id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-104095-g6l57s4x	Flyvbjerg, Bent	Regression to the Tail: Why the Olympics Blow Up	2020-09-28		.txt	text/plain	11598	579	63	The paper tests theoretical statistical distributions against empirical data for the costs of the Games, in order to explain the cost risks faced by host cities and nations. Finally, the paper develops measures for good practice in planning and managing the Games, including how to mitigate the extreme risks of the Olympic power law. While conventional thinking is that a lognormal distribution is thin-tailed, because it has all the moments (mean, variance, etc.), it actually behaves like a power law at a σ > 0.4 (Taleb 2020: 139 ff.) , which is the case for our Olympic costs dataset. In sum, we find: (a) convexity is the root cause of the power-law nature and extreme randomness of cost and cost overrun for the Olympics; (b) convexity is strong for the Games, documented by alpha-values smaller than 2, indicating infinite variance; and (c) convexity at the Games is driven by irreversibility, fixed time schedules, misaligned incentives, tight coupling, long planning horizons, and the Eternal Beginner Syndrome.	./cache/cord-104095-g6l57s4x.txt	./txt/cord-104095-g6l57s4x.txt