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 134 22 population population NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 134 23 N N NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 134 24 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 135 1 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 135 2 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 135 3 dynamical dynamical JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 135 4 amount amount NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 135 5 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 135 6 infected infected JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 135 7 individual individual JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 135 8 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 135 9 over over IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 135 10 time time NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 135 11 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 136 1 160 160 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 137 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 137 2 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 137 3 affected affect VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 137 4 by by IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 137 5 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 137 6 following follow VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 137 7 four four CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 137 8 terms term NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 137 9 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 138 1 First first RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 138 2 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 138 3 with with IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 138 4 rate rate NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 138 5 β β NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 138 6 ca ca MD cord-328957-mzi8504f 138 7 each each DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 138 8 infected infect VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 138 9 child child NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 138 10 infects infect VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 138 11 161 161 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 138 12 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 138 13 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 138 14 adult adult NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 138 15 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 139 1 Second second RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 139 2 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 139 3 with with IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 139 4 rate rate NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 139 5 β β NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 139 6 cc cc XX cord-328957-mzi8504f 139 7 each each DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 139 8 infected infect VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 139 9 child child NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 139 10 infects infect VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 139 11 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 139 12 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 139 13 child child NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 139 14 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 140 1 162 162 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 140 2 Third Third NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 140 3 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 140 4 individuals individual NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 140 5 recover recover VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 140 6 or or CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 140 7 die die VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 140 8 from from IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 140 9 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 140 10 disease disease NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 140 11 after after IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 140 12 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 140 13 period period NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 140 14 γ γ NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 140 15 c c NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 140 16 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 141 1 Finally finally RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 141 2 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 141 3 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 141 4 163 163 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 141 5 grow grow VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 141 6 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 141 7 pass pass VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 141 8 from from IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 141 9 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 141 10 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 141 11 's 's POS cord-328957-mzi8504f 141 12 age age NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 141 13 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 141 14 class class NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 141 15 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 141 16 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 141 17 adult adult NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 141 18 's 's POS cord-328957-mzi8504f 141 19 age age NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 141 20 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 141 21 class class NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 141 22 with with IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 141 23 transition transition NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 141 24 rate rate NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 141 25 164 164 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 141 26 α α NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 141 27 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 141 28 reduced reduce VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 141 29 from from IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 141 30 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 141 31 adult adult NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 141 32 's 's POS cord-328957-mzi8504f 141 33 age age NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 141 34 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 141 35 class class NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 141 36 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 142 1 While while IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 142 2 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 142 3 last last JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 142 4 process process NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 142 5 has have VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 142 6 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 142 7 minor minor JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 142 8 impact impact NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 142 9 relative relative NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 142 10 165 165 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 142 11 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 142 12 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 142 13 first first JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 142 14 three three CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 142 15 processes process NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 142 16 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 142 17 we -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 142 18 do do VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 142 19 not not RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 142 20 neglect neglect VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 142 21 it -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 142 22 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 142 23 order order NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 142 24 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 142 25 count count VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 142 26 edge edge NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 142 27 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 142 28 cases case NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 142 29 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 143 1 November November NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 143 2 2 2 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 143 3 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 143 4 2020 2020 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 143 5 6/28 6/28 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 143 6 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 144 1 CC CC NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 144 2 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 144 3 BY BY NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 144 4 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 144 5 NC NC NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 144 6 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 144 7 ND ND NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 144 8 4.0 4.0 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 144 9 International international JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 144 10 license license NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 144 11 It -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 144 12 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 144 13 made make VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 144 14 available available JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 144 15 under under IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 144 16 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 145 1 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 145 2 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 145 3 author author NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 145 4 / / SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 145 5 funder funder NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 145 6 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 145 7 who who WP cord-328957-mzi8504f 145 8 has have VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 145 9 granted grant VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 145 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 145 11 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 145 12 license license NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 145 13 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 145 14 display display VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 145 15 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 145 16 preprint preprint NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 145 17 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 145 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 145 19 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 146 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 146 2 which which WDT cord-328957-mzi8504f 146 3 was be VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 146 4 not not RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 146 5 certified certify VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 146 6 by by IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 146 7 peer peer NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 146 8 review review NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 146 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 147 1 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 147 2 copyright copyright NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 147 3 holder holder NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 147 4 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 147 5 this this DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 147 6 preprint preprint NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 147 7 this this DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 147 8 version version NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 147 9 posted post VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 147 10 November November NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 147 11 4 4 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 147 12 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 147 13 2020 2020 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 147 14 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 148 1 ; ; : cord-328957-mzi8504f 148 2 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.11.02.20224584 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.11.02.20224584 NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 148 3 doi doi NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 148 4 : : : cord-328957-mzi8504f 149 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 149 2 preprint preprint NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 150 1 In in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 150 2 Eq Eq NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 150 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 150 4 4 4 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 150 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 150 6 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 150 7 dIa(t dIa(t NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 150 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 150 9 dt dt NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 150 10 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 150 11 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 150 12 dynamical dynamical JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 150 13 amount amount NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 150 14 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 150 15 infected infected JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 150 16 adult adult NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 150 17 individuals individual NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 150 18 over over IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 150 19 time time NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 150 20 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 151 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 151 2 167 167 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 151 3 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 151 4 affected affect VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 151 5 by by IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 151 6 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 151 7 following follow VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 151 8 four four CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 151 9 terms term NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 151 10 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 152 1 First first RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 152 2 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 152 3 with with IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 152 4 rate rate NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 152 5 β β NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 152 6 ac ac IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 152 7 each each DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 152 8 infected infect VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 152 9 child child NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 152 10 infects infect VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 152 11 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 152 12 168 168 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 152 13 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 152 14 adult adult NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 152 15 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 153 1 Second second RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 153 2 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 153 3 with with IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 153 4 rate rate NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 153 5 β β NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 153 6 aa aa NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 153 7 each each DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 153 8 infected infect VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 153 9 adult adult NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 153 10 infects infect VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 153 11 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 153 12 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 153 13 adult adult NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 153 14 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 154 1 169 169 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 154 2 Third Third NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 154 3 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 154 4 individuals individual NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 154 5 recover recover VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 154 6 or or CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 154 7 die die VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 154 8 from from IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 154 9 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 154 10 disease disease NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 154 11 after after IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 154 12 period period NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 154 13 γ γ NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 154 14 a a NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 154 15 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 155 1 Finally finally RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 155 2 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 155 3 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 155 4 grow grow VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 155 5 170 170 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 155 6 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 155 7 pass pass VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 155 8 from from IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 155 9 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 155 10 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 155 11 's 's POS cord-328957-mzi8504f 155 12 age age NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 155 13 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 155 14 class class NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 155 15 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 155 16 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 155 17 adult adult NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 155 18 's 's POS cord-328957-mzi8504f 155 19 age age NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 155 20 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 155 21 class class NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 155 22 with with IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 155 23 transition transition NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 155 24 rate rate NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 155 25 α α NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 155 26 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 155 27 171 171 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 155 28 added add VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 155 29 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 155 30 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 155 31 adult adult NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 155 32 's 's POS cord-328957-mzi8504f 155 33 age age NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 155 34 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 155 35 class class NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 155 36 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 156 1 While while IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 156 2 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 156 3 last last JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 156 4 process process NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 156 5 has have VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 156 6 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 156 7 minor minor JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 156 8 impact impact NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 156 9 relative relative JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 156 10 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 156 11 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 156 12 172 172 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 156 13 first first JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 156 14 three three CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 156 15 processes process NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 156 16 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 156 17 we -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 156 18 do do VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 156 19 not not RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 156 20 neglect neglect VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 156 21 it -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 156 22 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 156 23 count count VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 156 24 edge edge NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 156 25 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 156 26 cases case NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 156 27 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 157 1 In in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 157 2 Eq Eq NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 157 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 157 4 5 5 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 157 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 157 6 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 157 7 dRc(t dRc(t NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 157 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 157 9 dt dt NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 157 10 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 157 11 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 157 12 dynamical dynamical JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 157 13 amount amount NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 157 14 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 157 15 recovered recover VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 157 16 individual individual JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 157 17 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 157 18 over over IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 157 19 174 174 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 157 20 time time NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 157 21 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 158 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 158 2 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 158 3 affected affect VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 158 4 by by IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 158 5 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 158 6 following follow VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 158 7 two two CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 158 8 terms term NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 158 9 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 159 1 First first RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 159 2 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 159 3 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 159 4 each each DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 159 5 point point NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 159 6 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 159 7 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 159 8 portion portion NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 159 9 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 159 10 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 159 11 175 175 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 159 12 infected infected JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 159 13 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 159 14 recover recover VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 159 15 after after IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 159 16 period period NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 159 17 γ γ NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 159 18 c c NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 159 19 which which WDT cord-328957-mzi8504f 159 20 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 159 21 multiplied multiply VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 159 22 by by IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 159 23 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 159 24 rate rate NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 159 25 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 159 26 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 159 27 176 176 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 159 28 that that WDT cord-328957-mzi8504f 159 29 do do VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 159 30 recover recover VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 159 31 from from IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 159 32 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 159 33 disease disease NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 160 1 ρ ρ NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 160 2 c c NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 160 3 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 161 1 Second second JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 161 2 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 161 3 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 161 4 grow grow VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 161 5 from from IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 161 6 birth birth NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 161 7 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 161 8 pass pass VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 161 9 from from IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 161 10 177 177 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 161 11 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 161 12 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 161 13 's 's POS cord-328957-mzi8504f 161 14 age age NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 161 15 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 161 16 class class NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 161 17 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 161 18 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 161 19 adult adult NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 161 20 age age NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 161 21 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 161 22 class class NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 161 23 with with IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 161 24 transition transition NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 161 25 rate rate NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 161 26 α α NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 161 27 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 161 28 reduced reduce VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 161 29 from from IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 161 30 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 161 31 178 178 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 161 32 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 161 33 's 's POS cord-328957-mzi8504f 161 34 age age NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 161 35 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 161 36 class class NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 161 37 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 162 1 In in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 162 2 Eq Eq NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 162 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 162 4 6 6 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 162 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 162 6 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 162 7 dRa(t dRa(t NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 162 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 162 9 dt dt NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 162 10 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 162 11 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 162 12 dynamical dynamical JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 162 13 amount amount NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 162 14 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 162 15 recovered recover VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 162 16 adult adult NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 162 17 individuals individual NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 162 18 over over IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 162 19 time time NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 162 20 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 163 1 180 180 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 164 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 164 2 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 164 3 affected affect VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 164 4 by by IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 164 5 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 164 6 following follow VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 164 7 two two CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 164 8 terms term NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 164 9 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 165 1 First first RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 165 2 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 165 3 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 165 4 each each DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 165 5 point point NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 165 6 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 165 7 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 165 8 portion portion NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 165 9 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 165 10 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 165 11 infected infected JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 165 12 181 181 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 165 13 adults adult NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 165 14 recover recover VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 165 15 after after IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 165 16 period period NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 165 17 γ γ NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 165 18 a a NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 165 19 which which WDT cord-328957-mzi8504f 165 20 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 165 21 multiplied multiply VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 165 22 by by IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 165 23 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 165 24 rate rate NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 165 25 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 165 26 adults adult NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 165 27 that that WDT cord-328957-mzi8504f 165 28 do do VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 165 29 recover recover VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 165 30 182 182 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 165 31 from from IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 165 32 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 165 33 disease disease NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 165 34 ρ ρ NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 165 35 a a NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 165 36 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 166 1 Second second JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 166 2 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 166 3 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 166 4 grow grow VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 166 5 from from IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 166 6 birth birth NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 166 7 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 166 8 pass pass VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 166 9 from from IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 166 10 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 166 11 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 166 12 's 's POS cord-328957-mzi8504f 166 13 183 183 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 166 14 age age NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 166 15 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 166 16 class class NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 166 17 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 166 18 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 166 19 adult adult NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 166 20 age age NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 166 21 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 166 22 class class NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 166 23 with with IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 166 24 transition transition NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 166 25 rate rate NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 166 26 α α NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 166 27 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 166 28 added add VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 166 29 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 166 30 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 166 31 adult adult NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 166 32 age age NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 166 33 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 166 34 class class NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 166 35 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 167 1 In in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 167 2 Eq Eq NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 167 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 167 4 7 7 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 167 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 167 6 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 167 7 dDc(t dDc(t NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 167 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 167 9 dt dt NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 167 10 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 167 11 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 167 12 dynamical dynamical JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 167 13 amount amount NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 167 14 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 167 15 dead dead JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 167 16 individual individual JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 167 17 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 167 18 over over IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 167 19 time time NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 167 20 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 168 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 168 2 185 185 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 168 3 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 168 4 affected affect VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 168 5 by by IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 168 6 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 168 7 portion portion NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 168 8 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 168 9 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 168 10 infected infected JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 168 11 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 168 12 that that WDT cord-328957-mzi8504f 168 13 do do VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 168 14 not not RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 168 15 recover recover VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 168 16 after after IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 168 17 period period NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 168 18 γ γ NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 168 19 c c NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 168 20 186 186 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 168 21 which which WDT cord-328957-mzi8504f 168 22 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 168 23 multiplied multiply VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 168 24 by by IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 168 25 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 168 26 rate rate NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 168 27 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 168 28 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 168 29 that that WDT cord-328957-mzi8504f 168 30 do do VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 168 31 not not RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 168 32 recover recover VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 168 33 from from IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 168 34 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 168 35 disease disease NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 168 36 ψ ψ NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 168 37 c c NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 168 38 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 169 1 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 169 2 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 169 3 dynamical dynamical JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 169 4 amount amount NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 169 5 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 169 6 dead dead JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 169 7 adult adult NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 169 8 individuals individual NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 169 9 over over IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 169 10 time time NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 169 11 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 170 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 170 2 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 170 3 188 188 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 170 4 affected affect VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 170 5 by by IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 170 6 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 170 7 portion portion NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 170 8 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 170 9 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 170 10 infected infected JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 170 11 adult adult NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 170 12 that that WDT cord-328957-mzi8504f 170 13 do do VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 170 14 not not RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 170 15 recover recover VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 170 16 after after IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 170 17 period period NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 170 18 γ γ NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 170 19 a a NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 170 20 which which WDT cord-328957-mzi8504f 170 21 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 170 22 189 189 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 170 23 multiplied multiply VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 170 24 by by IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 170 25 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 170 26 rate rate NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 170 27 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 170 28 adults adult NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 170 29 that that WDT cord-328957-mzi8504f 170 30 do do VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 170 31 not not RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 170 32 recover recover VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 170 33 from from IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 170 34 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 170 35 disease disease NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 170 36 ψ ψ NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 170 37 a a NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 170 38 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 171 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 171 2 should should MD cord-328957-mzi8504f 171 3 be be VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 171 4 noted note VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 171 5 that that IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 171 6 both both DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 171 7 Eq Eq NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 171 8 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 171 9 7 7 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 171 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 171 11 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 171 12 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 171 13 8) 8) NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 171 14 can can MD cord-328957-mzi8504f 171 15 be be VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 171 16 presented present VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 171 17 as as IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 171 18 one one CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 171 19 equation equation NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 171 20 as as IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 171 21 D D NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 171 22 a a NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 171 23 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 171 24 D D NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 171 25 c c NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 171 26 are be VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 171 27 accumulative accumulative JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 171 28 populations population NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 171 29 which which WDT cord-328957-mzi8504f 171 30 do do VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 171 31 not not RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 171 32 infect infect VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 171 33 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 171 34 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 171 35 separately separately RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 171 36 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 172 1 192 192 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 173 1 Nevertheless nevertheless RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 173 2 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 173 3 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 173 4 provide provide VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 173 5 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 173 6 better well JJR cord-328957-mzi8504f 173 7 representation representation NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 173 8 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 173 9 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 173 10 age age NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 173 11 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 173 12 based base VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 173 13 death death NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 173 14 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 173 15 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 173 16 epidemic epidemic NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 173 17 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 173 18 193 193 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 173 19 we -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 173 20 chose choose VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 173 21 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 173 22 divide divide VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 173 23 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 173 24 dead dead JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 173 25 individuals individual NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 173 26 into into IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 173 27 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 173 28 same same JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 173 29 age age NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 173 30 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 173 31 groups group NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 173 32 which which WDT cord-328957-mzi8504f 173 33 allows allow VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 173 34 later later RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 173 35 194 194 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 173 36 analysis analysis NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 173 37 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 173 38 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 173 39 death death NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 173 40 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 173 41 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 173 42 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 173 43 adults adult NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 173 44 separately separately RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 173 45 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 174 1 In in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 174 2 summary summary NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 174 3 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 174 4 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 174 5 interactions interaction NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 174 6 195 195 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 174 7 between between IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 174 8 disease disease NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 174 9 stages stage NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 174 10 presented present VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 174 11 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 174 12 Fig Fig NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 174 13 1 1 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 174 14 are be VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 174 15 modelled model VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 174 16 by by IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 174 17 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 174 18 following follow VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 174 19 system system NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 174 20 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 174 21 eight eight CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 174 22 196 196 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 174 23 coupled couple VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 174 24 ordinary ordinary JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 174 25 differential differential JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 174 26 equations equation NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 174 27 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 174 28 ODE ode NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 174 29 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 175 1 Eq Eq NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 175 2 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 175 3 9 9 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 175 4 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 175 5 with with IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 175 6 initial initial JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 175 7 conditions condition NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 175 8 at at IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 175 9 t t NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 175 10 = = SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 175 11 0 0 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 175 12 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 175 13 197 197 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 175 14 Eq eq NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 175 15 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 175 16 10 10 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 175 17 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 175 18 as as IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 175 19 : : : cord-328957-mzi8504f 175 20 November November NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 175 21 2 2 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 175 22 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 175 23 2020 2020 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 175 24 7/28 7/28 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 175 25 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 176 1 CC CC NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 176 2 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 176 3 BY BY NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 176 4 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 176 5 NC NC NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 176 6 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 176 7 ND ND NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 176 8 4.0 4.0 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 176 9 International international JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 176 10 license license NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 177 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 177 2 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 177 3 made make VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 177 4 available available JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 177 5 under under IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 177 6 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 178 1 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 178 2 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 178 3 author author NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 178 4 / / SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 178 5 funder funder NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 178 6 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 178 7 who who WP cord-328957-mzi8504f 178 8 has have VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 178 9 granted grant VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 178 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 178 11 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 178 12 license license NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 178 13 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 178 14 display display VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 178 15 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 178 16 preprint preprint NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 178 17 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 178 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 178 19 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 179 1 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 179 2 copyright copyright NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 179 3 holder holder NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 179 4 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 179 5 this this DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 179 6 preprint preprint NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 179 7 this this DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 179 8 version version NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 179 9 posted post VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 179 10 November November NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 179 11 4 4 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 179 12 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 179 13 2020 2020 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 179 14 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 180 1 ; ; : cord-328957-mzi8504f 180 2 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 181 1 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 181 2 parameters parameter NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 181 3 used use VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 181 4 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 181 5 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 181 6 calculation calculation NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 181 7 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 181 8 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 181 9 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 181 10 throughout throughout IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 181 11 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 181 12 paper paper NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 181 13 are be VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 181 14 199 199 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 181 15 presented present VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 181 16 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 181 17 Table Table NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 181 18 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 182 1 1 1 LS cord-328957-mzi8504f 182 2 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 183 1 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 183 2 values value NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 183 3 are be VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 183 4 cited cite VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 183 5 from from IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 183 6 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 183 7 sources source NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 183 8 themselves -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 183 9 except except IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 183 10 A a NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 183 11 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 183 12 β β NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 183 13 ca ca NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 183 14 200 200 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 183 15 calculated calculate VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 183 16 from from IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 183 17 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 183 18 data datum NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 183 19 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 183 20 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 183 21 correlated correlate VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 183 22 source source NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 183 23 [ [ -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 183 24 6 6 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 183 25 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 183 26 17 17 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 183 27 ] ] -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 183 28 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 184 1 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 184 2 threshold threshold NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 184 3 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 184 4 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 184 5 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 184 6 's 's POS cord-328957-mzi8504f 184 7 201 201 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 184 8 age age NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 184 9 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 184 10 become become VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 184 11 adults adult NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 184 12 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 184 13 parameter parameter NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 184 14 A a NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 184 15 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 184 16 set set VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 184 17 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 184 18 13 13 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 184 19 year year NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 184 20 as as IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 184 21 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 184 22 mean mean JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 184 23 value value NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 184 24 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 184 25 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 184 26 group group NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 184 27 202 202 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 184 28 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 184 29 ages age NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 184 30 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 184 31 which which WDT cord-328957-mzi8504f 184 32 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 184 33 percentage percentage NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 184 34 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 184 35 critical critical JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 184 36 cases case NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 184 37 relative relative JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 184 38 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 184 39 all all DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 184 40 cases case NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 184 41 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 184 42 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 184 43 highest high JJS cord-328957-mzi8504f 184 44 as as IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 184 45 203 203 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 184 46 reported report VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 184 47 by by IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 184 48 Dong Dong NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 184 49 et et FW cord-328957-mzi8504f 184 50 al al NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 184 51 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 185 1 [ [ -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 185 2 6 6 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 185 3 ] ] -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 185 4 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 185 5 Table table NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 185 6 2 2 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 185 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 185 8 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 186 1 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 186 2 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 186 3 contacts contact NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 186 4 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 186 5 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 186 6 who who WP cord-328957-mzi8504f 186 7 become become VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 186 8 204 204 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 186 9 infected infect VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 186 10 due due IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 186 11 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 186 12 direct direct JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 186 13 disease disease NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 186 14 transmission transmission NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 186 15 from from IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 186 16 an an DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 186 17 adult adult NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 186 18 β β NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 186 19 ca ca MD cord-328957-mzi8504f 186 20 are be VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 186 21 calculated calculate VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 186 22 based base VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 186 23 on on IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 186 24 205 205 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 186 25 data datum NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 186 26 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 186 27 10 10 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 186 28 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 186 29 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 187 1 Eight eight CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 187 2 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 187 3 out out IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 187 4 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 187 5 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 187 6 10 10 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 187 7 have have VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 187 8 been be VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 187 9 exposed expose VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 187 10 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 187 11 30 30 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 187 12 adults adult NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 187 13 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 187 14 total total JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 187 15 206 206 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 187 16 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 187 17 later later RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 187 18 found find VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 187 19 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 187 20 be be VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 187 21 infected infect VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 187 22 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 187 23 as as IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 187 24 reported report VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 187 25 by by IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 187 26 Cai Cai NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 187 27 et et FW cord-328957-mzi8504f 187 28 al al NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 187 29 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 188 1 [ [ -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 188 2 17 17 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 188 3 ] ] -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 188 4 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 189 1 Therefore therefore RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 189 2 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 189 3 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 189 4 infected infected JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 189 5 207 207 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 189 6 rate rate NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 189 7 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 189 8 set set VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 189 9 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 189 10 8 8 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 189 11 30 30 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 189 12 = = SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 189 13 0.266 0.266 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 189 14 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 190 1 Numerical numerical JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 190 2 solution solution NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 191 1 To to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 191 2 obtain obtain VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 191 3 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 191 4 better well JJR cord-328957-mzi8504f 191 5 understanding understanding NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 191 6 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 191 7 how how WRB cord-328957-mzi8504f 191 8 different different JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 191 9 parameter parameter NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 191 10 values value NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 191 11 influence influence VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 191 12 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 191 13 system system NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 191 14 210 210 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 191 15 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 191 16 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 191 17 we -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 191 18 illustrate illustrate VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 191 19 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 191 20 behavior behavior NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 191 21 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 191 22 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 191 23 system system NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 191 24 using use VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 191 25 numerical numerical JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 191 26 analysis analysis NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 191 27 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 192 1 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 192 2 D D NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 192 3 a a NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 192 4 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 192 5 t t NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 192 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 192 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 192 8 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 193 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 193 2 processed process VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 193 3 eight eight CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 193 4 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 193 5 order order NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 193 6 Runge Runge NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 193 7 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 193 8 Kutta Kutta NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 193 9 integration integration NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 193 10 on on IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 193 11 214 214 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 193 12 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 193 13 differential differential JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 193 14 system system NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 193 15 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 193 16 enable enable VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 193 17 numerical numerical JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 193 18 simulations simulation NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 193 19 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 194 1 Runge Runge NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 194 2 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 194 3 Kutta Kutta NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 194 4 integration integration NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 194 5 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 194 6 215 215 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 194 7 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 194 8 equations equation NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 194 9 was be VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 194 10 implemented implement VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 194 11 by by IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 194 12 Octave Octave NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 194 13 programming programming NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 194 14 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 194 15 version version NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 194 16 5.2.0 5.2.0 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 194 17 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 194 18 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 194 19 using use VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 194 20 standard standard JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 194 21 216 216 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 194 22 program program NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 194 23 lsode lsode NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 194 24 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 194 25 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 194 26 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 194 27 set set NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 194 28 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 194 29 initial initial JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 194 30 conditions condition NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 194 31 described describe VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 194 32 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 194 33 Eq Eq NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 194 34 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 194 35 10 10 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 194 36 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 194 37 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 195 1 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 195 2 solutions solution NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 195 3 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 195 4 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 195 5 system system NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 195 6 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 195 7 9 9 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 195 8 - - SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 195 9 10 10 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 195 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 195 11 are be VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 195 12 shown show VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 195 13 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 195 14 Fig Fig NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 195 15 3 3 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 195 16 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 196 1 In in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 196 2 addition addition NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 196 3 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 196 4 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 196 5 population population NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 196 6 218 218 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 196 7 size size NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 196 8 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 196 9 adults adult NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 196 10 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 196 11 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 196 12 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 196 13 are be VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 196 14 set set VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 196 15 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 196 16 be be VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 196 17 N n NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 196 18 = = SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 196 19 8000000 8000000 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 196 20 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 196 21 N n CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 196 22 c c NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 196 23 = = SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 196 24 2240000 2240000 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 196 25 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 196 26 N N NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 196 27 a a NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 196 28 = = SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 196 29 5760000 5760000 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 196 30 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 196 31 219 219 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 196 32 present present VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 196 33 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 196 34 distribution distribution NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 196 35 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 196 36 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 196 37 Israeli israeli JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 196 38 population population NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 196 39 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 196 40 2017 2017 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 196 41 as as IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 196 42 published publish VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 196 43 by by IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 196 44 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 196 45 Israeli israeli JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 196 46 220 220 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 196 47 November November NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 196 48 2 2 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 196 49 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 196 50 2020 2020 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 196 51 8/28 8/28 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 196 52 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 197 1 CC CC NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 197 2 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 197 3 BY BY NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 197 4 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 197 5 NC NC NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 197 6 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 197 7 ND ND NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 197 8 4.0 4.0 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 197 9 International international JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 197 10 license license NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 198 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 198 2 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 198 3 made make VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 198 4 available available JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 198 5 under under IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 198 6 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 199 1 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 199 2 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 199 3 author author NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 199 4 / / SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 199 5 funder funder NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 199 6 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 199 7 who who WP cord-328957-mzi8504f 199 8 has have VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 199 9 granted grant VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 199 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 199 11 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 199 12 license license NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 199 13 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 199 14 display display VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 199 15 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 199 16 preprint preprint NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 199 17 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 199 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 199 19 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 200 1 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 200 2 copyright copyright NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 200 3 holder holder NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 200 4 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 200 5 this this DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 200 6 preprint preprint NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 200 7 this this DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 200 8 version version NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 200 9 posted post VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 200 10 November November NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 200 11 4 4 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 200 12 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 200 13 2020 2020 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 200 14 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 201 1 ; ; : cord-328957-mzi8504f 201 2 _SP cord-328957-mzi8504f 201 3 where where WRB cord-328957-mzi8504f 201 4 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 201 5 x x NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 201 6 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 201 7 axis axis NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 201 8 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 201 9 all all DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 201 10 eight eight CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 201 11 graphs graph NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 201 12 represents represent VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 201 13 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 201 14 222 222 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 201 15 time time NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 201 16 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 201 17 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 201 18 days day NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 201 19 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 201 20 that that WDT cord-328957-mzi8504f 201 21 has have VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 201 22 passed pass VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 201 23 from from IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 201 24 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 201 25 beginning beginning NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 201 26 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 201 27 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 201 28 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 201 29 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 201 30 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 201 31 y y NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 201 32 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 201 33 axis axis NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 201 34 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 201 35 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 201 36 223 223 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 201 37 size size NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 201 38 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 201 39 each each DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 201 40 population population NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 201 41 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 201 42 respectively respectively RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 201 43 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 202 1 A a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 202 2 maximum maximum NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 202 3 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 202 4 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 202 5 percent percent NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 202 6 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 202 7 infected infected JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 202 8 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 202 9 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 202 10 224 224 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 202 11 adults adult NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 202 12 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 202 13 39 39 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 202 14 % % NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 202 15 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 202 16 89 89 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 202 17 % % NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 202 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 202 19 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 202 20 reached reach VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 202 21 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 202 22 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 202 23 8th 8th JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 202 24 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 202 25 11th 11th JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 202 26 days day NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 202 27 as as IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 202 28 shown show VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 202 29 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 202 30 Fig Fig NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 202 31 3 3 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 202 32 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 203 1 Therefore therefore RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 203 2 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 203 3 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 203 4 225 225 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 203 5 maximum maximum JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 203 6 infected infected JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 203 7 population population NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 203 8 was be VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 203 9 89 89 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 203 10 % % NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 203 11 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 203 12 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 203 13 whole whole JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 203 14 population population NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 203 15 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 204 1 Besides besides RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 204 2 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 204 3 all all DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 204 4 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 204 5 226 226 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 204 6 infected infect VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 204 7 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 204 8 recovered recover VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 204 9 after after IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 204 10 17 17 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 204 11 days day NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 204 12 while while IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 204 13 all all DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 204 14 adults adult NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 204 15 recovered recover VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 204 16 after after IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 204 17 82 82 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 204 18 days day NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 204 19 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 205 1 In in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 205 2 epidemiology epidemiology NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 205 3 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 205 4 it -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 205 5 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 205 6 essential essential JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 205 7 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 205 8 quantify quantify VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 205 9 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 205 10 severity severity NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 205 11 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 205 12 outbreaks outbreak NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 205 13 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 205 14 infectious infectious JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 205 15 diseases disease NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 205 16 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 206 1 229 229 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 207 1 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 207 2 standard standard JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 207 3 parameter parameter NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 207 4 indicates indicate VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 207 5 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 207 6 severity severity NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 207 7 called call VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 207 8 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 207 9 basic basic JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 207 10 reproduction reproduction NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 207 11 number number NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 207 12 R r NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 207 13 0 0 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 207 14 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 208 1 230 230 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 209 1 In in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 209 2 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 209 3 standard standard JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 209 4 SIR SIR NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 209 5 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 209 6 [ [ -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 209 7 22 22 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 209 8 ] ] -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 209 9 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 209 10 R r NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 209 11 0 0 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 209 12 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 209 13 defined define VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 209 14 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 209 15 be be VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 209 16 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 209 17 ratio ratio NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 209 18 between between IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 209 19 individual individual JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 209 20 infection infection NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 209 21 231 231 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 209 22 rate rate NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 209 23 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 209 24 recovery recovery NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 209 25 rate rate NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 209 26 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 209 27 where where WRB cord-328957-mzi8504f 209 28 almost almost RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 209 29 everyone everyone NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 209 30 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 209 31 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 209 32 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 209 33 namely namely RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 209 34 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 209 35 S s NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 209 36 c c NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 209 37 + + CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 209 38 S S NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 209 39 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 209 40 ∼ ∼ NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 209 41 N n CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 209 42 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 209 43 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 210 1 For for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 210 2 232 232 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 210 3 any any DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 210 4 start start NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 210 5 condition condition NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 210 6 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 210 7 parameters parameter NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 210 8 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 210 9 at at IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 210 10 t t NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 210 11 → → WDT cord-328957-mzi8504f 210 12 ∞ ∞ NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 210 13 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 210 14 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 210 15 's 's POS cord-328957-mzi8504f 210 16 state state NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 210 17 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 210 18 an an DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 210 19 instance instance NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 210 20 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 210 21 Eq Eq NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 210 22 233 233 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 210 23 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 210 24 10 10 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 210 25 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 210 26 according accord VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 210 27 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 210 28 Lemma Lemma NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 210 29 1 1 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 210 30 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 211 1 Definition definition NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 211 2 1 1 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 211 3 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 212 1 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 212 2 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 212 3 's 's POS cord-328957-mzi8504f 212 4 state state NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 212 5 at at IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 212 6 time time NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 213 1 t t NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 213 2 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 213 3 defined define VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 213 4 by by IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 213 5 where where WRB cord-328957-mzi8504f 213 6 g g NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 213 7 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 213 8 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 213 9 function function NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 213 10 g g NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 213 11 : : : cord-328957-mzi8504f 213 12 November November NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 213 13 2 2 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 213 14 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 213 15 2020 2020 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 213 16 9/28 9/28 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 213 17 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 214 1 CC CC NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 214 2 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 214 3 BY BY NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 214 4 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 214 5 NC NC NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 214 6 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 214 7 ND ND NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 214 8 4.0 4.0 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 214 9 International international JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 214 10 license license NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 214 11 It -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 214 12 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 214 13 made make VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 214 14 available available JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 214 15 under under IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 214 16 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 215 1 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 215 2 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 215 3 author author NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 215 4 / / SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 215 5 funder funder NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 215 6 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 215 7 who who WP cord-328957-mzi8504f 215 8 has have VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 215 9 granted grant VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 215 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 215 11 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 215 12 license license NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 215 13 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 215 14 display display VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 215 15 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 215 16 preprint preprint NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 215 17 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 215 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 215 19 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 216 1 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 216 2 copyright copyright NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 216 3 holder holder NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 216 4 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 216 5 this this DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 216 6 preprint preprint NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 216 7 this this DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 216 8 version version NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 216 9 posted post VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 216 10 November November NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 216 11 4 4 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 216 12 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 216 13 2020 2020 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 216 14 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 216 15 ; ; : cord-328957-mzi8504f 216 16 Table table NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 216 17 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 217 1 1 1 LS cord-328957-mzi8504f 217 2 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 218 1 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 218 2 graphs graph NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 218 3 show show VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 218 4 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 218 5 evolution evolution NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 218 6 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 218 7 time time NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 218 8 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 218 9 days day NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 218 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 218 11 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 218 12 S S NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 218 13 c c NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 218 14 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 218 15 t t NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 218 16 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 218 17 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 218 18 S S NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 218 19 a a LS cord-328957-mzi8504f 218 20 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 218 21 t t NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 218 22 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 218 23 , , . cord-328957-mzi8504f 219 1 I -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 219 2 c c NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 219 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 219 4 t t NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 219 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 219 6 , , . cord-328957-mzi8504f 220 1 I -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 220 2 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 220 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 220 4 t t NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 220 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 220 6 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 220 7 R r NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 220 8 c c NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 220 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 220 10 t t NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 220 11 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 220 12 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 220 13 R R NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 220 14 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 220 15 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 220 16 t t NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 220 17 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 220 18 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 220 19 D D NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 220 20 c c NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 220 21 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 220 22 t t NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 220 23 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 220 24 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 220 25 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 220 26 D D NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 220 27 a a NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 220 28 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 220 29 t t NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 220 30 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 220 31 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 221 1 Adult adult NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 221 2 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 221 3 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 221 4 graphs graph NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 221 5 are be VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 221 6 presented present VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 221 7 with with IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 221 8 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 221 9 dotted dotted JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 221 10 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 221 11 solid solid JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 221 12 lines line NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 221 13 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 221 14 respectively respectively RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 221 15 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 222 1 Susceptible susceptible JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 222 2 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 222 3 infected infected JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 222 4 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 222 5 recovered recover VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 222 6 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 222 7 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 222 8 dead dead JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 222 9 are be VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 222 10 shown show VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 222 11 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 222 12 green green JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 222 13 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 222 14 red red JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 222 15 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 222 16 blue blue JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 222 17 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 222 18 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 222 19 black black JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 222 20 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 222 21 respectively respectively RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 222 22 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 223 1 November November NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 223 2 2 2 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 223 3 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 223 4 2020 2020 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 223 5 10/28 10/28 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 223 6 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 224 1 CC CC NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 224 2 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 224 3 BY BY NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 224 4 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 224 5 NC NC NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 224 6 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 224 7 ND ND NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 224 8 4.0 4.0 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 224 9 International international JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 224 10 license license NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 225 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 225 2 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 225 3 made make VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 225 4 available available JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 225 5 under under IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 225 6 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 226 1 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 226 2 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 226 3 author author NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 226 4 / / SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 226 5 funder funder NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 226 6 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 226 7 who who WP cord-328957-mzi8504f 226 8 has have VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 226 9 granted grant VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 226 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 226 11 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 226 12 license license NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 226 13 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 226 14 display display VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 226 15 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 226 16 preprint preprint NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 226 17 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 226 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 226 19 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 227 1 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 227 2 copyright copyright NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 227 3 holder holder NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 227 4 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 227 5 this this DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 227 6 preprint preprint NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 227 7 this this DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 227 8 version version NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 227 9 posted post VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 227 10 November November NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 227 11 4 4 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 227 12 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 227 13 2020 2020 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 227 14 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 228 1 ; ; : cord-328957-mzi8504f 228 2 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.11.02.20224584 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.11.02.20224584 NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 228 3 doi doi NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 228 4 : : : cord-328957-mzi8504f 229 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 229 2 preprint preprint NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 229 3 Proof Proof NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 229 4 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 230 1 Define define VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 230 2 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 230 3 non non JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 230 4 - - JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 230 5 homogeneous homogeneous JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 230 6 continuous continuous JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 230 7 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 230 8 time time NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 230 9 Markov Markov NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 230 10 chain chain NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 230 11 M M NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 230 12 with with IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 230 13 state state NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 230 14 space space NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 230 15 240 240 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 230 16 with with IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 230 17 eight eight CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 230 18 values value NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 230 19 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 230 20 respect respect NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 230 21 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 230 22 S S NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 230 23 c c NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 230 24 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 230 25 S S NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 230 26 a a NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 230 27 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 231 1 I -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 231 2 c c NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 231 3 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 231 4 I -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 231 5 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 231 6 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 231 7 R r NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 231 8 c c NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 231 9 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 232 1 R R NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 232 2 a a NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 232 3 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 232 4 D D NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 232 5 c c NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 232 6 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 232 7 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 232 8 D D NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 232 9 a a NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 232 10 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 233 1 Table table NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 233 2 2 2 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 233 3 represents represent VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 233 4 241 241 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 233 5 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 233 6 transition transition NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 233 7 matrix matrix NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 233 8 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 233 9 M M NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 233 10 where where WRB cord-328957-mzi8504f 233 11 In in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 233 12 order order NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 233 13 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 233 14 model model VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 233 15 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 233 16 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 233 17 as as IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 233 18 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 233 19 Markov Markov NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 233 20 chain chain NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 233 21 one one PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 233 22 needs need VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 233 23 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 233 24 show show VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 233 25 that that IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 233 26 where where WRB cord-328957-mzi8504f 233 27 { { -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 233 28 X x NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 233 29 } } -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 233 30 t t NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 233 31 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 233 32 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 233 33 stochastic stochastic JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 233 34 process process NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 233 35 with with IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 233 36 values value NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 233 37 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 233 38 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 233 39 state state NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 233 40 space space NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 233 41 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 233 42 all all DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 233 43 t t NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 233 44 ≥ ≥ CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 233 45 0 0 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 233 46 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 233 47 all all DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 233 48 244 244 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 233 49 states state NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 233 50 i i PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 233 51 0 0 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 233 52 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 233 53 ... ... . cord-328957-mzi8504f 234 1 i i PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 234 2 t t NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 234 3 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 234 4 j j NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 234 5 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 234 6 h h NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 234 7 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 234 8 an an DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 234 9 arbitrary arbitrary JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 234 10 small small JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 234 11 step step NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 234 12 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 234 13 time time NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 234 14 [ [ -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 234 15 31 31 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 234 16 ] ] -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 234 17 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 235 1 M M NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 235 2 satisfies satisfy VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 235 3 Eq Eq NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 235 4 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 235 5 12 12 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 235 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 235 7 _SP cord-328957-mzi8504f 235 8 such such JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 235 9 that that IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 235 10 (= (= NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 235 11 * * NFP cord-328957-mzi8504f 235 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 235 13 stands stand VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 235 14 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 235 15 I -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 236 1 c c NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 237 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 237 2 t+h t+h NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 237 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 237 4 = = NFP cord-328957-mzi8504f 238 1 I -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 239 1 c c LS cord-328957-mzi8504f 239 2 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 239 3 t)+dI t)+dI NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 239 4 c c NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 239 5 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 239 6 t t NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 239 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 239 8 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 239 9 I -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 239 10 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 240 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 240 2 t+h t+h NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 240 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 240 4 = = NFP cord-328957-mzi8504f 241 1 I -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 241 2 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 241 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 241 4 t)+dI t)+di FW cord-328957-mzi8504f 241 5 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 241 6 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 241 7 t t NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 241 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 241 9 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 242 1 From from IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 242 2 Eq Eq NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 242 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 242 4 13 13 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 242 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 242 6 247 247 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 242 7 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 242 8 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 242 9 14 14 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 242 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 242 11 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 242 12 v v NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 242 13 1 1 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 242 14 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 242 15 t t NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 242 16 + + CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 242 17 h h NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 242 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 242 19 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 242 20 v v LS cord-328957-mzi8504f 242 21 2 2 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 242 22 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 242 23 t t NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 242 24 + + CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 242 25 h h NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 242 26 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 242 27 depends depend VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 242 28 only only RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 242 29 on on IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 242 30 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 242 31 previous previous JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 242 32 state state NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 242 33 X x NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 242 34 t t NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 242 35 = = SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 242 36 i i NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 242 37 t t NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 242 38 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 242 39 respectively respectively RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 242 40 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 243 1 248 248 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 243 2 Let let VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 243 3 π π NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 243 4 ∈ ∈ NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 243 5 N N NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 243 6 8 8 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 243 7 be be VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 243 8 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 243 9 initial initial JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 243 10 condition condition NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 243 11 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 243 12 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 243 13 system system NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 243 14 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 244 1 Therefore therefore RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 244 2 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 244 3 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 244 4 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 244 5 's 's POS cord-328957-mzi8504f 244 6 state state NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 244 7 at at IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 244 8 some some DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 244 9 249 249 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 244 10 time time NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 244 11 t t NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 244 12 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 244 13 defined define VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 244 14 by by IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 244 15 A a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 244 16 t t NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 244 17 π π NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 244 18 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 245 1 For for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 245 2 any any DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 245 3 initial initial JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 245 4 condition condition NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 245 5 π π NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 245 6 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 245 7 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 245 8 vector vector NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 245 9 lim lim NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 245 10 t→∞ t→∞ NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 245 11 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 245 12 A a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 245 13 t t NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 245 14 π π NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 245 15 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 245 16 takes take VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 245 17 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 245 18 250 250 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 245 19 form form NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 245 20 _SP cord-328957-mzi8504f 245 21 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 245 22 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 245 23 lim lim NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 245 24 t→∞ t→∞ NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 245 25 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 245 26 1 1 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 245 27 − − NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 245 28 α α NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 245 29 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 245 30 t t NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 245 31 = = SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 245 32 0 0 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 245 33 meaning meaning NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 245 34 that that IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 245 35 asymptotically asymptotically RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 245 36 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 245 37 population population NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 245 38 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 245 39 S S NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 245 40 c c NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 245 41 decreases decrease VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 245 42 258 258 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 245 43 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 245 44 zero zero CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 245 45 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 246 1 Therefore therefore RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 246 2 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 246 3 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 246 4 asymptotic asymptotic JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 246 5 state state NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 246 6 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 246 7 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 246 8 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 246 9 takes take VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 246 10 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 246 11 form form NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 246 12 : : : cord-328957-mzi8504f 246 13 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 246 14 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 246 15 any any DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 246 16 initial initial JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 246 17 condition condition NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 246 18 π π NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 246 19 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 246 20 parameters parameter NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 246 21 such such JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 246 22 that that IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 246 23 α α NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 246 24 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 246 25 γ γ NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 246 26 a a NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 246 27 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 246 28 γ γ NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 246 29 c c NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 246 30 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 246 31 β β NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 246 32 aa aa NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 246 33 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 246 34 β β NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 246 35 cc cc NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 246 36 > > XX cord-328957-mzi8504f 246 37 0 0 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 246 38 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 247 1 In in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 247 2 order order NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 247 3 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 247 4 find find VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 247 5 g g NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 247 6 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 247 7 from from IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 247 8 Lemma Lemma NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 247 9 1 1 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 247 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 247 11 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 247 12 given give VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 247 13 initial initial JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 247 14 conditions condition NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 247 15 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 247 16 parameters parameter NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 247 17 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 247 18 it -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 247 19 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 247 20 262 262 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 247 21 possible possible JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 247 22 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 247 23 use use VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 247 24 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 247 25 next next JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 247 26 generation generation NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 247 27 matrix matrix NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 247 28 approach approach NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 247 29 [ [ -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 247 30 32 32 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 247 31 ] ] -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 247 32 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 248 1 Let let VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 248 2 V v NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 249 1 + + CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 249 2 i i PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 249 3 be be VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 249 4 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 249 5 rate rate NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 249 6 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 249 7 transfer transfer NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 249 8 263 263 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 249 9 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 249 10 individuals individual NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 249 11 by by IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 249 12 all all DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 249 13 means mean NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 249 14 except except IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 249 15 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 249 16 appearance appearance NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 249 17 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 249 18 new new JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 249 19 infections infection NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 249 20 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 249 21 compartment compartment NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 249 22 i i NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 249 23 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 249 24 264 264 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 249 25 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 249 26 V V NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 249 27 − − NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 250 1 i i PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 250 2 be be VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 250 3 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 250 4 rate rate NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 250 5 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 250 6 transfer transfer NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 250 7 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 250 8 individuals individual NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 250 9 out out IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 250 10 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 250 11 compartment compartment NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 250 12 i. i. NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 251 1 Let let VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 251 2 F F NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 251 3 i i PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 251 4 be be VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 251 5 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 251 6 rate rate NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 251 7 265 265 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 251 8 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 251 9 appearance appearance NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 251 10 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 251 11 new new JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 251 12 infections infection NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 251 13 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 251 14 compartment compartment NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 251 15 i. i. NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 251 16 Eq eq NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 251 17 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 251 18 1 1 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 251 19 -8 -8 NNPS cord-328957-mzi8504f 251 20 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 251 21 takes take VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 251 22 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 251 23 form form NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 251 24 : : : cord-328957-mzi8504f 251 25 November November NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 251 26 2 2 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 251 27 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 251 28 2020 2020 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 251 29 11/28 11/28 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 251 30 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 252 1 CC CC NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 252 2 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 252 3 BY BY NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 252 4 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 252 5 NC NC NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 252 6 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 252 7 ND ND NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 252 8 4.0 4.0 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 252 9 International international JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 252 10 license license NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 253 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 253 2 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 253 3 made make VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 253 4 available available JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 253 5 under under IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 253 6 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 254 1 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 254 2 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 254 3 author author NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 254 4 / / SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 254 5 funder funder NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 254 6 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 254 7 who who WP cord-328957-mzi8504f 254 8 has have VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 254 9 granted grant VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 254 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 254 11 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 254 12 license license NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 254 13 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 254 14 display display VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 254 15 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 254 16 preprint preprint NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 254 17 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 254 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 254 19 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 255 1 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 255 2 copyright copyright NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 255 3 holder holder NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 255 4 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 255 5 this this DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 255 6 preprint preprint NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 255 7 this this DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 255 8 version version NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 255 9 posted post VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 255 10 November November NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 255 11 4 4 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 255 12 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 255 13 2020 2020 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 255 14 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 256 1 ; ; : cord-328957-mzi8504f 256 2 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.11.02.20224584 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.11.02.20224584 NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 256 3 doi doi NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 256 4 : : : cord-328957-mzi8504f 257 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 257 2 preprint preprint NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 257 3 Table Table NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 257 4 2 2 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 257 5 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 258 1 Markov Markov NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 258 2 chain chain NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 258 3 transformation transformation NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 258 4 matrix matrix NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 258 5 representation representation NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 258 6 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 258 7 Eq Eq NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 258 8 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 258 9 1 1 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 258 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 258 11 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 258 12 2 2 LS cord-328957-mzi8504f 258 13 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 258 14 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 258 15 3 3 LS cord-328957-mzi8504f 258 16 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 258 17 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 258 18 4 4 LS cord-328957-mzi8504f 258 19 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 258 20 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 258 21 5 5 LS cord-328957-mzi8504f 258 22 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 258 23 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 258 24 6 6 LS cord-328957-mzi8504f 258 25 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 258 26 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 258 27 7 7 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 258 28 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 259 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 259 2 8) 8) NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 259 3 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 260 1 In in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 260 2 equilibrium equilibrium NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 260 3 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 260 4 I -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 260 5 c c NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 260 6 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 260 7 I -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 260 8 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 260 9 are be VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 260 10 both both RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 260 11 equal equal JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 260 12 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 260 13 zero zero CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 261 1 so so IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 261 2 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 261 3 derivatives derivative NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 261 4 at at IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 261 5 equilibrium equilibrium NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 261 6 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 261 7 270 270 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 261 8 focusing focus VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 261 9 on on IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 261 10 I -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 261 11 c c NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 262 1 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 262 2 I -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 262 3 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 262 4 from from IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 262 5 Eqs Eqs NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 262 6 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 263 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 263 2 3 3 LS cord-328957-mzi8504f 263 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 263 4 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 263 5 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 263 6 4 4 LS cord-328957-mzi8504f 263 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 263 8 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 263 9 are be VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 263 10 mapped map VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 263 11 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 263 12 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 263 13 third third JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 263 14 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 263 15 forth forth JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 263 16 elements element NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 263 17 271 271 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 263 18 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 263 19 vectors vector NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 263 20 F F NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 263 21 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 263 22 V v NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 263 23 giving give VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 263 24 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 263 25 matrices matrix NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 263 26 F F NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 263 27 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 263 28 V. V. NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 264 1 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 264 2 next next JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 264 3 generation generation NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 264 4 matrix matrix NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 264 5 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 264 6 defined define VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 264 7 as as IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 264 8 FV FV NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 264 9 −1 −1 NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 264 10 [ [ -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 264 11 32 32 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 264 12 ] ] -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 264 13 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 264 14 _SP cord-328957-mzi8504f 265 1 After after IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 265 2 one one CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 265 3 time time NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 265 4 unit unit NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 265 5 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 265 6 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 265 7 amount amount NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 265 8 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 265 9 infected infected JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 265 10 individuals individual NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 265 11 can can MD cord-328957-mzi8504f 265 12 be be VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 265 13 275 275 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 265 14 calculated calculate VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 265 15 using use VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 265 16 v v NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 265 17 = = SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 265 18 Gv Gv NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 265 19 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 266 1 Therefore therefore RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 266 2 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 266 3 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 266 4 any any DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 266 5 start start NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 266 6 condition condition NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 266 7 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 266 8 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 266 9 parameters parameter VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 266 10 one one CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 266 11 276 276 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 266 12 can can MD cord-328957-mzi8504f 266 13 find find VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 266 14 g g NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 266 15 by by IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 266 16 calculating calculate VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 266 17 where where WRB cord-328957-mzi8504f 266 18 C c NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 266 19 ∈ ∈ NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 267 1 N N NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 267 2 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 267 3 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 267 4 first first JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 267 5 index index NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 267 6 that that WDT cord-328957-mzi8504f 267 7 satisfies satisfy VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 267 8 I -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 267 9 c c NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 267 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 267 11 C C NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 267 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 268 1 + + CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 269 1 I -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 269 2 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 269 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 269 4 C c NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 269 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 269 6 = = SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 269 7 0 0 NFP cord-328957-mzi8504f 269 8 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 269 9 _SP cord-328957-mzi8504f 270 1 Both both DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 270 2 γ γ NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 270 3 c c NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 270 4 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 270 5 γ γ NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 270 6 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 270 7 are be VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 270 8 biological biological JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 270 9 properties property NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 270 10 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 270 11 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 270 12 disease disease NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 270 13 ; ; : cord-328957-mzi8504f 270 14 on on IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 270 15 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 270 16 other other JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 270 17 hand hand NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 270 18 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 270 19 β β NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 270 20 aa aa NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 270 21 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 270 22 β β NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 270 23 ac ac NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 270 24 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 270 25 β β NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 270 26 ca ca NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 270 27 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 270 28 286 286 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 270 29 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 271 1 β β NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 271 2 cc cc NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 271 3 can can MD cord-328957-mzi8504f 271 4 be be VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 271 5 managed manage VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 271 6 using use VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 271 7 social social JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 271 8 distance distance NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 271 9 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 271 10 quarantine quarantine NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 271 11 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 271 12 masks mask NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 271 13 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 271 14 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 271 15 other other JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 271 16 meth-287 meth-287 NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 271 17 ods od NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 271 18 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 272 1 Figs fig NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 272 2 4a 4a CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 272 3 -4e -4e VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 272 4 presents present VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 272 5 five five CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 272 6 projections projection NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 272 7 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 272 8 stability stability NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 272 9 from from IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 272 10 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 272 11 parameter parameter NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 272 12 space space NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 272 13 288 288 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 272 14 November November NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 272 15 2 2 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 272 16 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 272 17 2020 2020 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 272 18 12/28 12/28 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 272 19 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 273 1 CC CC NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 273 2 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 273 3 BY BY NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 273 4 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 273 5 NC NC NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 273 6 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 273 7 ND ND NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 273 8 4.0 4.0 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 273 9 International international JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 273 10 license license NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 274 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 274 2 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 274 3 made make VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 274 4 available available JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 274 5 under under IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 274 6 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 275 1 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 275 2 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 275 3 author author NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 275 4 / / SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 275 5 funder funder NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 275 6 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 275 7 who who WP cord-328957-mzi8504f 275 8 has have VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 275 9 granted grant VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 275 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 275 11 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 275 12 license license NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 275 13 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 275 14 display display VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 275 15 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 275 16 preprint preprint NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 275 17 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 275 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 275 19 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 276 1 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 276 2 copyright copyright NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 276 3 holder holder NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 276 4 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 276 5 this this DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 276 6 preprint preprint NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 276 7 this this DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 276 8 version version NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 276 9 posted post VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 276 10 November November NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 276 11 4 4 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 276 12 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 276 13 2020 2020 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 276 14 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 277 1 ; ; : cord-328957-mzi8504f 277 2 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.11.02.20224584 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.11.02.20224584 NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 277 3 doi doi NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 277 4 : : : cord-328957-mzi8504f 278 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 278 2 preprint preprint NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 278 3 { { -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 278 4 β β NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 278 5 aa aa NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 278 6 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 278 7 β β NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 278 8 ac ac NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 278 9 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 278 10 β β NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 278 11 ca ca NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 278 12 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 278 13 β β NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 278 14 cc cc NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 278 15 } } -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 278 16 calculated calculate VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 278 17 using use VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 278 18 Eq Eq NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 278 19 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 278 20 16 16 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 278 21 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 278 22 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 279 1 Fig fig NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 279 2 4a 4a CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 279 3 shows show VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 279 4 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 279 5 β β NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 279 6 aa aa NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 279 7 − − NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 279 8 β β NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 279 9 ac ac NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 279 10 projection projection NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 279 11 289 289 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 279 12 where where WRB cord-328957-mzi8504f 279 13 β β NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 279 14 cc cc NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 279 15 = = SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 279 16 0.308 0.308 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 279 17 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 279 18 β β NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 279 19 ca ca NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 279 20 = = NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 279 21 0.266 0.266 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 279 22 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 280 1 There there EX cord-328957-mzi8504f 280 2 are be VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 280 3 no no DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 280 4 values value NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 280 5 such such JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 280 6 that that IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 280 7 R r NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 280 8 0 0 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 280 9 < < XX cord-328957-mzi8504f 280 10 1 1 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 280 11 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 280 12 from from IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 280 13 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 280 14 290 290 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 280 15 color color NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 280 16 gradient gradient NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 280 17 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 280 18 it -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 280 19 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 280 20 possible possible JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 280 21 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 280 22 see see VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 280 23 that that IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 280 24 β β NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 280 25 ac ac NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 280 26 has have VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 280 27 slightly slightly RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 280 28 more more JJR cord-328957-mzi8504f 280 29 influence influence NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 280 30 on on IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 280 31 R r NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 280 32 0 0 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 280 33 relatively relatively RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 280 34 291 291 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 280 35 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 280 36 β β NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 280 37 aa aa NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 280 38 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 281 1 Fig fig NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 281 2 4b 4b NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 281 3 shows show VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 281 4 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 281 5 β β XX cord-328957-mzi8504f 281 6 aa aa NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 281 7 − − NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 281 8 β β NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 281 9 ca ca MD cord-328957-mzi8504f 281 10 projection projection NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 281 11 where where WRB cord-328957-mzi8504f 281 12 β β NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 281 13 cc cc NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 281 14 = = SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 281 15 0.308 0.308 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 281 16 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 281 17 β β NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 281 18 ac ac NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 281 19 = = NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 281 20 0 0 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 281 21 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 282 1 There there EX cord-328957-mzi8504f 282 2 are be VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 282 3 no no DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 282 4 292 292 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 282 5 values value NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 282 6 such such JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 282 7 that that IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 282 8 R r NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 282 9 0 0 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 282 10 < < XX cord-328957-mzi8504f 282 11 1 1 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 282 12 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 282 13 from from IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 282 14 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 282 15 color color NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 282 16 gradient gradient NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 282 17 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 282 18 it -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 282 19 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 282 20 possible possible JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 282 21 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 282 22 see see VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 282 23 that that IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 282 24 β β NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 282 25 aa aa NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 282 26 has have VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 282 27 293 293 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 282 28 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 282 29 minor minor JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 282 30 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 282 31 no no DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 282 32 influence influence NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 282 33 on on IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 282 34 R r NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 282 35 0 0 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 282 36 relatively relatively RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 282 37 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 282 38 β β NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 282 39 ca ca NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 282 40 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 283 1 Fig fig NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 283 2 4c 4c CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 283 3 shows show VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 283 4 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 283 5 β β NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 283 6 cc cc NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 283 7 − − NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 283 8 β β NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 283 9 ca ca MD cord-328957-mzi8504f 283 10 projection projection NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 283 11 294 294 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 283 12 where where WRB cord-328957-mzi8504f 283 13 β β NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 283 14 aa aa NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 283 15 = = NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 283 16 0.308 0.308 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 283 17 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 284 1 β β NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 284 2 ca ca NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 284 3 = = NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 284 4 0.266 0.266 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 284 5 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 285 1 R r NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 285 2 0 0 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 285 3 < < XX cord-328957-mzi8504f 285 4 1 1 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 285 5 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 285 6 any any DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 285 7 combination combination NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 285 8 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 285 9 β β NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 285 10 cc cc CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 285 11 , , . cord-328957-mzi8504f 286 1 β β NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 286 2 ac ac NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 287 1 such such JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 287 2 that that IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 287 3 295 295 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 287 4 β β NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 287 5 ac ac NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 287 6 < < XX cord-328957-mzi8504f 287 7 0.08 0.08 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 287 8 − − NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 287 9 1.6β 1.6β CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 287 10 cc cc NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 287 11 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 288 1 Fig Fig NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 288 2 4d 4d CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 288 3 shows show VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 288 4 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 288 5 β β NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 288 6 cc cc NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 288 7 − − NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 288 8 β β NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 288 9 ac ac NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 288 10 projection projection NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 288 11 where where WRB cord-328957-mzi8504f 288 12 β β NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 288 13 aa aa NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 288 14 = = NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 288 15 0.308 0.308 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 288 16 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 289 1 β β NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 289 2 ac ac NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 289 3 = = NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 289 4 0 0 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 289 5 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 290 1 296 296 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 290 2 R r NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 290 3 0 0 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 290 4 < < XX cord-328957-mzi8504f 290 5 1 1 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 290 6 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 290 7 any any DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 290 8 combination combination NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 290 9 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 290 10 β β NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 290 11 cc cc NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 290 12 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 290 13 β β NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 290 14 ac ac NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 290 15 such such JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 290 16 that that DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 291 1 β β NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 291 2 cc cc NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 291 3 ≤ ≤ NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 291 4 0.3 0.3 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 291 5 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 292 1 Fig Fig NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 292 2 4e 4e CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 292 3 shows show VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 292 4 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 292 5 β β NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 292 6 aa aa NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 292 7 − − NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 292 8 β β NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 292 9 cc cc NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 292 10 297 297 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 292 11 projection projection NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 292 12 where where WRB cord-328957-mzi8504f 292 13 β β NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 292 14 ca ca NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 292 15 = = NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 292 16 0.266 0.266 . cord-328957-mzi8504f 293 1 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 294 1 β β NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 294 2 ac ac NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 294 3 = = NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 294 4 0 0 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 294 5 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 295 1 R r NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 295 2 0 0 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 295 3 < < XX cord-328957-mzi8504f 295 4 1 1 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 295 5 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 295 6 any any DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 295 7 combination combination NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 295 8 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 295 9 β β NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 295 10 aa aa NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 295 11 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 295 12 β β NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 295 13 cc cc VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 295 14 such such JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 295 15 that that IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 295 16 298 298 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 295 17 β β NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 295 18 cc cc NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 295 19 < < XX cord-328957-mzi8504f 295 20 0.9 0.9 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 295 21 − − NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 295 22 0.155β 0.155β NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 295 23 aa aa NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 295 24 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 296 1 In in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 296 2 order order NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 296 3 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 296 4 obtain obtain VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 296 5 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 296 6 equilibria equilibria JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 296 7 points point NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 296 8 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 296 9 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 296 10 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 296 11 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 296 12 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-328957-mzi8504f 296 13 stability stability NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 296 14 properties property NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 296 15 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 296 16 300 300 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 296 17 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 296 18 Jacobian Jacobian NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 296 19 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 296 20 J J NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 296 21 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 296 22 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 296 23 obtained obtain VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 296 24 by by IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 296 25 linearizing linearize VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 296 26 Eqs Eqs NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 296 27 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 296 28 3 3 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 296 29 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 296 30 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 296 31 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 296 32 4 4 LS cord-328957-mzi8504f 296 33 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 296 34 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 296 35 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 296 36 system system NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 296 37 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 296 38 Eqs Eqs NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 296 39 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 296 40 1 1 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 296 41 -8 -8 NNPS cord-328957-mzi8504f 296 42 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 296 43 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 296 44 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 297 1 301 301 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 298 1 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 298 2 calculations calculation NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 298 3 show show VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 298 4 that that IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 298 5 _SP cord-328957-mzi8504f 298 6 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 298 7 system system NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 298 8 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 298 9 Eqs Eqs NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 298 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 298 11 9 9 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 298 12 - - SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 298 13 10 10 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 298 14 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 298 15 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 298 16 has have VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 298 17 four four CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 298 18 non non JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 298 19 - - JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 298 20 trivial trivial JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 298 21 equilibria equilibrium NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 298 22 which which WDT cord-328957-mzi8504f 298 23 may may MD cord-328957-mzi8504f 298 24 be be VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 298 25 found find VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 298 26 by by IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 298 27 setting set VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 298 28 303 303 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 298 29 all all DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 298 30 rates rate NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 298 31 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 298 32 Eq Eq NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 298 33 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 298 34 9 9 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 298 35 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 298 36 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 298 37 zero zero CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 298 38 ; ; , cord-328957-mzi8504f 298 39 marked mark VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 298 40 by by IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 298 41 EQ EQ NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 298 42 1 1 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 298 43 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 298 44 EQ EQ NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 298 45 2 2 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 298 46 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 298 47 EQ EQ NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 298 48 3 3 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 298 49 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 298 50 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 298 51 EQ EQ NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 298 52 4 4 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 298 53 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 299 1 Thus thus RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 299 2 equilibria equilibrium NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 299 3 are be VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 299 4 304 304 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 299 5 provided provide VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 299 6 as as IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 299 7 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 299 8 state state NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 299 9 vector vector NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 299 10 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 299 11 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 299 12 eight eight CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 299 13 population population NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 299 14 states state NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 299 15 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 299 16 Table Table NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 299 17 3 3 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 299 18 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 299 19 where where WRB cord-328957-mzi8504f 299 20 There there EX cord-328957-mzi8504f 299 21 are be VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 299 22 other other JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 299 23 equilibria equilibrium NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 299 24 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 299 25 trivial trivial JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 299 26 cases case NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 299 27 such such JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 299 28 as as IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 299 29 S S NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 299 30 a a NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 299 31 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 299 32 0 0 NFP cord-328957-mzi8504f 299 33 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 299 34 = = SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 299 35 0 0 NFP cord-328957-mzi8504f 299 36 or or CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 299 37 S s NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 299 38 c c NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 299 39 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 299 40 0 0 NFP cord-328957-mzi8504f 299 41 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 299 42 = = SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 299 43 0 0 NFP cord-328957-mzi8504f 299 44 which which WDT cord-328957-mzi8504f 299 45 are be VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 299 46 306 306 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 299 47 unrealistic unrealistic JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 299 48 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 299 49 real real JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 299 50 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 299 51 world world NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 299 52 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 299 53 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 300 1 Below below IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 300 2 we -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 300 3 investigate investigate VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 300 4 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 300 5 stability stability NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 300 6 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 300 7 four four CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 300 8 nontrivial nontrivial JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 300 9 307 307 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 300 10 equilibria equilibrium NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 300 11 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 301 1 308 308 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 301 2 EQ eq NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 301 3 1 1 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 301 4 : : : cord-328957-mzi8504f 301 5 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 301 6 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 301 7 case case NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 301 8 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 301 9 I I NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 301 10 c c NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 301 11 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 301 12 t t NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 301 13 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 301 14 = = NFP cord-328957-mzi8504f 302 1 I -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 302 2 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 302 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 302 4 t t NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 302 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 302 6 = = SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 302 7 0 0 NFP cord-328957-mzi8504f 302 8 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 302 9 every every DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 302 10 t t NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 302 11 ∈ ∈ NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 303 1 N n LS cord-328957-mzi8504f 303 2 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 303 3 see see VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 303 4 Table Table NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 303 5 3 3 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 303 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 303 7 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 304 1 This this DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 304 2 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 304 3 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 304 4 trivial trivial JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 304 5 309 309 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 304 6 equilibrium equilibrium NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 304 7 where where WRB cord-328957-mzi8504f 304 8 there there EX cord-328957-mzi8504f 304 9 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 304 10 no no DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 304 11 epidemic epidemic NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 304 12 at at RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 304 13 all all RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 304 14 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 305 1 Because because IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 305 2 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 305 3 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 305 4 does do VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 305 5 not not RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 305 6 take take VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 305 7 into into IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 305 8 310 310 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 305 9 consideration consideration NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 305 10 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 305 11 birth birth NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 305 12 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 305 13 new new JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 305 14 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 305 15 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 305 16 after after IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 305 17 A a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 305 18 days day NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 305 19 all all DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 305 20 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 305 21 become become VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 305 22 adults adult NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 305 23 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 305 24 EQ eq NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 305 25 1 1 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 305 26 311 311 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 305 27 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 305 28 derived derive VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 305 29 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 306 1 By by IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 306 2 settings setting NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 306 3 J(EQ J(EQ NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 306 4 1 1 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 306 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 306 6 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 306 7 all all DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 306 8 eigenvalues eigenvalue NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 306 9 are be VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 306 10 negative negative JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 306 11 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 306 12 all all DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 306 13 parameter parameter NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 306 14 values value NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 306 15 312 312 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 306 16 except except IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 306 17 λ λ NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 306 18 = = NFP cord-328957-mzi8504f 306 19 −γ −γ VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 306 20 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 306 21 + + NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 307 1 β β NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 307 2 aa aa NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 307 3 N N NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 307 4 a+N a+N NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 307 5 c c NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 307 6 N n NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 307 7 a a NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 307 8 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 308 1 Therefore therefore RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 308 2 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 308 3 this this DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 308 4 equilibrium equilibrium NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 308 5 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 308 6 stable stable JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 308 7 if if IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 308 8 β β NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 309 1 aa aa NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 309 2 N N NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 309 3 a+N a+N NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 309 4 c c NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 309 5 N n NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 309 6 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 309 7 < < XX cord-328957-mzi8504f 309 8 γ γ NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 309 9 a a NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 309 10 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 310 1 EQ EQ NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 310 2 2 2 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 310 3 : : : cord-328957-mzi8504f 310 4 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 310 5 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 310 6 case case NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 310 7 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 310 8 I -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 310 9 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 310 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 310 11 t t NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 310 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 310 13 = = SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 310 14 0 0 NFP cord-328957-mzi8504f 311 1 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 311 2 every every DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 311 3 t t NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 311 4 ∈ ∈ NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 312 1 N n LS cord-328957-mzi8504f 312 2 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 312 3 see see VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 312 4 Table Table NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 312 5 3 3 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 312 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 312 7 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 313 1 This this DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 313 2 equilibrium equilibrium NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 313 3 can can MD cord-328957-mzi8504f 313 4 be be VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 313 5 314 314 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 313 6 achieved achieve VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 313 7 if if IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 313 8 β β NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 313 9 ac ac NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 313 10 = = NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 313 11 0 0 NFP cord-328957-mzi8504f 313 12 because because IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 313 13 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 313 14 any any DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 313 15 other other JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 313 16 case case NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 313 17 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 313 18 assuming assume VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 313 19 S S NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 313 20 a a NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 313 21 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 313 22 0 0 NFP cord-328957-mzi8504f 313 23 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 313 24 > > XX cord-328957-mzi8504f 313 25 0 0 NFP cord-328957-mzi8504f 313 26 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 313 27 exists exist VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 313 28 time time NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 313 29 t t NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 313 30 such such JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 313 31 315 315 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 313 32 that that IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 313 33 dIa(t dIa(t NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 313 34 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 313 35 dt dt NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 313 36 > > XX cord-328957-mzi8504f 313 37 0 0 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 314 1 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 314 2 therefore therefore RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 314 3 I -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 314 4 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 314 5 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 314 6 t t NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 314 7 + + SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 314 8 1 1 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 314 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 314 10 = = NFP cord-328957-mzi8504f 315 1 0 0 NFP cord-328957-mzi8504f 315 2 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 316 1 316 316 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 316 2 EQ eq NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 316 3 3 3 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 316 4 : : : cord-328957-mzi8504f 316 5 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 316 6 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 316 7 case case NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 316 8 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 316 9 I I NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 316 10 c c NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 316 11 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 316 12 t t NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 316 13 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 316 14 = = SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 316 15 0 0 NFP cord-328957-mzi8504f 317 1 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 317 2 every every DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 317 3 t t NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 317 4 ∈ ∈ NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 318 1 N n LS cord-328957-mzi8504f 318 2 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 318 3 see see VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 318 4 Table Table NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 318 5 3 3 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 318 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 318 7 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 319 1 This this DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 319 2 equilibrium equilibrium NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 319 3 can can MD cord-328957-mzi8504f 319 4 be be VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 319 5 317 317 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 319 6 achieved achieve VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 319 7 if if IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 319 8 β β NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 319 9 ca ca NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 319 10 = = SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 319 11 0 0 NFP cord-328957-mzi8504f 319 12 because because IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 319 13 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 319 14 any any DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 319 15 other other JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 319 16 case case NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 319 17 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 319 18 assuming assume VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 319 19 S S NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 319 20 c c NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 319 21 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 319 22 0 0 NFP cord-328957-mzi8504f 319 23 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 319 24 > > XX cord-328957-mzi8504f 319 25 0 0 NFP cord-328957-mzi8504f 319 26 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 319 27 exists exist VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 319 28 time time NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 319 29 t t NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 319 30 such such JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 319 31 318 318 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 319 32 that that WDT cord-328957-mzi8504f 319 33 dIc(t dIc(t NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 319 34 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 319 35 dt dt NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 319 36 > > XX cord-328957-mzi8504f 319 37 0 0 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 320 1 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 320 2 therefore therefore RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 320 3 I -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 320 4 c c NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 321 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 321 2 t t NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 321 3 + + SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 321 4 1 1 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 321 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 321 6 = = SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 321 7 0 0 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 321 8 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 322 1 319 319 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 322 2 EQ eq NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 322 3 4 4 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 322 4 : : : cord-328957-mzi8504f 322 5 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 322 6 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 322 7 case case NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 322 8 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 322 9 ∃t ∃t NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 322 10 such such JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 322 11 that that IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 322 12 I -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 322 13 c c NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 322 14 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 322 15 t t NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 322 16 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 322 17 = = SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 322 18 0 0 NFP cord-328957-mzi8504f 323 1 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 323 2 I -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 323 3 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 323 4 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 323 5 t t NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 323 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 323 7 = = SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 323 8 0 0 NFP cord-328957-mzi8504f 323 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 323 10 see see VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 323 11 Table Table NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 323 12 3 3 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 323 13 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 323 14 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 324 1 This this DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 324 2 320 320 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 324 3 equilibrium equilibrium NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 324 4 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 324 5 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 324 6 generic generic JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 324 7 case case NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 324 8 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 324 9 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 324 10 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 324 11 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 325 1 According accord VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 325 2 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 325 3 Lemma Lemma NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 325 4 1 1 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 325 5 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 325 6 EQ EQ NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 325 7 2 2 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 325 8 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 325 9 EQ EQ NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 325 10 3 3 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 325 11 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 325 12 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 325 13 EQ EQ NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 325 14 4 4 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 325 15 are be VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 325 16 not not RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 325 17 possible possible JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 325 18 asymptotic asymptotic JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 325 19 forms form NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 325 20 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 325 21 322 322 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 325 22 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 325 23 system system NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 325 24 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 325 25 are be VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 325 26 therefore therefore RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 325 27 not not RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 325 28 stable stable JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 325 29 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 325 30 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 326 1 CC CC NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 326 2 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 326 3 BY BY NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 326 4 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 326 5 NC NC NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 326 6 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 326 7 ND ND NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 326 8 4.0 4.0 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 326 9 International international JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 326 10 license license NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 327 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 327 2 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 327 3 made make VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 327 4 available available JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 327 5 under under IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 327 6 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 328 1 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 328 2 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 328 3 author author NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 328 4 / / SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 328 5 funder funder NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 328 6 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 328 7 who who WP cord-328957-mzi8504f 328 8 has have VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 328 9 granted grant VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 328 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 328 11 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 328 12 license license NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 328 13 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 328 14 display display VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 328 15 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 328 16 preprint preprint NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 328 17 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 328 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 328 19 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 329 1 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 329 2 copyright copyright NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 329 3 holder holder NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 329 4 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 329 5 this this DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 329 6 preprint preprint NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 329 7 this this DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 329 8 version version NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 329 9 posted post VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 329 10 November November NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 329 11 4 4 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 329 12 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 329 13 2020 2020 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 329 14 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 330 1 ; ; : cord-328957-mzi8504f 330 2 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.11.02.20224584 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.11.02.20224584 NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 330 3 doi doi NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 330 4 : : : cord-328957-mzi8504f 331 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 331 2 preprint preprint NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 331 3 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 332 1 CC CC NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 332 2 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 332 3 BY BY NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 332 4 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 332 5 NC NC NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 332 6 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 332 7 ND ND NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 332 8 4.0 4.0 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 332 9 International international JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 332 10 license license NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 333 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 333 2 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 333 3 made make VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 333 4 available available JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 333 5 under under IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 333 6 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 334 1 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 334 2 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 334 3 author author NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 334 4 / / SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 334 5 funder funder NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 334 6 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 334 7 who who WP cord-328957-mzi8504f 334 8 has have VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 334 9 granted grant VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 334 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 334 11 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 334 12 license license NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 334 13 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 334 14 display display VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 334 15 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 334 16 preprint preprint NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 334 17 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 334 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 334 19 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 335 1 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 335 2 copyright copyright NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 335 3 holder holder NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 335 4 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 335 5 this this DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 335 6 preprint preprint NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 335 7 this this DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 335 8 version version NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 335 9 posted post VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 335 10 November November NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 335 11 4 4 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 335 12 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 335 13 2020 2020 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 335 14 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 335 15 ; ; : cord-328957-mzi8504f 335 16 Table table NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 335 17 3 3 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 335 18 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 336 1 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 336 2 four four CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 336 3 equilibria equilibrium NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 336 4 solutions solution NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 336 5 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 336 6 Eqs Eqs NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 336 7 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 336 8 9 9 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 336 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 336 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 336 11 10 10 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 336 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 336 13 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 337 1 5 5 LS cord-328957-mzi8504f 337 2 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 338 1 t t NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 338 2 d d NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 338 3 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 338 4 hours hour NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 338 5 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 338 6 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 338 7 day day NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 338 8 that that WDT cord-328957-mzi8504f 338 9 adults adult NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 338 10 are be VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 338 11 at at IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 338 12 home home NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 338 13 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 339 1 t t NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 339 2 n n NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 339 3 a a NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 340 1 = = SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 340 2 24 24 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 340 3 − − NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 340 4 t t NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 340 5 d d NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 340 6 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 340 7 hours hour NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 340 8 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 340 9 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 340 10 day day NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 340 11 that that IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 340 12 334 334 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 340 13 adults adult NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 340 14 are be VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 340 15 at at IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 340 16 work work NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 340 17 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 341 1 335 335 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 342 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 342 2 assume assume VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 342 3 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 342 4 transition transition NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 342 5 from from IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 342 6 home home NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 342 7 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 342 8 either either CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 342 9 work work NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 342 10 or or CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 342 11 school school NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 342 12 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 342 13 back back NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 342 14 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 342 15 immediate immediate JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 342 16 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 342 17 336 336 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 342 18 that that IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 342 19 everybody everybody NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 342 20 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 342 21 following follow VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 342 22 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 342 23 same same JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 342 24 clock clock NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 342 25 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 343 1 Each each DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 343 2 simulation simulation NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 343 3 step step NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 343 4 simulates simulate VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 343 5 one one CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 343 6 hour hour NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 343 7 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 344 1 337 337 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 345 1 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 345 2 population population NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 345 3 size size NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 345 4 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 345 5 constant constant JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 345 6 during during IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 345 7 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 345 8 simulation simulation NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 345 9 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 345 10 initialized initialize VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 345 11 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 345 12 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 345 13 beginning beginning NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 345 14 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 345 15 338 338 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 345 16 each each DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 345 17 iteration iteration NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 345 18 by by IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 345 19 setting set VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 345 20 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 345 21 population population NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 345 22 size size NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 345 23 N N NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 345 24 c c NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 345 25 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 345 26 adult adult NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 345 27 population population NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 345 28 size size NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 345 29 N N NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 345 30 a a NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 345 31 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 346 1 In in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 346 2 339 339 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 346 3 each each DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 346 4 simulation simulation NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 346 5 step step NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 346 6 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 346 7 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 346 8 following follow VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 346 9 three three CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 346 10 actions action NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 346 11 take take VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 346 12 place place NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 346 13 : : : cord-328957-mzi8504f 346 14 340 340 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 346 15 _SP cord-328957-mzi8504f 346 16 group group NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 346 17 there there EX cord-328957-mzi8504f 346 18 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 346 19 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 346 20 change change NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 346 21 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 346 22 β β NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 346 23 aa aa NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 346 24 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 346 25 β β NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 346 26 ac ac NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 346 27 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 346 28 β β NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 346 29 ca ca NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 346 30 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 346 31 or or CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 346 32 β β NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 346 33 cc cc NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 346 34 according accord VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 346 35 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 346 36 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 346 37 age age NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 346 38 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 346 39 class class NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 346 40 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 346 41 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 346 42 342 342 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 346 43 two two CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 346 44 members member NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 346 45 that that IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 346 46 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 346 47 first first JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 346 48 will will MD cord-328957-mzi8504f 346 49 be be VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 346 50 infected infect VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 346 51 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 347 1 343 343 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 347 2 2 2 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 347 3 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 348 1 Each each DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 348 2 infected infected JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 348 3 child child NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 348 4 or or CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 348 5 adult adult NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 348 6 that that WDT cord-328957-mzi8504f 348 7 was be VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 348 8 infected infect VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 348 9 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 348 10 1 1 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 348 11 γc γc NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 348 12 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 348 13 1 1 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 348 14 γa γa NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 348 15 simulation simulation NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 348 16 steps step NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 348 17 becomes become VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 348 18 344 344 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 348 19 either either CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 348 20 recovered recover VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 348 21 or or CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 348 22 deceased decease VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 348 23 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 348 24 respectively respectively RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 348 25 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 349 1 345 345 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 349 2 3 3 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 349 3 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 350 1 According accord VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 350 2 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 350 3 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 350 4 hour hour NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 350 5 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 350 6 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 350 7 day day NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 350 8 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 350 9 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 350 10 adults adult NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 350 11 transition transition NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 350 12 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 350 13 home home NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 350 14 or or CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 350 15 work work VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 350 16 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 350 17 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 350 18 346 346 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 350 19 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 350 20 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 350 21 home home NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 350 22 or or CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 350 23 school school NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 350 24 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 351 1 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 351 2 spatial spatial JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 351 3 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 351 4 adds add VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 351 5 day day NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 351 6 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 351 7 night night NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 351 8 circle circle NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 351 9 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 351 10 three three CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 351 11 main main JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 351 12 locations location NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 351 13 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 351 14 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 351 15 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 351 16 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 351 17 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 351 18 348 348 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 351 19 hybrid hybrid JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 351 20 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 351 21 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 352 1 November November NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 352 2 2 2 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 352 3 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 352 4 2020 2020 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 352 5 15/28 15/28 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 352 6 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 353 1 CC CC NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 353 2 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 353 3 BY BY NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 353 4 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 353 5 NC NC NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 353 6 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 353 7 ND ND NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 353 8 4.0 4.0 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 353 9 International international JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 353 10 license license NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 354 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 354 2 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 354 3 made make VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 354 4 available available JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 354 5 under under IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 354 6 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 355 1 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 355 2 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 355 3 author author NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 355 4 / / SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 355 5 funder funder NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 355 6 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 355 7 who who WP cord-328957-mzi8504f 355 8 has have VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 355 9 granted grant VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 355 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 355 11 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 355 12 license license NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 355 13 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 355 14 display display VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 355 15 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 355 16 preprint preprint NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 355 17 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 355 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 355 19 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 356 1 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 356 2 copyright copyright NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 356 3 holder holder NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 356 4 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 356 5 this this DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 356 6 preprint preprint NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 356 7 this this DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 356 8 version version NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 356 9 posted post VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 356 10 November November NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 356 11 4 4 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 356 12 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 356 13 2020 2020 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 356 14 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 356 15 ; ; : cord-328957-mzi8504f 356 16 Table table NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 356 17 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 357 1 1 1 LS cord-328957-mzi8504f 357 2 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 358 1 Children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 358 2 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 358 3 adult adult NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 358 4 graphs graph NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 358 5 are be VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 358 6 presented present VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 358 7 with with IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 358 8 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 358 9 dotted dotted JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 358 10 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 358 11 solid solid JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 358 12 lines line NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 358 13 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 358 14 respectively respectively RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 358 15 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 359 1 Susceptible susceptible JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 359 2 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 359 3 infected infected JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 359 4 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 359 5 recovered recover VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 359 6 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 359 7 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 359 8 dead dead JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 359 9 are be VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 359 10 shown show VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 359 11 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 359 12 green green JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 359 13 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 359 14 red red JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 359 15 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 359 16 blue blue JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 359 17 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 359 18 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 359 19 black black JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 359 20 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 359 21 respectively respectively RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 359 22 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 359 23 _SP cord-328957-mzi8504f 360 1 A a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 360 2 maximum maximum NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 360 3 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 360 4 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 360 5 percent percent NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 360 6 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 360 7 infected infected JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 360 8 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 360 9 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 360 10 adults adult NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 360 11 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 360 12 38.5 38.5 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 360 13 % % NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 360 14 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 360 15 100 100 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 360 16 % % NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 360 17 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 360 18 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 360 19 reached reach VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 360 20 355 355 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 360 21 on on IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 360 22 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 360 23 9 9 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 360 24 th th XX cord-328957-mzi8504f 360 25 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 360 26 12 12 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 360 27 th th XX cord-328957-mzi8504f 360 28 day day NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 360 29 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 360 30 as as IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 360 31 shown show VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 360 32 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 360 33 Fig Fig NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 360 34 6 6 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 360 35 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 361 1 In in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 361 2 addition addition NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 361 3 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 361 4 all all DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 361 5 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 361 6 were be VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 361 7 infected infect VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 361 8 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 361 9 356 356 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 361 10 recovered recover VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 361 11 after after IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 361 12 12 12 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 361 13 days day NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 361 14 while while IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 361 15 all all DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 361 16 adults adult NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 361 17 recovered recover VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 361 18 after after IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 361 19 28 28 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 361 20 days day NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 361 21 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 362 1 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 362 2 simulation simulation NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 362 3 shows show VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 362 4 357 357 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 362 5 similar similar JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 362 6 results result NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 362 7 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 362 8 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 362 9 results result NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 362 10 derived derive VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 362 11 by by IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 362 12 solving solve VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 362 13 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 362 14 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 362 15 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 362 16 Eqs Eqs NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 362 17 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 362 18 9 9 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 362 19 - - SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 362 20 10 10 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 362 21 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 362 22 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 362 23 as as IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 362 24 presented present VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 362 25 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 362 26 358 358 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 362 27 Fig Fig NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 362 28 3 3 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 362 29 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 363 1 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 363 2 main main JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 363 3 difference difference NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 363 4 between between IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 363 5 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 363 6 two two CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 363 7 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 363 8 that that IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 363 9 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 363 10 simulation simulation NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 363 11 predicts predict VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 363 12 4.43 4.43 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 363 13 times time NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 363 14 359 359 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 363 15 shorter short JJR cord-328957-mzi8504f 363 16 duration duration NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 363 17 from from IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 363 18 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 363 19 time time NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 363 20 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 363 21 maximum maximum JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 363 22 infected infected JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 363 23 adults adult NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 363 24 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 363 25 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 363 26 time time NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 363 27 that that WDT cord-328957-mzi8504f 363 28 all all DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 363 29 adults adult NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 363 30 360 360 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 363 31 are be VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 363 32 either either RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 363 33 dead dead JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 363 34 or or CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 363 35 recovered recover VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 363 36 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 363 37 as as IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 363 38 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 363 39 infected infected JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 363 40 adult adult NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 363 41 population population NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 363 42 equals equal VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 363 43 zero zero CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 363 44 on on IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 363 45 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 363 46 82 82 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 363 47 nd nd NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 363 48 361 361 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 363 49 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 363 50 28 28 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 363 51 th th CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 363 52 days day NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 363 53 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 364 1 In in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 364 2 addition addition NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 364 3 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 364 4 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 364 5 maximum maximum NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 364 6 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 364 7 infected infected JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 364 8 adults adult NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 364 9 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 364 10 reached reach VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 364 11 on on IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 364 12 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 364 13 11 11 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 364 14 th th XX cord-328957-mzi8504f 364 15 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 364 16 362 362 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 364 17 12 12 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 364 18 th th CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 364 19 days day NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 364 20 resulting result VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 364 21 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 364 22 71 71 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 364 23 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 364 24 16 16 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 364 25 days day NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 364 26 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 364 27 full full JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 364 28 recovery recovery NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 364 29 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 365 1 One one CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 365 2 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 365 3 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 365 4 major major JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 365 5 hopes hope NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 365 6 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 365 7 politicians politician NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 365 8 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 365 9 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 365 10 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 365 11 NPI NPI NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 365 12 policy policy NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 365 13 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 365 14 which which WDT cord-328957-mzi8504f 365 15 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 365 16 epidemic epidemic NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 365 17 does do VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 365 18 368 368 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 365 19 not not RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 365 20 reach reach VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 365 21 an an DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 365 22 outbreak outbreak NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 365 23 at at IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 365 24 any any DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 365 25 time time NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 365 26 after after IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 365 27 they -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 365 28 initialized initialize VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 365 29 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 365 30 given give VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 365 31 decision decision NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 365 32 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 366 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 366 2 define define VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 366 3 this this DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 366 4 369 369 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 366 5 November November NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 366 6 2 2 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 366 7 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 366 8 2020 2020 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 366 9 17/28 17/28 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 366 10 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 367 1 CC CC NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 367 2 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 367 3 BY BY NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 367 4 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 367 5 NC NC NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 367 6 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 367 7 ND ND NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 367 8 4.0 4.0 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 367 9 International international JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 367 10 license license NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 368 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 368 2 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 368 3 made make VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 368 4 available available JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 368 5 under under IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 368 6 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 369 1 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 369 2 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 369 3 author author NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 369 4 / / SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 369 5 funder funder NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 369 6 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 369 7 who who WP cord-328957-mzi8504f 369 8 has have VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 369 9 granted grant VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 369 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 369 11 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 369 12 license license NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 369 13 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 369 14 display display VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 369 15 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 369 16 preprint preprint NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 369 17 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 369 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 369 19 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 370 1 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 370 2 copyright copyright NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 370 3 holder holder NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 370 4 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 370 5 this this DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 370 6 preprint preprint NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 370 7 this this DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 370 8 version version NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 370 9 posted post VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 370 10 November November NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 370 11 4 4 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 370 12 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 370 13 2020 2020 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 370 14 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 371 1 ; ; : cord-328957-mzi8504f 371 2 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.11.02.20224584 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.11.02.20224584 NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 371 3 doi doi NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 371 4 : : : cord-328957-mzi8504f 372 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 372 2 preprint preprint NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 372 3 condition condition NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 372 4 mathematically mathematically RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 372 5 as as IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 372 6 follows follow VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 372 7 : : : cord-328957-mzi8504f 372 8 370 370 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 372 9 Definition Definition NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 372 10 2 2 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 372 11 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 373 1 For for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 373 2 given give VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 373 3 initial initial JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 373 4 condition condition NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 373 5 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 373 6 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 373 7 's 's POS cord-328957-mzi8504f 373 8 parameter parameter NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 373 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 373 10 P p NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 373 11 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 373 12 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 374 1 A a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 374 2 solution solution NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 374 3 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 374 4 371 371 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 374 5 Eq eq NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 374 6 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 374 7 9 9 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 374 8 - - SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 374 9 10 10 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 374 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 374 11 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 374 12 defined define VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 374 13 as as IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 374 14 outbreak outbreak NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 374 15 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 374 16 if if IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 374 17 ∃t ∃t NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 374 18 ∈ ∈ NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 374 19 N n NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 374 20 : : : cord-328957-mzi8504f 374 21 R r NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 374 22 0 0 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 375 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 375 2 t t NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 375 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 375 4 > > XX cord-328957-mzi8504f 375 5 1 1 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 375 6 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 376 1 372 372 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 376 2 We -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 376 3 will will MD cord-328957-mzi8504f 376 4 examine examine VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 376 5 two two CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 376 6 policies policy NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 376 7 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 376 8 based base VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 376 9 on on IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 376 10 this this DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 376 11 condition condition NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 376 12 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 376 13 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 376 14 determine determine VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 376 15 if if IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 376 16 each each DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 376 17 one one NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 376 18 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 376 19 373 373 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 376 20 possible possible JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 376 21 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 376 22 fulfill fulfill VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 376 23 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 376 24 condition condition NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 376 25 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 377 1 If if IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 377 2 so so RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 377 3 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 377 4 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 377 5 optimal optimal JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 377 6 NPI npi NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 377 7 policy policy NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 377 8 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 377 9 based base VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 377 10 on on IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 377 11 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 377 12 parameter-374 parameter-374 NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 377 13 space space NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 377 14 criteria criterion NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 377 15 : : : cord-328957-mzi8504f 377 16 375 375 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 377 17 1 1 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 377 18 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 378 1 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 378 2 influence influence NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 378 3 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 378 4 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 378 5 duration duration NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 378 6 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 378 7 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 378 8 work work NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 378 9 / / SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 378 10 school school NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 378 11 day day NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 378 12 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 379 1 376 376 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 379 2 2 2 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 379 3 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 380 1 Lockdown lockdown NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 380 2 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 380 3 homes home NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 380 4 with with IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 380 5 partial partial JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 380 6 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 380 7 full full JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 380 8 separation separation NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 380 9 between between IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 380 10 individuals individual NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 380 11 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 381 1 Duration duration NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 381 2 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 381 3 working work VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 381 4 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 381 5 schooling schooling NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 381 6 day day NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 381 7 378 378 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 382 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 382 2 will will MD cord-328957-mzi8504f 382 3 assume assume VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 382 4 that that IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 382 5 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 382 6 meet meet VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 382 7 only only JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 382 8 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 382 9 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 382 10 school school NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 382 11 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 382 12 adults adult NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 382 13 meet meet VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 382 14 only only RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 382 15 adults adult NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 382 16 at at IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 382 17 379 379 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 382 18 work work NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 382 19 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 382 20 at at IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 382 21 home home NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 382 22 adults adult NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 382 23 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 382 24 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 382 25 meet meet VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 382 26 each each DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 382 27 other other JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 382 28 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 383 1 This this DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 383 2 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 383 3 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 383 4 good good JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 383 5 approximation approximation NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 383 6 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 383 7 380 380 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 383 8 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 383 9 real real JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 383 10 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 383 11 as as IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 383 12 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 383 13 relatively relatively RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 383 14 small small JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 383 15 percent percent NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 383 16 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 383 17 adults adult NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 383 18 work work VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 383 19 with with IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 383 20 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 383 21 during during IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 383 22 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 383 23 381 381 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 383 24 day day NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 383 25 which which WDT cord-328957-mzi8504f 383 26 keeps keep VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 383 27 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 383 28 interactions interaction NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 383 29 between between IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 383 30 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 383 31 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 383 32 adults adult NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 383 33 at at IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 383 34 this this DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 383 35 time time NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 383 36 relatively relatively RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 383 37 small small JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 383 38 382 382 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 383 39 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 383 40 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 383 41 extent extent NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 383 42 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 383 43 interaction interaction NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 383 44 when when WRB cord-328957-mzi8504f 383 45 both both DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 383 46 adults adult NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 383 47 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 383 48 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 383 49 are be VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 383 50 at at IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 383 51 home home NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 383 52 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 383 53 therefore therefore RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 383 54 383 383 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 383 55 can can MD cord-328957-mzi8504f 383 56 be be VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 383 57 neglected neglect VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 383 58 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 384 1 Based base VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 384 2 on on IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 384 3 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 384 4 proposed propose VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 384 5 spatial spatial JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 384 6 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 384 7 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 384 8 we -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 384 9 change change VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 384 10 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 384 11 number number NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 384 12 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 384 13 hours hour NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 384 14 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 384 15 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 384 16 385 385 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 384 17 adults adult NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 384 18 spend spend VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 384 19 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 384 20 school school NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 384 21 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 384 22 work work VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 384 23 each each DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 384 24 day day NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 384 25 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 384 26 respectively respectively RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 384 27 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 385 1 Fig fig NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 385 2 7a 7a NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 385 3 shows show VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 385 4 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 385 5 average average JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 385 6 R r NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 385 7 0 0 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 385 8 as as IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 385 9 386 386 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 385 10 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 385 11 function function NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 385 12 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 385 13 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 385 14 duration duration NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 385 15 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 385 16 hours hour NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 385 17 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 385 18 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 385 19 working work VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 385 20 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 385 21 d d NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 385 22 W W NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 385 23 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 385 24 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 385 25 schooling schooling NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 385 26 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 385 27 d d NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 385 28 S S NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 385 29 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 385 30 day day NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 385 31 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 386 1 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 386 2 387 387 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 386 3 dots dot NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 386 4 are be VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 386 5 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 386 6 calculated calculate VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 386 7 values value NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 386 8 from from IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 386 9 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 386 10 simulator simulator NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 386 11 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 386 12 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 386 13 surface surface NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 386 14 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 386 15 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 386 16 fitting fitting JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 386 17 function function NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 386 18 388 388 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 386 19 R r NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 386 20 0 0 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 386 21 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 386 22 d d NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 386 23 W W NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 386 24 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 386 25 d d NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 386 26 S S NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 386 27 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 386 28 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 387 1 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 387 2 fitting fitting JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 387 3 function function NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 387 4 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 387 5 calculated calculate VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 387 6 using use VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 387 7 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 387 8 least least JJS cord-328957-mzi8504f 387 9 mean mean VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 387 10 square square JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 387 11 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 387 12 LMS LMS NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 387 13 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 387 14 389 389 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 387 15 method method NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 387 16 [ [ -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 387 17 33 33 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 387 18 ] ] -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 387 19 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 388 1 In in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 388 2 order order NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 388 3 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 388 4 use use VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 388 5 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 388 6 LMS LMS NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 388 7 method method NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 388 8 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 388 9 one one PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 388 10 needs need VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 388 11 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 388 12 define define VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 388 13 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 388 14 family family NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 388 15 function function VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 388 16 390 390 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 388 17 approximating approximate VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 388 18 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 388 19 function function NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 388 20 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 389 1 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 389 2 family family NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 389 3 function function NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 389 4 391 391 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 389 5 f f NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 389 6 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 389 7 a a NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 389 8 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 389 9 c c NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 389 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 389 11 = = NFP cord-328957-mzi8504f 390 1 p p NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 390 2 1 1 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 390 3 + + CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 390 4 p p NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 390 5 2 2 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 391 1 a a LS cord-328957-mzi8504f 391 2 + + NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 392 1 p p NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 392 2 3 3 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 392 3 c c NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 392 4 + + CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 393 1 p p NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 393 2 4 4 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 393 3 ac ac NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 393 4 + + CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 394 1 p p NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 394 2 5 5 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 394 3 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 394 4 2 2 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 395 1 + + CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 395 2 p p NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 395 3 6 6 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 395 4 c c NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 395 5 2 2 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 395 6 has have VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 395 7 been be VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 395 8 chosen choose VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 395 9 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 395 10 balance balance VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 395 11 between between IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 395 12 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 395 13 accuracy accuracy NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 395 14 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 395 15 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 395 16 sampled sample VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 395 17 data datum NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 395 18 on on IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 395 19 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 395 20 one one CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 395 21 hand hand NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 395 22 392 392 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 395 23 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 395 24 simplicity simplicity NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 395 25 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 395 26 usage usage NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 395 27 on on IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 395 28 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 395 29 other other JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 395 30 [ [ -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 395 31 34 34 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 395 32 ] ] -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 395 33 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 395 34 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 395 35 was be VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 395 36 obtained obtain VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 395 37 with with IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 395 38 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 395 39 coefficient coefficient NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 395 40 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 395 41 determination determination NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 395 42 _SP cord-328957-mzi8504f 395 43 obtained obtain VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 395 44 with with IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 395 45 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 395 46 coefficient coefficient NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 395 47 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 395 48 determination determination NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 395 49 R r NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 395 50 2 2 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 395 51 = = SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 395 52 0.748 0.748 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 395 53 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 396 1 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 396 2 duration duration NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 396 3 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 396 4 either either DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 396 5 working work VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 396 6 or or CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 396 7 schooling schooling NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 396 8 day day NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 396 9 has have VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 396 10 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 396 11 local local JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 396 12 minimum minimum NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 396 13 at at IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 396 14 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 396 15 d d NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 396 16 W W NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 396 17 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 396 18 d d NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 396 19 S S NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 396 20 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 396 21 = = SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 396 22 399 399 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 396 23 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 396 24 18 18 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 396 25 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 396 26 14 14 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 396 27 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 396 28 with with IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 396 29 R r NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 396 30 0 0 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 396 31 = = SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 396 32 0.808 0.808 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 396 33 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 396 34 as as IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 396 35 shown show VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 396 36 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 396 37 Fig Fig NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 396 38 7a 7a NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 396 39 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 397 1 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 397 2 optimal optimal JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 397 3 point point NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 397 4 from from IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 397 5 Eq Eq NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 397 6 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 397 7 17 17 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 397 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 397 9 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 397 10 400 400 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 398 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 398 2 d d NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 398 3 W W NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 398 4 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 398 5 d d NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 398 6 S s NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 398 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 398 8 = = NFP cord-328957-mzi8504f 398 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 398 10 9 9 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 398 11 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 398 12 17.5 17.5 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 398 13 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 398 14 with with IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 398 15 R r NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 398 16 0 0 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 398 17 = = SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 398 18 0.967 0.967 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 398 19 obtained obtain VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 398 20 by by IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 398 21 setting set VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 398 22 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 398 23 gradient gradient NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 398 24 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 398 25 R r NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 398 26 0 0 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 399 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 399 2 d d NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 399 3 W W NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 399 4 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 399 5 d d NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 399 6 S S NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 399 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 399 8 401 401 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 399 9 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 399 10 zero zero CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 399 11 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 400 1 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 400 2 inconsistency inconsistency NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 400 3 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 400 4 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 400 5 values value NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 400 6 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 400 7 resulted result VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 400 8 by by IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 400 9 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 400 10 error error NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 400 11 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 400 12 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 400 13 fitting fitting JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 400 14 function function NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 400 15 402 402 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 400 16 but but CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 400 17 both both DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 400 18 show show VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 400 19 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 400 20 same same JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 400 21 behavior behavior NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 400 22 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 400 23 which which WDT cord-328957-mzi8504f 400 24 longer long RBR cord-328957-mzi8504f 400 25 working work VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 400 26 hours hour NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 400 27 reduce reduce VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 400 28 significantly significantly RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 400 29 403 403 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 400 30 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 400 31 infection infection NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 400 32 rate rate NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 400 33 but but CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 401 1 too too RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 401 2 many many JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 401 3 hours hour NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 401 4 increase increase VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 401 5 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 401 6 infection infection NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 401 7 rate rate NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 401 8 back back RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 401 9 as as IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 401 10 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 401 11 lack lack NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 401 12 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 401 13 404 404 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 401 14 circulation circulation NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 401 15 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 401 16 contagious contagious JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 401 17 adults adult NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 401 18 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 401 19 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 401 20 during during IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 401 21 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 401 22 day day NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 401 23 helps help VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 401 24 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 401 25 reduce reduce VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 401 26 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 401 27 infection infection NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 401 28 405 405 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 401 29 rate rate NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 401 30 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 402 1 Furthermore furthermore RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 402 2 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 402 3 Fig Fig NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 402 4 7b 7b NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 402 5 presents present VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 402 6 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 402 7 binary binary JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 402 8 classification classification NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 402 9 where where WRB cord-328957-mzi8504f 402 10 red red JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 402 11 cells cell NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 402 12 are be VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 402 13 cases case NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 402 14 406 406 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 402 15 with with IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 402 16 an an DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 402 17 outbreak outbreak NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 402 18 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 402 19 green green JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 402 20 cells cell NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 402 21 are be VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 402 22 cases case NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 402 23 without without IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 402 24 outbreak outbreak NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 402 25 during during IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 402 26 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 402 27 simulation simulation NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 402 28 as as IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 402 29 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 402 30 407 407 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 402 31 function function NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 402 32 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 402 33 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 402 34 working work VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 402 35 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 402 36 d d NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 402 37 W W NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 402 38 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 402 39 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 402 40 schooling schooling NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 402 41 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 402 42 d d NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 402 43 S S NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 402 44 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 402 45 duration duration NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 402 46 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 402 47 hours hour NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 402 48 each each DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 402 49 day day NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 402 50 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 403 1 November November NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 403 2 2 2 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 403 3 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 403 4 2020 2020 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 403 5 18/28 18/28 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 403 6 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 404 1 CC CC NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 404 2 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 404 3 BY BY NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 404 4 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 404 5 NC NC NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 404 6 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 404 7 ND ND NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 404 8 4.0 4.0 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 404 9 International international JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 404 10 license license NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 404 11 It -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 404 12 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 404 13 made make VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 404 14 available available JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 404 15 under under IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 404 16 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 405 1 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 405 2 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 405 3 author author NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 405 4 / / SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 405 5 funder funder NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 405 6 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 405 7 who who WP cord-328957-mzi8504f 405 8 has have VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 405 9 granted grant VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 405 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 405 11 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 405 12 license license NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 405 13 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 405 14 display display VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 405 15 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 405 16 preprint preprint NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 405 17 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 405 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 405 19 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 406 1 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 406 2 copyright copyright NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 406 3 holder holder NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 406 4 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 406 5 this this DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 406 6 preprint preprint NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 406 7 this this DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 406 8 version version NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 406 9 posted post VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 406 10 November November NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 406 11 4 4 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 406 12 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 406 13 2020 2020 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 406 14 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 407 1 ; ; : cord-328957-mzi8504f 407 2 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.11.02.20224584 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.11.02.20224584 NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 407 3 doi doi NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 407 4 : : : cord-328957-mzi8504f 408 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 408 2 preprint preprint NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 408 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 408 4 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 408 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 408 6 Average average JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 408 7 R0 R0 NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 408 8 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 409 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 409 2 18 18 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 409 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 409 4 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 410 1 There there EX cord-328957-mzi8504f 410 2 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 410 3 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 410 4 sharp sharp JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 410 5 decline decline NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 410 6 between between IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 410 7 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 410 8 shorter short JJR cord-328957-mzi8504f 410 9 412 412 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 410 10 working working NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 410 11 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 410 12 schooling school VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 410 13 duration duration NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 410 14 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 410 15 10 10 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 410 16 hours hour NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 410 17 or or CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 410 18 less less JJR cord-328957-mzi8504f 410 19 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 410 20 longer long RBR cord-328957-mzi8504f 410 21 than than IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 410 22 that that DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 410 23 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 411 1 This this DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 411 2 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 411 3 associated associate VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 411 4 413 413 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 411 5 with with IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 411 6 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 411 7 fact fact NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 411 8 that that IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 411 9 with with IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 411 10 more more JJR cord-328957-mzi8504f 411 11 than than IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 411 12 12 12 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 411 13 hours hour NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 411 14 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 411 15 half half JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 411 16 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 411 17 day day NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 411 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 411 19 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 411 20 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 411 21 that that WDT cord-328957-mzi8504f 411 22 have have VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 411 23 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 411 24 higher high JJR cord-328957-mzi8504f 411 25 414 414 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 411 26 incidence incidence NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 411 27 are be VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 411 28 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 411 29 ones one NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 411 30 with with IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 411 31 β β NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 411 32 ca ca NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 411 33 = = . cord-328957-mzi8504f 412 1 β β NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 412 2 ac ac NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 412 3 = = NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 412 4 0 0 NFP cord-328957-mzi8504f 412 5 which which WDT cord-328957-mzi8504f 412 6 reduces reduce VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 412 7 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 412 8 number number NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 412 9 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 412 10 infected infect VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 412 11 415 415 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 412 12 individuals individual NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 412 13 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 412 14 total total NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 412 15 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 412 16 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 413 1 CC CC NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 413 2 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 413 3 BY BY NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 413 4 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 413 5 NC NC NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 413 6 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 413 7 ND ND NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 413 8 4.0 4.0 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 413 9 International international JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 413 10 license license NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 414 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 414 2 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 414 3 made make VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 414 4 available available JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 414 5 under under IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 414 6 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 415 1 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 415 2 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 415 3 author author NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 415 4 / / SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 415 5 funder funder NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 415 6 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 415 7 who who WP cord-328957-mzi8504f 415 8 has have VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 415 9 granted grant VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 415 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 415 11 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 415 12 license license NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 415 13 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 415 14 display display VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 415 15 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 415 16 preprint preprint NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 415 17 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 415 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 415 19 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 416 1 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 416 2 copyright copyright NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 416 3 holder holder NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 416 4 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 416 5 this this DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 416 6 preprint preprint NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 416 7 this this DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 416 8 version version NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 416 9 posted post VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 416 10 November November NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 416 11 4 4 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 416 12 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 416 13 2020 2020 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 416 14 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 417 1 ; ; : cord-328957-mzi8504f 417 2 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.11.02.20224584 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.11.02.20224584 NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 417 3 doi doi NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 417 4 : : : cord-328957-mzi8504f 418 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 418 2 preprint preprint NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 418 3 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 418 4 mental mental JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 418 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 418 6 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 418 7 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 418 8 population population NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 418 9 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 419 1 Therefore therefore RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 419 2 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 419 3 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 419 4 optimization optimization NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 419 5 task task NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 419 6 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 419 7 finding find VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 419 8 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 419 9 minimal minimal JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 419 10 423 423 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 419 11 portion portion NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 419 12 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 419 13 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 419 14 population population NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 419 15 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 419 16 be be VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 419 17 locked lock VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 419 18 down down RP cord-328957-mzi8504f 419 19 such such JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 419 20 that that IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 419 21 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 419 22 epidemic epidemic NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 419 23 will will MD cord-328957-mzi8504f 419 24 be be VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 419 25 constrained constrain VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 419 26 424 424 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 419 27 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 419 28 important important JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 419 29 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 420 1 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 420 2 optimization optimization NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 420 3 problem problem NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 420 4 can can MD cord-328957-mzi8504f 420 5 be be VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 420 6 written write VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 420 7 formally formally RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 420 8 as as IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 420 9 426 426 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 420 10 min min NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 420 11 La La NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 420 12 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 420 13 Lc Lc NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 421 1 where where WRB cord-328957-mzi8504f 421 2 L L NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 421 3 a a NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 421 4 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 421 5 L L NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 421 6 c c NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 421 7 are be VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 421 8 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 421 9 portion portion NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 421 10 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 421 11 adults adult NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 421 12 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 421 13 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 421 14 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 421 15 lockdown lockdown NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 421 16 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 422 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 422 2 ran run VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 422 3 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 422 4 spatial spatial JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 422 5 427 427 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 422 6 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 422 7 multiple multiple JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 422 8 times time NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 422 9 where where WRB cord-328957-mzi8504f 422 10 each each DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 422 11 time time NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 422 12 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 422 13 combination combination NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 422 14 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 422 15 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 422 16 L L NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 422 17 a a NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 422 18 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 422 19 L L NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 422 20 c c NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 422 21 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 422 22 = = NFP cord-328957-mzi8504f 422 23 { { -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 422 24 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 422 25 0.1i 0.1i CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 422 26 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 422 27 0.1i 0.1i LS cord-328957-mzi8504f 422 28 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 422 29 } } -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 423 1 10 10 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 423 2 i=0 i=0 NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 423 3 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 423 4 428 428 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 423 5 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 423 6 population population NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 423 7 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 423 8 assumed assume VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 423 9 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 423 10 be be VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 423 11 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 423 12 lockdown lockdown NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 423 13 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 424 1 Fig fig NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 424 2 8a 8a NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 424 3 shows show VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 424 4 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 424 5 results result NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 424 6 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 424 7 this this DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 424 8 calculation calculation NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 424 9 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 425 1 429 429 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 426 1 Each each DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 426 2 dot dot NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 426 3 represents represent VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 426 4 R r NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 426 5 0 0 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 426 6 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 426 7 each each DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 426 8 case case NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 426 9 L L NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 426 10 a a NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 426 11 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 426 12 L L NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 426 13 c c NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 426 14 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 427 1 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 427 2 black black JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 427 3 grid grid NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 427 4 shows show VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 427 5 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 427 6 threshold threshold NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 427 7 R r NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 427 8 0 0 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 427 9 = = SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 427 10 1 1 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 427 11 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 427 12 430 430 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 428 1 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 428 2 behavior behavior NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 428 3 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 428 4 R r NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 428 5 0 0 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 428 6 as as IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 428 7 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 428 8 function function NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 428 9 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 428 10 L L NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 428 11 a a NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 428 12 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 428 13 L L NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 428 14 c c NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 428 15 has have VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 428 16 been be VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 428 17 retrieved retrieve VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 428 18 using use VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 428 19 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 428 20 LMS LMS NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 428 21 method method NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 428 22 431 431 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 428 23 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 428 24 takes take VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 428 25 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 428 26 form form NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 428 27 obtained obtain VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 428 28 with with IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 428 29 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 428 30 coefficient coefficient NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 428 31 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 428 32 determination determination NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 428 33 R r NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 428 34 2 2 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 428 35 = = SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 428 36 0.971 0.971 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 428 37 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 429 1 Therefore therefore RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 429 2 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 429 3 it -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 429 4 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 429 5 safe safe JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 429 6 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 429 7 433 433 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 429 8 claim claim NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 429 9 that that DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 429 10 function function NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 429 11 R r NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 429 12 0 0 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 429 13 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 429 14 a a NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 429 15 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 429 16 c c NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 429 17 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 430 1 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 430 2 well well RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 430 3 fitting fit VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 430 4 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 430 5 data datum NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 430 6 despite despite IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 430 7 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 430 8 stochastic stochastic JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 430 9 noise noise NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 430 10 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 430 11 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 430 12 434 434 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 430 13 simulation simulation NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 430 14 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 430 15 presents present VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 430 16 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 430 17 fair fair JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 430 18 approximation approximation NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 430 19 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 430 20 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 430 21 R r NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 430 22 0 0 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 430 23 behavior behavior NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 430 24 as as IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 430 25 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 430 26 function function NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 430 27 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 430 28 L L NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 430 29 a a NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 430 30 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 430 31 L L NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 430 32 c c NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 430 33 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 431 1 435 435 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 432 1 Using use VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 432 2 Eq Eq NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 432 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 432 4 19 19 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 432 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 433 1 it -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 433 2 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 433 3 possible possible JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 433 4 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 433 5 find find VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 433 6 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 433 7 constraints constraint NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 433 8 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 433 9 L L NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 433 10 a a NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 433 11 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 433 12 L L NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 433 13 c c NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 433 14 such such JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 433 15 that that IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 433 16 R r NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 433 17 0 0 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 433 18 ≤ ≤ NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 433 19 1 1 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 433 20 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 433 21 by by IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 433 22 solving solve VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 433 23 436 436 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 433 24 R r NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 433 25 0 0 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 434 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 434 2 L L NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 434 3 a a NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 434 4 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 434 5 L L NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 434 6 c c NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 434 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 434 8 ≤ ≤ NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 434 9 1 1 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 434 10 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 435 1 Closing close VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 435 2 only only RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 435 3 schools school NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 435 4 without without IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 435 5 any any DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 435 6 reduction reduction NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 435 7 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 435 8 adults adult NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 435 9 going go VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 435 10 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 435 11 work work VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 435 12 does do VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 435 13 not not RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 435 14 prevent prevent VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 435 15 438 438 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 435 16 an an DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 435 17 epidemic epidemic NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 435 18 outbreak outbreak NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 435 19 while while IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 435 20 locking lock VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 435 21 down down RP cord-328957-mzi8504f 435 22 half half NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 435 23 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 435 24 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 435 25 adult adult NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 435 26 population population NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 435 27 will will MD cord-328957-mzi8504f 435 28 prevent prevent VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 435 29 an an DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 435 30 439 439 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 435 31 outbreak outbreak NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 435 32 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 436 1 Lockdown lockdown NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 436 2 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 436 3 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 436 4 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 436 5 L l NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 436 6 c c NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 436 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 436 8 have have VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 436 9 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 436 10 minor minor JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 436 11 effect effect NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 436 12 relatively relatively RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 436 13 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 436 14 lockdown lockdown NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 436 15 adults adult NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 436 16 440 440 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 437 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 437 2 L L NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 437 3 a a NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 437 4 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 437 5 as as IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 437 6 shown show VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 437 7 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 437 8 both both DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 437 9 Eq Eq NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 437 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 437 11 19 19 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 437 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 437 13 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 437 14 _SP cord-328957-mzi8504f 437 15 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 437 16 obtained obtain VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 437 17 with with IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 437 18 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 437 19 coefficient coefficient NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 437 20 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 437 21 determination determination NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 437 22 R r NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 437 23 2 2 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 437 24 = = SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 437 25 0.840 0.840 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 437 26 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 438 1 In in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 438 2 addition addition NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 438 3 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 438 4 we -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 438 5 repeat repeat VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 438 6 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 438 7 analysis analysis NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 438 8 by by IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 438 9 numerically numerically RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 438 10 solving solve VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 438 11 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 438 12 system system NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 438 13 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 438 14 Eq Eq NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 438 15 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 438 16 9 9 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 438 17 - - SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 438 18 10 10 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 438 19 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 438 20 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 438 21 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 439 1 445 445 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 440 1 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 440 2 lockdown lockdown NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 440 3 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 440 4 reflected reflect VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 440 5 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 440 6 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 440 7 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 440 8 as as IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 440 9 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 440 10 infection infection NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 440 11 rate rate NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 440 12 between between IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 440 13 every every DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 440 14 two two CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 440 15 individuals individual NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 440 16 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 441 1 446 446 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 441 2 L l NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 441 3 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 441 4 affects affect VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 441 5 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 441 6 interactions interaction NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 441 7 between between IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 441 8 adults adult NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 441 9 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 441 10 either either CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 441 11 other other JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 441 12 adults adult NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 441 13 or or CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 442 1 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 442 2 β β NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 442 3 aa aa NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 442 4 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 442 5 β β NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 442 6 ac ac IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 442 7 447 447 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 442 8 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 442 9 L L NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 442 10 c c NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 442 11 affects affect VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 442 12 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 442 13 interactions interaction NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 442 14 between between IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 442 15 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 442 16 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 442 17 either either CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 442 18 other other JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 442 19 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 442 20 or or CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 442 21 adults adult NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 442 22 448 448 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 442 23 β β NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 442 24 cc cc NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 442 25 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 442 26 β β XX cord-328957-mzi8504f 442 27 ca ca NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 442 28 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 443 1 Mark Mark NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 443 2 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 443 3 original original JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 443 4 values value NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 443 5 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 443 6 β β NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 443 7 aa aa NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 443 8 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 443 9 β β NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 443 10 ac ac NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 443 11 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 443 12 β β NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 443 13 ca ca NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 443 14 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 443 15 β β NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 443 16 cc cc NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 443 17 from from IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 443 18 Table Table NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 443 19 1 1 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 443 20 as as IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 443 21 β β NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 443 22 * * NFP cord-328957-mzi8504f 443 23 aa aa NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 443 24 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 443 25 β β NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 443 26 * * NFP cord-328957-mzi8504f 443 27 ac ac NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 443 28 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 444 1 β β NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 444 2 * * NFP cord-328957-mzi8504f 444 3 ca ca NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 445 1 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 445 2 β β NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 445 3 * * NFP cord-328957-mzi8504f 445 4 cc cc NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 445 5 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 445 6 449 449 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 445 7 Each each DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 445 8 time time NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 445 9 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 445 10 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 445 11 system system NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 445 12 solved solve VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 445 13 where where WRB cord-328957-mzi8504f 445 14 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 445 15 L L NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 445 16 a a NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 445 17 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 445 18 L L NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 445 19 c c NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 445 20 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 445 21 = = NFP cord-328957-mzi8504f 445 22 { { -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 445 23 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 445 24 0.1i 0.1i CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 445 25 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 445 26 0.1i 0.1i LS cord-328957-mzi8504f 445 27 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 445 28 } } -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 445 29 10 10 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 445 30 i=0 i=0 NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 445 31 such such JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 445 32 that that IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 445 33 β β NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 445 34 aa aa NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 445 35 = = NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 446 1 β β NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 446 2 * * NFP cord-328957-mzi8504f 446 3 aa aa NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 446 4 · · NFP cord-328957-mzi8504f 446 5 L L NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 446 6 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 447 1 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 447 2 450 450 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 447 3 β β NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 447 4 ac ac NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 447 5 = = NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 447 6 β β NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 447 7 * * NFP cord-328957-mzi8504f 447 8 ac ac NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 447 9 · · NFP cord-328957-mzi8504f 447 10 L L NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 447 11 a a NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 447 12 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 447 13 β β NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 447 14 ca ca NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 447 15 = = . cord-328957-mzi8504f 448 1 β β NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 449 1 * * NFP cord-328957-mzi8504f 449 2 ca ca MD cord-328957-mzi8504f 449 3 · · NFP cord-328957-mzi8504f 449 4 L L NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 449 5 c c NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 449 6 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 449 7 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 449 8 β β NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 449 9 cc cc NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 449 10 = = SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 449 11 β β NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 449 12 * * NFP cord-328957-mzi8504f 449 13 cc cc NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 449 14 · · NFP cord-328957-mzi8504f 449 15 L l NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 449 16 c c NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 449 17 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 450 1 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 450 2 behavior behavior NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 450 3 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 450 4 R r NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 450 5 0 0 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 450 6 as as IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 450 7 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 450 8 function function NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 450 9 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 450 10 L L NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 450 11 a a NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 450 12 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 450 13 L L NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 450 14 c c NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 450 15 has have VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 450 16 been be VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 450 17 derived derive VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 450 18 using use VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 450 19 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 450 20 LMS LMS NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 450 21 method method NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 450 22 461 461 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 450 23 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 450 24 takes take VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 450 25 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 450 26 form form NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 450 27 November November NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 450 28 2 2 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 450 29 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 450 30 2020 2020 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 450 31 20/28 20/28 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 450 32 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 451 1 CC CC NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 451 2 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 451 3 BY BY NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 451 4 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 451 5 NC NC NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 451 6 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 451 7 ND ND NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 451 8 4.0 4.0 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 451 9 International international JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 451 10 license license NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 452 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 452 2 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 452 3 made make VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 452 4 available available JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 452 5 under under IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 452 6 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 453 1 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 453 2 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 453 3 author author NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 453 4 / / SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 453 5 funder funder NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 453 6 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 453 7 who who WP cord-328957-mzi8504f 453 8 has have VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 453 9 granted grant VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 453 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 453 11 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 453 12 license license NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 453 13 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 453 14 display display VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 453 15 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 453 16 preprint preprint NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 453 17 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 453 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 453 19 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 454 1 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 454 2 copyright copyright NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 454 3 holder holder NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 454 4 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 454 5 this this DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 454 6 preprint preprint NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 454 7 this this DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 454 8 version version NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 454 9 posted post VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 454 10 November November NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 454 11 4 4 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 454 12 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 454 13 2020 2020 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 454 14 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 455 1 ; ; : cord-328957-mzi8504f 455 2 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.11.02.20224584 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.11.02.20224584 NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 455 3 doi doi NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 455 4 : : : cord-328957-mzi8504f 456 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 456 2 preprint preprint NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 456 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 456 4 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 456 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 456 6 Average average JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 456 7 R0 R0 NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 456 8 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 456 9 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 457 1 CC CC NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 457 2 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 457 3 BY BY NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 457 4 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 457 5 NC NC NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 457 6 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 457 7 ND ND NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 457 8 4.0 4.0 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 457 9 International international JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 457 10 license license NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 458 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 458 2 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 458 3 made make VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 458 4 available available JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 458 5 under under IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 458 6 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 459 1 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 459 2 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 459 3 author author NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 459 4 / / SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 459 5 funder funder NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 459 6 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 459 7 who who WP cord-328957-mzi8504f 459 8 has have VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 459 9 granted grant VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 459 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 459 11 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 459 12 license license NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 459 13 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 459 14 display display VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 459 15 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 459 16 preprint preprint NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 459 17 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 459 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 459 19 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 460 1 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 460 2 copyright copyright NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 460 3 holder holder NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 460 4 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 460 5 this this DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 460 6 preprint preprint NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 460 7 this this DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 460 8 version version NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 460 9 posted post VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 460 10 November November NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 460 11 4 4 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 460 12 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 460 13 2020 2020 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 460 14 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 461 1 ; ; : cord-328957-mzi8504f 461 2 From from IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 461 3 [ [ -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 461 4 4 4 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 461 5 ] ] -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 461 6 there there EX cord-328957-mzi8504f 461 7 was be VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 461 8 90232 90232 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 461 9 infected infect VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 461 10 at at IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 461 11 August August NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 461 12 15 15 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 461 13 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 462 1 Given give VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 462 2 that that IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 462 3 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 462 4 average average JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 462 5 recover recover VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 462 6 rate rate NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 462 7 482 482 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 462 8 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 462 9 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 462 10 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 462 11 2 2 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 462 12 days day NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 462 13 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 462 14 adults adult NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 462 15 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 462 16 14 14 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 462 17 days day NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 462 18 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 462 19 see see VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 462 20 Table table NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 462 21 1 1 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 462 22 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 462 23 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 462 24 that that IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 462 25 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 462 26 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 462 27 28 28 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 462 28 % % NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 462 29 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 462 30 483 483 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 462 31 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 462 32 population population NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 462 33 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 462 34 we -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 462 35 obtain obtain VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 462 36 that that IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 462 37 there there EX cord-328957-mzi8504f 462 38 was be VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 462 39 approximately approximately RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 462 40 18899 18899 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 462 41 infected infected JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 462 42 adults adult NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 462 43 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 462 44 868 868 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 462 45 484 484 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 462 46 infected infect VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 462 47 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 462 48 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 463 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 463 2 assume assume VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 463 3 that that IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 463 4 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 463 5 amount amount NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 463 6 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 463 7 recovered recover VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 463 8 individuals individual NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 463 9 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 463 10 heterogeneous heterogeneous JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 463 11 485 485 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 463 12 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 463 13 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 463 14 population population NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 463 15 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 463 16 that that IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 463 17 only only JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 463 18 adults adult NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 463 19 die die VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 463 20 from from IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 463 21 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 463 22 epidemic epidemic NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 463 23 until until IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 463 24 this this DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 463 25 point point NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 463 26 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 464 1 Eq Eq NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 464 2 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 464 3 23 23 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 464 4 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 464 5 486 486 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 464 6 shows show VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 464 7 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 464 8 initial initial JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 464 9 conditions condition NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 464 10 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 464 11 August August NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 464 12 15 15 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 464 13 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 464 14 t t NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 464 15 0 0 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 464 16 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 464 17 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 464 18 Israel Israel NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 464 19 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 465 1 Considering consider VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 465 2 that that IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 465 3 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 465 4 longer long JJR cord-328957-mzi8504f 465 5 school school NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 465 6 day day NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 465 7 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 465 8 reducing reduce VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 465 9 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 465 10 infection infection NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 465 11 rate rate NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 465 12 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 465 13 Fig Fig NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 465 14 7a 7a NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 465 15 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 465 16 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 465 17 we -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 465 18 solve solve VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 465 19 497 497 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 465 20 numerically numerically RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 465 21 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 465 22 hybrid hybrid JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 465 23 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 465 24 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 465 25 calculate calculate VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 465 26 R r NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 465 27 0 0 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 465 28 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 465 29 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 465 30 case case NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 465 31 when when WRB cord-328957-mzi8504f 465 32 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 465 33 schools school NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 465 34 are be VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 465 35 open open JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 465 36 498 498 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 465 37 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 465 38 from from IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 465 39 September September NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 465 40 1 1 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 465 41 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 465 42 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 466 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 466 2 assume assume VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 466 3 that that IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 466 4 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 466 5 go go VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 466 6 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 466 7 school school NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 466 8 every every DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 466 9 day day NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 466 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 466 11 except except IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 466 12 weekends weekend NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 466 13 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 466 14 499 499 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 466 15 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 466 16 nine nine CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 466 17 hours hour NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 466 18 while while IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 466 19 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 466 20 adults adult NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 466 21 go go VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 466 22 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 466 23 work work VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 466 24 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 466 25 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 466 26 same same JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 466 27 period period NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 466 28 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 467 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 467 2 obtain obtain VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 467 3 that that IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 467 4 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 467 5 500 500 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 467 6 difference difference NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 467 7 average average JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 467 8 R r NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 467 9 0 0 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 467 10 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 467 11 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 467 12 case case NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 467 13 with with IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 467 14 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 467 15 optimal optimal JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 467 16 NPI npi NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 467 17 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 467 18 R r NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 467 19 0 0 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 467 20 = = SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 467 21 1.45 1.45 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 467 22 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 467 23 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 467 24 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 467 25 historical historical JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 467 26 501 501 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 467 27 NPI NPI NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 467 28 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 467 29 R r NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 467 30 0 0 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 467 31 = = SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 467 32 2.28 2.28 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 467 33 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 467 34 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 467 35 ∆R ∆R VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 467 36 0 0 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 467 37 = = SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 467 38 0.83 0.83 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 467 39 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 467 40 see see VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 467 41 Fig Fig NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 467 42 11 11 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 467 43 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 467 44 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 468 1 This this DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 468 2 study study NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 468 3 presents present VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 468 4 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 468 5 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 468 6 showing show VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 468 7 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 468 8 effects effect NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 468 9 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 468 10 population population NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 468 11 age age NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 468 12 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 468 13 time time NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 468 14 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 468 15 day day NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 468 16 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 468 17 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 468 18 504 504 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 468 19 gathering gather VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 468 20 location location NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 468 21 on on IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 468 22 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 468 23 spread spread NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 468 24 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 468 25 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 468 26 epidemic epidemic NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 468 27 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 469 1 Based base VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 469 2 on on IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 469 3 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 469 4 proposed propose VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 469 5 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 469 6 Eqs Eqs NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 469 7 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 469 8 9 9 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 469 9 - - SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 469 10 505 505 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 469 11 10 10 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 469 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 469 13 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 469 14 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 469 15 non non JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 469 16 - - JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 469 17 trivial trivial JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 469 18 equilibria equilibrium NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 469 19 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 469 20 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 469 21 system system NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 469 22 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 469 23 presented present VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 469 24 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 469 25 Table Table NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 469 26 3 3 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 469 27 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 470 1 Based base VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 470 2 on on IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 470 3 Lemma Lemma NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 470 4 1 1 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 470 5 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 470 6 506 506 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 470 7 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 470 8 equilibria equilibrium NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 470 9 do do VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 470 10 not not RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 470 11 take take VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 470 12 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 470 13 form form NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 470 14 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 470 15 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 470 16 asymptotic asymptotic JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 470 17 case case NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 470 18 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 470 19 Eq Eq NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 470 20 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 470 21 11 11 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 470 22 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 470 23 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 470 24 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 470 25 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 470 26 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 470 27 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 470 28 507 507 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 470 29 therefore therefore RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 470 30 are be VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 470 31 not not RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 470 32 stable stable JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 470 33 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 471 1 Although although IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 471 2 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 471 3 proposed propose VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 471 4 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 471 5 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 471 6 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 471 7 simplification simplification NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 471 8 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 471 9 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 471 10 total total JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 471 11 508 508 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 471 12 complexity complexity NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 471 13 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 471 14 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 471 15 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 471 16 epidemic epidemic NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 471 17 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 471 18 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 471 19 asymptotic asymptotic JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 471 20 solution solution NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 471 21 without without IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 471 22 any any DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 471 23 intervention intervention NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 471 24 509 509 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 471 25 will will MD cord-328957-mzi8504f 471 26 result result VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 471 27 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 471 28 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 471 29 high high JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 471 30 percentage percentage NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 471 31 39 39 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 471 32 % % NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 471 33 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 471 34 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 471 35 89 89 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 471 36 % % NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 471 37 adults adult NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 471 38 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 471 39 38.5 38.5 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 471 40 % % NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 471 41 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 471 42 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 471 43 100 100 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 471 44 % % NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 471 45 510 510 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 471 46 adults adult NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 471 47 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 471 48 infected infected JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 471 49 individuals individual NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 471 50 as as IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 471 51 shown show VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 471 52 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 471 53 Figs Figs NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 471 54 3 3 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 471 55 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 471 56 6 6 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 471 57 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 471 58 respectively respectively RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 471 59 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 472 1 In in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 472 2 addition addition NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 472 3 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 472 4 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 472 5 asymptotic asymptotic JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 472 6 solutions solution NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 472 7 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 472 8 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 472 9 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 472 10 are be VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 472 11 insignificant insignificant JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 472 12 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 472 13 themselves -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 472 14 as as IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 472 15 512 512 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 472 16 November November NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 472 17 2 2 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 472 18 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 472 19 2020 2020 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 472 20 24/28 24/28 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 472 21 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 473 1 CC CC NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 473 2 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 473 3 BY BY NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 473 4 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 473 5 NC NC NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 473 6 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 473 7 ND ND NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 473 8 4.0 4.0 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 473 9 International international JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 473 10 license license NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 473 11 It -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 473 12 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 473 13 made make VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 473 14 available available JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 473 15 under under IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 473 16 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 474 1 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 474 2 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 474 3 author author NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 474 4 / / SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 474 5 funder funder NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 474 6 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 474 7 who who WP cord-328957-mzi8504f 474 8 has have VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 474 9 granted grant VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 474 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 474 11 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 474 12 license license NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 474 13 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 474 14 display display VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 474 15 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 474 16 preprint preprint NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 474 17 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 474 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 474 19 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 475 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 475 2 which which WDT cord-328957-mzi8504f 475 3 was be VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 475 4 not not RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 475 5 certified certify VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 475 6 by by IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 475 7 peer peer NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 475 8 review review NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 475 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 476 1 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 476 2 copyright copyright NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 476 3 holder holder NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 476 4 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 476 5 this this DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 476 6 preprint preprint NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 476 7 this this DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 476 8 version version NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 476 9 posted post VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 476 10 November November NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 476 11 4 4 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 476 12 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 476 13 2020 2020 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 476 14 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 477 1 ; ; : cord-328957-mzi8504f 477 2 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.11.02.20224584 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.11.02.20224584 NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 477 3 doi doi NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 477 4 : : : cord-328957-mzi8504f 478 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 478 2 preprint preprint NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 478 3 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 478 4 practice practice NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 479 1 these these DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 479 2 results result NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 479 3 occur occur VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 479 4 after after IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 479 5 A a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 479 6 days day NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 479 7 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 479 8 13 13 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 479 9 years year NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 479 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 479 11 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 480 1 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 480 2 main main JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 480 3 epidemic epidemic NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 480 4 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 480 5 as as IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 480 6 513 513 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 480 7 obtained obtain VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 480 8 from from IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 480 9 both both CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 480 10 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 480 11 SIRD SIRD NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 480 12 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 480 13 Eqs Eqs NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 480 14 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 480 15 9 9 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 480 16 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 480 17 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 480 18 10 10 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 480 19 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 480 20 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 480 21 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 480 22 hybrid hybrid JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 480 23 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 480 24 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 480 25 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 480 26 few few JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 480 27 month month NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 480 28 514 514 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 480 29 long long RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 480 30 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 480 31 as as IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 480 32 shown show VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 480 33 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 480 34 Figs Figs NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 480 35 3 3 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 480 36 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 480 37 6 6 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 480 38 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 481 1 Besides besides RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 481 2 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 481 3 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 481 4 asymptotic asymptotic JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 481 5 solution solution NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 481 6 can can MD cord-328957-mzi8504f 481 7 be be VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 481 8 used use VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 481 9 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 481 10 easily easily RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 481 11 515 515 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 481 12 obtain obtain VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 481 13 D D NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 481 14 a a NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 481 15 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 481 16 D d NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 481 17 c c NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 482 1 as as IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 482 2 they -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 482 3 accumulative accumulative JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 482 4 sums sum NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 482 5 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 482 6 infected infected JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 482 7 infected infected JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 482 8 adults adult NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 482 9 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 482 10 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 482 11 516 516 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 482 12 multiplied multiply VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 482 13 by by IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 482 14 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 482 15 factor factor NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 482 16 ψ ψ NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 482 17 a a NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 482 18 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 482 19 ψ ψ NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 482 20 c c NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 482 21 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 482 22 do do VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 482 23 not not RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 482 24 change change VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 482 25 after after IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 482 26 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 482 27 epidemic epidemic NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 482 28 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 482 29 over over RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 482 30 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 483 1 As as IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 483 2 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 483 3 517 517 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 483 4 result result NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 483 5 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 483 6 α α NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 483 7 = = SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 483 8 2.1 2.1 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 483 9 · · NFP cord-328957-mzi8504f 483 10 10 10 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 483 11 −4 −4 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 483 12 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 483 13 not not RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 483 14 used use VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 483 15 as as IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 483 16 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 483 17 82 82 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 483 18 days day NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 483 19 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 483 20 as as IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 483 21 shown show VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 483 22 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 483 23 Fig Fig NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 483 24 3 3 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 483 25 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 483 26 only only RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 483 27 0.017 0.017 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 483 28 % % NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 483 29 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 483 30 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 483 31 518 518 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 483 32 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 483 33 will will MD cord-328957-mzi8504f 483 34 become become VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 483 35 adults adult NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 483 36 which which WDT cord-328957-mzi8504f 483 37 effectually effectually RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 483 38 has have VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 483 39 only only RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 483 40 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 483 41 minor minor JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 483 42 affect affect NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 483 43 on on IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 483 44 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 483 45 epidemic epidemic NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 483 46 519 519 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 483 47 results result NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 483 48 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 484 1 520 520 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 485 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 485 2 presented present VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 485 3 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 485 4 proposed propose VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 485 5 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 485 6 as as IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 485 7 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 485 8 stochastic stochastic JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 485 9 process process NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 485 10 using use VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 485 11 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 485 12 Markov Markov NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 485 13 chain chain NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 485 14 521 521 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 485 15 modeling modeling NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 485 16 approach approach NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 485 17 as as IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 485 18 shown show VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 485 19 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 485 20 Lemma Lemma NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 485 21 1 1 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 485 22 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 486 1 Using use VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 486 2 this this DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 486 3 representation representation NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 486 4 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 486 5 it -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 486 6 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 486 7 easy easy JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 486 8 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 486 9 find find VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 486 10 522 522 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 486 11 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 486 12 stationary stationary JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 486 13 state state NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 486 14 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 486 15 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 486 16 chain chain NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 487 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 487 2 Eq Eq NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 487 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 487 4 11 11 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 487 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 487 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 487 7 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 487 8 therefore therefore RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 487 9 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 487 10 possible possible JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 487 11 asymptotic asymptotic JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 487 12 forms form NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 487 13 523 523 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 487 14 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 487 15 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 487 16 SIRD SIRD NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 487 17 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 487 18 Eqs Eqs NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 487 19 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 487 20 9 9 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 487 21 - - SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 487 22 10 10 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 487 23 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 487 24 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 488 1 Furthermore furthermore RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 488 2 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 488 3 two two CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 488 4 policies policy NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 488 5 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 488 6 controlling control VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 488 7 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 488 8 epidemic epidemic NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 488 9 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 488 10 preventing prevent VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 488 11 outbreak outbreak NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 488 12 have have VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 488 13 525 525 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 488 14 been be VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 488 15 investigated investigate VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 488 16 using use VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 488 17 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 488 18 hybrid hybrid JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 488 19 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 488 20 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 489 1 First first RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 489 2 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 489 3 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 489 4 duration duration NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 489 5 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 489 6 working work VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 489 7 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 489 8 schooling school VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 489 9 526 526 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 489 10 day day NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 489 11 has have VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 489 12 an an DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 489 13 influence influence NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 489 14 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 489 15 up up IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 489 16 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 489 17 10 10 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 489 18 % % NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 489 19 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 489 20 on on IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 489 21 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 489 22 maximum maximum NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 489 23 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 489 24 infected infected JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 489 25 individuals individual NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 489 26 but but CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 489 27 can can MD cord-328957-mzi8504f 489 28 prevent prevent VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 489 29 527 527 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 489 30 outbreaks outbreak NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 489 31 under under IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 489 32 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 489 33 assumption assumption NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 489 34 that that IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 489 35 during during IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 489 36 this this DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 489 37 time time NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 489 38 adults adult NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 489 39 do do VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 489 40 not not RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 489 41 contact contact VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 489 42 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 489 43 at at IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 489 44 528 528 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 489 45 all all DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 489 46 as as IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 489 47 shown show VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 489 48 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 489 49 Fig Fig NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 489 50 7 7 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 489 51 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 490 1 These these DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 490 2 results result NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 490 3 match match VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 490 4 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 490 5 conclusions conclusion NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 490 6 reported report VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 490 7 by by IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 490 8 Keskinocak Keskinocak NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 490 9 et et NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 490 10 529 529 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 490 11 al al NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 490 12 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 491 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 491 2 2020 2020 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 491 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 491 4 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 491 5 Georgia Georgia NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 491 6 state state NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 491 7 [ [ -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 491 8 35 35 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 491 9 ] ] -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 491 10 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 492 1 In in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 492 2 addition addition NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 492 3 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 492 4 these these DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 492 5 results result NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 492 6 match match VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 492 7 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 492 8 results result NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 492 9 reported report VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 492 10 530 530 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 492 11 by by IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 492 12 Di Di NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 492 13 Domenico Domenico NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 492 14 [ [ -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 492 15 16 16 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 492 16 ] ] -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 492 17 that that IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 492 18 school school NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 492 19 closure closure NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 492 20 has have VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 492 21 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 492 22 minor minor JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 492 23 influence influence NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 492 24 on on IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 492 25 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 492 26 epidemic epidemic NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 492 27 peak peak NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 492 28 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 492 29 531 531 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 492 30 just just RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 492 31 delays delay VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 492 32 it -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 492 33 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 493 1 Second second RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 493 2 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 493 3 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 493 4 partial partial JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 493 5 lockdown lockdown NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 493 6 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 493 7 adults adult NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 493 8 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 493 9 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 493 10 show show VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 493 11 that that IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 493 12 adults adult NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 493 13 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 493 14 532 532 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 493 15 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 493 16 lockdown lockdown NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 493 17 has have VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 493 18 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 493 19 similar similar JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 493 20 first first JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 493 21 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 493 22 order order NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 493 23 effect effect NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 493 24 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 493 25 linear linear JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 493 26 coefficients coefficient NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 493 27 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 493 28 L L NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 493 29 a a NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 493 30 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 493 31 L L NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 493 32 c c NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 493 33 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 493 34 but but CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 494 1 533 533 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 494 2 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 494 3 combination combination NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 494 4 between between IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 494 5 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 494 6 two two CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 494 7 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 494 8 L L NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 494 9 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 494 10 L l NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 494 11 c c NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 494 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 494 13 has have VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 494 14 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 494 15 bigger big JJR cord-328957-mzi8504f 494 16 weight weight NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 494 17 on on IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 494 18 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 494 19 average average JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 494 20 infection infection NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 494 21 534 534 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 494 22 rate rate NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 494 23 as as IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 494 24 shown show VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 494 25 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 494 26 Eqs Eqs NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 494 27 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 494 28 19 19 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 494 29 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 494 30 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 494 31 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 494 32 21 21 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 494 33 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 494 34 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 495 1 These these DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 495 2 results result NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 495 3 match match VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 495 4 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 495 5 conclusions conclusion NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 495 6 reported report VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 495 7 by by IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 495 8 535 535 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 495 9 Aglar Aglar NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 495 10 et et NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 495 11 al al NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 495 12 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 496 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 496 2 2020 2020 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 496 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 496 4 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 496 5 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 496 6 state state NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 496 7 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 496 8 Georgia Georgia NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 496 9 regarding regard VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 496 10 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 496 11 voluntary voluntary JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 496 12 lockdown lockdown NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 496 13 with with IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 496 14 536 536 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 496 15 school school NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 496 16 closure closure NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 496 17 [ [ -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 496 18 36 36 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 496 19 ] ] -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 496 20 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 497 1 By by IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 497 2 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 497 3 same same JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 497 4 token token NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 497 5 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 497 6 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 497 7 lockdown lockdown NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 497 8 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 497 9 approximately approximately RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 497 10 half half NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 497 11 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 497 12 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 497 13 adult adult NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 497 14 537 537 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 497 15 population population NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 497 16 prevents prevent VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 497 17 an an DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 497 18 outbreak outbreak NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 497 19 where where WRB cord-328957-mzi8504f 497 20 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 497 21 lockdown lockdown NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 497 22 has have VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 497 23 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 497 24 less less RBR cord-328957-mzi8504f 497 25 significant significant JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 497 26 influence influence NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 497 27 538 538 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 497 28 as as IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 497 29 shown show VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 497 30 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 497 31 Figs Figs NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 497 32 8 8 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 497 33 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 497 34 9 9 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 497 35 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 498 1 These these DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 498 2 results result NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 498 3 are be VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 498 4 based base VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 498 5 on on IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 498 6 values value NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 498 7 from from IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 498 8 Table table NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 498 9 1 1 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 498 10 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 498 11 which which WDT cord-328957-mzi8504f 498 12 can can MD cord-328957-mzi8504f 498 13 vary vary VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 498 14 539 539 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 498 15 significantly significantly RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 498 16 between between IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 498 17 countries country NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 498 18 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 498 19 depend depend VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 498 20 on on IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 498 21 other other JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 498 22 hyperparameters hyperparameter NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 498 23 such such JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 498 24 as as IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 498 25 population population NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 498 26 540 540 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 498 27 density density NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 498 28 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 498 29 age age NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 498 30 distribution distribution NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 498 31 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 498 32 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 498 33 population population NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 498 34 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 498 35 others other NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 498 36 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 499 1 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 499 2 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 499 3 explains explain VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 499 4 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 499 5 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 499 6 that that WDT cord-328957-mzi8504f 499 7 took take VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 499 8 place place NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 499 9 between between IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 499 10 August August NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 499 11 15 15 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 499 12 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 499 13 September September NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 499 14 542 542 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 499 15 15 15 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 499 16 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 499 17 2020 2020 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 499 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 499 19 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 499 20 Israel Israel NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 499 21 as as IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 499 22 presented present VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 499 23 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 499 24 Fig Fig NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 499 25 11 11 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 499 26 with with IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 499 27 mean mean JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 499 28 square square JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 499 29 error error NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 499 30 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 499 31 MSE MSE NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 499 32 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 499 33 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 499 34 0.205 0.205 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 499 35 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 500 1 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 500 2 543 543 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 500 3 opening opening NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 500 4 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 500 5 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 500 6 schools school NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 500 7 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 500 8 equal equal JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 500 9 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 500 10 reducing reduce VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 500 11 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 500 12 lockdown lockdown NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 500 13 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 500 14 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 500 15 with with IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 500 16 some some DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 500 17 relaxation relaxation NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 500 18 544 544 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 500 19 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 500 20 smaller small JJR cord-328957-mzi8504f 500 21 L L NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 500 22 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 500 23 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 500 24 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 500 25 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 500 26 lockdown lockdown NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 500 27 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 500 28 adults adult NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 500 29 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 500 30 because because IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 500 31 if if IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 500 32 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 500 33 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 500 34 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 500 35 school school NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 500 36 they -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 500 37 can can MD cord-328957-mzi8504f 500 38 go go VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 500 39 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 500 40 545 545 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 500 41 work work NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 500 42 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 500 43 with with IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 500 44 less less JJR cord-328957-mzi8504f 500 45 then then RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 500 46 half half NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 500 47 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 500 48 50 50 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 500 49 % % NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 500 50 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 500 51 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 500 52 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 500 53 adult adult NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 500 54 population population NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 500 55 voluntary voluntary JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 500 56 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 500 57 lockdown lockdown NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 500 58 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 501 1 Also also RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 501 2 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 501 3 546 546 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 501 4 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 501 5 schooling schooling NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 501 6 hours hour NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 501 7 were be VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 501 8 reduced reduce VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 501 9 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 501 10 less less JJR cord-328957-mzi8504f 501 11 than than IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 501 12 6 6 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 501 13 hours hour NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 501 14 each each DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 501 15 day day NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 501 16 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 502 1 From from IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 502 2 Figs Figs NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 502 3 7a 7a NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 502 4 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 502 5 8c 8c CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 502 6 547 547 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 503 1 it -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 503 2 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 503 3 easy easy JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 503 4 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 503 5 see see VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 503 6 that that IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 503 7 this this DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 503 8 policy policy NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 503 9 predicts predict VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 503 10 high high JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 503 11 increase increase NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 503 12 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 503 13 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 503 14 infection infection NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 503 15 rate rate NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 503 16 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 503 17 as as IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 503 18 indeed indeed RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 503 19 548 548 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 503 20 happened happen VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 503 21 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 504 1 Keeping keep VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 504 2 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 504 3 schools school NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 504 4 open open JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 504 5 while while IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 504 6 keeping keep VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 504 7 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 504 8 increase increase NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 504 9 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 504 10 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 504 11 infection infection NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 504 12 rate rate NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 504 13 549 549 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 504 14 from from IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 504 15 increasing increase VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 504 16 significantly significantly RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 504 17 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 504 18 possible possible JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 504 19 if if IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 504 20 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 504 21 schooling schooling NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 504 22 hours hour NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 504 23 are be VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 504 24 longer long JJR cord-328957-mzi8504f 504 25 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 504 26 8 8 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 504 27 - - SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 504 28 9 9 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 504 29 hours hour NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 504 30 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 504 31 as as IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 504 32 550 550 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 504 33 shown show VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 504 34 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 504 35 Fig Fig NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 504 36 7a 7a NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 504 37 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 505 1 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 505 2 influence influence NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 505 3 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 505 4 this this DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 505 5 policy policy NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 505 6 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 505 7 Israel Israel NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 505 8 during during IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 505 9 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 505 10 school school NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 505 11 opening opening NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 505 12 which which WDT cord-328957-mzi8504f 505 13 551 551 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 505 14 take take VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 505 15 place place NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 505 16 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 505 17 September September NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 505 18 1 1 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 505 19 show show VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 505 20 that that IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 505 21 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 505 22 R r NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 505 23 0 0 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 505 24 can can MD cord-328957-mzi8504f 505 25 be be VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 505 26 reduced reduce VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 505 27 by by IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 505 28 0.83 0.83 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 505 29 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 505 30 comparison comparison NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 505 31 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 505 32 552 552 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 505 33 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 505 34 policy policy NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 505 35 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 505 36 which which WDT cord-328957-mzi8504f 505 37 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 505 38 go go VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 505 39 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 505 40 school school NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 505 41 every every DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 505 42 other other JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 505 43 day day NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 505 44 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 505 45 five five CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 505 46 hours hour NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 505 47 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 505 48 as as IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 505 49 shown show VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 505 50 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 505 51 Fig Fig NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 505 52 553 553 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 505 53 _SP cord-328957-mzi8504f 505 54 11 11 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 505 55 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 506 1 Also also RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 506 2 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 506 3 if if IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 506 4 at at RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 506 5 least least JJS cord-328957-mzi8504f 506 6 half half NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 506 7 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 506 8 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 506 9 adult adult NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 506 10 population population NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 506 11 will will MD cord-328957-mzi8504f 506 12 be be VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 506 13 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 506 14 lockdown lockdown NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 506 15 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 506 16 influence influence NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 506 17 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 506 18 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 506 19 554 554 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 506 20 schools school NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 506 21 on on IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 506 22 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 506 23 infection infection NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 506 24 rate rate NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 506 25 will will MD cord-328957-mzi8504f 506 26 be be VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 506 27 relatively relatively RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 506 28 small small JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 506 29 as as IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 506 30 shown show VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 506 31 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 506 32 Fig Fig NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 506 33 8b 8b NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 506 34 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 506 35 _SP cord-328957-mzi8504f 507 1 In in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 507 2 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 507 3 case case NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 507 4 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 507 5 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 507 6 future future JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 507 7 pandemic pandemic NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 507 8 virus virus NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 507 9 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 507 10 researchers researcher NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 507 11 will will MD cord-328957-mzi8504f 507 12 be be VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 507 13 able able JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 507 14 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 507 15 use use VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 507 16 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-328957-mzi8504f 507 17 approach approach NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 507 18 556 556 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 507 19 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 507 20 predict predict VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 507 21 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 507 22 exact exact JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 507 23 consequences consequence NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 507 24 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 507 25 choosing choose VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 507 26 " " `` cord-328957-mzi8504f 507 27 Lockdown lockdown NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 507 28 " " '' cord-328957-mzi8504f 507 29 strategies strategy NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 507 30 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 507 31 especially especially RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 507 32 those those DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 507 33 557 557 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 507 34 needed need VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 507 35 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 507 36 pandemics pandemic NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 507 37 with with IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 507 38 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 507 39 lack lack NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 507 40 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 507 41 immunity immunity NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 507 42 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 507 43 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 507 44 world world NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 507 45 's 's POS cord-328957-mzi8504f 507 46 population population NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 507 47 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 508 1 Understanding understand VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 508 2 558 558 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 508 3 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 508 4 age age NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 508 5 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 508 6 based base VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 508 7 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 508 8 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 508 9 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 508 10 spread spread NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 508 11 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 508 12 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 508 13 population population NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 508 14 will will MD cord-328957-mzi8504f 508 15 be be VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 508 16 crucial crucial JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 508 17 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 508 18 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 508 19 559 559 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 508 20 development development NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 508 21 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 508 22 an an DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 508 23 optimal optimal JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 508 24 NPI npi NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 508 25 policy policy NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 508 26 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 508 27 as as RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 508 28 well well RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 508 29 as as IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 508 30 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 508 31 optimizing optimize VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 508 32 current current JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 508 33 polices police NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 508 34 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 508 35 560 560 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 508 36 analyzing analyze VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 508 37 clinical clinical JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 508 38 data datum NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 508 39 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 509 1 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 509 2 further further JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 509 3 extensions extension NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 509 4 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 509 5 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 509 6 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 509 7 will will MD cord-328957-mzi8504f 509 8 be be VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 509 9 used use VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 509 10 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 509 11 learn learn VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 509 12 how how WRB cord-328957-mzi8504f 509 13 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 509 14 561 561 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 509 15 manage manage VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 509 16 international international JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 509 17 travel travel NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 509 18 between between IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 509 19 countries country NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 509 20 with with IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 509 21 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 509 22 range range NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 509 23 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 509 24 healthcare healthcare NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 509 25 system system NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 509 26 abilities abilitie VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 509 27 562 562 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 509 28 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 509 29 both both CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 509 30 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 509 31 context context NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 509 32 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 509 33 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 509 34 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 509 35 epidemic epidemic NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 509 36 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 509 37 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 509 38 other other JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 509 39 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 509 40 scenarios scenario NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 509 41 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 510 1 November November NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 510 2 2 2 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 510 3 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 510 4 2020 2020 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 510 5 25/28 25/28 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 510 6 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 511 1 CC CC NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 511 2 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 511 3 BY BY NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 511 4 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 511 5 NC NC NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 511 6 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 511 7 ND ND NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 511 8 4.0 4.0 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 511 9 International international JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 511 10 license license NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 511 11 It -PRON- PRP cord-328957-mzi8504f 511 12 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 511 13 made make VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 511 14 available available JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 511 15 under under IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 511 16 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 512 1 is be VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 512 2 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 512 3 author author NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 512 4 / / SYM cord-328957-mzi8504f 512 5 funder funder NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 512 6 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 512 7 who who WP cord-328957-mzi8504f 512 8 has have VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 512 9 granted grant VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 512 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 512 11 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 512 12 license license NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 512 13 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 512 14 display display VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 512 15 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 512 16 preprint preprint NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 512 17 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 512 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 512 19 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 513 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 513 2 which which WDT cord-328957-mzi8504f 513 3 was be VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 513 4 not not RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 513 5 certified certify VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 513 6 by by IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 513 7 peer peer NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 513 8 review review NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 513 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 514 1 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 514 2 copyright copyright NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 514 3 holder holder NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 514 4 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 514 5 this this DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 514 6 preprint preprint NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 514 7 this this DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 514 8 version version NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 514 9 posted post VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 514 10 November November NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 514 11 4 4 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 514 12 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 514 13 2020 2020 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 514 14 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 515 1 ; ; : cord-328957-mzi8504f 515 2 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.11.02.20224584 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.11.02.20224584 NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 515 3 doi doi NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 515 4 : : : cord-328957-mzi8504f 516 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 516 2 preprint preprint NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 516 3 Clinical clinical JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 516 4 progression progression NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 516 5 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 516 6 patients patient NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 516 7 with with IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 516 8 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 516 9 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 516 10 A a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 516 11 familial familial JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 516 12 cluster cluster NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 516 13 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 516 14 pneumonia pneumonia NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 516 15 associated associate VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 516 16 with with IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 516 17 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 516 18 2019 2019 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 516 19 novel novel NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 516 20 coronavirus coronavirus NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 516 21 indicating indicate VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 516 22 person person NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 516 23 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 516 24 toperson toperson NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 516 25 transmission transmission NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 516 26 : : : cord-328957-mzi8504f 516 27 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 516 28 study study NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 516 29 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 516 30 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 516 31 family family NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 516 32 cluster cluster NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 516 33 Note note VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 516 34 from from IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 516 35 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 516 36 editors editor NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 517 1 : : : cord-328957-mzi8504f 517 2 World World NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 517 3 Health Health NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 517 4 Organization Organization NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 517 5 declares declare VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 517 6 novel novel JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 517 7 coronavirus coronavirus NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 517 8 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 517 9 2019-nCoV 2019-ncov CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 517 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 517 11 sixth sixth JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 517 12 public public JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 517 13 health health NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 517 14 emergency emergency NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 517 15 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 517 16 international international JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 517 17 concern concern NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 517 18 Epidemic Epidemic NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 517 19 spread spread VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 517 20 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 517 21 human human JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 517 22 networks network NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 517 23 Epidemiological epidemiological JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 517 24 Characteristics characteristic NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 517 25 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 517 26 2143 2143 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 517 27 Pediatric Pediatric NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 517 28 Patients patient NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 1 With with IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 2 2019 2019 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 3 Coronavirus Coronavirus NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 4 Disease Disease NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 5 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 6 China China NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 7 Clinical clinical JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 8 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 9 epidemiological epidemiological JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 10 characteristics characteristic NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 11 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 12 1420 1420 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 13 European european JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 14 patients patient NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 15 with with IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 16 mild mild NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 17 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 18 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 19 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 20 moderate moderate JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 21 coronavirus coronavirus NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 22 disease disease NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 23 2019 2019 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 24 Effects effect NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 25 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 26 age age NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 27 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 28 sex sex NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 29 on on IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 30 recovery recovery NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 31 from from IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 32 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 33 : : : cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 34 Analysis analysis NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 35 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 36 5769 5769 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 37 Israeli israeli JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 38 patients patient NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 39 Early early JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 40 antiviral antiviral JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 41 treatment treatment NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 42 contributes contribute VBZ cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 43 to to TO cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 44 alleviate alleviate VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 45 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 46 severity severity NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 47 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 48 improve improve VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 49 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 50 prognosis prognosis NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 51 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 52 patients patient NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 53 with with IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 54 novel novel JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 55 coronavirus coronavirus NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 56 disease disease NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 57 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 58 COVID-19 covid-19 VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 59 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 60 Mathematical mathematical JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 61 models model NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 62 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 63 SIR SIR NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 64 disease disease NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 65 spread spread VBD cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 66 with with IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 67 combined combine VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 68 non non JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 69 - - JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 70 sexual sexual JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 71 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 72 sexual sexual JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 73 transmission transmission NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 74 routes route NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 518 75 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 519 1 Infectious Infectious NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 519 2 Disease Disease NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 519 3 Modelling Modelling NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 519 4 Mathematical mathematical JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 519 5 modelling modelling NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 519 6 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 519 7 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 519 8 transmission transmission NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 519 9 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 519 10 mitigation mitigation NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 519 11 strategies strategy NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 519 12 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 519 13 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 519 14 population population NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 519 15 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 519 16 Ontario Ontario NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 519 17 Statistics Statistics NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 519 18 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 519 19 based base VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 519 20 Predictions prediction NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 519 21 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 519 22 Coronavirus Coronavirus NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 519 23 Epidemic Epidemic NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 519 24 Spreading spread VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 519 25 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 519 26 Mainland Mainland NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 519 27 China China NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 519 28 Mathematical Mathematical NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 519 29 modeling modeling NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 519 30 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 519 31 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 519 32 spread spread NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 519 33 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 519 34 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 519 35 coronavirus coronavirus NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 519 36 disease disease NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 519 37 2019 2019 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 519 38 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 519 39 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 519 40 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 519 41 taking take VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 519 42 into into IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 519 43 account account NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 519 44 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 519 45 undetected undetected JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 519 46 infections infection NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 519 47 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 520 1 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 520 2 case case NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 520 3 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 520 4 China China NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 520 5 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 521 1 Communications communication NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 521 2 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 521 3 nonlinear nonlinear JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 521 4 science science NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 521 5 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 521 6 numerical numerical JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 521 7 simulation simulation NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 521 8 Artificial Artificial NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 521 9 Intelligence Intelligence NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 521 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 521 11 AI AI NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 521 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 522 1 Provided provide VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 522 2 Early Early NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 522 3 Detection Detection NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 522 4 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 522 5 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 522 6 Coronavirus Coronavirus NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 522 7 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 522 8 COVID-19 covid-19 VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 522 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 522 10 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 522 11 China China NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 522 12 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 522 13 Will Will MD cord-328957-mzi8504f 522 14 Influence influence VB cord-328957-mzi8504f 522 15 Future future NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 1 Urban Urban NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 2 Health Health NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 3 Policy Policy NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 4 Internationally internationally RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 5 Imitation imitation NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 6 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 7 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 8 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 9 mitigation mitigation NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 10 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 11 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 12 novel novel JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 13 coronavirus coronavirus NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 14 disease disease NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 15 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 16 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 17 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 18 outbreak outbreak NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 19 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 20 Wuhan Wuhan NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 21 Impact Impact NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 22 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 23 lockdown lockdown NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 24 on on IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 25 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 26 epidemic epidemic NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 27 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 28 Ile Ile NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 29 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 30 de de NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 31 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 32 France France NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 33 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 34 possible possible JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 35 exit exit NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 36 strategies strategy NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 37 A A NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 38 Case Case NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 39 Series Series NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 40 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 41 Children Children NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 42 With with IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 43 2019 2019 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 44 Novel Novel NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 45 Coronavirus Coronavirus NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 46 Infection infection NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 47 : : : cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 48 Clinical clinical JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 49 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 50 Epidemiological Epidemiological NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 51 Features Features NNPS cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 52 Estimation Estimation NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 53 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 54 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 55 asymptomatic asymptomatic JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 56 ratio ratio NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 57 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 58 novel novel JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 59 coronavirus coronavirus NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 60 infections infection NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 61 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 62 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 63 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 64 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 65 epidemic epidemic NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 66 : : : cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 67 Disease Disease NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 68 characteristics characteristic NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 69 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 70 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 71 Simulating simulate VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 72 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 73 spread spread NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 74 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 75 COVID-19 covid-19 NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 76 via via IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 77 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 78 spatially spatially RB cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 79 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 80 resolved resolve VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 81 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 82 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 83 exposed expose VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 84 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 85 infected infect VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 86 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 87 recovered recover VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 88 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 89 deceased deceased JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 90 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 91 SEIRD SEIRD NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 92 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 93 model model NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 94 with with IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 95 heterogeneous heterogeneous JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 96 diffusion diffusion NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 97 System System NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 98 inference inference NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 99 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 100 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 101 spatio spatio JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 102 - - HYPH cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 103 temporal temporal JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 104 evolution evolution NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 105 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 106 infectious infectious JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 107 diseases disease NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 108 : : : cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 109 Michigan Michigan NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 110 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 111 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 112 time time NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 113 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 114 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 115 A a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 116 contribution contribution NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 117 to to IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 118 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 119 mathematical mathematical JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 120 theory theory NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 121 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 122 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 123 Rational rational JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 124 evaluation evaluation NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 125 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 126 various various JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 127 epidemic epidemic NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 128 models model NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 129 based base VBN cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 130 on on IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 131 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 132 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 133 data datum NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 134 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 135 China China NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 523 136 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 2 Modeling model VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 3 seasonal seasonal JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 4 influenze influenze NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 5 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 6 Israel Israel NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 7 Births Births NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 8 : : : cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 9 Final Final NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 10 Data datum NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 11 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 12 2018 2018 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 13 Deaths death NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 14 : : : cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 15 Final Final NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 16 Data datum NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 17 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 18 2017 2017 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 19 Cardiovascular Cardiovascular NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 20 Disease Disease NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 21 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 22 Drug Drug NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 23 Therapy Therapy NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 24 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 25 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 26 Mortality mortality NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 27 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 28 Covid-19 Covid-19 NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 29 Characteristics Characteristics NNPS cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 30 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 31 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 32 important important JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 33 lessons lesson NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 34 from from IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 35 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 36 coronavirus coronavirus NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 37 disease disease NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 38 2019 2019 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 39 ( ( -LRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 40 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 41 ) ) -RRB- cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 42 outbreak outbreak NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 43 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 44 China China NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 45 : : : cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 46 summary summary NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 47 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 48 a a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 49 report report NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 50 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 51 72314 72314 CD cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 52 cases case NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 53 from from IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 54 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 55 Chinese Chinese NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 56 Center Center NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 57 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 58 Disease Disease NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 59 Control Control NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 60 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 61 Prevention Prevention NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 62 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 63 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 64 children child NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 65 : : : cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 66 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 67 link link NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 68 in in IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 69 the the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 70 transmission transmission NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 71 chain chain NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 72 Non non JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 73 - - JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 74 homogeneous homogeneous JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 75 Markov Markov NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 76 Chains Chains NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 77 Reproduction Reproduction NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 78 numbers number NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 79 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 80 subthreshold subthreshold VBP cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 81 endemic endemic JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 82 equilibria equilibrium NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 83 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 84 compartmental compartmental JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 85 models model NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 86 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 87 disease disease NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 88 transmission transmission NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 89 Numerical Numerical NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 90 Methods Methods NNPS cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 91 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 92 Least Least JJS cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 93 Squares Squares NNPS cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 94 Problems Problems NNPS cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 95 Polynomial Polynomial NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 96 Regression Regression NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 97 with with IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 98 Response Response NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 99 Surface Surface NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 100 Analysis Analysis NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 101 : : : cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 102 A a DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 103 Powerful powerful JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 104 Approach approach NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 105 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 106 Examining examine VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 107 Moderation moderation NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 108 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 109 Overcoming overcoming NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 110 Limitations limitation NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 111 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 112 Difference difference NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 113 Scores score NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 114 Evaluating evaluate VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 115 Scenarios Scenarios NNPS cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 116 for for IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 117 School School NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 118 Reopening reopen VBG cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 119 under under IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 120 COVID19 covid19 NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 524 121 . . . cord-328957-mzi8504f 525 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 525 2 Homebound Homebound NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 525 3 by by IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 525 4 COVID19 covid19 NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 525 5 : : : cord-328957-mzi8504f 526 1 The the DT cord-328957-mzi8504f 526 2 Benets Benets NNPS cord-328957-mzi8504f 526 3 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 526 4 Consequences consequence NNS cord-328957-mzi8504f 526 5 of of IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 526 6 Non non JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 526 7 - - JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 526 8 pharmaceutical pharmaceutical JJ cord-328957-mzi8504f 526 9 Intervention Intervention NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 526 10 Strategies Strategies NNPS cord-328957-mzi8504f 526 11 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-328957-mzi8504f 526 12 lockdown lockdown NN cord-328957-mzi8504f 526 13 : : : cord-328957-mzi8504f 526 14 if if IN cord-328957-mzi8504f 526 15 , , , cord-328957-mzi8504f 526 16 when when WRB cord-328957-mzi8504f 526 17 and and CC cord-328957-mzi8504f 526 18 how how WRB