id sid tid token lemma pos cord-296285-qiez6adj 1 1 key key JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 1 2 : : : cord-296285-qiez6adj 1 3 cord-296285-qiez6adj cord-296285-qiez6adj VBN cord-296285-qiez6adj 1 4 authors author NNS cord-296285-qiez6adj 1 5 : : : cord-296285-qiez6adj 1 6 Boudrioua Boudrioua NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 1 7 , , , cord-296285-qiez6adj 1 8 M. M. NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 1 9 S. S. NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 1 10 ; ; : cord-296285-qiez6adj 1 11 Boudrioua Boudrioua NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 1 12 , , , cord-296285-qiez6adj 1 13 A. a. NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 1 14 title title NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 1 15 : : : cord-296285-qiez6adj 1 16 Predicting predict VBG cord-296285-qiez6adj 1 17 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 1 18 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 1 19 epidemic epidemic NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 1 20 in in IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 1 21 Algeria Algeria NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 1 22 using use VBG cord-296285-qiez6adj 1 23 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 1 24 SIR SIR NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 1 25 model model NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 1 26 date date NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 1 27 : : : cord-296285-qiez6adj 1 28 2020 2020 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 1 29 - - HYPH cord-296285-qiez6adj 1 30 04 04 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 1 31 - - HYPH cord-296285-qiez6adj 1 32 29 29 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 1 33 journal journal NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 1 34 : : : cord-296285-qiez6adj 2 1 nan nan NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 2 2 DOI DOI NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 2 3 : : : cord-296285-qiez6adj 2 4 10.1101/2020.04.25.20079467 10.1101/2020.04.25.20079467 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 2 5 sha sha NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 2 6 : : : cord-296285-qiez6adj 2 7 7f90c6f3c1e95dee62ba10ff233bb4734c0aa45a 7f90c6f3c1e95dee62ba10ff233bb4734c0aa45a NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 2 8 doc_id doc_id CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 2 9 : : : cord-296285-qiez6adj 2 10 296285 296285 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 2 11 cord_uid cord_uid NNS cord-296285-qiez6adj 2 12 : : : cord-296285-qiez6adj 3 1 qiez6adj qiez6adj NNS cord-296285-qiez6adj 4 1 The the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 4 2 aim aim NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 4 3 of of IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 4 4 this this DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 4 5 study study NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 4 6 is be VBZ cord-296285-qiez6adj 4 7 to to TO cord-296285-qiez6adj 4 8 predict predict VB cord-296285-qiez6adj 4 9 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 4 10 daily daily JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 4 11 infected infected JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 4 12 cases case NNS cord-296285-qiez6adj 4 13 with with IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 4 14 Coronavirus Coronavirus NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 4 15 ( ( -LRB- cord-296285-qiez6adj 4 16 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 4 17 ) ) -RRB- cord-296285-qiez6adj 4 18 in in IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 4 19 Algeria Algeria NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 4 20 . . . cord-296285-qiez6adj 5 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-296285-qiez6adj 5 2 apply apply VBP cord-296285-qiez6adj 5 3 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 5 4 SIR SIR NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 5 5 model model NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 5 6 on on IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 5 7 data datum NNS cord-296285-qiez6adj 5 8 from from IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 5 9 25 25 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 5 10 February February NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 5 11 2020 2020 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 5 12 to to IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 5 13 29 29 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 5 14 April April NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 5 15 2020 2020 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 5 16 for for IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 5 17 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 5 18 prediction prediction NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 5 19 . . . cord-296285-qiez6adj 6 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-296285-qiez6adj 6 2 estimate estimate VBP cord-296285-qiez6adj 6 3 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 6 4 parameters parameter NNS cord-296285-qiez6adj 6 5 of of IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 6 6 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-296285-qiez6adj 6 7 model model NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 6 8 by by IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 6 9 minimizing minimize VBG cord-296285-qiez6adj 6 10 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 6 11 negative negative JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 6 12 log log NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 6 13 likelihood likelihood NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 6 14 function function NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 6 15 using use VBG cord-296285-qiez6adj 6 16 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 6 17 Nelder- Nelder- NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 6 18 Mead Mead NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 6 19 method method NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 6 20 . . . cord-296285-qiez6adj 7 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-296285-qiez6adj 7 2 found find VBD cord-296285-qiez6adj 7 3 that that IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 7 4 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 7 5 epidemic epidemic NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 7 6 peak peak NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 7 7 reach reach NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 7 8 July July NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 7 9 month month NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 7 10 and and CC cord-296285-qiez6adj 7 11 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 7 12 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 7 13 disease disease NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 7 14 will will MD cord-296285-qiez6adj 7 15 disappear disappear VB cord-296285-qiez6adj 7 16 in in IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 7 17 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 7 18 month month NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 7 19 of of IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 7 20 October October NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 7 21 . . . cord-296285-qiez6adj 8 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-296285-qiez6adj 8 2 suggest suggest VBP cord-296285-qiez6adj 8 3 that that IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 8 4 Algerian algerian JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 8 5 authorities authority NNS cord-296285-qiez6adj 8 6 need need VBP cord-296285-qiez6adj 8 7 to to TO cord-296285-qiez6adj 8 8 implement implement VB cord-296285-qiez6adj 8 9 a a DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 8 10 strict strict JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 8 11 containment containment NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 8 12 strategy strategy NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 8 13 over over IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 8 14 a a DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 8 15 long long JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 8 16 period period NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 8 17 to to TO cord-296285-qiez6adj 8 18 effectively effectively RB cord-296285-qiez6adj 8 19 reduce reduce VB cord-296285-qiez6adj 8 20 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 8 21 epidemic epidemic NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 8 22 size size NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 8 23 . . . cord-296285-qiez6adj 9 1 2 2 LS cord-296285-qiez6adj 10 1 Algeria Algeria NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 10 2 has have VBZ cord-296285-qiez6adj 10 3 reported report VBN cord-296285-qiez6adj 10 4 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 10 5 first first JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 10 6 case case NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 10 7 of of IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 10 8 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 10 9 on on IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 10 10 25 25 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 10 11 February February NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 10 12 2020 2020 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 10 13 , , , cord-296285-qiez6adj 10 14 in in IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 10 15 Ouargla Ouargla NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 10 16 region region NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 10 17 and and CC cord-296285-qiez6adj 10 18 he -PRON- PRP cord-296285-qiez6adj 10 19 was be VBD cord-296285-qiez6adj 10 20 an an DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 10 21 Italian italian JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 10 22 national national NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 10 23 ( ( -LRB- cord-296285-qiez6adj 10 24 HAMIDOUCHE HAMIDOUCHE NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 10 25 , , , cord-296285-qiez6adj 10 26 2020 2020 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 10 27 ; ; : cord-296285-qiez6adj 10 28 Algerian Algerian NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 10 29 Ministry Ministry NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 10 30 of of IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 10 31 Health Health NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 10 32 2020 2020 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 10 33 ) ) -RRB- cord-296285-qiez6adj 10 34 . . . cord-296285-qiez6adj 11 1 Two two CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 11 2 other other JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 11 3 cases case NNS cord-296285-qiez6adj 11 4 were be VBD cord-296285-qiez6adj 11 5 reported report VBN cord-296285-qiez6adj 11 6 on on IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 11 7 01 01 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 11 8 march march NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 11 9 2020 2020 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 11 10 in in IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 11 11 Blida Blida NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 11 12 region region NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 11 13 in in IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 11 14 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 11 15 North North NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 11 16 of of IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 11 17 Algeria Algeria NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 11 18 ( ( -LRB- cord-296285-qiez6adj 11 19 HAMIDOUCHE HAMIDOUCHE NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 11 20 , , , cord-296285-qiez6adj 11 21 2020 2020 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 11 22 ; ; : cord-296285-qiez6adj 11 23 Algerian Algerian NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 11 24 Ministry Ministry NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 11 25 of of IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 11 26 Health Health NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 11 27 2020).The 2020).The NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 11 28 epidemic epidemic NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 11 29 continues continue VBZ cord-296285-qiez6adj 11 30 to to TO cord-296285-qiez6adj 11 31 spread spread VB cord-296285-qiez6adj 11 32 in in IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 11 33 other other JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 11 34 regions region NNS cord-296285-qiez6adj 11 35 of of IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 11 36 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 11 37 country country NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 11 38 . . . cord-296285-qiez6adj 12 1 On on IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 12 2 03 03 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 12 3 April April NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 12 4 2020 2020 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 12 5 , , , cord-296285-qiez6adj 12 6 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 12 7 Algerian algerian JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 12 8 authorities authority NNS cord-296285-qiez6adj 12 9 have have VBP cord-296285-qiez6adj 12 10 declared declare VBN cord-296285-qiez6adj 12 11 1171 1171 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 12 12 confirmed confirm VBN cord-296285-qiez6adj 12 13 cases case NNS cord-296285-qiez6adj 12 14 with with IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 12 15 105 105 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 12 16 deaths death NNS cord-296285-qiez6adj 12 17 cases case NNS cord-296285-qiez6adj 12 18 ( ( -LRB- cord-296285-qiez6adj 12 19 Algerian Algerian NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 12 20 Ministry Ministry NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 12 21 of of IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 12 22 Health Health NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 12 23 , , , cord-296285-qiez6adj 12 24 2020 2020 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 12 25 ) ) -RRB- cord-296285-qiez6adj 12 26 . . . cord-296285-qiez6adj 13 1 Various various JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 13 2 earlier early JJR cord-296285-qiez6adj 13 3 studies study NNS cord-296285-qiez6adj 13 4 have have VBP cord-296285-qiez6adj 13 5 predicted predict VBN cord-296285-qiez6adj 13 6 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 13 7 confirmed confirm VBN cord-296285-qiez6adj 13 8 cases case NNS cord-296285-qiez6adj 13 9 of of IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 13 10 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 13 11 infection infection NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 13 12 in in IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 13 13 different different JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 13 14 countries country NNS cord-296285-qiez6adj 13 15 . . . cord-296285-qiez6adj 14 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-296285-qiez6adj 14 2 Kuniya Kuniya NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 14 3 , , , cord-296285-qiez6adj 14 4 2020 2020 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 14 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-296285-qiez6adj 14 6 applied apply VBD cord-296285-qiez6adj 14 7 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 14 8 well well RB cord-296285-qiez6adj 14 9 - - HYPH cord-296285-qiez6adj 14 10 known know VBN cord-296285-qiez6adj 14 11 SEIR SEIR NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 14 12 compartmental compartmental JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 14 13 model model NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 14 14 to to TO cord-296285-qiez6adj 14 15 predict predict VB cord-296285-qiez6adj 14 16 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 14 17 epidemic epidemic NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 14 18 peak peak NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 14 19 of of IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 14 20 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 14 21 disease disease NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 14 22 in in IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 14 23 Japan Japan NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 14 24 . . . cord-296285-qiez6adj 15 1 He -PRON- PRP cord-296285-qiez6adj 15 2 used use VBD cord-296285-qiez6adj 15 3 data datum NNS cord-296285-qiez6adj 15 4 of of IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 15 5 daily daily JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 15 6 reported report VBN cord-296285-qiez6adj 15 7 cases case NNS cord-296285-qiez6adj 15 8 of of IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 15 9 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 15 10 , , , cord-296285-qiez6adj 15 11 from15 from15 JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 15 12 January January NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 15 13 to to IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 15 14 29 29 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 15 15 February February NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 15 16 2020 2020 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 15 17 . . . cord-296285-qiez6adj 16 1 He -PRON- PRP cord-296285-qiez6adj 16 2 founds found VBZ cord-296285-qiez6adj 16 3 that that IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 16 4 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 16 5 epidemic epidemic NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 16 6 peak peak NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 16 7 in in IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 16 8 Japan Japan NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 16 9 could could MD cord-296285-qiez6adj 16 10 possibly possibly RB cord-296285-qiez6adj 16 11 reach reach VB cord-296285-qiez6adj 16 12 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 16 13 early early JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 16 14 - - HYPH cord-296285-qiez6adj 16 15 middle middle JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 16 16 summer summer NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 16 17 . . . cord-296285-qiez6adj 17 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-296285-qiez6adj 17 2 Roosa Roosa NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 17 3 et et NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 17 4 al al NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 17 5 . . . cord-296285-qiez6adj 18 1 b b LS cord-296285-qiez6adj 18 2 , , , cord-296285-qiez6adj 18 3 2020 2020 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 18 4 ) ) -RRB- cord-296285-qiez6adj 18 5 forecast forecast VBD cord-296285-qiez6adj 18 6 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 18 7 covid-19 covid-19 JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 18 8 epidemic epidemic NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 18 9 in in IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 18 10 China China NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 18 11 over over IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 18 12 a a DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 18 13 short short JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 18 14 - - HYPH cord-296285-qiez6adj 18 15 term term NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 18 16 period period NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 18 17 using use VBG cord-296285-qiez6adj 18 18 generalized generalize VBN cord-296285-qiez6adj 18 19 logistic logistic JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 18 20 growth growth NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 18 21 model model NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 18 22 , , , cord-296285-qiez6adj 18 23 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 18 24 Richards Richards NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 18 25 growth growth NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 18 26 model model NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 18 27 , , , cord-296285-qiez6adj 18 28 and and CC cord-296285-qiez6adj 18 29 a a DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 18 30 sub sub JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 18 31 - - JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 18 32 epidemic epidemic JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 18 33 wave wave NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 18 34 model model NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 18 35 . . . cord-296285-qiez6adj 19 1 They -PRON- PRP cord-296285-qiez6adj 19 2 employed employ VBD cord-296285-qiez6adj 19 3 data datum NNS cord-296285-qiez6adj 19 4 of of IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 19 5 cumulative cumulative JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 19 6 confirmed confirm VBN cord-296285-qiez6adj 19 7 cases case NNS cord-296285-qiez6adj 19 8 between between IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 19 9 January January NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 19 10 22 22 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 19 11 , , , cord-296285-qiez6adj 19 12 2020 2020 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 19 13 and and CC cord-296285-qiez6adj 19 14 February February NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 19 15 9 9 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 19 16 , , , cord-296285-qiez6adj 19 17 2020 2020 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 19 18 . . . cord-296285-qiez6adj 20 1 They -PRON- PRP cord-296285-qiez6adj 20 2 found find VBD cord-296285-qiez6adj 20 3 that that IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 20 4 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 20 5 epidemic epidemic NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 20 6 has have VBZ cord-296285-qiez6adj 20 7 reached reach VBN cord-296285-qiez6adj 20 8 saturation saturation NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 20 9 in in IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 20 10 Hubei Hubei NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 20 11 and and CC cord-296285-qiez6adj 20 12 other other JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 20 13 provinces province NNS cord-296285-qiez6adj 20 14 of of IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 20 15 China China NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 20 16 .. .. . cord-296285-qiez6adj 21 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-296285-qiez6adj 21 2 Hamidouche Hamidouche NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 21 3 , , , cord-296285-qiez6adj 21 4 2020 2020 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 21 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-296285-qiez6adj 21 6 introduce introduce VBP cord-296285-qiez6adj 21 7 the the DT 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VB cord-296285-qiez6adj 24 15 5000 5000 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 24 16 on on IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 24 17 April April NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 24 18 7 7 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 24 19 th th XX cord-296285-qiez6adj 24 20 , , , cord-296285-qiez6adj 24 21 2020 2020 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 24 22 and and CC cord-296285-qiez6adj 24 23 it -PRON- PRP cord-296285-qiez6adj 24 24 will will MD cord-296285-qiez6adj 24 25 double double VB cord-296285-qiez6adj 24 26 to to IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 24 27 10000 10000 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 24 28 on on IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 24 29 April April NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 24 30 11 11 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 24 31 th th XX cord-296285-qiez6adj 24 32 , , , cord-296285-qiez6adj 24 33 2020 2020 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 24 34 . . . cord-296285-qiez6adj 25 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-296285-qiez6adj 25 2 Hamidouche Hamidouche NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 25 3 , , , cord-296285-qiez6adj 25 4 2020 2020 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 25 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-296285-qiez6adj 25 6 . . . cord-296285-qiez6adj 26 1 This this DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 26 2 study study NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 26 3 applies apply VBZ cord-296285-qiez6adj 26 4 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 26 5 Susceptible susceptible JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 26 6 - - HYPH cord-296285-qiez6adj 26 7 Infected Infected NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 26 8 - - HYPH cord-296285-qiez6adj 26 9 Recovered recovered JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 26 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-296285-qiez6adj 26 11 SIR SIR NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 26 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-296285-qiez6adj 26 13 model model NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 26 14 without without IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 26 15 demographics demographic NNS cord-296285-qiez6adj 26 16 ( ( -LRB- cord-296285-qiez6adj 26 17 no no DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 26 18 births birth NNS cord-296285-qiez6adj 26 19 , , , cord-296285-qiez6adj 26 20 deaths death NNS cord-296285-qiez6adj 26 21 , , , cord-296285-qiez6adj 26 22 or or CC cord-296285-qiez6adj 26 23 migration migration NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 26 24 ) ) -RRB- cord-296285-qiez6adj 27 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-296285-qiez6adj 27 2 Kermack Kermack NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 27 3 and and CC cord-296285-qiez6adj 27 4 McKendrick McKendrick NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 27 5 , , , cord-296285-qiez6adj 27 6 1927 1927 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 27 7 ; ; : cord-296285-qiez6adj 27 8 Dietz Dietz NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 27 9 1967 1967 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 27 10 ; ; : cord-296285-qiez6adj 27 11 Keeling Keeling NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 27 12 and and CC cord-296285-qiez6adj 27 13 Rohani Rohani NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 27 14 , , , cord-296285-qiez6adj 27 15 2008 2008 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 27 16 ) ) -RRB- cord-296285-qiez6adj 27 17 to to TO cord-296285-qiez6adj 27 18 predict predict VB cord-296285-qiez6adj 27 19 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 27 20 daily daily NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 27 21 confirmed confirm VBN cord-296285-qiez6adj 27 22 cases case NNS cord-296285-qiez6adj 27 23 of of IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 27 24 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 27 25 infection infection NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 27 26 in in IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 27 27 Algeria Algeria NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 27 28 . . . cord-296285-qiez6adj 28 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-296285-qiez6adj 28 2 use use VBP cord-296285-qiez6adj 28 3 data datum NNS cord-296285-qiez6adj 28 4 of of IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 28 5 reported report VBN cord-296285-qiez6adj 28 6 cases case NNS cord-296285-qiez6adj 28 7 between between IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 28 8 February February NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 28 9 25 25 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 28 10 , , , cord-296285-qiez6adj 28 11 2020 2020 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 28 12 and and CC cord-296285-qiez6adj 28 13 April April NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 28 14 17 17 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 28 15 , , , cord-296285-qiez6adj 28 16 2020 2020 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 28 17 . . . cord-296285-qiez6adj 29 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-296285-qiez6adj 29 2 predict predict VBP cord-296285-qiez6adj 29 3 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 29 4 epidemic epidemic NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 29 5 peak peak NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 29 6 and and CC cord-296285-qiez6adj 29 7 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 29 8 end end NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 29 9 - - HYPH cord-296285-qiez6adj 29 10 date date NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 29 11 of of IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 29 12 this this DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 29 13 disease disease NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 29 14 . . . cord-296285-qiez6adj 30 1 These these DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 30 2 results result NNS cord-296285-qiez6adj 30 3 could could MD cord-296285-qiez6adj 30 4 be be VB cord-296285-qiez6adj 30 5 helpful helpful JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 30 6 for for IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 30 7 decision decision NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 30 8 makers maker NNS cord-296285-qiez6adj 30 9 in in IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 30 10 Algeria Algeria NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 30 11 to to TO cord-296285-qiez6adj 30 12 implement implement VB cord-296285-qiez6adj 30 13 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-296285-qiez6adj 30 14 strategies strategy NNS cord-296285-qiez6adj 30 15 . . . 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cord-296285-qiez6adj 52 11 29 29 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 52 12 , , , cord-296285-qiez6adj 52 13 2020 2020 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 52 14 . . . cord-296285-qiez6adj 52 15 . . . cord-296285-qiez6adj 53 1 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 53 2 non non JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 53 3 stiff stiff JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 53 4 problems problem NNS cord-296285-qiez6adj 53 5 and and CC cord-296285-qiez6adj 53 6 Backward backward JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 53 7 Differentiation Differentiation NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 53 8 Formula Formula NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 53 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-296285-qiez6adj 53 10 BDF BDF NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 53 11 ) ) -RRB- cord-296285-qiez6adj 53 12 methods method NNS cord-296285-qiez6adj 53 13 with with IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 53 14 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 53 15 stiff stiff JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 53 16 problems problem NNS cord-296285-qiez6adj 53 17 ( ( -LRB- cord-296285-qiez6adj 53 18 Hindmarsh Hindmarsh NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 53 19 , , , cord-296285-qiez6adj 53 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cord-296285-qiez6adj 55 8 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 55 9 approximate approximate JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 55 10 functions function NNS cord-296285-qiez6adj 55 11 Where where WRB cord-296285-qiez6adj 55 12 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 55 13 parameter parameter NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 55 14 p p NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 55 15 is be VBZ cord-296285-qiez6adj 55 16 a a DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 55 17 constant constant JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 55 18 reflects reflect VBZ cord-296285-qiez6adj 55 19 a a DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 55 20 combination combination NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 55 21 of of IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 55 22 sampling sampling NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 55 23 efficiency efficiency NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 55 24 and and CC cord-296285-qiez6adj 55 25 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 55 26 detectability detectability NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 55 27 of of IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 55 28 infections infection NNS cord-296285-qiez6adj 55 29 ( ( -LRB- cord-296285-qiez6adj 55 30 King king NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 55 31 , , , cord-296285-qiez6adj 55 32 2017 2017 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 55 33 ) ) -RRB- cord-296285-qiez6adj 55 34 .We .We . cord-296285-qiez6adj 56 1 ignore ignore VB cord-296285-qiez6adj 56 2 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 56 3 constant constant JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 56 4 p p NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 56 5 in in IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 56 6 this this DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 56 7 study study NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 56 8 . . . cord-296285-qiez6adj 57 1 Thus thus RB cord-296285-qiez6adj 57 2 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 57 3 likelihood likelihood NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 57 4 function function NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 57 5 is be VBZ cord-296285-qiez6adj 57 6 defined define VBN cord-296285-qiez6adj 57 7 as as IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 57 8 follows follow VBZ cord-296285-qiez6adj 57 9 : : : cord-296285-qiez6adj 57 10 is be VBZ cord-296285-qiez6adj 57 11 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 57 12 author author NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 57 13 / / SYM cord-296285-qiez6adj 57 14 funder funder NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 57 15 , , , cord-296285-qiez6adj 57 16 who who WP cord-296285-qiez6adj 57 17 has have VBZ cord-296285-qiez6adj 57 18 granted grant VBN cord-296285-qiez6adj 57 19 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-296285-qiez6adj 57 20 a a DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 57 21 license license NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 57 22 to to TO cord-296285-qiez6adj 57 23 display display VB cord-296285-qiez6adj 57 24 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 57 25 preprint preprint NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 57 26 in in IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 57 27 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 57 28 . . . cord-296285-qiez6adj 58 1 The the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 58 2 copyright copyright NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 58 3 holder holder NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 58 4 for for IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 58 5 this this DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 58 6 preprint preprint NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 58 7 this this DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 58 8 version version NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 58 9 posted post VBN cord-296285-qiez6adj 58 10 April April NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 58 11 29 29 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 58 12 , , , cord-296285-qiez6adj 58 13 2020 2020 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 58 14 . . . cord-296285-qiez6adj 58 15 . . . cord-296285-qiez6adj 59 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.25.20079467 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.25.20079467 NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 59 2 doi doi NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 59 3 : : : cord-296285-qiez6adj 60 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 60 2 preprint preprint NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 60 3 5 5 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 60 4 function function NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 60 5 , , , cord-296285-qiez6adj 60 6 and and CC cord-296285-qiez6adj 60 7 therefore therefore RB cord-296285-qiez6adj 60 8 maximize maximize VBP cord-296285-qiez6adj 60 9 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 60 10 log log NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 60 11 likelihood likelihood NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 60 12 function function NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 60 13 . . . cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 1 This this DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 2 algorithm algorithm NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 3 is be VBZ cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 4 used use VBN cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 5 for for IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 6 solving solve VBG cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 7 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 8 unconstrained unconstrained JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 9 optimization optimization NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 10 problem problem NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 11 based base VBN cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 12 on on IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 13 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 14 iterative iterative JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 15 update update NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 16 of of IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 17 a a DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 18 simplex simplex NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 19 : : : cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 20 Where where WRB cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 21 The the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 22 procedure procedure NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 23 of of IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 24 estimation estimation NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 25 can can MD cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 26 be be VB cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 27 resumed resume VBN cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 28 in in IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 29 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 30 following follow VBG cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 31 three three CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 32 steps step NNS cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 33 ( ( -LRB- cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 34 Nsoesie Nsoesie NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 35 et et NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 36 al al NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 37 , , , cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 38 2013 2013 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 39 ) ) -RRB- cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 40 : : : cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 41 Step step NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 42 1 1 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 43 : : : cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 44 Select select VB cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 45 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 46 initial initial JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 47 parameters parameter NNS cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 48   NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 49 , , , cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 50 γ γ NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 51 and and CC cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 52 initialize initialize VB cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 53 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 54 SIR SIR NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 55 model model NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 56 and and CC cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 57 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 58 Nelder Nelder NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 59 - - HYPH cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 60 Mead Mead NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 61 method method NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 62 , , , cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 63 Step step NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 64 2 2 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 65 : : : cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 66 Run run VB cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 67 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 68 Nelder Nelder NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 69 - - HYPH cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 70 Mead Mead NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 71 algorithm algorithm NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 72 to to TO cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 73 get get VB cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 74 new new JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 75 parameters parameter NNS cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 76 which which WDT cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 77 will will MD cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 78 be be VB cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 79 used use VBN cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 80 in in IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 81 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 82 simulation simulation NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 83 and and CC cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 84 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 85 prediction prediction NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 86 of of IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 87 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 88 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 89 epidemic epidemic NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 61 90 . . . cord-296285-qiez6adj 62 1 All all PDT cord-296285-qiez6adj 62 2 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 62 3 calculations calculation NNS cord-296285-qiez6adj 62 4 were be VBD cord-296285-qiez6adj 62 5 conducted conduct VBN cord-296285-qiez6adj 62 6 as as IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 62 7 previously previously RB cord-296285-qiez6adj 62 8 stated state VBN cord-296285-qiez6adj 62 9 by by IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 62 10 Python Python NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 62 11 software software NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 62 12 version version NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 62 13 3.6.4 3.6.4 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 62 14 Empirical empirical JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 62 15 results result NNS cord-296285-qiez6adj 62 16 and and CC cord-296285-qiez6adj 62 17 discussion discussion NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 62 18 : : : cord-296285-qiez6adj 63 1 The the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 63 2 data datum NNS cord-296285-qiez6adj 63 3 were be VBD cord-296285-qiez6adj 63 4 obtained obtain VBN cord-296285-qiez6adj 63 5 from from IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 63 6 Johns Johns NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 63 7 Hopkins Hopkins NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 63 8 University University NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 63 9 , , , cord-296285-qiez6adj 63 10 Center Center NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 63 11 for for IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 63 12 systems system NNS cord-296285-qiez6adj 63 13 science science NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 63 14 and and CC cord-296285-qiez6adj 63 15 engineering engineering NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 64 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-296285-qiez6adj 64 2 Johns Johns NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 64 3 Hopkins Hopkins NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 64 4 University University NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 64 5 , , , cord-296285-qiez6adj 64 6 2020 2020 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 64 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-296285-qiez6adj 64 8 . . . cord-296285-qiez6adj 65 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-296285-qiez6adj 65 2 used use VBD cord-296285-qiez6adj 65 3 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 65 4 number number NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 65 5 of of IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 65 6 daily daily JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 65 7 reported report VBN cord-296285-qiez6adj 65 8 confirmed confirm VBN cord-296285-qiez6adj 65 9 cases case NNS cord-296285-qiez6adj 65 10 for for IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 65 11 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 65 12 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 65 13 epidemic epidemic NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 65 14 in in IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 65 15 Algeria Algeria NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 65 16 , , , cord-296285-qiez6adj 65 17 from from IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 65 18 25 25 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 65 19 February February NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 65 20 2020 2020 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 65 21 to to IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 65 22 17 17 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 65 23 April April NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 65 24 2020 2020 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 65 25 . . . cord-296285-qiez6adj 66 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-296285-qiez6adj 66 2 used use VBD cord-296285-qiez6adj 66 3 equation equation NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 66 4 ( ( -LRB- cord-296285-qiez6adj 66 5 is be VBZ cord-296285-qiez6adj 66 6 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 66 7 author author NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 66 8 / / SYM cord-296285-qiez6adj 66 9 funder funder NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 66 10 , , , cord-296285-qiez6adj 66 11 who who WP cord-296285-qiez6adj 66 12 has have VBZ cord-296285-qiez6adj 66 13 granted grant VBN cord-296285-qiez6adj 66 14 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-296285-qiez6adj 66 15 a a DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 66 16 license license NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 66 17 to to TO cord-296285-qiez6adj 66 18 display display VB cord-296285-qiez6adj 66 19 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 66 20 preprint preprint NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 66 21 in in IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 66 22 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 66 23 . . . cord-296285-qiez6adj 67 1 The the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 67 2 copyright copyright NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 67 3 holder holder NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 67 4 for for IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 67 5 this this DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 67 6 preprint preprint NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 67 7 this this DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 67 8 version version NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 67 9 posted post VBN cord-296285-qiez6adj 67 10 April April NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 67 11 29 29 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 67 12 , , , cord-296285-qiez6adj 67 13 2020 2020 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 67 14 . . . cord-296285-qiez6adj 67 15 . . . cord-296285-qiez6adj 68 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-296285-qiez6adj 68 2 substitute substitute VBP cord-296285-qiez6adj 68 3 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 68 4 new new JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 68 5 parameters parameter NNS cord-296285-qiez6adj 68 6 in in IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 68 7 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-296285-qiez6adj 68 8 SIR SIR NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 68 9 model model NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 68 10 to to TO cord-296285-qiez6adj 68 11 simulate simulate VB cord-296285-qiez6adj 68 12 and and CC cord-296285-qiez6adj 68 13 predict predict VB cord-296285-qiez6adj 68 14 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 68 15 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 68 16 epidemic epidemic NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 68 17 in in IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 68 18 Algeria Algeria NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 68 19 . . . cord-296285-qiez6adj 68 20 . . . cord-296285-qiez6adj 69 1 CC CC NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 69 2 - - HYPH cord-296285-qiez6adj 69 3 BY BY NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 69 4 - - HYPH cord-296285-qiez6adj 69 5 NC NC NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 69 6 - - HYPH cord-296285-qiez6adj 69 7 ND ND NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 69 8 4.0 4.0 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 69 9 International international JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 69 10 license license NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 70 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-296285-qiez6adj 70 2 is be VBZ cord-296285-qiez6adj 70 3 made make VBN cord-296285-qiez6adj 70 4 available available JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 70 5 under under IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 70 6 a a DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 71 1 is be VBZ cord-296285-qiez6adj 71 2 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 71 3 author author NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 71 4 / / SYM cord-296285-qiez6adj 71 5 funder funder NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 71 6 , , , cord-296285-qiez6adj 71 7 who who WP cord-296285-qiez6adj 71 8 has have VBZ cord-296285-qiez6adj 71 9 granted grant VBN cord-296285-qiez6adj 71 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-296285-qiez6adj 71 11 a a DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 71 12 license license NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 71 13 to to TO cord-296285-qiez6adj 71 14 display display VB cord-296285-qiez6adj 71 15 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 71 16 preprint preprint NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 71 17 in in IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 71 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 71 19 . . . cord-296285-qiez6adj 72 1 The the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 72 2 copyright copyright NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 72 3 holder holder NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 72 4 for for IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 72 5 this this DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 72 6 preprint preprint NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 72 7 this this DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 72 8 version version NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 72 9 posted post VBN cord-296285-qiez6adj 72 10 April April NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 72 11 29 29 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 72 12 , , , cord-296285-qiez6adj 72 13 2020 2020 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 72 14 . . . cord-296285-qiez6adj 72 15 _SP cord-296285-qiez6adj 73 1 In in IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 73 2 this this DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 73 3 study study NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 73 4 we -PRON- PRP cord-296285-qiez6adj 73 5 predict predict VBP cord-296285-qiez6adj 73 6 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 73 7 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ 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cord-296285-qiez6adj 76 3 of of IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 76 4 this this DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 76 5 epidemic epidemic NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 76 6 will will MD cord-296285-qiez6adj 76 7 be be VB cord-296285-qiez6adj 76 8 in in IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 76 9 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 76 10 month month NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 76 11 of of IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 76 12 October October NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 76 13 . . . cord-296285-qiez6adj 76 14 . . . cord-296285-qiez6adj 77 1 CC CC NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 77 2 - - HYPH cord-296285-qiez6adj 77 3 BY BY NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 77 4 - - HYPH cord-296285-qiez6adj 77 5 NC NC NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 77 6 - - HYPH cord-296285-qiez6adj 77 7 ND ND NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 77 8 4.0 4.0 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 77 9 International international JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 77 10 license license NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 78 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-296285-qiez6adj 78 2 is be VBZ cord-296285-qiez6adj 78 3 made make VBN cord-296285-qiez6adj 78 4 available 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cord-296285-qiez6adj 80 5 certified certify VBN cord-296285-qiez6adj 80 6 by by IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 80 7 peer peer NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 80 8 review review NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 80 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-296285-qiez6adj 81 1 The the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 81 2 copyright copyright NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 81 3 holder holder NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 81 4 for for IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 81 5 this this DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 81 6 preprint preprint NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 81 7 this this DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 81 8 version version NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 81 9 posted post VBN cord-296285-qiez6adj 81 10 April April NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 81 11 29 29 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 81 12 , , , cord-296285-qiez6adj 81 13 2020 2020 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 81 14 . . . cord-296285-qiez6adj 81 15 . . . cord-296285-qiez6adj 82 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.25.20079467 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.25.20079467 NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 82 2 doi doi NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 82 3 : : : cord-296285-qiez6adj 83 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 83 2 preprint preprint NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 83 3 8 8 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 84 1 Our -PRON- PRP$ cord-296285-qiez6adj 84 2 findings finding NNS cord-296285-qiez6adj 84 3 agree agree VBP cord-296285-qiez6adj 84 4 with with IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 84 5 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 84 6 results result NNS cord-296285-qiez6adj 84 7 of of IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 84 8 ( ( -LRB- cord-296285-qiez6adj 84 9 Kuniya Kuniya NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 84 10 , , , cord-296285-qiez6adj 84 11 2020 2020 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 84 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-296285-qiez6adj 84 13 in in IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 84 14 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 84 15 case case NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 84 16 of of IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 84 17 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 84 18 outbreak outbreak NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 84 19 in in IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 84 20 Japan Japan NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 84 21 , , , cord-296285-qiez6adj 84 22 and and CC cord-296285-qiez6adj 84 23 with with IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 84 24 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 84 25 WHO WHO NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 84 26 's 's POS cord-296285-qiez6adj 84 27 statement statement NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 84 28 that that IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 84 29 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 84 30 will will MD cord-296285-qiez6adj 84 31 maybe maybe RB cord-296285-qiez6adj 84 32 disappear disappear VB cord-296285-qiez6adj 84 33 in in IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 84 34 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 84 35 summer summer NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 84 36 ( ( -LRB- cord-296285-qiez6adj 84 37 Kuniya Kuniya NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 84 38 , , , cord-296285-qiez6adj 84 39 2020 2020 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 84 40 ) ) -RRB- cord-296285-qiez6adj 84 41 . . . cord-296285-qiez6adj 85 1 Following follow VBG cord-296285-qiez6adj 85 2 ( ( -LRB- cord-296285-qiez6adj 85 3 Kuniya Kuniya NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 85 4 , , , cord-296285-qiez6adj 85 5 2020 2020 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 85 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-296285-qiez6adj 85 7 we -PRON- PRP cord-296285-qiez6adj 85 8 suggest suggest VBP cord-296285-qiez6adj 85 9 that that IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 85 10 a a DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 85 11 strict strict JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 85 12 containment containment NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 85 13 strategy strategy NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 85 14 is be VBZ cord-296285-qiez6adj 85 15 needed need VBN cord-296285-qiez6adj 85 16 in in IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 85 17 Algeria Algeria NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 85 18 , , , cord-296285-qiez6adj 85 19 over over IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 85 20 a a DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 85 21 relatively relatively RB cord-296285-qiez6adj 85 22 long long JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 85 23 period period NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 85 24 , , , cord-296285-qiez6adj 85 25 to to TO cord-296285-qiez6adj 85 26 reduce reduce VB cord-296285-qiez6adj 85 27 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 85 28 epidemic epidemic NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 85 29 size size NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 85 30 . . . cord-296285-qiez6adj 86 1 Algerian Algerian NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 86 2 Ministry Ministry NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 86 3 of of IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 86 4 Health Health NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 86 5 Nelder Nelder NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 86 6 mead mead NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 86 7 user user NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 86 8 's 's POS cord-296285-qiez6adj 86 9 manual manual JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 86 10 Modeling Modeling NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 86 11 and and CC cord-296285-qiez6adj 86 12 Forecasting forecast VBG cord-296285-qiez6adj 86 13 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 86 14 Algiers Algiers NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 86 15 Stock Stock NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 86 16 Exchange Exchange NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 86 17 Returns return NNS cord-296285-qiez6adj 86 18 using use VBG cord-296285-qiez6adj 86 19 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 86 20 Box Box NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 86 21 - - HYPH cord-296285-qiez6adj 86 22 Jenkins Jenkins NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 86 23 Methodology Methodology NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 86 24 Epidemics Epidemics NNPS cord-296285-qiez6adj 86 25 and and CC cord-296285-qiez6adj 86 26 Rumours rumour NNS cord-296285-qiez6adj 86 27 : : : cord-296285-qiez6adj 86 28 A a DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 86 29 Survey Survey NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 86 30 Implementing implement VBG cord-296285-qiez6adj 86 31 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 86 32 Nelder Nelder NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 86 33 - - HYPH cord-296285-qiez6adj 86 34 Mead Mead NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 86 35 algorithm algorithm NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 86 36 with with IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 86 37 adaptive adaptive JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 86 38 parameters parameter NNS cord-296285-qiez6adj 87 1 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 87 2 outbreak outbreak NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 87 3 in in IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 87 4 Algeria Algeria NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 87 5 : : : cord-296285-qiez6adj 87 6 A a DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 87 7 mathematical mathematical JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 87 8 Model model NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 87 9 to to TO cord-296285-qiez6adj 87 10 predict predict VB cord-296285-qiez6adj 87 11 cumulative cumulative JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 87 12 cases case NNS cord-296285-qiez6adj 87 13 Exact exact VB cord-296285-qiez6adj 87 14 analytical analytical JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 87 15 solutions solution NNS cord-296285-qiez6adj 87 16 of of IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 87 17 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 87 18 Susceptible susceptible JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 87 19 - - HYPH cord-296285-qiez6adj 87 20 Infected Infected NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 87 21 - - HYPH cord-296285-qiez6adj 87 22 Recovered recovered JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 87 23 ( ( -LRB- cord-296285-qiez6adj 87 24 SIR SIR NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 87 25 ) ) -RRB- cord-296285-qiez6adj 87 26 epidemic epidemic NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 87 27 model model NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 87 28 and and CC cord-296285-qiez6adj 87 29 of of IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 87 30 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 87 31 SIR SIR NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 87 32 model model NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 87 33 with with IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 87 34 equal equal JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 87 35 deaths death NNS cord-296285-qiez6adj 87 36 and and CC cord-296285-qiez6adj 87 37 births birth NNS cord-296285-qiez6adj 87 38 ODEPACK ODEPACK NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 87 39 , , , cord-296285-qiez6adj 87 40 A a DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 87 41 Systematized systematize VBN cord-296285-qiez6adj 87 42 Collection Collection NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 87 43 of of IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 87 44 ODE ODE NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 87 45 Solvers Solvers NNPS cord-296285-qiez6adj 87 46 2019 2019 CD cord-296285-qiez6adj 87 47 novel novel NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 87 48 coronavirus coronavirus NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 87 49 ( ( -LRB- cord-296285-qiez6adj 87 50 nCoV nCoV NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 87 51 ) ) -RRB- cord-296285-qiez6adj 87 52 data data NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 87 53 repository repository NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 87 54 . . . cord-296285-qiez6adj 88 1 Center Center NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 88 2 for for IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 88 3 systems system NNS cord-296285-qiez6adj 88 4 science science NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 88 5 and and CC cord-296285-qiez6adj 88 6 engineering engineering NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 88 7 Forecasting forecasting NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 88 8 : : : cord-296285-qiez6adj 88 9 principles principle NNS cord-296285-qiez6adj 88 10 and and CC cord-296285-qiez6adj 88 11 practice practice NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 89 1 Modeling model VBG cord-296285-qiez6adj 89 2 infectious infectious JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 89 3 diseases disease NNS cord-296285-qiez6adj 89 4 in in IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 89 5 humans human NNS cord-296285-qiez6adj 89 6 and and CC cord-296285-qiez6adj 89 7 animals animal NNS cord-296285-qiez6adj 90 1 A a DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 90 2 Contribution contribution NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 90 3 to to IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 90 4 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 90 5 Mathematical Mathematical NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 90 6 Theory Theory NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 90 7 of of IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 90 8 Epidemics epidemic NNS cord-296285-qiez6adj 90 9 Introduction Introduction NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 90 10 to to IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 90 11 inference inference NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 90 12 : : : cord-296285-qiez6adj 90 13 parameter parameter NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 90 14 estimation estimation NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 90 15 . . . cord-296285-qiez6adj 91 1 ICTP ICTP NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 91 2 Workshop Workshop NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 91 3 on on IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 91 4 Mathematical Mathematical NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 91 5 Models Models NNPS cord-296285-qiez6adj 91 6 of of IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 91 7 Climate Climate NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 91 8 Variability Variability NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 91 9 , , , cord-296285-qiez6adj 91 10 Environmental Environmental NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 91 11 Change Change NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 91 12 and and CC cord-296285-qiez6adj 91 13 Infectious Infectious NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 91 14 Diseases Diseases NNPS cord-296285-qiez6adj 91 15 Prediction Prediction NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 91 16 of of IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 91 17 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 91 18 Epidemic Epidemic NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 91 19 Peak Peak NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 91 20 of of IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 91 21 Coronavirus Coronavirus NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 91 22 Disease Disease NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 91 23 in in IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 91 24 Japan Japan NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 92 1 A a DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 92 2 simplex simplex NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 92 3 method method NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 92 4 for for IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 92 5 function function NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 92 6 minimization minimization NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 92 7 A a DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 92 8 Simulation Simulation NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 92 9 Optimization Optimization NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 92 10 Approach Approach NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 92 11 to to IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 92 12 Epidemic Epidemic NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 92 13 Forecasting Forecasting NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 92 14 Automatic Automatic NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 92 15 Selection Selection NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 92 16 of of IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 92 17 Methods Methods NNPS cord-296285-qiez6adj 92 18 for for IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 92 19 Solving solve VBG cord-296285-qiez6adj 92 20 Stiff Stiff NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 92 21 and and CC cord-296285-qiez6adj 92 22 Nonstiff Nonstiff NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 92 23 Systems Systems NNPS cord-296285-qiez6adj 92 24 of of IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 92 25 Ordinary Ordinary NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 92 26 Differential Differential NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 92 27 Equations Equations NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 92 28 Short short JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 92 29 - - HYPH cord-296285-qiez6adj 92 30 term term NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 92 31 Forecasts forecast NNS cord-296285-qiez6adj 92 32 of of IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 92 33 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 92 34 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 92 35 Epidemic Epidemic NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 92 36 in in IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 92 37 Guangdong Guangdong NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 92 38 and and CC cord-296285-qiez6adj 92 39 Zhejiang Zhejiang NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 92 40 Real Real NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 92 41 - - HYPH cord-296285-qiez6adj 92 42 time time NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 92 43 forecasts forecast NNS cord-296285-qiez6adj 92 44 of of IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 92 45 the the DT cord-296285-qiez6adj 92 46 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 92 47 epidemic epidemic NN cord-296285-qiez6adj 92 48 in in IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 92 49 China China NNP cord-296285-qiez6adj 92 50 from from IN cord-296285-qiez6adj 92 51 Available available JJ cord-296285-qiez6adj 92 52 at at IN