id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-000317-pixbry0c	Eggo, Rosalind M.	Spatial dynamics of the 1918 influenza pandemic in England, Wales and the United States	2011-02-06		.txt	text/plain	6381	324	52	To better characterize the spread of the 1918 major wave, we fitted a range of city-to-city transmission models to mortality data collected for 246 population centres in England and Wales and 47 cities in the US. Using a gravity model for city-to-city contacts, we explored the effect of population size and distance on the spread of disease and tested assumptions regarding density dependence in connectivity between cities. We employed Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods to estimate parameters of the model for population, infectivity, distance and density dependence. For England and Wales, a model that estimated the degree of density dependence in connectivity between cities was preferable by deviance information criterion comparison. The low kernel power parameter estimates we have found in both England and Wales and the US suggests that long-distance interactions were important in spreading influenza between distant cities in both countries.	./cache/cord-000317-pixbry0c.txt	./txt/cord-000317-pixbry0c.txt