id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-354821-t7400ru5	Hermanowicz, Slav W	Simple model for Covid-19 epidemics - back-casting in China and forecasting in the US	2020-04-03		.txt	text/plain	3280	220	63	We sequentially estimated sets of model parameters (maximum number of cases K, growth rate r, and half-time t0) and the epidemic "end time" t95 (defined as the time when the number of cases, predicted or actual, reached 95% of the maximum). In our previous recent work (Hermanowicz 2020) , we used a simple logistic model to analyze the evolution of data on Covid-19 cases as reported in mainland China by the National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China (NHC 2020) . For each dataset of reported cumulative case numbers (China and the US), we estimated three parameters of the logistic model (maximum case number K, growth rate r, half-time t0) fitting model predictions to the data. 1101 In case of China, where the epidemic growth has essentially ended, the sequential estimation process (back-casting) simulated near-real time analysis of the dynamics.	./cache/cord-354821-t7400ru5.txt	./txt/cord-354821-t7400ru5.txt