id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-352635-yrq58n4k	Teles, Pedro	PREDICTING THE EVOLUTION OF COVID-19 IN PORTUGAL USING AN ADAPTED SIR MODEL PREVIOUSLY USED IN SOUTH KOREA FOR THE MERS OUTBREAK	2020-03-20		.txt	text/plain	3487	183	63	I then construct two or three different scenarios for the evolution of covid-19 in Portugal, considering both the effectiveness of the mitigation measurements implemented by the government, and the self-protective measures taken by the population, as explained in the South Korean model. Without control and self-protective measures, this model predicts that the figures of active cases of SARS-covid-2 would reach a staggering ~40,000 people It shows the importance of control and self-protecting measure to bring down the number of affected people by following the recommendations of the WHO and health authorities. This allowed me to fit the curve of current active cases in Portugal with a model, which I then use, by implementing the control measure parameters predicted in the model to predict the future number of cases, in three different scenarios (the outof-control scenario, a scenario in which the government is successful in applying control measures and citizens mildly adhere to self-protection measures, and a scenario in which the government fails to completely apply control measures, yet citizens still adhere to some measure of self-protection).	./cache/cord-352635-yrq58n4k.txt	./txt/cord-352635-yrq58n4k.txt