id sid tid token lemma pos cord-289722-cc05jqb6 1 1 key key JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 2 1 : : : cord-289722-cc05jqb6 2 2 cord-289722-cc05jqb6 cord-289722-cc05jqb6 NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 2 3 authors author NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 2 4 : : : cord-289722-cc05jqb6 2 5 Bendtsen Bendtsen NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 2 6 Cano Cano NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 2 7 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 2 8 Oliva Oliva NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 2 9 ; ; : cord-289722-cc05jqb6 2 10 Cano Cano NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 2 11 Morales Morales NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 2 12 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 2 13 Sabrina Sabrina NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 2 14 ; ; : cord-289722-cc05jqb6 2 15 Bendtsen Bendtsen NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 2 16 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 2 17 Claus Claus NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 2 18 title title NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 2 19 : : : cord-289722-cc05jqb6 2 20 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 2 21 Modelling Modelling NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 2 22 : : : cord-289722-cc05jqb6 2 23 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 2 24 Effects effect NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 2 25 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 2 26 Social Social NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 2 27 Distancing Distancing NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 2 28 date date NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 2 29 : : : cord-289722-cc05jqb6 2 30 2020 2020 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 2 31 - - HYPH cord-289722-cc05jqb6 2 32 03 03 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 2 33 - - SYM cord-289722-cc05jqb6 2 34 30 30 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 2 35 journal journal NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 2 36 : : : cord-289722-cc05jqb6 2 37 nan nan NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 2 38 DOI DOI NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 2 39 : : : cord-289722-cc05jqb6 2 40 10.1101/2020.03.29.20046870 10.1101/2020.03.29.20046870 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 2 41 sha sha NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 2 42 : : : cord-289722-cc05jqb6 2 43 d2c4c3643d84b77fd2e072df696ce08b3ce757e7 d2c4c3643d84b77fd2e072df696ce08b3ce757e7 NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 2 44 doc_id doc_id CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 2 45 : : : cord-289722-cc05jqb6 2 46 289722 289722 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 2 47 cord_uid cord_uid NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 2 48 : : : cord-289722-cc05jqb6 2 49 cc05jqb6 cc05jqb6 XX cord-289722-cc05jqb6 3 1 The the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 3 2 purpose purpose NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 3 3 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 3 4 this this DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 3 5 article article NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 3 6 is be VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 3 7 to to TO cord-289722-cc05jqb6 3 8 reach reach VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 3 9 all all PDT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 3 10 those those DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 3 11 who who WP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 3 12 find find VBP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 3 13 it -PRON- PRP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 3 14 difficult difficult JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 3 15 to to TO cord-289722-cc05jqb6 3 16 become become VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 3 17 well well RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 3 18 informed informed JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 3 19 about about IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 3 20 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 3 21 repercussions repercussion NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 3 22 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 3 23 a a DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 3 24 lockdown lockdown NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 3 25 strategy strategy NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 3 26 to to TO cord-289722-cc05jqb6 3 27 tackle tackle VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 3 28 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 3 29 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 3 30 pandemic pandemic NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 3 31 and and CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 3 32 to to TO cord-289722-cc05jqb6 3 33 spark spark VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 3 34 discussion discussion NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 3 35 and and CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 3 36 thought thought NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 3 37 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 4 1 Here here RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 4 2 we -PRON- PRP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 4 3 use use VBP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 4 4 simple simple JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 4 5 stochastic stochastic JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 4 6 simulations simulation NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 4 7 to to TO cord-289722-cc05jqb6 4 8 evaluate evaluate VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 4 9 different different JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 4 10 approaches approach NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 4 11 taken take VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 4 12 to to TO cord-289722-cc05jqb6 4 13 tackle tackle VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 4 14 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 4 15 crisis crisis NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 4 16 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 4 17 along along IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 4 18 with with IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 4 19 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 4 20 efficiency efficiency NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 4 21 they -PRON- PRP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 4 22 will will MD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 4 23 hold hold VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 4 24 and and CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 4 25 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 4 26 number number NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 4 27 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 4 28 casualties casualty NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 4 29 they -PRON- PRP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 4 30 may may MD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 4 31 incur incur VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 4 32 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 5 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 5 2 is be VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 5 3 clear clear JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 5 4 that that IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 5 5 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 5 6 less less RBR cord-289722-cc05jqb6 5 7 strict strict JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 5 8 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 5 9 social social JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 5 10 distancing distance VBG cord-289722-cc05jqb6 5 11 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 5 12 more more JJR cord-289722-cc05jqb6 5 13 time time NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 5 14 it -PRON- PRP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 5 15 will will MD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 5 16 take take VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 5 17 for for IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 5 18 life life NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 5 19 to to TO cord-289722-cc05jqb6 5 20 return return VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 5 21 to to IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 5 22 normal normal JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 5 23 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 5 24 and and CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 5 25 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 5 26 more more JJR cord-289722-cc05jqb6 5 27 lives life NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 5 28 will will MD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 5 29 be be VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 5 30 at at IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 5 31 risk risk NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 5 32 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 6 1 This this DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 6 2 is be VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 6 3 shown show VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 6 4 through through IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 6 5 simulations simulation NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 6 6 formed form VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 6 7 by by IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 6 8 an an DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 6 9 open open JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 6 10 sourced source VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 6 11 code code NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 6 12 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 6 13 which which WDT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 6 14 allows allow VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 6 15 evaluation evaluation NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 6 16 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 6 17 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 6 18 outcomes outcome NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 6 19 from from IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 6 20 different different JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 6 21 intervention intervention NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 6 22 scenarios scenario NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 6 23 or or CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 6 24 conditions condition NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 6 25 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 7 1 As as IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 7 2 we -PRON- PRP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 7 3 know know VBP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 7 4 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 7 5 different different JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 7 6 countries country NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 7 7 have have VBP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 7 8 taken take VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 7 9 different different JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 7 10 approaches approach NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 7 11 to to TO cord-289722-cc05jqb6 7 12 try try VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 7 13 and and CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 7 14 keep keep VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 7 15 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 7 16 pandemic pandemic NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 7 17 at at IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 7 18 bay bay NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 7 19 ; ; : cord-289722-cc05jqb6 7 20 with with IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 7 21 China China NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 7 22 going go VBG cord-289722-cc05jqb6 7 23 on on RP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 7 24 complete complete JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 7 25 lockdown lockdown NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 7 26 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 7 27 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 7 28 UK UK NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 7 29 only only RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 7 30 going go VBG cord-289722-cc05jqb6 7 31 on on IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 7 32 semi semi JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 7 33 - - JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 7 34 lockdown lockdown NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 7 35 with with IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 7 36 people people NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 7 37 still still RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 7 38 going go VBG cord-289722-cc05jqb6 7 39 to to TO cord-289722-cc05jqb6 7 40 work work VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 7 41 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 7 42 and and CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 7 43 Sweden Sweden NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 7 44 not not RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 7 45 taking take VBG cord-289722-cc05jqb6 7 46 any any DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 7 47 particular particular JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 7 48 approach approach NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 7 49 to to IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 7 50 locking lock VBG cord-289722-cc05jqb6 7 51 down down RP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 7 52 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 7 53 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 7 54 most most RBS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 7 55 efficient efficient JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 7 56 method method NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 7 57 is be VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 7 58 unclear unclear JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 7 59 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 8 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 8 2 is be VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 8 3 hard hard JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 8 4 for for IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 8 5 everyone everyone NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 8 6 to to TO cord-289722-cc05jqb6 8 7 attain attain VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 8 8 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 8 9 necessary necessary JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 8 10 information information NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 8 11 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 8 12 and and CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 8 13 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 8 14 information information NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 8 15 is be VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 8 16 usually usually RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 8 17 rather rather RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 8 18 difficult difficult JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 8 19 for for IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 8 20 non non NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 8 21 - - NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 8 22 experts expert NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 8 23 to to TO cord-289722-cc05jqb6 8 24 understand understand VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 8 25 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 9 1 So so RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 9 2 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 9 3 this this DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 9 4 article article NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 9 5 attempts attempt VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 9 6 to to TO cord-289722-cc05jqb6 9 7 give give VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 9 8 people people NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 9 9 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 9 10 necessary necessary JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 9 11 information information NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 9 12 about about IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 9 13 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 9 14 changing change VBG cord-289722-cc05jqb6 9 15 aspects aspect NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 9 16 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 9 17 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 9 18 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 9 19 pandemic pandemic NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 9 20 from from IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 9 21 a a DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 9 22 scientific scientific JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 9 23 perspective perspective NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 9 24 but but CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 9 25 in in IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 9 26 a a DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 9 27 simple simple JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 9 28 manner manner NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 9 29 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 9 30 using use VBG cord-289722-cc05jqb6 9 31 only only JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 9 32 elementary elementary JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 9 33 level level NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 9 34 mathematics mathematic NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 9 35 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 10 1 Here here RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 10 2 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 10 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 10 4 make make VBP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 10 5 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 10 6 necessary necessary JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 10 7 tools tool NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 10 8 available available JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 10 9 to to TO cord-289722-cc05jqb6 10 10 undergo undergo VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 10 11 ' ' `` cord-289722-cc05jqb6 10 12 experiments experiment NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 10 13 ' ' '' cord-289722-cc05jqb6 10 14 at at IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 10 15 home home NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 10 16 ; ; : cord-289722-cc05jqb6 10 17 open open JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 10 18 sourced source VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 10 19 code code NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 10 20 is be VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 10 21 provided provide VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 10 22 in in IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 10 23 order order NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 10 24 for for IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 10 25 people people NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 10 26 to to TO cord-289722-cc05jqb6 10 27 see see VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 10 28 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 10 29 outcomes outcome NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 10 30 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 10 31 certain certain JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 10 32 actions action NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 10 33 by by IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 10 34 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 10 35 formation formation NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 10 36 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 10 37 graphs graph NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 10 38 or or CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 10 39 summary summary NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 10 40 statistics statistic NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 10 41 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 11 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 11 2 hope hope VBP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 11 3 that that IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 11 4 using use VBG cord-289722-cc05jqb6 11 5 this this DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 11 6 material material NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 11 7 will will MD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 11 8 help help VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 11 9 readers reader NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 11 10 put put VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 11 11 numbers number NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 11 12 shared share VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 11 13 on on IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 11 14 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 11 15 news news NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 11 16 into into IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 11 17 context context NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 11 18 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 12 1 Another another DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 12 2 goal goal NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 12 3 that that IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 12 4 this this DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 12 5 article article NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 12 6 aims aim VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 12 7 to to TO cord-289722-cc05jqb6 12 8 achieve achieve VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 12 9 is be VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 12 10 to to TO cord-289722-cc05jqb6 12 11 make make VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 12 12 people people NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 12 13 understand understand VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 12 14 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 12 15 consequences consequence NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 12 16 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 12 17 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 12 18 own own JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 12 19 actions action NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 12 20 when when WRB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 12 21 it -PRON- PRP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 12 22 comes come VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 12 23 to to IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 12 24 this this DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 12 25 pandemic pandemic NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 13 1 -everybody -everybody NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 13 2 has have VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 13 3 to to TO cord-289722-cc05jqb6 13 4 do do VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 13 5 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 13 6 bit bit NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 13 7 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 13 8 so so CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 13 9 it -PRON- PRP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 13 10 is be VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 13 11 crucial crucial JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 13 12 to to TO cord-289722-cc05jqb6 13 13 have have VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 13 14 everybody everybody NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 13 15 understand understand VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 13 16 what what WP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 13 17 it -PRON- PRP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 13 18 is be VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 13 19 that that IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 13 20 they -PRON- PRP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 13 21 exactly exactly RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 13 22 have have VBP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 13 23 to to TO cord-289722-cc05jqb6 13 24 do do VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 13 25 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 14 1 Since since IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 14 2 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 14 3 outbreak outbreak NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 14 4 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 14 5 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 14 6 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 14 7 virus virus NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 14 8 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 14 9 a a DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 14 10 number number NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 14 11 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 14 12 studies study NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 14 13 trying try VBG cord-289722-cc05jqb6 14 14 to to TO cord-289722-cc05jqb6 14 15 explain explain VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 14 16 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 14 17 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 14 18 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 14 19 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 14 20 outbreak outbreak NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 14 21 have have VBP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 14 22 been be VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 14 23 published publish VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 14 24 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 15 1 These these DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 15 2 studies study NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 15 3 draw draw VBP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 15 4 mainly mainly RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 15 5 from from IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 15 6 publicly publicly RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 15 7 available available JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 15 8 data datum NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 15 9 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 15 10 cases case NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 15 11 reported report VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 15 12 by by IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 15 13 hospitals hospital NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 15 14 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 15 15 WHO who WP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 15 16 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 15 17 China China NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 15 18 Centre Centre NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 15 19 for for IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 15 20 Control Control NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 15 21 Disease Disease NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 15 22 and and CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 15 23 other other JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 15 24 health health NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 15 25 care care NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 15 26 organisations organisation NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 15 27 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 16 1 There there EX cord-289722-cc05jqb6 16 2 seems seem VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 16 3 to to TO cord-289722-cc05jqb6 16 4 be be VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 16 5 consensus consensus NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 16 6 regarding regard VBG cord-289722-cc05jqb6 16 7 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 16 8 incubation incubation NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 16 9 period period NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 16 10 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 16 11 which which WDT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 16 12 has have VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 16 13 been be VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 16 14 reported report VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 16 15 with with IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 16 16 a a DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 16 17 mean mean NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 16 18 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 16 19 5.0 5.0 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 16 20 days day NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 16 21 [ [ -LRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 16 22 1 1 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 16 23 ] ] -RRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 16 24 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 16 25 6.4 6.4 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 16 26 days day NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 16 27 [ [ -LRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 16 28 2 2 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 16 29 ] ] -RRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 16 30 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 16 31 5.5 5.5 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 16 32 days day NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 16 33 [ [ -LRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 16 34 3 3 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 16 35 ] ] -RRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 16 36 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 17 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 17 2 seems seem VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 17 3 reasonable reasonable JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 17 4 to to TO cord-289722-cc05jqb6 17 5 assume assume VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 17 6 this this DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 17 7 to to TO cord-289722-cc05jqb6 17 8 be be VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 17 9 about about RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 17 10 5.5 5.5 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 17 11 days day NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 17 12 perhaps perhaps RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 17 13 with with IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 17 14 a a DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 17 15 range range NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 17 16 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 17 17 2 2 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 17 18 to to TO cord-289722-cc05jqb6 17 19 14 14 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 17 20 days day NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 17 21 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 17 22 also also RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 17 23 consistent consistent JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 17 24 with with IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 17 25 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 17 26 conclusions conclusion NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 17 27 in in IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 17 28 [ [ -LRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 17 29 4 4 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 17 30 ] ] -RRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 17 31 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 18 1 However however RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 18 2 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 18 3 as as IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 18 4 reported report VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 18 5 by by IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 18 6 Xu Xu NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 18 7 [ [ -LRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 18 8 5 5 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 18 9 ] ] -RRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 18 10 incubation incubation NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 18 11 appears appear VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 18 12 to to TO cord-289722-cc05jqb6 18 13 be be VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 18 14 longer long JJR cord-289722-cc05jqb6 18 15 in in IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 18 16 tertiary tertiary JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 18 17 patients patient NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 18 18 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 18 19 which which WDT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 18 20 will will MD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 18 21 have have VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 18 22 an an DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 18 23 effect effect NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 18 24 in in IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 18 25 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 18 26 UK UK NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 18 27 population population NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 18 28 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 19 1 From from IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 19 2 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 19 3 time time NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 19 4 when when WRB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 19 5 symptoms symptom NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 19 6 appear appear VBP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 19 7 to to IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 19 8 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 19 9 patient patient NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 19 10 's 's POS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 19 11 hospitalisation hospitalisation NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 19 12 ( ( -LRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 19 13 in in IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 19 14 those those DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 19 15 cases case NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 19 16 when when WRB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 19 17 needed need VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 19 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 19 19 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 19 20 median median NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 19 21 is be VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 19 22 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 19 23 7.0 7.0 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 19 24 days day NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 19 25 [ [ -LRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 19 26 2 2 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 19 27 ] ] -RRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 19 28 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 19 29 or or CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 19 30 as as IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 19 31 reported report VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 19 32 by by IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 19 33 Li Li NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 19 34 [ [ -LRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 19 35 1 1 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 19 36 ] ] -RRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 19 37 between between IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 19 38 3.3 3.3 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 19 39 and and CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 19 40 6.5 6.5 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 19 41 days day NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 19 42 depending depend VBG cord-289722-cc05jqb6 19 43 on on IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 19 44 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 19 45 outcome outcome NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 19 46 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 20 1 Fatality fatality NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 20 2 rate rate NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 20 3 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 20 4 patients patient NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 20 5 varies vary VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 20 6 depending depend VBG cord-289722-cc05jqb6 20 7 on on IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 20 8 whether whether IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 20 9 we -PRON- PRP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 20 10 are be VBP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 20 11 looking look VBG cord-289722-cc05jqb6 20 12 at at IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 20 13 overall overall JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 20 14 cases case NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 20 15 or or CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 20 16 only only RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 20 17 those those DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 20 18 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 20 19 hospitalised hospitalise VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 20 20 patients patient NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 20 21 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 21 1 Mortality mortality NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 21 2 for for IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 21 3 all all DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 21 4 known know VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 21 5 cases case NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 21 6 vary vary VBP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 21 7 from from IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 21 8 2 2 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 21 9 % % NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 21 10 and and CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 21 11 3 3 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 21 12 % % NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 21 13 [ [ -LRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 21 14 6 6 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 21 15 ] ] -RRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 21 16 to to IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 21 17 3.5 3.5 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 21 18 % % NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 21 19 [ [ -LRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 21 20 2 2 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 21 21 ] ] -RRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 21 22 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 21 23 while while IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 21 24 if if IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 21 25 looking look VBG cord-289722-cc05jqb6 21 26 at at IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 21 27 hospitalised hospitalise VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 21 28 patients patient NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 21 29 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 21 30 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 21 31 number number NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 21 32 goes go VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 21 33 up up IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 21 34 to to TO cord-289722-cc05jqb6 21 35 7 7 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 21 36 % % NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 21 37 [ [ -LRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 21 38 7 7 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 21 39 ] ] -RRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 21 40 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 21 41 4 4 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 21 42 % % NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 21 43 to to TO cord-289722-cc05jqb6 21 44 11 11 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 21 45 % % NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 21 46 [ [ -LRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 21 47 6 6 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 21 48 ] ] -RRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 21 49 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 21 50 8.2 8.2 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 21 51 % % NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 21 52 [ [ -LRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 21 53 4 4 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 21 54 ] ] -RRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 21 55 and and CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 21 56 even even RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 21 57 reaches reach VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 21 58 13.9 13.9 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 21 59 % % NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 21 60 [ [ -LRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 21 61 8 8 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 21 62 ] ] -RRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 21 63 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 22 1 Demographic demographic JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 22 2 is be VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 22 3 a a DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 22 4 sizable sizable JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 22 5 variable variable NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 22 6 in in IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 22 7 these these DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 22 8 rates rate NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 22 9 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 22 10 reaching reach VBG cord-289722-cc05jqb6 22 11 up up IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 22 12 to to IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 22 13 50%-75 50%-75 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 22 14 % % NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 22 15 for for IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 22 16 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 22 17 elderly elderly JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 22 18 and and CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 22 19 those those DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 22 20 patients patient NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 22 21 with with IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 22 22 comorbidities comorbiditie NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 22 23 [ [ -LRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 22 24 6 6 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 22 25 ] ] -RRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 22 26 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 23 1 Health health NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 23 2 care care NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 23 3 systems system NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 23 4 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 23 5 as as RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 23 6 well well RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 23 7 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 23 8 are be VBP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 23 9 major major JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 23 10 players player NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 23 11 in in IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 23 12 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 23 13 outcome outcome NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 23 14 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 23 15 hospitalised hospitalise VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 23 16 patients patient NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 23 17 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 24 1 Basic basic JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 24 2 reproduction reproduction NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 24 3 number number NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 24 4 or or CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 24 5 R r NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 24 6 0 0 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 24 7 has have VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 24 8 been be VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 24 9 reported report VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 24 10 between between IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 24 11 2 2 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 24 12 and and CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 24 13 3.5 3.5 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 24 14 [ [ -LRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 24 15 2 2 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 24 16 ] ] -RRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 24 17 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 24 18 2.2 2.2 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 24 19 and and CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 24 20 3.6 3.6 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 24 21 [ [ -LRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 24 22 9 9 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 24 23 ] ] -RRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 24 24 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 24 25 and and CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 24 26 2 2 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 24 27 and and CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 24 28 6.5 6.5 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 24 29 [ [ -LRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 24 30 6 6 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 24 31 ] ] -RRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 24 32 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 25 1 Finally finally RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 25 2 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 25 3 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 25 4 number number NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 25 5 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 25 6 asymptomatic asymptomatic JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 25 7 cases case NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 25 8 is be VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 25 9 difficult difficult JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 25 10 to to TO cord-289722-cc05jqb6 25 11 estimate estimate VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 25 12 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 26 1 Three three CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 26 2 cases case NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 26 3 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 26 4 group group NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 26 5 isolation isolation NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 26 6 have have VBP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 26 7 allowed allow VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 26 8 for for IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 26 9 some some DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 26 10 models model NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 26 11 to to TO cord-289722-cc05jqb6 26 12 appear appear VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 26 13 and and CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 26 14 asymptomatic asymptomatic JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 26 15 rate rate NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 26 16 has have VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 26 17 been be VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 26 18 reported report VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 26 19 at at IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 26 20 17.9 17.9 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 26 21 % % NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 26 22 [ [ -LRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 26 23 10 10 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 26 24 ] ] -RRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 26 25 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 26 26 30 30 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 26 27 % % NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 26 28 or or CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 26 29 less less JJR cord-289722-cc05jqb6 26 30 than than IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 26 31 a a DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 26 32 half half NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 26 33 [ [ -LRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 26 34 11 11 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 26 35 ] ] -RRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 26 36 and and CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 26 37 between between IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 26 38 50 50 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 26 39 % % NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 26 40 and and CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 26 41 75 75 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 26 42 % % NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 26 43 as as IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 26 44 reported report VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 26 45 by by IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 26 46 Prof. Prof. NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 26 47 Romagnani Romagnani NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 26 48 from from IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 26 49 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 26 50 University University NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 26 51 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 26 52 Florence Florence NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 26 53 [ [ -LRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 26 54 12 12 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 26 55 ] ] -RRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 26 56 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 27 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 27 2 use use VBP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 27 3 a a DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 27 4 very very RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 27 5 simply simply RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 27 6 Markov Markov NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 27 7 chain chain NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 27 8 model model NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 27 9 to to TO cord-289722-cc05jqb6 27 10 represent represent VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 27 11 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 27 12 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 27 13 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 27 14 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 27 15 epidemic epidemic NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 27 16 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 28 1 In in IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 28 2 Figure figure NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 28 3 1 1 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 28 4 it -PRON- PRP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 28 5 is be VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 28 6 illustrated illustrate VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 28 7 how how WRB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 28 8 individuals individual NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 28 9 can can MD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 28 10 move move VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 28 11 between between IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 28 12 states state NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 28 13 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 29 1 Starting start VBG cord-289722-cc05jqb6 29 2 from from IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 29 3 being be VBG cord-289722-cc05jqb6 29 4 healthy healthy JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 29 5 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 29 6 they -PRON- PRP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 29 7 move move VBP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 29 8 to to IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 29 9 becoming become VBG cord-289722-cc05jqb6 29 10 infected infect VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 29 11 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 29 12 then then RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 29 13 to to IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 29 14 shedding shed VBG cord-289722-cc05jqb6 29 15 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 29 16 virus virus NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 29 17 ( ( -LRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 29 18 i.e. i.e. FW cord-289722-cc05jqb6 29 19 being be VBG cord-289722-cc05jqb6 29 20 contagious contagious JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 29 21 ) ) -RRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 29 22 before before IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 29 23 becoming become VBG cord-289722-cc05jqb6 29 24 symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 29 25 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 30 1 From from IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 30 2 symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 30 3 they -PRON- PRP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 30 4 can can MD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 30 5 become become VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 30 6 sick sick JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 30 7 ( ( -LRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 30 8 which which WDT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 30 9 we -PRON- PRP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 30 10 use use VBP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 30 11 to to TO cord-289722-cc05jqb6 30 12 represent represent VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 30 13 hospitalised hospitalise VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 30 14 ) ) -RRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 30 15 and and CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 30 16 may may MD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 30 17 die die VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 30 18 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 31 1 The the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 31 2 recovery recovery NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 31 3 back back RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 31 4 to to IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 31 5 healthy healthy JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 31 6 ( ( -LRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 31 7 represented represent VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 31 8 as as IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 31 9 immune immune JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 31 10 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 31 11 which which WDT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 31 12 seems seem VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 31 13 plausible plausible JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 31 14 [ [ -LRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 31 15 13 13 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 31 16 ] ] -RRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 31 17 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 31 18 although although IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 31 19 it -PRON- PRP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 31 20 is be VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 31 21 not not RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 31 22 yet yet RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 31 23 well well RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 31 24 - - HYPH cord-289722-cc05jqb6 31 25 understood understand VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 31 26 if if IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 31 27 reinfections reinfection NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 31 28 can can MD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 31 29 occur occur VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 31 30 ) ) -RRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 31 31 can can MD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 31 32 happen happen VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 31 33 from from IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 31 34 either either CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 31 35 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 31 36 shedding shedding NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 31 37 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 31 38 symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 31 39 or or CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 31 40 sick sick JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 31 41 state state NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 31 42 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 32 1 People People NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 32 2 in in IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 32 3 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 32 4 shedding shedding JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 32 5 and and CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 32 6 symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 32 7 state state NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 32 8 infect infect VBP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 32 9 healthy healthy JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 32 10 people people NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 32 11 a a DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 32 12 rate rate NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 32 13 proportional proportional NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 32 14 to to IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 32 15 how how WRB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 32 16 many many JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 32 17 they -PRON- PRP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 32 18 are be VBP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 32 19 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 33 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 33 2 model model VBP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 33 3 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 33 4 transition transition NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 33 5 probabilities probability NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 33 6 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 33 7 p p NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 33 8 1 1 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 33 9 to to IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 33 10 p p NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 33 11 7 7 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 33 12 following follow VBG cord-289722-cc05jqb6 33 13 an an DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 33 14 Erlang Erlang NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 33 15 distribution distribution NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 33 16 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 33 17 represented represent VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 33 18 as as IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 33 19 E E NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 33 20 but but CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 33 21 scaled scale VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 33 22 when when WRB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 33 23 multiple multiple JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 33 24 outcomes outcome NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 33 25 from from IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 33 26 a a DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 33 27 state state NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 33 28 is be VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 33 29 possible possible JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 33 30 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 34 1 This this DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 34 2 allows allow VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 34 3 us -PRON- PRP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 34 4 to to TO cord-289722-cc05jqb6 34 5 mimic mimic VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 34 6 observed observed JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 34 7 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 34 8 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 34 9 when when WRB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 34 10 people people NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 34 11 move move VBP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 34 12 from from IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 34 13 one one CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 34 14 state state NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 34 15 to to IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 34 16 another another DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 34 17 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 1 The the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 2 transition transition NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 3 probability probability NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 4 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 5 p p NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 6 0 0 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 7 can can MD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 8 be be VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 9 represented represent VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 10 through through IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 11 a a DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 12 desired desire VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 13 basic basic JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 14 reproduction reproduction NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 15 number number NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 16 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 17 R r NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 18 0 0 NFP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 19 as as IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 20 it -PRON- PRP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 21 can can MD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 22 be be VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 23 easily easily RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 24 shown show VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 25 that that DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 26 : : : cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 27 To to TO cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 28 mimic mimic VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 29 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 30 epidemiological epidemiological JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 31 and and CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 32 clinial clinial JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 33 observations observation NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 34 summarised summarise VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 35 in in IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 36 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 37 introduction introduction NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 38 we -PRON- PRP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 39 use use VBP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 40 R r NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 41 0 0 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 42 = = SYM cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 43 2.75 2.75 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 44 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 45 ( ( -LRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 46 14 14 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 47 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 48 2 2 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 49 ) ) -RRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 50 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 51 and and CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 52 p p NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 53 4 4 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 54 ∼ ∼ NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 55 ( ( -LRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 56 1 1 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 57 − − NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 58 w w NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 59 7 7 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 60 ) ) -RRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 61 E(4 E(4 NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 62 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 63 1 1 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 64 ) ) -RRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 65 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 66 We -PRON- PRP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 67 empirically empirically RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 68 consider consider VBP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 69 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 70 recovery recovery NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 71 distributions distribution NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 72 and and CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 73 fix fix VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 74 these these DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 75 as as IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 76 p p NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 77 5 5 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 78 ∼ ∼ NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 79 w w NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 80 5 5 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 81 E(5 E(5 NNPS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 82 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 83 0.5 0.5 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 84 ) ) -RRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 85 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 86 p p NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 87 6 6 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 88 ∼ ∼ NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 89 w w NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 90 6 6 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 91 E(10 E(10 NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 92 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 93 1 1 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 94 ) ) -RRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 95 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 96 and and CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 97 p p NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 98 7 7 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 99 ∼ ∼ NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 100 w w NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 101 7 7 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 102 E(6 E(6 NNPS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 103 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 104 1 1 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 105 ) ) -RRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 106 with with IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 107 w w NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 108 5 5 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 109 = = SYM cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 110 0.85 0.85 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 35 111 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 36 1 w w NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 36 2 6 6 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 36 3 = = SYM cord-289722-cc05jqb6 36 4 0.9 0.9 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 36 5 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 36 6 and and CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 36 7 w w NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 36 8 7 7 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 36 9 = = SYM cord-289722-cc05jqb6 36 10 0.95 0.95 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 36 11 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 37 1 R R NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 37 2 [ [ -LRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 37 3 14 14 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 37 4 ] ] -RRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 37 5 was be VBD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 37 6 used use VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 37 7 to to TO cord-289722-cc05jqb6 37 8 implement implement VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 37 9 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 37 10 model model NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 37 11 and and CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 37 12 a a DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 37 13 markdown markdown NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 37 14 [ [ -LRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 37 15 15 15 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 37 16 ] ] -RRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 37 17 implementation implementation NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 37 18 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 37 19 all all DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 37 20 results result NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 37 21 is be VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 37 22 available available JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 37 23 as as IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 37 24 supplementary supplementary JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 37 25 information information NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 37 26 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 38 1 3 3 LS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 38 2 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 39 1 CC CC NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 39 2 - - : cord-289722-cc05jqb6 39 3 BY by IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 39 4 4.0 4.0 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 39 5 International international JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 39 6 license license NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 40 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 40 2 is be VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 40 3 made make VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 40 4 available available JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 40 5 under under IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 40 6 a a DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 41 1 is be VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 41 2 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 41 3 author author NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 41 4 / / SYM cord-289722-cc05jqb6 41 5 funder funder NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 41 6 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 41 7 who who WP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 41 8 has have VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 41 9 granted grant VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 41 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 41 11 a a DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 41 12 license license NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 41 13 to to TO cord-289722-cc05jqb6 41 14 display display VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 41 15 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 41 16 preprint preprint NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 41 17 in in IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 41 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 41 19 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 42 1 The the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 42 2 copyright copyright NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 42 3 holder holder NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 42 4 for for IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 42 5 this this DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 42 6 preprint preprint NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 42 7 this this DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 42 8 version version NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 42 9 posted post VBD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 42 10 March March NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 42 11 30 30 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 42 12 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 42 13 2020 2020 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 42 14 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 42 15 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 43 1 To to TO cord-289722-cc05jqb6 43 2 assess assess VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 43 3 how how WRB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 43 4 well well RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 43 5 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 43 6 model model NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 43 7 recapitulates recapitulate VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 43 8 what what WP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 43 9 we -PRON- PRP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 43 10 currently currently RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 43 11 know know VBP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 43 12 about about IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 43 13 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 43 14 we -PRON- PRP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 43 15 conduct conduct VBP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 43 16 a a DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 43 17 simulation simulation NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 43 18 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 43 19 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 43 20 basic basic JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 43 21 model model NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 43 22 and and CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 43 23 investigate investigate VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 43 24 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 43 25 distributions distribution NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 43 26 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 43 27 time time NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 43 28 between between IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 43 29 events event NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 43 30 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 43 31 as as IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 43 32 shown show VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 43 33 in in IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 43 34 Figure figure NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 43 35 2 2 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 43 36 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 44 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 44 2 observe observe VBP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 44 3 a a DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 44 4 time time NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 44 5 from from IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 44 6 infection infection NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 44 7 to to IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 44 8 becoming become VBG cord-289722-cc05jqb6 44 9 symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 44 10 between between IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 44 11 approximately approximately RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 44 12 2 2 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 44 13 and and CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 44 14 14 14 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 44 15 days day NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 44 16 with with IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 44 17 a a DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 44 18 mode mode NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 44 19 around around IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 44 20 day day NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 44 21 6 6 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 44 22 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 45 1 Time time NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 45 2 from from IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 45 3 symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 45 4 to to IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 45 5 sick sick JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 45 6 is be VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 45 7 observed observe VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 45 8 to to TO cord-289722-cc05jqb6 45 9 peak peak VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 45 10 at at IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 45 11 7 7 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 45 12 to to TO cord-289722-cc05jqb6 45 13 8 8 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 45 14 days day NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 45 15 and and CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 45 16 time time NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 45 17 from from IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 45 18 hospitalisation hospitalisation NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 45 19 to to IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 45 20 death death NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 45 21 varies vary VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 45 22 between between IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 45 23 1 1 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 45 24 and and CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 45 25 10 10 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 45 26 days day NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 45 27 approximately approximately RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 45 28 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 46 1 To to TO cord-289722-cc05jqb6 46 2 compare compare VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 46 3 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 46 4 initial initial JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 46 5 trajectories trajectory NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 46 6 for for IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 46 7 mortalities mortality NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 46 8 and and CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 46 9 hospitalised hospitalise VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 46 10 with with IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 46 11 what what WP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 46 12 has have VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 46 13 been be VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 46 14 observed observe VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 46 15 in in IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 46 16 Italy Italy NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 46 17 and and CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 46 18 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 46 19 United United NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 46 20 Kingdom Kingdom NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 46 21 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 46 22 we -PRON- PRP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 46 23 overlay overlay VBP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 46 24 data datum NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 46 25 for for IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 46 26 either either DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 46 27 country country NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 46 28 as as IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 46 29 shown show VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 46 30 in in IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 46 31 Figure Figure NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 46 32 3 3 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 46 33 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 47 1 To to TO cord-289722-cc05jqb6 47 2 understand understand VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 47 3 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 47 4 effect effect NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 47 5 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 47 6 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 47 7 virus virus NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 47 8 at at IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 47 9 population population NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 47 10 scale scale NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 47 11 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 47 12 we -PRON- PRP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 47 13 simulate simulate VBP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 47 14 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 47 15 effect effect NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 47 16 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 47 17 a a DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 47 18 constant constant JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 47 19 R r NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 47 20 0 0 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 47 21 = = SYM cord-289722-cc05jqb6 47 22 2.75 2.75 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 47 23 for for IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 47 24 a a DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 47 25 population population NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 47 26 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 47 27 60 60 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 47 28 million million CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 47 29 which which WDT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 47 30 is be VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 47 31 seeded seed VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 47 32 by by IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 47 33 10 10 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 47 34 infected infected JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 47 35 individuals individual NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 47 36 on on IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 47 37 day day NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 47 38 1 1 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 47 39 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 48 1 The the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 48 2 results result NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 48 3 are be VBP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 48 4 shown show VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 48 5 on on IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 48 6 Figure Figure NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 48 7 4 4 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 48 8 and and CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 48 9 we -PRON- PRP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 48 10 observe observe VBP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 48 11 an an DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 48 12 overall overall JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 48 13 duration duration NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 48 14 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 48 15 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 48 16 epidemic epidemic NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 48 17 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 48 18 149 149 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 48 19 days day NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 48 20 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 48 21 with with IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 48 22 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 48 23 number number NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 48 24 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 48 25 people people NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 48 26 sick sick JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 48 27 peaking peak VBG cord-289722-cc05jqb6 48 28 on on IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 48 29 day day NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 48 30 88 88 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 48 31 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 49 1 The the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 49 2 overall overall JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 49 3 mortality mortality NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 49 4 rate rate NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 49 5 is be VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 49 6 1.32 1.32 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 49 7 % % NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 49 8 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 49 9 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 50 1 CC CC NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 50 2 - - : cord-289722-cc05jqb6 50 3 BY by IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 50 4 4.0 4.0 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 50 5 International international JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 50 6 license license NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 51 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 51 2 is be VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 51 3 made make VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 51 4 available available JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 51 5 under under IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 51 6 a a DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 52 1 is be VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 52 2 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 52 3 author author NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 52 4 / / SYM cord-289722-cc05jqb6 52 5 funder funder NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 52 6 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 52 7 who who WP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 52 8 has have VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 52 9 granted grant VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 52 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 52 11 a a DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 52 12 license license NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 52 13 to to TO cord-289722-cc05jqb6 52 14 display display VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 52 15 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 52 16 preprint preprint NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 52 17 in in IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 52 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 52 19 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 52 20 _SP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 52 21 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 53 1 CC CC NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 53 2 - - : cord-289722-cc05jqb6 53 3 BY by IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 53 4 4.0 4.0 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 53 5 International international JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 53 6 license license NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 54 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 54 2 is be VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 54 3 made make VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 54 4 available available JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 54 5 under under IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 54 6 a a DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 55 1 is be VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 55 2 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 55 3 author author NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 55 4 / / SYM cord-289722-cc05jqb6 55 5 funder funder NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 55 6 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 55 7 who who WP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 55 8 has have VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 55 9 granted grant VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 55 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 55 11 a a DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 55 12 license license NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 55 13 to to TO cord-289722-cc05jqb6 55 14 display display VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 55 15 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 55 16 preprint preprint NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 55 17 in in IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 55 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 55 19 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 56 1 The the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 56 2 copyright copyright NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 56 3 holder holder NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 56 4 for for IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 56 5 this this DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 56 6 preprint preprint NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 56 7 this this DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 56 8 version version NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 56 9 posted post VBD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 56 10 March March NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 56 11 30 30 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 56 12 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 56 13 2020 2020 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 56 14 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 56 15 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 57 1 Next next RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 57 2 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 57 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 57 4 consider consider VBP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 57 5 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 57 6 effect effect NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 57 7 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 57 8 social social JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 57 9 distancing distancing NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 57 10 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 58 1 This this DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 58 2 can can MD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 58 3 readily readily RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 58 4 be be VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 58 5 implemented implement VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 58 6 in in IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 58 7 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 58 8 model model NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 58 9 simply simply RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 58 10 by by IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 58 11 redefining redefine VBG cord-289722-cc05jqb6 58 12 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 58 13 basic basic JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 58 14 reproduction reproduction NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 58 15 number number NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 58 16 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 58 17 R r NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 58 18 0 0 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 58 19 at at IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 58 20 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 58 21 day day NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 58 22 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 58 23 measures measure NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 58 24 are be VBP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 58 25 implemented implement VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 58 26 to to TO cord-289722-cc05jqb6 58 27 reflect reflect VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 58 28 a a DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 58 29 sufficient sufficient JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 58 30 decline decline NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 58 31 in in IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 58 32 how how WRB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 58 33 many many JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 58 34 people people NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 58 35 each each DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 58 36 shedding shed VBG cord-289722-cc05jqb6 58 37 or or CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 58 38 symptomatic symptomatic JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 58 39 person person NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 58 40 will will MD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 58 41 infect infect VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 58 42 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 59 1 On on IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 59 2 one one CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 59 3 extreme extreme NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 59 4 we -PRON- PRP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 59 5 have have VBP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 59 6 perfect perfect JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 59 7 social social JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 59 8 distancing distancing NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 59 9 with with IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 59 10 R r NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 59 11 0 0 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 59 12 = = SYM cord-289722-cc05jqb6 59 13 0 0 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 60 1 but but CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 60 2 we -PRON- PRP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 60 3 also also RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 60 4 investigate investigate VBP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 60 5 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 60 6 effect effect NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 60 7 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 60 8 R r NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 60 9 0 0 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 60 10 = = SYM cord-289722-cc05jqb6 60 11 0.5 0.5 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 60 12 and and CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 60 13 R r NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 60 14 = = SYM cord-289722-cc05jqb6 60 15 0.75 0.75 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 60 16 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 61 1 Day day NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 61 2 55 55 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 61 3 is be VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 61 4 used use VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 61 5 for for IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 61 6 initiating initiate VBG cord-289722-cc05jqb6 61 7 social social JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 61 8 distancing distancing NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 61 9 since since IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 61 10 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 61 11 simulations simulation NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 61 12 here here RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 61 13 showed show VBD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 61 14 337 337 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 61 15 dead dead JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 61 16 and and CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 61 17 5486 5486 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 61 18 sick sick JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 61 19 consistent consistent JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 61 20 with with IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 61 21 reported reported JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 61 22 numbers number NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 61 23 on on IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 61 24 23 23 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 61 25 March March NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 61 26 2020 2020 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 61 27 when when WRB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 61 28 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 61 29 United United NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 61 30 Kingdom Kingdom NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 61 31 initiated initiate VBD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 61 32 lockdown lockdown NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 61 33 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 62 1 In in IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 62 2 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 62 3 case case NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 62 4 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 62 5 perfect perfect JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 62 6 social social JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 62 7 distancing distance VBG cord-289722-cc05jqb6 62 8 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 62 9 mortality mortality NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 62 10 rate rate NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 62 11 is be VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 62 12 only only RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 62 13 0.04 0.04 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 62 14 % % NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 62 15 ( ( -LRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 62 16 21474 21474 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 62 17 dead dead JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 62 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 62 19 and and CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 62 20 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 62 21 epidemic epidemic NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 62 22 is be VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 62 23 resolved resolve VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 62 24 by by IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 62 25 day day NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 62 26 90 90 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 62 27 with with IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 62 28 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 62 29 number number NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 62 30 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 62 31 people people NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 62 32 sick sick JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 62 33 peaking peak VBG cord-289722-cc05jqb6 62 34 on on IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 62 35 day day NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 62 36 70 70 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 62 37 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 63 1 In in IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 63 2 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 63 3 case case NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 63 4 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 63 5 a a DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 63 6 more more RBR cord-289722-cc05jqb6 63 7 relaxed relaxed JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 63 8 social social JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 63 9 distancing distancing NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 63 10 with with IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 63 11 R r NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 63 12 0 0 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 63 13 = = NFP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 64 1 0.50 0.50 NFP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 64 2 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 64 3 mortality mortality NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 64 4 rate rate NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 64 5 is be VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 64 6 0.13 0.13 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 64 7 % % NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 64 8 ( ( -LRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 64 9 79781 79781 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 64 10 dead dead JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 64 11 ) ) -RRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 64 12 without without IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 64 13 having have VBG cord-289722-cc05jqb6 64 14 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 64 15 epidemic epidemic NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 64 16 resolved resolve VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 64 17 by by IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 64 18 day day NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 64 19 250 250 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 64 20 and and CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 64 21 with with IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 64 22 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 64 23 number number NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 64 24 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 64 25 people people NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 64 26 sick sick JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 64 27 peaking peak VBG cord-289722-cc05jqb6 64 28 on on IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 64 29 day day NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 64 30 71 71 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 64 31 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 65 1 A a DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 65 2 somewhat somewhat RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 65 3 stricter strict JJR cord-289722-cc05jqb6 65 4 social social JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 65 5 distancing distancing NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 65 6 with with IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 65 7 R r NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 65 8 0 0 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 65 9 = = SYM cord-289722-cc05jqb6 65 10 0.25 0.25 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 65 11 would would MD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 65 12 resolve resolve VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 65 13 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 65 14 epidemic epidemic NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 65 15 by by IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 65 16 day day NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 65 17 189 189 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 65 18 and and CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 65 19 lead lead VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 65 20 to to IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 65 21 32998 32998 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 65 22 dead dead JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 65 23 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 66 1 Finally finally RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 66 2 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 66 3 if if IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 66 4 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 66 5 social social JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 66 6 distancing distancing NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 66 7 is be VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 66 8 relaxed relaxed JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 66 9 to to IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 66 10 R r NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 66 11 0 0 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 66 12 = = NFP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 67 1 0.75 0.75 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 67 2 we -PRON- PRP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 67 3 observe observe VBP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 67 4 a a DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 67 5 much much RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 67 6 later later JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 67 7 peak peak NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 67 8 in in IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 67 9 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 67 10 number number NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 67 11 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 67 12 people people NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 67 13 sick sick JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 67 14 on on IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 67 15 day day NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 67 16 112 112 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 67 17 and and CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 67 18 also also RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 67 19 a a DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 67 20 much much RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 67 21 larger large JJR cord-289722-cc05jqb6 67 22 mortality mortality NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 67 23 rate rate NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 67 24 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 67 25 0.55 0.55 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 67 26 % % NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 67 27 ( ( -LRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 67 28 330964 330964 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 67 29 dead dead JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 67 30 ) ) -RRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 67 31 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 67 32 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 68 1 CC CC NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 68 2 - - : cord-289722-cc05jqb6 68 3 BY by IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 68 4 4.0 4.0 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 68 5 International international JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 68 6 license license NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 69 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 69 2 is be VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 69 3 made make VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 69 4 available available JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 69 5 under under IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 69 6 a a DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 70 1 is be VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 70 2 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 70 3 author author NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 70 4 / / SYM cord-289722-cc05jqb6 70 5 funder funder NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 70 6 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 70 7 who who WP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 70 8 has have VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 70 9 granted grant VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 70 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 70 11 a a DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 70 12 license license NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 70 13 to to TO cord-289722-cc05jqb6 70 14 display display VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 70 15 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 70 16 preprint preprint NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 70 17 in in IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 70 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 70 19 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 71 1 The the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 71 2 copyright copyright NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 71 3 holder holder NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 71 4 for for IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 71 5 this this DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 71 6 preprint preprint NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 71 7 this this DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 71 8 version version NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 71 9 posted post VBD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 71 10 March March NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 71 11 30 30 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 71 12 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 71 13 2020 2020 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 71 14 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 71 15 _SP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 71 16 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 72 1 CC CC NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 72 2 - - : cord-289722-cc05jqb6 72 3 BY by IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 72 4 4.0 4.0 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 72 5 International international JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 72 6 license license NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 73 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 73 2 is be VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 73 3 made make VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 73 4 available available JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 73 5 under under IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 73 6 a a DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 74 1 is be VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 74 2 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 74 3 author author NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 74 4 / / SYM cord-289722-cc05jqb6 74 5 funder funder NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 74 6 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 74 7 who who WP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 74 8 has have VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 74 9 granted grant VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 74 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 74 11 a a DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 74 12 license license NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 74 13 to to TO cord-289722-cc05jqb6 74 14 display display VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 74 15 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 74 16 preprint preprint NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 74 17 in in IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 74 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 74 19 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 75 1 The the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 75 2 copyright copyright NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 75 3 holder holder NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 75 4 for for IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 75 5 this this DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 75 6 preprint preprint NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 75 7 this this DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 75 8 version version NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 75 9 posted post VBD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 75 10 March March NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 75 11 30 30 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 75 12 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 75 13 2020 2020 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 75 14 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 75 15 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 76 1 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.29.20046870 https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.29.20046870 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 76 2 doi doi NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 76 3 : : : cord-289722-cc05jqb6 77 1 medRxiv medRxiv NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 77 2 preprint preprint NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 78 1 As as IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 78 2 can can MD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 78 3 be be VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 78 4 seen see VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 78 5 from from IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 78 6 Figure figure NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 78 7 2 2 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 78 8 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 78 9 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 78 10 simulations simulation NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 78 11 displayed display VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 78 12 above above RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 78 13 correlate correlate VBP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 78 14 well well RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 78 15 with with IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 78 16 data datum NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 78 17 found find VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 78 18 in in IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 78 19 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 78 20 biomedical biomedical JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 78 21 literature literature NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 78 22 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 79 1 As as IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 79 2 seen see VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 79 3 in in IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 79 4 Figure Figure NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 79 5 3 3 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 79 6 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 79 7 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 79 8 number number NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 79 9 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 79 10 deaths death NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 79 11 in in IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 79 12 Italy Italy NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 79 13 and and CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 79 14 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 79 15 United United NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 79 16 Kingdom Kingdom NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 79 17 correlate correlate VBP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 79 18 well well RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 79 19 with with IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 79 20 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 79 21 predicted predict VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 79 22 deaths death NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 79 23 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 80 1 The the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 80 2 number number NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 80 3 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 80 4 recorded record VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 80 5 cases case NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 80 6 also also RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 80 7 conform conform VBP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 80 8 well well JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 80 9 with with IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 80 10 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 80 11 simulation simulation NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 80 12 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 80 13 however however RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 80 14 they -PRON- PRP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 80 15 may may MD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 80 16 be be VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 80 17 slightly slightly RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 80 18 higher high JJR cord-289722-cc05jqb6 80 19 due due IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 80 20 to to IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 80 21 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 80 22 larger large JJR cord-289722-cc05jqb6 80 23 number number NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 80 24 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 80 25 people people NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 80 26 getting get VBG cord-289722-cc05jqb6 80 27 tested test VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 80 28 than than IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 80 29 actually actually RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 80 30 being be VBG cord-289722-cc05jqb6 80 31 hospitalised hospitalise VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 80 32 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 81 1 All all DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 81 2 in in RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 81 3 all all DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 81 4 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 81 5 it -PRON- PRP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 81 6 is be VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 81 7 clearly clearly RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 81 8 seen see VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 81 9 that that IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 81 10 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 81 11 simulation simulation NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 81 12 overall overall RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 81 13 reflects reflect VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 81 14 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 81 15 available available JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 81 16 data datum NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 81 17 well well RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 81 18 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 82 1 Now now RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 82 2 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 82 3 looking look VBG cord-289722-cc05jqb6 82 4 at at IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 82 5 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 82 6 simulations simulation NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 82 7 for for IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 82 8 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 82 9 UK UK NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 82 10 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 82 11 we -PRON- PRP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 82 12 can can MD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 82 13 explore explore VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 82 14 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 82 15 different different JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 82 16 outcomes outcome NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 82 17 for for IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 82 18 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 82 19 different different JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 82 20 approaches approach NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 82 21 taken take VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 82 22 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 83 1 If if IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 83 2 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 83 3 like like IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 83 4 Sweden Sweden NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 83 5 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 83 6 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 83 7 UK UK NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 83 8 were be VBD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 83 9 to to TO cord-289722-cc05jqb6 83 10 take take VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 83 11 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 83 12 route route NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 83 13 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 83 14 relying rely VBG cord-289722-cc05jqb6 83 15 on on IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 83 16 herd herd NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 83 17 immunity immunity NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 83 18 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 83 19 as as IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 83 20 seen see VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 83 21 in in IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 83 22 Figure Figure NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 83 23 4 4 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 83 24 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 84 1 almost almost RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 84 2 all all DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 84 3 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 84 4 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 84 5 population population NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 84 6 becomes become VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 84 7 immune immune JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 84 8 ( ( -LRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 84 9 with with IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 84 10 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 84 11 exception exception NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 84 12 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 84 13 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 84 14 1.3 1.3 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 84 15 % % NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 84 16 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 84 17 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 84 18 population population NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 84 19 that that WDT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 84 20 die die VBP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 84 21 ) ) -RRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 84 22 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 85 1 The the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 85 2 length length NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 85 3 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 85 4 time time NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 85 5 that that IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 85 6 this this DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 85 7 will will MD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 85 8 take take VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 85 9 is be VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 85 10 just just RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 85 11 over over IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 85 12 three three CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 85 13 months month NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 85 14 as as IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 85 15 seen see VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 85 16 in in IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 85 17 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 85 18 graphs graph NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 85 19 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 86 1 So so RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 86 2 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 86 3 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 86 4 result result NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 86 5 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 86 6 this this DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 86 7 approach approach NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 86 8 would would MD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 86 9 be be VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 86 10 a a DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 86 11 relatively relatively RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 86 12 fast fast JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 86 13 outcome outcome NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 86 14 with with IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 86 15 a a DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 86 16 large large JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 86 17 percentage percentage NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 86 18 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 86 19 people people NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 86 20 immune immune JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 86 21 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 86 22 but but CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 86 23 with with IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 86 24 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 86 25 downside downside NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 86 26 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 86 27 having have VBG cord-289722-cc05jqb6 86 28 an an DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 86 29 estimated estimate VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 86 30 800,000 800,000 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 86 31 mortalities mortality NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 86 32 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 87 1 However however RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 87 2 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 87 3 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 87 4 UK UK NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 87 5 has have VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 87 6 not not RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 87 7 taken take VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 87 8 this this DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 87 9 approach approach NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 87 10 and and CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 87 11 has have VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 87 12 instead instead RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 87 13 decided decide VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 87 14 to to TO cord-289722-cc05jqb6 87 15 adopt adopt VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 87 16 a a DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 87 17 social social JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 87 18 distancing distancing NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 87 19 approach approach NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 87 20 and and CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 87 21 go go VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 87 22 on on IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 87 23 lockdown lockdown NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 87 24 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 88 1 If if IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 88 2 UK UK NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 88 3 's 's POS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 88 4 lockdown lockdown NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 88 5 goes go VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 88 6 perfectly perfectly RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 88 7 ( ( -LRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 88 8 as as IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 88 9 shown show VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 88 10 in in IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 88 11 Figure Figure NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 88 12 5 5 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 88 13 ) ) -RRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 88 14 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 88 15 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 88 16 pandemic pandemic NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 88 17 will will MD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 88 18 be be VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 88 19 resolved resolve VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 88 20 in in IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 88 21 roughly roughly RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 88 22 1.5 1.5 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 88 23 months month NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 88 24 with with IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 88 25 only only RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 88 26 21 21 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 88 27 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 88 28 000 000 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 88 29 dead dead JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 88 30 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 89 1 However however RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 89 2 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 89 3 seeing see VBG cord-289722-cc05jqb6 89 4 as as IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 89 5 UK UK NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 89 6 is be VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 89 7 only only RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 89 8 going go VBG cord-289722-cc05jqb6 89 9 on on IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 89 10 a a DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 89 11 semi semi JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 89 12 - - JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 89 13 lockdown lockdown JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 89 14 ( ( -LRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 89 15 with with IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 89 16 e.g. e.g. RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 89 17 many many JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 89 18 people people NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 89 19 still still RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 89 20 going go VBG cord-289722-cc05jqb6 89 21 to to TO cord-289722-cc05jqb6 89 22 work work VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 89 23 and and CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 89 24 using use VBG cord-289722-cc05jqb6 89 25 public public JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 89 26 transportation transportation NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 89 27 ) ) -RRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 89 28 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 89 29 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 89 30 likelihood likelihood NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 89 31 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 89 32 this this DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 89 33 seems seem VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 89 34 very very RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 89 35 low low JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 89 36 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 90 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 90 2 seems seem VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 90 3 much much RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 90 4 more more RBR cord-289722-cc05jqb6 90 5 likely likely JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 90 6 that that IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 90 7 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 90 8 result result NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 90 9 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 90 10 this this DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 90 11 semi semi JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 90 12 - - JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 90 13 lockdown lockdown JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 90 14 looks look VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 90 15 more more RBR cord-289722-cc05jqb6 90 16 like like IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 90 17 Figure Figure NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 90 18 6 6 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 90 19 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 90 20 with with IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 90 21 4.5 4.5 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 90 22 months month NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 90 23 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 90 24 doing do VBG cord-289722-cc05jqb6 90 25 this this DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 90 26 semi semi JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 90 27 - - JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 90 28 lockdown lockdown NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 90 29 and and CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 90 30 with with IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 90 31 approximately approximately RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 90 32 80 80 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 90 33 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 90 34 000 000 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 90 35 dead dead JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 90 36 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 91 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 91 2 can can MD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 91 3 also also RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 91 4 see see VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 91 5 what what WP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 91 6 happens happen VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 91 7 if if IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 91 8 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 91 9 lockdown lockdown NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 91 10 is be VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 91 11 even even RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 91 12 more more RBR cord-289722-cc05jqb6 91 13 relaxed relaxed JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 91 14 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 91 15 with with IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 91 16 people people NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 91 17 going go VBG cord-289722-cc05jqb6 91 18 out out RP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 91 19 at at IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 91 20 times time NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 91 21 that that WDT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 91 22 are be VBP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 91 23 n't not RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 91 24 completely completely RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 91 25 necessary necessary JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 91 26 because because IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 91 27 people people NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 91 28 start start VBP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 91 29 to to TO cord-289722-cc05jqb6 91 30 grow grow VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 91 31 bored bored JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 91 32 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 92 1 If if IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 92 2 people people NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 92 3 do do VBP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 92 4 start start VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 92 5 to to TO cord-289722-cc05jqb6 92 6 take take VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 92 7 this this DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 92 8 lockdown lockdown NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 92 9 less less RBR cord-289722-cc05jqb6 92 10 seriously seriously RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 93 1 -especially -especially . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 94 1 young young JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 94 2 people people NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 94 3 who who WP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 94 4 believe believe VBP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 94 5 that that IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 94 6 they -PRON- PRP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 94 7 will will MD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 94 8 not not RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 94 9 get get VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 94 10 gravely gravely RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 94 11 ill ill JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 94 12 due due IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 94 13 to to IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 94 14 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 94 15 youth youth NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 94 16 -it -it : cord-289722-cc05jqb6 94 17 might may MD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 94 18 result result VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 94 19 in in IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 94 20 things thing NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 94 21 looking look VBG cord-289722-cc05jqb6 94 22 more more RBR cord-289722-cc05jqb6 94 23 like like IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 94 24 Figure Figure NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 94 25 7 7 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 94 26 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 94 27 with with IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 94 28 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 94 29 ' ' `` cord-289722-cc05jqb6 94 30 lockdown lockdown NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 94 31 ' ' '' cord-289722-cc05jqb6 94 32 taking take VBG cord-289722-cc05jqb6 94 33 over over RP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 94 34 6 6 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 94 35 + + CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 94 36 months month NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 94 37 and and CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 94 38 resulting result VBG cord-289722-cc05jqb6 94 39 in in IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 94 40 more more JJR cord-289722-cc05jqb6 94 41 than than IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 94 42 300 300 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 94 43 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 94 44 000 000 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 94 45 fatalities fatality NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 94 46 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 95 1 This this DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 95 2 reflects reflect VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 95 3 just just RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 95 4 how how WRB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 95 5 important important JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 95 6 it -PRON- PRP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 95 7 is be VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 95 8 to to TO cord-289722-cc05jqb6 95 9 stay stay VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 95 10 at at IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 95 11 home home NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 95 12 ; ; : cord-289722-cc05jqb6 95 13 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 95 14 more more RBR cord-289722-cc05jqb6 95 15 relaxed relaxed JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 95 16 we -PRON- PRP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 95 17 become become VBP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 95 18 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 95 19 longer long JJR cord-289722-cc05jqb6 96 1 this this DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 96 2 is be VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 96 3 going go VBG cord-289722-cc05jqb6 96 4 to to TO cord-289722-cc05jqb6 96 5 take take VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 96 6 with with RP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 96 7 more more JJR cord-289722-cc05jqb6 96 8 deaths death NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 96 9 occurring occur VBG cord-289722-cc05jqb6 96 10 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 96 11 which which WDT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 96 12 is be VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 96 13 what what WP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 96 14 no no DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 96 15 one one NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 96 16 wants want VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 96 17 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 97 1 To to TO cord-289722-cc05jqb6 97 2 conclude conclude VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 97 3 on on IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 97 4 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 97 5 simulations simulation NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 97 6 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 97 7 we -PRON- PRP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 97 8 can can MD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 97 9 see see VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 97 10 that that IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 97 11 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 97 12 less less RBR cord-289722-cc05jqb6 97 13 seriously seriously RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 97 14 lockdown lockdown NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 97 15 is be VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 97 16 taken take VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 97 17 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 97 18 or or CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 97 19 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 97 20 less less RBR cord-289722-cc05jqb6 97 21 strict strict JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 97 22 we -PRON- PRP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 97 23 are be VBP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 97 24 about about IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 97 25 this this DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 97 26 lockdown lockdown NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 97 27 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 97 28 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 97 29 longer long RBR cord-289722-cc05jqb6 97 30 this this DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 97 31 will will MD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 97 32 take take VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 97 33 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 98 1 If if IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 98 2 this this DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 98 3 lockdown lockdown NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 98 4 is be VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 98 5 n't not RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 98 6 done do VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 98 7 to to IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 98 8 a a DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 98 9 high high JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 98 10 enough enough JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 98 11 standard standard NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 98 12 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 98 13 it -PRON- PRP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 98 14 is be VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 98 15 evident evident JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 98 16 that that IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 98 17 this this DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 98 18 will will MD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 98 19 take take VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 98 20 much much RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 98 21 longer long RBR cord-289722-cc05jqb6 98 22 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 98 23 with with IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 98 24 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 98 25 results result NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 98 26 not not RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 98 27 looking look VBG cord-289722-cc05jqb6 98 28 too too RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 98 29 different different JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 98 30 to to IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 98 31 8 8 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 98 32 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 99 1 CC CC NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 99 2 - - : cord-289722-cc05jqb6 99 3 BY by IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 99 4 4.0 4.0 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 99 5 International international JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 99 6 license license NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 100 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 100 2 is be VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 100 3 made make VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 100 4 available available JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 100 5 under under IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 100 6 a a DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 101 1 is be VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 101 2 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 101 3 author author NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 101 4 / / SYM cord-289722-cc05jqb6 101 5 funder funder NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 101 6 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 101 7 who who WP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 101 8 has have VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 101 9 granted grant VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 101 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 101 11 a a DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 101 12 license license NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 101 13 to to TO cord-289722-cc05jqb6 101 14 display display VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 101 15 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 101 16 preprint preprint NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 101 17 in in IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 101 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 101 19 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 102 1 The the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 102 2 copyright copyright NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 102 3 holder holder NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 102 4 for for IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 102 5 this this DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 102 6 preprint preprint NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 102 7 this this DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 102 8 version version NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 102 9 posted post VBD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 102 10 March March NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 102 11 30 30 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 102 12 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 102 13 2020 2020 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 102 14 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 102 15 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 103 1 that that DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 103 2 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 103 3 taking take VBG cord-289722-cc05jqb6 103 4 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 103 5 herd herd NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 103 6 immunity immunity NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 103 7 approach approach NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 103 8 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 104 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 104 2 have have VBP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 104 3 made make VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 104 4 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 104 5 code code NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 104 6 available available JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 104 7 to to IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 104 8 everyone everyone NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 104 9 to to TO cord-289722-cc05jqb6 104 10 use use VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 104 11 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 105 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 105 2 encourage encourage VBP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 105 3 people people NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 105 4 to to TO cord-289722-cc05jqb6 105 5 use use VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 105 6 it -PRON- PRP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 105 7 and and CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 105 8 to to TO cord-289722-cc05jqb6 105 9 look look VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 105 10 at at IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 105 11 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 105 12 consequence consequence NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 105 13 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 105 14 different different JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 105 15 national national JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 105 16 or or CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 105 17 international international JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 105 18 actions action NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 105 19 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 106 1 If if IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 106 2 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 106 3 for for IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 106 4 example example NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 106 5 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 106 6 one one PRP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 106 7 would would MD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 106 8 like like VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 106 9 to to TO cord-289722-cc05jqb6 106 10 test test VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 106 11 and and CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 106 12 see see VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 106 13 what what WP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 106 14 would would MD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 106 15 happen happen VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 106 16 if if IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 106 17 people people NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 106 18 start start VBP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 106 19 to to TO cord-289722-cc05jqb6 106 20 relax relax VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 106 21 after after IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 106 22 one one CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 106 23 month month NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 106 24 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 106 25 strict strict JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 106 26 lockdown lockdown NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 106 27 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 106 28 this this DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 106 29 can can MD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 106 30 simply simply RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 106 31 be be VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 106 32 done do VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 106 33 by by IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 106 34 increase increase NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 106 35 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 106 36 R r NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 106 37 0 0 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 106 38 number number NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 106 39 at at IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 106 40 that that DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 106 41 point point NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 106 42 and and CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 106 43 evaluate evaluate VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 106 44 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 106 45 results result NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 106 46 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 107 1 This this DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 107 2 is be VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 107 3 one one CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 107 4 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 107 5 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 107 6 advantages advantage NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 107 7 from from IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 107 8 using use VBG cord-289722-cc05jqb6 107 9 a a DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 107 10 simply simply RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 107 11 stochastic stochastic JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 107 12 simulation simulation NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 107 13 approach approach NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 107 14 as as IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 107 15 presented present VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 107 16 herein herein RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 107 17 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 107 18 as as IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 107 19 opposed oppose VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 107 20 to to IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 107 21 more more JJR cord-289722-cc05jqb6 107 22 classical classical JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 107 23 approaches approach NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 107 24 in in IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 107 25 epidemiological epidemiological JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 107 26 modelling modelling NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 107 27 based base VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 107 28 on on IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 107 29 differential differential JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 107 30 equations equation NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 107 31 [ [ -LRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 107 32 16 16 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 107 33 ] ] -RRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 107 34 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 108 1 Finally finally RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 108 2 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 108 3 one one CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 108 4 caveat caveat NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 108 5 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 109 1 This this DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 109 2 is be VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 109 3 just just RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 109 4 a a DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 109 5 model model NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 109 6 ( ( -LRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 109 7 and and CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 109 8 all all DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 109 9 models model NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 109 10 are be VBP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 109 11 wrong wrong JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 109 12 [ [ -LRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 109 13 17 17 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 109 14 ] ] -RRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 109 15 ) ) -RRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 110 1 -further -further JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 110 2 validation validation NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 110 3 and and CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 110 4 stress stress NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 110 5 testing testing NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 110 6 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 110 7 including include VBG cord-289722-cc05jqb6 110 8 sensitivity sensitivity NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 110 9 analysis analysis NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 110 10 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 110 11 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 110 12 results result NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 110 13 to to IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 110 14 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 110 15 choice choice NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 110 16 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 110 17 parameters parameter NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 110 18 should should MD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 110 19 be be VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 110 20 done do VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 110 21 to to TO cord-289722-cc05jqb6 110 22 understand understand VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 110 23 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 110 24 limitations limitation NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 110 25 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 110 26 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 110 27 model model NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 110 28 predictions prediction NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 110 29 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 110 30 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 111 1 CC CC NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 111 2 - - : cord-289722-cc05jqb6 111 3 BY by IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 111 4 4.0 4.0 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 111 5 International international JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 111 6 license license NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 112 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 112 2 is be VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 112 3 made make VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 112 4 available available JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 112 5 under under IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 112 6 a a DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 113 1 is be VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 113 2 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 113 3 author author NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 113 4 / / SYM cord-289722-cc05jqb6 113 5 funder funder NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 113 6 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 113 7 who who WP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 113 8 has have VBZ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 113 9 granted grant VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 113 10 medRxiv medRxiv NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 113 11 a a DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 113 12 license license NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 113 13 to to TO cord-289722-cc05jqb6 113 14 display display VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 113 15 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 113 16 preprint preprint NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 113 17 in in IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 113 18 perpetuity perpetuity NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 113 19 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 114 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 114 2 which which WDT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 114 3 was be VBD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 114 4 not not RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 114 5 certified certify VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 114 6 by by IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 114 7 peer peer NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 114 8 review review NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 114 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 115 1 The the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 115 2 copyright copyright NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 115 3 holder holder NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 115 4 for for IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 115 5 this this DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 115 6 preprint preprint NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 115 7 this this DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 115 8 version version NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 115 9 posted post VBD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 115 10 March March NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 115 11 30 30 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 115 12 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 115 13 2020 2020 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 115 14 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 115 15 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 116 1 Incubation Incubation NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 116 2 Period Period NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 116 3 and and CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 116 4 Other other JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 116 5 Epidemiological epidemiological JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 116 6 Characteristics characteristic NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 116 7 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 116 8 2019 2019 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 116 9 Novel Novel NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 116 10 Coronavirus Coronavirus NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 116 11 Infections Infections NNPS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 116 12 with with IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 116 13 Right Right NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 116 14 Truncation truncation NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 116 15 : : : cord-289722-cc05jqb6 116 16 A a DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 116 17 Statistical Statistical NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 116 18 Analysis Analysis NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 116 19 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 116 20 Publicly publicly RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 116 21 Available Available NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 116 22 Case Case NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 116 23 Data Data NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 116 24 Unique Unique NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 116 25 epidemiological epidemiological JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 116 26 and and CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 116 27 clinical clinical JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 116 28 features feature NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 116 29 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 116 30 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 116 31 emerging emerge VBG cord-289722-cc05jqb6 116 32 2019 2019 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 116 33 novel novel JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 116 34 coronavirus coronavirus NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 116 35 pneumonia pneumonia NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 116 36 ( ( -LRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 116 37 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 116 38 ) ) -RRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 116 39 implicate implicate VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 116 40 special special JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 116 41 control control NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 116 42 measures measure NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 116 43 The the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 116 44 Incubation Incubation NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 116 45 Period Period NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 116 46 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 116 47 Coronavirus Coronavirus NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 116 48 Disease Disease NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 116 49 2019 2019 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 116 50 ( ( -LRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 116 51 COVID-19 covid-19 VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 116 52 ) ) -RRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 116 53 From from IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 116 54 Publicly publicly RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 116 55 Reported report VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 116 56 Confirmed confirm VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 116 57 Cases case NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 116 58 : : : cord-289722-cc05jqb6 117 1 Estimation Estimation NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 117 2 and and CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 117 3 Application Application NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 117 4 Clinical clinical JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 117 5 features feature NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 117 6 and and CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 117 7 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 117 8 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 117 9 viral viral JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 117 10 load load NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 117 11 in in IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 117 12 imported import VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 117 13 and and CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 117 14 non non JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 117 15 - - JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 117 16 imported import VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 117 17 patients patient NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 117 18 with with IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 117 19 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 117 20 A a DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 117 21 Review Review NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 117 22 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 117 23 Coronavirus Coronavirus NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 117 24 Disease-2019 Disease-2019 NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 117 25 ( ( -LRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 117 26 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 117 27 ) ) -RRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 117 28 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 118 1 Indian indian JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 118 2 journal journal NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 118 3 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 118 4 pediatrics pediatrics NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 118 5 novel novel NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 118 6 coronavirus coronavirus NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 118 7 patients patient NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 118 8 ' ' POS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 118 9 clinical clinical JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 118 10 characteristics characteristic NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 118 11 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 118 12 discharge discharge NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 118 13 rate rate NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 118 14 and and CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 118 15 fatality fatality NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 118 16 rate rate NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 118 17 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 118 18 meta meta NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 118 19 - - HYPH cord-289722-cc05jqb6 118 20 analysis analysis NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 118 21 Hiromitsu Hiromitsu NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 118 22 Kataoka Kataoka NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 118 23 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 118 24 Tauseef Tauseef NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 118 25 Ahmad Ahmad NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 118 26 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 118 27 Ranjit Ranjit NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 118 28 Sah Sah NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 118 29 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 118 30 and and CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 118 31 Latin Latin NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 118 32 American American NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 118 33 Network Network NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 118 34 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 118 35 Coronavirus Coronavirus NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 118 36 Disease Disease NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 118 37 2019-COVID-19 2019-COVID-19 NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 119 1 Research research NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 119 2 LANCOVID-19 LANCOVID-19 NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 119 3 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 120 1 Clinical clinical JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 120 2 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 120 3 laboratory laboratory NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 120 4 and and CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 120 5 imaging imaging NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 120 6 features feature NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 120 7 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 120 8 COVID-19 covid-19 NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 120 9 : : : cord-289722-cc05jqb6 120 10 A a DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 120 11 systematic systematic JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 120 12 review review NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 120 13 and and CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 120 14 meta meta NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 120 15 - - HYPH cord-289722-cc05jqb6 120 16 analysis analysis NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 121 1 Preliminary preliminary JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 121 2 estimation estimation NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 121 3 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 121 4 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 121 5 basic basic JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 121 6 reproduction reproduction NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 121 7 number number NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 121 8 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 121 9 novel novel JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 121 10 coronavirus coronavirus NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 121 11 ( ( -LRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 121 12 2019-nCoV 2019-ncov CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 121 13 ) ) -RRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 121 14 in in IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 121 15 China China NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 121 16 , , , cord-289722-cc05jqb6 121 17 from from IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 121 18 2019 2019 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 121 19 to to IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 121 20 2020 2020 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 121 21 : : : cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 1 A a DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 2 data data NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 3 - - HYPH cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 4 driven drive VBN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 5 analysis analysis NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 6 in in IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 7 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 8 early early JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 9 phase phase NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 10 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 11 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 12 outbreak outbreak NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 13 Estimating estimate VBG cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 14 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 15 asymptomatic asymptomatic JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 16 proportion proportion NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 17 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 18 coronavirus coronavirus NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 19 disease disease NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 20 2019 2019 CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 21 ( ( -LRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 22 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 23 ) ) -RRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 24 cases case NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 25 on on IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 26 board board NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 27 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 28 Diamond Diamond NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 29 Princess Princess NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 30 cruise cruise NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 31 ship ship NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 32 Estimation estimation NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 33 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 34 the the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 35 asymptomatic asymptomatic JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 36 ratio ratio NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 37 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 38 novel novel JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 39 coronavirus coronavirus NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 40 infections infection NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 41 ( ( -LRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 42 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 43 ) ) -RRB- cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 44 Covid-19 Covid-19 NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 45 : : : cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 46 identifying identify VBG cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 47 and and CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 48 isolating isolate VBG cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 49 asymptomatic asymptomatic JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 50 people people NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 51 helped help VBD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 52 eliminate eliminate VB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 53 virus virus NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 54 in in IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 55 Italian italian JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 56 village village NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 57 Breadth Breadth NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 58 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 59 concomitant concomitant JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 60 immune immune JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 61 responses response NNS cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 62 prior prior RB cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 63 to to IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 64 patient patient JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 65 recovery recovery NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 66 : : : cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 67 a a DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 68 case case NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 69 report report NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 70 of of IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 71 non non JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 72 - - JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 73 severe severe JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 74 COVID-19 COVID-19 NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 75 R r NN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 76 : : : cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 77 A a DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 78 Language Language NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 79 and and CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 80 Environment Environment NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 81 for for IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 82 Statistical Statistical NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 83 Computing Computing NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 122 84 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 123 1 R R NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 123 2 Foundation Foundation NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 123 3 for for IN cord-289722-cc05jqb6 123 4 Statistical Statistical NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 123 5 Computing Computing NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 124 1 The the DT cord-289722-cc05jqb6 124 2 Definitive Definitive NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 124 3 Guide Guide NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 124 4 . . . cord-289722-cc05jqb6 125 1 Chapman Chapman NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 125 2 and and CC cord-289722-cc05jqb6 125 3 Hall Hall NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 125 4 / / SYM cord-289722-cc05jqb6 125 5 CRC CRC NNP cord-289722-cc05jqb6 125 6 Three three CD cord-289722-cc05jqb6 125 7 basic basic JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 125 8 epidemiological epidemiological JJ cord-289722-cc05jqb6 125 9 models model NNS