id sid tid token lemma pos cord-315587-jelh8o3v 1 1 key key NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 1 2 : : : cord-315587-jelh8o3v 2 1 cord-315587-jelh8o3v cord-315587-jelh8o3v CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 2 2 authors author NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 2 3 : : : cord-315587-jelh8o3v 2 4 Dye dye NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 2 5 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 2 6 C. C. NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 2 7 ; ; : cord-315587-jelh8o3v 2 8 Cheng Cheng NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 2 9 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 2 10 R. R. NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 2 11 C. C. NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 2 12 H. H. NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 2 13 ; ; : cord-315587-jelh8o3v 3 1 Dagpunar Dagpunar NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 3 2 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 3 3 J. J. NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 3 4 S. S. NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 3 5 ; ; : cord-315587-jelh8o3v 3 6 Williams Williams NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 3 7 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 3 8 B. B. NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 3 9 G. G. NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 3 10 title title NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 3 11 : : : cord-315587-jelh8o3v 4 1 The the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 4 2 scale scale NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 4 3 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 4 4 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 4 5 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 4 6 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 4 7 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 4 8 across across IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 4 9 Europe Europe NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 4 10 date date NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 4 11 : : : cord-315587-jelh8o3v 4 12 2020 2020 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 4 13 - - HYPH cord-315587-jelh8o3v 4 14 06 06 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 4 15 - - SYM cord-315587-jelh8o3v 4 16 29 29 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 4 17 journal journal NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 4 18 : : : cord-315587-jelh8o3v 4 19 nan nan NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 4 20 DOI DOI NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 4 21 : : : cord-315587-jelh8o3v 5 1 10.1101/2020.06.26.20131144 10.1101/2020.06.26.20131144 LS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 6 1 sha sha NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 6 2 : : : cord-315587-jelh8o3v 6 3 3dec04124169cdb21a7c128ef43bf615484cb046 3dec04124169cdb21a7c128ef43bf615484cb046 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 6 4 doc_id doc_id CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 6 5 : : : cord-315587-jelh8o3v 6 6 315587 315587 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 6 7 cord_uid cord_uid NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 6 8 : : : cord-315587-jelh8o3v 7 1 jelh8o3v jelh8o3v NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 8 1 The the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 8 2 frequently frequently RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 8 3 stated state VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 8 4 goal goal NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 8 5 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 8 6 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 8 7 control control NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 8 8 is be VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 8 9 to to TO cord-315587-jelh8o3v 8 10 ' ' `` cord-315587-jelh8o3v 8 11 flatten flatten VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 8 12 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 8 13 curve curve NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 8 14 ' ' '' cord-315587-jelh8o3v 8 15 ; ; : cord-315587-jelh8o3v 8 16 that that RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 8 17 is is RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 8 18 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 8 19 to to TO cord-315587-jelh8o3v 8 20 slow slow VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 8 21 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 8 22 epidemic epidemic NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 8 23 by by IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 8 24 limiting limit VBG cord-315587-jelh8o3v 8 25 contacts contact NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 8 26 between between IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 8 27 infectious infectious JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 8 28 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 8 29 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 8 30 individuals individual NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 8 31 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 8 32 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 8 33 to to TO cord-315587-jelh8o3v 8 34 reduce reduce VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 8 35 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 8 36 delay delay VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 8 37 peak peak NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 8 38 numbers number NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 8 39 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 8 40 cases case NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 8 41 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 8 42 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 8 43 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 9 1 Here here RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 9 2 we -PRON- PRP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 9 3 investigate investigate VBP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 9 4 how how WRB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 9 5 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 9 6 scale scale NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 9 7 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 9 8 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 9 9 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 9 10 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 9 11 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 9 12 differ differ VBP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 9 13 among among IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 9 14 26 26 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 9 15 European european JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 9 16 countries country NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 9 17 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 9 18 which which WDT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 9 19 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 9 20 numbers number NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 9 21 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 9 22 reported report VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 9 23 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 9 24 varied vary VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 9 25 more more RBR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 9 26 than than IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 9 27 100-fold 100-fold CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 9 28 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 10 1 Under under IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 10 2 lockdown lockdown NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 10 3 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 10 4 countries country NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 10 5 reporting report VBG cord-315587-jelh8o3v 10 6 fewer few JJR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 10 7 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 10 8 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 10 9 total total NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 10 10 also also RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 10 11 had have VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 10 12 lower low JJR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 10 13 peak peak NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 10 14 death death NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 10 15 rates rate NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 10 16 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 10 17 as as IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 10 18 expected expect VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 10 19 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 10 20 but but CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 10 21 shorter short JJR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 10 22 rather rather RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 10 23 than than IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 10 24 longer long JJR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 10 25 periods period NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 10 26 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 10 27 epidemic epidemic NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 10 28 growth growth NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 10 29 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 11 1 This this DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 11 2 empirical empirical JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 11 3 analysis analysis NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 11 4 highlights highlight VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 11 5 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 11 6 benefits benefit NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 11 7 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 11 8 intervening intervene VBG cord-315587-jelh8o3v 11 9 early early RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 11 10 to to TO cord-315587-jelh8o3v 11 11 curtail curtail VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 11 12 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 11 13 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 11 14 : : : cord-315587-jelh8o3v 11 15 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 11 16 cumulative cumulative JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 11 17 number number NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 11 18 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 11 19 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 11 20 reported report VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 11 21 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 11 22 each each DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 11 23 country country NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 11 24 by by IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 11 25 20 20 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 11 26 June June NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 11 27 was be VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 11 28 60 60 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 11 29 - - SYM cord-315587-jelh8o3v 11 30 200 200 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 11 31 times time NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 11 32 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 11 33 number number NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 11 34 reported report VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 11 35 by by IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 11 36 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 11 37 date date NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 11 38 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 11 39 lockdown lockdown NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 11 40 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 12 1 The the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 12 2 frequently frequently RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 12 3 stated state VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 12 4 goal goal NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 12 5 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 12 6 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 12 7 control control NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 12 8 is be VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 12 9 to to TO cord-315587-jelh8o3v 12 10 " " `` cord-315587-jelh8o3v 12 11 flatten flatten VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 12 12 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 12 13 curve curve NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 12 14 " " '' cord-315587-jelh8o3v 12 15 ; ; : cord-315587-jelh8o3v 12 16 that that RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 12 17 is is RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 12 18 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 12 19 to to TO cord-315587-jelh8o3v 12 20 slow slow VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 12 21 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 12 22 epidemic epidemic NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 12 23 by by IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 12 24 limiting limit VBG cord-315587-jelh8o3v 12 25 contacts contact NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 12 26 between between IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 12 27 infectious infectious JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 12 28 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 12 29 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 12 30 individuals individual NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 12 31 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 12 32 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 12 33 to to TO cord-315587-jelh8o3v 12 34 reduce reduce VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 12 35 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 12 36 delay delay VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 12 37 peak peak NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 12 38 numbers number NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 12 39 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 12 40 cases case NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 12 41 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 12 42 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 12 43 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 13 1 Here here RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 13 2 we -PRON- PRP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 13 3 investigate investigate VBP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 13 4 how how WRB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 13 5 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 13 6 scale scale NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 13 7 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 13 8 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 13 9 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 13 10 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 13 11 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 13 12 differ differ VBP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 13 13 among among IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 13 14 26 26 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 13 15 European european JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 13 16 countries country NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 13 17 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 13 18 which which WDT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 13 19 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 13 20 numbers number NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 13 21 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 13 22 reported report VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 13 23 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 13 24 varied vary VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 13 25 more more RBR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 13 26 than than IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 13 27 100-fold 100-fold CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 13 28 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 14 1 Under under IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 14 2 lockdown lockdown NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 14 3 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 14 4 countries country NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 14 5 reporting report VBG cord-315587-jelh8o3v 14 6 fewer few JJR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 14 7 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 14 8 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 14 9 total total NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 14 10 also also RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 14 11 had have VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 14 12 lower low JJR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 14 13 peak peak NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 14 14 death death NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 14 15 rates rate NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 14 16 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 14 17 as as IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 14 18 expected expect VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 14 19 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 14 20 but but CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 14 21 shorter short JJR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 14 22 rather rather RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 14 23 than than IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 14 24 longer long JJR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 14 25 periods period NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 14 26 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 14 27 epidemic epidemic NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 14 28 growth growth NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 14 29 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 15 1 This this DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 15 2 empirical empirical JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 15 3 analysis analysis NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 15 4 highlights highlight VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 15 5 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 15 6 benefits benefit NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 15 7 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 15 8 intervening intervene VBG cord-315587-jelh8o3v 15 9 early early RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 15 10 to to TO cord-315587-jelh8o3v 15 11 curtail curtail VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 15 12 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 15 13 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 15 14 : : : cord-315587-jelh8o3v 15 15 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 15 16 cumulative cumulative JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 15 17 number number NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 15 18 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 15 19 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 15 20 reported report VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 15 21 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 15 22 each each DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 15 23 country country NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 15 24 by by IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 15 25 20 20 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 15 26 June June NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 15 27 was be VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 15 28 60 60 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 15 29 - - SYM cord-315587-jelh8o3v 15 30 200 200 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 15 31 times time NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 15 32 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 15 33 number number NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 15 34 reported report VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 15 35 by by IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 15 36 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 15 37 date date NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 15 38 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 15 39 lockdown lockdown NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 15 40 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 16 1 The the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 16 2 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 16 3 death death NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 16 4 toll toll NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 16 5 has have VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 16 6 varied vary VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 16 7 more more JJR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 16 8 than than IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 16 9 100-fold 100-fold CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 16 10 across across IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 16 11 European european JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 16 12 countries country NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 16 13 ; ; : cord-315587-jelh8o3v 16 14 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 16 15 total total JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 16 16 number number NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 16 17 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 16 18 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 16 19 reported report VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 16 20 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 16 21 each each DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 16 22 country country NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 16 23 was be VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 16 24 60 60 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 16 25 - - SYM cord-315587-jelh8o3v 16 26 200 200 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 16 27 times time NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 16 28 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 16 29 number number NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 16 30 reported report VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 16 31 by by IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 16 32 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 16 33 date date NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 16 34 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 16 35 lockdown lockdown NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 16 36 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 17 1 Physical physical JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 17 2 distancing distancing NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 17 3 flattens flatten VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 17 4 an an DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 17 5 epidemic epidemic NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 17 6 curve curve NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 17 7 by by IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 17 8 reducing reduce VBG cord-315587-jelh8o3v 17 9 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 17 10 contact contact NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 17 11 rate rate NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 17 12 between between IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 17 13 infectious infectious JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 17 14 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 17 15 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 17 16 individuals individual NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 17 17 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 18 1 A a DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 18 2 lower low JJR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 18 3 contact contact NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 18 4 rate rate NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 18 5 lowers lower VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 18 6 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 18 7 basic basic JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 18 8 case case NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 18 9 reproduction reproduction NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 18 10 number number NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 18 11 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 18 12 R0 R0 NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 18 13 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 18 14 which which WDT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 18 15 reduces reduce VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 18 16 peak peak NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 18 17 incidence incidence NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 18 18 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 18 19 death death NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 18 20 rates rate NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 18 21 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 18 22 distributes distribute VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 18 23 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 18 24 burden burden NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 18 25 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 18 26 illness illness NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 18 27 over over IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 18 28 a a DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 18 29 longer long JJR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 18 30 time time NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 18 31 period period NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 18 32 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 18 33 1 1 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 18 34 - - SYM cord-315587-jelh8o3v 18 35 4 4 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 18 36 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 18 37 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 19 1 Flattening flatten VBG cord-315587-jelh8o3v 19 2 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 19 3 curve curve NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 19 4 protects protect VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 19 5 health health NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 19 6 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 19 7 health health NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 19 8 services service NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 19 9 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 20 1 For for IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 20 2 illustration illustration NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 20 3 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 20 4 Figure figure NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 20 5 1 1 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 20 6 shows show NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 20 7 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 20 8 with with IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 20 9 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 20 10 aid aid NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 20 11 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 20 12 a a DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 20 13 dynamic dynamic JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 20 14 SEIR SEIR NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 20 15 epidemiological epidemiological JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 20 16 model model NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 20 17 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 20 18 Supplementary Supplementary NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 20 19 Materials Materials NNPS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 20 20 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 20 21 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 20 22 how how WRB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 20 23 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 20 24 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 20 25 epidemic epidemic NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 20 26 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 20 27 Switzerland Switzerland NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 20 28 might may MD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 20 29 have have VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 20 30 been be VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 20 31 contained contain VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 20 32 by by IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 20 33 flattening flatten VBG cord-315587-jelh8o3v 20 34 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 20 35 curve curve NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 20 36 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 21 1 With with IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 21 2 an an DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 21 3 estimated estimated JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 21 4 basic basic JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 21 5 case case NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 21 6 reproduction reproduction NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 21 7 number number NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 21 8 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 21 9 R0 R0 NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 21 10 = = SYM cord-315587-jelh8o3v 21 11 2.33 2.33 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 21 12 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 21 13 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 21 14 number number NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 21 15 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 21 16 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 21 17 reached reach VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 21 18 a a DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 21 19 maximum maximum NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 21 20 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 21 21 approximately approximately RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 21 22 420 420 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 21 23 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 21 24 week week NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 21 25 15 15 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 21 26 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 21 27 week week NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 21 28 beginning begin VBG cord-315587-jelh8o3v 21 29 6 6 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 21 30 April April NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 21 31 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 21 32 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 21 33 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 21 34 a a DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 21 35 total total NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 21 36 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 21 37 1800 1800 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 21 38 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 21 39 had have VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 21 40 occurred occur VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 21 41 by by IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 21 42 week week NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 21 43 25 25 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 21 44 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 22 1 If if IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 22 2 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 22 3 basic basic JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 22 4 case case NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 22 5 reproduction reproduction NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 22 6 number number NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 22 7 had have VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 22 8 been be VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 22 9 higher high JJR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 22 10 at at IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 22 11 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 22 12 outset outset NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 22 13 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 22 14 R0 R0 NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 22 15 = = SYM cord-315587-jelh8o3v 22 16 3.50 3.50 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 22 17 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 22 18 Figure figure NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 22 19 1 1 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 22 20 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 23 1 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 23 2 epidemic epidemic NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 23 3 would would MD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 23 4 have have VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 23 5 been be VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 23 6 larger large JJR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 23 7 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 23 8 2020 2020 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 23 9 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 23 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 23 11 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 23 12 narrower narrow JJR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 23 13 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 23 14 peaking peak VBG cord-315587-jelh8o3v 23 15 sooner soon RBR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 23 16 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 23 17 lasting last VBG cord-315587-jelh8o3v 23 18 for for IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 23 19 a a DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 23 20 shorter short JJR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 23 21 period period NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 23 22 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 23 23 time time NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 23 24 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 24 1 A a DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 24 2 lower low JJR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 24 3 basic basic JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 24 4 case case NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 24 5 reproduction reproduction NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 24 6 number number NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 24 7 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 24 8 R0 R0 NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 24 9 = = SYM cord-315587-jelh8o3v 24 10 1.75 1.75 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 24 11 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 24 12 would would MD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 24 13 have have VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 24 14 reduced reduce VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 24 15 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 24 16 size size NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 24 17 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 24 18 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 24 19 epidemic epidemic NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 24 20 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 24 21 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 24 22 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 24 23 1300 1300 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 24 24 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 24 25 would would MD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 24 26 have have VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 24 27 occurred occur VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 24 28 over over IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 24 29 a a DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 24 30 longer long JJR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 24 31 time time NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 24 32 period period NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 24 33 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 24 34 flatter flat JJR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 24 35 epidemic epidemic NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 24 36 curve curve NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 24 37 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 24 38 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 25 1 These these DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 25 2 calculations calculation NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 25 3 are be VBP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 25 4 consistent consistent JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 25 5 with with IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 25 6 epidemic epidemic NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 25 7 theory theory NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 25 8 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 25 9 which which WDT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 25 10 shows show VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 25 11 how how WRB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 25 12 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 25 13 final final JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 25 14 size size NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 25 15 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 25 16 an an DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 25 17 epidemic epidemic NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 25 18 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 25 19 proportion proportion NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 25 20 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 25 21 people people NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 25 22 infected infect VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 25 23 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 25 24 p p NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 25 25 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 25 26 is be VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 25 27 a a DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 25 28 monotonically monotonically RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 25 29 increasing increase VBG cord-315587-jelh8o3v 25 30 function function NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 25 31 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 25 32 R0 R0 NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 25 33 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 25 34 through through IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 25 35 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 25 36 relationship relationship NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 25 37 = = SYM cord-315587-jelh8o3v 25 38 1 1 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 25 39 − − NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 25 40 exp exp NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 25 41 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 25 42 − − NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 25 43 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 25 44 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 25 45 5 5 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 25 46 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 25 47 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 26 1 Does do VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 26 2 this this DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 26 3 theory theory NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 26 4 explain explain VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 26 5 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 26 6 differences difference NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 26 7 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 26 8 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 26 9 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 26 10 across across IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 26 11 European european JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 26 12 countries country NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 26 13 ? ? . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 27 1 Did do VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 27 2 countries country NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 27 3 with with IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 27 4 more more RBR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 27 5 effective effective JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 27 6 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 27 7 control control NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 27 8 programmes programme NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 27 9 ─ ─ VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 27 10 those those DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 27 11 that that WDT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 27 12 reported report VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 27 13 fewer few JJR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 27 14 cases case NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 27 15 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 27 16 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 27 17 ─ ─ NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 27 18 have have VBP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 27 19 flatter flat JJR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 27 20 epidemic epidemic NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 27 21 curves curve NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 27 22 ? ? . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 28 1 How how WRB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 28 2 has have VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 28 3 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 28 4 scale scale NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 28 5 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 28 6 shape shape NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 28 7 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 28 8 European european JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 28 9 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 28 10 been be VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 28 11 changed change VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 28 12 by by IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 28 13 interventions intervention NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 28 14 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 28 15 especially especially RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 28 16 physical physical JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 28 17 distancing distancing NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 28 18 under under IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 28 19 lockdown lockdown NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 28 20 ? ? . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 29 1 Figure figure NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 29 2 2 2 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 29 3 approaches approach VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 29 4 these these DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 29 5 questions question NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 29 6 with with IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 29 7 respect respect NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 29 8 to to IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 29 9 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 29 10 number number NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 29 11 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 29 12 distribution distribution NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 29 13 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 29 14 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 29 15 through through IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 29 16 time time NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 29 17 for for IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 29 18 24 24 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 29 19 European european JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 29 20 countries country NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 29 21 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 1 Rather rather RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 2 than than IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 3 using use VBG cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 4 a a DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 5 dynamic dynamic JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 6 epidemiological epidemiological JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 7 model model NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 8 to to TO cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 9 describe describe VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 10 these these DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 11 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 12 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 13 such such JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 14 as as IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 15 an an DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 16 SEIR seir NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 17 model model NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 18 which which WDT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 19 is be VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 20 constrained constrain VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 21 by by IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 22 assumptions assumption NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 23 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 24 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 25 for for IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 26 example example NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 27 homogeneous homogeneous JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 28 mixing mixing NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 29 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 30 exponentially exponentially RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 31 distributed distribute VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 32 time time NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 33 periods period NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 34 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 35 Supplementary Supplementary NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 36 Materials Materials NNPS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 37 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 38 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 39 we -PRON- PRP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 40 used use VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 41 an an DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 42 empirical empirical JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 43 model model NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 44 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 45 skew skew VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 46 - - JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 47 logistic logistic NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 48 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 49 to to TO cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 50 measure measure VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 51 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 52 rate rate NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 53 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 54 epidemic epidemic NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 55 growth growth NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 56 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 57 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 58 maximum maximum JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 59 number number NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 60 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 61 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 62 per per IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 63 week week NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 64 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 65 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 66 period period NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 67 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 68 growth growth NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 69 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 70 time time NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 71 from from IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 72 one one CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 73 death death NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 74 to to IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 75 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 76 maximum maximum JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 77 number number NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 78 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 79 weekly weekly JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 80 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 81 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 82 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 83 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 84 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 85 rate rate NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 86 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 87 decline decline NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 30 88 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 31 1 The the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 31 2 empirical empirical JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 31 3 model model NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 31 4 gives give VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 31 5 an an DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 31 6 excellent excellent JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 31 7 description description NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 31 8 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 31 9 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 31 10 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 31 11 across across IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 31 12 Europe Europe NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 31 13 ; ; : cord-315587-jelh8o3v 31 14 it -PRON- PRP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 31 15 is be VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 31 16 also also RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 31 17 more more RBR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 31 18 discriminating discriminating JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 31 19 between between IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 31 20 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 31 21 than than IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 31 22 estimates estimate NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 31 23 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 31 24 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 31 25 time time NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 31 26 - - HYPH cord-315587-jelh8o3v 31 27 varying vary VBG cord-315587-jelh8o3v 31 28 case case NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 31 29 reproduction reproduction NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 31 30 number number NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 31 31 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 31 32 Supplementary Supplementary NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 31 33 Materials Materials NNPS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 31 34 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 31 35 Figure figure NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 31 36 S6 S6 NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 31 37 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 31 38 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 32 1 The the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 32 2 total total JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 32 3 number number NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 32 4 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 32 5 reported report VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 32 6 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 32 7 was be VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 32 8 5.6 5.6 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 32 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 32 10 95%CI 95%ci CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 32 11 0.29 0.29 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 32 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 32 13 times time NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 32 14 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 32 15 peak peak JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 32 16 number number NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 32 17 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 32 18 weekly weekly JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 32 19 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 32 20 across across IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 32 21 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 32 22 24 24 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 32 23 countries country NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 32 24 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 32 25 R r NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 32 26 2 2 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 32 27 = = SYM cord-315587-jelh8o3v 32 28 0.98 0.98 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 32 29 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 32 30 Figure figure NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 32 31 3a 3a CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 32 32 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 32 33 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 1 The the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 2 principal principal JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 3 determinant determinant NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 4 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 5 variation variation NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 6 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 7 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 8 number number NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 9 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 10 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 11 among among IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 12 countries country NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 13 was be VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 14 neither neither CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 15 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 16 rate rate NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 17 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 18 epidemic epidemic NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 19 growth growth NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 20 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 21 R r NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 22 2 2 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 23 = = SYM cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 24 0.01 0.01 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 25 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 26 Figure figure NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 27 3b 3b CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 28 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 29 nor nor CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 30 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 31 rate rate NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 32 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 33 decline decline NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 34 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 35 R r NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 36 2 2 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 37 = = SYM cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 38 0.03 0.03 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 39 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 40 Figure Figure NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 41 3c 3c NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 42 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 43 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 44 but but CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 45 rather rather RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 46 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 47 duration duration NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 48 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 49 growth growth NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 50 ─ ─ NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 51 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 52 period period NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 53 over over IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 54 which which WDT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 55 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 56 epidemic epidemic NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 57 was be VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 58 allowed allow VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 59 to to TO cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 60 expand expand VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 61 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 62 t t NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 63 = = SYM cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 64 3.91 3.91 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 65 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 66 p p NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 67 < < XX cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 68 0.001 0.001 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 69 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 70 R r NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 71 2 2 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 72 = = SYM cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 73 0.41 0.41 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 74 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 75 Figure Figure NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 76 _SP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 77 3d 3d NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 78 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 33 79 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 34 1 Longer long JJR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 34 2 periods period NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 34 3 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 34 4 epidemic epidemic NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 34 5 growth growth NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 34 6 were be VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 34 7 associated associate VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 34 8 with with IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 34 9 lower low JJR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 34 10 growth growth NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 34 11 rates rate NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 34 12 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 34 13 R r NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 34 14 2 2 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 34 15 = = SYM cord-315587-jelh8o3v 34 16 0.37 0.37 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 34 17 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 34 18 Figure Figure NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 34 19 _SP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 34 20 3e 3e NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 34 21 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 34 22 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 34 23 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 34 24 expected expect VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 34 25 consequence consequence NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 34 26 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 34 27 physical physical JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 34 28 distancing distancing NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 34 29 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 34 30 Figure figure NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 34 31 1 1 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 34 32 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 34 33 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 35 1 Against against IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 35 2 expectation expectation NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 35 3 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 35 4 however however RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 35 5 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 35 6 slower slow JJR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 35 7 growth growth NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 35 8 rates rate NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 35 9 were be VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 35 10 associated associate VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 35 11 with with IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 35 12 more more JJR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 35 13 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 35 14 rather rather RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 35 15 than than IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 35 16 fewer few JJR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 35 17 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 35 18 overall overall RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 35 19 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 36 1 The the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 36 2 reason reason NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 36 3 is be VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 36 4 that that IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 36 5 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 36 6 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 36 7 comparisons comparison NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 36 8 between between IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 36 9 countries country NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 36 10 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 36 11 slower slow JJR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 36 12 growth growth NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 36 13 was be VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 36 14 more more JJR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 36 15 than than IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 36 16 offset offset VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 36 17 by by IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 36 18 longer long JJR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 36 19 periods period NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 36 20 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 36 21 growth growth NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 36 22 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 36 23 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 36 24 red red JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 36 25 line line NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 36 26 lies lie VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 36 27 above above IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 36 28 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 36 29 black black JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 36 30 line line NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 36 31 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 36 32 equivalence equivalence NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 36 33 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 36 34 Figure figure NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 36 35 1e 1e CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 36 36 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 36 37 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 37 1 The the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 37 2 product product NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 37 3 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 37 4 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 37 5 rate rate NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 37 6 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 37 7 g g NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 37 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 37 9 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 37 10 duration duration NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 37 11 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 37 12 growth growth NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 37 13 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 37 14 d d NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 37 15 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 37 16 defines define VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 37 17 net net JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 37 18 epidemic epidemic NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 37 19 growth growth NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 37 20 ─ ─ VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 37 21 how how WRB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 37 22 much much JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 37 23 an an DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 37 24 outbreak outbreak NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 37 25 expands expand VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 37 26 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 37 27 size size NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 37 28 during during IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 37 29 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 37 30 growth growth NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 37 31 period period NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 37 32 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 38 1 Net net JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 38 2 growth growth NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 38 3 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 38 4 measured measure VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 38 5 by by IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 38 6 = = SYM cord-315587-jelh8o3v 38 7 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 38 8 accounted account VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 38 9 for for IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 38 10 88 88 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 38 11 % % NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 38 12 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 38 13 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 38 14 inter inter JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 38 15 - - JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 38 16 country country JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 38 17 variation variation NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 38 18 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 38 19 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 38 20 number number NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 38 21 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 38 22 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 38 23 t t NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 38 24 = = SYM cord-315587-jelh8o3v 38 25 12.4 12.4 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 38 26 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 38 27 p p NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 38 28 < < XX cord-315587-jelh8o3v 38 29 0.001 0.001 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 38 30 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 38 31 R r NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 38 32 2 2 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 38 33 = = SYM cord-315587-jelh8o3v 38 34 0.88 0.88 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 38 35 ; ; : cord-315587-jelh8o3v 38 36 Figure figure NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 38 37 3f 3f NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 38 38 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 38 39 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 39 1 Although although IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 39 2 such such PDT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 39 3 a a DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 39 4 relationship relationship NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 39 5 is be VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 39 6 expected expect VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 39 7 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 39 8 principle principle NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 39 9 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 39 10 it -PRON- PRP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 39 11 is be VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 39 12 surprising surprising JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 39 13 that that IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 39 14 theory theory NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 39 15 is be VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 39 16 upheld uphold VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 39 17 so so RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 39 18 faithfully faithfully RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 39 19 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 39 20 data datum NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 39 21 collected collect VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 39 22 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 39 23 different different JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 39 24 ways way NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 39 25 across across IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 39 26 24 24 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 39 27 diverse diverse JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 39 28 European european JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 39 29 countries country NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 39 30 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 1 Countries country NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 2 with with IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 3 larger large JJR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 4 populations population NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 5 generally generally RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 6 reported report VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 7 more more JJR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 8 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 10 t t NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 11 = = SYM cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 12 6.83 6.83 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 13 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 14 p p NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 15 < < XX cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 16 0.001 0.001 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 17 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 18 R r NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 19 2 2 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 20 = = SYM cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 21 0.68 0.68 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 22 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 23 ; ; : cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 24 however however RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 25 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 26 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 27 multiple multiple JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 28 regression regression NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 29 analysis analysis NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 30 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 31 population population NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 32 size size NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 33 did do VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 34 not not RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 35 explain explain VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 36 significantly significantly RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 37 more more JJR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 38 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 39 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 40 inter inter JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 41 - - JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 42 country country JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 43 variation variation NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 44 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 45 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 46 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 47 t t NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 48 = = SYM cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 49 1.75 1.75 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 50 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 51 p p NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 52 > > XX cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 53 0.05 0.05 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 54 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 55 than than IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 56 net net JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 57 growth growth NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 58 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 59 G G NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 60 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 61 t t NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 62 = = SYM cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 63 6.39 6.39 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 64 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 65 p p NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 66 < < XX cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 67 0.001 0.001 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 68 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 40 69 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 41 1 In in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 41 2 other other JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 41 3 words word NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 41 4 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 41 5 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 41 6 effect effect NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 41 7 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 41 8 population population NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 41 9 size size NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 41 10 is be VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 41 11 accommodated accommodate VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 41 12 within within IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 41 13 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 41 14 measure measure NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 41 15 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 41 16 net net JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 41 17 growth growth NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 41 18 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 42 1 There there EX cord-315587-jelh8o3v 42 2 is be VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 42 3 a a DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 42 4 hint hint NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 42 5 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 42 6 these these DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 42 7 data datum NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 42 8 that that IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 42 9 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 42 10 size size NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 42 11 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 42 12 a a DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 42 13 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 42 14 epidemic epidemic NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 42 15 increased increase VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 42 16 more more RBR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 42 17 than than IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 42 18 linearly linearly RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 42 19 with with IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 42 20 national national JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 42 21 population population NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 42 22 size size NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 42 23 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 42 24 N n CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 42 25 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 42 26 millions million NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 42 27 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 42 28 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 42 29 such such JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 42 30 that that IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 42 31 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 42 32 number number NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 42 33 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 42 34 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 42 35 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 42 36 = = SYM cord-315587-jelh8o3v 42 37 51.1 51.1 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 42 38 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 42 39 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 43 1 The the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 43 2 implication implication NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 43 3 is be VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 43 4 that that IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 43 5 population population NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 43 6 size size NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 43 7 is be VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 43 8 more more JJR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 43 9 than than IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 43 10 an an DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 43 11 epidemic epidemic NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 43 12 scaling scale VBG cord-315587-jelh8o3v 43 13 factor factor NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 43 14 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 43 15 with with IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 43 16 effects effect NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 43 17 that that WDT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 43 18 are be VBP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 43 19 not not RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 43 20 fully fully RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 43 21 captured capture VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 43 22 as as IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 43 23 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 43 24 per per IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 43 25 capita capita NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 43 26 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 44 1 However however RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 44 2 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 44 3 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 44 4 exponent exponent NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 44 5 1.32 1.32 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 44 6 is be VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 44 7 not not RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 44 8 significantly significantly RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 44 9 greater great JJR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 44 10 than than IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 44 11 unity unity NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 44 12 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 44 13 t t NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 44 14 = = SYM cord-315587-jelh8o3v 44 15 1.64 1.64 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 44 16 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 44 17 p p NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 44 18 > > XX cord-315587-jelh8o3v 44 19 0.05 0.05 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 44 20 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 44 21 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 45 1 In in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 45 2 any any DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 45 3 event event NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 45 4 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 45 5 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 45 6 expanded expand VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 45 7 more more RBR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 45 8 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 45 9 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 45 10 caused cause VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 45 11 more more JJR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 45 12 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 45 13 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 45 14 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 45 15 countries country NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 45 16 with with IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 45 17 larger large JJR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 45 18 populations population NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 45 19 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 46 1 Because because IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 46 2 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 46 3 duration duration NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 46 4 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 46 5 growth growth NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 46 6 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 46 7 Figure Figure NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 46 8 3d 3d NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 46 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 46 10 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 46 11 net net JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 46 12 growth growth NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 46 13 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 46 14 Figure figure NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 46 15 3f 3f NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 46 16 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 46 17 can can MD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 46 18 account account VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 46 19 for for IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 46 20 much much JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 46 21 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 46 22 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 46 23 inter inter JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 46 24 - - JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 46 25 country country JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 46 26 variation variation NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 46 27 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 46 28 numbers number NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 46 29 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 46 30 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 46 31 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 46 32 we -PRON- PRP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 46 33 expect expect VBP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 46 34 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 46 35 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 46 36 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 46 37 data datum NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 46 38 as as RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 46 39 well well RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 46 40 as as IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 46 41 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 46 42 theory theory NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 46 43 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 46 44 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 46 45 timing timing NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 46 46 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 46 47 interventions intervention NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 46 48 to to TO cord-315587-jelh8o3v 46 49 be be VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 46 50 a a DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 46 51 determinant determinant NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 46 52 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 46 53 epidemic epidemic NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 46 54 size size NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 46 55 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 47 1 One one CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 47 2 summary summary NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 47 3 measure measure NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 47 4 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 47 5 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 47 6 implementation implementation NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 47 7 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 47 8 control control NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 47 9 measures measure NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 47 10 is be VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 47 11 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 47 12 Government Government NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 47 13 Response Response NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 47 14 Stringency Stringency NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 47 15 Index Index NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 47 16 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 47 17 a a DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 47 18 composite composite JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 47 19 metric metric NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 47 20 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 47 21 lockdown lockdown NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 47 22 policies policy NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 47 23 based base VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 47 24 on on IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 47 25 nine nine CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 47 26 indicators indicator NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 47 27 including include VBG cord-315587-jelh8o3v 47 28 school school NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 47 29 closures closure NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 47 30 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 47 31 workplace workplace NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 47 32 closures closure NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 47 33 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 47 34 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 47 35 travel travel NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 47 36 bans ban NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 47 37 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 47 38 with with IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 47 39 a a DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 47 40 score score NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 47 41 for for IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 47 42 each each DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 47 43 country country NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 47 44 varying vary VBG cord-315587-jelh8o3v 47 45 between between IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 47 46 0 0 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 47 47 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 47 48 100 100 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 47 49 % % NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 47 50 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 47 51 6 6 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 47 52 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 47 53 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 48 1 Figure figure NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 48 2 4 4 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 48 3 shows show VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 48 4 how how WRB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 48 5 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 48 6 total total JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 48 7 number number NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 48 8 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 48 9 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 48 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 48 11 D D NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 48 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 48 13 reported report VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 48 14 from from IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 48 15 each each DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 48 16 country country NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 48 17 up up IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 48 18 to to TO cord-315587-jelh8o3v 48 19 20 20 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 48 20 June June NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 48 21 increased increase VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 48 22 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 48 23 relation relation NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 48 24 to to IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 48 25 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 48 26 cumulative cumulative JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 48 27 number number NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 48 28 that that WDT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 48 29 had have VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 48 30 been be VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 48 31 reported report VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 48 32 when when WRB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 48 33 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 48 34 Stringency Stringency NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 48 35 Index Index NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 48 36 reached reach VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 48 37 or or CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 48 38 exceeded exceed VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 48 39 70 70 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 48 40 % % NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 48 41 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 48 42 DL DL NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 48 43 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 48 44 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 49 1 The the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 49 2 form form NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 49 3 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 49 4 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 49 5 power power NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 49 6 relationship relationship NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 49 7 is be VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 49 8 ≈ ≈ NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 49 9 200 200 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 49 10 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 49 11 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 50 1 The the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 50 2 geometric geometric JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 50 3 mean mean JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 50 4 ratio ratio NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 50 5 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 50 6 D d NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 50 7 to to IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 50 8 DL DL NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 50 9 is be VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 50 10 128 128 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 50 11 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 50 12 both both DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 50 13 model model NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 50 14 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 50 15 data datum NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 50 16 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 50 17 but but CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 50 18 with with IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 50 19 greater great JJR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 50 20 variation variation NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 50 21 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 50 22 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 50 23 data datum NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 50 24 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 50 25 95%CI 95%ci CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 50 26 155 155 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 50 27 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 50 28 than than IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 50 29 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 50 30 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 50 31 fitted fit VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 50 32 model model NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 50 33 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 50 34 95%CI 95%ci CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 50 35 19 19 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 50 36 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 50 37 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 51 1 Based base VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 51 2 on on IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 51 3 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 51 4 model model NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 51 5 relationship relationship NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 51 6 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 51 7 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 51 8 expected expect VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 51 9 number number NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 51 10 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 51 11 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 51 12 varied vary VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 51 13 from from IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 51 14 60 60 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 51 15 to to TO cord-315587-jelh8o3v 51 16 200 200 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 51 17 times time NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 51 18 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 51 19 number number NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 51 20 at at IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 51 21 lockdown lockdown NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 51 22 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 51 23 as as IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 51 24 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 51 25 latter latter JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 51 26 ranged range VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 51 27 from from IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 51 28 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 51 29 highest high JJS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 51 30 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 51 31 more more JJR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 51 32 than than IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 51 33 300 300 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 51 34 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 51 35 Sweden Sweden NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 51 36 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 51 37 to to IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 51 38 lowest low JJS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 51 39 values value NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 51 40 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 51 41 zero zero CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 51 42 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 51 43 e.g. e.g. JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 51 44 Croatia Croatia NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 51 45 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 51 46 Romania Romania NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 51 47 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 51 48 Slovenia Slovenia NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 51 49 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 51 50 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 52 1 To to TO cord-315587-jelh8o3v 52 2 illustrate illustrate VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 52 3 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 52 4 differences difference NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 52 5 between between IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 52 6 countries country NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 52 7 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 52 8 Luxembourg Luxembourg NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 52 9 achieved achieve VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 52 10 a a DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 52 11 Stringency stringency NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 52 12 score score NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 52 13 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 52 14 72 72 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 52 15 % % NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 52 16 on on IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 52 17 16 16 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 52 18 March March NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 52 19 having have VBG cord-315587-jelh8o3v 52 20 recorded record VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 52 21 only only RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 52 22 1 1 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 52 23 death death NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 52 24 ; ; : cord-315587-jelh8o3v 52 25 by by IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 52 26 20 20 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 52 27 June June NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 52 28 they -PRON- PRP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 52 29 had have VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 52 30 recorded record VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 52 31 110 110 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 52 32 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 52 33 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 53 1 Spain Spain NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 53 2 achieved achieve VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 53 3 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 53 4 same same JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 53 5 Stringency stringency NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 53 6 score score NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 53 7 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 53 8 72 72 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 53 9 % % NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 53 10 a a DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 53 11 day day NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 53 12 later later RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 53 13 on on IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 53 14 17 17 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 53 15 March March NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 53 16 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 53 17 having have VBG cord-315587-jelh8o3v 53 18 recorded record VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 53 19 309 309 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 53 20 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 53 21 ; ; : cord-315587-jelh8o3v 53 22 by by IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 53 23 20 20 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 53 24 June June NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 53 25 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 53 26 Spain Spain NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 53 27 had have VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 53 28 recorded record VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 53 29 27,000 27,000 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 53 30 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 53 31 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 54 1 The the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 54 2 outlying outlying JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 54 3 countries country NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 54 4 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 54 5 Figure figure NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 54 6 4 4 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 54 7 raise raise VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 54 8 questions question NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 54 9 for for IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 54 10 further further JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 54 11 investigation investigation NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 54 12 : : : cord-315587-jelh8o3v 54 13 Belgium Belgium NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 54 14 locked lock VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 54 15 down down RP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 54 16 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 54 17 73 73 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 54 18 % % NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 54 19 Stringency stringency NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 54 20 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 54 21 on on IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 54 22 18 18 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 54 23 March March NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 54 24 with with IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 54 25 5 5 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 54 26 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 54 27 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 54 28 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 54 29 yet yet RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 54 30 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 54 31 epidemic epidemic NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 54 32 grew grow VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 54 33 faster fast RBR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 54 34 than than IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 54 35 average average JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 54 36 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 54 37 0.34 0.34 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 54 38 / / SYM cord-315587-jelh8o3v 54 39 day day NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 54 40 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 54 41 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 54 42 for for IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 54 43 longer long JJR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 54 44 than than IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 54 45 average average JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 54 46 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 54 47 34 34 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 54 48 days day NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 54 49 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 54 50 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 54 51 generating generate VBG cord-315587-jelh8o3v 54 52 a a DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 54 53 relatively relatively RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 54 54 high high JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 54 55 number number NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 54 56 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 54 57 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 54 58 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 55 1 Unusually unusually RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 55 2 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 55 3 Belgium Belgium NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 55 4 has have VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 55 5 reported report VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 55 6 more more JJR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 55 7 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 55 8 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 55 9 than than IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 55 10 all all DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 55 11 excess excess JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 55 12 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 55 13 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 55 14 but but CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 55 15 only only RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 55 16 around around IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 55 17 15 15 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 55 18 % % NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 55 19 more more JJR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 55 20 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 55 21 Supplementary Supplementary NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 55 22 Materials Materials NNPS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 55 23 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 55 24 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 55 25 whereas whereas IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 55 26 observed observe VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 55 27 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 55 28 expected expect VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 55 29 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 55 30 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 55 31 differ differ VBP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 55 32 by by IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 55 33 a a DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 55 34 factor factor NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 55 35 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 55 36 10 10 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 55 37 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 55 38 Figure Figure NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 55 39 4 4 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 55 40 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 56 1 Sweden Sweden NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 56 2 never never RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 56 3 achieved achieve VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 56 4 a a DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 56 5 Stringency stringency NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 56 6 score score NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 56 7 as as RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 56 8 high high JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 56 9 as as IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 56 10 70 70 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 56 11 % % NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 56 12 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 56 13 maximum maximum JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 56 14 46 46 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 56 15 % % NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 56 16 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 56 17 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 56 18 reported report VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 56 19 a a DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 56 20 relatively relatively RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 56 21 large large JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 56 22 number number NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 56 23 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 56 24 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 56 25 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 56 26 4900 4900 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 56 27 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 56 28 among among IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 56 29 Scandinavian scandinavian JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 56 30 countries country NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 56 31 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 56 32 fewer few JJR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 56 33 than than IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 56 34 600 600 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 56 35 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 56 36 each each DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 56 37 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 56 38 Denmark Denmark NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 56 39 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 56 40 Norway Norway NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 56 41 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 56 42 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 57 1 However however RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 57 2 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 57 3 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 57 4 general general JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 57 5 relationship relationship NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 57 6 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 57 7 Figure Figure NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 57 8 4 4 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 57 9 predicts predict VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 57 10 a a DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 57 11 far far RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 57 12 higher high JJR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 57 13 death death NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 57 14 toll toll NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 57 15 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 58 1 The the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 58 2 reasons reason NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 58 3 why why WRB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 58 4 Belgium Belgium NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 58 5 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 58 6 Sweden Sweden NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 58 7 do do VBP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 58 8 not not RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 58 9 conform conform VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 58 10 to to IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 58 11 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 58 12 general general JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 58 13 pattern pattern NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 58 14 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 58 15 Figure figure NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 58 16 4 4 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 58 17 remain remain VBP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 58 18 to to TO cord-315587-jelh8o3v 58 19 be be VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 58 20 determined determine VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 58 21 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 59 1 In in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 59 2 conclusion conclusion NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 59 3 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 59 4 this this DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 59 5 analysis analysis NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 59 6 shows show VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 59 7 that that IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 59 8 European european JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 59 9 countries country NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 59 10 reporting report VBG cord-315587-jelh8o3v 59 11 fewer few JJR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 59 12 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 59 13 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 59 14 had have VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 59 15 flatter flat JJR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 59 16 epidemic epidemic NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 59 17 curves curve NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 59 18 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 59 19 Figure figure NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 59 20 2 2 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 59 21 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 59 22 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 59 23 but but CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 59 24 not not RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 59 25 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 59 26 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 59 27 way way NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 59 28 anticipated anticipate VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 59 29 by by IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 59 30 simple simple JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 59 31 epidemic epidemic NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 59 32 theory theory NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 59 33 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 59 34 Figure figure NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 59 35 1 1 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 59 36 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 59 37 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 60 1 Countries country NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 60 2 with with IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 60 3 fewer few JJR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 60 4 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 60 5 overall overall RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 60 6 did do VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 60 7 have have VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 60 8 smaller small JJR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 60 9 peak peak NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 60 10 death death NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 60 11 rates rate NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 60 12 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 60 13 as as IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 60 14 expected expect VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 60 15 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 60 16 but but CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 60 17 they -PRON- PRP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 60 18 suffered suffer VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 60 19 fewer few JJR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 60 20 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 60 21 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 60 22 due due JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 60 23 to to IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 60 24 shorter short JJR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 60 25 rather rather RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 60 26 than than IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 60 27 longer long JJR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 60 28 periods period NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 60 29 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 60 30 epidemic epidemic NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 60 31 growth growth NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 60 32 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 61 1 In in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 61 2 these these DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 61 3 comparisons comparison NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 61 4 between between IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 61 5 countries country NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 61 6 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 61 7 longer long JJR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 61 8 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 61 9 were be VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 61 10 generally generally RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 61 11 larger large JJR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 61 12 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 61 13 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 62 1 The the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 62 2 cross cross JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 62 3 - - JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 62 4 country country JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 62 5 comparison comparison NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 62 6 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 62 7 Figure figure NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 62 8 4 4 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 62 9 shows show VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 62 10 that that IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 62 11 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 62 12 overall overall JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 62 13 death death NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 62 14 toll toll NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 62 15 was be VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 62 16 lower low JJR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 62 17 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 62 18 countries country NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 62 19 that that WDT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 62 20 locked lock VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 62 21 down down RP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 62 22 earlier early RBR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 62 23 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 62 24 when when WRB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 62 25 fewer few JJR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 62 26 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 62 27 had have VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 62 28 been be VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 62 29 reported report VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 62 30 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 63 1 But but CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 63 2 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 63 3 inference inference NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 63 4 that that IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 63 5 a a DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 63 6 country country NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 63 7 with with IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 63 8 high high JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 63 9 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 63 10 mortality mortality NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 63 11 could could MD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 63 12 have have VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 63 13 been be VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 63 14 like like IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 63 15 a a DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 63 16 country country NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 63 17 with with IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 63 18 a a DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 63 19 low low JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 63 20 mortality mortality NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 63 21 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 63 22 had have VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 63 23 it -PRON- PRP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 63 24 acted act VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 63 25 sooner soon RBR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 63 26 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 63 27 comes come VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 63 28 with with IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 63 29 a a DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 63 30 caution caution NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 63 31 : : : cord-315587-jelh8o3v 63 32 controlling control VBG cord-315587-jelh8o3v 63 33 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 63 34 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 63 35 through through IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 63 36 early early JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 63 37 intervention intervention NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 63 38 appears appear VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 63 39 to to TO cord-315587-jelh8o3v 63 40 be be VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 63 41 harder hard JJR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 63 42 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 63 43 countries country NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 63 44 with with IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 63 45 larger large JJR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 63 46 populations population NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 63 47 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 63 48 for for IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 63 49 reasons reason NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 63 50 that that WDT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 63 51 are be VBP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 63 52 not not RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 63 53 explained explain VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 63 54 by by IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 63 55 this this DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 63 56 study study NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 63 57 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 64 1 Notice notice VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 64 2 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 64 3 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 64 4 addition addition NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 64 5 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 64 6 that that DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 64 7 epidemic epidemic NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 64 8 expansion expansion NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 64 9 was be VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 64 10 greater great JJR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 64 11 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 64 12 more more RBR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 64 13 populous populous JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 64 14 countries country NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 64 15 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 64 16 not not RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 64 17 because because IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 64 18 they -PRON- PRP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 64 19 imported import VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 64 20 more more JJR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 64 21 infections infection NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 64 22 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 64 23 a a DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 64 24 scaling scale VBG cord-315587-jelh8o3v 64 25 factor factor NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 64 26 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 64 27 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 64 28 though though IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 64 29 that that DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 64 30 might may MD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 64 31 also also RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 64 32 be be VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 64 33 true true JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 64 34 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 64 35 7 7 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 64 36 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 64 37 8) 8) NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 64 38 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 64 39 but but CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 64 40 rather rather RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 64 41 because because IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 64 42 they -PRON- PRP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 64 43 had have VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 64 44 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 64 45 that that WDT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 64 46 grew grow VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 64 47 for for IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 64 48 longer long RBR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 64 49 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 64 50 a a DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 64 51 multiplication multiplication NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 64 52 factor factor NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 64 53 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 64 54 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 65 1 Taken take VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 65 2 together together RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 65 3 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 65 4 these these DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 65 5 data datum NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 65 6 expose expose VBP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 65 7 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 65 8 perils peril NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 65 9 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 65 10 delayed delay VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 65 11 action action NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 65 12 during during IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 65 13 an an DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 65 14 epidemic epidemic NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 65 15 with with IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 65 16 an an DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 65 17 average average JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 65 18 doubling double VBG cord-315587-jelh8o3v 65 19 time time NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 65 20 as as RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 65 21 short short JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 65 22 as as IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 65 23 3 3 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 65 24 days day NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 65 25 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 66 1 At at IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 66 2 this this DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 66 3 rate rate NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 66 4 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 66 5 growth growth NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 66 6 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 66 7 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 66 8 daily daily JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 66 9 death death NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 66 10 toll toll NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 66 11 would would MD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 66 12 have have VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 66 13 increased increase VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 66 14 by by IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 66 15 a a DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 66 16 factor factor NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 66 17 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 66 18 ten ten CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 66 19 within within IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 66 20 9 9 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 66 21 days day NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 66 22 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 66 23 which which WDT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 66 24 is be VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 66 25 shorter short JJR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 66 26 than than IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 66 27 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 66 28 average average JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 66 29 time time NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 66 30 delay delay NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 66 31 from from IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 66 32 one one CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 66 33 death death NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 66 34 to to IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 66 35 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 66 36 time time NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 66 37 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 66 38 lockdown lockdown NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 66 39 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 66 40 11 11 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 66 41 days day NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 66 42 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 66 43 ranging range VBG cord-315587-jelh8o3v 66 44 from from IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 66 45 -6 -6 JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 66 46 days day NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 66 47 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 66 48 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 66 49 Czech Czech NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 66 50 Republic Republic NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 66 51 to to IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 66 52 +43 +43 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 66 53 days day NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 66 54 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 66 55 Sweden Sweden NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 66 56 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 66 57 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 67 1 In in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 67 2 effect effect NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 67 3 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 67 4 a a DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 67 5 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 67 6 epidemic epidemic NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 67 7 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 67 8 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 67 9 average average JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 67 10 European european JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 67 11 country country NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 67 12 would would MD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 67 13 have have VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 67 14 expanded expand VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 67 15 more more JJR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 67 16 than than IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 67 17 ten ten CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 67 18 - - HYPH cord-315587-jelh8o3v 67 19 fold fold NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 67 20 within within IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 67 21 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 67 22 time time NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 67 23 it -PRON- PRP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 67 24 took take VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 67 25 to to TO cord-315587-jelh8o3v 67 26 impose impose VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 67 27 lockdown lockdown NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 67 28 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 68 1 The the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 68 2 need need NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 68 3 for for IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 68 4 speed speed NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 68 5 is be VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 68 6 expected expect VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 68 7 to to TO cord-315587-jelh8o3v 68 8 apply apply VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 68 9 to to IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 68 10 resurgent resurgent JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 68 11 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 68 12 too too RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 68 13 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 69 1 Behind behind IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 69 2 this this DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 69 3 analysis analysis NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 69 4 lies lie VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 69 5 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 69 6 supposition supposition NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 69 7 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 69 8 supported support VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 69 9 by by IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 69 10 antibody antibody NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 69 11 surveys survey NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 69 12 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 69 13 9 9 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 69 14 - - SYM cord-315587-jelh8o3v 69 15 11 11 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 69 16 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 69 17 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 69 18 that that IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 69 19 only only RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 69 20 a a DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 69 21 small small JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 69 22 fraction fraction NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 69 23 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 69 24 Europe Europe NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 69 25 's 's POS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 69 26 population population NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 69 27 as as IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 69 28 been be VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 69 29 exposed expose VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 69 30 to to IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 69 31 infection infection NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 69 32 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 69 33 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 69 34 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 69 35 order order NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 69 36 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 69 37 5 5 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 69 38 - - SYM cord-315587-jelh8o3v 69 39 10 10 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 69 40 % % NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 69 41 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 69 42 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 69 43 albeit albeit IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 69 44 a a DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 69 45 fraction fraction NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 69 46 that that WDT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 69 47 varies vary VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 69 48 among among IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 69 49 countries country NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 69 50 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 70 1 Like like IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 70 2 others other NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 70 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 70 4 1 1 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 70 5 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 70 6 3 3 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 70 7 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 70 8 12 12 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 70 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 70 10 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 70 11 we -PRON- PRP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 70 12 assume assume VBP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 70 13 that that IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 70 14 new new JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 70 15 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 70 16 outbreaks outbreak NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 70 17 will will MD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 70 18 threaten threaten VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 70 19 large large JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 70 20 numbers number NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 70 21 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 70 22 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 70 23 people people NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 70 24 across across IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 70 25 Europe Europe NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 70 26 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 70 27 a a DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 70 28 view view NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 70 29 reinforced reinforce VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 70 30 by by IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 70 31 renewed renew VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 70 32 outbreaks outbreak NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 70 33 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 70 34 several several JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 70 35 countries country NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 70 36 during during IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 70 37 June June NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 70 38 2020 2020 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 70 39 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 71 1 Facing face VBG cord-315587-jelh8o3v 71 2 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 71 3 risk risk NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 71 4 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 71 5 further further JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 71 6 outbreaks outbreak NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 71 7 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 71 8 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 71 9 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 71 10 this this DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 71 11 analysis analysis NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 71 12 points point VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 71 13 to to IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 71 14 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 71 15 benefits benefit NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 71 16 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 71 17 taking take VBG cord-315587-jelh8o3v 71 18 action action NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 71 19 without without IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 71 20 delay delay NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 71 21 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 72 1 European European NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 72 2 Centre Centre NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 72 3 for for IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 72 4 Disease Disease NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 72 5 Prevention Prevention NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 72 6 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 72 7 Control Control NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 72 8 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 72 9 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 72 10 . . NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 72 11 2020 2020 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 72 12 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 73 1 All all DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 73 2 rights right NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 73 3 reserved reserve VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 73 4 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 74 1 No no DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 74 2 reuse reuse NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 74 3 allowed allow VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 74 4 without without IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 74 5 permission permission NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 74 6 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 75 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 75 2 which which WDT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 75 3 was be VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 75 4 not not RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 75 5 certified certify VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 75 6 by by IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 75 7 peer peer NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 75 8 review review NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 75 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 75 10 is be VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 75 11 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 75 12 author author NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 75 13 / / SYM cord-315587-jelh8o3v 75 14 funder funder NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 75 15 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 75 16 who who WP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 75 17 has have VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 75 18 granted grant VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 75 19 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 75 20 a a DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 75 21 license license NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 75 22 to to TO cord-315587-jelh8o3v 75 23 display display VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 75 24 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 75 25 preprint preprint NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 75 26 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 75 27 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 75 28 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 76 1 The the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 76 2 copyright copyright NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 76 3 holder holder NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 76 4 for for IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 76 5 this this DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 76 6 preprint preprint NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 76 7 this this DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 76 8 version version NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 76 9 posted post VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 76 10 June June NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 76 11 29 29 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 76 12 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 76 13 2020 2020 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 76 14 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 76 15 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 77 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.26.20131144 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.26.20131144 NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 77 2 doi doi NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 77 3 : : : cord-315587-jelh8o3v 78 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 78 2 preprint preprint NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 78 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 78 4 which which WDT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 78 5 was be VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 78 6 not not RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 78 7 certified certify VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 78 8 by by IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 78 9 peer peer NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 78 10 review review NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 78 11 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 78 12 is be VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 78 13 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 78 14 author author NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 78 15 / / SYM cord-315587-jelh8o3v 78 16 funder funder NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 78 17 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 78 18 who who WP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 78 19 has have VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 78 20 granted grant VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 78 21 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 78 22 a a DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 78 23 license license NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 78 24 to to TO cord-315587-jelh8o3v 78 25 display display VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 78 26 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 78 27 preprint preprint NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 78 28 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 78 29 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 78 30 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 79 1 The the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 79 2 copyright copyright NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 79 3 holder holder NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 79 4 for for IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 79 5 this this DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 79 6 preprint preprint NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 79 7 this this DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 79 8 version version NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 79 9 posted post VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 79 10 June June NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 79 11 29 29 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 79 12 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 79 13 2020 2020 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 79 14 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 79 15 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 80 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.26.20131144 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.26.20131144 NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 80 2 doi doi NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 80 3 : : : cord-315587-jelh8o3v 81 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 81 2 preprint preprint NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 82 1 All all DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 82 2 rights right NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 82 3 reserved reserve VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 82 4 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 83 1 No no DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 83 2 reuse reuse NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 83 3 allowed allow VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 83 4 without without IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 83 5 permission permission NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 83 6 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 84 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 84 2 which which WDT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 84 3 was be VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 84 4 not not RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 84 5 certified certify VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 84 6 by by IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 84 7 peer peer NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 84 8 review review NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 84 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 84 10 is be VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 84 11 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 84 12 author author NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 84 13 / / SYM cord-315587-jelh8o3v 84 14 funder funder NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 84 15 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 84 16 who who WP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 84 17 has have VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 84 18 granted grant VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 84 19 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 84 20 a a DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 84 21 license license NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 84 22 to to TO cord-315587-jelh8o3v 84 23 display display VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 84 24 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 84 25 preprint preprint NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 84 26 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 84 27 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 84 28 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 85 1 The the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 85 2 copyright copyright NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 85 3 holder holder NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 85 4 for for IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 85 5 this this DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 85 6 preprint preprint NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 85 7 this this DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 85 8 version version NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 85 9 posted post VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 85 10 June June NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 85 11 29 29 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 85 12 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 85 13 2020 2020 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 85 14 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 86 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 86 2 which which WDT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 86 3 was be VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 86 4 not not RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 86 5 certified certify VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 86 6 by by IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 86 7 peer peer NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 86 8 review review NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 86 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 86 10 is be VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 86 11 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 86 12 author author NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 86 13 / / SYM cord-315587-jelh8o3v 86 14 funder funder NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 86 15 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 86 16 who who WP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 86 17 has have VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 86 18 granted grant VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 86 19 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 86 20 a a DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 86 21 license license NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 86 22 to to TO cord-315587-jelh8o3v 86 23 display display VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 86 24 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 86 25 preprint preprint NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 86 26 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 86 27 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 86 28 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 87 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 87 2 which which WDT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 87 3 was be VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 87 4 not not RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 87 5 certified certify VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 87 6 by by IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 87 7 peer peer NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 87 8 review review NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 87 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 87 10 is be VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 87 11 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 87 12 author author NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 87 13 / / SYM cord-315587-jelh8o3v 87 14 funder funder NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 87 15 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 87 16 who who WP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 87 17 has have VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 87 18 granted grant VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 87 19 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 87 20 a a DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 87 21 license license NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 87 22 to to TO cord-315587-jelh8o3v 87 23 display display VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 87 24 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 87 25 preprint preprint NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 87 26 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 87 27 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 87 28 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 88 1 The the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 88 2 copyright copyright NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 88 3 holder holder NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 88 4 for for IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 88 5 this this DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 88 6 preprint preprint NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 88 7 this this DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 88 8 version version NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 88 9 posted post VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 88 10 June June NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 88 11 29 29 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 88 12 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 88 13 2020 2020 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 88 14 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 88 15 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 89 1 The the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 89 2 scale scale NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 89 3 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 89 4 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 89 5 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 89 6 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 89 7 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 89 8 across across IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 89 9 Europe Europe NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 90 1 This this DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 90 2 supplement supplement NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 90 3 to to IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 90 4 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 90 5 main main JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 90 6 text text NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 90 7 provides provide VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 90 8 data data NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 90 9 sources source NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 90 10 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 90 11 methods method NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 90 12 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 90 13 data datum NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 90 14 analysis analysis NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 90 15 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 90 16 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 90 17 mathematical mathematical JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 90 18 model model NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 90 19 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 90 20 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 90 21 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 90 22 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 90 23 additional additional JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 90 24 data datum NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 90 25 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 90 26 Figs fig NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 90 27 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 91 1 This this DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 91 2 analysis analysis NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 91 3 is be VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 91 4 based base VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 91 5 on on IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 91 6 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 91 7 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 91 8 reported report VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 91 9 from from IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 91 10 26 26 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 91 11 European european JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 91 12 countries country NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 91 13 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 91 14 for for IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 91 15 which which WDT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 91 16 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 91 17 abbreviations abbreviation NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 91 18 are be VBP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 91 19 tabulated tabulate VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 91 20 below below IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 91 21 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 91 22 1 1 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 91 23 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 91 24 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 92 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 92 2 used use VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 92 3 reported report VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 92 4 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 92 5 because because IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 92 6 they -PRON- PRP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 92 7 are be VBP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 92 8 likely likely JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 92 9 to to TO cord-315587-jelh8o3v 92 10 be be VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 92 11 more more RBR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 92 12 accurate accurate JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 92 13 than than IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 92 14 reported report VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 92 15 cases case NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 92 16 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 92 17 both both CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 92 18 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 92 19 absolute absolute JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 92 20 magnitude magnitude NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 92 21 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 92 22 scale scale NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 92 23 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 92 24 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 92 25 epidemic epidemic NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 92 26 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 92 27 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 92 28 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 92 29 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 92 30 distribution distribution NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 92 31 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 92 32 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 92 33 through through IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 92 34 time time NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 92 35 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 92 36 shape shape NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 92 37 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 92 38 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 92 39 epidemic epidemic NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 92 40 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 92 41 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 93 1 However however RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 93 2 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 93 3 a a DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 93 4 comparison comparison NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 93 5 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 93 6 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 93 7 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 93 8 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 93 9 all all DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 93 10 excess excess JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 93 11 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 93 12 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 93 13 Switzerland Switzerland NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 93 14 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 93 15 Fig Fig NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 93 16 1 1 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 93 17 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 93 18 Fig Fig NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 93 19 S3 S3 NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 93 20 below below IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 93 21 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 93 22 questions question NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 93 23 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 93 24 completeness completeness NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 93 25 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 93 26 death death NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 93 27 reports report NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 93 28 at at IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 93 29 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 93 30 peak peak NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 93 31 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 93 32 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 93 33 epidemic epidemic NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 93 34 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 94 1 Nevertheless nevertheless RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 94 2 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 94 3 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 94 4 large large JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 94 5 differences difference NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 94 6 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 94 7 numbers number NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 94 8 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 94 9 reported report VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 94 10 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 94 11 between between IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 94 12 countries country NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 94 13 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 94 14 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 94 15 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 94 16 number number NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 94 17 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 94 18 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 94 19 per per IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 94 20 capita capita NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 94 21 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 94 22 are be VBP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 94 23 very very RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 94 24 unlikely unlikely JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 94 25 to to TO cord-315587-jelh8o3v 94 26 be be VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 94 27 due due JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 94 28 solely solely RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 94 29 to to IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 94 30 differences difference NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 94 31 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 94 32 diagnostic diagnostic JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 94 33 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 94 34 reporting reporting NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 94 35 methods method NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 94 36 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 94 37 2 2 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 94 38 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 94 39 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 95 1 Indeed indeed RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 95 2 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 95 3 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 95 4 clear clear JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 95 5 patterns pattern NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 95 6 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 95 7 association association NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 95 8 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 95 9 Figs Figs NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 95 10 3 3 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 95 11 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 95 12 4 4 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 95 13 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 95 14 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 95 15 main main JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 95 16 text text NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 95 17 suggest suggest VBP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 95 18 that that IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 95 19 both both CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 95 20 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 95 21 data datum NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 95 22 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 95 23 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 95 24 empirical empirical JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 95 25 model model NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 95 26 portray portray VBP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 95 27 real real JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 95 28 effects effect NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 95 29 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 95 30 rather rather RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 95 31 than than IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 95 32 artefacts artefact NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 95 33 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 95 34 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 95 35 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 95 36 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 95 37 across across IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 95 38 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 95 39 26 26 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 95 40 countries country NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 95 41 studied study VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 95 42 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 95 43 this this DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 95 44 investigation investigation NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 95 45 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 1 Fig fig NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 2 1 1 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 3 was be VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 4 constructed construct VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 5 with with IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 6 a a DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 7 compartmental compartmental JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 8 model model NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 9 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 10 SARS SARS NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 11 CoV-2 CoV-2 NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 12 transmission transmission NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 13 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 14 framed frame VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 15 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 16 ordinary ordinary JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 17 differential differential JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 18 equations equation NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 19 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 20 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 21 representing represent VBG cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 22 a a DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 23 homogeneously homogeneously RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 24 mixing mix VBG cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 25 population population NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 26 divided divide VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 27 among among IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 28 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 29 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 30 exposed expose VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 31 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 32 infectious infectious JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 33 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 34 recovered recover VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 35 or or CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 36 died die VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 37 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 38 SEIR SEIR NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 39 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 40 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 41 as as IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 42 follows follow VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 43 : : : cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 44 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 45 which which WDT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 46 was be VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 47 not not RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 48 certified certify VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 49 by by IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 50 peer peer NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 51 review review NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 52 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 53 is be VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 54 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 55 author author NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 56 / / SYM cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 57 funder funder NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 58 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 59 who who WP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 60 has have VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 61 granted grant VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 62 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 63 a a DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 64 license license NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 65 to to TO cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 66 display display VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 67 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 68 preprint preprint NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 69 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 70 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 96 71 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 97 1 The the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 97 2 copyright copyright NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 97 3 holder holder NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 97 4 for for IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 97 5 this this DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 97 6 preprint preprint NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 97 7 this this DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 97 8 version version NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 97 9 posted post VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 97 10 June June NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 97 11 29 29 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 97 12 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 97 13 2020 2020 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 97 14 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 97 15 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 98 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.26.20131144 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.26.20131144 NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 98 2 doi doi NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 98 3 : : : cord-315587-jelh8o3v 99 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 99 2 preprint preprint NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 99 3 Fig Fig NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 99 4 S1 S1 NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 99 5 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 100 1 The the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 100 2 SEIR SEIR NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 100 3 model model NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 100 4 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 101 1 The the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 101 2 compartments compartment NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 101 3 denote denote VBP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 101 4 those those DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 101 5 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 101 6 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 101 7 population population NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 101 8 that that WDT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 101 9 are be VBP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 101 10 Susceptible susceptible JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 101 11 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 101 12 Exposed exposed JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 101 13 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 101 14 Infected Infected NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 101 15 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 101 16 Recovered recover VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 101 17 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 102 1 The the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 102 2 variables variable NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 102 3 S s NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 102 4 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 102 5 E E NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 102 6 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 102 7 I -PRON- PRP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 102 8 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 102 9 R R NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 102 10 satisfy satisfy VBP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 102 11 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 102 12 ordinary ordinary JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 102 13 differential differential JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 102 14 equations equation NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 102 15 : : : cord-315587-jelh8o3v 102 16 A a DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 102 17 convenient convenient JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 102 18 recent recent JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 102 19 reference reference NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 102 20 is be VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 102 21 Ma Ma NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 102 22 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 102 23 3 3 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 102 24 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 102 25 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 102 26 though though IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 102 27 we -PRON- PRP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 102 28 have have VBP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 102 29 adjusted adjust VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 102 30 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 102 31 notation notation NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 102 32 here here RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 102 33 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 102 34 reserving reserve VBG cord-315587-jelh8o3v 102 35 certain certain JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 102 36 symbols symbol NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 102 37 for for IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 102 38 use use NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 102 39 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 102 40 other other JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 102 41 standard standard JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 102 42 ways way NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 102 43 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 103 1 As as IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 103 2 this this DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 103 3 discussion discussion NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 103 4 focuses focus VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 103 5 on on IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 103 6 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 103 7 number number NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 103 8 that that WDT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 103 9 die die VBP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 103 10 due due JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 103 11 to to IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 103 12 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 103 13 epidemic epidemic NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 103 14 we -PRON- PRP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 103 15 adjust adjust VBP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 103 16 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 103 17 SEIR SEIR NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 103 18 model model NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 103 19 by by IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 103 20 splitting split VBG cord-315587-jelh8o3v 103 21 R r NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 103 22 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 103 23 those those DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 103 24 that that WDT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 103 25 recover recover VBP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 103 26 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 103 27 to to TO cord-315587-jelh8o3v 103 28 distinguish distinguish VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 103 29 between between IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 103 30 Z z NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 103 31 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 103 32 those those DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 103 33 that that WDT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 103 34 die die VBP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 103 35 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 103 36 from from IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 103 37 those those DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 103 38 that that WDT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 103 39 recover recover VBP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 103 40 well well RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 103 41 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 104 1 This this DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 104 2 arrangement arrangement NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 104 3 is be VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 104 4 depicted depict VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 104 5 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 104 6 Fig Fig NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 104 7 S2 S2 NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 104 8 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 104 9 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 104 10 is be VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 104 11 a a DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 104 12 simplified simplified JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 104 13 version version NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 104 14 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 104 15 that that DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 104 16 used use VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 104 17 by by IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 104 18 Dagpunar Dagpunar NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 104 19 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 104 20 4 4 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 104 21 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 104 22 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 104 23 which which WDT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 104 24 discusses discuss VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 104 25 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 104 26 outcomes outcome NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 104 27 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 104 28 hospitalization hospitalization NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 104 29 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 105 1 Fig Fig NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 105 2 S2 S2 NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 105 3 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 106 1 Adjustment adjustment NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 106 2 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 106 3 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 106 4 SEIR SEIR NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 106 5 model model NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 106 6 where where WRB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 106 7 R r NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 106 8 is be VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 106 9 divided divide VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 106 10 into into IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 106 11 two two CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 106 12 compartments compartment NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 106 13 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 106 14 R r NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 106 15 \ \ NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 106 16 Z z NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 106 17 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 106 18 those those DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 106 19 that that WDT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 106 20 recover recover VBP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 106 21 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 106 22 Z z NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 106 23 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 106 24 those those DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 106 25 that that WDT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 106 26 die die VBP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 107 1 ; ; : cord-315587-jelh8o3v 107 2 where where WRB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 107 3 is be VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 107 4 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 107 5 proportion proportion NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 107 6 that that WDT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 107 7 recover recover VBP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 107 8 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 108 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 108 2 allow allow VBP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 108 3 this this DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 108 4 adjusted adjust VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 108 5 SEIR SEIR NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 108 6 model model NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 108 7 to to TO cord-315587-jelh8o3v 108 8 depend depend VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 108 9 on on IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 108 10 certain certain JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 108 11 parameters parameter NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 108 12 with with IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 108 13 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 108 14 understanding understanding NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 108 15 that that IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 108 16 once once IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 108 17 these these DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 108 18 parameters parameter NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 108 19 are be VBP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 108 20 known know VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 108 21 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 108 22 behaviour behaviour NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 108 23 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 108 24 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 108 25 SEIR SEIR NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 108 26 model model NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 108 27 is be VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 108 28 completely completely RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 108 29 specified specify VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 108 30 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 109 1 There there EX cord-315587-jelh8o3v 109 2 are be VBP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 109 3 nine nine CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 109 4 parameters parameter NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 109 5 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 109 6 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 109 7 model model NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 109 8 : : : cord-315587-jelh8o3v 109 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 109 10 which which WDT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 109 11 was be VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 109 12 not not RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 109 13 certified certify VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 109 14 by by IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 109 15 peer peer NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 109 16 review review NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 109 17 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 109 18 is be VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 109 19 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 109 20 author author NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 109 21 / / SYM cord-315587-jelh8o3v 109 22 funder funder NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 109 23 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 109 24 who who WP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 109 25 has have VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 109 26 granted grant VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 109 27 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 109 28 a a DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 109 29 license license NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 109 30 to to TO cord-315587-jelh8o3v 109 31 display display VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 109 32 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 109 33 preprint preprint NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 109 34 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 109 35 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 109 36 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 110 1 The the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 110 2 copyright copyright NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 110 3 holder holder NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 110 4 for for IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 110 5 this this DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 110 6 preprint preprint NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 110 7 this this DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 110 8 version version NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 110 9 posted post VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 110 10 June June NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 110 11 29 29 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 110 12 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 110 13 2020 2020 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 110 14 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 110 15 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 111 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.26.20131144 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.26.20131144 NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 111 2 doi doi NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 111 3 : : : cord-315587-jelh8o3v 112 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 112 2 preprint preprint NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 112 3 number number NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 112 4 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 112 5 days day NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 112 6 from from IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 112 7 start start NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 112 8 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 112 9 epidemic epidemic NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 112 10 before before IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 112 11 observations observation NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 112 12 began begin VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 112 13 5.351 5.351 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 112 14 initial initial JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 112 15 number number NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 112 16 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 112 17 exposed expose VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 112 18 The the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 112 19 last last JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 112 20 parameter parameter NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 112 21 is be VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 112 22 used use VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 112 23 to to TO cord-315587-jelh8o3v 112 24 modify modify VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 112 25 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 112 26 last last JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 112 27 differential differential JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 112 28 equation equation NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 112 29 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 112 30 4 4 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 112 31 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 112 32 to to IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 112 33 : : : cord-315587-jelh8o3v 113 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 113 2 denote denote VBP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 113 3 by by IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 113 4 = = SYM cord-315587-jelh8o3v 113 5 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 113 6 1 1 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 113 7 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 113 8 2 2 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 113 9 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 113 10 … … NFP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 113 11 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 113 12 9 9 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 113 13 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 113 14 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 113 15 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 113 16 vector vector NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 113 17 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 113 18 parameters parameter NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 113 19 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 114 1 With with IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 114 2 given give VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 114 3 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 114 4 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 114 5 four four CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 114 6 differential differential JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 114 7 equations equation NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 114 8 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 114 9 1 1 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 114 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 114 11 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 114 12 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 114 13 2 2 LS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 114 14 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 114 15 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 114 16 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 114 17 3 3 LS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 114 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 114 19 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 114 20 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 114 21 5 5 LS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 114 22 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 114 23 _SP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 114 24 where where WRB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 114 25 t t NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 114 26 is be VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 114 27 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 114 28 day day NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 114 29 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 114 30 N N NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 114 31 is be VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 114 32 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 114 33 number number NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 114 34 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 114 35 days day NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 114 36 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 114 37 interest interest NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 114 38 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 115 1 However however RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 115 2 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 115 3 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 115 4 parameters parameter NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 115 5 are be VBP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 115 6 assumed assume VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 115 7 unknown unknown JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 115 8 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 116 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 116 2 therefore therefore RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 116 3 used use VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 116 4 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 116 5 standard standard JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 116 6 method method NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 116 7 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 116 8 Maximum Maximum NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 116 9 Likelihood Likelihood NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 116 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 116 11 ML ML NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 116 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 116 13 as as IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 116 14 given give VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 116 15 for for IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 116 16 example example NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 116 17 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 116 18 Cheng Cheng NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 116 19 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 116 20 5 5 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 116 21 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 116 22 to to TO cord-315587-jelh8o3v 116 23 estimate estimate VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 116 24 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 116 25 parameter parameter NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 116 26 values value NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 116 27 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 117 1 Here here RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 117 2 we -PRON- PRP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 117 3 outline outline VBP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 117 4 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 117 5 approach approach NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 117 6 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 117 7 called call VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 117 8 fitting fit VBG cord-315587-jelh8o3v 117 9 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 117 10 model model NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 117 11 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 117 12 used use VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 117 13 to to TO cord-315587-jelh8o3v 117 14 estimate estimate VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 117 15 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 117 16 parameters parameter NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 117 17 from from IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 117 18 a a DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 117 19 sample sample NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 117 20 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 117 21 observed observe VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 117 22 daily daily JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 117 23 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 117 24 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 117 25 this this DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 117 26 being be VBG cord-315587-jelh8o3v 117 27 used use VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 117 28 to to TO cord-315587-jelh8o3v 117 29 prepare prepare VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 117 30 Fig Fig NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 117 31 1 1 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 117 32 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 117 33 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 117 34 main main JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 117 35 text text NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 117 36 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 118 1 Let let VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 118 2 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 118 3 sample sample NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 118 4 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 118 5 observed observed JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 118 6 number number NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 118 7 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 118 8 daily daily JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 118 9 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 118 10 be be VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 118 11 denoted denote VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 118 12 by by IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 118 13 where where WRB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 118 14 is be VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 118 15 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 118 16 number number NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 118 17 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 118 18 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 118 19 on on IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 118 20 day day NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 118 21 t t NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 118 22 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 118 23 is be VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 118 24 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 118 25 number number NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 118 26 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 118 27 days day NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 118 28 observed observe VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 118 29 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 119 1 If if IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 119 2 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 119 3 observations observation NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 119 4 were be VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 119 5 made make VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 119 6 without without IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 119 7 error error NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 119 8 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 119 9 if if IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 119 10 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 119 11 with with IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 119 12 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 119 13 right right JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 119 14 parameter parameter NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 119 15 values value NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 119 16 are be VBP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 119 17 correct correct JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 119 18 for for IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 119 19 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 119 20 then then RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 119 21 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 119 22 death death NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 119 23 trajectory trajectory NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 119 24 { { -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 119 25 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 119 26 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 119 27 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 119 28 = = SYM cord-315587-jelh8o3v 119 29 1,2 1,2 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 119 30 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 119 31 … … NFP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 119 32 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 119 33 } } -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 119 34 would would MD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 119 35 match match VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 119 36 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 119 37 observed observed JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 119 38 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 119 39 Z z VBP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 119 40 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 119 41 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 119 42 7 7 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 119 43 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 119 44 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 120 1 So so RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 120 2 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 120 3 model model NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 120 4 would would MD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 120 5 be be VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 120 6 clearly clearly RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 120 7 successful successful JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 120 8 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 120 9 explaining explain VBG cord-315587-jelh8o3v 120 10 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 120 11 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 121 1 To to TO cord-315587-jelh8o3v 121 2 include include VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 121 3 statistical statistical JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 121 4 uncertainty uncertainty NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 121 5 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 121 6 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 121 7 model model NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 121 8 we -PRON- PRP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 121 9 assume assume VBP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 121 10 instead instead RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 121 11 where where WRB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 121 12 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 121 13 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 121 14 is be VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 121 15 random random JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 121 16 error error NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 121 17 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 122 1 For for IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 122 2 simplicity simplicity NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 122 3 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 122 4 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 122 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 122 6 are be VBP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 122 7 assumed assume VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 122 8 to to TO cord-315587-jelh8o3v 122 9 be be VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 122 10 normally normally RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 122 11 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 122 12 independently independently RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 122 13 distributed distribute VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 122 14 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 122 15 NID NID NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 122 16 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 122 17 with with IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 122 18 standard standard JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 122 19 deviation deviation NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 122 20 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 122 21 i.e. i.e. FW cord-315587-jelh8o3v 122 22 _SP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 122 23 All all DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 122 24 rights right NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 122 25 reserved reserve VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 122 26 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 123 1 No no DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 123 2 reuse reuse NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 123 3 allowed allow VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 123 4 without without IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 123 5 permission permission NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 123 6 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 124 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 124 2 which which WDT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 124 3 was be VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 124 4 not not RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 124 5 certified certify VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 124 6 by by IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 124 7 peer peer NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 124 8 review review NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 124 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 124 10 is be VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 124 11 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 124 12 author author NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 124 13 / / SYM cord-315587-jelh8o3v 124 14 funder funder NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 124 15 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 124 16 who who WP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 124 17 has have VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 124 18 granted grant VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 124 19 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 124 20 a a DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 124 21 license license NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 124 22 to to TO cord-315587-jelh8o3v 124 23 display display VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 124 24 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 124 25 preprint preprint NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 124 26 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 124 27 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 124 28 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 125 1 The the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 125 2 copyright copyright NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 125 3 holder holder NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 125 4 for for IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 125 5 this this DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 125 6 preprint preprint NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 125 7 this this DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 125 8 version version NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 125 9 posted post VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 125 10 June June NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 125 11 29 29 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 125 12 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 125 13 2020 2020 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 125 14 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 125 15 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 126 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.26.20131144 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.26.20131144 NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 126 2 doi doi NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 126 3 : : : cord-315587-jelh8o3v 127 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 127 2 preprint preprint NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 127 3 where where WRB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 127 4 is be VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 127 5 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 127 6 random random JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 127 7 argument argument NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 127 8 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 127 9 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 127 10 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 127 11 parameters parameter NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 127 12 are be VBP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 127 13 fixed fix VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 127 14 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 128 1 In in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 128 2 ML ml NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 128 3 estimation estimation NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 128 4 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 128 5 this this DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 128 6 is be VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 128 7 turned turn VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 128 8 on on RP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 128 9 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 128 10 head head NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 128 11 so so IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 128 12 that that IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 128 13 Z z NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 128 14 is be VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 128 15 simply simply RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 128 16 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 128 17 known know VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 128 18 sample sample NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 128 19 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 128 20 observations observation NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 128 21 now now RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 128 22 regarded regard VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 128 23 as as IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 128 24 fixed fix VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 129 1 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 129 2 we -PRON- PRP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 129 3 write write VBP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 129 4 L L NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 129 5 as as IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 129 6 L L NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 129 7 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 129 8 | | NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 129 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 129 10 = = NFP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 130 1 L L NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 130 2 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 130 3 | | NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 130 4 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 130 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 131 1 calling call VBG cord-315587-jelh8o3v 131 2 it -PRON- PRP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 131 3 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 131 4 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 131 5 log)likelihood log)likelihood VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 131 6 to to TO cord-315587-jelh8o3v 131 7 indicate indicate VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 131 8 that that IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 131 9 it -PRON- PRP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 131 10 is be VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 131 11 now now RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 131 12 treated treat VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 131 13 as as IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 131 14 a a DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 131 15 function function NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 131 16 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 131 17 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 132 1 The the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 132 2 ML ML NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 132 3 estimator estimator NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 132 4 is be VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 132 5 simply simply RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 132 6 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 132 7 value value NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 132 8 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 132 9 at at IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 132 10 which which WDT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 132 11 L L NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 132 12 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 132 13 | | NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 132 14 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 132 15 is be VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 132 16 maximized maximize VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 132 17 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 133 1 i.e. i.e. FW cord-315587-jelh8o3v 133 2 Nelder Nelder NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 133 3 - - HYPH cord-315587-jelh8o3v 133 4 Mead Mead NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 133 5 numerical numerical JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 133 6 search search NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 133 7 for for IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 133 8 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 133 9 maximum maximum NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 133 10 was be VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 133 11 used use VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 133 12 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 134 1 This this DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 134 2 goes go VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 134 3 through through IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 134 4 different different JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 134 5 i=1 i=1 NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 134 6 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 134 7 2 2 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 134 8 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 134 9 3 3 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 134 10 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 134 11 … … NFP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 134 12 comparing compare VBG cord-315587-jelh8o3v 134 13 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 134 14 different different JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 134 15 L l NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 134 16 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 134 17 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 134 18 | | NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 134 19 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 134 20 to to TO cord-315587-jelh8o3v 134 21 find find VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 134 22 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 134 23 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 134 24 best good JJS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 134 25 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 135 1 To to TO cord-315587-jelh8o3v 135 2 simplify simplify VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 135 3 description description NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 135 4 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 135 5 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 135 6 estimation estimation NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 135 7 process process NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 135 8 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 135 9 only only RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 135 10 fitting fit VBG cord-315587-jelh8o3v 135 11 to to IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 135 12 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 135 13 data datum NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 135 14 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 135 15 Z Z NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 135 16 as as IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 135 17 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 135 18 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 135 19 7 7 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 135 20 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 135 21 has have VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 135 22 been be VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 135 23 described describe VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 135 24 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 135 25 but but CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 135 26 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 135 27 method method NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 135 28 extends extend VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 135 29 straightforwardly straightforwardly RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 135 30 to to TO cord-315587-jelh8o3v 135 31 include include VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 135 32 other other JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 135 33 data data NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 135 34 samples sample NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 135 35 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 136 1 For for IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 136 2 example example NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 136 3 where where WRB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 136 4 is be VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 136 5 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 136 6 number number NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 136 7 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 136 8 active active JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 136 9 cases case NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 136 10 on on IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 136 11 day day NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 136 12 t. t. NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 136 13 Fitting fitting NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 136 14 simultaneously simultaneously RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 136 15 to to IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 136 16 both both CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 136 17 Y Y NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 136 18 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 136 19 Z Z NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 136 20 can can MD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 136 21 be be VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 136 22 carried carry VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 136 23 out out RP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 136 24 by by IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 136 25 adding add VBG cord-315587-jelh8o3v 136 26 to to IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 136 27 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 136 28 right right JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 136 29 - - HYPH cord-315587-jelh8o3v 136 30 hand hand NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 136 31 side side NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 136 32 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 136 33 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 136 34 10 10 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 136 35 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 136 36 a a DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 136 37 corresponding corresponding JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 136 38 set set NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 136 39 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 136 40 terms term NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 136 41 for for IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 136 42 Y. Y. NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 136 43 Numerical numerical JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 136 44 solution solution NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 136 45 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 136 46 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 136 47 differential differential JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 136 48 equations equation NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 136 49 requires require VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 136 50 initial initial JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 136 51 values value NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 136 52 for for IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 136 53 S S NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 136 54 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 136 55 E E NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 136 56 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 136 57 I -PRON- PRP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 136 58 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 136 59 R. R. NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 137 1 These these DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 137 2 are be VBP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 137 3 essentially essentially RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 137 4 scale scale NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 137 5 invariant invariant JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 137 6 with with IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 137 7 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 137 8 + + NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 137 9 + + CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 137 10 + + CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 137 11 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 137 12 constant constant JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 137 13 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 137 14 independent independent JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 137 15 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 137 16 t. t. NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 138 1 So so RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 138 2 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 138 3 numerical numerical JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 138 4 integration integration NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 138 5 can can MD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 138 6 conveniently conveniently RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 138 7 be be VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 138 8 done do VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 138 9 using use VBG cord-315587-jelh8o3v 138 10 S(0 S(0 NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 138 11 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 138 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 139 1 = = SYM cord-315587-jelh8o3v 139 2 1 1 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 139 3 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 139 4 E(0 E(0 NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 139 5 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 139 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 140 1 some some DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 140 2 small small JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 140 3 quantity quantity NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 140 4 subsequently subsequently RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 140 5 adjustable adjustable JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 140 6 as as IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 140 7 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 140 8 initial initial JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 140 9 value value NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 140 10 is be VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 140 11 a a DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 140 12 parameter parameter NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 140 13 ; ; : cord-315587-jelh8o3v 140 14 with with IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 140 15 I -PRON- PRP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 140 16 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 140 17 R r NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 140 18 also also RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 140 19 initially initially RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 140 20 zero zero CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 140 21 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 141 1 The the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 141 2 population population NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 141 3 size size NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 141 4 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 141 5 also also RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 141 6 a a DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 141 7 parameter parameter NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 141 8 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 141 9 is be VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 141 10 only only RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 141 11 needed need VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 141 12 to to TO cord-315587-jelh8o3v 141 13 provide provide VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 141 14 scaled scaled JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 141 15 values value NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 141 16 S s NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 141 17 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 141 18 E E NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 141 19 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 141 20 I -PRON- PRP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 141 21 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 141 22 R r NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 141 23 at at IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 141 24 each each DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 141 25 step step NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 141 26 for for IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 141 27 comparison comparison NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 141 28 with with IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 141 29 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 141 30 data datum NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 141 31 Y Y NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 141 32 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 141 33 Z. Z. NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 141 34 Epidemic epidemic NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 141 35 shape shape NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 141 36 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 141 37 scale scale NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 141 38 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 141 39 which which WDT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 141 40 was be VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 141 41 not not RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 141 42 certified certify VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 141 43 by by IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 141 44 peer peer NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 141 45 review review NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 141 46 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 141 47 is be VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 141 48 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 141 49 author author NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 141 50 / / SYM cord-315587-jelh8o3v 141 51 funder funder NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 141 52 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 141 53 who who WP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 141 54 has have VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 141 55 granted grant VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 141 56 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 141 57 a a DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 141 58 license license NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 141 59 to to TO cord-315587-jelh8o3v 141 60 display display VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 141 61 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 141 62 preprint preprint NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 141 63 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 141 64 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 141 65 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 142 1 The the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 142 2 copyright copyright NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 142 3 holder holder NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 142 4 for for IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 142 5 this this DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 142 6 preprint preprint NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 142 7 this this DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 142 8 version version NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 142 9 posted post VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 142 10 June June NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 142 11 29 29 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 142 12 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 142 13 2020 2020 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 142 14 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 142 15 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 143 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.26.20131144 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.26.20131144 NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 143 2 doi doi NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 143 3 : : : cord-315587-jelh8o3v 144 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 144 2 preprint preprint NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 144 3 Model Model NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 144 4 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 144 5 for for IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 144 6 Switzerland Switzerland NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 144 7 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 144 8 Fig Fig NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 144 9 1 1 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 144 10 differ differ VBP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 144 11 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 144 12 shape shape NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 144 13 as as RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 144 14 well well RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 144 15 as as IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 144 16 size size NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 144 17 ; ; : cord-315587-jelh8o3v 144 18 they -PRON- PRP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 144 19 are be VBP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 144 20 not not RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 144 21 scale scale NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 144 22 invariant invariant JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 144 23 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 145 1 Fig Fig NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 145 2 S3 S3 NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 145 3 adjusts adjust VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 145 4 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 145 5 peak peak NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 145 6 sizes size NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 145 7 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 145 8 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 145 9 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 145 10 Fig Fig NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 145 11 1 1 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 145 12 to to TO cord-315587-jelh8o3v 145 13 show show VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 145 14 more more RBR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 145 15 clearly clearly RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 145 16 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 145 17 differences difference NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 145 18 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 145 19 shape shape NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 145 20 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 145 21 i.e. i.e. FW cord-315587-jelh8o3v 145 22 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 145 23 different different JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 145 24 distribution distribution NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 145 25 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 145 26 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 145 27 through through IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 145 28 time time NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 145 29 when when WRB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 145 30 an an DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 145 31 epidemic epidemic NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 145 32 is be VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 145 33 " " `` cord-315587-jelh8o3v 145 34 flattened flatten VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 145 35 " " '' cord-315587-jelh8o3v 145 36 by by IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 145 37 reducing reduce VBG cord-315587-jelh8o3v 145 38 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 145 39 case case NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 145 40 reproduction reproduction NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 145 41 number number NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 145 42 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 146 1 In in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 146 2 Switzerland Switzerland NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 146 3 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 146 4 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 146 5 relatively relatively RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 146 6 flat flat JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 146 7 peak peak NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 146 8 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 146 9 reported report VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 146 10 COVID-19 covid-19 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 146 11 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 146 12 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 147 1 Fig fig NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 147 2 1 1 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 147 3 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 147 4 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 147 5 main main JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 147 6 _SP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 147 7 text text NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 147 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 147 9 differs differ VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 147 10 from from IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 147 11 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 147 12 estimated estimate VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 147 13 number number NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 147 14 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 147 15 excess excess JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 147 16 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 147 17 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 147 18 week week NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 147 19 14 14 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 147 20 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 147 21 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 147 22 suggesting suggest VBG cord-315587-jelh8o3v 147 23 that that IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 147 24 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 147 25 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 147 26 might may MD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 147 27 have have VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 147 28 been be VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 147 29 under under RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 147 30 - - HYPH cord-315587-jelh8o3v 147 31 reported report VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 147 32 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 147 33 that that DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 147 34 week week NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 147 35 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 147 36 Fig Fig NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 147 37 S4 S4 NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 147 38 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 147 39 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 148 1 The the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 148 2 number number NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 148 3 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 148 4 excess excess JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 148 5 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 148 6 reported report VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 148 7 from from IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 148 8 European european JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 148 9 countries country NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 148 10 was be VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 148 11 approximately approximately RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 148 12 29 29 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 148 13 % % NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 148 14 greater great JJR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 148 15 than than IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 148 16 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 148 17 number number NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 148 18 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 148 19 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 148 20 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 148 21 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 148 22 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 148 23 8 8 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 148 24 countries country NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 148 25 for for IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 148 26 which which WDT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 148 27 estimates estimate NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 148 28 have have VBP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 148 29 been be VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 148 30 published publish VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 148 31 ; ; : cord-315587-jelh8o3v 148 32 Fig Fig NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 148 33 S5 S5 NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 148 34 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 148 35 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 148 36 7 7 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 148 37 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 148 38 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 149 1 This this DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 149 2 is be VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 149 3 a a DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 149 4 small small JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 149 5 difference difference NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 149 6 within within IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 149 7 each each DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 149 8 country country NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 149 9 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 149 10 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 149 11 comparison comparison NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 149 12 with with IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 149 13 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 149 14 100-fold 100-fold CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 149 15 difference difference NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 149 16 COVID-19 covid-19 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 149 17 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 149 18 reported report VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 149 19 between between IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 149 20 countries country NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 149 21 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 150 1 Week week NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 150 2 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 150 3 2020 2020 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 150 4 Deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 150 5 / / SYM cord-315587-jelh8o3v 150 6 week week NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 150 7 Excess excess JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 150 8 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 150 9 / / SYM cord-315587-jelh8o3v 150 10 week week NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 150 11 All all DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 150 12 rights right NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 150 13 reserved reserve VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 150 14 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 151 1 No no DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 151 2 reuse reuse NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 151 3 allowed allow VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 151 4 without without IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 151 5 permission permission NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 151 6 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 152 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 152 2 which which WDT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 152 3 was be VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 152 4 not not RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 152 5 certified certify VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 152 6 by by IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 152 7 peer peer NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 152 8 review review NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 152 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 152 10 is be VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 152 11 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 152 12 author author NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 152 13 / / SYM cord-315587-jelh8o3v 152 14 funder funder NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 152 15 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 152 16 who who WP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 152 17 has have VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 152 18 granted grant VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 152 19 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 152 20 a a DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 152 21 license license NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 152 22 to to TO cord-315587-jelh8o3v 152 23 display display VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 152 24 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 152 25 preprint preprint NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 152 26 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 152 27 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 152 28 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 153 1 The the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 153 2 copyright copyright NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 153 3 holder holder NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 153 4 for for IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 153 5 this this DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 153 6 preprint preprint NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 153 7 this this DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 153 8 version version NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 153 9 posted post VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 153 10 June June NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 153 11 29 29 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 153 12 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 153 13 2020 2020 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 153 14 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 153 15 _SP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 154 1 Although although IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 154 2 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 154 3 SEIR SEIR NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 154 4 model model NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 154 5 is be VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 154 6 based base VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 154 7 on on IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 154 8 epidemiological epidemiological JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 154 9 principles principle NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 154 10 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 154 11 it -PRON- PRP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 154 12 does do VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 154 13 not not RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 154 14 accurately accurately RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 154 15 describe describe VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 154 16 all all DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 154 17 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 154 18 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 154 19 European European NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 154 20 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 154 21 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 154 22 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 155 1 In in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 155 2 particular particular JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 155 3 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 155 4 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 155 5 SEIR SEIR NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 155 6 model model NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 155 7 does do VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 155 8 not not RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 155 9 easily easily RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 155 10 replicate replicate VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 155 11 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 155 12 slow slow JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 155 13 rates rate NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 155 14 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 155 15 epidemic epidemic NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 155 16 decline decline NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 155 17 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 156 1 For for IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 156 2 this this DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 156 3 reason reason NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 156 4 we -PRON- PRP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 156 5 used use VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 156 6 a a DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 156 7 skew skew VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 156 8 - - HYPH cord-315587-jelh8o3v 156 9 logistic logistic JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 156 10 model model NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 156 11 to to TO cord-315587-jelh8o3v 156 12 describe describe VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 156 13 European european JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 156 14 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 156 15 : : : cord-315587-jelh8o3v 156 16 where where WRB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 156 17 f(t f(t NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 156 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 156 19 is be VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 156 20 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 156 21 number number NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 156 22 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 156 23 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 156 24 per per IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 156 25 unit unit NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 156 26 time time NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 156 27 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 157 1 The the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 157 2 growth growth NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 157 3 rate rate NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 157 4 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 157 5 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 157 6 epidemic epidemic NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 157 7 is be VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 157 8 b b NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 157 9 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 157 10 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 157 11 f(t f(t NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 157 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 157 13 converges converge VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 157 14 to to IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 157 15 zero zero CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 157 16 at at IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 157 17 a a DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 157 18 rate rate NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 157 19 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 157 20 decline decline NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 157 21 d d NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 157 22 = = SYM cord-315587-jelh8o3v 157 23 b b NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 157 24   NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 157 25 2c 2c NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 157 26 when when WRB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 157 27 t t NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 157 28   NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 157 29 . . -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 157 30 Parameter parameter NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 157 31 τ τ NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 157 32 positions position VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 157 33 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 157 34 epidemic epidemic NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 157 35 along along IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 157 36 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 157 37 time time NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 157 38 axis axis NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 157 39 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 158 1 The the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 158 2 model model NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 158 3 can can MD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 158 4 be be VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 158 5 fitted fit VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 158 6 to to IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 158 7 data datum NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 158 8 ─ ─ NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 158 9 here here RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 158 10 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 158 11 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 158 12 each each DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 158 13 time time NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 158 14 interval interval NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 158 15 ─ ─ NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 158 16 either either CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 158 17 by by IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 158 18 least least JJS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 158 19 squares square NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 158 20 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 158 21 LSQ LSQ NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 158 22 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 158 23 or or CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 158 24 maximum maximum JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 158 25 likelihood likelihood NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 158 26 methods method NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 158 27 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 158 28 MLE MLE NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 158 29 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 158 30 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 159 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 159 2 fitted fit VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 159 3 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 159 4 model model NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 159 5 to to IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 159 6 data datum NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 159 7 from from IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 159 8 24 24 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 159 9 countries country NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 159 10 for for IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 159 11 which which WDT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 159 12 there there EX cord-315587-jelh8o3v 159 13 were be VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 159 14 sufficient sufficient JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 159 15 reported report VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 159 16 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 159 17 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 159 18 Figs Figs NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 159 19 2 2 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 159 20 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 159 21 3 3 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 159 22 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 159 23 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 159 24 main main JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 159 25 paper paper NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 159 26 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 159 27 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 159 28 but but CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 159 29 added add VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 159 30 Bulgaria Bulgaria NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 159 31 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 159 32 Slovenia Slovenia NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 159 33 for for IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 159 34 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 159 35 analysis analysis NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 159 36 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 159 37 Fig Fig NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 159 38 4 4 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 159 39 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 160 1 Examples example NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 160 2 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 160 3 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 160 4 estimates estimate NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 160 5 shown show VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 160 6 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 160 7 Fig Fig NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 160 8 2 2 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 160 9 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 160 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 160 11 which which WDT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 160 12 was be VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 160 13 not not RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 160 14 certified certify VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 160 15 by by IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 160 16 peer peer NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 160 17 review review NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 160 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 160 19 is be VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 160 20 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 160 21 author author NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 160 22 / / SYM cord-315587-jelh8o3v 160 23 funder funder NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 160 24 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 160 25 who who WP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 160 26 has have VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 160 27 granted grant VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 160 28 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 160 29 a a DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 160 30 license license NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 160 31 to to TO cord-315587-jelh8o3v 160 32 display display VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 160 33 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 160 34 preprint preprint NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 160 35 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 160 36 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 160 37 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 161 1 The the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 161 2 copyright copyright NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 161 3 holder holder NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 161 4 for for IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 161 5 this this DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 161 6 preprint preprint NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 161 7 this this DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 161 8 version version NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 161 9 posted post VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 161 10 June June NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 161 11 29 29 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 161 12 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 161 13 2020 2020 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 161 14 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 162 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 162 2 8) 8) NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 162 3 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 162 4 implemented implement VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 162 5 by by IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 162 6 ETH ETH NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 162 7 Zurich Zurich NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 162 8 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 162 9 9 9 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 162 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 162 11 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 163 1 Re Re VBG cord-315587-jelh8o3v 163 2 for for IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 163 3 each each DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 163 4 day day NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 163 5 is be VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 163 6 presented present VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 163 7 as as IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 163 8 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 163 9 continuously continuously RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 163 10 varying vary VBG cord-315587-jelh8o3v 163 11 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 163 12 retrospective retrospective JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 163 13 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 163 14 average average NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 163 15 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 164 1 While while IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 164 2 commonly commonly RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 164 3 used use VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 164 4 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 164 5 reported report VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 164 6 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 164 7 Re re IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 164 8 does do VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 164 9 not not RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 164 10 characterize characterize VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 164 11 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 164 12 distinguish distinguish VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 164 13 European european JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 164 14 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 164 15 as as RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 164 16 effectively effectively RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 164 17 as as IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 164 18 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 164 19 empirical empirical JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 164 20 model model NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 164 21 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 164 22 Fig Fig NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 164 23 S6 S6 NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 164 24 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 164 25 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 165 1 Time time NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 165 2 trends trend NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 165 3 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 165 4 Re Re NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 165 5 are be VBP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 165 6 similar similar JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 165 7 for for IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 165 8 Germany Germany NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 165 9 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 165 10 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 165 11 United United NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 165 12 Kingdom Kingdom NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 165 13 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 165 14 Fig Fig NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 165 15 S5b S5b NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 165 16 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 165 17 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 165 18 although although IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 165 19 they -PRON- PRP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 165 20 do do VBP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 165 21 show show VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 165 22 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 165 23 lower low JJR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 165 24 rate rate NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 165 25 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 165 26 epidemic epidemic NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 165 27 decline decline NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 165 28 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 165 29 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 165 30 UK UK NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 165 31 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 166 1 In in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 166 2 general general JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 166 3 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 166 4 however however RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 166 5 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 166 6 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 166 7 skew skew VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 166 8 - - HYPH cord-315587-jelh8o3v 166 9 logistic logistic JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 166 10 model model NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 166 11 provides provide VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 166 12 a a DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 166 13 more more RBR cord-315587-jelh8o3v 166 14 useful useful JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 166 15 set set NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 166 16 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 166 17 parameters parameter NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 166 18 to to TO cord-315587-jelh8o3v 166 19 separate separate VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 166 20 these these DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 166 21 two two CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 166 22 countries country NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 166 23 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 166 24 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 166 25 others other NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 166 26 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 166 27 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 166 28 as as IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 166 29 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 166 30 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 166 31 shaded shaded JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 166 32 entries entry NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 166 33 to to IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 166 34 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 166 35 Table Table NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 166 36 below below RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 166 37 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 167 1 Besides besides IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 167 2 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 167 3 rate rate NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 167 4 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 167 5 decline decline NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 167 6 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 167 7 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 167 8 two two CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 167 9 countries country NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 167 10 experienced experience VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 167 11 differences difference NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 167 12 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 167 13 epidemic epidemic NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 167 14 growth growth NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 167 15 rate rate NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 167 16 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 167 17 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 167 18 duration duration NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 167 19 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 167 20 epidemic epidemic NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 167 21 growth growth NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 167 22 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 167 23 net net JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 167 24 growth growth NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 167 25 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 167 26 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 167 27 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 167 28 number number NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 167 29 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 167 30 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 167 31 at at IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 167 32 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 167 33 epidemic epidemic NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 167 34 peak peak NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 167 35 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 167 36 as as IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 167 37 shown show VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 167 38 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 167 39 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 167 40 following follow VBG cord-315587-jelh8o3v 167 41 All all DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 167 42 rights right NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 167 43 reserved reserve VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 167 44 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 168 1 No no DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 168 2 reuse reuse NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 168 3 allowed allow VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 168 4 without without IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 168 5 permission permission NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 168 6 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 169 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 169 2 which which WDT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 169 3 was be VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 169 4 not not RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 169 5 certified certify VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 169 6 by by IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 169 7 peer peer NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 169 8 review review NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 169 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 169 10 is be VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 169 11 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 169 12 author author NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 169 13 / / SYM cord-315587-jelh8o3v 169 14 funder funder NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 169 15 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 169 16 who who WP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 169 17 has have VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 169 18 granted grant VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 169 19 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 169 20 a a DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 169 21 license license NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 169 22 to to TO cord-315587-jelh8o3v 169 23 display display VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 169 24 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 169 25 preprint preprint NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 169 26 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 169 27 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 169 28 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 170 1 The the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 170 2 copyright copyright NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 170 3 holder holder NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 170 4 for for IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 170 5 this this DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 170 6 preprint preprint NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 170 7 this this DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 170 8 version version NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 170 9 posted post VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 170 10 June June NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 170 11 29 29 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 170 12 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 170 13 2020 2020 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 170 14 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 171 1 All all DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 171 2 rights right NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 171 3 reserved reserve VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 171 4 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 172 1 No no DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 172 2 reuse reuse NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 172 3 allowed allow VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 172 4 without without IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 172 5 permission permission NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 172 6 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 173 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 173 2 which which WDT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 173 3 was be VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 173 4 not not RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 173 5 certified certify VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 173 6 by by IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 173 7 peer peer NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 173 8 review review NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 173 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-315587-jelh8o3v 173 10 is be VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 173 11 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 173 12 author author NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 173 13 / / SYM cord-315587-jelh8o3v 173 14 funder funder NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 173 15 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 173 16 who who WP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 173 17 has have VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 173 18 granted grant VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 173 19 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 173 20 a a DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 173 21 license license NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 173 22 to to TO cord-315587-jelh8o3v 173 23 display display VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 173 24 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 173 25 preprint preprint NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 173 26 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 173 27 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 173 28 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 174 1 The the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 174 2 copyright copyright NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 174 3 holder holder NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 174 4 for for IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 174 5 this this DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 174 6 preprint preprint NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 174 7 this this DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 174 8 version version NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 174 9 posted post VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 174 10 June June NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 174 11 29 29 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 174 12 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 174 13 2020 2020 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 174 14 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 174 15 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 175 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.26.20131144 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.26.20131144 NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 175 2 doi doi NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 175 3 : : : cord-315587-jelh8o3v 176 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 176 2 preprint preprint NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 176 3 Effects effect NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 176 4 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 176 5 non non JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 176 6 - - JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 176 7 pharmaceutical pharmaceutical JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 176 8 interventions intervention NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 176 9 on on IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 176 10 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 176 11 cases case NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 176 12 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 176 13 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 176 14 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 176 15 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 176 16 demand demand NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 176 17 for for IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 176 18 hospital hospital NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 176 19 services service NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 176 20 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 176 21 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 176 22 UK UK NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 176 23 : : : cord-315587-jelh8o3v 177 1 a a DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 177 2 modelling modelling NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 177 3 study study NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 1 The the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 2 effect effect NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 3 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 4 control control NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 5 strategies strategy NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 6 to to TO cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 7 reduce reduce VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 8 social social JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 9 mixing mixing NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 10 on on IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 11 outcomes outcome NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 12 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 13 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 14 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 15 epidemic epidemic NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 16 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 17 Wuhan Wuhan NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 18 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 19 China China NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 20 : : : cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 21 a a DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 22 modelling modelling NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 23 study study NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 24 Estimating estimate VBG cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 25 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 26 effects effect NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 27 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 28 non non JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 29 - - JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 30 pharmaceutical pharmaceutical JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 31 interventions intervention NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 32 on on IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 33 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 34 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 35 Europe Europe NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 36 Changes Changes NNPS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 37 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 38 contact contact NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 39 patterns pattern NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 40 shape shape VBP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 41 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 42 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 43 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 44 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 45 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 46 outbreak outbreak NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 47 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 48 China China NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 49 Generality Generality NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 50 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 51 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 52 final final JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 53 size size NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 54 formula formula NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 55 for for IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 56 an an DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 57 epidemic epidemic NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 58 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 59 a a DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 60 newly newly RB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 61 invading invade VBG cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 62 infectious infectious JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 63 disease disease NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 64 Genomic genomic JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 65 epidemiology epidemiology NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 66 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 67 SARS SARS NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 68 - - HYPH cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 69 CoV-2 CoV-2 NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 70 spread spread VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 71 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 72 Scotland Scotland NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 73 highlights highlight VBZ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 74 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 75 role role NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 76 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 77 European european JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 78 travel travel NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 79 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 80 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 81 emergence emergence NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 178 82 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 179 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 179 2 Preliminary preliminary JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 179 3 analysis analysis NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 179 4 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 179 5 SARS SARS NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 179 6 - - HYPH cord-315587-jelh8o3v 179 7 CoV-2 CoV-2 NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 179 8 importation importation NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 179 9 & & CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 179 10 establishment establishment NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 179 11 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 179 12 UK UK NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 179 13 transmission transmission NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 179 14 lineages lineage NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 179 15 By by IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 179 16 early early JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 179 17 April April NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 179 18 , , , cord-315587-jelh8o3v 179 19 coronavirus coronavirus NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 179 20 had have VBD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 179 21 spread spread VBN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 179 22 to to IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 179 23 10 10 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 179 24 percent percent NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 179 25 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 179 26 Stockholm Stockholm NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 179 27 population population NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 179 28 References reference NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 179 29 1 1 CD cord-315587-jelh8o3v 179 30 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 180 1 European European NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 180 2 Centre Centre NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 180 3 for for IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 180 4 Disease Disease NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 180 5 Prevention Prevention NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 180 6 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 180 7 Control Control NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 180 8 Estimating estimate VBG cord-315587-jelh8o3v 180 9 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 180 10 effects effect NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 180 11 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 180 12 non non JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 180 13 - - JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 180 14 pharmaceutical pharmaceutical JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 180 15 interventions intervention NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 180 16 on on IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 180 17 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 180 18 in in IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 180 19 Europe Europe NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 180 20 Estimating Estimating NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 180 21 epidemic epidemic NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 180 22 exponential exponential JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 180 23 growth growth NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 180 24 rate rate NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 180 25 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 180 26 basic basic JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 180 27 reproduction reproduction NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 180 28 number number NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 180 29 Sensitivity sensitivity NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 180 30 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 180 31 UK UK NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 180 32 Covid-19 covid-19 VBP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 180 33 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 180 34 to to IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 180 35 the the DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 180 36 timing timing NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 180 37 of of IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 180 38 suppression suppression NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 180 39 measures measure NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 180 40 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 180 41 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 180 42 relaxation relaxation NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 180 43 Non Non NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 180 44 - - NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 180 45 Standard Standard NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 180 46 Parametric Parametric NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 180 47 Statistical Statistical NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 180 48 Inference Inference NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 180 49 Graphs Graphs NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 180 50 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 180 51 maps map NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 180 52 Tracking track VBG cord-315587-jelh8o3v 180 53 covid-19 covid-19 NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 180 54 excess excess JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 180 55 deaths death NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 180 56 across across IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 180 57 countries country NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 180 58 . . . cord-315587-jelh8o3v 181 1 Covid-19 Covid-19 NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 181 2 data data NNP cord-315587-jelh8o3v 181 3 A a DT cord-315587-jelh8o3v 181 4 new new JJ cord-315587-jelh8o3v 181 5 framework framework NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 181 6 and and CC cord-315587-jelh8o3v 181 7 software software NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 181 8 to to TO cord-315587-jelh8o3v 181 9 estimate estimate VB cord-315587-jelh8o3v 181 10 time time NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 181 11 - - HYPH cord-315587-jelh8o3v 181 12 varying vary VBG cord-315587-jelh8o3v 181 13 reproduction reproduction NN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 181 14 numbers number NNS cord-315587-jelh8o3v 181 15 during during IN cord-315587-jelh8o3v 181 16 epidemics epidemic NNS