# pos

id: cord-033356-ppn71yd0
pos: NNP
token:
  https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccines/astrazeneca-agrees-to-supplyeurope-with-400-million-doses-of-covid-19-vaccine-idUSKBN23K0HW

lemma:
  https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccines/astrazeneca-agrees-to-supplyeurope-with-400-million-doses-of-covid-19-vaccine-idUSKBN23K0HW


id: cord-021492-z2bjkl9g
pos: NNP
token:
  http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/family-stones-pakistani-woman-death-honor-killing-outsidecourt-n115336

lemma:
  http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/family-stones-pakistani-woman-death-honor-killing-outsidecourt-n115336


id: cord-021492-z2bjkl9g
pos: ADD
token:
  http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/qatar-launches-campaign-for-modest-dresscode-for-tourists-9438452.html

lemma:
  http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/qatar-launches-campaign-for-modest-dresscode-for-tourists-9438452.html


id: cord-254234-8w1z3un6
pos: NNP
token:
  Education_The_Experience_in_Hand_Surgery_March_2015_P132-147.pdf?1430738271=&response-content-disposition=inline%3B+filename%3DOpen_online_surgical_education_The_exper.pdf&Expires=

lemma:
  Education_The_Experience_in_Hand_Surgery_March_2015_P132-147.pdf?1430738271=&response-content-disposition=inline%3B+filename%3DOpen_online_surgical_education_The_exper.pdf&Expires=


id: cord-254234-8w1z3un6
pos: NNP
token:
  klRX2ywfBf0lF4IagONAT2aR3ZEdMiB~{}6cKpDYJFLjRkDW3hgzWxKl61k11ffSd4-sx5xmzz7PYWixuruCq3GU5pc6G3WLge5iz5suaboEAQkTM3FttumrHmQnYwcDjcsl1GsqqfR-7EeWLybLwsklJ~{}PMhaouTA1erc84ulrqXCPVcjEXAJ5BFp0QZtCi5JjyHyK9dwsNF9DwGKTT3IJvXIVdcng

lemma:
  klRX2ywfBf0lF4IagONAT2aR3ZEdMiB~{}6cKpDYJFLjRkDW3hgzWxKl61k11ffSd4-sx5xmzz7PYWixuruCq3GU5pc6G3WLge5iz5suaboEAQkTM3FttumrHmQnYwcDjcsl1GsqqfR-7EeWLybLwsklJ~{}PMhaouTA1erc84ulrqXCPVcjEXAJ5BFp0QZtCi5JjyHyK9dwsNF9DwGKTT3IJvXIVdcng


id: cord-293599-ng002ydl
pos: NNP
token:
  https://www.ine.pt/xportal/xmain?xpid=INE&xpgid=ine_publicacoes&PUBLICACOEStipo=ea&PUBLICACOEScoleccao=107664

lemma:
  https://www.ine.pt/xportal/xmain?xpid=INE&xpgid=ine_publicacoes&PUBLICACOEStipo=ea&PUBLICACOEScoleccao=107664


id: cord-339387-s2mydwff
pos: NNP
token:
  https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-casesworldwide

lemma:
  https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-casesworldwide


id: cord-303165-ikepr2p2
pos: UH
token:
  https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attach-ment_data/file/127106/121109-NHS-Outcomes-Framework-2013-14.pdf

lemma:
  https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attach-ment_data/file/127106/121109-nhs-outcomes-framework-2013-14.pdf


id: cord-317583-jhulvfev
pos: NNP
token:
  https://www.information.dk/udland/2019/12/new-data-reveals-serious-problems-with-the-eus-officialpublic-opinion-polls

lemma:
  https://www.information.dk/udland/2019/12/new-data-reveals-serious-problems-with-the-eus-officialpublic-opinion-polls


# ent

id: cord-017615-zjr6csla
type: LAW
entity:
  the International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture International Seed Treaty


id: cord-016508-39glgeft
type: ORG
entity:
  the Bill Melinda Gates Foundation Gavi Alliance UNICEF US National Institute of Allergies and Infectious Diseases NIAID


id: cord-017554-yvx1gyp9
type: LAW
entity:
  the International Covenant on Social Economic and Cultural Rights the Convention on the Rights of the Child the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination Against Women the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination and the Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities These


id: cord-017554-yvx1gyp9
type: ORG
entity:
  Inter Governmental Asia Pacific Consultations on Refugees Displaced Persons And Migrants APC Environmental


id: cord-021937-p9vqpazu
type: EVENT
entity:
  the International Conference on Harmonization of Technical Requirements for Registration of Pharmaceuticals for Human Use


id: cord-021937-p9vqpazu
type: ORG
entity:
  World Health Organization Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division Vaccine Preventable Diseases Surveillance Program


id: cord-032256-7yrh16ab
type: EVENT
entity:
  Fight COVID 19 IMF Blog Business in Times of Crisis Adaptive Targeted Infectious Disease Testing Evidence Mounts


id: cord-033356-ppn71yd0
type: LAW
entity:
  the Marrakesh Treaty to Facilitate Access to Published Works for Persons Who Are Blind Visually Impaired


id: cord-033356-ppn71yd0
type: ORG
entity:
  Kevin Outterson Patent Buy Outs for Global Disease Innovations for Low and Middle Income Countries Article 31


id: cord-254874-ug0ler5e
type: ORG
entity:
  the American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Critical Care Medicine and Intensive Care Medicine


id: cord-017731-xzfo5jjq
type: GGP
entity:
  Clostridium botulinum mainly type E Tavakoli and Imani Fooladi 2011 The processing is insufficient to kill the


id: cord-254620-xcblqg4z
type: ORG
entity:
  Veerle Mertens Belgian Superior Health Council Canada National Advisory Committee on Immunization NACI Togo Groupe


id: cord-254620-xcblqg4z
type: ORG
entity:
  National Conference of State Legislators States With Religious and Philosophical Exemptions From School Immunization Requirements Immunization


id: cord-023853-y5g4ceq9
type: ORG
entity:
  World Health Organization WHO 2007b WHO Report on GAVI Progress World Health Organization WHO 2007c Immunization


id: cord-258885-ev2pvr3s
type: WORK_OF_ART
entity:
  The Evaluation of the Final Impact of Wuhan COVID 19 on Trade Tourism Transport and Electricity Consumption of China


id: cord-021492-z2bjkl9g
type: ORG
entity:
  United Nations Resources for Speakers on Global Issues Violence Against Women and Girls Ending Violence Against Women and Girls


id: cord-260826-1n96pz86
type: ORG
entity:
  the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention Case Fatality Rate and Characteristics of Patients Dying in Relation to


id: cord-032269-zhk5fyfc
type: EVENT
entity:
  the Fintech Revolution Tax Me but Spend Wisely Sources of Public Finance and Government Accountability Informal Labour


id: cord-032269-zhk5fyfc
type: ORG
entity:
  the Dynamics of Participation in Community Associations Universal Basic Incomes versus Targeted Transfers Anti Poverty Programmes in Developing Countries Are Small Firms


id: cord-035137-uxtaw02u
type: ORG
entity:
  World Bank Policies Impact Health in Developing Countries International Financial Institutions and Human Rights Implications for Public Health Argentina


id: cord-272998-jx4xpbjl
type: WORK_OF_ART
entity:
  The Effect of Population Health on Foreign Direct Investment Inflows to Low and Middle Income Countries


id: cord-272998-jx4xpbjl
type: ORG
entity:
  FDI Policies for Development National and International Perspectives Global Investment Prospects Assessment GIPA Research


id: cord-265292-yyh1kikb
type: ORG
entity:
  Emerging Infectious Diseases Veterinary Record Euro Surveillance European Communicable Disease Bulletin


id: cord-268822-o86zpu92
type: ORG
entity:
  World Health Organization 2020 Duty to Plan Health Care Crisis Standards of Care and Novel Coronavirus SARS CoV


id: cord-284201-2ofqm7a0
type: WORK_OF_ART
entity:
  The Global Burden of Disease A Comprehensive Assessment of Mortality and Disability from Disease Injuries and Risk Factors


id: cord-284201-2ofqm7a0
type: LOC
entity:
  the Eastern Mediterranean Region Health and Human Security Center for Population and Development Studies


id: cord-274548-yeucn13x
type: DISEASE
entity:
  diabetes of the total health expenditure 38 The variables listed above were classified as follows percentage of


id: cord-290930-438td98a
type: ORG
entity:
  Health Research for Development Health Research Essential Link to Equity in Development Global Forum for Health Research Monitoring Financial Flows for Health Research Geneva Global Forum for Health Research Economics


id: cord-263261-xhem8l39
type: DNA
entity:
  MMR measles mumps rubella 2 doses Hib Hemophilus influenza b rotavirus pneumococcal pneumonia and HPV Human papillomavirus vaccines


id: cord-263261-xhem8l39
type: ORG
entity:
  Accountable Care Organizations ACO Patient Centered Medical Home PCMH and Population Health Management System PHMS


id: cord-263261-xhem8l39
type: ORG
entity:
  Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development OECD Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development OECD Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development OECD


id: cord-254234-8w1z3un6
type: PERCENT
entity:
  6cKpDYJFLjRkDW3hgzWxKl61k11ffSd4 sx5xmzz7PYWixuruCq3GU5pc6G3WLge5iz5suaboEAQkTM3FttumrHmQnYwcDjcsl1GsqqfR


id: cord-254234-8w1z3un6
type: EVENT
entity:
  the Gulf Cooperation Council GCC Economies GCC Network for Drylands Research and Development NDRD Developments in Soil Classification Land Use Planning and Policy Implications


id: cord-311694-2b2swi0l
type: DNA
entity:
  Ecological Footprint Index 13 Transport Network Density 14 15 52 and Net Migration Rate 16 53 54 Various studies suggest using Human Development Index HDI


id: cord-311694-2b2swi0l
type: GGP
entity:
  i e Level 1 9 9 Level 2 0 Level 3 14 5 Level 4 12 8 and Level 5 the highest level of risk exposure 62 8 We then loaded all the data in a quantitative format onto IBM SPSS V26 software package through which we carried out all our statistical analysis As a next step to answer research question 1 RQ1


id: cord-311694-2b2swi0l
type: PRODUCT
entity:
  Night Time Light Data A Good Proxy Measure for Economic Activity Global Footprint Network Protecting Public Health and


id: cord-312197-d5d8amk7
type: DISEASE
entity:
  Treponema pallidum rubella virus herpes simplex virus cytomegalovirus toxoplasmosis Clostridium tetani HIV hepatitis B


id: cord-275071-2uiaruhg
type: PROTEIN
entity:
  conte ntass ets edc2b 33f85 ad415 d8e79 09002 253ed 84 2020 04 09 E2 80 94pre limin ar stati stik over doda inkl eng


id: cord-325034-oefmb10g
type: ORG
entity:
  Oxford COVID 19 Government Response Tracker World Bank World Development Indicators United Nations Statistics Division


id: cord-316050-mqrx003q
type: ORG
entity:
  Sidney Institute for Economics Peace Institute for Economics Peace Lisboa Instituto Nacional de Estatística Retrieved


id: cord-313384-v4g6dq6p
type: ORG
entity:
  Desirability Optimization Models to Create the Global Healthcare Competitiveness Index date 2020 06 24


id: cord-339387-s2mydwff
type: LAW
entity:
  the CARICOM Summit on Chronic Non Communicable Diseases United Nations General Assembly SIDS Accelerated Modalities of Action SAMOA Pathway Resolution


id: cord-327865-xxov2x33
type: ORG
entity:
  The United Nations World Water Development Report United Nations Development Programme Human Development Report 2006 Beyond Scarcity Power Poverty


id: cord-327865-xxov2x33
type: LAW
entity:
  Guidelines of the Safe Use of Wastewater and Excreta in Agriculture and Aquaculture Guidelines For Drinking Water Quality Recommendations Guidelines for the Safe Use of Wastewater Global Water Supply and Sanitation Assessment Report Joint Monitoring Programme for Water Supply and Sanitation


id: cord-298052-mbg6e2j1
type: WORK_OF_ART
entity:
  The Spread of Infectious Diseases A Methodological Approach Applied to Evaluation and Emergency Control Strategies in Cattle Relationship of


id: cord-301479-dc1oyftd
type: ORG
entity:
  the Detection and Identification of Infectious Diseases Project DIID Foresight Project Office of Science and Innovation Potential


id: cord-301479-dc1oyftd
type: ORG
entity:
  United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction UN ISDR Living with Risk


id: cord-322838-s82tyeis
type: WORK_OF_ART
entity:
  Clinical Course and Outcomes of Patients with Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Infection a Preliminary Report of the First 28 Patients from the Korean Cohort Study on COVID 19 Cigarette Smoking


id: cord-322838-s82tyeis
type: ORG
entity:
  Mexico Pan American Health Organization Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública Covid 19 Testing Hospital Admission


id: cord-321194-xi4zy5ow
type: CELL_LINE
entity:
  China Displayed Sign Banning Black People Trump Signs Historic 2 Trillion Stimulus After Congress Passes


id: cord-321194-xi4zy5ow
type: DNA
entity:
  Curb Coronavirus EBRD Unveils V1 Billion Emergency Coronavirus Financing Package Inquiry After 668 of French Aircraft Carrier s Crew Catch Coronavirus Coronavirus Nuggets Report Member of Organization Tested Positive


id: cord-321194-xi4zy5ow
type: ORG
entity:
  Tackle Coronavirus Outbreak Commission Publishes Guidance on Export Requirements for Personal Protective Equipment


id: cord-321194-xi4zy5ow
type: WORK_OF_ART
entity:
  Prisoners to Curb Coronavirus EBRD Unveils V1 Billion Emergency Coronavirus Financing Package Inquiry


id: cord-319844-94587n2h
type: PROTEIN
entity:
  N 11 countries stand to benefit if they apply this approach to the consumption of the renewables and green the financial sector This will bring more than double the economic growth for the economies


id: cord-319844-94587n2h
type: PROTEIN
entity:
  N 11 countries Bangladesh Egypt Indonesia Iran Mexico Nigeria Pakistan the Philippines Turkey South Korea


id: cord-338143-2v4lrlcl
type: ORG
entity:
  Control United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Dynamics United Nations Statistics Division Population


id: cord-331601-3w4c40qr
type: CELL_LINE
entity:
  Cameroon Humanitarian Response Plan COVID 19 Equatorial Guinea Accuses WHO Official of Falsifying Covid 19 Data Acknowledgments I


id: cord-331601-3w4c40qr
type: ORG
entity:
  Ministry of Public Health Health Analytical Profile Cameroon Ministry of Public Health Ministry of Public Health Health Sector


id: cord-331601-3w4c40qr
type: ORG
entity:
  Cameroon Ministry of Public Health Cameroon Health Workforce Census Cameroon Economic Update Towards Greater Equity Healthcare Financing


id: cord-331601-3w4c40qr
type: ORG
entity:
  Rural Cameroon Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation Financing Global Health Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation


id: cord-339360-vm4yy47i
type: ORG
entity:
  Pattern Sequence Similarity with Application to Electricity Demand Decision System Integrating Preferences to Support


id: cord-355726-44x0idzn
type: ORG
entity:
  Health Action International Asia Pacific HAIAP People Health Movement PHM Third World Network TWN International Network for Rational Use of Drugs INRUD


# url

id: cord-033356-ppn71yd0
domain: www.reuters.com
url:
  http://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccines/astrazeneca-agrees-to-supplyeurope-with-400-million-doses-of-covid-19-vaccine-idUSKBN23K0HW


id: cord-293599-ng002ydl
domain: www.ine.pt
url:
  http://www.ine.pt/xportal/xmain?xpid=INE&xpgid=ine_publicacoes&PUBLICACOEStipo=ea&PUBLICACOEScoleccao=107664


id: cord-303165-ikepr2p2
domain: www.gov.uk
url:
  http://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attach-ment_data/file/127106/121109-NHS-Outcomes-Framework-2013-14.pdf


id: cord-339387-s2mydwff
domain: www.ecdc.europa.eu
url:
  http://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-casesworldwide


id: cord-317583-jhulvfev
domain: www.information.dk
url:
  http://www.information.dk/udland/2019/12/new-data-reveals-serious-problems-with-the-eus-officialpublic-opinion-polls


# bib

id: cord-000255-73nlxqgk
title: Predictive Power of Air Travel and Socio-Economic Data for Early Pandemic Spread
author: Hosseini, Parviez
date: 2010-09-15
txt: ./txt/cord-000255-73nlxqgk.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-000255-73nlxqgk.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2939898/
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0012763
summary:
  CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We conclude that strategies to prevent pandemic influenza virus emergence and spread in the future should include: 1) enhanced surveillance for strains resulting from reassortment in traded livestock; 2) rapid deployment of control measures in the initial spreading phase to countries where travel data predict the pathogen will reach and to countries where lower healthcare resources will likely cause delays in reporting. Of all the models evaluated, a multivariate model with three predictors, (1) total country-level healthcare spending per capita, (2) estimated passenger volume arriving from Mexico via direct flights (direct flight capacity), and (3) passenger volume from Mexico via indirect, or two-leg, flights (indirect flight capacity), provided the best fit to the data using AIC, as detailed under Methods (Table 1 , DAIC = 0, overall x 2 = 54.33 on 5 degrees of freedom, p-value,0.0001). We validated the model by determining how well a model fit to data up until May 8th predicted reporting dates for fourteen countries where the disease was detected between May 9 th and May 19 th (Supplemental Online Figure S2 ).

abstract:
  BACKGROUND: Controlling the pandemic spread of newly emerging diseases requires rapid, targeted allocation of limited resources among nations. Critical, early control steps would be greatly enhanced if the key risk factors can be identified that accurately predict early disease spread immediately after emergence. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Here, we examine the role of travel, trade, and national healthcare resources in predicting the emergence and initial spread of 2009 A/H1N1 influenza. We find that incorporating national healthcare resource data into our analyses allowed a much greater capacity to predict the international spread of this virus. In countries with lower healthcare resources, the reporting of 2009 A/H1N1 cases was significantly delayed, likely reflecting a lower capacity for testing and reporting, as well as other socio-political issues. We also report substantial international trade in live swine and poultry in the decade preceding the pandemic which may have contributed to the emergence and mixed genotype of this pandemic strain. However, the lack of knowledge of recent evolution of each H1N1 viral gene segment precludes the use of this approach to determine viral origins. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We conclude that strategies to prevent pandemic influenza virus emergence and spread in the future should include: 1) enhanced surveillance for strains resulting from reassortment in traded livestock; 2) rapid deployment of control measures in the initial spreading phase to countries where travel data predict the pathogen will reach and to countries where lower healthcare resources will likely cause delays in reporting. Our results highlight the benefits, for all parties, when higher income countries provide additional healthcare resources for lower income countries, particularly those that have high air traffic volumes. In particular, international authorities should prioritize aid to those poorest countries where both the risk of emerging infectious diseases and air traffic volume is highest. This strategy will result in earlier detection of pathogens and a reduction in the impact of future pandemics.


id: cord-016508-39glgeft
author: Possas, Cristina
date: 2019-06-13
txt: ./txt/cord-016508-39glgeft.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-016508-39glgeft.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7120800/
doi: 10.1007/978-981-13-9431-7_14
summary:
  Innovative preventive vaccines against emerging and neglected infectious diseases, such as Zika, dengue, chikungunya, influenza, and HIV/AIDS, are examined here from bioeconomics and global sustainability perspectives, aiming to integrate public health and biotechnology market approaches. This scenario of increasing global demand for vaccines in the next decade is supported by epidemiological indicators: annual burden of new HPV-related cancers worldwide to the tune of 670,000; rise of Zika into a public health emergency with over 86 countries reporting 230,000 cumulative confirmed cases of infection between 2015 and 2018; very high prevalence of HSV which infects approximately 67% of the world population under 50 years of age; continued prevalence of tuberculosis which infects 10 million and takes 1.5 million lives each year despite the progress made toward eliminating the disease; and rise in HIV infections worldwide over 36.9 million (WHO 2018; Global Industry Analysts 2018).

title:
  Vaccines: Biotechnology Market, Coverage, and Regulatory Challenges for Achieving Sustainable Development Goals

abstract:
  This chapter provides an overview, from bioeconomic and global sustainability perspectives, of the main constraints to the current global vaccine innovation system for achieving Sustainable Development Goals – SDGs. Biotechnology market trends, gaps in vaccine coverage against emerging and neglected diseases, and patent protection and regulation are discussed. A structured long-term “public-return-driven” innovation model to overcome vaccine market failure is proposed.


id: cord-016593-t0dn27bc
title: Food as a New Human and Livelihood Security Challenge
author: Spring, Úrsula Oswald
date: 2009
txt: ./txt/cord-016593-t0dn27bc.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-016593-t0dn27bc.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7120936/
doi: 10.1007/978-3-540-68488-6_33
summary:
  Their understanding of food sovereignty includes: a.) local production and trade of agricultural products with access to land, water, native seeds, credits, technical support and financial facilities for all participants; b.) women are the main food producers worldwide 1) and they are often in charge of transformation and local trade; c.) therefore, access to land, credit and basic production means for women and girls at home and in the community is a guarantee of food security, but it is also able to overcome the violent and unjust patriarchal structures within families, communities, social organizations, countries, and global economic systems; d.) inclusion of the indigenous, women, and peasants in regional and national rural policy and decision-making processes related to agriculture and food sovereignty; e.) the basic right to consume safe, sufficient, and culturally accepted non-toxic food, locally produced, transformed and sold, since food is more than intake of proteins and calories: it is a cultural act of life; f.) the rights of regions and nations to establish compensations and subsidies to get protection from dumping and artificial low prices as a result of subsidies in industrialized countries; g.) the obligation of national and local governments to improve the food disposal of its citizens through stimulus of production and transformation of food, subsidies, and economic programmes to achieve food sovereignty in basic crops; discounts in urban poor regions, able to guarantee the basic food basket; popular kitchens; breakfast in schools, and special food for undernourished babies and pregnant mothers;

abstract:
  As a result of a process of “regressive globalization” (Kaldor/Anheier/Glasius 2003; Oswald 2008b) and of an increasing concentration of wealth in few hands, the economic gap has widened between North and South and within the countries between rich and poor, which has often affected the survival of social groups.


id: cord-017334-u1brl2bi
title: Society, Differentiation and Globalisation
author: Annandale, Ellen
date: 2017-07-21
txt: ./txt/cord-017334-u1brl2bi.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-017334-u1brl2bi.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7121864/
doi: 10.1007/978-3-319-60786-3_2
summary:
  By turn, ''forced migrants'' comprises refuges, defined under the United Nations (UN) Refugee Convention of 1951 as those forced to flee to save their life or preserve their freedom; asylum seekers, or people seeking international protection, awaiting a decision on whether they have refugee status; and internally displaced persons (IDPs) forced to leave their homes to avoid armed conflict, natural or human-made disasters, or violations of human rights, but who have not crossed an international border. Although we need to be wary of overgeneralising, where ''voluntary'' movement is concerned, research points to health selection since migrants often are healthier compared to people in their country of origin, yet it is important to recognise that migration itself can carry risks such as those of transit and adjusting to life in a new country. The health consequences of forced migration are a powerful illustration of the ''social suffering [that] results from what political, economic, and institutional power does to people, and reciprocally, from how these forms of power themselves influence responses to social problems'' (Kleinman et al.

abstract:
  First, theories of globalisation and their implications for the analysis of health issues are discussed. Emphasis is on: (1) globalisation as embodied, something often overlooked by sociologists working outside of the field of health and (2) health vulnerabilities that arise from the heightened mobility and connectivities that characterise globalisation, taking migration and health as an illustration. Second, differentiation is considered by highlighting disparities in health vulnerability and the capacity of social groups to protect their health. This is illustrated by reference to the securitisation of health and the health consequences of violent conflict and the special vulnerabilities of children and of women. Third, the influence of interconnectedness of various national healthcare systems and implications for the delivery of effective healthcare are considered.


id: cord-017554-yvx1gyp9
title: Forced Migration and Refugee Policy
author: Martin, Susan F.
date: 2017-09-15
txt: ./txt/cord-017554-yvx1gyp9.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-017554-yvx1gyp9.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7122144/
doi: 10.1007/978-3-319-67147-5_14
summary:
  Migration resulting from these natural and man-made events may correspond to current international, regional and national frameworks that are designed to protect and assist refugees-that is, persons who flee across an international boundary because of a well-founded fear of persecution-but often, these movements fall outside of the more traditional legal norms and policies. These crises lead to many different forms of displacement, including internal and cross border movements of nationals, evacuation of migrant workers, sea-borne departures that often involve unseaworthy vessels, and trafficking of persons. The State-led Nansen Initiative on cross-border disaster displacement issued an Agenda for Protection that spells out actions that governments can take today to provide humanitarian relief to persons requiring either admission or non-return in these contexts.

abstract:
  This chapter focuses on international, regional and national legal norms, policies, organizational roles and relations and good practices that are applicable to a broad range of humanitarian crises that have migration consequences. These crises and the resulting displacement differ by their causes, intensity, geography, phases and affected populations. The chapter examines movements stemming directly and indirectly from: persecution, armed conflict, extreme natural hazards that cause extensive destruction of lives and infrastructure; slower onset environmental degradation, such as drought and desertification, which undermine livelihoods; manmade environmental disasters, such as nuclear accidents, which destroy habitat and livelihoods; communal violence, civil strife and political instability; and global pandemics that cause high levels of mortality and morbidity. Demographic trends are themselves drivers of displacement in conjunction with other factors. This can play out in two ways—demography as a macro-level factor and demographic composition as a micro-level driver of movement. The chapter compares the paucity of legal, policy and institutional frameworks for addressing crisis-related movements with the more abundant frameworks for addressing the consequences of refugee movements. The chapter discusses the policy implications of the findings, positing that State-led initiatives such as the Nansen and Migrants in Countries in Crisis initiatives are useful mechanisms to fill protection gaps in the absence of political will to adopt and implement more binding legal frameworks. It also argues that, in the context of slow onset climate change, in particular, there is a need for better understanding of how population density, distribution and growth as well as household composition affect vulnerability and resilience to the drivers of displacement.


id: cord-017615-zjr6csla
title: Food Security in an Insecure Future
author: Hillman, John R.
date: 2016-11-25
txt: ./txt/cord-017615-zjr6csla.txt
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mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7122219/
doi: 10.1007/978-3-319-48920-9_12
summary:
  Food security in the Middle East is directly affected by a challenging combination of ongoing destructive conflicts, a global economic downturn, widespread poverty, high population growth, corruption, intolerance, and the potentially damaging consequences of climate change. In a previous article , we considered definitions of food security in the modern era of rising global populations, discussing how food security might be attained in terms of security of water and fossil-fuel-derived energy supplies, climate change, rapid urbanisation, changing dietary trends, and modification of the natural environment leading to depleted natural resources, increasing environmental pollution, and the need to introduce modern technologies. Here, we consider potential adaptations to an insecure global future generally, and to the concerns in the Arab Middle East specifically, in the light of the economic realities of wide disparities in wealth, competition for resources, and widespread poverty in many parts of the globe, coupled to a relatively high population growth, on-going conflicts, attempted cultural genocides, potential conflicts, endemic corruption and nepotism, and epidemics of infectious diseases.

abstract:
  Food security in the Middle East is directly affected by a challenging combination of ongoing destructive conflicts, a global economic downturn, widespread poverty, high population growth, corruption, intolerance, and the potentially damaging consequences of climate change. Many Arab countries demonstrate nearly all the features of those countries classified as poor, less developed, or failing to achieve the eight Millennium Goals. Even the economies of the richer oil-exporting countries in the Region have been seriously damaged by the downturn in oil and gas prices as new sources come on stream elsewhere and demand falls as a result of renewable sources of energy becoming available.


id: cord-017731-xzfo5jjq
title: Foodborne Disease in the Middle East
author: Todd, Ewen C. D.
date: 2016-11-25
txt: ./txt/cord-017731-xzfo5jjq.txt
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extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7122377/
doi: 10.1007/978-3-319-48920-9_17
summary:
  Food safety is a concern worldwide and according to the World Health Organization, developing countries are probably more at risk of foodborne illness because many of these, including those in the Middle East, have limited disease surveillance and prevention and control strategies. Like many other parts of the developing world, foodborne disease surveillance is limited and outbreaks are most often reported through the Press but with insufficient detail to determine the etiological agents and the factors contributing to the outbreaks, leading to speculation to the cause by those interested or responsible for food prevention and control. Thus, the main foodborne disease issues are with homemade, restaurant and street food, where isolated claims of illness are followed up by inspections and possible punitive action by public health agencies responsible for food safety.

abstract:
  Food safety is a concern worldwide and according to the World Health Organization, developing countries are probably more at risk of foodborne illness because many of these, including those in the Middle East, have limited disease surveillance and prevention and control strategies. Specifically, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has the third highest estimated burden of foodborne diseases per population, after the African and South-East Asia regions. However, it is difficult to determine what the burden is since little is published in peer-reviewed journals or government reports for public access. This chapter reviews 16 autonomous nations, namely, Afghanistan, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Palestine, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia (KSA), Syrian Arab Republic (Syria), United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Yemen. Countries range in size from Bahrain with 1.8 million inhabitants to Pakistan with a population of 184 million. Agriculture and local food production is much influenced by water availability for irrigation. Water shortages are most severe in the Gulf countries which rely on aquifers, desalination, and recycled waste water for most of their water supplies. This means that most food is imported which is expensive if not subsidized through petrodollars. This impacts food security which is a particular concern in countries under conflict, particularly, Syria, Yemen and Iraq. Gastrointestinal infections are frequent in this region from Salmonella Typhi and other Salmonella spp., Shigella spp., Campylobacter jejuni and C. coli, rotavirus, hepatitis A virus, parasites, and more rarely from Aeromonas, Yersinia enterocolitica, Brucella spp., and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV). Reports indicate that children are the most susceptible and that many isolates are multidrug resistant. Chemical contamination of water supplies and crops are probably more of a concern than published reports indicate, because of widespread indiscriminate use of fertilizers, antibiotics, and pesticides, coupled with increased industrial pollution affecting the water supplies. Like many other parts of the developing world, foodborne disease surveillance is limited and outbreaks are most often reported through the Press but with insufficient detail to determine the etiological agents and the factors contributing to the outbreaks, leading to speculation to the cause by those interested or responsible for food prevention and control. However, there are some well investigated outbreaks in the region that have those details, and reveal where the shortcomings of both the establishments and the inspection systems have been. Where the causative agents are known, the kinds of pathogens are generally similar to those found in the West, e.g., Salmonella, but many outbreaks seem to have short incubation periods that point to a toxin of some kind of chemical or biological origin, but these are almost never identified. Because of sectarian warfare, residents and refugees have been given food that has made them sick and solders? have been deliberately poisoned. Research has been focused on microbial contamination of locally-sold foodstuffs and manager and employee knowledge of food safety and hygienic conditions in food preparation establishments. An innovative pilot project in Qatar is to use seawater and sunlight for raising crops through the Sahara Forest Project. All countries have some kind of food establishment inspection system, but they tend to be punitive if faults are found in management or employees on the premises rather than being used for their education for improving food safety. Restaurants may be closed down and owners and employees fined for often unspecified infringements. However, some food control agents are moving towards employee training through seminars and courses before problems occur, which is a good disease prevention strategy. Unfortunately, many of the food handlers are from Asian countries with languages other than Arabic and English, which makes effective food safety communication and training difficult. Tourists visiting popular resorts in Turkey and Egypt have suffered from foodborne illnesses, usually of unknown origin but poor hygienic conditions are blamed with law suits following, and the adverse publicity affects the long-term viability of some of these resorts. Food exports, important for local economies, have occasionally been contaminated resulting in recalls and sometimes illnesses and deaths, notably fenugreek seeds from Egypt (E. coli O104:H4), pomegranate arils from Turkey (hepatitis A virus), and tahini from Lebanon (Salmonella). Overall, in recent decades, the Middle East has made strides towards improving food safety for both residents and foreign visitors or ex-pat workers. However, within the countries there are large discrepancies in the extent of effective public health oversight including food safety and food security. Currently, almost all of the countries are involved to a greater or lesser extent in the civil wars in Syria and Yemen, or are affected through political tensions and strife in Egypt, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Palestine, Lebanon and Turkey. In addition, the current overproduction of oil on a world-wide scale has led to a rapid decrease in revenues to most Gulf states. All this points to a severe setback, and an uncertain foreseeable future for improvements in obtaining both sufficient and safe food for residents in this region.


id: cord-021492-z2bjkl9g
title: Planning for known and unknown risks
author: Brossman, Charles
date: 2016-04-15
txt: ./txt/cord-021492-z2bjkl9g.txt
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mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7150012/
doi: 10.1016/b978-0-12-801925-2.00001-1
summary:
  In some countries, lack of planning or resources to support business travelers has the potential to be grounds for claims of negligence in a company''s duty of care responsibilities, and can lead to a criminal offense, such as with the United Kingdom''s (UK) Corporate Manslaughter and Corporate Homicide Act of 2007. The chief operating officer at iJET, John Rose, comments that, "A percentage of calls into our crisis response center are for minor, individual medical issues." However, callers may not always know that the situation is minor until they reach someone for support, which is why having an easy-to-identify, easy-to-access, single contact number or hotline for medical and security support is so important to all companies. All of these considerations provide a strong business case for why employers should have unique and specific programs in place for medical services and evacuations for employees and contractors traveling abroad in addition to their standard domestic health care plans and workers'' compensation plans.

abstract:
  This chapter covers standard definitions of duty of care, example case law where employer duty of care was applicable, a variety of sample risks and concerns that employers and travelers should be aware of, in context with a travel risk management program.


id: cord-021937-p9vqpazu
title: Immunization in the Asia-Pacific Region
author: Tsai, Theodore F.
date: 2017-07-17
txt: ./txt/cord-021937-p9vqpazu.txt
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mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7152242/
doi: 10.1016/b978-0-323-35761-6.00075-4
abstract: nan
summary:
  However, an increasing global integration is taking place, as multinational companies acquire Asian manufacturers (e.g., Sanofi-Aventis, France, acquired Shantha Biotechnics, India); Asian companies acquire or obtain technologies and distribution rights from European countries (e.g., inactivated polio vaccine by Serum Institute of India Ltd. acquiring Bilthoven Biologicals, Netherlands; Astellas, Japan, acquiring recombinant influenza hemagglutinin from Protein Sciences, U.S.; Thai Government Pharmaceutical Organization acquiring chimeric JE vaccine from Sanofi-Pasteur, France; and Biological Evans, India, acquiring JE vaccine from Intercell AG, Austria); and vaccine codevelopment is agreed between entities in developed and Asian countries (e.g., genetically modified, inactivated HIV vaccine codeveloped by Sumagen, Korea, and the University of Western Ontario, Canada; mycobacterial proteinAg85A candidate tuberculosis vaccine codeveloped by Tianjin CanSino Biotechnology, China, and McMaster University, Canada; universal influenza vaccine codeveloped by Xiamen Wantai and Sanofi-Pasteur, France; and novel pneumococcal conjugate vaccine codeveloped by SK Chemicals, Korea and Sanofi-Pasteur, France). The widely used first-generation inactivated suckling mouse brain (SMB)-derived vaccine is being replaced rapidly in economically disadvantaged countries by the Chinese developed and manufactured live attenuated or inactivated vaccine (SA14-14-2 strain) grown in primary baby hamster kidney (PHK) cells and in higher-income countries with Vero cell-derived inactivated vaccines (licensed in the United States, Australia, Canada, and Europe, as well as several Asian countries) or a replicating chimeric yellow fever-JE virus recombinant vaccine (manufactured in Thailand).


id: cord-022176-hprwqi4n
title: Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases
author: Löscher, Thomas
date: 2009-07-28
txt: ./txt/cord-022176-hprwqi4n.txt
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mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7153742/
doi: 10.1007/978-0-387-93835-6_3
summary:
  Since the detection of the etiologic infectious agent and the subsequent development of laboratory diagnostic tests in the 1980s, the number of reported cases of Lyme disease has increased from 0 to 16,000 per year, indicating that it is an "emerging diagnosis." The reported numbers vary depending on the reproduction of the hosting rodents for ticks as well as the contacts between humans and nature (Spach et al. In recent years, norovirus infections are increasingly recognized as the cause of large outbreaks of diarrheal diseases in the general population, school classes, nursing homes, hospitals, and cruise ships in western countries with peaks in colder seasons (winter epidemics) (Centers of disease control 2006; Verhoef et al. Definition: only infections that are newly discovered in humans are listed in this chapter: HIV, new variant of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD), hemorrhagic uremic syndrome (HUS) caused by enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli, viral hemorrhagic fevers like Hanta, Lassa, Ebola, and Marburg fever, Nipah virus encephalitis, monkeypox, human ehrlichiosis, severe acute respiratory syndrome (coronavirus infection, SARS), and avian influenza (H5N1) (see Fig. 3 .1 and Table 3 .2).

abstract:
  Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) are characterized by a new or an increased occurrence within the last few decades. They include the following categories Emerging diagnosis of infectious diseases: old diseases that are newly classified as infectious diseases because of the discovery of a responsible infectious agent.


id: cord-023853-y5g4ceq9
title: Global Immunization Challenge: Progress and Opportunities
author: Affolder, Rebecca
date: 2009-05-18
txt: ./txt/cord-023853-y5g4ceq9.txt
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mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7176199/
doi: 10.1007/b106524_23
summary:
  Various innovative options for financing wider access to new and underused vaccines in poor countries are explored, including the role of the International Finance Facility for Immunization (IFFIm), the Advanced Market Commitment (AMCs), the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPCI) and Multilateral Debt Relief (MDRI) initiatives, and the Debt Buy-Down program of the World Bank. Through this approach, which will be evaluated in 2010, GAVI Alliance partners are working to help countries to be on a trajectory of eventual independence from GAVI support, acknowledging, however, that, for most of the GAVI-eligible countries this is likely to require a very long time Over the next decade, the ability of developing countries to achieve sustainable introduction of new technologies will be largely dependent on how donor funds are provided, particularly whether there is a shift toward long-term, predictable aid and if innovative financing instruments are appropriately aligned and taken to scale.

abstract:
  After reading this chapter and answering the discussion questions that follow, you should be able to: Outline important milestones in the emergence of vaccines as a means of disease control and prevention. Discuss factors that underpin the disparity in access to vaccines between rich and poor countries. Identify and appraise innovative options for financing vaccine development, and for ensuring wider access to new and underused vaccines in developing countries. Evaluate strategies for ensuring sustainability in vaccine development, management, and access. Outline priorities for future research, policy, and practice with regard to vaccine development, procurement, and access.


id: cord-023993-rncleqqy
title: Long-Lasting Solutions to the Problem of Migration in Europe
author: Ramírez, J. Martín
date: 2020-03-12
txt: ./txt/cord-023993-rncleqqy.txt
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mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7183294/
doi: 10.1007/978-3-030-43253-9_10
summary:
  In a previous publication on the refugee crisis in Europe and its security challenges, I concluded that a global problem like this one could not be solved without an adequate orderly, and controlled immigration policy, creating systematic and controlled arrival and integration programs, because the mental structure of European societies is not prepared to face a disorderly increase in migration flows (Ramirez 2017 (Ramirez , 2019 . A key move to avoid the "calling effect" is to guarantee security and economic agreements -migration control has to be paid with money-, with those countries migrants transit through in their way to Europe, preventing them from leaving its coasts and returning to their country of origin those people whose asylum in the EU has been denied.

abstract:
  This is the following of a previous publication on the refugee crisis in Europe and its security challenges. Here we suggest some long-lasting solutions to the problem of migration. These may be summarize in four points: dealing with the countries of origin and of transit, adequate control of borders, and positive measures to facilitate the integration of the newcomers in their countries of destination.


id: cord-027905-edb9yozz
author: Narula, Rajneesh
date: 2020-06-25
txt: ./txt/cord-027905-edb9yozz.txt
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mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7316424/
doi: 10.1057/s42214-020-00059-5
summary:
  I suggest the crisis provides the circumstances for greater active engagement with informal actors, by placing informal enterprises on a par with formal firms within industrial policy. The most visible effect of the COVID-19 crisis in the developed world has been to the unemployed, the self-employed, casual and gig-workers, and small-scale entrepreneurs and businesses, which can be imperfectly described as those people and enterprises being in the informal sector. Second, in the medium term, we will see a greater exclusion of the informal economy from productive activity by GVCs. Both will be to the detriment of countries seeking to leverage their low labour costs by engaging with manufacturing supply chains. The crisis has exposed significant market failures (e.g. allocative and productive inefficiencies, ''strategic'' restrictions on exports) that represent new opportunities for entrepreneurs, and provide the circumstances for a modest infant industry industrialisation, by placing informal enterprises on a par with formal domestic firms.

title:
  Policy opportunities and challenges from the COVID-19 pandemic for economies with large informal sectors

abstract:
  In the developing world, the informal economy can account for as much as 80% of the population. I focus on the urban component of informality, where both informal employment and informal enterprises are especially vulnerable to the pandemic-induced economic shock. I explain the complex nature of informality, some of the reasons for its persistence and its interdependency with the formal economy, especially in the manufacturing sector, through global value chains (GVCs). Large firms (whether MNEs or domestic firms) sub-contract considerable activity to informal enterprises, but this is precarious in character. I suggest the crisis provides the circumstances for greater active engagement with informal actors, by placing informal enterprises on a par with formal firms within industrial policy. I propose integration and registration, as opposed to formalisation, and the provision of state support without taxation. The role of the state is also crucial in matchmaking, creating incentives for GVCs to engage with informal actors systematically, and to reduce the transaction costs for informal actors in such engagement. These actions are likely to provide benefits in the longer run, even if they prove costly in the short run.


id: cord-027960-qzg2jsz6
title: From Boom to Bust: The Economic Crisis in Spain 2008–2013
author: Royo, Sebastián
date: 2020-06-28
txt: ./txt/cord-027960-qzg2jsz6.txt
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mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7320871/
doi: 10.1057/978-1-137-53228-2_4
summary:
  Indeed, EMU membership (and the Stability Pact) provided the country with unprecedented stability because it forced successive governments to implement responsible economic policies, which led to greater credibility and the improvement of the ratings of Spain''s public debt (and consequently to lower financing costs). The global liquidity freeze and the surge in commodities, food, and energy prices brought to the fore the unbalances in the Spanish economy: the record current account deficit, persisting inflation, low productivity growth, dwindling competitiveness, increasing unitary labor costs, excess consumption, and low savings, had all set the ground for the current devastating economic crisis (see Royo 2013) . During the years of euphoria following the launching of Europe''s economic and monetary union and prior to the onset of the financial crisis, private capital flowed freely into Spain and, as a result as we have seen, the country ran current account deficits of close to 10% of GDP.

abstract:
  This chapter analyzes the overall economic crisis that started in 2008 in Spain. It is impossible to disentangle the 2008 banking crisis from the overall economic crisis that affected the country at the same time. This chapter looks at the performance of the Spanish economy throughout the 1990s and the first decade of the twentieth century. It examines the reasons for the success of the Spanish economy in the 1990s and provides an overview of the main causes of the 2008–2013 crisis and the governments’ responses.


id: cord-028627-22d90q83
title: How globalization became a thing that goes bump in the night
author: Kobrin, Stephen J.
date: 2020-07-06
txt: ./txt/cord-028627-22d90q83.txt
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extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7338102/
doi: 10.1057/s42214-020-00060-y
summary:
  It has emphasized the dangers rather than the benefits of efficient linkages between markets, laying bare the dangers of complex global supply chains where any node can become a "choke point", and the risks of overspecialization or the concentration of technological knowledge and/or production capacity in a single country or region. Although it may be an over-generalization, it is fair to say that, until the very late twentieth century, globalization was seen as a net positive, that international trade, investment, and economic integration (e.g., the European Union) allowed both the more efficient use of the world''s resources and the development of large-scale technology. Both the rise of economic nationalism (e.g., America First) and the COVID pandemic revealed the serious risks of reliance on very complex networks of global supply chains in many industries.

abstract:
  For almost 200 years, globalization has been seen as a positive development, albeit with costs and benefits, and as progress and modernization, a broadening of humanity’s scope from the local and parochial to the cosmopolitan and international. That changed dramatically with the Great Recession, the waves of migration of the last decade, and the global Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic of 2020. For many, globalization now connotes economic dislocation, increasing inequality, unwanted immigration, and a vehicle for the transmission of disease. The pandemic reminds us that most economic activity takes place within national borders. It has emphasized the dangers rather than the benefits of efficient linkages between markets, laying bare the dangers of complex global supply chains where any node can become a “choke point”, and the risks of overspecialization or the concentration of technological knowledge and/or production capacity in a single country or region. A more positive view of globalization will require restoring the balance between independence and integration, mitigation of its costs within and between countries, and dealing with redundancy and supply risk.


id: cord-029981-1jk9mp8r
title: COVID-19 Pandemic with Human Mobility Across Countries
author: Zhang, Cheng
date: 2020-08-03
txt: ./txt/cord-029981-1jk9mp8r.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-029981-1jk9mp8r.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7396460/
doi: 10.1007/s40305-020-00317-6
summary:
  By using a unique human mobility dataset containing 547 166 flights with a total capacity of 101 455 913 passengers from January 22 to April 24, 2020, we analyze the epidemic correlations across 22 countries in six continents and particularly the changes in such correlations before and after implementing the international travel restriction policies targeting different countries. This study responds to this urgent call by developing a spatial-temporal model with network dynamics [15, 16] to understand the correlation between the COVID-19 epidemics in different countries accounting for the inter-country human mobility and international travel restrictions targeting different countries. Given the spatial nature of this research, we develop a dynamic network model based on the spatial-temporal features [15, 16] to examine the extent to which the number of newly confirmed infections in each country is correlated with the cumulative number of infections in each of the remaining 21 countries, by taking into account (1) the mobility volume between countries, (2) the introduction of inter-country travel restriction policies targeting different countries at different time point, and (3) internal movement restriction within each country.

abstract:
  This study develops a holistic view of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) spread worldwide through a spatial–temporal model with network dynamics. By using a unique human mobility dataset containing 547 166 flights with a total capacity of 101 455 913 passengers from January 22 to April 24, 2020, we analyze the epidemic correlations across 22 countries in six continents and particularly the changes in such correlations before and after implementing the international travel restriction policies targeting different countries. Results show that policymakers should move away from the previous practices that focus only on restricting hotspot areas with high infection rates. Instead, they should develop a new holistic view of global human mobility to impose the international movement restriction. The study further highlights potential correlations between international human mobility and focal countries’ epidemic situations in the global network of COVID-19 pandemic. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s40305-020-00317-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.


id: cord-030926-vtids9ns
title: Trans-boundary commons in infectious diseases
author: Laxminarayan, Ramanan
date: 2016-02-15
txt: ./txt/cord-030926-vtids9ns.txt
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extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7448792/
doi: 10.1093/oxrep/grv030
summary:
  Emerging threats to global health, including drug-resistant pathogens, emerging pandemics, and outbreaks, represent global trans-boundary commons problems where the actions of individual countries have consequences for other countries. Other examples of country-level actions with global consequences include inadequate vaccination coverage; slow progress on disease elimination; failure to report and contain pandemic flu, antibiotic resistance, and counterfeit drugs; and climate-related health threats. More recently, campaigns to eliminate smallpox and eradicate malaria have been built on the idea that infectious disease control depends not just on national priorities but also on the priorities of one''s neighbours and trading partners. Current International Health Regulations, which were first enacted in 1951 and most recently revised in 2005, require countries to report disease outbreaks. Therefore, it is often essential to have cooperative financing mechanisms for global health interventions, whether to eradicate disease, encourage appropriate levels of disease surveillance and reporting, or to reduce the likelihood of drug resistance.

abstract:
  Emerging threats to global health, including drug-resistant pathogens, emerging pandemics, and outbreaks, represent global trans-boundary commons problems where the actions of individual countries have consequences for other countries. Here, we review what economic analysis can offer in countering these problems through the design of interventions that modify the behaviour of institutions and nations in the direction of greatest global good.


id: cord-032256-7yrh16ab
title: The economics of the COVID-19 pandemic: an assessment
author: Susskind, Daniel
date: 2020-08-29
txt: ./txt/cord-032256-7yrh16ab.txt
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mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7499690/
doi: 10.1093/oxrep/graa036
summary:
  The two are closely related: it is becoming clear that the use of compulsory lockdowns-by the end of March 2020, over 100 countries had one in place-had an important signalling effect at the start of the pandemic, making clear how critical it was for individuals to change their behaviour. In turn, there appear to be important age inequalities, too: the International Labour Office (ILO), for instance, argues that young people have been ''disproportionately affected'' by the pandemic, which has disrupted their education and training, and forced them out of work; one in six young people surveyed by the ILO, for example, had stopped working since the start of the COVID-19 crisis (ILO, 2020). (2020, this issue) argue, as we move out of lockdown and into a tentative period of recovery, it will be necessary to consider a new set of policy options: extension of short-time work and possible temporary subsidy for re-employment; corporation tax incentives; VAT reductions; and a holiday from taxes on business property.

abstract:
  The COVID-19 pandemic has created both a medical crisis and an economic crisis. As others have noted, we face challenges just as big as those in the Spanish Flu Pandemic and the Great Depression—all at once. The tasks facing policy-makers are extraordinary. Many new kinds of intervention are urgently required. This issue of the Oxford Review of Economic Policy has two objectives. The first is to explore these new interventions: evaluating their use, suggesting how they might be improved, and proposing alternatives. The second is to show that the challenges facing us are global and will require international cooperation if they are to be dealt with effectively. This short introductory essay positions the papers in the issue within an overall conceptual framework, with the aim of telling an overarching story about the pandemic.


id: cord-032269-zhk5fyfc
title: Social protection response to the COVID-19 crisis: options for developing countries
author: Gerard, François
date: 2020-08-29
txt: ./txt/cord-032269-zhk5fyfc.txt
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extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7499734/
doi: 10.1093/oxrep/graa026
summary:
  These strategies could include expanding their social insurance system, building on existing social assistance programmes, and involving local governments and non-state institutions to identify and assist vulnerable groups who are otherwise harder to reach. Moreover, setting up a new job retention scheme might be logistically easier than setting up an unemployment insurance programme, as governments could use firms as intermediaries to channel the income support to their workers. Social insurance programmes will fail to reach a large share of households in developing countries, in particular those mostly active in the informal sector of the economy. A comprehensive social protection response could involve local governments and a range of non-state actors to collect better information on these unmet needs and to deliver targeted assistance. Government responses based on social insurance programmes may reach many formal employees and registered self-employed (although coarsely), but will miss the informal sector, which is an important part of developing countries'' workforce.

abstract:
  The public health response to COVID-19 in many countries has involved strict restrictions on movement and economic activity which threaten the livelihoods of economically vulnerable households. In response, governments are adopting emergency economic measures to provide households with some safety net. We provide an overview of the policies that could form a comprehensive social protection strategy in low-income and middle-income countries, with examples of specific policies that have been adopted. Our core argument is that these countries can cast an emergency safety net with extensive coverage if they use a broader patchwork of solutions than higher-income countries. These strategies could include expanding their social insurance system, building on existing social assistance programmes, and involving local governments and non-state institutions to identify and assist vulnerable groups who are otherwise harder to reach.


id: cord-033356-ppn71yd0
author: Abbott, Frederick M
date: 2020-09-28
txt: ./txt/cord-033356-ppn71yd0.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-033356-ppn71yd0.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7543411/
doi: 10.1093/jiel/jgaa022
summary:
  The authors finally address the problem created by the decision of various high-income countries to ''opt out'' as eligible importing countries under the World Trade Organization TRIPS Agreement Article 31bis amendment that addresses the predominant export of pharmaceutical products under compulsory licenses. 18 At the time of writing, a number of pharmaceutical companies that are receiving substantial government subsidies to develop vaccines and treatments to address COVID-19 have declared that they intend to provide them on a ''not-for-profit'' basis, although nothing in their grant arrangements appears to require specific pricing commitments, 19 and there is limited public transparency on this account. 70 For present purposes, we emphasize that a pooled procurement strategy along these lines would also greatly strengthen the inherent power of governments in developing countries to threaten and, when needed, to issue compulsory licenses for patented pharmaceuticals under Articles 31 and 31bis of the TRIPS Agreement.

title:
  Facilitating Access to Cross-Border Supplies of Patented Pharmaceuticals: The Case of the COVID-19 Pandemic

abstract:
  The COVID-19 pandemic has brought into stark relief the gaps in global preparedness to address widespread outbreaks of deadly viral infections. This article proposes legal mechanisms for addressing critical issues facing the international community in terms of providing equitable access to vaccines, treatments, diagnostics, and medical equipment. On the supply side, the authors propose the establishment of mandatory patent pools (‘Licensing Facilities’) on a global or regional, or even national basis, depending upon the degree of cooperation that may be achieved. The authors also discuss the importance of creating shared production facilities. On the demand side, the authors propose the establishment of Regional Pharmaceutical Supply Centers (RPSCs) for the collective procurement of products, and the need to coordinate the issuance of necessary compulsory licenses for production and/or importation, depending on relevant circumstances. The authors envisage that centralized coordination by RPSCs should assist in overcoming difficulties individual countries may encounter in addressing administrative and technical issues in procuring supplies, as well as creating improved bargaining leverage with potential suppliers. The authors finally address the problem created by the decision of various high-income countries to ‘opt out’ as eligible importing countries under the World Trade Organization TRIPS Agreement Article 31bis amendment that addresses the predominant export of pharmaceutical products under compulsory licenses.


id: cord-033671-b7lg8099
title: Twenty-five years since TRIPS: Patent policy and international business
author: Athreye, Suma
date: 2020-10-12
txt: ./txt/cord-033671-b7lg8099.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-033671-b7lg8099.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7549422/
doi: 10.1057/s42214-020-00079-1
summary:
  We begin by providing a brief background on TRIPS, putting it in the historical context of international agreements on intellectual property (IP) and then looking at the logic of national patent policies, examining how policies may vary across countries, in theory, and reviewing literature that discusses the factors driving historical variation, in practice. The Uruguay Round of trade negotiations, which began in 1986 and concluded in 1994 with the signing of the Marrakesh Agreement by all 123 negotiating countries, was notable for numerous reasons, including the formal integration of intellectual property rights into international trade rules. When the World Trade Organization (WTO) was launched in 1995, a product of the Uruguay Round, one of its main pillars would be the Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS). Intellectual property rights, the WTO and developing countries: The TRIPS agreement and policy options

abstract:
  In this introduction to the special issue, we take stock of the impact of the TRIPS agreement on international business in the hyper-globalised world of the late twentieth and early twenty-first century. We begin by providing a brief background on TRIPS, putting it in the historical context of international agreements on intellectual property (IP) and then looking at the logic of national patent policies, examining how policies may vary across countries, in theory, and reviewing literature that discusses the factors driving historical variation, in practice. We review the key issues in the domestic politics of implementation as the new rules migrate from the international to national levels. Lastly, we consider the implications of TRIPS for the governance of innovations in industries based on ICT and where ICT has enabled global value chains (GVCs), where the speed and distributed nature of innovation makes IPR simultaneously less effective and more necessary.


id: cord-034575-kio60itg
author: Lafleur, Jean-Michel
date: 2020-10-31
txt: ./txt/cord-034575-kio60itg.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-034575-kio60itg.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7605455/
doi: 10.1007/978-3-030-51245-3_1
summary:
  Drawing on data from two original surveys with national experts, we operationalize the concepts of descriptive infrastructure for non-residents (i.e. the presence of diaspora-related institutions) and substantive infrastructure (i.e. policies that provide and facilitate access to welfare for nationals abroad) in order to propose a new typology of states'' engagement with their diaspora in the area of social protection. With the concept of diaspora infrastructure, we aim to highlight the fact that sending states'' engagement with nationals abroad in the area of welfare consists of both institutions (consulates, ministries or sub-ministries in charge of emigration issues) and policies (rights and support services) aiming to protect the diaspora against vulnerability or social risks. As previously mentioned, we operationalise sending states'' descriptive infrastructure as the institutional framework that comprises home countries'' public institutions at the national level which meet both conditions of having a mandate to engage primarily with the diaspora and being active in the adoption or implementation of social protection policies that benefit this population.

title:
  Do EU Member States Care About their Diasporas’ Access to Social Protection? A Comparison of Consular and Diaspora Policies across EU27

abstract:
  Despite the growing literature on sending states’ engagement with their populations abroad, little is known so far about their role in helping the diaspora deal with social risks. As argued in this chapter, this is mainly because past studies on sending states’ policies and institutions for the diaspora have failed to systematically focus on social protection, while also ignoring that regional integration dynamics often constrain domestic responses to the welfare needs of nationals residing abroad. This volume aims to fill this research gap by comparatively examining the type of diaspora infrastructure through which EU Member States address the vulnerabilities faced by populations abroad in five core areas of social protection: health care, pensions, family, unemployment, and economic hardship. Drawing on data from two original surveys with national experts, we operationalize the concepts of descriptive infrastructure for non-residents (i.e. the presence of diaspora-related institutions) and substantive infrastructure (i.e. policies that provide and facilitate access to welfare for nationals abroad) in order to propose a new typology of states’ engagement with their diaspora in the area of social protection.


id: cord-035137-uxtaw02u
author: Chowdhury, Anis Z.
date: 2020-11-10
txt: ./txt/cord-035137-uxtaw02u.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-035137-uxtaw02u.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7653449/
doi: 10.1057/s41301-020-00256-y
summary:
  But most national authorities outside of East Asia did not take adequate early precautionary measures speedily enough to contain the spread of the outbreak, typically by promoting safe ''physical distancing'', obligatory use of masks in public areas, and other measures to reduce the spread and likelihood of infection. Government capacity to respond depends crucially on system capacity and capabilities-e.g., authorities'' ability to speedily trace, isolate and treat the infected-and available fiscal resources-e.g., to quickly enhance testing capacity and secure personal protective equipment (PPE). Finally, it draws some implications of different policy responses in East Asia, Southeast Asia-especially Vietnam, and India''s Kerala state-Argentina, Brazil and Peru, that are relevant for other countries. And where communities or clusters had significant infection rates, urgent, targeted measures could have helped ''turn the tide'' on COVID-19 with decisive early actions, as in China, Korea and Vietnam, without imposing nationwide ''stay in shelter'' or ''shelter in place'' lockdowns, 16 or restrictions on movements of people within its borders.

title:
  Responding to the COVID-19 Pandemic in Developing Countries: Lessons from Selected Countries of the Global South

abstract:
  Reviewing selected policy responses in Asia and South America, this paper draws pragmatic lessons for developing countries to better address the COVID-19 pandemic. It argues that not acting quickly and adequately incurs much higher costs. So-called ‘best practices’, while useful, may be inappropriate, especially if not complemented by effective and suitable socio-economic measures. Public understanding, support and cooperation, not harsh and selective enforcement of draconian measures, are critical for successful implementation of containment strategies. This requires inclusive and transparent policy-making, and well-coordinated and accountable government actions that build and maintain trust between citizens and government. In short, addressing the pandemic crisis needs ‘all of government’ and ‘whole of society’ approaches under credible leadership.


id: cord-128436-xndrlnav
title: Comparative analysis of the diffusion of Covid-19 infection in different countries
author: Granozio, Fabio Miletto
date: 2020-03-18
txt: ./txt/cord-128436-xndrlnav.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-128436-xndrlnav.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.08661v1.pdf
doi: nan
summary:
  The comparative analysis of the registered cases curves highlights remarkable similarities, especially among Western countries, together with some minor but crucial differences. We analyse here the data of three of the countries that registered at the date of March 15 the highest cumulative number of registered cases, i.e. China, Italy, and South Korea. The comparison of the plots shows that, in spite of the extremely fast growth rate ( =2.4d, corresponding to a doubling time of one day) the rapid response of the Korean society allowed to switch the growth to a slower rate before reaching 500 registered infected people. When plotted with the appropriate relative time scale (IT reference, DE, FR -9d, ES -10d, US -11d), the data show how early or late the different countries deviated from the red exponential "phase #1" curve with  ~2.0d, D ~2.0d.

abstract:
  The sudden spread of Covid-19 outside China has pushed on March 11 the World Health Organization to acknowledge the ongoing outbreak as a pandemic. It is crucial in this phase to understand what should countries which presently lag behind in the spread of the infection learn from countries where the infection spread earlier. The choice of this work is to prefer timeliness to comprehensiveness. By adopting a purely empirical approach, we will limit ourselves to identifying different phases in the plots of different countries, based on their different functional behaviour, and to make a comparative analysis. The comparative analysis of the registered cases curves highlights remarkable similarities, especially among Western countries, together with some minor but crucial differences. We highlight how timeliness can largely reduce the size of the individual national outbreaks, ultimately limiting the final death toll. Our data suggest that Western governments have not unfortunately shown the capability to anticipate their decisions, based on the experience of countries hit earlier by the outbreak.


id: cord-144860-a4i9vnjz
author: Nason, Guy P.
date: 2020-04-16
txt: ./txt/cord-144860-a4i9vnjz.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-144860-a4i9vnjz.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.07696v1.pdf
doi: nan
summary:
  Here we show that transformed new daily COVID-19 cases for many countries generally contain three cycles operating at wavelengths of around 2.7, 4.1 and 6.7 days (weekly). However, we show that there are considerable and useful similarities in the underlying cyclic (spectral) behaviours of the numbers of new daily COVID-19 cases for a range of different countries (see Extended Data figures). Using data [2] from all of the countries we considered, our results show that transformed new daily COVID-19 cases have three underlying cycles: one operating at a wavelength of 2.7 days, a second at 4.1 days and a third at 6.7 days, which we take to be a weekly effect. Given the similarity of the cycles across countries, this indicates that cases could be monitored and pooled across regions, over a short number of days to be fused into longer effective samples using the methods described here.

title:
  Rapidly evaluating lockdown strategies using spectral analysis: the cycles behind new daily COVID-19 cases and what happens after lockdown

abstract:
  Spectral analysis characterises oscillatory time series behaviours such as cycles, but accurate estimation requires reasonable numbers of observations. Current COVID-19 time series for many countries are short: pre- and post-lockdown series are shorter still. Accurate estimation of potentially interesting cycles within such series seems beyond reach. We solve the problem of obtaining accurate estimates from short time series by using recent Bayesian spectral fusion methods. Here we show that transformed new daily COVID-19 cases for many countries generally contain three cycles operating at wavelengths of around 2.7, 4.1 and 6.7 days (weekly). We show that the shorter cycles are suppressed after lockdown. The pre- and post lockdown differences suggest that the weekly effect is at least partly due to non-epidemic factors, whereas the two shorter cycles seem intrinsic to the epidemic. Unconstrained, new cases grow exponentially, but the internal cyclic structure causes periodic falls in cases. This suggests that lockdown success might only be indicated by four or more daily falls in cases. Spectral learning for epidemic time series contributes to the understanding of the epidemic process, helping evaluate interventions and assists with forecasting. Spectral fusion is a general technique that is able to fuse spectra recorded at different sampling rates, which can be applied to a wide range of time series from many disciplines.


id: cord-171089-z4oya6kz
title: Can pandemics transform scientific novelty? Evidence from COVID-19
author: Liu, Meijun
date: 2020-09-26
txt: ./txt/cord-171089-z4oya6kz.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-171089-z4oya6kz.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2009.12500v1.pdf
doi: nan
summary:
  Our analysis of 58,728 coronavirus papers suggests that scientific novelty measured by the BioBERT model that is pre-trained on 29 million PubMed articles, and parachuting collaboration dramatically increased after the outbreak of COVID-19, while international collaboration witnessed a sudden decrease. Building on the "knowledge recombination" theory (4) and the combinatorial perspective of novelty (3, 9) , we assess papers'' scientific novelty by quantifying how extraordinary a combination of bio-entities is in a coronavirus-related paper using BioBERT (Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers for Biomedical Text Mining) (10), a language model that is pre-trained on 29 million PubMed articles. We examine the association between monthly change in scientific novelty, parachuting collaboration ratio and international collaboration of coronavirus papers by 50 sampled countries and their status as a confirmed COVID-19 infection site from January 2018 to April 2020 by month.

abstract:
  Scientific novelty is important during the pandemic due to its critical role in generating new vaccines. Parachuting collaboration and international collaboration are two crucial channels to expand teams' search activities for a broader scope of resources required to address the global challenge. Our analysis of 58,728 coronavirus papers suggests that scientific novelty measured by the BioBERT model that is pre-trained on 29 million PubMed articles, and parachuting collaboration dramatically increased after the outbreak of COVID-19, while international collaboration witnessed a sudden decrease. During the COVID-19, papers with more parachuting collaboration and internationally collaborative papers are predicted to be more novel. The findings suggest the necessity of reaching out for distant resources, and the importance of maintaining a collaborative scientific community beyond established networks and nationalism during a pandemic.


id: cord-234737-trshrh6f
title: Temperature dependence of COVID-19 transmission
author: Notari, Alessio
date: 2020-03-27
txt: ./txt/cord-234737-trshrh6f.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-234737-trshrh6f.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.12417v4.pdf
doi: nan
summary:
  The recent coronavirus pandemic follows in its early stages an almost exponential growth, with the number of cases quite well fit in time by $N(t)propto e^{alpha t}$, in many countries. We start our analysis from the empirical observation that the data for the coronavirus disease in many different countries follow a common pattern: once the number of confirmed cases reaches order 10 there is a very rapid subsequent growth, which is well fit by an exponential behavior. Finally we have tested the existence of a possible bias on the data: the fact that poor countries V: In the left panel: best-estimate, standard deviation (σ) and 95% C.L. intervals for the parameters of the linear interpolation, for the extended set of 125 countries. Table VI: In the top panel: best-estimate, standard error (σ), t−statistic and p−value for the parameters of the linear interpolation in two-variables, temperature (T) and GDP per capita (GDP ), for the extended set of 125 countries.

abstract:
  The recent coronavirus pandemic follows in its early stages an almost exponential growth, with the number of cases quite well fit in time by $N(t)propto e^{alpha t}$, in many countries. We analyze the rate $alpha$ for each country, starting from a threshold of 30 total cases and using the next 12 days, capturing thus the early growth homogeneously. We look for a link between $alpha$ and the average temperature $T$ of each country, in the month of the epidemic growth. We analyze a {it base} set of 42 countries, which developed the epidemic earlier, an {it intermediate} set of 88 countries and an {it extended} set of 125 countries, which developed the epidemic more recently. Applying a linear fit $alpha(T)$, we find increasing evidence for a decreasing $alpha$ as a function of $T$, at $99.66%$C.L., $99.86%$C.L. and $99.99995 %$ C.L. ($p$-value $5 cdot 10^{-7}$, or 5$sigma$ detection) in the {it base}, {it intermediate} and {it extended} dataset, respectively. The doubling time is expected to increase by $40%sim 50%$, going from $5^circ$ C to $25^circ$ C. In the {it base} set, going beyond a linear model, a peak at $(7.7pm 3.6)^circ C$ seems to be present, but its evidence disappears for the larger datasets. We also analyzed a possible bias: poor countries, often located in warm regions, might have less intense testing. By excluding countries below a given GDP per capita, we find that our conclusions are only slightly affected and only for the {it extended} dataset. The significance remains high, with a $p$-value of $10^{-3}-10^{-4}$ or less. Our findings give hope that, for northern hemisphere countries, the growth rate should significantly decrease as a result of both warmer weather and lockdown policies. In general the propagation should be hopefully stopped by strong lockdown, testing and tracking policies, before the arrival of the cold season.


id: cord-252244-y5w9hjy8
title: Covid-19 trajectories: Monitoring pandemic in the worldwide context
author: Loeffler-Wirth, H.
date: 2020-06-05
txt: ./txt/cord-252244-y5w9hjy8.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-252244-y5w9hjy8.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.04.20120725
doi: 10.1101/2020.06.04.20120725
summary:
  Different models, mostly assuming a series of diseases states such as the ''Susceptible-Infected-Removed'' (SIR) types (see below) have been used to describe ''epi-curves'' of selected countries and regions under consideration of i) spatial heterogeneous outbreak and transmission scenarios, and ii) the effect of NPIs [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] . The obtained trajectories then enable to visually estimate the dynamic state of epidemic in terms of simple shape characteristics such as slope, parallel shifts or turning points with direct relations to transmission and removal rates of the disease. They enable monitoring the state in terms of differences and similarities between the countries and geographic regions revealing specifics and commons of epidemic spread: (i) A unique linear slope of most of the trajectories in the intermediate abscissa range is indicative for exponential growth in early phases of the outbreak of the pandemic (low level of immunity in the population).

abstract:
  Background: Covid-19 pandemic is developing worldwide with common dynamics but also with partly marked differences between regions and countries. They are not completely understood, but presumably, provide one clue to find ways to mitigate epidemics until exit strategies to its eradication become available. Method: We provide a monitoring tool available at www.izbi.de. It enables inspection of the dynamic state of the epidemic in 187 countries using trajectories. They visualize transmission and removal rates of the epidemic and this way bridge epi-curve tracking with modelling approaches. Results: Examples were provided which characterize state of epidemic in different regions of the world in terms of fast and slow growing and decaying regimes and estimate associated rate factors. Basic spread of the disease associates with transmission between two individuals every two-three days on the average. Non-pharmaceutical interventions decrease this value to up to ten days where complete lock down measures are required to stop the epidemic. Comparison of trajectories revealed marked differences between the countries regarding efficiency of measures taken against the epidemic. Trajectories also reveal marked country-specific dynamics of recovery and death rates. Conclusions: The results presented refer to the pandemic state in May 2020 and can serve as working instruction for timely monitoring using the interactive monitoring tool as a sort of seismometer for the evaluation of the state of epidemic, e.g., the possible effect of measures taken in both, lock-down and lock-up directions. Comparison of trajectories between countries and regions will support developing hypotheses and models to better understand regional differences of dynamics of Covid-19.


id: cord-254234-8w1z3un6
title: Cryptosporidium and Cryptosporidiosis: The Perspective from the Gulf Countries
author: Ahmed, Shahira A.
date: 2020-09-18
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32962045/
doi: 10.3390/ijerph17186824
abstract:
  The present review discusses the burden of cryptosporidiosis in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), which is underreported and underestimated. It emphasizes that the Cryptosporidium parasite is infecting inhabitants and expatriates in the Gulf countries. Children under 5 years are a vulnerable group that is particularly affected by this parasitic disease and can act as carriers, who contribute to the epidemiology of the disease most probably via recreational swimming pools. Various risk factors for cryptosporidiosis in the GCC countries are present, including expatriates, predisposing populations to the infection. Water contamination, imported food, animal contact, and air transmission are also discussed in detail, to address their significant role as a source of infection and, thus, their impact on disease epidemiology in the Gulf countries’ populations.


id: cord-254620-xcblqg4z
title: Immunization governance: Mandatory immunization in 28 Global NITAG Network countries()
author: Harmon, Shawn H.E.
date: 2020-09-26
txt: ./txt/cord-254620-xcblqg4z.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-254620-xcblqg4z.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264410X20312238
doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2020.09.053
summary:
  More detailed empirical case studies would be necessary to uncover the policy reasons for the presence or absence of mandates within NIPs. Nonetheless, it may be reasonable to infer that lower-income countries have fewer human and financial resources to undertake, administer, and enforce mandayWe were unable to verify the legal basis for mandatory immunization in Jordan. Survey participants in countries with mandatory immunization were asked about specific populations subject to mandates (i.e., age [children under 1 and 5 years of age and school-aged children -that yExcludes Canada and the USA due to subnational variation in those countries. However, it should be noted that these subnational jurisdictions appear also to have relatively broad mandates -Ontario and New Brunswick require immunization against 9 and 11 infectious diseases, respectively, for school entry, with similarthough varying -numbers for US states.

abstract:
  International trends currently favour greater use of mandatory immunization. There has been little academic consideration or comparison of the existence and scope of mandatory immunization internationally. In this paper, we examine mandatory immunization in 28 Global NITAG (National Immunization Technical Advisory Group) Network (GNN) countries, including countries from every WHO region and World Bank income level classification. We found that although mandatory immunization programs, or mandatory elements within broader immunization programs, are relatively common, jurisdictions vary significantly with respect to the immunizations required, population groups affected, grounds for exemptions, and penalties for non-compliance. We also observed some loose associations with geography and income level. Based on these data, we categorized policies into a spectrum ranging from Narrow to Broad scope.


id: cord-254737-pv68fb7d
title: Analysing governmental response to the COVID-19 pandemic
author: Imtyaz, Ayman
date: 2020-08-14
txt: ./txt/cord-254737-pv68fb7d.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-254737-pv68fb7d.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212426820301214?v=s5
doi: 10.1016/j.jobcr.2020.08.005
summary:
  The data that will be considered for the study are aggregated COVID-19 patient statistics like daily cases, deaths, recoveries, testing data, etc. The data used in the analysis conducted were obtained from publically available, and the government reported statistics on COVID-19 patients in their countries. Countries were separated into groups based on the percentage of their elderly population, and the COVID-19 mortality rate (total deaths/total cases). The mortality rate is the total number of deaths attributed to the virus divided by the total number of COVID-19 positive cases. The variance in the chart may/can be attributed to other factors, such as handling of COVID-19positive patients, methods of data collection and reporting, other population demographics like genetic makeup, trends in disease, disabilities, and malnutrition, competency, scale, and accessibility of the country''s medical apparatus, economic status of the country (GDP, PPP, poverty levels, etc.).

abstract:
  Abstract Background and aims COVID-19, which started as an epidemic from China in November 2019, was first reported to WHO in December 2019. It had spread to almost all countries globally by March 2020. The pandemic severely affected health and economy globally, prompting countries to take drastic measures to combat the virus. This study aims to analyze different governments' responses to the pandemic to gain insights on how best to fight the Coronavirus. Methodology Various data analysis operations like clustering and bivariate analysis were carried out using Python, Pandas, Scikit-Learn, and Matplotlib to clean up, consolidate, and visualize data. Insights were drawn from the analysis conducted. Results We identified that the mortality rate/case fatality rate is directly proportional to the percentage of elderly (people above 65 years of age) for the top thirty countries by cases. Countries in Western Europe showed the highest mortality rates, whereas countries in South Asia and the Middle East showed the lowest mortality rate (controlling for all other variables). Conclusion Lockdowns are effective in curbing the spread of the virus. A higher amount of testing resulted in a lesser spreading of the virus and better control. In most regions, countries that were conducting a large number of tests also seemed to have lower mortality rates.


id: cord-254874-ug0ler5e
author: Ramos-Rincón, José M.
date: 2019-09-05
txt: ./txt/cord-254874-ug0ler5e.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-254874-ug0ler5e.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12874-019-0819-4
doi: 10.1186/s12874-019-0819-4
summary:
  BACKGROUND: This article describes a bibliometric review of the scientific production, geographical distribution, collaboration, impact, and subject area focus of pneumonia research indexed on the Web of Science over a 15-year period. The only document types we studied were original articles and reviews, analyzing descriptive indicators by five-year periods and the scientific production by country, adjusting for population, economic, and research-related parameters. In this study, by analyzing scientific papers on pneumonia published in the main international scientific journals, we aimed to identify the scientific contribution of different countries to the worldwide research effort, the most cited landmark articles, the degree and nature of scientific collaboration, and the topics addressed. Specifically, we will analyze: (1) the evolution of scientific production; (2) its distribution by countries and regions; (3) the impact of the research papers; and (4) the degree of international collaboration.

title:
  A snapshot of pneumonia research activity and collaboration patterns (2001–2015): a global bibliometric analysis

abstract:
  BACKGROUND: This article describes a bibliometric review of the scientific production, geographical distribution, collaboration, impact, and subject area focus of pneumonia research indexed on the Web of Science over a 15-year period. METHODS: We searched the Web of Science database using the Medical Subject Heading (MeSH) of “Pneumonia” from January 1, 2001 to December 31, 2015. The only document types we studied were original articles and reviews, analyzing descriptive indicators by five-year periods and the scientific production by country, adjusting for population, economic, and research-related parameters. RESULTS: A total of 22,694 references were retrieved. The number of publications increased steadily over time, from 981 publications in 2001 to 1977 in 2015 (R(2) = 0.956). The most productive country was the USA (38.49%), followed by the UK (7.18%) and Japan (5.46%). Research production from China increased by more than 1000%. By geographical area, North America (42.08%) and Europe (40.79%) were most dominant. Scientific production in low- and middle-income countries more than tripled, although their overall contribution to the field remained limited (< 15%). Overall, 18.8% of papers were the result of an international collaboration, although this proportion was much higher in sub-Saharan Africa (46.08%) and South Asia (23.43%). According to the specific MeSH terms used, articles focused mainly on “Pneumonia, Bacterial” (19.99%), followed by “Pneumonia, Pneumococcal” (7.02%) and “Pneumonia, Ventilator-Associated” (6.79%). CONCLUSIONS: Pneumonia research increased steadily over the 15-year study period, with Europe and North America leading scientific production. About a fifth of all papers reflected international collaborations, and these were most evident in papers from sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1186/s12874-019-0819-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.


id: cord-258885-ev2pvr3s
title: Impact analysis of COVID-19 responses on energy grid dynamics in Europe
author: Werth, Annette
date: 2020-10-22
txt: ./txt/cord-258885-ev2pvr3s.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-258885-ev2pvr3s.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/pii/S030626192031480X
doi: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.116045
summary:
  With this methodology, energy load, generation and international transmission were studied for 16 European countries, for which data were available, to understand how Europe''s electric grid was affected by the epidemic. To understand and measure the impact of governmental restrictions on the electrical power system, at a country level, it is necessary to assess the data recorded during COVID-19 emergency against a counterfactual scenario where the epidemic did not occur. This procedure enabled a systematic determination of the interval of time to study how European countries modulated electrical energy generation, and transmission in order to balance for the reduced consumption. The non-renewable energy sources, such as nuclear and fossil (which includes gas, oil and coal) that typically cover the baseline load, were observed decreasing in generation for most countries, although yearly productions were quite variable (Fig. 5B,C) .

abstract:
  When COVID-19 pandemic spread in Europe, governments imposed unprecedented confinement measures with mostly unknown repercussions on contemporary societies. In some cases, a considerable drop in energy consumption was observed, anticipating a scenario of sizable low-cost energy generation, from renewable sources, expected only for years later. In this paper, the impact of governmental restrictions on electrical load, generation and transmission was investigated in 16 European countries. Using the indices provided by the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker, precise restriction types were found to correlate with the load drop. Then the European grid was analysed to assess how the load drop was balanced by the change in generation and transmission patterns. The same restriction period from 2020 was compared to previous years, accounting for yearly variability with ad-hoc statistical technique. As a result, generation was found to be heavily impacted in most countries with significant load drop. Overall, generation from nuclear, and fossil coal and gas sources was reduced, in favour of renewables and, in some countries, fossil gas. Moreover, intermittent renewables generation increased in most countries without indicating an exceptional amount of curtailments. Finally, the European grid helped balance those changes with an increase in both energy exports and imports, with some net exporting countries becoming net importers, notably Germany, and vice versa. Together, these findings show the far reaching implications of the COVID-19 crisis, and contribute to the understanding and planning of higher renewables share scenarios, which will become more prevalent in the battle against climate change.


id: cord-260826-1n96pz86
title: Differential COVID-19-attributable mortality and BCG vaccine use in countries
author: Shet, Anita
date: 2020-04-06
txt: ./txt/cord-260826-1n96pz86.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-260826-1n96pz86.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.01.20049478
doi: 10.1101/2020.04.01.20049478
summary:
  Using publicly available data we built a simple log-linear regression model to assess the association of BCG use and COVID-19-attributable mortality per 1 million population after adjusting for confounders including country economic status (GDP per capita), and proportion of elderly among the population. Notwithstanding limitations due to testing constraints in LMICs, case ascertainment bias and a plausible rise of cases as countries progress along the epidemiological trajectory, these analyses provide intriguing observations that urgently warrant mobilization of resources for prospective randomized interventional studies and institution of systematic disease surveillance, particularly in LMICs. Novel SARS-CoV2 continues to wreak global havoc. To evaluate the effect of BCG vaccine on mortality attributable to COVID-19, we built a simple log-linear regression model using crude COVID-19-attributable mortality data per 1 million population for each country as outcome, BCG vaccine inclusion in the national immunization schedule as exposure, and adjusted for the effects of the following variables on mortality: country-specific GDP per capita, the percentage of population 65 years and above, and the relative position of each country on the epidemic timeline (days since 100 th case reported as of 29 March 2020).

abstract:
  While mortality attributable to COVID-19 has devastated global health systems and economies, striking regional differences have been observed. The Bacille Calmette Guerin (BCG) vaccine has previously been shown to have non-specific protective effects on infections, as well as long-term efficacy against tuberculosis. Using publicly available data we built a simple log-linear regression model to assess the association of BCG use and COVID-19-attributable mortality per 1 million population after adjusting for confounders including country economic status (GDP per capita), and proportion of elderly among the population. The timing of country entry into the pandemic epidemiological trajectory was aligned by plotting time since the 100th reported case. Countries with economies classified as lower-middle-income, upper-middle-income and high-income countries (LMIC, UMIC, HIC) had median crude COVID-19 log-mortality of 0.4 (Interquartile Range (IQR) 0.1, 0.4), 0.7 (IQR 0.2, 2.2) and 5.5 (IQR 1.6, 13.9), respectively. COVID-19-attributable mortality among BCG-using countries was 5.8 times lower [95% CI 1.8-19.0] than in non BCG-using countries. Notwithstanding limitations due to testing constraints in LMICs, case ascertainment bias and a plausible rise of cases as countries progress along the epidemiological trajectory, these analyses provide intriguing observations that urgently warrant mobilization of resources for prospective randomized interventional studies and institution of systematic disease surveillance, particularly in LMICs.


id: cord-263261-xhem8l39
title: Bismarck and the Long Road to Universal Health Coverage
author: Tulchinsky, Theodore H.
date: 2018-03-30
txt: ./txt/cord-263261-xhem8l39.txt
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extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B9780128045718000317
doi: 10.1016/b978-0-12-804571-8.00031-7
summary:
  Each nation will develop its own unique approach to national health systems, but there are models used by a number of countries based on principles of national responsibility for health, social solidarity for providing funding, and for effective ways of providing care with comprehensiveness, efficiency, quality, and cost containment. Health reform is necessarily a continuing process as all countries must adapt to face challenges of cost constraints, inequalities in access to care, aging populations, emergence of new disease conditions and advancing technology including the growing capacity of medicine, public health and health promotion. Despite rapid increases in health care expenditures during the 1970s and 1980s, despite improved health promotion activities and rapidly developing medical technology, the health status of the American population G Preventive programs strong tradition; screening for cancer; smoking reduction; food fortification, school lunch programs; nutrition support for poor pregnant women and children (WIC); G Hospitals obliged to provide emergency care to all regardless of insurance status, citizenship, legal status or ability to pay has improved less rapidly than that in other western countries and universal coverage has not been achieved.

abstract:
  The 2015 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) state that All United Nations Member States have agreed to try to achieve Universal Health Coverage by 2030. This includes financial risk protection, access to quality essential health care services and access to safe, effective, quality and affordable essential medicines and vaccines for all. Universal health coverage (UHC) means inclusion and empowerment for all people to access medical care, including treatment and prevention services. UHC exists in all the industrial nations except the US, which has a mixed public-private system and struggles with closing the gap between the insured and the uninsured population. Middle- and low-income countries face many challenges for UHC achievement, including low levels of funding, lack of personnel, weak health management, and issues of availability of services favoring middle- and upper-class communities. Community health services for preventive and curative health services for needs in populations at risk for poor health in low-income countries must be addressed with proactive health promotion initiatives for the double burden of infectious and noncommunicable diseases. Each nation will develop its own unique approach to national health systems, but there are models used by a number of countries based on principles of national responsibility for health, social solidarity for providing funding, and for effective ways of providing care with comprehensiveness, efficiency, quality, and cost containment. Universal access does not eliminate social inequalities in health by itself, including a wide context of reducing social inequities. Understanding national health systems requires examining representative models of different systems. Health reform is necessarily a continuing process as all countries must adapt to face challenges of cost constraints, inequalities in access to care, aging populations, emergence of new disease conditions and advancing technology including the growing capacity of medicine, public health and health promotion. The growing stress of increasing obesity, diabetes, and other chronic diseases, requires nations to modify their health care systems. Learning from the systems developed in different countries helps to learn from the processes of change in other countries.


id: cord-265292-yyh1kikb
title: Evolutionary longitudinal network dynamics of global zoonotic research
author: Hossain, Liaquat
date: 2015-03-18
txt: ./txt/cord-265292-yyh1kikb.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-265292-yyh1kikb.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32214547/
doi: 10.1007/s11192-015-1557-y
summary:
  Our results show increasing close collaboration among scientists from the United States, several European countries including United Kingdom, Italy, France, Netherland, Switzerland, China and Australia with scientists from other parts of the world. The search for publications has been carried out with 240 search queries using combinations of keywords including ''''coordination, collaboration, cooperation, communication, preparedness, surveillance, emergency response, crisis management, containment, recovery, zoonotic, zoonosis, animal human, disease outbreak, illness outbreak, epidemic, pandemic and social network'''' occurring in the articles'' titles, abstracts and keywords. In the first period (1991) (1992) (1993) (1994) (1995) (1996) (1997) (1998) (1999) (2000) (2001) , the density of the network is very low (3.9 %) indicating that a limited number of all possible collaboration links among countries are realized (see Fig. 5a ).

abstract:
  At global and local levels, we are observing an increasing range and rate of disease outbreaks that show evidence of jumping from animals to humans, and from food to humans. Zoonotic infections (i.e. Hendra, swine flu, anthrax) affect animal health and can be deadly to humans. The increasing rate of outbreaks of infectious diseases transferring from animals to humans (i.e. zoonotic diseases) necessitates detailed understanding of the education, research and practice of animal health and its connection to human health. These emerging microbial threats underline the need to exploring the evolutionary dynamics of zoonotic research across public health and animal health. This study investigates the collaboration network of different countries engaged in conducting zoonotic research. We explore the dynamics of this network from 1980 to 2012 based on large scientific data developed from Scopus. In our analyses, we compare several properties of the network including density, clustering coefficient, giant component and centrality measures over time. We also map the network over different time intervals using VOSviewer. We analyzed 5182 publication records. We found United States and United Kingdom as the most collaborative countries working with 110 and 74 other countries in 1048 and 599 cases, respectively. Our results show increasing close collaboration among scientists from the United States, several European countries including United Kingdom, Italy, France, Netherland, Switzerland, China and Australia with scientists from other parts of the world.


id: cord-268822-o86zpu92
author: Anser, Muhammad Khalid
date: 2020-08-18
txt: ./txt/cord-268822-o86zpu92.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-268822-o86zpu92.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33014954/
doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2020.00398
summary:
  In a given scenario, the study focused on the following key variables: communicable diseases, healthcare expenditures, population density, poverty, economic growth, and COVID-19 dummy variable in a panel of 76 selected countries from 2010 through 2019. In a given scenario, the study focused on the following key variables: communicable diseases, healthcare expenditures, population density, poverty, economic growth, and COVID-19 dummy variable in a panel of 76 selected countries from 2010 through 2019. This study intended to explore the answers to the following critical questions: do communicable diseases, including COVID-19, exert a greater magnitude of stress in terms of negatively affecting countries economic growth which then converts into global depression? In a given context, the study prepared a set of research objectives to analyze global depression through some policy instruments, including healthcare expenditures, population density, and poverty incidence in a panel of 76 countries.

title:
  Communicable Diseases (Including COVID-19)—Induced Global Depression: Caused by Inadequate Healthcare Expenditures, Population Density, and Mass Panic

abstract:
  Coronavirus (COVID-19) is spreading at an enormous rate and has caused deaths beyond expectations due to a variety of reasons. These include: (i) inadequate healthcare spending causing, for instance, a shortage of protective equipment, testing swabs, masks, surgical gloves, gowns, etc.; (ii) a high population density that causes close physical contact among community members who reside in compact places, hence they are more likely to be exposed to communicable diseases, including coronavirus; and (iii) mass panic due to the fear of experiencing the loss of loved ones, lockdown, and shortage of food. In a given scenario, the study focused on the following key variables: communicable diseases, healthcare expenditures, population density, poverty, economic growth, and COVID-19 dummy variable in a panel of 76 selected countries from 2010 through 2019. The results show that the impact of communicable diseases on economic growth is positive because the infected countries get a reap of economic benefits from other countries in the form of healthcare technologies, knowledge transfers, cash transfers, international loans, aid, etc., to get rid of the diseases. However, the case is different with COVID-19 as it has seized the whole world together in a much shorter period of time and no other countries are able to help others in terms of funding loans, healthcare facilities, or technology transfers. Thus, the impact of COVID-19 in the given study is negatively impacting countries' economic growth that converts into a global depression. The high incidence of poverty and social closeness increases more vulnerable conditions that spread coronavirus across countries. The momentous increase in healthcare expenditures put a burden on countries' national healthcare bills that stretch the depression phase-out of the boundary. The forecasting relationship suggested the negative impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the global economy would last the next 10 years. Unified global healthcare policies, physical distancing, smart lockdowns, and meeting food challenges are largely required to combat the coronavirus pandemic and escape from global depression.


id: cord-270969-zb6ih5dl
title: Health and health-care systems in southeast Asia: diversity and transitions
author: Chongsuvivatwong, Virasakdi
date: 2011-01-25
txt: ./txt/cord-270969-zb6ih5dl.txt
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extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(10)61507-3
doi: 10.1016/s0140-6736(10)61507-3
summary:
  Southeast Asia is a region of enormous social, economic, and political diversity, both across and within countries, shaped by its history, geography, and position as a major crossroad of trade and the movement of goods and services. Rapid but inequitable socioeconomic development, coupled with differing rates of demographic and epidemiological transitions, have accentuated health disparities and posed great public health challenges for national health systems, particularly the control of emerging infectious diseases and the rise of non-communicable diseases within ageing populations. • The diversity of geography and history, including social, cultural, and economic diff erences, have contributed to highly divergent health status and health systems across and within countries of southeast Asia. Regional collaboration in standards of data collection and health systems analysis is hampered by WHO''s division of the ASEAN region into two areas under separate regional offi ces: the South-East Asia Regional Offi ce, encompassing Indonesia, Myanmar, and Thailand, and the Western Pacifi c Regional Offi ce, consisting of the remaining countries.

abstract:
  Southeast Asia is a region of enormous social, economic, and political diversity, both across and within countries, shaped by its history, geography, and position as a major crossroad of trade and the movement of goods and services. These factors have not only contributed to the disparate health status of the region's diverse populations, but also to the diverse nature of its health systems, which are at varying stages of evolution. Rapid but inequitable socioeconomic development, coupled with differing rates of demographic and epidemiological transitions, have accentuated health disparities and posed great public health challenges for national health systems, particularly the control of emerging infectious diseases and the rise of non-communicable diseases within ageing populations. While novel forms of health care are evolving in the region, such as corporatised public health-care systems (government owned, but operating according to corporate principles and with private-sector participation) and financing mechanisms to achieve universal coverage, there are key lessons for health reforms and decentralisation. New challenges have emerged with rising trade in health services, migration of the health workforce, and medical tourism. Juxtaposed between the emerging giant economies of China and India, countries of the region are attempting to forge a common regional identity, despite their diversity, to seek mutually acceptable and effective solutions to key regional health challenges. In this first paper in the Lancet Series on health in southeast Asia, we present an overview of key demographic and epidemiological changes in the region, explore challenges facing health systems, and draw attention to the potential for regional collaboration in health.


id: cord-271153-c0aw6jkz
title: Archetype analysis of older adult immunization decision-making and implementation in 34 countries
author: Privor-Dumm, Lois
date: 2020-05-27
txt: ./txt/cord-271153-c0aw6jkz.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-271153-c0aw6jkz.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32376108/
doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2020.04.027
summary:
  Considering common barriers and facilitators of decision-making and implementation of adult vaccines within a primary archetype could help provide a framework for strategies to support countries with similar needs and approaches. Considering common barriers and facilitators of decision-making and implementation of adult vaccines within a primary archetype could help provide a framework for strategies to support countries with similar needs and approaches. By characterizing groups of countries by features other than disease burden, geography or demographics, the analysis seeks to support global efforts to address country needs in strengthening processes for vaccine decision-making and implementation; facilitating sharing of best practices amongst countries with similar characteristics; and providing evidence, system or advocacy support to help countries succeed within their specific context. Domains (Table 1) were identified as part of a framework of potential barriers and facilitators for adult vaccine decisionmaking: country characteristics, adult vaccine/aging policies and decision-making, health immunization systems, uptake, and stakeholders and champions.

abstract:
  The global population of adults over 65 years of age is growing rapidly and is expected to double by 2050. Countries will face substantial health, economic and social burden deriving from vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs) such as influenza, pneumonia and herpes zoster in older adults. It will be essential that countries utilize several public health strategies, including immunization. Understanding the different approaches countries have taken on adult immunization could help provide future learnings and technical support for adult vaccines within life-course immunization strategies. In this study, we describe the priorities and approaches that underlie adult immunization decision-making and implementation processes in 32 high-and-middle-income countries and two territories (“34 countries”) who recommend adult vaccines in their national schedule. We conducted an archetype analysis based on a subset of two dozen indicators abstracted from a larger database. The analysis was based on a mixed-methods study, including results from 120 key informant interviews in six countries and a landscape review of secondary data from 34 countries. We found four distinct archetypes: disease prevention-focused; health security-focused; evolving adult focus; and, child-focused and cost-sensitive. The highest performing countries belonged to the disease prevention-focused and health security archetypes, although there was a range of performance within each archetype. Considering common barriers and facilitators of decision-making and implementation of adult vaccines within a primary archetype could help provide a framework for strategies to support countries with similar needs and approaches. It can also help in developing context-specific policies and guidance, including for countries prioritizing adult immunization programs in light of COVID-19. Further research may be beneficial to further refine archetypes and expand the understanding of what influences success within them. This can help advance policies and action that will improve vaccine access for older adults and build a stronger appreciation of the value of immunization amongst a variety of stakeholders.


id: cord-272998-jx4xpbjl
author: Alsan, Marcella
date: 2006-02-10
txt: ./txt/cord-272998-jx4xpbjl.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-272998-jx4xpbjl.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X06000027
doi: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2005.09.006
summary:
  This paper investigates the effect of population health on gross inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI). The Effect of Population Health on Foreign Direct Investment Inflows to Low-and Middle-Income Countries To investigate if health status of a population affects FDI inflows, we conduct a panel data analysis of 74 industrialized and developing countries over the period 1980-2000. The remainder of the paper is organized as follows: Section 2 presents stylized facts regarding FDI and its relationship to developing countries and human capital; Section 3 reviews empirical evidence and theoretical arguments for considering health as a form of human capital; Section 4 describes the theory of FDI inflows and the empirical model used in the analysis; Section 5 details the data used and our sources; Section 6 presents our empirical results; and Section 7 concludes. This paper provides empirical evidence that health is indeed a positive and statistically significant determinant of gross FDI inflows to low-and middle-income countries.

title:
  The effect of population health on foreign direct investment inflows to low- and middle-income countries

abstract:
  This paper investigates the effect of population health on gross inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI). We conduct a panel data analysis of 74 industrialized and developing countries over 1980–2000. Our main finding is that gross inflows of FDI are strongly and positively influenced by population health in low- and middle-income countries. Our estimates suggest that raising life expectancy by one year increases gross FDI inflows by 9%, after controlling for other relevant variables. These findings are consistent with the view that health is an integral component of human capital for developing countries.


id: cord-274548-yeucn13x
author: Altobelli, Emma
date: 2020-09-13
txt: ./txt/cord-274548-yeucn13x.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-274548-yeucn13x.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.3390/nu12092806
doi: 10.3390/nu12092806
summary:
  Full-text articles excluded, with reasons n = 48 type 1 diabetes registries n=14 paper without Studies included in qualitative synthesis (n = 18) (n = 9 EU-28 countries n = 9 outside EU-28 countries) The data covered the type of health system, presence or absence of a national diabetes plan (NDP), presence of a population-based register, care setting, methods for reimbursement of drugs, devices and coverage of any comorbidities associated with diabetes, and the prevalence of and mortality from diabetes, gathered from the institutional sites of individual European countries to investigate the presence of national data and policies for diabetes control. A multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) was carried out in order to to evaluate the possible association between the variables taken into consideration, including EUROSTAT data for the countries of the European Union, data relating to mortality per 100,000 inhabitants and the mortality trend [32] , the prevalence of diabetes [32] , the organization of the health system [35, 36, 38] , the presence of a national diabetes plan, the year of approval [35, 36] , the general practitioners and diabetic centers involved, and the cost percentage of diabetes of the total health expenditure [38] .

title:
  Lifestyle Risk Factors for Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and National Diabetes Care Systems in European Countries

abstract:
  Background. Diabetes is increasing by 3.09% per year in males and 1.92% in females. Lifestyle risk factors are related to diabetes. The aim of this work is to highlight within EU-28 countries the distribution percentages of some lifestyle risk factors and some components of diabetes health care. Methods. A literature search was conducted to highlight the presence of diabetes registries, which are fundamental tools for disease surveillance and health planning; the presence of a national diabetes plan (NDP); the care setting; and methods used for reimbursement of drugs, devices, and coverage of any comorbidities associated with diabetes. A multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) was carried out to evaluate the possible associations between the variables considered. Results. The highest percentages of diabetes (>10%) are registered in Bulgaria, Malta, and Hungary. Concerning the prevalence of overweight, no European country shows overall percentages of less than 50%. Regarding obesity, 57% of countries show prevalence rates of 25%. The record for physical inactivity belongs to Malta, with 45% of individuals being inactive. The percentage of physical inactivity for females is higher than for males across Europe. In total, 57% of the countries have an insurance-based health system, while 12 countries have public national health systems. Further, 57% of countries have an NDP, while 42% of the EU countries have established a prevalence register for diabetes. Conclusions. Prevalence rates for type 2 DM in the range of 8–9% are noted in 50% of EU-28 countries. In total, 21 out of EU countries show a high prevalence rate for overweight, while 7% of EU-28 countries have an obesity prevalence rate of 25%. Diabetes treatment is entrusted to general practitioners in most countries. The results of this work highlight the differences between countries, but also between genders.


id: cord-275071-2uiaruhg
title: Cross-Country Comparisons of Covid-19: Policy, Politics and the Price of Life
author: Balmford, Ben
date: 2020-08-04
txt: ./txt/cord-275071-2uiaruhg.txt
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mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32836862/
doi: 10.1007/s10640-020-00466-5
summary:
  Linking decisions over the timing of lockdown and consequent deaths to economic data, we reveal the costs that national governments were implicitly prepared to pay to protect their citizens as reflected in the economic activity foregone to save lives. Accepting that they are a conservative estimate of the total impact of the pandemic, officially attributed Covid-19 deaths are used to investigate the price of life implied by lockdown policies. However, as far as we are aware, ours is the first study to use the SEIR modelling framework to examine the effects of lockdown timing across multiple countries in the same study, and the first to combine these results with financial forecasts to obtain cross-country implied price of life estimates. Table 5 shows that for those countries which under-report Covid-19 deaths, implied price of life is substantially reduced, highlighting once again that earlier lockdowns would have increased social welfare tremendously.

abstract:
  Coronavirus has claimed the lives of over half a million people world-wide and this death toll continues to rise rapidly each day. In the absence of a vaccine, non-clinical preventative measures have been implemented as the principal means of limiting deaths. However, these measures have caused unprecedented disruption to daily lives and economic activity. Given this developing crisis, the potential for a second wave of infections and the near certainty of future pandemics, lessons need to be rapidly gleaned from the available data. We address the challenges of cross-country comparisons by allowing for differences in reporting and variation in underlying socio-economic conditions between countries. Our analyses show that, to date, differences in policy interventions have out-weighed socio-economic variation in explaining the range of death rates observed in the data. Our epidemiological models show that across 8 countries a further week long delay in imposing lockdown would likely have cost more than half a million lives. Furthermore, those countries which acted more promptly saved substantially more lives than those that delayed. Linking decisions over the timing of lockdown and consequent deaths to economic data, we reveal the costs that national governments were implicitly prepared to pay to protect their citizens as reflected in the economic activity foregone to save lives. These ‘price of life’ estimates vary enormously between countries, ranging from as low as around $100,000 (e.g. the UK, US and Italy) to in excess of $1million (e.g. Denmark, Germany, New Zealand and Korea). The lowest estimates are further reduced once we correct for under-reporting of Covid-19 deaths. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s10640-020-00466-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.


id: cord-275395-w2u7fq1g
title: Change in global transmission rates of COVID-19 through May 6 2020
author: Romero-Severson, Ethan Obie
date: 2020-08-06
txt: ./txt/cord-275395-w2u7fq1g.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-275395-w2u7fq1g.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0236776
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0236776
summary:
  In this report, we developed a deterministic-stochastic hybrid model and fitted the model to case incidence and death incidence time series data from 55 countries. We model the spread of COVID-19 as a partially observed Markov process with real-valued states S (susceptible), E (exposed), I (infected), and R (removed) to describe the latent population dynamics, and integer-valued states C 0 (to be counted), Y 1 (counted cases), D 0:3 (dying), and Y 2 (counted deaths) to model sampling into the data. Generally, countries that were found to have both variable transmission rates and variable detection probabilities (model 3 in Table 1) show a pattern of level or increasing deaths coupled with a level or slightly declining incidence in number of reported cases. The deaths due to COVID-19 in Europe are lower than the average number of reported deaths in a period of the same length for all countries in the data set that also had all-cause death counts from previous years.

abstract:
  We analyzed COVID-19 data through May 6th, 2020 using a partially observed Markov process. Our method uses a hybrid deterministic and stochastic formalism that allows for time variable transmission rates and detection probabilities. The model was fit using iterated particle filtering to case count and death count time series from 55 countries. We found evidence for a shrinking epidemic in 30 of the 55 examined countries. Of those 30 countries, 27 have significant evidence for subcritical transmission rates, although the decline in new cases is relatively slow compared to the initial growth rates. Generally, the transmission rates in Europe were lower than in the Americas and Asia. This suggests that global scale social distancing efforts to slow the spread of COVID-19 are effective although they need to be strengthened in many regions and maintained in others to avoid further resurgence of COVID-19. The slow decline also suggests alternative strategies to control the virus are needed before social distancing efforts are partially relaxed.


id: cord-280747-k0x6rjdi
title: Population Risk Factors for COVID-19 Mortality in 93 Countries
author: Hashim, Muhammad Jawad
date: 2020-09-17
txt: ./txt/cord-280747-k0x6rjdi.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-280747-k0x6rjdi.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.2991/jegh.k.200721.001
doi: 10.2991/jegh.k.200721.001
summary:
  Data on COVID-19 CMR in 93 countries was analyzed for associations with preexisting prevalence rates of eight diseases [asthma, lung cancer, Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD), Alzheimer''s Disease (AD), hypertension, ischemic heart disease, depression and diabetes], and six socio-demographic factors [Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, unemployment, age over 65 years, urbanization, population density, and socio-demographic index]. Bivariate analysis revealed that COVID-19 CMR were higher in countries that had high prevalence of population risk factors such as AD, lung cancer, asthma and COPD. From amongst the clinical risk factors, positive correlations with CMR included Alzheimer''s disease (r = 0.36), lung cancer (r = 0.39), and weakly with asthma (r = 0.28) and COPD (r = 0.27). With COVID-19 CMR per 100,000 population as the primary outcome (dependent) variable, multivariate modeling showed that certain risk factors were independent predictors (R 2 = 0.35, log likelihood ratio tests, p < 0.05).

abstract:
  Death rates due to COVID-19 pandemic vary considerably across regions and countries. Case Mortality Rates (CMR) per 100,000 population are more reliable than case-fatality rates per 100 test-positive cases, which are heavily dependent on the extent of viral case testing carried out in a country. We aimed to study the variations in CMR against population risk factors such as aging, underlying chronic diseases and social determinants such as poverty and overcrowding. Data on COVID-19 CMR in 93 countries was analyzed for associations with preexisting prevalence rates of eight diseases [asthma, lung cancer, Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD), Alzheimer’s Disease (AD), hypertension, ischemic heart disease, depression and diabetes], and six socio-demographic factors [Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, unemployment, age over 65 years, urbanization, population density, and socio-demographic index]. These data were analyzed in three steps: correlation analysis, bivariate comparison of countries, and multivariate modelling. Bivariate analysis revealed that COVID-19 CMR were higher in countries that had high prevalence of population risk factors such as AD, lung cancer, asthma and COPD. On multivariate modeling however, AD, COPD, depression and higher GDP predicted increased death rates. Comorbid illnesses such as AD and lung diseases may be more influential than aging alone.


id: cord-281330-x8e9cz8a
title: Analysing the behaviour of doubling rates in 8 major countries affected by COVID-19 virus
author: Mishra, Devanshu
date: 2020-08-14
txt: ./txt/cord-281330-x8e9cz8a.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-281330-x8e9cz8a.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/pii/S2212426820301238
doi: 10.1016/j.jobcr.2020.08.007
summary:
  This study''s prime target is to develop relationships between the variation in the doubling time of the number of cases of COVID-19 virus and various socio-economic factors responsible for them. Thus, in the long term, these countries may observe a slight increase in the doubling rates and show an exploding number of cases [7] [8] [9] [10] .The measures taken by the governing bodies are also an essential factor in coronavirus''s behaviour in countries. The improvement in doubling time of several cases also displays the significance of governing bodies and transparent data in controlling the virus''s extent. As seen in figure 5 , the starting 15 days of the coronavirus spread show no improvement in the doubling time mostly due to the government light response and the country held nationwide parliamentary elections on 21st February.

abstract:
  Abstract Background and aims Sars-CoV2 is a novel coronavirus that is transmitted to humans through zoonosis and characterised by mild to moderate pneumonia-like symptoms. The outbreak began in Wuhan, China, and has now spread on a global scale. Doubling time is the amount of period taken for a particular entity (that tends to grow over time) to double its size/value. This study's prime target is to develop relationships between the variation in the doubling time of the number of cases of COVID-19 virus and various socio-economic factors responsible for them. These frameworks focus on the relationships instead of relational data, so here in graph structures, we have generated different patterns of doubling rates and drawn the inferences. Methods Only significant countries affected by the COVID-19 virus are studied, and accordingly, collected datasets of growth of cases in the form of spreadsheets. The doubling rate is determined by calculating the doubling time for each day and then plotting these datasets in graphical form. Results The doubling time of various countries is vastly affected by the preventive measures taken and the lockdown implementation's success. Higher testing rates helped identify the hosts of the virus; thus, countries with mass testing have lower doubling rates. Countries, where the virus spread started earlier, had less time to prepare themselves, and they were in initial stages, the doubling time suffered. A sudden dip in doubling time is due to a large gathering of people or not effective lockdown; thus, people's attitude contributes to an essential role in affecting the doubling time. Conclusion The relationships between the spread of the virus and various factors such as dissimilarities in ethnic values, demographics, governing bodies, human resources, economy, and tourism of major countries are carried out to understand the differences in the virus's behaviour. This fast-moving pandemic has shown various defects and weaknesses in our healthcare systems, political organisations & economic stability and gives numerous lessons on how to enhance the ways that the global societies address similar epidemics. There is also a component that may share the same denominator is the necessity for requisite healthcare systems and medical staff. Still, the shortage of this component does not certainly mean that taking necessary steps would be ineffective. Transmission of COVID-19 to humans by zoonosis reveals that the global community is required to be observant concerning similar pandemics in the future.


id: cord-284201-2ofqm7a0
title: Review of Health Systems of the Middle East and North Africa Region
author: Mate, Kedar
date: 2017-12-31
txt: ./txt/cord-284201-2ofqm7a0.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-284201-2ofqm7a0.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B9780128036785003039
doi: 10.1016/b978-0-12-803678-5.00303-9
summary:
  MENA countries can be divided into three main groups that differ in terms of their economic and health outcomes achievements: (1) low-income countries (Yemen and Djibouti), which have the highest infant mortality rates and maternal mortality ratios in the region and are facing the greatest health-related challenges; (2) middle-income countries (Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia, and West Bank and Gaza), which have made significant progress in improving health outcomes although some of these countries continue to face rural/urban disparities in both health outcomes and gaps in health coverage; and (3) high-income countries of the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf (CCASG) (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates), which have achieved good health outcomes as a benefit of oil revenues used to achieve universal access to health services.

abstract:
  This article is an updated version of the previous edition article by Francisca Ayodeji Akala, volume 4, pp. 542–553, © 2008, Elsevier Inc.


id: cord-284810-fs5rx07q
title: Power-law distribution in the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases
author: Blasius, Bernd
date: 2020-09-17
txt: ./txt/cord-284810-fs5rx07q.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-284810-fs5rx07q.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33003939/
doi: 10.1063/5.0013031
summary:
  To test this hypothesis, we use empirical data 14 to compute the country-level distribution, P, of confirmed COVID-19 cases, n, at the end of March 2020 worldwide and find that it is closely approximated by a truncated power-law, 4, 38 Here, we provide a conceptual dual-scale model that explains the emergence of the power-law distribution by the "superposition" of two concurrent processes: large-scale spread of the virus between countries and small-scale snowballing of case numbers within each country. By combining real world data, modeling, and numerical simulations, we make the case that the distribution of epidemic prevalence, and possibly that of spreading processes in general, might follow universal rules. A straightforward calculation shows that the combination of the two exponential processes generically yields a truncated power-law distribution in the number of cases in countries: Consider an epidemic outbreak that started (the first case reported in a country) at time t = 0.

abstract:
  COVID-19 is an emerging respiratory infectious disease caused by the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. It was first reported on in early December 2019 in Wuhan, China and within three months spread as a pandemic around the whole globe. Here, we study macro-epidemiological patterns along the time course of the COVID-19 pandemic. We compute the distribution of confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths for countries worldwide and for counties in the US and show that both distributions follow a truncated power-law over five orders of magnitude. We are able to explain the origin of this scaling behavior as a dual-scale process: the large-scale spread of the virus between countries and the small-scale accumulation of case numbers within each country. Assuming exponential growth on both scales, the critical exponent of the power-law is determined by the ratio of large-scale to small-scale growth rates. We confirm this theory in numerical simulations in a simple meta-population model, describing the epidemic spread in a network of interconnected countries. Our theory gives a mechanistic explanation why most COVID-19 cases occurred within a few epicenters, at least in the initial phase of the outbreak. By combining real world data, modeling, and numerical simulations, we make the case that the distribution of epidemic prevalence might follow universal rules.


id: cord-288818-6uvb4qsk
title: Ethics, pandemic and environment; looking at the future of low middle income countries
author: Tanveer, Faouzia
date: 2020-10-15
txt: ./txt/cord-288818-6uvb4qsk.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-288818-6uvb4qsk.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33059674/
doi: 10.1186/s12939-020-01296-z
summary:
  From the restrictions on public freedom and burgeoning socio-economic impacts to the rationing of scarce medical resources, the spread of COVID-19 is an extraordinary ethical dilemma for resource constrained nations with less developed health and research systems. International regimes are on high alert to stop its spread, however, as far as the global scenario is concerned, countries and governments are clueless in stopping the expanding pandemic as not much is known about SARS-CoV-2, while left only with implementing nationwide lock downs and curfews which opened new economic fronts and social challenges. COVID-19 has presented itself as a test case for the humanity in terms of global fraternity, decision making, technology and expertise sharing, rapid pandemic response mechanisms, stability, crises management and policy making.

abstract:
  COVID-19 which started in Wuhan, China and swiftly expanded geographically worldwide, including to Low to Middle Income Countries (LMICs). This in turn raised numerous ethical concerns in preparedness, knowledge sharing, intellectual property rights, environmental health together with the serious constraints regarding readiness of health care systems in LMICs to respond to this enormous public health crisis. From the restrictions on public freedom and burgeoning socio-economic impacts to the rationing of scarce medical resources, the spread of COVID-19 is an extraordinary ethical dilemma for resource constrained nations with less developed health and research systems. In the current crisis, scientific knowledge and technology has an important role to play in effective response. Emergency preparedness is a shared responsibility of all countries with a moral obligation to support each other. This review discusses the ethical concerns regarding the national capacities and response strategies in LMICs to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic as well as the deep link between the environment and the increasing risk of pandemics.


id: cord-290930-438td98a
title: The Contribution of International Agencies to the Control of Communicable Diseases
author: Lazcano-Ponce, Eduardo
date: 2005-10-08
txt: ./txt/cord-290930-438td98a.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-290930-438td98a.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S018844090500278X
doi: 10.1016/j.arcmed.2005.07.002
summary:
  The principle strategies include: 1) implementation of mechanisms for international epidemiologic surveillance; 2) use of international law to support the control of communicable diseases; 3) international cooperation on health matters; 4) strategies to strengthen primary care services and health systems in general; 5) promotion of the transfer of resources for research and development from the North to the South. The WHO proposal for modernization of the International Health Regulation includes the following: 1) a mission with a stronger focus on control of infectious diseases, 2) emphasis on broader health care coverage and better access to treatment schemes, 3) global surveillance including data from official and non-official sources, 4) strengthening of national public health systems through the establishment of comparable productivity indicators and outcome measurements, 5) giving priority to the protection of human rights, 6) guidelines for good health governance defined as adoption of the principles of impartiality, objectivity and transparency (13).

abstract:
  Although inequality is often measured through three critical indicators—education, income and life expectancy—health-related differences are also essential elements for explaining levels of equality or inequality in modern societies. Investment and investigation in health also involve inequalities at the global level, and this includes insufficient North-South transfer of funds, technology and expertise in the health field, including the specific area of communicable diseases. Globally, epidemics and outbreaks in any geographic region can represent international public health emergencies, and this type of threat requires a global response. Therefore, given the need to strengthen the global capacity for dealing with threats of infectious diseases, a framework is needed for collaboration on alerting the world to epidemics and responding to public health emergencies. This is necessary to guarantee a high level of security against the dissemination of communicable diseases in an ever more globalized world. In response to these needs, international health agencies have put a number of strategies into practice in order to contribute to the control of communicable diseases in poor countries. The principle strategies include: 1) implementation of mechanisms for international epidemiologic surveillance; 2) use of international law to support the control of communicable diseases; 3) international cooperation on health matters; 4) strategies to strengthen primary care services and health systems in general; 5) promotion of the transfer of resources for research and development from the North to the South.


id: cord-291234-rozpps6v
author: Faye, C.
date: 2020-05-22
txt: ./txt/cord-291234-rozpps6v.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-291234-rozpps6v.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.17.20104687
doi: 10.1101/2020.05.17.20104687
summary:
  The method was applied to 60 countries (30 in Africa and 30 in other continents) and 6 variables which are: the Covid-19 situation on Monday 13 April 2020 (confirmed cases and reported deaths), the mean annual temperature and the structure of the proportion (0 to 14 years, 15 to 64 years and over 65 years). The opposing relationship between the Covid-19 pandemic (confirmed cases and reported deaths) and the proportion of elderly (and/or young) is apparent, suggesting that generally the younger a country''s population is (and therefore the fewer vulnerable people), the less likely it is to be affected by the Coronavirus pandemic, and vice versa. Axis 2, with 23.24% variance, is positively related, strongly with the number of confirmed Covid-19 cases, the number of reported deaths and the proportion of elderly in the total population, weakly with the average annual temperature of the country and the proportion of young people in the total population of the country.

title:
  A DISSYMMETRY IN THE FIGURES RELATED TO THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN THE WORLD: WHAT FACTORS EXPLAIN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE REST OF THE WORLD?

abstract:
  Humanity has experienced outbreaks for millennia, from epidemics limited to pandemics that have claimed many victims and changed the course of civilizations. The advent of vaccines has eradicated some of the serious pathogens and reduced many others. However, pandemics are still part of our modern world, as we continue to have pandemics as devastating as HIV and as alarming as severe acute respiratory syndrome, Ebola and the Middle East respiratory syndrome. The Covid-19 epidemic with 0-exponential contamination curves reaching 3 million confirmed cases should not have come as a surprise, nor should it have been the last pandemic in the world. In this article, we try to summarize the lost opportunities as well as the lessons learned, hoping that we can do better in the future. The objective of this study is to relate the situation of Covid-19 in African countries with those of the countries most affected by the pandemic. It also allows us to verify how, according to the observed situation, the African ecosystem seems to be much more resilient compared to that of other continents where the number of deaths is in the thousands. To verify this, the diagnosed morbidity and mortality reported for different states of the world are compared to the ages of life and the average annual temperature of these states. The results show that the less dramatic balance of the African continent compared to other continents is partly linked to the relatively high temperatures on the continent but also to the relatively young character of its population.


id: cord-293145-b1rxh4bd
author: Nouhjah, Sedigheh
date: 2020-05-19
txt: ./txt/cord-293145-b1rxh4bd.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-293145-b1rxh4bd.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsx.2020.05.012
doi: 10.1016/j.dsx.2020.05.012
summary:
  Challenges of diabetes care management in developing countries with a high incidence of COVID-19: a brief report Highlights • COVID-19 pandemic may be a potentially diabetogenic situation and may worsen hyperglycemia and possibly diabetes-related complications • Challenges faced by developing countries in managing diabetes during COVID-19 outbreak is different from those in developed countries. Results: Current challenges faced by clinicians in the management of diabetic patients in developing countries are as follows: lack of preventive measures, inadequate number of visits, loss of the traditional method of communication with the patient, shortage of medications, impaired routine diabetic care, and absence of telehealth services. Results: Current challenges faced by clinicians in the management of diabetic patients in developing countries are as follows: lack of preventive measures, inadequate number of visits, loss of the traditional method of communication with the patient, shortage of medications, impaired routine diabetic care, and absence of telehealth services.

title:
  Challenges of diabetes care management in developing countries with a high incidence of COVID-19: A brief report

abstract:
  BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Diabetes mellitus (DM) is one of the most critical risk factors for complications and death in COVID-19 patients. The present study aims to highlight challenges in the management of diabetic patients during the COVID-19 outbreak in developing countries. METHODS: We reviewed the literature to obtain information about diabetic care during the Covid-19 crisis. We also seek opinions of clinicians working in undeveloped countries. RESULTS: Current challenges faced by clinicians in the management of diabetic patients in developing countries are as follows: lack of preventive measures, inadequate number of visits, loss of the traditional method of communication with the patient, shortage of medications, impaired routine diabetic care, and absence of telehealth services. CONCLUSIONS: Developing countries are faced with many challenges in diabetes management due to a lack of resources.


id: cord-293599-ng002ydl
author: Marques, António Cardoso
date: 2020-08-29
url: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0954349X2030388X?v=s5
doi: 10.1016/j.strueco.2020.08.005
title:
  The impact of foreign direct investment on emission reduction targets: evidence from high- and middle-income countries

abstract:
  Besides bringing countries closer, the effects of globalization can help increase the production of goods and services, and foster economic growth. Foreign direct investment (FDI) is one of the processes of globalization. One aspect of globalization that has piqued the interest of economists, is the transfer of polluting industries between countries. A principal factor in this are discrepancies of environmental regulations, and these have also been instrumental in a failure to control pollution worldwide. With this impasse in mind, a Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag was applied to evaluate the impacts of FDI on the carbon dioxide emissions of 21 countries divided by income level, for a period from 2001 to 2017. This methodology allowed the analysis of the resulting dynamics of pollution into the short-run and long-run. The characteristics of efficiency, innovation, and regulation are crucial to better understand the consequences of flows in FDI. Regulation seems to increase pollution in high-income countries, which merits further discussion. FDI decreases emissions in high-income countries, while increasing them in the short-run in middle-income countries, which supports the Pollution Haven Hypothesis. Nonetheless, the capacity of middle-income countries to absorb technology is crucial for them to benefit in the long-run. Trade openness is also highly influenced by environmental regulation in middle-income countries. Since our aim is to understand the transfer of polluting industries, an analysis of emissions from the industrial sector provided a robustness check. It also revealed that policymakers do not seem to be paying sufficient attention to innovation and controlling the environmental degradation that this sector causes.


id: cord-294468-0v4grqa7
author: Kasilingam, Dharun
date: 2020-08-04
txt: ./txt/cord-294468-0v4grqa7.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-294468-0v4grqa7.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1111/tbed.13764
doi: 10.1111/tbed.13764
summary:
  This research uses exponential growth modelling studies to understand the spreading patterns of the COVID‐19 virus and identifies countries that have shown early signs of containment until 26(th) March 2020. Machine learning models based on logistic regression, decision tree, random forest, and support vector machines are developed and show accuracies between 76.2% to 92.9% to predict early signs of infection containment. The objective of the research is to develop a mathematical model using exponential growth analysis coupled with machine learning, to predict worldwide COVID-19 early containment signs. Secondly, the research aims at building supervised machine learning models with high accuracies for predicting signs of early containment with infrastructure availability, environmental factors, infection severity factors, and government policies of countries as independent variables. The research presents machine learning models based on variables such as infrastructure, environment, policies, and the infection itself, to predict early signs of containment in the country.

title:
  Exploring the Growth of COVID‐19 Cases using Exponential Modelling Across 42 Countries and Predicting Signs of Early Containment using Machine Learning

abstract:
  COVID‐19 pandemic disease spread by the SARS‐COV‐2 single‐strand structure RNA virus, belongs to the 7(th) generation of the coronavirus family. Following an unusual replication mechanism, it’s extreme ease of transmissivity has put many counties under lockdown. With uncertainty of developing a cure/vaccine for the infection in the near future, the onus currently lies on healthcare infrastructure, policies, government activities, and behaviour of the people to contain the virus. This research uses exponential growth modelling studies to understand the spreading patterns of the COVID‐19 virus and identifies countries that have shown early signs of containment until 26(th) March 2020. Predictive supervised machine learning models are built using infrastructure, environment, policies, and infection‐related independent variables to predict early containment. COVID‐19 infection data across 42 countries are used. Logistic regression results show a positive significant relationship between healthcare infrastructure and lockdown policies, and signs of early containment. Machine learning models based on logistic regression, decision tree, random forest, and support vector machines are developed and show accuracies between 76.2% to 92.9% to predict early signs of infection containment. Other policies and the decisions taken by countries to contain the infection are also discussed.


id: cord-296863-xu0h92ac
title: Bioethics, health, and inequality
author: Berlinguer, Giovanni
date: 2004-09-17
txt: ./txt/cord-296863-xu0h92ac.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-296863-xu0h92ac.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140673604170669
doi: 10.1016/s0140-6736(04)17066-9
abstract: nan
summary:
  The International Bioethics Committee (IBC) of UNESCO (United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization) recommended that "PGD be limited to medical indications. The convention includes articles on the rights of the patient, on equitable access to health care, on respect for private life, on non-discrimination on genetic grounds, on transplants, and on prohibition of financial gains "from the human body and his parts as such" (article 21). The main difficulty in practising moral principles concerning human dignity and equity in health is that in the past 15 years a singular ethics (and a singular policy) prevailed in the world, which resulted in overturning the health paradigms that had successfully guided public health and health services for one century. As far as ethics is concerned, the difference is that WHO does have a moral obligation towards people''s health, whereas the WTO, the IMF, and the World Bank do not.


id: cord-297940-xp8uoj9z
title: Spread of COVID-19: Investigation of universal features in real data
author: Das, S. K.
date: 2020-05-25
txt: ./txt/cord-297940-xp8uoj9z.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-297940-xp8uoj9z.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: http://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.05.20.20107797v1?rss=1
doi: 10.1101/2020.05.20.20107797
summary:
  We present results on the existence of various common patterns in the growth of the total number of patients affected by COVID-19, a disease acquired through infection by a novel coronavirus, in different countries. Outcome of our study, for COVID-19, via application of this model, suggests that in most of the countries, after the ''onset'' of spread, the growths are described by rapid exponential function, for significantly long periods. In addition to accurately identifying this superuniversal feature, we point out that the model is helpful in grouping countries into universality classes, based on the late time behavior, characterized by physical distancing practices, in a natural way. Outcome of our study, using real data [5], suggests that, for a large number of countries, the early time growth can be described by a prolonged "universal" exponential form, varying from country to country only via a metric factor.

abstract:
  We present results on the existence of various common patterns in the growth of the total number of patients affected by COVID-19, a disease acquired through infection by a novel coronavirus, in different countries. For this purpose we propose a scaling model that can have general applicability in the understanding of real data of epidemics. This is analogous to the finite-size scaling, a technique used in the literature of phase transition to identify universality classes. In the disease model, the size of a system is proportional to the volume of the population, within a geographical region, that have been infected at the death of the epidemic or are eventually going to be infected when an epidemic ends. Outcome of our study, for COVID-19, via application of this model, suggests that in most of the countries, after the `onset' of spread, the growths are described by rapid exponential function, for significantly long periods. In addition to accurately identifying this superuniversal feature, we point out that the model is helpful in grouping countries into universality classes, based on the late time behavior, characterized by physical distancing practices, in a natural way. This feature of the model can provide direct comparative understanding of the effectiveness of lockdown-like social measures adopted in different places.


id: cord-298003-6yvcl92q
title: Responding to COVID-19: What’s the Problem?
author: Lawrence, Roderick J.
date: 2020-06-05
url: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11524-020-00456-4
doi: 10.1007/s11524-020-00456-4
abstract:
  This commentary argues that the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 pandemic should be considered as a transdisciplinary societal challenge that requires coordinated systemic thinking and actions in the context of uncertainty. Responses to the propagation of the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 and the health, economic and social impacts of Covid-19 are complex, emergent and unpredictable. We describe the virtuous relations between three prerequisite conditions—multilevel governance, knowledge and types of resources and individual and collective behaviours—that should be combined in transdisciplinary responses.


id: cord-298052-mbg6e2j1
title: Livestock trade networks for guiding animal health surveillance
author: Hardstaff, Jo L
date: 2015-04-01
url: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12917-015-0354-4
doi: 10.1186/s12917-015-0354-4
abstract:
  BACKGROUND: Trade in live animals can contribute to the introduction of exotic diseases, the maintenance and spread endemic diseases. Annually millions of animals are moved across Europe for the purposes of breeding, fattening and slaughter. Data on the number of animals moved were obtained from the Directorate General Sanco (DG Sanco) for 2011. These were converted to livestock units to enable direct comparison across species and their movements were mapped, used to calculate the indegrees and outdegrees of 27 European countries and the density and transitivity of movements within Europe. This provided the opportunity to discuss surveillance of European livestock movement taking into account stopping points en-route. RESULTS: High density and transitivity of movement for registered equines, breeding and fattening cattle, breeding poultry and pigs for breeding, fattening and slaughter indicates that hazards have the potential to spread quickly within these populations. This is of concern to highly connected countries particularly those where imported animals constitute a large proportion of their national livestock populations, and have a high indegree. The transport of poultry (older than 72 hours) and unweaned animals would require more rest breaks than the movement of weaned animals, which may provide more opportunities for disease transmission. Transitivity is greatest for animals transported for breeding purposes with cattle, pigs and poultry having values of over 50%. CONCLUSIONS: This paper demonstrated that some species (pigs and poultry) are traded much more frequently and at a larger scale than species such as goats. Some countries are more vulnerable than others due to importing animals from many countries, having imported animals requiring rest-breaks and importing large proportions of their national herd or flock. Such knowledge about the vulnerability of different livestock systems related to trade movements can be used to inform the design of animal health surveillance systems to facilitate the trade in animals between European member states. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12917-015-0354-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.


id: cord-298870-22lf1cp5
title: Control Measures Used during Lymphogranuloma Venereum Outbreak, Europe
author: Timen, Aura
date: 2008-04-17
txt: ./txt/cord-298870-22lf1cp5.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-298870-22lf1cp5.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18394274/
doi: 10.3201/eid1404.061583
summary:
  The resurgence of LGV in Europe contained many features similar to an infectious disease emergency: it occurred unexpectedly; there was delay in the recognition of cases, which allowed the disease to spread within the risk group; and there was no preconceived outbreak control plan. The third section included 9 questions about the content of outbreak control measures (i.e., case identifi cation, case defi nitions, laboratory confi rmation, treatment, reporting, and interventions for health professionals and the groups at risk). Emerging Infectious Diseases • www.cdc.gov/eid • Vol. 14, No. 4, April 2008 However, in the management of LGV patients, differences were seen between countries with respect to case defi nitions, laboratory testing, and antimicrobial drug treatment. Because only 1 of these new European Union member countries completed the questionnaire, it was also impossible to assess how outbreak control measures were developed and implemented.

abstract:
  To assess the response to the reemergence of lymphogranuloma venereum, we conducted a cross-sectional survey by administering a structured questionnaire to representatives from 26 European countries. Responses were received from 18 countries. The ability to respond quickly and the measures used for outbreak detection and control varied. Evidence-based criteria were not consistently used to develop recommendations. We did not develop criteria to determine the effectiveness of the recommendations. The degree of preparedness for an unexpected outbreak, as well as the ability of countries to respond quickly to alerts, varied, which indicates weaknesses in the ability to control an outbreak. More guidance is needed to implement and evaluate control measures used during international outbreaks.


id: cord-299309-p703e396
author: Tan-Torres Edejer, Tessa
date: 2020-09-09
txt: ./txt/cord-299309-p703e396.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-299309-p703e396.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32918872/
doi: 10.1016/s2214-109x(20)30383-1
summary:
  title: Projected health-care resource needs for an effective response to COVID-19 in 73 low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study This study aimed to identify what the additional health-care costs of a strategic preparedness and response plan (SPRP) would be if current transmission levels are maintained in a status quo scenario, or under scenarios where transmission is increased or decreased by 50%. Evidence before this study Since Jan 30, 2020, when WHO labelled the COVID-19 pandemic a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, countries have tried to limit its spread, instituting measures on physical distancing and restrictions on movement. As of June 26, 2020, the costs of the full, nine-pillar response to COVID-19 in 73 low-income and middleincome countries after 4 weeks, on July 24, 2020, were projected to be approximately $52 billion, assuming that the Rt was unchanged and the status quo continued.

title:
  Projected health-care resource needs for an effective response to COVID-19 in 73 low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study

abstract:
  BACKGROUND: Since WHO declared the COVID-19 pandemic a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, more than 20 million cases have been reported, as of Aug 24, 2020. This study aimed to identify what the additional health-care costs of a strategic preparedness and response plan (SPRP) would be if current transmission levels are maintained in a status quo scenario, or under scenarios where transmission is increased or decreased by 50%. METHODS: The number of COVID-19 cases was projected for 73 low-income and middle-income countries for each of the three scenarios for both 4-week and 12-week timeframes, starting from June 26, 2020. An input-based approach was used to estimate the additional health-care costs associated with human resources, commodities, and capital inputs that would be accrued in implementing the SPRP. FINDINGS: The total cost estimate for the COVID-19 response in the status quo scenario was US$52·45 billion over 4 weeks, at $8·60 per capita. For the decreased or increased transmission scenarios, the totals were $33·08 billion and $61·92 billion, respectively. Costs would triple under the status quo and increased transmission scenarios at 12 weeks. The costs of the decreased transmission scenario over 12 weeks was equivalent to the cost of the status quo scenario at 4 weeks. By percentage of the overall cost, case management (54%), maintaining essential services (21%), rapid response and case investigation (14%), and infection prevention and control (9%) were the main cost drivers. INTERPRETATION: The sizeable costs of a COVID-19 response in the health sector will escalate, particularly if transmission increases. Instituting early and comprehensive measures to limit the further spread of the virus will conserve resources and sustain the response. FUNDING: WHO, and UK Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office.


id: cord-301082-sikgk58i
title: High-altitude populations need special considerations for COVID-19
author: Breevoort, Arnar
date: 2020-07-01
txt: ./txt/cord-301082-sikgk58i.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-301082-sikgk58i.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-17131-6
doi: 10.1038/s41467-020-17131-6
summary:
  We argue that high altitude human populations require special attention to access the international supply of ventilators. Yet, with altitude there is a progressive reduction in barometric pressure and subsequently in oxygen pressure leading to major physiological adaptations in the lungs 9 , which are not usually considered in ventilator quality tests. In these tests, the majority of commercial ventilators failed at high altitude, delivering tidal volumes with up to 40% error from the set volume 10 . Similarly, failure to contain the virus in Ethiopia, the second most populated country in Africa, would negatively affect the treatment efforts of the region. The further spread of COVID-19 can be halted under international collaboration and the understanding that success is dependent on the containment of COVID-19 in all countries, including economically challenged countries 15 .

abstract:
  The atmospheric pressure that decreases with altitude affects lung physiology. However, these changes in physiology are not usually considered in ventilator design and testing. We argue that high altitude human populations require special attention to access the international supply of ventilators.


id: cord-301479-dc1oyftd
title: Global Health: Chronic Diseases and Other Emergent Issues in Global Health
author: Koehlmoos, Tracey Pérez
date: 2011-09-30
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21896363/
doi: 10.1016/j.idc.2011.05.008
abstract:
  Infectious diseases have had a decisive and rapid impact on shaping and changing health policy. Noncommunicable diseases, while not garnering as much interest or importance over the past 20 years, have been affecting public health around the world in a steady and critical way, becoming the leading cause of death in developed and developing countries. This article discusses emergent issues in global health related to noncommunicable diseases and conditions, with focus on defining the unique epidemiologic features and relevant programmatic, health systems, and policy responses concerning noncommunicable chronic diseases, mental health, accidents and injuries, urbanization, climate change, and disaster preparedness.


id: cord-301570-yuuumno9
title: Clustering analysis of countries using the COVID-19 cases dataset
author: Zarikas, Vasilios
date: 2020-05-29
url: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dib.2020.105787
doi: 10.1016/j.dib.2020.105787
abstract:
  There is a worldwide effort of the research community to explore the medical, economic and sociologic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Many different disciplines try to find solutions and drive strategies to a great variety of different very crucial problems. The present study presents a novel analysis which results to clustering countries with respect to active cases, active cases per population and active cases per population and per area based on Johns Hopkins epidemiological data. The presented cluster results could be useful to a variety of different policy makers, such as physicians and managers of the health sector, economy/finance experts, politicians and even to sociologists. In addition, our work suggests a new specially designed clustering algorithm adapted to the request for comparison of the various COVID time-series of different countries.


id: cord-303165-ikepr2p2
title: Expanding the Concept of Public Health
author: Tulchinsky, Theodore H.
date: 2014-10-10
txt: ./txt/cord-303165-ikepr2p2.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-303165-ikepr2p2.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B9780124157668000021
doi: 10.1016/b978-0-12-415766-8.00002-1
summary:
  It also demands special attention through health promotion activities of all kinds at national and local societal levels to provide access for groups with special risks and needs to medical and community health care with the currently available and newly developing knowledge and technologies. 5. Environmental, biological, occupational, social, and economic factors that endanger health and human life, addressing: (a) physical and mental illness, diseases and infirmity, trauma and injuries (b) local and global sanitation and environmental ecology (c) healthful nutrition and food security including availability, quality, safety, access, and affordability of food products (d) disasters, natural and human-made, including war, terrorism, and genocide (e) population groups at special risk and with specific health needs. It acts to improve health and social welfare, and to reduce specific determinants of diseases and risk factors that adversely affect the health, well-being, and productive capacities of an individual or society, setting targets based on the size of the problem but also the feasibility of successful intervention, in a cost-effective way.

abstract:
  Ancient societies recognized the needs of sanitation, food safety, workers’ health, and medical care to protect against disease and to promote well-being and civic prosperity. New energies and knowledge since the eighteenth century produced landmark discoveries such as prevention of scurvy and vaccination against smallpox. The biological germ theory and competing miasma theory each proved effective in sanitation, and immunization in control of infectious diseases. Non-communicable diseases as the leading causes of mortality have responded to innovative preventive care of health risk factors, smoking, hypertension, obesity, physical inactivity, unhealthful diets, and diabetes mellitus. Health promotion proved effective to modern public health in tackling disease origins, individual behavior, and social and economic conditions. The global burden of infectious and non-communicable diseases, aging and chronic illness faces rising costs and still inadequate prevention. The evolution of concepts of public health will have to address these new challenges of population health.


id: cord-303414-fwamdr08
title: Human Mobility and COVID-19: A Negative Binomial Regression Analysis
author: Oztig, Lacin Idil
date: 2020-07-10
txt: ./txt/cord-303414-fwamdr08.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-303414-fwamdr08.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.puhe.2020.07.002
doi: 10.1016/j.puhe.2020.07.002
summary:
  Abstract Objectives This study aimed to examine the link between human mobility and the number of COVID-19 infected people in countries. In order to analyze the link between human mobility and COVID-19 infected people, our study focused on the volume of air travel, the number of airports and the Schengen system. Results Our findings suggest a positive relationship between higher volume of airline passenger traffic carried in a country and higher numbers of COVID-19 patients. 2 The global spread of COVID-19 that has led to the infection, and deaths, of thousands of people at a rapid scale, is indicative of how infectious diseases can become a global health problem that have the ability to reach more people, and at a faster rate, in an increasingly globalized world.

abstract:
  Abstract Objectives This study aimed to examine the link between human mobility and the number of COVID-19 infected people in countries. Study Design Our dataset covers 144 countries for which complete data are available. In order to analyze the link between human mobility and COVID-19 infected people, our study focused on the volume of air travel, the number of airports and the Schengen system. Methods In order to analyze the variation in COVID-19 infected people in countries, we used negative binomial regression analysis. Results Our findings suggest a positive relationship between higher volume of airline passenger traffic carried in a country and higher numbers of COVID-19 patients. We further found that countries which have a higher number of airports are associated with higher number of COVID-19 cases. Schengen countries, countries which have higher population density and higher percentage of elderly population are also found to be more likely to have more COVID-19 cases than other countries. Conclusions The paper brings a novel insight into the COVID-19 pandemic from a human mobility perspective. Future research should assess the impacts of the scale of sea/bus/car travel on the epidemic. The findings of this paper are relevant for public health authorities, community and health-service providers and policy-makers.


id: cord-308431-l4sv28hj
title: Covid-19, China and the future of global development
author: Schindler, Seth
date: 2020-08-04
url: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590051X20300095?v=s5
doi: 10.1016/j.resglo.2020.100020
abstract:
  Abstract Tensions between the United States and China have been escalating in recent years, and the Covid-19 pandemic has intensified their competition. If sustained, China's more effective public health response and economic restart will burnish its leadership credentials in the field of global development. This article lays out the origins and distinctive features of China's development policies and vision, and argues that in a post-Covid world these may constitute an appealing alternative to the US-led development paradigm for many developing countries. We contrast the universalism and rigidity of contemporary development orthodoxy with China's emphasis on bilateral and pragmatic forms of development cooperation borne out of its domestic experience. While Chinese development assistance and loans enhance its soft power, partner countries are offered significant autonomy and flexibility. We conclude by outlining three factors which may impact the future of Chinese leadership in the field of global development; a reconciliation of global financial governance and China's development lending, the outcome of the upcoming American presidential election and domestic discontent within China over the Belt and Road Initiative.


id: cord-311694-2b2swi0l
title: A Country Pandemic Risk Exposure Measurement Model
author: Grima, Simon
date: 2020-10-09
url: https://doi.org/10.2147/rmhp.s270553
doi: 10.2147/rmhp.s270553
abstract:
  PURPOSE: The purpose of this study is to develop a Pandemic Risk Exposure Measurement (PREM) model to determine the factors that affect a country’s prospective vulnerability to a pandemic risk exposure also considering the current COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: To develop the model, drew up an inventory of possible factor variables that might expose a country’s vulnerability to a pandemic such as COVID-19. This model was based on the analysis of existing literature and consultations with some experts and associations. To support the inventory of selected possible factor variables, we have conducted a survey with participants sampled from people working in a risk management environment carrying out a risk management function. The data were subjected to statistical analysis, specifically exploratory factor analysis and Cronbach Alpha to determine and group these factor variables and determine their reliability, respectively. This enabled the development of the PREM model. To eliminate possible bias, hierarchical regression analysis was carried out to examine the effect of the “Level of Experienced Hazard of the Participant (LEH)” considering also the “Level of Expertise and Knowledge about Risk and Risk Management (LEK)”. RESULTS: Exploratory factor analysis loaded best on four factors from 19 variables: Demographic Features, Country’s Activity Features, Economic Exposure and Societal Vulnerability (i.e. the PREM Model). This model explains 65.5% of the variance in the level of experienced hazard (LEH). Additionally, we determined that LEK explains only about 2% of the variance in LEH. CONCLUSION: The developed PREM model shows that monitoring of Demographic Features, Country’s Activity Features, Economic Exposure and Societal Vulnerability can help a country to identify the possible impact of pandemic risk exposure and develop policies, strategies, regulations, etc., to help a country strengthen its capacity to meet the economic, social and in turn healthcare demands due to pandemic hazards such as COVID-19.


id: cord-311807-o7d2yure
title: The Impact of Religiosity on Earnings Quality: International Evidence from the Banking Sector
author: Abdelsalam, Omneya
date: 2020-10-02
url: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0890838920300779?v=s5
doi: 10.1016/j.bar.2020.100957
abstract:
  We examine the impact of religiosity on earnings quality, utilising a global sample of 1,283 listed banks headquartered in 39 countries and covering the period 2002–2018. Using instrumental variables two-stage least squares regressions, we demonstrate that religiosity has a significant positive impact on banks’ earnings quality. We further show that the impact of religiosity becomes more pronounced among banks headquartered in countries where religion is an important element of national identity and in countries with weak legal protection. We show that the effects of religiosity are more intense during the global financial crisis period. Overall, these findings support the notion that high religiosity tends to reduce unethical activities by managers and can function as an alternative control mechanism for minimising agency costs. Our empirical investigation is robust to alternative model sample specification.


id: cord-312197-d5d8amk7
title: New Approaches to Preventing, Diagnosing, and Treating Neonatal Sepsis
author: Edmond, Karen
date: 2010-03-09
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20231868/
doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1000213
abstract:
  Karen Edmond and Anita Zaidi highlight new approaches that could reduce the burden of neonatal sepsis worldwide.


id: cord-313384-v4g6dq6p
title: Desirability Optimization Models to Create the Global Healthcare Competitiveness Index
author: Dönmez, Nergis Feride Kaplan
date: 2020-06-24
txt: ./txt/cord-313384-v4g6dq6p.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-313384-v4g6dq6p.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13369-020-04718-w
doi: 10.1007/s13369-020-04718-w
summary:
  The aim of this research is to enhance desirability optimization models to create a global healthcare competitiveness index (GHCI) covering 53 countries with gross domestic product per capita (GDP PC) of over $10,000. The optimum and feasible values of the factors considered influential on objective functions have been determined as the basis of healthcare expenditure (HE) and GHCI in those relevant countries. The problem statement which is an optimization model with the help of statistical analysis was developed to create GHCI to measure the structural and economic status of healthcare of considered countries in this research. Finally, after calculating GHCI optimization values not included in the flowchart, an index was created to list the healthcare systems of the countries considered in this study. The desirability equations obtained as a result of statistical analysis and the GHCI values belonging to the countries were calculated to construct the optimization models.

abstract:
  The aim of this research is to enhance desirability optimization models to create a global healthcare competitiveness index (GHCI) covering 53 countries with gross domestic product per capita (GDP PC) of over $10,000. The GHCI is defined as an index that reveals the progress and quality of the healthcare systems in countries providing their patients with easier access opportunities to healthcare services within the scope of this work. Methods of statistical analysis have been adopted together with optimization models and techniques in this research. The optimum and feasible values of the factors considered influential on objective functions have been determined as the basis of healthcare expenditure (HE) and GHCI in those relevant countries. Those released optimum outcomes are displayed between 0.64 and 0.66 in terms of desirability value. The GHCI values of those aforementioned countries range from 0 to 6. The computed average of the GHCI values of those countries is estimated as 2.4758. Finally, GHCI values of 53 countries have been calculated to set the current basis of desirability optimization models. These findings will be deemed as the basic essence of those prospective theories to be established for the future researches to constitute a new index to measure the competitiveness of healthcare systems in various countries all over the world.


id: cord-316050-mqrx003q
title: The influence of terrorism in tourism arrivals: A longitudinal approach in a Mediterranean country
author: Seabra, Claudia
date: 2020-01-31
txt: ./txt/cord-316050-mqrx003q.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-316050-mqrx003q.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2019.102811
doi: 10.1016/j.annals.2019.102811
summary:
  The main results show that terrorist attacks have a strong impact on tourist arrivals and confirm the existence of terrorism spillover, namely the substitution and generalization effects phenomena. The decline in tourists'' arrivals and receipts caused by terrorism is well documented in several countries and regions since the 90s and has affected countries like Spain (Enders & Sandler, 1991) , European countries ( (Enders, Sandler, & Parise, 1992; Radić, Dragičević, & Sotošek, 2018) , the Mediterranean region (Drakos & Kutan, 2003) , non-democratic countries and Africa (Blomberg, Hess, & Orphanides, 2004) , the USA (Bonham, Edmonds, & Mak, 2006; Goodrich, 2002) , Israel (Eckstein & Tsiddon, 2004; Fleisher & Buccola, 2002; Morag, 2006; Pizam & Fleischer, 2002) , Italy (Greenbaum & Hultquist, 2006) , Nepal (Baral, Baral, & Nigel, 2004) , Ireland (O''Connor, Stafford, & Gallagher, 2008) , Fiji and Kenya (Fletcher & Morakabati, 2008) , Nigeria (Adora, 2010) ; Turkey (Feridun, 2011; Ozsoy & Sahin, 2006) , Pakistan (Raza & Jawaid, 2013) , the Middle East (Bassil, 2014) , the Caribbean (Lutz & Lutz, 2018) , Tunisia (Lanouar & Goaied, 2019) , and worlwide (Liu & Pratt, 2017; Llorca-Vivero, 2008; Neumayer & Plümper, 2016) . Terrorism in Greece, Germany, and France positively affects tourist arrivals from America, while terrorist events occurred in Israel, Russia and Spain will have a negative effect on the number of American tourists who choose Portugal as their destination.

abstract:
  Abstract This longitudinal study examines the impact that terrorist attacks within a representative group of European countries can have on the tourism demand of a South European country with no record of terrorism attacks. In order to analyze the connections between terrorist attacks and tourists' arrivals, occurred between 2002 and the end of 2016, an Unrestricted Vector Autoregressive model was used for multivariate time series analysis. The main results show that terrorist attacks have a strong impact on tourist arrivals and confirm the existence of terrorism spillover, namely the substitution and generalization effects phenomena.


id: cord-316373-v48mz21d
title: Assessing the risk of spread of COVID-19 to the Asia Pacific region
author: Shearer, Freya
date: 2020-04-11
txt: ./txt/cord-316373-v48mz21d.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-316373-v48mz21d.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.09.20057257
doi: 10.1101/2020.04.09.20057257
summary:
  Analytical risk assessment is a valuable approach to guide decision-making on travel restrictions and border measures during the early phase of an outbreak, when transmission is primarily contained within a source country. However, with travel restrictions from mainland China to Australia imposed from February 1, our framework was designed to consider the importation risk from China into Australia via potential intermediary countries in the Asia Pacific region. While the detailed analysis presented here is specific to Australia and the South East Asia and Western Pacific regions during the early phase of COVID-19 emergence, the framework itself is adaptable to other contexts for future outbreak response. A framework was developed to assess the risk of COVID-19 infections being imported by passengers travelling on flights from the South East Asia and Western Pacific regions to Australia as of February 19, 2020.

abstract:
  During the early stages of an emerging disease outbreak, governments are required to make critical decisions on how to respond appropriately, despite limited data being available to inform these decisions. Analytical risk assessment is a valuable approach to guide decision-making on travel restrictions and border measures during the early phase of an outbreak, when transmission is primarily contained within a source country. Here we introduce a modular framework for estimating the importation risk of an emerging disease when the direct travel route is restricted and the risk stems from indirect importation via intermediary countries. This was the situation for Australia in February 2020. The framework was specifically developed to assess the importation risk of COVID-19 into Australia during the early stages of the outbreak from late January to mid-February 2020. The dominant importation risk to Australia at the time of analysis was directly from China, as the only country reporting uncontained transmission. However, with travel restrictions from mainland China to Australia imposed from February 1, our framework was designed to consider the importation risk from China into Australia via potential intermediary countries in the Asia Pacific region. The framework was successfully used to contribute to the evidence base for decisions on border measures and case definitions in the Australian context during the early phase of COVID-19 emergence and is adaptable to other contexts for future outbreak response.


id: cord-317184-vz829rsy
title: Patterns of the COVID19 epidemic spread around the world: exponential vs power laws
author: Wodarz, Dominik
date: 2020-04-01
url: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.30.20047274
doi: 10.1101/2020.03.30.20047274
abstract:
  We have analyzed the COVID19 epidemic data of more than 174 countries (excluding China) in the period between January 22 and March 28, 2020. We found that some countries (such as the US, the UK, and Canada) follow an exponential epidemic growth, while others (like Italy and several other European countries) show a power law like growth. At the same time, regardless of the best fitting law, most countries can be shown to follow a trajectory similar to that of Italy, but with varying degrees of delay. We found that countries with ``younger" epidemics tend to exhibit more exponential like behavior, while countries that are closer behind Italy tend to follow a power law growth. We hypothesize that there is a universal growth pattern of this infection that starts off as exponential and subsequently becomes more power law like. Although it cannot be excluded that this growth pattern is a consequence of social distancing measures, an alternative explanation is that it is an intrinsic epidemic growth law, dictated by a spatially distributed community structure, where the growth in individual highly mixed communities is exponential but the longer term, local geographical spread (in the absence of global mixing) results in a power-law. This is supported by computer simulations of a metapopulation model that gives rise to predictions about the growth dynamics that are consistent with correlations found in the epidemiological data. Therefore, seeing a deviation from straight exponential growth may not be a consequence of working non-pharmaceutical interventions (except for, perhaps, restricting the air travel). Instead, this is a normal course of raging infection spread. On the practical side, this cautions us against overly optimistic interpretations of the countries epidemic development and emphasizes the need to continue improving the compliance with social distancing behavior recommendations.


id: cord-317583-jhulvfev
title: Is happiness U-shaped everywhere? Age and subjective well-being in 145 countries
author: Blanchflower, David G.
date: 2020-09-09
txt: ./txt/cord-317583-jhulvfev.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-317583-jhulvfev.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32929308/
doi: 10.1007/s00148-020-00797-z
summary:
  Blanchflower and Oswald (2008a) find a U-shape for 39 developing countries in World Values Survey sweeps 1-4 4 that averages out at a minimum around age 43 when including control variables. I then turn to examining data for the UK and 36 European countries and find there is evidence of a U-shape whether controls are included or not, with very little difference in the age minima. Blanchflower and Graham examined the same data Ingelhardt used and estimated a series of happiness equations and found there were U-shapes in age with controls in all the countries and variables Ingelhardt examined. Fourteen of those countries have significant and well-defined U-shapes in age and they are not available in any of the other data files, so in Table 14 we report results for these developing countries using the Q1 question above for Cantril''s life satisfaction ladder measure.

abstract:
  A large empirical literature has debated the existence of a U-shaped happiness-age curve. This paper re-examines the relationship between various measures of well-being and age in 145 countries, including 109 developing countries, controlling for education and marital and labor force status, among others, on samples of individuals under the age of 70. The U-shape of the curve is forcefully confirmed, with an age minimum, or nadir, in midlife around age 50 in separate analyses for developing and advanced countries as well as for the continent of Africa. The happiness curve seems to be everywhere. While panel data are largely unavailable for this issue, and the findings using such data largely confirm the cross-section results, the paper discusses insights on why cohort effects do not drive the findings. I find the age of the minima has risen over time in Europe and the USA.


id: cord-318261-ndfzn1hh
title: Degradation and disease: Ecologically unequal exchanges cultivate emerging pandemics
author: Austin, Kelly F.
date: 2020-09-09
txt: ./txt/cord-318261-ndfzn1hh.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-318261-ndfzn1hh.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105163
doi: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105163
summary:
  New diseases like COVID-19 most often originate from biodiversity hotspots such as tropical rainforests, and forest loss represents one of the most significant forms of environmental degradation facilitating new human and animal interactions. A number of empirical studies of ecologically unequal exchange indeed find that the global organization of production facilitates greater resource degradation in poorer countries relative to rich countries, especially for outcomes such as deforestation and biodiversity loss, which have keen relevance to facilitating cross-species disease transmission (e.g. Burns, Kick, & Davis, 2003; Jorgenson et al., 2009; Shandra et al., 2009 ). Many of the studies utilizing ecologically unequal exchange perspectives find that some key agricultural products consumed in the Global North disproportionately drive peripheral deforestation and biodiversity loss, including beef, palm oil, coffee, and cocoa (e.g. Austin, 2010 Austin, , 2012 Bennett, Ravikumar, & Paltán, 2018; Noble, 2017; Shandra et al., 2009; Vijay, Pimm, Jenkins, & Smith, 2016) .

abstract:
  An estimated 75 percent of new infectious diseases are zoonotic in origin, directly resulting from human and animal interactions (CDC, 2017). New diseases like COVID-19 most often originate from biodiversity hotspots such as tropical rainforests, and forest loss represents one of the most significant forms of environmental degradation facilitating new human and animal interactions. A political-economy approach illuminates how trade inequalities lead to the exploitation of the environment and people in poor nations, creating conditions under which pandemics like COVID-19 appear. Cross-national patterns in deforestation and forest use illuminate how consumers in the Global North are keenly tied to the emergence of zoonotic diseases.


id: cord-319365-v75pvlka
title: Comparing working conditions and job satisfaction in hospitality workers across Europe
author: Navajas-Romero, Virginia
date: 2020-07-23
txt: ./txt/cord-319365-v75pvlka.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-319365-v75pvlka.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32834355/
doi: 10.1016/j.ijhm.2020.102631
summary:
  The research seeks: (i) to analyze the different models of working conditions-what likely leads to differences in perceived job satisfaction-that exist in Europe; and (ii) to explore whether these models differ among the clusters of countries based on institutional characteristics identified in the previous literature. From these objectives, the following research question is derived: Does the clustering of European countries according to institutional characteristics correctly reflect the differences in labor conditions and subsequently job satisfaction across Europe? The main objective of the empirical analysis is to determine whether the classification of countries based on the institutional context adequately reflects the different models of working conditions-and subsequently differing levels of job satisfaction-existing in Europe in the tourism sector, and if not, to propose a more appropriate classification of countries.

abstract:
  Job satisfaction is important in the tourism sector since workers’ satisfaction is key to providing high-quality service, which is very important in determining organizational success. The working conditions that influence job satisfaction depend to a large extent on the institutional context, which shows similarities in some European countries. This research aims to compare working conditions and job satisfaction among European country blocks that have similar institutional characteristics. Unlike previous studies, this research adopts a comprehensive approach by considering institutional and organizational factors in the analysis of employees’ perceptions of job satisfaction. The sample is made up of 1633 workers in 16 European countries. The results demonstrate the existence of three different models of working conditions in Europe leading to differing levels of job satisfaction in tourism. These models do not correspond to the clusters identified by the previous literature, which adopts an institutional perspective.


id: cord-319844-94587n2h
author: Nawaz, Muhammad Atif
date: 2020-09-30
txt: ./txt/cord-319844-94587n2h.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-319844-94587n2h.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-10920-y
doi: 10.1007/s11356-020-10920-y
summary:
  After analyzing with a dummy for the treated countries, it was confirmed that the outcome covariates: rescon (renewable energy sources consumption), population, FDI, CO(2), inflation, technical corporation grants, domestic credit to the private sector, and research and development are very significant in promoting green financing and climate change mitigation in the study countries. The probit regression results give a different outcome, as rescon, FID, CO(2), Human Development Index (HDI), and investment in the energy sector by the private sector that will likely have an impact on the green financing and climate change mitigation of the study countries. The findings show that FDI, R&D, technical corporation grants, CO 2 , POP, Human Development Index, renewable energy consumption, as the covariates, have significant outcome effects on green financing and climate change mitigation strategies for these countries.

title:
  Nexus between green finance and climate change mitigation in N-11 and BRICS countries: empirical estimation through difference in differences (DID) approach

abstract:
  Green finance is inextricably linked to investment risk, particularly in emerging and developing economies (EMDE). This study uses the difference in differences (DID) method to evaluate the mean causal effects of a treatment on an outcome of the determinants of scaling up green financing and climate change mitigation in the N-11 countries from 2005 to 2019. After analyzing with a dummy for the treated countries, it was confirmed that the outcome covariates: rescon (renewable energy sources consumption), population, FDI, CO(2), inflation, technical corporation grants, domestic credit to the private sector, and research and development are very significant in promoting green financing and climate change mitigation in the study countries. The probit regression results give a different outcome, as rescon, FID, CO(2), Human Development Index (HDI), and investment in the energy sector by the private sector that will likely have an impact on the green financing and climate change mitigation of the study countries. Furthermore, after matching the analysis through the nearest neighbor matching, kernel matching, and radius matching, it produced mixed results for both the treated and the untreated countries. Either group experienced an improvement in green financing and climate change mitigation or a decrease. Overall, the DID showed no significant difference among the countries.


id: cord-321194-xi4zy5ow
author: Allam, Zaheer
date: 2020-07-24
txt: ./txt/cord-321194-xi4zy5ow.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-321194-xi4zy5ow.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/pii/B9780128243138000036
doi: 10.1016/b978-0-12-824313-8.00003-6
summary:
  The build-up to this global pandemic announcement saw a national wide lockdown declared in Italy on 9th following an uncontrollable and astronomic increase in the number of new cases and deaths in the country (BBC, 2020c) . As the situation escalated, with over 1000 confirmed cases in the country, and over 31 deaths from the virus, the National Basketball Association (NBA), one of the most popular and fancied sporting activity in North America abruptly suspended its season, as of March 11, when a player of the Utah Jazz tested positive for coronavirus, just before their game with Oklahoma City began (Cacciola and Deb, 2020) . While a majority of countries, especially in Europe writhed in desperation from the impacts of COVID-19, China reported a third consecutive day with no local new case of coronavirus (The straits Times, 2020c).

title:
  The Third 50 Days: A Detailed Chronological Timeline and Extensive Review of Literature Documenting the COVID-19 Pandemic From Day 100 to Day 150

abstract:
  This chapter surveys the global unfolding of events during the third 50 days of the COVID-19 pandemic that originated from China. The third 50 days of the unfolding of the events showcased how city-wide lockdowns were started to be considered globally, the moving of the epicenter from China to Europe, and major industries being impacted worldwide. To document this, an extensive review of the literature provides a daily overview of the situation covering health, economic, political, and social perspectives and outlines key events during the unfolding of the pandemic. This chapter surveys, and establishes a chronological timeline of the outbreak from day 50 to day 100, covering issues appertaining to health policy and dwells into socioeconomic measures and impacts during the unfolding of the pandemic.


id: cord-322078-cli7mpev
author: Schaller, Karl
date: 2020-03-27
txt: ./txt/cord-322078-cli7mpev.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-322078-cli7mpev.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00701-020-04306-9
doi: 10.1007/s00701-020-04306-9
abstract: nan
summary:
  All together that will be put on a very big bill, once all will be over, and it will take a long time to reinstall confidence in our political leadership, in our idea of a Europe without limits in humanity, as a model for the world, and as THE place to be. There is a significant lack of doctors and of nursing staff, and in terms of access to ICU-beds with ventilators in some countries, whereas in others, the situation seems to be less precarious. Other countries on the other hand, were deprived of their medical staff due to more precarious general economic situations, with doctors and nurses following the westward stream toward politically more transparent and wealthier countries. We have to provide an example to show how to stand together, across all national borders, and with the optimism of pragmatic and generous people, who we should always strive to be.

title:
  Neurosurgeons in the Corona crisis: striving for remedy and redemption. A message from the president of the EANS


id: cord-322838-s82tyeis
title: National Smoking Rates Correlate Inversely with COVID-19 Mortality
author: Norden, M. J.
date: 2020-06-14
url: http://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.06.12.20129825v1?rss=1
doi: 10.1101/2020.06.12.20129825
abstract:
  ABSTRACT Introduction: Recent studies show cigarette smokers are markedly under-represented among patients hospitalized for COVID-19 in over a dozen countries. It is unclear if this may be related to confounding factors such as age distribution, access to care, and inaccurate records. We hypothesized that these concerns could be avoided by studying smoking prevalence in relation to COVID-19 mortality. Since climate has been identified as a factor in COVID-19, we studied groups of countries with relatively comparable temperatures. Methods: The 20 hottest and 20 coldest countries in the Johns Hopkins Mortality Analysis database with a minimum mortality rate of .3 deaths/100,000 were selected on the basis of the average temperatures of their largest city. Mortality rates were determined as of May 1, 2020 and correlated with national smoking rate adjusting for sex ratio, obesity, temperature, and elderly population. Results: A highly significant inverse correlation between current daily smoking prevalence and COVID-19 mortality rate was noted for the group of hot countries (R=-.718, p = .0002), cold countries (R=-.567, p=.0046), and the combined group (R=-.324, p=.0207). However, after adjustments only the regression for hot countries and the combined group remained significant. In hot countries, for each percentage point increase in smoking rate mortality decreased by .147 per 100,000 population (95% CI .102- 192, p=.0066). This resulted in mortality rates several-fold elevated in the countries with the lowest smoking rates relative to the highest smoking rates. In the combined group, mortality decreased by .257 per 100,000 population (95% CI .175-.339, p=.0034). Discussion: These findings add support to the finding of an inverse relationship between current smoking and seriously symptomatic COVID-19. However, we conclude that the difference in mortality between the highest and lowest smoking countries appears too large to be due primarily to the effects of smoking per se. A potentially beneficial effect of smoking is surprising, but compatible with a number of hypothetical mechanisms which deserve exploration: 1) Studies show smoking alters ACE2 expression which may affect COVID-19 infection or its progression to serious lung pathology. 2) Nicotine has anti-inflammatory activity and also appears to alter ACE2 expression. 3) Nitric oxide in cigarette smoke is known to be effective in treating pulmonary hypertension and has shown in vitro antiviral effects including against SARS-CoV-2. 4) Smoking has complicated effects on the immune system involving both up and down regulation, any of which might alone or in concert antagonize progression of COVID-19. 5) Smokers are exposed to hot vapors which may stimulate immunity in the respiratory tract by various heat-related mechanisms (e.g. heat shock proteins). Studies of steam and sauna treatments have shown efficacy in other viral respiratory conditions. At this time there is no clear evidence that smoking is protective against COVID-19, so the established recommendations to avoid smoking should be emphasized. The interaction of smoking and COVID-19 will only be reliably determined by carefully designed prospective study, and there is reason to believe that there are unknown confounds that may be spuriously suggesting a protective effect of smoking. However, the magnitude of the apparent inverse association of COVID-19 and smoking and its myriad clinical implications suggest the importance of further investigation.


id: cord-324923-29kudfjp
author: Sarma, U.
date: 2020-05-26
txt: ./txt/cord-324923-29kudfjp.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-324923-29kudfjp.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.20.20107169
doi: 10.1101/2020.05.20.20107169
summary:
  Our data driven modeling and analysis of the trajectories from multiple countries thus pave a way to understand the infection dynamics during and post lockdown phases in various countries and it can help strategize the testing and quarantine processes and influence the spread of the disease in future. By quantitatively calibrating the time series data(Data from WHO [1]) for confirmed, recovered and dead population for 23 different countries with various stages of infection, we made an estimate of different important parameters like incubation time, transmission rate, rate of quarantine, recovery and death rate, that controls the infection dynamics in a given country. Immediate early lock-down and rigorous testing coupled to systematic quarantining could be the most effective way to rapidly contain the second wave of infection and hence reduce the time of lockdown as well as size of infected population in a country.

title:
  Quantitative modeling and analysis show country-specific quarantine measures can circumvent COVID19 infection spread post lockdown

abstract:
  The outbreak of COVID19 has been declared a global pandemic by WHO which started in Wuhan last November and now has spread to more than 200 countries with 4.5 million cases and a death toll of more than 300 thousand. In response, many countries have implemented lock down to ensure social distancing and started rigorously quarantining the infected subjects. Here we utilized the infection dynamics available from WHO and quantitatively calibrated the confirmed, recovered, and dead populations from 23 different countries. The chosen countries chosen are in three stages of infection 1. Where the first wave of infection is significantly diminished 2. Infection peak is reached but daily infection still persists significantly 3. The infection peak is not yet reached. The model successfully captured the daily trajectories of countries with both early and late phase of infection and determined incubation time, transmission rate, quarantine and recovery rates. Our analysis shows, the reduction in the estimated reproduction number with time is significantly correlated to the testing rate and medical facility of a country. Further, our model identifies that an increase in quarantine rate through more testing could be the most potent strategy to substantially reduce the undetected infection, accelerate the time to infection peak and facilitate faster recovery of a nation from the first infection wave, which could perhaps have direct social and economic implications. Our model also shows, that post lockdown infection spread towards a much larger second wave can be controlled via rigorous increase in the quarantine rates which could be tailored in a country specific manner; for instance, our simulations suggest that USA or Spain would require a 10 fold more increase in quarantine rates compared to India to control the second wave post lockdown. Our data driven modeling and analysis of the trajectories from multiple countries thus pave a way to understand the infection dynamics during and post lockdown phases in various countries and it can help strategize the testing and quarantine processes and influence the spread of the disease in future.


id: cord-325034-oefmb10g
author: Alvarez, E.
date: 2020-08-21
url: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.08.18.20177261
doi: 10.1101/2020.08.18.20177261
title:
  Comparisons of COVID-19 dynamics in the different countries of the World using Time-Series clustering

abstract:
  In recent months, the world has suffered from the appearance of a new strain of coronavirus, causing the COVID-19 pandemic. There are great scientific efforts to find new treatments and vaccines, at the same time that governments, companies, and individuals have taken a series of actions in response to this pandemic. These efforts seek to decrease the speed of propagation, although with significant social and economic costs. Countries have taken different actions, also with different results. In this article we use non-parametric techniques (HT and MST) with the aim of identifying groups of countries with a similar spread of the coronavirus. The variable of interest is the number of daily infections per country. Results show that there are groups of countries with differentiated contagion dynamics, both in the number of contagions plus at the time of the greatest transmission of the disease. It is concluded that the actions taken by the countries, the speed at which they were taken and the number of tests carried out may explain part of the differences in the dynamics of contagion.


id: cord-325177-7fzbbn99
author: Nagano, Hitoshi
date: 2020-04-30
url: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.104953
doi: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.104953
title:
  The ‘Heart Kuznets Curve’? Understanding the relations between economic development and cardiac conditions

abstract:
  As countries turn wealthier, some health indicators, such as child mortality, seem to have well-defined trends. However, others, including cardiovascular conditions, do not follow clear linear patterns of change with economic development. Abnormal blood pressure is a serious health risk factor with consequences for population growth and longevity as well as public and private expenditure in health care and labor productivity. This also increases the risk of the population in certain pandemics, such as COVID-19. To determine the correlation of income and blood pressure, we analyzed time-series for the mean systolic blood pressure (SBP) of men’s population (mmHg) and nominal Gross Domestic Product per capita (GDPPC) for 136 countries from 1980 to 2008 using regression and statistical analysis by Pearson’s correlation (r). Our study finds a trend similar to an inverted-U shaped curve, or a ‘Heart Kuznets Curve’. There is a positive correlation (increase GDPPC, increase SBP) in low-income countries, and a negative correlation in high-income countries (increase GDPPC, decrease SBP). As country income rises people tend to change their diets and habits and have better access to health services and education, which affects blood pressure. However, the latter two may not offset the rise in blood pressure until countries reach a certain income. Investing early in health education and preventive health care could avoid the sharp increase in blood pressure as countries develop, and therefore, avoiding the ‘Heart Kuznets Curve’ and its economic and human impacts.


id: cord-326509-1cpybatu
title: Socioeconomic determinants of COVID‐19 in Asian countries: An empirical analysis
author: Varkey, Rittu S.
date: 2020-10-23
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33173444/
doi: 10.1002/pa.2532
abstract:
  The spread of coronavirus disease, 2019, has affected several countries in the world including Asian countries. The occurrences of COVID infections are uneven across countries and the same is determined by socioeconomic situations prevailing in the countries besides the preparedness and management. The paper is an attempt to empirically examine the socioeconomic determinants of the occurrence of COVID in Asian countries considering the data as of June 18, 2020, for 42 Asian countries. A multiple regression analysis in a cross‐sectional framework is specified and ordinary least square (OLS) technique with heteroscedasticity corrected robust standard error is employed to obtain regression coefficients. Explanatory variables that are highly collinear have been dropped from the analysis. The findings of the study show a positive significant association of per capita gross national income and net migration with the incidence of total COVID‐19 cases and daily new cases. The size of net migration emerged to be a potential factor and positive in determining the total and new cases of COVID. Social capital as measured by voters' turnout ratio (VTR) in order to indicate the people's participation is found to be significant and negative for daily new cases per million population. People's participation has played a very important role in checking the incidence of COVID cases and its spread. In alternate models, countries having high incidence of poverty are also having higher cases of COVID. Though the countries having higher percentage of aged populations are more prone to be affected by the spread of virus, but the sign of the coefficient of this variable for Asian country is not in the expected line. Previous year health expenditure and diabetic prevalence rate are not significant in the analysis. Therefore, people‐centric plan and making people more participatory and responsive in adhering to the social distancing norms in public and workplace and adopting preventive measures need to be focused on COVID management strategies. The countries having larger net migration and poverty ratio need to evolve comprehensive and inclusive strategies for testing, tracing, and massive awareness for sanitary practices, social distancing, and following government regulation for management of COVID‐19, besides appropriate food security measures and free provision of sanitary kits for vulnerable section.


id: cord-326618-0ci9irxl
title: COVID-19 Outbreak, Mitigation, and Governance in High Prevalent Countries
author: Chien, Lung-Chang
date: 2020-09-17
url: https://doi.org/10.5334/aogh.3011
doi: 10.5334/aogh.3011
abstract:
  BACKGROUND: Disease control involves multiple actions overtime to halt the spread of COVID-19. The role of a country’s governance in slowing the spread of COVID-19 has not yet been well investigated. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to investigate the association between governance and the trend of COVID-19 incidence in countries with the highest prevalence. We hypothesized that countries with better governance are more likely to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 than countries with worse governance. METHODS: We analyzed 62 most prevalent countries with at least 10,000 accumulative confirmed cases from January 22 to June 15, 2020. Countries were further grouped into three different levels of governance (25 better governance, 24 fair governance, and 13 worse governance), identified outbreak and mitigation periods using the joinpoint regression model, and compared the number of days and average daily percent change in incidence in two periods by governance level using the one-way analysis of variance. FINDINGS: The average outbreak period in the 62 countries lasted 84.0 days. Sixty percent of countries (N = 37) had experienced outbreak periods, followed by a mitigation period. In contrast, the rest forty percent of countries (N = 25) still had a rising trend. In the outbreak period, better governance countries had a more rapid increase but a shorter outbreak period (71.2 days) than countries with fair (93.5 days) and worse (90.8 days) governance. Most countries with better governance (84.0%) revealed a declining trend in COVID-19 incidence, while such a trend was less than half of fair and worse governance countries (38.5%–41.7%). CONCLUSIONS: Countries with better governance are more resilient during the COVID-19 crisis. While the mitigation of COVID-19 is observed in most better governance countries, the incidence of COVID-19 is still surging in most fair and worse governance countries, and the possibility of a recurring epidemic of COVID-19 in countries cannot be ignored.


id: cord-326861-qooax2xc
title: Rhythmic components of COVID-19 daily cases in various countries
author: Drozdov, A. V.
date: 2020-07-24
txt: ./txt/cord-326861-qooax2xc.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-326861-qooax2xc.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.23.20161240
doi: 10.1101/2020.07.23.20161240
summary:
  The scope of this study consisted in assessment of COVID-19 daily case increment dynamics in various countries in order to identify rhythmic components. . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.23.20161240 doi: medRxiv preprint Figure 1 shows the global dynamics of COVID-19 daily case increment and the results of the time series analysis using three approaches: periodogram ( fig. Since the beginning of the review interval falls on 1 March (Sunday) and the source data reflect incidence increment reported for the previous 24 hours, the first two points on the X-line correspond to weekend days in figure 3 distribution As follows from figure 2, phasal dips and peaks occur on different days of the weekly period depending on the country. . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.23.20161240 doi: medRxiv preprint As follows from figure 3, the pandemic spread phases almost coincide in these two countries. 4. In the incidence dynamics of some countries consistent and statistically significant periods other than weekly have been recorded, i.e. 6, 8 or 10 days.

abstract:
  Not only does COVID-19 pandemic encourage scientists to look for remedies and treatment schemes, but also identify the drivers of pathogenicity and spread of the virus. The scope of this research consisted in identifying recurrence patterns and comparing the number of daily cases between various countries. Data for countries where at least 500 daily cases were recorded at least once (17 in Europe, 3 in North America, 7 in South America, 3 in Central America, 17 in Asia and 3 in Africa). According to our evaluation, the dynamics recorded for 25 countries includes a 7-day statistically significant component. This statistically significant weekly component has been identified in 76% of the countries examined in Europe, 66% in North America, 71% in South America, and 18% in Asia. The range of this rhythmic component is low at the growth stage and increases at the stabilization and decrease stages. The weekly phases feature shifting peaks depending on the country. In some cases, the phases shift, i.e. they are not limited strictly to certain days of the week. Due to range and phase variation, its explanation cannot be limited to strictly medical and social factors. In some cases, national incidence dynamics includes 3, 4, 6, 8 and 10-day periods. Understanding the factors of recurrence patterns in COVID-19 incidence dynamics may help in the pandemic response.


id: cord-327865-xxov2x33
title: Safe Sanitation in Low Economic Development Areas
author: Cisneros, B.J.
date: 2011-01-24
txt: ./txt/cord-327865-xxov2x33.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-327865-xxov2x33.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/pii/B9780444531995000828
doi: 10.1016/b978-0-444-53199-5.00082-8
summary:
  As part of the text and to face the requirements for poor rural and urban areas and water-scarce regions, basic sanitation, wastewater treatment, and water reuse alternatives are described with emphasis on their constraints and limitations for developing countries. In addition, in the developed countries, the term sanitation applies not only to the installation of sewers but also to the full implementation of systems for the safe disposal and reuse of treated wastewater, sludge, and septage. In addition, they offer the following benefits (Lenghton et al., 2005; Correlje and Schuetze, 2008) : (1) they allow investments to be made stepwise, in line with available funds, local development, and population growth; (2) they are used in smaller areas of service that are easier to manage; (3) they allow the use of different technologies to provide services to different socioeconomic groups; and (4) they facilitate the reuse of water on-site.

abstract:
  This chapter presents the advances in sanitation for developing countries as well as the needs in terms of goals, standards, technology, and policy. To understand why a special chapter for low-income areas is needed, it describes the main types of pollutants, their origins, and treatment options. As part of the text and to face the requirements for poor rural and urban areas and water-scarce regions, basic sanitation, wastewater treatment, and water reuse alternatives are described with emphasis on their constraints and limitations for developing countries. Some aspects concerning the development of policies, costs, and funding to fulfill the Millennium Development Goals are also included. The importance of developing innovative solutions that can be sustainable, affordable, and progressively implemented is discussed.


id: cord-331601-3w4c40qr
title: The COVID-19 Pandemic and the Pathology of the Economic and Political Architecture in Cameroon
author: Ojong, Nathanael
date: 2020-06-17
txt: ./txt/cord-331601-3w4c40qr.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-331601-3w4c40qr.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.3390/healthcare8020176
doi: 10.3390/healthcare8020176
summary:
  The current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic started in December 2019 [1] , and on 31 December 2019, China informed the World Health Organisation (WHO) of numerous cases of pneumonia of unknown cause in Wuhan, a city of 11 million inhabitants [2] . That said, the goal of this review is to provide a deeper understanding of the factors that have contributed to weakening Cameroon''s health sector over the years and to shed light on socio-economic and political factors that are currently restricting an effective response to the pandemic in the country. An independent local news agency in the country reported that some public health institutions in Douala required COVID-19 patients to cover their health care costs. Using Cameroon as a case study, I have examined the economic, political, and social forces that negatively affect the fight against COVID-19, and argue that the country''s weak health care system makes it challenging to tackle the disease there as well as in other countries.

abstract:
  This article examines the factors restricting an effective response to the COVID-19 pandemic in Cameroon. It argues that structural adjustment policies in the 1980s and 1990s as well as corruption and limited investment in recent times have severely weakened the country’s health system. This article also emphasises the interconnection between poverty, slums, and COVID-19. This interconnection brings to the fore inequality in Cameroon. Arguably, this inequality could facilitate the spread of COVID-19 in the country. This article draws attention to the political forces shaping the response to the pandemic and contends that in some regions in the country, the lack of an effective response to the pandemic may not necessarily be due to a lack of resources. In so doing, it critiques the COVID-19 orthodoxy that focuses exclusively on the pathology of the disease and advocates “technical” solutions to the pandemic, while ignoring the political and socio-economic forces that shape the fight against the pandemic. At times, medical supplies and other forms of assistance may be available, but structural violence impairs access to these resources. Politics must be brought into the COVID-19 discourse, as it shapes the response to the pandemic.


id: cord-332412-lrn0wpvj
title: Variational-LSTM Autoencoder to forecast the spread of coronavirus across the globe
author: Ibrahim, Mohamed R.
date: 2020-04-24
url: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.20.20070938
doi: 10.1101/2020.04.20.20070938
abstract:
  Modelling the spread of coronavirus globally while learning trends at global and country levels remains crucial for tackling the pandemic. We introduce a novel variational LSTM-Autoencoder model to predict the spread of coronavirus for each country across the globe. This deep spatio-temporal model does not only rely on historical data of the virus spread but also includes factors related to urban characteristics represented in locational and demographic data (such as population density, urban population, and fertility rate), an index that represent the governmental measures and response amid toward mitigating the outbreak (includes 13 measures such as: 1) school closing, 2) workplace closing, 3) cancelling public events, 4) close public transport, 5) public information campaigns, 6) restrictions on internal movements, 7) international travel controls, 8) fiscal measures, 9) monetary measures, 10) emergency investment in health care, 11) investment in vaccines, 12) virus testing framework, and 13) contact tracing). In addition, the introduced method learns to generate graph to adjust the spatial dependences among different countries while forecasting the spread. We trained two models for short and long-term forecasts. The first one is trained to output one step in future with three previous timestamps of all features across the globe, whereas the second model is trained to output 10 steps in future. Overall, the trained models show high validation for forecasting the spread for each country for short and long-term forecasts, which makes the introduce method a useful tool to assist decision and policymaking for the different corners of the globe.


id: cord-333919-nrd9ajj2
author: Albi, G.
date: 2020-05-16
url: http://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.05.12.20099721v1?rss=1
doi: 10.1101/2020.05.12.20099721
title:
  Relaxing lockdown measures in epidemic outbreaks using selective socio-economic containment with uncertainty

abstract:
  After an initial phase characterized by the introduction of timely and drastic containment measures aimed at stopping the epidemic contagion from SARS-CoV2, many governments are preparing to relax such measures in the face of a severe economic crisis caused by lockdowns. Assessing the impact of such openings in relation to the risk of a resumption of the spread of the disease is an extremely difficult problem due to the many unknowns concerning the actual number of people infected, the actual reproduction number and infection fatality rate of the disease. In this work, starting from a compartmental model with a social structure, we derive models with multiple feedback controls depending on the social activities that allow to assess the impact of a selective relaxation of the containment measures in the presence of uncertain data. Specific contact patterns in the home, work, school and other locations for all countries considered have been used. Results from different scenarios in some of the major countries where the epidemic is ongoing, including Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States, are presented and discussed.


id: cord-337275-phgfpzbt
title: Is Spread of COVID-19 a Chaotic Epidemic?
author: Andrew, Jones
date: 2020-10-20
url: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110376
doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110376
abstract:
  The COVID-19 epidemic challenges humanity in 2020. It has already taken an enormous number of human lives and had a substantial negative economic impact. Traditional compartmental epidemiological models demonstrated limited ability to predict the scale and dynamics of COVID-19 epidemic in different countries. In order to gain a deeper understanding of its behavior, we turn to chaotic dynamics, which proved fruitful in analyzing previous diseases such as measles. We hypothesize that the unpredictability of the pandemic could be a fundamental property if the disease spread is a chaotic dynamical system. Our mathematical examination of COVID-19 epidemic data in different countries reveals similarity of this dynamic to the chaotic behavior of many dynamics systems, such as logistic maps. We conclude that the data does suggest that the COVID-19 epidemic demonstrates chaotic behavior, which should be taken into account by public policy makers. Furthermore, the scale and behavior of the epidemic may be essentially unpredictable due to the properties of chaotic systems, rather than due to the limited data available for model parameterization.


id: cord-337730-mqcgqwrb
author: Leroy, Gregoire
date: 2020-08-20
url: https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/pii/S2211912420300742
doi: 10.1016/j.gfs.2020.100420
title:
  Food securers or invasive aliens? Trends and consequences of non-native livestock introgression in developing countries

abstract:
  Importation of livestock genetic resources from industrialized countries for introgression of specific traits and other forms of crossbreeding is often indicative of a shift in production systems toward greater intensification and specialization. In developing countries, imported genetic resources are regarded as both a solution to improve the performance of local livestock and as one of the main threats to local populations. Using international databases, censuses and technical reports, we investigate ongoing trends and consequences of these two phenomena in 40 countries from Africa, Asia and Latin America. In these countries, the share of locally adapted breeds within species has decreased by an average of 0.76% per year over the last 20 years. The corresponding increase has been distributed between pure exotic breeds and crossbred animals, with differences across regions. In several countries, increased utilization of exotic cattle breeds and crossbreeding has been accompanied by a trend in increased milk yield per cow. The shift from local genetic resources to crossbred and exotic animals must be considered in the context of challenges such as food security, erosion of agrobiodiversity, interactions with other agricultural production, reduction of poverty and provision of ecosystem services, as well as resilience to and mitigation of climate change.


id: cord-338143-2v4lrlcl
author: Pana, T. A.
date: 2020-05-16
url: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.13.20100677
doi: 10.1101/2020.05.13.20100677
title:
  Number of International Arrivals Predicts Severity of the first Global Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic

abstract:
  Background: Reported death rates from different countries during the COVID-19 pandemic vary. Lack of universal testing and death underreporting make between-country comparisons difficult. The country-level determinants of COVID-19 mortality are unknown. Objective: Derive a measure of COVID-related death rates that is comparable across countries and identify its country-level predictors. Methods: An ecological study design of publicly available data was employed. Countries reporting >25 COVID-related deaths until May 1, 2020 were included. The outcome was the mean mortality rate from COVID-19, an estimate of the country-level daily increase in reported deaths during the ascending phase of the epidemic curve. Potential predictors assessed were most recently published Demographic parameters (population and population density, percentage population living in urban areas, median age, average body mass index, smoking prevalence), Economic parameters (Gross Domestic Product per capita; environmental parameters: pollution levels, mean temperature (January-April)), co-morbidities (prevalence of diabetes, hypertension and cancer), health systems parameters (WHO Health Index and hospital beds per 10,000 population and international arrivals). Multivariable linear regression was used to analyse the data. Results: Thirty-one countries were included. Of all country-level predictors included in the multivariable model, only total number of international arrivals was significantly associated with the mean death rate: Beta 0.3798 (95% Confidence Interval 0.2414, 0.5182), P <0.001. Conclusion: International travel was directly associated with the mortality slope and thus potentially the spread of COVID-19. Stopping international travel, particularly from affected areas, may be the most effective strategy to control COVID outbreak and prevent related deaths.


id: cord-339360-vm4yy47i
title: DYNAMICS OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMICS: GLOBAL PATTERN AND BETWEEN COUNTRIES VARIATIONS
author: Krywyk, J.
date: 2020-07-26
url: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.20.20155390
doi: 10.1101/2020.07.20.20155390
abstract:
  The COVID-19 pandemic affected 203 countries between December 2019 and July 2020. The early epidemic "wave" affected countries which now report a few sporadic cases, achieving a stable late phase of the epidemic. Other countries are beginning their epidemic expansion phase. The objective of our study is to characterize the dynamics of the COVID-19 spread. Data science methods were applied to pandemic, focusing on the daily fatality in 24 countries with more than 2,000 deaths, our analysis kin the end retaining 14 countries that have completed a full cycle. The analysis demonstrates a COVID-19 dynamic similar in these studied countries. This 3-phase dynamic is like that of common viral respiratory infections. This pattern, however, shows variability and therefore specificity which the method categorizes into clusters of "differentiated epidemic patterns". Among the 5 detected clusters, 2 main ones regroup 11 of these countries, representing 65% of the world deaths (as of June 24, 2020). The pattern seems common to a very large number of countries, and congruent with that of epidemics of other respiratory syndromes, opens the hypothesis that the COVID-19 pandemic would have developed its "natural history" by spreading spontaneously despite the measures taken to contain it. The diversity highlighted by the classification into "formal clusters" suggests explanations involving the notion of demographic and geographic epicenters.


id: cord-339387-s2mydwff
title: COVID-19 containment in the Caribbean: the experience of Small Island Developing States
author: Murphy, M. M.
date: 2020-06-02
url: http://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.05.27.20114538v1?rss=1
doi: 10.1101/2020.05.27.20114538
abstract:
  Background. Small island developing states (SIDS) have limited absolute resources for responding to national disasters, including health emergencies. Since the first confirmed case of COVID-19 in the Caribbean on 1st March 2020, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been widely used to control the resulting COVID-19 outbreak. We document the variety of government measures introduced across the Caribbean and explore their impact on aspects of outbreak control. Methods. Drawing on publically available information, we present confirmed cases and confirmed deaths to describe the extent of the Caribbean outbreak. We document the range of outbreak containment measures implemented by national Governments, focussing on measures to control movement and gatherings. We explore the temporal association of containment measures with the start of the outbreak in each country, and with aggregated information on human movement, using smartphone positioning data. We include a set of comparator countries to provide an international context. Results. As of 25th May, the Caribbean reported 18,755 confirmed cases and 631 deaths. There have been broad similarities but also variation in the number, the type, the intensity, and particularly the timing of the NPIs introduced across the Caribbean. On average, Caribbean governments began controlling movement into countries 27 days before their first confirmed case and 23 days before comparator countries. Controls on movement within country were introduced 9 days after the first case and 36 days before comparators. Controls on gatherings were implemented 1 day before the first confirmed case and 30 days before comparators. Confirmed case growth rates and numbers of deaths have remained low across much the Caribbean. Stringent Caribbean curfews and stay-at-home orders coincided with large reductions in community mobility, regularly above 60%, and higher than most international comparator countries. Conclusion. Stringent controls to limit movement, and specifically the early timing of those controls has had an important impact on containing the spread of COVID-19 across much of the Caribbean. Very early controls to limit movement into countries may well be particularly effective for small island developing states. With much of the region economically reliant on international tourism, and with steps to open borders now being considered, it is critical that the region draws on a solid evidence-base to balance the competing demands of economics and public health.


id: cord-340713-v5sdowb7
author: Bird, Jordan J.
date: 2020-10-28
url: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0241332
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0241332
title:
  Country-level pandemic risk and preparedness classification based on COVID-19 data: A machine learning approach

abstract:
  In this work we present a three-stage Machine Learning strategy to country-level risk classification based on countries that are reporting COVID-19 information. A K% binning discretisation (K = 25) is used to create four risk groups of countries based on the risk of transmission (coronavirus cases per million population), risk of mortality (coronavirus deaths per million population), and risk of inability to test (coronavirus tests per million population). The four risk groups produced by K% binning are labelled as ‘low’, ‘medium-low’, ‘medium-high’, and ‘high’. Coronavirus-related data are then removed and the attributes for prediction of the three types of risk are given as the geopolitical and demographic data describing each country. Thus, the calculation of class label is based on coronavirus data but the input attributes are country-level information regardless of coronavirus data. The three four-class classification problems are then explored and benchmarked through leave-one-country-out cross validation to find the strongest model, producing a Stack of Gradient Boosting and Decision Tree algorithms for risk of transmission, a Stack of Support Vector Machine and Extra Trees for risk of mortality, and a Gradient Boosting algorithm for the risk of inability to test. It is noted that high risk for inability to test is often coupled with low risks for transmission and mortality, therefore the risk of inability to test should be interpreted first, before consideration is given to the predicted transmission and mortality risks. Finally, the approach is applied to more recent risk levels to data from September 2020 and weaker results are noted due to the growth of international collaboration detracting useful knowledge from country-level attributes which suggests that similar machine learning approaches are more useful prior to situations later unfolding.


id: cord-341132-arhpqgl6
title: Rich at risk: socio-economic drivers of COVID-19 pandemic spread
author: Gangemi, Sebastiano
date: 2020-07-01
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32617078/
doi: 10.1186/s12948-020-00127-4
abstract:
  COVID-19, the novel coronavirus affecting the most part of worldwide countries since early 2020, is fast increasing its prevalence around the world, representing a significant emergency for the population and the health systems at large. While proper treatments are being developed, in-depth studies concerning its way of diffusion are necessary, in order to understand how the virus is actually spreading, through the investigation on some socio-economic indicators for the various countries in the world, retrieved through open-access data publicly available. The correlation analysis displayed significant relationships between COVID-19 incidence with several of such indicators, including the Gross Domestic Product per capita and the number of flights per capita, whereas mortality is mainly related to the main age of the population. All such data displayed an interesting mean to understand the way the virus has diffused worldwide, possibly representing the basis for future preventive measures to effectively challenge a new COVID-19 pandemic wave, but also other, similar pandemics.


id: cord-343553-07c9ec2b
author: Radfar, S. R.
date: 2020-09-22
url: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.09.21.20199133
doi: 10.1101/2020.09.21.20199133
title:
  Reorganization of Substance Use Treatment and Harm Reduction Services during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Global Survey

abstract:
  Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted people with substance use disorders (SUDs) worldwide, and healthcare systems have reorganized their services in response to the pandemic. Methods: One week after the announcement of the COVID-19 as a pandemic, in a global survey, 177 addiction medicine professionals described COVID-19-related health responses in their own 77 countries in terms of SUD treatment and harm reduction services. The health response is categorized around (1) managerial measures and systems, (2) logistics, (3) service providers, and (4) vulnerable groups. Results: Respondents from over 88% of countries reported that core medical and psychiatric care for SUDs had continued; however, only 56% of countries reported having had any business continuity plan, and 37.5% of countries reported shortages of methadone or buprenorphine supplies. Participants of 41% of countries reported partial discontinuation of harm-reduction services such as needle and syringe programs and condom distribution. 57% of overdose prevention interventions and 81% of outreach services also having been negatively impacted. Conclusions: Participants reported that SUD treatment and harm reduction services had been significantly impacted globally early during the COVID-19 pandemic. Based on our findings, we provide a series of recommendations to support countries to be prepared more efficiently for future waves or similar pandemics to 1) help policymakers generate business continuity plans, 2) maintain the use of evidence-based interventions for people with SUDs, 3) be prepared for adequate medication supplies, 4) integrate harm reduction programs with other treatment modalities and 5) have specific considerations for vulnerable groups such as immigrants and refugees.


id: cord-344866-vhuw4gwn
title: Covid-19 as cultural trauma
author: Demertzis, Nicolas
date: 2020-09-10
txt: ./txt/cord-344866-vhuw4gwn.txt
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url: https://doi.org/10.1057/s41290-020-00112-z
doi: 10.1057/s41290-020-00112-z
summary:
  Explaining this, Smelser writes: ''with respect to the dimension of time alone, the traumatic process was truncated… The moment of the attacks to the recognition that they constituted a national trauma was a matter of short days, if not hours…The scope of the trauma and the identity of the victims were established immediately… there was an instant consensus that it was a trauma for everybody, for the nation… there was no significant divergence in the reactions of government and community leaders, the media, and the public in assigning meaning to the events as a national tragedy and outrage…there was little evidence of social division around the trauma'' (Smelser 2004, p. However, despite initial high levels of anxiety the pandemic did not evolve into cultural trauma in either, even with an exceptionally high death rate in Sweden and the great difference in trust in authority that distinguishes the two countries.

abstract:
  This paper has two aims. The first is to introduce the concept of compressed cultural trauma, and the second is to apply the theory of cultural trauma in two case studies of the current covid-19 pandemic, Greece and Sweden. Our central question is whether the pandemic will evolve into a cultural trauma in these two countries. We believe the pandemic presents a challenge to cultural trauma theory, which the idea of compressed trauma is meant to address. We conclude that, while the ongoing covid-19 pandemic has had traumatic consequences in Sweden and Greece, it has not evolved into cultural trauma in either country.


id: cord-346498-m1v9q7gk
title: Zoonoses and One Health: A Review of the Literature
author: Bidaisee, Satesh
date: 2014-01-30
txt: ./txt/cord-346498-m1v9q7gk.txt
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mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.1155/2014/874345
doi: 10.1155/2014/874345
summary:
  (3) Grants and funding allocations were characterized as proposals for funding research, policy development, and so forth in the collaborative subject matter of humans, animals, and the environment accessed from reviewing all professional publications available from the systematic search conducted. For data analysis, chi-square was conducted to determine if, in the resulting reviewed years, one health resources themselves, scopes, and country locale differed significantly from the averages expected. Since all the values were < 0.05, the null hypothesis was rejected and it was concluded that the years selected for the study showed a dependent relationship on the one health approach conducted, the scope topic areas and the represented country in the scholarly work. The distribution of the years of the one health approach, the scholarly resources, the scopes, and the countries'' locale were not equally represented.

abstract:
  Background. One health is a concept that was officially adopted by international organizations and scholarly bodies in 1984. It is the notion of combining human, animal, and environmental components to address global health challenges that have an ecological interconnectedness. Methods. A cross-sectional study of the available literature cited was conducted from January 1984 when the one health concept was adopted till December 2012 to examine the role of the one health approach towards zoonoses. Inclusion criteria included publications, professional presentations, funding allocations, official documentation books, and book chapters, and exclusion criteria included those citations written outside the period of review. Results. A total of 737 resources met the inclusion criteria and were considered in this review. Resources showed a continuous upward trend for the years from 2006 to 2012. The predominant resources were journal publications with environmental health as the significant scope focus for one health. There was also an emphasis on the distribution of the work from developed countries. All categories of years, resources, scopes, and country locale differed from the means (P = 0.000). Year of initiative, scope, and country locale showed a dependent relationship (P = 0.022, P = 0.003, and P = 0.021, resp.). Conclusion. Our findings demonstrate the rapid growth in embracing the concept of one health, particularly in developed countries over the past six years. The advantages and benefits of this approach in tackling zoonoses are manifold, yet they are still not seemingly being embraced in developing countries where zoonoses have the greatest impact.


id: cord-347182-oj3v1x99
title: Robust estimation of diagnostic rate and real incidence of COVID-19 for European policymakers
author: Catala, M.
date: 2020-05-06
txt: ./txt/cord-347182-oj3v1x99.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-347182-oj3v1x99.txt
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mime: text/plain
url: http://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.05.01.20087023v1?rss=1
doi: 10.1101/2020.05.01.20087023
summary:
  While total deaths immediately indicate that countries like Italy and Spain have the worst situation as of mid April 2020, on its own, reported cases do not provide a correct picture of the situation. Then we discuss our key assumption: the real 41 case fatality rate (CFR) in European countries experiencing a significative incidence will 42 be roughly the same, given the similar structure of the population. Using this rate is straightforward to give a present-day estimate of the 63 incidence given the number of reported infected people in each country as long as we 64 can observe that the rate of diagnosis remains fairly constant. This value can 86 be compared with the number of cases detected 18 days ago, obtaining a diagnostic depending on the availability of tests, saturation of the health system and other 91 external factors, countries have a great variability in the time of diagnosis delay.

abstract:
  Policymakers need a clear and fast assessment of the real spread of the epidemic of COVID-19 in each of their respective countries. Standard measures of the situation provided by the governments include reported positive cases and total deaths. While total deaths immediately indicate that countries like Italy and Spain have the worst situation as of mid April 2020, on its own, reported cases do not provide a correct picture of the situation. The reason is that different countries diagnose diversely and present very distinctive reported case fatality rate (CFR). The same levels of reported incidence and mortality might hide a very different underlying picture. Here we present a straightforward and robust estimation of the diagnostic rate in each European country. From that estimation we obtain an uniform unbiased incidence of the epidemic. The method to obtain the diagnostic rate is transparent and empiric. The key assumption of the method is that the real CFR in Europe of COVID-19 is not strongly country-dependent. We show that this number is not expected to be biased due to demography nor the way total deaths are reported. The estimation protocol has a dynamic nature, and it has been giving converging numbers for diagnostic rates in all European countries as of mid April 2020. From this diagnostic rate, policy makers can obtain an Effective Potential Growth (EPG) updated everyday providing an unbiased assessment of the countries with more potential to have an uncontrolled situation. The method developed will be used to track possible improvements on the diagnostic rate in European countries as the epidemic evolves.


id: cord-351666-q7dqsl7n
author: Milani, Fabio
date: 2020-08-19
txt: ./txt/cord-351666-q7dqsl7n.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-351666-q7dqsl7n.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32839640/
doi: 10.1007/s00148-020-00792-4
summary:
  2 In my global framework, for each country, COVID-19 cases can affect risk perceptions about the virus, which can trigger a social distancing response. The paper exploits a variety of newly available datasets to study the interrelationship between health shocks originating from the COVID-19 pandemic, people''s real-time perceptions about coronavirus risk, the extent of their social distancing response, and unemployment. 7 In the analysis, the number k * i is also equal to 4, as the vector x * i,t contains the country-specific global counterparts for the same variables in x i,t , i.e., the growth rate of COVID-19 cases, coronavirus risk perceptions, social mobility, and unemployment. Figures 4 and 5 show the impulse response functions for all countries in the sample for the risk perception and social distancing variables to a one-standard-deviation COVID shock originating in Italy.

title:
  COVID-19 outbreak, social response, and early economic effects: a global VAR analysis of cross-country interdependencies

abstract:
  This paper studies the social and economic responses to the COVID-19 pandemic in a large sample of countries. I stress, in particular, the importance of countries’ interconnections to understand the spread of the virus. I estimate a global VAR model and exploit a dataset on existing social connections across country borders. I show that social networks help explain not only the spread of the disease but also cross-country spillovers in perceptions about coronavirus risk and in social distancing behavior. In the early phases of the pandemic, perceptions of coronavirus risk in most countries are affected by pandemic shocks originating in Italy. Later, the USA, Spain, and the UK play sizable roles. Social distancing responses to domestic and global health shocks are heterogeneous; however, they almost always exhibit delays and sluggish adjustments. Unemployment responses vary widely across countries. Unemployment is particularly responsive to health shocks in the USA and Spain, while unemployment fluctuFations are attenuated almost everywhere else.


id: cord-352247-baqbxez9
title: Public Support for Development Aid during the COVID-19 Pandemic
author: Kobayashi, Yoshiharu
date: 2020-10-21
txt: ./txt/cord-352247-baqbxez9.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-352247-baqbxez9.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/pii/S0305750X20303752
doi: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105248
summary:
  The second experiment exposes respondents to a message linking COVID-19 to increased hardships for people in poorer countries or to a message suggesting aid that helps African countries deal with COVID-19 will also have public health benefits at home in several months. The second channel stresses the effects of COVID-19 on people in recipient countries and how news, arguments, and messages about them influence donor-side public attitudes. First, we estimate the ITT effect by comparing the expressed aid support under the treatment about household financial worries against the control condition. Prompting respondents to worry about the country''s financial situation causes them to be less supportive of foreign aid, while asking them to consider their own household finances does little to their aid opinions. The results from two experiments demonstrate that voters'' worry about the financial impact of COVID-19 on their own country reduces their support for aid and that their awareness of the benefits of assisting developing countries in curbing the second wave of outbreak at home substantially increase support.

abstract:
  Global pandemics are a serious concern for developing countries, perhaps particularly when the same pandemic also affects donors of development aid. During crises at home, donors often cut aid, which would have grave ramifications for developing countries with poor public health capacity during a time of increased demand for health care. Because the major donors are democracies, whether they renege on promises would depend intimately on how donor citizens respond to the specific crisis. We conduct two survey experiments with 887 U.S. residents to examine how the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic influences their attitudes toward aid. We demonstrate that citizens’ concern about the impact of COVID-19 on their country’s financial situation reduces their support for aid. If they think that aid can help curb the next wave of the disease at home by first alleviating its impact in developing countries, they become substantially more supportive of giving aid. In contrast, merely stressing how COVID-19 might ravage developing countries barely changes their aid attitudes. Our findings have implications for what to expect from donors during global pandemics as well as how advocates may prevent aid from being cut.


id: cord-354339-tchu91av
author: Shahzad, Naeem
date: 2020-05-06
txt: ./txt/cord-354339-tchu91av.txt
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mime: text/plain
url: https://doi.org/10.7189/jogh.10.010353
doi: 10.7189/jogh.10.010353
abstract: nan
summary:
  Photo: Nurse wearing locally produced low cost COVID-19 kit and filling the score card from a suspected patient for initial screening and triage at the emergency control room (from the collection of Dr Naeem Shahzad, used with permission). Therefore, this study has made an effort to design a rapid assessment score card using bottom up approach starting from community level which will help the low-income and developing countries to ascertain the suspected COVID-19 cases at community level. To develop an effective tool for patient screening without overburdening the health care infrastructure while still not compromising the control over the spread of the disease and preventive measures, an effective score card has been developed covering numerous effective parameters for rapid assessment of the probable COIVD-19 cases, as shown in Figure 1 .

title:
  Rapid assessment of COVID-19 suspected cases: A community based approach for developing countries like Pakistan


id: cord-354656-9ao33rq8
title: The rise and fall of infectious diseases: Australian perspectives, 1914‐2014
author: Cossart, Yvonne E
date: 2014-07-07
txt: ./txt/cord-354656-9ao33rq8.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-354656-9ao33rq8.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25047768/
doi: 10.5694/mja14.00112
summary:
  2 The success of rat extermination in controlling plague in Sydney 3 provided a triumphant validation of new microbiological theories; Joseph Lister''s carbolic spray was adopted by local surgeons; 4 Emil von Behring''s antitoxin treatment reduced mortality from diphtheria; 5 and Paul Ehrlich''s vision of a magic bullet to cure all infections was given credibility by the effi cacy of Salvarsan (arsphenamine, an arsenic-containing compound) against syphilis. 9,10 9,10 During World War II (WWII), intensive screening of Australian troops by miniature x-ray was followed up with bacteriological testing to identify patients with active infection, for whom treatment was compulsory. Tests were developed to screen donated blood and it soon became apparent that injecting drug use had silently amplifi ed prevalence of hepatitis C infection in young people in Western countries.

abstract:
  Australia has been fortunate in its experience with infectious diseases over the past century. By the 1960s, many communicable diseases were controlled through a combination of high living standards, progressive adoption of vaccines and antimicrobial treatment. Australian medical scientists have made substantial contributions to the understanding of many historically significant communicable diseases and global initiatives for control. New challenges have emerged as previously unrecognised viral infections have emerged, and microbial resistance to antibiotics has developed in many old pathogens. Ongoing evolutionary forces, both environmental and social, change the balance between humans and microbes. The effects of these forces are most sorely felt in poor countries and communities.


id: cord-355074-u5s3uzp6
title: COVID-19 Pandemic: Is Africa Different?
author: Bamgboye, Ebun L.
date: 2020-11-03
txt: ./txt/cord-355074-u5s3uzp6.txt
cache: ./cache/cord-355074-u5s3uzp6.txt
extension: .txt
mime: text/plain
url: https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/pii/S002796842030345X
doi: 10.1016/j.jnma.2020.10.001
summary:
  We also collected data on variables that could explain the apparent differences in COVID-19 case numbers, mortality, and tests in Africa, compared to other parts of the world. Case numbers, mortality, number of tests performed, and demographic data were summarized and compared by continents, regions, and countries within the continent of Africa. The number of cases per million population (pmp) globally is 2,278, with South America (9549 pmp), North America (9,331) and Europe (3,842) the most affected regions, while Africa has a lower rate of 695 pmp ( Figure 2 ). Within the continent as well, countries with slightly older populations like Egypt and South Africa are also the ones with the highest numbers and the greater case fatality rates ( Figure 5 ). The prevalence of these conditions is greatest in the countries of the Maghreb and South Africa all of which have the highest case numbers and the worst CFR on the continent (Figures 6 and 7) .

abstract:
  COVID-19 has now spread to all the continents of the world with the possible exception of Antarctica. However, Africa appears different when compared with all the other continents. The absence of exponential growth and the low mortality rates contrary to that experienced in other continents, and contrary to the projections for Africa by various agencies, including the World Health Organization (WHO) has been a puzzle to many. Although Africa is the second most populous continent with an estimated 17.2% of the world's population, the continent accounts for only 5% of the total cases and 3% of the mortality. Mortality for the whole of Africa remains at a reported 19,726 as at August 01, 2020. The onset of the pandemic was later, the rate of rise has been slower and the severity of illness and case fatality rates have been lower in comparison to other continents. In addition, contrary to what had been documented in other continents, the occurrence of the renal complications in these patients also appeared to be much lower. This report documents the striking differences between the continents and within the continent of Africa itself and then attempts to explain the reasons for these differences. It is hoped that information presented in this review will help policymakers in the fight to contain the pandemic, particularly within Africa with its resource-constrained health care systems.


id: cord-355726-44x0idzn
title: Introduction: Discovering Issues and Challenges in Low- and Middle-Income Countries
author: Ibrahim, Mohamed Izham Mohamed
date: 2017-11-10
txt: ./txt/cord-355726-44x0idzn.txt
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mime: text/plain
url: https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/pii/B9780128112281000017
doi: 10.1016/b978-0-12-811228-1.00001-7
summary:
  This book also provides knowledge and understanding about social and administrative aspects of pharmacy in healthcare in lowand middle-income countries. On the other hand, there are growing problems with medicines, the health system, and human resources, especially in the LMICs. There are countries with high prices of medicines, a wide prevalence of nonquality medicines (i.e., substandard and counterfeit), lack of access to medicines, and absence of a national medicines policy (NMP) even with strong encouragement from World Health Organization (WHO). Further according to Frieden and Henning (2009) , a progress of public health in developing countries is possible but will require sufficient funding and human resources; improved physical infrastructure and information systems; effective program implementation and regulatory capacity; and, most importantly, political will at the highest levels of government. Social pharmacy scientists utilize both sciences to improve clinical practice, enhance the effectiveness of pharmaceutical regulations and policy, advocate political awareness, and promote improvements in pharmaceutical health services and healthcare delivery.

abstract:
  There are gaps and challenges in pharmacy practice in developing countries and possible solutions for various pharmacy stakeholders. Health and public health are essentials for development. The weak global economy has hindered progress toward the sustainable development goals. Many people are still living in poverty with poor health status and inadequate healthcare. Poor health and pharmaceutical sectors in a country will increase the vulnerability of the country and leaves the society at risk. Effective public health interventions can save hundreds of millions of lives. Pharmacy system is one of the core components in a healthcare system, and pharmacists play a very important role. This book sheds light on various topics that individually and in combination determine the status of pharmacy practice in individual countries. This book incorporates multiple data sources and when outliers are discovered, that may be called to the attention of the reader. This book also provides knowledge and understanding about social and administrative aspects of pharmacy in healthcare in low- and middle-income countries.


