id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-275395-w2u7fq1g	Romero-Severson, Ethan Obie	Change in global transmission rates of COVID-19 through May 6 2020	2020-08-06		.txt	text/plain	4021	188	58	In this report, we developed a deterministic-stochastic hybrid model and fitted the model to case incidence and death incidence time series data from 55 countries. We model the spread of COVID-19 as a partially observed Markov process with real-valued states S (susceptible), E (exposed), I (infected), and R (removed) to describe the latent population dynamics, and integer-valued states C 0 (to be counted), Y 1 (counted cases), D 0:3 (dying), and Y 2 (counted deaths) to model sampling into the data. Generally, countries that were found to have both variable transmission rates and variable detection probabilities (model 3 in Table 1) show a pattern of level or increasing deaths coupled with a level or slightly declining incidence in number of reported cases. The deaths due to COVID-19 in Europe are lower than the average number of reported deaths in a period of the same length for all countries in the data set that also had all-cause death counts from previous years.	./cache/cord-275395-w2u7fq1g.txt	./txt/cord-275395-w2u7fq1g.txt