id sid tid token lemma pos cord-000317-pixbry0c 1 1 key key NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 1 2 : : : cord-000317-pixbry0c 1 3 cord-000317-pixbry0c cord-000317-pixbry0c NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 1 4 authors author NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 1 5 : : : cord-000317-pixbry0c 1 6 Eggo Eggo NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 1 7 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 1 8 Rosalind Rosalind NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 1 9 M. M. NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 1 10 ; ; : cord-000317-pixbry0c 1 11 Cauchemez Cauchemez NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 1 12 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 1 13 Simon Simon NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 1 14 ; ; : cord-000317-pixbry0c 1 15 Ferguson Ferguson NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 1 16 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 1 17 Neil Neil NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 1 18 M. M. NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 1 19 title title NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 1 20 : : : cord-000317-pixbry0c 1 21 Spatial spatial JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 1 22 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 1 23 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 1 24 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 1 25 1918 1918 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 1 26 influenza influenza NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 1 27 pandemic pandemic NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 1 28 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 1 29 England England NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 1 30 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 1 31 Wales Wales NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 1 32 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 1 33 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 1 34 United United NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 1 35 States States NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 1 36 date date NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 1 37 : : : cord-000317-pixbry0c 1 38 2011 2011 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 1 39 - - SYM cord-000317-pixbry0c 1 40 02 02 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 1 41 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 1 42 06 06 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 1 43 journal journal NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 1 44 : : : cord-000317-pixbry0c 1 45 J J NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 1 46 R R NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 1 47 Soc Soc NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 1 48 Interface Interface NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 1 49 DOI doi NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 1 50 : : : cord-000317-pixbry0c 2 1 10.1098/ 10.1098/ LS cord-000317-pixbry0c 3 1 rsif.2010.0216 rsif.2010.0216 NFP cord-000317-pixbry0c 3 2 sha sha NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 3 3 : : : cord-000317-pixbry0c 4 1 373811bcfe3a46dc6d49b2a1725f1dde8a59e8a9 373811bcfe3a46dc6d49b2a1725f1dde8a59e8a9 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 4 2 doc_id doc_id CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 4 3 : : : cord-000317-pixbry0c 4 4 317 317 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 4 5 cord_uid cord_uid NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 4 6 : : : cord-000317-pixbry0c 5 1 pixbry0c pixbry0c NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 6 1 There there EX cord-000317-pixbry0c 6 2 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 6 3 still still RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 6 4 limited limited JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 6 5 understanding understanding NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 6 6 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 6 7 key key JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 6 8 determinants determinant NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 6 9 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 6 10 spatial spatial JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 6 11 spread spread NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 6 12 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 6 13 influenza influenza NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 6 14 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 7 1 The the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 7 2 1918 1918 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 7 3 pandemic pandemic NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 7 4 provides provide VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 7 5 an an DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 7 6 opportunity opportunity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 7 7 to to TO cord-000317-pixbry0c 7 8 elucidate elucidate VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 7 9 spatial spatial JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 7 10 determinants determinant NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 7 11 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 7 12 spread spread NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 7 13 on on IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 7 14 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 7 15 large large JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 7 16 scale scale NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 7 17 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 8 1 To to TO cord-000317-pixbry0c 8 2 better better RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 8 3 characterize characterize VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 8 4 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 8 5 spread spread NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 8 6 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 8 7 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 8 8 1918 1918 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 8 9 major major JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 8 10 wave wave NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 8 11 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 8 12 we -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 8 13 fitted fit VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 8 14 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 8 15 range range NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 8 16 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 8 17 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 8 18 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 8 19 to to IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 8 20 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 8 21 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 8 22 transmission transmission NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 8 23 models model NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 8 24 to to IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 8 25 mortality mortality NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 8 26 data datum NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 8 27 collected collect VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 8 28 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 8 29 246 246 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 8 30 population population NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 8 31 centres centre NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 8 32 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 8 33 England England NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 8 34 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 8 35 Wales Wales NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 8 36 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 8 37 47 47 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 8 38 cities city NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 8 39 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 8 40 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 8 41 US US NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 8 42 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 9 1 Using use VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 9 2 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 9 3 gravity gravity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 9 4 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 9 5 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 9 6 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 9 7 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 9 8 to to IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 9 9 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 9 10 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 9 11 contacts contact NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 9 12 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 9 13 we -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 9 14 explored explore VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 9 15 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 9 16 effect effect NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 9 17 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 9 18 population population NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 9 19 size size NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 9 20 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 9 21 distance distance NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 9 22 on on IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 9 23 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 9 24 spread spread NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 9 25 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 9 26 disease disease NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 9 27 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 9 28 tested test VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 9 29 assumptions assumption NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 9 30 regarding regard VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 9 31 density density NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 9 32 dependence dependence NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 9 33 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 9 34 connectivity connectivity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 9 35 between between IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 9 36 cities city NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 9 37 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 10 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 10 2 employed employ VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 10 3 Bayesian Bayesian NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 10 4 Markov Markov NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 10 5 Chain Chain NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 10 6 Monte Monte NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 10 7 Carlo Carlo NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 10 8 methods method NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 10 9 to to TO cord-000317-pixbry0c 10 10 estimate estimate VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 10 11 parameters parameter NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 10 12 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 10 13 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 10 14 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 10 15 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 10 16 population population NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 10 17 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 10 18 infectivity infectivity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 10 19 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 10 20 distance distance NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 10 21 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 10 22 density density NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 10 23 dependence dependence NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 10 24 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 11 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 11 2 inferred infer VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 11 3 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 11 4 most most RBS cord-000317-pixbry0c 11 5 likely likely JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 11 6 transmission transmission NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 11 7 trees tree NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 11 8 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 11 9 both both DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 11 10 countries country NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 11 11 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 12 1 For for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 12 2 England England NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 12 3 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 12 4 Wales Wales NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 12 5 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 12 6 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 12 7 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 12 8 that that WDT cord-000317-pixbry0c 12 9 estimated estimate VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 12 10 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 12 11 degree degree NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 12 12 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 12 13 density density NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 12 14 dependence dependence NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 12 15 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 12 16 connectivity connectivity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 12 17 between between IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 12 18 cities city NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 12 19 was be VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 12 20 preferable preferable JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 12 21 by by IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 12 22 deviance deviance NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 12 23 information information NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 12 24 criterion criterion NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 12 25 comparison comparison NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 12 26 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 13 1 Early early RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 13 2 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 13 3 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 13 4 major major JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 13 5 wave wave NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 13 6 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 13 7 long long JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 13 8 distance distance NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 13 9 infective infective JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 13 10 interactions interaction NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 13 11 predominated predominate VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 13 12 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 13 13 with with IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 13 14 local local JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 13 15 infection infection NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 13 16 events event NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 13 17 more more RBR cord-000317-pixbry0c 13 18 likely likely JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 13 19 as as IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 13 20 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 13 21 epidemic epidemic NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 13 22 became become VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 13 23 widespread widespread JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 13 24 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 14 1 For for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 14 2 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 14 3 US US NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 14 4 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 14 5 with with IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 14 6 fewer few JJR cord-000317-pixbry0c 14 7 more more RBR cord-000317-pixbry0c 14 8 widely widely RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 14 9 dispersed disperse VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 14 10 cities city NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 14 11 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 14 12 statistical statistical JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 14 13 power power NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 14 14 was be VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 14 15 lacking lack VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 14 16 to to TO cord-000317-pixbry0c 14 17 estimate estimate VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 14 18 population population NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 14 19 size size NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 14 20 dependence dependence NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 14 21 or or CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 14 22 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 14 23 degree degree NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 14 24 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 14 25 density density NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 14 26 dependence dependence NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 14 27 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 14 28 with with IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 14 29 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 14 30 preferred preferred JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 14 31 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 14 32 depending depend VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 14 33 on on IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 14 34 distance distance NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 14 35 only only RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 14 36 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 15 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 15 2 find find VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 15 3 that that IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 15 4 parameters parameter NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 15 5 estimated estimate VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 15 6 from from IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 15 7 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 15 8 England England NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 15 9 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 15 10 Wales Wales NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 15 11 dataset dataset NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 15 12 can can MD cord-000317-pixbry0c 15 13 be be VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 15 14 applied apply VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 15 15 to to IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 15 16 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 15 17 US US NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 15 18 data datum NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 15 19 with with IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 15 20 no no DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 15 21 likelihood likelihood NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 15 22 penalty penalty NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 15 23 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 16 1 Spatially spatially RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 16 2 explicit explicit JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 16 3 models model NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 16 4 are be VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 16 5 critical critical JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 16 6 to to IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 16 7 understanding understand VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 16 8 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 16 9 spread spread NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 16 10 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 16 11 infectious infectious JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 16 12 diseases disease NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 16 13 through through IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 16 14 populations population NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 16 15 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 16 16 to to TO cord-000317-pixbry0c 16 17 better better RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 16 18 inform inform VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 16 19 policy policy NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 16 20 aimed aim VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 16 21 at at IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 16 22 controlling control VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 16 23 that that DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 16 24 spread spread NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 16 25 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 17 1 Indeed indeed RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 17 2 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 17 3 recent recent JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 17 4 outbreaks outbreak NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 17 5 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 17 6 communicable communicable JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 17 7 diseases disease NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 17 8 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 17 9 human human JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 17 10 populations population NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 17 11 have have VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 17 12 triggered trigger VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 17 13 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 17 14 series series NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 17 15 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 17 16 studies study NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 17 17 addressing address VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 17 18 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 17 19 spread spread NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 17 20 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 17 21 directly directly RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 17 22 transmissible transmissible JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 17 23 infections infection NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 17 24 at at IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 17 25 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 17 26 country country NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 17 27 level level NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 17 28 [ [ -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 17 29 1 1 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 17 30 -5 -5 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 17 31 ] ] -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 17 32 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 18 1 Identifying identify VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 18 2 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 18 3 possible possible JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 18 4 backbone backbone NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 18 5 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 18 6 high high JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 18 7 probability probability NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 18 8 transmission transmission NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 18 9 paths path NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 18 10 through through IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 18 11 populations population NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 18 12 may may MD cord-000317-pixbry0c 18 13 underpin underpin VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 18 14 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 18 15 development development NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 18 16 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 18 17 effective effective JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 18 18 interventions intervention NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 18 19 to to TO cord-000317-pixbry0c 18 20 curtail curtail VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 18 21 spread spread VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 18 22 on on IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 18 23 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 18 24 population population NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 18 25 network network NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 18 26 [ [ -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 18 27 6 6 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 18 28 ] ] -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 18 29 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 19 1 For for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 19 2 example example NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 19 3 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 19 4 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 19 5 human human JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 19 6 diseases disease NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 19 7 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 19 8 spatial spatial JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 19 9 models model NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 19 10 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 19 11 microsimulations microsimulation NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 19 12 can can MD cord-000317-pixbry0c 19 13 quantify quantify VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 19 14 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 19 15 possible possible JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 19 16 role role NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 19 17 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 19 18 border border NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 19 19 control control NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 19 20 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 19 21 quarantine quarantine NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 19 22 or or CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 19 23 transport transport NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 19 24 reductions reduction NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 19 25 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 19 26 curtailing curtail VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 19 27 local local JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 19 28 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 19 29 international international JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 19 30 spread spread NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 19 31 [ [ -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 19 32 2 2 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 19 33 -4,6 -4,6 NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 19 34 -11 -11 ADD cord-000317-pixbry0c 19 35 ] ] -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 19 36 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 20 1 Spatial spatial JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 20 2 microsimulation microsimulation NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 20 3 models model NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 20 4 like like IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 20 5 these these DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 20 6 are be VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 20 7 critical critical JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 20 8 to to IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 20 9 making make VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 20 10 effective effective JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 20 11 policy policy NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 20 12 decisions decision NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 20 13 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 21 1 Spatial spatial JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 21 2 models model NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 21 3 also also RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 21 4 allow allow VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 21 5 limited limited JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 21 6 control control NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 21 7 resources resource NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 21 8 to to TO cord-000317-pixbry0c 21 9 be be VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 21 10 used use VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 21 11 where where WRB cord-000317-pixbry0c 21 12 they -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 21 13 might may MD cord-000317-pixbry0c 21 14 be be VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 21 15 most most RBS cord-000317-pixbry0c 21 16 effective effective JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 21 17 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 22 1 For for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 22 2 instance instance NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 22 3 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 22 4 during during IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 22 5 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 22 6 initial initial JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 22 7 stages stage NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 22 8 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 22 9 an an DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 22 10 outbreak outbreak NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 22 11 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 22 12 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 22 13 new new JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 22 14 virus virus NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 22 15 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 22 16 disease disease NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 22 17 incidence incidence NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 22 18 tends tend VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 22 19 to to TO cord-000317-pixbry0c 22 20 occur occur VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 22 21 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 22 22 spatial spatial JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 22 23 clusters cluster NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 22 24 with with IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 22 25 occasional occasional JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 22 26 long long JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 22 27 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 22 28 range range NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 22 29 infection infection NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 22 30 events event NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 22 31 [ [ -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 22 32 10 10 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 22 33 ] ] -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 22 34 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 23 1 As as IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 23 2 case case NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 23 3 numbers number NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 23 4 increase increase VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 23 5 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 23 6 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 23 7 start start NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 23 8 location location NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 23 9 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 23 10 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 23 11 frequency frequency NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 23 12 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 23 13 long long JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 23 14 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 23 15 range range NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 23 16 infection infection NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 23 17 events event NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 23 18 increases increase VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 23 19 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 24 1 This this DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 24 2 spatial spatial JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 24 3 pattern pattern NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 24 4 was be VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 24 5 seen see VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 24 6 during during IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 24 7 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 24 8 early early JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 24 9 stages stage NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 24 10 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 24 11 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 24 12 2009 2009 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 24 13 influenza influenza NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 24 14 pandemic pandemic NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 24 15 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 24 16 Mexico Mexico NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 24 17 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 24 18 leading lead VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 24 19 to to IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 24 20 local local JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 24 21 foci foci NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 24 22 seeded seed VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 24 23 by by IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 24 24 long long JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 24 25 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 24 26 range range NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 24 27 interactions interaction NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 24 28 to to IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 24 29 other other JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 24 30 countries country NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 24 31 [ [ -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 24 32 12 12 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 24 33 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 24 34 13 13 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 24 35 ] ] -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 24 36 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 25 1 However however RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 25 2 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 25 3 those those DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 25 4 epidemic epidemic NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 25 5 models model NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 25 6 rely rely VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 25 7 on on IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 25 8 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 25 9 set set NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 25 10 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 25 11 structural structural JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 25 12 assumptions assumption NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 25 13 that that WDT cord-000317-pixbry0c 25 14 need need VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 25 15 to to TO cord-000317-pixbry0c 25 16 be be VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 25 17 validated validate VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 25 18 from from IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 25 19 data datum NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 25 20 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 26 1 A a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 26 2 basic basic JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 26 3 assumption assumption NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 26 4 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 26 5 many many JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 26 6 spatially spatially RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 26 7 explicit explicit JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 26 8 transmission transmission NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 26 9 models model NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 26 10 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 26 11 that that IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 26 12 flows flow VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 26 13 between between IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 26 14 urban urban JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 26 15 centres centre NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 26 16 are be VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 26 17 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 26 18 function function NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 26 19 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 26 20 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 26 21 distance distance NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 26 22 between between IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 26 23 them -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 26 24 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 26 25 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-000317-pixbry0c 26 26 attributes attribute NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 26 27 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 26 28 most most RBS cord-000317-pixbry0c 26 29 notably notably RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 26 30 residential residential JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 26 31 or or CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 26 32 worker worker NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 26 33 population population NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 26 34 sizes size NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 26 35 [ [ -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 26 36 14 14 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 26 37 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 26 38 15 15 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 26 39 ] ] -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 26 40 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 26 41 resulting result VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 26 42 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 26 43 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 26 44 so so RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 26 45 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 26 46 called call VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 26 47 gravity gravity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 26 48 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 26 49 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 27 1 However however RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 27 2 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 27 3 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 27 4 human human JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 27 5 diseases disease NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 27 6 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 27 7 little little JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 27 8 work work NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 27 9 has have VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 27 10 been be VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 27 11 done do VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 27 12 to to TO cord-000317-pixbry0c 27 13 validate validate VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 27 14 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 27 15 underlying underlying JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 27 16 assumption assumption NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 27 17 that that IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 27 18 human human JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 27 19 travel travel NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 27 20 patterns pattern NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 27 21 are be VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 27 22 predictive predictive JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 27 23 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 27 24 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 27 25 spatial spatial JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 27 26 spread spread NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 27 27 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 27 28 diseases disease NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 27 29 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 28 1 Early early JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 28 2 models model NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 28 3 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 28 4 spatial spatial JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 28 5 coupling coupling NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 28 6 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 28 7 ecology ecology NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 28 8 assumed assume VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 28 9 that that IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 28 10 connectivity connectivity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 28 11 between between IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 28 12 populations population NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 28 13 was be VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 28 14 inversely inversely RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 28 15 related relate VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 28 16 to to IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 28 17 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 28 18 distance distance NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 28 19 between between IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 28 20 them -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 28 21 [ [ -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 28 22 16 16 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 28 23 ] ] -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 28 24 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 29 1 For for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 29 2 people people NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 29 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 29 4 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 29 5 most most JJS cord-000317-pixbry0c 29 6 animals animal NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 29 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 29 8 distance distance NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 29 9 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 29 10 based base VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 29 11 coupling coupling NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 29 12 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 29 13 too too RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 29 14 simplistic simplistic JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 29 15 an an DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 29 16 assumption assumption NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 29 17 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 30 1 Movement movement NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 30 2 between between IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 30 3 large large JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 30 4 population population NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 30 5 centres centre NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 30 6 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 30 7 disproportionately disproportionately RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 30 8 more more RBR cord-000317-pixbry0c 30 9 frequent frequent JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 30 10 than than IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 30 11 between between IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 30 12 smaller small JJR cord-000317-pixbry0c 30 13 ones one NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 30 14 [ [ -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 30 15 17 17 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 30 16 ] ] -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 30 17 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 31 1 Xia Xia NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 31 2 et et NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 31 3 al al NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 31 4 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 32 1 [ [ -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 32 2 18 18 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 32 3 ] ] -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 32 4 found find VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 32 5 that that IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 32 6 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 32 7 distance distance NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 32 8 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 32 9 only only JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 32 10 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 32 11 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 32 12 spread spread NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 32 13 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 32 14 measles measle NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 32 15 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 32 16 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 32 17 UK UK NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 32 18 was be VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 32 19 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 32 20 poor poor JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 32 21 fit fit NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 32 22 to to IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 32 23 weekly weekly JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 32 24 measles measles NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 32 25 data datum NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 32 26 from from IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 32 27 England England NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 32 28 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 32 29 Wales Wales NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 32 30 from from IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 32 31 1944 1944 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 32 32 to to IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 32 33 1967 1967 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 32 34 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 33 1 The the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 33 2 gravity gravity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 33 3 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 33 4 used use VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 33 5 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 33 6 that that DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 33 7 study study NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 33 8 measures measure VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 33 9 connectivity connectivity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 33 10 between between IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 33 11 population population NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 33 12 centres centre NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 33 13 as as IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 33 14 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 33 15 function function NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 33 16 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 33 17 distance distance NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 33 18 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 33 19 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 33 20 function function NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 33 21 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 33 22 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 33 23 population population NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 33 24 sizes size NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 33 25 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 33 26 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 33 27 origin origin NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 33 28 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 33 29 destination destination NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 33 30 cities city NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 33 31 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 34 1 However however RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 34 2 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 34 3 measles measles NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 34 4 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 34 5 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 34 6 childhood childhood NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 34 7 disease disease NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 34 8 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 34 9 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 34 10 so so RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 34 11 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 34 12 spatial spatial JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 34 13 dependencies dependency NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 34 14 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 34 15 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 34 16 host host NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 34 17 are be VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 34 18 different different JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 34 19 than than IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 34 20 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 34 21 infections infection NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 34 22 that that WDT cord-000317-pixbry0c 34 23 affect affect VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 34 24 both both DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 34 25 adults adult NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 34 26 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 34 27 children child NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 34 28 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 34 29 such such JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 34 30 as as IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 34 31 pandemic pandemic NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 34 32 influenza influenza NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 34 33 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 35 1 Gravity gravity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 35 2 models model NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 35 3 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 35 4 other other JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 35 5 spatial spatial JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 35 6 interaction interaction NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 35 7 models model NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 35 8 allow allow VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 35 9 understanding understanding NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 35 10 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 35 11 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 35 12 movement movement NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 35 13 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 35 14 populations population NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 35 15 from from IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 35 16 one one CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 35 17 location location NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 35 18 to to IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 35 19 another another DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 35 20 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 35 21 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 35 22 absence absence NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 35 23 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 35 24 movement movement NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 35 25 data datum NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 35 26 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 36 1 Models model NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 36 2 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 36 3 once once RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 36 4 validated validate VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 36 5 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 36 6 can can MD cord-000317-pixbry0c 36 7 predict predict VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 36 8 modifications modification NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 36 9 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 36 10 connectivity connectivity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 36 11 when when WRB cord-000317-pixbry0c 36 12 populations population NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 36 13 grow grow VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 36 14 or or CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 36 15 shrink shrink VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 36 16 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 36 17 when when WRB cord-000317-pixbry0c 36 18 workflows workflow NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 36 19 vary vary VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 36 20 owing owe VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 36 21 to to IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 36 22 economic economic JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 36 23 changes change NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 36 24 or or CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 36 25 if if IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 36 26 restrictions restriction NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 36 27 are be VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 36 28 imposed impose VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 36 29 on on IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 36 30 one one CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 36 31 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 36 32 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 36 33 not not RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 36 34 others other NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 36 35 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 37 1 This this DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 37 2 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 37 3 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 37 4 contrast contrast NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 37 5 to to IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 37 6 movement movement NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 37 7 surveys survey NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 37 8 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 37 9 which which WDT cord-000317-pixbry0c 37 10 are be VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 37 11 context context NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 37 12 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 37 13 specific specific JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 37 14 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 37 15 provide provide VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 37 16 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 37 17 snapshot snapshot NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 37 18 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 37 19 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 37 20 movement movement NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 37 21 habits habit NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 37 22 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 37 23 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 37 24 population population NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 37 25 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 38 1 The the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 38 2 strength strength NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 38 3 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 38 4 connection connection NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 38 5 between between IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 38 6 cities city NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 38 7 may may MD cord-000317-pixbry0c 38 8 be be VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 38 9 density density NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 38 10 independent independent JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 38 11 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 38 12 that that RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 38 13 is is RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 38 14 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 38 15 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 38 16 sum sum NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 38 17 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 38 18 connectivity connectivity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 38 19 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 38 20 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 38 21 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 38 22 to to IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 38 23 all all PDT cord-000317-pixbry0c 38 24 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-000317-pixbry0c 38 25 neighbours neighbour NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 38 26 does do VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 38 27 not not RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 38 28 depend depend VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 38 29 on on IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 38 30 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 38 31 number number NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 38 32 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 38 33 neighbours neighbour NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 38 34 that that WDT cord-000317-pixbry0c 38 35 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 38 36 has have VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 38 37 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 39 1 In in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 39 2 contrast contrast NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 39 3 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 39 4 density density NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 39 5 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 39 6 dependent dependent JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 39 7 connectivity connectivity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 39 8 links link VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 39 9 two two CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 39 10 cities city NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 39 11 at at IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 39 12 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 39 13 strength strength NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 39 14 solely solely RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 39 15 determined determine VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 39 16 by by IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 39 17 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 39 18 sizes size NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 39 19 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 39 20 those those DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 39 21 cities city NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 39 22 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 39 23 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-000317-pixbry0c 39 24 distance distance NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 39 25 apart apart RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 39 26 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 39 27 so so IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 39 28 that that IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 39 29 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 39 30 total total JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 39 31 connectivity connectivity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 39 32 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 39 33 any any DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 39 34 one one CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 39 35 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 39 36 scales scale NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 39 37 with with IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 39 38 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 39 39 number number NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 39 40 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 39 41 close close JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 39 42 neighbours neighbour NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 39 43 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 40 1 Density density NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 40 2 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 40 3 independent independent JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 40 4 transmission transmission NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 40 5 gives give VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 40 6 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 40 7 total total JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 40 8 force force NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 40 9 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 40 10 infection infection NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 40 11 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 40 12 which which WDT cord-000317-pixbry0c 40 13 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 40 14 independent independent JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 40 15 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 40 16 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 40 17 remoteness remoteness NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 40 18 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 40 19 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 40 20 population population NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 40 21 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 40 22 whereas whereas IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 40 23 density density NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 40 24 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 40 25 dependent dependent JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 40 26 transmission transmission NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 40 27 will will MD cord-000317-pixbry0c 40 28 cause cause VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 40 29 populations population NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 40 30 with with IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 40 31 many many JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 40 32 neighbours neighbour NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 40 33 to to TO cord-000317-pixbry0c 40 34 experience experience VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 40 35 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 40 36 higher high JJR cord-000317-pixbry0c 40 37 force force NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 40 38 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 40 39 infection infection NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 40 40 than than IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 40 41 those those DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 40 42 cities city NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 40 43 that that WDT cord-000317-pixbry0c 40 44 have have VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 40 45 few few JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 40 46 neighbours neighbour NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 40 47 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 41 1 Thus thus RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 41 2 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 41 3 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 41 4 densitydependent densitydependent JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 41 5 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 41 6 will will MD cord-000317-pixbry0c 41 7 predict predict VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 41 8 that that IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 41 9 isolated isolate VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 41 10 populations population NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 41 11 are be VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 41 12 less less RBR cord-000317-pixbry0c 41 13 likely likely JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 41 14 to to TO cord-000317-pixbry0c 41 15 become become VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 41 16 infected infected JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 41 17 than than IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 41 18 populations population NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 41 19 with with IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 41 20 many many JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 41 21 neighbours neighbour NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 41 22 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 41 23 or or CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 41 24 few few JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 41 25 very very RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 41 26 large large JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 41 27 neighbours neighbour NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 41 28 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 42 1 The the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 42 2 concepts concept NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 42 3 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 42 4 density density NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 42 5 dependence dependence NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 42 6 / / SYM cord-000317-pixbry0c 42 7 independence independence NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 42 8 have have VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 42 9 not not RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 42 10 only only RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 42 11 been be VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 42 12 used use VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 42 13 to to TO cord-000317-pixbry0c 42 14 model model VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 42 15 interactions interaction NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 42 16 between between IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 42 17 cities city NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 42 18 ; ; : cord-000317-pixbry0c 42 19 they -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 42 20 have have VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 42 21 also also RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 42 22 been be VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 42 23 used use VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 42 24 extensively extensively RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 42 25 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 42 26 individual individual JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 42 27 based base VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 42 28 models model NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 42 29 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 42 30 disease disease NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 42 31 spread spread VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 42 32 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 43 1 Most Most JJS cord-000317-pixbry0c 43 2 past past JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 43 3 studies study NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 43 4 tend tend VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 43 5 to to TO cord-000317-pixbry0c 43 6 assume assume VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 43 7 either either CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 43 8 density density NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 43 9 dependence dependence NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 43 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 43 11 e.g. e.g. RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 43 12 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 43 13 animal animal NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 43 14 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 43 15 ; ; : cord-000317-pixbry0c 43 16 [ [ -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 43 17 19 19 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 43 18 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 43 19 20 20 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 43 20 ] ] -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 43 21 ) ) -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 43 22 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 43 23 or or CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 43 24 density density NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 43 25 independence independence NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 43 26 ( ( -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 43 27 e.g. e.g. RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 43 28 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 43 29 most most JJS cord-000317-pixbry0c 43 30 human human JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 43 31 diseases disease NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 43 32 ) ) -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 43 33 [ [ -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 43 34 3 3 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 43 35 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 43 36 4 4 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 43 37 ] ] -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 43 38 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 44 1 Here here RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 44 2 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 44 3 we -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 44 4 explore explore VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 44 5 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 44 6 extent extent NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 44 7 to to TO cord-000317-pixbry0c 44 8 which which WDT cord-000317-pixbry0c 45 1 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 45 2 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 45 3 to to IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 45 4 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 45 5 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 45 6 ( ( -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 45 7 rather rather RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 45 8 than than IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 45 9 individualto individualto NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 45 10 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 45 11 individual individual NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 45 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 45 13 contacts contact NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 45 14 are be VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 45 15 density density NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 45 16 independent independent JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 45 17 by by IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 45 18 constructing construct VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 45 19 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 45 20 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 45 21 that that WDT cord-000317-pixbry0c 45 22 can can MD cord-000317-pixbry0c 45 23 capture capture VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 45 24 intermediate intermediate JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 45 25 levels level NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 45 26 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 45 27 density density NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 45 28 dependence dependence NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 45 29 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 46 1 In in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 46 2 this this DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 46 3 paper paper NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 46 4 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 46 5 we -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 46 6 analyse analyse VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 46 7 mortality mortality NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 46 8 datasets dataset NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 46 9 from from IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 46 10 England England NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 46 11 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 46 12 Wales Wales NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 46 13 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 46 14 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 46 15 United United NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 46 16 States States NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 46 17 from from IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 46 18 1918 1918 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 46 19 to to IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 46 20 1919 1919 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 46 21 to to TO cord-000317-pixbry0c 46 22 examine examine VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 46 23 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 46 24 pattern pattern NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 46 25 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 46 26 spatio spatio JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 46 27 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 46 28 temporal temporal JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 46 29 spread spread NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 46 30 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 46 31 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 46 32 extent extent NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 46 33 to to TO cord-000317-pixbry0c 46 34 which which WDT cord-000317-pixbry0c 46 35 gravity gravity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 46 36 models model NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 46 37 can can MD cord-000317-pixbry0c 46 38 reproduce reproduce VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 46 39 observed observed JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 46 40 trends trend NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 46 41 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 47 1 The the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 47 2 1918 1918 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 47 3 pandemic pandemic NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 47 4 constitutes constitute VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 47 5 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 47 6 rare rare JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 47 7 example example NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 47 8 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 47 9 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 47 10 well well RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 47 11 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 47 12 documented document VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 47 13 epidemic epidemic NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 47 14 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 47 15 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 47 16 largely largely RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 47 17 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 47 18 human human JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 47 19 population population NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 47 20 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 47 21 where where WRB cord-000317-pixbry0c 47 22 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 47 23 high high JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 47 24 mortality mortality NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 47 25 gives give VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 47 26 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 47 27 clear clear JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 47 28 incidence incidence NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 47 29 signal signal NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 47 30 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 47 31 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 47 32 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 47 33 therefore therefore RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 47 34 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 47 35 rare rare JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 47 36 opportunity opportunity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 47 37 to to TO cord-000317-pixbry0c 47 38 validate validate VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 47 39 models model NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 47 40 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 47 41 epidemiologically epidemiologically RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 47 42 relevant relevant JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 47 43 geographic geographic JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 47 44 coupling coupling NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 47 45 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 48 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 48 2 examine examine VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 48 3 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 48 4 effect effect NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 48 5 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 48 6 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 48 7 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 48 8 specific specific JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 48 9 characteristics characteristic NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 48 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 48 11 e.g. e.g. RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 48 12 location location NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 48 13 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 48 14 distance distance NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 48 15 from from IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 48 16 other other JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 48 17 cities city NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 48 18 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 48 19 population population NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 48 20 size size NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 48 21 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 48 22 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 48 23 number number NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 48 24 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 48 25 influenza influenza NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 48 26 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 48 27 related relate VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 48 28 deaths death NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 48 29 ) ) -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 48 30 on on IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 48 31 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 48 32 pattern pattern NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 48 33 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 48 34 spread spread NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 48 35 seen see VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 48 36 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 49 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 49 2 also also RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 49 3 investigate investigate VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 49 4 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 49 5 impact impact NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 49 6 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 49 7 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 49 8 distribution distribution NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 49 9 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 49 10 cities city NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 49 11 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 49 12 each each DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 49 13 country country NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 49 14 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 50 1 The the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 50 2 analysis analysis NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 50 3 provides provide VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 50 4 further further JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 50 5 insight insight NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 50 6 on on IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 50 7 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 50 8 spatial spatial JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 50 9 variation variation NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 50 10 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 50 11 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 50 12 spread spread NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 50 13 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 50 14 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 50 15 1918 1918 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 50 16 influenza influenza NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 50 17 pandemic pandemic NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 50 18 at at IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 50 19 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 50 20 country country NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 50 21 level level NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 50 22 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 50 23 much much JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 50 24 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 50 25 which which WDT cord-000317-pixbry0c 50 26 remained remain VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 50 27 unexplained unexplained JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 50 28 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 50 29 past past JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 50 30 studies study NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 50 31 [ [ -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 50 32 18 18 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 50 33 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 50 34 [ [ -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 50 35 21 21 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 50 36 ] ] -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 50 37 [ [ -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 50 38 22 22 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 50 39 ] ] -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 50 40 [ [ -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 50 41 23 23 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 50 42 ] ] -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 50 43 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 51 1 The the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 51 2 1918 1918 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 51 3 pandemic pandemic NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 51 4 H1N1 H1N1 NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 51 5 virus virus NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 51 6 appears appear VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 51 7 to to TO cord-000317-pixbry0c 51 8 have have VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 51 9 entered enter VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 51 10 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 51 11 general general JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 51 12 population population NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 51 13 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 51 14 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 51 15 UK UK NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 51 16 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 51 17 US US NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 51 18 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 51 19 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 51 20 spring spring NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 51 21 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 51 22 1918 1918 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 51 23 causing cause VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 51 24 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 51 25 reportedly reportedly RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 51 26 mild mild JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 51 27 disease disease NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 51 28 [ [ -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 51 29 24 24 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 51 30 ] ] -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 51 31 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 52 1 This this DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 52 2 early early JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 52 3 wave wave NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 52 4 was be VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 52 5 associated associate VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 52 6 with with IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 52 7 increased increase VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 52 8 mortality mortality NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 52 9 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 52 10 but but CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 52 11 was be VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 52 12 probably probably RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 52 13 only only RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 52 14 noticed notice VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 52 15 because because IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 52 16 influenza influenza NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 52 17 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 52 18 rare rare JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 52 19 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 52 20 summer summer NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 52 21 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 53 1 This this DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 53 2 epidemic epidemic NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 53 3 waned wane VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 53 4 later later RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 53 5 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 53 6 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 53 7 summer summer NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 53 8 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 53 9 but but CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 53 10 infection infection NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 53 11 reappeared reappear VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 53 12 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 53 13 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 53 14 autumn autumn NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 53 15 with with IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 53 16 much much JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 53 17 increased increase VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 53 18 mortality mortality NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 53 19 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 54 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 54 2 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 54 3 unclear unclear JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 54 4 whether whether IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 54 5 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 54 6 viruses virus NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 54 7 causing cause VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 54 8 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 54 9 spring spring NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 54 10 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 54 11 summer summer NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 54 12 waves wave NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 54 13 were be VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 54 14 closely closely RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 54 15 related relate VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 54 16 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 54 17 but but CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 54 18 there there EX cord-000317-pixbry0c 54 19 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 54 20 increasing increase VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 54 21 evidence evidence NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 54 22 that that IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 54 23 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 54 24 spring spring NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 54 25 wave wave NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 54 26 gave give VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 54 27 immunological immunological JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 54 28 protection protection NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 54 29 against against IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 54 30 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 54 31 autumn autumn NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 54 32 wave wave NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 54 33 at at IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 54 34 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 54 35 population population NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 54 36 level level NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 54 37 [ [ -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 54 38 25 25 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 54 39 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 54 40 26 26 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 54 41 ] ] -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 54 42 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 55 1 By by IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 55 2 September September NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 55 3 1918 1918 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 55 4 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 55 5 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 55 6 pandemic pandemic NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 55 7 was be VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 55 8 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 55 9 prominent prominent JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 55 10 global global JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 55 11 phenomenon phenomenon NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 55 12 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 56 1 The the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 56 2 autumn autumn NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 56 3 wave wave NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 56 4 was be VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 56 5 virtually virtually RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 56 6 universal universal JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 56 7 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 56 8 albeit albeit IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 56 9 with with IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 56 10 some some DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 56 11 variation variation NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 56 12 between between IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 56 13 countries country NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 56 14 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 56 15 precise precise JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 56 16 timing timing NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 56 17 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 57 1 In in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 57 2 both both CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 57 3 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 57 4 UK UK NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 57 5 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 57 6 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 57 7 US US NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 57 8 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 57 9 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 57 10 third third JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 57 11 wave wave NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 57 12 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 57 13 influenza influenza NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 57 14 occurred occur VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 57 15 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 57 16 early early JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 57 17 1919 1919 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 58 1 although although IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 58 2 with with IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 58 3 greater great JJR cord-000317-pixbry0c 58 4 heterogeneity heterogeneity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 58 5 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 58 6 mortality mortality NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 58 7 rates rate NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 58 8 between between IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 58 9 cities city NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 58 10 [ [ -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 58 11 24 24 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 58 12 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 58 13 27 27 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 58 14 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 58 15 28 28 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 58 16 ] ] -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 58 17 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 59 1 US US NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 59 2 cities city NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 59 3 had have VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 59 4 more more JJR cord-000317-pixbry0c 59 5 variation variation NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 59 6 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 59 7 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 59 8 severity severity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 59 9 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 59 10 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 59 11 major major JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 59 12 wave wave NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 59 13 than than IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 59 14 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 59 15 UK UK NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 59 16 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 59 17 probably probably RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 59 18 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 59 19 part part NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 59 20 because because IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 59 21 some some DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 59 22 enacted enact VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 59 23 more more RBR cord-000317-pixbry0c 59 24 stringent stringent JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 59 25 non non JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 59 26 - - JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 59 27 pharmaceutical pharmaceutical JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 59 28 interventions intervention NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 59 29 to to TO cord-000317-pixbry0c 59 30 mitigate mitigate VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 59 31 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 59 32 epidemic epidemic NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 59 33 [ [ -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 59 34 27 27 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 59 35 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 59 36 28 28 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 59 37 ] ] -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 59 38 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 60 1 The the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 60 2 third third JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 60 3 wave wave NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 60 4 was be VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 60 5 less less RBR cord-000317-pixbry0c 60 6 pronounced pronounced JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 60 7 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 60 8 US US NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 60 9 cities city NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 60 10 than than IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 60 11 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 60 12 England England NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 60 13 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 60 14 Wales Wales NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 60 15 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 60 16 again again RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 60 17 perhaps perhaps RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 60 18 partly partly RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 60 19 because because IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 60 20 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 60 21 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 60 22 effect effect NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 60 23 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 60 24 interventions intervention NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 60 25 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 61 1 The the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 61 2 England England NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 61 3 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 61 4 Wales Wales NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 61 5 dataset dataset NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 61 6 shown show VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 61 7 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 61 8 figure figure NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 61 9 1a 1a CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 61 10 was be VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 61 11 published publish VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 61 12 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 61 13 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 61 14 Supplement Supplement NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 61 15 to to IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 61 16 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 61 17 81st 81st JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 61 18 Registrar Registrar NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 61 19 General General NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 61 20 Report Report NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 61 21 [ [ -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 61 22 29 29 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 61 23 ] ] -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 61 24 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 62 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 62 2 provides provide VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 62 3 weekly weekly JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 62 4 death death NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 62 5 counts count NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 62 6 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 62 7 annualized annualize VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 62 8 mortality mortality NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 62 9 rates rate NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 62 10 per per IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 62 11 1000 1000 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 62 12 from from IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 62 13 83 83 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 62 14 county county NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 62 15 boroughs borough NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 62 16 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 62 17 84 84 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 62 18 municipal municipal JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 62 19 boroughs borough NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 62 20 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 62 21 71 71 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 62 22 urban urban JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 62 23 districts district NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 62 24 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 62 25 three three CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 62 26 unclassified unclassified JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 62 27 urban urban JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 62 28 centres centre NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 62 29 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 62 30 England England NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 62 31 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 62 32 Wales Wales NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 62 33 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 62 34 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 62 35 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 62 36 46 46 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 62 37 week week NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 62 38 interval interval NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 62 39 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 62 40 29 29 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 62 41 June June NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 62 42 1918 1918 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 62 43 -10 -10 IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 62 44 May May NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 62 45 1919 1919 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 62 46 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 63 1 The the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 63 2 first first JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 63 3 10 10 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 63 4 weeks week NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 63 5 are be VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 63 6 designated designate VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 63 7 as as IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 63 8 wave wave NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 63 9 1 1 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 63 10 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 63 11 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 63 12 next next JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 63 13 19 19 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 63 14 as as IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 63 15 wave wave NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 63 16 2 2 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 63 17 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 63 18 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 63 19 last last JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 63 20 17 17 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 63 21 as as IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 63 22 wave wave NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 63 23 3 3 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 63 24 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 64 1 Our -PRON- PRP$ cord-000317-pixbry0c 64 2 analysis analysis NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 64 3 focuses focus VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 64 4 on on IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 64 5 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 64 6 second second JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 64 7 wave wave NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 64 8 because because IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 64 9 it -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 64 10 occurred occur VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 64 11 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 64 12 all all DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 64 13 cities city NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 64 14 ( ( -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 64 15 unlike unlike IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 64 16 wave wave NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 64 17 3 3 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 64 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 64 19 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 64 20 because because IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 64 21 recording recording NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 64 22 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 64 23 mortality mortality NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 64 24 had have VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 64 25 begun begin VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 64 26 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 64 27 all all DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 64 28 cities city NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 64 29 before before IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 64 30 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-000317-pixbry0c 64 31 arrival arrival NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 64 32 ( ( -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 64 33 unlike unlike IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 64 34 wave wave NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 64 35 1 1 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 64 36 ) ) -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 64 37 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 65 1 In in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 65 2 addition addition NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 65 3 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 65 4 reporting report VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 65 5 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 65 6 influenza influenza NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 65 7 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 65 8 influenza influenza NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 65 9 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 65 10 related relate VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 65 11 mortality mortality NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 65 12 changed change VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 65 13 between between IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 65 14 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 65 15 first first JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 65 16 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 65 17 second second JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 65 18 waves wave NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 65 19 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 66 1 Point point NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 66 2 locations location NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 66 3 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 66 4 all all DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 66 5 urban urban JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 66 6 centres centre NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 66 7 were be VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 66 8 determined determine VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 66 9 from from IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 66 10 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 66 11 current current JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 66 12 or or CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 66 13 historical historical JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 66 14 records record NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 66 15 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 66 16 with with IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 66 17 Euclidean euclidean JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 66 18 distance distance NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 66 19 used use VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 66 20 to to TO cord-000317-pixbry0c 66 21 quantify quantify VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 66 22 inter inter JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 66 23 - - JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 66 24 centre centre JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 66 25 separation separation NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 66 26 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 67 1 Further further JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 67 2 information information NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 67 3 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 67 4 given give VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 67 5 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 67 6 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 67 7 electronic electronic JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 67 8 supplementary supplementary JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 67 9 material material NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 67 10 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 68 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 68 2 compiled compile VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 68 3 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 68 4 US US NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 68 5 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 68 6 dataset dataset NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 68 7 ( ( -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 68 8 figure figure NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 68 9 1b 1b CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 68 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 68 11 from from IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 68 12 five five CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 68 13 publications publication NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 68 14 reporting report VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 68 15 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 68 16 Weekly Weekly NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 68 17 Health Health NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 68 18 Index Index NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 68 19 as as IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 68 20 collated collate VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 68 21 by by IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 68 22 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 68 23 Bureau Bureau NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 68 24 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 68 25 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 68 26 Census Census NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 68 27 [ [ -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 68 28 24 24 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 68 29 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 68 30 [ [ -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 68 31 30 30 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 68 32 ] ] -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 68 33 [ [ -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 68 34 31 31 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 68 35 ] ] -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 68 36 [ [ -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 68 37 32 32 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 68 38 ] ] -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 68 39 [ [ -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 68 40 33 33 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 68 41 ] ] -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 68 42 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 69 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 69 2 covers cover VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 69 3 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 69 4 period period NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 69 5 14 14 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 69 6 September September NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 69 7 1918 1918 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 69 8 to to IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 69 9 15 15 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 69 10 March March NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 69 11 1919 1919 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 69 12 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 69 13 contains contain VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 69 14 weekly weekly JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 69 15 pneumonia pneumonia NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 69 16 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 69 17 influenza influenza NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 69 18 death death NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 69 19 counts count VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 69 20 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 69 21 47 47 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 69 22 cities city NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 69 23 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 69 24 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 69 25 US US NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 69 26 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 70 1 The the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 70 2 US US NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 70 3 data datum NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 70 4 therefore therefore RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 70 5 covers cover VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 70 6 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 70 7 period period NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 70 8 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 70 9 two two CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 70 10 waves wave NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 70 11 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 70 12 with with IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 70 13 not not RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 70 14 all all DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 70 15 cities city NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 70 16 experiencing experience VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 70 17 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 70 18 later later JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 70 19 wave wave NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 70 20 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 71 1 There there EX cord-000317-pixbry0c 71 2 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 71 3 very very RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 71 4 good good JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 71 5 agreement agreement NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 71 6 between between IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 71 7 different different JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 71 8 sources source NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 71 9 where where WRB cord-000317-pixbry0c 71 10 they -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 71 11 overlap overlap VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 71 12 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 72 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 72 2 used use VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 72 3 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 72 4 Euclidean euclidean JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 72 5 distance distance NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 72 6 between between IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 72 7 cities city NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 72 8 ( ( -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 72 9 accounting account VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 72 10 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 72 11 curvature curvature NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 72 12 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 72 13 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 72 14 Earth Earth NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 72 15 ) ) -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 72 16 to to TO cord-000317-pixbry0c 72 17 measure measure VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 72 18 separation separation NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 72 19 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 73 1 Further further JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 73 2 information information NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 73 3 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 73 4 given give VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 73 5 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 73 6 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 73 7 electronic electronic JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 73 8 supplementary supplementary JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 73 9 material material NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 73 10 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 74 1 The the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 74 2 analysis analysis NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 74 3 requires require VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 74 4 an an DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 74 5 estimate estimate NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 74 6 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 74 7 when when WRB cord-000317-pixbry0c 74 8 each each DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 74 9 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 74 10 became become VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 74 11 infected infect VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 74 12 to to TO cord-000317-pixbry0c 74 13 allow allow VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 74 14 potential potential JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 74 15 sources source NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 74 16 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 74 17 that that DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 74 18 infection infection NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 74 19 to to TO cord-000317-pixbry0c 74 20 be be VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 74 21 identified identify VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 74 22 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 75 1 For for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 75 2 each each DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 75 3 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 75 4 infected infect VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 75 5 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 75 6 week week NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 75 7 t t NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 75 8 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 75 9 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 75 10 candidate candidate NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 75 11 infectors infector NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 75 12 are be VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 75 13 those those DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 75 14 infected infect VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 75 15 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 75 16 any any DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 75 17 week week NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 75 18 before before IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 75 19 t. t. NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 75 20 We -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 75 21 define define VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 75 22 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 75 23 infection infection NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 75 24 week week NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 75 25 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 76 1 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 76 2 i i NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 76 3 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 76 4 t t NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 76 5 i i PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 76 6 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 76 7 to to TO cord-000317-pixbry0c 76 8 be be VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 76 9 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 76 10 first first JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 76 11 that that WDT cord-000317-pixbry0c 76 12 meets meet VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 76 13 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 76 14 set set NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 76 15 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 76 16 conditions condition NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 76 17 on on IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 76 18 mortality mortality NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 76 19 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 76 20 weeks week NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 77 1 t t NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 78 1 i i PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 78 2 þ þ NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 78 3 1 1 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 78 4 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 79 1 t t NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 79 2 i i PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 79 3 þ þ NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 79 4 2 2 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 80 1 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 80 2 t t NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 80 3 i i PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 80 4 þ þ NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 81 1 3 3 LS cord-000317-pixbry0c 81 2 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 82 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 82 2 use use VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 82 3 mortality mortality NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 82 4 values value NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 82 5 ahead ahead RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 82 6 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 82 7 t t NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 82 8 i i PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 82 9 to to TO cord-000317-pixbry0c 82 10 include include VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 82 11 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 82 12 time time NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 82 13 from from IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 82 14 infection infection NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 82 15 to to IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 82 16 death death NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 82 17 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 83 1 A a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 83 2 week week NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 83 3 could could MD cord-000317-pixbry0c 83 4 be be VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 83 5 designated designate VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 83 6 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 83 7 infection infection NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 83 8 week week NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 83 9 if if IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 83 10 either either DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 83 11 ( ( -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 83 12 or or CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 83 13 both both DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 83 14 ) ) -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 83 15 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 83 16 two two CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 83 17 sets set NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 83 18 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 83 19 criteria criterion NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 83 20 were be VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 83 21 met meet VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 83 22 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 83 23 mortality mortality NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 83 24 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 83 25 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 83 26 following follow VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 83 27 weeks week NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 83 28 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 84 1 The the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 84 2 first first JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 84 3 set set NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 84 4 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 84 5 criteria criterion NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 84 6 required require VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 84 7 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 84 8 mortality mortality NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 84 9 rate rate NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 84 10 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 85 1 week week NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 85 2 t t NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 86 1 i i PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 86 2 þ þ NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 86 3 1 1 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 87 1 to to TO cord-000317-pixbry0c 87 2 be be VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 87 3 above above IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 87 4 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 87 5 certain certain JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 87 6 threshold threshold NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 87 7 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 87 8 to to TO cord-000317-pixbry0c 87 9 have have VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 87 10 increased increase VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 87 11 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 87 12 t t NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 88 1 i i PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 88 2 þ þ NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 88 3 2 2 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 88 4 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 88 5 to to TO cord-000317-pixbry0c 88 6 be be VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 88 7 above above IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 88 8 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 88 9 higher high JJR cord-000317-pixbry0c 88 10 threshold threshold NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 88 11 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 88 12 t t NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 89 1 i i PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 89 2 þ þ NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 89 3 3 3 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 89 4 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 90 1 These these DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 90 2 criteria criterion NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 90 3 are be VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 90 4 intended intend VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 90 5 to to TO cord-000317-pixbry0c 90 6 ensure ensure VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 90 7 that that IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 90 8 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 90 9 epidemic epidemic NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 90 10 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 90 11 that that DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 90 12 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 90 13 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 90 14 patently patently RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 90 15 increasing increase VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 90 16 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 91 1 The the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 91 2 second second JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 91 3 set set NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 91 4 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 91 5 criteria criterion NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 91 6 was be VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 91 7 designed design VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 91 8 to to TO cord-000317-pixbry0c 91 9 capture capture VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 91 10 cities city NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 91 11 where where WRB cord-000317-pixbry0c 91 12 there there EX cord-000317-pixbry0c 91 13 was be VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 91 14 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 91 15 rapid rapid JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 91 16 onset onset NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 91 17 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 91 18 increased increase VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 91 19 influenza influenza NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 91 20 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 91 21 related relate VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 91 22 mortality mortality NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 91 23 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 92 1 They -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 92 2 therefore therefore RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 92 3 used use VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 92 4 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 92 5 higher high JJR cord-000317-pixbry0c 92 6 threshold threshold NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 92 7 on on IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 92 8 mortality mortality NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 92 9 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 92 10 week week NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 93 1 t t NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 94 1 i i PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 94 2 þ þ NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 94 3 1 1 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 94 4 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 94 5 but but CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 94 6 less less RBR cord-000317-pixbry0c 94 7 strict strict JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 94 8 conditions condition NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 94 9 on on IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 94 10 rate rate NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 94 11 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 94 12 growth growth NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 94 13 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 94 14 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 94 15 following following JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 94 16 two two CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 94 17 weeks week NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 94 18 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 95 1 The the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 95 2 week week NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 95 3 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 95 4 infection infection NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 95 5 determined determine VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 95 6 was be VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 95 7 found find VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 95 8 to to TO cord-000317-pixbry0c 95 9 be be VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 95 10 relatively relatively RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 95 11 robust robust JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 95 12 to to IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 95 13 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 95 14 precise precise JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 95 15 choice choice NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 95 16 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 95 17 thresholds threshold NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 95 18 used use VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 95 19 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 96 1 For for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 96 2 further further JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 96 3 details detail NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 96 4 on on IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 96 5 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 96 6 algorithm algorithm NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 96 7 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 96 8 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 96 9 spatio spatio JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 96 10 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 96 11 temporal temporal JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 96 12 display display NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 96 13 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 96 14 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 96 15 result result NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 96 16 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 96 17 see see VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 96 18 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 96 19 electronic electronic JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 96 20 supplementary supplementary JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 96 21 material material NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 96 22 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 97 1 In in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 97 2 formulating formulate VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 97 3 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-000317-pixbry0c 97 4 inter inter JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 97 5 - - JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 97 6 city city JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 97 7 transmission transmission NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 97 8 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 97 9 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 97 10 we -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 97 11 take take VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 97 12 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 97 13 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 97 14 as as IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 97 15 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-000317-pixbry0c 97 16 unit unit NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 97 17 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 97 18 study study NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 97 19 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 98 1 Each each DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 98 2 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 98 3 N n CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 98 4 cities city NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 98 5 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 98 6 i i PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 98 7 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 98 8 has have VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 98 9 an an DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 98 10 infection infection NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 98 11 time time NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 98 12 t t NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 98 13 i i NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 98 14 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 98 15 an an DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 98 16 invariant invariant JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 98 17 population population NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 98 18 size size NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 98 19 P p NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 98 20 i i NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 98 21 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 98 22 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 98 23 time time NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 98 24 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 98 25 varying vary VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 98 26 mortality mortality NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 98 27 rate rate NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 98 28 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 98 29 r r NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 98 30 i i PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 98 31 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 98 32 t t NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 98 33 at at IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 98 34 time time NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 98 35 t. t. NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 98 36 Infected Infected NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 98 37 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 98 38 i i PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 98 39 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 98 40 separated separate VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 98 41 from from IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 98 42 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 98 43 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 98 44 j j NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 98 45 by by IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 98 46 distance distance NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 98 47 d d NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 98 48 ij ij NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 98 49 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 99 1 Each each DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 99 2 week week NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 99 3 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 99 4 each each DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 99 5 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 99 6 can can MD cord-000317-pixbry0c 99 7 be be VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 99 8 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 99 9 one one CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 99 10 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 99 11 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 99 12 three three CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 99 13 disease disease NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 99 14 states state NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 99 15 : : : cord-000317-pixbry0c 99 16 Susceptible susceptible JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 99 17 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 99 18 Latent Latent NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 99 19 or or CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 99 20 Infectious Infectious NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 99 21 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 100 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 100 2 assume assume VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 100 3 that that IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 100 4 all all DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 100 5 cities city NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 100 6 are be VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 100 7 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 100 8 at at IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 100 9 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 100 10 start start NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 100 11 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 100 12 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 100 13 wave wave NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 100 14 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 100 15 they -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 100 16 are be VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 100 17 latently latently RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 100 18 infected infect VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 100 19 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 100 20 one one CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 100 21 week week NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 100 22 on on IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 100 23 infection infection NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 100 24 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 100 25 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 100 26 that that IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 100 27 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 100 28 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 100 29 becomes become VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 100 30 infectious infectious JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 100 31 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 100 32 week week NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 100 33 after after IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 100 34 it -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 100 35 becomes become VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 100 36 infected infected JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 100 37 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 101 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 101 2 assume assume VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 101 3 that that IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 101 4 all all DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 101 5 transmission transmission NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 101 6 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 101 7 endogenous endogenous JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 101 8 to to IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 101 9 England England NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 101 10 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 101 11 Wales Wales NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 101 12 or or CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 101 13 US US NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 101 14 after after IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 101 15 external external JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 101 16 seeding seeding NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 101 17 to to IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 101 18 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 101 19 first first JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 101 20 infected infected JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 101 21 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 101 22 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 101 23 each each DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 101 24 territory territory NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 101 25 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 102 1 If if IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 102 2 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 102 3 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 102 4 becomes become VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 102 5 infected infect VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 102 6 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 102 7 week week NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 103 1 t t NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 103 2 i i NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 103 3 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 103 4 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 103 5 candidate candidate NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 103 6 infectors infector NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 103 7 are be VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 103 8 only only RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 103 9 those those DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 103 10 cities city NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 103 11 that that WDT cord-000317-pixbry0c 103 12 are be VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 103 13 infectious infectious JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 103 14 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 103 15 week week NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 103 16 t t NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 103 17 i i PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 103 18 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 104 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 104 2 assume assume VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 104 3 that that IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 104 4 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 104 5 transmission transmission NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 104 6 parameters parameter NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 104 7 are be VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 104 8 constant constant JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 104 9 through through IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 104 10 time time NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 104 11 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 105 1 The the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 105 2 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 105 3 formulation formulation NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 105 4 aims aim VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 105 5 to to TO cord-000317-pixbry0c 105 6 capture capture VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 105 7 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 105 8 effect effect NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 105 9 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 105 10 distance distance NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 105 11 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 105 12 population population NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 105 13 size size NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 105 14 on on IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 105 15 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 105 16 connectivity connectivity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 105 17 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 105 18 cities city NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 105 19 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 106 1 Three three CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 106 2 modes mode NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 106 3 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 106 4 spatial spatial JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 106 5 transmission transmission NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 106 6 are be VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 106 7 considered consider VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 106 8 : : : cord-000317-pixbry0c 106 9 density density NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 106 10 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 106 11 independent independent JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 106 12 connectivity connectivity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 106 13 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 106 14 densitydependent densitydependent JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 106 15 connectivity connectivity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 106 16 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 106 17 an an DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 106 18 intermediate intermediate JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 106 19 form form NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 106 20 where where WRB cord-000317-pixbry0c 106 21 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 106 22 degree degree NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 106 23 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 106 24 density density NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 106 25 dependence dependence NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 106 26 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 106 27 estimated estimate VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 106 28 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 107 1 The the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 107 2 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 107 3 also also RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 107 4 examines examine VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 107 5 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 107 6 different different JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 107 7 assumptions assumption NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 107 8 regarding regard VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 107 9 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 107 10 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 107 11 's 's POS cord-000317-pixbry0c 107 12 infectivity infectivity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 107 13 over over IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 107 14 time time NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 107 15 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 108 1 The the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 108 2 force force NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 108 3 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 108 4 infection infection NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 108 5 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 108 6 l l NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 108 7 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 108 8 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 108 9 hazard hazard NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 108 10 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 108 11 infection infection NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 108 12 from from IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 108 13 one one CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 108 14 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 108 15 to to IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 108 16 another another DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 108 17 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 109 1 From from IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 109 2 infected infected JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 109 3 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 109 4 i i PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 109 5 on on IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 109 6 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 109 7 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 109 8 j j NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 109 9 at at IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 109 10 time time NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 109 11 t t NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 109 12 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 109 13 it -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 109 14 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 109 15 : : : cord-000317-pixbry0c 109 16 where where WRB cord-000317-pixbry0c 109 17 source source NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 109 18 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 109 19 population population NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 109 20 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 109 21 distance distance NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 109 22 are be VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 109 23 normalized normalize VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 109 24 together together RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 109 25 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 110 1 n n NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 110 2 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 110 3 m m NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 110 4 are be VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 110 5 estimated estimate VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 110 6 parameters parameter NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 110 7 on on IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 110 8 source source NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 110 9 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 110 10 destination destination NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 110 11 population population NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 110 12 sizes size NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 110 13 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 110 14 respectively respectively RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 110 15 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 111 1 d d NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 111 2 ij ij NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 111 3 represents represent VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 111 4 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 111 5 distance distance NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 111 6 between between IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 111 7 cities city NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 111 8 with with IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 111 9 power power NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 111 10 parameter parameter NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 111 11 g g NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 111 12 to to TO cord-000317-pixbry0c 111 13 be be VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 111 14 estimated estimate VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 111 15 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 112 1 w w NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 112 2 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 112 3 an an DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 112 4 estimated estimate VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 112 5 parameter parameter NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 112 6 relating relate VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 112 7 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 112 8 infectivity infectivity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 112 9 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 112 10 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 112 11 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 112 12 to to IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 112 13 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-000317-pixbry0c 112 14 mortality mortality NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 112 15 rate rate NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 112 16 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 113 1 When when WRB cord-000317-pixbry0c 113 2 w w NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 113 3 ¼ ¼ NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 113 4 1 1 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 113 5 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 113 6 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 113 7 infectiousness infectiousness NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 113 8 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 113 9 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 113 10 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 113 11 at at IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 113 12 time time NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 113 13 t t NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 113 14 i i PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 113 15 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 113 16 proportional proportional JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 113 17 to to IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 113 18 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 113 19 death death NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 113 20 rate rate NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 113 21 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 113 22 that that DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 113 23 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 113 24 at at IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 114 1 time time NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 114 2 t t NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 115 1 i i PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 115 2 þ þ NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 115 3 1 1 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 115 4 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 116 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 116 2 use use VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 116 3 one one CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 116 4 week week NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 116 5 as as IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 116 6 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 116 7 lag lag NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 116 8 from from IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 116 9 infection infection NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 116 10 to to IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 116 11 death death NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 116 12 [ [ -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 116 13 24 24 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 116 14 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 116 15 [ [ -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 116 16 34 34 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 116 17 ] ] -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 116 18 [ [ -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 116 19 35 35 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 116 20 ] ] -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 116 21 [ [ -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 116 22 36 36 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 116 23 ] ] -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 116 24 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 117 1 A a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 117 2 value value NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 117 3 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 117 4 w w NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 117 5 ¼ ¼ NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 117 6 0 0 NFP cord-000317-pixbry0c 117 7 gives give VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 117 8 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 117 9 flat flat JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 117 10 infectiousness infectiousness NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 117 11 profile profile NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 117 12 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 117 13 independent independent JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 117 14 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 117 15 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 117 16 death death NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 117 17 rate rate NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 117 18 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 117 19 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 117 20 source source NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 117 21 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 117 22 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 118 1 Intermediate intermediate JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 118 2 values value NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 118 3 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 118 4 w w NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 118 5 give give VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 118 6 variation variation NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 118 7 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 118 8 infectiousness infectiousness NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 118 9 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 118 10 which which WDT cord-000317-pixbry0c 118 11 scales scale VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 118 12 sub sub NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 118 13 - - JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 118 14 linearly linearly RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 118 15 with with IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 118 16 weekly weekly JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 118 17 mortality mortality NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 118 18 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 119 1 Estimating Estimating NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 119 2 w w NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 119 3 allows allow VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 119 4 us -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 119 5 to to TO cord-000317-pixbry0c 119 6 assess assess VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 119 7 whether whether IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 119 8 mortality mortality NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 119 9 rate rate NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 119 10 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 119 11 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 119 12 good good JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 119 13 proxy proxy NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 119 14 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 119 15 infectiousness infectiousness NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 119 16 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 119 17 an an DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 119 18 infected infected JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 119 19 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 119 20 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 120 1 b b LS cord-000317-pixbry0c 120 2 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 120 3 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 120 4 time time NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 120 5 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 120 6 invariant invariant JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 120 7 estimated estimate VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 120 8 infectivity infectivity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 120 9 term term NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 120 10 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 121 1 Parameter parameter NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 121 2 1 1 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 121 3 describes describe VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 121 4 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 121 5 strength strength NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 121 6 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 121 7 connection connection NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 121 8 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 121 9 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 121 10 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 121 11 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 121 12 to to IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 121 13 all all DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 121 14 possible possible JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 121 15 infectors infector NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 121 16 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 122 1 1 1 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 122 2 ¼ ¼ CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 122 3 0 0 NFP cord-000317-pixbry0c 122 4 gives give VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 122 5 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 122 6 density density NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 122 7 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 122 8 dependent dependent JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 122 9 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 122 10 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 122 11 1 1 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 122 12 ¼ ¼ CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 122 13 1 1 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 122 14 gives give VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 122 15 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 122 16 density density NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 122 17 independent independent JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 122 18 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 122 19 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 123 1 By by IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 123 2 allowing allow VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 123 3 1 1 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 123 4 to to TO cord-000317-pixbry0c 123 5 vary vary VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 123 6 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 123 7 we -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 123 8 allow allow VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 123 9 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 123 10 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 123 11 to to TO cord-000317-pixbry0c 123 12 estimate estimate VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 123 13 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 123 14 degree degree NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 123 15 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 123 16 density density NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 123 17 dependence dependence NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 123 18 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 123 19 connectedness connectedness NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 123 20 between between IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 123 21 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 123 22 cities city NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 123 23 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 124 1 The the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 124 2 total total JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 124 3 force force NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 124 4 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 124 5 infection infection NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 124 6 on on IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 124 7 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 124 8 j j NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 124 9 at at IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 124 10 time time NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 124 11 t t NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 124 12 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 124 13 given give VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 124 14 by by IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 124 15 : : : cord-000317-pixbry0c 124 16 where where WRB cord-000317-pixbry0c 124 17 Since since IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 124 18 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 124 19 force force NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 124 20 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 124 21 infection infection NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 124 22 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 124 23 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 124 24 hazard hazard NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 124 25 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 124 26 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 124 27 probability probability NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 124 28 that that IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 124 29 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 124 30 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 124 31 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 124 32 j j NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 124 33 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 124 34 infected infect VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 124 35 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 124 36 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 124 37 week week NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 124 38 t t NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 124 39 j j NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 124 40 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 124 41 given give VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 124 42 by by IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 124 43 : : : cord-000317-pixbry0c 124 44 t¼0 t¼0 NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 125 1 Àl Àl NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 125 2 j;t j;t NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 125 3 ! ! . cord-000317-pixbry0c 126 1 ð1 ð1 NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 126 2 À À NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 126 3 expðÀl expðÀl NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 127 1 j;t j;t NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 128 1 j j NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 128 2 ÞÞ ÞÞ NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 129 1 : : : cord-000317-pixbry0c 129 2 We -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 129 3 used use VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 129 4 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 129 5 Bayesian bayesian JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 129 6 framework framework NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 129 7 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 129 8 statistical statistical JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 129 9 inference inference NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 129 10 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 130 1 The the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 130 2 log log NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 130 3 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 130 4 likelihood likelihood NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 130 5 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 130 6 given give VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 130 7 by by IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 130 8 : : : cord-000317-pixbry0c 131 1 ln ln NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 131 2 P P NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 131 3 t t NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 131 4 j j NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 131 5 À à NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 131 6 Á á NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 132 1 : : : cord-000317-pixbry0c 132 2 We -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 132 3 explore explore VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 132 4 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 132 5 joint joint JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 132 6 posterior posterior JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 132 7 distribution distribution NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 132 8 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 132 9 parameters parameter NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 132 10 by by IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 132 11 Markov Markov NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 132 12 Chain Chain NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 132 13 Monte Monte NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 132 14 Carlo Carlo NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 132 15 ( ( -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 132 16 MCMC MCMC NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 132 17 ) ) -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 132 18 sampling sampling NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 132 19 [ [ -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 132 20 37 37 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 132 21 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 132 22 38 38 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 132 23 ] ] -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 132 24 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 133 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 133 2 sampled sample VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 133 3 parameters parameter NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 133 4 on on IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 133 5 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 133 6 logscale logscale NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 133 7 using use VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 133 8 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 133 9 random random JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 133 10 walk walk NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 133 11 update update NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 133 12 scheme scheme NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 133 13 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 134 1 b b NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 134 2 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 134 3 g g NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 134 4 were be VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 134 5 jointly jointly RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 134 6 updated update VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 134 7 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 134 8 while while IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 134 9 1 1 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 134 10 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 134 11 m m NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 134 12 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 134 13 n n NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 134 14 were be VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 134 15 updated update VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 134 16 singly singly RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 134 17 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 135 1 Five five CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 135 2 MCMC MCMC NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 135 3 chains chain NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 135 4 were be VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 135 5 started start VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 135 6 from from IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 135 7 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 135 8 variety variety NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 135 9 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 135 10 start start NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 135 11 points point NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 135 12 within within IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 135 13 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 135 14 credible credible JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 135 15 range range NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 135 16 to to TO cord-000317-pixbry0c 135 17 assess assess VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 135 18 convergence convergence NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 135 19 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 136 1 Convergence Convergence NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 136 2 was be VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 136 3 achieved achieve VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 136 4 within within IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 136 5 100 100 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 136 6 000 000 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 136 7 iterations iteration NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 136 8 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 136 9 all all DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 136 10 models model NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 136 11 from from IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 136 12 all all DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 136 13 starting start VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 136 14 parameter parameter NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 136 15 values value NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 136 16 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 137 1 For for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 137 2 each each DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 137 3 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 137 4 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 137 5 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 137 6 chain chain NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 137 7 was be VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 137 8 run run VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 137 9 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 137 10 500 500 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 137 11 000 000 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 137 12 iterations iteration NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 137 13 including include VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 137 14 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 137 15 burn burn NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 137 16 in in RP cord-000317-pixbry0c 137 17 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 137 18 100 100 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 137 19 000 000 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 137 20 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 138 1 Parameter parameter NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 138 2 estimates estimate NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 138 3 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 138 4 equal equal JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 138 5 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 138 6 tailed tailed JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 138 7 95 95 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 138 8 per per IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 138 9 cent cent NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 138 10 credible credible JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 138 11 intervals interval NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 138 12 were be VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 138 13 obtained obtain VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 138 14 from from IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 138 15 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 138 16 posterior posterior JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 138 17 distribution distribution NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 138 18 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 138 19 80 80 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 138 20 000 000 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 138 21 values value NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 138 22 thinned thin VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 138 23 from from IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 138 24 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 138 25 last last JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 138 26 400 400 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 138 27 000 000 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 138 28 samples sample NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 138 29 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 138 30 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 138 31 MCMC MCMC NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 138 32 chains chain NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 138 33 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 139 1 To to TO cord-000317-pixbry0c 139 2 investigate investigate VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 139 3 which which WDT cord-000317-pixbry0c 139 4 components component NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 139 5 are be VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 139 6 most most RBS cord-000317-pixbry0c 139 7 important important JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 139 8 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 139 9 describing describe VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 139 10 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 139 11 spread spread NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 139 12 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 139 13 influenza influenza NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 139 14 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 139 15 we -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 139 16 consider consider VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 139 17 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 139 18 set set NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 139 19 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 139 20 simplified simplified JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 139 21 variants variant NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 139 22 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 139 23 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 139 24 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 139 25 presented present VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 139 26 above above RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 139 27 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 140 1 In in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 140 2 those those DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 140 3 variants variant NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 140 4 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 140 5 each each DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 140 6 parameter parameter NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 140 7 can can MD cord-000317-pixbry0c 140 8 be be VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 140 9 either either RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 140 10 fixed fix VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 140 11 at at IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 140 12 0 0 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 140 13 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 140 14 at at IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 140 15 1 1 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 140 16 or or CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 140 17 be be VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 140 18 estimated estimate VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 140 19 by by IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 140 20 MCMC MCMC NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 140 21 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 141 1 For for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 141 2 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 141 3 full full JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 141 4 comparison comparison NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 141 5 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 141 6 each each DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 141 7 component component NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 141 8 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 141 9 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 141 10 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 141 11 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 141 12 see see VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 141 13 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 141 14 electronic electronic JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 141 15 supplementary supplementary JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 141 16 material material NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 141 17 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 142 1 The the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 142 2 Deviance deviance NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 142 3 Information information NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 142 4 Criterion Criterion NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 142 5 ( ( -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 142 6 DIC DIC NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 142 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 142 8 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 142 9 used use VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 142 10 to to TO cord-000317-pixbry0c 142 11 compare compare VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 142 12 models model NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 142 13 [ [ -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 142 14 39 39 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 142 15 ] ] -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 142 16 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 143 1 This this DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 143 2 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 143 3 calculated calculate VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 143 4 using use VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 143 5 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 143 6 median median JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 143 7 parameter parameter NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 143 8 values value NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 143 9 owing owe VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 143 10 to to IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 143 11 non non JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 143 12 - - JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 143 13 normality normality NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 143 14 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 143 15 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 143 16 likelihood likelihood NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 143 17 [ [ -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 143 18 39 39 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 143 19 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 143 20 40 40 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 143 21 ] ] -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 143 22 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 144 1 Lower low JJR cord-000317-pixbry0c 144 2 values value NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 144 3 are be VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 144 4 preferable preferable JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 144 5 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 144 6 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 144 7 difference difference NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 144 8 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 144 9 around around RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 144 10 5 5 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 144 11 units unit NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 144 12 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 144 13 considered consider VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 144 14 important important JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 144 15 [ [ -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 144 16 41 41 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 144 17 ] ] -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 144 18 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 145 1 The the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 145 2 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 145 3 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 145 4 used use VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 145 5 to to TO cord-000317-pixbry0c 145 6 generate generate VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 145 7 epidemic epidemic NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 145 8 trees tree NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 145 9 [ [ -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 145 10 42 42 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 145 11 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 145 12 43 43 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 145 13 ] ] -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 145 14 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 146 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 146 2 sample sample VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 146 3 1000 1000 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 146 4 parameter parameter NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 146 5 sets set NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 146 6 from from IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 146 7 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 146 8 joint joint JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 146 9 posterior posterior JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 146 10 distribution distribution NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 146 11 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 146 12 calculate calculate VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 146 13 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 146 14 probability probability NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 146 15 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 146 16 infection infection NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 146 17 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 146 18 each each DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 146 19 potential potential JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 146 20 infector infector NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 146 21 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 146 22 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 147 1 The the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 147 2 most most RBS cord-000317-pixbry0c 147 3 likely likely JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 147 4 tree tree NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 147 5 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 147 6 each each DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 147 7 parameter parameter NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 147 8 set set NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 147 9 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 147 10 generated generate VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 147 11 by by IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 147 12 calculating calculate VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 147 13 which which WDT cord-000317-pixbry0c 147 14 ' ' `` cord-000317-pixbry0c 147 15 infector infector NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 147 16 ' ' '' cord-000317-pixbry0c 147 17 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 147 18 has have VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 147 19 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 147 20 highest high JJS cord-000317-pixbry0c 147 21 probability probability NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 147 22 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 147 23 infecting infect VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 147 24 each each DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 147 25 ' ' `` cord-000317-pixbry0c 147 26 infectee infectee NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 147 27 ' ' '' cord-000317-pixbry0c 147 28 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 147 29 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 148 1 The the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 148 2 distance distance NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 148 3 to to IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 148 4 this this DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 148 5 infector infector NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 148 6 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 148 7 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 148 8 probability probability NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 148 9 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 148 10 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 148 11 infector infector NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 148 12 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 148 13 infectee infectee NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 148 14 pair pair NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 148 15 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 148 16 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 148 17 number number NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 148 18 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 148 19 infectees infectee NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 148 20 each each DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 148 21 infector infector NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 148 22 creates create VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 148 23 are be VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 148 24 calculated calculate VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 148 25 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 148 26 each each DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 148 27 parameter parameter NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 148 28 set set VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 148 29 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 149 1 Mean mean JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 149 2 values value NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 149 3 are be VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 149 4 weighted weight VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 149 5 by by IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 149 6 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 149 7 frequency frequency NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 149 8 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 149 9 infector infector NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 149 10 -infectee -infectee : cord-000317-pixbry0c 149 11 pairs pair NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 149 12 from from IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 149 13 1000 1000 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 149 14 trees tree NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 149 15 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 150 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 150 2 examine examine VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 150 3 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 150 4 ability ability NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 150 5 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 150 6 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 150 7 models model NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 150 8 to to TO cord-000317-pixbry0c 150 9 recreate recreate VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 150 10 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 150 11 observed observed JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 150 12 epidemic epidemic NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 150 13 by by IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 150 14 simulation simulation NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 150 15 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 151 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 151 2 use use VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 151 3 1000 1000 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 151 4 parameter parameter NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 151 5 sets set NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 151 6 sampled sample VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 151 7 from from IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 151 8 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 151 9 joint joint JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 151 10 posterior posterior JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 151 11 distribution distribution NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 151 12 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 151 13 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 151 14 each each DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 151 15 set set NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 151 16 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 151 17 we -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 151 18 simulate simulate VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 151 19 an an DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 151 20 epidemic epidemic NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 151 21 using use VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 151 22 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 151 23 first first JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 151 24 infected infected JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 151 25 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 151 26 as as IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 151 27 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 151 28 source source NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 151 29 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 151 30 infection infection NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 151 31 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 152 1 Once once RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 152 2 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 152 3 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 152 4 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 152 5 infected infect VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 152 6 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 152 7 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 152 8 observed observed JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 152 9 mortality mortality NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 152 10 curve curve NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 152 11 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 152 12 used use VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 152 13 to to TO cord-000317-pixbry0c 152 14 model model VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 152 15 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 152 16 infectiousness infectiousness NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 152 17 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 152 18 that that DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 152 19 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 152 20 through through IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 152 21 time time NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 152 22 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 153 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 153 2 also also RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 153 3 calculate calculate VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 153 4 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 153 5 probability probability NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 153 6 distribution distribution NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 153 7 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 153 8 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 153 9 week week NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 153 10 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 153 11 infection infection NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 153 12 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 153 13 each each DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 153 14 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 153 15 conditional conditional JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 153 16 upon upon IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 153 17 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 153 18 observed observed JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 153 19 epidemic epidemic NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 153 20 up up IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 153 21 to to IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 153 22 that that DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 153 23 time time NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 153 24 point point NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 153 25 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 154 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 154 2 use use VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 154 3 1000 1000 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 154 4 parameter parameter NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 154 5 sets set NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 154 6 sampled sample VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 154 7 from from IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 154 8 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 154 9 joint joint JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 154 10 posterior posterior JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 154 11 distribution distribution NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 154 12 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 154 13 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 154 14 each each DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 154 15 set set NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 154 16 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 154 17 we -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 154 18 calculate calculate VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 154 19 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 154 20 probability probability NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 154 21 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 154 22 infection infection NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 154 23 each each DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 154 24 week week NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 154 25 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 154 26 each each DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 154 27 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 154 28 given give VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 154 29 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 154 30 epidemic epidemic NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 154 31 observed observe VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 154 32 up up RP cord-000317-pixbry0c 154 33 to to IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 154 34 that that DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 154 35 time time NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 154 36 point point NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 154 37 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 155 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 155 2 use use VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 155 3 Welch Welch NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 155 4 's 's POS cord-000317-pixbry0c 155 5 two two CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 155 6 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 155 7 tailed tailed JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 155 8 t t NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 155 9 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 155 10 test test NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 155 11 to to TO cord-000317-pixbry0c 155 12 differentiate differentiate VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 155 13 outlying outlying JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 155 14 groups group NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 155 15 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 156 1 Comparison comparison NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 156 2 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 156 3 spatial spatial JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 156 4 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 156 5 non non JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 156 6 - - JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 156 7 spatial spatial JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 156 8 population population NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 156 9 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 156 10 independent independent JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 156 11 models model NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 156 12 shows show VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 156 13 that that IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 156 14 inclusion inclusion NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 156 15 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 156 16 distance distance NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 156 17 substantially substantially RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 156 18 improves improve VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 156 19 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 156 20 fit fit JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 156 21 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 156 22 both both CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 156 23 England England NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 156 24 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 156 25 Wales Wales NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 156 26 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 156 27 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 156 28 US US NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 156 29 ( ( -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 156 30 D d JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 156 31 DIC DIC NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 156 32 ¼ ¼ NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 156 33 64.7 64.7 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 156 34 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 156 35 D D NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 156 36 DIC DIC NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 156 37 ¼ ¼ NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 156 38 33.3 33.3 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 156 39 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 156 40 respectively respectively RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 156 41 ) ) -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 156 42 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 157 1 DIC DIC NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 157 2 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 157 3 parameter parameter NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 157 4 estimates estimate NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 157 5 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 157 6 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 157 7 distance distance NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 157 8 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 157 9 only only JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 157 10 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 157 11 are be VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 157 12 given give VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 157 13 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 157 14 column column NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 157 15 1 1 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 157 16 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 157 17 tables table NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 157 18 1 1 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 157 19 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 157 20 2 2 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 157 21 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 158 1 Previous previous JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 158 2 formulations formulation NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 158 3 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 158 4 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 158 5 gravity gravity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 158 6 kernel kernel NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 158 7 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 158 8 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 158 9 literature literature NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 158 10 have have VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 158 11 considered consider VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 158 12 either either CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 158 13 density density NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 158 14 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 158 15 dependent dependent JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 158 16 ( ( -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 158 17 1 1 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 158 18 ¼ ¼ CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 158 19 0 0 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 158 20 ) ) -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 158 21 or or CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 158 22 density density NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 158 23 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 158 24 independent independent JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 158 25 transmission transmission NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 158 26 ( ( -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 158 27 1 1 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 158 28 ¼ ¼ CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 158 29 1 1 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 158 30 ) ) -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 158 31 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 159 1 Figure figure NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 159 2 2 2 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 159 3 compares compare VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 159 4 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 159 5 fit fit NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 159 6 ( ( -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 159 7 expressed express VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 159 8 by by IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 159 9 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 159 10 posterior posterior JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 159 11 deviance deviance NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 159 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 159 13 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 159 14 these these DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 159 15 two two CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 159 16 formulations formulation NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 159 17 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 159 18 with with IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 159 19 that that DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 159 20 from from IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 159 21 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 159 22 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 159 23 where where WRB cord-000317-pixbry0c 159 24 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 159 25 degree degree NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 159 26 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 159 27 density density NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 159 28 dependence dependence NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 159 29 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 159 30 1 1 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 159 31 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 159 32 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 159 33 estimated estimate VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 159 34 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 160 1 This this DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 160 2 comparison comparison NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 160 3 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 160 4 made make VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 160 5 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 160 6 models model NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 160 7 assuming assume VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 160 8 no no DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 160 9 linear linear NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 160 10 or or CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 160 11 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 160 12 fitted fit VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 160 13 power power NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 160 14 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 160 15 dependence dependence NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 160 16 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 160 17 spatial spatial JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 160 18 coupling coupling NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 160 19 on on IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 160 20 both both DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 160 21 source source NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 160 22 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 160 23 destination destination NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 160 24 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 160 25 population population NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 160 26 size size NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 160 27 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 161 1 In in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 161 2 figure figure NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 161 3 2a 2a CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 161 4 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 161 5 w w NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 161 6 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 161 7 estimated estimate VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 161 8 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 161 9 whereas whereas IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 161 10 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 161 11 b b NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 161 12 it -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 161 13 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 161 14 fixed fix VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 161 15 at at IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 161 16 1 1 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 161 17 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 162 1 See see VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 162 2 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 162 3 components component NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 162 4 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 162 5 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 162 6 electronic electronic JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 162 7 supplementary supplementary JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 162 8 material material NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 162 9 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 162 10 further further JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 162 11 comparisons comparison NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 162 12 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 163 1 For for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 163 2 England England NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 163 3 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 163 4 Wales Wales NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 163 5 ( ( -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 163 6 figure figure NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 163 7 2a 2a CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 163 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 163 9 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 163 10 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 163 11 each each DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 163 12 population population NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 163 13 context context VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 163 14 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 163 15 variant variant NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 163 16 that that WDT cord-000317-pixbry0c 163 17 estimates estimate VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 163 18 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 163 19 degree degree NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 163 20 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 163 21 density density NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 163 22 dependence dependence NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 163 23 ( ( -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 163 24 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 163 25 lightest light JJS cord-000317-pixbry0c 163 26 curve curve NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 163 27 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 163 28 each each DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 163 29 colour colour NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 163 30 ) ) -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 163 31 gives give VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 163 32 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 163 33 slightly slightly RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 163 34 better well JJR cord-000317-pixbry0c 163 35 fit fit NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 163 36 than than IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 163 37 models model NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 163 38 with with IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 163 39 no no DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 163 40 density density NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 163 41 dependence dependence NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 163 42 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 163 43 with with IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 163 44 pure pure JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 163 45 density density NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 163 46 dependence dependence NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 163 47 fitting fit VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 163 48 substantially substantially RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 163 49 less less RBR cord-000317-pixbry0c 163 50 well well RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 163 51 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 164 1 The the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 164 2 comparison comparison NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 164 3 also also RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 164 4 shows show VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 164 5 that that IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 164 6 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 164 7 models model NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 164 8 which which WDT cord-000317-pixbry0c 164 9 estimate estimate VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 164 10 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 164 11 effect effect NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 164 12 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 164 13 origin origin NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 164 14 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 164 15 destination destination NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 164 16 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 164 17 population population NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 164 18 sizes size NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 164 19 on on IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 164 20 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 164 21 connectivity connectivity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 164 22 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 164 23 cities city NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 164 24 are be VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 164 25 much much RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 164 26 better well JJR cord-000317-pixbry0c 164 27 than than IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 164 28 either either CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 164 29 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 164 30 populationindependent populationindependent NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 164 31 or or CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 164 32 linear linear JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 164 33 population population NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 164 34 size size NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 164 35 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 164 36 dependent dependent JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 164 37 models model NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 164 38 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 165 1 The the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 165 2 same same JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 165 3 set set NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 165 4 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 165 5 comparisons comparison NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 165 6 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 165 7 made make VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 165 8 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 165 9 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 165 10 US US NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 165 11 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 165 12 figure figure NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 165 13 2b 2b CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 165 14 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 166 1 The the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 166 2 situation situation NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 166 3 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 166 4 more more RBR cord-000317-pixbry0c 166 5 complex complex JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 166 6 with with IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 166 7 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 166 8 posterior posterior JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 166 9 distribution distribution NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 166 10 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 166 11 many many JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 166 12 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 166 13 variants variant NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 166 14 lying lie VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 166 15 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 166 16 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 166 17 same same JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 166 18 area area NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 166 19 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 167 1 Comparisons comparison NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 167 2 by by IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 167 3 DIC DIC NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 167 4 value value NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 167 5 can can MD cord-000317-pixbry0c 167 6 not not RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 167 7 distinguish distinguish VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 167 8 these these DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 167 9 models model NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 167 10 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 168 1 Unlike unlike IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 168 2 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 168 3 England England NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 168 4 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 168 5 Wales Wales NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 168 6 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 168 7 there there EX cord-000317-pixbry0c 168 8 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 168 9 no no DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 168 10 density density NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 168 11 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 168 12 dependence dependence NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 168 13 variant variant NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 168 14 which which WDT cord-000317-pixbry0c 168 15 has have VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 168 16 lower low JJR cord-000317-pixbry0c 168 17 deviance deviance NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 168 18 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 168 19 all all DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 168 20 three three CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 168 21 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 168 22 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 168 23 population population NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 168 24 sizedependence sizedependence NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 168 25 variants variant NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 168 26 examined examine VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 168 27 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 169 1 Inclusion inclusion NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 169 2 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 169 3 nonlinear nonlinear JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 169 4 population population NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 169 5 size size NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 169 6 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 169 7 dependence dependence NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 169 8 does do VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 169 9 not not RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 169 10 penalize penalize VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 169 11 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 169 12 fit fit NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 169 13 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 169 14 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 169 15 US US NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 169 16 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 169 17 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 169 18 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 169 19 so so RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 169 20 can can MD cord-000317-pixbry0c 169 21 not not RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 169 22 be be VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 169 23 definitively definitively RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 169 24 excluded exclude VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 169 25 as as IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 169 26 being be VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 169 27 consistent consistent JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 169 28 with with IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 169 29 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 169 30 data datum NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 169 31 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 170 1 The the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 170 2 models model NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 170 3 presented present VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 170 4 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 170 5 columns column NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 170 6 5 5 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 170 7 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 170 8 6 6 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 170 9 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 170 10 table table NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 170 11 2 2 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 170 12 have have VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 170 13 different different JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 170 14 population population NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 170 15 relationships relationship NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 170 16 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 170 17 but but CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 170 18 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 170 19 same same JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 170 20 DIC DIC NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 170 21 score score NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 170 22 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 171 1 The the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 171 2 credible credible JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 171 3 intervals interval NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 171 4 on on IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 171 5 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 171 6 population population NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 171 7 parameters parameter NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 171 8 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 171 9 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 171 10 densitydependent densitydependent JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 171 11 population population NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 171 12 with with IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 171 13 infectivity infectivity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 171 14 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 171 15 ( ( -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 171 16 column column NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 171 17 5 5 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 171 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 171 19 are be VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 171 20 very very RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 171 21 wide wide RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 171 22 suggesting suggest VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 171 23 that that IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 171 24 little little JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 171 25 information information NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 171 26 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 171 27 added add VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 171 28 by by IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 171 29 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 171 30 inclusion inclusion NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 171 31 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 171 32 these these DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 171 33 parameters parameter NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 171 34 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 172 1 In in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 172 2 England England NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 172 3 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 172 4 Wales Wales NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 172 5 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 172 6 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 172 7 lowest low JJS cord-000317-pixbry0c 172 8 DIC dic JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 172 9 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 172 10 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 172 11 one one CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 172 12 where where WRB cord-000317-pixbry0c 172 13 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 172 14 degree degree NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 172 15 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 172 16 density density NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 172 17 dependence dependence NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 172 18 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 172 19 estimated estimate VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 172 20 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 172 21 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 172 22 effect effect NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 172 23 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 172 24 population population NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 172 25 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 172 26 also also RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 172 27 estimated estimate VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 172 28 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 173 1 This this DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 173 2 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 173 3 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 173 4 contrast contrast NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 173 5 to to IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 173 6 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 173 7 US US NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 173 8 where where WRB cord-000317-pixbry0c 173 9 population population NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 173 10 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 173 11 independent independent JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 173 12 models model NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 173 13 either either CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 173 14 with with IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 173 15 density density NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 173 16 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 173 17 dependent dependent JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 173 18 or or CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 173 19 estimated estimate VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 173 20 density density NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 173 21 dependence dependence NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 173 22 spatial spatial JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 173 23 interaction interaction NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 173 24 terms term NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 173 25 are be VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 173 26 indistinguishable indistinguishable JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 173 27 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 174 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 174 2 tested test VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 174 3 models model NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 174 4 with with IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 174 5 three three CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 174 6 types type NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 174 7 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 174 8 infectiousness infectiousness NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 174 9 profile profile NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 174 10 through through IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 174 11 time time NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 174 12 : : : cord-000317-pixbry0c 174 13 constant constant JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 174 14 infectivity infectivity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 174 15 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 174 16 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 174 17 linear linear JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 174 18 relationship relationship NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 174 19 between between IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 174 20 infectivity infectivity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 174 21 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 174 22 mortality mortality NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 174 23 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 174 24 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 174 25 week week NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 174 26 ahead ahead RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 174 27 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 174 28 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 174 29 an an DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 174 30 estimated estimate VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 174 31 power power NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 174 32 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 174 33 law law NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 174 34 relationship relationship NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 174 35 between between IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 174 36 mortality mortality NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 174 37 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 174 38 infectivity infectivity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 174 39 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 175 1 Mixing mix VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 175 2 was be VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 175 3 poor poor JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 175 4 when when WRB cord-000317-pixbry0c 175 5 estimating estimate VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 175 6 w w NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 175 7 with with IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 175 8 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 175 9 US US NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 175 10 data datum NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 176 1 so so RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 176 2 we -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 176 3 only only RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 176 4 compare compare VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 176 5 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 176 6 first first JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 176 7 two two CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 176 8 models model NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 176 9 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 176 10 that that DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 176 11 setting setting NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 176 12 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 177 1 In in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 177 2 England England NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 177 3 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 177 4 Wales Wales NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 177 5 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 177 6 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 177 7 linear linear JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 177 8 infectivity infectivity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 177 9 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 177 10 has have VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 177 11 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 177 12 DIC DIC NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 177 13 value value NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 177 14 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 177 15 more more JJR cord-000317-pixbry0c 177 16 than than IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 177 17 25 25 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 177 18 above above IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 177 19 either either CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 177 20 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 177 21 constant constant JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 177 22 or or CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 177 23 estimated estimate VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 177 24 infectivity infectivity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 177 25 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 177 26 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 178 1 Parameter parameter NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 178 2 estimates estimate NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 178 3 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 178 4 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 178 5 constant constant JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 178 6 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 178 7 infectivity infectivity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 178 8 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 178 9 estimated estimate VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 178 10 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 178 11 infectivity infectivity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 178 12 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 178 13 variants variant NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 178 14 are be VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 178 15 shown show VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 178 16 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 178 17 columns column NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 178 18 4 4 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 178 19 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 178 20 5 5 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 178 21 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 178 22 table table NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 178 23 1 1 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 178 24 using use VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 178 25 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 178 26 density density NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 178 27 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 178 28 dependent dependent JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 178 29 population population NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 178 30 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 178 31 dependent dependent JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 178 32 framework framework NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 178 33 from from IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 178 34 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 178 35 previous previous JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 178 36 comparison comparison NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 178 37 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 178 38 England England NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 178 39 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 178 40 Wales Wales NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 178 41 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 179 1 These these DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 179 2 two two CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 179 3 models model NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 179 4 are be VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 179 5 indistinguishable indistinguishable JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 179 6 by by IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 179 7 DIC DIC NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 179 8 ( ( -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 179 9 D d JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 179 10 DIC DIC NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 179 11 ¼ ¼ CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 179 12 0.1 0.1 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 179 13 ) ) -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 179 14 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 180 1 Estimates estimate NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 180 2 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 180 3 all all DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 180 4 other other JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 180 5 parameters parameter NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 180 6 are be VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 180 7 very very RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 180 8 comparable comparable JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 180 9 between between IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 180 10 these these DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 180 11 two two CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 180 12 models model NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 180 13 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 181 1 The the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 181 2 estimated estimate VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 181 3 relationship relationship NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 181 4 includes include VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 181 5 two two CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 181 6 inputs input NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 181 7 from from IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 181 8 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 181 9 infected infected JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 181 10 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 181 11 : : : cord-000317-pixbry0c 181 12 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 181 13 mortality mortality NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 181 14 rate rate NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 181 15 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 181 16 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 181 17 population population NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 181 18 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 181 19 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 181 20 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 181 21 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 182 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 182 2 can can MD cord-000317-pixbry0c 182 3 be be VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 182 4 more more RBR cord-000317-pixbry0c 182 5 difficult difficult JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 182 6 to to TO cord-000317-pixbry0c 182 7 estimate estimate VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 182 8 parameters parameter NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 182 9 regarding regard VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 182 10 infectivity infectivity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 182 11 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 182 12 so so RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 182 13 we -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 182 14 tested test VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 182 15 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 182 16 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 182 17 which which WDT cord-000317-pixbry0c 182 18 takes take VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 182 19 only only RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 182 20 one one CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 182 21 piece piece NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 182 22 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 182 23 information information NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 182 24 from from IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 182 25 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 182 26 infected infected JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 182 27 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 182 28 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 183 1 The the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 183 2 final final JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 183 3 column column NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 183 4 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 183 5 table table NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 183 6 1 1 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 183 7 shows show VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 183 8 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 183 9 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 183 10 which which WDT cord-000317-pixbry0c 183 11 takes take VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 183 12 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 183 13 mortality mortality NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 183 14 rate rate NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 183 15 from from IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 183 16 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 183 17 infected infected JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 183 18 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 183 19 into into IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 183 20 account account NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 183 21 but but CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 183 22 does do VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 183 23 not not RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 183 24 include include VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 183 25 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 183 26 population population NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 183 27 size size NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 183 28 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 183 29 that that DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 183 30 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 183 31 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 184 1 There there EX cord-000317-pixbry0c 184 2 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 184 3 an an DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 184 4 improvement improvement NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 184 5 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 184 6 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 184 7 DIC DIC NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 184 8 score score NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 184 9 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 184 10 this this DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 184 11 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 184 12 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 184 13 4.4 4.4 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 184 14 over over IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 184 15 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 184 16 constant constant JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 184 17 infectivity infectivity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 184 18 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 184 19 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 185 1 Table table NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 185 2 2 2 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 185 3 shows show VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 185 4 parameter parameter NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 185 5 estimates estimate NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 185 6 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 185 7 models model NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 185 8 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 185 9 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 185 10 US US NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 185 11 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 186 1 The the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 186 2 difference difference NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 186 3 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 186 4 DIC DIC NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 186 5 score score NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 186 6 between between IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 186 7 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 186 8 constant constant JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 186 9 infectivity infectivity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 186 10 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 186 11 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 186 12 one one CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 186 13 with with IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 186 14 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 186 15 linear linear JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 186 16 relationship relationship NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 186 17 between between IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 186 18 mortality mortality NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 186 19 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 186 20 infectivity infectivity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 186 21 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 186 22 negligible negligible JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 186 23 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 186 24 either either CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 186 25 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 186 26 distance distance NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 186 27 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 186 28 only only JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 186 29 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 186 30 framework framework NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 186 31 ( ( -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 186 32 columns column NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 186 33 1 1 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 186 34 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 186 35 6 6 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 186 36 ) ) -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 186 37 or or CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 186 38 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 186 39 population population NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 186 40 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 186 41 dependent dependent JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 186 42 framework framework NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 186 43 ( ( -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 186 44 columns column NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 186 45 2 2 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 186 46 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 186 47 5 5 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 186 48 ) ) -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 186 49 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 187 1 Adding add VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 187 2 infectivity infectivity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 187 3 information information NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 187 4 does do VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 187 5 not not RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 187 6 improve improve VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 187 7 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 187 8 fit fit NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 187 9 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 187 10 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 187 11 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 187 12 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 188 1 In in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 188 2 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 188 3 England England NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 188 4 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 188 5 Wales Wales NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 188 6 dataset dataset NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 188 7 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 188 8 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 188 9 lowest low JJS cord-000317-pixbry0c 188 10 DIC dic JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 188 11 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 188 12 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 188 13 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 188 14 single single JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 188 15 infected infected JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 188 16 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 188 17 parameter parameter NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 188 18 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 188 19 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 188 20 column column NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 188 21 6 6 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 188 22 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 188 23 table table NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 188 24 1 1 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 188 25 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 189 1 The the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 189 2 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 189 3 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 189 4 dependent dependent JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 189 5 on on IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 189 6 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 189 7 destination destination NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 189 8 population population NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 189 9 size size NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 189 10 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 189 11 has have VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 189 12 estimated estimate VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 189 13 dependence dependence NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 189 14 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 189 15 infectivity infectivity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 189 16 on on IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 189 17 mortality mortality NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 189 18 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 189 19 an an DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 189 20 estimated estimate VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 189 21 intermediate intermediate JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 189 22 degree degree NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 189 23 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 189 24 density density NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 189 25 dependence dependence NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 189 26 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 190 1 The the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 190 2 distance distance NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 190 3 power power NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 190 4 g g NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 190 5 was be VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 190 6 estimated estimate VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 190 7 as as IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 190 8 1.18 1.18 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 190 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 190 10 0.96 0.96 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 190 11 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 190 12 1.39 1.39 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 190 13 ) ) -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 190 14 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 191 1 A a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 191 2 lower low JJR cord-000317-pixbry0c 191 3 value value NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 191 4 was be VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 191 5 found find VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 191 6 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 191 7 models model NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 191 8 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 191 9 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 191 10 US US NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 191 11 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 191 12 where where WRB cord-000317-pixbry0c 191 13 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 191 14 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 191 15 most most RBS cord-000317-pixbry0c 191 16 parsimonious parsimonious JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 191 17 low low JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 191 18 DIC DIC NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 191 19 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 191 20 ( ( -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 191 21 density density NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 191 22 dependent dependent JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 191 23 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 191 24 population population NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 191 25 independent independent JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 191 26 ) ) -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 191 27 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 191 28 g g NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 191 29 was be VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 191 30 estimated estimate VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 191 31 as as IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 191 32 0.79 0.79 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 191 33 ( ( -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 191 34 0.54 0.54 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 191 35 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 191 36 1.00 1.00 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 191 37 ) ) -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 191 38 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 192 1 Figure figure NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 192 2 3 3 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 192 3 shows show VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 192 4 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 192 5 distance distance NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 192 6 kernels kernel NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 192 7 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 192 8 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 192 9 two two CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 192 10 datasets dataset NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 192 11 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 193 1 The the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 193 2 credible credible JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 193 3 intervals interval NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 193 4 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 193 5 g g NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 193 6 overlap overlap NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 193 7 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 193 8 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 193 9 two two CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 193 10 datasets dataset NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 193 11 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 194 1 The the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 194 2 power power NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 194 3 parameter parameter NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 194 4 on on IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 194 5 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 194 6 destination destination NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 194 7 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 194 8 population population NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 194 9 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 194 10 m m NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 194 11 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 194 12 was be VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 194 13 estimated estimate VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 194 14 at at IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 194 15 0.40 0.40 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 194 16 ( ( -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 194 17 0.25 0.25 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 194 18 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 194 19 0.54 0.54 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 194 20 ) ) -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 194 21 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 194 22 England England NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 194 23 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 194 24 Wales Wales NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 194 25 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 195 1 The the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 195 2 credible credible JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 195 3 intervals interval NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 195 4 exclude exclude VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 195 5 1 1 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 195 6 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 195 7 demonstrating demonstrate VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 195 8 that that IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 195 9 as as IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 195 10 population population NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 195 11 size size NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 195 12 increases increase NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 195 13 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 195 14 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 195 15 susceptibility susceptibility NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 195 16 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 195 17 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 195 18 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 195 19 increased increase VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 195 20 more more RBR cord-000317-pixbry0c 195 21 slowly slowly RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 195 22 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 196 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 196 2 used use VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 196 3 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 196 4 posterior posterior JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 196 5 median median JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 196 6 parameter parameter NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 196 7 estimates estimate NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 196 8 fitted fit VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 196 9 to to IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 196 10 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 196 11 England England NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 196 12 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 196 13 Wales Wales NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 196 14 dataset dataset NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 196 15 to to TO cord-000317-pixbry0c 196 16 calculate calculate VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 196 17 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 196 18 likelihood likelihood NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 196 19 value value NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 196 20 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 196 21 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 196 22 US US NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 196 23 dataset dataset NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 196 24 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 197 1 By by IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 197 2 likelihood likelihood NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 197 3 ratio ratio NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 197 4 test test NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 197 5 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 197 6 this this DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 197 7 value value NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 197 8 was be VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 197 9 not not RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 197 10 different different JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 197 11 from from IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 197 12 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 197 13 most most RBS cord-000317-pixbry0c 197 14 parsimonious parsimonious JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 197 15 low low JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 197 16 DIC DIC NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 197 17 US US NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 197 18 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 197 19 ( ( -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 197 20 255.23 255.23 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 197 21 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 197 22 257.72 257.72 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 197 23 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 197 24 p p NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 197 25 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 197 26 0.97 0.97 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 197 27 ) ) -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 197 28 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 198 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 198 2 therefore therefore RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 198 3 can can MD cord-000317-pixbry0c 198 4 not not RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 198 5 reject reject VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 198 6 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 198 7 assumption assumption NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 198 8 that that WDT cord-000317-pixbry0c 198 9 spread spread NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 198 10 had have VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 198 11 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 198 12 same same JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 198 13 characteristics characteristic NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 198 14 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 198 15 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 198 16 US US NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 198 17 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 198 18 England England NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 198 19 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 198 20 Wales Wales NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 198 21 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 198 22 though though IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 198 23 clearly clearly RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 198 24 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 198 25 smaller small JJR cord-000317-pixbry0c 198 26 size size NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 198 27 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 198 28 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 198 29 US US NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 198 30 dataset dataset NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 198 31 reduces reduce VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 198 32 inferential inferential JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 198 33 power power NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 198 34 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 199 1 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 199 2 epidemic epidemic NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 199 3 during during IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 199 4 which which WDT cord-000317-pixbry0c 199 5 each each DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 199 6 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 199 7 was be VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 199 8 infected infect VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 199 9 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 200 1 Inferred infer VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 200 2 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 200 3 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 200 4 to to IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 200 5 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 200 6 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 200 7 infection infection NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 200 8 events event VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 200 9 more more RBR cord-000317-pixbry0c 200 10 frequent frequent JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 200 11 than than IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 200 12 70 70 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 200 13 per per IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 200 14 cent cent NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 200 15 ( ( -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 200 16 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 200 17 1000 1000 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 200 18 trees tree NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 200 19 ) ) -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 200 20 are be VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 200 21 shown show VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 200 22 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 200 23 black black JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 200 24 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 200 25 events event NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 200 26 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 200 27 lower low JJR cord-000317-pixbry0c 200 28 frequency frequency NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 200 29 are be VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 200 30 shown show VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 200 31 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 200 32 grey grey NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 200 33 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 201 1 Interactions interaction NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 201 2 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 201 3 weeks week NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 201 4 0 0 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 201 5 -3 -3 NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 201 6 are be VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 201 7 longer long JJR cord-000317-pixbry0c 201 8 range range NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 201 9 than than IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 201 10 those those DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 201 11 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 201 12 weeks week NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 201 13 4 4 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 201 14 -7 -7 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 202 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 202 2 p p NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 202 3 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 202 4 0.01 0.01 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 202 5 ) ) -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 202 6 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 202 7 which which WDT cord-000317-pixbry0c 202 8 are be VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 202 9 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 202 10 turn turn NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 202 11 longer long RBR cord-000317-pixbry0c 202 12 range range VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 202 13 than than IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 202 14 those those DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 202 15 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 202 16 weeks week NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 202 17 8 8 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 202 18 -10 -10 NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 202 19 ( ( -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 202 20 p p NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 202 21 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 202 22 0.01 0.01 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 202 23 ) ) -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 202 24 ( ( -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 202 25 figure figure NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 202 26 4d 4d CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 202 27 ) ) -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 202 28 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 203 1 The the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 203 2 probability probability NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 203 3 that that IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 203 4 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 203 5 most most RBS cord-000317-pixbry0c 203 6 likely likely JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 203 7 infector infector NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 203 8 was be VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 203 9 responsible responsible JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 203 10 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 203 11 each each DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 203 12 infection infection NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 203 13 falls fall VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 203 14 as as IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 203 15 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 203 16 epidemic epidemic NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 203 17 progresses progress VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 203 18 because because IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 203 19 there there EX cord-000317-pixbry0c 203 20 are be VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 203 21 many many JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 203 22 more more JJR cord-000317-pixbry0c 203 23 potential potential JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 203 24 infectors infector NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 203 25 available available JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 203 26 later later RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 203 27 ( ( -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 203 28 figure figure NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 203 29 4e 4e CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 203 30 ) ) -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 203 31 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 204 1 Cities city NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 204 2 infected infect VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 204 3 early early JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 204 4 give give NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 204 5 rise rise NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 204 6 to to IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 204 7 more more JJR cord-000317-pixbry0c 204 8 infections infection NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 204 9 than than IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 204 10 those those DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 204 11 infected infect VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 204 12 late late RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 204 13 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 204 14 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 204 15 wave wave NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 204 16 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 204 17 as as IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 204 18 expected expect VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 204 19 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 204 20 but but CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 204 21 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 204 22 range range NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 204 23 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 204 24 large large JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 204 25 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 204 26 with with IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 204 27 some some DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 204 28 early early JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 204 29 cities city NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 204 30 giving give VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 204 31 rise rise NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 204 32 to to IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 204 33 no no DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 204 34 new new JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 204 35 infections infection NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 204 36 ( ( -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 204 37 figure figure NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 204 38 4f 4f CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 204 39 ) ) -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 204 40 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 205 1 Figure figure NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 205 2 5 5 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 205 3 shows show VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 205 4 results result NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 205 5 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 205 6 two two CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 205 7 models model NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 205 8 using use VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 205 9 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 205 10 US US NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 205 11 data datum NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 205 12 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 206 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 206 2 compare compare VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 206 3 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 206 4 most most RBS cord-000317-pixbry0c 206 5 likely likely JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 206 6 infection infection NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 206 7 trees tree NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 206 8 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 206 9 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 206 10 distance distance NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 206 11 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 206 12 only only JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 206 13 constant constant JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 206 14 infectivity infectivity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 206 15 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 206 16 with with IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 206 17 parameters parameter NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 206 18 inferred infer VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 206 19 from from IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 206 20 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 206 21 US US NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 206 22 data datum NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 206 23 ( ( -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 206 24 figure figure NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 206 25 5a 5a CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 206 26 ) ) -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 206 27 with with IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 206 28 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 206 29 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 206 30 where where WRB cord-000317-pixbry0c 206 31 parameters parameter NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 206 32 used use VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 206 33 to to TO cord-000317-pixbry0c 206 34 generate generate VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 206 35 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 206 36 trees tree NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 206 37 are be VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 206 38 taken take VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 206 39 from from IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 206 40 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 206 41 England England NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 206 42 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 206 43 Wales Wales NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 206 44 single single RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 206 45 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 206 46 infected infect VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 206 47 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 206 48 parameter parameter NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 206 49 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 206 50 ( ( -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 206 51 figure figure NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 206 52 5c 5c CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 206 53 ) ) -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 206 54 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 207 1 In in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 207 2 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 207 3 distance distance NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 207 4 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 207 5 only only JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 207 6 constant constant JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 207 7 infectivity infectivity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 207 8 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 207 9 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 207 10 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 207 11 nearest near JJS cord-000317-pixbry0c 207 12 infected infected JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 207 13 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 207 14 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 207 15 always always RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 207 16 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 207 17 most most RBS cord-000317-pixbry0c 207 18 likely likely JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 207 19 infector infector NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 207 20 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 208 1 In in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 208 2 contrast contrast NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 208 3 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 208 4 with with IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 208 5 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 208 6 England England NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 208 7 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 208 8 Wales Wales NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 208 9 parameters parameter NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 208 10 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 208 11 some some DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 208 12 links link NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 208 13 between between IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 208 14 cities city NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 208 15 are be VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 208 16 high high JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 208 17 frequency frequency NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 208 18 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 208 19 while while IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 208 20 other other JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 208 21 cities city NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 208 22 have have VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 208 23 several several JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 208 24 potential potential JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 208 25 infectors infector NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 208 26 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 208 27 intermediate intermediate JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 208 28 frequency frequency NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 208 29 ( ( -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 208 30 figure figure NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 208 31 5b 5b CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 208 32 ) ) -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 208 33 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 209 1 As as IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 209 2 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 209 3 England England NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 209 4 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 209 5 Wales Wales NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 209 6 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 209 7 infection infection NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 209 8 events event NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 209 9 inferred infer VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 209 10 early early RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 209 11 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 209 12 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 209 13 epidemic epidemic NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 209 14 have have VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 209 15 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 209 16 higher high JJR cord-000317-pixbry0c 209 17 support support NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 209 18 than than IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 209 19 those those DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 209 20 later later RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 209 21 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 209 22 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 209 23 epidemic epidemic NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 209 24 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 210 1 There there EX cord-000317-pixbry0c 210 2 are be VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 210 3 some some DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 210 4 exceptions exception NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 210 5 owing owe VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 210 6 to to IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 210 7 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 210 8 distribution distribution NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 210 9 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 210 10 cities city NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 210 11 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 210 12 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 210 13 US US NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 210 14 dataset dataset NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 210 15 - - : cord-000317-pixbry0c 210 16 Oakland Oakland NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 210 17 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 210 18 San San NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 210 19 Francisco Francisco NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 210 20 are be VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 210 21 distant distant JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 210 22 from from IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 210 23 all all DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 210 24 other other JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 210 25 cities city NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 210 26 but but CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 210 27 very very RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 210 28 close close JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 210 29 to to IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 210 30 each each DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 210 31 other other JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 210 32 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 211 1 In in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 211 2 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 211 3 distance distance NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 211 4 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 211 5 only only JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 211 6 constant constant JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 211 7 infectivity infectivity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 211 8 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 211 9 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 211 10 some some DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 211 11 cities city NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 211 12 may may MD cord-000317-pixbry0c 211 13 give give VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 211 14 rise rise NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 211 15 to to IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 211 16 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 211 17 large large JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 211 18 number number NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 211 19 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 211 20 new new JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 211 21 infections infection NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 211 22 ( ( -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 211 23 e.g. e.g. IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 211 24 Pittsburgh Pittsburgh NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 211 25 gives give VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 211 26 rise rise NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 211 27 to to IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 211 28 nearly nearly RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 211 29 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 211 30 quarter quarter NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 211 31 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 211 32 infections infection NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 211 33 ) ) -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 211 34 ( ( -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 211 35 figure figure NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 211 36 5d 5d CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 211 37 ) ) -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 211 38 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 212 1 The the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 212 2 effect effect NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 212 3 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 212 4 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 212 5 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 212 6 acting act VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 212 7 as as IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 212 8 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 212 9 hub hub NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 212 10 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 212 11 infection infection NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 212 12 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 212 13 reduced reduce VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 212 14 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 212 15 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 212 16 more more RBR cord-000317-pixbry0c 212 17 complex complex JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 212 18 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 212 19 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 212 20 as as IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 212 21 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 212 22 risk risk NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 212 23 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 212 24 infection infection NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 212 25 from from IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 212 26 one one CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 212 27 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 212 28 to to IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 212 29 another another DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 212 30 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 212 31 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 212 32 combined combined JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 212 33 effect effect NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 212 34 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 212 35 several several JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 212 36 factors factor NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 212 37 including include VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 212 38 distance distance NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 212 39 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 213 1 For for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 213 2 England England NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 213 3 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 213 4 Wales Wales NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 213 5 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 213 6 there there EX cord-000317-pixbry0c 213 7 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 213 8 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 213 9 relatively relatively RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 213 10 good good JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 213 11 agreement agreement NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 213 12 between between IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 213 13 observed observed JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 213 14 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 213 15 simulated simulated JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 213 16 epidemic epidemic NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 213 17 curves curve NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 213 18 ( ( -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 213 19 figure figure NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 213 20 6b 6b CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 213 21 ) ) -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 213 22 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 214 1 The the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 214 2 observed observed JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 214 3 epidemic epidemic NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 214 4 curve curve NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 214 5 rises rise VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 214 6 more more RBR cord-000317-pixbry0c 214 7 steeply steeply RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 214 8 than than IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 214 9 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 214 10 simulation simulation NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 214 11 curves curve VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 214 12 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 214 13 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 214 14 early early JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 214 15 stages stage NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 214 16 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 214 17 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 214 18 epidemic epidemic NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 214 19 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 214 20 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 214 21 peaks peak VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 214 22 one one CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 214 23 week week NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 214 24 earlier early RBR cord-000317-pixbry0c 214 25 than than IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 214 26 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 214 27 simulation simulation NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 214 28 mean mean VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 214 29 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 215 1 This this DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 215 2 suggests suggest VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 215 3 that that IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 215 4 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 215 5 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 215 6 may may MD cord-000317-pixbry0c 215 7 underestimate underestimate VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 215 8 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 215 9 external external JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 215 10 infection infection NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 215 11 pressure pressure NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 215 12 early early RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 215 13 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 215 14 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 215 15 wave wave NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 215 16 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 216 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 216 2 calculated calculate VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 216 3 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 216 4 probability probability NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 216 5 that that IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 216 6 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 216 7 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 216 8 was be VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 216 9 infected infect VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 216 10 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 216 11 each each DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 216 12 week week NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 216 13 given give VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 216 14 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 216 15 observed observed JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 216 16 behaviour behaviour NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 216 17 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 216 18 all all DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 216 19 other other JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 216 20 cities city NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 216 21 up up IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 216 22 to to IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 216 23 that that DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 216 24 time time NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 216 25 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 217 1 In in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 217 2 England England NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 217 3 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 217 4 Wales Wales NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 217 5 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 217 6 245 245 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 217 7 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 217 8 246 246 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 217 9 cities city NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 217 10 lie lie VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 217 11 within within IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 217 12 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 217 13 95 95 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 217 14 per per NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 217 15 cent cent NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 217 16 interval interval NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 217 17 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 217 18 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-000317-pixbry0c 217 19 expected expect VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 217 20 distribution distribution NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 217 21 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 218 1 Figure figure NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 218 2 6a 6a CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 218 3 shows show VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 218 4 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 218 5 cities city NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 218 6 which which WDT cord-000317-pixbry0c 218 7 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 218 8 observed observed JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 218 9 infection infection NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 218 10 week week NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 218 11 lies lie VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 218 12 outside outside IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 218 13 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 218 14 stricter strict JJR cord-000317-pixbry0c 218 15 inter inter JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 218 16 quartile quartile NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 218 17 interval interval NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 218 18 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 219 1 For for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 219 2 further further JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 219 3 information information NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 219 4 see see VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 219 5 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 219 6 electronic electronic JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 219 7 supplementary supplementary JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 219 8 material material NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 219 9 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 220 1 There there EX cord-000317-pixbry0c 220 2 are be VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 220 3 no no DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 220 4 population population NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 220 5 size size NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 220 6 ( ( -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 220 7 p p NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 220 8 ¼ ¼ CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 220 9 0.36 0.36 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 220 10 ) ) -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 220 11 or or CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 220 12 density density NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 220 13 trends trend NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 220 14 ( ( -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 220 15 p p NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 220 16 ¼ ¼ CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 220 17 0.11 0.11 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 220 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 220 19 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 220 20 these these DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 220 21 cities city NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 220 22 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 220 23 which which WDT cord-000317-pixbry0c 220 24 are be VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 220 25 typically typically RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 220 26 infected infect VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 220 27 later later RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 220 28 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 220 29 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 220 30 epidemic epidemic NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 220 31 ( ( -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 220 32 p p NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 220 33 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 220 34 0.01 0.01 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 220 35 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 220 36 difference difference NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 220 37 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 220 38 infection infection NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 220 39 week week NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 220 40 ) ) -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 220 41 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 221 1 In in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 221 2 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 221 3 US US NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 221 4 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 221 5 all all DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 221 6 cities city NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 221 7 lie lie VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 221 8 within within IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 221 9 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 221 10 95 95 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 221 11 per per IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 221 12 cent cent NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 221 13 probability probability NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 221 14 interval interval NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 221 15 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 221 16 all all DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 221 17 but but CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 221 18 three three CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 221 19 lie lie NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 221 20 within within IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 221 21 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 221 22 inter inter JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 221 23 quartile quartile NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 221 24 interval interval NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 221 25 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 222 1 Those those DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 222 2 three three CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 222 3 outlier outlier JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 222 4 cities city NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 222 5 are be VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 222 6 smaller small JJR cord-000317-pixbry0c 222 7 than than IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 222 8 other other JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 222 9 cities city NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 222 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 222 11 p p NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 222 12 ¼ ¼ CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 222 13 0.01 0.01 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 222 14 ) ) -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 222 15 but but CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 222 16 equally equally RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 222 17 distributed distribute VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 222 18 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 222 19 space space NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 222 20 ( ( -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 222 21 p p NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 222 22 ¼ ¼ CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 222 23 0.88 0.88 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 222 24 ) ) -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 222 25 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 222 26 time time NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 222 27 ( ( -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 222 28 p p NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 222 29 ¼ ¼ CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 222 30 0.06 0.06 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 222 31 ) ) -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 222 32 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 223 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 223 2 have have VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 223 3 tested test VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 223 4 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 223 5 effect effect NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 223 6 on on IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 223 7 parameter parameter NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 223 8 estimates estimate NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 223 9 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 223 10 England England NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 223 11 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 223 12 Wales Wales NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 223 13 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 223 14 relaxing relax VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 223 15 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 223 16 single single JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 223 17 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 223 18 introduction introduction NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 223 19 assumption assumption NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 223 20 inherent inherent JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 223 21 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 223 22 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 223 23 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 223 24 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 224 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 224 2 re re VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 224 3 - - VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 224 4 estimated estimate VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 224 5 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 224 6 parameters parameter NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 224 7 conditioning condition VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 224 8 on on IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 224 9 infections infection NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 224 10 that that WDT cord-000317-pixbry0c 224 11 occurred occur VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 224 12 from from IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 224 13 week week NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 224 14 3 3 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 224 15 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 224 16 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 224 17 epidemic epidemic NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 224 18 onward onward RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 224 19 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 225 1 There there EX cord-000317-pixbry0c 225 2 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 225 3 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 225 4 small small JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 225 5 increase increase NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 225 6 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 225 7 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 225 8 kernel kernel NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 225 9 power power NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 225 10 parameter parameter NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 225 11 estimate estimate NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 225 12 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 225 13 which which WDT cord-000317-pixbry0c 225 14 causes cause VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 225 15 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 225 16 kernel kernel NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 225 17 to to TO cord-000317-pixbry0c 225 18 decay decay VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 225 19 more more RBR cord-000317-pixbry0c 225 20 rapidly rapidly RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 225 21 with with IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 225 22 distance distance NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 225 23 ( ( -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 225 24 electronic electronic JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 225 25 supplementary supplementary JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 225 26 material material NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 225 27 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 225 28 figure figure NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 225 29 S9 S9 NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 225 30 ) ) -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 225 31 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 226 1 This this DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 226 2 suggests suggest VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 226 3 that that IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 226 4 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 226 5 very very RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 226 6 long long JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 226 7 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 226 8 range range NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 226 9 interactions interaction NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 226 10 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 226 11 which which WDT cord-000317-pixbry0c 226 12 are be VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 226 13 forced force VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 226 14 to to TO cord-000317-pixbry0c 226 15 occur occur VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 226 16 early early RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 226 17 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 226 18 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 226 19 epidemic epidemic NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 226 20 impact impact NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 226 21 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 226 22 shape shape NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 226 23 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 226 24 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 226 25 kernel kernel NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 226 26 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 227 1 However however RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 227 2 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 227 3 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 227 4 credible credible JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 227 5 intervals interval NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 227 6 largely largely RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 227 7 overlap overlap VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 227 8 which which WDT cord-000317-pixbry0c 227 9 indicates indicate VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 227 10 this this DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 227 11 assumption assumption NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 227 12 does do VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 227 13 not not RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 227 14 affect affect VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 227 15 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 227 16 fit fit NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 227 17 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 227 18 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 227 19 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 227 20 to to IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 227 21 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 227 22 large large JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 227 23 degree degree NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 227 24 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 228 1 In in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 228 2 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 228 3 US US NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 228 4 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 228 5 simulated simulate VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 228 6 curves curve NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 228 7 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 228 8 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 228 9 distance distance NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 228 10 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 228 11 only only JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 228 12 constant constant JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 228 13 infectivity infectivity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 228 14 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 228 15 are be VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 228 16 shown show VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 228 17 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 228 18 figure figure NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 228 19 5e 5e NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 228 20 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 228 21 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 228 22 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 228 23 England England NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 228 24 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 228 25 Wales Wales NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 228 26 parameters parameter NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 228 27 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 228 28 figure figure NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 228 29 5f 5f NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 228 30 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 229 1 In in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 229 2 both both DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 229 3 cases case NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 229 4 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 229 5 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 229 6 mean mean JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 229 7 simulated simulated JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 229 8 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 229 9 observed observed JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 229 10 curve curve NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 229 11 are be VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 229 12 very very RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 229 13 comparable comparable JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 229 14 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 229 15 with with IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 229 16 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 229 17 distance distance NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 229 18 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 229 19 only only JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 229 20 constant constant JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 229 21 infectivity infectivity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 229 22 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 229 23 giving give VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 229 24 peak peak NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 229 25 incidence incidence NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 229 26 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 229 27 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 229 28 same same JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 229 29 week week NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 229 30 as as IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 229 31 observed observe VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 229 32 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 230 1 Figure figure NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 230 2 5 5 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 230 3 g g NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 230 4 shows show VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 230 5 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 230 6 observed observed JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 230 7 week week NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 230 8 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 230 9 infection infection NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 230 10 against against IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 230 11 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 230 12 simulated simulated JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 230 13 week week NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 230 14 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 230 15 infection infection NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 230 16 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 230 17 all all DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 230 18 1000 1000 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 230 19 simulated simulate VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 230 20 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 230 21 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 231 1 There there EX cord-000317-pixbry0c 231 2 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 231 3 good good JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 231 4 correlation correlation NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 231 5 between between IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 231 6 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 231 7 observed observed JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 231 8 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 231 9 simulated simulated JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 231 10 weeks week NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 231 11 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 231 12 infection infection NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 231 13 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 231 14 both both DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 231 15 parametrizations parametrization NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 231 16 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 232 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 232 2 have have VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 232 3 tested test VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 232 4 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 232 5 effect effect NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 232 6 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 232 7 thinning thin VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 232 8 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 232 9 England England NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 232 10 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 232 11 Wales Wales NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 232 12 dataset dataset NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 232 13 so so IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 232 14 that that IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 232 15 it -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 232 16 more more RBR cord-000317-pixbry0c 232 17 closely closely RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 232 18 resembles resemble VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 232 19 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 232 20 US US NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 232 21 dataset dataset NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 232 22 to to TO cord-000317-pixbry0c 232 23 determine determine VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 232 24 if if IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 232 25 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 232 26 differences difference NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 232 27 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 232 28 formulation formulation NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 232 29 between between IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 232 30 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 232 31 best good JJS cord-000317-pixbry0c 232 32 models model NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 232 33 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 232 34 each each DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 232 35 dataset dataset NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 232 36 are be VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 232 37 owing owe VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 232 38 to to IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 232 39 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 232 40 smaller small JJR cord-000317-pixbry0c 232 41 number number NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 232 42 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 232 43 cities city NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 232 44 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 232 45 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 232 46 US US NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 232 47 dataset dataset NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 232 48 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 233 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 233 2 removed remove VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 233 3 all all DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 233 4 cities city NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 233 5 with with IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 233 6 fewer few JJR cord-000317-pixbry0c 233 7 than than IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 233 8 90 90 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 233 9 000 000 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 233 10 inhabitants inhabitant NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 233 11 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 233 12 England England NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 233 13 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 233 14 Wales Wales NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 233 15 leaving leave VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 233 16 46 46 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 233 17 cities city NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 233 18 distributed distribute VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 233 19 quite quite RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 233 20 evenly evenly RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 233 21 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 233 22 England England NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 233 23 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 233 24 Wales Wales NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 233 25 as as IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 233 26 shown show VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 233 27 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 233 28 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 233 29 electronic electronic JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 233 30 supplementary supplementary JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 233 31 material material NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 233 32 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 233 33 figure figure NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 233 34 S10 S10 NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 233 35 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 234 1 There there EX cord-000317-pixbry0c 234 2 were be VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 234 3 identifiability identifiability NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 234 4 problems problem NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 234 5 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 234 6 estimating estimate VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 234 7 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 234 8 density density NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 234 9 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 234 10 dependence dependence NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 234 11 parameter parameter NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 234 12 1 1 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 234 13 using use VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 234 14 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 234 15 thinned thin VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 234 16 dataset dataset NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 234 17 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 235 1 The the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 235 2 best good JJS cord-000317-pixbry0c 235 3 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 235 4 by by IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 235 5 DIC DIC NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 235 6 comparison comparison NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 235 7 gave give VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 235 8 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 235 9 distance distance NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 235 10 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 235 11 only only RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 235 12 interaction interaction NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 235 13 ( ( -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 235 14 no no DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 235 15 dependence dependence NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 235 16 on on IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 235 17 population population NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 235 18 size size NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 235 19 ) ) -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 235 20 with with IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 235 21 infectivity infectivity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 235 22 scaling scale VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 235 23 linearly linearly RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 235 24 with with IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 235 25 mortality mortality NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 235 26 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 235 27 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 235 28 density density NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 235 29 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 235 30 independent independent JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 235 31 framework framework NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 235 32 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 236 1 As as IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 236 2 we -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 236 3 found find VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 236 4 with with IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 236 5 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 236 6 US US NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 236 7 data datum NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 236 8 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 236 9 it -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 236 10 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 236 11 difficult difficult JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 236 12 to to TO cord-000317-pixbry0c 236 13 disentangle disentangle VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 236 14 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 236 15 effects effect NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 236 16 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 236 17 population population NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 236 18 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 236 19 infectivity infectivity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 236 20 parameters parameter NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 236 21 because because IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 236 22 these these DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 236 23 feature feature NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 236 24 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 236 25 different different JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 236 26 combinations combination NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 236 27 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 236 28 comparable comparable JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 236 29 DIC DIC NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 236 30 models model NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 236 31 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 237 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 237 2 have have VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 237 3 presented present VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 237 4 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 237 5 statistical statistical JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 237 6 analysis analysis NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 237 7 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 237 8 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 237 9 spatiotemporal spatiotemporal JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 237 10 spread spread NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 237 11 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 237 12 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 237 13 1918 1918 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 237 14 influenza influenza NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 237 15 pandemic pandemic NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 237 16 between between IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 237 17 cities city NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 237 18 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 237 19 England England NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 237 20 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 237 21 Wales Wales NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 237 22 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 237 23 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 237 24 US US NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 237 25 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 238 1 The the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 238 2 results result NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 238 3 demonstrate demonstrate VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 238 4 that that IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 238 5 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 238 6 England England NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 238 7 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 238 8 Wales Wales NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 238 9 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 238 10 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 238 11 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 238 12 with with IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 238 13 intermediate intermediate JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 238 14 levels level NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 238 15 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 238 16 density density NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 238 17 dependence dependence NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 238 18 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 238 19 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 238 20 connectivity connectivity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 238 21 between between IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 238 22 cities city NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 238 23 gives give VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 238 24 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 238 25 best good JJS cord-000317-pixbry0c 238 26 fit fit NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 238 27 to to IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 238 28 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 238 29 observed observed JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 238 30 pattern pattern NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 238 31 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 239 1 For for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 239 2 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 239 3 US US NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 239 4 dataset dataset NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 239 5 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 239 6 where where WRB cord-000317-pixbry0c 239 7 there there EX cord-000317-pixbry0c 239 8 are be VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 239 9 few few JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 239 10 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 239 11 large large JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 239 12 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 239 13 widely widely RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 239 14 spaced spaced JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 239 15 population population NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 239 16 centres centre NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 239 17 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 239 18 estimating estimate VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 239 19 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 239 20 degree degree NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 239 21 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 239 22 density density NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 239 23 dependence dependence NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 239 24 does do VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 239 25 not not RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 239 26 improve improve VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 239 27 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 239 28 fit fit NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 239 29 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 240 1 In in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 240 2 both both DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 240 3 contexts context NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 240 4 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 240 5 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 240 6 population population NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 240 7 size size NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 240 8 affects affect VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 240 9 inter inter JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 240 10 - - JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 240 11 city city JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 240 12 coupling coupling NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 240 13 sub sub NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 240 14 - - NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 240 15 linearly linearly RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 240 16 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 241 1 Parameter parameter NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 241 2 estimates estimate NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 241 3 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 241 4 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 241 5 formulation formulation NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 241 6 inferred infer VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 241 7 from from IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 241 8 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 241 9 data datum NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 241 10 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 241 11 England England NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 241 12 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 241 13 Wales Wales NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 241 14 explain explain VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 241 15 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 241 16 US US NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 241 17 dataset dataset NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 241 18 well well RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 241 19 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 242 1 Gravity gravity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 242 2 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 242 3 parameter parameter NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 242 4 estimates estimate NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 242 5 generated generate VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 242 6 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 242 7 this this DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 242 8 study study NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 242 9 are be VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 242 10 comparable comparable JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 242 11 with with IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 242 12 values value NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 242 13 found find VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 242 14 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 242 15 studies study NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 242 16 describing describe VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 242 17 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 242 18 spread spread NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 242 19 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 242 20 seasonal seasonal JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 242 21 influenza influenza NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 242 22 [ [ -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 242 23 5 5 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 242 24 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 242 25 44 44 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 242 26 ] ] -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 242 27 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 243 1 Our -PRON- PRP$ cord-000317-pixbry0c 243 2 analysis analysis NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 243 3 demonstrates demonstrate VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 243 4 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 243 5 degree degree NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 243 6 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 243 7 spatial spatial JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 243 8 locality locality NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 243 9 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 243 10 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 243 11 large large JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 243 12 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 243 13 scale scale NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 243 14 geographical geographical JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 243 15 spread spread NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 243 16 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 243 17 influenza influenza NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 243 18 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 243 19 both both CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 243 20 England England NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 243 21 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 243 22 Wales Wales NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 243 23 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 243 24 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 243 25 US US NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 243 26 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 243 27 1918 1918 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 243 28 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 244 1 However however RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 244 2 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 244 3 it -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 244 4 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 244 5 difficult difficult JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 244 6 to to TO cord-000317-pixbry0c 244 7 directly directly RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 244 8 compare compare VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 244 9 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 244 10 kernel kernel NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 244 11 power power NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 244 12 estimate estimate NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 244 13 from from IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 244 14 this this DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 244 15 study study NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 244 16 with with IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 244 17 those those DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 244 18 from from IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 244 19 other other JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 244 20 studies study NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 244 21 owing owe VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 244 22 to to IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 244 23 differences difference NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 244 24 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 244 25 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 244 26 functional functional JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 244 27 forms form NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 244 28 used use VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 244 29 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 245 1 For for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 245 2 instance instance NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 245 3 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 245 4 Viboud Viboud NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 245 5 et et NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 245 6 al al NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 245 7 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 246 1 [ [ -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 246 2 5 5 LS cord-000317-pixbry0c 246 3 ] ] -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 246 4 estimate estimate VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 246 5 two two CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 246 6 power power NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 246 7 parameters parameter NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 246 8 above above IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 246 9 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 246 10 below below IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 246 11 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 246 12 given give VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 246 13 distance distance NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 246 14 threshold threshold NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 246 15 when when WRB cord-000317-pixbry0c 246 16 modelling model VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 246 17 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 246 18 spread spread NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 246 19 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 246 20 seasonal seasonal JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 246 21 influenza influenza NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 246 22 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 246 23 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 246 24 US US NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 246 25 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 247 1 Gravity gravity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 247 2 models model NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 247 3 used use VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 247 4 to to TO cord-000317-pixbry0c 247 5 describe describe VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 247 6 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 247 7 spread spread NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 247 8 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 247 9 measles measle NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 247 10 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 247 11 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 247 12 UK UK NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 247 13 by by IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 247 14 Xia Xia NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 247 15 et et NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 247 16 al al NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 247 17 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 248 1 [ [ -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 248 2 18 18 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 248 3 ] ] -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 248 4 assumed assume VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 248 5 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 248 6 kernel kernel NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 248 7 power power NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 248 8 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 248 9 1 1 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 248 10 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 248 11 rather rather RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 248 12 than than IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 248 13 fitting fit VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 248 14 this this DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 248 15 parameter parameter NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 248 16 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 249 1 The the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 249 2 distance distance NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 249 3 power power NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 249 4 estimates estimate NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 249 5 we -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 249 6 found find VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 249 7 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 249 8 England England NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 249 9 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 249 10 Wales Wales NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 249 11 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 249 12 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 249 13 US US NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 249 14 are be VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 249 15 quite quite RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 249 16 different different JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 249 17 from from IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 249 18 each each DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 249 19 other other JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 249 20 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 250 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 250 2 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 250 3 not not RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 250 4 surprising surprising JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 250 5 that that IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 250 6 there there EX cord-000317-pixbry0c 250 7 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 250 8 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 250 9 disparity disparity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 250 10 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 250 11 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 250 12 distance distance NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 250 13 kernel kernel NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 250 14 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 250 15 England England NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 250 16 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 250 17 Wales Wales NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 250 18 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 250 19 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 250 20 US US NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 250 21 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 250 22 as as IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 250 23 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 250 24 spatial spatial JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 250 25 scale scale NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 250 26 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 250 27 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 250 28 US US NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 250 29 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 250 30 much much RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 250 31 larger large JJR cord-000317-pixbry0c 250 32 than than IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 250 33 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 250 34 England England NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 250 35 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 250 36 Wales Wales NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 250 37 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 251 1 In in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 251 2 comparing compare VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 251 3 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 251 4 US US NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 251 5 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 251 6 UK UK NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 251 7 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 251 8 it -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 251 9 should should MD cord-000317-pixbry0c 251 10 be be VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 251 11 noted note VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 251 12 that that IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 251 13 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 251 14 mean mean JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 251 15 distance distance NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 251 16 between between IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 251 17 cities city NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 251 18 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 251 19 of of RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 251 20 course course NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 251 21 much much RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 251 22 larger large JJR cord-000317-pixbry0c 251 23 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 251 24 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 251 25 US US NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 251 26 ( ( -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 251 27 see see VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 251 28 electronic electronic JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 251 29 supplementary supplementary JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 251 30 material material NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 251 31 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 251 32 table table NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 251 33 S1 S1 NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 251 34 ) ) -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 251 35 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 252 1 In in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 252 2 theory theory NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 252 3 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 252 4 this this DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 252 5 gives give VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 252 6 better well JJR cord-000317-pixbry0c 252 7 resolution resolution NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 252 8 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 252 9 estimating estimate VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 252 10 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 252 11 kernel kernel NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 252 12 shape shape NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 252 13 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 252 14 as as IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 252 15 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 252 16 range range NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 252 17 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 252 18 inter inter JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 252 19 - - JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 252 20 city city JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 252 21 separations separation NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 252 22 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 252 23 an an DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 252 24 order order NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 252 25 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 252 26 magnitude magnitude NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 252 27 larger large JJR cord-000317-pixbry0c 252 28 than than IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 252 29 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 252 30 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 252 31 UK UK NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 252 32 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 253 1 However however RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 253 2 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 253 3 this this DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 253 4 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 253 5 counterbalanced counterbalance VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 253 6 by by IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 253 7 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 253 8 smaller small JJR cord-000317-pixbry0c 253 9 size size NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 253 10 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 253 11 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 253 12 US US NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 253 13 dataset dataset NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 253 14 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 253 15 which which WDT cord-000317-pixbry0c 253 16 reduces reduce VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 253 17 inferential inferential JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 253 18 power power NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 253 19 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 254 1 The the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 254 2 low low JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 254 3 kernel kernel NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 254 4 power power NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 254 5 parameter parameter NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 254 6 estimates estimate NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 254 7 we -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 254 8 have have VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 254 9 found find VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 254 10 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 254 11 both both DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 254 12 England England NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 254 13 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 254 14 Wales Wales NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 254 15 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 254 16 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 254 17 US US NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 254 18 suggests suggest VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 254 19 that that IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 254 20 long long JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 254 21 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 254 22 distance distance NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 254 23 interactions interaction NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 254 24 were be VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 254 25 important important JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 254 26 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 254 27 spreading spread VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 254 28 influenza influenza NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 254 29 between between IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 254 30 distant distant JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 254 31 cities city NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 254 32 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 254 33 both both DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 254 34 countries country NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 254 35 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 255 1 At at IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 255 2 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 255 3 start start NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 255 4 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 255 5 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 255 6 major major JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 255 7 autumn autumn NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 255 8 wave wave NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 255 9 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 255 10 1918 1918 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 255 11 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 255 12 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 255 13 armistice armistice NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 255 14 was be VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 255 15 more more JJR cord-000317-pixbry0c 255 16 than than IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 255 17 two two CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 255 18 months month NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 255 19 away away RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 255 20 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 255 21 it -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 255 22 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 255 23 likely likely JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 255 24 that that DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 255 25 travel travel NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 255 26 relating relate VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 255 27 to to IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 255 28 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 255 29 war war NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 255 30 effort effort NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 255 31 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 255 32 including include VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 255 33 troop troop NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 255 34 movements movement NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 255 35 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 255 36 might may MD cord-000317-pixbry0c 255 37 have have VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 255 38 enhanced enhance VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 255 39 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 255 40 frequency frequency NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 255 41 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 255 42 long long JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 255 43 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 255 44 distance distance NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 255 45 movements movement NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 255 46 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 256 1 Density density NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 256 2 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 256 3 dependent dependent JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 256 4 gravity gravity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 256 5 models model NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 256 6 are be VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 256 7 frequently frequently RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 256 8 used use VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 256 9 to to TO cord-000317-pixbry0c 256 10 explain explain VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 256 11 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 256 12 connectivity connectivity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 256 13 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 256 14 urban urban JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 256 15 centres centre NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 256 16 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 256 17 human human JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 256 18 diseases disease NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 256 19 [ [ -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 256 20 5 5 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 256 21 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 256 22 18 18 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 256 23 ] ] -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 256 24 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 257 1 There there EX cord-000317-pixbry0c 257 2 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 257 3 good good JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 257 4 evidence evidence NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 257 5 from from IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 257 6 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 257 7 estimates estimate NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 257 8 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 257 9 1 1 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 257 10 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 257 11 this this DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 257 12 analysis analysis NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 257 13 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 257 14 England England NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 257 15 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 257 16 Wales Wales NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 257 17 that that IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 257 18 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 257 19 density density NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 257 20 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 257 21 dependent dependent JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 257 22 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 257 23 underestimates underestimate VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 257 24 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 257 25 total total JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 257 26 force force NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 257 27 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 257 28 infection infection NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 257 29 on on IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 257 30 remote remote JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 257 31 cities city NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 257 32 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 258 1 The the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 258 2 95 95 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 258 3 per per IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 258 4 cent cent NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 258 5 credible credible JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 258 6 interval interval NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 258 7 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 258 8 1 1 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 258 9 includes include VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 258 10 1 1 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 258 11 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 258 12 which which WDT cord-000317-pixbry0c 258 13 indicates indicate VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 258 14 that that IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 258 15 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 258 16 density density NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 258 17 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 258 18 independent independent JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 258 19 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 258 20 formulation formulation NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 258 21 can can MD cord-000317-pixbry0c 258 22 not not RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 258 23 be be VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 258 24 definitively definitively RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 258 25 excluded exclude VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 258 26 as as IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 258 27 an an DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 258 28 explanation explanation NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 258 29 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 258 30 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 258 31 data datum NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 258 32 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 259 1 There there EX cord-000317-pixbry0c 259 2 was be VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 259 3 limited limit VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 259 4 statistical statistical JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 259 5 power power NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 259 6 to to TO cord-000317-pixbry0c 259 7 estimate estimate VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 259 8 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 259 9 degree degree NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 259 10 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 259 11 density density NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 259 12 dependence dependence NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 259 13 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 259 14 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 259 15 US US NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 259 16 context context NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 259 17 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 259 18 but but CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 259 19 use use NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 259 20 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 259 21 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 259 22 England England NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 259 23 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 259 24 Wales Wales NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 259 25 best well RBS cord-000317-pixbry0c 259 26 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 259 27 fit fit JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 259 28 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 259 29 to to TO cord-000317-pixbry0c 259 30 describe describe VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 259 31 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 259 32 US US NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 259 33 data datum NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 259 34 gave give VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 259 35 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 259 36 very very RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 259 37 similar similar JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 259 38 DIC DIC NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 259 39 to to IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 259 40 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 259 41 best good JJS cord-000317-pixbry0c 259 42 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 259 43 fit fit JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 259 44 US US NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 259 45 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 259 46 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 260 1 Hence hence RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 260 2 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 260 3 it -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 260 4 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 260 5 not not RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 260 6 clear clear JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 260 7 if if IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 260 8 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 260 9 difference difference NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 260 10 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 260 11 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 260 12 estimated estimate VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 260 13 density density NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 260 14 dependence dependence NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 260 15 found find VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 260 16 between between IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 260 17 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 260 18 US US NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 260 19 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 260 20 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 260 21 England England NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 260 22 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 260 23 Wales Wales NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 260 24 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 260 25 because because IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 260 26 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 260 27 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 260 28 large large JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 260 29 differences difference NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 260 30 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 260 31 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 260 32 degree degree NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 260 33 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 260 34 population population NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 260 35 coverage coverage NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 260 36 between between IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 260 37 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 260 38 US US NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 260 39 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 260 40 England England NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 260 41 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 260 42 Wales Wales NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 260 43 datasets dataset NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 260 44 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 261 1 Our -PRON- PRP$ cord-000317-pixbry0c 261 2 results result NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 261 3 using use VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 261 4 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 261 5 subset subset NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 261 6 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 261 7 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 261 8 England England NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 261 9 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 261 10 Wales Wales NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 261 11 dataset dataset NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 261 12 suggest suggest VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 261 13 that that IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 261 14 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 261 15 degree degree NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 261 16 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 261 17 density density NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 261 18 dependence dependence NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 261 19 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 261 20 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 261 21 difficult difficult JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 261 22 parameter parameter NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 261 23 to to TO cord-000317-pixbry0c 261 24 estimate estimate VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 261 25 when when WRB cord-000317-pixbry0c 261 26 coverage coverage NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 261 27 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 261 28 low low JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 261 29 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 262 1 The the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 262 2 low low JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 262 3 power power NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 262 4 on on IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 262 5 destination destination NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 262 6 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 262 7 size size NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 262 8 found find VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 262 9 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 262 10 fitting fit VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 262 11 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 262 12 gravity gravity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 262 13 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 262 14 to to IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 262 15 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 262 16 England England NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 262 17 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 262 18 Wales Wales NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 262 19 dataset dataset NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 262 20 shows show VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 262 21 that that IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 262 22 connectivity connectivity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 262 23 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 262 24 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 262 25 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 262 26 increases increase VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 262 27 sub sub NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 262 28 - - JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 262 29 linearly linearly RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 262 30 with with IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 262 31 population population NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 262 32 increase increase NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 262 33 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 263 1 When when WRB cord-000317-pixbry0c 263 2 modelling model VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 263 3 spread spread NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 263 4 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 263 5 influenza influenza NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 263 6 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 263 7 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 263 8 US US NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 263 9 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 263 10 Viboud Viboud NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 263 11 et et NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 263 12 al al NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 263 13 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 264 1 [ [ -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 264 2 5 5 LS cord-000317-pixbry0c 264 3 ] ] -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 264 4 found find VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 264 5 very very RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 264 6 comparable comparable JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 264 7 low low JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 264 8 values value NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 264 9 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 264 10 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 264 11 population population NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 264 12 exponents exponent NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 264 13 with with IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 264 14 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 264 15 infectious infectious JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 264 16 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 264 17 lower low JJR cord-000317-pixbry0c 264 18 than than IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 264 19 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 264 20 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 264 21 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 265 1 Differing differ VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 265 2 results result NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 265 3 come come VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 265 4 from from IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 265 5 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 265 6 analysis analysis NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 265 7 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 265 8 measles measles NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 265 9 data datum NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 265 10 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 265 11 Great Great NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 265 12 Britain Britain NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 265 13 with with IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 265 14 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 265 15 power power NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 265 16 coefficient coefficient NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 265 17 on on IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 265 18 infectious infectious JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 265 19 populations population NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 265 20 estimated estimate VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 265 21 at at IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 265 22 approximately approximately RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 265 23 1.5 1.5 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 265 24 [ [ -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 265 25 18 18 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 265 26 ] ] -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 265 27 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 266 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 266 2 found find VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 266 3 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 266 4 best well RBS cord-000317-pixbry0c 266 5 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 266 6 fit fit JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 266 7 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 266 8 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 266 9 England England NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 266 10 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 266 11 Wales Wales NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 266 12 does do VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 266 13 not not RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 266 14 include include VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 266 15 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 266 16 population population NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 266 17 size size NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 266 18 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 266 19 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 266 20 infector infector NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 266 21 ( ( -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 266 22 origin origin NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 266 23 ) ) -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 266 24 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 266 25 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 266 26 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 266 27 result result NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 266 28 which which WDT cord-000317-pixbry0c 266 29 needs need VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 266 30 further further JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 266 31 examination examination NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 266 32 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 266 33 future future JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 266 34 work work NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 266 35 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 267 1 Differences difference NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 267 2 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 267 3 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-000317-pixbry0c 267 4 population population NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 267 5 parameter parameter NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 267 6 estimates estimate NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 267 7 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 267 8 those those DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 267 9 from from IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 267 10 studies study NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 267 11 on on IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 267 12 contemporary contemporary JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 267 13 populations population NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 267 14 are be VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 267 15 likely likely JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 267 16 to to TO cord-000317-pixbry0c 267 17 differ differ VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 267 18 owing owe VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 267 19 to to IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 267 20 changes change NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 267 21 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 267 22 human human JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 267 23 mobility mobility NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 267 24 patterns pattern NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 267 25 since since IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 267 26 1918 1918 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 267 27 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 268 1 Our -PRON- PRP$ cord-000317-pixbry0c 268 2 estimate estimate NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 268 3 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 268 4 England England NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 268 5 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 268 6 Wales Wales NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 268 7 that that IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 268 8 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 268 9 infectivity infectivity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 268 10 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 268 11 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 268 12 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 268 13 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 268 14 sub sub VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 268 15 - - JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 268 16 linearly linearly RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 268 17 related relate VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 268 18 to to IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 268 19 mortality mortality NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 268 20 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 268 21 suggests suggest VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 268 22 that that IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 268 23 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 268 24 rate rate NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 268 25 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 268 26 death death NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 268 27 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 268 28 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 268 29 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 268 30 is be VBZ cord-000317-pixbry0c 268 31 not not RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 268 32 as as RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 268 33 important important JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 268 34 to to IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 268 35 infectivity infectivity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 268 36 as as IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 268 37 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 268 38 presence presence NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 268 39 or or CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 268 40 absence absence NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 268 41 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 268 42 disease disease NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 268 43 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 269 1 Other other JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 269 2 studies study NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 269 3 have have VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 269 4 used use VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 269 5 constant constant JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 269 6 infectivity infectivity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 269 7 terms term NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 269 8 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 269 9 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 269 10 analysis analysis NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 269 11 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 269 12 human human JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 269 13 seasonal seasonal JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 269 14 influenza influenza NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 269 15 [ [ -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 269 16 21 21 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 269 17 ] ] -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 269 18 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 270 1 However however RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 270 2 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 270 3 our -PRON- PRP$ cord-000317-pixbry0c 270 4 estimates estimate NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 270 5 do do VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 270 6 support support VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 270 7 some some DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 270 8 level level NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 270 9 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 270 10 mortality mortality NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 270 11 dependence dependence NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 270 12 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 270 13 suggesting suggest VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 270 14 that that IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 270 15 cities city NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 270 16 with with IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 270 17 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 270 18 very very RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 270 19 high high JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 270 20 influenza influenza NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 270 21 burden burden NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 270 22 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 270 23 usually usually RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 270 24 later later RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 270 25 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 270 26 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 270 27 epidemic epidemic NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 270 28 wave wave NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 270 29 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 270 30 are be VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 270 31 more more RBR cord-000317-pixbry0c 270 32 infectious infectious JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 270 33 than than IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 270 34 newly newly RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 270 35 infected infect VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 270 36 cities city NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 270 37 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 271 1 In in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 271 2 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 271 3 US US NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 271 4 dataset dataset NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 271 5 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 271 6 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 271 7 best well RBS cord-000317-pixbry0c 271 8 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 271 9 fit fit JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 271 10 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 271 11 gave give VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 271 12 constant constant JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 271 13 infectiousness infectiousness NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 271 14 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 271 15 but but CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 271 16 again again RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 271 17 this this DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 271 18 may may MD cord-000317-pixbry0c 271 19 be be VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 271 20 due due JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 271 21 to to IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 271 22 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 271 23 lack lack NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 271 24 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 271 25 power power NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 271 26 to to TO cord-000317-pixbry0c 271 27 estimate estimate VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 271 28 such such JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 271 29 parameters parameter NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 271 30 from from IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 271 31 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 271 32 US US NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 271 33 dataset dataset NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 271 34 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 272 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 272 2 may may MD cord-000317-pixbry0c 272 3 also also RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 272 4 be be VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 272 5 caused cause VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 272 6 by by IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 272 7 non non JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 272 8 - - JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 272 9 uniform uniform JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 272 10 infection infection NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 272 11 pressure pressure NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 272 12 from from IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 272 13 cities city NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 272 14 not not RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 272 15 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 272 16 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 272 17 dataset dataset NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 272 18 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 272 19 which which WDT cord-000317-pixbry0c 272 20 could could MD cord-000317-pixbry0c 272 21 mask mask VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 272 22 an an DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 272 23 infectivity infectivity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 272 24 relationship relationship NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 272 25 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 272 26 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 272 27 cities city NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 272 28 that that WDT cord-000317-pixbry0c 272 29 are be VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 272 30 given give VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 272 31 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 273 1 Future future JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 273 2 possible possible JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 273 3 extensions extension NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 273 4 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 273 5 this this DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 273 6 work work NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 273 7 include include VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 273 8 relaxing relax VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 273 9 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 273 10 assumption assumption NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 273 11 that that IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 273 12 all all DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 273 13 cities city NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 273 14 were be VBD cord-000317-pixbry0c 273 15 equally equally RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 273 16 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 273 17 at at IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 273 18 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 273 19 start start NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 273 20 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 273 21 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 273 22 autumn autumn NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 273 23 wave wave NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 273 24 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 273 25 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 273 26 pandemic pandemic NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 273 27 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 274 1 The the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 274 2 variation variation NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 274 3 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 274 4 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 274 5 onset onset NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 274 6 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 274 7 infection infection NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 274 8 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 274 9 cities city NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 274 10 may may MD cord-000317-pixbry0c 274 11 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 274 12 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 274 13 part part NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 274 14 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 274 15 be be VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 274 16 due due JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 274 17 to to IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 274 18 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 274 19 differing differ VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 274 20 susceptibility susceptibility NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 274 21 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 274 22 each each DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 274 23 city city NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 274 24 owing owe VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 274 25 to to IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 274 26 differing differ VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 274 27 attack attack NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 274 28 rates rate NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 274 29 experienced experience VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 274 30 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 274 31 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 274 32 spring spring NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 274 33 -summer -summer NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 274 34 wave wave NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 274 35 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 274 36 or or CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 274 37 population population NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 274 38 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 274 39 level level NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 274 40 immunity immunity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 274 41 from from IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 274 42 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 274 43 1890 1890 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 274 44 pandemic pandemic NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 274 45 or or CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 274 46 seasonal seasonal JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 274 47 strains strain NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 274 48 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 275 1 However however RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 275 2 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 275 3 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 275 4 low low JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 275 5 case case NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 275 6 fatality fatality NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 275 7 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 275 8 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 275 9 first first JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 275 10 wave wave NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 275 11 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 275 12 age age NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 275 13 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 275 14 specificity specificity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 275 15 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 275 16 infection infection NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 275 17 between between IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 275 18 waves wave NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 275 19 need need VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 275 20 to to TO cord-000317-pixbry0c 275 21 be be VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 275 22 understood understand VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 275 23 before before IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 275 24 spatial spatial JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 275 25 heterogeneity heterogeneity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 275 26 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 275 27 susceptibility susceptibility NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 275 28 can can MD cord-000317-pixbry0c 275 29 be be VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 275 30 discerned discern VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 275 31 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 276 1 There there EX cord-000317-pixbry0c 276 2 are be VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 276 3 varying vary VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 276 4 reports report NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 276 5 on on IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 276 6 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 276 7 magnitude magnitude NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 276 8 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 276 9 mechanism mechanism NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 276 10 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 276 11 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 276 12 effect effect NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 276 13 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 276 14 infection infection NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 276 15 during during IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 276 16 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 276 17 first first JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 276 18 wave wave NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 276 19 on on IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 276 20 attack attack NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 276 21 rates rate NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 276 22 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 276 23 subsequent subsequent JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 276 24 waves wave NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 276 25 [ [ -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 276 26 24 24 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 276 27 ] ] -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 276 28 [ [ -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 276 29 25 25 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 276 30 ] ] -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 276 31 [ [ -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 276 32 26 26 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 276 33 ] ] -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 276 34 [ [ -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 276 35 45 45 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 276 36 ] ] -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 276 37 [ [ -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 276 38 46 46 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 276 39 ] ] -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 276 40 [ [ -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 276 41 47 47 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 276 42 ] ] -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 276 43 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 277 1 Further further JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 277 2 analysis analysis NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 277 3 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 277 4 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 277 5 datasets dataset NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 277 6 considered consider VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 277 7 here here RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 277 8 may may MD cord-000317-pixbry0c 277 9 provide provide VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 277 10 an an DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 277 11 opportunity opportunity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 277 12 to to TO cord-000317-pixbry0c 277 13 disentangle disentangle VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 277 14 these these DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 277 15 effects effect NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 277 16 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 277 17 _SP cord-000317-pixbry0c 278 1 Transmission transmission NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 278 2 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 278 3 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 278 4 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 278 5 etiological etiological JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 278 6 agent agent NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 278 7 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 278 8 SARS SARS NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 278 9 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 278 10 Hong Hong NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 278 11 Kong Kong NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 278 12 : : : cord-000317-pixbry0c 278 13 impact impact NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 278 14 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 278 15 public public JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 278 16 health health NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 278 17 interventions intervention NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 278 18 Strategies strategy NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 278 19 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 278 20 containing contain VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 278 21 an an DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 278 22 emerging emerge VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 278 23 influenza influenza NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 278 24 pandemic pandemic NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 278 25 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 278 26 Southeast Southeast NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 278 27 Asia Asia NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 278 28 Strategies Strategies NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 278 29 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 278 30 mitigating mitigate VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 278 31 an an DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 278 32 influenza influenza NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 278 33 pandemic pandemic JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 278 34 Mitigation mitigation NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 278 35 strategies strategy NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 278 36 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 278 37 pandemic pandemic NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 278 38 influenza influenza NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 278 39 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 278 40 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 278 41 United United NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 278 42 States States NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 278 43 Synchrony Synchrony NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 278 44 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 278 45 waves wave NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 278 46 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 278 47 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 278 48 spatial spatial JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 278 49 hierarchies hierarchy NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 278 50 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 278 51 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 278 52 spread spread NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 278 53 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 278 54 influenza influenza NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 1 The the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 2 role role NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 3 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 4 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 5 airline airline NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 6 transportation transportation NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 7 network network NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 8 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 9 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 10 prediction prediction NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 11 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 12 predictability predictability NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 13 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 14 global global JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 15 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 16 Simulating simulate VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 17 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 18 effect effect NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 19 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 20 quarantine quarantine NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 21 on on IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 22 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 23 spread spread NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 24 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 25 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 26 1918 1918 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 27 - - SYM cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 28 19 19 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 29 flu flu NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 30 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 31 central central JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 32 Canada Canada NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 33 Forecast Forecast NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 34 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 35 control control NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 36 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 37 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 38 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 39 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 40 globalized globalized JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 41 world world NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 42 Delaying delay VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 43 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 44 international international JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 45 spread spread NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 46 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 47 pandemic pandemic NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 48 influenza influenza NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 49 Predictability predictability NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 50 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 51 epidemic epidemic NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 52 pathways pathway NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 53 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 54 global global JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 55 outbreaks outbreak NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 56 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 57 infectious infectious JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 58 diseases disease NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 59 : : : cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 60 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 61 SARS SARS NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 62 case case NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 63 study study VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 64 Frequent frequent JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 65 travelers traveler NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 66 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 67 rate rate NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 68 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 69 spread spread NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 70 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 279 71 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 280 1 Pandemic pandemic NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 280 2 potential potential NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 280 3 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 280 4 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 280 5 strain strain NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 280 6 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 280 7 influenza influenza NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 280 8 A a NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 280 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 280 10 H1N1 H1N1 NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 280 11 ) ) -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 280 12 : : : cord-000317-pixbry0c 280 13 early early JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 280 14 findings finding NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 280 15 Spread Spread NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 280 16 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 280 17 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 280 18 novel novel JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 280 19 influenza influenza NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 280 20 A a NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 280 21 ( ( -LRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 280 22 H1N1 H1N1 NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 280 23 ) ) -RRB- cord-000317-pixbry0c 280 24 virus virus NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 280 25 via via IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 280 26 global global JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 280 27 airline airline NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 280 28 transportation transportation NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 281 1 The the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 281 2 interactance interactance NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 281 3 hypothesis hypothesis NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 281 4 : : : cord-000317-pixbry0c 281 5 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 281 6 gravity gravity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 281 7 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 281 8 fitting fit VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 281 9 physical physical JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 281 10 masses masse NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 281 11 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 281 12 human human JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 281 13 groups group NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 282 1 The the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 282 2 geography geography NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 282 3 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 282 4 transport transport NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 282 5 systems system NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 282 6 Diffusion diffusion NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 282 7 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 282 8 ecological ecological JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 282 9 problems problem NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 282 10 : : : cord-000317-pixbry0c 282 11 mathematical mathematical JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 282 12 models model NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 283 1 The the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 283 2 gravity gravity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 283 3 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 283 4 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 283 5 transportation transportation NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 283 6 analysis analysis NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 283 7 : : : cord-000317-pixbry0c 283 8 theory theory NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 283 9 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 283 10 extensions extension NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 283 11 Measles Measles NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 283 12 metapopulation metapopulation NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 283 13 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 283 14 : : : cord-000317-pixbry0c 283 15 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 283 16 gravity gravity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 283 17 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 283 18 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 283 19 epidemiological epidemiological JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 283 20 coupling coupling NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 283 21 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 283 22 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 284 1 The the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 284 2 foot foot NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 284 3 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 284 4 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 284 5 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 284 6 mouth mouth NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 284 7 epidemic epidemic NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 284 8 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 284 9 Great Great NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 284 10 Britain Britain NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 284 11 : : : cord-000317-pixbry0c 284 12 pattern pattern NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 284 13 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 284 14 spread spread NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 284 15 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 284 16 impact impact NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 284 17 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 284 18 interventions intervention NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 284 19 Dynamics dynamic NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 284 20 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 284 21 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 284 22 2001 2001 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 284 23 UK UK NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 284 24 foot foot NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 284 25 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 284 26 mouth mouth NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 284 27 epidemic epidemic NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 284 28 : : : cord-000317-pixbry0c 284 29 stochastic stochastic JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 284 30 dispersal dispersal NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 284 31 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 284 32 a a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 284 33 heterogeneous heterogeneous JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 284 34 landscape landscape NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 285 1 An an DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 285 2 exploratory exploratory JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 285 3 method method NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 285 4 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 285 5 estimating estimate VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 285 6 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 285 7 changing change VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 285 8 speed speed NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 285 9 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 285 10 epidemic epidemic NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 285 11 waves wave NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 285 12 from from IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 285 13 historical historical JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 285 14 data datum NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 286 1 The the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 286 2 1918 1918 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 286 3 - - SYM cord-000317-pixbry0c 286 4 1919 1919 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 286 5 influenza influenza NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 286 6 pandemic pandemic NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 286 7 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 286 8 England England NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 286 9 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 286 10 Wales Wales NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 286 11 : : : cord-000317-pixbry0c 286 12 spatial spatial JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 286 13 patterns pattern NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 286 14 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 286 15 transmissibility transmissibility NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 286 16 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 286 17 mortality mortality NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 286 18 impact impact NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 286 19 Lessons lesson NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 286 20 from from IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 286 21 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 286 22 past past NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 286 23 : : : cord-000317-pixbry0c 286 24 familial familial JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 286 25 aggregation aggregation NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 286 26 analysis analysis NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 286 27 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 286 28 fatal fatal JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 286 29 pandemic pandemic NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 286 30 influenza influenza NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 286 31 Report report VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 286 32 on on IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 286 33 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 286 34 pandemic pandemic NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 286 35 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 286 36 influenza influenza NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 286 37 1918 1918 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 286 38 - - SYM cord-000317-pixbry0c 286 39 19 19 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 286 40 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 287 1 London London NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 287 2 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 287 3 UK UK NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 287 4 : : : cord-000317-pixbry0c 288 1 His -PRON- PRP$ cord-000317-pixbry0c 288 2 Majesty Majesty NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 288 3 's 's POS cord-000317-pixbry0c 288 4 Stationery Stationery NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 288 5 Office Office NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 288 6 Epidemiologic epidemiologic JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 288 7 characterization characterization NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 288 8 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 288 9 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 288 10 1918 1918 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 288 11 influenza influenza NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 288 12 pandemic pandemic NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 288 13 summer summer NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 288 14 wave wave NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 288 15 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 288 16 Copenhagen Copenhagen NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 288 17 : : : cord-000317-pixbry0c 288 18 implications implication NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 288 19 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 288 20 pandemic pandemic NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 288 21 control control NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 288 22 strategies strategies NNPS cord-000317-pixbry0c 288 23 Cross Cross NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 288 24 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 288 25 protection protection NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 288 26 between between IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 288 27 successive successive JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 288 28 waves wave NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 288 29 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 288 30 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 288 31 1918 1918 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 288 32 - - SYM cord-000317-pixbry0c 288 33 1919 1919 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 288 34 influenza influenza NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 288 35 pandemic pandemic NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 288 36 : : : cord-000317-pixbry0c 288 37 epidemiological epidemiological JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 288 38 evidence evidence NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 288 39 from from IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 288 40 US US NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 288 41 Army Army NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 288 42 camps camp NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 288 43 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 288 44 from from IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 288 45 Britain Britain NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 289 1 The the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 289 2 effect effect NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 289 3 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 289 4 public public JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 289 5 health health NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 289 6 measures measure NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 289 7 on on IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 289 8 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 289 9 1918 1918 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 289 10 influenza influenza NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 289 11 pandemic pandemic NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 289 12 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 289 13 US US NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 289 14 cities city NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 289 15 Public public JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 289 16 health health NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 289 17 interventions intervention NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 289 18 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 289 19 epidemic epidemic NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 289 20 intensity intensity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 289 21 during during IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 289 22 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 289 23 1918 1918 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 289 24 influenza influenza NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 289 25 pandemic pandemic NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 289 26 Supplement Supplement NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 289 27 to to IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 289 28 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 289 29 Eighty Eighty NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 289 30 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 289 31 First First NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 289 32 Annual Annual NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 289 33 Report Report NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 289 34 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 289 35 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 289 36 Registrar Registrar NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 289 37 General General NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 289 38 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 289 39 Births Births NNPS cord-000317-pixbry0c 289 40 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 289 41 Deaths death NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 289 42 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 289 43 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 289 44 Marriages Marriages NNPS cord-000317-pixbry0c 289 45 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 289 46 England England NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 289 47 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 289 48 Wales Wales NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 289 49 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 1 Report report VB cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 2 on on IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 3 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 4 Mortality mortality NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 5 from from IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 6 Influenza Influenza NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 7 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 8 England England NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 9 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 10 Wales Wales NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 11 during during IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 12 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 13 Epidemic epidemic NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 14 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 15 1918 1918 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 16 - - SYM cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 17 19 19 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 18 The the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 19 influenza influenza NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 20 epidemic epidemic NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 21 Mortality mortality NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 22 from from IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 23 influenza influenza NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 24 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 25 pneumonia pneumonia NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 26 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 27 50 50 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 28 large large JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 29 cities city NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 30 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 31 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 32 United United NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 33 States States NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 34 Weekly Weekly NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 35 Health Health NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 36 Index Index NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 37 Weekly Weekly NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 38 Health Health NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 39 Index Index NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 40 Transmissibility Transmissibility NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 41 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 42 1918 1918 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 43 pandemic pandemic NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 44 influenza influenza NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 45 Deaths death NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 46 from from IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 47 bacterial bacterial JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 48 pneumonia pneumonia NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 49 during during IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 50 1918 1918 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 51 - - SYM cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 52 19 19 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 53 influenza influenza NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 54 pandemic pandemic NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 55 Time time NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 56 from from IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 57 illness illness NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 58 onset onset NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 59 to to IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 60 death death NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 61 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 62 1918 1918 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 63 influenza influenza NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 64 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 65 pneumococcal pneumococcal JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 66 pneumonia pneumonia NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 67 Monte Monte NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 68 Carlo Carlo NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 69 sampling sampling NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 70 methods method NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 71 using use VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 72 Markov Markov NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 73 chains chain NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 74 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 75 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 76 applications application NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 77 Markov Markov NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 78 chain chain NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 79 Monte Monte NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 80 Carlo Carlo NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 81 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 82 practice practice NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 83 Bayesian bayesian JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 84 measures measure NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 85 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 86 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 87 complexity complexity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 88 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 89 fit fit JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 90 Deviance deviance NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 91 information information NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 92 criteria criterion NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 93 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 94 missing miss VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 95 data datum NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 96 models model NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 97 Version Version NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 98 1.4 1.4 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 99 User User NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 290 100 Manual Manual NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 1 The the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 2 construction construction NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 3 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 4 analysis analysis NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 5 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 6 epidemic epidemic NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 7 trees tree NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 8 with with IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 9 reference reference NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 10 to to IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 11 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 12 2001 2001 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 13 UK UK NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 14 foot foot NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 15 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 16 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 17 - - HYPH cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 18 mouth mouth NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 19 outbreak outbreak NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 20 Different different JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 21 epidemic epidemic NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 22 curves curve NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 23 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 24 severe severe JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 25 acute acute JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 26 respiratory respiratory JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 27 syndrome syndrome NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 28 reveal reveal VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 29 similar similar JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 30 impacts impact NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 31 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 32 control control NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 33 measures measure NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 34 Mitigation mitigation NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 35 measures measure NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 36 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 37 pandemic pandemic NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 38 influenza influenza NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 39 in in IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 40 Italy Italy NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 41 : : : cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 42 an an DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 43 individual individual NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 44 based base VBN cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 45 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 46 considering consider VBG cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 47 different different JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 48 scenarios scenario NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 49 Ecological ecological JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 50 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 51 immunological immunological JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 52 determinants determinant NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 53 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 54 influenza influenza NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 55 evolution evolution NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 56 A a DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 57 biological biological JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 58 model model NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 59 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 60 influenza influenza NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 61 transmission transmission NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 62 : : : cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 63 pandemic pandemic NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 64 planning planning NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 65 implications implication NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 66 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 67 asymptomatic asymptomatic JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 68 infection infection NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 69 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 291 70 immunity immunity NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 292 1 The the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 292 2 1918 1918 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 292 3 influenza influenza NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 292 4 pandemic pandemic NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 292 5 : : : cord-000317-pixbry0c 292 6 insights insight NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 292 7 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 292 8 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 292 9 21st 21st JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 292 10 century century NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 292 11 Spatial spatial JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 292 12 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 292 13 of of IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 292 14 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 292 15 1918 1918 CD cord-000317-pixbry0c 292 16 pandemic pandemic NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 292 17 R. R. NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 292 18 M. M. NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 292 19 Eggo Eggo NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 292 20 et et NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 293 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 293 2 thank thank VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 293 3 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 293 4 MRC MRC NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 293 5 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 293 6 studentship studentship NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 293 7 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 293 8 Center Center NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 293 9 support support NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 293 10 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 293 11 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 293 12 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 293 13 EU EU NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 293 14 FP7 FP7 NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 293 15 FluModCont FluModCont NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 293 16 project project NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 293 17 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 293 18 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 293 19 Bill Bill NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 293 20 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 293 21 Melinda Melinda NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 293 22 Gates Gates NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 293 23 Foundation Foundation NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 293 24 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 293 25 Research Research NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 293 26 Councils Councils NNPS cord-000317-pixbry0c 293 27 UK UK NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 293 28 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 293 29 the the DT cord-000317-pixbry0c 293 30 NIH NIH NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 293 31 MIDAS MIDAS NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 293 32 Initiative Initiative NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 293 33 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 293 34 research research NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 293 35 funding funding NN cord-000317-pixbry0c 293 36 . . . cord-000317-pixbry0c 294 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-000317-pixbry0c 294 2 also also RB cord-000317-pixbry0c 294 3 thank thank VBP cord-000317-pixbry0c 294 4 Pete Pete NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 294 5 Dodd Dodd NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 294 6 , , , cord-000317-pixbry0c 294 7 Judith Judith NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 294 8 Legrand Legrand NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 294 9 and and CC cord-000317-pixbry0c 294 10 James James NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 294 11 Truscott Truscott NNP cord-000317-pixbry0c 294 12 for for IN cord-000317-pixbry0c 294 13 useful useful JJ cord-000317-pixbry0c 294 14 discussions discussion NNS cord-000317-pixbry0c 294 15 . . .