id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-279539-s2zv7hr4	Narayanan, C. S.	Modeling the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States	2020-05-05		.txt	text/plain	3812	228	65	We combine a cohort-based model that determines case fatality rates along with a modified logistic model that evaluates the case incidence to determine the number of deaths in all the US states over time; the model is also able to include the impact of interventions. The number of 34 deaths is a product of the case fatality rate (CFR) and the population confirmed to 35 have been infected [13] . The logistic model forecasts the slow initial rise, exponential growth, and eventual 87 decay of cumulative cases, but cannot account for the changes that result from parameters: the terminal number of cumulative cases (C), the CFR growth rate (r), and 94 the days to the inflection point (t i ). We used a cohort analysis approach to estimate CFR and a modified logistic model 198 (that explicitly accounts for the impact of mitigation efforts) to forecast case incidence 199 on the state level, and afterwards calculated mortality on the state and national levels.	./cache/cord-279539-s2zv7hr4.txt	./txt/cord-279539-s2zv7hr4.txt